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SystemSystem Posts: 12,678
edited October 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE15 debates take a big step forward – but what about the Greens?

Sky News, BBC, ITV & Channel 4 plan to hold series of leader debates ahead of General Election http://t.co/naR9pRGjJX pic.twitter.com/F5zxB4QOcS

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    First
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    Dammit. Excluding the Greens increases the chances of the Lib Dems outpolling the Greens.

    Admit it Neil, you work for the broadcasters. This is your doing.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm surprised they're asking for the debates in the campaign period. There has to be a substantial risk of a legal challenge from the Greens or the SNP.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,597
    edited October 2014
    @Scott_P

    Lucky boy aren't you for swerving our bet?

    You said my grovelling apology would be worth seeing when You were proved right and farage wasn't in the debates, so are you going to apologise now?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    I can't see why the Greens should be excluded. Quite apart from anything else, they offer a very different perspective from all of the other four parties on many of the main issues facing the country.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    isam said:

    @Scott_P

    Lucky boy aren't you for swerving our bet?

    You said my grovelling apology would be worth seeing when Farage wasn't in the debates, so are you going to apologise now?

    He's not in the debates yet...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Senior Conservative sources briefing that the Cameron gave Lansley free rein even though he did not understand the proposals are clearly no friends of the PM. How much other stuff has Dave waved through without understanding it?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    SouthamObserver said:

    Senior Conservative sources briefing that the Cameron gave Lansley free rein even though he did not understand the proposals are clearly no friends of the PM. How much other stuff has Dave waved through without understanding it?

    Reading the Times piece, Dave asked Ollie Letwin if he understood Lansley's proposals.

    Letwin nodded his head sagely.

    Ollie Letwin strikes again
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Doubt UKIP will be happy with Farage appearing in one debate while Clegg will be in two....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,888
    FPT: Mr. Eagles, are we to have the media determine the format of debates?

    I must admit, I rather like what they've come up with (insomuch as I can like any aspect of these vile debates and the utterly unacceptable worm), but I am wary of the notion the larger broadcasters should collude to try and dictate the manner of debates.

  • ezekielziggyezekielziggy Posts: 12
    LD's almost certainly will challenge proposals as they are defined as one of three major parties according to ofcom and took part in 3 debates in 2010. Pretty shoddy proposals to be honest, I don't see the need to have 3 different combinations of people. Either 3/3/3, 4/4/4 or 5/5/5.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The broadcasters have, however, been quite clever in giving everyone something to be annoyed about.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    CarlottaVance said:

    Doubt UKIP will be happy with Farage appearing in one debate while Clegg will be in two....

    @JoeWatts_: Farage on TVdebates, ahead of R+S by-election: "If political landscape continues to change we'd expect and ask for inclusion in 2nd debate."
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    CarlottaVance said:

    Doubt UKIP will be happy with Farage appearing in one debate while Clegg will be in two....

    @JoeWatts: Farage on TVdebates, ahead of R+S by-election: "If political landscape continues to change we'd expect and ask for inclusion in 2nd debate."
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    So far, Lib Dems not happy, Farage not happy, Greens not happy if they are excluded, Labour not happy if they are included, Tories not happy with the timing, SNP irrelevant.

    So they are definitely going to happen then...
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Very likely that the Green Party will do a legal challenge to being excluded from the third debate. Whether it's successful might depend on how the opinion polls develop in the next few months. It took a long time for UKIP gradually to approach and then overtake the level of support for the LIb Dems; the Green Party might do the same.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,888
    Mr. P, isn't the plan for:
    4 debates with leaders included as follows
    Cameron/Miliband - 4
    Clegg - 3
    Farage - 1
    ?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited October 2014
    SouthamObserver said:

    Senior Conservative sources briefing that the Cameron gave Lansley free rein even though he did not understand the proposals are clearly no friends of the PM. How much other stuff has Dave waved through without understanding it?

    You have to wonder what "senior Conservative Sources" think they're up to, or who they are trying to help.......
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    ezekielziggy said:

    LD's almost certainly will challenge proposals as they are defined as one of three major parties according to ofcom and took part in 3 debates in 2010. Pretty shoddy proposals to be honest, I don't see the need to have 3 different combinations of people. Either 3/3/3, 4/4/4 or 5/5/5.

    Just one debate with the 5 parties that have won a Westminster seat and do not restrict themselves to one region of the UK ?

    I can see that working, trying to appeal to Labour voters flirting with the Greens whilst also keeping Labour-UKIP potential switchers will be a very tough job for Mr Miliband and probably nullify any UKIP-Con unease I think.

    A 5-5-5 format will work best, or one 2-2 and 1 5-5 maybe.
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    isam said:

    @Scott_P

    Lucky boy aren't you for swerving our bet?

    You said my grovelling apology would be worth seeing when You were proved right and farage wasn't in the debates, so are you going to apologise now?

    Incoming retweet
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MediaGuido: To be fair to the Greens, and we rarely are, they have as much right to be in at least one of the debates as UKIP.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    A head to head between Dave and Ed is going to see Ed get pounded like a Dockside Hooker.

    Labour would be stupid to agree to such a format.

    Can't see the debates happening.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    antifrank said:

    I'm surprised they're asking for the debates in the campaign period. There has to be a substantial risk of a legal challenge from the Greens or the SNP.

    The SNP are a regional party though, if you include the SNP then you have to include Plaid Cyrmu.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    A few interesting snippets from the excellent Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday:

    * Of those certain to vote (63%) it is effectively a dead heat between Labour, Tories and Ukip - note this is before any weighting or adjustments which I would say is good for the blues.

    * Only 71% of current Labour voters voted in 2010 compared to 81% for Tories and Ukip (86% for the Lib Dems). Plenty of fat still for Labour to lose between now and polling day.

    * Of the Ukip voters that voted in 2010 only 27% voted for the Tories.

    * "In a forced choice, if you had to choose between the following candidates to be the Prime Minister, who would you choose?" As you would expect 99% of current Tory voters chose Cameron over Miliband but also 96% of 2010 Tory voters chose Cameron, suggesting the forced choice could well get some voters back (depending on the constituency).

    * But 31% of current Ukip voters would prefer Miliband over Cameron, 33% would prefer Clegg to Cameron, and 80% would prefer Farage to Cameron (including a sizeable chunk of 2010 Con voters suggesting if Ukip end up with a realistic chance in many seats some voters may be persuaded to "vote Ukip and get Ukip").

    It's the blue collar workers the Tory leadership should be worried about, many of the others (middle class or "comfortable") should return to the blues come election day depending on how things go over the next few months. There is very little chance of getting the blue collars to move from Ukip to the Tories as regrettably the party still offers nothing radical for them, but most of them didn't vote Tory anyway in 2010, even if they probably voted for Major or Thatcher previously.

    Source: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Political-Survey-12-October-MoS-Tables.pdf
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    ___Bobajob___ said:

    Incoming retweet

    Worked out what retweet means yet?

    Oh...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNormanS: Lib Dems say not prepared for Nick Clegg to be excluded from on of planned three TV election debates

    Off to a good start...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    I'm surprised they're asking for the debates in the campaign period. There has to be a substantial risk of a legal challenge from the Greens or the SNP.

    The SNP are a regional party though, if you include the SNP then you have to include Plaid Cyrmu.
    The legal problems are all sidestepped if the debates take place before the campaign period.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JohnRentoul: Cameron need do nothing yet to stymie TV debates. Greens have an MP & are entitled to object to UKIP's inclusion.

    @BBCNormanS: I'm thinking Greens will not be happy at being excluded from TV debates cos polling as high as Lib Dems and have one MP like @UKIP

    @philipjcowley: If we have many more parties involved in the debates, it'll look like an episode of The Weakest Link.
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    SNP and The Greens should also be invited to take part in atleast one debate. It is important for SNP to be able to challenge Cameron/Clegg/Miliband on Scottish issues and devomax. Although they are not a UK wide party, they could have many more MP's after May 2015. It is not impossible that they could be asked to support a coalition at Westminster. Also The Greens are getting 5% of the vote in polling, so should have the right to challenge leaders of the main parties in a debate.

    Would SNP and/or The Greens go to court if necessary so they can be included ? If they did, would they win ? I think this is quite possible, but they won't want to stop the leaders debates happening.
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    That picture of Nige has made me realise that Tim is Nigel Farage.

    The gentleman farmer image, the visceral hatred of the Tory party. It all adds up. It was obvious when you think about it.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A head to head between Dave and Ed is going to see Ed get pounded like a Dockside Hooker.

    Labour would be stupid to agree to such a format.

    Can't see the debates happening.

    Dave should just say he'll agree to any format - he's got a decent message. A 'bring it on' attitude would sell well IMHO.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    The 'debates' were sterile, and too easily manipulated by the parties and tv stations, did they really enlighten voters. If the Greens are included their nasty authoritarian streak may be more apparent. If it helps depress their support, then the debates will have had a positive outcome.
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    Scott_P said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:

    Incoming retweet

    Worked out what retweet means yet?

    Oh...
    I'm sure you'll tweet/retweet me to let me know
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    England: Green-Con-Lab-UKIP-Lib Dem
    Scotland: SNP-Con-Lab-Lib Dem
    Wales: PC-Con-Lab-LD
    Northern Ireland: DUP-SDLP-Sinn Fein-Alliance

    Based upon having a seat and not being a 1 seat party ?
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,831
    Pulpstar said:

    Just one debate with the 5 parties that have won a Westminster seat and do not restrict themselves to one region of the UK ?

    Except that it is 6 parties - whilst minor, RESPECT hold a Westminster seat, and are not geographically restricted, but clearly none of the others will want Galloway there...
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Lib Dems say not prepared for Nick Clegg to be excluded from on of planned three TV election debatesu

    Off to a good start...

    The first of many retweets in the ScottP rearguard action

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited October 2014
    ___Bobajob___ said:

    That picture of Nige has made me realise that Tim is Nigel Farage.

    The gentleman farmer image, the visceral hatred of the Tory party. It all adds up. It was obvious when you think about it.

    Yes 'Bob'. Both married to foreigners.
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A head to head between Dave and Ed is going to see Ed get pounded like a Dockside Hooker.

    Labour would be stupid to agree to such a format.

    Can't see the debates happening.

    Cameron would be more concerned with Paxman than Miliband.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. P, isn't the plan for:
    4 debates with leaders included as follows
    Cameron/Miliband - 4
    Clegg - 3
    Farage - 1
    ?

    No its 3:
    Sky/Ch4 Cameron/Miliband
    BBC: + Clegg
    ITV: + Farage + Clegg

    I misread it first too - the Sky/Ch4 debate is a co-production, not two debates.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,180
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A head to head between Dave and Ed is going to see Ed get pounded like a Dockside Hooker.

    Labour would be stupid to agree to such a format.

    Can't see the debates happening.

    Dave has left himself exposed on so many fronts though that even a hopeless incompetent of a leader of the opposition should be able to sway the voters in a head to head with an incumbent PM in difficult times when voters are unhappy with everyone. It's not as if Dave is a political leviathan is it...

    I don't think they're going to happen though. Too many circles to be squared this time out.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,888
    I wonder what odds Ladbrokes would put on the phrase 'I agree with Nick' being used.

    Off-chance it could be used ironically.

    Has Labour objected to Miliband being included in every debate?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    What about the Greens? They are an irrelevance. They are polling reasonably well at the moment by their standards but not by the standards of parties that aspire to government, never mind to lead one. The comparison with UKIP is clear:

    - UKIP has won a parliamentary by-election and finished in the top two in the majority of those held since the start of 2012. The Greens have opted out of about half of them and finished sixth or lower in the rest, losing their deposit each time.

    - UKIP has three times as many councillors as the Greens, and has won the vast majority of them in the last half electoral cycle, implying their true base figure is a good deal higher.

    - UKIP is polling at at least double and perhaps triple the level of the Greens.

    - UKIP won more than three times the number of votes that the various Greens (Eng+Wales, Scot, NI), did combined in the 2010 GE.

    - UKIP topped the polls in the last national election; the Greens finished fourth (though did beat the Lib Dems).

    - UKIP will in all probability contest the great majority of GB seats, if not all of them. The Greens by both their past GE records and their by-election choices since 2010, will not.

    Frankly, the SNP (or an SNP-Plaid combination) has a far better claim to representation than the Greens. Yes, Lucas won in Brighton but how many seconds or thirds did they gain? Indeed, how many retained deposits? True, UKIP didn't do that well on those scores in 2010 but there is a host of evidence that that's changed for the Purples; there is far less so that it's significantly different for the Greens.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Greens demand parity with UKIP

    UKIP demand parity with Lib Dems

    Lib Dems demand parity with Labour/Tories

    It's all going swimmingly
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Scott_P said:

    @MediaGuido: To be fair to the Greens, and we rarely are, they have as much right to be in at least one of the debates as UKIP.

    Nonsense. UKIP are on 25 points on one poll and are around 16/17 in the others. That's an average three times as high as the Greens.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited October 2014
    Scott_P said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:

    Incoming retweet

    Worked out what retweet means yet?

    Oh...
    'Retweet'

    What lisping Ed Miliband's Labour Party are doing in Rochester - running away from the fight.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,097
    Lennon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just one debate with the 5 parties that have won a Westminster seat and do not restrict themselves to one region of the UK ?

    Except that it is 6 parties - whilst minor, RESPECT hold a Westminster seat, and are not geographically restricted, but clearly none of the others will want Galloway there...
    It could be Ed Miliband's worst nightmare if gorgeous George is there too ! Whilst electorally Respect will be complete non entities, he is good value on the telly.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,597
    Scott_P said:

    isam said:

    @Scott_P

    Lucky boy aren't you for swerving our bet?

    You said my grovelling apology would be worth seeing when Farage wasn't in the debates, so are you going to apologise now?

    He's not in the debates yet...
    Ok fair enough

    Listen I don't want to get into a big to do or petty argument about it, but you were incredibly and unnecessarily condescending to me about this, and if I am proved right, the least you can do is apologise and admit you were wrong.

    I can wait until farage actually appears in the debate for that though
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,888
    Ah, thanks, Miss Vance. They did phrase it a bit poorly. Either that or I'm still half-asleep.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    TheWatcher said:

    Scott_P said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:

    Incoming retweet

    Worked out what retweet means yet?

    Oh...
    'Retweet'

    What Lisping Ed Miliband's Labour Party are doing in Rochester.
    Brilliant!
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    CarlottaVance said:

    Doubt UKIP will be happy with Farage appearing in one debate while Clegg will be in two....

    UKIP say they're welcoming the proposals but would expect to be in the second debate "if the political situation changes". I guess that means if they win more than 1 MP.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,180
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Has Labour objected to Miliband being included in every debate?

    Ha! Excellent....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    The Green omission is bizarre and will have to be corrected. Not sure what format would work with 4 or 5 debaters though. It would be more pitch than debate.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Scott_P said:

    Greens demand parity with UKIP

    UKIP demand parity with Lib Dems

    Lib Dems demand parity with Labour/Tories

    It's all going swimmingly

    It's interesting that the Lib Dems are running scared of UKIP. They want 3-3-3 debates apparently.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    isam said:

    you were incredibly and unnecessarily condescending to me about this

    I asked you to define the terms.

    Still waiting...

    I think the reaction to this proposal so far would suggest that the debates as currently outlined are unlikely to take place.

    You will know that ante-post bets are typically not returned if your horse doesn't start. He's not in the debates yet.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Ed in April:

    "I am not that interested in Nigel Farage. I care about debating David Cameron.”

    http://labourlist.org/2014/04/miliband-against-inclusion-of-farage-in-leaders-tv-debates/
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Are Labour going to have to let Ed on the telly SEVERAL TIMES over the GE campaign season?

    Popcorn time!
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    An interesting decision, which some may want to challenge. It is unlikely (the madness of the GCSE case notwithstanding) that the High Court would grant a prerogative remedy against any of the broadcasters. Presumably those who want to challenge this format are now obliged to complain to the relevant regulator, whether the BBC Trust or OfCom, and then impugn any failure of the regulators to mandate the format that they want. The Scottish case at the last election shows the importance of a timely challenge and a good litigation strategy, rather than seeking interim relief halfway through the broadcast of a planned series of debates. Any party wishing to challenge this format needs to be writing letters now...
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    isam said:

    @Scott_P

    Lucky boy aren't you for swerving our bet?

    You said my grovelling apology would be worth seeing when Farage wasn't in the debates, so are you going to apologise now?

    He's not in the debates yet...
    Ok fair enough

    Listen I don't want to get into a big to do or petty argument about it, but you were incredibly and unnecessarily condescending to me about this, and if I am proved right, the least you can do is apologise and admit you were wrong.

    I can wait until farage actually appears in the debate for that though
    The retweet barrage continues
    Scott_P said:

    @JohnRentoul: Cameron need do nothing yet to stymie TV debates. Greens have an MP & are entitled to object to UKIP's inclusion.

    @BBCNormanS: I'm thinking Greens will not be happy at being excluded from TV debates cos polling as high as Lib Dems and have one MP like @UKIP

    @philipjcowley: If we have many more parties involved in the debates, it'll look like an episode of The Weakest Link.

    The retweet barrage continues
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    US States that have instituted Medical Tort reform have not seen costs decrease.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited October 2014
    Ah, bonkers left-wing ideology from the unions, we haven't see that for a long time:

    On the proposed sale of the government stake in Eurostar: A comment from RMT union boss Mick Cash, who says: "This is a gross act of betrayal of the British people by a right wing government hell bent on selling off the family silver regardless of the real cost... This sell off is just a short sighted act of industrial vandalism based on a bankrupt pro-privatisation ideology. RMT will fight this tooth and nail."

    Just like the good old days.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-29570901
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,831
    Socrates said:

    Scott_P said:

    Greens demand parity with UKIP

    UKIP demand parity with Lib Dems

    Lib Dems demand parity with Labour/Tories

    It's all going swimmingly

    It's interesting that the Lib Dems are running scared of UKIP. They want 3-3-3 debates apparently.
    Learnt from the Clegg vs Farage debacle?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,597
    Scott_P said:

    isam said:

    you were incredibly and unnecessarily condescending to me about this

    I asked you to define the terms.

    Still waiting...

    I think the reaction to this proposal so far would suggest that the debates as currently outlined are unlikely to take place.

    You will know that ante-post bets are typically not returned if your horse doesn't start. He's not in the debates yet.
    I am not expecting you to pay up!

    I explicitly defined the terms on more than one occasion and you just ignored me... you even started getting confused about what 9/4 meant, it was quite ridiculous

    The bet is a distant memory, even though I would have won I am not concerned

    I just would like to think you are man enough to admit you were wrong to be so cocky about it. Last time we talked about it you said you looked forward to my grovelling apology when you were proved right.. well it looks like you are going to be wrong, so will you apologise then?

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Richard_Nabavi
    Yes Richard, our state is incapable of running anything, it is best left to foreign states to run them for us.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    isam said:

    well it looks like you are going to be wrong

    No it doesn't really. He's not in the debates yet...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics · 8 mins8 minutes ago
    Nigel Farage is 2/1 favourite to win any 4-way leaders' pre-election TV debate.
    2/1 Farage
    5/2 Cameron
    3/1 Miliband
    3/1 Clegg

    The value there is Ed Miliband. But given that the debates may well not happen, I don't particularly want to give shadsy an interest free loan.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The SNP ran awful 2010 and 2005 General Election campaigns - everything they did made them seem small, parochial and irrelevant. In particular their bleating about not getting to be in the debates for 2010 was pretty poor.

    They have to be very careful about any messaging they attempt this time round.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Smarmeron said:

    @Richard_Nabavi
    Yes Richard, our state is incapable of running anything, it is best left to foreign states to run them for us.

    The state doesn't run Eurostar, but don't let mere reality get in the way.

    It's a company in which the state has a minority shareholding. Why on earth should anyone care if it's sold off?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    Looking back at the vote shares from 2010, Griffin's BNP had double the votes of The Greens. UKIP had about 3.5x the Green Vote as well.

    Respect hardly figure in terms of votes cast, but they end up with Galloway at Westminster.

    As for the regional nationalist parties are they simply ignored?

  • isamisam Posts: 42,597
    TheWatcher said:

    Scott_P said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:

    Incoming retweet

    Worked out what retweet means yet?

    Oh...
    'Retweet'

    What lisping Ed Miliband's Labour Party are doing in Rochester - running away from the fight.
    Haha
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Kellner on the debate proposal:

    Cameron’s internal advice from Lynton Crosby, his strategic adviser, is to try and not to take part in any debates at all because, if you give Nigel Farage an opening, that might [be counter-productive] and also Ed Miliband is sufficiently unpopular at the moment that the last thing David Cameron would want is to be seen on equal terms.

    But that said, this is a very, very smart. The last time we had three debates with the sam cast of leaders. Since then the Liberal Democrats have done so badly, whether you look at opinion polls, or local elections, byelections or the European elections in May, it would be reasonable to say they don’t deserve the same ranking as last time. At the same time, Ukip have been top in the European elections, they are ahead of the Liberal Democrats in the polls, they now have their first elected MP in Westminster - I think it would seem to normal voters out there voters out there that it would be very, very odd to exclude Nigel Farage altogether.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2014/oct/13/jeremy-hunts-commons-statement-on-ebola-politics-live-blog#block-543b987be4b0468f1ec5ca46
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    Bob__Sykes said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A head to head between Dave and Ed is going to see Ed get pounded like a Dockside Hooker.

    Labour would be stupid to agree to such a format.

    Can't see the debates happening.

    Dave has left himself exposed on so many fronts though that even a hopeless incompetent of a leader of the opposition should be able to sway the voters in a head to head with an incumbent PM in difficult times when voters are unhappy with everyone. It's not as if Dave is a political leviathan is it...

    I don't think they're going to happen though. Too many circles to be squared this time out.
    But Ed's crap, look at the conference speeches, Ed forgets the important things.

    Dave is confident and assured.

    Honestly, any Labour people that allow Ed to face Dave in the debates, they will be culpable for such an epochal defeat as the Carthaginians who allowed Hannibal to lead them in battle at Zama.

    Dave "Scipio Africanus" Cameron vs Ed "Hannibal" Miliband one on one debate ain't going to happen.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Lennon said:

    Socrates said:

    Scott_P said:

    Greens demand parity with UKIP

    UKIP demand parity with Lib Dems

    Lib Dems demand parity with Labour/Tories

    It's all going swimmingly

    It's interesting that the Lib Dems are running scared of UKIP. They want 3-3-3 debates apparently.
    Learnt from the Clegg vs Farage debacle?
    Farage obviously wiped the floor with Clegg there, but that was a debate between two halves of the population. In general election debates, I would have thought they fish in different pools. However, I suppose the Lib Dems have collapsed enough, and UKIP have expanded enough, that UKIP have got their own pools completely covered and are now fishing in others.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    What about Plaid?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,597

    Here is the conversation

    I framed the bet clearly

    You pretended to not know what 9/4 was




    isam • Posts: 8,492
    January 16 • edited January 16


    @ScottP said it would be illegal and therefore impossible for Farage to be iinvolved in the leaders debates... I disagreed and said I'd have £100@9/4 that Farage was involved in at least one of the debates... Here was his response

    "isam said:

    Hi

    Did we have that bet on the debates? £100@9/4 Farage appears in at least one

    -------------
    @ScottP said
    I thought you had given up.

    You still have not framed the bet in unambiguous terms.

    George Osborne appeared in at least one nationally televised debate during the general election campaign last time round, as did Alex Salmond, but I suspect that is not what you meant.

    Also, the financial terms are unclear.

    Are you offering to lay 100 @ 4/9 (you win 100, I win 44.44) or are you asking me to lay 100 @ 9/4 (I win 100, you win 225)?

    ------------------

    Whos being awkward here???!! Jesus!

    I'm not a snide, I wasn't trying to have him over, £100@9/4 is very very simple to understand.

    Why did you bottle the bet? @ScottP

    This is an open site, plenty of people know the betting game, why not let an imprtiał observer outline the terms if you don't understand what £100@9/4 mens or "Farage to be involved in at least one of the leader debates" means?

    Mean involved in the same way the three main party leaders in 2010 were, on stage debating for t least part of the programme, not sitting in the audience, not on webcam from the pub etc etc

    but all this fussing makes me think you either don't have the courage of your convictions, or haven't got £225

    -----------------------------------

    Scott_PScott_P • Posts: 4,904

    January 16
    isam said:

    Why did you bottle the bet? @ScottP
    Ok isam, you have a bigger wad than me. Happy now?

    Farage still won't appear.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    A head to head between Dave and Ed is going to see Ed get pounded like a Dockside Hooker.

    Labour would be stupid to agree to such a format.

    Can't see the debates happening.

    Dave has left himself exposed on so many fronts though that even a hopeless incompetent of a leader of the opposition should be able to sway the voters in a head to head with an incumbent PM in difficult times when voters are unhappy with everyone. It's not as if Dave is a political leviathan is it...

    I don't think they're going to happen though. Too many circles to be squared this time out.
    But Ed's crap, look at the conference speeches, Ed forgets the important things.

    Dave is confident and assured.

    Honestly, any Labour people that allow Ed to face Dave in the debates, they will be culpable for such an epochal defeat as the Carthaginians who allowed Hannibal to lead them in battle at Zama.

    Dave "Scipio Africanus" Cameron vs Ed "Hannibal" Miliband one on one debate ain't going to happen.
    Farage v Miliband would be a blinder. Tories should let Cameron take whatever hits Farage lands, just for the joy of watching Ed under extreme fire.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    The obvious solution is 2-4-4 with the Greens in one of the four way debates and UKIP in the other. Let UKIP be in the last debate before the election to sweeten the deal.

    If negotiations fail I guess we'd go back to the default 3-3-3 with UKIP complaining to Ofcom to upgrade them to major party status.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainmartin1: Will the leaders debate story make it to lunchtime? Lib Dems objecting, nationalists complaining + is in Cameron's interest for idea to fail

    And when will someone ask whether it should be Carswell?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    There is no justification for including the Greens this time.

    We can just watch Clegg, Cameron and Farage tag team Ed on just about everything.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. P, isn't the plan for:
    4 debates with leaders included as follows
    Cameron/Miliband - 4
    Clegg - 3
    Farage - 1
    ?

    Re reading the piece, it is going to be 3 debates.

    The Sky News/Channel 4 debate is going to be a joint debate.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Socrates said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Doubt UKIP will be happy with Farage appearing in one debate while Clegg will be in two....

    UKIP say they're welcoming the proposals but would expect to be in the second debate "if the political situation changes". I guess that means if they win more than 1 MP.
    Or the LD polling falls below the Greens?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Richard_Nabavi
    It is necessary to sell off assets, mainly because tax receipts this year will be under expectations.
    George needs a fig leaf to cover his embarrassment.
    What a laffer ehh?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    MP tells the truth shocker:

    Ed Miliband slammed by own MPs as Labour leader told he is 'not an asset on the doorstep' for his party
    Mr Stringer told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “If you go on the doorstep, Ed isn’t an asset to us. I don’t think that is even a controversial thing to say, rather sadly. They [voters] think he doesn’t understand the problems they are suffering.”

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ed-miliband-slammed-by-own-mps-as-labour-leader-told-he-is-not-an-asset-on-the-doorstep-for-his-party-9790701.html

    I was surprised when he said it.....
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited October 2014
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I can't see why the Greens should be excluded. Quite apart from anything else, they offer a very different perspective from all of the other four parties on many of the main issues facing the country.

    Good point. Should the coalition government be allowed two representatives?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited October 2014
    Scott_P said:

    @iainmartin1: Will the leaders debate story make it to lunchtime? Lib Dems objecting, nationalists complaining + is in Cameron's interest for idea to fail

    And when will someone ask whether it should be Carswell?

    Iain Martin spinning for Cameron, who knows he can't beat Farage. The man's frit - happy to toss insults from afar but not man enough to have a contest in the same room.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    I agree with Andrew Sparrow

    AndrewSparrow ‏@AndrewSparrow


    Will TV leaders' debates actually happen? Don't put money on it - My snap analysis -

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2014/oct/13/jeremy-hunts-commons-statement-on-ebola-politics-live-blog#block-543b9ed1e4b0fd64f752f937 …
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited October 2014
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Richard_Nabavi
    Yes Richard, our state is incapable of running anything, it is best left to foreign states to run them for us.

    The state doesn't run Eurostar, but don't let mere reality get in the way.

    It's a company in which the state has a minority shareholding. Why on earth should anyone care if it's sold off?
    It depends what you mean by "the state". The French government owns 55 per cent; HMG has 40 per cent.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    isam said:


    Here is the conversation SNIP

    Oh dear. If reposting the entire thread is what you meant when you said "I don't want to get into a big to do or petty argument about it", then my asking for clarification of your terms seems entirely justified.

    But, once again, everyone else is bored of this.

    You have a MUCH bigger wad than me.

    Happy now?

    He is still not in the debates...
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Looking at the photo at the top of the thread, are Clegg, Cameron and Miliband so alike they now have the same haircut and tailor?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,313
    No Clacton bounce with Populus. Labour still just 1% ahead.

    Latest Populus VI: Lab 36 (+1), Con 35 (+1), LD 9 (=), UKIP 13 (=), Oth 8 (-1).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I guess one way of thinking about who should be in the debates is to think about who may be determinative of the composition of the next government. On that basis, David Cameron and Ed Miliband must be present at all debates. Nick Clegg is likely to have the next largest cohort of MPs, and so in the fairly likely event of a hung Parliament is going to be a major player. Nigel Farage is likely to have some MPs - he is not likely to have many at his disposal, but there's an outside chance that UKIP could vastly outperform expectations that doesn't really exist for the Lib Dems. The Greens will be delighted if they have 2 MPs - the DUP and the SNP are much more likely to be major players.

    How would the pb gurus price up a UKIP:SNP head to head on seat count after the next election?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    JohnO said:

    No Clacton bounce with Populus. Labour still just 1% ahead.

    Latest Populus VI: Lab 36 (+1), Con 35 (+1), LD 9 (=), UKIP 13 (=), Oth 8 (-1).

    Sleazy broken others on the slide.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Will TV leaders' debates actually happen? Don't put money on it -

    You don't say...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Does Dave understand the formats being proposed? Can senior Tory sources let us know?
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    @Carlotta @Socrates

    Indeed it looks like the Tories and PB Tories are running scared of the debates. Looking for any excuse.

    @TSE

    It is often said that the Tories have but two states of mind. Panic. And complacency.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    How on earth did I miss this?

    Married UKIP MEP Roger Helmer – who claimed gay people “undermine” marriage – has appealed for “privacy” after a tabloid newspaper published a report claiming he visited a ‘sleazy’ massage parlour.

    http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2014/10/12/ukips-roger-helmer-who-claimed-gays-undermine-marriage-calls-for-privacy-after-visit-to-alleged-brothel/
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    Enjoying ScottP squirming about ISam's bet.

    Reminds me of his forecast of a Scottish Tory surge.

    Retweet!
  • isamisam Posts: 42,597
    Scott_P said:

    isam said:


    Here is the conversation SNIP

    Oh dear. If reposting the entire thread is what you meant when you said "I don't want to get into a big to do or petty argument about it", then my asking for clarification of your terms seems entirely justified.

    But, once again, everyone else is bored of this.

    You have a MUCH bigger wad than me.

    Happy now?

    He is still not in the debates...
    I tried to patch things up, but you remained arrogant and dismissive

    I probably don't have as much money as many people on here

    I just don't see why you would be so dismissive of the idea, and cocky with me , then refuse to bet etc

    You could have just said "I am not that confident about it" or "I don't want to bet on it"

    It's obvious you lost the argument, people will be able to see that easily enough

    Its just more proof of how people on here NEVER admit when theyre wrong
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    antifrank said:

    I guess one way of thinking about who should be in the debates is to think about who may be determinative of the composition of the next government. On that basis, David Cameron and Ed Miliband must be present at all debates. Nick Clegg is likely to have the next largest cohort of MPs, and so in the fairly likely event of a hung Parliament is going to be a major player. Nigel Farage is likely to have some MPs - he is not likely to have many at his disposal, but there's an outside chance that UKIP could vastly outperform expectations that doesn't really exist for the Lib Dems. The Greens will be delighted if they have 2 MPs - the DUP and the SNP are much more likely to be major players.

    How would the pb gurus price up a UKIP:SNP head to head on seat count after the next election?

    I'd expect the SNP to have more. I expect we'll see both of them doing well in increases in share of the vote, but that won't translate into seats.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JohnRentoul: What I said. TV debates: not going to happen. Statement from Lib Dem spokesperson. http://t.co/k2jeQq5UY8

    Who are apparently Tories now...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,740
    ___Bobajob___ said:

    @Carlotta @Socrates

    Indeed it looks like the Tories and PB Tories are running scared of the debates. Looking for any excuse.

    @TSE

    It is often said that the Tories have but two states of mind. Panic. And complacency.

    Who is being complacent?
This discussion has been closed.

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