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Unhappy Valley – politicalbetting.com
Unhappy Valley – politicalbetting.com
Happy Valley, Line of Duty, The Bay, The Gold, Broadchurch, Inspector Morse, Endeavour, Unforgotten, Life on Mars, Ashes to Ashes, Cracker, Vera, Prime Suspect, Bodyguard, Luther, Criminal, Heartbeat, Inspector George Gently, Between the Lines, Foyle’s War. The view we lap up, given the preponderance of TV police dramas, is of basically good hearted, if understandably grumpy, policemen (and the occasional ballsy policewoman) doing their best for us. If they occasionally stretch or break a rule or two, well it’s all in a good cause. They are the good guys.
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Nobody who fails a DBS check can work for the rozzers
Underrated point on the mayor's general lack-of-arsedness here too.
Make examples and bribe people to shop their colleagues.
Do we have any polis? I would be very interested to get a from the horse's mouth account of what's happening.
Labour leads by 16% in the Red Wall, down from 28% four weeks ago.
Red Wall VI (19 March):
Labour 48% (-3)
Conservative 32% (+3)
Reform UK 8% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 6% (–)
Green 4% (+2)
Plaid Cymru 1% (–)
Other 2% (–)
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1638223950374117379
The sheer incompetence on display is the other thing that stands out from the report.
Sadly it's not true but the scary bit is that it reads as plausible.
It was another recent redwall poll which first alerted us to the Tory surge, it seems red wall in particular are falling back in love with Tory’s again.
Okay, it was the Oxford Malmaison, which is a former prison.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/21/jeremy-hunt-pensions-tax-break-expected-to-help-nearly-as-many-bankers-as-doctors
'Alongside doctors, other senior public sector workers – including top civil servants, police officials, and headteachers – could benefit from the change. However, more than half of non-retired people with a pension pot worth more than £1m are in the private sector, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics.
Judges already had an exemption to the lifetime allowance, under a policy the government said was designed to fix a recruitment problem.'
Today: Lab 357, Con 198
Yesterday: Lab 359, Con 197
https://pollingreport.uk/seats
Also:
"The Greens Aren't on 13% - Here's One Reason the Polling Might be Wrong
Callum Jones"
https://pollingreport.uk/articles/the-greens-arent-on-13-heres-one-reason-the-polling-might-be-wrong
(Asking for my wife.)
First lead for Sunak over Starmer in these seats since March 2022.
At this moment, which of the following do Red Wall voters think would be the better PM for the UK? (19 March)
Sunak 37% (+3)
Starmer 35% (-7)
Don't Know 28% (+4)
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1638226510950572053
SKS fans please explain
Most Tories/a majority of leavers think Boris Johnson did knowingly mislead parliament
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1637831081322766338/photo/1
SKS trail Sunak in the red wall
Could be an outlier.
Could be very significant
Sorry to bore you 🙂
He is, inexplicably, yet to face a hearing over the alleged gross misconduct in Cleveland despite it being 4 years later.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-64487621
Although SKS more or less agrees with the Tories in fact didn’t hesay they need to be more effective at it and that's why blah blah blah??
As I've been saying, the route for the Tories to get a 1992 style cling on to power victory exists where it didn't under Boris or Liz Truss. They need everything to go right for them though.
HONG KONG (AP) — Public screenings of a slasher film that features Winnie the Pooh were scrapped abruptly in Hong Kong on Tuesday, sparking discussions over increasing censorship in the city.
Film distributor VII Pillars Entertainment announced on Facebook that the release of “Winnie the Pooh: Blood and Honey” on Thursday had been canceled with “great regret” in Hong Kong and neighboring Macao.
In an email reply to The Associated Press, the distributor said it was notified by cinemas that they could not show the film as scheduled, but it didn’t know why. The cinema chains involved did not immediately reply to a request for comment.
For many residents, the Winnie the Pooh character is a playful taunt of China’s President Xi Jinping and Chinese censors in the past had briefly banned social media searches for the bear in the country. In 2018, the film “Christopher Robin,” also featuring Winnie the Pooh, was reportedly denied a release in China.
https://apnews.com/article/hong-kong-winnie-pooh-censorship-film-613ba02ab3cd453635f851bf1fbb071e
SSI - so where/how do PBers stand on "Blood and Honey"?
Now they are liking the tough talk from the government on it, but when it proves to be all fart and no follow through it will lead to an unwind.
Even if it a success, the voters will have seen prices go up nearly 20% over the last 2 years and pay hasn't matched that.
It's the economy, stupid.
One problem is things are clearly so bad that it appears unsolvable, or will be said to take a 'long time', when as cyclefree suggests a tight timetable would be possible, if there is the political and institutional will.
There won't be. The Police rejected and obstructed previous reports, and they will again, they are already clawing on the sympathy arguments, and will stop at nothing to imply complete chaos if they are not, effectively, given a free pass to only make changes if they want (ie, which won't make much difference).
As for HK, they are lucky they still get to have 'discussions' sparked by such things. Won't be long before that is not permitted either.
Watch Cocaine Bear instead.
Common sense suggests that far from being exceptional, the Met is the currently very visible tip of the iceberg. The whole Force needs a shake-up, from top to bottom.
People have short memories.
To take a simple example how many officers have been disciplined for failing to report concerns about Wayne Couzens or David Carrick? Are we seriously to believe that their disgusting and vile prejudices and attitudes did not manifest themselves to their work colleagues? Are we to believe that they are so stupid, so incompetent, so incapable of drawing a basic inference that they did not notice? What the hell are they employed for if that is the case?
There frankly should be a presumption of guilt for all officers and commanders who worked alongside those individuals or were responsible for their work. The onus should be on those concerned to prove how they missed this. If they cannot give an adequate explanation they should be gone.
It is only by breaking through the culture of secrecy, the canteen culture and the tendency to look the other way that the police can be brought to a place where they are capable of policing themselves. Maybe then, just maybe, they might be capable of policing the rest of us.
If Labour can win back half the seats they lost in the Red Wall they'll be doing well IMO.
But it won't happen:
1. Tories/right too busy attacking wokeism. So having the Met full of rancid neandertals doesn't fit their narrative.
2. Khan and Labour very clear that they would put the Met to the sword. So very likely that Braverman will do the opposite.
In short - its a political football. And so at least until the next election we get to stand back and watch the Met continue to commit heinous abuses. Sometimes politics is shit. This shouldn't be political but it is.
Almost certainly not under this Home Secretary, who sounds almost as much in denial as the chair of the Police Federation.
Do Labour understand what's needed ?
We don't want the NI experience here - unless you want a police force that has a strange black hole for certain serious crimes.
I would suggest that the political parties get together, come up with a non-political candidate for Police Minister. Kick them into the Lords, with the understanding they'll serve a decade.
Otherwise the police will simply try and wait out a change in government and business as usual.
So not under this government, who are more concerned with playing politics with migrants.
But yes.
Resourcing what's needed is also going to be a problem. Making serious changes, and gaining acceptance for them, is very likely going to require spending more money.
After Major took over, the polls were pretty much nip'n'tuck until the election- the average never got beyond Labour +4 and the biggest single poll lead I can find was Labour +10.
But the polls were wrong in a way that we now understand and correct for. There seems a decent chance that the Conservatives were ahead throughout, really. 1992 was a good win, but not a miracle.
Now, even the most favourable single poll is Labour +10 on the new rules. The average is about Labour +18.
Of course, there's time for that to change. But it will be one of the greatest political stories ever told.
It might even tempt me to vote for them. Craven triangulation certainly won't.
That was West Yorkshire Police.
Two alert and inquisitive officers in South Yorkshire caught him acting suspiciously.
Then found him tooled up and dressed for the occasion.
Ironically. The photofit was the very spit of him.
But WYP were after someone from Sunderland.
Labour will make substantial gains across the country when the election happens but the idea of a Labour landslide has always been fanciful.
It will be nip and tuck whether they can get a majority or are just the biggest party in a hung parliament.
The last two elections had results that didn't reflect anything like the polling a couple of months previously.
EDIT: However, it is another poll that has Con at or above 30% rather than in the 20s...
What does that tell you about regional detective shows?
Incompetent Beyond Belief would be another suitable title.
Even when SYP had him with all the tools he used and some interesting underwear arrangements, being a lorry driver, hanging round a Red Light area, looking identical to the photofit, they still were dubious.
As he had no religious beliefs (they were convinced this was his motive. It wasn't. He was attacking women, not sex workers). And him not being from Sunderland. And that they'd interviewed him double figures times. So it couldn't be him. (Despite almost every male in Yorkshire having been interviewed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCt1yRMjo0A