How does Sunak cope with both Truss and Johnson? – politicalbetting.com
How does Sunak cope with both Truss and Johnson? – politicalbetting.com
A huge problem for Sunak as he contemplates the way forward is that the previous two Tory leaders are still very active in the party and want to have an impact on the future
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If Tory MPs are resigned to losing in 2024 it becomes an exercise in damage limitation so they've got a better chance in 2029. Reinstalling Boris will mean they may well have to fight 2029 with him as leader -- better to rebuild with a new face post-GE defeat, surely?
That's a truly terrible by-election result for the tories. Labour just got a higher share than in the 1997 landslide General Election. This defending their own safe seat in a by-election!
As Sky News put it:
"This result wasn't just bad for the Tories, it was terrible. While they won't admit it, they know it was
Labour commanded a bigger vote share in this constituency than in Tony Blair's landslide general election victory in 1997 - and a trouncing in May's local elections would send many Tory MPs into a blind panic."
https://news.sky.com/story/west-lancashire-by-election-labour-hold-onto-its-seat-12807130
https://news.sky.com/story/senior-tories-were-prepared-for-the-worst-at-the-by-election-and-they-werent-far-wrong-12807217
As I keep suggesting, an outright Labour majority is extremely likely. The Conservatives are going to get trounced.
Britain Elects forecast was quite accurate in Chester I recall. This is their prediction for tonight in West Lancs. Sounds about right to me.
LAB: 63% (+11)
CON: 26% (-10)
REF: 5% (+5)
GRN: 4% (+2)
LDEM: 3% (-2)
via Britain Predicts
sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/02/conser…
Turns out to have been a very accurate prediction:
Result
LAB: 62.3% (+10.2)
CON: 25.4% (-10.9)
REF: 4.4% (+0.1)
LDEM: 4.1% (-0.8)
GRN: 2.9% (+0.5)
MRLP: 0.9% (+0.9)
Labour HOLD.
This is based on the same MRP that has 138 Tory MPs after the next GE and 424 Labour.
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/11/britain-predicts-who-would-win-election-held-today
Sunak is oddly disconnected from it in a way. He will trudge on to defeat with the only realistic strategy in the circumstances of "don't scare the horses" economic credibility to avoid making the situation worse, coupled with some tired old sh1te about small boats and Brexit dividends to shore up the core. But it is hard to believe that's a strategy for turning round the supertanker, just running it aground at slightly lower speed to limit the damage.
I think Johnson and Truss are aware of that and are happy enough for Sunak to take on what is a fool's errand. They may talk the talk, but I doubt they seriously believe the next election can be salvaged - a longer game is at play.
MRP is really good.
That tallies with my current forecast of tory seats in the 100-150 range.
I've never known such anger out there. They are in for an evisceration.
Result
LAB: 62.3% (+10.2)
CON: 25.4% (-10.9)
REF: 4.4% (+0.1)
LDEM: 4.1% (-0.8)
GRN: 2.9% (+0.5)
MRLP: 0.9% (+0.9)
Labour HOLD.
This is based on the same MRP that has 138 Tory MPs after the next GE and 424 Labour.
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/11/britain-predicts-who-would-win-election-held-today
You know, it really IS an appalling result for the tories. A rock solid safe Labour seat with a massive 'meh' factor and Labour still increased their share to higher than they got in the 1997 Tony Blair-inspired landslide.
Leaving aside (the very significant issues of) Johnson's behaviour, honesty and morality, remember back then that the most common moan heard from Conservatives about Johnson concerned the big-spending, north-investing nature of his administration coupled with concerns about specifics like HS2 and Net zero. And, in many quarters, about his lazy, incompetent, capricious approach to leadership and delivery.
To go back to all that would be bizarre, whether or not it comes with another helping of scandal-ridden leadership.
Besides, the sight of Johnson simply says "Covid parties" to many voters, and most of us want to put all that behind us now.
Result
LAB: 62.3% (+10.2)
CON: 25.4% (-10.9)
REF: 4.4% (+0.1)
LDEM: 4.1% (-0.8)
GRN: 2.9% (+0.5)
MRLP: 0.9% (+0.9)
Labour HOLD.
This is based on the same MRP that has 138 Tory MPs after the next GE and 424 Labour.
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/11/britain-predicts-who-would-win-election-held-today
How can we take any forecast seriously that gets the libdem - green order wrong?
How can we take any forecast seriously that gets the libdem - green order wrong?
It’s an under the radar yellow surge.
While the Tories do deserve a thrashing, I don't think such huge majorities make for good government. Too many bored and ambitious new government MPs, little chance of promotion and an ineffective rump opposition. That is before we get to the blank canvas of Starmerism too.
No growth in final quarter.
And Johnson ought to be pretty easy to neutralise by the Privileges Committee. Even if he does harbour dreams of hopping into Nadine's (Mid) Beds.
The noises won't help Rishi steer the ship, but neither of his undead predecessors can really take over.
Can they?
You think thatwill try Truss again? Really?
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/09/santos-charged-theft-2017-dog-breeders-00082091
Of course things can change with "events" but there is no guarantee that those "events" favour the government. It is very possible that they favour Starmer.
That tallies with my current forecast of tory seats in the 100-150 range.
I've never known such anger out there. They are in for an evisceration.
That would be my prediction right now but the scary thing is that at these levels of support it wouldn't take much movement in the polls for it to change by a 100 seats. It could be in the right direction of course and they might make it 250 but equally it could go the other other way and they'd be close to zero.
FPTP puts them on a cliff edge. Move in the wrong direction and it's over.
PS Btw, I'd like to meet some of the 25% who voted Conservative. What on earth would motivate you to go the ballot box and support this lot? Is there a zombie cult faction in the area?
She is also hated and ridiculed by MPs.
The only reason not to stand down at the next election is the brass neck that led her to think she would be a great Prime Minister first time around. She gets to perform that trick exactly once.
The reason Boris has not yet stood down is that as an MP he can better play the Ukraine card. Which he sees as a route to making squillions.
Sunak doesn't need to remotely worry about either of them.
It’s an under the radar yellow surge.
Refuk beating LibDems is worthy of note.
As with Norma Lamont's Green Shoots, Conservatives saying "we're not actually in recession" may well just annoy the public even more.
It feels more like 1992 or 2010 than 1997.
At least with Sunak there is a sense of things calming down, a sort of 'incompetence as usual'.
Close to zero GDP growth over 5 years' of this government won't exactly sound like a roaring success just because we are growing a bit in 2024 and inflation is back down.
Result
LAB: 62.3% (+10.2)
CON: 25.4% (-10.9)
REF: 4.4% (+0.1)
LDEM: 4.1% (-0.8)
GRN: 2.9% (+0.5)
MRLP: 0.9% (+0.9)
Labour HOLD.
This is based on the same MRP that has 138 Tory MPs after the next GE and 424 Labour.
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/11/britain-predicts-who-would-win-election-held-today
Notable overnight, again, was the Lib Dems outperforming the polls in all the by-elections they stood in. Couple of gains with huge swings in Cheltenham and Masham and Fountains, and the only party the Britain Predicts algorithm didn’t quite get right for West Lancs.
Encouraging for the May elections
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemsworth_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
The most negative interpretation I can put on it for Labour is that the result looks very similar to Hemsworth, so you can make a case for them achieving a 1997-style swing as a result at the next election, but they start so much further back than in 1997 that such a swing might only just be enough to take them to a wafer-thin majority, rather than to a huge landslide.
We could do with Matt Hancock receiving an offer he can't refuse out of politics and a by-election in West Suffolk. At the 1997 GE Labour were 1,867 votes behind. If they could win it at a by-election then a landslide looks on - particularly given the older demographic profile of the seat.
I still struggle to see an actual general election result that gets Labour beyond a very narrow majority, and think Labour winning most seats is still the most likely outcome, but that is not where we are currently. So, the question is: how do the Tories start clawing it back and when will the process begin?
Thatcher? No, she's six feet under.
Oh, you're thinking of big necklace lady, aren't you? Whilst she is clearly the best of the bunch, chances of her coming back are approximately zero.
That would be to admit that the sugar frenzy of the last few years was a mistake, and the current Conservative generation can never do that.
In order to win the next GE with Truss or Johnson the Conservatives need to dig deep to find the vein of 40% populism. Perhaps Lee Anderson has some ideas.
FPTP puts them on a cliff edge. Move in the wrong direction and it's over.
PS Btw, I'd like to meet some of the 25% who voted Conservative. What on earth would motivate you to go the ballot box and support this lot? Is there a zombie cult faction in the area?
MRP is good - better than a randomly sampled national poll - but it still reflects opinion now, not how people will feel when the GE arrives.
Now, that’s not to say Labour aren’t on course to form the next government, but I don’t think the by election results are nearly as good as what Blair was achieving in opposition.
I wonder though if May might return to the cabinet at some point. She's a senior figure and unquestionably able. There might be an opening as say, leader of the House if Wallace moves on and Mordaunt returned to Defence.
Equally, she may not want to. She's on a nice earner outside Parliament making speeches, and that would have to go if she became a Minister again. And unlike Johnson she surely knows she has no chance of the leadership again unless she is a Grimond in a real, real crisis.
But she would probably be willing to serve responsibly under someone else and isn't, as you say, after the top job, her leadership skills having been already found rather wanting.
Even though she would undoubtedly have been better than Johnson during the pandemic - she has a sense of duty so would have observed her own rules, would have been all over the detail and been better at those press conferences with the scientists, and wouldn't have had Johnson's reluctance to go down the route of restrictions that proved so fatal - literally - to many people back at the beginning of the crisis. And the vans driving around all over the country with posters telling us to stay indoors would have given us something to look at during the lockdown!
She was undoubtedly one of the greatest figures the democratic world has ever produced.
"You know, it really IS an appalling result for the tories. A rock solid safe Labour seat with a massive 'meh' factor and Labour still increased their share to higher than they got in the 1997 Tony Blair-inspired landslide."
Calm down, you sound like the 1992 Sheffield Rally. Caution should be applied.
Hunt and Sunak to go after May looking increasingly likely to me. I suspect Johnson will be back.
Again, I wasn't comparing her leadership, which clearly was not in the class of Grimond's(!) but possible circumstances where she might become PM again. There are not many, but Rishi Sunak having a dog shot might cover it...
"Best result ever" say SKS fans.
At the same time Labour received the f"ewest votes ever" in the Comstituency.
Of course mostly down to the lowest turnout ever as often happens in a by election.
My view is those who are shouting BEST EVER like my own MP are still missing the lack of enthusiasm for SKS but undoubted visceral hatred of the Tories may outweigh that.
GE 2024 lowest ever turnout??
https://vimeo.com/642311804
But then occasionally, someone like Santos or O’Mara makes it through, and I have to reconsider…
Calm down, you sound like the 1992 Sheffield Rally. Caution should be applied.
Labour vote up from 59% in 2017 to 62% last night.
Johnson has still to get past the committee of privileges. I suspect that will be the end of his political career.
That the Daily Mail went in with both feet - presumably because of some bat-shit notion that Boris could yet come back as leader - has much to answer for.
UK and Russia are currently the only two G20 economies below their pre-pandemic output level.
https://twitter.com/shjfrench/status/1623949191759233028/photo/1
Suella Braverman has watered down Rishi Sunak’s pledge to “stop the boats” after committing only to a “dramatic reduction” in the number of migrants crossing the Channel.
The home secretary refused to give a timeframe for achieving the target, one of the government’s five priorities.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/suella-braverman-rows-back-on-boat-pledge-zjmgs9fk7
It was a by election and people can't be arsed I presume.
Liz Truss budget blamed as repossessions double
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-truss-budget-blamed-as-repossessions-double-zjnmqr0jn
Given the latest Yougov puts the Tories on 24%, although the Tories may see losses, especially to Labour, the swing and number of seats and councils lost is likely to be much lower than in 2019 when the Tories lost 7% voteshare compared to the local elections in 2015 where they got 35%, over 1000 councillors and 44 councils
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
Useless as he is, Sunak was actually the best of a very poor field in last summers contest. One reason that the nation is such a mess is that Brexit has hollowed out what little talent there was in the party.
On a positive note, the economy is not in recession. Yay!
If he had put in place someone from the non headbanger wing then the headbangers would be going nuts and claiming that if someone “tough” like Suella had been HS then this would be solved.
By ensuring that someone who lives without a heart or soul has made the decision/come to that conclusion he has political cover on his right wing.
Labour vote up from 59% in 2017 to 62% last night.'
The 10.5% swing in West Lancashire last night if repeated nationally would give a hung parliament, not a Labour majority, with the Tories still on 243 seats
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=34.2&LAB=43.5&LIB=11&Reform=2&Green=2&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.5&SCOTLAB=29.5&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=0&SCOTGreen=0&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=43&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
It was a bad result yes but certainly wasn't an appalling one and indeed an improvement on the swings to LAB Truss was getting in polls and even better for Rishi than some of the swings against Boris in by elections
The "Goodness me, I'm a great one- nation Tory, I've organised and opened two new food banks in Cosham" is not necessarily the political win it might first appear, but certainly she is less dreadful than most of the alternative runners and riders.
Main difference in the slightly lower swing is that the Con vote share fall this time is only marginally bigger than the Labour vote share gain (<10%) where as in Chester Con lost 40% vote share more than Labour gained.
If not exactly a recovery, signs of Conservatives at least stemming the blood loss?
The rumour I have heard is that Hallam Labour Party believed Mrs May when she said she wouldn't hold a snap election.
In early 2017 I speculated on here that it was more likely the Tories take Hallam than Labour did.
Think of it as a complex series of waves interacting.