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BoJo a 9% betting chance to be CON leader at the election – politicalbetting.com

This is a betting market that I’ve not looked at before and it is very difficult to argue that the current odds are wrong.
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If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
If Sunak went under a bus, who would be favourite?
The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.
9% ?
Yes, 9% insane is about right
He's on the warpath but, remembering how childish he is, my view is that he just wants Sunak to have a hard time - and make sure he doesn't succeed - and doesn't care about anything else, whether policy or party.
However Sunak likely stays until the next general election, Johnson doesn't have the majority of Tory MPs behind him he needs to remove Sunak in a VONC
I'm a politics geek and I struggle to create a mental picture of him.
Or think of a notable thing he's done.
What went wrong?
b) He hates Rishi for being the first (second) big hitter to come out against him, and wants Rishi to fail;
c) He fears anyone following him who might show him up by clearing up any of his mess.
b) Possibly.
c) You think Rishi is clearing up messes? 'It's a view'
Let the man lose them an election at the helm. Break the spell. Otherwise we might get a Boris myth that all would have been fine if they just hadn’t axed him in the first place.
Mainstream Swiss politicians are now calling for the 96 mothballed Swiss Leopard 2 tanks to be sold for as little as one symbolic franc to Poland, Slovakia, and Czechia, replacing the tanks that their governments plan to send to Ukraine - Bloomberg
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1621193886445064192
I would add that it does so because its constitution means these matters are decided by the people - apparently most politicians want to take them in.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-64248542
But that, in itself, suggests other things are going terribly wrong somewhere. I'm sure @Cyclefree will be far more eloquent and informed than I could be on what and where.
Rishi has at least got them to 100 to 150 MPs, 250 MPs if you believe Deltapoll
All the best, Mike.
"TSE is in charge" are words to strike fear into the most sanguine.
One up on Al Haigh, though.
Words that should strike terror into the hearts of all UK politicians as they wonder what Black Swan is queued up in your absence...
* But new “stocktake” suggests enduring “hit” from shocks such as Brexit, pandemic, & energy shock.. with supply potential of the economy growing just 0.7% a year
Was 1.5% recently, 2.5% pre financial crisis…
Includes new analysis of quicker than expected trade hit from Brexit
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1621117277255999488
Convicted July 2022. Four and a half years later.
That alone tells a great deal about what's wrong with the criminal justice system.
Words that should strike terror into the hearts of all UK politicians as they wonder what Black Swan is queued up in your absence...
I notice Mike posted after close of trading, presumably to prevent scurrilous PB'ers selling ahead of the inevitable run on the stock market.
He doesn't appeal to core voters.
He doesn't enthuse members and activists.
He doesn't appeal to Brexit supporters.
He doesn't appeal to Remain supporters.
He seems to appeal to a small subset of PB posters, most of whom won't vote for him, who like the fact that he seems like their sort of PM.
But the Greenwood case is exceptional. He will have lost at least £1m in the last year and quite possibly lost the chance to go to a WC with England as well. It will be interesting to see what Man U do next.
Words that should strike terror into the hearts of all UK politicians as they wonder what Black Swan is queued up in your absence...
Like all sensible readers of PB I am doing an emergency audit of stocking levels in my fall out shelter.
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=9ucpfMuM&id=53CD3D6E27A094385A7D764996415C3A8F5255F8&thid=OIP.9ucpfMuMoY8R5sWnxTsbfAHaD4&mediaurl=https://d1ix0byejyn2u7.cloudfront.net/drive/images/uploads/headers/ws_cropper/26_0x160_1200x629_1200x630_bus-boris.jpg&cdnurl=https://th.bing.com/th/id/R.f6e7297ccb8ca18f11e6c5a7c53b1b7c?rik=%2bFVSjzpcQZZJdg&pid=ImgRaw&r=0&exph=630&expw=1200&q=Boris+Driving+a+bus&simid=607995489423347821&FORM=IRPRST&ck=D48AD8C53E8F72E53F70F38771193979&selectedIndex=0&idpp=overlayview&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0
The evidence is some Remainers have gone back to the Tories under Sunak, especially those who were voting LD. He has also gained a few voters lost to Labour. He also has improved the Tory rating in London, Scotland and the Bluewall.
Boris does better with Leavers than Rishi admittedly, with Sunak leaking more to RefUK
The post has never been vacant for so long before, at least not since 1944 when the info at Wikipedia starts to include the exact day of departure or appointment rather than just the year. Since then, it hasn't been vacant even for as long as a single day. Today is the 4th day since Zahawi left.
What's happening?
Sunak looks like a non-leader. That must be clear to every Tory in the Westminster bubble.
It was only a few months ago that the membership chose the nutter Liz Truss as their leader not because she was a nutter but because she wasn't Sunak.
Mordaunt gets a lot of people taking the mickey out of her, but I can imagine her as the next leader. She'd sweep up the "Help for Heroes" and Arrse.co.uk vote.
She can appear good under pressure. So could Johnson.
Truss, May, Cameron - not so much.
Hope all goes well…
Yes, I'm still bitter about that.
good luck to you and OGH.
Words that should strike terror into the hearts of all UK politicians as they wonder what Black Swan is queued up in your absence...
Like all sensible readers of PB I am doing an emergency audit of stocking levels in my fall out shelter.
There are suggestions that Russia is planning a big push for the anniversary of their first second third attack on Ukraine, on the 24th, and it will be *spectacular*. Is TSE in charge of the site then, and will the spectacular be the Russians revealing his latest footwear?
"Northern England may need to be a self-governing state to truly rise again – but is Starmer ready for that?"
Channelling Uhtred of Bebbanburg ... I bet that chap who founded the Northumberland Party but then went all Scottish Labour and then ScoTory is really cheesed off he didn't stick around longer.
Good luck to OGH.
I am not a mountain, either. I think it is reasonably well established that this CV is cis male.
What I really want is for the new leader to employ every bit of talent and experience in their cabinet and stop it being so factional. It is about the team a lot more than about the individual.
Yet another PB Not Happening Event, along with a worldwide house price crash to 20% of its value, the Bakerloo line shutting down, and Josias Jessop running 17 ultramarathons barefoot in the next four days.
So I will just wish you best of luck and success 💜
Being a Trantite though explains his lack of dash and verve though, a characteristic of Commoner Block residents.
I would normally wish you luck backstage but I don't know if you read there, so I'll do it here. Good luck for the op and I'm sure it'll turn out OK.
(*) Not a genuine offer.
There's always the bed baths to look forward to.
Thanks for the site.
It was an ether/oar decision.
In my more vindictive moments, I want a brain and in a jar arrangement like in the Roald Dahl story...