BoJo a 9% betting chance to be CON leader at the election – politicalbetting.com

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BoJo a 9% betting chance to be CON leader at the election – politicalbetting.com

This is a betting market that I’ve not looked at before and it is very difficult to argue that the current odds are wrong.

Read the full story here

Sunil_Prasannan

POBJWAS!

beinndearg

File under ne va pas se passer.

IanB2

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

dixiedean

Really?
If Sunak went under a bus, who would be favourite?

Mexicanpete

dixiedean said:

Really?
If Sunak went under a bus, who would be favourite...

... to have pushed him? I just can't think.

Foxy

IanB2 said:

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.

Nigel_Foremain

Con leader is an appropriate title for the lying Fat Clown

Driver

The time value of money is the only thing that stops this being a massive lay.

Scott_xP

Driver said:

The time value of money is the only thing that stops this being a massive lay.

Is that a quote from one of his many ex wives?

kinabalu

Rather sell than buy this one. 5% tops imo.

IanB2

Scott_xP said:

Driver said:

The time value of money is the only thing that stops this being a massive lay.

Is that a quote from one of his many ex wives?

Being crushed by a binbag full of custard, or having a wardrobe fall on you with the key sticking out, were more graphic descriptions

Peter_the_Punter

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.

Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

9% ?

Yes, 9% insane is about right

FrancisUrquhart

dixiedean said:

Really?
If Sunak went under a bus, who would be favourite?

Given he is the size of a borrower, he would just walk out from under the other side....

IanB2

Peter_the_Punter said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.

Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

9% ?

Yes, 9% insane is about right

9% insane is probably an underestimate. But he was 'persuaded' by some mix of promises and threats not to stand the last time, despite apparently having the nominations, and - certainly this side of the inquiry into him completing - he'll be similarly persuaded the next time, if he is foolish enough to go for it again.

He's on the warpath but, remembering how childish he is, my view is that he just wants Sunak to have a hard time - and make sure he doesn't succeed - and doesn't care about anything else, whether policy or party.

HYUFD

dixiedean said:

Really?
If Sunak went under a bus, who would be favourite?

Steve Barclay now probably.

However Sunak likely stays until the next general election, Johnson doesn't have the majority of Tory MPs behind him he needs to remove Sunak in a VONC

dixiedean

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

Really?
If Sunak went under a bus, who would be favourite?

Steve Barclay now probably.

However Sunak likely stays until the next general election, Johnson doesn't have the majority of Tory MPs behind him he needs to remove Sunak in a VONC

Which sums the Conservative Party up just now.
I'm a politics geek and I struggle to create a mental picture of him.
Or think of a notable thing he's done.

beinndearg

IanB2 said:

Scott_xP said:

Driver said:

The time value of money is the only thing that stops this being a massive lay.

Is that a quote from one of his many ex wives?

Being crushed by a binbag full of custard, or having a wardrobe fall on you with the key sticking out, were more graphic descriptions

Spookily I am drinking White Cap in Nairobi airport departures in pretty much exactly the spot I was in 2006 when the Prescott secretary wardrobe thing was breaking

ydoethur

dixiedean said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

Really?
If Sunak went under a bus, who would be favourite?

Steve Barclay now probably.

However Sunak likely stays until the next general election, Johnson doesn't have the majority of Tory MPs behind him he needs to remove Sunak in a VONC

Which sums the Conservative Party up just now.
I'm a politics geek and I struggle to create a mental picture of him.
Or think of a notable thing he's done.

He was Chancellor for a couple of years and the first Hindu to be Prim...oh, you mean Barclay?

noneoftheabove

dixiedean said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

Really?
If Sunak went under a bus, who would be favourite?

Steve Barclay now probably.

However Sunak likely stays until the next general election, Johnson doesn't have the majority of Tory MPs behind him he needs to remove Sunak in a VONC

Which sums the Conservative Party up just now.
I'm a politics geek and I struggle to create a mental picture of him.
Or think of a notable thing he's done.

His claim to fame was to vote againts the Governments Brexit policy.......whilst Brexit minister. Back in the long forgotten days of 2019 that was quite shocking rather than the triviality the Tories have now made such ridiculous behaviour.

Luckyguy1983

Boris is definitely giving himself a very high profile at the moment. I don't relish him returning to power - the only positive might be the urgency with which he would need to show economic growth and tangible progress on the issues of the day to avoid a drubbing at the election and going right back to square one.

ydoethur

Peter_the_Punter said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.

Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

9% ?

Yes, 9% insane is about right

There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.

What went wrong?

DavidL

All charges dropped against Mason Greenwood. I mean, blimey.

IanB2

Luckyguy1983 said:

Boris is definitely giving himself a very high profile at the moment. I don't relish him returning to power - the only positive might be the urgency with which he would need to show economic growth and tangible progress on the issues of the day to avoid a drubbing at the election and going right back to square one.

a) He needs to be, and misses being, the centre of attention;
b) He hates Rishi for being the first (second) big hitter to come out against him, and wants Rishi to fail;
c) He fears anyone following him who might show him up by clearing up any of his mess.

SandyRentool

dixiedean said:

Really?
If Sunak went under a bus, who would be favourite?

The bus driver?

noneoftheabove

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.

Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

9% ?

Yes, 9% insane is about right

There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.

What went wrong?

Brexit, the swivel eyed loons, the opportunists and the ideological.

Scott_xP

@Savanta_UK: "On current polling, Labour will be strolling into Downing Street at the next election; the only question, at this… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1621192002728591363

Luckyguy1983

IanB2 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Boris is definitely giving himself a very high profile at the moment. I don't relish him returning to power - the only positive might be the urgency with which he would need to show economic growth and tangible progress on the issues of the day to avoid a drubbing at the election and going right back to square one.

a) He needs to be, and misses being, the centre of attention;
b) He hates Rishi for being the first (second) big hitter to come out against him, and wants Rishi to fail;
c) He fears anyone following him who might show him up by clearing up any of his mess.

a) Yes.
b) Possibly.
c) You think Rishi is clearing up messes? 'It's a view'

numbertwelve

You know, if it gets to the middle of next year and the Tories are so desperate that they think their shining star Boris can be parachuted back in and all will be forgiven, I can actually see the upsides.

Let the man lose them an election at the helm. Break the spell. Otherwise we might get a Boris myth that all would have been fine if they just hadn’t axed him in the first place.

Benpointer

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.

Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

9% ?

Yes, 9% insane is about right

There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.

What went wrong?

The Corn Laws?

Luckyguy1983

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.

Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

9% ?

Yes, 9% insane is about right

There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.

What went wrong?

It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.

Benpointer

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.

Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

9% ?

Yes, 9% insane is about right

There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.

What went wrong?

It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.

Nah, pragmatic would have been a Swiss-style deal with the EU following Brexit.

Nigelb

.

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.

Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

9% ?

Yes, 9% insane is about right

There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.

What went wrong?

The Corn Laws?

With this lot, it's the Con Laws.

Nigelb

Interesting from the Swiss.

Mainstream Swiss politicians are now calling for the 96 mothballed Swiss Leopard 2 tanks to be sold for as little as one symbolic franc to Poland, Slovakia, and Czechia, replacing the tanks that their governments plan to send to Ukraine - Bloomberg
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1621193886445064192

SandyRentool

Scott_xP said:

@Savanta_UK: "On current polling, Labour will be strolling into Downing Street at the next election; the only question, at this… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1621192002728591363

....point in the electoral cycle, do they still have time to bugger it up?

Luckyguy1983

...

Benpointer said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.

Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

9% ?

Yes, 9% insane is about right

There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.

What went wrong?

It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.

Nah, pragmatic would have been a Swiss-style deal with the EU following Brexit.

I wouldn't be against that as a settled deal and compromise. I do think the biggest opportunity lies in a full exit, but Switzerland is a good example of a country realistically working with its neighbours but maintaining its independence and prospering.

I would add that it does so because its constitution means these matters are decided by the people - apparently most politicians want to take them in.

Nigelb

.

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.

Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

9% ?

Yes, 9% insane is about right

There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.

What went wrong?

It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.

Any remaining shred of electoral credibility, too, apparently.

ydoethur

DavidL said:

All charges dropped against Mason Greenwood. I mean, blimey.

It does seem, in defence of the CPS, to be incredibly difficult to get guilty verdicts in rape cases. There was video evidence here - but then, so was there in this case (in Scotland) and still the jury wasn't unanimous in finding a man guilty of rape when he had said he'd done it and felt good about not being caught.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-64248542

But that, in itself, suggests other things are going terribly wrong somewhere. I'm sure @Cyclefree will be far more eloquent and informed than I could be on what and where.

Luckyguy1983

Nigelb said:

.

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.

Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

9% ?

Yes, 9% insane is about right

There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.

What went wrong?

It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.

Any remaining shred of electoral credibility, too, apparently.

Meh. The people urging hanging on to Rishi and accepting defeat for the sake of dignity seem to be the same people who were urging the defenestration of Truss (and vice versa I admit).

MikeSmithson

NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

HYUFD

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.

Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

9% ?

Yes, 9% insane is about right

There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.

What went wrong?

The Corn Laws?

Plenty of 19th century Tories opposed the 1832 Reform Act too, not just free trade

OnlyLivingBoy

MikeSmithson said:

NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

Good luck with the operation Mike, rest up.

Carnyx

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.

Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

9% ?

Yes, 9% insane is about right

There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.

What went wrong?

It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.

Would be even more pragmatic not to get the political equivalents of Godzilla and Mothra as leaders before they wrecked the economic and political landscape.

HYUFD

Luckyguy1983 said:

Nigelb said:

.

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.

Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

9% ?

Yes, 9% insane is about right

There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.

What went wrong?

It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.

Any remaining shred of electoral credibility, too, apparently.

Meh. The people urging hanging on to Rishi and accepting defeat for the sake of dignity seem to be the same people who were urging the defenestration of Truss (and vice versa I admit).

When Truss was leader the Tories were heading for 0 to 50 MPs

Rishi has at least got them to 100 to 150 MPs, 250 MPs if you believe Deltapoll

Nigelb

MikeSmithson said:

NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

I gave that a like - but as a way of expressing good wishes rather than a celebration of your impending (but temporary) absence.

All the best, Mike.

"TSE is in charge" are words to strike fear into the most sanguine.
One up on Al Haigh, though.

Beibheirli_C

Mike said: NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days.

Best of luck Mike

TSE is in charge of the site.

Words that should strike terror into the hearts of all UK politicians as they wonder what Black Swan is queued up in your absence...

Stuartinromford

Is this as bad as it sounds?

* But new “stocktake” suggests enduring “hit” from shocks such as Brexit, pandemic, & energy shock.. with supply potential of the economy growing just 0.7% a year

Was 1.5% recently, 2.5% pre financial crisis…

Includes new analysis of quicker than expected trade hit from Brexit

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1621117277255999488

londonpubman

MikeSmithson said:

NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

Hope it goes smoothly Mike see you back on here soon! 👍

Benpointer

MikeSmithson said:

NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

Best wishes Mike.

HYUFD

MikeSmithson said:

NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

Best of luck with the op

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

All charges dropped against Mason Greenwood. I mean, blimey.

It does seem, in defence of the CPS, to be incredibly difficult to get guilty verdicts in rape cases. There was video evidence here - but then, so was there in this case (in Scotland) and still the jury wasn't unanimous in finding a man guilty of rape when he had said he'd done it and felt good about not being caught.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-64248542

But that, in itself, suggests other things are going terribly wrong somewhere. I'm sure @Cyclefree will be far more eloquent and informed than I could be on what and where.

The attacks took place between December 2017 and February 2018
Convicted July 2022. Four and a half years later.

That alone tells a great deal about what's wrong with the criminal justice system.

Benpointer

HYUFD said:

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.

Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

9% ?

Yes, 9% insane is about right

There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.

What went wrong?

The Corn Laws?

Plenty of 19th century Tories opposed the 1832 Reform Act too, not just free trade

You're not endearing them to me tbh.

Luckyguy1983

..

Stuartinromford said:

Is this as bad as it sounds?

* But new “stocktake” suggests enduring “hit” from shocks such as Brexit, pandemic, & energy shock.. with supply potential of the economy growing just 0.7% a year

Was 1.5% recently, 2.5% pre financial crisis…

Includes new analysis of quicker than expected trade hit from Brexit

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1621117277255999488

Yes, Faisal Islam is every bit as bad as he sounds.

CarlottaVance

MikeSmithson said:

NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

Hope all goes well - just had my Monday op (postponed from December) moved to March.

Beibheirli_C

Stuartinromford said:

Is this as bad as it sounds?

* But new “stocktake” suggests enduring “hit” from shocks such as Brexit, pandemic, & energy shock.. with supply potential of the economy growing just 0.7% a year

Was 1.5% recently, 2.5% pre financial crisis…

Includes new analysis of quicker than expected trade hit from Brexit

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1621117277255999488

No matter how many sheets of fancy party paper they wrap it in, Brexit is still a turd....

Benpointer

Beibheirli_C said:

Mike said: NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days.

Best of luck Mike

TSE is in charge of the site.

Words that should strike terror into the hearts of all UK politicians as they wonder what Black Swan is queued up in your absence...

I notice Mike posted after close of trading, presumably to prevent scurrilous PB'ers selling ahead of the inevitable run on the stock market.

Nigelb

CarlottaVance said:

MikeSmithson said:

NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

Hope all goes well - just had my Monday op (postponed from December) moved to March.

I hope that's not too serious, Carlotta.

Stuartinromford

MikeSmithson said:

NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

Obvs you don't need good luck, but good luck anyway.

Luckyguy1983

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Nigelb said:

.

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.

Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

9% ?

Yes, 9% insane is about right

There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.

What went wrong?

It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.

Any remaining shred of electoral credibility, too, apparently.

Meh. The people urging hanging on to Rishi and accepting defeat for the sake of dignity seem to be the same people who were urging the defenestration of Truss (and vice versa I admit).

When Truss was leader the Tories were heading for 0 to 50 MPs

Rishi has at least got them to 100 to 150 MPs, 250 MPs if you believe Deltapoll

He doesn't appeal to floating voters.
He doesn't appeal to core voters.
He doesn't enthuse members and activists.
He doesn't appeal to Brexit supporters.
He doesn't appeal to Remain supporters.
He seems to appeal to a small subset of PB posters, most of whom won't vote for him, who like the fact that he seems like their sort of PM.

Benpointer

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Nigelb said:

.

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.

Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

9% ?

Yes, 9% insane is about right

There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.

What went wrong?

It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.

Any remaining shred of electoral credibility, too, apparently.

Meh. The people urging hanging on to Rishi and accepting defeat for the sake of dignity seem to be the same people who were urging the defenestration of Truss (and vice versa I admit).

When Truss was leader the Tories were heading for 0 to 50 MPs

Rishi has at least got them to 100 to 150 MPs, 250 MPs if you believe Deltapoll

He doesn't appeal to floating voters.
He doesn't appeal to core voters.
He doesn't enthuse members and activists.
He doesn't appeal to Brexit supporters.
He doesn't appeal to Remain supporters.
He seems to appeal to a small subset of PB posters, most of whom won't vote for him, who like the fact that he seems like their sort of PM.

Who would you like to see replace him Lucky?

DavidL

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

All charges dropped against Mason Greenwood. I mean, blimey.

It does seem, in defence of the CPS, to be incredibly difficult to get guilty verdicts in rape cases. There was video evidence here - but then, so was there in this case (in Scotland) and still the jury wasn't unanimous in finding a man guilty of rape when he had said he'd done it and felt good about not being caught.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-64248542

But that, in itself, suggests other things are going terribly wrong somewhere. I'm sure @Cyclefree will be far more eloquent and informed than I could be on what and where.

He was convicted though. All you need in Scotland is an absolute majority of the 15 people on the jury, that is 8 for guilty. This kind of evidence is not infrequent in the days of mobile phones. I think some people think it is a form of entrapment and it (wrongly, of course) may make them more hostile to the complainer.

But the Greenwood case is exceptional. He will have lost at least £1m in the last year and quite possibly lost the chance to go to a WC with England as well. It will be interesting to see what Man U do next.

DavidL

Stuartinromford said:

Is this as bad as it sounds?

* But new “stocktake” suggests enduring “hit” from shocks such as Brexit, pandemic, & energy shock.. with supply potential of the economy growing just 0.7% a year

Was 1.5% recently, 2.5% pre financial crisis…

Includes new analysis of quicker than expected trade hit from Brexit

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1621117277255999488

If its true, it is very bad. I have real difficulties in seeing how the economy could suffer permanent damage from the likes of Covid or an energy shock though. These are serious but transitory events.

DavidL

Beibheirli_C said:

Mike said: NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days.

Best of luck Mike

TSE is in charge of the site.

Words that should strike terror into the hearts of all UK politicians as they wonder what Black Swan is queued up in your absence...

Like all sensible readers of PB I am doing an emergency audit of stocking levels in my fall out shelter.

DavidL

SandyRentool said:

dixiedean said:

Really?
If Sunak went under a bus, who would be favourite?

The bus driver?

I have the very man
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=9ucpfMuM&id=53CD3D6E27A094385A7D764996415C3A8F5255F8&thid=OIP.9ucpfMuMoY8R5sWnxTsbfAHaD4&mediaurl=https://d1ix0byejyn2u7.cloudfront.net/drive/images/uploads/headers/ws_cropper/26_0x160_1200x629_1200x630_bus-boris.jpg&cdnurl=https://th.bing.com/th/id/R.f6e7297ccb8ca18f11e6c5a7c53b1b7c?rik=%2bFVSjzpcQZZJdg&pid=ImgRaw&r=0&exph=630&expw=1200&q=Boris+Driving+a+bus&simid=607995489423347821&FORM=IRPRST&ck=D48AD8C53E8F72E53F70F38771193979&selectedIndex=0&idpp=overlayview&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0

Beibheirli_C

DavidL said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Mike said:

Mike said: NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days.

Best of luck Mike

Mike said:

TSE is in charge of the site.

Words that should strike terror into the hearts of all UK politicians as they wonder what Black Swan is queued up in your absence...

Like all sensible readers of PB I am doing an emergency audit of stocking levels in my fall out shelter.

Very wise. I cannot stay long as I am at the checkout in Tesco having purchased all tinned goods in the food aisle. They should make bigger trolleys...

HYUFD

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Nigelb said:

.

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.

Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

9% ?

Yes, 9% insane is about right

There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.

What went wrong?

It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.

Any remaining shred of electoral credibility, too, apparently.

Meh. The people urging hanging on to Rishi and accepting defeat for the sake of dignity seem to be the same people who were urging the defenestration of Truss (and vice versa I admit).

When Truss was leader the Tories were heading for 0 to 50 MPs

Rishi has at least got them to 100 to 150 MPs, 250 MPs if you believe Deltapoll

He doesn't appeal to floating voters.
He doesn't appeal to core voters.
He doesn't enthuse members and activists.
He doesn't appeal to Brexit supporters.
He doesn't appeal to Remain supporters.
He seems to appeal to a small subset of PB posters, most of whom won't vote for him, who like the fact that he seems like their sort of PM.

That was more Truss.

The evidence is some Remainers have gone back to the Tories under Sunak, especially those who were voting LD. He has also gained a few voters lost to Labour. He also has improved the Tory rating in London, Scotland and the Bluewall.

Boris does better with Leavers than Rishi admittedly, with Sunak leaking more to RefUK

CarlottaVance

Nigelb said:

CarlottaVance said:

MikeSmithson said:

NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

Hope all goes well - just had my Monday op (postponed from December) moved to March.

I hope that's not too serious, Carlotta.

No - thank you for asking - a day case - in line with my previous experience I have confidence the NHS will get the important part right (the operation) it’s the bits either side that can be sub-optimal.

Benpointer

Beibheirli_C said:

DavidL said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Mike said:

Mike said: NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days.

Best of luck Mike

Mike said:

TSE is in charge of the site.

Words that should strike terror into the hearts of all UK politicians as they wonder what Black Swan is queued up in your absence...

Like all sensible readers of PB I am doing an emergency audit of stocking levels in my fall out shelter.

Very wise. I cannot stay long as I am at the checkout in Tesco having purchased all tinned goods in the food aisle. They should make bigger trolleys...

Toilet rolls, don't forget the toilet rolls!

IanB2

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.

Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

9% ?

Yes, 9% insane is about right

There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.

What went wrong?

It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.

The weak spot in the rules is that they are choosing only from Tory MPs

Beibheirli_C

Benpointer said:

Beibheirli_C said:

DavidL said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Mike said:

Mike said: NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days.

Best of luck Mike

Mike said:

TSE is in charge of the site.

Words that should strike terror into the hearts of all UK politicians as they wonder what Black Swan is queued up in your absence...

Like all sensible readers of PB I am doing an emergency audit of stocking levels in my fall out shelter.

Very wise. I cannot stay long as I am at the checkout in Tesco having purchased all tinned goods in the food aisle. They should make bigger trolleys...

Toilet rolls, don't forget the toilet rolls!

Oh cr*p!

DJ41a

Has Jacob Rees-Mogg's proposal of Boris Johnson for Tory chairman been mentioned here? I don't take it at face value, but it must surely be the case that a big battle is going on.

The post has never been vacant for so long before, at least not since 1944 when the info at Wikipedia starts to include the exact day of departure or appointment rather than just the year. Since then, it hasn't been vacant even for as long as a single day. Today is the 4th day since Zahawi left.

What's happening?

Sunak looks like a non-leader. That must be clear to every Tory in the Westminster bubble.

It was only a few months ago that the membership chose the nutter Liz Truss as their leader not because she was a nutter but because she wasn't Sunak.

Mordaunt gets a lot of people taking the mickey out of her, but I can imagine her as the next leader. She'd sweep up the "Help for Heroes" and Arrse.co.uk vote.

She can appear good under pressure. So could Johnson.
Truss, May, Cameron - not so much.

Pro_Rata

MikeSmithson said:

NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

All the best, Mike.

IanB2

MikeSmithson said:

NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

Apart from your prescribed, and initially short, periods of walking and other exercises, you’ll be lying down most of the time and looking for things to do. The challenge with a tablet or phone is getting into a comfortable position for typing - but you’ll certainly be able to do the reading!

Hope all goes well…

JosiasJessop

CarlottaVance said:

Nigelb said:

CarlottaVance said:

MikeSmithson said:

NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

Hope all goes well - just had my Monday op (postponed from December) moved to March.

I hope that's not too serious, Carlotta.

No - thank you for asking - a day case - in line with my previous experience I have confidence the NHS will get the important part right (the operation) it’s the bits either side that can be sub-optimal.

With me, the NHS ****** up the operation *and* the bits on the other side.

Yes, I'm still bitter about that.

good luck to you and OGH.

JosiasJessop

DavidL said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Mike said: NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days.

Best of luck Mike

TSE is in charge of the site.

Words that should strike terror into the hearts of all UK politicians as they wonder what Black Swan is queued up in your absence...

Like all sensible readers of PB I am doing an emergency audit of stocking levels in my fall out shelter.

There are suggestions that Russia is planning a big push for the anniversary of their first second third attack on Ukraine, on the 24th, and it will be *spectacular*. Is TSE in charge of the site then, and will the spectacular be the Russians revealing his latest footwear?

Carnyx

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/02/northern-england-keir-starmer-powerhouse-levelling-up-labour

"Northern England may need to be a self-governing state to truly rise again – but is Starmer ready for that?"

Channelling Uhtred of Bebbanburg ... I bet that chap who founded the Northumberland Party but then went all Scottish Labour and then ScoTory is really cheesed off he didn't stick around longer.

beinndearg

DJ41a said:

Has Jacob Rees-Mogg's proposal of Boris Johnson for Tory chairman been mentioned here? I don't take it at face value, but it must surely be the case that a big battle is going on.

The post has never been vacant for so long before, at least not since 1944 when the info at Wikipedia starts to include the exact day of departure or appointment rather than just the year. Since then, it hasn't been vacant even for as long as a single day. Today is the 4th day since Zahawi left.

What's happening?

Sunak looks like a non-leader. That must be clear to every Tory in the Westminster bubble.

It was only a few months ago that the membership chose the nutter Liz Truss as their leader not because she was a nutter but because she wasn't Sunak.

Mordaunt gets a lot of people taking the mickey out of her, but I can imagine her as the next leader. She'd sweep up the "Help for Heroes" and Arrse.co.uk vote.

She can appear good under pressure. So could Johnson.
Truss, May, Cameron - not so much.

You have got recency bias, you think changing leader as often as you change the sheets is the new normal. Nobody reckons Beloeites, sure, but we are where we are.

Theuniondivvie

CarlottaVance said:

MikeSmithson said:

NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

Hope all goes well - just had my Monday op (postponed from December) moved to March.

I recall that a couple of posters have recently classified you as ‘he’, any connection?

Good luck to OGH.

boulay

beinndearg said:

DJ41a said:

Has Jacob Rees-Mogg's proposal of Boris Johnson for Tory chairman been mentioned here? I don't take it at face value, but it must surely be the case that a big battle is going on.

The post has never been vacant for so long before, at least not since 1944 when the info at Wikipedia starts to include the exact day of departure or appointment rather than just the year. Since then, it hasn't been vacant even for as long as a single day. Today is the 4th day since Zahawi left.

What's happening?

Sunak looks like a non-leader. That must be clear to every Tory in the Westminster bubble.

It was only a few months ago that the membership chose the nutter Liz Truss as their leader not because she was a nutter but because she wasn't Sunak.

Mordaunt gets a lot of people taking the mickey out of her, but I can imagine her as the next leader. She'd sweep up the "Help for Heroes" and Arrse.co.uk vote.

She can appear good under pressure. So could Johnson.
Truss, May, Cameron - not so much.

You have got recency bias, you think changing leader as often as you change the sheets is the new normal. Nobody reckons Beloeites, sure, but we are where we are.

Isn’t he a Trantite?

beinndearg

Theuniondivvie said:

CarlottaVance said:

MikeSmithson said:

NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

Hope all goes well - just had my Monday op (postponed from December) moved to March.

I recall that a couple of posters have recently classified you as ‘he’, any connection?

Good luck to OGH.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinner_at_Eight_(1933_film)

I am not a mountain, either. I think it is reasonably well established that this CV is cis male.

BartholomewRoberts

MikeSmithson said:

NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

Best wishes for your spinal surgery and a swift recovery Mike.

Luckyguy1983

Benpointer said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Nigelb said:

.

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.

Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

9% ?

Yes, 9% insane is about right

There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.

What went wrong?

It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.

Any remaining shred of electoral credibility, too, apparently.

Meh. The people urging hanging on to Rishi and accepting defeat for the sake of dignity seem to be the same people who were urging the defenestration of Truss (and vice versa I admit).

When Truss was leader the Tories were heading for 0 to 50 MPs

Rishi has at least got them to 100 to 150 MPs, 250 MPs if you believe Deltapoll

He doesn't appeal to floating voters.
He doesn't appeal to core voters.
He doesn't enthuse members and activists.
He doesn't appeal to Brexit supporters.
He doesn't appeal to Remain supporters.
He seems to appeal to a small subset of PB posters, most of whom won't vote for him, who like the fact that he seems like their sort of PM.

Who would you like to see replace him Lucky?

I'd quite like Andrea Leadsom. But OK with Penny, Steve Barker, Steve Baker, or Geoffrey Cox. A white man taking over would however get slaughtered in the press for being a gammon displacing our first Hindu PM. A lady from an ethnic minority would fare better in that regard, and I really like Kemi but I feel she's still a little wet behind the ears. That leaves Priti Patel who is nowhere without a base and Suella Braverman who is still struggling with the boats, and who is a more divisive figure. Leadsom doesn't have a base either, but she has a strong partnership with Penny, and I feel like its Leadsom's turn - Penny has failed twice now.

What I really want is for the new leader to employ every bit of talent and experience in their cabinet and stop it being so factional. It is about the team a lot more than about the individual.

beinndearg

boulay said:

beinndearg said:

DJ41a said:

Has Jacob Rees-Mogg's proposal of Boris Johnson for Tory chairman been mentioned here? I don't take it at face value, but it must surely be the case that a big battle is going on.

The post has never been vacant for so long before, at least not since 1944 when the info at Wikipedia starts to include the exact day of departure or appointment rather than just the year. Since then, it hasn't been vacant even for as long as a single day. Today is the 4th day since Zahawi left.

What's happening?

Sunak looks like a non-leader. That must be clear to every Tory in the Westminster bubble.

It was only a few months ago that the membership chose the nutter Liz Truss as their leader not because she was a nutter but because she wasn't Sunak.

Mordaunt gets a lot of people taking the mickey out of her, but I can imagine her as the next leader. She'd sweep up the "Help for Heroes" and Arrse.co.uk vote.

She can appear good under pressure. So could Johnson.
Truss, May, Cameron - not so much.

You have got recency bias, you think changing leader as often as you change the sheets is the new normal. Nobody reckons Beloeites, sure, but we are where we are.

Isn’t he a Trantite?

That only makes my point the stronger, m'lud. Beloes at least had KP on its doorstep up to now, but they seem to have got PP for a new house there now.

DougSeal

Luckyguy1983 said:

Benpointer said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Nigelb said:

.

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.

Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

9% ?

Yes, 9% insane is about right

There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.

What went wrong?

It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.

Any remaining shred of electoral credibility, too, apparently.

Meh. The people urging hanging on to Rishi and accepting defeat for the sake of dignity seem to be the same people who were urging the defenestration of Truss (and vice versa I admit).

When Truss was leader the Tories were heading for 0 to 50 MPs

Rishi has at least got them to 100 to 150 MPs, 250 MPs if you believe Deltapoll

He doesn't appeal to floating voters.
He doesn't appeal to core voters.
He doesn't enthuse members and activists.
He doesn't appeal to Brexit supporters.
He doesn't appeal to Remain supporters.
He seems to appeal to a small subset of PB posters, most of whom won't vote for him, who like the fact that he seems like their sort of PM.

Who would you like to see replace him Lucky?

I'd quite like Andrea Leadsom. But OK with Penny, Steve Barker, Steve Baker, or Geoffrey Cox. A white man taking over would however get slaughtered in the press for being a gammon displacing our first Hindu PM. A lady from an ethnic minority would fare better in that regard, and I really like Kemi but I feel she's still a little wet behind the ears. That leaves Priti Patel who is nowhere without a base and Suella Braverman who is still struggling with the boats, and who is a more divisive figure. Leadsom doesn't have a base either, but she has a strong partnership with Penny, and I feel like its Leadsom's turn - Penny has failed twice now.

What I really want is for the new leader to employ every bit of talent and experience in their cabinet and stop it being so factional. It is about the team a lot more than about the individual.

Truss. It has to be, and is going to be, Truss. Anyone who thinks otherwise is deluded. She’s wargamed all of this.

Luckyguy1983

DJ41a said:

Has Jacob Rees-Mogg's proposal of Boris Johnson for Tory chairman been mentioned here? I don't take it at face value, but it must surely be the case that a big battle is going on.

The post has never been vacant for so long before, at least not since 1944 when the info at Wikipedia starts to include the exact day of departure or appointment rather than just the year. Since then, it hasn't been vacant even for as long as a single day. Today is the 4th day since Zahawi left.

What's happening?

Sunak looks like a non-leader. That must be clear to every Tory in the Westminster bubble.

It was only a few months ago that the membership chose the nutter Liz Truss as their leader not because she was a nutter but because she wasn't Sunak.

Mordaunt gets a lot of people taking the mickey out of her, but I can imagine her as the next leader. She'd sweep up the "Help for Heroes" and Arrse.co.uk vote.

She can appear good under pressure. So could Johnson.
Truss, May, Cameron - not so much.

Mogg didn't propose it - I think an interviewer suggested it, and he complimented Boris and said 'he has all the right qualities b...' and GBnews made a story out of it.

Anabobazina

Driver said:

The time value of money is the only thing that stops this being a massive lay.

Yup.

Yet another PB Not Happening Event, along with a worldwide house price crash to 20% of its value, the Bakerloo line shutting down, and Josias Jessop running 17 ultramarathons barefoot in the next four days.

MoonRabbit

MikeSmithson said:

NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

I was going to type something sharp and witty, but didn’t know if you would be cut up about it.

So I will just wish you best of luck and success 💜

boulay

beinndearg said:

boulay said:

beinndearg said:

DJ41a said:

Has Jacob Rees-Mogg's proposal of Boris Johnson for Tory chairman been mentioned here? I don't take it at face value, but it must surely be the case that a big battle is going on.

The post has never been vacant for so long before, at least not since 1944 when the info at Wikipedia starts to include the exact day of departure or appointment rather than just the year. Since then, it hasn't been vacant even for as long as a single day. Today is the 4th day since Zahawi left.

What's happening?

Sunak looks like a non-leader. That must be clear to every Tory in the Westminster bubble.

It was only a few months ago that the membership chose the nutter Liz Truss as their leader not because she was a nutter but because she wasn't Sunak.

Mordaunt gets a lot of people taking the mickey out of her, but I can imagine her as the next leader. She'd sweep up the "Help for Heroes" and Arrse.co.uk vote.

She can appear good under pressure. So could Johnson.
Truss, May, Cameron - not so much.

You have got recency bias, you think changing leader as often as you change the sheets is the new normal. Nobody reckons Beloeites, sure, but we are where we are.

Isn’t he a Trantite?

That only makes my point the stronger, m'lud. Beloes at least had KP on its doorstep up to now, but they seem to have got PP for a new house there now.

That’s disgraceful - there’s a perfectly good and large ex nursing home for sale up the road from there for about £5m without having to build on KP.

Being a Trantite though explains his lack of dash and verve though, a characteristic of Commoner Block residents.

beinndearg

boulay said:

beinndearg said:

boulay said:

beinndearg said:

DJ41a said:

Has Jacob Rees-Mogg's proposal of Boris Johnson for Tory chairman been mentioned here? I don't take it at face value, but it must surely be the case that a big battle is going on.

The post has never been vacant for so long before, at least not since 1944 when the info at Wikipedia starts to include the exact day of departure or appointment rather than just the year. Since then, it hasn't been vacant even for as long as a single day. Today is the 4th day since Zahawi left.

What's happening?

Sunak looks like a non-leader. That must be clear to every Tory in the Westminster bubble.

It was only a few months ago that the membership chose the nutter Liz Truss as their leader not because she was a nutter but because she wasn't Sunak.

Mordaunt gets a lot of people taking the mickey out of her, but I can imagine her as the next leader. She'd sweep up the "Help for Heroes" and Arrse.co.uk vote.

She can appear good under pressure. So could Johnson.
Truss, May, Cameron - not so much.

You have got recency bias, you think changing leader as often as you change the sheets is the new normal. Nobody reckons Beloeites, sure, but we are where we are.

Isn’t he a Trantite?

That only makes my point the stronger, m'lud. Beloes at least had KP on its doorstep up to now, but they seem to have got PP for a new house there now.

That’s disgraceful - there’s a perfectly good and large ex nursing home for sale up the road from there for about £5m without having to build on KP.

Being a Trantite though explains his lack of dash and verve though, a characteristic of Commoner Block residents.

OTH for ever.

viewcode

MikeSmithson said:

NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

Good day @MikeSmithson
I would normally wish you luck backstage but I don't know if you read there, so I'll do it here. Good luck for the op and I'm sure it'll turn out OK.

OldKingCole

MikeSmithson said:

NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

Best wishes Mike. Sincerely hope your result is like my first one; total recovery, and not like my second from which I’m very, very slowly recovering.

JosiasJessop

Anabobazina said:

Driver said:

The time value of money is the only thing that stops this being a massive lay.

Yup.

Yet another PB Not Happening Event, along with a worldwide house price crash to 20% of its value, the Bakerloo line shutting down, and Josias Jessop running 17 ultramarathons barefoot in the next four days.

Fuck me (*). An ultramarathon is impossible. 17? Ultraimpossible . Barefoot? Can you imagine the stink? Miles of England would be a wasteland...

(*) Not a genuine offer.

Beibheirli_C

DougSeal said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Benpointer said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Nigelb said:

.

Luckyguy1983 said:

ydoethur said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

Even 9% is an over-estimate.

If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.

That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.

Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.

The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.

9% ?

Yes, 9% insane is about right

There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.

What went wrong?

It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.

Any remaining shred of electoral credibility, too, apparently.

Meh. The people urging hanging on to Rishi and accepting defeat for the sake of dignity seem to be the same people who were urging the defenestration of Truss (and vice versa I admit).

When Truss was leader the Tories were heading for 0 to 50 MPs

Rishi has at least got them to 100 to 150 MPs, 250 MPs if you believe Deltapoll

He doesn't appeal to floating voters.
He doesn't appeal to core voters.
He doesn't enthuse members and activists.
He doesn't appeal to Brexit supporters.
He doesn't appeal to Remain supporters.
He seems to appeal to a small subset of PB posters, most of whom won't vote for him, who like the fact that he seems like their sort of PM.

Who would you like to see replace him Lucky?

I'd quite like Andrea Leadsom. But OK with Penny, Steve Barker, Steve Baker, or Geoffrey Cox. A white man taking over would however get slaughtered in the press for being a gammon displacing our first Hindu PM. A lady from an ethnic minority would fare better in that regard, and I really like Kemi but I feel she's still a little wet behind the ears. That leaves Priti Patel who is nowhere without a base and Suella Braverman who is still struggling with the boats, and who is a more divisive figure. Leadsom doesn't have a base either, but she has a strong partnership with Penny, and I feel like its Leadsom's turn - Penny has failed twice now.

What I really want is for the new leader to employ every bit of talent and experience in their cabinet and stop it being so factional. It is about the team a lot more than about the individual.

Truss. It has to be, and is going to be, Truss. Anyone who thinks otherwise is deluded. She’s wargamed all of this.

Has she been seen buying a new hat for when she next sits astride a battle tank?

SandyRentool

MikeSmithson said:

NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

Best wishes Mike.

There's always the bed baths to look forward to.

dixiedean

Best of luck Mike with the op.
Thanks for the site.

Razedabode

The Tories deserve extinction if they think of bringing back Truss

ydoethur

Razedabode said:

The Tories deserve extinction if they think of bringing back Truss

I'm coming to the conclusion those seven last words are superfluous.

Omnium

Razedabode said:

The Tories deserve extinction if they think of bringing back Truss

Think and bringing back Truss are mutually exclusive.

MoonRabbit

SandyRentool said:

MikeSmithson said:

NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

Best wishes Mike.

There's always the bed baths to look forward to.

Last time I had surgery the anesthesiologist gave me choice of gas or boat paddle...
It was an ether/oar decision.

ydoethur

MoonRabbit said:

SandyRentool said:

MikeSmithson said:

NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.

Best wishes Mike.

There's always the bed baths to look forward to.

Last time I had surgery the anesthesiologist gave me choice of gas or boat paddle...
It was an ether/oar decision.

The second was no laughing matter.

Stuartinromford

ydoethur said:

Razedabode said:

The Tories deserve extinction if they think of bringing back Truss

I'm coming to the conclusion those seven last words are superfluous.

In some cases, even extinction is generous, for extinction implies oblivion.

In my more vindictive moments, I want a brain and in a jar arrangement like in the Roald Dahl story...