Labour are in trouble in the red wall in the coming Council elections. They will never meet expectations, not just on this red wall poll, but others in recent weeks.
It was another recent redwall poll which first alerted us to the Tory surge, it seems red wall in particular are falling back in love with Tory’s again.
Sunak leading SKS in red wall
SKS fans please explain
I like to think of myself as PB's most tiresome poster, but your Starmer drearfest has well and truly knocked me off my perch
You are still PBs most tiresome poster in my eyes Pete 🙂
I can thoroughly recommend "Wicked Beyond Belief" by ST journalist Michael Bilton, if anyone wants to know the full story of the hunt for the Yorkshire Ripper. Incompetent Beyond Belief would be another suitable title.
Good thing they saved that title, it means it's available now.
We've got quite a lot of different experience on PB. Firefighters, doctors, teachers, etc.
Do we have any polis? I would be very interested to get a from the horse's mouth account of what's happening.
Police no, but adjacent. The Met are universally hated for many of the failings listed and others. The Commissioners made many of the right noises but there's a lot of inertia to overcome. But many of the failures are not just of the Met but policing in general, poor leadership, overworked etc. But having read elements of the report I just can't believe that some of the complaints didn't get actioned, signals to me that the Met need to have a totally independent professional standards that doesn't recruit from serving or ex officers in the force. That way it won't be beholden to the cliques and polotics . The Police federation also need to back the reforms, clear the dinosaurs/criminals so we can support the front line better type stuff. Their initial response was very poor, going for the bad apple line. Most of the people I've spoken to seem to think the report fair and hope it forces needed change especially around supervision and work loads.
I've always had my doubts about Keith's ability to appeal to the Red Wall given he did everything he could to cancel Brexit. Not that Rishi Rich appeals that much either but I think between the two a lot of Red Wall voters will probably stick with Con in the end.
If Labour can win back half the seats they lost in the Red Wall they'll be doing well IMO.
If Labour can't win back all the Red Wall seats it will need a lot of Remain and soft Leave seats to make up for that and get largest party
I can see them winning back maybe half the seats they lost in the Red Wall and they should pick up a few in Scotland. They will also probably do well in the Peoples Republic of Wales.
Labour will make substantial gains across the country when the election happens but the idea of a Labour landslide has always been fanciful.
It will be nip and tuck whether they can get a majority or are just the biggest party in a hung parliament.
Totally agree, Labour are never going to win by a landslide, I think it could be really close, scotland is massive for them, I wouldnt be at all surprised to see MPs like 30p Lee Anderson winning again, which probably says more about the great British electorate, than it does about him
People forget that the disaster in the Red Wall didn't happen overnight. People didn't just wake up on 12/12/19 and decide they were going to switch from Con to Lab. Labours disaster has been coming for years... the first warning signs were maybe apparent as far back as the 2005 election.
Having said that some voters will go back to Lab but will there be enough for Labour to take back the Red Wall? I have my doubts..
And if Rishi does manage to fix the boats issue the swingback gets much bigger and the seat loss in te red wall seats will be limited to a handful rather than a wipe out.
As I've been saying, the route for the Tories to get a 1992 style cling on to power victory exists where it didn't under Boris or Liz Truss. They need everything to go right for them though.
1992 is the story all Conservatives tell each other round the campfire, but something else needs to happen this time.
After Major took over, the polls were pretty much nip'n'tuck until the election- the average never got beyond Labour +4 and the biggest single poll lead I can find was Labour +10.
But the polls were wrong in a way that we now understand and correct for. There seems a decent chance that the Conservatives were ahead throughout, really. 1992 was a good win, but not a miracle.
Now, even the most favourable single poll is Labour +10 on the new rules. The average is about Labour +18.
Of course, there's time for that to change. But it will be one of the greatest political stories ever told.
But that's coming off the worst peace time PM and chancellor we've ever had in Liz Truss. There is a lot of rebuilding to be done in both the party and the brand. 18 months is a short timeframe but Labour aren't loved and Starmer was barely tolerated as "not Boris".
That's why the window exists, Labour haven't sealed the deal with voters mostly because no one knows what they're about other than "not the Tories" but if the Tories are looking competent and overseeing a growing economy and wages 18 months from now I'm not sure that "not the Tories" is a vote winner.
This was foreseeable for a long time, I've been saying for ages that Labour need a proper vision for what they want the UK to look like, is it Scandinavian style high tax, good public services, is it more like Southern Europe with middle taxes and poor services with neglected infrastructure outside of healthcare? What are Labour's plans to increase productivity and promote wealth creation, how will Labour help people move up the income ladder? There's been waffle documents but no vision articulated.
Winning by default is fine if you're up against a loathed party and PM, we may not be in that position in 18 months which means Labour will need to win by policy but as yet no one can name them. All we have are promises that they will be outlined while the government begins to set the agenda again.
And if Rishi does manage to fix the boats issue the swingback gets much bigger and the seat loss in te red wall seats will be limited to a handful rather than a wipe out.
As I've been saying, the route for the Tories to get a 1992 style cling on to power victory exists where it didn't under Boris or Liz Truss. They need everything to go right for them though.
1992 is the story all Conservatives tell each other round the campfire, but something else needs to happen this time.
After Major took over, the polls were pretty much nip'n'tuck until the election- the average never got beyond Labour +4 and the biggest single poll lead I can find was Labour +10.
But the polls were wrong in a way that we now understand and correct for. There seems a decent chance that the Conservatives were ahead throughout, really. 1992 was a good win, but not a miracle.
Now, even the most favourable single poll is Labour +10 on the new rules. The average is about Labour +18.
Of course, there's time for that to change. But it will be one of the greatest political stories ever told.
Despite being Prime Minister, Sunak doesn't yet have the level of fame of a Boris, or a Blair, or a Thatcher. The potential is there for him to shift the polls considerable during a General Election campaign.
The last two elections had results that didn't reflect anything like the polling a couple of months previously.
What's also becoming clear is that the more voters see Rishi the more thet take to him. His ratings go up when he's more visible, that's an asset very few politicians have, Starmer definitely doesn't have it. When people see him they think him a dreary man with no vision or dreams. It's a complete turn off.
Um, Starmer's approval ratings have improved over the last two years. His nadir was around the time of the Hartlepool by-election.
Sounds like the Tories really need to do everything they can to stop the boats then.
Nope, it's all about the cost of living.
How is that causing a swingback?
The voters don't like disorder and the boats coming over is disorder.
Now they are liking the tough talk from the government on it, but when it proves to be all fart and no follow through it will lead to an unwind.
Even if it a success, the voters will have seen prices go up nearly 20% over the last 2 years and pay hasn't matched that.
It's the economy, stupid.
But by the time the election arrives inflation will be back down to 1-2% and pay will still be rising at 5-7% a year because there is a skills and labour shortage that won't disappear for at least 3-6 years.
People have short memories.
“ by the time the election arrives inflation will be back down to 1-2%‘
Is there still a need for BoE to inflict more interest rate pain this week then?
I've always had my doubts about Keith's ability to appeal to the Red Wall given he did everything he could to cancel Brexit. Not that Rishi Rich appeals that much either but I think between the two a lot of Red Wall voters will probably stick with Con in the end.
If Labour can win back half the seats they lost in the Red Wall they'll be doing well IMO.
If Labour only win back half the seats in the Red Wall then Rishi will win the election. If you can't win back Stoke on Trent Central you are not going to win marginals like Nuneaton.
It is looking very much like a 1992 redux. So let's face it, if Labour can't win now, it is difficult to see past a permanent Conservative Government.
Labour are in trouble in the red wall in the coming Council elections. They will never meet expectations, not just on this red wall poll, but others in recent weeks.
It was another recent redwall poll which first alerted us to the Tory surge, it seems red wall in particular are falling back in love with Tory’s again.
Sunak leading SKS in red wall
SKS fans please explain
I like to think of myself as PB's most tiresome poster, but your Starmer drearfest has well and truly knocked me off my perch
It's a betting site Pete.
SKS trail Sunak in the red wall
Could be an outlier.
Could be very significant
Sorry to bore you 🙂
I don't believe your analysis of Starmer has been of any help to anyone's book, unless they have piled onto Starmer as next PM, comfortable in the knowledge that on your last outing you were four square behind a Corbyn victory.
No mate you are making stuff up again.
Anyway if you think I am not going to comment on R&Ws quite remarkable finding tonight that SKS is behind Sunak in the red wall despite Labour being 16% ahead you must be mad.
Didn't expect Corbyn to win in 2019 after the 2nd referendum sabbateur SKS nobbled Labour.
I am on NOM in 2024 though. Might have a nibble on Con Maj as odds are massive.
I've always had my doubts about Keith's ability to appeal to the Red Wall given he did everything he could to cancel Brexit. Not that Rishi Rich appeals that much either but I think between the two a lot of Red Wall voters will probably stick with Con in the end.
If Labour can win back half the seats they lost in the Red Wall they'll be doing well IMO.
If Labour only win back half the seats in the Red Wall then Rishi will win the election. If you can't win back Stoke on Trent Central you are not going to win marginals like Nuneaton.
It is looking very much like a 1992 redux. So let's face it, if Labour can't win now, it is difficult to see past a permanent Conservative Government.
I've always had my doubts about Keith's ability to appeal to the Red Wall given he did everything he could to cancel Brexit. Not that Rishi Rich appeals that much either but I think between the two a lot of Red Wall voters will probably stick with Con in the end.
If Labour can win back half the seats they lost in the Red Wall they'll be doing well IMO.
If Labour only win back half the seats in the Red Wall then Rishi will win the election. If you can't win back Stoke on Trent Central you are not going to win marginals like Nuneaton.
It is looking very much like a 1992 redux. So let's face it, if Labour can't win now, it is difficult to see past a permanent Conservative Government.
Don't worry, only a thousand years.
I don't have to worry past 20 years. A depressing thought that it is wall to wall corrupt Tories until the bitter end.
Sounds like the Tories really need to do everything they can to stop the boats then.
Nope, it's all about the cost of living.
How is that causing a swingback?
The voters don't like disorder and the boats coming over is disorder.
Now they are liking the tough talk from the government on it, but when it proves to be all fart and no follow through it will lead to an unwind.
Even if it a success, the voters will have seen prices go up nearly 20% over the last 2 years and pay hasn't matched that.
It's the economy, stupid.
But by the time the election arrives inflation will be back down to 1-2% and pay will still be rising at 5-7% a year because there is a skills and labour shortage that won't disappear for at least 3-6 years.
People have short memories.
“because there is a skills and labour shortage that won't disappear for at least 3-6 years.”
You are aware Hunts budget last week allowed a lot of these skills and Labour shortages to be filled now via foreign workers, most notably Albanian’s coming to work in the building sector? True, no measure yet for help with the hospitality industry, but this will come before end of the next 12 months I am sure.
There has been very little coverage of this change announced last week in the media, but it definitely happened.
And if Rishi does manage to fix the boats issue the swingback gets much bigger and the seat loss in te red wall seats will be limited to a handful rather than a wipe out.
As I've been saying, the route for the Tories to get a 1992 style cling on to power victory exists where it didn't under Boris or Liz Truss. They need everything to go right for them though.
1992 is the story all Conservatives tell each other round the campfire, but something else needs to happen this time.
After Major took over, the polls were pretty much nip'n'tuck until the election- the average never got beyond Labour +4 and the biggest single poll lead I can find was Labour +10.
But the polls were wrong in a way that we now understand and correct for. There seems a decent chance that the Conservatives were ahead throughout, really. 1992 was a good win, but not a miracle.
Now, even the most favourable single poll is Labour +10 on the new rules. The average is about Labour +18.
Of course, there's time for that to change. But it will be one of the greatest political stories ever told.
Despite being Prime Minister, Sunak doesn't yet have the level of fame of a Boris, or a Blair, or a Thatcher. The potential is there for him to shift the polls considerable during a General Election campaign.
The last two elections had results that didn't reflect anything like the polling a couple of months previously.
What's also becoming clear is that the more voters see Rishi the more thet take to him. His ratings go up when he's more visible, that's an asset very few politicians have, Starmer definitely doesn't have it. When people see him they think him a dreary man with no vision or dreams. It's a complete turn off.
Um, Starmer's approval ratings have improved over the last two years. His nadir was around the time of the Hartlepool by-election.
Which coincides with when Boris and the Tories fell apart. He's accepted as the "well he's not Boris" option.
I've always had my doubts about Keith's ability to appeal to the Red Wall given he did everything he could to cancel Brexit. Not that Rishi Rich appeals that much either but I think between the two a lot of Red Wall voters will probably stick with Con in the end.
If Labour can win back half the seats they lost in the Red Wall they'll be doing well IMO.
If Labour only win back half the seats in the Red Wall then Rishi will win the election. If you can't win back Stoke on Trent Central you are not going to win marginals like Nuneaton.
It is looking very much like a 1992 redux. So let's face it, if Labour can't win now, it is difficult to see past a permanent Conservative Government.
Don't worry, only a thousand years.
A thousand year Reich, for those who thought Holy Roman Empire was so last thread
I've always had my doubts about Keith's ability to appeal to the Red Wall given he did everything he could to cancel Brexit. Not that Rishi Rich appeals that much either but I think between the two a lot of Red Wall voters will probably stick with Con in the end.
If Labour can win back half the seats they lost in the Red Wall they'll be doing well IMO.
If Labour can't win back all the Red Wall seats it will need a lot of Remain and soft Leave seats to make up for that and get largest party
I can see them winning back maybe half the seats they lost in the Red Wall and they should pick up a few in Scotland. They will also probably do well in the Peoples Republic of Wales.
Labour will make substantial gains across the country when the election happens but the idea of a Labour landslide has always been fanciful.
It will be nip and tuck whether they can get a majority or are just the biggest party in a hung parliament.
Totally agree, Labour are never going to win by a landslide, I think it could be really close, scotland is massive for them, I wouldnt be at all surprised to see MPs like 30p Lee Anderson winning again, which probably says more about the great British electorate, than it does about him
People forget that the disaster in the Red Wall didn't happen overnight. People didn't just wake up on 12/12/19 and decide they were going to switch from Con to Lab. Labours disaster has been coming for years... the first warning signs were maybe apparent as far back as the 2005 election.
Having said that some voters will go back to Lab but will there be enough for Labour to take back the Red Wall? I have my doubts..
I suspect there will be some variation across the Red Wall. Teesside and County Durham will be interesting as Ben Houchen, the local Tory mayor (Tees Valley) has done exceedingly well to be reelected with a landslide and Rishi is relatively local at Richmond. Houchen was a notable Sunak supporter duting the leadership election. This area will be a real fulcrum at the election. Not sure how Sir Keir will fare in this neighbourhood.
I've always had my doubts about Keith's ability to appeal to the Red Wall given he did everything he could to cancel Brexit. Not that Rishi Rich appeals that much either but I think between the two a lot of Red Wall voters will probably stick with Con in the end.
If Labour can win back half the seats they lost in the Red Wall they'll be doing well IMO.
If Labour only win back half the seats in the Red Wall then Rishi will win the election. If you can't win back Stoke on Trent Central you are not going to win marginals like Nuneaton.
It is looking very much like a 1992 redux. So let's face it, if Labour can't win now, it is difficult to see past a permanent Conservative Government.
This isn't Japan, they won't be able to sustain it forever. 2019 was just such a genuinely impressive win that it has made things so much more difficult.
If Labour don't manage it the response will be very interesting - Corbyn got another go, but did not have 4-5 years of run up, and was ridiculed for claiming to be the real winner when he had in fact lost (despite definitely doing much better than expected, which was to his credit), so would Starmerites try the same move?
British Army’s £5.5bn Ajax armoured vehicle project delayed yet again. Now not likely to see service much before 2030. So a mere 15 years from order placed to deployment. But MoD still pays General Dynamics large cheque. Because delays down to MoD’s 1,200 specification changes
I've always had my doubts about Keith's ability to appeal to the Red Wall given he did everything he could to cancel Brexit. Not that Rishi Rich appeals that much either but I think between the two a lot of Red Wall voters will probably stick with Con in the end.
If Labour can win back half the seats they lost in the Red Wall they'll be doing well IMO.
If Labour only win back half the seats in the Red Wall then Rishi will win the election. If you can't win back Stoke on Trent Central you are not going to win marginals like Nuneaton.
It is looking very much like a 1992 redux. So let's face it, if Labour can't win now, it is difficult to see past a permanent Conservative Government.
This isn't Japan, they won't be able to sustain it forever. 2019 was just such a genuinely impressive win that it has made things so much more difficult.
If Labour don't manage it the response will be very interesting - Corbyn got another go, but did not have 4-5 years of run up, and was ridiculed for claiming to be the real winner when he had in fact lost (despite definitely doing much better than expected, which was to his credit), so would Starmerites try the same move?
My fear is Labour would swing leftwards and Rayner would become leader. Who I'm pretty convinced would be an election loser. If Rishi beats Starmer, he'd definitely beat Rayner.
Hello from the executive lounge of Hilton Wembley. I am going to have to do some work this year to hit the threshold to keep my Diamond status going. This is stay 5 this year and I need 30. As I get so much value in upgrades with my status I can see myself doing the hotel equivalent of an airlines points run to ensure I keep at this level.
Labour are in trouble in the red wall in the coming Council elections. They will never meet expectations, not just on this red wall poll, but others in recent weeks.
It was another recent redwall poll which first alerted us to the Tory surge, it seems red wall in particular are falling back in love with Tory’s again.
Sunak leading SKS in red wall
SKS fans please explain
I like to think of myself as PB's most tiresome poster, but your Starmer drearfest has well and truly knocked me off my perch
You are still PBs most tiresome poster in my eyes Pete 🙂
It's one Poll. Can't believe everyone is suddenly thinking Lab won't have the next PM.
I don't think it's just that. I think people can see the start of a very slow a and gradual shift back to the government at more or less the moment you expect swingback to start kicking in...
I do myself think Starmer will be the next PM but it's going to be hard faught election and Labour will need to up their game in the way @MaxPB has outlined.
I've always had my doubts about Keith's ability to appeal to the Red Wall given he did everything he could to cancel Brexit. Not that Rishi Rich appeals that much either but I think between the two a lot of Red Wall voters will probably stick with Con in the end.
If Labour can win back half the seats they lost in the Red Wall they'll be doing well IMO.
If Labour only win back half the seats in the Red Wall then Rishi will win the election. If you can't win back Stoke on Trent Central you are not going to win marginals like Nuneaton.
It is looking very much like a 1992 redux. So let's face it, if Labour can't win now, it is difficult to see past a permanent Conservative Government.
What the Tory’s do so well is cling on to power when they have it, by creating these 1992, 2024 opportunities for themselves. Time for change? The voters have had the change the want - as Michael Hestletine said just days ago, the adults are back in charge again. Why dump a perfectly delivering government for a leap in the dark with a bunch of inexperienced politicians who’ve been out power nearly fifteen years?
One day Tories might even be hungry enough for power so remove a newly elected leader only about 5 weeks in. Can you imagine Starmer dumped so that Phillipson or Nandi can have a go? No? That’s the difference between parties of government and party’s of opposition.
It's one Poll. Can't believe everyone is suddenly thinking Lab won't have the next PM.
Went to see Skerryvore* last Friday with my brother and I wonder if he is in a similar place to you BJO. He - like me - is an ex-Labour councillor. He - not like me - is still on the left and basically thinks Starmer will be less ban-hammery than the Tories but will change precisely nothing.
Whilst I agree that nothing will change, I think there is a valid reason why - change is too sodding difficult to achieve. Starmer is very likely to be a profound disappointment to anyone who actually wants to see things done differently as he is likely to be status quo ante - same as now without the incompetence and massive corruption.
*Proper Scottish. Rock/Folk fusion with twin bagpipers a fiddle and an accordion as well as guitar/bass/keyboards/drums. Absolutely mega, especially when they did (how do I pronounce this) Soraidh Slan complete with the local high school pipe & drum band on stage. *very* loud and who said you can't rock with bagpipes?
Labour are in trouble in the red wall in the coming Council elections. They will never meet expectations, not just on this red wall poll, but others in recent weeks.
It was another recent redwall poll which first alerted us to the Tory surge, it seems red wall in particular are falling back in love with Tory’s again.
Sunak leading SKS in red wall
SKS fans please explain
I like to think of myself as PB's most tiresome poster, but your Starmer drearfest has well and truly knocked me off my perch
You are still PBs most tiresome poster in my eyes Pete 🙂
Ah but is he a fascist like I am apparently...?
No. You are clearly more fascist than Pete. Rather than saying vive Le difference, I’ll take you on at a game of democracy, what comes across is you genuinely hate your opponents and their views so much, and wish them gone.
Labour are in trouble in the red wall in the coming Council elections. They will never meet expectations, not just on this red wall poll, but others in recent weeks.
It was another recent redwall poll which first alerted us to the Tory surge, it seems red wall in particular are falling back in love with Tory’s again.
Sunak leading SKS in red wall
SKS fans please explain
I like to think of myself as PB's most tiresome poster, but your Starmer drearfest has well and truly knocked me off my perch
You are still PBs most tiresome poster in my eyes Pete 🙂
Thanks Rabbit I was counting on you. But rest assured you will take my crown one day soon. You are creeping up on the rail, I better keep my wits about me.
Labour are in trouble in the red wall in the coming Council elections. They will never meet expectations, not just on this red wall poll, but others in recent weeks.
It was another recent redwall poll which first alerted us to the Tory surge, it seems red wall in particular are falling back in love with Tory’s again.
Sunak leading SKS in red wall
SKS fans please explain
I like to think of myself as PB's most tiresome poster, but your Starmer drearfest has well and truly knocked me off my perch
You are still PBs most tiresome poster in my eyes Pete 🙂
Ah but is he a fascist like I am apparently...?
No. You are clearly more fascist than Pete. Rather than saying vive Le difference, I’ll take you on at a game of democracy, what comes across is you genuinely hate your opponents and their views so much, and wish them gone.
What makes you think I hate my opponents? I made disparaging remarks about the DUP - in what universe are they my opponents? Nor is that me attacking unionists or unionism over there. I have posted many times about how much I love Norniron - unionism is far broader than the current DUP death cult which has only had prime position for short period.
It's one Poll. Can't believe everyone is suddenly thinking Lab won't have the next PM.
I don't think it's just that. I think people can see the start of a very slow a and gradual shift back to the government at more or less the moment you expect swingback to start kicking in...
I do myself think Starmer will be the next PM but it's going to be hard faught election and Labour will need to up their game in the way @MaxPB has outlined.
It might be a bit early to say it, but we might look back at this period, this week in particular, as when the polls turned and the penny dropped that Sunak hanging on to a majority John Major style, became a real opportunity, whilst Labours dream of a majority of their own died.
Not as bad as unlawfully proroguing parliament but still pretty bad.
It is a handy precursor for what is to come. If, as I suspect, Kate Forbes wins the crown, we can expect a reception at FMQ as Jezbollah got for PMQs...
Labour are in trouble in the red wall in the coming Council elections. They will never meet expectations, not just on this red wall poll, but others in recent weeks.
It was another recent redwall poll which first alerted us to the Tory surge, it seems red wall in particular are falling back in love with Tory’s again.
Sunak leading SKS in red wall
SKS fans please explain
I like to think of myself as PB's most tiresome poster, but your Starmer drearfest has well and truly knocked me off my perch
You are still PBs most tiresome poster in my eyes Pete 🙂
Ah but is he a fascist like I am apparently...?
No. You are clearly more fascist than Pete. Rather than saying vive Le difference, I’ll take you on at a game of democracy, what comes across is you genuinely hate your opponents and their views so much, and wish them gone.
What makes you think I hate my opponents? I made disparaging remarks about the DUP - in what universe are they my opponents? Nor is that me attacking unionists or unionism over there. I have posted many times about how much I love Norniron - unionism is far broader than the current DUP death cult which has only had prime position for short period.
I’m sorry. But I can’t help getting this “intense” impression of you and your politics. 🤷♀️
Not as bad as unlawfully proroguing parliament but still pretty bad.
It is a handy precursor for what is to come. If, as I suspect, Kate Forbes wins the crown, we can expect a reception at FMQ as Jezbollah got for PMQs...
A lot of them do appear to have been very certain she would not win (which may well be the case) by how firm they were in criticising her, which is harder to walk back from.
It's one Poll. Can't believe everyone is suddenly thinking Lab won't have the next PM.
I don't think it's just that. I think people can see the start of a very slow a and gradual shift back to the government at more or less the moment you expect swingback to start kicking in...
I do myself think Starmer will be the next PM but it's going to be hard faught election and Labour will need to up their game in the way @MaxPB has outlined.
It might be a bit early to say it, but we might look back at this period, this week in particularly, as when the polls turned and the penny dropped that Sunak hanging on to a majority John Major style, became a real opportunity, whilst Labours dream of a majority of their own died.
Betting that Dishi is Oh Yes! is definitely the value bet. Both John Major and Rishi Sunak are decent human beings. Both became leaders of a Tory party which was increasingly frootloop and decreasingly worthy of anyone voting for.
So the question remains whether this is 1991 and Starmer is Kinnochio, or whether this is 1996 and Sunak is out of road and reliant on the support of the UUP ERG...
It is a bizarre own goal of a story. Did no one advise how it would look?
Oh, I think that they knew how it would look, but they just thought they would try their arm anyway and see if they could postpone the first FMQs until after the Easter recess. This is just the latest example, remember it was only a few weeks ago that the SNP tried to ban the media from having access to the SNP Leadership hustings.
Labour are in trouble in the red wall in the coming Council elections. They will never meet expectations, not just on this red wall poll, but others in recent weeks.
It was another recent redwall poll which first alerted us to the Tory surge, it seems red wall in particular are falling back in love with Tory’s again.
Sunak leading SKS in red wall
SKS fans please explain
I like to think of myself as PB's most tiresome poster, but your Starmer drearfest has well and truly knocked me off my perch
You are still PBs most tiresome poster in my eyes Pete 🙂
Ah but is he a fascist like I am apparently...?
No. You are clearly more fascist than Pete. Rather than saying vive Le difference, I’ll take you on at a game of democracy, what comes across is you genuinely hate your opponents and their views so much, and wish them gone.
What makes you think I hate my opponents? I made disparaging remarks about the DUP - in what universe are they my opponents? Nor is that me attacking unionists or unionism over there. I have posted many times about how much I love Norniron - unionism is far broader than the current DUP death cult which has only had prime position for short period.
I’m sorry. But I can’t help getting this “intense” impression of you and your politics. 🤷♀️
As someone from NI, I find it interesting to see the reaction to the DUP stance.
The problem, for many not from there, is that in their mental map, the Unionist politicians job is to deliver the unionist vote to keep the Peace Process going.
The actual wishes of the Unionists are to be disregarded as unimportant. They are, after all, a basket of deplorables.
The DUP have figured out that being a face eating leopard is an alternative to have their faces eaten.
I've always had my doubts about Keith's ability to appeal to the Red Wall given he did everything he could to cancel Brexit. Not that Rishi Rich appeals that much either but I think between the two a lot of Red Wall voters will probably stick with Con in the end.
If Labour can win back half the seats they lost in the Red Wall they'll be doing well IMO.
If Labour only win back half the seats in the Red Wall then Rishi will win the election. If you can't win back Stoke on Trent Central you are not going to win marginals like Nuneaton.
It is looking very much like a 1992 redux. So let's face it, if Labour can't win now, it is difficult to see past a permanent Conservative Government.
Nah. The voters have basically decided they want a change of govt. Rishi's job is to prevent a landslide and fend off the return of Boris. So far, so good.
Labour are in trouble in the red wall in the coming Council elections. They will never meet expectations, not just on this red wall poll, but others in recent weeks.
It was another recent redwall poll which first alerted us to the Tory surge, it seems red wall in particular are falling back in love with Tory’s again.
Sunak leading SKS in red wall
SKS fans please explain
I like to think of myself as PB's most tiresome poster, but your Starmer drearfest has well and truly knocked me off my perch
You are still PBs most tiresome poster in my eyes Pete 🙂
Ah but is he a fascist like I am apparently...?
No. You are clearly more fascist than Pete. Rather than saying vive Le difference, I’ll take you on at a game of democracy, what comes across is you genuinely hate your opponents and their views so much, and wish them gone.
What makes you think I hate my opponents? I made disparaging remarks about the DUP - in what universe are they my opponents? Nor is that me attacking unionists or unionism over there. I have posted many times about how much I love Norniron - unionism is far broader than the current DUP death cult which has only had prime position for short period.
I’m sorry. But I can’t help getting this “intense” impression of you and your politics. 🤷♀️
I don't see the need to expend sufficient energy to hate anyone. Especially people more deserving of pity. I have a moral standards bar which I apply - and today's Tory party is immoral on a fundamental level. I see so many of their politician in a poor light because they are so poor. But that isn't unique to the Tories. I have attacked Labour plenty and my current LDs are run by Sir Ed Nice who is about as effective as a wet blanket.
But he isn't disgustingly corrupt and immoral like so many of today's Tories. And note that I still post positively about Dishi Sunak even though he is sadly so far out of his depth.
The police haven't been trusted for ages and its not just the met....who cannot remember one of their own nightjack advising never talk to the police without a solictior even if you are only a witness
It's one Poll. Can't believe everyone is suddenly thinking Lab won't have the next PM.
Went to see Skerryvore* last Friday with my brother and I wonder if he is in a similar place to you BJO. He - like me - is an ex-Labour councillor. He - not like me - is still on the left and basically thinks Starmer will be less ban-hammery than the Tories but will change precisely nothing.
Whilst I agree that nothing will change, I think there is a valid reason why - change is too sodding difficult to achieve. Starmer is very likely to be a profound disappointment to anyone who actually wants to see things done differently as he is likely to be status quo ante - same as now without the incompetence and massive corruption.
*Proper Scottish. Rock/Folk fusion with twin bagpipers a fiddle and an accordion as well as guitar/bass/keyboards/drums. Absolutely mega, especially when they did (how do I pronounce this) Soraidh Slan complete with the local high school pipe & drum band on stage. *very* loud and who said you can't rock with bagpipes?
I think Starmer will different from Sunak in his priorities. It's hard to see Starmer implementing a policy "for families" targeted mainly at higher rate tax payers.
It's one Poll. Can't believe everyone is suddenly thinking Lab won't have the next PM.
It is looking very, very bleak for those of us who are tired of the Conservatives. You have a point that Sunak is a 10/10 performer whilst Starmer barely makes a 0. There is more to it than just Starmer's poor performance, we are just not a left of centre nation. Sunak-Tories have quite cleverly positioned themselves as both centre right and extreme right which Hoovers up the 40 per cent they need for a permanent reasonable majority. The one positive is when Sunak prevails Johnson is finished
It's one Poll. Can't believe everyone is suddenly thinking Lab won't have the next PM.
I don't think it's just that. I think people can see the start of a very slow a and gradual shift back to the government at more or less the moment you expect swingback to start kicking in...
I do myself think Starmer will be the next PM but it's going to be hard faught election and Labour will need to up their game in the way @MaxPB has outlined.
It might be a bit early to say it, but we might look back at this period, this week in particularly, as when the polls turned and the penny dropped that Sunak hanging on to a majority John Major style, became a real opportunity, whilst Labours dream of a majority of their own died.
Betting that Dishi is Oh Yes! is definitely the value bet. Both John Major and Rishi Sunak are decent human beings. Both became leaders of a Tory party which was increasingly frootloop and decreasingly worthy of anyone voting for.
So the question remains whether this is 1991 and Starmer is Kinnochio, or whether this is 1996 and Sunak is out of road and reliant on the support of the UUP ERG...
You are right on this one. Starmer does fit the “Phillipson/Nandy/Streeting could never have won without Starmer hauling the party back to respectability after the Corbyn years” role perfectly.
The Met make South Yorkshire Police look competent and of the highest probity.
SYP did catch their Ripper, eventually. The Met didn't.
SYP weren't even after him. That was West Yorkshire Police. Two alert and inquisitive officers in South Yorkshire caught him acting suspiciously. Then found him tooled up and dressed for the occasion. Ironically. The photofit was the very spit of him. But WYP were after someone from Sunderland.
And they would have got their man too if bastard facts and the actual culprit being in custody hadn’t got in the way.
It's one Poll. Can't believe everyone is suddenly thinking Lab won't have the next PM.
It is looking very, very bleak for those of us who are tired of the Conservatives. You have a point that Sunak is a 10/10 performer whilst Starmer barely makes a 0. There is more to it than just Starmer's poor performance, we are just not a left of centre nation. Sunak-Tories have quite cleverly positioned themselves as both centre right and extreme right which Hoovers up the 40 per cent they need for a permanent reasonable majority. The one positive is when Sunak prevails Johnson is finished
You are forgetting here that the tories are left of centre currently....high tax and high public spending. Those of us that believe in economic liberalism there is no one to vote for
This morning, we were being told not to take too much hood of "new pollsters" yet one statistic on tonight's Redfield & Wilton "Red Wall" polling and you'd think the Conservatives had already won the next election. The headline VI still shows a swing of 12.5% from Conservative to Labour since 2019.
Survation (apparently the Gold Standard) still shows a solid 15-point Labour lead and a swing of 13.5% since the last election. YouGov will be interesting - their last poll had a 19-point Labour lead.
Glancing through the Deltapoll tables, I'm struck by a 31% Conservative number in Scotland but looking at the Deltapoll and R&W tables together, among 55-64 year olds, R&W has Labour ahead 40-31 but Deltapoll has the Conservatives ahead 44-35 while among those aged 65+.(Deltapoll unweighted sample 235, R&W unweighted sample 331), Deltapoll has the Conservatives ahead 49-32 while R&W has it tied at 35.
It's those variations which make such a difference to headline poll numbers when you're dealing with these various surveys. I don't dismiss Redfield & Wilton simply because they are "new" - they thoughtfully publish good tables and allow me to do my England sub sample. As to the accuracy of their polling and sampling, time will tell (it always does).
It's one Poll. Can't believe everyone is suddenly thinking Lab won't have the next PM.
I don't think it's just that. I think people can see the start of a very slow a and gradual shift back to the government at more or less the moment you expect swingback to start kicking in...
I do myself think Starmer will be the next PM but it's going to be hard faught election and Labour will need to up their game in the way @MaxPB has outlined.
It might be a bit early to say it, but we might look back at this period, this week in particularly, as when the polls turned and the penny dropped that Sunak hanging on to a majority John Major style, became a real opportunity, whilst Labours dream of a majority of their own died.
Betting that Dishi is Oh Yes! is definitely the value bet. Both John Major and Rishi Sunak are decent human beings. Both became leaders of a Tory party which was increasingly frootloop and decreasingly worthy of anyone voting for.
So the question remains whether this is 1991 and Starmer is Kinnochio, or whether this is 1996 and Sunak is out of road and reliant on the support of the UUP ERG...
You are right on this one. Starmer does fit the “Phillipson/Nandy/Streeting could never have won without Starmer hauling the party back to respectability after the Corbyn years” role perfectly.
Potentially. And the door remains open to voters voting once again for mentalists like Jonathan Gullis. I remain hopeful that isn't the case, primarily because of what it says about us as a society if they do.
Politics used to be disagreements about policy. You could dislike Blair / Major / Cameron etc wthout knowing them to be crooks and shysters. Now? Its survival of the moral, and *both* sides consider themselves to be the moralists standing up to disgusting opposition. Even the ones who are openly corrupt / dishonest / jingoistic.
On inflation, I'm reliably informed that McDonald's just has or is about to cut the price of its meals in the UK. It's the first price cut they've made since 2021 apparently.
It's one Poll. Can't believe everyone is suddenly thinking Lab won't have the next PM.
It is looking very, very bleak for those of us who are tired of the Conservatives. You have a point that Sunak is a 10/10 performer whilst Starmer barely makes a 0. There is more to it than just Starmer's poor performance, we are just not a left of centre nation. Sunak-Tories have quite cleverly positioned themselves as both centre right and extreme right which Hoovers up the 40 per cent they need for a permanent reasonable majority. The one positive is when Sunak prevails Johnson is finished
You are right. Sunak and the Tories revival is being built on the basis of what he has announced to stop dinghies crossing the channel, which kind of gazumps in voters minds the problem as the party in power taking years to process claims, and the economic plan is built upon 200k+ of immigration each year anyway, hence the loosening of restrictions on foreign workers last week to fill key skill shortages and vacancies.
The country that brexited hasn’t stopped wanting to pull of drawbridge up even further. Labour and Starmer are simply out of touch out of step with the voters is why they are now struggling.
Then again, the Tories and their dog whistle war room have been very clever to fill hotels up with the asylum seekers. If you can’t take your kids to the hotel complex leisure pool anymore, is this because an incompetent government can’t process claims, or the fact the boats keep coming?
This morning, we were being told not to take too much hood of "new pollsters" yet one statistic on tonight's Redfield & Wilton "Red Wall" polling and you'd think the Conservatives had already won the next election. The headline VI still shows a swing of 12.5% from Conservative to Labour since 2019.
Survation (apparently the Gold Standard) still shows a solid 15-point Labour lead and a swing of 13.5% since the last election. YouGov will be interesting - their last poll had a 19-point Labour lead.
Glancing through the Deltapoll tables, I'm struck by a 31% Conservative number in Scotland but looking at the Deltapoll and R&W tables together, among 55-64 year olds, R&W has Labour ahead 40-31 but Deltapoll has the Conservatives ahead 44-35 while among those aged 65+.(Deltapoll unweighted sample 235, R&W unweighted sample 331), Deltapoll has the Conservatives ahead 49-32 while R&W has it tied at 35.
It's those variations which make such a difference to headline poll numbers when you're dealing with these various surveys. I don't dismiss Redfield & Wilton simply because they are "new" - they thoughtfully publish good tables and allow me to do my England sub sample. As to the accuracy of their polling and sampling, time will tell (it always does).
On days like this, I wish we had PB archives from 1995-7...
Labour are in trouble in the red wall in the coming Council elections. They will never meet expectations, not just on this red wall poll, but others in recent weeks.
It was another recent redwall poll which first alerted us to the Tory surge, it seems red wall in particular are falling back in love with Tory’s again.
Sunak leading SKS in red wall
SKS fans please explain
I like to think of myself as PB's most tiresome poster, but your Starmer drearfest has well and truly knocked me off my perch
You are still PBs most tiresome poster in my eyes Pete 🙂
Ah but is he a fascist like I am apparently...?
No. You are clearly more fascist than Pete. Rather than saying vive Le difference, I’ll take you on at a game of democracy, what comes across is you genuinely hate your opponents and their views so much, and wish them gone.
What makes you think I hate my opponents? I made disparaging remarks about the DUP - in what universe are they my opponents? Nor is that me attacking unionists or unionism over there. I have posted many times about how much I love Norniron - unionism is far broader than the current DUP death cult which has only had prime position for short period.
I’m sorry. But I can’t help getting this “intense” impression of you and your politics. 🤷♀️
As someone from NI, I find it interesting to see the reaction to the DUP stance.
The problem, for many not from there, is that in their mental map, the Unionist politicians job is to deliver the unionist vote to keep the Peace Process going.
The actual wishes of the Unionists are to be disregarded as unimportant. They are, after all, a basket of deplorables.
The DUP have figured out that being a face eating leopard is an alternative to have their faces eaten.
Welcome to the Peace Process.
I don't think the wishes of unionists should be disregarded as unimportant. I do think the DUP cannot act like caricatures of unionists and then complain that people treat them like caricatures, or treat every criticism of them as 'you're not from round 'ere'. That's the tone and image they've chosen as electorally more successful, they have to live with any consequences of that. And acting like a parody of the 'never never never never' speech does have consequences, since it makes claims they are open to compromise look phony (but in their defence at least they did take their time this time, so we can assume they really did at least consider it).
It's no one's fault but their own if SF of all people come across as the more reasonable of the two.
On inflation, I'm reliably informed that McDonald's just has or is about to cut the price of its meals in the UK. It's the first price cut they've made since 2021 apparently.
On inflation, I'm reliably informed that McDonald's just has or is about to cut the price of its meals in the UK. It's the first price cut they've made since 2021 apparently.
A new menu is due next week, so presumably then.
Yes I expect so. It's a good sign that food inflation has begun falling though. They wouldn't cut their prices unless they were sure their supply chain was shifting down in cost.
On inflation, I'm reliably informed that McDonald's just has or is about to cut the price of its meals in the UK. It's the first price cut they've made since 2021 apparently.
A new menu is due next week, so presumably then.
Yes I expect so. It's a good sign that food inflation has begun falling though. They wouldn't cut their prices unless they were sure their supply chain was shifting down in cost.
Or that their market is shrinking thanks to lacki of cash.
What we aren't told is how much the food will shrink in size.
On inflation, I'm reliably informed that McDonald's just has or is about to cut the price of its meals in the UK. It's the first price cut they've made since 2021 apparently.
On inflation, I'm reliably informed that McDonald's just has or is about to cut the price of its meals in the UK. It's the first price cut they've made since 2021 apparently.
A new menu is due next week, so presumably then.
Yes I expect so. It's a good sign that food inflation has begun falling though. They wouldn't cut their prices unless they were sure their supply chain was shifting down in cost.
Or that their market is shrinking thanks to lacki of cash.
What we aren't told is how much the food will shrink in size.
Nah, McDonald's have a set global standard for ingredients used which is why the price varies a lot from country to country. The big mac index is still pretty useful for this reason.
It's one Poll. Can't believe everyone is suddenly thinking Lab won't have the next PM.
I don't think it's just that. I think people can see the start of a very slow a and gradual shift back to the government at more or less the moment you expect swingback to start kicking in...
I do myself think Starmer will be the next PM but it's going to be hard faught election and Labour will need to up their game in the way @MaxPB has outlined.
It might be a bit early to say it, but we might look back at this period, this week in particularly, as when the polls turned and the penny dropped that Sunak hanging on to a majority John Major style, became a real opportunity, whilst Labours dream of a majority of their own died.
Betting that Dishi is Oh Yes! is definitely the value bet. Both John Major and Rishi Sunak are decent human beings. Both became leaders of a Tory party which was increasingly frootloop and decreasingly worthy of anyone voting for.
So the question remains whether this is 1991 and Starmer is Kinnochio, or whether this is 1996 and Sunak is out of road and reliant on the support of the UUP ERG...
You are right on this one. Starmer does fit the “Phillipson/Nandy/Streeting could never have won without Starmer hauling the party back to respectability after the Corbyn years” role perfectly.
Potentially. And the door remains open to voters voting once again for mentalists like Jonathan Gullis. I remain hopeful that isn't the case, primarily because of what it says about us as a society if they do.
Politics used to be disagreements about policy. You could dislike Blair / Major / Cameron etc wthout knowing them to be crooks and shysters. Now? Its survival of the moral, and *both* sides consider themselves to be the moralists standing up to disgusting opposition. Even the ones who are openly corrupt / dishonest / jingoistic.
“ Politics used to be disagreements about policy. You could dislike Blair / Major / Cameron etc wthout knowing them to be crooks and shysters. Now? Its survival of the moral, and *both* sides consider themselves to be the moralists standing up to disgusting opposition. Even the ones who are openly corrupt / dishonest / jingoistic.”
And this little dossier of paragraph is your defence against the charge you turned to fascism?
Why didn’t you just say, young lady, when I was young like you are now, my heart was just like an open book, so I used to say, live and let live. But when this ever changing world in which we live in, makes you give in and cry - say live and let die.
The Met make South Yorkshire Police look competent and of the highest probity.
SYP did catch their Ripper, eventually. The Met didn't.
Wasn't that after several years looking for someone with a Geordie accent?
Also caught not as a result of the huge hunt, but via good old fashioned coppering. Sutcliffe was arrested with a prostitute, and made an excuse about needing a pee to try to discard a hammer etc. old fashioned plod gets suspicious, goes and checks and viola, the reign of terror is done. The idiot who sent the Geordie Jack tape rightly got put away as his actions almost certainly caused lives to be lost. However, while it’s easy to criticise the force and the investigation, they were drowning in data in an age before routine computer databases. Plus DNA was not available as a technique. He would be caught far sooner now.
If the head of steam building over the last few days for the glittering star of glorious Rishi is as strong in the country as it is on PB, then Labour are indeed toast and have as much chance of winning power as the DUP have of saying 'yes, okay, that's fine with us'.
On inflation, I'm reliably informed that McDonald's just has or is about to cut the price of its meals in the UK. It's the first price cut they've made since 2021 apparently.
A new menu is due next week, so presumably then.
Yes I expect so. It's a good sign that food inflation has begun falling though. They wouldn't cut their prices unless they were sure their supply chain was shifting down in cost.
Or that their market is shrinking thanks to lacki of cash.
What we aren't told is how much the food will shrink in size.
It's one Poll. Can't believe everyone is suddenly thinking Lab won't have the next PM.
It is looking very, very bleak for those of us who are tired of the Conservatives. You have a point that Sunak is a 10/10 performer whilst Starmer barely makes a 0. There is more to it than just Starmer's poor performance, we are just not a left of centre nation. Sunak-Tories have quite cleverly positioned themselves as both centre right and extreme right which Hoovers up the 40 per cent they need for a permanent reasonable majority. The one positive is when Sunak prevails Johnson is finished
You are forgetting here that the tories are left of centre currently....high tax and high public spending. Those of us that believe in economic liberalism there is no one to vote for
On inflation, I'm reliably informed that McDonald's just has or is about to cut the price of its meals in the UK. It's the first price cut they've made since 2021 apparently.
A new menu is due next week, so presumably then.
McDonalds have consistently priced themselves down. Their products set the stage though. McD cheeseburger - best basic burger winner, all years; McD Quarter pounder - best gormet burger, some years; McD Big Mac - best fancy burger, pretty much forever.
It's one Poll. Can't believe everyone is suddenly thinking Lab won't have the next PM.
It is looking very, very bleak for those of us who are tired of the Conservatives. You have a point that Sunak is a 10/10 performer whilst Starmer barely makes a 0. There is more to it than just Starmer's poor performance, we are just not a left of centre nation. Sunak-Tories have quite cleverly positioned themselves as both centre right and extreme right which Hoovers up the 40 per cent they need for a permanent reasonable majority. The one positive is when Sunak prevails Johnson is finished
You are forgetting here that the tories are left of centre currently....high tax and high public spending. Those of us that believe in economic liberalism there is no one to vote for
Liz Truss!
Do grow up, Truss advocated cutting taxes without cutting spending. Thats more a labour ideology. Economically liberal means cutting both
On inflation, I'm reliably informed that McDonald's just has or is about to cut the price of its meals in the UK. It's the first price cut they've made since 2021 apparently.
A new menu is due next week, so presumably then.
McDonalds have consistently priced themselves down. Their products set the stage though. McD cheeseburger - best basic burger winner, all years; McD Quarter pounder - best gormet burger, some years; McD Big Mac - best fancy burger, pretty much forever.
This morning, we were being told not to take too much hood of "new pollsters" yet one statistic on tonight's Redfield & Wilton "Red Wall" polling and you'd think the Conservatives had already won the next election. The headline VI still shows a swing of 12.5% from Conservative to Labour since 2019.
Survation (apparently the Gold Standard) still shows a solid 15-point Labour lead and a swing of 13.5% since the last election. YouGov will be interesting - their last poll had a 19-point Labour lead.
Glancing through the Deltapoll tables, I'm struck by a 31% Conservative number in Scotland but looking at the Deltapoll and R&W tables together, among 55-64 year olds, R&W has Labour ahead 40-31 but Deltapoll has the Conservatives ahead 44-35 while among those aged 65+.(Deltapoll unweighted sample 235, R&W unweighted sample 331), Deltapoll has the Conservatives ahead 49-32 while R&W has it tied at 35.
It's those variations which make such a difference to headline poll numbers when you're dealing with these various surveys. I don't dismiss Redfield & Wilton simply because they are "new" - they thoughtfully publish good tables and allow me to do my England sub sample. As to the accuracy of their polling and sampling, time will tell (it always does).
On days like this, I wish we had PB archives from 1995-7...
Indeed but the polling from that period has been widely discredited due to sampling issues resulting from the 1992 polling debacle. The infamous "shy Tory" syndrome (for some reason people were ashamed or embarrassed to admit they would be voting Conservative - no such problems on here it seems) was widely held to be responsible for the extreme Labour leads not translating into a result on polling day in 1997.
To be fair, even during the campaign there were some real outliers, remember the 5-point Labour lead reported by ICM and most polls over-stated the Labour vote (the last ICM the day before didn't but overstated the Conservative share by a couple of points and understated the LDs by about the same)
Top piece as usual, Cyclefree, but if I do have a criticism it is that it is too Met-oriented. There are four other Forces also under 'special measures'. That doesn't mean to say that those not in SM are necessarily good, they're just not bad enough to need outside help and controls.
Common sense suggests that far from being exceptional, the Met is the currently very visible tip of the iceberg. The whole Force needs a shake-up, from top to bottom.
I know. I have said as much in the many headers I've written on the police before.
We don't want the NI experience here - unless you want a police force that has a strange black hole for certain serious crimes.
I would suggest that the political parties get together, come up with a non-political candidate for Police Minister. Kick them into the Lords, with the understanding they'll serve a decade.
Otherwise the police will simply try and wait out a change in government and business as usual.
Dame Cyclefree has a certain ring to it. Also I'd kick their arses from here to eternity.
Top piece as usual, Cyclefree, but if I do have a criticism it is that it is too Met-oriented. There are four other Forces also under 'special measures'. That doesn't mean to say that those not in SM are necessarily good, they're just not bad enough to need outside help and controls.
Common sense suggests that far from being exceptional, the Met is the currently very visible tip of the iceberg. The whole Force needs a shake-up, from top to bottom.
I know. I have said as much in the many headers I've written on the police before.
We don't want the NI experience here - unless you want a police force that has a strange black hole for certain serious crimes.
I would suggest that the political parties get together, come up with a non-political candidate for Police Minister. Kick them into the Lords, with the understanding they'll serve a decade.
Otherwise the police will simply try and wait out a change in government and business as usual.
Dame Cyclefree has a certain ring to it. Also I'd kick their arses from here to eternity.
While you're here - thanks for the header; superb, spot on and in my view your best yet (that I've read).
I broadly agree with the thrust of the thread header and what many have said. However, linking it back to electoral politics can I be a cynical git for a moment?
If Labour goes all in on police reform, there’s a massive opportunity (electorally - I am not saying I agree with it, in fact I hate the idea) for the Tories to “defend” the “majority of decent coppers” against them. Like the Rwanda stuff, it would play well for the voters they want. Put brutally, those protesting over Sarah Everard probably mostly didn’t vote Tory anyway. Ironically, this would have been a perfect moment for Theresa May as Home Secretary as I’m sure she’d have reformed the police. I think Braverman will go the other way.
Being extra cynical, if I’m right about all that then ask yourself this: if party A wants to reform Police Force X and spoil the fun, but party B holds back, and Police Force X polices both of their places of work, what do you think the chances are of criminal issues starting to emerge around party A whenever there’s half a case whilst anything about party B vanishes? I think high.
Top piece as usual, Cyclefree, but if I do have a criticism it is that it is too Met-oriented. There are four other Forces also under 'special measures'. That doesn't mean to say that those not in SM are necessarily good, they're just not bad enough to need outside help and controls.
Common sense suggests that far from being exceptional, the Met is the currently very visible tip of the iceberg. The whole Force needs a shake-up, from top to bottom.
I know. I have said as much in the many headers I've written on the police before.
We don't want the NI experience here - unless you want a police force that has a strange black hole for certain serious crimes.
I would suggest that the political parties get together, come up with a non-political candidate for Police Minister. Kick them into the Lords, with the understanding they'll serve a decade.
Otherwise the police will simply try and wait out a change in government and business as usual.
Dame Cyclefree has a certain ring to it. Also I'd kick their arses from here to eternity.
British Army’s £5.5bn Ajax armoured vehicle project delayed yet again. Now not likely to see service much before 2030. So a mere 15 years from order placed to deployment. But MoD still pays General Dynamics large cheque. Because delays down to MoD’s 1,200 specification changes
I broadly agree with the thrust of the thread header and what many have said. However, linking it back to electoral politics can I be a cynical git for a moment?
If Labour goes all in on police reform, there’s a massive opportunity (electorally - I am not saying I agree with it, in fact I hate the idea) for the Tories to “defend” the “majority of decent coppers” against them. Like the Rwanda stuff, it would play well for the voters they want. Put brutally, those protesting over Sarah Everard probably mostly didn’t vote Tory anyway. Ironically, this would have been a perfect moment for Theresa May as Home Secretary as I’m sure she’d have reformed the police. I think Braverman will go the other way.
Being extra cynical, if I’m right about all that then ask yourself this: if party A wants to reform Police Force X and spoil the fun, but party B holds back, and Police Force X polices both of their places of work, what do you think the chances are of criminal issues starting to emerge around party A whenever there’s half a case whilst anything about party B vanishes? I think high.
I am not sure I agree. The police are now so poorly regarded by so many across he political spectrum and amongst all classes that I think they have soaked up whatever natural reservoir of sympathy and support they once had. People see them as fundamentally no longer fit for purpose as an organisation - even though the majority of those actually doing the job are doing their best. I don't see much support coming to the Tories from defending et another vested interest group.
On inflation, I'm reliably informed that McDonald's just has or is about to cut the price of its meals in the UK. It's the first price cut they've made since 2021 apparently.
A new menu is due next week, so presumably then.
McDonalds have consistently priced themselves down. Their products set the stage though. McD cheeseburger - best basic burger winner, all years; McD Quarter pounder - best gormet burger, some years; McD Big Mac - best fancy burger, pretty much forever.
If I had their product I'd be going up market.
I pity you, for living in a world where McDonalds is the best of all possible burgers.
Only thing on the whole freaking menu that's not total barf-bag filler, are McD french fries.
Top piece as usual, Cyclefree, but if I do have a criticism it is that it is too Met-oriented. There are four other Forces also under 'special measures'. That doesn't mean to say that those not in SM are necessarily good, they're just not bad enough to need outside help and controls.
Common sense suggests that far from being exceptional, the Met is the currently very visible tip of the iceberg. The whole Force needs a shake-up, from top to bottom.
I know. I have said as much in the many headers I've written on the police before.
We don't want the NI experience here - unless you want a police force that has a strange black hole for certain serious crimes.
I would suggest that the political parties get together, come up with a non-political candidate for Police Minister. Kick them into the Lords, with the understanding they'll serve a decade.
Otherwise the police will simply try and wait out a change in government and business as usual.
Dame Cyclefree has a certain ring to it. Also I'd kick their arses from here to eternity.
Is THIS how British Establish co-opts the good . . . and turns them into the "great"?
On inflation, I'm reliably informed that McDonald's just has or is about to cut the price of its meals in the UK. It's the first price cut they've made since 2021 apparently.
A new menu is due next week, so presumably then.
McDonalds have consistently priced themselves down. Their products set the stage though. McD cheeseburger - best basic burger winner, all years; McD Quarter pounder - best gormet burger, some years; McD Big Mac - best fancy burger, pretty much forever.
If I had their product I'd be going up market.
I pity you, for living in a world where McDonalds is the best of all possible burgers.
Only thing on the whole freaking menu that's not total barf-bag filler, are McD french fries.
A good burger is like a bra.
Burgers, like bras, are a third engineering, a third anticipation, and a third big messy mouthfuls.
The first rule of a burger is that it’s a sandwich. You must be able to eat it with your hands.
I broadly agree with the thrust of the thread header and what many have said. However, linking it back to electoral politics can I be a cynical git for a moment?
If Labour goes all in on police reform, there’s a massive opportunity (electorally - I am not saying I agree with it, in fact I hate the idea) for the Tories to “defend” the “majority of decent coppers” against them. Like the Rwanda stuff, it would play well for the voters they want. Put brutally, those protesting over Sarah Everard probably mostly didn’t vote Tory anyway. Ironically, this would have been a perfect moment for Theresa May as Home Secretary as I’m sure she’d have reformed the police. I think Braverman will go the other way.
Being extra cynical, if I’m right about all that then ask yourself this: if party A wants to reform Police Force X and spoil the fun, but party B holds back, and Police Force X polices both of their places of work, what do you think the chances are of criminal issues starting to emerge around party A whenever there’s half a case whilst anything about party B vanishes? I think high.
I am not sure I agree. The police are now so poorly regarded by so many across he political spectrum and amongst all classes that I think they have soaked up whatever natural reservoir of sympathy and support they once had. People see them as fundamentally no longer fit for purpose as an organisation - even though the majority of those actually doing the job are doing their best. I don't see much support coming to the Tories from defending et another vested interest group.
I think you’d be surprised. Many think the police are failing, but they also think the answer is to “allow” then to go back to “giving a clip round the ear” and to let them beat up some criminals.
I hope I’m wrong, but I think there’s enough of that about to allow Starmer to be cast as “weak on crime” if he’s not careful.
British Army’s £5.5bn Ajax armoured vehicle project delayed yet again. Now not likely to see service much before 2030. So a mere 15 years from order placed to deployment. But MoD still pays General Dynamics large cheque. Because delays down to MoD’s 1,200 specification changes
I broadly agree with the thrust of the thread header and what many have said. However, linking it back to electoral politics can I be a cynical git for a moment?
If Labour goes all in on police reform, there’s a massive opportunity (electorally - I am not saying I agree with it, in fact I hate the idea) for the Tories to “defend” the “majority of decent coppers” against them. Like the Rwanda stuff, it would play well for the voters they want. Put brutally, those protesting over Sarah Everard probably mostly didn’t vote Tory anyway. Ironically, this would have been a perfect moment for Theresa May as Home Secretary as I’m sure she’d have reformed the police. I think Braverman will go the other way.
Being extra cynical, if I’m right about all that then ask yourself this: if party A wants to reform Police Force X and spoil the fun, but party B holds back, and Police Force X polices both of their places of work, what do you think the chances are of criminal issues starting to emerge around party A whenever there’s half a case whilst anything about party B vanishes? I think high.
I am not sure I agree. The police are now so poorly regarded by so many across he political spectrum and amongst all classes that I think they have soaked up whatever natural reservoir of sympathy and support they once had. People see them as fundamentally no longer fit for purpose as an organisation - even though the majority of those actually doing the job are doing their best. I don't see much support coming to the Tories from defending et another vested interest group.
I think you’d be surprised. Many think the police are failing, but they also think the answer is to “allow” then to go back to “giving a clip round the ear” and to let them beat up some criminals.
I hope I’m wrong, but I think there’s enough of that about to allow Starmer to be cast as “weak on crime” if he’s not careful.
Quite a few others seem to think the answer is to have them pointlessly walking around all day.
I broadly agree with the thrust of the thread header and what many have said. However, linking it back to electoral politics can I be a cynical git for a moment?
If Labour goes all in on police reform, there’s a massive opportunity (electorally - I am not saying I agree with it, in fact I hate the idea) for the Tories to “defend” the “majority of decent coppers” against them. Like the Rwanda stuff, it would play well for the voters they want. Put brutally, those protesting over Sarah Everard probably mostly didn’t vote Tory anyway. Ironically, this would have been a perfect moment for Theresa May as Home Secretary as I’m sure she’d have reformed the police. I think Braverman will go the other way.
Being extra cynical, if I’m right about all that then ask yourself this: if party A wants to reform Police Force X and spoil the fun, but party B holds back, and Police Force X polices both of their places of work, what do you think the chances are of criminal issues starting to emerge around party A whenever there’s half a case whilst anything about party B vanishes? I think high.
I am not sure I agree. The police are now so poorly regarded by so many across he political spectrum and amongst all classes that I think they have soaked up whatever natural reservoir of sympathy and support they once had. People see them as fundamentally no longer fit for purpose as an organisation - even though the majority of those actually doing the job are doing their best. I don't see much support coming to the Tories from defending et another vested interest group.
I think you’d be surprised. Many think the police are failing, but they also think the answer is to “allow” then to go back to “giving a clip round the ear” and to let them beat up some criminals.
I hope I’m wrong, but I think there’s enough of that about to allow Starmer to be cast as “weak on crime” if he’s not careful.
Given how few crimes the police actually investigate - fraud, no; burglary, no; car theft, no; bicycle theft - you have got to be joking; mugging, no; rape - sort of but we'll cock it up, threats of violence, no, knife crime - well, we'll try, the "weak on crime" label is more properly applied to the police.
I broadly agree with the thrust of the thread header and what many have said. However, linking it back to electoral politics can I be a cynical git for a moment?
If Labour goes all in on police reform, there’s a massive opportunity (electorally - I am not saying I agree with it, in fact I hate the idea) for the Tories to “defend” the “majority of decent coppers” against them. Like the Rwanda stuff, it would play well for the voters they want. Put brutally, those protesting over Sarah Everard probably mostly didn’t vote Tory anyway. Ironically, this would have been a perfect moment for Theresa May as Home Secretary as I’m sure she’d have reformed the police. I think Braverman will go the other way.
Being extra cynical, if I’m right about all that then ask yourself this: if party A wants to reform Police Force X and spoil the fun, but party B holds back, and Police Force X polices both of their places of work, what do you think the chances are of criminal issues starting to emerge around party A whenever there’s half a case whilst anything about party B vanishes? I think high.
I am not sure I agree. The police are now so poorly regarded by so many across he political spectrum and amongst all classes that I think they have soaked up whatever natural reservoir of sympathy and support they once had. People see them as fundamentally no longer fit for purpose as an organisation - even though the majority of those actually doing the job are doing their best. I don't see much support coming to the Tories from defending et another vested interest group.
I think you’d be surprised. Many think the police are failing, but they also think the answer is to “allow” then to go back to “giving a clip round the ear” and to let them beat up some criminals.
I hope I’m wrong, but I think there’s enough of that about to allow Starmer to be cast as “weak on crime” if he’s not careful.
Given how few crimes the police actually investigate - fraud, no; burglary, no; car theft, no; bicycle theft - you have got to be joking; mugging, no; rape - sort of but we'll cock it up, threats of violence, no, knife crime - well, we'll try, the "weak on crime" label is more properly applied to the police.
I broadly agree with the thrust of the thread header and what many have said. However, linking it back to electoral politics can I be a cynical git for a moment?
If Labour goes all in on police reform, there’s a massive opportunity (electorally - I am not saying I agree with it, in fact I hate the idea) for the Tories to “defend” the “majority of decent coppers” against them. Like the Rwanda stuff, it would play well for the voters they want. Put brutally, those protesting over Sarah Everard probably mostly didn’t vote Tory anyway. Ironically, this would have been a perfect moment for Theresa May as Home Secretary as I’m sure she’d have reformed the police. I think Braverman will go the other way.
Being extra cynical, if I’m right about all that then ask yourself this: if party A wants to reform Police Force X and spoil the fun, but party B holds back, and Police Force X polices both of their places of work, what do you think the chances are of criminal issues starting to emerge around party A whenever there’s half a case whilst anything about party B vanishes? I think high.
I am not sure I agree. The police are now so poorly regarded by so many across he political spectrum and amongst all classes that I think they have soaked up whatever natural reservoir of sympathy and support they once had. People see them as fundamentally no longer fit for purpose as an organisation - even though the majority of those actually doing the job are doing their best. I don't see much support coming to the Tories from defending et another vested interest group.
I think you’d be surprised. Many think the police are failing, but they also think the answer is to “allow” then to go back to “giving a clip round the ear” and to let them beat up some criminals.
I hope I’m wrong, but I think there’s enough of that about to allow Starmer to be cast as “weak on crime” if he’s not careful.
Quite a few others seem to think the answer is to have them pointlessly walking around all day.
On inflation, I'm reliably informed that McDonald's just has or is about to cut the price of its meals in the UK. It's the first price cut they've made since 2021 apparently.
A new menu is due next week, so presumably then.
McDonalds have consistently priced themselves down. Their products set the stage though. McD cheeseburger - best basic burger winner, all years; McD Quarter pounder - best gormet burger, some years; McD Big Mac - best fancy burger, pretty much forever.
If I had their product I'd be going up market.
I pity you, for living in a world where McDonalds is the best of all possible burgers.
Only thing on the whole freaking menu that's not total barf-bag filler, are McD french fries.
Indeed, the return of Wendy's to the UK has shown it's possible to get a decent burger at a reasonable price.
Slightly more up market, Mrs Stodge and I are fans of Five Guys which we first encountered in Southern California though my all-time best burger remains from Burger Fuel in New Zealand.
The first episode comes across as a little 'The Sweeney', and as it progresses and we get different points of view of the same events from different parts of 'the criminal justice system' it becomes ever more 'Oh, that is.... badly f**ked up...'. It's quite heartbreaking by the end.
No idea if it's available on streaming platforms etc, but ping me if it's of any interest.
On inflation, I'm reliably informed that McDonald's just has or is about to cut the price of its meals in the UK. It's the first price cut they've made since 2021 apparently.
A new menu is due next week, so presumably then.
Yes I expect so. It's a good sign that food inflation has begun falling though. They wouldn't cut their prices unless they were sure their supply chain was shifting down in cost.
I think Macdonalds probably run on quite high margins, and can well afford to cut their prices and benefit from the positive publicity that will accrue. Which is what has happened in this thread. I applaud them for doing it, but not sure it's indicative of anything other than good marketing.
On inflation, I'm reliably informed that McDonald's just has or is about to cut the price of its meals in the UK. It's the first price cut they've made since 2021 apparently.
A new menu is due next week, so presumably then.
McDonalds have consistently priced themselves down. Their products set the stage though. McD cheeseburger - best basic burger winner, all years; McD Quarter pounder - best gormet burger, some years; McD Big Mac - best fancy burger, pretty much forever.
If I had their product I'd be going up market.
Every time I eat a McDonalds it feels good at the time and then I feel pretty rancid a few hours later.
On inflation, I'm reliably informed that McDonald's just has or is about to cut the price of its meals in the UK. It's the first price cut they've made since 2021 apparently.
A new menu is due next week, so presumably then.
McDonalds have consistently priced themselves down. Their products set the stage though. McD cheeseburger - best basic burger winner, all years; McD Quarter pounder - best gormet burger, some years; McD Big Mac - best fancy burger, pretty much forever.
If I had their product I'd be going up market.
I pity you, for living in a world where McDonalds is the best of all possible burgers.
Only thing on the whole freaking menu that's not total barf-bag filler, are McD french fries.
A good burger is like a bra.
Burgers, like bras, are a third engineering, a third anticipation, and a third big messy mouthfuls.
The first rule of a burger is that it’s a sandwich. You must be able to eat it with your hands.
The 'fancy' burgers that you can barely lift in your hands, never mind take a bite of, are one of the worst 'gastronomy' trends of all time.
There is a quite enjoyable Heston Blumenthal show 'In search of perfection' with one episode focussed on burgers and he goes into the eat-ability of burgers in some depth with some research scientists.
I broadly agree with the thrust of the thread header and what many have said. However, linking it back to electoral politics can I be a cynical git for a moment?
If Labour goes all in on police reform, there’s a massive opportunity (electorally - I am not saying I agree with it, in fact I hate the idea) for the Tories to “defend” the “majority of decent coppers” against them. Like the Rwanda stuff, it would play well for the voters they want. Put brutally, those protesting over Sarah Everard probably mostly didn’t vote Tory anyway. Ironically, this would have been a perfect moment for Theresa May as Home Secretary as I’m sure she’d have reformed the police. I think Braverman will go the other way.
Being extra cynical, if I’m right about all that then ask yourself this: if party A wants to reform Police Force X and spoil the fun, but party B holds back, and Police Force X polices both of their places of work, what do you think the chances are of criminal issues starting to emerge around party A whenever there’s half a case whilst anything about party B vanishes? I think high.
I am not sure I agree. The police are now so poorly regarded by so many across he political spectrum and amongst all classes that I think they have soaked up whatever natural reservoir of sympathy and support they once had. People see them as fundamentally no longer fit for purpose as an organisation - even though the majority of those actually doing the job are doing their best. I don't see much support coming to the Tories from defending et another vested interest group.
I think you’d be surprised. Many think the police are failing, but they also think the answer is to “allow” then to go back to “giving a clip round the ear” and to let them beat up some criminals.
I hope I’m wrong, but I think there’s enough of that about to allow Starmer to be cast as “weak on crime” if he’s not careful.
Given how few crimes the police actually investigate - fraud, no; burglary, no; car theft, no; bicycle theft - you have got to be joking; mugging, no; rape - sort of but we'll cock it up, threats of violence, no, knife crime - well, we'll try, the "weak on crime" label is more properly applied to the police.
They are happy to go for motoring offences or social media posts though.
I broadly agree with the thrust of the thread header and what many have said. However, linking it back to electoral politics can I be a cynical git for a moment?
If Labour goes all in on police reform, there’s a massive opportunity (electorally - I am not saying I agree with it, in fact I hate the idea) for the Tories to “defend” the “majority of decent coppers” against them. Like the Rwanda stuff, it would play well for the voters they want. Put brutally, those protesting over Sarah Everard probably mostly didn’t vote Tory anyway. Ironically, this would have been a perfect moment for Theresa May as Home Secretary as I’m sure she’d have reformed the police. I think Braverman will go the other way.
Being extra cynical, if I’m right about all that then ask yourself this: if party A wants to reform Police Force X and spoil the fun, but party B holds back, and Police Force X polices both of their places of work, what do you think the chances are of criminal issues starting to emerge around party A whenever there’s half a case whilst anything about party B vanishes? I think high.
I am not sure I agree. The police are now so poorly regarded by so many across he political spectrum and amongst all classes that I think they have soaked up whatever natural reservoir of sympathy and support they once had. People see them as fundamentally no longer fit for purpose as an organisation - even though the majority of those actually doing the job are doing their best. I don't see much support coming to the Tories from defending et another vested interest group.
I think you’d be surprised. Many think the police are failing, but they also think the answer is to “allow” then to go back to “giving a clip round the ear” and to let them beat up some criminals.
I hope I’m wrong, but I think there’s enough of that about to allow Starmer to be cast as “weak on crime” if he’s not careful.
Yes, from Today's YouGov, there was a tendency for Con voters to be more supportive of the police, but not by much and nearly half had little or no confidence to sort themselves out.
I broadly agree with the thrust of the thread header and what many have said. However, linking it back to electoral politics can I be a cynical git for a moment?
If Labour goes all in on police reform, there’s a massive opportunity (electorally - I am not saying I agree with it, in fact I hate the idea) for the Tories to “defend” the “majority of decent coppers” against them. Like the Rwanda stuff, it would play well for the voters they want. Put brutally, those protesting over Sarah Everard probably mostly didn’t vote Tory anyway. Ironically, this would have been a perfect moment for Theresa May as Home Secretary as I’m sure she’d have reformed the police. I think Braverman will go the other way.
Being extra cynical, if I’m right about all that then ask yourself this: if party A wants to reform Police Force X and spoil the fun, but party B holds back, and Police Force X polices both of their places of work, what do you think the chances are of criminal issues starting to emerge around party A whenever there’s half a case whilst anything about party B vanishes? I think high.
I am not sure I agree. The police are now so poorly regarded by so many across he political spectrum and amongst all classes that I think they have soaked up whatever natural reservoir of sympathy and support they once had. People see them as fundamentally no longer fit for purpose as an organisation - even though the majority of those actually doing the job are doing their best. I don't see much support coming to the Tories from defending et another vested interest group.
I think you’d be surprised. Many think the police are failing, but they also think the answer is to “allow” then to go back to “giving a clip round the ear” and to let them beat up some criminals.
I hope I’m wrong, but I think there’s enough of that about to allow Starmer to be cast as “weak on crime” if he’s not careful.
Given how few crimes the police actually investigate - fraud, no; burglary, no; car theft, no; bicycle theft - you have got to be joking; mugging, no; rape - sort of but we'll cock it up, threats of violence, no, knife crime - well, we'll try, the "weak on crime" label is more properly applied to the police.
This is why we need a rival police force, Sheriffs, with overlapping responsibilities. Make them compete for budgets and see who can get higher clear up rates and solve more crime.
I broadly agree with the thrust of the thread header and what many have said. However, linking it back to electoral politics can I be a cynical git for a moment?
If Labour goes all in on police reform, there’s a massive opportunity (electorally - I am not saying I agree with it, in fact I hate the idea) for the Tories to “defend” the “majority of decent coppers” against them. Like the Rwanda stuff, it would play well for the voters they want. Put brutally, those protesting over Sarah Everard probably mostly didn’t vote Tory anyway. Ironically, this would have been a perfect moment for Theresa May as Home Secretary as I’m sure she’d have reformed the police. I think Braverman will go the other way.
Being extra cynical, if I’m right about all that then ask yourself this: if party A wants to reform Police Force X and spoil the fun, but party B holds back, and Police Force X polices both of their places of work, what do you think the chances are of criminal issues starting to emerge around party A whenever there’s half a case whilst anything about party B vanishes? I think high.
I am not sure I agree. The police are now so poorly regarded by so many across he political spectrum and amongst all classes that I think they have soaked up whatever natural reservoir of sympathy and support they once had. People see them as fundamentally no longer fit for purpose as an organisation - even though the majority of those actually doing the job are doing their best. I don't see much support coming to the Tories from defending et another vested interest group.
I think you’d be surprised. Many think the police are failing, but they also think the answer is to “allow” then to go back to “giving a clip round the ear” and to let them beat up some criminals.
I hope I’m wrong, but I think there’s enough of that about to allow Starmer to be cast as “weak on crime” if he’s not careful.
Given how few crimes the police actually investigate - fraud, no; burglary, no; car theft, no; bicycle theft - you have got to be joking; mugging, no; rape - sort of but we'll cock it up, threats of violence, no, knife crime - well, we'll try, the "weak on crime" label is more properly applied to the police.
I agree, Cyclefree. I don’t think a policy of sorting out a failing police force is going to be successfully portrayed as ‘weak on crime’.
I’m not sure even the reliable Tory pensioner vote would be fooled by that crap any more.
Top piece as usual, Cyclefree, but if I do have a criticism it is that it is too Met-oriented. There are four other Forces also under 'special measures'. That doesn't mean to say that those not in SM are necessarily good, they're just not bad enough to need outside help and controls.
Common sense suggests that far from being exceptional, the Met is the currently very visible tip of the iceberg. The whole Force needs a shake-up, from top to bottom.
I know. I have said as much in the many headers I've written on the police before.
We don't want the NI experience here - unless you want a police force that has a strange black hole for certain serious crimes.
I would suggest that the political parties get together, come up with a non-political candidate for Police Minister. Kick them into the Lords, with the understanding they'll serve a decade.
Otherwise the police will simply try and wait out a change in government and business as usual.
Dame Cyclefree has a certain ring to it. Also I'd kick their arses from here to eternity.
While you're here - thanks for the header; superb, spot on and in my view your best yet (that I've read).
I broadly agree with the thrust of the thread header and what many have said. However, linking it back to electoral politics can I be a cynical git for a moment?
If Labour goes all in on police reform, there’s a massive opportunity (electorally - I am not saying I agree with it, in fact I hate the idea) for the Tories to “defend” the “majority of decent coppers” against them. Like the Rwanda stuff, it would play well for the voters they want. Put brutally, those protesting over Sarah Everard probably mostly didn’t vote Tory anyway. Ironically, this would have been a perfect moment for Theresa May as Home Secretary as I’m sure she’d have reformed the police. I think Braverman will go the other way.
Being extra cynical, if I’m right about all that then ask yourself this: if party A wants to reform Police Force X and spoil the fun, but party B holds back, and Police Force X polices both of their places of work, what do you think the chances are of criminal issues starting to emerge around party A whenever there’s half a case whilst anything about party B vanishes? I think high.
I am not sure I agree. The police are now so poorly regarded by so many across he political spectrum and amongst all classes that I think they have soaked up whatever natural reservoir of sympathy and support they once had. People see them as fundamentally no longer fit for purpose as an organisation - even though the majority of those actually doing the job are doing their best. I don't see much support coming to the Tories from defending et another vested interest group.
I think you’d be surprised. Many think the police are failing, but they also think the answer is to “allow” then to go back to “giving a clip round the ear” and to let them beat up some criminals.
I hope I’m wrong, but I think there’s enough of that about to allow Starmer to be cast as “weak on crime” if he’s not careful.
Given how few crimes the police actually investigate - fraud, no; burglary, no; car theft, no; bicycle theft - you have got to be joking; mugging, no; rape - sort of but we'll cock it up, threats of violence, no, knife crime - well, we'll try, the "weak on crime" label is more properly applied to the police.
They are happy to go for motoring offences or social media posts though.
Target culture in action, as it is in the NHS.
Can tick a lot of crimes as sorted if you pick the low hanging fruit.
Comments
The Met are universally hated for many of the failings listed and others.
The Commissioners made many of the right noises but there's a lot of inertia to overcome.
But many of the failures are not just of the Met but policing in general, poor leadership, overworked etc.
But having read elements of the report I just can't believe that some of the complaints didn't get actioned, signals to me that the Met need to have a totally independent professional standards that doesn't recruit from serving or ex officers in the force. That way it won't be beholden to the cliques and polotics .
The Police federation also need to back the reforms, clear the dinosaurs/criminals so we can support the front line better type stuff. Their initial response was very poor, going for the bad apple line.
Most of the people I've spoken to seem to think the report fair and hope it forces needed change especially around supervision and work loads.
Having said that some voters will go back to Lab but will there be enough for Labour to take back the Red Wall? I have my doubts..
That's why the window exists, Labour haven't sealed the deal with voters mostly because no one knows what they're about other than "not the Tories" but if the Tories are looking competent and overseeing a growing economy and wages 18 months from now I'm not sure that "not the Tories" is a vote winner.
This was foreseeable for a long time, I've been saying for ages that Labour need a proper vision for what they want the UK to look like, is it Scandinavian style high tax, good public services, is it more like Southern Europe with middle taxes and poor services with neglected infrastructure outside of healthcare? What are Labour's plans to increase productivity and promote wealth creation, how will Labour help people move up the income ladder? There's been waffle documents but no vision articulated.
Winning by default is fine if you're up against a loathed party and PM, we may not be in that position in 18 months which means Labour will need to win by policy but as yet no one can name them. All we have are promises that they will be outlined while the government begins to set the agenda again.
Is there still a need for BoE to inflict more interest rate pain this week then?
Anyway if you think I am not going to comment on R&Ws quite remarkable finding tonight that SKS is behind Sunak in the red wall despite Labour being 16% ahead you must be mad.
Didn't expect Corbyn to win in 2019 after the 2nd referendum sabbateur SKS nobbled Labour.
I am on NOM in 2024 though. Might have a nibble on Con Maj as odds are massive.
You are aware Hunts budget last week allowed a lot of these skills and Labour shortages to be filled now via foreign workers, most notably Albanian’s coming to work in the building sector? True, no measure yet for help with the hospitality industry, but this will come before end of the next 12 months I am sure.
There has been very little coverage of this change announced last week in the media, but it definitely happened.
exceedingly well to be reelected with a landslide and Rishi is relatively local at Richmond. Houchen was a notable Sunak supporter duting the leadership election. This area will be a
real fulcrum at the election. Not sure how Sir Keir will fare in this neighbourhood.
If Labour don't manage it the response will be very interesting - Corbyn got another go, but did not have 4-5 years of run up, and was ridiculed for claiming to be the real winner when he had in fact lost (despite definitely doing much better than expected, which was to his credit), so would Starmerites try the same move?
British Army’s £5.5bn Ajax armoured vehicle project delayed yet again. Now not likely to see service much before 2030. So a mere 15 years from order placed to deployment. But MoD still pays General Dynamics large cheque. Because delays down to MoD’s 1,200 specification changes
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1638074182356303874?cxt=HHwWhICwscfyzbstAAAA
WTF has my life come to
I *am* @SeanT BTW
I do myself think Starmer will be the next PM but it's going to be hard faught election and Labour will need to up their game in the way @MaxPB has outlined.
One day Tories might even be hungry enough for power so remove a newly elected leader only about 5 weeks in. Can you imagine Starmer dumped so that Phillipson or Nandi can have a go? No? That’s the difference between parties of government and party’s of opposition.
The Herald - SNP fails in 'shameful' bid to scrap FMQs until new leader ready
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/23401798.snp-fails-shameful-bid-scrap-fmqs-new-leader-ready/?ref=twtrec
Whilst I agree that nothing will change, I think there is a valid reason why - change is too sodding difficult to achieve. Starmer is very likely to be a profound disappointment to anyone who actually wants to see things done differently as he is likely to be status quo ante - same as now without the incompetence and massive corruption.
*Proper Scottish. Rock/Folk fusion with twin bagpipers a fiddle and an accordion as well as guitar/bass/keyboards/drums. Absolutely mega, especially when they did (how do I pronounce this) Soraidh Slan complete with the local high school pipe & drum band on stage. *very* loud and who said you can't rock with bagpipes?
So the question remains whether this is 1991 and Starmer is Kinnochio, or whether this is 1996 and Sunak is out of road and reliant on the support of the
UUPERG...The problem, for many not from there, is that in their mental map, the Unionist politicians job is to deliver the unionist vote to keep the Peace Process going.
The actual wishes of the Unionists are to be disregarded as unimportant. They are, after all, a basket of deplorables.
The DUP have figured out that being a face eating leopard is an alternative to have their faces eaten.
Welcome to the Peace Process.
But he isn't disgustingly corrupt and immoral like so many of today's Tories. And note that I still post positively about Dishi Sunak even though he is sadly so far out of his depth.
This morning, we were being told not to take too much hood of "new pollsters" yet one statistic on tonight's Redfield & Wilton "Red Wall" polling and you'd think the Conservatives had already won the next election. The headline VI still shows a swing of 12.5% from Conservative to Labour since 2019.
Survation (apparently the Gold Standard) still shows a solid 15-point Labour lead and a swing of 13.5% since the last election. YouGov will be interesting - their last poll had a 19-point Labour lead.
Glancing through the Deltapoll tables, I'm struck by a 31% Conservative number in Scotland but looking at the Deltapoll and R&W tables together, among 55-64 year olds, R&W has Labour ahead 40-31 but Deltapoll has the Conservatives ahead 44-35 while among those aged 65+.(Deltapoll unweighted sample 235, R&W unweighted sample 331), Deltapoll has the Conservatives ahead 49-32 while R&W has it tied at 35.
It's those variations which make such a difference to headline poll numbers when you're dealing with these various surveys. I don't dismiss Redfield & Wilton simply because they are "new" - they thoughtfully publish good tables and allow me to do my England sub sample. As to the accuracy of their polling and sampling, time will tell (it always does).
Politics used to be disagreements about policy. You could dislike Blair / Major / Cameron etc wthout knowing them to be crooks and shysters. Now? Its survival of the moral, and *both* sides consider themselves to be the moralists standing up to disgusting opposition. Even the ones who are openly corrupt / dishonest / jingoistic.
The country that brexited hasn’t stopped wanting to pull of drawbridge up even further. Labour and Starmer are simply out of touch out of step with the voters is why they are now struggling.
Then again, the Tories and their dog whistle war room have been very clever to fill hotels up with the asylum seekers. If you can’t take your kids to the hotel complex leisure pool anymore, is this because an incompetent government can’t process claims, or the fact the boats keep coming?
It's no one's fault but their own if SF of all people come across as the more reasonable of the two.
What we aren't told is how much the food will shrink in size.
And this little dossier of paragraph is your defence against the charge you turned to fascism?
Why didn’t you just say, young lady, when I was young like you are now, my heart was just like an open book, so I used to say, live and let live. But when this ever changing world in which we live in, makes you give in and cry - say live and let die.
The idiot who sent the Geordie Jack tape rightly got put away as his actions almost certainly caused lives to be lost.
However, while it’s easy to criticise the force and the investigation, they were drowning in data in an age before routine computer databases. Plus DNA was not available as a technique.
He would be caught far sooner now.
However, I have my doubts.
If I had their product I'd be going up market.
To be fair, even during the campaign there were some real outliers, remember the 5-point Labour lead reported by ICM and most polls over-stated the Labour vote (the last ICM the day before didn't but overstated the Conservative share by a couple of points and understated the LDs by about the same)
If Labour goes all in on police reform, there’s a massive opportunity (electorally - I am not saying I agree with it, in fact I hate the idea) for the Tories to “defend” the “majority of decent coppers” against them. Like the Rwanda stuff, it would play well for the voters they want. Put brutally, those protesting over Sarah Everard probably mostly didn’t vote Tory anyway. Ironically, this would have been a perfect moment for Theresa May as Home Secretary as I’m sure she’d have reformed the police. I think Braverman will go the other way.
Being extra cynical, if I’m right about all that then ask yourself this: if party A wants to reform Police Force X and spoil the fun, but party B holds back, and Police Force X polices both of their places of work, what do you think the chances are of criminal issues starting to emerge around party A whenever there’s half a case whilst anything about party B vanishes? I think high.
Asking me if I might interested in working for the Bank of England.
Part of the role would be to reassure the markets, the public, and financial services companies.
Am I any good at coming up with memorables phrases and KPIs that the public would understand.
If the BoE publish a stepmon index on financial stability you know I've got the job.
The guilty essentials of gilts?
How greener stocks are taken in by the market?
Wether prices are hardening, or going straight down?
Only thing on the whole freaking menu that's not total barf-bag filler, are McD french fries.
Burgers, like bras, are a third engineering, a third anticipation, and a third big messy mouthfuls.
The first rule of a burger is that it’s a sandwich. You must be able to eat it with your hands.
I hope I’m wrong, but I think there’s enough of that about to allow Starmer to be cast as “weak on crime” if he’s not careful.
Slightly more up market, Mrs Stodge and I are fans of Five Guys which we first encountered in Southern California though my all-time best burger remains from Burger Fuel in New Zealand.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_&_Order_(British_TV_series)
The first episode comes across as a little 'The Sweeney', and as it progresses and we get different points of view of the same events from different parts of 'the criminal justice system' it becomes ever more 'Oh, that is.... badly f**ked up...'. It's quite heartbreaking by the end.
No idea if it's available on streaming platforms etc, but ping me if it's of any interest.
Talking of which, any Donald News yet?
There is a quite enjoyable Heston Blumenthal show 'In search of perfection' with one episode focussed on burgers and he goes into the eat-ability of burgers in some depth with some research scientists.
I don’t think a policy of sorting out a failing police force is going to be successfully portrayed as ‘weak on crime’.
I’m not sure even the reliable Tory pensioner vote would be fooled by that crap any more.
Can tick a lot of crimes as sorted if you pick the low hanging fruit.