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Can Rishi possibly turn it round? – politicalbetting.com
Can Rishi possibly turn it round? – politicalbetting.com
Last week I promised that patients will get the care they need quicker.This morning I saw how we are doing that at Leeds Community Healthcare by providing intermediate care for patients and reducing the time people spend in hospitals.Thanks to the team for welcoming me. pic.twitter.com/YoyHA7VlH0
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Lucas Kunce ran unsuccessfully in 2022. He thinks he has a better shot this time around.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/06/lucas-kunce-run-against-josh-hawley-00076723
Clearly LAB are well ahead now, they are favourites to win but in no way are certain to get an overall majority. However as Mike has said, Keir can become PM even if LAB comes second so unless CON get an overall majority or something near - which appears unlikely - we can all look forward to PM Keir.
They could use the October conference platform to kick off a November December one. And either cancel or use the budget and associated OBR in their own interest before dissolving parliament.
So as a bet, Nov or December 24 are the dates we should be on?
https://twitter.com/resfoundation/status/1612379131966103553
... and it's not obvious what the government can do about that.
Obviously, the government is hoping to be able to cut the rate of income tax in 2024, but even if Jeremy says "2p off!", a lot of the public are still going to say the same back to him.
(I got that one from a Week Ending sketch about a Lawson budget.)
However, think that a candidate in the Fetterman mold, that is a suit-allergic populist, could have a shot against the likes of "Hawlin' Ass" Hawley.
IF so, then my guess is that Harry Truman will be shouting (telepathically from the Great Beyond) -
> Give him hell, Lance!
I expect a cut in basic rate tax/allowances in May 24 but an election in Oct 24
It is a huge ask for Sunak to stop Starmer becoming PM but it is too far out to be 100% certain
Would be chaos though.
I wonder also would they count the Friday of that week (and the following Monday/Tuesday) as 'working days' or not? I mean technically they are, but in the real world, rather less so.
👿😈
I would not welcome a Labour Government but, as I have said before, on current performance I no longer fear one either.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/64214855
Never quite fulfilled his early promise.
And on your thread this morning whilst a lot of it went over my head at least you explained in great detail your points of view and the responses were interesting and good it was published
Mind you, Wales is in an even worse state but that is years of Labour’s neglect which is unlikely to change anytime soon
At least he has the grace to know when his best days are over hasn't he Cristiano !!!!
The government are not managing this with an eye to winning/retaining votes in approaching elections. That is what is so surprising. Presumably they must think they are handling this well to persist with this position.
It is a government out of touch with the bigger picture, and doesn’t function very well.
“ Unfortunately, the government have missed yet another opportunity to put this right. We came here in good faith. What they want to talk about is productivity. Our members are working 18-hour shifts. How you become more productive with that I do not know.
Today, unfortunately, despite us showing up in good faith, the government have missed yet another opportunity to put this right.”
Asked if Barclay had mentioned the possibility of a one-off payment for health staff for the current financial year, Kasab said the union was told that, to justify a payment like this, workers would have to come up with productivity savings.
“That is absolutely ludicrous. This isn’t a factory we’re talking about. We are talking about people who are working well beyond their contracted hours anyway just to get the job done, because they can’t hand patients over because they care so much. So for the government to be talking about productivity in return for a [payment] is an insult to every single one of our members.
You all know what’s going on in hospitals at the moment. You all know how hard everybody is working. So today is an insult.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stressed-nhs-staff-leaving-in-the-thousands-for-jobs-in-australia-l2q86sf2x (£££)
"Military surgeons led by Andriy Verba removed an unexploded VOG grenade from the body of Ukrainian serviceman
Two sappers supervised the operation to ensure the safety of the medical staff. VOG grenade is usually fired from under-barrel grenade launcher
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1612477606745587712
Maybe spokesperson should actually attend meetings rather then comment from the sidelines
✍️@PhilipJCollins1 https://bit.ly/3ZpdUi0
I once heard an anecdote about someone who used to live in Madrid. His wife said they had been invited to a BBQ with someone who's husband was "something to do with football". Turned out it was Gareth Bale. Apparently he was a genuinely really good chap but he was personally uninterested in football. He never watched any matches on TV or anything like that. He cared about Golf and Wales. I'm not surprised at all he has retired as I'm sure he only carried on playing to help Wales in the World Cup. Now that his time must have passed with the national team he probably just wants to spend time on the golf course.
The classic from the old old old days goes like this.
A factory, back then, often consisted of a vast array of mills and lathes. Either specifically adapted or with a bit of tooling added. One operation would be done on a given tool (sometimes several, but one was common).
The time and motion guys noticed that a lot of time was taken in finding the spanner to undo the bolts holding the piece bing worked on and to do them up again. The first idea was to add a tool rack next to each machine.
The second, better idea was to add a fixed, long bar to the machine, which would clamp and unclamp the piece, to a specified level of clamping force, in one easy motion. This reduced the time taken to set the piece up, reduced the physical work required and improved accuracy.
The government would be given punishment beatings from the electorate over and above any they were already due.
Yet another PB Not Happening Event.
I think that's about right. OK there are some more unpleasant economic shocks in the pipeline, particularly house price falls, but I suspect moderate economic incompetence is now priced in. So voters have now "priced in":
- Moderate economic incompetence
- Failing public services
- Low level corruption
- Batshit crazy backbenchers
- Home office ballsups
The only dominoes yet to fall would be for moderate economic incompetence to become catastrophic, or for a major failure managing a crisis (a natural disaster or national security issue).
So for any further increase in the gap we are then left with Labour increasing enthusiasm for their programme. But I have a feeling that any growing enthusiasm for or comfort with Labour is going to be offset by an unwind in the mid term protest vote and a decline in REFUK.
They said that would mean a more generous pay settlement if more money could be found through savings. “There will be more money available if we can work together.”
Seems to confirm the original point. No new money will be made available so staff have to come up with productivity gains in order for their salaries to be cut a bit less in real terms than currently planned.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/09/barclay-agreed-to-discuss-lump-sum-or-back-pay-for-nhs-workers-say-sources
The other option is if somehow Boris makes a comeback attempt and we see some more serious conservative infighting. But generally agree - this must be close to the Tory floor.
God help us!
Edit. Maybe Barclay is backtracking on his position, which is good, and worth noting if that's the case
So yep some people would be happy with Bozo returning as PM but a lot more people will be weary of him compared to 2019 so he won't be the great solution he was then.
And his reappearance would probably rejuvenate Farage more than anything else possibly could.
That being said, it will take something completely unforeseen to make it happen. As for the date of the election, I say 2025. Apparently the wisdom of the right is that having had a good kicking in the polls, the medicine isn't some ointment for their sore polls but to go Harder and Faster. Remember that FUKUK plan to run candidates in every GB constituency, so even the stupidest of Tory MP will face a challenge from the right.
So if the going is still perilous I can see them forcing through one last throw of the dice. Sunak gone, Bozza back, and a flurry of "I will dance naked for cash" policies announced at conference and railroaded through parliament. Why can't we have an election, because the new PM needs to get these urgent people's policies through. And if parliament tries to block them, simply run them as SIs. The courts won't get to them before the election and the Mail / GBeebies will go to town about leftie lawyers. And a Christmas campaign suits the Big Dog.
So why not. As late in January 2025 as legally permissible.
I do apologise for my earlier rather foolish question, namely, "is Johnson on manouvres?" Of course, it is well known Johnson is always on manouvres.
Labour leads by 22%, up two points from last week.
Westminster VI (8 January):
Labour 48% (+1)
Conservative 26% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 9% (-3)
Reform UK 6% (+1)
Green 5% (+2)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 2-3 January
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1612494546666983437?s=46&t=MDFpoM7HHBQVV6a7XZyIkQ
That's the thing isn't it, most of us are still afraid of Johnson despite his spectacular fall from grace. Seeing him return to PM would be like watching a long past his prime Botham stride out on to the pitch in the final innings of a test. You'd know you could almost certainly get him out cheaply but that niggling doubt would still be there in the background.
We then get the return of the King. Who needs a little time to chop up large chunks of red meat. So not only will he go as late as he can, he can quote precedent as John Major did the same. And with the passing of the decades he's practically a saint so it must be ok.
Think about the start of the Tory Christmas campaign Boris laying out the Christmas Presents he is bringing you. The Sun / Mail et al will have a Christmas Tree graphic. And anyone who attacks these gifts as being stupid / backwards / uncosted will be attacked as The Grinch.
A Christmas campaign is a disastrous idea. Unless its Boris throwing presents at the public. If the alternative is they are going to lose anyway under Sunak, why not throw the dice one last time?
LLG:RefCon 62:32, unchanged from last time. Intra-bloc churn in other words.
But I am also certain Boris has 0% chance of ousting Sunak. Unfortunately for Boris, his political career ends in embarrassing failure. No chance of tackling what will forever be unfinished business in his mind.
He could be playing his cards very close to his chest, but somehow I doubt it.
So it is certainly possible Rishi could do a Brown and deprive Starmer of a majority even if Starmer like Cameron still becomes PM
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=31&LAB=40&LIB=10&Reform=7&Green=5&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2023/01/tories-deluded-boris-johnson-return-conservatives
At which point does self-preservation kick in? You need to do *something* to avoid a heavy defeat, so go back to the frontman in your greatest hits era. He may still lose the election and your seat, but its "may" rather than will if Sunak calls an October election...
Marie-Ann Detests Tories 🇺🇦 🇪🇺 🇬🇧
@MarieAnnUK
Oxford: That awesome moment when Boris Johnson wanted a quiet visit to his old college for lunch. Students found out and had other ideas.
https://twitter.com/MarieAnnUK/status/1612174913598627840
Banner saying RACIST BORIS WHAT DEAD ANIMALS HAVE YOU FUCKED?
I worry about Oxford students, or do they know something we don't?
Polling suggests a moderate swing in London, where there aren't many marginals.
Bigger swings in the North and Wales where there are.
The same wouldn't apply in 2024.
But desperate men and women in desperate times do desperate things.
There's one possibility re Johnson which I rate less outlandish than I think most people do - he returns as LOTO after the GE. I wouldn't rule that out.
Although it highlights something I've pointed out for a while which is that the best think Rishi could do would be to allow the Parliamentary Standards Committee to make an example of Bozo to the extent that Labour can run a recall petition.
He'll be 60 at the next election. Would he want 5 years as LOTO for an election at age 65 to be PM till he's 70?
Maybe. But doesn't fit well with me.