Pretty predictable polls really....Conference effects evaporated, UKIP back in the limelight and up in the polls. Next big moves will be down to Rochester, slated for end of November, I believe.
ICM's the gold standard, innit. I'd quite forgetten that. :-) Labour's lead is like one of those spaghetti western characters - The Lead They Couldn't Kill. (A flesh wound in Tory conference week)
Hard to make out what's happening to UKIP's share - going nowhere with YouGov, up a bit or a lot with others, though Stodge may be right the last ICM was a downside outlier for them. Middle prediction seems to be up a few points, but not a total breakthrough. After Rochester, perhaps...
Isam - I've seen it many, many times. It is one of my favourite films of all time.
Up there with The Godfather II, The Avengers, The Lord of the Rings Trilogy, The Dollars Trilogy, and my favourite film of all time, The Wrath of Khan.
Edit - How can I forget Se7en and the Usual Suspects
Your taste for Michael Bay films is seriously concerning, but agree 100% for your vote for the Wrath of Khan!
Also I like the Usual Suspects. Haven't actually seen the others in your list though.
Would this be the same NHS on which Dave waved through billions of pounds worth of restructing, without understanding it? That one?
Yeah that's the one.
The one that Cameron and Lansley wasted billions on reorganising, for no reason other than to flog massive chunks of it to private health Tory donor companies, after promising no top-down re-organisation.
Mr. Hugh, if we're playing the 'who can waste more money' game, why not remind the class how much Labour spent on an NHS database which has to be junked?
Mr. Hugh, if we're playing the 'who can waste more money' game, why not remind the class how much Labour spent on an NHS database which has to be junked?
Or not realising until early 2010 that the PM was overpaid, so introducing a reduction post 2010 election.
Mr. Hugh, if we're playing the 'who can waste more money' game, why not remind the class how much Labour spent on an NHS database which has to be junked?
And who was privatising healthcare in Cambridgeshire.
Meanwhile Labour plan on reorganising the NHS. Again.
Pretty predictable polls really....Conference effects evaporated, UKIP back in the limelight and up in the polls. Next big moves will be down to Rochester, slated for end of November, I believe.
Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen.
The Daily Mail is back to it's normal "Gov't blamed for immigrant Ebola chaos" after the vomit worthy coverage of the CON party conference. Which means the 3% or so of people who just tend to follow whoever is on the telly at the time have now switched to UKIP
Isam - I've seen it many, many times. It is one of my favourite films of all time.
Up there with The Godfather II, The Avengers, The Lord of the Rings Trilogy, The Dollars Trilogy, and my favourite film of all time, The Wrath of Khan.
Edit - How can I forget Se7en and the Usual Suspects
Your taste for Michael Bay films is seriously concerning, but agree 100% for your vote for the Wrath of Khan!
Also I like the Usual Suspects. Haven't actually seen the others in your list though.
Michael Bay films either have big explosions and or Megan Fox in them, plus he makes films that remind me of my childhood, like the Transformers and The Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.
Sam - I always assumed that he only tacs the top two corners, then crawls through. The force of the stone rips the paper even though it's not attached at the bottom..,
In the ANP I found 29% of voters saying they were “moving towards” the party, a higher share than for the Tories, Labour or the Lib Dems. This includes 23% of Conservative voters, 12% of Labour voters and 31% of swing voters (those who either do not know how they will vote or say they may change their minds before election day).
Conservative voters were the least enthusiastic about their own party, with 59% saying they were moving towards the Tories and 13% away – a net score of 46 points. This compared to 63 points for Labour among Labour voters, 53 points for the Lib Dems among (the admittedly scarce) Lib Dem voters and 92 points for UKIP among UKIP voters.
"Certain to vote for stated party rather than someone else" is now: Lab 63%, UKIP 61%, Con 52%, LD 47%.
Survation sees UKIP up six, ICM, sees them up five.
That's a pretty lazy response from someone who reports on opinion polls and presumably knows something about them.
Last month, UKIP were on 9% with ICM - lower than any pollster and I'm pretty sure it's been many weeks since YouGov had UKIP in single figures. Cue much wailing and gnashing of teeth from the purples on here.
I said at the time it was probably an outlier and I'd expect to see UKIP up next month. As Nick P has opined, what ICM shows is a spike from a downward outlier - ICM are still well behind Ashcroft. Survation and Opinium in terms of UKIP numbers.
Conversely, ICM shows higher LD numbers than most other pollsters.
Pretty predictable polls really....Conference effects evaporated, UKIP back in the limelight and up in the polls. Next big moves will be down to Rochester, slated for end of November, I believe.
Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen.
The Daily Mail is back to it's normal "Gov't blamed for immigrant Ebola chaos" after the vomit worthy coverage of the CON party conference. Which means the 3% or so of people who just tend to follow whoever is on the telly at the time have now switched to UKIP
You do have a point in so far as it is no longer required for a political party to have an integrated political philosophy, a coherent political strategy backed up with tested and planned and costed political policies.
Just have a strong and popular message on a few high profile single issues, make a few populist announcements and call it a platform for government.
I'm not sure it will lead to better government, but it is where we seem to be heading.
Survation sees UKIP up six, ICM, sees them up five.
That's a pretty lazy response from someone who reports on opinion polls and presumably knows something about them.
Last month, UKIP were on 9% with ICM - lower than any pollster and I'm pretty sure it's been many weeks since YouGov had UKIP in single figures. Cue much wailing and gnashing of teeth from the purples on here.
I said at the time it was probably an outlier and I'd expect to see UKIP up next month. As Nick P has opined, what ICM shows is a spike from a downward outlier - ICM are still well behind Ashcroft. Survation and Opinium in terms of UKIP numbers.
Conversely, ICM shows higher LD numbers than most other pollsters.
It's a relative thing, Populus failed to show a UKIP bounce today, unlike ICM and Survation.
So I stand by my original observation.
Another poll watcher and reporter, who knows more about these things than I has drawn the same conclusion
Isam - I've seen it many, many times. It is one of my favourite films of all time.
Up there with The Godfather II, The Avengers, The Lord of the Rings Trilogy, The Dollars Trilogy, and my favourite film of all time, The Wrath of Khan.
Edit - How can I forget Se7en and the Usual Suspects
Your taste for Michael Bay films is seriously concerning, but agree 100% for your vote for the Wrath of Khan!
Also I like the Usual Suspects. Haven't actually seen the others in your list though.
Michael Bay films either have big explosions and or Megan Fox in them, plus he makes films that remind me of my childhood, like the Transformers and The Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.
What is not to like?
But his Transformers looked nothing like the toy (or even cartoon) Transformers*, so no it didn't remind me of my childhood
(*for instance Optimus Prime was a flat-fronted truck, not a bonnet-fronted truck as Bay depicted him.)
No one tell "the 45" what percentage the SNP got in Ashcroft's poll please.
Hah just had a look at the tables.
Can anyone point me to a poor subsample table for the SNP in the last fortnight ?
80,000 new SNP members since the indy ref - that is a staggering number for a Scotland only party and as I've said before is the equivalent of almost a million if the party were UK wide.
Is the 80k figure correct ?
80k is total memeber. They already had 25k existing so "Only" got 55k new memebers.
Still a huge surge.
Panic is going to set in the SLAB ranks when some Scotland only polls come out I reckon.
My bet is the Scotland only polls will put SNP/Labour neck and neck (within 2 percentage points). Which would mean big vote gain but very, very few seats going Labour->SNP. If SNP are going to make big seat gains it will have to be at the expense of the Lib Dems but I haven't checked to whta the results were in terms of GE2010 in the Lib Dem seats.
The Lib Dem apocalypse that happened at Holyrood is not generalisable to GE15 as Scottish voters clearly vote differently in Holyrood and Westminster elections.
Re Scottish polls.The last aggregate poll From You Gov Late August to late Sept had SNP 33,Lab 31,Con 20,Lib 6.This would deliver in seats,Lab 39,SNP 18,Con 5,and Lib 3. However since some of polling was done pre referendum vote this understates the current SNP position.The weekend Survation poll wit a small sample of 78 voters produced SNP 47,Lab 326,Con 9,Lib 5,Translating this into seats gives SNP 55,Lab 9,Lib 1.Ed loses 38 seats which could blow his chances of collecting the largest number of seats.
No one tell "the 45" what percentage the SNP got in Ashcroft's poll please.
Hah just had a look at the tables.
Can anyone point me to a poor subsample table for the SNP in the last fortnight ?
80,000 new SNP members since the indy ref - that is a staggering number for a Scotland only party and as I've said before is the equivalent of almost a million if the party were UK wide.
Is the 80k figure correct ?
80k is total memeber. They already had 25k existing so "Only" got 55k new memebers.
Still a huge surge.
Panic is going to set in the SLAB ranks when some Scotland only polls come out I reckon.
My bet is the Scotland only polls will put SNP/Labour neck and neck (within 2 percentage points). Which would mean big vote gain but very, very few seats going Labour->SNP. If SNP are going to make big seat gains it will have to be at the expense of the Lib Dems but I haven't checked to whta the results were in terms of GE2010 in the Lib Dem seats.
The Lib Dem apocalypse that happened at Holyrood is not generalisable to GE15 as Scottish voters clearly vote differently in Holyrood and Westminster elections.
Re Scottish polls.The last aggregate poll From You Gov Late August to late Sept had SNP 33,Lab 31,Con 20,Lib 6.This would deliver in seats,Lab 39,SNP 18,Con 5,and Lib 3. However since some of polling was done pre referendum vote this understates the current SNP position.The weekend Survation poll wit a small sample of 78 voters produced SNP 47,Lab 326,Con 9,Lib 5,Translating this into seats gives SNP 55,Lab 9,Lib 1.Ed loses 38 seats which could blow his chances of collecting the largest number of seats.
@LordAshcroft: Ashcroft National Poll, 10-12 October: CON 28%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 19%, GRN 5%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm
Lab Maj 40. No UKIP seats with Electoral Calculus.
Doesn’t seem right.
At a guess, OKC, such a vote share would give Labour a wafer thin majority, UKIP about ten seats, and the Greens a couple.
As is usual you have to work out how the UKIP vote going to pan out. If they are weak in one or two areas e.g. London/ Scotland then they will be polling much higher elsewhere - the $64,000 question is : where is elsewhere?
Two scenarios:
1) UKIP take votes off Tories equally across the country. Labour gain as much from the Lib Dems as they lose to UKIP. result: Labour Landslide.
2) UKIP take votes off Tories predominantly in areas where the Tories are seen as relative no-hopers e.g. H&M, gain from Labour due to the Rotherham effect and also from voters who would never vote Tory, because their dad would turn in his grave. However in marginal Tory/ Labour seats the UKIP tories vote to keep out Labour (34% would) and the Lib Dems split their vote: result: Conservative - UKIP coalition
The best strategy for the Conservatives, therefore is to pretend that every seat is a marginal seat. Don't state that voting UKIP will let in Labour - let the 'Kippers work it out for themselves.
The best strategy for UKIP is the lib-dem tactic of implying that another party has a substantial lead, but if members of the second party join with UKIP then they can overthow the incumbent.
The best strategy for Labour is to sack Ed Miliband.
Survation sees UKIP up six, ICM, sees them up five.
That's a pretty lazy response from someone who reports on opinion polls and presumably knows something about them.
Last month, UKIP were on 9% with ICM - lower than any pollster and I'm pretty sure it's been many weeks since YouGov had UKIP in single figures. Cue much wailing and gnashing of teeth from the purples on here.
I said at the time it was probably an outlier and I'd expect to see UKIP up next month. As Nick P has opined, what ICM shows is a spike from a downward outlier - ICM are still well behind Ashcroft. Survation and Opinium in terms of UKIP numbers.
Conversely, ICM shows higher LD numbers than most other pollsters.
So in terms of direction of travel the ICM UKIP +5 supports the big increase recorded by Survation at weekend
The he's wrong as well and needs to look at the past data and trends before just tweeting something for the sake of being noticed.
Yes, ICM shows UKIP up but from a very low outlier number of 9% - what it doesn't show is the kind of near 20% shares shown by some other pollsters.
Interesting to note the disparity in Con-Lab numbers as well. Ashcroft has the two devils at 60% but YouGov has them at 71% - absurd difference. In essence, the polls are showing huge volatility - it may be most people haven't engaged with the GE yet and won't until the spring.
Survation sees UKIP up six, ICM, sees them up five.
That's a pretty lazy response from someone who reports on opinion polls and presumably knows something about them.
Last month, UKIP were on 9% with ICM - lower than any pollster and I'm pretty sure it's been many weeks since YouGov had UKIP in single figures. Cue much wailing and gnashing of teeth from the purples on here.
I said at the time it was probably an outlier and I'd expect to see UKIP up next month. As Nick P has opined, what ICM shows is a spike from a downward outlier - ICM are still well behind Ashcroft. Survation and Opinium in terms of UKIP numbers.
Conversely, ICM shows higher LD numbers than most other pollsters.
ELBOW shows UKIP up 1.8% in the course of the last week to 16.2, and up 3.1% since mid-August.
plot these figures into Excel:
ELBOW UKIP % 17th Aug 13.1 24th Aug 13.0 31st Aug 14.5 7th Sep 14.9 14th Sep 15.6 21st Sep 15.3 28th Sep 14.7 5th Oct 14.4 12 Oct 16.2
Do we have a real UKIP level of 16.2?
In elections they are getting significantly higher numbers, are these 'Protest votes in mid to late term' against both incumbent parties (and Labour who aren't picking up much protest vote)?
Are the higher recorded votes in elections reconcilable with lower opinion poll numbers in this context?
Labour don't just have to worry about UKIP. The Greens are taking votes off them. It won't show up well in polls if you believe that not prompting for the Greens would diminish their showing.
Read the comment pages of the Guardian, they are going green. That is where the far left vote is going to go in my opinion.
I am trying to formulate the best way to make money on that. Any tips?
In the ANP I found 29% of voters saying they were “moving towards” the party, a higher share than for the Tories, Labour or the Lib Dems. This includes 23% of Conservative voters, 12% of Labour voters and 31% of swing voters (those who either do not know how they will vote or say they may change their minds before election day).
Conservative voters were the least enthusiastic about their own party, with 59% saying they were moving towards the Tories and 13% away – a net score of 46 points. This compared to 63 points for Labour among Labour voters, 53 points for the Lib Dems among (the admittedly scarce) Lib Dem voters and 92 points for UKIP among UKIP voters.
"Certain to vote for stated party rather than someone else" is now: Lab 63%, UKIP 61%, Con 52%, LD 47%.
If you plough through Ashcroft's marginals polling it reveals the 4-3-2-1 breakdown on the UKIP vote in Tory and Lib Dem marginals
4 in 10: Non voters or "2010 others" 3 in 10: 2010 Tory 2 in 10: 2010 Tory challengers (main) 1 in 10: 2010 Tory challengers (secondary)
Isam - I've seen it many, many times. It is one of my favourite films of all time.
Up there with The Godfather II, The Avengers, The Lord of the Rings Trilogy, The Dollars Trilogy, and my favourite film of all time, The Wrath of Khan.
Edit - How can I forget Se7en and the Usual Suspects
Your taste for Michael Bay films is seriously concerning, but agree 100% for your vote for the Wrath of Khan!
Also I like the Usual Suspects. Haven't actually seen the others in your list though.
Michael Bay films either have big explosions and or Megan Fox in them, plus he makes films that remind me of my childhood, like the Transformers and The Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.
What is not to like?
But his Transformers looked nothing like the toy (or even cartoon) Transformers*, so no it didn't remind me of my childhood
(*for instance Optimus Prime was a flat-fronted truck, not a bonnet-fronted truck as Bay depicted him.)
The punters on here didn't get terribly excited about Clacton, Fitalass.
Rochester is the big one.
It is, it is going to be so epic.
My money is on a Tory hold.
Not sure who wins, TSE, but 1/3 UKIP is surely too short?
Btw, Betfair have opened up a new UKIP seats market with breaks at 5,10, 15,20,25, 26 and over.
No money down yet but I can see it being popular.
It is. I got on UKIP when they 6/5 and 11/10 I think.
On the other market. I'm hanging fire on until the Rochester result.
Yes, I guess most punters will do the same.
In fact if the Blues hold Rochester, UKIP Seats Version 2 will be virtually redundant, because nobody will bet over five. If UKIP win, it will become very active and Version 1 will become redundant, because nobody will bet under five.
If Reckless wins comfortably, 26 seats ain't high enough and we'll need a Version 3!
Would this be the same NHS on which Dave waved through billions of pounds worth of restructing, without understanding it? That one?
Yeah that's the one.
The one that Cameron and Lansley wasted billions on reorganising, for no reason other than to flog massive chunks of it to private health Tory donor companies, after promising no top-down re-organisation.
Isam - I've seen it many, many times. It is one of my favourite films of all time.
Up there with The Godfather II, The Avengers, The Lord of the Rings Trilogy, The Dollars Trilogy, and my favourite film of all time, The Wrath of Khan.
Edit - How can I forget Se7en and the Usual Suspects
Your taste for Michael Bay films is seriously concerning, but agree 100% for your vote for the Wrath of Khan!
Also I like the Usual Suspects. Haven't actually seen the others in your list though.
Michael Bay films either have big explosions and or Megan Fox in them, plus he makes films that remind me of my childhood, like the Transformers and The Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.
What is not to like?
But his Transformers looked nothing like the toy (or even cartoon) Transformers*, so no it didn't remind me of my childhood
(*for instance Optimus Prime was a flat-fronted truck, not a bonnet-fronted truck as Bay depicted him.)
Survation sees UKIP up six, ICM, sees them up five.
That's a pretty lazy response from someone who reports on opinion polls and presumably knows something about them.
Last month, UKIP were on 9% with ICM - lower than any pollster and I'm pretty sure it's been many weeks since YouGov had UKIP in single figures. Cue much wailing and gnashing of teeth from the purples on here.
I said at the time it was probably an outlier and I'd expect to see UKIP up next month. As Nick P has opined, what ICM shows is a spike from a downward outlier - ICM are still well behind Ashcroft. Survation and Opinium in terms of UKIP numbers.
Conversely, ICM shows higher LD numbers than most other pollsters.
ELBOW shows UKIP up 1.8% in the course of the last week to 16.2, and up 3.1% since mid-August.
plot these figures into Excel:
ELBOW UKIP % 17th Aug 13.1 24th Aug 13.0 31st Aug 14.5 7th Sep 14.9 14th Sep 15.6 21st Sep 15.3 28th Sep 14.7 5th Oct 14.4 12 Oct 16.2
Do we have a real UKIP level of 16.2?
In elections they are getting significantly higher numbers, are these 'Protest votes in mid to late term' against both incumbent parties (and Labour who aren't picking up much protest vote)?
Are the higher recorded votes in elections reconcilable with lower opinion poll numbers in this context?
I suspect that percenatge turnout changes those figures. 16% on a 50% turnout doesn’t necessarily mean that on a 75% one. We may well find that those 16 voters (per hundred) still turns out to be 16 when the turnout rises to 150!
Labour don't just have to worry about UKIP. The Greens are taking votes off them. It won't show up well in polls if you believe that not prompting for the Greens would diminish their showing.
Read the comment pages of the Guardian, they are going green. That is where the far left vote is going to go in my opinion.
I am trying to formulate the best way to make money on that. Any tips?
Hmmm....you could try backing Greens in Bristol W (14/1).
Apparently there's a lot of students and other soap-dodgers with votes there.
Labour don't just have to worry about UKIP. The Greens are taking votes off them. It won't show up well in polls if you believe that not prompting for the Greens would diminish their showing.
Read the comment pages of the Guardian, they are going green. That is where the far left vote is going to go in my opinion.
I am trying to formulate the best way to make money on that. Any tips?
Hmmm....you could try backing Greens in Bristol W (14/1).
Apparently there's a lot of students and other soap-dodgers with votes there.
Thanks Mr Punter.
Can't find it on Betfair, they only seem to list certain constituencies, which is annoying because there are quite a few northern constituencies that I'd like to put some money on.
Pretty predictable polls really....Conference effects evaporated, UKIP back in the limelight and up in the polls. Next big moves will be down to Rochester, slated for end of November, I believe.
Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen.
The Daily Mail is back to it's normal "Gov't blamed for immigrant Ebola chaos" after the vomit worthy coverage of the CON party conference. Which means the 3% or so of people who just tend to follow whoever is on the telly at the time have now switched to UKIP
The Daily Mail has been in typical knee jerk mode. One day they had a front page which exploded with indignation as to why we weren't planning to screen incoming passengers. The next day they had an article which said that screening was not worthwhile. Such irrational thoughts are a boost to ukip
Comments
Huffingtonpost - Calm Down About Clacton: 5 By-Election Losses The Tories Swiftly Recovered
Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen.
Hard to make out what's happening to UKIP's share - going nowhere with YouGov, up a bit or a lot with others, though Stodge may be right the last ICM was a downside outlier for them. Middle prediction seems to be up a few points, but not a total breakthrough. After Rochester, perhaps...
Also I like the Usual Suspects. Haven't actually seen the others in your list though.
The one that Cameron and Lansley wasted billions on reorganising, for no reason other than to flog massive chunks of it to private health Tory donor companies, after promising no top-down re-organisation.
That NHS.
C2: LAB 29, TORY 28, UKIP 27
DE: LAB 29, UKIP 27, TORY 23
Meanwhile Labour plan on reorganising the NHS. Again.
What is not to like?
Rochester is the big one.
In the ANP I found 29% of voters saying they were “moving towards” the party, a higher share than for the Tories, Labour or the Lib Dems. This includes 23% of Conservative voters, 12% of Labour voters and 31% of swing voters (those who either do not know how they will vote or say they may change their minds before election day).
Conservative voters were the least enthusiastic about their own party, with 59% saying they were moving towards the Tories and 13% away – a net score of 46 points. This compared to 63 points for Labour among Labour voters, 53 points for the Lib Dems among (the admittedly scarce) Lib Dem voters and 92 points for UKIP among UKIP voters.
"Certain to vote for stated party rather than someone else" is now:
Lab 63%, UKIP 61%, Con 52%, LD 47%.
Last month, UKIP were on 9% with ICM - lower than any pollster and I'm pretty sure it's been many weeks since YouGov had UKIP in single figures. Cue much wailing and gnashing of teeth from the purples on here.
I said at the time it was probably an outlier and I'd expect to see UKIP up next month. As Nick P has opined, what ICM shows is a spike from a downward outlier - ICM are still well behind Ashcroft. Survation and Opinium in terms of UKIP numbers.
Conversely, ICM shows higher LD numbers than most other pollsters.
My money is on a Tory hold.
Just have a strong and popular message on a few high profile single issues, make a few populist announcements and call it a platform for government.
I'm not sure it will lead to better government, but it is where we seem to be heading.
So I stand by my original observation.
Another poll watcher and reporter, who knows more about these things than I has drawn the same conclusion
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
So in terms of direction of travel the ICM UKIP +5 supports the big increase recorded by Survation at weekend
(*for instance Optimus Prime was a flat-fronted truck, not a bonnet-fronted truck as Bay depicted him.)
Your party are in government, your party wasted billions on a scheme even OZZY himself knew to be a pile of doings.
As for Labour: that was then, this is now. When will the government take responsibility?
However since some of polling was done pre referendum vote this understates the current SNP position.The weekend Survation poll wit a small sample of 78 voters produced SNP 47,Lab 326,Con 9,Lib 5,Translating this into seats gives SNP 55,Lab 9,Lib 1.Ed loses 38 seats which could blow his chances of collecting the largest number of seats.
Thanks for clarifying. Thought it sounded familiar
http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2014/10/the-final-four-in-the-richmond-selection-are-named.html
LAB 345 CON 253 LD 24 Other 0 EICIPM
Two scenarios:
1) UKIP take votes off Tories equally across the country. Labour gain as much from the Lib Dems as they lose to UKIP. result: Labour Landslide.
2) UKIP take votes off Tories predominantly in areas where the Tories are seen as relative no-hopers e.g. H&M, gain from Labour due to the Rotherham effect and also from voters who would never vote Tory, because their dad would turn in his grave. However in marginal Tory/ Labour seats the UKIP tories vote to keep out Labour (34% would) and the Lib Dems split their vote: result: Conservative - UKIP coalition
The best strategy for the Conservatives, therefore is to pretend that every seat is a marginal seat. Don't state that voting UKIP will let in Labour - let the 'Kippers work it out for themselves.
The best strategy for UKIP is the lib-dem tactic of implying that another party has a substantial lead, but if members of the second party join with UKIP then they can overthow the incumbent.
The best strategy for Labour is to sack Ed Miliband.
ELBOW shows UKIP up 1.8% in the course of the last week to 16.2, and up 3.1% since mid-August.
plot these figures into Excel:
UKIP Voters Under 55 48%
UKIP Voters 55 and Over 52%
UKIP A/B/C1 Voters 48%
UKIP C2/D/E Voters 52%
UKIP are old & poor my arris!
Btw, Betfair have opened up a new UKIP seats market with breaks at 5,10, 15,20,25, 26 and over.
No money down yet but I can see it being popular.
Yes, ICM shows UKIP up but from a very low outlier number of 9% - what it doesn't show is the kind of near 20% shares shown by some other pollsters.
Interesting to note the disparity in Con-Lab numbers as well. Ashcroft has the two devils at 60% but YouGov has them at 71% - absurd difference. In essence, the polls are showing huge volatility - it may be most people haven't engaged with the GE yet and won't until the spring.
On the other market. I'm hanging fire on until the Rochester result.
In elections they are getting significantly higher numbers, are these 'Protest votes in mid to late term' against both incumbent parties (and Labour who aren't picking up much protest vote)?
Are the higher recorded votes in elections reconcilable with lower opinion poll numbers in this context?
Read the comment pages of the Guardian, they are going green. That is where the far left vote is going to go in my opinion.
I am trying to formulate the best way to make money on that. Any tips?
4 in 10: Non voters or "2010 others"
3 in 10: 2010 Tory
2 in 10: 2010 Tory challengers (main)
1 in 10: 2010 Tory challengers (secondary)
Yes the enthusiasm gap for the parties is interesting. I dont find it surprising given the Tories' unfunded tax cut - people aren't that dim.
In fact if the Blues hold Rochester, UKIP Seats Version 2 will be virtually redundant, because nobody will bet over five. If UKIP win, it will become very active and Version 1 will become redundant, because nobody will bet under five.
If Reckless wins comfortably, 26 seats ain't high enough and we'll need a Version 3!
(genuine question)
http://tfwiki.net/wiki/File:Convoy-final1024.jpg
Apparently there's a lot of students and other soap-dodgers with votes there.
Can't find it on Betfair, they only seem to list certain constituencies, which is annoying because there are quite a few northern constituencies that I'd like to put some money on.
As UKIP get ever more popular their voters reflect the makeup of society and are not limited to odd subgroups.
HammerHammond of the Scots?HammerHammond of the Scots?HammerHammond of the Scots?HammerHammond of the Scots?