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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE15 debates take a big step forward – but what about t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE15 debates take a big step forward – but what about the Greens?
Sky News, BBC, ITV & Channel 4 plan to hold series of leader debates ahead of General Election http://t.co/naR9pRGjJX pic.twitter.com/F5zxB4QOcS
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Admit it Neil, you work for the broadcasters. This is your doing.
Lucky boy aren't you for swerving our bet?
You said my grovelling apology would be worth seeing when You were proved right and farage wasn't in the debates, so are you going to apologise now?
Letwin nodded his head sagely.
Ollie Letwin strikes again
I must admit, I rather like what they've come up with (insomuch as I can like any aspect of these vile debates and the utterly unacceptable worm), but I am wary of the notion the larger broadcasters should collude to try and dictate the manner of debates.
So they are definitely going to happen then...
4 debates with leaders included as follows
Cameron/Miliband - 4
Clegg - 3
Farage - 1
?
I can see that working, trying to appeal to Labour voters flirting with the Greens whilst also keeping Labour-UKIP potential switchers will be a very tough job for Mr Miliband and probably nullify any UKIP-Con unease I think.
A 5-5-5 format will work best, or one 2-2 and 1 5-5 maybe.
Labour would be stupid to agree to such a format.
Can't see the debates happening.
* Of those certain to vote (63%) it is effectively a dead heat between Labour, Tories and Ukip - note this is before any weighting or adjustments which I would say is good for the blues.
* Only 71% of current Labour voters voted in 2010 compared to 81% for Tories and Ukip (86% for the Lib Dems). Plenty of fat still for Labour to lose between now and polling day.
* Of the Ukip voters that voted in 2010 only 27% voted for the Tories.
* "In a forced choice, if you had to choose between the following candidates to be the Prime Minister, who would you choose?" As you would expect 99% of current Tory voters chose Cameron over Miliband but also 96% of 2010 Tory voters chose Cameron, suggesting the forced choice could well get some voters back (depending on the constituency).
* But 31% of current Ukip voters would prefer Miliband over Cameron, 33% would prefer Clegg to Cameron, and 80% would prefer Farage to Cameron (including a sizeable chunk of 2010 Con voters suggesting if Ukip end up with a realistic chance in many seats some voters may be persuaded to "vote Ukip and get Ukip").
It's the blue collar workers the Tory leadership should be worried about, many of the others (middle class or "comfortable") should return to the blues come election day depending on how things go over the next few months. There is very little chance of getting the blue collars to move from Ukip to the Tories as regrettably the party still offers nothing radical for them, but most of them didn't vote Tory anyway in 2010, even if they probably voted for Major or Thatcher previously.
Source: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Political-Survey-12-October-MoS-Tables.pdf
Oh...
Off to a good start...
@BBCNormanS: I'm thinking Greens will not be happy at being excluded from TV debates cos polling as high as Lib Dems and have one MP like @UKIP
@philipjcowley: If we have many more parties involved in the debates, it'll look like an episode of The Weakest Link.
Would SNP and/or The Greens go to court if necessary so they can be included ? If they did, would they win ? I think this is quite possible, but they won't want to stop the leaders debates happening.
The gentleman farmer image, the visceral hatred of the Tory party. It all adds up. It was obvious when you think about it.
Scotland: SNP-Con-Lab-Lib Dem
Wales: PC-Con-Lab-LD
Northern Ireland: DUP-SDLP-Sinn Fein-Alliance
Based upon having a seat and not being a 1 seat party ?
Sky/Ch4 Cameron/Miliband
BBC: + Clegg
ITV: + Farage + Clegg
I misread it first too - the Sky/Ch4 debate is a co-production, not two debates.
I don't think they're going to happen though. Too many circles to be squared this time out.
Off-chance it could be used ironically.
Has Labour objected to Miliband being included in every debate?
- UKIP has won a parliamentary by-election and finished in the top two in the majority of those held since the start of 2012. The Greens have opted out of about half of them and finished sixth or lower in the rest, losing their deposit each time.
- UKIP has three times as many councillors as the Greens, and has won the vast majority of them in the last half electoral cycle, implying their true base figure is a good deal higher.
- UKIP is polling at at least double and perhaps triple the level of the Greens.
- UKIP won more than three times the number of votes that the various Greens (Eng+Wales, Scot, NI), did combined in the 2010 GE.
- UKIP topped the polls in the last national election; the Greens finished fourth (though did beat the Lib Dems).
- UKIP will in all probability contest the great majority of GB seats, if not all of them. The Greens by both their past GE records and their by-election choices since 2010, will not.
Frankly, the SNP (or an SNP-Plaid combination) has a far better claim to representation than the Greens. Yes, Lucas won in Brighton but how many seconds or thirds did they gain? Indeed, how many retained deposits? True, UKIP didn't do that well on those scores in 2010 but there is a host of evidence that that's changed for the Purples; there is far less so that it's significantly different for the Greens.
UKIP demand parity with Lib Dems
Lib Dems demand parity with Labour/Tories
It's all going swimmingly
What lisping Ed Miliband's Labour Party are doing in Rochester - running away from the fight.
Listen I don't want to get into a big to do or petty argument about it, but you were incredibly and unnecessarily condescending to me about this, and if I am proved right, the least you can do is apologise and admit you were wrong.
I can wait until farage actually appears in the debate for that though
Still waiting...
I think the reaction to this proposal so far would suggest that the debates as currently outlined are unlikely to take place.
You will know that ante-post bets are typically not returned if your horse doesn't start. He's not in the debates yet.
"I am not that interested in Nigel Farage. I care about debating David Cameron.”
http://labourlist.org/2014/04/miliband-against-inclusion-of-farage-in-leaders-tv-debates/
Popcorn time!
On the proposed sale of the government stake in Eurostar: A comment from RMT union boss Mick Cash, who says: "This is a gross act of betrayal of the British people by a right wing government hell bent on selling off the family silver regardless of the real cost... This sell off is just a short sighted act of industrial vandalism based on a bankrupt pro-privatisation ideology. RMT will fight this tooth and nail."
Just like the good old days.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-29570901
I explicitly defined the terms on more than one occasion and you just ignored me... you even started getting confused about what 9/4 meant, it was quite ridiculous
The bet is a distant memory, even though I would have won I am not concerned
I just would like to think you are man enough to admit you were wrong to be so cocky about it. Last time we talked about it you said you looked forward to my grovelling apology when you were proved right.. well it looks like you are going to be wrong, so will you apologise then?
Yes Richard, our state is incapable of running anything, it is best left to foreign states to run them for us.
Nigel Farage is 2/1 favourite to win any 4-way leaders' pre-election TV debate.
2/1 Farage
5/2 Cameron
3/1 Miliband
3/1 Clegg
The value there is Ed Miliband. But given that the debates may well not happen, I don't particularly want to give shadsy an interest free loan.
They have to be very careful about any messaging they attempt this time round.
It's a company in which the state has a minority shareholding. Why on earth should anyone care if it's sold off?
Respect hardly figure in terms of votes cast, but they end up with Galloway at Westminster.
As for the regional nationalist parties are they simply ignored?
Cameron’s internal advice from Lynton Crosby, his strategic adviser, is to try and not to take part in any debates at all because, if you give Nigel Farage an opening, that might [be counter-productive] and also Ed Miliband is sufficiently unpopular at the moment that the last thing David Cameron would want is to be seen on equal terms.
But that said, this is a very, very smart. The last time we had three debates with the sam cast of leaders. Since then the Liberal Democrats have done so badly, whether you look at opinion polls, or local elections, byelections or the European elections in May, it would be reasonable to say they don’t deserve the same ranking as last time. At the same time, Ukip have been top in the European elections, they are ahead of the Liberal Democrats in the polls, they now have their first elected MP in Westminster - I think it would seem to normal voters out there voters out there that it would be very, very odd to exclude Nigel Farage altogether.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2014/oct/13/jeremy-hunts-commons-statement-on-ebola-politics-live-blog#block-543b987be4b0468f1ec5ca46
Dave is confident and assured.
Honestly, any Labour people that allow Ed to face Dave in the debates, they will be culpable for such an epochal defeat as the Carthaginians who allowed Hannibal to lead them in battle at Zama.
Dave "Scipio Africanus" Cameron vs Ed "Hannibal" Miliband one on one debate ain't going to happen.
Here is the conversation
I framed the bet clearly
You pretended to not know what 9/4 was
isam • Posts: 8,492
January 16 • edited January 16
@ScottP said it would be illegal and therefore impossible for Farage to be iinvolved in the leaders debates... I disagreed and said I'd have £100@9/4 that Farage was involved in at least one of the debates... Here was his response
"isam said:
Hi
Did we have that bet on the debates? £100@9/4 Farage appears in at least one
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@ScottP said
I thought you had given up.
You still have not framed the bet in unambiguous terms.
George Osborne appeared in at least one nationally televised debate during the general election campaign last time round, as did Alex Salmond, but I suspect that is not what you meant.
Also, the financial terms are unclear.
Are you offering to lay 100 @ 4/9 (you win 100, I win 44.44) or are you asking me to lay 100 @ 9/4 (I win 100, you win 225)?
------------------
Whos being awkward here???!! Jesus!
I'm not a snide, I wasn't trying to have him over, £100@9/4 is very very simple to understand.
Why did you bottle the bet? @ScottP
This is an open site, plenty of people know the betting game, why not let an imprtiał observer outline the terms if you don't understand what £100@9/4 mens or "Farage to be involved in at least one of the leader debates" means?
Mean involved in the same way the three main party leaders in 2010 were, on stage debating for t least part of the programme, not sitting in the audience, not on webcam from the pub etc etc
but all this fussing makes me think you either don't have the courage of your convictions, or haven't got £225
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Scott_PScott_P • Posts: 4,904
January 16
isam said:
Why did you bottle the bet? @ScottP
Ok isam, you have a bigger wad than me. Happy now?
Farage still won't appear.
If negotiations fail I guess we'd go back to the default 3-3-3 with UKIP complaining to Ofcom to upgrade them to major party status.
And when will someone ask whether it should be Carswell?
We can just watch Clegg, Cameron and Farage tag team Ed on just about everything.
The Sky News/Channel 4 debate is going to be a joint debate.
It is necessary to sell off assets, mainly because tax receipts this year will be under expectations.
George needs a fig leaf to cover his embarrassment.
What a laffer ehh?
Ed Miliband slammed by own MPs as Labour leader told he is 'not an asset on the doorstep' for his party
Mr Stringer told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “If you go on the doorstep, Ed isn’t an asset to us. I don’t think that is even a controversial thing to say, rather sadly. They [voters] think he doesn’t understand the problems they are suffering.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ed-miliband-slammed-by-own-mps-as-labour-leader-told-he-is-not-an-asset-on-the-doorstep-for-his-party-9790701.html
I was surprised when he said it.....
AndrewSparrow @AndrewSparrow
Will TV leaders' debates actually happen? Don't put money on it - My snap analysis -
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2014/oct/13/jeremy-hunts-commons-statement-on-ebola-politics-live-blog#block-543b9ed1e4b0fd64f752f937 …
But, once again, everyone else is bored of this.
You have a MUCH bigger wad than me.
Happy now?
He is still not in the debates...
Latest Populus VI: Lab 36 (+1), Con 35 (+1), LD 9 (=), UKIP 13 (=), Oth 8 (-1).
How would the pb gurus price up a UKIP:SNP head to head on seat count after the next election?
Indeed it looks like the Tories and PB Tories are running scared of the debates. Looking for any excuse.
@TSE
It is often said that the Tories have but two states of mind. Panic. And complacency.
Married UKIP MEP Roger Helmer – who claimed gay people “undermine” marriage – has appealed for “privacy” after a tabloid newspaper published a report claiming he visited a ‘sleazy’ massage parlour.
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2014/10/12/ukips-roger-helmer-who-claimed-gays-undermine-marriage-calls-for-privacy-after-visit-to-alleged-brothel/
Reminds me of his forecast of a Scottish Tory surge.
Retweet!
I probably don't have as much money as many people on here
I just don't see why you would be so dismissive of the idea, and cocky with me , then refuse to bet etc
You could have just said "I am not that confident about it" or "I don't want to bet on it"
It's obvious you lost the argument, people will be able to see that easily enough
Its just more proof of how people on here NEVER admit when theyre wrong
Who are apparently Tories now...