BoJo a 9% betting chance to be CON leader at the election – politicalbetting.com
BoJo a 9% betting chance to be CON leader at the election – politicalbetting.com
This is a betting market that I’ve not looked at before and it is very difficult to argue that the current odds are wrong.
Comments
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POBJWAS!2
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File under ne va pas se passer.0
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Even 9% is an over-estimate.
If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
3 -
Really?
If Sunak went under a bus, who would be favourite?3 -
... to have pushed him? I just can't think.dixiedean said:Really?
If Sunak went under a bus, who would be favourite...5 -
Con leader is an appropriate title for the lying Fat Clown3
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The time value of money is the only thing that stops this being a massive lay.3
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Rather sell than buy this one. 5% tops imo.0
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Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.Foxy said:
That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.IanB2 said:Even 9% is an over-estimate.
If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.
9% ?
Yes, 9% insane is about right4 -
Given he is the size of a borrower, he would just walk out from under the other side....dixiedean said:Really?
If Sunak went under a bus, who would be favourite?4 -
9% insane is probably an underestimate. But he was 'persuaded' by some mix of promises and threats not to stand the last time, despite apparently having the nominations, and - certainly this side of the inquiry into him completing - he'll be similarly persuaded the next time, if he is foolish enough to go for it again.Peter_the_Punter said:
Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.Foxy said:
That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.IanB2 said:Even 9% is an over-estimate.
If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.
9% ?
Yes, 9% insane is about right
He's on the warpath but, remembering how childish he is, my view is that he just wants Sunak to have a hard time - and make sure he doesn't succeed - and doesn't care about anything else, whether policy or party.0 -
Which sums the Conservative Party up just now.HYUFD said:
Steve Barclay now probably.dixiedean said:Really?
If Sunak went under a bus, who would be favourite?
However Sunak likely stays until the next general election, Johnson doesn't have the majority of Tory MPs behind him he needs to remove Sunak in a VONC
I'm a politics geek and I struggle to create a mental picture of him.
Or think of a notable thing he's done.
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Spookily I am drinking White Cap in Nairobi airport departures in pretty much exactly the spot I was in 2006 when the Prescott secretary wardrobe thing was breakingIanB2 said:0 -
He was Chancellor for a couple of years and the first Hindu to be Prim...oh, you mean Barclay?dixiedean said:
Which sums the Conservative Party up just now.HYUFD said:
Steve Barclay now probably.dixiedean said:Really?
If Sunak went under a bus, who would be favourite?
However Sunak likely stays until the next general election, Johnson doesn't have the majority of Tory MPs behind him he needs to remove Sunak in a VONC
I'm a politics geek and I struggle to create a mental picture of him.
Or think of a notable thing he's done.0 -
His claim to fame was to vote againts the Governments Brexit policy.......whilst Brexit minister. Back in the long forgotten days of 2019 that was quite shocking rather than the triviality the Tories have now made such ridiculous behaviour.dixiedean said:
Which sums the Conservative Party up just now.HYUFD said:
Steve Barclay now probably.dixiedean said:Really?
If Sunak went under a bus, who would be favourite?
However Sunak likely stays until the next general election, Johnson doesn't have the majority of Tory MPs behind him he needs to remove Sunak in a VONC
I'm a politics geek and I struggle to create a mental picture of him.
Or think of a notable thing he's done.0 -
Boris is definitely giving himself a very high profile at the moment. I don't relish him returning to power - the only positive might be the urgency with which he would need to show economic growth and tangible progress on the issues of the day to avoid a drubbing at the election and going right back to square one.0
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There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.Peter_the_Punter said:
Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.Foxy said:
That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.IanB2 said:Even 9% is an over-estimate.
If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.
9% ?
Yes, 9% insane is about right
What went wrong?0 -
All charges dropped against Mason Greenwood. I mean, blimey.0
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a) He needs to be, and misses being, the centre of attention;Luckyguy1983 said:Boris is definitely giving himself a very high profile at the moment. I don't relish him returning to power - the only positive might be the urgency with which he would need to show economic growth and tangible progress on the issues of the day to avoid a drubbing at the election and going right back to square one.
b) He hates Rishi for being the first (second) big hitter to come out against him, and wants Rishi to fail;
c) He fears anyone following him who might show him up by clearing up any of his mess.0 -
The bus driver?dixiedean said:Really?
If Sunak went under a bus, who would be favourite?4 -
Brexit, the swivel eyed loons, the opportunists and the ideological.ydoethur said:
There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.Peter_the_Punter said:
Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.Foxy said:
That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.IanB2 said:Even 9% is an over-estimate.
If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.
9% ?
Yes, 9% insane is about right
What went wrong?0 -
@Savanta_UK: "On current polling, Labour will be strolling into Downing Street at the next election; the only question, at this… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/16211920027285913630
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a) Yes.IanB2 said:
a) He needs to be, and misses being, the centre of attention;Luckyguy1983 said:Boris is definitely giving himself a very high profile at the moment. I don't relish him returning to power - the only positive might be the urgency with which he would need to show economic growth and tangible progress on the issues of the day to avoid a drubbing at the election and going right back to square one.
b) He hates Rishi for being the first (second) big hitter to come out against him, and wants Rishi to fail;
c) He fears anyone following him who might show him up by clearing up any of his mess.
b) Possibly.
c) You think Rishi is clearing up messes? 'It's a view'0 -
You know, if it gets to the middle of next year and the Tories are so desperate that they think their shining star Boris can be parachuted back in and all will be forgiven, I can actually see the upsides.
Let the man lose them an election at the helm. Break the spell. Otherwise we might get a Boris myth that all would have been fine if they just hadn’t axed him in the first place.0 -
The Corn Laws?ydoethur said:
There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.Peter_the_Punter said:
Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.Foxy said:
That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.IanB2 said:Even 9% is an over-estimate.
If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.
9% ?
Yes, 9% insane is about right
What went wrong?1 -
It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.ydoethur said:
There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.Peter_the_Punter said:
Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.Foxy said:
That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.IanB2 said:Even 9% is an over-estimate.
If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.
9% ?
Yes, 9% insane is about right
What went wrong?0 -
Nah, pragmatic would have been a Swiss-style deal with the EU following Brexit.Luckyguy1983 said:
It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.ydoethur said:
There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.Peter_the_Punter said:
Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.Foxy said:
That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.IanB2 said:Even 9% is an over-estimate.
If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.
9% ?
Yes, 9% insane is about right
What went wrong?0 -
.
With this lot, it's the Con Laws.Benpointer said:
The Corn Laws?ydoethur said:
There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.Peter_the_Punter said:
Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.Foxy said:
That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.IanB2 said:Even 9% is an over-estimate.
If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.
9% ?
Yes, 9% insane is about right
What went wrong?3 -
Interesting from the Swiss.
Mainstream Swiss politicians are now calling for the 96 mothballed Swiss Leopard 2 tanks to be sold for as little as one symbolic franc to Poland, Slovakia, and Czechia, replacing the tanks that their governments plan to send to Ukraine - Bloomberg
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/16211938864450641921 -
....point in the electoral cycle, do they still have time to bugger it up?Scott_xP said:@Savanta_UK: "On current polling, Labour will be strolling into Downing Street at the next election; the only question, at this… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1621192002728591363
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...
I wouldn't be against that as a settled deal and compromise. I do think the biggest opportunity lies in a full exit, but Switzerland is a good example of a country realistically working with its neighbours but maintaining its independence and prospering.Benpointer said:
Nah, pragmatic would have been a Swiss-style deal with the EU following Brexit.Luckyguy1983 said:
It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.ydoethur said:
There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.Peter_the_Punter said:
Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.Foxy said:
That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.IanB2 said:Even 9% is an over-estimate.
If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.
9% ?
Yes, 9% insane is about right
What went wrong?
I would add that it does so because its constitution means these matters are decided by the people - apparently most politicians want to take them in.0 -
.
Any remaining shred of electoral credibility, too, apparently.Luckyguy1983 said:
It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.ydoethur said:
There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.Peter_the_Punter said:
Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.Foxy said:
That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.IanB2 said:Even 9% is an over-estimate.
If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.
9% ?
Yes, 9% insane is about right
What went wrong?1 -
It does seem, in defence of the CPS, to be incredibly difficult to get guilty verdicts in rape cases. There was video evidence here - but then, so was there in this case (in Scotland) and still the jury wasn't unanimous in finding a man guilty of rape when he had said he'd done it and felt good about not being caught.DavidL said:All charges dropped against Mason Greenwood. I mean, blimey.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-64248542
But that, in itself, suggests other things are going terribly wrong somewhere. I'm sure @Cyclefree will be far more eloquent and informed than I could be on what and where.1 -
Meh. The people urging hanging on to Rishi and accepting defeat for the sake of dignity seem to be the same people who were urging the defenestration of Truss (and vice versa I admit).Nigelb said:.
Any remaining shred of electoral credibility, too, apparently.Luckyguy1983 said:
It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.ydoethur said:
There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.Peter_the_Punter said:
Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.Foxy said:
That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.IanB2 said:Even 9% is an over-estimate.
If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.
9% ?
Yes, 9% insane is about right
What went wrong?0 -
NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.29
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Plenty of 19th century Tories opposed the 1832 Reform Act too, not just free tradeBenpointer said:
The Corn Laws?ydoethur said:
There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.Peter_the_Punter said:
Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.Foxy said:
That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.IanB2 said:Even 9% is an over-estimate.
If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.
9% ?
Yes, 9% insane is about right
What went wrong?0 -
Good luck with the operation Mike, rest up.MikeSmithson said:NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.
4 -
Would be even more pragmatic not to get the political equivalents of Godzilla and Mothra as leaders before they wrecked the economic and political landscape.Luckyguy1983 said:
It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.ydoethur said:
There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.Peter_the_Punter said:
Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.Foxy said:
That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.IanB2 said:Even 9% is an over-estimate.
If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.
9% ?
Yes, 9% insane is about right
What went wrong?0 -
When Truss was leader the Tories were heading for 0 to 50 MPsLuckyguy1983 said:
Meh. The people urging hanging on to Rishi and accepting defeat for the sake of dignity seem to be the same people who were urging the defenestration of Truss (and vice versa I admit).Nigelb said:.
Any remaining shred of electoral credibility, too, apparently.Luckyguy1983 said:
It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.ydoethur said:
There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.Peter_the_Punter said:
Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.Foxy said:
That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.IanB2 said:Even 9% is an over-estimate.
If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.
9% ?
Yes, 9% insane is about right
What went wrong?
Rishi has at least got them to 100 to 150 MPs, 250 MPs if you believe Deltapoll1 -
I gave that a like - but as a way of expressing good wishes rather than a celebration of your impending (but temporary) absence.MikeSmithson said:NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.
All the best, Mike.
"TSE is in charge" are words to strike fear into the most sanguine.
One up on Al Haigh, though.2 -
Mike said: NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days.
Best of luck Mike
TSE is in charge of the site.
Words that should strike terror into the hearts of all UK politicians as they wonder what Black Swan is queued up in your absence...5 -
Is this as bad as it sounds?
* But new “stocktake” suggests enduring “hit” from shocks such as Brexit, pandemic, & energy shock.. with supply potential of the economy growing just 0.7% a year
Was 1.5% recently, 2.5% pre financial crisis…
Includes new analysis of quicker than expected trade hit from Brexit
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/16211172772559994880 -
Hope it goes smoothly Mike see you back on here soon! 👍MikeSmithson said:NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.
1 -
Best wishes Mike.MikeSmithson said:NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.
1 -
Best of luck with the opMikeSmithson said:NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.
3 -
The attacks took place between December 2017 and February 2018ydoethur said:
It does seem, in defence of the CPS, to be incredibly difficult to get guilty verdicts in rape cases. There was video evidence here - but then, so was there in this case (in Scotland) and still the jury wasn't unanimous in finding a man guilty of rape when he had said he'd done it and felt good about not being caught.DavidL said:All charges dropped against Mason Greenwood. I mean, blimey.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-64248542
But that, in itself, suggests other things are going terribly wrong somewhere. I'm sure @Cyclefree will be far more eloquent and informed than I could be on what and where.
Convicted July 2022. Four and a half years later.
That alone tells a great deal about what's wrong with the criminal justice system.3 -
You're not endearing them to me tbh.HYUFD said:
Plenty of 19th century Tories opposed the 1832 Reform Act too, not just free tradeBenpointer said:
The Corn Laws?ydoethur said:
There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.Peter_the_Punter said:
Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.Foxy said:
That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.IanB2 said:Even 9% is an over-estimate.
If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.
9% ?
Yes, 9% insane is about right
What went wrong?1 -
..
Yes, Faisal Islam is every bit as bad as he sounds.Stuartinromford said:Is this as bad as it sounds?
* But new “stocktake” suggests enduring “hit” from shocks such as Brexit, pandemic, & energy shock.. with supply potential of the economy growing just 0.7% a year
Was 1.5% recently, 2.5% pre financial crisis…
Includes new analysis of quicker than expected trade hit from Brexit
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/16211172772559994882 -
Hope all goes well - just had my Monday op (postponed from December) moved to March.MikeSmithson said:NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.
0 -
No matter how many sheets of fancy party paper they wrap it in, Brexit is still a turd....Stuartinromford said:Is this as bad as it sounds?
* But new “stocktake” suggests enduring “hit” from shocks such as Brexit, pandemic, & energy shock.. with supply potential of the economy growing just 0.7% a year
Was 1.5% recently, 2.5% pre financial crisis…
Includes new analysis of quicker than expected trade hit from Brexit
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/16211172772559994884 -
Best of luck MikeBeibheirli_C said:Mike said: NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days.
TSE is in charge of the site.
Words that should strike terror into the hearts of all UK politicians as they wonder what Black Swan is queued up in your absence...
I notice Mike posted after close of trading, presumably to prevent scurrilous PB'ers selling ahead of the inevitable run on the stock market.6 -
I hope that's not too serious, Carlotta.CarlottaVance said:
Hope all goes well - just had my Monday op (postponed from December) moved to March.MikeSmithson said:NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.
0 -
Obvs you don't need good luck, but good luck anyway.MikeSmithson said:NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.
3 -
He doesn't appeal to floating voters.HYUFD said:
When Truss was leader the Tories were heading for 0 to 50 MPsLuckyguy1983 said:
Meh. The people urging hanging on to Rishi and accepting defeat for the sake of dignity seem to be the same people who were urging the defenestration of Truss (and vice versa I admit).Nigelb said:.
Any remaining shred of electoral credibility, too, apparently.Luckyguy1983 said:
It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.ydoethur said:
There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.Peter_the_Punter said:
Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.Foxy said:
That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.IanB2 said:Even 9% is an over-estimate.
If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.
9% ?
Yes, 9% insane is about right
What went wrong?
Rishi has at least got them to 100 to 150 MPs, 250 MPs if you believe Deltapoll
He doesn't appeal to core voters.
He doesn't enthuse members and activists.
He doesn't appeal to Brexit supporters.
He doesn't appeal to Remain supporters.
He seems to appeal to a small subset of PB posters, most of whom won't vote for him, who like the fact that he seems like their sort of PM.0 -
Who would you like to see replace him Lucky?Luckyguy1983 said:
He doesn't appeal to floating voters.HYUFD said:
When Truss was leader the Tories were heading for 0 to 50 MPsLuckyguy1983 said:
Meh. The people urging hanging on to Rishi and accepting defeat for the sake of dignity seem to be the same people who were urging the defenestration of Truss (and vice versa I admit).Nigelb said:.
Any remaining shred of electoral credibility, too, apparently.Luckyguy1983 said:
It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.ydoethur said:
There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.Peter_the_Punter said:
Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.Foxy said:
That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.IanB2 said:Even 9% is an over-estimate.
If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.
9% ?
Yes, 9% insane is about right
What went wrong?
Rishi has at least got them to 100 to 150 MPs, 250 MPs if you believe Deltapoll
He doesn't appeal to core voters.
He doesn't enthuse members and activists.
He doesn't appeal to Brexit supporters.
He doesn't appeal to Remain supporters.
He seems to appeal to a small subset of PB posters, most of whom won't vote for him, who like the fact that he seems like their sort of PM.0 -
He was convicted though. All you need in Scotland is an absolute majority of the 15 people on the jury, that is 8 for guilty. This kind of evidence is not infrequent in the days of mobile phones. I think some people think it is a form of entrapment and it (wrongly, of course) may make them more hostile to the complainer.ydoethur said:
It does seem, in defence of the CPS, to be incredibly difficult to get guilty verdicts in rape cases. There was video evidence here - but then, so was there in this case (in Scotland) and still the jury wasn't unanimous in finding a man guilty of rape when he had said he'd done it and felt good about not being caught.DavidL said:All charges dropped against Mason Greenwood. I mean, blimey.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-64248542
But that, in itself, suggests other things are going terribly wrong somewhere. I'm sure @Cyclefree will be far more eloquent and informed than I could be on what and where.
But the Greenwood case is exceptional. He will have lost at least £1m in the last year and quite possibly lost the chance to go to a WC with England as well. It will be interesting to see what Man U do next.0 -
If its true, it is very bad. I have real difficulties in seeing how the economy could suffer permanent damage from the likes of Covid or an energy shock though. These are serious but transitory events.Stuartinromford said:Is this as bad as it sounds?
* But new “stocktake” suggests enduring “hit” from shocks such as Brexit, pandemic, & energy shock.. with supply potential of the economy growing just 0.7% a year
Was 1.5% recently, 2.5% pre financial crisis…
Includes new analysis of quicker than expected trade hit from Brexit
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/16211172772559994881 -
Best of luck MikeBeibheirli_C said:Mike said: NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days.
TSE is in charge of the site.
Words that should strike terror into the hearts of all UK politicians as they wonder what Black Swan is queued up in your absence...
Like all sensible readers of PB I am doing an emergency audit of stocking levels in my fall out shelter.5 -
I have the very manSandyRentool said:
The bus driver?dixiedean said:Really?
If Sunak went under a bus, who would be favourite?
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=9ucpfMuM&id=53CD3D6E27A094385A7D764996415C3A8F5255F8&thid=OIP.9ucpfMuMoY8R5sWnxTsbfAHaD4&mediaurl=https://d1ix0byejyn2u7.cloudfront.net/drive/images/uploads/headers/ws_cropper/26_0x160_1200x629_1200x630_bus-boris.jpg&cdnurl=https://th.bing.com/th/id/R.f6e7297ccb8ca18f11e6c5a7c53b1b7c?rik=%2bFVSjzpcQZZJdg&pid=ImgRaw&r=0&exph=630&expw=1200&q=Boris+Driving+a+bus&simid=607995489423347821&FORM=IRPRST&ck=D48AD8C53E8F72E53F70F38771193979&selectedIndex=0&idpp=overlayview&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=01 -
Very wise. I cannot stay long as I am at the checkout in Tesco having purchased all tinned goods in the food aisle. They should make bigger trolleys...DavidL said:
Like all sensible readers of PB I am doing an emergency audit of stocking levels in my fall out shelter.Beibheirli_C said:
Best of luck MikeMike said:Mike said: NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days.
Mike said:TSE is in charge of the site.
Words that should strike terror into the hearts of all UK politicians as they wonder what Black Swan is queued up in your absence...3 -
That was more Truss.Luckyguy1983 said:
He doesn't appeal to floating voters.HYUFD said:
When Truss was leader the Tories were heading for 0 to 50 MPsLuckyguy1983 said:
Meh. The people urging hanging on to Rishi and accepting defeat for the sake of dignity seem to be the same people who were urging the defenestration of Truss (and vice versa I admit).Nigelb said:.
Any remaining shred of electoral credibility, too, apparently.Luckyguy1983 said:
It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.ydoethur said:
There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.Peter_the_Punter said:
Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.Foxy said:
That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.IanB2 said:Even 9% is an over-estimate.
If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.
9% ?
Yes, 9% insane is about right
What went wrong?
Rishi has at least got them to 100 to 150 MPs, 250 MPs if you believe Deltapoll
He doesn't appeal to core voters.
He doesn't enthuse members and activists.
He doesn't appeal to Brexit supporters.
He doesn't appeal to Remain supporters.
He seems to appeal to a small subset of PB posters, most of whom won't vote for him, who like the fact that he seems like their sort of PM.
The evidence is some Remainers have gone back to the Tories under Sunak, especially those who were voting LD. He has also gained a few voters lost to Labour. He also has improved the Tory rating in London, Scotland and the Bluewall.
Boris does better with Leavers than Rishi admittedly, with Sunak leaking more to RefUK
0 -
No - thank you for asking - a day case - in line with my previous experience I have confidence the NHS will get the important part right (the operation) it’s the bits either side that can be sub-optimal.Nigelb said:
I hope that's not too serious, Carlotta.CarlottaVance said:
Hope all goes well - just had my Monday op (postponed from December) moved to March.MikeSmithson said:NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.
2 -
Toilet rolls, don't forget the toilet rolls!Beibheirli_C said:
Very wise. I cannot stay long as I am at the checkout in Tesco having purchased all tinned goods in the food aisle. They should make bigger trolleys...DavidL said:
Like all sensible readers of PB I am doing an emergency audit of stocking levels in my fall out shelter.Beibheirli_C said:
Best of luck MikeMike said:Mike said: NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days.
Mike said:TSE is in charge of the site.
Words that should strike terror into the hearts of all UK politicians as they wonder what Black Swan is queued up in your absence...1 -
The weak spot in the rules is that they are choosing only from Tory MPsLuckyguy1983 said:
It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.ydoethur said:
There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.Peter_the_Punter said:
Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.Foxy said:
That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.IanB2 said:Even 9% is an over-estimate.
If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.
9% ?
Yes, 9% insane is about right
What went wrong?1 -
Oh cr*p!Benpointer said:
Toilet rolls, don't forget the toilet rolls!Beibheirli_C said:
Very wise. I cannot stay long as I am at the checkout in Tesco having purchased all tinned goods in the food aisle. They should make bigger trolleys...DavidL said:
Like all sensible readers of PB I am doing an emergency audit of stocking levels in my fall out shelter.Beibheirli_C said:
Best of luck MikeMike said:Mike said: NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days.
Mike said:TSE is in charge of the site.
Words that should strike terror into the hearts of all UK politicians as they wonder what Black Swan is queued up in your absence...
2 -
Has Jacob Rees-Mogg's proposal of Boris Johnson for Tory chairman been mentioned here? I don't take it at face value, but it must surely be the case that a big battle is going on.
The post has never been vacant for so long before, at least not since 1944 when the info at Wikipedia starts to include the exact day of departure or appointment rather than just the year. Since then, it hasn't been vacant even for as long as a single day. Today is the 4th day since Zahawi left.
What's happening?
Sunak looks like a non-leader. That must be clear to every Tory in the Westminster bubble.
It was only a few months ago that the membership chose the nutter Liz Truss as their leader not because she was a nutter but because she wasn't Sunak.
Mordaunt gets a lot of people taking the mickey out of her, but I can imagine her as the next leader. She'd sweep up the "Help for Heroes" and Arrse.co.uk vote.
She can appear good under pressure. So could Johnson.
Truss, May, Cameron - not so much.1 -
All the best, Mike.MikeSmithson said:NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.
1 -
Apart from your prescribed, and initially short, periods of walking and other exercises, you’ll be lying down most of the time and looking for things to do. The challenge with a tablet or phone is getting into a comfortable position for typing - but you’ll certainly be able to do the reading!MikeSmithson said:NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.
Hope all goes well…0 -
With me, the NHS ****** up the operation *and* the bits on the other side.CarlottaVance said:
No - thank you for asking - a day case - in line with my previous experience I have confidence the NHS will get the important part right (the operation) it’s the bits either side that can be sub-optimal.Nigelb said:
I hope that's not too serious, Carlotta.CarlottaVance said:
Hope all goes well - just had my Monday op (postponed from December) moved to March.MikeSmithson said:NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.
Yes, I'm still bitter about that.
good luck to you and OGH.0 -
DavidL said:
Best of luck MikeBeibheirli_C said:Mike said: NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days.
TSE is in charge of the site.
Words that should strike terror into the hearts of all UK politicians as they wonder what Black Swan is queued up in your absence...
Like all sensible readers of PB I am doing an emergency audit of stocking levels in my fall out shelter.
There are suggestions that Russia is planning a big push for the anniversary of their first second third attack on Ukraine, on the 24th, and it will be *spectacular*. Is TSE in charge of the site then, and will the spectacular be the Russians revealing his latest footwear?1 -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/02/northern-england-keir-starmer-powerhouse-levelling-up-labour
"Northern England may need to be a self-governing state to truly rise again – but is Starmer ready for that?"
Channelling Uhtred of Bebbanburg ... I bet that chap who founded the Northumberland Party but then went all Scottish Labour and then ScoTory is really cheesed off he didn't stick around longer.1 -
You have got recency bias, you think changing leader as often as you change the sheets is the new normal. Nobody reckons Beloeites, sure, but we are where we are.DJ41a said:Has Jacob Rees-Mogg's proposal of Boris Johnson for Tory chairman been mentioned here? I don't take it at face value, but it must surely be the case that a big battle is going on.
The post has never been vacant for so long before, at least not since 1944 when the info at Wikipedia starts to include the exact day of departure or appointment rather than just the year. Since then, it hasn't been vacant even for as long as a single day. Today is the 4th day since Zahawi left.
What's happening?
Sunak looks like a non-leader. That must be clear to every Tory in the Westminster bubble.
It was only a few months ago that the membership chose the nutter Liz Truss as their leader not because she was a nutter but because she wasn't Sunak.
Mordaunt gets a lot of people taking the mickey out of her, but I can imagine her as the next leader. She'd sweep up the "Help for Heroes" and Arrse.co.uk vote.
She can appear good under pressure. So could Johnson.
Truss, May, Cameron - not so much.0 -
I recall that a couple of posters have recently classified you as ‘he’, any connection?CarlottaVance said:
Hope all goes well - just had my Monday op (postponed from December) moved to March.MikeSmithson said:NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.
Good luck to OGH.
0 -
Isn’t he a Trantite?beinndearg said:
You have got recency bias, you think changing leader as often as you change the sheets is the new normal. Nobody reckons Beloeites, sure, but we are where we are.DJ41a said:Has Jacob Rees-Mogg's proposal of Boris Johnson for Tory chairman been mentioned here? I don't take it at face value, but it must surely be the case that a big battle is going on.
The post has never been vacant for so long before, at least not since 1944 when the info at Wikipedia starts to include the exact day of departure or appointment rather than just the year. Since then, it hasn't been vacant even for as long as a single day. Today is the 4th day since Zahawi left.
What's happening?
Sunak looks like a non-leader. That must be clear to every Tory in the Westminster bubble.
It was only a few months ago that the membership chose the nutter Liz Truss as their leader not because she was a nutter but because she wasn't Sunak.
Mordaunt gets a lot of people taking the mickey out of her, but I can imagine her as the next leader. She'd sweep up the "Help for Heroes" and Arrse.co.uk vote.
She can appear good under pressure. So could Johnson.
Truss, May, Cameron - not so much.0 -
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinner_at_Eight_(1933_film)Theuniondivvie said:
I recall that a couple of posters have recently classified you as ‘he’, any connection?CarlottaVance said:
Hope all goes well - just had my Monday op (postponed from December) moved to March.MikeSmithson said:NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.
Good luck to OGH.
I am not a mountain, either. I think it is reasonably well established that this CV is cis male.0 -
Best wishes for your spinal surgery and a swift recovery Mike.MikeSmithson said:NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.
0 -
I'd quite like Andrea Leadsom. But OK with Penny, Steve Barker, Steve Baker, or Geoffrey Cox. A white man taking over would however get slaughtered in the press for being a gammon displacing our first Hindu PM. A lady from an ethnic minority would fare better in that regard, and I really like Kemi but I feel she's still a little wet behind the ears. That leaves Priti Patel who is nowhere without a base and Suella Braverman who is still struggling with the boats, and who is a more divisive figure. Leadsom doesn't have a base either, but she has a strong partnership with Penny, and I feel like its Leadsom's turn - Penny has failed twice now.Benpointer said:
Who would you like to see replace him Lucky?Luckyguy1983 said:
He doesn't appeal to floating voters.HYUFD said:
When Truss was leader the Tories were heading for 0 to 50 MPsLuckyguy1983 said:
Meh. The people urging hanging on to Rishi and accepting defeat for the sake of dignity seem to be the same people who were urging the defenestration of Truss (and vice versa I admit).Nigelb said:.
Any remaining shred of electoral credibility, too, apparently.Luckyguy1983 said:
It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.ydoethur said:
There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.Peter_the_Punter said:
Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.Foxy said:
That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.IanB2 said:Even 9% is an over-estimate.
If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.
9% ?
Yes, 9% insane is about right
What went wrong?
Rishi has at least got them to 100 to 150 MPs, 250 MPs if you believe Deltapoll
He doesn't appeal to core voters.
He doesn't enthuse members and activists.
He doesn't appeal to Brexit supporters.
He doesn't appeal to Remain supporters.
He seems to appeal to a small subset of PB posters, most of whom won't vote for him, who like the fact that he seems like their sort of PM.
What I really want is for the new leader to employ every bit of talent and experience in their cabinet and stop it being so factional. It is about the team a lot more than about the individual.0 -
That only makes my point the stronger, m'lud. Beloes at least had KP on its doorstep up to now, but they seem to have got PP for a new house there now.boulay said:
Isn’t he a Trantite?beinndearg said:
You have got recency bias, you think changing leader as often as you change the sheets is the new normal. Nobody reckons Beloeites, sure, but we are where we are.DJ41a said:Has Jacob Rees-Mogg's proposal of Boris Johnson for Tory chairman been mentioned here? I don't take it at face value, but it must surely be the case that a big battle is going on.
The post has never been vacant for so long before, at least not since 1944 when the info at Wikipedia starts to include the exact day of departure or appointment rather than just the year. Since then, it hasn't been vacant even for as long as a single day. Today is the 4th day since Zahawi left.
What's happening?
Sunak looks like a non-leader. That must be clear to every Tory in the Westminster bubble.
It was only a few months ago that the membership chose the nutter Liz Truss as their leader not because she was a nutter but because she wasn't Sunak.
Mordaunt gets a lot of people taking the mickey out of her, but I can imagine her as the next leader. She'd sweep up the "Help for Heroes" and Arrse.co.uk vote.
She can appear good under pressure. So could Johnson.
Truss, May, Cameron - not so much.0 -
Truss. It has to be, and is going to be, Truss. Anyone who thinks otherwise is deluded. She’s wargamed all of this.Luckyguy1983 said:
I'd quite like Andrea Leadsom. But OK with Penny, Steve Barker, Steve Baker, or Geoffrey Cox. A white man taking over would however get slaughtered in the press for being a gammon displacing our first Hindu PM. A lady from an ethnic minority would fare better in that regard, and I really like Kemi but I feel she's still a little wet behind the ears. That leaves Priti Patel who is nowhere without a base and Suella Braverman who is still struggling with the boats, and who is a more divisive figure. Leadsom doesn't have a base either, but she has a strong partnership with Penny, and I feel like its Leadsom's turn - Penny has failed twice now.Benpointer said:
Who would you like to see replace him Lucky?Luckyguy1983 said:
He doesn't appeal to floating voters.HYUFD said:
When Truss was leader the Tories were heading for 0 to 50 MPsLuckyguy1983 said:
Meh. The people urging hanging on to Rishi and accepting defeat for the sake of dignity seem to be the same people who were urging the defenestration of Truss (and vice versa I admit).Nigelb said:.
Any remaining shred of electoral credibility, too, apparently.Luckyguy1983 said:
It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.ydoethur said:
There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.Peter_the_Punter said:
Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.Foxy said:
That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.IanB2 said:Even 9% is an over-estimate.
If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.
9% ?
Yes, 9% insane is about right
What went wrong?
Rishi has at least got them to 100 to 150 MPs, 250 MPs if you believe Deltapoll
He doesn't appeal to core voters.
He doesn't enthuse members and activists.
He doesn't appeal to Brexit supporters.
He doesn't appeal to Remain supporters.
He seems to appeal to a small subset of PB posters, most of whom won't vote for him, who like the fact that he seems like their sort of PM.
What I really want is for the new leader to employ every bit of talent and experience in their cabinet and stop it being so factional. It is about the team a lot more than about the individual.2 -
Mogg didn't propose it - I think an interviewer suggested it, and he complimented Boris and said 'he has all the right qualities b...' and GBnews made a story out of it.DJ41a said:Has Jacob Rees-Mogg's proposal of Boris Johnson for Tory chairman been mentioned here? I don't take it at face value, but it must surely be the case that a big battle is going on.
The post has never been vacant for so long before, at least not since 1944 when the info at Wikipedia starts to include the exact day of departure or appointment rather than just the year. Since then, it hasn't been vacant even for as long as a single day. Today is the 4th day since Zahawi left.
What's happening?
Sunak looks like a non-leader. That must be clear to every Tory in the Westminster bubble.
It was only a few months ago that the membership chose the nutter Liz Truss as their leader not because she was a nutter but because she wasn't Sunak.
Mordaunt gets a lot of people taking the mickey out of her, but I can imagine her as the next leader. She'd sweep up the "Help for Heroes" and Arrse.co.uk vote.
She can appear good under pressure. So could Johnson.
Truss, May, Cameron - not so much.0 -
Yup.Driver said:The time value of money is the only thing that stops this being a massive lay.
Yet another PB Not Happening Event, along with a worldwide house price crash to 20% of its value, the Bakerloo line shutting down, and Josias Jessop running 17 ultramarathons barefoot in the next four days.1 -
I was going to type something sharp and witty, but didn’t know if you would be cut up about it.MikeSmithson said:NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.
So I will just wish you best of luck and success 💜1 -
That’s disgraceful - there’s a perfectly good and large ex nursing home for sale up the road from there for about £5m without having to build on KP.beinndearg said:
That only makes my point the stronger, m'lud. Beloes at least had KP on its doorstep up to now, but they seem to have got PP for a new house there now.boulay said:
Isn’t he a Trantite?beinndearg said:
You have got recency bias, you think changing leader as often as you change the sheets is the new normal. Nobody reckons Beloeites, sure, but we are where we are.DJ41a said:Has Jacob Rees-Mogg's proposal of Boris Johnson for Tory chairman been mentioned here? I don't take it at face value, but it must surely be the case that a big battle is going on.
The post has never been vacant for so long before, at least not since 1944 when the info at Wikipedia starts to include the exact day of departure or appointment rather than just the year. Since then, it hasn't been vacant even for as long as a single day. Today is the 4th day since Zahawi left.
What's happening?
Sunak looks like a non-leader. That must be clear to every Tory in the Westminster bubble.
It was only a few months ago that the membership chose the nutter Liz Truss as their leader not because she was a nutter but because she wasn't Sunak.
Mordaunt gets a lot of people taking the mickey out of her, but I can imagine her as the next leader. She'd sweep up the "Help for Heroes" and Arrse.co.uk vote.
She can appear good under pressure. So could Johnson.
Truss, May, Cameron - not so much.
Being a Trantite though explains his lack of dash and verve though, a characteristic of Commoner Block residents.0 -
OTH for ever.boulay said:
That’s disgraceful - there’s a perfectly good and large ex nursing home for sale up the road from there for about £5m without having to build on KP.beinndearg said:
That only makes my point the stronger, m'lud. Beloes at least had KP on its doorstep up to now, but they seem to have got PP for a new house there now.boulay said:
Isn’t he a Trantite?beinndearg said:
You have got recency bias, you think changing leader as often as you change the sheets is the new normal. Nobody reckons Beloeites, sure, but we are where we are.DJ41a said:Has Jacob Rees-Mogg's proposal of Boris Johnson for Tory chairman been mentioned here? I don't take it at face value, but it must surely be the case that a big battle is going on.
The post has never been vacant for so long before, at least not since 1944 when the info at Wikipedia starts to include the exact day of departure or appointment rather than just the year. Since then, it hasn't been vacant even for as long as a single day. Today is the 4th day since Zahawi left.
What's happening?
Sunak looks like a non-leader. That must be clear to every Tory in the Westminster bubble.
It was only a few months ago that the membership chose the nutter Liz Truss as their leader not because she was a nutter but because she wasn't Sunak.
Mordaunt gets a lot of people taking the mickey out of her, but I can imagine her as the next leader. She'd sweep up the "Help for Heroes" and Arrse.co.uk vote.
She can appear good under pressure. So could Johnson.
Truss, May, Cameron - not so much.
Being a Trantite though explains his lack of dash and verve though, a characteristic of Commoner Block residents.2 -
Good day @MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson said:NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.
I would normally wish you luck backstage but I don't know if you read there, so I'll do it here. Good luck for the op and I'm sure it'll turn out OK.4 -
Best wishes Mike. Sincerely hope your result is like my first one; total recovery, and not like my second from which I’m very, very slowly recovering.MikeSmithson said:NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.
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Fuck me (*). An ultramarathon is impossible. 17? Ultraimpossible . Barefoot? Can you imagine the stink? Miles of England would be a wasteland...Anabobazina said:
Yup.Driver said:The time value of money is the only thing that stops this being a massive lay.
Yet another PB Not Happening Event, along with a worldwide house price crash to 20% of its value, the Bakerloo line shutting down, and Josias Jessop running 17 ultramarathons barefoot in the next four days.
(*) Not a genuine offer.3 -
Has she been seen buying a new hat for when she next sits astride a battle tank?DougSeal said:
Truss. It has to be, and is going to be, Truss. Anyone who thinks otherwise is deluded. She’s wargamed all of this.Luckyguy1983 said:
I'd quite like Andrea Leadsom. But OK with Penny, Steve Barker, Steve Baker, or Geoffrey Cox. A white man taking over would however get slaughtered in the press for being a gammon displacing our first Hindu PM. A lady from an ethnic minority would fare better in that regard, and I really like Kemi but I feel she's still a little wet behind the ears. That leaves Priti Patel who is nowhere without a base and Suella Braverman who is still struggling with the boats, and who is a more divisive figure. Leadsom doesn't have a base either, but she has a strong partnership with Penny, and I feel like its Leadsom's turn - Penny has failed twice now.Benpointer said:
Who would you like to see replace him Lucky?Luckyguy1983 said:
He doesn't appeal to floating voters.HYUFD said:
When Truss was leader the Tories were heading for 0 to 50 MPsLuckyguy1983 said:
Meh. The people urging hanging on to Rishi and accepting defeat for the sake of dignity seem to be the same people who were urging the defenestration of Truss (and vice versa I admit).Nigelb said:.
Any remaining shred of electoral credibility, too, apparently.Luckyguy1983 said:
It has been very pragmatic. It got rid of Boris, got rid of Truss when she self-combusted, and now looks set to ditch Rishi for being a dismal decline manager. Whatever else you call them, you can't say that's not pragmatic. Dignity is overrated.ydoethur said:
There was a time when the Conservative party prided itself on its pragmatism.Peter_the_Punter said:
Foreigners interested in UK politics are understandably baffled by 'the year of the three Prime Ministers'. It makes sense only when you understand the peculiar method by which the Tory Party selects its leader and therefore our PM. You also have to understand the composition of the current Party membership, best achieved by viewing its serried ranks at the Annual Party Conference.Foxy said:
That's as maybe, but a 9% chance of BoJo coming back before the GE depends on the headless chickens of the Tory party rather than the general public.IanB2 said:Even 9% is an over-estimate.
If Sunak can't put an end to the sleaze, restoring the lying clown certainly won't.
The Party would be insane to remove Sunak and replace him with Johnson, but it may just be insane enough.
9% ?
Yes, 9% insane is about right
What went wrong?
Rishi has at least got them to 100 to 150 MPs, 250 MPs if you believe Deltapoll
He doesn't appeal to core voters.
He doesn't enthuse members and activists.
He doesn't appeal to Brexit supporters.
He doesn't appeal to Remain supporters.
He seems to appeal to a small subset of PB posters, most of whom won't vote for him, who like the fact that he seems like their sort of PM.
What I really want is for the new leader to employ every bit of talent and experience in their cabinet and stop it being so factional. It is about the team a lot more than about the individual.0 -
Best wishes Mike.MikeSmithson said:NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.
There's always the bed baths to look forward to.0 -
Best of luck Mike with the op.
Thanks for the site.2 -
The Tories deserve extinction if they think of bringing back Truss0
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I'm coming to the conclusion those seven last words are superfluous.Razedabode said:The Tories deserve extinction if they think of bringing back Truss
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Think and bringing back Truss are mutually exclusive.Razedabode said:The Tories deserve extinction if they think of bringing back Truss
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Last time I had surgery the anesthesiologist gave me choice of gas or boat paddle...SandyRentool said:
Best wishes Mike.MikeSmithson said:NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.
There's always the bed baths to look forward to.
It was an ether/oar decision.6 -
The second was no laughing matter.MoonRabbit said:
Last time I had surgery the anesthesiologist gave me choice of gas or boat paddle...SandyRentool said:
Best wishes Mike.MikeSmithson said:NOTE: Tomorrow I have an operation on my spine at the Luton & Dunstable Hospital and will not be posting on PB for a few days. TSE is in charge of the site.
There's always the bed baths to look forward to.
It was an ether/oar decision.0 -
In some cases, even extinction is generous, for extinction implies oblivion.ydoethur said:
I'm coming to the conclusion those seven last words are superfluous.Razedabode said:The Tories deserve extinction if they think of bringing back Truss
In my more vindictive moments, I want a brain and in a jar arrangement like in the Roald Dahl story...0
