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Can Rishi possibly turn it round? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2023 in General
Can Rishi possibly turn it round? – politicalbetting.com

Last week I promised that patients will get the care they need quicker.This morning I saw how we are doing that at Leeds Community Healthcare by providing intermediate care for patients and reducing the time people spend in hospitals.Thanks to the team for welcoming me. pic.twitter.com/YoyHA7VlH0

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Question to which the answer is "Not a hope in Hell"
  • 2 years is a long time in politics.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    2 years is a long time in politics.

    The road to Conservative recovery is longer, though.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,167
    eek said:

    Question to which the answer is "Not a hope in Hell"

    Depends on the target. If limiting Labour to largest party is a measure of success then that's definitely doable. A Tory majority seems unattainable though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    The first Democrat emerges to take on Josh Hawley
    Lucas Kunce ran unsuccessfully in 2022. He thinks he has a better shot this time around.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/06/lucas-kunce-run-against-josh-hawley-00076723
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    ...
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,153
    As I have said on here before there's a long way to go to the GE.

    Clearly LAB are well ahead now, they are favourites to win but in no way are certain to get an overall majority. However as Mike has said, Keir can become PM even if LAB comes second so unless CON get an overall majority or something near - which appears unlikely - we can all look forward to PM Keir.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Could they really have a January election? Campaigning over Christmas?

    They could use the October conference platform to kick off a November December one. And either cancel or use the budget and associated OBR in their own interest before dissolving parliament.

    So as a bet, Nov or December 24 are the dates we should be on?
  • The government's problem is that, even assuming inflation falls, there's still quite a bit of Cost of Living pain in the pipeline...

    https://twitter.com/resfoundation/status/1612379131966103553

    ... and it's not obvious what the government can do about that.

    Obviously, the government is hoping to be able to cut the rate of income tax in 2024, but even if Jeremy says "2p off!", a lot of the public are still going to say the same back to him.

    (I got that one from a Week Ending sketch about a Lawson budget.)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    Could they really have a January election? Campaigning over Christmas?

    They could use the October conference platform to kick off a November December one. And either cancel or use the budget and associated OBR in their own interest before dissolving parliament.

    So as a bet, Nov or December 24 are the dates we should be on?

    Lol @ Christmas Eve for an election
  • Nigelb said:

    The first Democrat emerges to take on Josh Hawley
    Lucas Kunce ran unsuccessfully in 2022. He thinks he has a better shot this time around.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/06/lucas-kunce-run-against-josh-hawley-00076723

    Still a long shot for ANY Democrat in the Show Me State of Missouri!

    However, think that a candidate in the Fetterman mold, that is a suit-allergic populist, could have a shot against the likes of "Hawlin' Ass" Hawley.

    IF so, then my guess is that Harry Truman will be shouting (telepathically from the Great Beyond) -

    > Give him hell, Lance!
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,153

    Could they really have a January election? Campaigning over Christmas?

    They could use the October conference platform to kick off a November December one. And either cancel or use the budget and associated OBR in their own interest before dissolving parliament.

    So as a bet, Nov or December 24 are the dates we should be on?

    I suspect that we will have a 'voter friendly' budget March 2024 followed by a GE on the same day as local elections May 2024. Going full term generally doesn't end well for the ruling party.
  • IanB2 said:

    Could they really have a January election? Campaigning over Christmas?

    They could use the October conference platform to kick off a November December one. And either cancel or use the budget and associated OBR in their own interest before dissolving parliament.

    So as a bet, Nov or December 24 are the dates we should be on?

    Lol @ Christmas Eve for an election
    The drunker and more distracted voters are, the better.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Could they really have a January election? Campaigning over Christmas?

    They could use the October conference platform to kick off a November December one. And either cancel or use the budget and associated OBR in their own interest before dissolving parliament.

    So as a bet, Nov or December 24 are the dates we should be on?

    The campaign period has to be a minimum of 5 working weeks and that would be clearly extended if the Christmas and New Year holiday period was included.
  • Could they really have a January election? Campaigning over Christmas?

    They could use the October conference platform to kick off a November December one. And either cancel or use the budget and associated OBR in their own interest before dissolving parliament.

    So as a bet, Nov or December 24 are the dates we should be on?

    I suspect that we will have a 'voter friendly' budget March 2024 followed by a GE on the same day as local elections May 2024. Going full term generally doesn't end well for the ruling party.
    Good afternoon

    I expect a cut in basic rate tax/allowances in May 24 but an election in Oct 24

    It is a huge ask for Sunak to stop Starmer becoming PM but it is too far out to be 100% certain

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    IanB2 said:

    Could they really have a January election? Campaigning over Christmas?

    They could use the October conference platform to kick off a November December one. And either cancel or use the budget and associated OBR in their own interest before dissolving parliament.

    So as a bet, Nov or December 24 are the dates we should be on?

    Lol @ Christmas Eve for an election
    The drunker and more distracted voters are, the better.
    I don't think this woujld produce a happy Christmas in the John Curtice household
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    Could they really have a January election? Campaigning over Christmas?

    They could use the October conference platform to kick off a November December one. And either cancel or use the budget and associated OBR in their own interest before dissolving parliament.

    So as a bet, Nov or December 24 are the dates we should be on?

    The campaign period has to be a minimum of 5 working weeks and that would be clearly extended if the Christmas and New Year holiday period was included.
    December 25th is a Wednesday in 2024. So actually, if it was to be December a more probable date would be the 19th.

    Would be chaos though.

    I wonder also would they count the Friday of that week (and the following Monday/Tuesday) as 'working days' or not? I mean technically they are, but in the real world, rather less so.
  • Could they really have a January election? Campaigning over Christmas?

    They could use the October conference platform to kick off a November December one. And either cancel or use the budget and associated OBR in their own interest before dissolving parliament.

    So as a bet, Nov or December 24 are the dates we should be on?

    I suspect that we will have a 'voter friendly' budget March 2024 followed by a GE on the same day as local elections May 2024. Going full term generally doesn't end well for the ruling party.
    Though there's a bit of chicken and egg there, I think. Governments who are confident of winning (e.g. Thatch and Blair in their respective pomps) go after four years, confident they have it in the bag. You only hang on late if you haven't had a clear winning opportunity earlier.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,153

    IanB2 said:

    Could they really have a January election? Campaigning over Christmas?

    They could use the October conference platform to kick off a November December one. And either cancel or use the budget and associated OBR in their own interest before dissolving parliament.

    So as a bet, Nov or December 24 are the dates we should be on?

    Lol @ Christmas Eve for an election
    The drunker and more distracted voters are, the better.
    I don't think this woujld produce a happy Christmas in the John Curtice household
    Perhaps we could have the election on 24 Dec but count the votes on 2 Jan 2025, the first working day in the new year!

    👿😈
  • IanB2 said:

    Could they really have a January election? Campaigning over Christmas?

    They could use the October conference platform to kick off a November December one. And either cancel or use the budget and associated OBR in their own interest before dissolving parliament.

    So as a bet, Nov or December 24 are the dates we should be on?

    Lol @ Christmas Eve for an election
    As long as we don't get another Love Actually parody campaign ad.
  • In answer to Mike's question I would say I hope not. In spite of some successes that they should be credited with, both Sunak and his party have proved to be poor leaders over the last few years and frankly do not deserve to be in power after the next election.

    I would not welcome a Labour Government but, as I have said before, on current performance I no longer fear one either.
  • Gareth Bale: Wales captain retires from football aged 33
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/64214855

    Never quite fulfilled his early promise.
  • QTWTAIN
  • ydoethur said:

    Could they really have a January election? Campaigning over Christmas?

    They could use the October conference platform to kick off a November December one. And either cancel or use the budget and associated OBR in their own interest before dissolving parliament.

    So as a bet, Nov or December 24 are the dates we should be on?

    The campaign period has to be a minimum of 5 working weeks and that would be clearly extended if the Christmas and New Year holiday period was included.
    December 25th is a Wednesday in 2024. So actually, if it was to be December a more probable date would be the 19th.

    Would be chaos though.

    I wonder also would they count the Friday of that week (and the following Monday/Tuesday) as 'working days' or not? I mean technically they are, but in the real world, rather less so.
    I cannot see it happening

    And on your thread this morning whilst a lot of it went over my head at least you explained in great detail your points of view and the responses were interesting and good it was published

    Mind you, Wales is in an even worse state but that is years of Labour’s neglect which is unlikely to change anytime soon
  • Gareth Bale retires with immediate effect from football

    At least he has the grace to know when his best days are over hasn't he Cristiano !!!!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Nigelb said:

    The first Democrat emerges to take on Josh Hawley
    Lucas Kunce ran unsuccessfully in 2022. He thinks he has a better shot this time around.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/06/lucas-kunce-run-against-josh-hawley-00076723

    Still a long shot for ANY Democrat in the Show Me State of Missouri!

    However, think that a candidate in the Fetterman mold, that is a suit-allergic populist, could have a shot against the likes of "Hawlin' Ass" Hawley.

    IF so, then my guess is that Harry Truman will be shouting (telepathically from the Great Beyond) -

    > Give him hell, Lance!
    It's a long way off Betfair having a market up, but I won't be laying Kunce at long odds.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited January 2023

    Apparently, hospital staff are not working hard enough. Perhaps our innumerate govt wants them to work 26 hour days?

    https://youtu.be/636ifPirrEY

    pay rise + one off cost of living payment so package totals over 10%, whilst kicking arguments over reform and productivity into future, would be EASY to achieve right now in all the strikes. Instead todays “no money till you improve your productivity” madness has for sure undermined everything Sunak has said and intimated over the weekend, imply one thing but do another is a massive vote losing look.

    The government are not managing this with an eye to winning/retaining votes in approaching elections. That is what is so surprising. Presumably they must think they are handling this well to persist with this position.

    It is a government out of touch with the bigger picture, and doesn’t function very well.

    “ Unfortunately, the government have missed yet another opportunity to put this right. We came here in good faith. What they want to talk about is productivity. Our members are working 18-hour shifts. How you become more productive with that I do not know.
    Today, unfortunately, despite us showing up in good faith, the government have missed yet another opportunity to put this right.”

    Asked if Barclay had mentioned the possibility of a one-off payment for health staff for the current financial year, Kasab said the union was told that, to justify a payment like this, workers would have to come up with productivity savings.

    “That is absolutely ludicrous. This isn’t a factory we’re talking about. We are talking about people who are working well beyond their contracted hours anyway just to get the job done, because they can’t hand patients over because they care so much. So for the government to be talking about productivity in return for a [payment] is an insult to every single one of our members.
    You all know what’s going on in hospitals at the moment. You all know how hard everybody is working. So today is an insult.”
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    IanB2 said:

    Could they really have a January election? Campaigning over Christmas?

    They could use the October conference platform to kick off a November December one. And either cancel or use the budget and associated OBR in their own interest before dissolving parliament.

    So as a bet, Nov or December 24 are the dates we should be on?

    Lol @ Christmas Eve for an election
    As long as we don't get another Love Actually parody campaign ad.
    What role is right for Sunak? A stand in having to fake enjoyable sex with the electorate?
  • Last year 6,950 UK doctors applied for a certificate to work abroad, up from 5,576 in 2021, with many feeling pushed out by poor pay and working conditions. One in four go to Australia, where hospitals and healthcare providers have launched recruitment campaigns targeting NHS doctors, nurses and midwives.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stressed-nhs-staff-leaving-in-the-thousands-for-jobs-in-australia-l2q86sf2x (£££)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Lucky boy.

    "Military surgeons led by Andriy Verba removed an unexploded VOG grenade from the body of Ukrainian serviceman

    Two sappers supervised the operation to ensure the safety of the medical staff. VOG grenade is usually fired from under-barrel grenade launcher

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1612477606745587712
  • Apparently, hospital staff are not working hard enough. Perhaps our innumerate govt wants them to work 26 hour days?

    https://youtu.be/636ifPirrEY

    pay rise + one off cost of living payment so package totals over 10%, whilst kicking arguments over reform and productivity into future, would be EASY to achieve right now in all the strikes. Instead todays “no money till you improve your productivity” madness has for sure undermined everything Sunak has said and intimated over the weekend, imply one thing but do another is a massive vote losing look.

    The government are not managing this with an eye to winning/retaining votes in approaching elections. That is what is so surprising. Presumably they must think they are handling this well to persist with this position.

    It is a government out of touch with the bigger picture, and doesn’t function very well.

    “ Unfortunately, the government have missed yet another opportunity to put this right. We came here in good faith. What they want to talk about is productivity. Our members are working 18-hour shifts. How you become more productive with that I do not know.
    Today, unfortunately, despite us showing up in good faith, the government have missed yet another opportunity to put this right.”

    Asked if Barclay had mentioned the possibility of a one-off payment for health staff for the current financial year, Kasab said the union was told that, to justify a payment like this, workers would have to come up with productivity savings.

    “That is absolutely ludicrous. This isn’t a factory we’re talking about. We are talking about people who are working well beyond their contracted hours anyway just to get the job done, because they can’t hand patients over because they care so much. So for the government to be talking about productivity in return for a [payment] is an insult to every single one of our members.
    You all know what’s going on in hospitals at the moment. You all know how hard everybody is working. So today is an insult.”
    Unison's spokesperson gave a very different observation making the point she was actually present in the meeting unlike Kasab, and said that while an actual offer had not been made there was a new desire to address the NHS issues Including pay

    Maybe spokesperson should actually attend meetings rather then comment from the sidelines
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    The brutal facts are hurting Rishi Sunak although, as usual, too much of the commentary focuses on his style, as if by speaking differently he could magically conjure better background conditions.

    ✍️@PhilipJCollins1 https://bit.ly/3ZpdUi0
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912
    Can he turn it around? Yes. Is it the most likely outcome? No.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004

    Gareth Bale retires with immediate effect from football

    At least he has the grace to know when his best days are over hasn't he Cristiano !!!!

    A great player but rather wasted by Madrid for a couple of years.

    I once heard an anecdote about someone who used to live in Madrid. His wife said they had been invited to a BBQ with someone who's husband was "something to do with football". Turned out it was Gareth Bale. Apparently he was a genuinely really good chap but he was personally uninterested in football. He never watched any matches on TV or anything like that. He cared about Golf and Wales. I'm not surprised at all he has retired as I'm sure he only carried on playing to help Wales in the World Cup. Now that his time must have passed with the national team he probably just wants to spend time on the golf course.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,624
    edited January 2023

    Apparently, hospital staff are not working hard enough. Perhaps our innumerate govt wants them to work 26 hour days?

    https://youtu.be/636ifPirrEY

    pay rise + one off cost of living payment so package totals over 10%, whilst kicking arguments over reform and productivity into future, would be EASY to achieve right now in all the strikes. Instead todays “no money till you improve your productivity” madness has for sure undermined everything Sunak has said and intimated over the weekend, imply one thing but do another is a massive vote losing look.

    The government are not managing this with an eye to winning/retaining votes in approaching elections. That is what is so surprising. Presumably they must think they are handling this well to persist with this position.

    It is a government out of touch with the bigger picture, and doesn’t function very well.

    “ Unfortunately, the government have missed yet another opportunity to put this right. We came here in good faith. What they want to talk about is productivity. Our members are working 18-hour shifts. How you become more productive with that I do not know.
    Today, unfortunately, despite us showing up in good faith, the government have missed yet another opportunity to put this right.”

    Asked if Barclay had mentioned the possibility of a one-off payment for health staff for the current financial year, Kasab said the union was told that, to justify a payment like this, workers would have to come up with productivity savings.

    “That is absolutely ludicrous. This isn’t a factory we’re talking about. We are talking about people who are working well beyond their contracted hours anyway just to get the job done, because they can’t hand patients over because they care so much. So for the government to be talking about productivity in return for a [payment] is an insult to every single one of our members.
    You all know what’s going on in hospitals at the moment. You all know how hard everybody is working. So today is an insult.”
    Productivity is nearly never about people working harder or slacking. It’s environment and training.

    The classic from the old old old days goes like this.

    A factory, back then, often consisted of a vast array of mills and lathes. Either specifically adapted or with a bit of tooling added. One operation would be done on a given tool (sometimes several, but one was common).

    The time and motion guys noticed that a lot of time was taken in finding the spanner to undo the bolts holding the piece bing worked on and to do them up again. The first idea was to add a tool rack next to each machine.

    The second, better idea was to add a fixed, long bar to the machine, which would clamp and unclamp the piece, to a specified level of clamping force, in one easy motion. This reduced the time taken to set the piece up, reduced the physical work required and improved accuracy.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    ydoethur said:

    Could they really have a January election? Campaigning over Christmas?

    They could use the October conference platform to kick off a November December one. And either cancel or use the budget and associated OBR in their own interest before dissolving parliament.

    So as a bet, Nov or December 24 are the dates we should be on?

    The campaign period has to be a minimum of 5 working weeks and that would be clearly extended if the Christmas and New Year holiday period was included.
    December 25th is a Wednesday in 2024. So actually, if it was to be December a more probable date would be the 19th.

    Would be chaos though.

    I wonder also would they count the Friday of that week (and the following Monday/Tuesday) as 'working days' or not? I mean technically they are, but in the real world, rather less so.
    The idea that we'd have an election campaign over the Christmas fortnight is moronic in the extreme.

    The government would be given punishment beatings from the electorate over and above any they were already due.

    Yet another PB Not Happening Event.


  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,167
    It's notable now that none of us are seriously countenancing the idea that Sunak's Tories will sink lower. It's all about whether he can make it up enough to challenge Labour.

    I think that's about right. OK there are some more unpleasant economic shocks in the pipeline, particularly house price falls, but I suspect moderate economic incompetence is now priced in. So voters have now "priced in":

    - Moderate economic incompetence
    - Failing public services
    - Low level corruption
    - Batshit crazy backbenchers
    - Home office ballsups

    The only dominoes yet to fall would be for moderate economic incompetence to become catastrophic, or for a major failure managing a crisis (a natural disaster or national security issue).

    So for any further increase in the gap we are then left with Labour increasing enthusiasm for their programme. But I have a feeling that any growing enthusiasm for or comfort with Labour is going to be offset by an unwind in the mid term protest vote and a decline in REFUK.
  • That was a lot of discussion ahead of the 2019 election about holding a vote in that month. I think it was felt that December 12th was about the closest you could get to Christmas.

    December 12th 2024
  • WillGWillG Posts: 1,996

    Last year 6,950 UK doctors applied for a certificate to work abroad, up from 5,576 in 2021, with many feeling pushed out by poor pay and working conditions. One in four go to Australia, where hospitals and healthcare providers have launched recruitment campaigns targeting NHS doctors, nurses and midwives.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stressed-nhs-staff-leaving-in-the-thousands-for-jobs-in-australia-l2q86sf2x (£££)

    I don't know why this country doesn't setup medical degrees so let you have to pay the whole cost of your degree if you leave the country.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    IanB2 said:

    Could they really have a January election? Campaigning over Christmas?

    They could use the October conference platform to kick off a November December one. And either cancel or use the budget and associated OBR in their own interest before dissolving parliament.

    So as a bet, Nov or December 24 are the dates we should be on?

    Lol @ Christmas Eve for an election
    The drunker and more distracted voters are, the better.
    They would have to be hung up on horse to reelect this shower.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    AlistairM said:

    Gareth Bale retires with immediate effect from football

    At least he has the grace to know when his best days are over hasn't he Cristiano !!!!

    A great player but rather wasted by Madrid for a couple of years.

    I once heard an anecdote about someone who used to live in Madrid. His wife said they had been invited to a BBQ with someone who's husband was "something to do with football". Turned out it was Gareth Bale. Apparently he was a genuinely really good chap but he was personally uninterested in football. He never watched any matches on TV or anything like that. He cared about Golf and Wales. I'm not surprised at all he has retired as I'm sure he only carried on playing to help Wales in the World Cup. Now that his time must have passed with the national team he probably just wants to spend time on the golf course.
    Hence the infamous flag: "Wales, golf, Madrid - in that order".
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545

    Apparently, hospital staff are not working hard enough. Perhaps our innumerate govt wants them to work 26 hour days?

    https://youtu.be/636ifPirrEY

    pay rise + one off cost of living payment so package totals over 10%, whilst kicking arguments over reform and productivity into future, would be EASY to achieve right now in all the strikes. Instead todays “no money till you improve your productivity” madness has for sure undermined everything Sunak has said and intimated over the weekend, imply one thing but do another is a massive vote losing look.

    The government are not managing this with an eye to winning/retaining votes in approaching elections. That is what is so surprising. Presumably they must think they are handling this well to persist with this position.

    It is a government out of touch with the bigger picture, and doesn’t function very well.

    “ Unfortunately, the government have missed yet another opportunity to put this right. We came here in good faith. What they want to talk about is productivity. Our members are working 18-hour shifts. How you become more productive with that I do not know.
    Today, unfortunately, despite us showing up in good faith, the government have missed yet another opportunity to put this right.”

    Asked if Barclay had mentioned the possibility of a one-off payment for health staff for the current financial year, Kasab said the union was told that, to justify a payment like this, workers would have to come up with productivity savings.

    “That is absolutely ludicrous. This isn’t a factory we’re talking about. We are talking about people who are working well beyond their contracted hours anyway just to get the job done, because they can’t hand patients over because they care so much. So for the government to be talking about productivity in return for a [payment] is an insult to every single one of our members.
    You all know what’s going on in hospitals at the moment. You all know how hard everybody is working. So today is an insult.”
    Unison's spokesperson gave a very different observation making the point she was actually present in the meeting unlike Kasab, and said that while an actual offer had not been made there was a new desire to address the NHS issues Including pay

    Maybe spokesperson should actually attend meetings rather then comment from the sidelines
    A Whitehall source said the talks had been “useful and constructive” and that there was more common ground. They said the government was taking “a new approach in the past few days” but said Barclay wanted to have an open conversation about productivity and efficiency.

    They said that would mean a more generous pay settlement if more money could be found through savings. “There will be more money available if we can work together.”


    Seems to confirm the original point. No new money will be made available so staff have to come up with productivity gains in order for their salaries to be cut a bit less in real terms than currently planned.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/09/barclay-agreed-to-discuss-lump-sum-or-back-pay-for-nhs-workers-say-sources
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    ydoethur said:

    Could they really have a January election? Campaigning over Christmas?

    They could use the October conference platform to kick off a November December one. And either cancel or use the budget and associated OBR in their own interest before dissolving parliament.

    So as a bet, Nov or December 24 are the dates we should be on?

    The campaign period has to be a minimum of 5 working weeks and that would be clearly extended if the Christmas and New Year holiday period was included.
    December 25th is a Wednesday in 2024. So actually, if it was to be December a more probable date would be the 19th.

    Would be chaos though.

    I wonder also would they count the Friday of that week (and the following Monday/Tuesday) as 'working days' or not? I mean technically they are, but in the real world, rather less so.
    The idea that we'd have an election campaign over the Christmas fortnight is moronic in the extreme.

    The government would be given punishment beatings from the electorate over and above any they were already due.

    Yet another PB Not Happening Event.


    And that has stopped this lot when, exactly?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    edited January 2023
    WillG said:

    Last year 6,950 UK doctors applied for a certificate to work abroad, up from 5,576 in 2021, with many feeling pushed out by poor pay and working conditions. One in four go to Australia, where hospitals and healthcare providers have launched recruitment campaigns targeting NHS doctors, nurses and midwives.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stressed-nhs-staff-leaving-in-the-thousands-for-jobs-in-australia-l2q86sf2x (£££)

    I don't know why this country doesn't setup medical degrees so let you have to pay the whole cost of your degree if you leave the country.
    Since the SLC are incapable of properly recouping everything via the current (not terribly complicated) system, it probably would end badly if we tried.
  • WillG said:

    Last year 6,950 UK doctors applied for a certificate to work abroad, up from 5,576 in 2021, with many feeling pushed out by poor pay and working conditions. One in four go to Australia, where hospitals and healthcare providers have launched recruitment campaigns targeting NHS doctors, nurses and midwives.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stressed-nhs-staff-leaving-in-the-thousands-for-jobs-in-australia-l2q86sf2x (£££)

    I don't know why this country doesn't setup medical degrees so let you have to pay the whole cost of your degree if you leave the country.
    A first step would be serious investigation into why so many doctors want to leave the NHS or even leave medicine entirely.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    TimS said:

    It's notable now that none of us are seriously countenancing the idea that Sunak's Tories will sink lower. It's all about whether he can make it up enough to challenge Labour.

    I think that's about right. OK there are some more unpleasant economic shocks in the pipeline, particularly house price falls, but I suspect moderate economic incompetence is now priced in. So voters have now "priced in":

    - Moderate economic incompetence
    - Failing public services
    - Low level corruption
    - Batshit crazy backbenchers
    - Home office ballsups

    The only dominoes yet to fall would be for moderate economic incompetence to become catastrophic, or for a major failure managing a crisis (a natural disaster or national security issue).

    So for any further increase in the gap we are then left with Labour increasing enthusiasm for their programme. But I have a feeling that any growing enthusiasm for or comfort with Labour is going to be offset by an unwind in the mid term protest vote and a decline in REFUK.

    One plausible scenario for Sunak to do worse than expectations is if he makes a major gaffe... perhaps he'll be found to be lining up a cushy job for post-PM life or advise people to move to California.

    The other option is if somehow Boris makes a comeback attempt and we see some more serious conservative infighting. But generally agree - this must be close to the Tory floor.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Could they really have a January election? Campaigning over Christmas?

    They could use the October conference platform to kick off a November December one. And either cancel or use the budget and associated OBR in their own interest before dissolving parliament.

    So as a bet, Nov or December 24 are the dates we should be on?

    The campaign period has to be a minimum of 5 working weeks and that would be clearly extended if the Christmas and New Year holiday period was included.
    December 25th is a Wednesday in 2024. So actually, if it was to be December a more probable date would be the 19th.

    Would be chaos though.

    I wonder also would they count the Friday of that week (and the following Monday/Tuesday) as 'working days' or not? I mean technically they are, but in the real world, rather less so.
    The idea that we'd have an election campaign over the Christmas fortnight is moronic in the extreme.

    The government would be given punishment beatings from the electorate over and above any they were already due.

    Yet another PB Not Happening Event.


    And that has stopped this lot when,


    exactly?
    Fair point.
  • FF43 said:

    Apparently, hospital staff are not working hard enough. Perhaps our innumerate govt wants them to work 26 hour days?

    https://youtu.be/636ifPirrEY

    pay rise + one off cost of living payment so package totals over 10%, whilst kicking arguments over reform and productivity into future, would be EASY to achieve right now in all the strikes. Instead todays “no money till you improve your productivity” madness has for sure undermined everything Sunak has said and intimated over the weekend, imply one thing but do another is a massive vote losing look.

    The government are not managing this with an eye to winning/retaining votes in approaching elections. That is what is so surprising. Presumably they must think they are handling this well to persist with this position.

    It is a government out of touch with the bigger picture, and doesn’t function very well.

    “ Unfortunately, the government have missed yet another opportunity to put this right. We came here in good faith. What they want to talk about is productivity. Our members are working 18-hour shifts. How you become more productive with that I do not know.
    Today, unfortunately, despite us showing up in good faith, the government have missed yet another opportunity to put this right.”

    Asked if Barclay had mentioned the possibility of a one-off payment for health staff for the current financial year, Kasab said the union was told that, to justify a payment like this, workers would have to come up with productivity savings.

    “That is absolutely ludicrous. This isn’t a factory we’re talking about. We are talking about people who are working well beyond their contracted hours anyway just to get the job done, because they can’t hand patients over because they care so much. So for the government to be talking about productivity in return for a [payment] is an insult to every single one of our members.
    You all know what’s going on in hospitals at the moment. You all know how hard everybody is working. So today is an insult.”
    Unison's spokesperson gave a very different observation making the point she was actually present in the meeting unlike Kasab, and said that while an actual offer had not been made there was a new desire to address the NHS issues Including pay

    Maybe spokesperson should actually attend meetings rather then comment from the sidelines
    A Whitehall source said the talks had been “useful and constructive” and that there was more common ground. They said the government was taking “a new approach in the past few days” but said Barclay wanted to have an open conversation about productivity and efficiency.

    They said that would mean a more generous pay settlement if more money could be found through savings. “There will be more money available if we can work together.”


    Seems to confirm the original point. No new money will be made available so staff have to come up with productivity gains in order for their salaries to be cut a bit less in real terms than currently planned.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/09/barclay-agreed-to-discuss-lump-sum-or-back-pay-for-nhs-workers-say-sources
    The point made by the Unison negotiator and now commented on by Barclay at the dispatch box is that the dissenting voice was not present at the meeting
  • Looking at the picture in the header, Rishi has gone half-Boris: tie tucked in; sleeves rolled up, but without the same air of rushed scruffiness that made Boris look as if he'd just performed an emergency amputation in the hospital car park.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    I note lots of Boris Johnson revival stories in his usual fanzines during the last 24 hours. Is BigDog on manouvres? The Sun says Johnson will be popular with voters.

    God help us!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    edited January 2023

    FF43 said:

    Apparently, hospital staff are not working hard enough. Perhaps our innumerate govt wants them to work 26 hour days?

    https://youtu.be/636ifPirrEY

    pay rise + one off cost of living payment so package totals over 10%, whilst kicking arguments over reform and productivity into future, would be EASY to achieve right now in all the strikes. Instead todays “no money till you improve your productivity” madness has for sure undermined everything Sunak has said and intimated over the weekend, imply one thing but do another is a massive vote losing look.

    The government are not managing this with an eye to winning/retaining votes in approaching elections. That is what is so surprising. Presumably they must think they are handling this well to persist with this position.

    It is a government out of touch with the bigger picture, and doesn’t function very well.

    “ Unfortunately, the government have missed yet another opportunity to put this right. We came here in good faith. What they want to talk about is productivity. Our members are working 18-hour shifts. How you become more productive with that I do not know.
    Today, unfortunately, despite us showing up in good faith, the government have missed yet another opportunity to put this right.”

    Asked if Barclay had mentioned the possibility of a one-off payment for health staff for the current financial year, Kasab said the union was told that, to justify a payment like this, workers would have to come up with productivity savings.

    “That is absolutely ludicrous. This isn’t a factory we’re talking about. We are talking about people who are working well beyond their contracted hours anyway just to get the job done, because they can’t hand patients over because they care so much. So for the government to be talking about productivity in return for a [payment] is an insult to every single one of our members.
    You all know what’s going on in hospitals at the moment. You all know how hard everybody is working. So today is an insult.”
    Unison's spokesperson gave a very different observation making the point she was actually present in the meeting unlike Kasab, and said that while an actual offer had not been made there was a new desire to address the NHS issues Including pay

    Maybe spokesperson should actually attend meetings rather then comment from the sidelines
    A Whitehall source said the talks had been “useful and constructive” and that there was more common ground. They said the government was taking “a new approach in the past few days” but said Barclay wanted to have an open conversation about productivity and efficiency.

    They said that would mean a more generous pay settlement if more money could be found through savings. “There will be more money available if we can work together.”


    Seems to confirm the original point. No new money will be made available so staff have to come up with productivity gains in order for their salaries to be cut a bit less in real terms than currently planned.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/09/barclay-agreed-to-discuss-lump-sum-or-back-pay-for-nhs-workers-say-sources
    The point made by the Unison negotiator and now commented on by Barclay at the dispatch box is that the dissenting voice was not present at the meeting
    As the "Whitehall source" corroborated the accuracy of his claim, why is this relevant?

    Edit. Maybe Barclay is backtracking on his position, which is good, and worth noting if that's the case
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758

    Looking at the picture in the header, Rishi has gone half-Boris: tie tucked in; sleeves rolled up, but without the same air of rushed scruffiness that made Boris look as if he'd just performed an emergency amputation in the hospital car park.

    An interesting simile. But when I see a Johnson half out of its clothes, I tend to think of other physical activities with medical implications.
  • FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Apparently, hospital staff are not working hard enough. Perhaps our innumerate govt wants them to work 26 hour days?

    https://youtu.be/636ifPirrEY

    pay rise + one off cost of living payment so package totals over 10%, whilst kicking arguments over reform and productivity into future, would be EASY to achieve right now in all the strikes. Instead todays “no money till you improve your productivity” madness has for sure undermined everything Sunak has said and intimated over the weekend, imply one thing but do another is a massive vote losing look.

    The government are not managing this with an eye to winning/retaining votes in approaching elections. That is what is so surprising. Presumably they must think they are handling this well to persist with this position.

    It is a government out of touch with the bigger picture, and doesn’t function very well.

    “ Unfortunately, the government have missed yet another opportunity to put this right. We came here in good faith. What they want to talk about is productivity. Our members are working 18-hour shifts. How you become more productive with that I do not know.
    Today, unfortunately, despite us showing up in good faith, the government have missed yet another opportunity to put this right.”

    Asked if Barclay had mentioned the possibility of a one-off payment for health staff for the current financial year, Kasab said the union was told that, to justify a payment like this, workers would have to come up with productivity savings.

    “That is absolutely ludicrous. This isn’t a factory we’re talking about. We are talking about people who are working well beyond their contracted hours anyway just to get the job done, because they can’t hand patients over because they care so much. So for the government to be talking about productivity in return for a [payment] is an insult to every single one of our members.
    You all know what’s going on in hospitals at the moment. You all know how hard everybody is working. So today is an insult.”
    Unison's spokesperson gave a very different observation making the point she was actually present in the meeting unlike Kasab, and said that while an actual offer had not been made there was a new desire to address the NHS issues Including pay

    Maybe spokesperson should actually attend meetings rather then comment from the sidelines
    A Whitehall source said the talks had been “useful and constructive” and that there was more common ground. They said the government was taking “a new approach in the past few days” but said Barclay wanted to have an open conversation about productivity and efficiency.

    They said that would mean a more generous pay settlement if more money could be found through savings. “There will be more money available if we can work together.”


    Seems to confirm the original point. No new money will be made available so staff have to come up with productivity gains in order for their salaries to be cut a bit less in real terms than currently planned.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/09/barclay-agreed-to-discuss-lump-sum-or-back-pay-for-nhs-workers-say-sources
    The point made by the Unison negotiator and now commented on by Barclay at the dispatch box is that the dissenting voice was not present at the meeting
    As the "Whitehall source" corroborated the accuracy of his claim, why is this relevant?
    It was the Unison negotiator who criticised him for not being in the meeting and that she was pleased that work conditions and pay are now on the table
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    I note lots of Boris Johnson revival stories in his usual fanzines during the last 24 hours. Is BigDog on manouvres? The Sun says Johnson will be popular with voters.

    God help us!

    As Barnum said - you can fool some of the people all of the time.

    So yep some people would be happy with Bozo returning as PM but a lot more people will be weary of him compared to 2019 so he won't be the great solution he was then.

    And his reappearance would probably rejuvenate Farage more than anything else possibly could.
  • Of course they could turn it around because this is politics. The old rules have been thrown in the bin and in this post-truth post-sanity polity anything can happen. Hell, most of it has already happened.

    That being said, it will take something completely unforeseen to make it happen. As for the date of the election, I say 2025. Apparently the wisdom of the right is that having had a good kicking in the polls, the medicine isn't some ointment for their sore polls but to go Harder and Faster. Remember that FUKUK plan to run candidates in every GB constituency, so even the stupidest of Tory MP will face a challenge from the right.

    So if the going is still perilous I can see them forcing through one last throw of the dice. Sunak gone, Bozza back, and a flurry of "I will dance naked for cash" policies announced at conference and railroaded through parliament. Why can't we have an election, because the new PM needs to get these urgent people's policies through. And if parliament tries to block them, simply run them as SIs. The courts won't get to them before the election and the Mail / GBeebies will go to town about leftie lawyers. And a Christmas campaign suits the Big Dog.

    So why not. As late in January 2025 as legally permissible.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    edited January 2023
    eek said:

    I note lots of Boris Johnson revival stories in his usual fanzines during the last 24 hours. Is BigDog on manouvres? The Sun says Johnson will be popular with voters.

    God help us!

    As Barnum said - you can fool some of the people all of the time.

    So yep some people would be happy with Bozo returning as PM but a lot more people will be weary of him compared to 2019 so he won't be the great solution he was then.

    And his reappearance would probably rejuvenate Farage more than anything else possibly could.
    My fear is if the Conservative Party is daft enough to vote for him so might Joe Public.

    I do apologise for my earlier rather foolish question, namely, "is Johnson on manouvres?" Of course, it is well known Johnson is always on manouvres.
  • That was a lot of discussion ahead of the 2019 election about holding a vote in that month. I think it was felt that December 12th was about the closest you could get to Christmas.

    December 12th 2024
    Its a Thursday so that would work.
  • rkrkrk said:

    TimS said:

    It's notable now that none of us are seriously countenancing the idea that Sunak's Tories will sink lower. It's all about whether he can make it up enough to challenge Labour.

    I think that's about right. OK there are some more unpleasant economic shocks in the pipeline, particularly house price falls, but I suspect moderate economic incompetence is now priced in. So voters have now "priced in":

    - Moderate economic incompetence
    - Failing public services
    - Low level corruption
    - Batshit crazy backbenchers
    - Home office ballsups

    The only dominoes yet to fall would be for moderate economic incompetence to become catastrophic, or for a major failure managing a crisis (a natural disaster or national security issue).

    So for any further increase in the gap we are then left with Labour increasing enthusiasm for their programme. But I have a feeling that any growing enthusiasm for or comfort with Labour is going to be offset by an unwind in the mid term protest vote and a decline in REFUK.

    One plausible scenario for Sunak to do worse than expectations is if he makes a major gaffe... perhaps he'll be found to be lining up a cushy job for post-PM life or advise people to move to California.

    The other option is if somehow Boris makes a comeback attempt and we see some more serious conservative infighting. But generally agree - this must be close to the Tory floor.
    Unless some-one with deep pockets comes along and can fund RefUK into becoming a serious force.
  • Lab lead widens.

    Labour leads by 22%, up two points from last week.

    Westminster VI (8 January):

    Labour 48% (+1)
    Conservative 26% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-3)
    Reform UK 6% (+1)
    Green 5% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 2-3 January

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1612494546666983437?s=46&t=MDFpoM7HHBQVV6a7XZyIkQ
  • On topic it could happen but there’s more chance of me becoming the President of the Max Verstappen fan club.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,167

    Of course they could turn it around because this is politics. The old rules have been thrown in the bin and in this post-truth post-sanity polity anything can happen. Hell, most of it has already happened.

    That being said, it will take something completely unforeseen to make it happen. As for the date of the election, I say 2025. Apparently the wisdom of the right is that having had a good kicking in the polls, the medicine isn't some ointment for their sore polls but to go Harder and Faster. Remember that FUKUK plan to run candidates in every GB constituency, so even the stupidest of Tory MP will face a challenge from the right.

    So if the going is still perilous I can see them forcing through one last throw of the dice. Sunak gone, Bozza back, and a flurry of "I will dance naked for cash" policies announced at conference and railroaded through parliament. Why can't we have an election, because the new PM needs to get these urgent people's policies through. And if parliament tries to block them, simply run them as SIs. The courts won't get to them before the election and the Mail / GBeebies will go to town about leftie lawyers. And a Christmas campaign suits the Big Dog.

    So why not. As late in January 2025 as legally permissible.

    Oh God, that is unnervingly plausible.

    That's the thing isn't it, most of us are still afraid of Johnson despite his spectacular fall from grace. Seeing him return to PM would be like watching a long past his prime Botham stride out on to the pitch in the final innings of a test. You'd know you could almost certainly get him out cheaply but that niggling doubt would still be there in the background.
  • Lab lead widens.

    Labour leads by 22%, up two points from last week.

    Westminster VI (8 January):

    Labour 48% (+1)
    Conservative 26% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-3)
    Reform UK 6% (+1)
    Green 5% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 2-3 January

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1612494546666983437?s=46&t=MDFpoM7HHBQVV6a7XZyIkQ

    Broken, sleazy Tories LibDems on the slide!
  • On topic it could happen but there’s more chance of me becoming the President of the Max Verstappen fan club watching Die Hard on Christmas Day.

    :innocent:
  • If Sunak isn't turning it around then his MPs won't let him call an election. Short of him not discussing it with anyone a planned dissolution would leak out, and they would VNC him faster than you can say I am a Fighter not a Quitter.

    We then get the return of the King. Who needs a little time to chop up large chunks of red meat. So not only will he go as late as he can, he can quote precedent as John Major did the same. And with the passing of the decades he's practically a saint so it must be ok.

    Think about the start of the Tory Christmas campaign Boris laying out the Christmas Presents he is bringing you. The Sun / Mail et al will have a Christmas Tree graphic. And anyone who attacks these gifts as being stupid / backwards / uncosted will be attacked as The Grinch.

    A Christmas campaign is a disastrous idea. Unless its Boris throwing presents at the public. If the alternative is they are going to lose anyway under Sunak, why not throw the dice one last time?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    edited January 2023
    eek said:

    I note lots of Boris Johnson revival stories in his usual fanzines during the last 24 hours. Is BigDog on manouvres? The Sun says Johnson will be popular with voters.

    God help us!

    As Barnum said - you can fool some of the people all of the time.

    So yep some people would be happy with Bozo returning as PM but a lot more people will be weary of him compared to 2019 so he won't be the great solution he was then.

    And his reappearance would probably rejuvenate Farage more than anything else possibly could.
    As George W Bush said, "you can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones to focus on."
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,167

    Lab lead widens.

    Labour leads by 22%, up two points from last week.

    Westminster VI (8 January):

    Labour 48% (+1)
    Conservative 26% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-3)
    Reform UK 6% (+1)
    Green 5% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 2-3 January

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1612494546666983437?s=46&t=MDFpoM7HHBQVV6a7XZyIkQ

    Lib Dem slump.

    LLG:RefCon 62:32, unchanged from last time. Intra-bloc churn in other words.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    eek said:

    I note lots of Boris Johnson revival stories in his usual fanzines during the last 24 hours. Is BigDog on manouvres? The Sun says Johnson will be popular with voters.

    God help us!

    As Barnum said - you can fool some of the people all of the time.

    So yep some people would be happy with Bozo returning as PM but a lot more people will be weary of him compared to 2019 so he won't be the great solution he was then.

    And his reappearance would probably rejuvenate Farage more than anything else possibly could.
    My fear is if the Conservative Party is daft enough to vote for him so might Joe Public.

    I do apologise for my earlier rather foolish question, namely, "is Johnson on manouvres?" Of course, it is well known Johnson is always on manouvres.
    I am 100% certain Boris would get a better result at next GE than Sunak. Sunak’s government is already struggling as thought of as out of touch with people.

    But I am also certain Boris has 0% chance of ousting Sunak. Unfortunately for Boris, his political career ends in embarrassing failure. No chance of tackling what will forever be unfinished business in his mind.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    edited January 2023

    Gareth Bale: Wales captain retires from football aged 33
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/64214855

    Never quite fulfilled his early promise.

    His early promise was being offered to the Championship as a left back after setting the record for the most Prem games without a win .....
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,167

    eek said:

    I note lots of Boris Johnson revival stories in his usual fanzines during the last 24 hours. Is BigDog on manouvres? The Sun says Johnson will be popular with voters.

    God help us!

    As Barnum said - you can fool some of the people all of the time.

    So yep some people would be happy with Bozo returning as PM but a lot more people will be weary of him compared to 2019 so he won't be the great solution he was then.

    And his reappearance would probably rejuvenate Farage more than anything else possibly could.
    My fear is if the Conservative Party is daft enough to vote for him so might Joe Public.

    I do apologise for my earlier rather foolish question, namely, "is Johnson on manouvres?" Of course, it is well known Johnson is always on manouvres.
    I am 100% certain Boris would get a better result at next GE than Sunak. Sunak’s government is already struggling as thought of as out of touch with people.

    But I am also certain Boris has 0% chance of ousting Sunak. Unfortunately for Boris, his political career ends in embarrassing failure. No chance of tackling what will forever be unfinished business in his mind.
    If he kept quiet and didn't scare the horses Boris would probably do better than Sunak. He and his retainers could also claim greater legitimacy as he fought and won the last election. But the potential is also for a far greater disaster to befall a Johnson premiership, or indeed just more of the old sleaze that will remind MPs why they got rid of him in the first place.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    eek said:

    I note lots of Boris Johnson revival stories in his usual fanzines during the last 24 hours. Is BigDog on manouvres? The Sun says Johnson will be popular with voters.

    God help us!

    As Barnum said - you can fool some of the people all of the time.

    So yep some people would be happy with Bozo returning as PM but a lot more people will be weary of him compared to 2019 so he won't be the great solution he was then.

    And his reappearance would probably rejuvenate Farage more than anything else possibly could.
    My fear is if the Conservative Party is daft enough to vote for him so might Joe Public.

    I do apologise for my earlier rather foolish question, namely, "is Johnson on manouvres?" Of course, it is well known Johnson is always on manouvres.
    I am 100% certain Boris would get a better result at next GE than Sunak. Sunak’s government is already struggling as thought of as out of touch with people.

    But I am also certain Boris has 0% chance of ousting Sunak. Unfortunately for Boris, his political career ends in embarrassing failure. No chance of tackling what will forever be unfinished business in his mind.
    There are people who would only vote Tory if Johnson were the leader, for sure. But there are people who will vote Tory provided Johnson isn't the leader. Big_G is an obvious example. The growing realisation that Brexit was snake oil is diminishing the former, while the latter got a big boost with all the scandal and shanagagins of this year, and it is far from obvious that time will help people forget. And that's before we get to the Parliamentary Inquiry and the vulnerability of his seat.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    TimS said:

    Lab lead widens.

    Labour leads by 22%, up two points from last week.

    Westminster VI (8 January):

    Labour 48% (+1)
    Conservative 26% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 9% (-3)
    Reform UK 6% (+1)
    Green 5% (+2)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 2-3 January

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1612494546666983437?s=46&t=MDFpoM7HHBQVV6a7XZyIkQ

    Lib Dem slump.

    LLG:RefCon 62:32, unchanged from last time. Intra-bloc churn in other words.
    Yes. But the drop in Tory % is part of a wider trend - whatever their actual average was six weeks ago it’s been going down since.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    The trouble with Sunak is that he doesn’t appear to be very good at politics or have a strong team behind him, so turning around his party or the country, which would be a monumental challenge for a seasoned veteran with a strong team, looks beyond him.

    He could be playing his cards very close to his chest, but somehow I doubt it.
  • IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    I note lots of Boris Johnson revival stories in his usual fanzines during the last 24 hours. Is BigDog on manouvres? The Sun says Johnson will be popular with voters.

    God help us!

    As Barnum said - you can fool some of the people all of the time.

    So yep some people would be happy with Bozo returning as PM but a lot more people will be weary of him compared to 2019 so he won't be the great solution he was then.

    And his reappearance would probably rejuvenate Farage more than anything else possibly could.
    My fear is if the Conservative Party is daft enough to vote for him so might Joe Public.

    I do apologise for my earlier rather foolish question, namely, "is Johnson on manouvres?" Of course, it is well known Johnson is always on manouvres.
    I am 100% certain Boris would get a better result at next GE than Sunak. Sunak’s government is already struggling as thought of as out of touch with people.

    But I am also certain Boris has 0% chance of ousting Sunak. Unfortunately for Boris, his political career ends in embarrassing failure. No chance of tackling what will forever be unfinished business in his mind.
    There are people who would only vote Tory if Johnson were the leader, for sure. But there are people who will vote Tory provided Johnson isn't the leader. Big_G is an obvious example. The growing realisation that Brexit was snake oil is diminishing the former, while the latter got a big boost with all the scandal and shanagagins of this year, and it is far from obvious that time will help people forget. And that's before we get to the Parliamentary Inquiry and the vulnerability of his seat.
    You are correct in saying I would vote for Sunak but most certainly not Johnson at which point I would vote lib dem
  • rkrkrk said:

    TimS said:

    It's notable now that none of us are seriously countenancing the idea that Sunak's Tories will sink lower. It's all about whether he can make it up enough to challenge Labour.

    I think that's about right. OK there are some more unpleasant economic shocks in the pipeline, particularly house price falls, but I suspect moderate economic incompetence is now priced in. So voters have now "priced in":

    - Moderate economic incompetence
    - Failing public services
    - Low level corruption
    - Batshit crazy backbenchers
    - Home office ballsups

    The only dominoes yet to fall would be for moderate economic incompetence to become catastrophic, or for a major failure managing a crisis (a natural disaster or national security issue).

    So for any further increase in the gap we are then left with Labour increasing enthusiasm for their programme. But I have a feeling that any growing enthusiasm for or comfort with Labour is going to be offset by an unwind in the mid term protest vote and a decline in REFUK.

    One plausible scenario for Sunak to do worse than expectations is if he makes a major gaffe... perhaps he'll be found to be lining up a cushy job for post-PM life or advise people to move to California.

    The other option is if somehow Boris makes a comeback attempt and we see some more serious conservative infighting. But generally agree - this must be close to the Tory floor.
    Unless some-one with deep pockets comes along and can fund RefUK into becoming a serious force.
    They could join a new federation with other similar parties abroad, which might make them more popular especially with the incel crowd. It would be called FRefUK.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    edited January 2023

    If Sunak isn't turning it around then his MPs won't let him call an election. Short of him not discussing it with anyone a planned dissolution would leak out, and they would VNC him faster than you can say I am a Fighter not a Quitter.

    We then get the return of the King. Who needs a little time to chop up large chunks of red meat. So not only will he go as late as he can, he can quote precedent as John Major did the same. And with the passing of the decades he's practically a saint so it must be ok.

    Think about the start of the Tory Christmas campaign Boris laying out the Christmas Presents he is bringing you. The Sun / Mail et al will have a Christmas Tree graphic. And anyone who attacks these gifts as being stupid / backwards / uncosted will be attacked as The Grinch.

    A Christmas campaign is a disastrous idea. Unless its Boris throwing presents at the public. If the alternative is they are going to lose anyway under Sunak, why not throw the dice one last time?

    Given that the Parliamentary Conservative Party rejected Boris on (depending on how you count it) around three separate occasions in 2022, why would they change their mind?
  • On topic it could happen but there’s more chance of me becoming the President of the Max Verstappen fan club watching Die Hard on Christmas Day.

    :innocent:
    Quite right. It's a day late. Die Hard is set on Christmas Eve (as I discovered when I watched it for the first time last month, on Christmas Day).
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    HYUFD said:
    A nine point Labour lead and still no majority? Are you prepared to put your money where your mouth is on a 9 point Labour lead and a hung parliament?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    eek said:

    I note lots of Boris Johnson revival stories in his usual fanzines during the last 24 hours. Is BigDog on manouvres? The Sun says Johnson will be popular with voters.

    God help us!

    As Barnum said - you can fool some of the people all of the time.

    So yep some people would be happy with Bozo returning as PM but a lot more people will be weary of him compared to 2019 so he won't be the great solution he was then.

    And his reappearance would probably rejuvenate Farage more than anything else possibly could.
    RefUK is polling over double where it was when Boris was PM. It is also polling higher than when Truss was PM, albeit Sunak has made some gains from Labour since Truss left and from the LDs who were polling higher under Boris and Truss than now
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,089
    I would caveat these "Labour needs a 10% national lead on new boundaries" with "unless there is more tactical voting this time"
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    edited January 2023

    HYUFD said:
    A nine point Labour lead and still no majority? Are you prepared to put your money where your mouth is on a 9 point Labour lead and a hung parliament?
    The Greens wouldn't get 5% if we were that close to a Labour majority.
  • Driver said:

    If Sunak isn't turning it around then his MPs won't let him call an election. Short of him not discussing it with anyone a planned dissolution would leak out, and they would VNC him faster than you can say I am a Fighter not a Quitter.

    We then get the return of the King. Who needs a little time to chop up large chunks of red meat. So not only will he go as late as he can, he can quote precedent as John Major did the same. And with the passing of the decades he's practically a saint so it must be ok.

    Think about the start of the Tory Christmas campaign Boris laying out the Christmas Presents he is bringing you. The Sun / Mail et al will have a Christmas Tree graphic. And anyone who attacks these gifts as being stupid / backwards / uncosted will be attacked as The Grinch.

    A Christmas campaign is a disastrous idea. Unless its Boris throwing presents at the public. If the alternative is they are going to lose anyway under Sunak, why not throw the dice one last time?

    Given that the Parliamentary Conservative Party rejected Boris on (depending on how you count it) around three separate occasions in 2022, why would they change their mind?
    Because its now summer 2024. The polls haven't shifted significantly, Sunak and his government are deeply unpopular, and the Constituency Associations are telling MPs facing redundancy that they should Bring Back Boris or else.

    At which point does self-preservation kick in? You need to do *something* to avoid a heavy defeat, so go back to the frontman in your greatest hits era. He may still lose the election and your seat, but its "may" rather than will if Sunak calls an October election...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    Bolsinaro admitted to hospital in Florida.

  • Marie-Ann Detests Tories 🇺🇦 🇪🇺 🇬🇧
    @MarieAnnUK
    Oxford: That awesome moment when Boris Johnson wanted a quiet visit to his old college for lunch. Students found out and had other ideas.

    https://twitter.com/MarieAnnUK/status/1612174913598627840

    Banner saying RACIST BORIS WHAT DEAD ANIMALS HAVE YOU FUCKED?

    I worry about Oxford students, or do they know something we don't?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,912
    mwadams said:

    I would caveat these "Labour needs a 10% national lead on new boundaries" with "unless there is more tactical voting this time"

    Yes, given likely significant anti Tory tactical voting I would expect a 10pp Labour lead - which would be my median forecast for the 2024 election - to give them a decent working majority.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    mwadams said:

    I would caveat these "Labour needs a 10% national lead on new boundaries" with "unless there is more tactical voting this time"

    I suspect there won't be UNS either.
    Polling suggests a moderate swing in London, where there aren't many marginals.
    Bigger swings in the North and Wales where there are.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    Driver said:

    If Sunak isn't turning it around then his MPs won't let him call an election. Short of him not discussing it with anyone a planned dissolution would leak out, and they would VNC him faster than you can say I am a Fighter not a Quitter.

    We then get the return of the King. Who needs a little time to chop up large chunks of red meat. So not only will he go as late as he can, he can quote precedent as John Major did the same. And with the passing of the decades he's practically a saint so it must be ok.

    Think about the start of the Tory Christmas campaign Boris laying out the Christmas Presents he is bringing you. The Sun / Mail et al will have a Christmas Tree graphic. And anyone who attacks these gifts as being stupid / backwards / uncosted will be attacked as The Grinch.

    A Christmas campaign is a disastrous idea. Unless its Boris throwing presents at the public. If the alternative is they are going to lose anyway under Sunak, why not throw the dice one last time?

    Given that the Parliamentary Conservative Party rejected Boris on (depending on how you count it) around three separate occasions in 2022, why would they change their mind?
    Because its now summer 2024. The polls haven't shifted significantly, Sunak and his government are deeply unpopular, and the Constituency Associations are telling MPs facing redundancy that they should Bring Back Boris or else.

    At which point does self-preservation kick in? You need to do *something* to avoid a heavy defeat, so go back to the frontman in your greatest hits era. He may still lose the election and your seat, but its "may" rather than will if Sunak calls an October election...
    Even in 2019 MPs weren't too keen on Boris. They reluctantly went for him because it was known that there was exactly one thing that they needed and he was the best person to deliver that.

    The same wouldn't apply in 2024.
  • Driver said:

    If Sunak isn't turning it around then his MPs won't let him call an election. Short of him not discussing it with anyone a planned dissolution would leak out, and they would VNC him faster than you can say I am a Fighter not a Quitter.

    We then get the return of the King. Who needs a little time to chop up large chunks of red meat. So not only will he go as late as he can, he can quote precedent as John Major did the same. And with the passing of the decades he's practically a saint so it must be ok.

    Think about the start of the Tory Christmas campaign Boris laying out the Christmas Presents he is bringing you. The Sun / Mail et al will have a Christmas Tree graphic. And anyone who attacks these gifts as being stupid / backwards / uncosted will be attacked as The Grinch.

    A Christmas campaign is a disastrous idea. Unless its Boris throwing presents at the public. If the alternative is they are going to lose anyway under Sunak, why not throw the dice one last time?

    Given that the Parliamentary Conservative Party rejected Boris on (depending on how you count it) around three separate occasions in 2022, why would they change their mind?
    Because its now summer 2024. The polls haven't shifted significantly, Sunak and his government are deeply unpopular, and the Constituency Associations are telling MPs facing redundancy that they should Bring Back Boris or else.

    At which point does self-preservation kick in? You need to do *something* to avoid a heavy defeat, so go back to the frontman in your greatest hits era. He may still lose the election and your seat, but its "may" rather than will if Sunak calls an October election...
    It probably wouldn't work, and may make things worse. After all, by then BoJo would be an Official Big Muscly Liar. And he wouldn't be able to throw fiscal caution to the wind without the pound tanking again.

    But desperate men and women in desperate times do desperate things.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    eek said:

    I note lots of Boris Johnson revival stories in his usual fanzines during the last 24 hours. Is BigDog on manouvres? The Sun says Johnson will be popular with voters.

    God help us!

    As Barnum said - you can fool some of the people all of the time.

    So yep some people would be happy with Bozo returning as PM but a lot more people will be weary of him compared to 2019 so he won't be the great solution he was then.

    And his reappearance would probably rejuvenate Farage more than anything else possibly could.
    My fear is if the Conservative Party is daft enough to vote for him so might Joe Public.

    I do apologise for my earlier rather foolish question, namely, "is Johnson on manouvres?" Of course, it is well known Johnson is always on manouvres.
    I am 100% certain Boris would get a better result at next GE than Sunak. Sunak’s government is already struggling as thought of as out of touch with people.

    But I am also certain Boris has 0% chance of ousting Sunak. Unfortunately for Boris, his political career ends in embarrassing failure. No chance of tackling what will forever be unfinished business in his mind.
    Agree on both points. He probably would minimize the coming Con defeat but he won't be getting the chance. Sunak is safe for the GE.

    There's one possibility re Johnson which I rate less outlandish than I think most people do - he returns as LOTO after the GE. I wouldn't rule that out.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Driver said:

    If Sunak isn't turning it around then his MPs won't let him call an election. Short of him not discussing it with anyone a planned dissolution would leak out, and they would VNC him faster than you can say I am a Fighter not a Quitter.

    We then get the return of the King. Who needs a little time to chop up large chunks of red meat. So not only will he go as late as he can, he can quote precedent as John Major did the same. And with the passing of the decades he's practically a saint so it must be ok.

    Think about the start of the Tory Christmas campaign Boris laying out the Christmas Presents he is bringing you. The Sun / Mail et al will have a Christmas Tree graphic. And anyone who attacks these gifts as being stupid / backwards / uncosted will be attacked as The Grinch.

    A Christmas campaign is a disastrous idea. Unless its Boris throwing presents at the public. If the alternative is they are going to lose anyway under Sunak, why not throw the dice one last time?

    Given that the Parliamentary Conservative Party rejected Boris on (depending on how you count it) around three separate occasions in 2022, why would they change their mind?
    Because its now summer 2024. The polls haven't shifted significantly, Sunak and his government are deeply unpopular, and the Constituency Associations are telling MPs facing redundancy that they should Bring Back Boris or else.

    At which point does self-preservation kick in? You need to do *something* to avoid a heavy defeat, so go back to the frontman in your greatest hits era. He may still lose the election and your seat, but its "may" rather than will if Sunak calls an October election...
    it would be may even with Bozo in power.

    Although it highlights something I've pointed out for a while which is that the best think Rishi could do would be to allow the Parliamentary Standards Committee to make an example of Bozo to the extent that Labour can run a recall petition.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    mwadams said:

    I would caveat these "Labour needs a 10% national lead on new boundaries" with "unless there is more tactical voting this time"

    See for example the story earlier today that the Lib Dems are looking at targeting seats in Surrey. https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/10-election-target-seats-lib-28865837
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    On topic it could happen but there’s more chance of me becoming the President of the Max Verstappen fan club watching Die Hard on Christmas Day.

    :innocent:
    Quite right. It's a day late. Die Hard is set on Christmas Eve (as I discovered when I watched it for the first time last month, on Christmas Day).
    You can tell it's set in America. In Britain any Christmas party after about December 15th will be missing people because some people will have already left for Christmas or have prior engagements.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    I note lots of Boris Johnson revival stories in his usual fanzines during the last 24 hours. Is BigDog on manouvres? The Sun says Johnson will be popular with voters.

    God help us!

    As Barnum said - you can fool some of the people all of the time.

    So yep some people would be happy with Bozo returning as PM but a lot more people will be weary of him compared to 2019 so he won't be the great solution he was then.

    And his reappearance would probably rejuvenate Farage more than anything else possibly could.
    My fear is if the Conservative Party is daft enough to vote for him so might Joe Public.

    I do apologise for my earlier rather foolish question, namely, "is Johnson on manouvres?" Of course, it is well known Johnson is always on manouvres.
    I am 100% certain Boris would get a better result at next GE than Sunak. Sunak’s government is already struggling as thought of as out of touch with people.

    But I am also certain Boris has 0% chance of ousting Sunak. Unfortunately for Boris, his political career ends in embarrassing failure. No chance of tackling what will forever be unfinished business in his mind.
    Agree on both points. He probably would minimize the coming Con defeat but he won't be getting the chance. Sunak is safe for the GE.

    There's one possibility re Johnson which I rate less outlandish than I think most people do - he returns as LOTO after the GE. I wouldn't rule that out.
    Can't see that.
    He'll be 60 at the next election. Would he want 5 years as LOTO for an election at age 65 to be PM till he's 70?
    Maybe. But doesn't fit well with me.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    TimS said:

    Of course they could turn it around because this is politics. The old rules have been thrown in the bin and in this post-truth post-sanity polity anything can happen. Hell, most of it has already happened.

    That being said, it will take something completely unforeseen to make it happen. As for the date of the election, I say 2025. Apparently the wisdom of the right is that having had a good kicking in the polls, the medicine isn't some ointment for their sore polls but to go Harder and Faster. Remember that FUKUK plan to run candidates in every GB constituency, so even the stupidest of Tory MP will face a challenge from the right.

    So if the going is still perilous I can see them forcing through one last throw of the dice. Sunak gone, Bozza back, and a flurry of "I will dance naked for cash" policies announced at conference and railroaded through parliament. Why can't we have an election, because the new PM needs to get these urgent people's policies through. And if parliament tries to block them, simply run them as SIs. The courts won't get to them before the election and the Mail / GBeebies will go to town about leftie lawyers. And a Christmas campaign suits the Big Dog.

    So why not. As late in January 2025 as legally permissible.

    Oh God, that is unnervingly plausible.

    That's the thing isn't it, most of us are still afraid of Johnson despite his spectacular fall from grace. Seeing him return to PM would be like watching a long past his prime Botham stride out on to the pitch in the final innings of a test. You'd know you could almost certainly get him out cheaply but that niggling doubt would still be there in the background.
    For me it'd be more like seeing a great bloodsucking vampire blob rise again despite the stake through the heart - but your analogy is objectively better.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Driver said:

    Even in 2019 MPs weren't too keen on Boris. They reluctantly went for him because it was known that there was exactly one thing that they needed and he was the best person to deliver that.

    And the thing they craved and that he handed to them is a flaming bag...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    The double whammy of carol singers and canvassers coming to your door on the same day. Unbearable.
  • dixiedean said:

    kinabalu said:

    eek said:

    I note lots of Boris Johnson revival stories in his usual fanzines during the last 24 hours. Is BigDog on manouvres? The Sun says Johnson will be popular with voters.

    God help us!

    As Barnum said - you can fool some of the people all of the time.

    So yep some people would be happy with Bozo returning as PM but a lot more people will be weary of him compared to 2019 so he won't be the great solution he was then.

    And his reappearance would probably rejuvenate Farage more than anything else possibly could.
    My fear is if the Conservative Party is daft enough to vote for him so might Joe Public.

    I do apologise for my earlier rather foolish question, namely, "is Johnson on manouvres?" Of course, it is well known Johnson is always on manouvres.
    I am 100% certain Boris would get a better result at next GE than Sunak. Sunak’s government is already struggling as thought of as out of touch with people.

    But I am also certain Boris has 0% chance of ousting Sunak. Unfortunately for Boris, his political career ends in embarrassing failure. No chance of tackling what will forever be unfinished business in his mind.
    Agree on both points. He probably would minimize the coming Con defeat but he won't be getting the chance. Sunak is safe for the GE.

    There's one possibility re Johnson which I rate less outlandish than I think most people do - he returns as LOTO after the GE. I wouldn't rule that out.
    Can't see that.
    He'll be 60 at the next election. Would he want 5 years as LOTO for an election at age 65 to be PM till he's 70?
    Maybe. But doesn't fit well with me.
    It is easy to forget Boris is older than David Cameron.
This discussion has been closed.