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So glad the Tories aren't peaking too soon

Not convinced by Conservatives being on 28.

Incidentally, my pre-race piece on Russia's race is here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/russia-pre-race.html

I must try and remember penalties better in the future.

Here's an astonishing fact bringing two maelstroms together.

@Pong's highlighted an article on the last thread, on the s***storm surrounding Alex Day - if you don't know who he is, and why he matters, it's worth having a readaround. The allegations that are flying around the current crop of young virtual "stars" are becoming a kind of Gen 2.0 counterpoint to the re-emergence of 70s scandals that the media are eating themselves with at the moment. There's some nuance in that - which Pong's article well reflects - but it's impossible to avoid the similarities.

Now if your stomach can take it, there is an excellent article archived by the Guardian from 2001, concerning the fall of Jonathan King. King clearly felt he'd fallen into a grey and nuanced area, with his systematic modes of entrapping his young fans during "market research". Of course the Law felt otherwise, that a line had been crossed, and King had to pay a high price for it. One reason I think Pong's article is of general interest, is that it highlights some aspects of teenage life that parents may find unsettling. The fact that today's virtual stars are more accessible - just the push of a button away - to their 15 and 16 year old fans, and more likely to interact, than King's generation were, ought to be of concern. But the routinised methodology, pretty much down to a typed script of "seduction", is uncannily reminiscent.

And then we come to 2011 and a shockingly unrepentant interview in the Indy. Less quease-inducing as the fine detail is skipped over, but an awareness of the background of the conviction makes King's self-justification even more troubling. He hits back at the terms of his punishment: being on the sex offenders register means he "cannot discover and nurture a new Peter Gabriel, or a Joni Mitchell, or a Prince, should they be under 18." And yet all is not lost. "Because I think I'm still quite good at spotting things. I have my protégé at the moment, Alex Day."

King was a mentor to Day, helped him make the transition from a purely "virtual" star, to one who reached out into the wider world - radio play, chart success.

The relationship between Alex Day and Jonathan King has been little-remarked, in fact I've seen no reference to it anywhere in press coverage of the Day controversy: I suspect simply because those aware of the existence of one, know little to nothing about the other. Two utterly different generations, and cultures, after all. But the way two of our current socio-cultural convulsings come so close together really made me sit up when I first realised it..

Pong said:

Pong said:

Interesting...

Ladbrokes halved UKIPs braintree odds at lunchtime.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/braintree/winning-party/bet-history/ukip/today

Labour might be worth a few quid at 33/1. Presumably they'll pick up a good chunk of the 2010 LD vote.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braintree_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Not a chance, they both polled less than 20% in 2010 and I've look at their candidate.
If HYUFD local description of Braintree is accurate, then it's just a typical Essex seat that UKIP does very good at.
I put the wining post there at 35%, which is doable for only the Tories and UKIP.

On these 2 polls Labour are on an average of 33% (32% in ICM, 34% in Omnium). The Tories are on an average of 28.5% (30% in ICM, 27% in Omnium). The LDs are on an average of 12% (15% in ICM, 9% in Omnium). That means Labour are doing worse than in 1992, the Tories worse than in 1997 and the LDs worse than 1979. They are terrible results for all the main parties, even if they mean Miliband scrapes home.

UKIP by contrast are on an average of 16% (15% in ICM, 17% in Omnium) ie the same total the LDs got in 1997 when they won more than 40 seats. The Greens are on 4% with Omnium, still 3% up on 2010

What other polls apart from ICM wisdom and Opinium are we expecting.?

RodCrosby said:

Wisdom Index Baxtered

Lab 327
Con 249
LD 45
UKIP 0

The most disproportional election in UK history, and probably the most disproportional in the "democratic" world....

The wisdom index isn't a poll and most of the public are behind the curve on politics.
For example no one who has followed the opinion polls and the results since 2010 thinks that the LD will retain almost all their seats next year.

The Opinium survey was from Tuesday till 9am on Friday so will indeed have been mainly pre-by-election - I know because I was in the sample and have just checked the invitation.

The Wisdom survey is of course methodological bollocks regardless of when it was taken.

NickPalmer said:

The Opinium survey was from Tuesday till 9am on Friday so will indeed have been mainly pre-by-election - I know because I was in the sample and have just checked the invitation.

The Wisdom survey is of course methodological bollocks regardless of when it was taken.

Don't worry there will probably be a MORI and a proper ICM poll next week.

manofkent2014 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

manofkent2014 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So glad the Tories aren't peaking too soon

Are you sure last week wasn't it?

Yeah, it was the inevitable Tory bounce because Dave was on the telly.

Dave's always on the Telly?

Not like this.

NickPalmer said:

The Opinium survey was from Tuesday till 9am on Friday so will indeed have been mainly pre-by-election - I know because I was in the sample and have just checked the invitation.

The Wisdom survey is of course methodological bollocks regardless of when it was taken.

I was in the sample as well.

Speedy said:

Pong said:

Pong said:

Interesting...

Ladbrokes halved UKIPs braintree odds at lunchtime.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/braintree/winning-party/bet-history/ukip/today

Labour might be worth a few quid at 33/1. Presumably they'll pick up a good chunk of the 2010 LD vote.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braintree_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Not a chance, they both polled less than 20% in 2010 and I've look at their candidate.
If HYUFD local description of Braintree is accurate, then it's just a typical Essex seat that UKIP does very good at.
I put the wining post there at 35%, which is doable for only the Tories and UKIP.

I agree and at the risk of being bullied into laying a 50/1shot, I think its a 50/1 shot

TSE Yet 8/15 of the seats polled showed Tory gains from LD

HYUFD said:

TSE Yet 8/15 of the seats polled showed Tory gains from LD

So they are on course to lose half their seats, which what the discussion is about.

"For example no one who has followed the opinion polls and the results since 2010 thinks that the LD will retain almost all their seats next year."

Morris_Dancer said:

King Cole, every candidate elected will have more votes than any rival candidate in that seat. It's perfectly fair.

PR is a recipe for compromise, weak government, permanent coalitions and general nonsense.

Mr Dancer, there are some things on which we agree. And some upon which we don't.

King Cole, I'd be disturbed if we agreed on everything. It's entirely possible for reasonable people to look at the same situation and reach radically different conclusions.

HYUFD said:

Ashcroft explains how he got Clacton right but Heywood less accurately
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/10/lord-ashcroft-the-by-election-that-shows-why-polls-are-not-predictions.html

Could there be a common problem with over estimating the size of the Labour support? Clacton was polled 16% for Labour and they actually got 11%, 5% points less.
Heywood's labour polling forecast a 19% lead with 47% and Labour actually got 41% of the vote on the day a drop of 6% on polling.

Applying a 4% to 6% polling error for Labour at the GE would of course be quite wrong .... but fun!

Do Labour have a problem with lying or lazy voters?

Morris_Dancer said:

King Cole, I'd be disturbed if we agreed on everything. It's entirely possible for reasonable people to look at the same situation and reach radically different conclusions.

You should both agree that a Directly Elected Dictator is the most equitable way to go.

Speedy Yes a big DK swing to UKIP

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, I see your Merkel Government and raise you Italian governance since WWII.

FPTP does not guarantee strong government but makes it far likelier than PR, which shifts government-forming power from the people to the political class.

The Irish Republic?

MikeSmithson said:

NickPalmer said:

The Opinium survey was from Tuesday till 9am on Friday so will indeed have been mainly pre-by-election - I know because I was in the sample and have just checked the invitation.

The Wisdom survey is of course methodological bollocks regardless of when it was taken.

I was in the sample as well.

OK, if one more PBer says they were polled we can safely call this a rogue. Anyone?

Incidentally, from the thread post:

"For ICM’s Wisdom Index those sampled are not not asked who they’d vote for but to give their predictions of party %ages, At GE10 it was said to have been more accurate than any other poll."

I've heard this claim often, does anyone know the original source? Presumably an ICM press release or something, but has anyone ever seen the tables or even headline VI from the 2010 Wisdom Index? Not that I think ICM would lie, but just for verification.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, I see your Merkel Government and raise you Italian governance since WWII.

FPTP does not guarantee strong government but makes it far likelier than PR, which shifts government-forming power from the people to the political class.

Coalition government is the huge problem with PR. No one knows what the hell they are voting for as our current overlords have shown

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, I see your Merkel Government and raise you Italian governance since WWII.

FPTP does not guarantee strong government but makes it far likelier than PR, which shifts government-forming power from the people to the political class.

Coalition governments are strong if there is no major ideological differences between the coalition parties.
The Tories and LD are mostly the same on policy now, so are Social Democrats with Christian Democrats. Almost all centre-left and centre right parties have no major policy differences.

The Independent says there is an invasion of alien Quagga Mussels-check date not 01/04-close to Heathrow.Beware the invasion of the Quagga Mussels.
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/quagga-mussels-most-dangerous-alien-species-found-in-reservoir-near-heathrow-airport-9789069.html

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Pete, isn't a quagga a creature akin to a cross between a horse and zebra?

Wikipedia confirms:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quagga

There are zebra mussels as well so perhaps if there is a horse mussel.....

Bloody Quagga Mussels coming over here,killing our fish.It was the Tories who let them in.They will soon start breeding too. And with our women mussels.Where's the Go Home vans when you need them and why has Farage has allowed these alien immigrants into an English UKIP area?

TCPB I think Labour may have a problem as Yes did with getting all its voters out

volcanopete said:

Bloody Quagga Mussels coming over here,killing our fish.It was the Tories who let them in.They will soon start breeding too. And with our women mussels.Where's the Go Home vans when you need them and why has Farage has allowed these alien immigrants into an English UKIP area?

You just keep on being a right on guardian reading multicultural wonk...people will vote for your party in droves

TheScreamingEagles said:

Quincel said:

MikeSmithson said:

NickPalmer said:

The Opinium survey was from Tuesday till 9am on Friday so will indeed have been mainly pre-by-election - I know because I was in the sample and have just checked the invitation.

The Wisdom survey is of course methodological bollocks regardless of when it was taken.

I was in the sample as well.

OK, if one more PBer says they were polled we can safely call this a rogue. Anyone?

Incidentally, from the thread post:

"For ICM’s Wisdom Index those sampled are not not asked who they’d vote for but to give their predictions of party %ages, At GE10 it was said to have been more accurate than any other poll."

I've heard this claim often, does anyone know the original source? Presumably an ICM press release or something, but has anyone ever seen the tables or even headline VI from the 2010 Wisdom Index? Not that I think ICM would lie, but just for verification.

Martin Boon said it back in 2012, and I'm certain the figures were provided in a journal a few weeks later, I'll try and dig it out.

I found the paper.
https://www.mrs.org.uk/pdf/IJMR_54_(4)_Boon.pdf

It was as accurate as ICM's normal poll in 2010 and followed the ICM normal poll closely until mid 2011, after that it diverged and there were concerns by Boon as to why starting from page 10, I highlight this:

"Prompting with the previous Liberal Democrat
election share has the effect of pushing up their Wisdom share of the
vote prediction in both the general election pre-test and post-election
tracker tests. There is little evidence to explain why this might be, but
we might speculate that there is a lower level of general understanding
about previous Liberal Democrat performance"

ZenPagan We got this Coalition under FPTP. Under Coalition you have to accept you will not get everything you way, but better than 50%+ of the electorate gets some say in the government, than 35% getting all the say

What are people' thoughts on over/under for SNP seats?

Kind of hinges on what's happening to the Lib Dem vote shirley?

HYUFD said:

MorrisDancer Berlusconi, Renzi, even Prodi all strong Italian PMs. FPTP entrenches the political class and gives us Blair and Miliband majority governments on barely more than a third of the votes, PR ensures UKIP and the Greens and LDs and Scottish Tories and Surrey Labour voters get fairly represented. No secret PR leads to higher turnouts than nations with FPTP on average at general elections

PR leads to parties being able to promise anything then ditch those promises as part of the coalition agreement and blame their partners for why they weren't upheld.

If you want to change the system go with the French one with two rounds of voting the second round being the top two in vote tallies

Speedy Which is why the likes of the Greens on the left and UKIP on the right have grown, PR ensures they are fairly represented

foxinsoxuk said:

OldKingCole said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Speedy, one might argue two parties with almost identical ideologies offer little difference to the electorate. Indeed, such limp-wristed consensus amongst the big three parties is why people outside the cosy consensus are so enthusiastic about UKIP.

Oh dear, Mr Dancer, we're agreeing again!

I can recall reading , years ago, a novel in which the chief character opined that people in England were either Roundhead or Cavalier, and that when the chips were down one knew, instinctively, on which side one was.

Me. I'm Roundhead. Or more probably Leveller!

Count me in as a Ranter!

Do you have "a general lack of moral values or restraint in worldly pleasures."

Sounds attractive, I must admit! Particularly the latter!

UKIP is the frankenstein's monster of the Tory press and it is hilarious watching the sheer unadulterated panic in these organs now their creation is out of their control!

O/T Could this work here?
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22429903.400-gamers-polled-on-xbox-can-predict-us-election-results.html#.VDl61_ldVMw

It seems as though the main appeal of Farage is that he's 'someone you could have a drink with in a pub'.

Or a Beer Hall, perhaps?

OldKingCole said:

foxinsoxuk said:

OldKingCole said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Speedy, one might argue two parties with almost identical ideologies offer little difference to the electorate. Indeed, such limp-wristed consensus amongst the big three parties is why people outside the cosy consensus are so enthusiastic about UKIP.

Oh dear, Mr Dancer, we're agreeing again!

I can recall reading , years ago, a novel in which the chief character opined that people in England were either Roundhead or Cavalier, and that when the chips were down one knew, instinctively, on which side one was.

Me. I'm Roundhead. Or more probably Leveller!

Count me in as a Ranter!

Do you have "a general lack of moral values or restraint in worldly pleasures."

Sounds attractive, I must admit! Particularly the latter!

It is quite liberating!

Ranters are like the Cathars; what is written was written by their enemies.

Ranters were a revolutionary NonConformist sect, who believed in the direct experience of God, and believed that Priests were deceivers.

It is all phrased in religious rather than political terms (as were a lot of 17th Century discussions) but in many ways a similar disillusion with the established order to todays political disenchantment..

Fenman said:

It seems as though the main appeal of Farage is that he's 'someone you could have a drink with in a pub'.

Or a Beer Hall, perhaps?

I think its more that he doesnt speak "political wonk" but talks like a real human being

Speedy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Quincel said:

MikeSmithson said:

NickPalmer said:

The Opinium survey was from Tuesday till 9am on Friday so will indeed have been mainly pre-by-election - I know because I was in the sample and have just checked the invitation.

The Wisdom survey is of course methodological bollocks regardless of when it was taken.

I was in the sample as well.

OK, if one more PBer says they were polled we can safely call this a rogue. Anyone?

Incidentally, from the thread post:

"For ICM’s Wisdom Index those sampled are not not asked who they’d vote for but to give their predictions of party %ages, At GE10 it was said to have been more accurate than any other poll."

I've heard this claim often, does anyone know the original source? Presumably an ICM press release or something, but has anyone ever seen the tables or even headline VI from the 2010 Wisdom Index? Not that I think ICM would lie, but just for verification.

Martin Boon said it back in 2012, and I'm certain the figures were provided in a journal a few weeks later, I'll try and dig it out.

I found the paper.
https://www.mrs.org.uk/pdf/IJMR_54_(4)_Boon.pdf

It was as accurate as ICM's normal poll in 2010 and followed the ICM normal poll closely until mid 2011, after that it diverged and there were concerns by Boon as to why starting from page 10, I highlight this:

"Prompting with the previous Liberal Democrat
election share has the effect of pushing up their Wisdom share of the
vote prediction in both the general election pre-test and post-election
tracker tests. There is little evidence to explain why this might be, but
we might speculate that there is a lower level of general understanding
about previous Liberal Democrat performance"

Many thanks Speedy, this is perfect Saturday night reading.