How does Sunak cope with both Truss and Johnson? – politicalbetting.com

A huge problem for Sunak as he contemplates the way forward is that the previous two Tory leaders are still very active in the party and want to have an impact on the future
Comments
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Agree it's a moment of risk, Mike, but would the Tories really oust a sitting Prime Minister for the third time in less than a year?
If Tory MPs are resigned to losing in 2024 it becomes an exercise in damage limitation so they've got a better chance in 2029. Reinstalling Boris will mean they may well have to fight 2029 with him as leader -- better to rebuild with a new face post-GE defeat, surely?1 -
The funny thing is that Truss and Boris are pulling in opposite directions. Crudely put, Liz Truss wants a smaller state and Boris wants more government investment. For that reason, I'd be wary of assuming that Sunak out means Johnson in.4
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Good morning all.
That's a truly terrible by-election result for the tories. Labour just got a higher share than in the 1997 landslide General Election. This defending their own safe seat in a by-election!
As Sky News put it:
"This result wasn't just bad for the Tories, it was terrible. While they won't admit it, they know it was
Labour commanded a bigger vote share in this constituency than in Tony Blair's landslide general election victory in 1997 - and a trouncing in May's local elections would send many Tory MPs into a blind panic."
https://news.sky.com/story/west-lancashire-by-election-labour-hold-onto-its-seat-12807130
https://news.sky.com/story/senior-tories-were-prepared-for-the-worst-at-the-by-election-and-they-werent-far-wrong-12807217
As I keep suggesting, an outright Labour majority is extremely likely. The Conservatives are going to get trounced.1 -
I think they know they will be out for at least 2 terms.FrequentLurker said:Agree it's a moment of risk, Mike, but would the Tories really oust a sitting Prime Minister for the third time in less than a year?
If Tory MPs are resigned to losing in 2024 it becomes an exercise in damage limitation so they've got a better chance in 2029. Reinstalling Boris will mean they may well have to fight 2029 with him as leader -- better to rebuild with a new face post-GE defeat, surely?1 -
Sunak will say: challenge me and I call a GE. Unanswerable.FrequentLurker said:Agree it's a moment of risk, Mike, but would the Tories really oust a sitting Prime Minister for the third time in less than a year?
If Tory MPs are resigned to losing in 2024 it becomes an exercise in damage limitation so they've got a better chance in 2029. Reinstalling Boris will mean they may well have to fight 2029 with him as leader -- better to rebuild with a new face post-GE defeat, surely?1 -
We had all of that idea with Liz Truss ... and she didn't. So I don't believe he would either.beinndearg said:
Sunak will say: challenge me and I call a GE. Unanswerable.FrequentLurker said:Agree it's a moment of risk, Mike, but would the Tories really oust a sitting Prime Minister for the third time in less than a year?
If Tory MPs are resigned to losing in 2024 it becomes an exercise in damage limitation so they've got a better chance in 2029. Reinstalling Boris will mean they may well have to fight 2029 with him as leader -- better to rebuild with a new face post-GE defeat, surely?1 -
Lancashire, election forecast:
Britain Elects forecast was quite accurate in Chester I recall. This is their prediction for tonight in West Lancs. Sounds about right to me.
LAB: 63% (+11)
CON: 26% (-10)
REF: 5% (+5)
GRN: 4% (+2)
LDEM: 3% (-2)
via Britain Predicts
sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/02/conser…
Turns out to have been a very accurate prediction:
Result
LAB: 62.3% (+10.2)
CON: 25.4% (-10.9)
REF: 4.4% (+0.1)
LDEM: 4.1% (-0.8)
GRN: 2.9% (+0.5)
MRLP: 0.9% (+0.9)
Labour HOLD.
This is based on the same MRP that has 138 Tory MPs after the next GE and 424 Labour.
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/11/britain-predicts-who-would-win-election-held-today
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Both Johnson and Truss have an eye to the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party that will surely follow an election loss.
Sunak is oddly disconnected from it in a way. He will trudge on to defeat with the only realistic strategy in the circumstances of "don't scare the horses" economic credibility to avoid making the situation worse, coupled with some tired old sh1te about small boats and Brexit dividends to shore up the core. But it is hard to believe that's a strategy for turning round the supertanker, just running it aground at slightly lower speed to limit the damage.
I think Johnson and Truss are aware of that and are happy enough for Sunak to take on what is a fool's errand. They may talk the talk, but I doubt they seriously believe the next election can be salvaged - a longer game is at play.0 -
Fairly sure that the next election is lost for the Conservatives. The only uncertainty is how quickly the disillusionment will come - a week or a month?😭🤣😂0
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Foxy said:
[...]
This is based on the same MRP that has 138 Tory MPs after the next GE and 424 Labour.
MRP is really good.
That tallies with my current forecast of tory seats in the 100-150 range.
I've never known such anger out there. They are in for an evisceration.0 -
Turns out to have been a very accurate prediction:Foxy said:Lancashire, election forecast:
Britain Elects forecast was quite accurate in Chester I recall. This is their prediction for tonight in West Lancs. Sounds about right to me.
LAB: 63% (+11)
CON: 26% (-10)
REF: 5% (+5)
GRN: 4% (+2)
LDEM: 3% (-2)
via Britain Predicts
sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/02/conser…
Result
LAB: 62.3% (+10.2)
CON: 25.4% (-10.9)
REF: 4.4% (+0.1)
LDEM: 4.1% (-0.8)
GRN: 2.9% (+0.5)
MRLP: 0.9% (+0.9)
Labour HOLD.
This is based on the same MRP that has 138 Tory MPs after the next GE and 424 Labour.
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/11/britain-predicts-who-would-win-election-held-today
You know, it really IS an appalling result for the tories. A rock solid safe Labour seat with a massive 'meh' factor and Labour still increased their share to higher than they got in the 1997 Tony Blair-inspired landslide.
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Johnson or Truss would think: Great, I get to be LotO even sooner.beinndearg said:
Sunak will say: challenge me and I call a GE. Unanswerable.FrequentLurker said:Agree it's a moment of risk, Mike, but would the Tories really oust a sitting Prime Minister for the third time in less than a year?
If Tory MPs are resigned to losing in 2024 it becomes an exercise in damage limitation so they've got a better chance in 2029. Reinstalling Boris will mean they may well have to fight 2029 with him as leader -- better to rebuild with a new face post-GE defeat, surely?0 -
Indeed - Tories do appear to have rather short memories!DecrepiterJohnL said:The funny thing is that Truss and Boris are pulling in opposite directions. Crudely put, Liz Truss wants a smaller state and Boris wants more government investment. For that reason, I'd be wary of assuming that Sunak out means Johnson in.
Leaving aside (the very significant issues of) Johnson's behaviour, honesty and morality, remember back then that the most common moan heard from Conservatives about Johnson concerned the big-spending, north-investing nature of his administration coupled with concerns about specifics like HS2 and Net zero. And, in many quarters, about his lazy, incompetent, capricious approach to leadership and delivery.
To go back to all that would be bizarre, whether or not it comes with another helping of scandal-ridden leadership.
Besides, the sight of Johnson simply says "Covid parties" to many voters, and most of us want to put all that behind us now.2 -
What is most absurd about the Conservative party is that Truss has standing in it at all. She is hated and ridiculed by voters. So why does she have this platform?SirNorfolkPassmore said:Both Johnson and Truss have an eye to the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party that will surely follow an election loss.
Sunak is oddly disconnected from it in a way. He will trudge on to defeat with the only realistic strategy in the circumstances of "don't scare the horses" economic credibility to avoid making the situation worse, coupled with some tired old sh1te about small boats and Brexit dividends to shore up the core. But it is hard to believe that's a strategy for turning round the supertanker, just running it aground at slightly lower speed to limit the damage.
I think Johnson and Truss are aware of that and are happy enough for Sunak to take on what is a fool's errand. They may talk the talk, but I doubt they seriously believe the next election can be salvaged - a longer game is at play.1 -
Turns out to have been a very accurate prediction:Foxy said:Lancashire, election forecast:
Britain Elects forecast was quite accurate in Chester I recall. This is their prediction for tonight in West Lancs. Sounds about right to me.
LAB: 63% (+11)
CON: 26% (-10)
REF: 5% (+5)
GRN: 4% (+2)
LDEM: 3% (-2)
via Britain Predicts
sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/02/conser…
Result
LAB: 62.3% (+10.2)
CON: 25.4% (-10.9)
REF: 4.4% (+0.1)
LDEM: 4.1% (-0.8)
GRN: 2.9% (+0.5)
MRLP: 0.9% (+0.9)
Labour HOLD.
This is based on the same MRP that has 138 Tory MPs after the next GE and 424 Labour.
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/11/britain-predicts-who-would-win-election-held-today
How can we take any forecast seriously that gets the libdem - green order wrong?0 -
Because not being hated or ridiculed has never been one of the criteria that Conservatives use to choose their leaders?darkage said:
What is most absurd about the Conservative party is that Truss has standing in it at all. She is hated and ridiculed by voters. So why does she have this platform?SirNorfolkPassmore said:Both Johnson and Truss have an eye to the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party that will surely follow an election loss.
Sunak is oddly disconnected from it in a way. He will trudge on to defeat with the only realistic strategy in the circumstances of "don't scare the horses" economic credibility to avoid making the situation worse, coupled with some tired old sh1te about small boats and Brexit dividends to shore up the core. But it is hard to believe that's a strategy for turning round the supertanker, just running it aground at slightly lower speed to limit the damage.
I think Johnson and Truss are aware of that and are happy enough for Sunak to take on what is a fool's errand. They may talk the talk, but I doubt they seriously believe the next election can be salvaged - a longer game is at play.1 -
rcs1000 said:
Turns out to have been a very accurate prediction:Foxy said:Lancashire, election forecast:
Britain Elects forecast was quite accurate in Chester I recall. This is their prediction for tonight in West Lancs. Sounds about right to me.
LAB: 63% (+11)
CON: 26% (-10)
REF: 5% (+5)
GRN: 4% (+2)
LDEM: 3% (-2)
via Britain Predicts
sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/02/conser…
Result
LAB: 62.3% (+10.2)
CON: 25.4% (-10.9)
REF: 4.4% (+0.1)
LDEM: 4.1% (-0.8)
GRN: 2.9% (+0.5)
MRLP: 0.9% (+0.9)
Labour HOLD.
This is based on the same MRP that has 138 Tory MPs after the next GE and 424 Labour.
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/11/britain-predicts-who-would-win-election-held-today
How can we take any forecast seriously that gets the libdem - green order wrong?
It’s an under the radar yellow surge.0 -
While the Tories do deserve a thrashing, I don't think such huge majorities make for good government. Too many bored and ambitious new government MPs, little chance of promotion and an ineffective rump opposition. That is before we get to the blank canvas of Starmerism too.6 -
Surely comparisons with 1997 are not valid. It’s a BE. A 10% swing, albeit in a safe Lab seat, is hardly earth-shattering.1
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Recession avoided.
No growth in final quarter.0 -
Does Truss have much standing outside her own imagination? The Telegraph printed her essay, but The Telegraph is pretty out there as well.darkage said:
What is most absurd about the Conservative party is that Truss has standing in it at all. She is hated and ridiculed by voters. So why does she have this platform?SirNorfolkPassmore said:Both Johnson and Truss have an eye to the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party that will surely follow an election loss.
Sunak is oddly disconnected from it in a way. He will trudge on to defeat with the only realistic strategy in the circumstances of "don't scare the horses" economic credibility to avoid making the situation worse, coupled with some tired old sh1te about small boats and Brexit dividends to shore up the core. But it is hard to believe that's a strategy for turning round the supertanker, just running it aground at slightly lower speed to limit the damage.
I think Johnson and Truss are aware of that and are happy enough for Sunak to take on what is a fool's errand. They may talk the talk, but I doubt they seriously believe the next election can be salvaged - a longer game is at play.
And Johnson ought to be pretty easy to neutralise by the Privileges Committee. Even if he does harbour dreams of hopping into Nadine's (Mid) Beds.
The noises won't help Rishi steer the ship, but neither of his undead predecessors can really take over.
Can they?3 -
Johnson would lose his seat.Dura_Ace said:
Johnson or Truss would think: Great, I get to be LotO even sooner.beinndearg said:
Sunak will say: challenge me and I call a GE. Unanswerable.FrequentLurker said:Agree it's a moment of risk, Mike, but would the Tories really oust a sitting Prime Minister for the third time in less than a year?
If Tory MPs are resigned to losing in 2024 it becomes an exercise in damage limitation so they've got a better chance in 2029. Reinstalling Boris will mean they may well have to fight 2029 with him as leader -- better to rebuild with a new face post-GE defeat, surely?
You think thatwill try Truss again? Really?0 -
I'm beginning to wonder if George Santos is actually a Democrat plant:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/09/santos-charged-theft-2017-dog-breeders-000820910 -
Completely in line with the polls and Britain Elects MRP. It does look valid to me.NeilVW said:Surely comparisons with 1997 are not valid. It’s a BE. A 10% swing, albeit in a safe Lab seat, is hardly earth-shattering.
Of course things can change with "events" but there is no guarantee that those "events" favour the government. It is very possible that they favour Starmer.
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MRP is really good.Heathener said:Foxy said:
[...]
This is based on the same MRP that has 138 Tory MPs after the next GE and 424 Labour.
That tallies with my current forecast of tory seats in the 100-150 range.
I've never known such anger out there. They are in for an evisceration.
That would be my prediction right now but the scary thing is that at these levels of support it wouldn't take much movement in the polls for it to change by a 100 seats. It could be in the right direction of course and they might make it 250 but equally it could go the other other way and they'd be close to zero.
FPTP puts them on a cliff edge. Move in the wrong direction and it's over.
PS Btw, I'd like to meet some of the 25% who voted Conservative. What on earth would motivate you to go the ballot box and support this lot? Is there a zombie cult faction in the area?2 -
Well they sure as hell didn’t do much research on him before the election.rcs1000 said:I'm beginning to wonder if George Santos is actually a Democrat plant:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/09/santos-charged-theft-2017-dog-breeders-000820910 -
She is hated and ridiculed by members.darkage said:
What is most absurd about the Conservative party is that Truss has standing in it at all. She is hated and ridiculed by voters. So why does she have this platform?SirNorfolkPassmore said:Both Johnson and Truss have an eye to the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party that will surely follow an election loss.
Sunak is oddly disconnected from it in a way. He will trudge on to defeat with the only realistic strategy in the circumstances of "don't scare the horses" economic credibility to avoid making the situation worse, coupled with some tired old sh1te about small boats and Brexit dividends to shore up the core. But it is hard to believe that's a strategy for turning round the supertanker, just running it aground at slightly lower speed to limit the damage.
I think Johnson and Truss are aware of that and are happy enough for Sunak to take on what is a fool's errand. They may talk the talk, but I doubt they seriously believe the next election can be salvaged - a longer game is at play.
She is also hated and ridiculed by MPs.
The only reason not to stand down at the next election is the brass neck that led her to think she would be a great Prime Minister first time around. She gets to perform that trick exactly once.
The reason Boris has not yet stood down is that as an MP he can better play the Ukraine card. Which he sees as a route to making squillions.
Sunak doesn't need to remotely worry about either of them.6 -
How can we take any forecast seriously that gets the libdem - green order wrong?ThomasNashe said:rcs1000 said:
Turns out to have been a very accurate prediction:Foxy said:Lancashire, election forecast:
Britain Elects forecast was quite accurate in Chester I recall. This is their prediction for tonight in West Lancs. Sounds about right to me.
LAB: 63% (+11)
CON: 26% (-10)
REF: 5% (+5)
GRN: 4% (+2)
LDEM: 3% (-2)
via Britain Predicts
sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/02/conser…
Result
LAB: 62.3% (+10.2)
CON: 25.4% (-10.9)
REF: 4.4% (+0.1)
LDEM: 4.1% (-0.8)
GRN: 2.9% (+0.5)
MRLP: 0.9% (+0.9)
Labour HOLD.
This is based on the same MRP that has 138 Tory MPs after the next GE and 424 Labour.
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/11/britain-predicts-who-would-win-election-held-today
It’s an under the radar yellow surge.
Refuk beating LibDems is worthy of note.0 -
Sadly, Mark, you are right. Why is there a part of me that wishes you were not?MarqueeMark said:
She is hated and ridiculed by members.darkage said:
What is most absurd about the Conservative party is that Truss has standing in it at all. She is hated and ridiculed by voters. So why does she have this platform?SirNorfolkPassmore said:Both Johnson and Truss have an eye to the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party that will surely follow an election loss.
Sunak is oddly disconnected from it in a way. He will trudge on to defeat with the only realistic strategy in the circumstances of "don't scare the horses" economic credibility to avoid making the situation worse, coupled with some tired old sh1te about small boats and Brexit dividends to shore up the core. But it is hard to believe that's a strategy for turning round the supertanker, just running it aground at slightly lower speed to limit the damage.
I think Johnson and Truss are aware of that and are happy enough for Sunak to take on what is a fool's errand. They may talk the talk, but I doubt they seriously believe the next election can be salvaged - a longer game is at play.
She is also hated and ridiculed by MPs.
The only reason not to stand down at the next election is the brass neck that led her to think she would be a great Prime Minister first time around. She gets to perform that trick exactly once.
The reason Boris has not yet stood down is that as an MP he can better play the Ukraine card. Which he sees as a route to making squillions.
Sunak doesn't need to remotely worry about either of them.0 -
Inflation falling only boosts spending power if people get real terms payrises. If not, then reduced Inflation just means they get poorer more slowly.DavidL said:
But no shrinkage either. As I said a week or so ago the long recession forecast was too pessimistic. We are going to be broadly flat with some small pick up at the end as inflation falls boost spending power again.dixiedean said:Recession avoided.
No growth in final quarter.1 -
Do you think he was nominated by the same guy who did Jared O'Mara?Sandpit said:
Well they sure as hell didn’t do much research on him before the election.rcs1000 said:I'm beginning to wonder if George Santos is actually a Democrat plant:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/09/santos-charged-theft-2017-dog-breeders-000820912 -
Trouble is that it's going to feel like a recession. Even now, tend growth is 1.5% or so (isn't it?), so the vibe is closer to "bad" rather than "normal", let alone "good".DavidL said:
But no shrinkage either. As I said a week or so ago the long recession forecast was too pessimistic. We are going to be broadly flat with some small pick up at the end as inflation falls boost spending power again.dixiedean said:Recession avoided.
No growth in final quarter.
As with Norma Lamont's Green Shoots, Conservatives saying "we're not actually in recession" may well just annoy the public even more.0 -
In the end the 'blank canvas' of Starmerism may well be why it isn't a rout, there isn't something positive to vote for in the way that there was with Blair. My sense is that ultimately Labour will win (either biggest party or a small majority) but not very convincingly.Foxy said:
While the Tories do deserve a thrashing, I don't think such huge majorities make for good government. Too many bored and ambitious new government MPs, little chance of promotion and an ineffective rump opposition. That is before we get to the blank canvas of Starmerism too.
It feels more like 1992 or 2010 than 1997.
At least with Sunak there is a sense of things calming down, a sort of 'incompetence as usual'.1 -
I hope you are right, the last thing we need is a comeback from either of them.MarqueeMark said:
She is hated and ridiculed by members.darkage said:
What is most absurd about the Conservative party is that Truss has standing in it at all. She is hated and ridiculed by voters. So why does she have this platform?SirNorfolkPassmore said:Both Johnson and Truss have an eye to the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party that will surely follow an election loss.
Sunak is oddly disconnected from it in a way. He will trudge on to defeat with the only realistic strategy in the circumstances of "don't scare the horses" economic credibility to avoid making the situation worse, coupled with some tired old sh1te about small boats and Brexit dividends to shore up the core. But it is hard to believe that's a strategy for turning round the supertanker, just running it aground at slightly lower speed to limit the damage.
I think Johnson and Truss are aware of that and are happy enough for Sunak to take on what is a fool's errand. They may talk the talk, but I doubt they seriously believe the next election can be salvaged - a longer game is at play.
She is also hated and ridiculed by MPs.
The only reason not to stand down at the next election is the brass neck that led her to think she would be a great Prime Minister first time around. She gets to perform that trick exactly once.
The reason Boris has not yet stood down is that as an MP he can better play the Ukraine card. Which he sees as a route to making squillions.
Sunak doesn't need to remotely worry about either of them.0 -
Interesting that the threader only mentions two former PMs. There is a third still around.2
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Particularly as we're still below pre-Covid GDP. Hard to make a big thing of arguing we're not in recession when we haven't recovered from the last one and the BoE is predicting we're about to enter another.Stuartinromford said:
Trouble is that it's going to feel like a recession. Even now, tend growth is 1.5% or so (isn't it?), so the vibe is closer to "bad" rather than "normal", let alone "good".DavidL said:
But no shrinkage either. As I said a week or so ago the long recession forecast was too pessimistic. We are going to be broadly flat with some small pick up at the end as inflation falls boost spending power again.dixiedean said:Recession avoided.
No growth in final quarter.
As with Norma Lamont's Green Shoots, Conservatives saying "we're not actually in recession" may well just annoy the public even more.
Close to zero GDP growth over 5 years' of this government won't exactly sound like a roaring success just because we are growing a bit in 2024 and inflation is back down.1 -
Turns out to have been a very accurate prediction:Foxy said:Lancashire, election forecast:
Britain Elects forecast was quite accurate in Chester I recall. This is their prediction for tonight in West Lancs. Sounds about right to me.
LAB: 63% (+11)
CON: 26% (-10)
REF: 5% (+5)
GRN: 4% (+2)
LDEM: 3% (-2)
via Britain Predicts
sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/02/conser…
Result
LAB: 62.3% (+10.2)
CON: 25.4% (-10.9)
REF: 4.4% (+0.1)
LDEM: 4.1% (-0.8)
GRN: 2.9% (+0.5)
MRLP: 0.9% (+0.9)
Labour HOLD.
This is based on the same MRP that has 138 Tory MPs after the next GE and 424 Labour.
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/11/britain-predicts-who-would-win-election-held-today
Notable overnight, again, was the Lib Dems outperforming the polls in all the by-elections they stood in. Couple of gains with huge swings in Cheltenham and Masham and Fountains, and the only party the Britain Predicts algorithm didn’t quite get right for West Lancs.
Encouraging for the May elections1 -
The Hemsworth by-election of February 1996 might be the closest comparison, though that was a somewhat safer Labour seat. Tory vote down by ~10pp in both cases. Turnout down heavily to only just over 20k votes in both cases. Labour vote up more strongly in West Lancs than in Hemsworth.NeilVW said:Surely comparisons with 1997 are not valid. It’s a BE. A 10% swing, albeit in a safe Lab seat, is hardly earth-shattering.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemsworth_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
The most negative interpretation I can put on it for Labour is that the result looks very similar to Hemsworth, so you can make a case for them achieving a 1997-style swing as a result at the next election, but they start so much further back than in 1997 that such a swing might only just be enough to take them to a wafer-thin majority, rather than to a huge landslide.
We could do with Matt Hancock receiving an offer he can't refuse out of politics and a by-election in West Suffolk. At the 1997 GE Labour were 1,867 votes behind. If they could win it at a by-election then a landslide looks on - particularly given the older demographic profile of the seat.1 -
When voting forecast models currently predicting an overall Labour majority of around 150 at the next general election consistently provide highly accurate predictions of by-election results, it’s time to start taking them very seriously.
I still struggle to see an actual general election result that gets Labour beyond a very narrow majority, and think Labour winning most seats is still the most likely outcome, but that is not where we are currently. So, the question is: how do the Tories start clawing it back and when will the process begin?1 -
Alas, I suspect you remain detached from a large part of your party. I remember how certain you were that Penny Mordaunt would be leader, right up until the point she was destroyed by her own side.MarqueeMark said:
She is hated and ridiculed by members.darkage said:
What is most absurd about the Conservative party is that Truss has standing in it at all. She is hated and ridiculed by voters. So why does she have this platform?SirNorfolkPassmore said:Both Johnson and Truss have an eye to the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party that will surely follow an election loss.
Sunak is oddly disconnected from it in a way. He will trudge on to defeat with the only realistic strategy in the circumstances of "don't scare the horses" economic credibility to avoid making the situation worse, coupled with some tired old sh1te about small boats and Brexit dividends to shore up the core. But it is hard to believe that's a strategy for turning round the supertanker, just running it aground at slightly lower speed to limit the damage.
I think Johnson and Truss are aware of that and are happy enough for Sunak to take on what is a fool's errand. They may talk the talk, but I doubt they seriously believe the next election can be salvaged - a longer game is at play.
She is also hated and ridiculed by MPs.
The only reason not to stand down at the next election is the brass neck that led her to think she would be a great Prime Minister first time around. She gets to perform that trick exactly once.
The reason Boris has not yet stood down is that as an MP he can better play the Ukraine card. Which he sees as a route to making squillions.
Sunak doesn't need to remotely worry about either of them.0 -
It should worry the Tories that they are still so far behind whilst the economy is doing better than expected. Very 1990s.SouthamObserver said:When voting forecast models currently predicting an overall Labour majority of around 150 at the next general election consistently provide highly accurate predictions of by-election results, it’s time to start taking them very seriously.
I still struggle to see an actual general election result that gets Labour beyond a very narrow majority, and think Labour winning most seats is still the most likely outcome, but that is not where we are currently. So, the question is: how do the Tories start clawing it back and when will the process begin?1 -
Major? No he's retired.ydoethur said:Interesting that the threader only mentions two former PMs. There is a third still around.
Thatcher? No, she's six feet under.
Oh, you're thinking of big necklace lady, aren't you? Whilst she is clearly the best of the bunch, chances of her coming back are approximately zero.
That would be to admit that the sugar frenzy of the last few years was a mistake, and the current Conservative generation can never do that.2 -
Also, if the economy is still growing (remember in real, inflation-adjusted, terms), people may also wonder why their pay is being cut relative to inflation. Where else is the money going?Stuartinromford said:
Trouble is that it's going to feel like a recession. Even now, tend growth is 1.5% or so (isn't it?), so the vibe is closer to "bad" rather than "normal", let alone "good".DavidL said:
But no shrinkage either. As I said a week or so ago the long recession forecast was too pessimistic. We are going to be broadly flat with some small pick up at the end as inflation falls boost spending power again.dixiedean said:Recession avoided.
No growth in final quarter.
As with Norma Lamont's Green Shoots, Conservatives saying "we're not actually in recession" may well just annoy the public even more.1 -
Yes but just as pay increases fail to keep up with inflation when it is rising quickly, as we have seen in the last 6 months, so pay increases tend to run ahead of inflation when it is falling swiftly and I think that we will see that in the second half of the year.Foxy said:
Inflation falling only boosts spending power if people get real terms payrises. If not, then reduced Inflation just means they get poorer more slowly.DavidL said:
But no shrinkage either. As I said a week or so ago the long recession forecast was too pessimistic. We are going to be broadly flat with some small pick up at the end as inflation falls boost spending power again.dixiedean said:Recession avoided.
No growth in final quarter.4 -
The trouble is, out of the three of them Mrs May is the one viewed by the public as a safe pair of hands. If she could return and remould the current party into the one nation feudal Tories that voters appreciate and would comfortably vote for, the next election is not lost.MarqueeMark said:
She is hated and ridiculed by members.darkage said:
What is most absurd about the Conservative party is that Truss has standing in it at all. She is hated and ridiculed by voters. So why does she have this platform?SirNorfolkPassmore said:Both Johnson and Truss have an eye to the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party that will surely follow an election loss.
Sunak is oddly disconnected from it in a way. He will trudge on to defeat with the only realistic strategy in the circumstances of "don't scare the horses" economic credibility to avoid making the situation worse, coupled with some tired old sh1te about small boats and Brexit dividends to shore up the core. But it is hard to believe that's a strategy for turning round the supertanker, just running it aground at slightly lower speed to limit the damage.
I think Johnson and Truss are aware of that and are happy enough for Sunak to take on what is a fool's errand. They may talk the talk, but I doubt they seriously believe the next election can be salvaged - a longer game is at play.
She is also hated and ridiculed by MPs.
The only reason not to stand down at the next election is the brass neck that led her to think she would be a great Prime Minister first time around. She gets to perform that trick exactly once.
The reason Boris has not yet stood down is that as an MP he can better play the Ukraine card. Which he sees as a route to making squillions.
Sunak doesn't need to remotely worry about either of them.
In order to win the next GE with Truss or Johnson the Conservatives need to dig deep to find the vein of 40% populism. Perhaps Lee Anderson has some ideas.1 -
That would be my prediction right now but the scary thing is that at these levels of support it wouldn't take much movement in the polls for it to change by a 100 seats. It could be in the right direction of course and they might make it 250 but equally it could go the other other way and they'd be close to zero.Peter_the_Punter said:
FPTP puts them on a cliff edge. Move in the wrong direction and it's over.
PS Btw, I'd like to meet some of the 25% who voted Conservative. What on earth would motivate you to go the ballot box and support this lot? Is there a zombie cult faction in the area?
MRP is good - better than a randomly sampled national poll - but it still reflects opinion now, not how people will feel when the GE arrives.1 -
In Hemsworth, the Tory share of the vote fell by 53%. In West Lancashire, it fell by 30%. That the Labour vote didn’t go up in Hemsworth is perhaps not surprising as they did well in 1992. On the other hand, Labour had a terrible 2019, so it would be disappointing for Labour if they weren’t showing signs of recovery.LostPassword said:
The Hemsworth by-election of February 1996 might be the closest comparison, though that was a somewhat safer Labour seat. Tory vote down by ~10pp in both cases. Turnout down heavily to only just over 20k votes in both cases. Labour vote up more strongly in West Lancs than in Hemsworth.NeilVW said:Surely comparisons with 1997 are not valid. It’s a BE. A 10% swing, albeit in a safe Lab seat, is hardly earth-shattering.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemsworth_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
The most negative interpretation I can put on it for Labour is that the result looks very similar to Hemsworth, so you can make a case for them achieving a 1997-style swing as a result at the next election, but they start so much further back than in 1997 that such a swing might only just be enough to take them to a wafer-thin majority, rather than to a huge landslide.
We could do with Matt Hancock receiving an offer he can't refuse out of politics and a by-election in West Suffolk. At the 1997 GE Labour were 1,867 votes behind. If they could win it at a by-election then a landslide looks on - particularly given the older demographic profile of the seat.
Now, that’s not to say Labour aren’t on course to form the next government, but I don’t think the by election results are nearly as good as what Blair was achieving in opposition.2 -
Thatcher six feet under would still be a better PM than Truss.Stuartinromford said:
Major? No he's retired.ydoethur said:Interesting that the threader only mentions two former PMs. There is a third still around.
Thatcher? No, she's six feet under.
Oh, you're thinking of big necklace lady, aren't you? Whilst she is clearly the best of the bunch, chances of her coming back are approximately zero.
That would be to admit that the sugar frenzy of the last few years was a mistake, and the current Conservative generation can never do that.
I wonder though if May might return to the cabinet at some point. She's a senior figure and unquestionably able. There might be an opening as say, leader of the House if Wallace moves on and Mordaunt returned to Defence.
Equally, she may not want to. She's on a nice earner outside Parliament making speeches, and that would have to go if she became a Minister again. And unlike Johnson she surely knows she has no chance of the leadership again unless she is a Grimond in a real, real crisis.1 -
I think we can safely say she's not a Grimond!ydoethur said:
Thatcher six feet under would still be a better PM than Truss.Stuartinromford said:
Major? No he's retired.ydoethur said:Interesting that the threader only mentions two former PMs. There is a third still around.
Thatcher? No, she's six feet under.
Oh, you're thinking of big necklace lady, aren't you? Whilst she is clearly the best of the bunch, chances of her coming back are approximately zero.
That would be to admit that the sugar frenzy of the last few years was a mistake, and the current Conservative generation can never do that.
I wonder though if May might return to the cabinet at some point. She's a senior figure and unquestionably able. There might be an opening as say, leader of the House if Wallace moves on and Mordaunt returned to Defence.
Equally, she may not want to. She's on a nice earner outside Parliament making speeches, and that would have to go if she became a Minister again. And unlike Johnson she surely knows she has no chance of the leadership again unless she is a Grimond in a real, real crisis.
But she would probably be willing to serve responsibly under someone else and isn't, as you say, after the top job, her leadership skills having been already found rather wanting.
Even though she would undoubtedly have been better than Johnson during the pandemic - she has a sense of duty so would have observed her own rules, would have been all over the detail and been better at those press conferences with the scientists, and wouldn't have had Johnson's reluctance to go down the route of restrictions that proved so fatal - literally - to many people back at the beginning of the crisis. And the vans driving around all over the country with posters telling us to stay indoors would have given us something to look at during the lockdown!0 -
I meant, Jo Grimond who returned as acting leader of the Liberals during the Thorpe affair.IanB2 said:
I think we can safely say she's not a Grimond!ydoethur said:
Thatcher six feet under would still be a better PM than Truss.Stuartinromford said:
Major? No he's retired.ydoethur said:Interesting that the threader only mentions two former PMs. There is a third still around.
Thatcher? No, she's six feet under.
Oh, you're thinking of big necklace lady, aren't you? Whilst she is clearly the best of the bunch, chances of her coming back are approximately zero.
That would be to admit that the sugar frenzy of the last few years was a mistake, and the current Conservative generation can never do that.
I wonder though if May might return to the cabinet at some point. She's a senior figure and unquestionably able. There might be an opening as say, leader of the House if Wallace moves on and Mordaunt returned to Defence.
Equally, she may not want to. She's on a nice earner outside Parliament making speeches, and that would have to go if she became a Minister again. And unlike Johnson she surely knows she has no chance of the leadership again unless she is a Grimond in a real, real crisis.
But she would probably be willing to serve responsibly under someone else and isn't, as you say, after the top job, her leadership skills having been already found rather wanting.0 -
Oh I agree. I don’t think that the over performance will be on a sufficient scale to do the government any favours. People will still feel (and will actually be) worse off.Stuartinromford said:
Trouble is that it's going to feel like a recession. Even now, tend growth is 1.5% or so (isn't it?), so the vibe is closer to "bad" rather than "normal", let alone "good".DavidL said:
But no shrinkage either. As I said a week or so ago the long recession forecast was too pessimistic. We are going to be broadly flat with some small pick up at the end as inflation falls boost spending power again.dixiedean said:Recession avoided.
No growth in final quarter.
As with Norma Lamont's Green Shoots, Conservatives saying "we're not actually in recession" may well just annoy the public even more.0 -
As the years go by and we get one failed premiership after another it makes Mrs Thatcher's achievements seem more and more impressive.ydoethur said:
Thatcher six feet under would still be a better PM than Truss.Stuartinromford said:
Major? No he's retired.ydoethur said:Interesting that the threader only mentions two former PMs. There is a third still around.
Thatcher? No, she's six feet under.
Oh, you're thinking of big necklace lady, aren't you? Whilst she is clearly the best of the bunch, chances of her coming back are approximately zero.
That would be to admit that the sugar frenzy of the last few years was a mistake, and the current Conservative generation can never do that.
She was undoubtedly one of the greatest figures the democratic world has ever produced.1 -
Just for you.Fishing said:
As the years go by and we get one failed premiership after another it makes Mrs Thatcher's achievements seem more and more impressive.ydoethur said:
Thatcher six feet under would still be a better PM than Truss.Stuartinromford said:
Major? No he's retired.ydoethur said:Interesting that the threader only mentions two former PMs. There is a third still around.
Thatcher? No, she's six feet under.
Oh, you're thinking of big necklace lady, aren't you? Whilst she is clearly the best of the bunch, chances of her coming back are approximately zero.
That would be to admit that the sugar frenzy of the last few years was a mistake, and the current Conservative generation can never do that.
She was undoubtedly one of the greatest figures the democratic world has ever produced.
2 -
Grimond was an inspirational figure who set the Liberals on the long path to recovery, and is still revered among many older members. His leadership was before my time - believe it or not, I was inspired to join by Thorpe - but I met many people during my time in the party who had joined because of Grimond, and later gone on to become leading councillors or MPs. Without someone like Grimond it's quite possible the party would still be stuck on 5% (and, yes, I anticipate that is setting you up for a witty reply).ydoethur said:
I meant, Jo Grimond who returned as acting leader of the Liberals during the Thorpe affair.IanB2 said:
I think we can safely say she's not a Grimond!ydoethur said:
Thatcher six feet under would still be a better PM than Truss.Stuartinromford said:
Major? No he's retired.ydoethur said:Interesting that the threader only mentions two former PMs. There is a third still around.
Thatcher? No, she's six feet under.
Oh, you're thinking of big necklace lady, aren't you? Whilst she is clearly the best of the bunch, chances of her coming back are approximately zero.
That would be to admit that the sugar frenzy of the last few years was a mistake, and the current Conservative generation can never do that.
I wonder though if May might return to the cabinet at some point. She's a senior figure and unquestionably able. There might be an opening as say, leader of the House if Wallace moves on and Mordaunt returned to Defence.
Equally, she may not want to. She's on a nice earner outside Parliament making speeches, and that would have to go if she became a Minister again. And unlike Johnson she surely knows she has no chance of the leadership again unless she is a Grimond in a real, real crisis.
But she would probably be willing to serve responsibly under someone else and isn't, as you say, after the top job, her leadership skills having been already found rather wanting.1 -
Heathener said:
Turns out to have been a very accurate prediction:Foxy said:Lancashire, election forecast:
Britain Elects forecast was quite accurate in Chester I recall. This is their prediction for tonight in West Lancs. Sounds about right to me.
LAB: 63% (+11)
CON: 26% (-10)
REF: 5% (+5)
GRN: 4% (+2)
LDEM: 3% (-2)
via Britain Predicts
sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/02/conser…
Result
LAB: 62.3% (+10.2)
CON: 25.4% (-10.9)
REF: 4.4% (+0.1)
LDEM: 4.1% (-0.8)
GRN: 2.9% (+0.5)
MRLP: 0.9% (+0.9)
Labour HOLD.
This is based on the same MRP that has 138 Tory MPs after the next GE and 424 Labour.
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/11/britain-predicts-who-would-win-election-held-today
"You know, it really IS an appalling result for the tories. A rock solid safe Labour seat with a massive 'meh' factor and Labour still increased their share to higher than they got in the 1997 Tony Blair-inspired landslide."
Calm down, you sound like the 1992 Sheffield Rally. Caution should be applied.1 -
The Lancashire result is appalling for the Tory leadership.
Hunt and Sunak to go after May looking increasingly likely to me. I suspect Johnson will be back.1 -
I wouldn't lower myself to a 5% gag!IanB2 said:
Grimond was an inspirational figure who set the Liberals on the long path to recovery, and is still revered among many older members. His leadership was before my time - believe it or not, I was inspired to join by Thorpe - but I met many people during my time in the party who had joined because of Grimond, and later gone on to become leading councillors or MPs. Without someone like Grimond it's quite possible the party would still be stuck on 5% (and, yes, I anticipate that is setting you up for a witty reply).ydoethur said:
I meant, Jo Grimond who returned as acting leader of the Liberals during the Thorpe affair.IanB2 said:
I think we can safely say she's not a Grimond!ydoethur said:
Thatcher six feet under would still be a better PM than Truss.Stuartinromford said:
Major? No he's retired.ydoethur said:Interesting that the threader only mentions two former PMs. There is a third still around.
Thatcher? No, she's six feet under.
Oh, you're thinking of big necklace lady, aren't you? Whilst she is clearly the best of the bunch, chances of her coming back are approximately zero.
That would be to admit that the sugar frenzy of the last few years was a mistake, and the current Conservative generation can never do that.
I wonder though if May might return to the cabinet at some point. She's a senior figure and unquestionably able. There might be an opening as say, leader of the House if Wallace moves on and Mordaunt returned to Defence.
Equally, she may not want to. She's on a nice earner outside Parliament making speeches, and that would have to go if she became a Minister again. And unlike Johnson she surely knows she has no chance of the leadership again unless she is a Grimond in a real, real crisis.
But she would probably be willing to serve responsibly under someone else and isn't, as you say, after the top job, her leadership skills having been already found rather wanting.
Again, I wasn't comparing her leadership, which clearly was not in the class of Grimond's(!) but possible circumstances where she might become PM again. There are not many, but Rishi Sunak having a dog shot might cover it...1 -
West Lancashire Highest ever percentage for Labour
"Best result ever" say SKS fans.
At the same time Labour received the f"ewest votes ever" in the Comstituency.
Of course mostly down to the lowest turnout ever as often happens in a by election.
My view is those who are shouting BEST EVER like my own MP are still missing the lack of enthusiasm for SKS but undoubted visceral hatred of the Tories may outweigh that.
GE 2024 lowest ever turnout??0 -
Has anyone ever considered trying to tap the burning and increasingly irrational hatred of Corbynistas for SKS as a renewable heat source?bigjohnowls said:West Lancashire Highest ever percentage for Labour
"Best result ever" say SKS fans.
At the same time Labour received the f"ewest votes ever" in the Comstituency.
Of course mostly down to the lowest turnout ever as often happens in a by election.
My view is those who are shouting BEST EVER like my own MP are still missing the lack of enthusiasm for SKS but undoubted visceral hatred of the Tories may outweigh that.
GE 2024 lowest ever turnout??6 -
Nah, that result isn’t terrible. Probably going to lose the next election, but that result is no worse than what Boris was achieving.Mortimer said:The Lancashire result is appalling for the Tory leadership.
Hunt and Sunak to go after May looking increasingly likely to me. I suspect Johnson will be back.0 -
I guess the really big unknown is how successful the government’s voter suppression measures will be. If the Tories have got it right it could save them a lot of seats.0
-
Just for you allJonathan said:
Just for you.Fishing said:
As the years go by and we get one failed premiership after another it makes Mrs Thatcher's achievements seem more and more impressive.ydoethur said:
Thatcher six feet under would still be a better PM than Truss.Stuartinromford said:
Major? No he's retired.ydoethur said:Interesting that the threader only mentions two former PMs. There is a third still around.
Thatcher? No, she's six feet under.
Oh, you're thinking of big necklace lady, aren't you? Whilst she is clearly the best of the bunch, chances of her coming back are approximately zero.
That would be to admit that the sugar frenzy of the last few years was a mistake, and the current Conservative generation can never do that.
She was undoubtedly one of the greatest figures the democratic world has ever produced.
https://vimeo.com/6423118041 -
Why not burn the 32k labour voters of West Lancashire in 2017 but not the 14k Tories who voted for SKSydoethur said:
Has anyone ever considered trying to tap the burning and increasingly irrational hatred of Corbynistas for SKS as a renewable heat source?bigjohnowls said:West Lancashire Highest ever percentage for Labour
"Best result ever" say SKS fans.
At the same time Labour received the f"ewest votes ever" in the Comstituency.
Of course mostly down to the lowest turnout ever as often happens in a by election.
My view is those who are shouting BEST EVER like my own MP are still missing the lack of enthusiasm for SKS but undoubted visceral hatred of the Tories may outweigh that.
GE 2024 lowest ever turnout??0 -
I always try and avoid the more hyperbolic descriptions given to politicians - although I did have quite a bit to say about Corbyn being the leader of the Labour Party - I genuinely think that most of them have good, if misplaced, intentions, and like the concept of Parliamentary language that refers to elected Members as honourable people.Peter_the_Punter said:
Do you think he was nominated by the same guy who did Jared O'Mara?Sandpit said:
Well they sure as hell didn’t do much research on him before the election.rcs1000 said:I'm beginning to wonder if George Santos is actually a Democrat plant:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/09/santos-charged-theft-2017-dog-breeders-00082091
But then occasionally, someone like Santos or O’Mara makes it through, and I have to reconsider…0 -
Okaaaaay...that's actually slightly beyond irrational.bigjohnowls said:
Why not burn the 32k labour voters of West Lancashire in 2017 but not the 14k Tories who voted for SKSydoethur said:
Has anyone ever considered trying to tap the burning and increasingly irrational hatred of Corbynistas for SKS as a renewable heat source?bigjohnowls said:West Lancashire Highest ever percentage for Labour
"Best result ever" say SKS fans.
At the same time Labour received the f"ewest votes ever" in the Comstituency.
Of course mostly down to the lowest turnout ever as often happens in a by election.
My view is those who are shouting BEST EVER like my own MP are still missing the lack of enthusiasm for SKS but undoubted visceral hatred of the Tories may outweigh that.
GE 2024 lowest ever turnout??1 -
"You know, it really IS an appalling result for the tories. A rock solid safe Labour seat with a massive 'meh' factor and Labour still increased their share to higher than they got in the 1997 Tony Blair-inspired landslide."Mexicanpete said:Heathener said:
Turns out to have been a very accurate prediction:Foxy said:Lancashire, election forecast:
Britain Elects forecast was quite accurate in Chester I recall. This is their prediction for tonight in West Lancs. Sounds about right to me.
LAB: 63% (+11)
CON: 26% (-10)
REF: 5% (+5)
GRN: 4% (+2)
LDEM: 3% (-2)
via Britain Predicts
sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/02/conser…
Result
LAB: 62.3% (+10.2)
CON: 25.4% (-10.9)
REF: 4.4% (+0.1)
LDEM: 4.1% (-0.8)
GRN: 2.9% (+0.5)
MRLP: 0.9% (+0.9)
Labour HOLD.
This is based on the same MRP that has 138 Tory MPs after the next GE and 424 Labour.
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/11/britain-predicts-who-would-win-election-held-today
Calm down, you sound like the 1992 Sheffield Rally. Caution should be applied.
Labour vote up from 59% in 2017 to 62% last night.0 -
Good morning all!
Johnson has still to get past the committee of privileges. I suspect that will be the end of his political career.0 -
I was - and remain of the view - that Penny Mordaunt was the best Conservative leader to have fought the next election.Jonathan said:
Alas, I suspect you remain detached from a large part of your party. I remember how certain you were that Penny Mordaunt would be leader, right up until the point she was destroyed by her own side.MarqueeMark said:
She is hated and ridiculed by members.darkage said:
What is most absurd about the Conservative party is that Truss has standing in it at all. She is hated and ridiculed by voters. So why does she have this platform?SirNorfolkPassmore said:Both Johnson and Truss have an eye to the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party that will surely follow an election loss.
Sunak is oddly disconnected from it in a way. He will trudge on to defeat with the only realistic strategy in the circumstances of "don't scare the horses" economic credibility to avoid making the situation worse, coupled with some tired old sh1te about small boats and Brexit dividends to shore up the core. But it is hard to believe that's a strategy for turning round the supertanker, just running it aground at slightly lower speed to limit the damage.
I think Johnson and Truss are aware of that and are happy enough for Sunak to take on what is a fool's errand. They may talk the talk, but I doubt they seriously believe the next election can be salvaged - a longer game is at play.
She is also hated and ridiculed by MPs.
The only reason not to stand down at the next election is the brass neck that led her to think she would be a great Prime Minister first time around. She gets to perform that trick exactly once.
The reason Boris has not yet stood down is that as an MP he can better play the Ukraine card. Which he sees as a route to making squillions.
Sunak doesn't need to remotely worry about either of them.
That the Daily Mail went in with both feet - presumably because of some bat-shit notion that Boris could yet come back as leader - has much to answer for.
1 -
Johnsonian Corbynistas please.ydoethur said:
Has anyone ever considered trying to tap the burning and increasingly irrational hatred of Corbynistas for SKS as a renewable heat source?bigjohnowls said:West Lancashire Highest ever percentage for Labour
"Best result ever" say SKS fans.
At the same time Labour received the f"ewest votes ever" in the Comstituency.
Of course mostly down to the lowest turnout ever as often happens in a by election.
My view is those who are shouting BEST EVER like my own MP are still missing the lack of enthusiasm for SKS but undoubted visceral hatred of the Tories may outweigh that.
GE 2024 lowest ever turnout??0 -
There’s a good chance of inflation actually going negative later in the year, as last year’s price rises work their way out of the numbers. Energy bills in particular might fall substantially for many people, which will feel like a pay rise after a difficult winter.Stuartinromford said:
Trouble is that it's going to feel like a recession. Even now, tend growth is 1.5% or so (isn't it?), so the vibe is closer to "bad" rather than "normal", let alone "good".DavidL said:
But no shrinkage either. As I said a week or so ago the long recession forecast was too pessimistic. We are going to be broadly flat with some small pick up at the end as inflation falls boost spending power again.dixiedean said:Recession avoided.
No growth in final quarter.
As with Norma Lamont's Green Shoots, Conservatives saying "we're not actually in recession" may well just annoy the public even more.0 -
I'd like to meet the guy who put O'Mara's name forward and hear what he has to say for himself. In my book, he's more culpable than O'Mara himself who is plainly a deeply troubled individual.Sandpit said:
I always try and avoid the more hyperbolic descriptions given to politicians - although I did have quite a bit to say about Corbyn being the leader of the Labour Party - I genuinely think that most of them have good, if misplaced, intentions, and like the concept of Parliamentary language that refers to elected Members as honourable people.Peter_the_Punter said:
Do you think he was nominated by the same guy who did Jared O'Mara?Sandpit said:
Well they sure as hell didn’t do much research on him before the election.rcs1000 said:I'm beginning to wonder if George Santos is actually a Democrat plant:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/09/santos-charged-theft-2017-dog-breeders-00082091
But then occasionally, someone like Santos or O’Mara makes it through, and I have to reconsider…1 -
Any thoughts on why the UK and Russia are doing so badly?
UK and Russia are currently the only two G20 economies below their pre-pandemic output level.
https://twitter.com/shjfrench/status/1623949191759233028/photo/10 -
Brilliant irony there, Fishing. Made me chortle ;-)Fishing said:
As the years go by and we get one failed premiership after another it makes Mrs Thatcher's achievements seem more and more impressive.ydoethur said:
Thatcher six feet under would still be a better PM than Truss.Stuartinromford said:
Major? No he's retired.ydoethur said:Interesting that the threader only mentions two former PMs. There is a third still around.
Thatcher? No, she's six feet under.
Oh, you're thinking of big necklace lady, aren't you? Whilst she is clearly the best of the bunch, chances of her coming back are approximately zero.
That would be to admit that the sugar frenzy of the last few years was a mistake, and the current Conservative generation can never do that.
She was undoubtedly one of the greatest figures the democratic world has ever produced.1 -
I see Suella Braverman has been captured by liberalist civil servants at the Home Office.
Suella Braverman has watered down Rishi Sunak’s pledge to “stop the boats” after committing only to a “dramatic reduction” in the number of migrants crossing the Channel.
The home secretary refused to give a timeframe for achieving the target, one of the government’s five priorities.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/suella-braverman-rows-back-on-boat-pledge-zjmgs9fk70 -
Why did 18k Labour voters who turned out for the "worst ever" leader stay at home?ydoethur said:
Okaaaaay...that's actually slightly beyond irrational.bigjohnowls said:
Why not burn the 32k labour voters of West Lancashire in 2017 but not the 14k Tories who voted for SKSydoethur said:
Has anyone ever considered trying to tap the burning and increasingly irrational hatred of Corbynistas for SKS as a renewable heat source?bigjohnowls said:West Lancashire Highest ever percentage for Labour
"Best result ever" say SKS fans.
At the same time Labour received the f"ewest votes ever" in the Comstituency.
Of course mostly down to the lowest turnout ever as often happens in a by election.
My view is those who are shouting BEST EVER like my own MP are still missing the lack of enthusiasm for SKS but undoubted visceral hatred of the Tories may outweigh that.
GE 2024 lowest ever turnout??
It was a by election and people can't be arsed I presume.0 -
A nice headline for Liz Truss and her supporters.
Liz Truss budget blamed as repossessions double
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-truss-budget-blamed-as-repossessions-double-zjnmqr0jn1 -
When is it?OldKingCole said:Good morning all!
Johnson has still to get past the committee of privileges. I suspect that will be the end of his political career.0 -
It is a myth to say the Tories were doing much better before the May 2019 local elections than now. Indeed the final Yougov before the May 2019 local elections had the Tories on just 29% and the Tories got just 28%.
Given the latest Yougov puts the Tories on 24%, although the Tories may see losses, especially to Labour, the swing and number of seats and councils lost is likely to be much lower than in 2019 when the Tories lost 7% voteshare compared to the local elections in 2015 where they got 35%, over 1000 councillors and 44 councils
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
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Good question; why is it being delayed?bigjohnowls said:
When is it?OldKingCole said:Good morning all!
Johnson has still to get past the committee of privileges. I suspect that will be the end of his political career.0 -
BecauseOldKingCole said:
Good question; why is it being delayed?bigjohnowls said:
When is it?OldKingCole said:Good morning all!
Johnson has still to get past the committee of privileges. I suspect that will be the end of his political career.
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I rather liked Penny, but she was dreadful in the contest.MarqueeMark said:
I was - and remain of the view - that Penny Mordaunt was the best Conservative leader to have fought the next election.Jonathan said:
Alas, I suspect you remain detached from a large part of your party. I remember how certain you were that Penny Mordaunt would be leader, right up until the point she was destroyed by her own side.MarqueeMark said:
She is hated and ridiculed by members.darkage said:
What is most absurd about the Conservative party is that Truss has standing in it at all. She is hated and ridiculed by voters. So why does she have this platform?SirNorfolkPassmore said:Both Johnson and Truss have an eye to the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party that will surely follow an election loss.
Sunak is oddly disconnected from it in a way. He will trudge on to defeat with the only realistic strategy in the circumstances of "don't scare the horses" economic credibility to avoid making the situation worse, coupled with some tired old sh1te about small boats and Brexit dividends to shore up the core. But it is hard to believe that's a strategy for turning round the supertanker, just running it aground at slightly lower speed to limit the damage.
I think Johnson and Truss are aware of that and are happy enough for Sunak to take on what is a fool's errand. They may talk the talk, but I doubt they seriously believe the next election can be salvaged - a longer game is at play.
She is also hated and ridiculed by MPs.
The only reason not to stand down at the next election is the brass neck that led her to think she would be a great Prime Minister first time around. She gets to perform that trick exactly once.
The reason Boris has not yet stood down is that as an MP he can better play the Ukraine card. Which he sees as a route to making squillions.
Sunak doesn't need to remotely worry about either of them.
That the Daily Mail went in with both feet - presumably because of some bat-shit notion that Boris could yet come back as leader - has much to answer for.
Useless as he is, Sunak was actually the best of a very poor field in last summers contest. One reason that the nation is such a mess is that Brexit has hollowed out what little talent there was in the party.2 -
You are being more than disingenuous to the hapless Starmer. You keep quoting peak Corbyn by ignoring 2019, and by your own admission, last night the hopeless Starmer was 3% ahead of 2017 Corbyn, which bearing in mind Starmer's abject uselessness must suggest Corbyn is even more abjectly useless.bigjohnowls said:
Why did 18k Labour voters who turned out for the "worst ever" leader stay at home?ydoethur said:
Okaaaaay...that's actually slightly beyond irrational.bigjohnowls said:
Why not burn the 32k labour voters of West Lancashire in 2017 but not the 14k Tories who voted for SKSydoethur said:
Has anyone ever considered trying to tap the burning and increasingly irrational hatred of Corbynistas for SKS as a renewable heat source?bigjohnowls said:West Lancashire Highest ever percentage for Labour
"Best result ever" say SKS fans.
At the same time Labour received the f"ewest votes ever" in the Comstituency.
Of course mostly down to the lowest turnout ever as often happens in a by election.
My view is those who are shouting BEST EVER like my own MP are still missing the lack of enthusiasm for SKS but undoubted visceral hatred of the Tories may outweigh that.
GE 2024 lowest ever turnout??
It was a by election and people can't be arsed I presume.
On a positive note, the economy is not in recession. Yay!0 -
It's what's currently keeping the Tory vote share up.Mexicanpete said:
You are being more than disingenuous to the hapless Starmer. You keep quoting peak Corbyn by ignoring 2019, and by your own admission, last night the hopeless Starmer was 3% ahead of 2017 Corbyn, which bearing in mind Starmer's abject uselessness must suggest Corbyn is even more abjectly useless.bigjohnowls said:
Why did 18k Labour voters who turned out for the "worst ever" leader stay at home?ydoethur said:
Okaaaaay...that's actually slightly beyond irrational.bigjohnowls said:
Why not burn the 32k labour voters of West Lancashire in 2017 but not the 14k Tories who voted for SKSydoethur said:
Has anyone ever considered trying to tap the burning and increasingly irrational hatred of Corbynistas for SKS as a renewable heat source?bigjohnowls said:West Lancashire Highest ever percentage for Labour
"Best result ever" say SKS fans.
At the same time Labour received the f"ewest votes ever" in the Comstituency.
Of course mostly down to the lowest turnout ever as often happens in a by election.
My view is those who are shouting BEST EVER like my own MP are still missing the lack of enthusiasm for SKS but undoubted visceral hatred of the Tories may outweigh that.
GE 2024 lowest ever turnout??
It was a by election and people can't be arsed I presume.
On a positive note, the economy is not in recession. Yay!0 -
If someone was cynical then they might think that this could be the reason Sunak kept her as Home Secretary. He probably realised (or someone close to him did) that “stopping the boats” isn’t that easy but better to pay lip service to it.TheScreamingEagles said:I see Suella Braverman has been captured by liberalist civil servants at the Home Office.
Suella Braverman has watered down Rishi Sunak’s pledge to “stop the boats” after committing only to a “dramatic reduction” in the number of migrants crossing the Channel.
The home secretary refused to give a timeframe for achieving the target, one of the government’s five priorities.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/suella-braverman-rows-back-on-boat-pledge-zjmgs9fk7
If he had put in place someone from the non headbanger wing then the headbangers would be going nuts and claiming that if someone “tough” like Suella had been HS then this would be solved.
By ensuring that someone who lives without a heart or soul has made the decision/come to that conclusion he has political cover on his right wing.1 -
'Calm down, you sound like the 1992 Sheffield Rally. Caution should be applied.bigjohnowls said:
"You know, it really IS an appalling result for the tories. A rock solid safe Labour seat with a massive 'meh' factor and Labour still increased their share to higher than they got in the 1997 Tony Blair-inspired landslide."Mexicanpete said:Heathener said:
Turns out to have been a very accurate prediction:Foxy said:Lancashire, election forecast:
Britain Elects forecast was quite accurate in Chester I recall. This is their prediction for tonight in West Lancs. Sounds about right to me.
LAB: 63% (+11)
CON: 26% (-10)
REF: 5% (+5)
GRN: 4% (+2)
LDEM: 3% (-2)
via Britain Predicts
sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/02/conser…
Result
LAB: 62.3% (+10.2)
CON: 25.4% (-10.9)
REF: 4.4% (+0.1)
LDEM: 4.1% (-0.8)
GRN: 2.9% (+0.5)
MRLP: 0.9% (+0.9)
Labour HOLD.
This is based on the same MRP that has 138 Tory MPs after the next GE and 424 Labour.
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/11/britain-predicts-who-would-win-election-held-today
Labour vote up from 59% in 2017 to 62% last night.'
The 10.5% swing in West Lancashire last night if repeated nationally would give a hung parliament, not a Labour majority, with the Tories still on 243 seats
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=34.2&LAB=43.5&LIB=11&Reform=2&Green=2&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.5&SCOTLAB=29.5&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=0&SCOTGreen=0&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=43&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase0 -
Johnson’s election as party leader and subsequent purge is at least partly responsible for the loss of talent.Foxy said:
I rather liked Penny, but she was dreadful in the contest.MarqueeMark said:
I was - and remain of the view - that Penny Mordaunt was the best Conservative leader to have fought the next election.Jonathan said:
Alas, I suspect you remain detached from a large part of your party. I remember how certain you were that Penny Mordaunt would be leader, right up until the point she was destroyed by her own side.MarqueeMark said:
She is hated and ridiculed by members.darkage said:
What is most absurd about the Conservative party is that Truss has standing in it at all. She is hated and ridiculed by voters. So why does she have this platform?SirNorfolkPassmore said:Both Johnson and Truss have an eye to the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party that will surely follow an election loss.
Sunak is oddly disconnected from it in a way. He will trudge on to defeat with the only realistic strategy in the circumstances of "don't scare the horses" economic credibility to avoid making the situation worse, coupled with some tired old sh1te about small boats and Brexit dividends to shore up the core. But it is hard to believe that's a strategy for turning round the supertanker, just running it aground at slightly lower speed to limit the damage.
I think Johnson and Truss are aware of that and are happy enough for Sunak to take on what is a fool's errand. They may talk the talk, but I doubt they seriously believe the next election can be salvaged - a longer game is at play.
She is also hated and ridiculed by MPs.
The only reason not to stand down at the next election is the brass neck that led her to think she would be a great Prime Minister first time around. She gets to perform that trick exactly once.
The reason Boris has not yet stood down is that as an MP he can better play the Ukraine card. Which he sees as a route to making squillions.
Sunak doesn't need to remotely worry about either of them.
That the Daily Mail went in with both feet - presumably because of some bat-shit notion that Boris could yet come back as leader - has much to answer for.
Useless as he is, Sunak was actually the best of a very poor field in last summers contest. One reason that the nation is such a mess is that Brexit has hollowed out what little talent there was in the party.0 -
It is fact, though, that a lot more people voted Labour under their worst ever leader (even in 2019) than could be arsed to vote for SKS yesterday!!Mexicanpete said:
You are being more than disingenuous to the hapless Starmer. You keep quoting peak Corbyn by ignoring 2019, and by your own admission, last night the hopeless Starmer was 3% ahead of 2017 Corbyn, which bearing in mind Starmer's abject uselessness must suggest Corbyn is even more abjectly useless.bigjohnowls said:
Why did 18k Labour voters who turned out for the "worst ever" leader stay at home?ydoethur said:
Okaaaaay...that's actually slightly beyond irrational.bigjohnowls said:
Why not burn the 32k labour voters of West Lancashire in 2017 but not the 14k Tories who voted for SKSydoethur said:
Has anyone ever considered trying to tap the burning and increasingly irrational hatred of Corbynistas for SKS as a renewable heat source?bigjohnowls said:West Lancashire Highest ever percentage for Labour
"Best result ever" say SKS fans.
At the same time Labour received the f"ewest votes ever" in the Comstituency.
Of course mostly down to the lowest turnout ever as often happens in a by election.
My view is those who are shouting BEST EVER like my own MP are still missing the lack of enthusiasm for SKS but undoubted visceral hatred of the Tories may outweigh that.
GE 2024 lowest ever turnout??
It was a by election and people can't be arsed I presume.
On a positive note, the economy is not in recession. Yay!0 -
It wasn't appalling at all, the swing Labour got last night wouldn't even give Starmer a majority.Mortimer said:The Lancashire result is appalling for the Tory leadership.
Hunt and Sunak to go after May looking increasingly likely to me. I suspect Johnson will be back.
It was a bad result yes but certainly wasn't an appalling one and indeed an improvement on the swings to LAB Truss was getting in polls and even better for Rishi than some of the swings against Boris in by elections0 -
I am not sure she is the red hot political genius that she and @MarqueeMark give her credit for.Foxy said:
I rather liked Penny, but she was dreadful in the contest.MarqueeMark said:
I was - and remain of the view - that Penny Mordaunt was the best Conservative leader to have fought the next election.Jonathan said:
Alas, I suspect you remain detached from a large part of your party. I remember how certain you were that Penny Mordaunt would be leader, right up until the point she was destroyed by her own side.MarqueeMark said:
She is hated and ridiculed by members.darkage said:
What is most absurd about the Conservative party is that Truss has standing in it at all. She is hated and ridiculed by voters. So why does she have this platform?SirNorfolkPassmore said:Both Johnson and Truss have an eye to the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party that will surely follow an election loss.
Sunak is oddly disconnected from it in a way. He will trudge on to defeat with the only realistic strategy in the circumstances of "don't scare the horses" economic credibility to avoid making the situation worse, coupled with some tired old sh1te about small boats and Brexit dividends to shore up the core. But it is hard to believe that's a strategy for turning round the supertanker, just running it aground at slightly lower speed to limit the damage.
I think Johnson and Truss are aware of that and are happy enough for Sunak to take on what is a fool's errand. They may talk the talk, but I doubt they seriously believe the next election can be salvaged - a longer game is at play.
She is also hated and ridiculed by MPs.
The only reason not to stand down at the next election is the brass neck that led her to think she would be a great Prime Minister first time around. She gets to perform that trick exactly once.
The reason Boris has not yet stood down is that as an MP he can better play the Ukraine card. Which he sees as a route to making squillions.
Sunak doesn't need to remotely worry about either of them.
That the Daily Mail went in with both feet - presumably because of some bat-shit notion that Boris could yet come back as leader - has much to answer for.
Useless as he is, Sunak was actually the best of a very poor field in last summers contest. One reason that the nation is such a mess is that Brexit has hollowed out what little talent there was in the party.
The "Goodness me, I'm a great one- nation Tory, I've organised and opened two new food banks in Cosham" is not necessarily the political win it might first appear, but certainly she is less dreadful than most of the alternative runners and riders.0 -
West Lancashire: Slightly underbaked for Labour to my eyes, probably a little less good than either Stretford or Chester, but still not bad.
Main difference in the slightly lower swing is that the Con vote share fall this time is only marginally bigger than the Labour vote share gain (<10%) where as in Chester Con lost 40% vote share more than Labour gained.
If not exactly a recovery, signs of Conservatives at least stemming the blood loss?1 -
It's all Theresa May's fault.Peter_the_Punter said:
I'd like to meet the guy who put O'Mara's name forward and hear what he has to say for himself. In my book, he's more culpable than O'Mara himself who is plainly a deeply troubled individual.Sandpit said:
I always try and avoid the more hyperbolic descriptions given to politicians - although I did have quite a bit to say about Corbyn being the leader of the Labour Party - I genuinely think that most of them have good, if misplaced, intentions, and like the concept of Parliamentary language that refers to elected Members as honourable people.Peter_the_Punter said:
Do you think he was nominated by the same guy who did Jared O'Mara?Sandpit said:
Well they sure as hell didn’t do much research on him before the election.rcs1000 said:I'm beginning to wonder if George Santos is actually a Democrat plant:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/09/santos-charged-theft-2017-dog-breeders-00082091
But then occasionally, someone like Santos or O’Mara makes it through, and I have to reconsider…
The rumour I have heard is that Hallam Labour Party believed Mrs May when she said she wouldn't hold a snap election.
In early 2017 I speculated on here that it was more likely the Tories take Hallam than Labour did.0 -
Inflation is rarely so easily defeated. Yes, the primary cause is (largely) gone. But then you have the secondary and tertiary and so effects - wage rises have a momentum. And the price rises they cause.Sandpit said:
There’s a good chance of inflation actually going negative later in the year, as last year’s price rises work their way out of the numbers. Energy bills in particular might fall substantially for many people, which will feel like a pay rise after a difficult winter.Stuartinromford said:
Trouble is that it's going to feel like a recession. Even now, tend growth is 1.5% or so (isn't it?), so the vibe is closer to "bad" rather than "normal", let alone "good".DavidL said:
But no shrinkage either. As I said a week or so ago the long recession forecast was too pessimistic. We are going to be broadly flat with some small pick up at the end as inflation falls boost spending power again.dixiedean said:Recession avoided.
No growth in final quarter.
As with Norma Lamont's Green Shoots, Conservatives saying "we're not actually in recession" may well just annoy the public even more.
Think of it as a complex series of waves interacting.1 -
UNS, especially in a by election is not necessarily your friend.HYUFD said:
It wasn't appalling at all, the swing Labour got last night wouldn't even give Starmer a majority.Mortimer said:The Lancashire result is appalling for the Tory leadership.
Hunt and Sunak to go after May looking increasingly likely to me. I suspect Johnson will be back.
It was a bad result yes but certainly wasn't an appalling one and indeed an improvement on the swings to LAB Truss was getting in polls and even better for Rishi than some of the swings against Boris in by elections1 -
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Hallam is a Remain voting seat full of academics. The Tories never had a chance their even in early 2017, it was always going to be a LD v Labour battle nowTheScreamingEagles said:
It's all Theresa May's fault.Peter_the_Punter said:
I'd like to meet the guy who put O'Mara's name forward and hear what he has to say for himself. In my book, he's more culpable than O'Mara himself who is plainly a deeply troubled individual.Sandpit said:
I always try and avoid the more hyperbolic descriptions given to politicians - although I did have quite a bit to say about Corbyn being the leader of the Labour Party - I genuinely think that most of them have good, if misplaced, intentions, and like the concept of Parliamentary language that refers to elected Members as honourable people.Peter_the_Punter said:
Do you think he was nominated by the same guy who did Jared O'Mara?Sandpit said:
Well they sure as hell didn’t do much research on him before the election.rcs1000 said:I'm beginning to wonder if George Santos is actually a Democrat plant:
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/09/santos-charged-theft-2017-dog-breeders-00082091
But then occasionally, someone like Santos or O’Mara makes it through, and I have to reconsider…
The rumour I have heard is that Hallam Labour Party believed Mrs May when she said she wouldn't hold a snap election.
In early 2017 I speculated on here that it was more likely the Tories take Hallam than Labour did.0 -
That's actually a tiny wafer-thin Labour majority given Sinn Fein abstentionism. But in general you'd expect the opposition to underperform by-election swings.HYUFD said:The 10.5% swing in West Lancashire last night if repeated nationally would give a hung parliament, not a Labour majority, with the Tories still on 243 seats
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=34.2&LAB=43.5&LIB=11&Reform=2&Green=2&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.5&SCOTLAB=29.5&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=0&SCOTGreen=0&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=43&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase0 -
Another deleted0