The Lancashire result is appalling for the Tory leadership.
Hunt and Sunak to go after May looking increasingly likely to me. I suspect Johnson will be back.
It wasn't appalling at all, the swing Labour got last night wouldn't even give Starmer a majority.
It was a bad result yes but certainly wasn't an appalling one and indeed an improvement on the swings to LAB Truss was getting in polls and even better for Rishi than some of the swings against Boris in by elections
Well they sure as hell didn’t do much research on him before the election.
Do you think he was nominated by the same guy who did Jared O'Mara?
I always try and avoid the more hyperbolic descriptions given to politicians - although I did have quite a bit to say about Corbyn being the leader of the Labour Party - I genuinely think that most of them have good, if misplaced, intentions, and like the concept of Parliamentary language that refers to elected Members as honourable people.
But then occasionally, someone like Santos or O’Mara makes it through, and I have to reconsider…
I'd like to meet the guy who put O'Mara's name forward and hear what he has to say for himself. In my book, he's more culpable than O'Mara himself who is plainly a deeply troubled individual.
It's all Theresa May's fault.
The rumour I have heard is that Hallam Labour Party believed Mrs May when she said she wouldn't hold a snap election.
In early 2017 I speculated on here that it was more likely the Tories take Hallam than Labour did.
Hallam is a Remain voting seat full of academics. The Tories never had a chance their even in early 2017, it was always going to be a LD v Labour battle now
As @tlg86 will tell you, he got 25/1 on Labour winning Hallam in April/May 2017.
Both Johnson and Truss have an eye to the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party that will surely follow an election loss.
Sunak is oddly disconnected from it in a way. He will trudge on to defeat with the only realistic strategy in the circumstances of "don't scare the horses" economic credibility to avoid making the situation worse, coupled with some tired old sh1te about small boats and Brexit dividends to shore up the core. But it is hard to believe that's a strategy for turning round the supertanker, just running it aground at slightly lower speed to limit the damage.
I think Johnson and Truss are aware of that and are happy enough for Sunak to take on what is a fool's errand. They may talk the talk, but I doubt they seriously believe the next election can be salvaged - a longer game is at play.
What is most absurd about the Conservative party is that Truss has standing in it at all. She is hated and ridiculed by voters. So why does she have this platform?
She is hated and ridiculed by members.
She is also hated and ridiculed by MPs.
The only reason not to stand down at the next election is the brass neck that led her to think she would be a great Prime Minister first time around. She gets to perform that trick exactly once.
The reason Boris has not yet stood down is that as an MP he can better play the Ukraine card. Which he sees as a route to making squillions.
Sunak doesn't need to remotely worry about either of them.
Alas, I suspect you remain detached from a large part of your party. I remember how certain you were that Penny Mordaunt would be leader, right up until the point she was destroyed by her own side.
I was - and remain of the view - that Penny Mordaunt was the best Conservative leader to have fought the next election.
That the Daily Mail went in with both feet - presumably because of some bat-shit notion that Boris could yet come back as leader - has much to answer for.
I rather liked Penny, but she was dreadful in the contest.
Useless as he is, Sunak was actually the best of a very poor field in last summers contest. One reason that the nation is such a mess is that Brexit has hollowed out what little talent there was in the party.
Johnson’s election as party leader and subsequent purge is at least partly responsible for the loss of talent.
Do Labour, the Lib Dems or the SNP have any talent ? This seems to be the worst lot of MPs there has ever been. If you have talent why would you want to be an MP and have to live under the 24 hour news/social media microscope?
But no shrinkage either. As I said a week or so ago the long recession forecast was too pessimistic. We are going to be broadly flat with some small pick up at the end as inflation falls boost spending power again.
Recalling my A-Level politics course, we are enjoying Stagflation. Headline economic performance of zero Real world economic performance of a lot worse than zero as inflation erodes spending power.
Tories want to be very careful before starting to crow about having avoided a recession. Most lived experiences are not rosy, and telling people that what they are experiencing is actually wrong is a stupid way to campaign.
But they will do it anyway. Knobcheese Banff and Buchan MP David Duguid has just issued his latest constituency leaflet. A section crowing about the successes of fishing post-Brexit. He says he is engaging with Fishing people - not trying very hard as we had newspaper stories from local fishing association bosses bemoaning how Brexit has been terrible and how they were used as "poster boys" by tossers like Duguid.
Constituency maps of various polls always seem to show Duguid narrowly keeping his seat. I question that - telling one of the big industries up here that they are wrong about their industry is destructo-stupid.
The Lancashire result is appalling for the Tory leadership.
Hunt and Sunak to go after May looking increasingly likely to me. I suspect Johnson will be back.
It wasn't appalling at all, the swing Labour got last night wouldn't even give Starmer a majority.
It was a bad result yes but certainly wasn't an appalling one and indeed an improvement on the swings to LAB Truss was getting in polls and even better for Rishi than some of the swings against Boris in by elections
Here I would believe the MRP. There is a ceiling effect on swing.
While the Tories are polling just a few percent lower than April 2019 in the fag end years of the May government, the difference is that Labour is polling much better. This points to a significant drubbing for the Tories in the May Locals.
Well they sure as hell didn’t do much research on him before the election.
Do you think he was nominated by the same guy who did Jared O'Mara?
I always try and avoid the more hyperbolic descriptions given to politicians - although I did have quite a bit to say about Corbyn being the leader of the Labour Party - I genuinely think that most of them have good, if misplaced, intentions, and like the concept of Parliamentary language that refers to elected Members as honourable people.
But then occasionally, someone like Santos or O’Mara makes it through, and I have to reconsider…
I'd like to meet the guy who put O'Mara's name forward and hear what he has to say for himself. In my book, he's more culpable than O'Mara himself who is plainly a deeply troubled individual.
It's all Theresa May's fault.
The rumour I have heard is that Hallam Labour Party believed Mrs May when she said she wouldn't hold a snap election.
In early 2017 I speculated on here that it was more likely the Tories take Hallam than Labour did.
Hallam is a Remain voting seat full of academics. The Tories never had a chance their even in early 2017, it was always going to be a LD v Labour battle now
As @tlg86 will tell you, he got 25/1 on Labour winning Hallam in April/May 2017.
From my spreadsheet:
Conservatives to win Sheffield Hallam | Ladbrokes | 16-1 | £5.00 Labour to win Sheffield Hallam | Ladbrokes | 25-1 | £3.00
The tip was to back the Tories, but for some reason I thought Labour were worth a punt too.
Interesting that the threader only mentions two former PMs. There is a third still around.
Major? No he's retired. Thatcher? No, she's six feet under.
Oh, you're thinking of big necklace lady, aren't you? Whilst she is clearly the best of the bunch, chances of her coming back are approximately zero.
That would be to admit that the sugar frenzy of the last few years was a mistake, and the current Conservative generation can never do that.
Thatcher six feet under would still be a better PM than Truss.
I wonder though if May might return to the cabinet at some point. She's a senior figure and unquestionably able. There might be an opening as say, leader of the House if Wallace moves on and Mordaunt returned to Defence.
Equally, she may not want to. She's on a nice earner outside Parliament making speeches, and that would have to go if she became a Minister again. And unlike Johnson she surely knows she has no chance of the leadership again unless she is a Grimond in a real, real crisis.
I think we can safely say she's not a Grimond!
But she would probably be willing to serve responsibly under someone else and isn't, as you say, after the top job, her leadership skills having been already found rather wanting.
I meant, Jo Grimond who returned as acting leader of the Liberals during the Thorpe affair.
Grimond was an inspirational figure who set the Liberals on the long path to recovery, and is still revered among many older members. His leadership was before my time - believe it or not, I was inspired to join by Thorpe - but I met many people during my time in the party who had joined because of Grimond, and later gone on to become leading councillors or MPs. Without someone like Grimond it's quite possible the party would still be stuck on 5% (and, yes, I anticipate that is setting you up for a witty reply).
There was a magnetism in Grimond's live presence that did not come over so well on the tv or in the press.
Well they sure as hell didn’t do much research on him before the election.
Do you think he was nominated by the same guy who did Jared O'Mara?
I always try and avoid the more hyperbolic descriptions given to politicians - although I did have quite a bit to say about Corbyn being the leader of the Labour Party - I genuinely think that most of them have good, if misplaced, intentions, and like the concept of Parliamentary language that refers to elected Members as honourable people.
But then occasionally, someone like Santos or O’Mara makes it through, and I have to reconsider…
I'd like to meet the guy who put O'Mara's name forward and hear what he has to say for himself. In my book, he's more culpable than O'Mara himself who is plainly a deeply troubled individual.
It's all Theresa May's fault.
The rumour I have heard is that Hallam Labour Party believed Mrs May when she said she wouldn't hold a snap election.
In early 2017 I speculated on here that it was more likely the Tories take Hallam than Labour did.
Hallam is a Remain voting seat full of academics. The Tories never had a chance their even in early 2017, it was always going to be a LD v Labour battle now
As @tlg86 will tell you, he got 25/1 on Labour winning Hallam in April/May 2017.
From my spreadsheet:
Conservatives to win Sheffield Hallam | Ladbrokes | 16-1 | £5.00 Labour to win Sheffield Hallam | Ladbrokes | 25-1 | £3.00
The tip was to back the Tories, but for some reason I thought Labour were worth a punt too.
Yeah it was my tip to. back the Tories, I got the feeling something was up.
I think the Tories for Clegg from 2015 were getting much smaller in 2017.
I see that the spectre of Boris still hangs over proceedings. I could see that as a desperation play in mid24 but not this year. Though rationally the only possible way they could justify yet another change of leader would be to reinstate the 2019 line-up.
More personnel changes than 1980s Black Sabbath is not a good look for a party who wants to look like they are in government.
Both Johnson and Truss have an eye to the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party that will surely follow an election loss.
Sunak is oddly disconnected from it in a way. He will trudge on to defeat with the only realistic strategy in the circumstances of "don't scare the horses" economic credibility to avoid making the situation worse, coupled with some tired old sh1te about small boats and Brexit dividends to shore up the core. But it is hard to believe that's a strategy for turning round the supertanker, just running it aground at slightly lower speed to limit the damage.
I think Johnson and Truss are aware of that and are happy enough for Sunak to take on what is a fool's errand. They may talk the talk, but I doubt they seriously believe the next election can be salvaged - a longer game is at play.
What is most absurd about the Conservative party is that Truss has standing in it at all. She is hated and ridiculed by voters. So why does she have this platform?
She is hated and ridiculed by members.
She is also hated and ridiculed by MPs.
The only reason not to stand down at the next election is the brass neck that led her to think she would be a great Prime Minister first time around. She gets to perform that trick exactly once.
The reason Boris has not yet stood down is that as an MP he can better play the Ukraine card. Which he sees as a route to making squillions.
Sunak doesn't need to remotely worry about either of them.
Alas, I suspect you remain detached from a large part of your party. I remember how certain you were that Penny Mordaunt would be leader, right up until the point she was destroyed by her own side.
I was - and remain of the view - that Penny Mordaunt was the best Conservative leader to have fought the next election.
That the Daily Mail went in with both feet - presumably because of some bat-shit notion that Boris could yet come back as leader - has much to answer for.
I rather liked Penny, but she was dreadful in the contest.
Useless as he is, Sunak was actually the best of a very poor field in last summers contest. One reason that the nation is such a mess is that Brexit has hollowed out what little talent there was in the party.
I am not sure she is the red hot political genius that she and @MarqueeMark give her credit for.
The "Goodness me, I'm a great one- nation Tory, I've organised and opened two new food banks in Cosham" is not necessarily the political win it might first appear, but certainly she is less dreadful than most of the alternative runners and riders.
Not showing great political nous here siding with 30p Lee.
Interesting that the threader only mentions two former PMs. There is a third still around.
Major? No he's retired. Thatcher? No, she's six feet under.
Oh, you're thinking of big necklace lady, aren't you? Whilst she is clearly the best of the bunch, chances of her coming back are approximately zero.
That would be to admit that the sugar frenzy of the last few years was a mistake, and the current Conservative generation can never do that.
Thatcher six feet under would still be a better PM than Truss.
I wonder though if May might return to the cabinet at some point. She's a senior figure and unquestionably able. There might be an opening as say, leader of the House if Wallace moves on and Mordaunt returned to Defence.
Equally, she may not want to. She's on a nice earner outside Parliament making speeches, and that would have to go if she became a Minister again. And unlike Johnson she surely knows she has no chance of the leadership again unless she is a Grimond in a real, real crisis.
I think we can safely say she's not a Grimond!
But she would probably be willing to serve responsibly under someone else and isn't, as you say, after the top job, her leadership skills having been already found rather wanting.
I meant, Jo Grimond who returned as acting leader of the Liberals during the Thorpe affair.
Grimond was an inspirational figure who set the Liberals on the long path to recovery, and is still revered among many older members. His leadership was before my time - believe it or not, I was inspired to join by Thorpe - but I met many people during my time in the party who had joined because of Grimond, and later gone on to become leading councillors or MPs. Without someone like Grimond it's quite possible the party would still be stuck on 5% (and, yes, I anticipate that is setting you up for a witty reply).
There was a magnetism in Grimond's live presence that did not come over so well on the tv or in the press.
It is really quite hard to see Jeremy Thorpe's appeal now, though that was a thing at the time.
Both Johnson and Truss have an eye to the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party that will surely follow an election loss.
Sunak is oddly disconnected from it in a way. He will trudge on to defeat with the only realistic strategy in the circumstances of "don't scare the horses" economic credibility to avoid making the situation worse, coupled with some tired old sh1te about small boats and Brexit dividends to shore up the core. But it is hard to believe that's a strategy for turning round the supertanker, just running it aground at slightly lower speed to limit the damage.
I think Johnson and Truss are aware of that and are happy enough for Sunak to take on what is a fool's errand. They may talk the talk, but I doubt they seriously believe the next election can be salvaged - a longer game is at play.
What is most absurd about the Conservative party is that Truss has standing in it at all. She is hated and ridiculed by voters. So why does she have this platform?
She is hated and ridiculed by members.
She is also hated and ridiculed by MPs.
The only reason not to stand down at the next election is the brass neck that led her to think she would be a great Prime Minister first time around. She gets to perform that trick exactly once.
The reason Boris has not yet stood down is that as an MP he can better play the Ukraine card. Which he sees as a route to making squillions.
Sunak doesn't need to remotely worry about either of them.
Alas, I suspect you remain detached from a large part of your party. I remember how certain you were that Penny Mordaunt would be leader, right up until the point she was destroyed by her own side.
I was - and remain of the view - that Penny Mordaunt was the best Conservative leader to have fought the next election.
That the Daily Mail went in with both feet - presumably because of some bat-shit notion that Boris could yet come back as leader - has much to answer for.
I rather liked Penny, but she was dreadful in the contest.
Useless as he is, Sunak was actually the best of a very poor field in last summers contest. One reason that the nation is such a mess is that Brexit has hollowed out what little talent there was in the party.
I am not sure she is the red hot political genius that she and @MarqueeMark give her credit for.
The "Goodness me, I'm a great one- nation Tory, I've organised and opened two new food banks in Cosham" is not necessarily the political win it might first appear, but certainly she is less dreadful than most of the alternative runners and riders.
She was doing well, and had an good audience within the party, until she was exposed as having introduced a Bill, as the Sectretary of State, that was written by Stonewall - and then lied about it.
The bill in question, was awfully close to what Nicola Sturgeon is in so much trouble for at the moment.
That’s a terrible result for Labour then. Terrrrrrrrible.
On basis that’s such an old MRP, Rishi wasn’t even PM, we’ve had 3 updates since then, Labour are just not getting real votes to match the new MRPs is the truth behind your spin Foxy. (the one that has about 60 or so Tory MPs after next election, after HY adjusted its errors so no longer in third place).
You know on the pebble counting wiki page, MRP has its own sub section, so there is no excuse for you posting such tardiness 🧐
King Charles III is a pervert, as his adultery shows, he has no respect for women.
The King and I!
Bizarre moment MailOnline reporter trying out the skimpy dress that broke the internet is spotted by KING CHARLES as his royal car pulls up at traffic lights (and his face says it all!)
What we really need is a Tory defence by-election in a seat where their majority over Labour is in the 7-10K range to see if the polling and prediction models are really on the money. Another by-election in a safe Lab seat isn't telling us very much more, except that Reform are not polling that high in real elections.
That’s a terrible result for Labour then. Terrrrrrrrible.
On basis that’s such an old MRP, Rishi wasn’t even PM, we’ve had 3 updates since then, Labour are just not getting real votes to match the new MRPs is the truth behind your spin Foxy. (the one that has about 60 or so Tory MPs after next election, after HY adjusted its errors so no longer in third place).
You know on the pebble counting wiki page, MRP has its own sub section, so there is no excuse for you posting such tardiness 🧐
The 10.5% swing in West Lancashire last night if repeated nationally would give a hung parliament, not a Labour majority, with the Tories still on 243 seats
That's actually a tiny wafer-thin Labour majority given Sinn Fein abstentionism. But in general you'd expect the opposition to underperform by-election swings.
The maximum possible swing gets smaller, the safer the Labour seat is.
Core vote means that the pool of potential switchers is even smaller.
How much of a swing *could* Labour get in Knowsley, given a hypothetical by-election?
What we really need is a Tory defence by-election in a seat where their majority over Labour is in the 7-10K range to see if the polling and prediction models are really on the money. Another by-election in a safe Lab seat isn't telling us very much more, except that Reform are not polling that high in real elections.
King Charles III is a pervert, as his adultery shows, he has no respect for women.
The King and I!
Bizarre moment MailOnline reporter trying out the skimpy dress that broke the internet is spotted by KING CHARLES as his royal car pulls up at traffic lights (and his face says it all!)
But no shrinkage either. As I said a week or so ago the long recession forecast was too pessimistic. We are going to be broadly flat with some small pick up at the end as inflation falls boost spending power again.
Trouble is that it's going to feel like a recession. Even now, tend growth is 1.5% or so (isn't it?), so the vibe is closer to "bad" rather than "normal", let alone "good".
As with Norma Lamont's Green Shoots, Conservatives saying "we're not actually in recession" may well just annoy the public even more.
There’s a good chance of inflation actually going negative later in the year, as last year’s price rises work their way out of the numbers. Energy bills in particular might fall substantially for many people, which will feel like a pay rise after a difficult winter.
Question is why do government let them gouge people given the prices are less than they were 3 years ago. They set the stupid cap which is just a licence for them to chisel the public. Then the clowns in government subsidise it, stupidity you could not make up. Why can it be 5 times as expensive in UK as rest of Europe.
King Charles III is a pervert, as his adultery shows, he has no respect for women.
The King and I!
Bizarre moment MailOnline reporter trying out the skimpy dress that broke the internet is spotted by KING CHARLES as his royal car pulls up at traffic lights (and his face says it all!)
What we really need is a Tory defence by-election in a seat where their majority over Labour is in the 7-10K range to see if the polling and prediction models are really on the money. Another by-election in a safe Lab seat isn't telling us very much more, except that Reform are not polling that high in real elections.
What we really need is a Tory defence by-election in a seat where their majority over Labour is in the 7-10K range to see if the polling and prediction models are really on the money. Another by-election in a safe Lab seat isn't telling us very much more, except that Reform are not polling that high in real elections.
King Charles III is a pervert, as his adultery shows, he has no respect for women.
The King and I!
Bizarre moment MailOnline reporter trying out the skimpy dress that broke the internet is spotted by KING CHARLES as his royal car pulls up at traffic lights (and his face says it all!)
But no shrinkage either. As I said a week or so ago the long recession forecast was too pessimistic. We are going to be broadly flat with some small pick up at the end as inflation falls boost spending power again.
Trouble is that it's going to feel like a recession. Even now, tend growth is 1.5% or so (isn't it?), so the vibe is closer to "bad" rather than "normal", let alone "good".
As with Norma Lamont's Green Shoots, Conservatives saying "we're not actually in recession" may well just annoy the public even more.
There’s a good chance of inflation actually going negative later in the year, as last year’s price rises work their way out of the numbers. Energy bills in particular might fall substantially for many people, which will feel like a pay rise after a difficult winter.
Inflation is rarely so easily defeated. Yes, the primary cause is (largely) gone. But then you have the secondary and tertiary and so effects - wage rises have a momentum. And the price rises they cause.
Think of it as a complex series of waves interacting.
Further, this is, I think, why the Government is fighting the battle on pay rises. Which some think electorally foolish.
The theory would go that an above inflation settlement in large section of public sector employment would trigger wage claims elsewhere. And the ripple effects would make the inflation "wave" last longer.
Both Johnson and Truss have an eye to the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party that will surely follow an election loss.
Sunak is oddly disconnected from it in a way. He will trudge on to defeat with the only realistic strategy in the circumstances of "don't scare the horses" economic credibility to avoid making the situation worse, coupled with some tired old sh1te about small boats and Brexit dividends to shore up the core. But it is hard to believe that's a strategy for turning round the supertanker, just running it aground at slightly lower speed to limit the damage.
I think Johnson and Truss are aware of that and are happy enough for Sunak to take on what is a fool's errand. They may talk the talk, but I doubt they seriously believe the next election can be salvaged - a longer game is at play.
What is most absurd about the Conservative party is that Truss has standing in it at all. She is hated and ridiculed by voters. So why does she have this platform?
She is hated and ridiculed by members.
She is also hated and ridiculed by MPs.
The only reason not to stand down at the next election is the brass neck that led her to think she would be a great Prime Minister first time around. She gets to perform that trick exactly once.
The reason Boris has not yet stood down is that as an MP he can better play the Ukraine card. Which he sees as a route to making squillions.
Sunak doesn't need to remotely worry about either of them.
Alas, I suspect you remain detached from a large part of your party. I remember how certain you were that Penny Mordaunt would be leader, right up until the point she was destroyed by her own side.
I was - and remain of the view - that Penny Mordaunt was the best Conservative leader to have fought the next election.
That the Daily Mail went in with both feet - presumably because of some bat-shit notion that Boris could yet come back as leader - has much to answer for.
I rather liked Penny, but she was dreadful in the contest.
Useless as he is, Sunak was actually the best of a very poor field in last summers contest. One reason that the nation is such a mess is that Brexit has hollowed out what little talent there was in the party.
Johnson’s election as party leader and subsequent purge is at least partly responsible for the loss of talent.
Do Labour, the Lib Dems or the SNP have any talent ? This seems to be the worst lot of MPs there has ever been. If you have talent why would you want to be an MP and have to live under the 24 hour news/social media microscope?
They are well paid and live on huge unlimited expenses , quaffing cheap bevvy and gorging on cheap food. Wages just sit in bank, gold plated pensions , lots and lots of holidays , whilst they furnish multiple houses with all eth latest gear and pay relatives big salaries as well. Do you need any more.
Interesting that the threader only mentions two former PMs. There is a third still around.
Major? No he's retired. Thatcher? No, she's six feet under.
Oh, you're thinking of big necklace lady, aren't you? Whilst she is clearly the best of the bunch, chances of her coming back are approximately zero.
That would be to admit that the sugar frenzy of the last few years was a mistake, and the current Conservative generation can never do that.
Thatcher six feet under would still be a better PM than Truss.
I wonder though if May might return to the cabinet at some point. She's a senior figure and unquestionably able. There might be an opening as say, leader of the House if Wallace moves on and Mordaunt returned to Defence.
Equally, she may not want to. She's on a nice earner outside Parliament making speeches, and that would have to go if she became a Minister again. And unlike Johnson she surely knows she has no chance of the leadership again unless she is a Grimond in a real, real crisis.
I think we can safely say she's not a Grimond!
But she would probably be willing to serve responsibly under someone else and isn't, as you say, after the top job, her leadership skills having been already found rather wanting.
I meant, Jo Grimond who returned as acting leader of the Liberals during the Thorpe affair.
Grimond was an inspirational figure who set the Liberals on the long path to recovery, and is still revered among many older members. His leadership was before my time - believe it or not, I was inspired to join by Thorpe - but I met many people during my time in the party who had joined because of Grimond, and later gone on to become leading councillors or MPs. Without someone like Grimond it's quite possible the party would still be stuck on 5% (and, yes, I anticipate that is setting you up for a witty reply).
There was a magnetism in Grimond's live presence that did not come over so well on the tv or in the press.
It is really quite hard to see Jeremy Thorpe's appeal now, though that was a thing at the time.
He was a very good speaker, with a nice turn of phrase.
What we really need is a Tory defence by-election in a seat where their majority over Labour is in the 7-10K range to see if the polling and prediction models are really on the money. Another by-election in a safe Lab seat isn't telling us very much more, except that Reform are not polling that high in real elections.
At the moment there are two ways of reading the combination of the polls and this result.
One is that Labour aren't getting as much swing in real elections, and maybe not enough, full stop.
The other is that they're not piling up votes in safe seats, which may mean they're getting more where it counts.
The Lancashire result is appalling for the Tory leadership.
Hunt and Sunak to go after May looking increasingly likely to me. I suspect Johnson will be back.
It wasn't appalling at all, the swing Labour got last night wouldn't even give Starmer a majority.
It was a bad result yes but certainly wasn't an appalling one and indeed an improvement on the swings to LAB Truss was getting in polls and even better for Rishi than some of the swings against Boris in by elections
Here I would believe the MRP. There is a ceiling effect on swing.
While the Tories are polling just a few percent lower than April 2019 in the fag end years of the May government, the difference is that Labour is polling much better. This points to a significant drubbing for the Tories in the May Locals.
The LDs are polling much lower than 2019 too though.
So while the Tories will lose seats to Labour they may even gain some from the LDs, especially as most of the seats up are in English shires where there are relatively fewer Labour v Tory contests and more Tory v LD contests than UK wide.
London and Wales don't have elections in May for example
But no shrinkage either. As I said a week or so ago the long recession forecast was too pessimistic. We are going to be broadly flat with some small pick up at the end as inflation falls boost spending power again.
Recalling my A-Level politics course, we are enjoying Stagflation. Headline economic performance of zero Real world economic performance of a lot worse than zero as inflation erodes spending power.
Tories want to be very careful before starting to crow about having avoided a recession. Most lived experiences are not rosy, and telling people that what they are experiencing is actually wrong is a stupid way to campaign.
But they will do it anyway. Knobcheese Banff and Buchan MP David Duguid has just issued his latest constituency leaflet. A section crowing about the successes of fishing post-Brexit. He says he is engaging with Fishing people - not trying very hard as we had newspaper stories from local fishing association bosses bemoaning how Brexit has been terrible and how they were used as "poster boys" by tossers like Duguid.
Constituency maps of various polls always seem to show Duguid narrowly keeping his seat. I question that - telling one of the big industries up here that they are wrong about their industry is destructo-stupid.
They are getting just what they deserve, they voted the Tory turd in , were big unionist helpers and wanted out of EU. They are getting their just desserts from their craven masters, a good shafting was what they were told they would get.
King Charles III is a pervert, as his adultery shows, he has no respect for women.
The King and I!
Bizarre moment MailOnline reporter trying out the skimpy dress that broke the internet is spotted by KING CHARLES as his royal car pulls up at traffic lights (and his face says it all!)
King Charles III is a pervert, as his adultery shows, he has no respect for women.
The King and I!
Bizarre moment MailOnline reporter trying out the skimpy dress that broke the internet is spotted by KING CHARLES as his royal car pulls up at traffic lights (and his face says it all!)
Interesting that the threader only mentions two former PMs. There is a third still around.
Major? No he's retired. Thatcher? No, she's six feet under.
Oh, you're thinking of big necklace lady, aren't you? Whilst she is clearly the best of the bunch, chances of her coming back are approximately zero.
That would be to admit that the sugar frenzy of the last few years was a mistake, and the current Conservative generation can never do that.
Thatcher six feet under would still be a better PM than Truss.
As the years go by and we get one failed premiership after another it makes Mrs Thatcher's achievements seem more and more impressive.
She was undoubtedly one of the greatest figures the democratic world has ever produced.
Pass the sick bucket(s)
Yo malc
Havent been on for a while so catching up. Are you still working or have you retired yet ?
Hello Alan , Nice to see you on. I am still here , working from home. Getting paid lots and not tough for me and keeps me partially away from bad habits. Don't travel at all nowadays. How are you doing. @Alanbrooke
King Charles III is a pervert, as his adultery shows, he has no respect for women.
The King and I!
Bizarre moment MailOnline reporter trying out the skimpy dress that broke the internet is spotted by KING CHARLES as his royal car pulls up at traffic lights (and his face says it all!)
That’s a terrible result for Labour then. Terrrrrrrrible.
On basis that’s such an old MRP, Rishi wasn’t even PM, we’ve had 3 updates since then, Labour are just not getting real votes to match the new MRPs is the truth behind your spin Foxy. (the one that has about 60 or so Tory MPs after next election, after HY adjusted its errors so no longer in third place).
You know on the pebble counting wiki page, MRP has its own sub section, so there is no excuse for you posting such tardiness 🧐
It is time for the Tories to go back to their constituencies and prepare for irrelevance.
But by your voting evidence, you have proved real votes for Tories in one red wall council by election are completely exceeding the three very latest MRP polls. So you have to concede at least some relevance not irrelevance.
PS am I the only one who says merp instead of M.R.P.
King Charles III is a pervert, as his adultery shows, he has no respect for women.
The King and I!
Bizarre moment MailOnline reporter trying out the skimpy dress that broke the internet is spotted by KING CHARLES as his royal car pulls up at traffic lights (and his face says it all!)
The Lancashire result is appalling for the Tory leadership.
Hunt and Sunak to go after May looking increasingly likely to me. I suspect Johnson will be back.
It wasn't appalling at all, the swing Labour got last night wouldn't even give Starmer a majority.
It was a bad result yes but certainly wasn't an appalling one and indeed an improvement on the swings to LAB Truss was getting in polls and even better for Rishi than some of the swings against Boris in by elections
Here I would believe the MRP. There is a ceiling effect on swing.
While the Tories are polling just a few percent lower than April 2019 in the fag end years of the May government, the difference is that Labour is polling much better. This points to a significant drubbing for the Tories in the May Locals.
The LDs are polling much lower than 2019 too though.
So while the Tories will lose seats to Labour they may even gain some from the LDs, especially as most of the seats up are in English shires where there are relatively fewer Labour v Tory contests and more Tory v LD contests than UK wide.
London and Wales don't have elections in May for example
Don't forget though that the number of LD seats is unrelated to the LD vote share, but very strongly inversely correlated to the Conservative vote share. In 1997 the LD vote dropped but they went from 20 to 46 seats because the Tories fell from 42% to 31% (not wildly different to a likely scenario if the Tories recover a bit by the GE).
Banks really do get money for old rope don't they. We've got several million Euro deposited with Barclays and it earns 0.9%. They just deposit it overnight with the ECB and earn 2.5%.
Banks really do get money for old rope don't they. We've got several million Euro deposited with Barclays and it earns 0.9%. They just deposit it overnight with the ECB and earn 2.5%.
An arbitrage of ~ €40/day/million.
And that is with the HIGH interest account !
I had Halifax telling my parents the other day that the 0.6% interest they offer on a savings account is very competitive.
King Charles III is a pervert, as his adultery shows, he has no respect for women.
The King and I!
Bizarre moment MailOnline reporter trying out the skimpy dress that broke the internet is spotted by KING CHARLES as his royal car pulls up at traffic lights (and his face says it all!)
The 10.5% swing in West Lancashire last night if repeated nationally would give a hung parliament, not a Labour majority, with the Tories still on 243 seats
That's actually a tiny wafer-thin Labour majority given Sinn Fein abstentionism. But in general you'd expect the opposition to underperform by-election swings.
The maximum possible swing gets smaller, the safer the Labour seat is.
Core vote means that the pool of potential switchers is even smaller.
How much of a swing *could* Labour get in Knowsley, given a hypothetical by-election?
This is true, but the counterweight to that is mid-term by-elections generally produce bigger swings than ensuing general elections, as LP noted. Though I wouldn't like to hazard a guess on the relative magnitude of the two effects.
Banks really do get money for old rope don't they. We've got several million Euro deposited with Barclays and it earns 0.9%. They just deposit it overnight with the ECB and earn 2.5%.
An arbitrage of ~ €40/day/million.
And that is with the HIGH interest account !
I had Halifax telling my parents the other day that the 0.6% interest they offer on a savings account is very competitive.
The personal market is actually OK - I'm getting 7% with my FD regular saver. It's the business side where they're making a killing.
If Direct deposits with a central bank were allowed...
Interesting that the threader only mentions two former PMs. There is a third still around.
Major? No he's retired. Thatcher? No, she's six feet under.
Oh, you're thinking of big necklace lady, aren't you? Whilst she is clearly the best of the bunch, chances of her coming back are approximately zero.
That would be to admit that the sugar frenzy of the last few years was a mistake, and the current Conservative generation can never do that.
Thatcher six feet under would still be a better PM than Truss.
As the years go by and we get one failed premiership after another it makes Mrs Thatcher's achievements seem more and more impressive.
She was undoubtedly one of the greatest figures the democratic world has ever produced.
Pass the sick bucket(s)
Yo malc
Havent been on for a while so catching up. Are you still working or have you retired yet ?
Hello Alan , Nice to see you on. I am still here , working from home. Getting paid lots and not tough for me and keeps me partially away from bad habits. Don't travel at all nowadays. How are you doing. @Alanbrooke
I wrapped up working at a basket case company just before Xmas. Owners told me it was a 12 month assignment but i was there 3 years. Had just about everything imaginable thrown at me in the period so time to lurk but not blog. Otherwise in good shape, wife retired two years ago and is glad she did so just making up my mind what to do next. Hows your other half ?
Banks really do get money for old rope don't they. We've got several million Euro deposited with Barclays and it earns 0.9%. They just deposit it overnight with the ECB and earn 2.5%.
An arbitrage of ~ €40/day/million.
And that is with the HIGH interest account !
I had Halifax telling my parents the other day that the 0.6% interest they offer on a savings account is very competitive.
The personal market is actually OK - I'm getting 7% with my FD regular saver. It's the business side where they're making a killing.
If Direct deposits with a central bank were allowed...
7% on 300 a month, the whole op grosses about £97 over a year. Marcus from the vampire squid is paying 2.8% on as much as you like.
Well they sure as hell didn’t do much research on him before the election.
Do you think he was nominated by the same guy who did Jared O'Mara?
I always try and avoid the more hyperbolic descriptions given to politicians - although I did have quite a bit to say about Corbyn being the leader of the Labour Party - I genuinely think that most of them have good, if misplaced, intentions, and like the concept of Parliamentary language that refers to elected Members as honourable people.
But then occasionally, someone like Santos or O’Mara makes it through, and I have to reconsider…
I'd like to meet the guy who put O'Mara's name forward and hear what he has to say for himself. In my book, he's more culpable than O'Mara himself who is plainly a deeply troubled individual.
It's all Theresa May's fault.
The rumour I have heard is that Hallam Labour Party believed Mrs May when she said she wouldn't hold a snap election.
In early 2017 I speculated on here that it was more likely the Tories take Hallam than Labour did.
Hallam is a Remain voting seat full of academics. The Tories never had a chance their even in early 2017, it was always going to be a LD v Labour battle now
As @tlg86 will tell you, he got 25/1 on Labour winning Hallam in April/May 2017.
From my spreadsheet:
Conservatives to win Sheffield Hallam | Ladbrokes | 16-1 | £5.00 Labour to win Sheffield Hallam | Ladbrokes | 25-1 | £3.00
The tip was to back the Tories, but for some reason I thought Labour were worth a punt too.
Yeah it was my tip to. back the Tories, I got the feeling something was up.
I think the Tories for Clegg from 2015 were getting much smaller in 2017.
I think, while the Tories were screwing the LibDems elsewhere in 2017, Cameron protected his mate Clegg in Sheffield Hallam in case he needed him for another coalition.
In the event he didn't. May didn't give a toss about Clegg so the local Tory protection of him was withdrawn and he lost to O'Mara by over 2,000 votes. What a humiliation for Clegg.
The Lancashire result is appalling for the Tory leadership.
Hunt and Sunak to go after May looking increasingly likely to me. I suspect Johnson will be back.
It wasn't appalling at all, the swing Labour got last night wouldn't even give Starmer a majority.
It was a bad result yes but certainly wasn't an appalling one and indeed an improvement on the swings to LAB Truss was getting in polls and even better for Rishi than some of the swings against Boris in by elections
Here I would believe the MRP. There is a ceiling effect on swing.
While the Tories are polling just a few percent lower than April 2019 in the fag end years of the May government, the difference is that Labour is polling much better. This points to a significant drubbing for the Tories in the May Locals.
The LDs are polling much lower than 2019 too though.
So while the Tories will lose seats to Labour they may even gain some from the LDs, especially as most of the seats up are in English shires where there are relatively fewer Labour v Tory contests and more Tory v LD contests than UK wide.
London and Wales don't have elections in May for example
Don't forget though that the number of LD seats is unrelated to the LD vote share, but very strongly inversely correlated to the Conservative vote share. In 1997 the LD vote dropped but they went from 20 to 46 seats because the Tories fell from 42% to 31% (not wildly different to a likely scenario if the Tories recover a bit by the GE).
LibDem activity pools into deep wells in some places and barely a dew in others. The coming election is a punishment beating for the Tories - people are going to vote tactically to beat them as hard as possible.
That means a national equivalent showing for the LDs of not a lot, but a stack of the 100 or so seats where we are in 2nd coming to us from the Tories. No point voting LibDem if you live in Burscough, but if you like in Guildford its a different matter.
King Charles III is a pervert, as his adultery shows, he has no respect for women.
The King and I!
Bizarre moment MailOnline reporter trying out the skimpy dress that broke the internet is spotted by KING CHARLES as his royal car pulls up at traffic lights (and his face says it all!)
King Charles III is a pervert, as his adultery shows, he has no respect for women.
The King and I!
Bizarre moment MailOnline reporter trying out the skimpy dress that broke the internet is spotted by KING CHARLES as his royal car pulls up at traffic lights (and his face says it all!)
Interesting that the threader only mentions two former PMs. There is a third still around.
Major? No he's retired. Thatcher? No, she's six feet under.
Oh, you're thinking of big necklace lady, aren't you? Whilst she is clearly the best of the bunch, chances of her coming back are approximately zero.
That would be to admit that the sugar frenzy of the last few years was a mistake, and the current Conservative generation can never do that.
Thatcher six feet under would still be a better PM than Truss.
As the years go by and we get one failed premiership after another it makes Mrs Thatcher's achievements seem more and more impressive.
She was undoubtedly one of the greatest figures the democratic world has ever produced.
Pass the sick bucket(s)
Yo malc
Havent been on for a while so catching up. Are you still working or have you retired yet ?
Hello Alan , Nice to see you on. I am still here , working from home. Getting paid lots and not tough for me and keeps me partially away from bad habits. Don't travel at all nowadays. How are you doing. @Alanbrooke
I wrapped up working at a basket case company just before Xmas. Owners told me it was a 12 month assignment but i was there 3 years. Had just about everything imaginable thrown at me in the period so time to lurk but not blog. Otherwise in good shape, wife retired two years ago and is glad she did so just making up my mind what to do next. Hows your other half ?
Alan, She is recovered as much as she will , lungs not great and her immune system not so great , gets every bug. She is frustrated she cannot exercise as much as she did but overall very good given it took 2 years to get over the worst. I still enjoy working and it is not hard for me , very very few left with experience I have nowadays. I would be wondering what to do after 6 months and would end up getting in trouble so will stick with it for now. No issue when you know you can go if you want. Imagine you will wnat to keep busy as well.
Yesterday I got a real feel why some people are so angry about partygate. We had a really easy lockdown. Yesterday we heard a horrific story from a friend we had lost contact with. It is not appropriate to post all the details here, but the long term isolation and loss of life involved without being able to see those dying and without those dying (a married couple) being able to see each other was heart breaking. I haven't heard a worse story.
The Conservatives are currently like an attractive young lady at the start of an adult film. You know she's going to be screwed, the only question is the manner of the occasion.
Both Johnson and Truss have an eye to the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party that will surely follow an election loss.
Sunak is oddly disconnected from it in a way. He will trudge on to defeat with the only realistic strategy in the circumstances of "don't scare the horses" economic credibility to avoid making the situation worse, coupled with some tired old sh1te about small boats and Brexit dividends to shore up the core. But it is hard to believe that's a strategy for turning round the supertanker, just running it aground at slightly lower speed to limit the damage.
I think Johnson and Truss are aware of that and are happy enough for Sunak to take on what is a fool's errand. They may talk the talk, but I doubt they seriously believe the next election can be salvaged - a longer game is at play.
What is most absurd about the Conservative party is that Truss has standing in it at all. She is hated and ridiculed by voters. So why does she have this platform?
She is hated and ridiculed by members.
She is also hated and ridiculed by MPs.
The only reason not to stand down at the next election is the brass neck that led her to think she would be a great Prime Minister first time around. She gets to perform that trick exactly once.
The reason Boris has not yet stood down is that as an MP he can better play the Ukraine card. Which he sees as a route to making squillions.
Sunak doesn't need to remotely worry about either of them.
It's amusing when people double down on Truss hate because they're embarrassed at backing the dismal decline manager. Humility is in very short supply when it comes to Rishi rampers.
The Conservatives are currently like an attractive young lady at the start of an adult film. You know she's going to be screwed, the only question is the manner of the occasion.
Might quibble with both the attractive and young components.
I'd have thought that the most striking thing about the West Lancashire result is that there's nothing whatsoever striking about it.
The thing that surprised me about the result is that there was a result. I didn't see any discussion about the by-election on here at all, that I can remember.
Oh dear. It would be a shame if NATO decided to take a good look at the Black Sea Fleet.
Why did they not shoot it down is the question. Time they gave Ukraine the kit to flatten their black sea fleet
Kalibr is small and flies very low. It's also very fast and was probably only in Romanian air space for a relatively short time so it's a challenging target.
Cynically, the Romanians would probably prefer it continued to its destination in Ukraine rather than shooting it down having the wreckage land on fuck knows what in Romania.
Surely comparisons with 1997 are not valid. It’s a BE. A 10% swing, albeit in a safe Lab seat, is hardly earth-shattering.
Completely in line with the polls and Britain Elects MRP. It does look valid to me.
Of course things can change with "events" but there is no guarantee that those "events" favour the government. It is very possible that they favour Starmer.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t the MRP for the GE, not the BE? People vote differently in BEs.
The Lancashire result is appalling for the Tory leadership.
Hunt and Sunak to go after May looking increasingly likely to me. I suspect Johnson will be back.
It wasn't appalling at all, the swing Labour got last night wouldn't even give Starmer a majority.
It was a bad result yes but certainly wasn't an appalling one and indeed an improvement on the swings to LAB Truss was getting in polls and even better for Rishi than some of the swings against Boris in by elections
Here I would believe the MRP. There is a ceiling effect on swing.
While the Tories are polling just a few percent lower than April 2019 in the fag end years of the May government, the difference is that Labour is polling much better. This points to a significant drubbing for the Tories in the May Locals.
The LDs are polling much lower than 2019 too though.
So while the Tories will lose seats to Labour they may even gain some from the LDs, especially as most of the seats up are in English shires where there are relatively fewer Labour v Tory contests and more Tory v LD contests than UK wide.
London and Wales don't have elections in May for example
The national share for the LibDems is very deceptive.
It would be better for the LibDems to get 50%+ share in just 50 seats, and 1% in the rest (a national share of just 5%) than a 20% share in every seat (a national share of 20% but no seats!).
In the 2019 General Election, the Greens got 3% share of votes and got just one seat - Brighton Pavillion. The SNP got just 4% share of the vote and yet got 48 seats - because their seats were all concentrated in Scotland. The national share is deceptive. Punters shouldn't be deceived by the LibDem national share.
King Charles III is a pervert, as his adultery shows, he has no respect for women.
The King and I!
Bizarre moment MailOnline reporter trying out the skimpy dress that broke the internet is spotted by KING CHARLES as his royal car pulls up at traffic lights (and his face says it all!)
Eh? I can't make out any kind of facial expression at all in that photo. Also, that dress is absolutely horrible and the poor woman looks freezing. What an utter non-story.
Interesting that the threader only mentions two former PMs. There is a third still around.
Major? No he's retired. Thatcher? No, she's six feet under.
Oh, you're thinking of big necklace lady, aren't you? Whilst she is clearly the best of the bunch, chances of her coming back are approximately zero.
That would be to admit that the sugar frenzy of the last few years was a mistake, and the current Conservative generation can never do that.
Thatcher six feet under would still be a better PM than Truss.
I wonder though if May might return to the cabinet at some point. She's a senior figure and unquestionably able. There might be an opening as say, leader of the House if Wallace moves on and Mordaunt returned to Defence.
Equally, she may not want to. She's on a nice earner outside Parliament making speeches, and that would have to go if she became a Minister again. And unlike Johnson she surely knows she has no chance of the leadership again unless she is a Grimond in a real, real crisis.
I think we can safely say she's not a Grimond!
But she would probably be willing to serve responsibly under someone else and isn't, as you say, after the top job, her leadership skills having been already found rather wanting.
I meant, Jo Grimond who returned as acting leader of the Liberals during the Thorpe affair.
Grimond was an inspirational figure who set the Liberals on the long path to recovery, and is still revered among many older members. His leadership was before my time - believe it or not, I was inspired to join by Thorpe - but I met many people during my time in the party who had joined because of Grimond, and later gone on to become leading councillors or MPs. Without someone like Grimond it's quite possible the party would still be stuck on 5% (and, yes, I anticipate that is setting you up for a witty reply).
There was a magnetism in Grimond's live presence that did not come over so well on the tv or in the press.
It is really quite hard to see Jeremy Thorpe's appeal now, though that was a thing at the time.
Touch of the Johnsons maybe? Bit of a 'character' who didn't appear to take things too seriously. People seem to like that.
Surely comparisons with 1997 are not valid. It’s a BE. A 10% swing, albeit in a safe Lab seat, is hardly earth-shattering.
Completely in line with the polls and Britain Elects MRP. It does look valid to me.
Of course things can change with "events" but there is no guarantee that those "events" favour the government. It is very possible that they favour Starmer.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t the MRP for the GE, not the BE? People vote differently in BEs.
Yes, the Britain Elects prediction was spot on, and based on the MRP linked to, mapped to the demographics of the constituency. Their prediction for the Chester by-election was near bang on too.
So, I interpret this as a validation of their model in real elections. With betting implications of course.
Aye. Giving locked up murderers and rapists a gun and told to go wild and nothing is off the table in Ukraine are finishing their tours of duty and going back to their home town.
King Charles III is a pervert, as his adultery shows, he has no respect for women.
The King and I!
Bizarre moment MailOnline reporter trying out the skimpy dress that broke the internet is spotted by KING CHARLES as his royal car pulls up at traffic lights (and his face says it all!)
Eh? I can't make out any kind of facial expression at all in that photo. Also, that dress is absolutely horrible and the poor woman looks freezing. What an utter non-story.
The third picture with the closest view looks like there's a small smile of the "I know I shouldn't, but I can't not" type.
It's "human has perfectly human response" which should be a non-story. But with the monarchy we don't often get to see the monarch being human in an unscripted way like this, so that will cause some level of interest.
I remember when the Trade figures were national headlines, but this seems to pass people by nowadays:
"The total annual trade in goods and services balance, excluding precious metals, widened by £85.3 billion to a deficit of £108.0 billion in 2022 when compared with 2021, driven by a 32.5% increase in import values."
King Charles III is a pervert, as his adultery shows, he has no respect for women.
The King and I!
Bizarre moment MailOnline reporter trying out the skimpy dress that broke the internet is spotted by KING CHARLES as his royal car pulls up at traffic lights (and his face says it all!)
Eh? I can't make out any kind of facial expression at all in that photo. Also, that dress is absolutely horrible and the poor woman looks freezing. What an utter non-story.
Not often I score one over you, OLB, but I do here - I didn't even click.
More personnel changes than 1980s Black Sabbath is not a good look for a party who wants to look like they are in government.
Saw this the other day.
Birmingham Ballet are commissioning a new piece choreographed to orchestral arrangements of Black Sabbath
It could be awesome!
That would indeed be awesome!
There’s been a number of classical arrangements of house music in recent years, aimed at an audience of 40-somethings who were ravers two or three decades ago. Wildly successful, and sold out on worldwide tours.
King Charles III is a pervert, as his adultery shows, he has no respect for women.
The King and I!
Bizarre moment MailOnline reporter trying out the skimpy dress that broke the internet is spotted by KING CHARLES as his royal car pulls up at traffic lights (and his face says it all!)
Eh? I can't make out any kind of facial expression at all in that photo. Also, that dress is absolutely horrible and the poor woman looks freezing. What an utter non-story.
Not often I score one over you, OLB, but I do here - I didn't even click.
Yesterday I got a real feel why some people are so angry about partygate. We had a really easy lockdown. Yesterday we heard a horrific story from a friend we had lost contact with. It is not appropriate to post all the details here, but the long term isolation and loss of life involved without being able to see those dying and without those dying (a married couple) being able to see each other was heart breaking. I haven't heard a worse story.
Indeed so, which is why the narrative of “parties” was so damaging. Irrespective of the actual details of the events in question, and definitely ignoring what the media set on bringing down the PM were up to themselves at the time.
The Lancashire result is appalling for the Tory leadership.
Hunt and Sunak to go after May looking increasingly likely to me. I suspect Johnson will be back.
It wasn't appalling at all, the swing Labour got last night wouldn't even give Starmer a majority.
It was a bad result yes but certainly wasn't an appalling one and indeed an improvement on the swings to LAB Truss was getting in polls and even better for Rishi than some of the swings against Boris in by elections
Here I would believe the MRP. There is a ceiling effect on swing.
While the Tories are polling just a few percent lower than April 2019 in the fag end years of the May government, the difference is that Labour is polling much better. This points to a significant drubbing for the Tories in the May Locals.
The LDs are polling much lower than 2019 too though.
So while the Tories will lose seats to Labour they may even gain some from the LDs, especially as most of the seats up are in English shires where there are relatively fewer Labour v Tory contests and more Tory v LD contests than UK wide.
London and Wales don't have elections in May for example
The national share for the LibDems is very deceptive.
It would be better for the LibDems to get 50%+ share in just 50 seats, and 1% in the rest (a national share of just 5%) than a 20% share in every seat (a national share of 20% but no seats!).
In the 2019 General Election, the Greens got 3% share of votes and got just one seat - Brighton Pavillion. The SNP got just 4% share of the vote and yet got 48 seats - because their seats were all concentrated in Scotland. The national share is deceptive. Punters shouldn't be deceived by the LibDem national share.
The LD poll rating is down about 4 or 5% from Spring 2019
Remember the LDs gained control of lots of southern Tory councils in May 2019 too and some of those LD administrations will be unpopular and the Tories could even get a protest vote there
There’s been a number of classical arrangements of house music in recent years, aimed at an audience of 40-somethings who were ravers two or three decades ago. Wildly successful, and sold out on worldwide tours.
Above and Beyond did some shows of 'acoustic' versions of their stuff and recorded them. Available on DVD or iTunes. Fabulous.
Aye. Giving locked up murderers and rapists a gun and told to go wild and nothing is off the table in Ukraine are finishing their tours of duty and going back to their home town.
What could possibly go wrong?
Numbers would help on this. How many have actually survived?
I've seen statements around 40-50k recruited and a 70% casualty rate in operations, but that well may be nothing realistic.
The Lancashire result is appalling for the Tory leadership.
Hunt and Sunak to go after May looking increasingly likely to me. I suspect Johnson will be back.
It wasn't appalling at all, the swing Labour got last night wouldn't even give Starmer a majority.
It was a bad result yes but certainly wasn't an appalling one and indeed an improvement on the swings to LAB Truss was getting in polls and even better for Rishi than some of the swings against Boris in by elections
Here I would believe the MRP. There is a ceiling effect on swing.
While the Tories are polling just a few percent lower than April 2019 in the fag end years of the May government, the difference is that Labour is polling much better. This points to a significant drubbing for the Tories in the May Locals.
The LDs are polling much lower than 2019 too though.
So while the Tories will lose seats to Labour they may even gain some from the LDs, especially as most of the seats up are in English shires where there are relatively fewer Labour v Tory contests and more Tory v LD contests than UK wide.
London and Wales don't have elections in May for example
The national share for the LibDems is very deceptive.
It would be better for the LibDems to get 50%+ share in just 50 seats, and 1% in the rest (a national share of just 5%) than a 20% share in every seat (a national share of 20% but no seats!).
In the 2019 General Election, the Greens got 3% share of votes and got just one seat - Brighton Pavillion. The SNP got just 4% share of the vote and yet got 48 seats - because their seats were all concentrated in Scotland. The national share is deceptive. Punters shouldn't be deceived by the LibDem national share.
While the national shares are deffo telling us a lot, FPTP with 3+ parties means that elections hinge on one question;
Are the parties of the centre left crosser with the Conservatives, or with each other?
See 1979-92, or 2015-9.
It doesn't even need formal pacts, voters work it out sufficiently for themselves.
Comments
Limited resources, etc.
Headline economic performance of zero
Real world economic performance of a lot worse than zero as inflation erodes spending power.
Tories want to be very careful before starting to crow about having avoided a recession. Most lived experiences are not rosy, and telling people that what they are experiencing is actually wrong is a stupid way to campaign.
But they will do it anyway. Knobcheese Banff and Buchan MP David Duguid has just issued his latest constituency leaflet. A section crowing about the successes of fishing post-Brexit. He says he is engaging with Fishing people - not trying very hard as we had newspaper stories from local fishing association bosses bemoaning how Brexit has been terrible and how they were used as "poster boys" by tossers like Duguid.
Constituency maps of various polls always seem to show Duguid narrowly keeping his seat. I question that - telling one of the big industries up here that they are wrong about their industry is destructo-stupid.
‘He’s really dangerous’: fear as Wagner convict soldiers return from Ukraine
Murderers and other hardened criminals among those recruited by Russian mercenary group in exchange for freedom
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/10/wagner-convict-soldiers-return-from-ukraine-russia-mercenary-group
While the Tories are polling just a few percent lower than April 2019 in the fag end years of the May government, the difference is that Labour is polling much better. This points to a significant drubbing for the Tories in the May Locals.
Conservatives to win Sheffield Hallam | Ladbrokes | 16-1 | £5.00
Labour to win Sheffield Hallam | Ladbrokes | 25-1 | £3.00
The tip was to back the Tories, but for some reason I thought Labour were worth a punt too.
I think the Tories for Clegg from 2015 were getting much smaller in 2017.
More personnel changes than 1980s Black Sabbath is not a good look for a party who wants to look like they are in government.
https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1623675485719875588?t=iBMH3rQ-BWXPY-XOYJ1GRA&s=19
The bill in question, was awfully close to what Nicola Sturgeon is in so much trouble for at the moment.
https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1623969021258244096
Havent been on for a while so catching up. Are you still working or have you retired yet ?
On basis that’s such an old MRP, Rishi wasn’t even PM, we’ve had 3 updates since then, Labour are just not getting real votes to match the new MRPs is the truth behind your spin Foxy.
(the one that has about 60 or so Tory MPs after next election, after HY adjusted its errors so no longer in third place).
You know on the pebble counting wiki page, MRP has its own sub section, so there is no excuse for you posting such tardiness 🧐
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Seat_predictions
The King and I!
Bizarre moment MailOnline reporter trying out the skimpy dress that broke the internet is spotted by KING CHARLES as his royal car pulls up at traffic lights (and his face says it all!)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-11733019/Moment-King-Charles-spots-MailOnline-reporter-skimpy-dress.html
Core vote means that the pool of potential switchers is even smaller.
How much of a swing *could* Labour get in Knowsley, given a hypothetical by-election?
naturally you would have looked the other way
Supplies to Zelensky yes, all out war with Putin, no
The theory would go that an above inflation settlement in large section of public sector employment would trigger wage claims elsewhere. And the ripple effects would make the inflation "wave" last longer.
You are Neville Chamberlain and I claim my £5.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/feb/10/stuart-broad-tips-ollie-pope-as-future-england-test-cricket-captain
Birmingham Ballet are commissioning a new piece choreographed to orchestral arrangements of Black Sabbath
It could be awesome!
One is that Labour aren't getting as much swing in real elections, and maybe not enough, full stop.
The other is that they're not piling up votes in safe seats, which may mean they're getting more where it counts.
As always, Need More Data.
So while the Tories will lose seats to Labour they may even gain some from the LDs, especially as most of the seats up are in English shires where there are relatively fewer Labour v Tory contests and more Tory v LD contests than UK wide.
London and Wales don't have elections in May for example
How are you doing. @Alanbrooke
So you have to concede at least some relevance not irrelevance.
PS am I the only one who says merp instead of M.R.P.
He won't stop with Ukraine if he wins.
They just deposit it overnight with the ECB and earn 2.5%.
An arbitrage of ~ €40/day/million.
And that is with the HIGH interest account !
If Direct deposits with a central bank were allowed...
I see Romania is increasing defence spending to 2.5% of GDP.
Korea looks to sell weapons to Romania following lucrative deal with Poland
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=345138
In the event he didn't. May didn't give a toss about Clegg so the local Tory protection of him was withdrawn and he lost to O'Mara by over 2,000 votes. What a humiliation for Clegg.
That means a national equivalent showing for the LDs of not a lot, but a stack of the 100 or so seats where we are in 2nd coming to us from the Tories. No point voting LibDem if you live in Burscough, but if you like in Guildford its a different matter.
Everyone else is in overcoats! They obvious thought she was doing the walk of shame after being out last night.
Really naff from the Mail.
I still enjoy working and it is not hard for me , very very few left with experience I have nowadays. I would be wondering what to do after 6 months and would end up getting in trouble so will stick with it for now. No issue when you know you can go if you want. Imagine you will wnat to keep busy as well.
But later. I’m busy now.
Football: forgot to post these yesterday: https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2023/02/everything-but-epl-9-february-2023.html
The Conservatives are currently like an attractive young lady at the start of an adult film. You know she's going to be screwed, the only question is the manner of the occasion.
Cynically, the Romanians would probably prefer it continued to its destination in Ukraine rather than shooting it down having the wreckage land on fuck knows what in Romania.
It would be better for the LibDems to get 50%+ share in just 50 seats, and 1% in the rest (a national share of just 5%) than a 20% share in every seat (a national share of 20% but no seats!).
In the 2019 General Election, the Greens got 3% share of votes and got just one seat - Brighton Pavillion.
The SNP got just 4% share of the vote and yet got 48 seats - because their seats were all concentrated in Scotland.
The national share is deceptive. Punters shouldn't be deceived by the LibDem national share.
So, I interpret this as a validation of their model in real elections. With betting implications of course.
Giving locked up murderers and rapists a gun and told to go wild and nothing is off the table in Ukraine are finishing their tours of duty and going back to their home town.
What could possibly go wrong?
It's "human has perfectly human response" which should be a non-story. But with the monarchy we don't often get to see the monarch being human in an unscripted way like this, so that will cause some level of interest.
"The total annual trade in goods and services balance, excluding precious metals, widened by £85.3 billion to a deficit of £108.0 billion in 2022 when compared with 2021, driven by a 32.5% increase in import values."
From the ONS today.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/december2022
There’s been a number of classical arrangements of house music in recent years, aimed at an audience of 40-somethings who were ravers two or three decades ago. Wildly successful, and sold out on worldwide tours.
Please play this in the church at my funeral, it’s called “For an Angel” after all. https://youtube.com/watch?v=gAKy_R1XUBI
Remember the LDs gained control of lots of southern Tory councils in May 2019 too and some of those LD administrations will be unpopular and the Tories could even get a protest vote there
I've seen statements around 40-50k recruited and a 70% casualty rate in operations, but that well may be nothing realistic.
Are the parties of the centre left crosser with the Conservatives, or with each other?
See 1979-92, or 2015-9.
It doesn't even need formal pacts, voters work it out sufficiently for themselves.