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BoJo a 9% betting chance to be CON leader at the election – politicalbetting.com

24

Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,941
    Omnium said:

    The Tories deserve extinction if they think of bringing back Truss

    Think and bringing back Truss are mutually exclusive.
    Zero chance of that, she couldn't even win most Tory MPs votes in summer 2022, let alone now.

    Neither she nor Boris have the MPs votes needed to remove Sunak by VONC before the next election
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    DavidL said:

    Mike said:

    Mike said: NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days.

    Best of luck Mike :+1:
    Mike said:

    TSE is in charge of the site.


    Words that should strike terror into the hearts of all UK politicians as they wonder what Black Swan is queued up in your absence...
    Like all sensible readers of PB I am doing an emergency audit of stocking levels in my fall out shelter.
    Very wise. I cannot stay long as I am at the checkout in Tesco having purchased all tinned goods in the food aisle. They should make bigger trolleys...
    Toilet rolls, don't forget the toilet rolls!
    Oh cr*p! :open_mouth:
    Shhhhh. Look at it another way. This is a chance for us to have a party on here. It can be open Mike night.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Even 9% is an over-estimate.

    If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

    That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.
    Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

    The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

    9% ?

    Yes, 9% insane is about right
    I don't know really. Johnson clearly wants to come back, but backed off from doing so when Truss imploded. Why?

    Reported at the time that there were enough Tory MPs who indicated that they simply wouldn't accept it to make it a non-runner. Couple that with some of his protégés clearly wanting a go at the top job themselves - such as Braverman - and I don't see a way back for Johnson.

    However, if I'm wrong, then it's also probably a way in which we get to an early election, so a bet on a 2023 election, or Starmer as PM at the end of the year, might be interesting bets that cover this scenario and a few others.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    ydoethur said:

    The Tories deserve extinction if they think of bringing back Truss

    I'm coming to the conclusion those seven last words are superfluous.
    In some cases, even extinction is generous, for extinction implies oblivion.

    In my more vindictive moments, I want a brain and in a jar arrangement like in the Roald Dahl story...
    The brain bit might be a flaw in that plan?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,394

    DavidL said:

    Mike said:

    Mike said: NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days.

    Best of luck Mike :+1:
    Mike said:

    TSE is in charge of the site.


    Words that should strike terror into the hearts of all UK politicians as they wonder what Black Swan is queued up in your absence...
    Like all sensible readers of PB I am doing an emergency audit of stocking levels in my fall out shelter.
    Very wise. I cannot stay long as I am at the checkout in Tesco having purchased all tinned goods in the food aisle. They should make bigger trolleys...
    Toilet rolls, don't forget the toilet rolls!
    Oh cr*p! :open_mouth:
    Shhhhh. Look at it another way. This is a chance for us to have a party on here. It can be open Mike night.
    You're wired tonight!
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    The Tories deserve extinction if they think of bringing back Truss

    Think and bringing back Truss are mutually exclusive.
    Zero chance of that, she couldn't even win most Tory MPs votes in summer 2022, let alone now.

    Neither she nor Boris have the MPs votes needed to remove Sunak by VONC before the next election
    Ah - the “back Truss” WhatsApp group is back. MPs are firing up the “pro Truss” growth plan again

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,765
    Back to the future Tory style

    Boris;
    Popular - whatever his faults he has a way to just get the tone right and win votes
    Smart - clearly not his attire, but he does have a good depth of knowledge, and that's not to be underestimated
    Lies- nobody should trust him
    Dodgy - it's far from clear that he hasn't engaged in some dubious dealings

    Truss
    Economics - right policy, but its not a cut out from a cereal box
    Insane - No more needs to be said
    Insane - really

    IDS
    Better than Truss - but everyone is
    Less dodgy than Boris - everyone is too
    Enthusiatic - he does this well, although it's an odd solo performance

    May
    Tall - this might help with Macron and Putin
    Better than all the above - tick
    Made one excellent speech - tick

    Cameron
    Wilderness years - tick
    MP - alas no


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Even 9% is an over-estimate.

    If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

    That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.
    Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

    The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

    9% ?

    Yes, 9% insane is about right
    I don't know really. Johnson clearly wants to come back, but backed off from doing so when Truss imploded. Why?

    Reported at the time that there were enough Tory MPs who indicated that they simply wouldn't accept it to make it a non-runner. Couple that with some of his protégés clearly wanting a go at the top job themselves - such as Braverman - and I don't see a way back for Johnson.

    However, if I'm wrong, then it's also probably a way in which we get to an early election, so a bet on a 2023 election, or Starmer as PM at the end of the year, might be interesting bets that cover this scenario and a few others.
    He was made an offer that he couldn’t refuse
  • https://twitter.com/implausibleblog/status/1621162191792803840

    Boris Johnson says Ukraine should join the EU 🫠

    How utterly pathetic this toad is
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    edited February 2023

    https://twitter.com/implausibleblog/status/1621162191792803840

    Boris Johnson says Ukraine should join the EU 🫠

    How utterly pathetic this toad is

    When all this mess is over, I hope Ukraine is in a position where they can meet the AQ and join the EU, if they democratically decide to do so.

    Do you disagree? If not, why is he a pathetic toad?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    The Tories deserve extinction if they think of bringing back Truss

    On the contrary. She is the best and brightest future for her party and her country. Soon we will see how we have misunderestimated her. Indeed I don’t see a tilt at the White House as being out of the question. If anyone can persuade them to change their constitution, she can.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    ydoethur said:

    NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

    Best wishes Mike.

    There's always the bed baths to look forward to.
    Last time I had surgery the anesthesiologist gave me choice of gas or boat paddle...
    It was an ether/oar decision.
    The second was no laughing matter.
    My anaesthetist told me I only needed a local anaesthetic. I reported him to the GMC - frankly it doesn’t matter where the anaesthetic comes from. I welcome anaesthesia from all over the world.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    https://twitter.com/implausibleblog/status/1621162191792803840

    Boris Johnson says Ukraine should join the EU 🫠

    How utterly pathetic this toad is

    Maybe he could run for President after Zelensky on a platform of taking them out again?
  • DJ41aDJ41a Posts: 174

    https://twitter.com/implausibleblog/status/1621162191792803840

    Boris Johnson says Ukraine should join the EU 🫠

    With the euro as their currency and a double helping of freedom of movement - FOM all the way from Kiev to Calais, where a statue to the great Churchillian and former mayor of London should be installed, visible in fine weather from the Kent coast.
  • I'm at Waterloo again.

    Think I need the toilet..
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Laughable stories about a handful of Tory boroughs spending £££ on “fighting” the Ulez extension.

    The Ulez works. It’s Khan’s flagship policy and the extension will happen. Londoners need cleaner air.
  • I'm at Waterloo again.

    Think I need the toilet..

    The history book on the shelf,
    Is always repeating itself.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717

    I'm at Waterloo again.

    Think I need the toilet..

    The history book on the shelf,
    Is always repeating itself.
    Presumably as farce this time

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    dixiedean said:

    https://twitter.com/implausibleblog/status/1621162191792803840

    Boris Johnson says Ukraine should join the EU 🫠

    How utterly pathetic this toad is

    Maybe he could run for President after Zelensky on a platform of taking them out again?
    "According to Chapter V, Article 103 of the Constitution, to be elected president a candidate must be a Ukrainian citizen who has attained the age of 35, has the right to vote, and has resided in the country for the past 10 years[27] and has full command of the Ukrainian state language."

    I'm sure the Ukrainians would grant Johnson citizenship, and I think he's relatively gifted with languages, but the other qualifications might be a stretch. We all know Johnson has the mental age of a randy teenager.
  • Just catching up on the thread.

    Best wishes for tomorrow @MikeSmithson
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    I'm at Waterloo again.

    Think I need the toilet..

    The pub in the corner
  • Good luck and a speedy recovery.
  • DougSeal said:

    ydoethur said:

    NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

    Best wishes Mike.

    There's always the bed baths to look forward to.
    Last time I had surgery the anesthesiologist gave me choice of gas or boat paddle...
    It was an ether/oar decision.
    The second was no laughing matter.
    My anaesthetist told me I only needed a local anaesthetic. I reported him to the GMC - frankly it doesn’t matter where the anaesthetic comes from. I welcome anaesthesia from all over the world.
    For a minute, I thought I was reading a LuckyGuy post ;)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    DougSeal said:

    The Tories deserve extinction if they think of bringing back Truss

    On the contrary. She is the best and brightest future for her party and her country. Soon we will see how we have misunderestimated her. Indeed I don’t see a tilt at the White House as being out of the question. If anyone can persuade them to change their constitution, she can.
    President of the US.

    Secretary General of the UN.

    Chairwoman of Paris St Germain Football Club.

    Queen of the known universe is too lowly a calling.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Why does Casino think anyone wants to know about his bowels?
  • DJ41aDJ41a Posts: 174
    edited February 2023

    https://twitter.com/implausibleblog/status/1621162191792803840

    Boris Johnson says Ukraine should join the EU 🫠

    How utterly pathetic this toad is

    When all this mess is over, I hope Ukraine is in a position where they can meet the AQ and join the EU, if they democratically decide to do so.

    Do you disagree?
    That's not what Johnson said, though. He said Ukraine should join the EU.
    Last year, he said Ukraine should join Britain in an alternative body to the EU.
    Also last year, Putin said he had nothing against Ukraine joining the EU.
    Funny old world.
    What's next? Will Putin complete the square and say Ukraine should join Britain in an alternative to the EU?

    What is Johnson playing at?
    For that matter, what has Kolomoisky been playing at recently?
    I don't know which oligarchs in Ukraine Johnson is keenest on, but there will be an answer to that question.
    If some of the oligarchs in Ukraine are getting their collars felt right now, who knows, maybe some soon will in London too. (About f***ing time.) If I were an oligarch with large investments in Ukraine, living in London at the moment and scared of being arrested or having assets in Britain frozen, I'd be wanting to make a nice big donation to a political party.




  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Brother Gary has not had the best few weeks...

    https://twitter.com/GNev2/status/1621199334044798978


    Gary Neville
    @GNev2
    I liked a tweet relating to the Mason Greenwood news this afternoon from Nazir Afzal. ( the former director of public prosecutions ). This like is being misinterpreted. It was a clumsy like as I obviously condemn any violence against women.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Boris will say anything for a bit of media.
    It is probably in Britain’s best strategic interests at this juncture for Ukraine not to join NATO, nor the EU.
  • DavidL said:

    Mike said:

    Mike said: NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days.

    Best of luck Mike :+1:
    Mike said:

    TSE is in charge of the site.


    Words that should strike terror into the hearts of all UK politicians as they wonder what Black Swan is queued up in your absence...
    Like all sensible readers of PB I am doing an emergency audit of stocking levels in my fall out shelter.
    Very wise. I cannot stay long as I am at the checkout in Tesco having purchased all tinned goods in the food aisle. They should make bigger trolleys...
    Toilet rolls, don't forget the toilet rolls!
    Oh cr*p! :open_mouth:
    Shhhhh. Look at it another way. This is a chance for us to have a party on here. It can be open Mike night.
    Like every day on PB? :D

    After the first dozen posts, it does not matter what the header is ;)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    If you want to be affected by dust, watch the following:
    https://twitter.com/SlavaUk30722777/status/1621069794387832834
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361

    Why does Casino think anyone wants to know about his bowels?

    I fear it is a comment on what he thinks of the contributions of other posters.
  • Why does Casino think anyone wants to know about his bowels?

    I fear it is a comment on what he thinks of the contributions of other posters.
    You might think that, I couldn't possibly comment.
  • Good luck and a speedy recovery.

    Thanks, very kind xxx
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    Evening all :)

    The question is of course whether there is any alternative Conservative MP who, were they to become leader, would transform the Party's fortunes and erode the 17-20% swings to Labour in England.

    I don't see one and there's no polling evidence to suggest anyone else would make a difference.

    Sunak therefore stays and we'll see if the Conservative Parliamentary Party absorbs the valuable lesson if you don't hang together you'll all hang separately.

    As for who follows Sunak, in the event of a sizeable defeat, say reducing the Parliamentary Party to 120-140 seats, some of the leading possibles will have lost their seats. Barclay, Badenoch and Braverman are safe from even the most extreme defeat so the three"B"s will all have a chance to appeal to the rump.

    It's probably a 10-15 year project to take the party back to power in all honesty - do any of them want to be LOTO for that long? One possibility is Barclay begins the journey back and at some point Badenoch and Braverman will contest the leadership.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Labour’s proposal to favour “black owned businesses” is highly regrettable.

    In my experience it simply creates a special class of grifters, with no actual impact on the structural inequality of black people.

    The Liberal Democrats (remember them?) ought to be vocally against this.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717

    Boris will say anything for a bit of media.
    It is probably in Britain’s best strategic interests at this juncture for Ukraine not to join NATO, nor the EU.

    How about the Commonwealth. Would that be in Britain's strategic interests?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361

    Boris will say anything for a bit of media.
    It is probably in Britain’s best strategic interests at this juncture for Ukraine not to join NATO, nor the EU.

    Why do you say that? I would think that Ukraine in NATO would be a big strategic win for Britain. It's likely that we'd then feel able to leave the defence of the Russian land border to them and Poland, freeing up British forces to act as an adjunct to the US in the Pacific.

    On EU membership, a Ukraine in the EU is likely to receive more EU funding for reconstruction and economic development. Even with Brexit barriers to trade that creates a larger market for potential British trade.
  • Labour’s proposal to favour “black owned businesses” is highly regrettable.

    In my experience it simply creates a special class of grifters, with no actual impact on the structural inequality of black people.

    The Liberal Democrats (remember them?) ought to be vocally against this.

    Welcome to the reality of a Labour government.

    Wavering Tories who are tempted by this should take note of the signs of what's coming.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    geoffw said:

    Boris will say anything for a bit of media.
    It is probably in Britain’s best strategic interests at this juncture for Ukraine not to join NATO, nor the EU.

    How about the Commonwealth. Would that be in Britain's strategic interests?
    Yes.

    It would be in Britain’s interests for Ukraine to:

    join the Commonwealth
    join the wider European community proposed by Macron
    Re-confirm security guarantees from Western powers (but not full NATO membership).
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459

    Labour’s proposal to favour “black owned businesses” is highly regrettable.

    In my experience it simply creates a special class of grifters, with no actual impact on the structural inequality of black people.

    The Liberal Democrats (remember them?) ought to be vocally against this.

    Do you have a link to the details of this policy?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Boris will say anything for a bit of media.
    It is probably in Britain’s best strategic interests at this juncture for Ukraine not to join NATO, nor the EU.

    Why do you say that? I would think that Ukraine in NATO would be a big strategic win for Britain. It's likely that we'd then feel able to leave the defence of the Russian land border to them and Poland, freeing up British forces to act as an adjunct to the US in the Pacific.

    On EU membership, a Ukraine in the EU is likely to receive more EU funding for reconstruction and economic development. Even with Brexit barriers to trade that creates a larger market for potential British trade.
    Long term we actually don’t want a permanent defence against Russia, but rather to cajole Russia closer to the West. Ukrainian NATO membership would be standing sore.

    Britain should want to bring flesh and meaning to Macron’s proposed partnership, and Ukraine’s membership brings that. At present it is too corrupt and poor for full membership anyway.
  • There is nobody that can erode a 17 point lead they say.

    Keir Starmer did.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    DJ41a said:

    https://twitter.com/implausibleblog/status/1621162191792803840

    Boris Johnson says Ukraine should join the EU 🫠

    How utterly pathetic this toad is

    When all this mess is over, I hope Ukraine is in a position where they can meet the AQ and join the EU, if they democratically decide to do so.

    Do you disagree?
    That's not what Johnson said, though. He said Ukraine should join the EU.
    Last year, he said Ukraine should join Britain in an alternative body to the EU.
    Also last year, Putin said he had nothing against Ukraine joining the EU.
    Funny old world.
    What's next? Will Putin complete the square and say Ukraine should join Britain in an alternative to the EU?

    What is Johnson playing at?
    For that matter, what has Kolomoisky been playing at recently?
    I don't know which oligarchs in Ukraine Johnson is keenest on, but there will be an answer to that question.
    If some of the oligarchs in Ukraine are getting their collars felt right now, who knows, maybe some soon will in London too. (About f***ing time.) If I were an oligarch with large investments in Ukraine, living in London at the moment and scared of being arrested or having assets in Britain frozen, I'd be wanting to make a nice big donation to a political party.
    Do you have links to the relevant quotes, please?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361

    There is nobody that can erode a 17 point lead they say.

    Keir Starmer did.

    How? By adulterating Johnson and Truss' tea with psychotropic substances?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Labour’s proposal to favour “black owned businesses” is highly regrettable.

    In my experience it simply creates a special class of grifters, with no actual impact on the structural inequality of black people.

    The Liberal Democrats (remember them?) ought to be vocally against this.

    Do you have a link to the details of this policy?
    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/labour-hopes-to-ensure-black-led-firms-access-lucrative-government-contracts
  • It is unusual for a working peer to be called as an expert witness, and it was not clear whether Lord Falconer was there as a KC, a previous minister or a current Labour peer. He was apparently invited because he wrote a Twitter thread…..

    What was clear throughout Charlie Falconer’s testimony was that he was describing a system of law that simply does not exist…

    Going beyond misrepresenting the law, Lord Falconer stated that “most people” accept that the Scottish GRR Bill is a sensible change. He offered no evidence, and he is simply wrong about this.


    https://sex-matters.org/posts/updates/charlie-falconers-testimony/
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    I am also, I think, against “mandatory race wage gap reporting”.

    I don’t want businesses marking down what race I am, nor that of my colleagues thanks.
    This stuff is pernicious.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361

    Boris will say anything for a bit of media.
    It is probably in Britain’s best strategic interests at this juncture for Ukraine not to join NATO, nor the EU.

    Why do you say that? I would think that Ukraine in NATO would be a big strategic win for Britain. It's likely that we'd then feel able to leave the defence of the Russian land border to them and Poland, freeing up British forces to act as an adjunct to the US in the Pacific.

    On EU membership, a Ukraine in the EU is likely to receive more EU funding for reconstruction and economic development. Even with Brexit barriers to trade that creates a larger market for potential British trade.
    Long term we actually don’t want a permanent defence against Russia, but rather to cajole Russia closer to the West. Ukrainian NATO membership would be standing sore.

    Britain should want to bring flesh and meaning to Macron’s proposed partnership, and Ukraine’s membership brings that. At present it is too corrupt and poor for full membership anyway.
    It's a mistake to think that we can influence Russia in such a way. We should be ready to respond positively to positive action from them, but thinking that we can cajole them in such a way has left us open to being manipulated by them.

    We have to wait until they are interested in a positive relationship with us, and that can't happen if we are still conceding that countries that border Russia don't have full sovereign independence from Russia. That was a principle supposedly established in 1648, but it's still a lesson Russia needs to learn.
  • I am also, I think, against “mandatory race wage gap reporting”.

    I don’t want businesses marking down what race I am, nor that of my colleagues thanks.
    This stuff is pernicious.

    I totally agree.

    Also, although I am not one, I wish the Liberal Democrats stood for the principles you rightly assert that they should do.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    DougSeal said:

    The Tories deserve extinction if they think of bringing back Truss

    On the contrary. She is the best and brightest future for her party and her country. Soon we will see how we have misunderestimated her. Indeed I don’t see a tilt at the White House as being out of the question. If anyone can persuade them to change their constitution, she can.
    President of the US.

    Secretary General of the UN.

    Chairwoman of Paris St Germain Football Club.

    Queen of the known universe is too lowly a calling.
    Perfect partner for George Santos.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459

    There is nobody that can erode a 17 point lead they say.

    Keir Starmer did.

    Starmer isn't a genius; he just isn't a whopper either.

    That concludes my Ted Talk.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited February 2023

    Boris will say anything for a bit of media.
    It is probably in Britain’s best strategic interests at this juncture for Ukraine not to join NATO, nor the EU.

    Why do you say that? I would think that Ukraine in NATO would be a big strategic win for Britain. It's likely that we'd then feel able to leave the defence of the Russian land border to them and Poland, freeing up British forces to act as an adjunct to the US in the Pacific.

    On EU membership, a Ukraine in the EU is likely to receive more EU funding for reconstruction and economic development. Even with Brexit barriers to trade that creates a larger market for potential British trade.
    Long term we actually don’t want a permanent defence against Russia, but rather to cajole Russia closer to the West. Ukrainian NATO membership would be standing sore.

    Britain should want to bring flesh and meaning to Macron’s proposed partnership, and Ukraine’s membership brings that. At present it is too corrupt and poor for full membership anyway.
    It's a mistake to think that we can influence Russia in such a way. We should be ready to respond positively to positive action from them, but thinking that we can cajole them in such a way has left us open to being manipulated by them.

    We have to wait until they are interested in a positive relationship with us, and that can't happen if we are still conceding that countries that border Russia don't have full sovereign independence from Russia. That was a principle supposedly established in 1648, but it's still a lesson Russia needs to learn.
    I accept all that but let’s just understand the realpolitik of NATO membership, and the accompanying commitments.

    Also, we must concede that the key geopolitical competition is between the West and China. I actually think Biden is going too far with his tech blocking policies, but I so no reason to keep pushing Russia ever closer into Chinese arms.

    I accept the above doesn’t naturally apply to today’s Russia, but I am taking post-war.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,871

    Boris will say anything for a bit of media.
    It is probably in Britain’s best strategic interests at this juncture for Ukraine not to join NATO, nor the EU.

    Why do you say that? I would think that Ukraine in NATO would be a big strategic win for Britain. It's likely that we'd then feel able to leave the defence of the Russian land border to them and Poland, freeing up British forces to act as an adjunct to the US in the Pacific.

    On EU membership, a Ukraine in the EU is likely to receive more EU funding for reconstruction and economic development. Even with Brexit barriers to trade that creates a larger market for potential British trade.
    Long term we actually don’t want a permanent defence against Russia, but rather to cajole Russia closer to the West. Ukrainian NATO membership would be standing sore.

    Britain should want to bring flesh and meaning to Macron’s proposed partnership, and Ukraine’s membership brings that. At present it is too corrupt and poor for full membership anyway.
    Ermm long time we need to wipe out russia as an idea, it will not reform to a state that is confident when staying within its boundaries and will always claim other states belong to them.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459

    Labour’s proposal to favour “black owned businesses” is highly regrettable.

    In my experience it simply creates a special class of grifters, with no actual impact on the structural inequality of black people.

    The Liberal Democrats (remember them?) ought to be vocally against this.

    Do you have a link to the details of this policy?
    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/labour-hopes-to-ensure-black-led-firms-access-lucrative-government-contracts
    Thanks. I guess the crux of this matter is what "more support" actually means.

    Regardless, this is London bubble stuff.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592

    I am also, I think, against “mandatory race wage gap reporting”.

    I don’t want businesses marking down what race I am, nor that of my colleagues thanks.
    This stuff is pernicious.

    I'm never quite sure what category to put our son under, as he's half Turkish. Usually we opt for 'white other' if that's available. Goodness knows why that should matter.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,871
    Pagan2 said:

    Boris will say anything for a bit of media.
    It is probably in Britain’s best strategic interests at this juncture for Ukraine not to join NATO, nor the EU.

    Why do you say that? I would think that Ukraine in NATO would be a big strategic win for Britain. It's likely that we'd then feel able to leave the defence of the Russian land border to them and Poland, freeing up British forces to act as an adjunct to the US in the Pacific.

    On EU membership, a Ukraine in the EU is likely to receive more EU funding for reconstruction and economic development. Even with Brexit barriers to trade that creates a larger market for potential British trade.
    Long term we actually don’t want a permanent defence against Russia, but rather to cajole Russia closer to the West. Ukrainian NATO membership would be standing sore.

    Britain should want to bring flesh and meaning to Macron’s proposed partnership, and Ukraine’s membership brings that. At present it is too corrupt and poor for full membership anyway.
    Ermm long time we need to wipe out russia as an idea, it will not reform to a state that is confident when staying within its boundaries and will always claim other states belong to them.
    By russia I mean the idea of a russian empire btw not the country itself
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    I am also, I think, against “mandatory race wage gap reporting”.

    I don’t want businesses marking down what race I am, nor that of my colleagues thanks.
    This stuff is pernicious.

    I totally agree.

    Also, although I am not one, I wish the Liberal Democrats stood for the principles you rightly assert that they should do.
    It may, indeed, be left to Tories, to assert that we are more than simply prisoners of our ethnicity.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459

    I am also, I think, against “mandatory race wage gap reporting”.

    I don’t want businesses marking down what race I am, nor that of my colleagues thanks.
    This stuff is pernicious.

    I'm never quite sure what category to put our son under, as he's half Turkish. Usually we opt for 'white other' if that's available. Goodness knows why that should matter.
    When I was younger I used to go for "any other white background" but now I just tick "white British" because I can't be arsed.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Labour’s proposal to favour “black owned businesses” is highly regrettable.

    In my experience it simply creates a special class of grifters, with no actual impact on the structural inequality of black people.

    The Liberal Democrats (remember them?) ought to be vocally against this.

    Do you have a link to the details of this policy?
    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/labour-hopes-to-ensure-black-led-firms-access-lucrative-government-contracts
    Thanks. I guess the crux of this matter is what "more support" actually means.

    Regardless, this is London bubble stuff.
    Is it London bubble stuff?
    Maybe. It won’t deter me at present for voting left, and it remains a proposal only at this stage.

    Neverthless, it saps confidence in Labour’s ability to look beyond its own client vote. Indeed I would argue that Labour’s biggest risk is not capture by unions but capture by selfish identity groups.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    I am also, I think, against “mandatory race wage gap reporting”.

    I don’t want businesses marking down what race I am, nor that of my colleagues thanks.
    This stuff is pernicious.

    I'm never quite sure what category to put our son under, as he's half Turkish. Usually we opt for 'white other' if that's available. Goodness knows why that should matter.
    Strictly speaking I am not 100% white myself.
    In certain societies I would be considered mixed race.

    It is nobody’s business but my own.
  • I am also, I think, against “mandatory race wage gap reporting”.

    I don’t want businesses marking down what race I am, nor that of my colleagues thanks.
    This stuff is pernicious.

    I totally agree.

    Also, although I am not one, I wish the Liberal Democrats stood for the principles you rightly assert that they should do.
    It may, indeed, be left to Tories, to assert that we are more than simply prisoners of our ethnicity.
    Which, strategically, deserts the field and leaves a massive open goal for the Tories alone to score in.

    You'd have thought this would be clear to more than just Blair, who is as smart on this sort of stuff as ever.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    There is nobody that can erode a 17 point lead they say.

    Keir Starmer did.

    Did he? Or did the Johnson government collapse as partygate played out and the public woke up to how venal and dishonest Johnson was, combined with an economic shock not seen these last 15 years.
    Starmer has done a good job making Labour electable, but just as you insist Johnson’s 2019 win was mainly down to Corbyn, Starmers current lead is mainly down to the economic situation we are in after 13 years of Tory rule.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,871

    I am also, I think, against “mandatory race wage gap reporting”.

    I don’t want businesses marking down what race I am, nor that of my colleagues thanks.
    This stuff is pernicious.

    I'm never quite sure what category to put our son under, as he's half Turkish. Usually we opt for 'white other' if that's available. Goodness knows why that should matter.
    Strictly speaking I am not 100% white myself.
    In certain societies I would be considered mixed race.

    It is nobody’s business but my own.
    There are few truebloods left in the world and most of them have no idea they are
  • Boris will say anything for a bit of media.
    It is probably in Britain’s best strategic interests at this juncture for Ukraine not to join NATO, nor the EU.

    Why do you say that? I would think that Ukraine in NATO would be a big strategic win for Britain. It's likely that we'd then feel able to leave the defence of the Russian land border to them and Poland, freeing up British forces to act as an adjunct to the US in the Pacific.

    On EU membership, a Ukraine in the EU is likely to receive more EU funding for reconstruction and economic development. Even with Brexit barriers to trade that creates a larger market for potential British trade.
    Long term we actually don’t want a permanent defence against Russia, but rather to cajole Russia closer to the West. Ukrainian NATO membership would be standing sore.

    Britain should want to bring flesh and meaning to Macron’s proposed partnership, and Ukraine’s membership brings that. At present it is too corrupt and poor for full membership anyway.
    The gaps in my knowledge about Russia are vast but the impression I get from everyone else both here and in the news generally is that there is no alternative to a permanent defence against Russia until the country itself has undergone fundamental reform and has become a proper functioning democracy - not just in terms of basic elections but the independence of all the other institutions and estates that go to make a functioning democracy.

    Which is perhaps a long winded way of saying that the issue, as far as needing a long term defence against Russia is concerned, is out of our hands. It is not we who have to change but Russia. And I don't see that happening any time soon.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567
    Quebec’s groundhog Fred la Marmotte has died.

    It was somewhat of a surprise - they had a whole event leading up to his prediction only for his death to be announced.

    No doubt Leon will say this foretells nuclear disaster....
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361

    Boris will say anything for a bit of media.
    It is probably in Britain’s best strategic interests at this juncture for Ukraine not to join NATO, nor the EU.

    Why do you say that? I would think that Ukraine in NATO would be a big strategic win for Britain. It's likely that we'd then feel able to leave the defence of the Russian land border to them and Poland, freeing up British forces to act as an adjunct to the US in the Pacific.

    On EU membership, a Ukraine in the EU is likely to receive more EU funding for reconstruction and economic development. Even with Brexit barriers to trade that creates a larger market for potential British trade.
    Long term we actually don’t want a permanent defence against Russia, but rather to cajole Russia closer to the West. Ukrainian NATO membership would be standing sore.

    Britain should want to bring flesh and meaning to Macron’s proposed partnership, and Ukraine’s membership brings that. At present it is too corrupt and poor for full membership anyway.
    It's a mistake to think that we can influence Russia in such a way. We should be ready to respond positively to positive action from them, but thinking that we can cajole them in such a way has left us open to being manipulated by them.

    We have to wait until they are interested in a positive relationship with us, and that can't happen if we are still conceding that countries that border Russia don't have full sovereign independence from Russia. That was a principle supposedly established in 1648, but it's still a lesson Russia needs to learn.
    I accept all that but let’s just understand the realpolitik of NATO membership, and the accompanying commitments.

    Also, we must concede that the key geopolitical competition is between the West and China. I actually think Biden is going too far with his tech blocking policies, but I so no reason to keep pushing Russia ever closer into Chinese arms.

    I accept the above doesn’t naturally apply to today’s Russia, but I am taking post-war.
    It would have been great if the 1991-2000-something period had turned out differently, but Russia has made its choice now. Absent a major revolution it's not going to do anything other than back China now.

    We need to accept and adjust to this reality. The strategic opportunity for the West is in helping India to the same realisation, and having them as a reliable ally.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Quebec’s groundhog Fred la Marmotte has died.

    It was somewhat of a surprise - they had a whole event leading up to his prediction only for his death to be announced.

    No doubt Leon will say this foretells nuclear disaster....

    While running in Central Park early this morning, I saw a raccoon making his way across the road.

    Apparently there are only 20-odd living there.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,359

    Labour’s proposal to favour “black owned businesses” is highly regrettable.

    In my experience it simply creates a special class of grifters, with no actual impact on the structural inequality of black people.

    The Liberal Democrats (remember them?) ought to be vocally against this.

    What is a “black-owned business”? Beyond a certain size, a company will have managers and shareholders of varying ethnicities.

    If it’s sole traders, we’ll they’re not going to be awarded government contracts in any event.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Sean_F said:

    Labour’s proposal to favour “black owned businesses” is highly regrettable.

    In my experience it simply creates a special class of grifters, with no actual impact on the structural inequality of black people.

    The Liberal Democrats (remember them?) ought to be vocally against this.

    What is a “black-owned business”? Beyond a certain size, a company will have managers and shareholders of varying ethnicities.

    If it’s sole traders, we’ll they’re not going to be awarded government contracts in any event.
    It’s a big thing in the US, so I presume it can be done somehow.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Boris will say anything for a bit of media.
    It is probably in Britain’s best strategic interests at this juncture for Ukraine not to join NATO, nor the EU.

    Why do you say that? I would think that Ukraine in NATO would be a big strategic win for Britain. It's likely that we'd then feel able to leave the defence of the Russian land border to them and Poland, freeing up British forces to act as an adjunct to the US in the Pacific.

    On EU membership, a Ukraine in the EU is likely to receive more EU funding for reconstruction and economic development. Even with Brexit barriers to trade that creates a larger market for potential British trade.
    Long term we actually don’t want a permanent defence against Russia, but rather to cajole Russia closer to the West. Ukrainian NATO membership would be standing sore.

    Britain should want to bring flesh and meaning to Macron’s proposed partnership, and Ukraine’s membership brings that. At present it is too corrupt and poor for full membership anyway.
    It's a mistake to think that we can influence Russia in such a way. We should be ready to respond positively to positive action from them, but thinking that we can cajole them in such a way has left us open to being manipulated by them.

    We have to wait until they are interested in a positive relationship with us, and that can't happen if we are still conceding that countries that border Russia don't have full sovereign independence from Russia. That was a principle supposedly established in 1648, but it's still a lesson Russia needs to learn.
    I accept all that but let’s just understand the realpolitik of NATO membership, and the accompanying commitments.

    Also, we must concede that the key geopolitical competition is between the West and China. I actually think Biden is going too far with his tech blocking policies, but I so no reason to keep pushing Russia ever closer into Chinese arms.

    I accept the above doesn’t naturally apply to today’s Russia, but I am taking post-war.
    It would have been great if the 1991-2000-something period had turned out differently, but Russia has made its choice now. Absent a major revolution it's not going to do anything other than back China now.

    We need to accept and adjust to this reality. The strategic opportunity for the West is in helping India to the same realisation, and having them as a reliable ally.
    This doesn’t make sense to me.
    We must hope and plan to seduce Russia toward the West, while of course ensuring we retain our defences if we cannot.
  • Quebec’s groundhog Fred la Marmotte has died.

    It was somewhat of a surprise - they had a whole event leading up to his prediction only for his death to be announced.

    No doubt Leon will say this foretells nuclear disaster....

    While running in Central Park early this morning, I saw a raccoon making his way across the road.

    Apparently there are only 20-odd living there.
    20-odd?
    Pshaw, there are thousands in Berlin, I've even seen one much to my inebriated surprise.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    Sean_F said:

    Labour’s proposal to favour “black owned businesses” is highly regrettable.

    In my experience it simply creates a special class of grifters, with no actual impact on the structural inequality of black people.

    The Liberal Democrats (remember them?) ought to be vocally against this.

    What is a “black-owned business”? Beyond a certain size, a company will have managers and shareholders of varying ethnicities.

    If it’s sole traders, we’ll they’re not going to be awarded government contracts in any event.
    I imagine that's the concern about grifters, because essentially the challenge will be to create a corporate structure that satisfies the eligibility requirements, and then fulfill the contracts by subcontracting.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361

    Boris will say anything for a bit of media.
    It is probably in Britain’s best strategic interests at this juncture for Ukraine not to join NATO, nor the EU.

    Why do you say that? I would think that Ukraine in NATO would be a big strategic win for Britain. It's likely that we'd then feel able to leave the defence of the Russian land border to them and Poland, freeing up British forces to act as an adjunct to the US in the Pacific.

    On EU membership, a Ukraine in the EU is likely to receive more EU funding for reconstruction and economic development. Even with Brexit barriers to trade that creates a larger market for potential British trade.
    Long term we actually don’t want a permanent defence against Russia, but rather to cajole Russia closer to the West. Ukrainian NATO membership would be standing sore.

    Britain should want to bring flesh and meaning to Macron’s proposed partnership, and Ukraine’s membership brings that. At present it is too corrupt and poor for full membership anyway.
    It's a mistake to think that we can influence Russia in such a way. We should be ready to respond positively to positive action from them, but thinking that we can cajole them in such a way has left us open to being manipulated by them.

    We have to wait until they are interested in a positive relationship with us, and that can't happen if we are still conceding that countries that border Russia don't have full sovereign independence from Russia. That was a principle supposedly established in 1648, but it's still a lesson Russia needs to learn.
    I accept all that but let’s just understand the realpolitik of NATO membership, and the accompanying commitments.

    Also, we must concede that the key geopolitical competition is between the West and China. I actually think Biden is going too far with his tech blocking policies, but I so no reason to keep pushing Russia ever closer into Chinese arms.

    I accept the above doesn’t naturally apply to today’s Russia, but I am taking post-war.
    It would have been great if the 1991-2000-something period had turned out differently, but Russia has made its choice now. Absent a major revolution it's not going to do anything other than back China now.

    We need to accept and adjust to this reality. The strategic opportunity for the West is in helping India to the same realisation, and having them as a reliable ally.
    This doesn’t make sense to me.
    We must hope and plan to seduce Russia toward the West, while of course ensuring we retain our defences if we cannot.
    I think you're suffering a delusion about the extent of our influence on internal Russian politics, particularly while it's dominated by a gangster ruling class with delusions of imperial grandeur.

    There's nothing that we can offer them, that they are interested in, except for abandoning our own principles on democracy, sovereignty and the rule of law. There's no way we can seduce them in to becoming a trustworthy partner.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    The UK has a special visa for top tech talent, but the body that adminsters the visa has been defunded. And the body that's replacing it has said it won't adminster the visa. Good work everyone.
    https://twitter.com/Sam_Dumitriu/status/1621171021230362624

    https://www.kingsleynapley.co.uk/insights/blogs/immigration-law-blog/what-tech-nations-closure-means-for-the-global-talent-visa-and-tech-migration
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited February 2023

    Boris will say anything for a bit of media.
    It is probably in Britain’s best strategic interests at this juncture for Ukraine not to join NATO, nor the EU.

    Why do you say that? I would think that Ukraine in NATO would be a big strategic win for Britain. It's likely that we'd then feel able to leave the defence of the Russian land border to them and Poland, freeing up British forces to act as an adjunct to the US in the Pacific.

    On EU membership, a Ukraine in the EU is likely to receive more EU funding for reconstruction and economic development. Even with Brexit barriers to trade that creates a larger market for potential British trade.
    Long term we actually don’t want a permanent defence against Russia, but rather to cajole Russia closer to the West. Ukrainian NATO membership would be standing sore.

    Britain should want to bring flesh and meaning to Macron’s proposed partnership, and Ukraine’s membership brings that. At present it is too corrupt and poor for full membership anyway.
    It's a mistake to think that we can influence Russia in such a way. We should be ready to respond positively to positive action from them, but thinking that we can cajole them in such a way has left us open to being manipulated by them.

    We have to wait until they are interested in a positive relationship with us, and that can't happen if we are still conceding that countries that border Russia don't have full sovereign independence from Russia. That was a principle supposedly established in 1648, but it's still a lesson Russia needs to learn.
    I accept all that but let’s just understand the realpolitik of NATO membership, and the accompanying commitments.

    Also, we must concede that the key geopolitical competition is between the West and China. I actually think Biden is going too far with his tech blocking policies, but I so no reason to keep pushing Russia ever closer into Chinese arms.

    I accept the above doesn’t naturally apply to today’s Russia, but I am taking post-war.
    It would have been great if the 1991-2000-something period had turned out differently, but Russia has made its choice now. Absent a major revolution it's not going to do anything other than back China now.

    We need to accept and adjust to this reality. The strategic opportunity for the West is in helping India to the same realisation, and having them as a reliable ally.
    This doesn’t make sense to me.
    We must hope and plan to seduce Russia toward the West, while of course ensuring we retain our defences if we cannot.
    I think you're suffering a delusion about the extent of our influence on internal Russian politics, particularly while it's dominated by a gangster ruling class with delusions of imperial grandeur.

    There's nothing that we can offer them, that they are interested in, except for abandoning our own principles on democracy, sovereignty and the rule of law. There's no way we can seduce them in to becoming a trustworthy partner.
    I’m under no illusions about Russia.

    However you just don’t give up geopolitical strategy because things look tough.

    Nixon went to China.
    It is not pre-ordained that Russia will remain a gangster state, nor that the West can never hope to partner effectively with it.

    The Russian people - like people everywhere - want freedom and prosperity. Start there.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874

    Labour’s proposal to favour “black owned businesses” is highly regrettable.

    In my experience it simply creates a special class of grifters, with no actual impact on the structural inequality of black people.

    The Liberal Democrats (remember them?) ought to be vocally against this.

    Do you have a link to the details of this policy?
    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/labour-hopes-to-ensure-black-led-firms-access-lucrative-government-contracts
    Thanks. I guess the crux of this matter is what "more support" actually means.

    Regardless, this is London bubble stuff.
    Is it London bubble stuff?
    Maybe. It won’t deter me at present for voting left, and it remains a proposal only at this stage.

    Nevertheless, it saps confidence in Labour’s ability to look beyond its own client vote. Indeed I would argue that Labour’s biggest risk is not capture by unions but capture by selfish identity groups.
    As said, these are ideas and recommendations and Starmer will want nothing that will push wavering ex-Conservatives back into the blue camp.

    I'm thinking about the notion a Government should not have the right to revoke my citizenship. Presumably this is a response to the high profile cases of individuals going to the Middle East and joining extreme radical Islamic groups to the extent of even fighting British armed forces and then trying to get back into the UK.

    Are there or should there be any circumstances in which a Government should have the right to revoke citizenship? I can understand why some would argue the right should exist but presumably we would also accept there should be strong legal safeguards to prevent a future Government unilaterally revoking the citizenship of anyone it doesn't like and throwing them out the country.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839

    Quebec’s groundhog Fred la Marmotte has died.

    It was somewhat of a surprise - they had a whole event leading up to his prediction only for his death to be announced.

    No doubt Leon will say this foretells nuclear disaster....

    While running in Central Park early this morning, I saw a raccoon making his way across the road.

    Apparently there are only 20-odd living there.
    20-odd?
    Pshaw, there are thousands in Berlin, I've even seen one much to my inebriated surprise.
    Not to mention the Byres Road on a Friday night, the number of folk who overdo the eye liner.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Nigelb said:

    The UK has a special visa for top tech talent, but the body that adminsters the visa has been defunded. And the body that's replacing it has said it won't adminster the visa. Good work everyone.
    https://twitter.com/Sam_Dumitriu/status/1621171021230362624

    https://www.kingsleynapley.co.uk/insights/blogs/immigration-law-blog/what-tech-nations-closure-means-for-the-global-talent-visa-and-tech-migration

    Britain seems sclerotic as fuck.
    @MaxPB, if you can, send me that report.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    stodge said:

    Labour’s proposal to favour “black owned businesses” is highly regrettable.

    In my experience it simply creates a special class of grifters, with no actual impact on the structural inequality of black people.

    The Liberal Democrats (remember them?) ought to be vocally against this.

    Do you have a link to the details of this policy?
    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/labour-hopes-to-ensure-black-led-firms-access-lucrative-government-contracts
    Thanks. I guess the crux of this matter is what "more support" actually means.

    Regardless, this is London bubble stuff.
    Is it London bubble stuff?
    Maybe. It won’t deter me at present for voting left, and it remains a proposal only at this stage.

    Nevertheless, it saps confidence in Labour’s ability to look beyond its own client vote. Indeed I would argue that Labour’s biggest risk is not capture by unions but capture by selfish identity groups.
    As said, these are ideas and recommendations and Starmer will want nothing that will push wavering ex-Conservatives back into the blue camp.

    I'm thinking about the notion a Government should not have the right to revoke my citizenship. Presumably this is a response to the high profile cases of individuals going to the Middle East and joining extreme radical Islamic groups to the extent of even fighting British armed forces and then trying to get back into the UK.

    Are there or should there be any circumstances in which a Government should have the right to revoke citizenship? I can understand why some would argue the right should exist but presumably we would also accept there should be strong legal safeguards to prevent a future Government unilaterally revoking the citizenship of anyone it doesn't like and throwing them out the country.
    Personally I do not believe that the Government should have the right to revoke anyone’s citizenship.

    I’m aware this power has existed in some form for quite a while, but I abhor it.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,041
    Pardon my obsession but for the greatest experience without drugs listen to the piano concertos of Sergei Bortkiewicz and Viktor Kosenko. The score of the latter is unbelievable - it needs the formidable talent of Yuja Wang.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Scott_xP said:
    Possibly, although party chair can probably sit infilled for longer than most cabinet posts. I mean, surely there is a deputy chair?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    stodge said:

    Labour’s proposal to favour “black owned businesses” is highly regrettable.

    In my experience it simply creates a special class of grifters, with no actual impact on the structural inequality of black people.

    The Liberal Democrats (remember them?) ought to be vocally against this.

    Do you have a link to the details of this policy?
    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/labour-hopes-to-ensure-black-led-firms-access-lucrative-government-contracts
    Thanks. I guess the crux of this matter is what "more support" actually means.

    Regardless, this is London bubble stuff.
    Is it London bubble stuff?
    Maybe. It won’t deter me at present for voting left, and it remains a proposal only at this stage.

    Nevertheless, it saps confidence in Labour’s ability to look beyond its own client vote. Indeed I would argue that Labour’s biggest risk is not capture by unions but capture by selfish identity groups.
    As said, these are ideas and recommendations and Starmer will want nothing that will push wavering ex-Conservatives back into the blue camp.

    I'm thinking about the notion a Government should not have the right to revoke my citizenship. Presumably this is a response to the high profile cases of individuals going to the Middle East and joining extreme radical Islamic groups to the extent of even fighting British armed forces and then trying to get back into the UK.

    Are there or should there be any circumstances in which a Government should have the right to revoke citizenship? I can understand why some would argue the right should exist but presumably we would also accept there should be strong legal safeguards to prevent a future Government unilaterally revoking the citizenship of anyone it doesn't like and throwing them out the country.
    Personally I do not believe that the Government should have the right to revoke anyone’s citizenship.

    I’m aware this power has existed in some form for quite a while, but I abhor it.
    I think where there is a clear other citizenship (say someone from NZ who also took U.K. citizenship, only to then join a terrorist group fighting against the U.K.) I have no issue with this, assuming there are legal reasons (usually crimes/treason etc).
    Where no other citizenship exists, no. The Begum case is the latter, and I would like her U.K. citizenship back, and her put on trial, albeit with compassion, as she is clearly a victim of grooming.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    stodge said:

    Labour’s proposal to favour “black owned businesses” is highly regrettable.

    In my experience it simply creates a special class of grifters, with no actual impact on the structural inequality of black people.

    The Liberal Democrats (remember them?) ought to be vocally against this.

    Do you have a link to the details of this policy?
    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/labour-hopes-to-ensure-black-led-firms-access-lucrative-government-contracts
    Thanks. I guess the crux of this matter is what "more support" actually means.

    Regardless, this is London bubble stuff.
    Is it London bubble stuff?
    Maybe. It won’t deter me at present for voting left, and it remains a proposal only at this stage.

    Nevertheless, it saps confidence in Labour’s ability to look beyond its own client vote. Indeed I would argue that Labour’s biggest risk is not capture by unions but capture by selfish identity groups.
    As said, these are ideas and recommendations and Starmer will want nothing that will push wavering ex-Conservatives back into the blue camp.

    I'm thinking about the notion a Government should not have the right to revoke my citizenship. Presumably this is a response to the high profile cases of individuals going to the Middle East and joining extreme radical Islamic groups to the extent of even fighting British armed forces and then trying to get back into the UK.

    Are there or should there be any circumstances in which a Government should have the right to revoke citizenship? I can understand why some would argue the right should exist but presumably we would also accept there should be strong legal safeguards to prevent a future Government unilaterally revoking the citizenship of anyone it doesn't like and throwing them out the country.
    Personally I do not believe that the Government should have the right to revoke anyone’s citizenship.

    I’m aware this power has existed in some form for quite a while, but I abhor it.
    I think where there is a clear other citizenship (say someone from NZ who also took U.K. citizenship, only to then join a terrorist group fighting against the U.K.) I have no issue with this, assuming there are legal reasons (usually crimes/treason etc).
    Where no other citizenship exists, no. The Begum case is the latter, and I would like her U.K. citizenship back, and her put on trial, albeit with compassion, as she is clearly a victim of grooming.
    No. I don’t accept this.

    A citizenship is a citizenship. There should be no second class of citizenship.

    Begum should be tried in the UK. If she’s been groomed or whatever, that’s a reason for some sort of clemency. But citizenship should be sacrosanct.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,394
    edited February 2023
    Just doing my sums.

    I bought the car I sold today two years and three months ago for £5,900.

    I sold it today after 35,000 miles for £5,000.

    That's a depreciation of 2.8p per mile. I aim for 10 as a good baseline.

    My previous car in which I did 108,000 miles and drove it into the ground was good, but that was better.

    Wasn't even that exciting a car!

    Second hand car market at the moment is completely mad.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    Nigelb said:

    The UK has a special visa for top tech talent, but the body that adminsters the visa has been defunded. And the body that's replacing it has said it won't adminster the visa. Good work everyone.
    https://twitter.com/Sam_Dumitriu/status/1621171021230362624

    https://www.kingsleynapley.co.uk/insights/blogs/immigration-law-blog/what-tech-nations-closure-means-for-the-global-talent-visa-and-tech-migration

    Britain seems sclerotic as fuck.
    @MaxPB, if you can, send me that report.
    It isn't a sclerosis.
    It's more an entrenched ideological mindset that any penny saved anywhere at all is automatically a "good thing".
  • stodge said:

    Labour’s proposal to favour “black owned businesses” is highly regrettable.

    In my experience it simply creates a special class of grifters, with no actual impact on the structural inequality of black people.

    The Liberal Democrats (remember them?) ought to be vocally against this.

    Do you have a link to the details of this policy?
    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/labour-hopes-to-ensure-black-led-firms-access-lucrative-government-contracts
    Thanks. I guess the crux of this matter is what "more support" actually means.

    Regardless, this is London bubble stuff.
    Is it London bubble stuff?
    Maybe. It won’t deter me at present for voting left, and it remains a proposal only at this stage.

    Nevertheless, it saps confidence in Labour’s ability to look beyond its own client vote. Indeed I would argue that Labour’s biggest risk is not capture by unions but capture by selfish identity groups.
    As said, these are ideas and recommendations and Starmer will want nothing that will push wavering ex-Conservatives back into the blue camp.

    I'm thinking about the notion a Government should not have the right to revoke my citizenship. Presumably this is a response to the high profile cases of individuals going to the Middle East and joining extreme radical Islamic groups to the extent of even fighting British armed forces and then trying to get back into the UK.

    Are there or should there be any circumstances in which a Government should have the right to revoke citizenship? I can understand why some would argue the right should exist but presumably we would also accept there should be strong legal safeguards to prevent a future Government unilaterally revoking the citizenship of anyone it doesn't like and throwing them out the country.
    Personally I do not believe that the Government should have the right to revoke anyone’s citizenship.

    I’m aware this power has existed in some form for quite a while, but I abhor it.
    I think where there is a clear other citizenship (say someone from NZ who also took U.K. citizenship, only to then join a terrorist group fighting against the U.K.) I have no issue with this, assuming there are legal reasons (usually crimes/treason etc).
    Where no other citizenship exists, no. The Begum case is the latter, and I would like her U.K. citizenship back, and her put on trial, albeit with compassion, as she is clearly a victim of grooming.
    100% spot on.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Nigelb said:

    The UK has a special visa for top tech talent, but the body that adminsters the visa has been defunded. And the body that's replacing it has said it won't adminster the visa. Good work everyone.
    https://twitter.com/Sam_Dumitriu/status/1621171021230362624

    https://www.kingsleynapley.co.uk/insights/blogs/immigration-law-blog/what-tech-nations-closure-means-for-the-global-talent-visa-and-tech-migration

    Britain seems sclerotic as fuck.
    @MaxPB, if you can, send me that report.
    I don’t know what the answer is, but it certainly doesn’t seem to be this government.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Well, when you put it like that I'm surprised he did not rise to high office.

    A former Labour MP accused of expenses fraud has been described as “thoroughly inadequate”, “thoroughly rotten” and “stuffing the parliamentary payroll with mates and cronies” who did no relevant work.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/feb/02/jared-o-mara-thoroughly-rotten-prosecutor-in-trial-says
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    stodge said:

    Labour’s proposal to favour “black owned businesses” is highly regrettable.

    In my experience it simply creates a special class of grifters, with no actual impact on the structural inequality of black people.

    The Liberal Democrats (remember them?) ought to be vocally against this.

    Do you have a link to the details of this policy?
    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/labour-hopes-to-ensure-black-led-firms-access-lucrative-government-contracts
    Thanks. I guess the crux of this matter is what "more support" actually means.

    Regardless, this is London bubble stuff.
    Is it London bubble stuff?
    Maybe. It won’t deter me at present for voting left, and it remains a proposal only at this stage.

    Nevertheless, it saps confidence in Labour’s ability to look beyond its own client vote. Indeed I would argue that Labour’s biggest risk is not capture by unions but capture by selfish identity groups.
    As said, these are ideas and recommendations and Starmer will want nothing that will push wavering ex-Conservatives back into the blue camp.

    I'm thinking about the notion a Government should not have the right to revoke my citizenship. Presumably this is a response to the high profile cases of individuals going to the Middle East and joining extreme radical Islamic groups to the extent of even fighting British armed forces and then trying to get back into the UK.

    Are there or should there be any circumstances in which a Government should have the right to revoke citizenship? I can understand why some would argue the right should exist but presumably we would also accept there should be strong legal safeguards to prevent a future Government unilaterally revoking the citizenship of anyone it doesn't like and throwing them out the country.
    Personally I do not believe that the Government should have the right to revoke anyone’s citizenship.

    I’m aware this power has existed in some form for quite a while, but I abhor it.
    I think where there is a clear other citizenship (say someone from NZ who also took U.K. citizenship, only to then join a terrorist group fighting against the U.K.) I have no issue with this, assuming there are legal reasons (usually crimes/treason etc).
    Where no other citizenship exists, no. The Begum case is the latter, and I would like her U.K. citizenship back, and her put on trial, albeit with compassion, as she is clearly a victim of grooming.
    No. I don’t accept this.

    A citizenship is a citizenship. There should be no second class of citizenship.

    Begum should be tried in the UK. If she’s been groomed or whatever, that’s a reason for some sort of clemency. But citizenship should be sacrosanct.
    I object to it as well, where the government strip people of their citizenship, is basically banishment and exile.

    I think that Begum will end up being regarded as a victim of grooming, and the UK government will end up apologising to her and probably paying her a lot of compensation. I think the zeitgeist has changed and people like Patel and Braverman are not seeing the situation, they are failing to move with the times.

    What is questionable is how easy it is to get British citizenship. A taxi driver once told me that he had 5 citizenships. That is a stupid state of affairs, it devalues the whole purpose of citizenship.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    The UK has a special visa for top tech talent, but the body that adminsters the visa has been defunded. And the body that's replacing it has said it won't adminster the visa. Good work everyone.
    https://twitter.com/Sam_Dumitriu/status/1621171021230362624

    https://www.kingsleynapley.co.uk/insights/blogs/immigration-law-blog/what-tech-nations-closure-means-for-the-global-talent-visa-and-tech-migration

    Britain seems sclerotic as fuck.
    @MaxPB, if you can, send me that report.
    It isn't a sclerosis.
    It's more an entrenched ideological mindset that any penny saved anywhere at all is automatically a "good thing".
    That’s part of it, but it’s more than that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,394
    Somebody was saying earlier Britain needed less false modesty. Which is bullshit, because arrogance and bragging by mediocrities is a big problem in this country.

    What we need is a much bigger willingness to 'fess up to mistakes.

    Here's an example.

    Energy firms asked to suspend prepayment meter installs
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64504609

    Is Chris O'Shea responsible for what happened? Yes. Is he likely to face calls to resign? Yes. Should he resign? Arguably, yes.

    So far play to him for holding his hands up here. Lots would have said 'I didn't know. Not my fault.' He hasn't done so.

    What happens next will be interesting but will surely involve criminal prosecutions.

    If only the likes of Raab, Case, Acland-Hood and Dick would show the same self-awareness...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    Labour’s proposal to favour “black owned businesses” is highly regrettable.

    In my experience it simply creates a special class of grifters, with no actual impact on the structural inequality of black people.

    The Liberal Democrats (remember them?) ought to be vocally against this.

    In the US the corruption from this kind of thing is massive. The groups supposed to be helped don’t really benefit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    edited February 2023

    stodge said:

    Labour’s proposal to favour “black owned businesses” is highly regrettable.

    In my experience it simply creates a special class of grifters, with no actual impact on the structural inequality of black people.

    The Liberal Democrats (remember them?) ought to be vocally against this.

    Do you have a link to the details of this policy?
    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/labour-hopes-to-ensure-black-led-firms-access-lucrative-government-contracts
    Thanks. I guess the crux of this matter is what "more support" actually means.

    Regardless, this is London bubble stuff.
    Is it London bubble stuff?
    Maybe. It won’t deter me at present for voting left, and it remains a proposal only at this stage.

    Nevertheless, it saps confidence in Labour’s ability to look beyond its own client vote. Indeed I would argue that Labour’s biggest risk is not capture by unions but capture by selfish identity groups.
    As said, these are ideas and recommendations and Starmer will want nothing that will push wavering ex-Conservatives back into the blue camp.

    I'm thinking about the notion a Government should not have the right to revoke my citizenship. Presumably this is a response to the high profile cases of individuals going to the Middle East and joining extreme radical Islamic groups to the extent of even fighting British armed forces and then trying to get back into the UK.

    Are there or should there be any circumstances in which a Government should have the right to revoke citizenship? I can understand why some would argue the right should exist but presumably we would also accept there should be strong legal safeguards to prevent a future Government unilaterally revoking the citizenship of anyone it doesn't like and throwing them out the country.
    Personally I do not believe that the Government should have the right to revoke anyone’s citizenship.

    I’m aware this power has existed in some form for quite a while, but I abhor it.
    I think where there is a clear other citizenship (say someone from NZ who also took U.K. citizenship, only to then join a terrorist group fighting against the U.K.) I have no issue with this, assuming there are legal reasons (usually crimes/treason etc).
    Where no other citizenship exists, no. The Begum case is the latter, and I would like her U.K. citizenship back, and her put on trial, albeit with compassion, as she is clearly a victim of grooming.
    The difficulty with this whole affair is a lot of time is spent on re-arguing why the government should not have the right to do this sort of thing, which as the thread shows many people here would agree with, so the argument is about whether the legal safeguards preventing arbitrary and unreasonable uses of the power are in place or not, but since we cannot know all the facts of individual cases that we hear about we cannot really assess the strength of those safeguards, since what looks unilateral and unreasonable might not be. Didn't the Supreme Court recently wrap the knuckles of a lower court for trying to substitute its own judgement for a Minister's based on only part of the evidence? Of course, a case focused on whether all relevant factors were considered is on stronger ground, and it does feel media wise at least that the ground has shifted more sympathetically in the Begum case.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    ydoethur said:

    Just doing my sums.

    I bought the car I sold today two years and three months ago for £5,900.

    I sold it today after 35,000 miles for £5,000.

    That's a depreciation of 2.8p per mile. I aim for 10 as a good baseline.

    My previous car in which I did 108,000 miles and drove it into the ground was good, but that was better.

    Wasn't even that exciting a car!

    Second hand car market at the moment is completely mad.

    I think the underlying cause of all this is so much inflation on new car prices.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    kle4 said:

    Well, when you put it like that I'm surprised he did not rise to high office.

    A former Labour MP accused of expenses fraud has been described as “thoroughly inadequate”, “thoroughly rotten” and “stuffing the parliamentary payroll with mates and cronies” who did no relevant work.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/feb/02/jared-o-mara-thoroughly-rotten-prosecutor-in-trial-says

    He picked the wrong party. Johnson would have seen him right.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    I am also, I think, against “mandatory race wage gap reporting”.

    I don’t want businesses marking down what race I am, nor that of my colleagues thanks.
    This stuff is pernicious.

    I'm never quite sure what category to put our son under, as he's half Turkish. Usually we opt for 'white other' if that's available. Goodness knows why that should matter.
    It's not as though people are necessarily consistent anyway. Someone born to parents who came over from Morocco, say, might well put a different ethnicity than their parents even. I say might well, since I've known it happen.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    stodge said:

    Labour’s proposal to favour “black owned businesses” is highly regrettable.

    In my experience it simply creates a special class of grifters, with no actual impact on the structural inequality of black people.

    The Liberal Democrats (remember them?) ought to be vocally against this.

    Do you have a link to the details of this policy?
    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/labour-hopes-to-ensure-black-led-firms-access-lucrative-government-contracts
    Thanks. I guess the crux of this matter is what "more support" actually means.

    Regardless, this is London bubble stuff.
    Is it London bubble stuff?
    Maybe. It won’t deter me at present for voting left, and it remains a proposal only at this stage.

    Nevertheless, it saps confidence in Labour’s ability to look beyond its own client vote. Indeed I would argue that Labour’s biggest risk is not capture by unions but capture by selfish identity groups.
    As said, these are ideas and recommendations and Starmer will want nothing that will push wavering ex-Conservatives back into the blue camp.

    I'm thinking about the notion a Government should not have the right to revoke my citizenship. Presumably this is a response to the high profile cases of individuals going to the Middle East and joining extreme radical Islamic groups to the extent of even fighting British armed forces and then trying to get back into the UK.

    Are there or should there be any circumstances in which a Government should have the right to revoke citizenship? I can understand why some would argue the right should exist but presumably we would also accept there should be strong legal safeguards to prevent a future Government unilaterally revoking the citizenship of anyone it doesn't like and throwing them out the country.
    Personally I do not believe that the Government should have the right to revoke anyone’s citizenship.

    I’m aware this power has existed in some form for quite a while, but I abhor it.
    I think where there is a clear other citizenship (say someone from NZ who also took U.K. citizenship, only to then join a terrorist group fighting against the U.K.) I have no issue with this, assuming there are legal reasons (usually crimes/treason etc).
    Where no other citizenship exists, no. The Begum case is the latter, and I would like her U.K. citizenship back, and her put on trial, albeit with compassion, as she is clearly a victim of grooming.
    100% spot on.
    No - removal of citizenship is a hack. What we actually need is a usable treason statute. Fight for the enemies of the country - get life in prison.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    The UK has a special visa for top tech talent, but the body that adminsters the visa has been defunded. And the body that's replacing it has said it won't adminster the visa. Good work everyone.
    https://twitter.com/Sam_Dumitriu/status/1621171021230362624

    https://www.kingsleynapley.co.uk/insights/blogs/immigration-law-blog/what-tech-nations-closure-means-for-the-global-talent-visa-and-tech-migration

    Britain seems sclerotic as fuck.
    @MaxPB, if you can, send me that report.
    It isn't a sclerosis.
    It's more an entrenched ideological mindset that any penny saved anywhere at all is automatically a "good thing".
    Need some classes on false economies at the Treasury.
This discussion has been closed.