Turkey's KEY motivation in all this is to not let an independent Kurdistan come into being. They're very wary of anything that defends or promotes 'Kurdism'. Hence they sit a few hundred yards away from a Kurdish massacre (over the border). We need boots on the ground to fight IS - Kurdish Peshmerga boots - but Turkey ain't gonna help that AT ALL.
Indeed - so long as IS don't explicitly invade Turkey then they won't fight them. So IS won't unless they are particularly stupid. And they seem to be cruel and evil but definitely not stupid.
Sunny Hundal @sunny_hundal · 1m1 minute ago It makes no sense to exclude Greens but include UKIP in election TV debates, whether going by number of seats or polling. Media stitch-up
Except UKIP are on three times the polling as the Greens...
It's a twitter quote from a respected political commentator, Socrates. I only thought it was relevant to the current thread.
I was disagreeing with Hundal, not your good self.
Sunny Hundal @sunny_hundal · 1m1 minute ago It makes no sense to exclude Greens but include UKIP in election TV debates, whether going by number of seats or polling. Media stitch-up
Except UKIP are on three times the polling as the Greens...
Sunny Hundal @sunny_hundal · 1m1 minute ago It makes no sense to exclude Greens but include UKIP in election TV debates, whether going by number of seats or polling. Media stitch-up
Except UKIP are on three times the polling as the Greens...
It's a twitter quote from a respected political commentator, Socrates. I only thought it was relevant to the current thread.
I was disagreeing with Hundal, not your good self.
Sunny Hundal @sunny_hundal · 1m1 minute ago It makes no sense to exclude Greens but include UKIP in election TV debates, whether going by number of seats or polling. Media stitch-up
Except UKIP are on three times the polling as the Greens...
With the exception of the rise of UKIP and Cameron's EU treaty veto bounce, the polling for this parliament has been very stable. It has been close to static over the last year.
The Whopper (the big five plus Plaid and the SNP) 50% The Famous Five 23% The Four Musketeers 8% The Three Stooges 4% Dumb & Dumber 3% No Thank You 11%
Half of them want a seven-way debate? How crap would that be? No-one would have the time to lay out a vision or establish themselves, and it would inevitably devolve into a rowdy shouting match. Look at the chaos on QT with only five panelists, and the pressure to be heard there is a fraction of what it will be in the debates.
All of which strongly reinforces my view/prejudice of Guardianistas as moronic idealogues.
More than £250,000 of suspected Islamic State (IS) funds have been seized at Manchester Airport and other north-west ports in the past year, anti-terrorist officers said.
The NW Counter Terrorism Unit used civil powers under the Terrorism Act to confiscate cash found hidden in luggage or under clothing.
Most was seized from passengers flying from Manchester to Turkey, said police.
I also got the AV result right, and was just about the only pb-er to call the 2010 election right, along with Bob Sykes, I think: A Tory NOM..
I did - although to be fair the Tories did win a number of northern marginals I had consistently said, even when the Tories were 20 points clear in the polls, they simply wouldn't win (Pendle, Rossendale etc), and it was my perception that the Tories were still uniformly toxic across the north which underpinned my predictions of no more than 300 seats. They did a bit better up here than I expected, and Labour were surprisingly more resilient in places you'd not have expected them to be. Plus they didn't make the gains from the LDs that I assumed. So I broadly got it right, but not necessarily for all the right reasons!
I hasten to add that if I rated the Tories 7/10 on the "northern toxicity scale" in 2010, i would say in 2014 it's now about 9.
Largely self-inflicted pain too, like cutting the totemic 50p band too soon and the pointless and expensive NHS re-organisation which the likes of me (and probably SeanT too) were decrying as an impending catastrophe in the face of others on the PB Right bigging up the wise and learned Lansley.
And they've got a surging UKIP, nearly winning the constituency a mile down the road from mine, and a collapsing LD vote to contend with!
I'd say Cameron's prospects in 2015 look about as rosy as Major's did in 1997! Major though had to contend with voter ennui at 18 years of the same old Tory faces and a youthful and vibrant Blair re-energising the nation.
Cameron's battling someone who can't even master a bacon sandwich.
It depends which week it is. Given Miliband's recent speech and his woeful flight from Heywood he probably holds the dumber crown at the moment but I never discount Cameron's ability to put his foot in his mouth. I'm sure there is another Rebekah's horse episode just around the corner. He looked pretty furtive and cringing on the TV this morning talking about the debates, as it goes, in the way he refused to even say the name UKIP. It was pretty puerile.
The Sunil on Sunday presents its latest ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week), for week-ending 12th October. Includes all polls with fieldwork end-dates 5th to 11th October inclusive. There were 11 such polls, with a total weighted sample-size of 16,396 (in brackets are changes from last week).
The Whopper (the big five plus Plaid and the SNP) 50% The Famous Five 23% The Four Musketeers 8% The Three Stooges 4% Dumb & Dumber 3% No Thank You 11%
Half of them want a seven-way debate? How crap would that be? No-one would have the time to lay out a vision or establish themselves, and it would inevitably devolve into a rowdy shouting match. Look at the chaos on QT with only five panelists, and the pressure to be heard there is a fraction of what it will be in the debates.
All of which strongly reinforces my view/prejudice of Guardianistas as moronic idealogues.
I suspect the Scots Nats have been piling in. Its a voodoo poll after all
No one tell "the 45" what percentage the SNP got in Ashcroft's poll please.
Hah just had a look at the tables.
Can anyone point me to a poor subsample table for the SNP in the last fortnight ?
80,000 new SNP members since the indy ref - that is a staggering number for a Scotland only party and as I've said before is the equivalent of almost a million if the party were UK wide.
I understand there may be three more Star Wars films - they would have to be sequels this time. I don't know the latin word for nine films. I would have thought the British film industry will get some investment of some sorts.
Yet another of Dan "The Anti Tipster" Hodges' forecasts to go bust?
So far:
D. Miliband to win Lab leadership A. Murray to lose 2013 Wimbledon final N. Clegg to resign
If Dan bets on red, shovel everything you have on black
Hodges is constructing quite a portfolio of embarrassingly inaccurate predictions. He was telling us all for months that the YES vote didn't have a chance in the indyref, then suddenly in the last week he was all Oh yes of course the SNP might win but it won't matter much...
Risible.
He's a very fine writer, an interesting thinker, and a nice guy - but his soothsaying skills are, frankly, shite.
Shall I remind you of your performance during the last weeks of the Indyref ?
You went all ponceyboots Gaylord over one poll and you were acting like it was the fall of Singapore.
Best of all, SeanT and Dan Hodges share in common one tip - David Miliband for Labour party leader.
Ouch.
We all tipped David Miliband for leader, in that final week. How many pb-ers can say otherwise?
I can. I predicted an EdM win and a hung Parliament in 2010, having switched from a Tory majority position. I also forecast a Boris victory in 2008, which is what brought me to this place initially.
If I get it right, it's so obvious that it's not worth crowing about.
The Sunil on Sunday presents its latest ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week), for week-ending 12th October. Includes all polls with fieldwork end-dates 5th to 11th October inclusive. There were 11 such polls, with a total weighted sample-size of 16,396 (in brackets are changes from last week).
If UKIP are on 14% with ICM, they are definitely on at least 14%.
Feeding that into Electoral Calculus gives:
Con 250 Lab 346 LD 26 UKIP 0
I suspect that UKIP will do better than that, Clacton.
Boston and Skegness will go too. For sure.
Have the Kippers selected a candidate for Boston yet? For what must be as close as they are ever going to get to a 'gimme' it seems like they are being somewhat slow about it. Lack of a genuine local candidate? Waiting for a defector from somewhere else that needs a 'safe seat' as their current one isn't Kippery (eg Zac Goldsmith or Kate Hoey)
Turkey's KEY motivation in all this is to not let an independent Kurdistan come into being. They're very wary of anything that defends or promotes 'Kurdism'. Hence they sit a few hundred yards away from a Kurdish massacre (over the border). We need boots on the ground to fight IS - Kurdish Peshmerga boots - but Turkey ain't gonna help that AT ALL.
Indeed - so long as IS don't explicitly invade Turkey then they won't fight them. So IS won't unless they are particularly stupid. And they seem to be cruel and evil but definitely not stupid.
East Lindsey Euro results (which includes Horncastle and Louth)
UKIP 44.00% Con 28.00% Lab 13.00% LD 5.00% Green 4.00% Other 6.00%
The seat includes Mablethorpe and the other seaside resorts north of Skegness so its potential UKIP territory. Unfortunately the County Council results are heavily influenced by a large Lincolnshire independents vote and UKIP didn't fight all the CC seats. So the 2013 CC results don't tell us much.
The Whopper (the big five plus Plaid and the SNP) 50% The Famous Five 23% The Four Musketeers 8% The Three Stooges 4% Dumb & Dumber 3% No Thank You 11%
Half of them want a seven-way debate? How crap would that be? No-one would have the time to lay out a vision or establish themselves, and it would inevitably devolve into a rowdy shouting match. Look at the chaos on QT with only five panelists, and the pressure to be heard there is a fraction of what it will be in the debates.
All of which strongly reinforces my view/prejudice of Guardianistas as moronic idealogues.
I suspect the Scots Nats have been piling in. Its a voodoo poll after all
Ah. That's quiet possibly what happened. The Nats tend to flock together, don't they.
The Sunil on Sunday presents its latest ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week), for week-ending 12th October. Includes all polls with fieldwork end-dates 5th to 11th October inclusive. There were 11 such polls, with a total weighted sample-size of 16,396 (in brackets are changes from last week).
Changes from our very first ELBOW, week-ending 17th August:
Lab -2.1% Con -1.6% UKIP +3.1% LD -0.7%
Lab lead -0.5%
UKIP rising LD seem to be stabilising Lab and Con both falling
Sunil
Why does The Sunil On Sunday come out on a Monday?
(Thinks....somehow I have a feeling I'm going to regret asking this.)
Um, we blame some of the pollsters for not releasing their tables on time! (I had to mail Opinium a couple of hours back, but they did get back to me pronto - thanks Adam D!)
The Sunil on Sunday presents its latest ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week), for week-ending 12th October. Includes all polls with fieldwork end-dates 5th to 11th October inclusive. There were 11 such polls, with a total weighted sample-size of 16,396 (in brackets are changes from last week).
Changes from our very first ELBOW, week-ending 17th August:
Lab -2.1% Con -1.6% UKIP +3.1% LD -0.7%
Lab lead -0.5%
UKIP rising LD seem to be stabilising Lab and Con both falling
Sunil
Why does The Sunil On Sunday come out on a Monday?
(Thinks....somehow I have a feeling I'm going to regret asking this.)
Um, we blame some of the pollsters for not releasing their tables on time! (I had to mail Opinium a couple of hours back, but they did get back to me pronto - thanks Adam D!)
@LordAshcroft: Ashcroft National Poll, 10-12 October: CON 28%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 19%, GRN 5%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm
Maybe on those figures the fairest option for the debates would be to go with 3-3-3, with the third place rotating between Farage, Clegg and Farage again.
If UKIP are on 14% with ICM, they are definitely on at least 14%.
Feeding that into Electoral Calculus gives:
Con 250 Lab 346 LD 26 UKIP 0
I suspect that UKIP will do better than that, Clacton.
Boston and Skegness will go too. For sure.
Have the Kippers selected a candidate for Boston yet? For what must be as close as they are ever going to get to a 'gimme' it seems like they are being somewhat slow about it. Lack of a genuine local candidate? Waiting for a defector from somewhere else that needs a 'safe seat' as their current one isn't Kippery (eg Zac Goldsmith or Kate Hoey)
Don't understand all this talk about a possible Zac Goldsmith defection. It strikes me as wholly unlikely. The only reason I can see is that his father helped found the party, but as with Jemima I don't think the political views of either sibling have much in common with those of the late Sir James.
No one tell "the 45" what percentage the SNP got in Ashcroft's poll please.
Hah just had a look at the tables.
Can anyone point me to a poor subsample table for the SNP in the last fortnight ?
80,000 new SNP members since the indy ref - that is a staggering number for a Scotland only party and as I've said before is the equivalent of almost a million if the party were UK wide.
Is the 80k figure correct ?
80k is total memeber. They already had 25k existing so "Only" got 55k new memebers.
No one tell "the 45" what percentage the SNP got in Ashcroft's poll please.
Hah just had a look at the tables.
Can anyone point me to a poor subsample table for the SNP in the last fortnight ?
80,000 new SNP members since the indy ref - that is a staggering number for a Scotland only party and as I've said before is the equivalent of almost a million if the party were UK wide.
Is the 80k figure correct ?
80k is total memeber. They already had 25k existing so "Only" got 55k new memebers.
Still a huge surge.
Panic is going to set in the SLAB ranks when some Scotland only polls come out I reckon.
Is Heywood and Middleton a sort of General Election predictor -
Labour win but very narrowly and unconvincingly, the Conservatives fail to impress too with UKIP surging ahead in votes but failing to take many seats ?
No one tell "the 45" what percentage the SNP got in Ashcroft's poll please.
Hah just had a look at the tables.
Can anyone point me to a poor subsample table for the SNP in the last fortnight ?
80,000 new SNP members since the indy ref - that is a staggering number for a Scotland only party and as I've said before is the equivalent of almost a million if the party were UK wide.
Is the 80k figure correct ?
80k is total memeber. They already had 25k existing so "Only" got 55k new memebers.
Still a huge surge.
Panic is going to set in the SLAB ranks when some Scotland only polls come out I reckon.
My bet is the Scotland only polls will put SNP/Labour neck and neck (within 2 percentage points). Which would mean big vote gain but very, very few seats going Labour->SNP. If SNP are going to make big seat gains it will have to be at the expense of the Lib Dems but I haven't checked to whta the results were in terms of GE2010 in the Lib Dem seats.
The Lib Dem apocalypse that happened at Holyrood is not generalisable to GE15 as Scottish voters clearly vote differently in Holyrood and Westminster elections.
The ICM does appear to back up Survation and UKIP surge.
No it doesn't. It's fascinating to see what short memories some people have. Last month, and indeed for every month since time immaterial, I've been telling people that ICM is perfectly capable and has a history of throwing out occasional outlier numbers for individual parties.
The 9% UKIP number last month (down seven from August) was one such. The "surge" today needs to be seen in that context and this is a correction from last month which had all the UKIP fans on here wailing.
The key number today is of course not the UKIP number in isolation but the Conservative number of around 30% which is in contrast to YouGov's 35% but sits well with other pollsters.
Beyond that, Ashcroft has Con-UKIP at 47%, ICM has it at 45%. That's the key ratio for next year - the Conservatives need that vote to split differently from 28-19 or 31-14 to more likely 38-8. If that doesn't happen, the Conservatives won't het anywhere near a majority.
Thanks - however, will include that next week as (to keep things consistent) we define an "ELBOW week" as everything with f/work end-dates from Sunday to Saturday (eg. 5th Oct to 11th Oct).
If UKIP are on 14% with ICM, they are definitely on at least 14%.
Feeding that into Electoral Calculus gives:
Con 250 Lab 346 LD 26 UKIP 0
I suspect that UKIP will do better than that, Clacton.
Boston and Skegness will go too. For sure.
Have the Kippers selected a candidate for Boston yet? For what must be as close as they are ever going to get to a 'gimme' it seems like they are being somewhat slow about it. Lack of a genuine local candidate? Waiting for a defector from somewhere else that needs a 'safe seat' as their current one isn't Kippery (eg Zac Goldsmith or Kate Hoey)
I don't think they have selected a candidate yet... maybe they are waiting for someone. I don't think it will be Neil Hamilton
Yet another of Dan "The Anti Tipster" Hodges' forecasts to go bust?
So far:
D. Miliband to win Lab leadership A. Murray to lose 2013 Wimbledon final N. Clegg to resign
If Dan bets on red, shovel everything you have on black
Hodges is constructing quite a portfolio of embarrassingly inaccurate predictions. He was telling us all for months that the YES vote didn't have a chance in the indyref, then suddenly in the last week he was all Oh yes of course the SNP might win but it won't matter much...
Risible.
He's a very fine writer, an interesting thinker, and a nice guy - but his soothsaying skills are, frankly, shite.
Shall I remind you of your performance during the last weeks of the Indyref ?
You went all ponceyboots Gaylord over one poll and you were acting like it was the fall of Singapore.
Best of all, SeanT and Dan Hodges share in common one tip - David Miliband for Labour party leader.
Ouch.
We all tipped David Miliband for leader, in that final week. How many pb-ers can say otherwise?
I can. I predicted an EdM win and a hung Parliament in 2010, having switched from a Tory majority position. I also forecast a Boris victory in 2008, which is what brought me to this place initially.
If I get it right, it's so obvious that it's not worth crowing about.
Southam, I'm close to asking you and Dan Hodges to categorically, unequivocally, and definitively predict that I WILL be made redundant in the next five years, in the hope that your collective anti-prediction mojo keeps my job safe.
The ICM does appear to back up Survation and UKIP surge.
No it doesn't. It's fascinating to see what short memories some people have. Last month, and indeed for every month since time immaterial, I've been telling people that ICM is perfectly capable and has a history of throwing out occasional outlier numbers for individual parties.
The 9% UKIP number last month (down seven from August) was one such. The "surge" today needs to be seen in that context and this is a correction from last month which had all the UKIP fans on here wailing.
The key number today is of course not the UKIP number in isolation but the Conservative number of around 30% which is in contrast to YouGov's 35% but sits well with other pollsters.
Beyond that, Ashcroft has Con-UKIP at 47%, ICM has it at 45%. That's the key ratio for next year - the Conservatives need that vote to split differently from 28-19 or 31-14 to more likely 38-8. If that doesn't happen, the Conservatives won't het anywhere near a majority.
Survation sees UKIP up six, ICM, sees them up five.
Isam - I've seen it many, many times. It is one of my favourite films of all time.
Up there with The Godfather II, The Avengers, The Lord of the Rings Trilogy, The Dollars Trilogy, and my favourite film of all time, The Wrath of Khan.
Edit - How can I forget Se7en and the Usual Suspects
I imagine stuff like this will influence the parties ongoing responses to the debates negotiations. From Ashcroft's Conhome piece on his new poll
Meanwhile, as last week’s by-elections suggest, UKIP continue to have momentum on their side. In the ANP I found 29 per cent of voters saying they were “moving towards” the party, a higher share than for the Tories, Labour or the Lib Dems. This includes 23 per cent of Conservative voters, 12 per cent of Labour voters and 31 per cent of swing voters (those who either do not know how they will vote or say they may change their minds before election day).
Conservative voters were the least enthusiastic about their own party, with 59 per cent saying they were moving towards the Tories and 13 per cent away – a net score of 46 points. This compared to 63 points for Labour among Labour voters, 53 points for the Lib Dems among (the admittedly scarce) Lib Dem voters and 92 points for UKIP among UKIP voters
Incidentally, caught the back end of a programme on BBC4, 8-9pm, about Rome and its religious history. Was disappointed, frankly, that when the Crisis of the Third Century was raised the presenter immediately leapt to Diocletian and the purges.
For a start, the Gothic Claudius and Aurelian restored the empire (reclaiming the Palmyrene and Gallic territories for the 'real' empire). In addition, Diocletian only conducted the purges later in his reign (I'd need to check but I think things were relatively stable by that time) rather than as an immediate act to try and prevent the gods being angry at Christian worship (or neglect of themselves, if you prefer).
Perhaps that's an unfair criticism. It irks me when Aurelian is overlooked.
Take London out, and what do you have left? A three way dust-up.
It equals their previous high. I wish the pollsters would report their results using the standard English regions and not their own useless subsets.....
Comments
Video of Carswell reducing the Establishment to silence coming in 3 mins...
Then again, Douglas Iscariot said the same thing back in March.
Judas had the decency to hang himself after his betrayal.
Con 31 (-2) Lab 35 (nc) LD 11 (+1) UKIP 14 (+5)
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/13/ukip-support-surges-after-byelection-success-guardian-icm-poll
All of which strongly reinforces my view/prejudice of Guardianistas as moronic idealogues.
A few days ago the BBC lead with £30k being raised by Muslim charities for Alan Henning´s family.
I hasten to add that if I rated the Tories 7/10 on the "northern toxicity scale" in 2010, i would say in 2014 it's now about 9.
Largely self-inflicted pain too, like cutting the totemic 50p band too soon and the pointless and expensive NHS re-organisation which the likes of me (and probably SeanT too) were decrying as an impending catastrophe in the face of others on the PB Right bigging up the wise and learned Lansley.
And they've got a surging UKIP, nearly winning the constituency a mile down the road from mine, and a collapsing LD vote to contend with!
I'd say Cameron's prospects in 2015 look about as rosy as Major's did in 1997! Major though had to contend with voter ennui at 18 years of the same old Tory faces and a youthful and vibrant Blair re-energising the nation.
Cameron's battling someone who can't even master a bacon sandwich.
Very droll
Dumb and Dumber - which is which?
Con 250
Lab 346
LD 26
UKIP 0
I suspect that UKIP will do better than that, Clacton.
http://order-order.com/2014/10/13/watch-carswell-silences-the-establishment/
Sussex need 28 from 3 overs to win? No chance, 50/1!
I understand he is still what is classed as a "Non-dom", or a "Non-Dom".
Very charming on Tv - he appears to be quite passionate about power of recall.
The Sunil on Sunday presents its latest ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week), for week-ending 12th October. Includes all polls with fieldwork end-dates 5th to 11th October inclusive. There were 11 such polls, with a total weighted sample-size of 16,396 (in brackets are changes from last week).
Lab 34.1% (-1.5)
Con 31.5 (-1.1)
UKIP 16.2% (+1.8)
LD 8.1% (+0.7)
Lab lead 2.6% (-0.3)
Changes from our very first ELBOW, week-ending 17th August:
Lab -2.1%
Con -1.6%
UKIP +3.1%
LD -0.7%
Lab lead -0.5%
UKIP rising
LD seem to be stabilising
Lab and Con both falling
Can anyone point me to a poor subsample table for the SNP in the last fortnight ?
80,000 new SNP members since the indy ref - that is a staggering number for a Scotland only party and as I've said before is the equivalent of almost a million if the party were UK wide.
Is the 80k figure correct ?
http://www.theguardian.com/film/2014/oct/13/star-wars-fans-remake-the-empire-strikes-back
EDITED
If I get it right, it's so obvious that it's not worth crowing about.
Why does The Sunil On Sunday come out on a Monday?
(Thinks....somehow I have a feeling I'm going to regret asking this.)
Doesn’t seem right.
UKIP 44.00%
Con 28.00%
Lab 13.00%
LD 5.00%
Green 4.00%
Other 6.00%
The seat includes Mablethorpe and the other seaside resorts north of Skegness so its potential UKIP territory. Unfortunately the County Council results are heavily influenced by a large Lincolnshire independents vote and UKIP didn't fight all the CC seats. So the 2013 CC results don't tell us much.
Ashcroft: Ed Miliband PM, Majority 40
ICM: Ed Miliband PM, Majority 42
Swingback crossover swingback crossover tick tock tick tock....
Tory range 27-33
Labour range 30-35
Call it 2 points.
UKIP 19 - the LD to Kippers creeping up, vote in Wales/SW up.
I'd be miffed if they didn't win !
Not such a dumb question then. Phew.
Telegraph News @TelegraphNews
Philip Hammond says he hopes the experience of Scotland's referendum 'will be a useful model for Iraq' http://fw.to/KXB1snE
So this is another Ashcroft?
Panic is going to set in the SLAB ranks when some Scotland only polls come out I reckon.
MPs predicting Michael Gove may move writ tomorrow for Rochester & Strood by-election on Nov 20. Tories holding primary to pick candidate
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Post-Conference-poll-summary-October-2014.pdf
Then let the rest - UKIP, SNP, Lib Dem, Green - debate amongst themselves in a second.
Labour win but very narrowly and unconvincingly, the Conservatives fail to impress too with UKIP surging ahead in votes but failing to take many seats ?
The Lib Dem apocalypse that happened at Holyrood is not generalisable to GE15 as Scottish voters clearly vote differently in Holyrood and Westminster elections.
Such as some Lib Dem gains, and some Labour losses to the Tories.
Of course there's an inherent danger of reading too much in the Heywood and Middleton result on a low turnout.
The 9% UKIP number last month (down seven from August) was one such. The "surge" today needs to be seen in that context and this is a correction from last month which had all the UKIP fans on here wailing.
The key number today is of course not the UKIP number in isolation but the Conservative number of around 30% which is in contrast to YouGov's 35% but sits well with other pollsters.
Beyond that, Ashcroft has Con-UKIP at 47%, ICM has it at 45%. That's the key ratio for next year - the Conservatives need that vote to split differently from 28-19 or 31-14 to more likely 38-8. If that doesn't happen, the Conservatives won't het anywhere near a majority.
England: Lab 33, Tory 30, UKIP 21.
Take London out, and what do you have left? A three way dust-up.
Tories still got a long way to fall if we assume history is to repeat itself then
I'm close to asking you and Dan Hodges to categorically, unequivocally, and definitively predict that I WILL be made redundant in the next five years, in the hope that your collective anti-prediction mojo keeps my job safe.
How did he blue tac the corners of the poster to the wall from the tunnel?
206 days to go, polls nosing back towards normal service
Isam - I've seen it many, many times. It is one of my favourite films of all time.
Up there with The Godfather II, The Avengers, The Lord of the Rings Trilogy, The Dollars Trilogy, and my favourite film of all time, The Wrath of Khan.
Edit - How can I forget Se7en and the Usual Suspects
Would this be the same NHS on which Dave waved through billions of pounds worth of restructing, without understanding it? That one?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Independence_Party#mediaviewer/File:European_Parliament_election_results,_2014_(England_by_council_areas).svg
Meanwhile, as last week’s by-elections suggest, UKIP continue to have momentum on their side. In the ANP I found 29 per cent of voters saying they were “moving towards” the party, a higher share than for the Tories, Labour or the Lib Dems. This includes 23 per cent of Conservative voters, 12 per cent of Labour voters and 31 per cent of swing voters (those who either do not know how they will vote or say they may change their minds before election day).
Conservative voters were the least enthusiastic about their own party, with 59 per cent saying they were moving towards the Tories and 13 per cent away – a net score of 46 points. This compared to 63 points for Labour among Labour voters, 53 points for the Lib Dems among (the admittedly scarce) Lib Dem voters and 92 points for UKIP among UKIP voters
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/10/lord-ashcroft-labours-lead-grows-to-four-in-my-latest-national-poll.html.
Lab 34.1% (-1.5)
Con 31.5 (-1.1)
Normality appears to be a downward drift for the (former) big two.
You could read it either way I guess. The nightmare scenario for Dave's Tories is that they get less popular as elections approach.
For a start, the Gothic Claudius and Aurelian restored the empire (reclaiming the Palmyrene and Gallic territories for the 'real' empire). In addition, Diocletian only conducted the purges later in his reign (I'd need to check but I think things were relatively stable by that time) rather than as an immediate act to try and prevent the gods being angry at Christian worship (or neglect of themselves, if you prefer).
Perhaps that's an unfair criticism. It irks me when Aurelian is overlooked.
Ed is crap is PM