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Brexit: The great turd blossom? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2023 in General
Brexit: The great turd blossom? – politicalbetting.com

Around 1 in 6 Leave voters now say the UK was wrong to vote to leave the EU. Why have they changed their minds?"Things have got worse": 25%Economy/rising costs: 19%"We were lied to"/hasn't turned out as expected: 11%Impact on trade/business: 10%https://t.co/TEnGDa8I5h pic.twitter.com/tELqKiIViZ

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Comments

  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,665
    First.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Second rate, like Brexit
  • WillGWillG Posts: 1,993
    Every time there is actually an election debate on the European Union, the pro-EU side loses. Happened in 2015 with the referendum promise, happened in 2016 with the referendum, happened in 2019 with the Brexit deal. Going further back, even three times winner Blair had to abandon a referendum on Lisbon as he knew he would lose it. Even someone as divisive and toxic as Nigel Farage could handily win a public debate on this topic with a BBC audience.

    It's hilarious that even now Remainers think they can turn 38% starting support for their position into a majority. A big part of it is the way they stereotype their opponents and misunderstand their positions. For example on the Euro, actually skeptics aren't imperial nostalgics who get warm and fuzzy to see the monarch's head on their coins. They actually don't want a basket case of a currency union with unemployment almost double ours.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    WillG said:

    Every time there is actually an election debate on the European Union, the pro-EU side loses. Happened in 2015 with the referendum promise, happened in 2016 with the referendum, happened in 2019 with the Brexit deal. Going further back, even three times winner Blair had to abandon a referendum on Lisbon as he knew he would lose it. Even someone as divisive and toxic as Nigel Farage could handily win a public debate on this topic with a BBC audience.

    It's hilarious that even now Remainers think they can turn 38% starting support for their position into a majority. A big part of it is the way they stereotype their opponents and misunderstand their positions. For example on the Euro, actually skeptics aren't imperial nostalgics who get warm and fuzzy to see the monarch's head on their coins. They actually don't want a basket case of a currency union with unemployment almost double ours.

    38% is a majority already if only 35% are expressing the contrary opinion. Yes, there’s still a lot of people who are uncertain, with only 73% of people asked currently having an opinion one way or the other - but then the turnout in the last referendum was 72% and it isn’t unreasonable to think that those who don’t know or can’t decide will be the non-voters.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122
    IanB2 said:

    WillG said:

    Every time there is actually an election debate on the European Union, the pro-EU side loses. Happened in 2015 with the referendum promise, happened in 2016 with the referendum, happened in 2019 with the Brexit deal. Going further back, even three times winner Blair had to abandon a referendum on Lisbon as he knew he would lose it. Even someone as divisive and toxic as Nigel Farage could handily win a public debate on this topic with a BBC audience.

    It's hilarious that even now Remainers think they can turn 38% starting support for their position into a majority. A big part of it is the way they stereotype their opponents and misunderstand their positions. For example on the Euro, actually skeptics aren't imperial nostalgics who get warm and fuzzy to see the monarch's head on their coins. They actually don't want a basket case of a currency union with unemployment almost double ours.

    38% is a majority already if only 35% are expressing the contrary opinion. Yes, there’s still a lot of people who are uncertain, with only 73% of people asked currently having an opinion one way or the other - but then the turnout in the last referendum was 72% and it isn’t unreasonable to think that those who don’t know or can’t decide will be the non-voters.
    2016 is waving at you frantically......
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited January 2023
    The lead for Rejoin plus freedom of movement is little different to the narrow Remain leads in most polls pre the 2016 referendum which Remain won. Had freedom of movement not been an issue and Blair imposed some transition controls on free movement from the new accession nations then Remain would likely have won anyway.

    The Euro is unlikely to be on the cards even if we rejoined but if it was Stay Out would probably have a poll lead
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    edited January 2023
    Great piece @TSE

    I mentioned a few months back that I thought it was inevitable we will rejoin eventually. That may come sooner rather than later.

    Brexit has been an unmitigated disaster.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    I think the scenario is this.

    Starmer wins an outright Labour majority, governs competently, the country slowly begins to recover, and at some point towards the end of the first term he begins making noises about the EU.

    That then goes on the manifesto for a Labour 2nd term: that he will offer it back to the country in a referendum.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    And Freedom of Movement is an example of you don't know what you've got until you've lost it.

    What a f-ing cock up Brexit is.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    edited January 2023
    Heathener said:

    I think the scenario is this.

    Starmer wins an outright Labour majority, governs competently, the country slowly begins to recover, and at some point towards the end of the first term he begins making noises about the EU.

    That then goes on the manifesto for a Labour 2nd term: that he will offer it back to the country in a referendum.

    Why bother with a referendum? Ted didn’t.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    edited January 2023
    tlg86 said:

    Heathener said:

    I think the scenario is this.

    Starmer wins an outright Labour majority, governs competently, the country slowly begins to recover, and at some point towards the end of the first term he begins making noises about the EU.

    That then goes on the manifesto for a Labour 2nd term: that he will offer it back to the country in a referendum.

    Why bother with a referendum? Ted didn’t.
    I see your point: just make it a de facto commitment of the manifesto but on balance I think it's probably important.

    Actually you may be right. Referenda are nearly always bad.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Rejoining with no referendum, especially if winning party gets under 50% of the vote, is a fantastic way to give an immediate leave (again) campaign moral justification given we left after a referendum.

    If pro-EU types actually want us to stay in then getting the authority of a referendum is helpful. The alternative, scummy, way of making it impossible to leave by integrating us as much as possible as rapidly would just piss people off even more.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    algarkirk said:

    The idea that currency is about what cash and notes look like rather than who makes the political decisions about fiscal and monetary matters, who is your banker of last resort, who might you bale out - ie which powers are in charge of large bits of your life - is risible.

    There is a case for the Euro, but 'the cashless society' is not it.

    As a question of economics, obviously the issues around the single currency are (almost) the same whether we have cash or not, but I suspect it is true that when there is a generation that has grown up seeing money simply as numbers on a webpage, a campaign like Hague’s ‘save the £’ would have a lot less emotional traction with the person in the street.
  • Here's the age breakdown for the "thumbs on the scale" version of the question. (And mentioning the disadvantages of one side but nothing else is putting your thumbs on the scale, no doubt calibrated in pounds and ounces.)



    Like pretty much every other poll, Brexit comes out largely as a project of one, very distinctive, generation.
  • Heathener said:

    tlg86 said:

    Heathener said:

    I think the scenario is this.

    Starmer wins an outright Labour majority, governs competently, the country slowly begins to recover, and at some point towards the end of the first term he begins making noises about the EU.

    That then goes on the manifesto for a Labour 2nd term: that he will offer it back to the country in a referendum.

    Why bother with a referendum? Ted didn’t.
    I see your point: just make it a de facto commitment of the manifesto but on balance I think it's probably important.

    Actually you may be right. Referenda are nearly always bad.
    Depends how you use them.

    If it is to find out what the public thinks on a 50:50ish issue, they are pretty toxic. The stakes are high, campaigners are tempted to do foolish things (yes I am looking at you, Cummings) to squeeze out a win, the losing side won't have lost by much.

    If it's to confirm something that's kind of been decided unconsciously, the dynamics are different. Practically, they don't have much use, except maybe to allow opponents to quietly fold away their tents after a 2:1 defeat.

    And in the case of Brexit, those numbers are still a fair way off.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728
    The only real opportunity that Brexit has created is the opportunity to rejoin the EU.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728
    Terrific @JasmineCC_95 piece on why Tory MPs (and No10) are getting the willies over Reform Party (UKIP 3.0)…but this #brexit “betrayal” narrative from Tice is so toxic for Sunak because it doesn’t have a real-world fix. Just more madness like REUL bill

    https://on.ft.com/3CtKwO0 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1611996240987693056/photo/1
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Here we go again…

    The Scottish government is on a collision course with the courts again as it prepares legislation criminalising conversion therapy, according to a KC.

    Double silk Aidan O’Neill KC has warned that the proposals would be outside the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament.

    The SNP-Green alliance is considering plans to outlaw any activity – including parental chats, prayer and preaching – deemed to be an attempt to change a person’s sexuality or gender identity.….

    “LGBT people are rightly protected from physical and verbal abuse by existing law just like anyone else. But these proposals go much, much further. The Scottish government is considering a law that could criminalise churches and gender-critical feminists alike simply because their conversations around sex and gender don’t conform to a narrow, state-approved brand of LGBT politics.

    “The report advocates a new criminal offence that does not require any proof or intention of harm. It will be illegal to say the ‘wrong thing’ even if it is totally harmless. Aidan O’Neill refers to this as a ‘strict liability’ offence where there is no need for any criminal intent in order to be found guilty.”


    https://www.scottishlegal.com/articles/kc-finds-scottish-governments-conversion-therapy-proposals-draconian
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096

    Here YOU go again…

    I've corrected your post
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    Scott_xP said:

    Terrific @JasmineCC_95 piece on why Tory MPs (and No10) are getting the willies over Reform Party (UKIP 3.0)…but this #brexit “betrayal” narrative from Tice is so toxic for Sunak because it doesn’t have a real-world fix. Just more madness like REUL bill

    https://on.ft.com/3CtKwO0 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1611996240987693056/photo/1

    Yep this is one of the scenarios that could see a 2023 election. And, even if it doesn't, it may well contribute to the shellacking the tories are headed for.

    I'm far from certain the decision will lie in Sunak's hands.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042
    Sadly we have a Government that hasn't implemented Brexit. We're still aligned with all regulation, we still have agencies that follow EU writ regardless of the national interest, we seem to be nowhere on fish, we have signed up to the nascent EU army anyway, we are progressing the long term EU strategic projects like HS2, we have progressed with an energy strategy that links us to energy importation with the continent (a crazy strategy given recent events), rather than exploiting our huge resources to become energy independent. Implementation of borders and immigration policy is a mess. The one area where we scraped a win, vaccine development (because it was taken out of the hands of the blob), the lead has been thrown away and the blob has reestablished its death-like grip. That's not Brexit in any meaningful sense; it's an adjacent holding pen where the cattle can be prodded and coralled till they want to go back in. I am amazed and thrilled that pro-Brexit sentiment has been as resilient it has under these conditions.

    However, sadly for those responsible, I don't think it will lead to us rejoining - it's more likely to lead to their own position being called into question.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,911
    WillG said:

    Every time there is actually an election debate on the European Union, the pro-EU side loses. Happened in 2015 with the referendum promise, happened in 2016 with the referendum, happened in 2019 with the Brexit deal. Going further back, even three times winner Blair had to abandon a referendum on Lisbon as he knew he would lose it. Even someone as divisive and toxic as Nigel Farage could handily win a public debate on this topic with a BBC audience.

    It's hilarious that even now Remainers think they can turn 38% starting support for their position into a majority. A big part of it is the way they stereotype their opponents and misunderstand their positions. For example on the Euro, actually skeptics aren't imperial nostalgics who get warm and fuzzy to see the monarch's head on their coins. They actually don't want a basket case of a currency union with unemployment almost double ours.

    Brexiteers complain about the EU becoming a superstate but in the realm of monetary policy the problem is the opposite - the lack of an adequate centralised fiscal authority redistributing resources from rich to poor areas in a cyclical fashion is why the Euro Area isn't an optimal currency area (and would be even less so with us in it). Having said that, it is notable in recent decades how synchronised the monetary policy cycle has become across countries, which makes one wonder how different our monetary policy outcomes would be if our policy were set by the ECB not the BOE. High unemployment in Spain and Italy is I think much more a reflection of supply side issues than bring in the monetary union - it's hard to imagine an independent Bank of Italy running with lower interest rates than the ECB over the last decade, for instance. And unemployment in both Spain and Italy is lower than before they joined the euro. Personally I'm fairly relaxed over the currency issue.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    Trying to see things from Reform / Brexit POV ... what do they do?

    Labour are going to win. Whether that's outright or by coalition is possibly irrelevant to this. The tories WILL lose government.

    So what do Reform do right now? And what do the Red Wall tories do? They could shut up and lose.

    Or they could break anyway. What do they have to lose? If they can get a small handful of MPs into the Commons they may be able to stem the inevitable tide that will sweep up back into Europe.

    If I were them I'd bring down Sunak's Government this year. Show they've got balls and that they intend to fight for their cause.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,701
    Rejoin. Why would the EU accept us back ?

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Heathener said:

    Here YOU go again…

    I've corrected your post
    Nice try. As ever, no engagement (or understanding?) of the issue from you. What are you frightened of?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Taz said:

    Rejoin. Why would the EU accept us back ?

    Self interest.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Taz said:

    Rejoin. Why would the EU accept us back ?

    I think the EU will quite rightly want to see it as “the settled will” of the British people that they want to rejoin - as full fat members, not “half in, half out” as before, before entertaining discussions. A 52:48 referendum result wouldn’t swing it.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    I suspect 2023 is going to bring more political shockwaves.

    Tory right warns Rishi Sunak: this is the calm before our storm over small boats and Brexit
    As the PM tries to move on from ‘perma-crisis’, agitated former ministers promise big trouble ahead

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/08/tory-right-warns-sunak-calm-before-storm-small-boats-brexit

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096

    Taz said:

    Rejoin. Why would the EU accept us back ?

    I think the EU will quite rightly want to see it as “the settled will” of the British people that they want to rejoin - as full fat members, not “half in, half out” as before, before entertaining discussions. A 52:48 referendum result wouldn’t swing it.
    The ridiculous thing about this is that we've given up all our hard won opt-outs.

    So we're probably going to have to rejoin in a fuller form. Personally, as a committed European I'm okay with that, but I quite a few Brits won't be.

    On the subject of currency, I think @TSE was rather unfairly pilloried below for his comment on this. The desire to retain sterling is not just economics. Like a lot the Brexit debate, it's visceral, emotional, nationalistic. In fact, almost NONE of the Brexit argument was about factual economics, as has now been laid bare. It was political, emotional, nationalistic. It was not economic.

    If we're less and less clutching a little pound coin with ̶H̶M̶Q̶ HMK on it then the core connection is lost.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728
    edited January 2023
    Sky News have just launched the Westminster accounts

    Records of all outside interests of MPs

    Day 1 - earnings

    https://news.sky.com/story/westminster-accounts-mps-earn-17-1m-on-top-of-their-salaries-since-the-last-election-with-tories-taking-15-4m-12758768
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728
    Heathener said:

    It was political, emotional, nationalistic. It was not economic.

    The word missing from that list is nihilistic...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728
    🚨 Today Sky News & Tortoise launch a massive new project: The Westminster Accounts.

    Who funds our politics and our politicians? We've made it easier for EVERYONE to follow.

    First, the 17 million pounds in extra earnings made by in MPs in just 3 years.

    https://news.sky.com/story/westminster-accounts-mps-earn-17-1m-on-top-of-their-salaries-since-the-last-election-with-tories-taking-15-4m-12758768
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728
    Westminster Accounts: How to explore the database for yourself http://news.sky.com/story/westminster-accounts-how-to-explore-the-database-for-yourself-12781065
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    edited January 2023

    Heathener said:

    Here YOU go again…

    I've corrected your post
    What are you frightened of?
    Rude intemperate intolerant people who are full of bigotry and little intention to listen, let alone be kind and open.

    Sex and gender are so complex and these bear pit environments too readily simply turn into angry and hate-filled places where there's very little gentle engagement with all the nuances. I have in fact been on national television several times discussing the topic and I've written in the national press on it.

    On forums with some topics, as with Jehovah Witnesses, it's better to walk away.

    It's a female thing not to want to have a cock fight.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583

    Taz said:

    Rejoin. Why would the EU accept us back ?

    I think the EU will quite rightly want to see it as “the settled will” of the British people that they want to rejoin - as full fat members, not “half in, half out” as before, before entertaining discussions. A 52:48 referendum result wouldn’t swing it.
    Indeed, that's nowhere near a decisive enough margin. And I am not taking the p...,
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    Heathener said:

    I suspect 2023 is going to bring more political shockwaves.

    Tory right warns Rishi Sunak: this is the calm before our storm over small boats and Brexit
    As the PM tries to move on from ‘perma-crisis’, agitated former ministers promise big trouble ahead

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/08/tory-right-warns-sunak-calm-before-storm-small-boats-brexit

    I’ve no idea what they’re trying to achieve after inflicting us with Liz Truss.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,701
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Here YOU go again…

    I've corrected your post
    What are you frightened of?
    Rude intemperate intolerant people who are full of bigotry and little intention to listen, let alone be kind and open.

    Sex and gender are so complex and these bear pit environments simply turn into angry and hate-filled placed where there's very little gentle engagement with all the nuances.

    On forums with some topics, as with Jehovah Witnesses, it's better to walk away.

    It's a female thing not to want to have a cock fight.
    Yet here you are every day seeking exactly that.
  • Taz said:

    Rejoin. Why would the EU accept us back ?

    I think the EU will quite rightly want to see it as “the settled will” of the British people that they want to rejoin - as full fat members, not “half in, half out” as before, before entertaining discussions. A 52:48 referendum result wouldn’t swing it.
    True, though 52:48 rejoin is what you get if pollees are given "Stay out" talking points and nothing else. And, more significantly, the numbers are moving- it seems only one way.

    There's clearly a point where rejoin becomes popular enough that a) it's worth a major party embracing it and b) it needs serious institutional consideration. It's also clear that that point hasn't been reached yet. I wonder where it is? 70:30?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    we have signed up to the nascent EU army anyway

    The UK is out of EDA and PESCO (and were never in Eurocorps).
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,456

    Here's the age breakdown for the "thumbs on the scale" version of the question. (And mentioning the disadvantages of one side but nothing else is putting your thumbs on the scale, no doubt calibrated in pounds and ounces.)



    Like pretty much every other poll, Brexit comes out largely as a project of one, very distinctive, generation.

    I would like to see the 65+ broken down into 2 bands if it can be done with statistical accuracy. Anecdotally it certainly feels if there is a big variation in this group, although the trend in that table would imply I'm not correct.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122
    Jonathan said:

    Taz said:

    Rejoin. Why would the EU accept us back ?

    Self interest.
    I think that is right but why would the British people vote on order to once again be an immediate net contributor, accept FOM and a new currency all in the hope of future and unproven economic benefits. I'd vote yes bit i voted remain. I don't see the British doing it. Voters tend to be short term in their thinking and then repent at leisure.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,701

    Here we go again…

    The Scottish government is on a collision course with the courts again as it prepares legislation criminalising conversion therapy, according to a KC.

    Double silk Aidan O’Neill KC has warned that the proposals would be outside the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament.

    The SNP-Green alliance is considering plans to outlaw any activity – including parental chats, prayer and preaching – deemed to be an attempt to change a person’s sexuality or gender identity.….

    “LGBT people are rightly protected from physical and verbal abuse by existing law just like anyone else. But these proposals go much, much further. The Scottish government is considering a law that could criminalise churches and gender-critical feminists alike simply because their conversations around sex and gender don’t conform to a narrow, state-approved brand of LGBT politics.

    “The report advocates a new criminal offence that does not require any proof or intention of harm. It will be illegal to say the ‘wrong thing’ even if it is totally harmless. Aidan O’Neill refers to this as a ‘strict liability’ offence where there is no need for any criminal intent in order to be found guilty.”


    https://www.scottishlegal.com/articles/kc-finds-scottish-governments-conversion-therapy-proposals-draconian

    This is a shock

    https://twitter.com/lorraine2locked/status/1611738438545424389?s=61&t=JtpxVtpp_-EcbOHO4DKMnw
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Here YOU go again…

    I've corrected your post
    What are you frightened of?
    Rude intemperate intolerant people who are full of bigotry and little intention to listen, let alone be kind and open.

    Sex and gender are so complex and these bear pit environments too readily simply turn into angry and hate-filled places where there's very little gentle engagement with all the nuances. I have in fact been on national television several times discussing the topic and I've written in the national press on it.

    On forums with some topics, as with Jehovah Witnesses, it's better to walk away.

    It's a female thing not to want to have a cock fight.
    Once again, no engagement with the issue, just airy hand waving and virtue signalling. What is “being kind” about the proposed Scottish legislation? Answer will come there none - because you don’t want to engage with the issues.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728
    "With Rishi in No 10, we are heading into the long, cold and brutal wasteland of thankless opposition" https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nadine-dorries-says-conservatives-must-bring-back-boris_uk_63ba7c51e4b0fe267cb0eaca
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Scott_xP said:
    Mrs May is certainly “in the money”:


  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    We won't rejoin.

    Two main reasons. The first is the union remains a fight for supremacy between France and Germany. The second, and most important, is that we will be forced to rejoin on worse terms than we left - because of reason one.

  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,456
    WillG said:

    Every time there is actually an election debate on the European Union, the pro-EU side loses. Happened in 2015 with the referendum promise, happened in 2016 with the referendum, happened in 2019 with the Brexit deal. Going further back, even three times winner Blair had to abandon a referendum on Lisbon as he knew he would lose it. Even someone as divisive and toxic as Nigel Farage could handily win a public debate on this topic with a BBC audience.

    It's hilarious that even now Remainers think they can turn 38% starting support for their position into a majority. A big part of it is the way they stereotype their opponents and misunderstand their positions. For example on the Euro, actually skeptics aren't imperial nostalgics who get warm and fuzzy to see the monarch's head on their coins. They actually don't want a basket case of a currency union with unemployment almost double ours.

    I think you are doing what you accuse remainders of doing. You are deciding what leavers actually believe. I also believe it is a mistake to dismiss Farage as you do. Farage (much as I dislike his politics) has probably been more influential than any other politician in recent times.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    edited January 2023

    Taz said:

    Rejoin. Why would the EU accept us back ?

    I think the EU will quite rightly want to see it as “the settled will” of the British people that they want to rejoin - as full fat members, not “half in, half out” as before, before entertaining discussions. A 52:48 referendum result wouldn’t swing it.
    True, though 52:48 rejoin is what you get if pollees are given "Stay out" talking points and nothing else. And, more significantly, the numbers are moving- it seems only one way.

    There's clearly a point where rejoin becomes popular enough that a) it's worth a major party embracing it and b) it needs serious institutional consideration. It's also clear that that point hasn't been reached yet. I wonder where it is? 70:30?
    It also comes to a point where if you want to get elected you have to be willing to agree Brexit is a mistake and willing to reconcile to a greater or lesser extent. Ultimately parties have to go to where the voters are. You don't win elections telling voters that they are wrong.

    @Luckyguy1983 makes the case that Brexit support is failing because it hasn't been tried hard enough, and the failure of the 5 year plan is down to wreckers and Kulaks. In reality Brexit is at that stage where it consumes its own. Sunak was one of the original Leavers but was pilloried all summer for being a closet Remainer. It is hard not to enjoy a little Schadenfreude.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,701

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Here YOU go again…

    I've corrected your post
    What are you frightened of?
    Rude intemperate intolerant people who are full of bigotry and little intention to listen, let alone be kind and open.

    Sex and gender are so complex and these bear pit environments too readily simply turn into angry and hate-filled places where there's very little gentle engagement with all the nuances. I have in fact been on national television several times discussing the topic and I've written in the national press on it.

    On forums with some topics, as with Jehovah Witnesses, it's better to walk away.

    It's a female thing not to want to have a cock fight.
    Once again, no engagement with the issue, just airy hand waving and virtue signalling. What is “being kind” about the proposed Scottish legislation? Answer will come there none - because you don’t want to engage with the issues.
    Not just Scotland.

    There is no engagement. Just shouting down dissenters. That is this whole debate from the trans side.

    https://twitter.com/agingwhitegay/status/1611854584703766528?s=61&t=JtpxVtpp_-EcbOHO4DKMnw
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122
    Also who can forget the EU attitude since the vote.Yes their feelings were hurt but the sheer vindictive anger over the COVID vaccine was extraordinary with the AIA almost jetissoned at one point. There are many friends of the UK still bit within the Institution much hostility remains.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Taz said:

    Here we go again…

    The Scottish government is on a collision course with the courts again as it prepares legislation criminalising conversion therapy, according to a KC.

    Double silk Aidan O’Neill KC has warned that the proposals would be outside the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament.

    The SNP-Green alliance is considering plans to outlaw any activity – including parental chats, prayer and preaching – deemed to be an attempt to change a person’s sexuality or gender identity.….

    “LGBT people are rightly protected from physical and verbal abuse by existing law just like anyone else. But these proposals go much, much further. The Scottish government is considering a law that could criminalise churches and gender-critical feminists alike simply because their conversations around sex and gender don’t conform to a narrow, state-approved brand of LGBT politics.

    “The report advocates a new criminal offence that does not require any proof or intention of harm. It will be illegal to say the ‘wrong thing’ even if it is totally harmless. Aidan O’Neill refers to this as a ‘strict liability’ offence where there is no need for any criminal intent in order to be found guilty.”


    https://www.scottishlegal.com/articles/kc-finds-scottish-governments-conversion-therapy-proposals-draconian

    This is a shock

    https://twitter.com/lorraine2locked/status/1611738438545424389?s=61&t=JtpxVtpp_-EcbOHO4DKMnw
    No one saw that coming! Though in fairness to our friends in the North, the E&W Prison policy seems just as poor - only the Scottish one is getting more attention because of the SNP’s legislative agenda.
  • kjh said:

    Here's the age breakdown for the "thumbs on the scale" version of the question. (And mentioning the disadvantages of one side but nothing else is putting your thumbs on the scale, no doubt calibrated in pounds and ounces.)



    Like pretty much every other poll, Brexit comes out largely as a project of one, very distinctive, generation.

    I would like to see the 65+ broken down into 2 bands if it can be done with statistical accuracy. Anecdotally it certainly feels if there is a big variation in this group, although the trend in that table would imply I'm not correct.
    There have been finer-grained polls, certainly to interpret 2016. From memory, peak Brexit was the immediate post war Boomer cohort- people with direct experience of WW2 were a bit more remainy.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,456
    felix said:

    Jonathan said:

    Taz said:

    Rejoin. Why would the EU accept us back ?

    Self interest.
    I think that is right but why would the British people vote on order to once again be an immediate net contributor, accept FOM and a new currency all in the hope of future and unproven economic benefits. I'd vote yes bit i voted remain. I don't see the British doing it. Voters tend to be short term in their thinking and then repent at leisure.
    I also would vote yes, but they are powerful arguments why leave might win again.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    CD13 said:

    We won't rejoin.

    Two main reasons. The first is the union remains a fight for supremacy between France and Germany. The second, and most important, is that we will be forced to rejoin on worse terms than we left - because of reason one.

    I think we will Rejoin, but talks won't start for another decade or so. I also think it very likely to be supported by the Conservative Party after a couple of terms in opposition reverting to the policy it held for the 50 years until 2016 of being pro-business and pro-EU.

    At that point there will be a national consensus to rejoin the SM at least and as we will want a seat at the top table, that means Rejoin.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,701
    kjh said:

    felix said:

    Jonathan said:

    Taz said:

    Rejoin. Why would the EU accept us back ?

    Self interest.
    I think that is right but why would the British people vote on order to once again be an immediate net contributor, accept FOM and a new currency all in the hope of future and unproven economic benefits. I'd vote yes bit i voted remain. I don't see the British doing it. Voters tend to be short term in their thinking and then repent at leisure.
    I also would vote yes, but they are powerful arguments why leave might win again.
    I don’t think I’d bother voting either way.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,456

    kjh said:

    Here's the age breakdown for the "thumbs on the scale" version of the question. (And mentioning the disadvantages of one side but nothing else is putting your thumbs on the scale, no doubt calibrated in pounds and ounces.)



    Like pretty much every other poll, Brexit comes out largely as a project of one, very distinctive, generation.

    I would like to see the 65+ broken down into 2 bands if it can be done with statistical accuracy. Anecdotally it certainly feels if there is a big variation in this group, although the trend in that table would imply I'm not correct.
    There have been finer-grained polls, certainly to interpret 2016. From memory, peak Brexit was the immediate post war Boomer cohort- people with direct experience of WW2 were a bit more remainy.
    Thank you. That surprises me. It is probably because people I mix with are far far from representative but the 65 to 75 I know are very remain and the 80 plus very leave.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728
    When we are the sick man of Europe again the calls to rejoin will be deafening

    No mainstream party will be arguing to stay out

    There will be some debate about whether Brexit was always going to be this shit, or if it was betrayed by reamoners and never implemented properly, but only by obvious headbangers
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    Heathener said:

    I think the scenario is this.

    Starmer wins an outright Labour majority, governs competently, the country slowly begins to recover, and at some point towards the end of the first term he begins making noises about the EU.

    That then goes on the manifesto for a Labour 2nd term: that he will offer it back to the country in a referendum.

    You think Starmer will be bolder over rejoining the EU than Blair was over joining the Euro?

    I very much doubt it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    felix said:

    Jonathan said:

    Taz said:

    Rejoin. Why would the EU accept us back ?

    Self interest.
    I think that is right but why would the British people vote on order to once again be an immediate net contributor, accept FOM and a new currency all in the hope of future and unproven economic benefits. I'd vote yes bit i voted remain. I don't see the British doing it. Voters tend to be short term in their thinking and then repent at leisure.
    I think the issue at the moment is “things are a bit shit” (for multiple reasons, including, but not remotely limited to, BREXIT) and it’s easy and simple to “blame Brexit” especially among Remain supporters. If or when conditions in the U.K. improve, then attitudes may change. I don’t think “economics” drove the vote to leave and while it may be behind current disenchantment with Brexit I’m not sure it will be as strong a persuader to rejoin as some of its supporters hope.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    edited January 2023

    kjh said:

    Here's the age breakdown for the "thumbs on the scale" version of the question. (And mentioning the disadvantages of one side but nothing else is putting your thumbs on the scale, no doubt calibrated in pounds and ounces.)



    Like pretty much every other poll, Brexit comes out largely as a project of one, very distinctive, generation.

    I would like to see the 65+ broken down into 2 bands if it can be done with statistical accuracy. Anecdotally it certainly feels if there is a big variation in this group, although the trend in that table would imply I'm not correct.
    There have been finer-grained polls, certainly to interpret 2016. From memory, peak Brexit was the immediate post war Boomer cohort- people with direct experience of WW2 were a bit more remainy.
    Not many voters left with real memories of WW2. Even my 87 year old dad only really remembers watching Liverpool burn, plotting battle reports on his maps and scrounging chewing gum off the Yanks as a schoolboy.

    While certainly there is a Boomer-Brexiteer cohort, that is too simplistic an analysis. Even in the most convinced parts of Leaverstan around a third of people voted Remain, and vice versa in Remania. This was a split in all generations and social classes, ages and backgrounds, one reason why such an uncivil civil war is so hard to heal.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728

    If or when conditions in the U.K. improve, then attitudes may change.

    But that's the problem.

    The UK is the only G20 Country (except Russia) where conditions are not improving

    The only Country in history to impose sanctions on ourselves
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Heathener said:

    I think the scenario is this.

    Starmer wins an outright Labour majority, governs competently, the country slowly begins to recover, and at some point towards the end of the first term he begins making noises about the EU.

    That then goes on the manifesto for a Labour 2nd term: that he will offer it back to the country in a referendum.

    You think Starmer will be bolder over rejoining the EU than Blair was over joining the Euro?

    I very much doubt it.
    So do I, but rejoining the SM could appear in a 2029 manifesto for the second term, and I think likely to clinch that second term.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited January 2023

    felix said:

    Jonathan said:

    Taz said:

    Rejoin. Why would the EU accept us back ?

    Self interest.
    I think that is right but why would the British people vote on order to once again be an immediate net contributor, accept FOM and a new currency all in the hope of future and unproven economic benefits. I'd vote yes bit i voted remain. I don't see the British doing it. Voters tend to be short term in their thinking and then repent at leisure.
    I think the issue at the moment is “things are a bit shit” (for multiple reasons, including, but not remotely limited to, BREXIT) and it’s easy and simple to “blame Brexit” especially among Remain supporters. If or when conditions in the U.K. improve, then attitudes may change. I don’t think “economics” drove the vote to leave and while it may be behind current disenchantment with Brexit I’m not sure it will be as strong a persuader to rejoin as some of its supporters hope.
    I do think economics drove (some of) the vote to leave. Remember brexit referendum voting was high and that a lot of the leave voters don’t usually vote.

    And I will refer back to my anecdote from Leyland on the day of the vote. Phone call from the presiding officer o her break saying that a lot of people were asking how to vote and the story of how everyone hoped for jobs at the new Aldi only for it to be opened and full of Eastern European workers.

    And remember that the one area of the few areas Bozo focussed on was increasing the minimum wage.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728

    Scott_xP said:

    When we are the sick man of Europe again the calls to rejoin will be deafening

    What evidence is there that “joining the EEC” cured “the sick man of Europe” rather than say, North Sea Oil and the Thatcher reforms?
    The Single Market is arguably Thatcher's greatest reform
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728
    Rishi Sunak won’t answer whether or not he’s registered with a private GP.

    “Healthcare is something that is somewhat private” to him, he says. “It’s a distraction from what the real issue is”.

    #BBCLauraK
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Scott_xP said:

    When we are the sick man of Europe again the calls to rejoin will be deafening

    No mainstream party will be arguing to stay out

    There will be some debate about whether Brexit was always going to be this shit, or if it was betrayed by reamoners and never implemented properly, but only by obvious headbangers

    When? You mean you don't think we are now?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited January 2023
    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    Here's the age breakdown for the "thumbs on the scale" version of the question. (And mentioning the disadvantages of one side but nothing else is putting your thumbs on the scale, no doubt calibrated in pounds and ounces.)



    Like pretty much every other poll, Brexit comes out largely as a project of one, very distinctive, generation.

    I would like to see the 65+ broken down into 2 bands if it can be done with statistical accuracy. Anecdotally it certainly feels if there is a big variation in this group, although the trend in that table would imply I'm not correct.
    There have been finer-grained polls, certainly to interpret 2016. From memory, peak Brexit was the immediate post war Boomer cohort- people with direct experience of WW2 were a bit more remainy.
    Not many voters left with real memories of WW2. Even my 87 year old dad only really remembers watching Liverpool burn, plotting battle reports on his maps and scrounging chewing gum off the Yanks as a schoolboy.

    While certainly there is a Boomer-Brexiteer cohort, that is too simplistic an analysis. Even in the most convinced parts of Leaverstan around a third of people voted Remain, and vice versa in Remania. This was a split in all generations and social classes, ages and backgrounds, one reason why such an uncivil civil war is so hard to heal.
    And remember under 35 non graduates voted Leave while over 65 graduates voted Remain.

    The divide was even more class based than age based because of immigration
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728
    tlg86 said:

    When? You mean you don't think we are now?

    The tipping point is probably when it is front page news in the Telegraph
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    Foxy said:

    CD13 said:

    We won't rejoin.

    Two main reasons. The first is the union remains a fight for supremacy between France and Germany. The second, and most important, is that we will be forced to rejoin on worse terms than we left - because of reason one.

    I think we will Rejoin, but talks won't start for another decade or so. I also think it very likely to be supported by the Conservative Party after a couple of terms in opposition reverting to the policy it held for the 50 years until 2016 of being pro-business and pro-EU.

    At that point there will be a national consensus to rejoin the SM at least and as we will want a seat at the top table, that means Rejoin.
    This is the obvious trajectory. Starmer gets us to BRINO. The tories spend a term or two in opposition sucking the ladycock of their bespectacled BIPOC She-Corbyn while we wait for another few hundred thousand boomers to die. At that point the tories will be the party of Rejoin.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583
    Scott_xP said:

    Rishi Sunak won’t answer whether or not he’s registered with a private GP.

    “Healthcare is something that is somewhat private” to him, he says. “It’s a distraction from what the real issue is”.

    #BBCLauraK

    Why should he endure the chaos us taxpayers experience? As a former non-dom husband why shouldn't he go private? Buy cheap, buy twice.
  • Your regular reminder that it is not possible for a party to have a policy of rejoining the Single Market or EU.

    It is of course possible to have a policy of applying to rejoin, but that's far from being the same thing.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,333

    Scott_xP said:

    When we are the sick man of Europe again the calls to rejoin will be deafening

    What evidence is there that “joining the EEC” cured “the sick man of Europe” rather than say, North Sea Oil and the Thatcher reforms?
    Thatcher P&&d away North Sea oil on paying for benefits caused by closing the mines without investment in replacement industries.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728
    Rishi Sunak on the Kuenssberg show does have the feel of a management consultant desperately throwing out new ideas to try and get the client to extend his contract.
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1612015085278449664
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,678
    Heathener said:

    tlg86 said:

    Heathener said:

    I think the scenario is this.

    Starmer wins an outright Labour majority, governs competently, the country slowly begins to recover, and at some point towards the end of the first term he begins making noises about the EU.

    That then goes on the manifesto for a Labour 2nd term: that he will offer it back to the country in a referendum.

    Why bother with a referendum? Ted didn’t.
    I see your point: just make it a de facto commitment of the manifesto but on balance I think it's probably important.

    Actually you may be right. Referenda are nearly always bad.
    Referenda are always good. Surely its a good idea to ask the people.
    What is a bad idea is having an uncertain option on the table, assuming it'll never win.
    The UK is bad at doing these as Prime Ministers just assume their preferred option will win and therefore they won't have to deal with the fallout of the other option.
    In the UK wide three referendum, we had:
    1975 - Luckily 'In' won. An 'Out' win would've been a problem as whilst we had only been in the EU for two years, what would Out have looked like? Completely out? Return to EFTA? Something else?
    2011 - Was actually a good referendum - Two clear options. FPTP or AV.
    2016 - The less said the better as the EU had become much more by then. The 'Out' option ranged from EEA to 'Nuclear attack on France' and everything in between.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    CD13 said:

    We won't rejoin.

    Two main reasons. The first is the union remains a fight for supremacy between France and Germany. The second, and most important, is that we will be forced to rejoin on worse terms than we left - because of reason one.

    I think we will Rejoin, but talks won't start for another decade or so. I also think it very likely to be supported by the Conservative Party after a couple of terms in opposition reverting to the policy it held for the 50 years until 2016 of being pro-business and pro-EU.

    At that point there will be a national consensus to rejoin the SM at least and as we will want a seat at the top table, that means Rejoin.
    This is the obvious trajectory. Starmer gets us to BRINO. The tories spend a term or two in opposition sucking the ladycock of their bespectacled BIPOC She-Corbyn while we wait for another few hundred thousand boomers to die. At that point the tories will be the party of Rejoin.
    I wouldn't put it in quite such colourful language, but that is the gist.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Rishi Sunak won’t answer whether or not he’s registered with a private GP.

    “Healthcare is something that is somewhat private” to him, he says. “It’s a distraction from what the real issue is”.

    #BBCLauraK

    I think we all assume his healthcare is more than somewhat private; he's not getting any benefit of the doubt for not admitting it.

    And saying "private" not "personal" looks like a big Freudian slip to me. Sometimes his inexperience as a politician really shows.
  • Scott_xP said:

    When we are the sick man of Europe again the calls to rejoin will be deafening

    What evidence is there that “joining the EEC” cured “the sick man of Europe” rather than say, North Sea Oil and the Thatcher reforms?
    Thatcher P&&d away North Sea oil on paying for benefits caused by closing the mines without investment in replacement industries.
    That old nonsense again...

    https://mobile.twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1423633648264351744
  • Sadly we have a Government that hasn't implemented Brexit. We're still aligned with all regulation, we still have agencies that follow EU writ regardless of the national interest, we seem to be nowhere on fish, we have signed up to the nascent EU army anyway, we are progressing the long term EU strategic projects like HS2, we have progressed with an energy strategy that links us to energy importation with the continent (a crazy strategy given recent events), rather than exploiting our huge resources to become energy independent. Implementation of borders and immigration policy is a mess. The one area where we scraped a win, vaccine development (because it was taken out of the hands of the blob), the lead has been thrown away and the blob has reestablished its death-like grip. That's not Brexit in any meaningful sense; it's an adjacent holding pen where the cattle can be prodded and coralled till they want to go back in. I am amazed and thrilled that pro-Brexit sentiment has been as resilient it has under these conditions.

    However, sadly for those responsible, I don't think it will lead to us rejoining - it's more likely to lead to their own position being called into question.

    Your basic problem is that you don't know what Brexit is. The government have implemented Brexit - we left the EU. Everything else are options having done so. And there are multiple conflicting ideals about which options should have supremacy. You can't have a bonfire of EU regulations and standards AND have better jobs, pay and conditions - they are directly contradictory.

    This is the reason why Brexit Betrayal is the legacy skip fire of British politics. I think some in the red wall have woken up to this - that the Tories are foaming at the mouth wanting to remove workers rights and worsen their conditions isn't the Brexit they voted for. Similarly having control over borders yet failing to build border infrastructure or staff one isn't what anyone voted for - but it is sovereign choice to elect an inept shitshow of a government, is it not?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited January 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    Here's the age breakdown for the "thumbs on the scale" version of the question. (And mentioning the disadvantages of one side but nothing else is putting your thumbs on the scale, no doubt calibrated in pounds and ounces.)



    Like pretty much every other poll, Brexit comes out largely as a project of one, very distinctive, generation.

    I would like to see the 65+ broken down into 2 bands if it can be done with statistical accuracy. Anecdotally it certainly feels if there is a big variation in this group, although the trend in that table would imply I'm not correct.
    There have been finer-grained polls, certainly to interpret 2016. From memory, peak Brexit was the immediate post war Boomer cohort- people with direct experience of WW2 were a bit more remainy.
    Not many voters left with real memories of WW2. Even my 87 year old dad only really remembers watching Liverpool burn, plotting battle reports on his maps and scrounging chewing gum off the Yanks as a schoolboy.

    While certainly there is a Boomer-Brexiteer cohort, that is too simplistic an analysis. Even in the most convinced parts of Leaverstan around a third of people voted Remain, and vice versa in Remania. This was a split in all generations and social classes, ages and backgrounds, one reason why such an uncivil civil war is so hard to heal.
    And remember under 35 non graduates voted Leave while over 65 graduates voted Remain.

    The divide was even more class based than age based because of immigration
    70% over 55 with a degree voted Remain, just 37% of 18 to 34s with GCSEs or less voted Remain

    https://anthonybmasters.medium.com/age-education-and-the-eu-referendum-ca7525be173d
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Here YOU go again…

    I've corrected your post
    What are you frightened of?
    Rude intemperate intolerant people who are full of bigotry and little intention to listen, let alone be kind and open.

    Sex and gender are so complex and these bear pit environments too readily simply turn into angry and hate-filled places where there's very little gentle engagement with all the nuances. I have in fact been on national television several times discussing the topic and I've written in the national press on it.

    On forums with some topics, as with Jehovah Witnesses, it's better to walk away.

    It's a female thing not to want to have a cock fight.
    Definitely a nutjob. Nothing complex about sex you halfwit , you are either male or female. On gender you can imagine whatever fantasy you want.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    Jonathan said:

    Brexit is an institution. An institution that is yet to deliver any benefits whatsoever. There is nothing on the horizon. Whether you were Leave or Remain the sensible thing to do is to ask what was the point.

    In an era where growth is the priority, Brexit is an institution holding us back.

    This simply isn't the case. Brexit has ended our domestic politics being dominated by federalist initiatives of the European Commission and the European Council, and questionable rulings of the European Court of Justice. It has ended any further moves to Ever Closer Union. And, it has given us more flexibility in foreign policy, as we are no longer bound by the CFSP, which meant we could act faster on things Ukraine and, also, weren't under political pressure to join the EU vaccine programme (heavily criticised on here at the time) which allowed us to do our own thing.

    Yes, it also raises non-tarrif barriers in trading with the continent and the price of that agility, dynamism and independence is we have to accept those costs and take the risk of leading by example from the outside, rather than slowly influencing behind closed doors - not always successfully - within the European institutions.

    Both positions are perfectly reasonable ones to take. The EU also suffers from high inflation, sclerotic growth and higher unemployment- even within the eurozone - and it's own web of political problems.

    Readmission would reduce the UK-EU trading barriers, at the price of all the political costs listed above, and that's about it. It would solve none of our short, medium and long-term problems and once we were back in we'd be having exactly the same frustrated debates as before.

    It is not a solution to anything. The reason emotions are so high about it is because Values - the Rejoin movement are hoping to exploit present frustrations over the economic situation to further their internationalist political objectives, and possibly then some, and it's as plain as day to anyone who's looking properly.

  • The challenge for all politicians is to Move On from Brexit. You don't get anywhere in politics trying to refight a battle you lost - and both the remain and leave absolutists believe they lost.

    I cannot see how there will be any consensus about a move to rejoin the EU so it puzzles me that it keeps being raised. We left, it will remain a political football until the giffers die off so we're not going back until a big majority across politics wants it. Not that the "EU" will stand still - who knows what it will be in the 2040s when we're asking to join?

    What we can do is accept the reality of where we find ourselves and take action to fix it. The 2023 round of the Tory Civil War will be instructive. The mouth foamers plan insurrection to smash through the removal of "EU regulations" stopping them exploiting red wall peons for bigger profits. As the antithesis of what the WWC thought Brexit was to deliver, this will not only hurt the Tory poll ratings but also shift the wider thinking about where we are and where we are going.

    You will never make wazzock Brexit absolutists happy. Its always betrayal, always has been since we joined, and still is now that we "Sadly we have a Government that hasn't implemented Brexit". And will continue to be betrayal whatever happens. We're already seeing the return of FUKUK as a political threat to the Tories and that will only grow. They can't be bought off like last time as what they want is impossible to deliver. So watch as FUK candidates destroy the Tory majorities in seats across the country.

    That isn't to then deliver a cakewalk for Labour. People are ANGRY and things have got worse. Delivery needs to be sizeable and rapid and frankly isn't going to happen because we lack imagination in our polity.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,456
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    kjh said:

    Here's the age breakdown for the "thumbs on the scale" version of the question. (And mentioning the disadvantages of one side but nothing else is putting your thumbs on the scale, no doubt calibrated in pounds and ounces.)



    Like pretty much every other poll, Brexit comes out largely as a project of one, very distinctive, generation.

    I would like to see the 65+ broken down into 2 bands if it can be done with statistical accuracy. Anecdotally it certainly feels if there is a big variation in this group, although the trend in that table would imply I'm not correct.
    There have been finer-grained polls, certainly to interpret 2016. From memory, peak Brexit was the immediate post war Boomer cohort- people with direct experience of WW2 were a bit more remainy.
    Not many voters left with real memories of WW2. Even my 87 year old dad only really remembers watching Liverpool burn, plotting battle reports on his maps and scrounging chewing gum off the Yanks as a schoolboy.

    While certainly there is a Boomer-Brexiteer cohort, that is too simplistic an analysis. Even in the most convinced parts of Leaverstan around a third of people voted Remain, and vice versa in Remania. This was a split in all generations and social classes, ages and backgrounds, one reason why such an uncivil civil war is so hard to heal.
    And remember under 35 non graduates voted Leave while over 65 graduates voted Remain.

    The divide was even more class based than age based because of immigration
    70% over 55 with a degree voted Remain, just 37% of 18 to 34s with GCSEs or less voted Remain

    https://anthonybmasters.medium.com/age-education-and-the-eu-referendum-ca7525be173d
    Thanks for that. It probably explains why my personal experience (as described in my post) re over 65s is inconsistent with the stats on age. Appreciated.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728

    You will never make wazzock Brexit absolutists happy. Its always betrayal, always has been since we joined, and still is now that we "Sadly we have a Government that hasn't implemented Brexit". And will continue to be betrayal whatever happens. We're already seeing the return of FUKUK as a political threat to the Tories and that will only grow. They can't be bought off like last time as what they want is impossible to deliver. So watch as FUK candidates destroy the Tory majorities in seats across the country.

    It will be interesting (and painful) to observe the parallels between the Tories and the headbangers and the Republicans and MAGA

    Both tried appeasement

    Both are now infiltrated and infected

    How either of them eventually expels the poison will be instructive

    I would quite like the Conservative and Unionist Party to tell the Brexiteers to fuck off and try their luck with the electorate, but I don't see it happening. Yet.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670

    Jonathan said:

    Brexit is an institution. An institution that is yet to deliver any benefits whatsoever. There is nothing on the horizon. Whether you were Leave or Remain the sensible thing to do is to ask what was the point.

    In an era where growth is the priority, Brexit is an institution holding us back.

    This simply isn't the case. Brexit has ended our domestic politics being dominated by federalist initiatives of the European Commission and the European Council, and questionable rulings of the European Court of Justice. It has ended any further moves to Ever Closer Union. And, it has given us more flexibility in foreign policy, as we are no longer bound by the CFSP, which meant we could act faster on things Ukraine and, also, weren't under political pressure to join the EU vaccine programme (heavily criticised on here at the time) which allowed us to do our own thing.

    Yes, it also raises non-tarrif barriers in trading with the continent and the price of that agility, dynamism and independence is we have to accept those costs and take the risk of leading by example from the outside, rather than slowly influencing behind closed doors - not always successfully - within the European institutions.

    Both positions are perfectly reasonable ones to take. The EU also suffers from high inflation, sclerotic growth and higher unemployment- even within the eurozone - and it's own web of political problems.

    Readmission would reduce the UK-EU trading barriers, at the price of all the political costs listed above, and that's about it. It would solve none of our short, medium and long-term problems and once we were back in we'd be having exactly the same frustrated debates as before.

    It is not a solution to anything. The reason emotions are so high about it is because Values - the Rejoin movement are hoping to exploit present frustrations over the economic situation to further their internationalist political objectives, and possibly then some, and it's as plain as day to anyone who's looking properly.

    It has been an unmitigated disaster
  • Jonathan said:

    Brexit is an institution. An institution that is yet to deliver any benefits whatsoever. There is nothing on the horizon. Whether you were Leave or Remain the sensible thing to do is to ask what was the point.

    In an era where growth is the priority, Brexit is an institution holding us back.

    This simply isn't the case. Brexit has ended our domestic politics being dominated by federalist initiatives of the European Commission and the European Council, and questionable rulings of the European Court of Justice. It has ended any further moves to Ever Closer Union. And, it has given us more flexibility in foreign policy, as we are no longer bound by the CFSP, which meant we could act faster on things Ukraine and, also, weren't under political pressure to join the EU vaccine programme (heavily criticised on here at the time) which allowed us to do our own thing.

    Yes, it also raises non-tarrif barriers in trading with the continent and the price of that agility, dynamism and independence is we have to accept those costs and take the risk of leading by example from the outside, rather than slowly influencing behind closed doors - not always successfully - within the European institutions.

    Both positions are perfectly reasonable ones to take. The EU also suffers from high inflation, sclerotic growth and higher unemployment- even within the eurozone - and it's own web of political problems.

    Readmission would reduce the UK-EU trading barriers, at the price of all the political costs listed above, and that's about it. It would solve none of our short, medium and long-term problems and once we were back in we'd be having exactly the same frustrated debates as before.

    It is not a solution to anything. The reason emotions are so high about it is because Values - the Rejoin movement are hoping to exploit present frustrations over the economic situation to further their internationalist political objectives, and possibly then some, and it's as plain as day to anyone who's looking properly.

    The Leave campaign made a lot of promises that turned out not to be true. The government insisted on the hardest possible Brexit deal short of no deal at all. The issue is not Brexit itself, but the way it’s been done. Because of that, there is an opportunity to rethink it and make it much less onerous. That’s the way to some palpable positives appearing. If this route is not chosen, though - if the experienced costs continue to significantly outweigh the perceived benefits - the pressure to Rejoin is only going to increase.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    eek said:

    felix said:

    Jonathan said:

    Taz said:

    Rejoin. Why would the EU accept us back ?

    Self interest.
    I think that is right but why would the British people vote on order to once again be an immediate net contributor, accept FOM and a new currency all in the hope of future and unproven economic benefits. I'd vote yes bit i voted remain. I don't see the British doing it. Voters tend to be short term in their thinking and then repent at leisure.
    I think the issue at the moment is “things are a bit shit” (for multiple reasons, including, but not remotely limited to, BREXIT) and it’s easy and simple to “blame Brexit” especially among Remain supporters. If or when conditions in the U.K. improve, then attitudes may change. I don’t think “economics” drove the vote to leave and while it may be behind current disenchantment with Brexit I’m not sure it will be as strong a persuader to rejoin as some of its supporters hope.
    I do think economics drove (some of) the vote to leave. Remember brexit referendum voting was high and that a lot of the leave voters don’t usually vote.

    And I will refer back to my anecdote from Leyland on the day of the vote. Phone call from the presiding officer o her break saying that a lot of people were asking how to vote and the story of how everyone hoped for jobs at the new Aldi only for it to be opened and full of Eastern European workers.

    And remember that the one area of the few areas Bozo focussed on was increasing the minimum wage.
    I've definitely noticed an increase in the number of British workers at hospitality (pubs, restaurants etc) in rural Hampshire since the vote.

    Like anything in life, the traffic isn't one way.
  • Jonathan said:

    Brexit is an institution. An institution that is yet to deliver any benefits whatsoever. There is nothing on the horizon. Whether you were Leave or Remain the sensible thing to do is to ask what was the point.

    In an era where growth is the priority, Brexit is an institution holding us back.

    This simply isn't the case. Brexit has ended our domestic politics being dominated by federalist initiatives of the European Commission and the European Council, and questionable rulings of the European Court of Justice. It has ended any further moves to Ever Closer Union. And, it has given us more flexibility in foreign policy, as we are no longer bound by the CFSP, which meant we could act faster on things Ukraine and, also, weren't under political pressure to join the EU vaccine programme (heavily criticised on here at the time) which allowed us to do our own thing.

    Yes, it also raises non-tarrif barriers in trading with the continent and the price of that agility, dynamism and independence is we have to accept those costs and take the risk of leading by example from the outside, rather than slowly influencing behind closed doors - not always successfully - within the European institutions.

    Both positions are perfectly reasonable ones to take. The EU also suffers from high inflation, sclerotic growth and higher unemployment- even within the eurozone - and it's own web of political problems.

    Readmission would reduce the UK-EU trading barriers, at the price of all the political costs listed above, and that's about it. It would solve none of our short, medium and long-term problems and once we were back in we'd be having exactly the same frustrated debates as before.

    It is not a solution to anything. The reason emotions are so high about it is because Values - the Rejoin movement are hoping to exploit present frustrations over the economic situation to further their internationalist political objectives, and possibly then some, and it's as plain as day to anyone who's looking properly.

    The only positive about the post-Brexit settlement is that we have the opportunity to copy the great Doctor Zimsky, put down the dictaphone and ask "what the fuck am I doing?" What we had wasn't delivering - a nation in decades-long decline. What we have now is accelerating our decline - people try and make all kinds of excuses but the number is the number - we are getting uniquely poorer relative to our competitors.

    So do we have the brains and the balls to ask the big questions? Why does everything cost so much when the provision is so poor? Why have most people's wages and conditions and living standards continued to slide? Why is education and health as patchy as they are? Why is our infrastructure - transport, power, fibre-optics etc - visibly worse than in the places we visit on holiday?

    Being in the EU isn't responsible for that. being outside isn't the fix for that. But having done the big thing I hope that we can continue the conversation. People rightly identified the problem, but wrongly identified the cause...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    . And, it has given us more flexibility in foreign policy, as we are no longer bound by the CFSP, which meant we could act faster on things Ukraine

    Poland and the Baltic states did more for Ukraine, more quickly while being in the EU.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670

    Scott_xP said:

    Rishi Sunak won’t answer whether or not he’s registered with a private GP.

    “Healthcare is something that is somewhat private” to him, he says. “It’s a distraction from what the real issue is”.

    #BBCLauraK

    Why should he endure the chaos us taxpayers experience? As a former non-dom husband why shouldn't he go private? Buy cheap, buy twice.
    There is as much chance of him not going private as I have of being the next pope.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    CD13 said:

    We won't rejoin.

    Two main reasons. The first is the union remains a fight for supremacy between France and Germany. The second, and most important, is that we will be forced to rejoin on worse terms than we left - because of reason one.

    I suspect the EU have learnt nothing and forgotten nothing, just as their most voluble advocates here.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728

    The Leave campaign made a lot of promises that turned out not to be true. ... The issue is not Brexit itself, but the way it’s been done.

    There is some tension between those statements.

    Brexiteers still insist there is a "better" Brexit if only we would grasp it.

    But they lied to get us to this point. They are not likely to be correct this time either.

    Put another way, while it may be true there are different degrees of how bad Brexit can be, it remains the case that all version of Brexit are worse than staying in.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670
    Dura_Ace said:

    . And, it has given us more flexibility in foreign policy, as we are no longer bound by the CFSP, which meant we could act faster on things Ukraine

    Poland and the Baltic states did more for Ukraine, more quickly while being in the EU.
    Yes significantly more than UK , Boris grandstanding to pretend he was Churchill II really helped him only a lot.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    Taz said:

    Rejoin. Why would the EU accept us back ?

    I think the EU will quite rightly want to see it as “the settled will” of the British people that they want to rejoin - as full fat members, not “half in, half out” as before, before entertaining discussions. A 52:48 referendum result wouldn’t swing it.
    True, though 52:48 rejoin is what you get if pollees are given "Stay out" talking points and nothing else. And, more significantly, the numbers are moving- it seems only one way.

    There's clearly a point where rejoin becomes popular enough that a) it's worth a major party embracing it and b) it needs serious institutional consideration. It's also clear that that point hasn't been reached yet. I wonder where it is? 70:30?
    It's always a mistake to think trends can only ever move inexorably in one direction.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    edited January 2023
    Jonathan said:

    Brexit is an institution. An institution that is yet to deliver any benefits whatsoever. There is nothing on the horizon. Whether you were Leave or Remain the sensible thing to do is to ask what was the point.

    In an era where growth is the priority, Brexit is an institution holding us back.

    Is this really an era where the priority is growth? What about issues like climate change or national security?

    Brexit isn't an institution; it's the state of being outside one particular institution among many.
This discussion has been closed.