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At what point could Sunak be in trouble? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2023 in General
imageAt what point could Sunak be in trouble? – politicalbetting.com

Today MPs are back at Westminster today and no doubt a big topic of conversation will be the latest polling which shows very little difference compared with what it was before the holidays. The Tories are still in dire territory and if this was repeated at a general election then hundreds of CON MPs would lose their jobs.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,667
    First again?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    2nd in the insomnia chorus.

    Moving against Sunak so soon would be crazy, not least because there is no valid alternative.

    The factions fighting within the Parliamentary Conservative party are doing so because of a lack of a realistic plan to rally round. Sunak lacks the vision, the opportunity or the hinterland of electoral support to produce one at least at the moment. He looks doomed to be the patsy in their defeat.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    edited January 2023
    Several California counties ordered to evacuate as deadly storm weathers on
    Communities including in celebrity enclave of Montecito, Santa Barbara and Santa Cruz told to evacuate as more rain is expected
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/09/california-weather-flooding-storms-heavy-rains-winds

    8in of rain in 24 hours !
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Only a decisive win for Ukraine in the war, followed by something of an economic boom next year, can save Sunak now. Not sure it will be 1997 over again though, Starmer is no Blair, who at this stage in the 1992 Parliament was dominating the news on a daily basis. More likely to be a coalition of some sort.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Prince Harry book day today - I wonder what might be in it?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,753
    Sandpit said:

    Only a decisive win for Ukraine in the war, followed by something of an economic boom next year, can save Sunak now. Not sure it will be 1997 over again though, Starmer is no Blair, who at this stage in the 1992 Parliament was dominating the news on a daily basis. More likely to be a coalition of some sort.

    Labour were also much closer to the Tories in 1997 than they are now - 60 seats behind instead of 160.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,753
    Sandpit said:

    Prince Harry book day today - I wonder what might be in it?

    Unless it involves actually shagging a horse, it’s unlikely that there’ll be anything actually new in it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Sandpit said:

    Prince Harry book day today - I wonder what might be in it?

    Maybe he'll include a dick pic in the colour plates in the centre spread.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,753

    Sandpit said:

    Prince Harry book day today - I wonder what might be in it?

    Maybe he'll include a dick pic in the colour plates in the centre spread.
    is that what he calls a selfie?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Prince Harry book day today - I wonder what might be in it?

    Unless it involves actually shagging a horse, it’s unlikely that there’ll be anything actually new in it.
    That's more his old man's style.


  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Off-topic:

    If you think you've had a bad day: a 300 tonne wagon and transformer toppled over in Slovenia. It's in a rather precarious position.

    https://twitter.com/FlywheelMedia1/status/1612495892858159104/photo/1

    Thomas (in the background) is not impressed. I can't see Sir Toppam Hat, but I bet he's calling it "a cause of confusion and delay!"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,753
    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Prince Harry book day today - I wonder what might be in it?

    Unless it involves actually shagging a horse, it’s unlikely that there’ll be anything actually new in it.
    That's more his old man's style.
    Well, he’s saddled us with her.
  • Nigelb said:

    Several California counties ordered to evacuate as deadly storm weathers on
    Communities including in celebrity enclave of Montecito, Santa Barbara and Santa Cruz told to evacuate as more rain is expected
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/09/california-weather-flooding-storms-heavy-rains-winds

    8in of rain in 24 hours !

    God's judgment on The Book.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Off-topic:

    If you think you've had a bad day: a 300 tonne wagon and transformer toppled over in Slovenia. It's in a rather precarious position.

    https://twitter.com/FlywheelMedia1/status/1612495892858159104/photo/1

    Thomas (in the background) is not impressed. I can't see Sir Toppam Hat, but I bet he's calling it "a cause of confusion and delay!"

    Whoops. It does appear that it fell over in just the right spot though, where there’s a reinforcement to the sea wall.

    Looks like Richard Branson had a night to forget as well, his plane-launched rocket looked okay but didn’t make it’s intended orbit https://twitter.com/DJSnM/status/1612687023600726017

    SpaceX launched another batch of OneWeb satellites successfully, and one never gets tired of watching the F9 first stage come back to Earth! https://twitter.com/DJSnM/status/1612675420494909440
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585
    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Prince Harry book day today - I wonder what might be in it?

    Unless it involves actually shagging a horse, it’s unlikely that there’ll be anything actually new in it.
    That's more his old man's style.


    Ding dong!
  • This could be a point where Sunak could be in trouble.

    Tens of thousands of businesses will be at risk of collapse after the government cut financial support for their energy costs by 85 per cent, business leaders have warned.

    Ministers last night confirmed a maximum support package of £5.5 billion over the 12 months from April, down from an estimated £18 billion over the six months of this winter.

    James Cartlidge, the exchequer secretary to the Treasury, said it was “not sustainable” to continue what was “one of the most generous packages in Europe” at a time when the national debt stood at £2.48 trillion.

    However, the Federation of Small Businesses described the move as “catastrophic”, creating a cliff-edge in support at the end of March and spelling “the beginning of the end for tens of thousands of small businesses, which have been relying on the government energy support to survive this winter”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/reduced-support-on-energy-costs-will-kill-off-small-firms-qt2bqxc5s
  • Feck, Spurs might starting winning things.

    The Qatari owners of Paris Saint-Germain are looking to significantly increase their sports portfolio by investing in a Premier League club.

    Sources claim that recent meetings between Nasser Al-Khelaifi, who is the president of PSG and chairman of Qatar Sports Investments (QSI) as well as beIN Media Group, and Daniel Levy, the executive chairman of Tottenham Hotspur, are part of a broader initiative to expand the Qatari sporting empire off the back of the World Cup.

    Tottenham are denying that any discussions are related to either selling the club outright, the potential sale of a stake in the business or a naming-rights deal for the stadium.

    But The Times understands that a meeting between Al-Khelaifi and Levy at the Fairmont Hotel in Doha during the World Cup was followed by further discussions in London last week.

    An expansion is certainly on the agenda for QSI, whose interests is limited to PSG, a 22 per cent stake in the Portuguese club Braga — acquired for €80 million (about £70.5 million) last October — and the booming sport that is padel tennis.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/psgs-qatari-owners-meet-spurs-chairman-daniel-levy-w78xgl959
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Feck, Spurs might starting winning things.

    The Qatari owners of Paris Saint-Germain are looking to significantly increase their sports portfolio by investing in a Premier League club.

    Sources claim that recent meetings between Nasser Al-Khelaifi, who is the president of PSG and chairman of Qatar Sports Investments (QSI) as well as beIN Media Group, and Daniel Levy, the executive chairman of Tottenham Hotspur, are part of a broader initiative to expand the Qatari sporting empire off the back of the World Cup.

    Tottenham are denying that any discussions are related to either selling the club outright, the potential sale of a stake in the business or a naming-rights deal for the stadium.

    But The Times understands that a meeting between Al-Khelaifi and Levy at the Fairmont Hotel in Doha during the World Cup was followed by further discussions in London last week.

    An expansion is certainly on the agenda for QSI, whose interests is limited to PSG, a 22 per cent stake in the Portuguese club Braga — acquired for €80 million (about £70.5 million) last October — and the booming sport that is padel tennis.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/psgs-qatari-owners-meet-spurs-chairman-daniel-levy-w78xgl959

    There’s a big difference between having money and winning things. Ask the Ferrari F1 team.
  • ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, to blow my own trumpet:

    My thread header attracted 378 comments.

    No.376 was still on topic. Albeit some modest diversions around Ukraine and Britishvolt.

    Is this a record for a non-election thread?

    No, my topology thread was the most on topic thread ever.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/08/14/are-you-a-one-hole-or-two-hole-person/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Only a decisive win for Ukraine in the war, followed by something of an economic boom next year, can save Sunak now. Not sure it will be 1997 over again though, Starmer is no Blair, who at this stage in the 1992 Parliament was dominating the news on a daily basis. More likely to be a coalition of some sort.

    Labour were also much closer to the Tories in 1997 than they are now - 60 seats behind instead of 160.
    I don't set much store by this, though, because voter allegiances are far more fluid these days.

    When they swing, I think they'll swing largely and en-masse.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,753
    edited January 2023

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, to blow my own trumpet:

    My thread header attracted 378 comments.

    No.376 was still on topic. Albeit some modest diversions around Ukraine and Britishvolt.

    Is this a record for a non-election thread?

    No, my topology thread was the most on topic thread ever.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/08/14/are-you-a-one-hole-or-two-hole-person/
    I’ve scrolled through around 100 comments at the end but not found any on straws yet.

    Mind you that might be skewed by Hyufd having a very Hyufd moment about the Russell Group.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,753

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Only a decisive win for Ukraine in the war, followed by something of an economic boom next year, can save Sunak now. Not sure it will be 1997 over again though, Starmer is no Blair, who at this stage in the 1992 Parliament was dominating the news on a daily basis. More likely to be a coalition of some sort.

    Labour were also much closer to the Tories in 1997 than they are now - 60 seats behind instead of 160.
    I don't set much store by this, though, because voter allegiances are far more fluid these days.

    When they swing, I think they'll swing largely and en-masse.
    As Tom Lehrer famously said: we will all go together when we go.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Only a decisive win for Ukraine in the war, followed by something of an economic boom next year, can save Sunak now. Not sure it will be 1997 over again though, Starmer is no Blair, who at this stage in the 1992 Parliament was dominating the news on a daily basis. More likely to be a coalition of some sort.

    Labour were also much closer to the Tories in 1997 than they are now - 60 seats behind instead of 160.
    I don't set much store by this, though, because voter allegiances are far more fluid these days.

    When they swing, I think they'll swing largely and en-masse.
    As Tom Lehrer famously said: we will all go together when we go.
    Nuclear winter for the Tories, then ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,753
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Only a decisive win for Ukraine in the war, followed by something of an economic boom next year, can save Sunak now. Not sure it will be 1997 over again though, Starmer is no Blair, who at this stage in the 1992 Parliament was dominating the news on a daily basis. More likely to be a coalition of some sort.

    Labour were also much closer to the Tories in 1997 than they are now - 60 seats behind instead of 160.
    I don't set much store by this, though, because voter allegiances are far more fluid these days.

    When they swing, I think they'll swing largely and en-masse.
    As Tom Lehrer famously said: we will all go together when we go.
    Nuclear winter for the Tories, then ?
    Well, they deserve to be frozen out for good.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Only a decisive win for Ukraine in the war, followed by something of an economic boom next year, can save Sunak now. Not sure it will be 1997 over again though, Starmer is no Blair, who at this stage in the 1992 Parliament was dominating the news on a daily basis. More likely to be a coalition of some sort.

    Labour were also much closer to the Tories in 1997 than they are now - 60 seats behind instead of 160.
    I don't set much store by this, though, because voter allegiances are far more fluid these days.

    When they swing, I think they'll swing largely and en-masse.
    If the Tories can shoehorn Johnson back into Number 10 it will be a '92 redux. The result will be tighter with Sunak still in position. I can't think of any Tory including the fragrant Penny who captures the zeitgeist quite like BigDog.

    God help us
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, to blow my own trumpet:

    My thread header attracted 378 comments.

    No.376 was still on topic. Albeit some modest diversions around Ukraine and Britishvolt.

    Is this a record for a non-election thread?

    No, my topology thread was the most on topic thread ever.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/08/14/are-you-a-one-hole-or-two-hole-person/
    I’ve scrolled through around 100 comments at the end but not found any on straws yet.

    Mind you that might be skewed by Hyufd having a very Hyufd moment about the Russell Group.
    Damn, I missed that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Only a decisive win for Ukraine in the war, followed by something of an economic boom next year, can save Sunak now. Not sure it will be 1997 over again though, Starmer is no Blair, who at this stage in the 1992 Parliament was dominating the news on a daily basis. More likely to be a coalition of some sort.

    Labour were also much closer to the Tories in 1997 than they are now - 60 seats behind instead of 160.
    I don't set much store by this, though, because voter allegiances are far more fluid these days.

    When they swing, I think they'll swing largely and en-masse.
    If the Tories can shoehorn Johnson back into Number 10 it will be a '92 redux. The result will be tighter with Sunak still in position. I can't think of any Tory including the fragrant Penny who captures the zeitgeist quite like BigDog.

    God help us
    No, he's the geist of zeits past.

    Big old irrelevant dog.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Only a decisive win for Ukraine in the war, followed by something of an economic boom next year, can save Sunak now. Not sure it will be 1997 over again though, Starmer is no Blair, who at this stage in the 1992 Parliament was dominating the news on a daily basis. More likely to be a coalition of some sort.

    Labour were also much closer to the Tories in 1997 than they are now - 60 seats behind instead of 160.
    I don't set much store by this, though, because voter allegiances are far more fluid these days.

    When they swing, I think they'll swing largely and en-masse.
    If the Tories can shoehorn Johnson back into Number 10 it will be a '92 redux. The result will be tighter with Sunak still in position. I can't think of any Tory including the fragrant Penny who captures the zeitgeist quite like BigDog.

    God help us
    Can’t see Johnson coming back. To be more accurate, can’t see Carrie settling for his £150k salary per year as a minister, when he can earn that much per hour on the US rubber chicken circuit.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Only a decisive win for Ukraine in the war, followed by something of an economic boom next year, can save Sunak now. Not sure it will be 1997 over again though, Starmer is no Blair, who at this stage in the 1992 Parliament was dominating the news on a daily basis. More likely to be a coalition of some sort.

    Labour were also much closer to the Tories in 1997 than they are now - 60 seats behind instead of 160.
    I don't set much store by this, though, because voter allegiances are far more fluid these days.

    When they swing, I think they'll swing largely and en-masse.
    If the Tories can shoehorn Johnson back into Number 10 it will be a '92 redux. The result will be tighter with Sunak still in position. I can't think of any Tory including the fragrant Penny who captures the zeitgeist quite like BigDog.

    God help us
    Can’t see Johnson coming back. To be more accurate, can’t see Carrie settling for his £150k salary per year as a minister, when he can earn that much per hour on the US rubber chicken circuit.
    It is the trappings of power they crave.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,056

    Feck, Spurs might starting winning things.

    The Qatari owners of Paris Saint-Germain are looking to significantly increase their sports portfolio by investing in a Premier League club.

    Sources claim that recent meetings between Nasser Al-Khelaifi, who is the president of PSG and chairman of Qatar Sports Investments (QSI) as well as beIN Media Group, and Daniel Levy, the executive chairman of Tottenham Hotspur, are part of a broader initiative to expand the Qatari sporting empire off the back of the World Cup.

    Tottenham are denying that any discussions are related to either selling the club outright, the potential sale of a stake in the business or a naming-rights deal for the stadium.

    But The Times understands that a meeting between Al-Khelaifi and Levy at the Fairmont Hotel in Doha during the World Cup was followed by further discussions in London last week.

    An expansion is certainly on the agenda for QSI, whose interests is limited to PSG, a 22 per cent stake in the Portuguese club Braga — acquired for €80 million (about £70.5 million) last October — and the booming sport that is padel tennis.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/psgs-qatari-owners-meet-spurs-chairman-daniel-levy-w78xgl959

    It can't involve selling the team outright or even a majority stake: you can't have two teams in European competition with the same owner, apparently.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    This could be a point where Sunak could be in trouble.

    Tens of thousands of businesses will be at risk of collapse after the government cut financial support for their energy costs by 85 per cent, business leaders have warned.

    Ministers last night confirmed a maximum support package of £5.5 billion over the 12 months from April, down from an estimated £18 billion over the six months of this winter.

    James Cartlidge, the exchequer secretary to the Treasury, said it was “not sustainable” to continue what was “one of the most generous packages in Europe” at a time when the national debt stood at £2.48 trillion.

    However, the Federation of Small Businesses described the move as “catastrophic”, creating a cliff-edge in support at the end of March and spelling “the beginning of the end for tens of thousands of small businesses, which have been relying on the government energy support to survive this winter”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/reduced-support-on-energy-costs-will-kill-off-small-firms-qt2bqxc5s

    I was somewhat underwhelmed by this package when I was driving home yesterday. A certain tell that it was underwhelming is that it was left to some underling to announce it with not a glimpse of the Chancellor or the PM.
    In rough terms £17bn of support in 6 months became £5bn in 12 months. This produced spectacular sums like, err, £2k for the average pub with most of that support focused on heavy users. Frankly, at that level, they really shouldn't have bothered with a wide ranging scheme at all.

    I am not saying that they should have borrowed billions more to subsidise energy consumption or that Labour's response was even close to coherent (the "sticking plaster" nonsense got old very quickly) but it does show that money remains tight, especially with all these strikes to buy off. Not really seeing where a wave of Rishi popularity is going to come from.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Only a decisive win for Ukraine in the war, followed by something of an economic boom next year, can save Sunak now. Not sure it will be 1997 over again though, Starmer is no Blair, who at this stage in the 1992 Parliament was dominating the news on a daily basis. More likely to be a coalition of some sort.

    Labour were also much closer to the Tories in 1997 than they are now - 60 seats behind instead of 160.
    I don't set much store by this, though, because voter allegiances are far more fluid these days.

    When they swing, I think they'll swing largely and en-masse.
    If the Tories can shoehorn Johnson back into Number 10 it will be a '92 redux. The result will be tighter with Sunak still in position. I can't think of any Tory including the fragrant Penny who captures the zeitgeist quite like BigDog.

    God help us
    Can’t see Johnson coming back. To be more accurate, can’t see Carrie settling for his £150k salary per year as a minister, when he can earn that much per hour on the US rubber chicken circuit.
    If a PM is short of a bob or two there are plenty of willing helpers to assist with the mundanities of life like wallpaper, and Lords Brownlow and Bamford, should willing benefactors be required, have deep pockets should they choose to lavish lifetime gifts on their friends.

    All the adulation, the grandeur, the chauffeurs, the grace and favour homes, are covered courtesy of the grateful taxpaying voter.

    It sounds like a great gig for a profligate, power hungry couple, whoever they may be. One can't scramble the RAF to rescue Afghan hounds when one's income source is speeches to the Coal and Steel Federation of Cleveland Christmas lunch. One can as PM.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Only a decisive win for Ukraine in the war, followed by something of an economic boom next year, can save Sunak now. Not sure it will be 1997 over again though, Starmer is no Blair, who at this stage in the 1992 Parliament was dominating the news on a daily basis. More likely to be a coalition of some sort.

    Labour were also much closer to the Tories in 1997 than they are now - 60 seats behind instead of 160.
    I don't set much store by this, though, because voter allegiances are far more fluid these days.

    When they swing, I think they'll swing largely and en-masse.
    If the Tories can shoehorn Johnson back into Number 10 it will be a '92 redux. The result will be tighter with Sunak still in position. I can't think of any Tory including the fragrant Penny who captures the zeitgeist quite like BigDog.

    God help us
    I don't rule that out and have bet accordingly.

    Boris has a caucus of at least 100 MPs in the party, and quite probably now about 120-130+

    However, Sunak would need to lose a VoNC amongst his own MPs first, or quit, and I think that's where the high hurdle is.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 2,995
    carnforth said:

    Feck, Spurs might starting winning things.

    The Qatari owners of Paris Saint-Germain are looking to significantly increase their sports portfolio by investing in a Premier League club.

    Sources claim that recent meetings between Nasser Al-Khelaifi, who is the president of PSG and chairman of Qatar Sports Investments (QSI) as well as beIN Media Group, and Daniel Levy, the executive chairman of Tottenham Hotspur, are part of a broader initiative to expand the Qatari sporting empire off the back of the World Cup.

    Tottenham are denying that any discussions are related to either selling the club outright, the potential sale of a stake in the business or a naming-rights deal for the stadium.

    But The Times understands that a meeting between Al-Khelaifi and Levy at the Fairmont Hotel in Doha during the World Cup was followed by further discussions in London last week.

    An expansion is certainly on the agenda for QSI, whose interests is limited to PSG, a 22 per cent stake in the Portuguese club Braga — acquired for €80 million (about £70.5 million) last October — and the booming sport that is padel tennis.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/psgs-qatari-owners-meet-spurs-chairman-daniel-levy-w78xgl959

    It can't involve selling the team outright or even a majority stake: you can't have two teams in European competition with the same owner, apparently.
    I don't understand the application of this rule. The absolutely squeaky-clean, definitely-not-a-gangster Marinakis owns both Olympiacos and Forest, both of whom could conceivably play in the same European competition. Would he just have to pick one?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,343
    I think it is unlikely that Sunak will be out before the next GE. Another change in leadership would enforce the sense that Toryism is basically a Marx brothers film.

    The ignored matter, always unfashionable in England especially (Scotland is slightly different) is this. What do the Tories believe. What is their underlying philosophy and ideology. In what ways is this distinct from those of other parties. What consistent principles undergird everything they do.

    Just because foundational philosophy doesn't get discussed in the Mail or on Twitter doesn't mean it doesn't matter. At the moment the lack of this means they can't win the GE as long as they are against a party with some degree of social democrat coherence and party discipline.
  • This could be a point where Sunak could be in trouble.

    Tens of thousands of businesses will be at risk of collapse after the government cut financial support for their energy costs by 85 per cent, business leaders have warned.

    Ministers last night confirmed a maximum support package of £5.5 billion over the 12 months from April, down from an estimated £18 billion over the six months of this winter.

    James Cartlidge, the exchequer secretary to the Treasury, said it was “not sustainable” to continue what was “one of the most generous packages in Europe” at a time when the national debt stood at £2.48 trillion.

    However, the Federation of Small Businesses described the move as “catastrophic”, creating a cliff-edge in support at the end of March and spelling “the beginning of the end for tens of thousands of small businesses, which have been relying on the government energy support to survive this winter”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/reduced-support-on-energy-costs-will-kill-off-small-firms-qt2bqxc5s

    With the big price spike of the summer long gone and the wholesale price of electricity back in its usual place, I can understand the minister's reluctance. But the question is what he intends to do about it - if the input price is low and the output price is business-ending high, someone is making a bucket load of money.

    Happily the Conservative and Unionist Party can be trusted not to make policy judgements based on donations, and never ever favours its corrupt friends.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    edited January 2023
    algarkirk said:

    I think it is unlikely that Sunak will be out before the next GE. Another change in leadership would enforce the sense that Toryism is basically a Marx brothers film.

    The ignored matter, always unfashionable in England especially (Scotland is slightly different) is this. What do the Tories believe. What is their underlying philosophy and ideology. In what ways is this distinct from those of other parties. What consistent principles undergird everything they do.

    Just because foundational philosophy doesn't get discussed in the Mail or on Twitter doesn't mean it doesn't matter. At the moment the lack of this means they can't win the GE as long as they are against a party with some degree of social democrat coherence and party discipline.

    The Marx brothers were talented, professional and amusing.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, to blow my own trumpet:

    My thread header attracted 378 comments.

    No.376 was still on topic. Albeit some modest diversions around Ukraine and Britishvolt.

    Is this a record for a non-election thread?

    No, my topology thread was the most on topic thread ever.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/08/14/are-you-a-one-hole-or-two-hole-person/
    I’ve scrolled through around 100 comments at the end but not found any on straws yet.

    Mind you that might be skewed by Hyufd having a very Hyufd moment about the Russell Group.
    It's always gratifying to see your thread headers have inspired a good debate.

    Sorry I missed it. Back to back at work yesterday, and the same today.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,753
    algarkirk said:

    I think it is unlikely that Sunak will be out before the next GE. Another change in leadership would enforce the sense that Toryism is basically a Marx brothers film.

    If only they were that good. Or at least that funny.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,753

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, to blow my own trumpet:

    My thread header attracted 378 comments.

    No.376 was still on topic. Albeit some modest diversions around Ukraine and Britishvolt.

    Is this a record for a non-election thread?

    No, my topology thread was the most on topic thread ever.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/08/14/are-you-a-one-hole-or-two-hole-person/
    I’ve scrolled through around 100 comments at the end but not found any on straws yet.

    Mind you that might be skewed by Hyufd having a very Hyufd moment about the Russell Group.
    It's always gratifying to see your thread headers have inspired a good debate.

    Sorry I missed it. Back to back at work yesterday, and the same today.
    I assumed you just ignored it, given the topic. Indeed, I even apologised for freezing you out in the comments :smile:

    Hope the back to work is OK and the family aren't exhausting you.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    edited January 2023

    This could be a point where Sunak could be in trouble.

    Tens of thousands of businesses will be at risk of collapse after the government cut financial support for their energy costs by 85 per cent, business leaders have warned.

    Ministers last night confirmed a maximum support package of £5.5 billion over the 12 months from April, down from an estimated £18 billion over the six months of this winter.

    James Cartlidge, the exchequer secretary to the Treasury, said it was “not sustainable” to continue what was “one of the most generous packages in Europe” at a time when the national debt stood at £2.48 trillion.

    However, the Federation of Small Businesses described the move as “catastrophic”, creating a cliff-edge in support at the end of March and spelling “the beginning of the end for tens of thousands of small businesses, which have been relying on the government energy support to survive this winter”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/reduced-support-on-energy-costs-will-kill-off-small-firms-qt2bqxc5s

    Sunak, even if competent and managerial, is likely sunk simply by his in tray.

    I caught a few minutes of Wes Streeting in the chamber ripping Steve Barclay so many new arseholes that Barclay ended up indistinguishable from his own back benches.

    The formula, savage the depth of failure and
    highlight modest Labour proposal that Tory is in absolutely no position to attack (even if nonsensical) will stand good till 2024 and, more importantly will tally with experience out in the country.

    The Tories are heading for below 9m votes at the next election like in 1997, and as then the Con -> DNV route is more important then either direct Con -> Lab or Con -> LD or the not insignificant anti-Corbyn DNV -> Labour. (In 1997 Cons lost 2.3 votes for every Labour vote gained)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,753
    dixiedean said:

    algarkirk said:

    I think it is unlikely that Sunak will be out before the next GE. Another change in leadership would enforce the sense that Toryism is basically a Marx brothers film.

    The ignored matter, always unfashionable in England especially (Scotland is slightly different) is this. What do the Tories believe. What is their underlying philosophy and ideology. In what ways is this distinct from those of other parties. What consistent principles undergird everything they do.

    Just because foundational philosophy doesn't get discussed in the Mail or on Twitter doesn't mean it doesn't matter. At the moment the lack of this means they can't win the GE as long as they are against a party with some degree of social democrat coherence and party discipline.

    The Marx brothers were talented, professional and amusing.
    And financially successful.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    - Grant Shapps, business secretary, claimed just now that minimum service agreement legislation won't lead to more strikes: "No I don't think that's likely"

    - the only problem is that his own government has produced an impact assessment saying the opposite https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1611327460771090435
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 2,995
    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Prince Harry book day today - I wonder what might be in it?

    Unless it involves actually shagging a horse, it’s unlikely that there’ll be anything actually new in it.
    That's more his old man's style.
    Well, he’s saddled us with her.
    That's a rather blinkered view; I guess you made it up on the hoof.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    algarkirk said:

    I think it is unlikely that Sunak will be out before the next GE. Another change in leadership would enforce the sense that Toryism is basically a Marx brothers film.

    The ignored matter, always unfashionable in England especially (Scotland is slightly different) is this. What do the Tories believe. What is their underlying philosophy and ideology. In what ways is this distinct from those of other parties. What consistent principles undergird everything they do.

    Just because foundational philosophy doesn't get discussed in the Mail or on Twitter doesn't mean it doesn't matter. At the moment the lack of this means they can't win the GE as long as they are against a party with some degree of social democrat coherence and party discipline.

    The Marx brothers were talented, professional and amusing.
    And financially successful.
    One of the contenders does bear a passing resemblance to Harpo.
    If somewhat fatter.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,753
    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Prince Harry book day today - I wonder what might be in it?

    Unless it involves actually shagging a horse, it’s unlikely that there’ll be anything actually new in it.
    That's more his old man's style.
    Well, he’s saddled us with her.
    That's a rather blinkered view; I guess you made it up on the hoof.
    Just giving free rein to my punning skills.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,753
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    algarkirk said:

    I think it is unlikely that Sunak will be out before the next GE. Another change in leadership would enforce the sense that Toryism is basically a Marx brothers film.

    The ignored matter, always unfashionable in England especially (Scotland is slightly different) is this. What do the Tories believe. What is their underlying philosophy and ideology. In what ways is this distinct from those of other parties. What consistent principles undergird everything they do.

    Just because foundational philosophy doesn't get discussed in the Mail or on Twitter doesn't mean it doesn't matter. At the moment the lack of this means they can't win the GE as long as they are against a party with some degree of social democrat coherence and party discipline.

    The Marx brothers were talented, professional and amusing.
    And financially successful.
    One of the contenders does bear a passing resemblance to Harpo.
    If somewhat fatter.
    Sunak we might compare to Zeppo. In many ways the most talented of the group but for some undefinable reason doesn't seem to have quite what it takes.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 2,995
    ydoethur said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Prince Harry book day today - I wonder what might be in it?

    Unless it involves actually shagging a horse, it’s unlikely that there’ll be anything actually new in it.
    That's more his old man's style.
    Well, he’s saddled us with her.
    That's a rather blinkered view; I guess you made it up on the hoof.
    Just giving free rein to my punning skills.
    I pray your punular talent never withers.
  • The answer to the topic question is "now" - Sunak is already in trouble. But his saving grace is that the Tories have no clue what they are about any more, and no agreement about what their purpose is beyond the generic 'make our patrons loads of money'.

    Sunak identifies five largely vague goals and says they are the people's priorities - are they even the settled priorities of his own MPs? The urgency behind some of them frothing about the EU Freedoms bill shows that they know their time is short. But many of the MPs who will lose their seat know the "Freedoms" will damage their constituents.

    I can see Sunak surviving towards the next election relatively easily. Yes there will be open warfare against his position but without any real damage being done. Because if they remove Sunak who is the replacement and what do they believe in? He only goes in summer 2024 if they are still an ocean off a lead with a looming wipeout focusing their minds. Then it will be Boris and the only purpose will be survival.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    NEW: Just 8% of people would be “delighted” by a Tory election win, down from a quarter at the last two elections.

    @YouGov poll for @TimesRadio reveals decline in “dismay” at prospect of a Labour win, but not a lot of delight either.

    More on your #TimesRadio 10am https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1612726348031864833/photo/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    ‘Not our lived experience’: Tunbridge Wells leaders rubbish Sunak levelling up boast https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/10/tunbridge-wells-rishi-sunak-levelling-up-boast?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Just 8% of people would be “delighted” by a Tory election win, down from a quarter at the last two elections...

    That's a surprising number of people on Betfair.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    The kiss of Sunak.

    Incredible work has gone into the UK’s first ever launch of an orbital satellite tonight.

    Good luck to the entire team

    https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1612522670184173569

    Has Leondamus passed on the mantle ?
  • DavidL said:

    This could be a point where Sunak could be in trouble.

    Tens of thousands of businesses will be at risk of collapse after the government cut financial support for their energy costs by 85 per cent, business leaders have warned.

    Ministers last night confirmed a maximum support package of £5.5 billion over the 12 months from April, down from an estimated £18 billion over the six months of this winter.

    James Cartlidge, the exchequer secretary to the Treasury, said it was “not sustainable” to continue what was “one of the most generous packages in Europe” at a time when the national debt stood at £2.48 trillion.

    However, the Federation of Small Businesses described the move as “catastrophic”, creating a cliff-edge in support at the end of March and spelling “the beginning of the end for tens of thousands of small businesses, which have been relying on the government energy support to survive this winter”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/reduced-support-on-energy-costs-will-kill-off-small-firms-qt2bqxc5s

    I was somewhat underwhelmed by this package when I was driving home yesterday. A certain tell that it was underwhelming is that it was left to some underling to announce it with not a glimpse of the Chancellor or the PM.
    In rough terms £17bn of support in 6 months became £5bn in 12 months. This produced spectacular sums like, err, £2k for the average pub with most of that support focused on heavy users. Frankly, at that level, they really shouldn't have bothered with a wide ranging scheme at all.

    I am not saying that they should have borrowed billions more to subsidise energy consumption or that Labour's response was even close to coherent (the "sticking plaster" nonsense got old very quickly) but it does show that money remains tight, especially with all these strikes to buy off. Not really seeing where a wave of Rishi popularity is going to come from.
    That's the underlying problem for Team Rishi. Unless he goes full on Devil-may-care, like Truss tried to do, there's not a lot he can do. That's doubly true if he wants any room at all for tax cuts in 2024. Same as the public sector pay squeeze; there is no money left without doing things the PM really really doesn't want to.

    Many of the key decisions- not going so hard in renewables and efficiency (2013?), being unsustainably generous with the 2022/3 winter energy package (Truss interlude), even taking a (temporary in his view) hit on the economy by disrupting our trading arrangements (2016) were taken long ago, in goodish faith. But as with the infrastructure investment squeeze (which Britain has done basically forever), there was always a risk that they would bite us on the bum sometime. And the time is now and the bum is Rishi's.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, to blow my own trumpet:

    My thread header attracted 378 comments.

    No.376 was still on topic. Albeit some modest diversions around Ukraine and Britishvolt.

    Is this a record for a non-election thread?

    No, my topology thread was the most on topic thread ever.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/08/14/are-you-a-one-hole-or-two-hole-person/
    I’ve scrolled through around 100 comments at the end but not found any on straws yet.

    Mind you that might be skewed by Hyufd having a very Hyufd moment about the Russell Group.
    HYUFD’s comments on the Russell Group really weren’t the fabric of that thread. It was all about straws.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,753

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, to blow my own trumpet:

    My thread header attracted 378 comments.

    No.376 was still on topic. Albeit some modest diversions around Ukraine and Britishvolt.

    Is this a record for a non-election thread?

    No, my topology thread was the most on topic thread ever.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/08/14/are-you-a-one-hole-or-two-hole-person/
    I’ve scrolled through around 100 comments at the end but not found any on straws yet.

    Mind you that might be skewed by Hyufd having a very Hyufd moment about the Russell Group.
    HYUFD’s comments on the Russell Group really weren’t the fabric of that thread. It was all about straws.
    Are we talking wattle and daub here?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    LOL. Even Pence is on the grift.

    It looks like Mike Pence's leadership PAC spent $91,000 on copies of his new book in November.

    Putting donor money to good use!

    https://twitter.com/CREWcrew/status/1612118129034891276
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,753
    edited January 2023

    This could be a point where Sunak could be in trouble.

    Tens of thousands of businesses will be at risk of collapse after the government cut financial support for their energy costs by 85 per cent, business leaders have warned.

    Ministers last night confirmed a maximum support package of £5.5 billion over the 12 months from April, down from an estimated £18 billion over the six months of this winter.

    James Cartlidge, the exchequer secretary to the Treasury, said it was “not sustainable” to continue what was “one of the most generous packages in Europe” at a time when the national debt stood at £2.48 trillion.

    However, the Federation of Small Businesses described the move as “catastrophic”, creating a cliff-edge in support at the end of March and spelling “the beginning of the end for tens of thousands of small businesses, which have been relying on the government energy support to survive this winter”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/reduced-support-on-energy-costs-will-kill-off-small-firms-qt2bqxc5s

    With the big price spike of the summer long gone and the wholesale price of electricity back in its usual place, I can understand the minister's reluctance. But the question is what he intends to do about it - if the input price is low and the output price is business-ending high, someone is making a bucket load of money.

    Happily the Conservative and Unionist Party can be trusted not to make policy judgements based on donations, and never ever favours its corrupt friends.
    I think we should rename the government to something that abbreviates better.

    I suggest the Conservative and Unionist Nutty Tory Sect.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Scott_xP said:

    ‘Not our lived experience’: Tunbridge Wells leaders rubbish Sunak levelling up boast https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/10/tunbridge-wells-rishi-sunak-levelling-up-boast?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Not sure what to make of this. I thought his original comments to Tories as reported (gloating that he'd diverted funds back from deprived areas to wealthy areas) were indefensible. It's certainly Waverley's experience too that they weren't actually true to any noticeable extent. I suppose we should be pleased that he was just kidding.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    I think Sunak survives to lose the election because the Tories are now largely resigned to their fate and don't want to go through the trauma of a repeat of the Truss Event.

    Lots of MPs will be putting their time into LinkedIn and work contacts, rather than plotting in the tea room.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739

    I think Sunak survives to lose the election because the Tories are now largely resigned to their fate and don't want to go through the trauma of a repeat of the Truss Event.

    Lots of MPs will be putting their time into LinkedIn and work contacts, rather than plotting in the tea room.

    I don't think that is true of the headbangers, many of whom are in what they think are safe seats.

    Betrayal and plotting are their primary focus
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    edited January 2023

    Sandpit said:

    Prince Harry book day today - I wonder what might be in it?

    Maybe he'll include a dick pic in the colour plates in the centre spread.
    Well, California is the centre of the porn industry.

    I could actually envisage Harry emulating the career of the late “Big” John Holmes.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,753
    Sean_F said:

    Sandpit said:

    Prince Harry book day today - I wonder what might be in it?

    Maybe he'll include a dick pic in the colour plates in the centre spread.
    Well, California is the centre of the porn industry.

    I could actually envisage Harry emulating the career of the late “Big” John Holmes.

    What, passing out every time he gets an erection?

    Albeit because he's triggered not because he has an inadequate blood supply...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    edited January 2023
    Scott_xP said:

    I think Sunak survives to lose the election because the Tories are now largely resigned to their fate and don't want to go through the trauma of a repeat of the Truss Event.

    Lots of MPs will be putting their time into LinkedIn and work contacts, rather than plotting in the tea room.

    I don't think that is true of the headbangers, many of whom are in what they think are safe seats.

    Betrayal and plotting are their primary focus
    Estimates may differ, but I don't think there are enough headbangers to topple Sunak. Enough to keep the Sunday newspapers full, but not to achieve their ends.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Nigelb said:

    LOL. Even Pence is on the grift.

    It looks like Mike Pence's leadership PAC spent $91,000 on copies of his new book in November.

    Putting donor money to good use!

    https://twitter.com/CREWcrew/status/1612118129034891276

    As was discussed on here yesterday, the book market is very weird and easily open to market manipulation to generate headlines.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585
    ...

    Scott_xP said:

    I think Sunak survives to lose the election because the Tories are now largely resigned to their fate and don't want to go through the trauma of a repeat of the Truss Event.

    Lots of MPs will be putting their time into LinkedIn and work contacts, rather than plotting in the tea room.

    I don't think that is true of the headbangers, many of whom are in what they think are safe seats.

    Betrayal and plotting are their primary focus
    Estimates may differ, but I don't think there are enough headbangers to topple Sunak. Enough to keep the Sunday newspapers full, but not to achieve their ends.
    But one doesn't need to be a headbanger. Will Sunak save my seat? No. Will Johnson save my seat? Maybe. Well let's give BigDog another whirl.
  • The NE Seabed disaster linked to dredging of the freeport has the potential to sink Sunak; not the original disaster but the apparent refusal to halt work whilst independent investigations are carried out and seemingly, deliberate misdirection from DEFRA.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    The NE Seabed disaster linked to dredging of the freeport has the potential to sink Sunak; not the original disaster but the apparent refusal to halt work whilst independent investigations are carried out and seemingly, deliberate misdirection from DEFRA.

    It'll all be too complicated with too many people and organisations involved to hang directly on Inaction Man.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,869
    edited January 2023

    ...

    Scott_xP said:

    I think Sunak survives to lose the election because the Tories are now largely resigned to their fate and don't want to go through the trauma of a repeat of the Truss Event.

    Lots of MPs will be putting their time into LinkedIn and work contacts, rather than plotting in the tea room.

    I don't think that is true of the headbangers, many of whom are in what they think are safe seats.

    Betrayal and plotting are their primary focus
    Estimates may differ, but I don't think there are enough headbangers to topple Sunak. Enough to keep the Sunday newspapers full, but not to achieve their ends.
    But one doesn't need to be a headbanger. Will Sunak save my seat? No. Will Johnson save my seat? Maybe. Well let's give BigDog another whirl.
    Sunak’s problem is the Conservative membership who select the headbangers for their seats. They are the same people who chose Truss as their leader. The rest of the electorate has moved away from their ideas, but, until the Conservative leadership can find a way to emasculate their membership, they are doomed to failure.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    Sunak was a sticking plaster on top of a large self-inflicted wound. Underneath the plaster, the wound is still there.
  • ...

    Scott_xP said:

    I think Sunak survives to lose the election because the Tories are now largely resigned to their fate and don't want to go through the trauma of a repeat of the Truss Event.

    Lots of MPs will be putting their time into LinkedIn and work contacts, rather than plotting in the tea room.

    I don't think that is true of the headbangers, many of whom are in what they think are safe seats.

    Betrayal and plotting are their primary focus
    Estimates may differ, but I don't think there are enough headbangers to topple Sunak. Enough to keep the Sunday newspapers full, but not to achieve their ends.
    But one doesn't need to be a headbanger. Will Sunak save my seat? No. Will Johnson save my seat? Maybe. Well let's give BigDog another whirl.
    There will be some MPs thinking like that, but are there enough?

    They'd have to meet three criteria;

    1 Be in a seat that Sunak loses but someone else might save;

    2 Believe that Boris will do better- he has the aura of a winner but objectively isn't all that popular;

    3 Be willing to go through All That Nonsense again.

    There will be some thinking that way, but enough? It's a stretch.

    (Though like you, I won't believe he's politically dead until he's had the equivalent of a lying in state where I can check for myself.)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    edited January 2023

    Scott_xP said:

    I think Sunak survives to lose the election because the Tories are now largely resigned to their fate and don't want to go through the trauma of a repeat of the Truss Event.

    Lots of MPs will be putting their time into LinkedIn and work contacts, rather than plotting in the tea room.

    I don't think that is true of the headbangers, many of whom are in what they think are safe seats.

    Betrayal and plotting are their primary focus
    Estimates may differ, but I don't think there are enough headbangers to topple Sunak. Enough to keep the Sunday newspapers full, but not to achieve their ends.
    But one doesn't need to be a headbanger. Will Sunak save my seat? No. Will Johnson save my seat? Maybe. Well let's give BigDog another whirl.
    Right, but my sense is that many Tory MPs have given up. They recognise that the damage from the Truss Event, and 2022 as a whole, was so large that defeat at the next GE has become an accepted part of the future.

    That's why there was a sudden rush of MPs announcing they weren't standing at the next election. They're working out what they're going to do in 2025 when they aren't MPs any more.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    The NE Seabed disaster linked to dredging of the freeport has the potential to sink Sunak; not the original disaster but the apparent refusal to halt work whilst independent investigations are carried out and seemingly, deliberate misdirection from DEFRA.

    Disaster? Is there a story we all missed?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited January 2023
    Sunak has at least improved the Tory poll ratings that Truss left from about 20 to 25% to 25 to 30% now.

    However under Boris the Tories were polling 30 to 35% before he resigned despite the fact OGH was saying he had to be removed for their rating to be improved.

    So if Sunak is heading for a heavy defeat in the polls before the next election campaign and the Times are still leaking heavily to RefUK and DK then Boris may well be brought back to fight that election campaign
  • Looks like the new anti-strike laws are being tabled today. No other peacetime government has overseen the removal of so many rights and freedoms from UK citizens as this one. After ending our freedom of movement in Europe, making it harder to vote, criminalising peaceful protest and further restricting employees’ ability to organise collectively and withdraw their labour, what will be next? Holiday pay and safety standards at work, I suspect.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Scott_xP said:

    ‘Not our lived experience’: Tunbridge Wells leaders rubbish Sunak levelling up boast https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/10/tunbridge-wells-rishi-sunak-levelling-up-boast?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    You do realise TWBC is now led by the Liberal Democrats?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,624
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    LOL. Even Pence is on the grift.

    It looks like Mike Pence's leadership PAC spent $91,000 on copies of his new book in November.

    Putting donor money to good use!

    https://twitter.com/CREWcrew/status/1612118129034891276

    As was discussed on here yesterday, the book market is very weird and easily open to market manipulation to generate headlines.
    Particularly in the age of digital sales.

    Apparently, it’s not unknown for people to buy large orders of digital books from themselves. This only costs the Amazon (or whatever) tax, since nothing physical is involved.

    The old classic is counting “despatched to book shop” as sold, by the publisher. This is done for political biographies which are “supported” by the publisher - the publisher is actually giving the politician a pile of cash, dressed up as a book deal…
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    HYUFD said:

    Sunak has at least improved the Tory poll ratings still Truss left from about 20 to 25% to 25 to 30% now.

    However under Boris the Tories were polling 30 to 35% before he resigned despite the fact OGH was saying he had to be removed for their rating ti be improved.

    So if Sunak is heading for a heavy defeat in the polls before the next election campaign and the Times are still leaking heavily to RefUK and DK then Boris may well be brought back to fight that election campaign

    I would suggest that you study the graph in the lead more closely?
  • The NE Seabed disaster linked to dredging of the freeport has the potential to sink Sunak; not the original disaster but the apparent refusal to halt work whilst independent investigations are carried out and seemingly, deliberate misdirection from DEFRA.

    Hmmm. The whole NE Freeport thing is a classic in Tory murky practice - see Private Eyes passim. But I don't even see how it sinks Houchen never mind Sunak. Labour would need to make a significant recovery in the May locals for a start. And they are struggling for candidates across Stockton, Middlesbrough and Redcar.

    Having swept past the Tories / Tory "independents" in May they would then need to coalesce around a dynamic candidate for Tees Mayor and basically go at it for a few years. And hire some serious organisers / media people to get past the massive Tory chumocracy which is local news...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,148

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, to blow my own trumpet:

    My thread header attracted 378 comments.

    No.376 was still on topic. Albeit some modest diversions around Ukraine and Britishvolt.

    Is this a record for a non-election thread?

    You would have had a couple more but I was posting from Turkiye and losing WiFi

    It was an excellent header. Several thought provoking notches up from PBs usual educational fare of demands for more grammar schools and bemoaning VAT extensions to private education.
    Seconded. Particularly interesting that different grades/levels don't segue logically into one another. Doesn't say much for the traditional education, complete with calculus, of those responsible.

    And it's insane making all children do calculus when numeracy is more important. OTOH if they are too busy with calculus they can't do numeracy and detect bullshit so easily when they grow up. Which might be the logic behind Mr Sunak's policy.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,148
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ‘Not our lived experience’: Tunbridge Wells leaders rubbish Sunak levelling up boast https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/10/tunbridge-wells-rishi-sunak-levelling-up-boast?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    You do realise TWBC is now led by the Liberal Democrats?
    Oh, so if it were Tories they'd deliberately keep quiet about the truth?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002
    edited January 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Sunak has at least improved the Tory poll ratings still Truss left from about 20 to 25% to 25 to 30% now.

    However under Boris the Tories were polling 30 to 35% before he resigned despite the fact OGH was saying he had to be removed for their rating ti be improved.

    So if Sunak is heading for a heavy defeat in the polls before the next election campaign and the Times are still leaking heavily to RefUK and DK then Boris may well be brought back to fight that election campaign

    You accurately demonstrate why the conservative party is heading for a huge loss in 2024

    Far too many on the right of the party are obsessed with Johnson and utterly fail to understand he is not acceptable to large parts of the country and another leader before the next GE would be insane

    Sunak is not the problem, indeed he is the only conservative who may mitigate 24, but the civil war waging behind Sunak is
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,148
    Sandpit said:

    The NE Seabed disaster linked to dredging of the freeport has the potential to sink Sunak; not the original disaster but the apparent refusal to halt work whilst independent investigations are carried out and seemingly, deliberate misdirection from DEFRA.

    Disaster? Is there a story we all missed?
    1-2 centuries' accumulated toxins in Tees estuary sediment dredged up and dumped offshore - mass mortality of marine life. Fishing industry and conservationists and anglers very, very unhappy, ditto tourist industry.
  • Looks like the new anti-strike laws are being tabled today. No other peacetime government has overseen the removal of so many rights and freedoms from UK citizens as this one. After ending our freedom of movement in Europe, making it harder to vote, criminalising peaceful protest and further restricting employees’ ability to organise collectively and withdraw their labour, what will be next? Holiday pay and safety standards at work, I suspect.

    Apparently the new minimum service levels are widely in place in European countries

    I understand they will apply to ambulance, fire and rail
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257
    Sandpit said:

    Prince Harry book day today - I wonder what might be in it?

    Damn, it comes around quick, doesn't it? All the build up, anticipation.... I hope it doesn't end up a bit of an anticlimax :disappointed: I assume everyone's heading down the pub for the traditional PHBD cougar?

    Anyway... Happy Prince Harry Book Day everyone!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,624
    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    The NE Seabed disaster linked to dredging of the freeport has the potential to sink Sunak; not the original disaster but the apparent refusal to halt work whilst independent investigations are carried out and seemingly, deliberate misdirection from DEFRA.

    Disaster? Is there a story we all missed?
    1-2 centuries' accumulated toxins in Tees estuary sediment dredged up and dumped offshore - mass mortality of marine life. Fishing industry and conservationists and anglers very, very unhappy, ditto tourist industry.
    More exactly - it may not have been in the material removed, but in the material uncovered.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Sandpit said:

    The NE Seabed disaster linked to dredging of the freeport has the potential to sink Sunak; not the original disaster but the apparent refusal to halt work whilst independent investigations are carried out and seemingly, deliberate misdirection from DEFRA.

    Disaster? Is there a story we all missed?
    Was news in papers last year , shedloads of sealife washing up on the shores etc
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    LOL. Even Pence is on the grift.

    It looks like Mike Pence's leadership PAC spent $91,000 on copies of his new book in November.

    Putting donor money to good use!

    https://twitter.com/CREWcrew/status/1612118129034891276

    As was discussed on here yesterday, the book market is very weird and easily open to market manipulation to generate headlines.
    Particularly in the age of digital sales.

    Apparently, it’s not unknown for people to buy large orders of digital books from themselves. This only costs the Amazon (or whatever) tax, since nothing physical is involved.

    The old classic is counting “despatched to book shop” as sold, by the publisher. This is done for political biographies which are “supported” by the publisher - the publisher is actually giving the politician a pile of cash, dressed up as a book deal…
    There’s a really good job for an investigative journalist, to look at the Harry book numbers.

    It has a retail of £28, but both Amazon and Waterstones have been selling it for £14 for months now. If the publisher paid Harry a $20m advance for the book, there’s no way they’re making the money back in sales, and any serialisation in papers has been totally undermined by leaks.

    So, what’s the actual business model here? Because it clearly isn’t selling books, which will be in the six figures worldwide, not close to getting the advance back as far as the publisher s concerned.

    Obama’s memoir sold 1.7m at full price, it’s hard to imagine Harry is going to come anywhere close to that.
    https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/book-deals/article/72949-the-obamas-book-deals-spark-65-million-mystery.html
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    edited January 2023
    Sandpit said:

    The NE Seabed disaster linked to dredging of the freeport has the potential to sink Sunak; not the original disaster but the apparent refusal to halt work whilst independent investigations are carried out and seemingly, deliberate misdirection from DEFRA.

    Disaster? Is there a story we all missed?
    Dredging in the Tees estuary has allegedly released significant amounts of toxic chemicals from the seabed sediment, killing marine life:
    https://www.york.ac.uk/news-and-events/news/2022/research/toxic-chemical-may-have-killed-crabs/

    Government has been denying there's any evidence for quite a while now, and has refused to halt the dredging for further studies.

    More here:
    https://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/2022-09-29/industrial-toxins-most-likely-cause-of-sea-life-die-offs-study
  • Selebian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Prince Harry book day today - I wonder what might be in it?

    Damn, it comes around quick, doesn't it? All the build up, anticipation.... I hope it doesn't end up a bit of an anticlimax :disappointed: I assume everyone's heading down the pub for the traditional PHBD cougar?

    Anyway... Happy Prince Harry Book Day everyone!
    The joy in my little ones' eyes when they sat round the tree unwrapping their copies was the sort of thing that makes parenthood worthwhile.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    The NE Seabed disaster linked to dredging of the freeport has the potential to sink Sunak; not the original disaster but the apparent refusal to halt work whilst independent investigations are carried out and seemingly, deliberate misdirection from DEFRA.

    Disaster? Is there a story we all missed?
    1-2 centuries' accumulated toxins in Tees estuary sediment dredged up and dumped offshore - mass mortality of marine life. Fishing industry and conservationists and anglers very, very unhappy, ditto tourist industry.
    More exactly - it may not have been in the material removed, but in the material uncovered.
    Back in the 1970s, when John Merrill walked the coast, he reported conveyor belts tipping mining waste over the cliffs, causing the cliffs to move seawards. When I walked past twenty years ago, the conveyor belts had gone, and the sea was eroding the cliffs. Beneath, people were fishing from a beach that had multi-colored puddles from the pollution.

    I'm not saying this excuses this latest news, but it'll be interesting to k now what the levels of pollution are compared to those historical levels.

    The link below *should* show one of the puddles near the fishermen. This was just south of Sunderland.
    https://imgur.com/a/4Ft4u1c
  • Looks like the new anti-strike laws are being tabled today. No other peacetime government has overseen the removal of so many rights and freedoms from UK citizens as this one. After ending our freedom of movement in Europe, making it harder to vote, criminalising peaceful protest and further restricting employees’ ability to organise collectively and withdraw their labour, what will be next? Holiday pay and safety standards at work, I suspect.

    Apparently the new minimum service levels are widely in place in European countries

    I understand they will apply to ambulance, fire and rail
    That might be a reasonable argument if trade unions and their members had the same rights generally that their counterparts in the rest of democratic Europe have.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,624
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    LOL. Even Pence is on the grift.

    It looks like Mike Pence's leadership PAC spent $91,000 on copies of his new book in November.

    Putting donor money to good use!

    https://twitter.com/CREWcrew/status/1612118129034891276

    As was discussed on here yesterday, the book market is very weird and easily open to market manipulation to generate headlines.
    Particularly in the age of digital sales.

    Apparently, it’s not unknown for people to buy large orders of digital books from themselves. This only costs the Amazon (or whatever) tax, since nothing physical is involved.

    The old classic is counting “despatched to book shop” as sold, by the publisher. This is done for political biographies which are “supported” by the publisher - the publisher is actually giving the politician a pile of cash, dressed up as a book deal…
    There’s a really good job for an investigative journalist, to look at the Harry book numbers.

    It has a retail of £28, but both Amazon and Waterstones have been selling it for £14 for months now. If the publisher paid Harry a $20m advance for the book, there’s no way they’re making the money back in sales, and any serialisation in papers has been totally undermined by leaks.

    So, what’s the actual business model here? Because it clearly isn’t selling books, which will be in the six figures worldwide, not close to getting the advance back as far as the publisher s concerned.

    Obama’s memoir sold 1.7m at full price, it’s hard to imagine Harry is going to come anywhere close to that.
    https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/book-deals/article/72949-the-obamas-book-deals-spark-65-million-mystery.html
    Private Eye have a long running thing in the massive gap between the advances on celebrity biographies and sales. With politicians, it seems to be donating money - but like over paying for newspaper columns (history of that going back to the start of mass newspapers).

    What is going on with celebs has always been hard to understand. The Private Eye suggestion is that the “advances” themselves are bullshit. As in $20 million or whatever is actually what would get paid if the book sold a zillion copies. The actual cash handed over, in nearly all cases, as an actual, real advance was orders of magnitude smaller.

    The size of the advance was part of the publicity for the media package as a whole, in other words.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739

    Back in the 1970s, when John Merrill walked the coast, he reported conveyor belts tipping mining waste over the cliffs, causing the cliffs to move seawards.

    As in the ending of Get Carter
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    LOL. Even Pence is on the grift.

    It looks like Mike Pence's leadership PAC spent $91,000 on copies of his new book in November.

    Putting donor money to good use!

    https://twitter.com/CREWcrew/status/1612118129034891276

    As was discussed on here yesterday, the book market is very weird and easily open to market manipulation to generate headlines.
    Particularly in the age of digital sales.

    Apparently, it’s not unknown for people to buy large orders of digital books from themselves. This only costs the Amazon (or whatever) tax, since nothing physical is involved.

    The old classic is counting “despatched to book shop” as sold, by the publisher. This is done for political biographies which are “supported” by the publisher - the publisher is actually giving the politician a pile of cash, dressed up as a book deal…
    There’s a really good job for an investigative journalist, to look at the Harry book numbers.

    It has a retail of £28, but both Amazon and Waterstones have been selling it for £14 for months now. If the publisher paid Harry a $20m advance for the book, there’s no way they’re making the money back in sales, and any serialisation in papers has been totally undermined by leaks.

    So, what’s the actual business model here? Because it clearly isn’t selling books, which will be in the six figures worldwide, not close to getting the advance back as far as the publisher s concerned.

    Obama’s memoir sold 1.7m at full price, it’s hard to imagine Harry is going to come anywhere close to that.
    https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/book-deals/article/72949-the-obamas-book-deals-spark-65-million-mystery.html
    Just passed WH Smith and Spare already being sold at half price
This discussion has been closed.