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Brexit: The great turd blossom? – politicalbetting.com
Brexit: The great turd blossom? – politicalbetting.com
Around 1 in 6 Leave voters now say the UK was wrong to vote to leave the EU. Why have they changed their minds?"Things have got worse": 25%Economy/rising costs: 19%"We were lied to"/hasn't turned out as expected: 11%Impact on trade/business: 10%https://t.co/TEnGDa8I5h pic.twitter.com/tELqKiIViZ
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It's hilarious that even now Remainers think they can turn 38% starting support for their position into a majority. A big part of it is the way they stereotype their opponents and misunderstand their positions. For example on the Euro, actually skeptics aren't imperial nostalgics who get warm and fuzzy to see the monarch's head on their coins. They actually don't want a basket case of a currency union with unemployment almost double ours.
The Euro is unlikely to be on the cards even if we rejoined but if it was Stay Out would probably have a poll lead
I mentioned a few months back that I thought it was inevitable we will rejoin eventually. That may come sooner rather than later.
Brexit has been an unmitigated disaster.
Starmer wins an outright Labour majority, governs competently, the country slowly begins to recover, and at some point towards the end of the first term he begins making noises about the EU.
That then goes on the manifesto for a Labour 2nd term: that he will offer it back to the country in a referendum.
What a f-ing cock up Brexit is.
There is a case for the Euro, but 'the cashless society' is not it.
Actually you may be right. Referenda are nearly always bad.
Rejoining with no referendum, especially if winning party gets under 50% of the vote, is a fantastic way to give an immediate leave (again) campaign moral justification given we left after a referendum.
If pro-EU types actually want us to stay in then getting the authority of a referendum is helpful. The alternative, scummy, way of making it impossible to leave by integrating us as much as possible as rapidly would just piss people off even more.
Like pretty much every other poll, Brexit comes out largely as a project of one, very distinctive, generation.
If it is to find out what the public thinks on a 50:50ish issue, they are pretty toxic. The stakes are high, campaigners are tempted to do foolish things (yes I am looking at you, Cummings) to squeeze out a win, the losing side won't have lost by much.
If it's to confirm something that's kind of been decided unconsciously, the dynamics are different. Practically, they don't have much use, except maybe to allow opponents to quietly fold away their tents after a 2:1 defeat.
And in the case of Brexit, those numbers are still a fair way off.
https://on.ft.com/3CtKwO0 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1611996240987693056/photo/1
In an era where growth is the priority, Brexit is an institution holding us back.
The Scottish government is on a collision course with the courts again as it prepares legislation criminalising conversion therapy, according to a KC.
Double silk Aidan O’Neill KC has warned that the proposals would be outside the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament.
The SNP-Green alliance is considering plans to outlaw any activity – including parental chats, prayer and preaching – deemed to be an attempt to change a person’s sexuality or gender identity.….
“LGBT people are rightly protected from physical and verbal abuse by existing law just like anyone else. But these proposals go much, much further. The Scottish government is considering a law that could criminalise churches and gender-critical feminists alike simply because their conversations around sex and gender don’t conform to a narrow, state-approved brand of LGBT politics.
“The report advocates a new criminal offence that does not require any proof or intention of harm. It will be illegal to say the ‘wrong thing’ even if it is totally harmless. Aidan O’Neill refers to this as a ‘strict liability’ offence where there is no need for any criminal intent in order to be found guilty.”
https://www.scottishlegal.com/articles/kc-finds-scottish-governments-conversion-therapy-proposals-draconian
I'm far from certain the decision will lie in Sunak's hands.
However, sadly for those responsible, I don't think it will lead to us rejoining - it's more likely to lead to their own position being called into question.
Labour are going to win. Whether that's outright or by coalition is possibly irrelevant to this. The tories WILL lose government.
So what do Reform do right now? And what do the Red Wall tories do? They could shut up and lose.
Or they could break anyway. What do they have to lose? If they can get a small handful of MPs into the Commons they may be able to stem the inevitable tide that will sweep up back into Europe.
If I were them I'd bring down Sunak's Government this year. Show they've got balls and that they intend to fight for their cause.
Tory right warns Rishi Sunak: this is the calm before our storm over small boats and Brexit
As the PM tries to move on from ‘perma-crisis’, agitated former ministers promise big trouble ahead
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/08/tory-right-warns-sunak-calm-before-storm-small-boats-brexit
So we're probably going to have to rejoin in a fuller form. Personally, as a committed European I'm okay with that, but I quite a few Brits won't be.
On the subject of currency, I think @TSE was rather unfairly pilloried below for his comment on this. The desire to retain sterling is not just economics. Like a lot the Brexit debate, it's visceral, emotional, nationalistic. In fact, almost NONE of the Brexit argument was about factual economics, as has now been laid bare. It was political, emotional, nationalistic. It was not economic.
If we're less and less clutching a little pound coin with ̶H̶M̶Q̶ HMK on it then the core connection is lost.
Records of all outside interests of MPs
Day 1 - earnings
https://news.sky.com/story/westminster-accounts-mps-earn-17-1m-on-top-of-their-salaries-since-the-last-election-with-tories-taking-15-4m-12758768
Who funds our politics and our politicians? We've made it easier for EVERYONE to follow.
First, the 17 million pounds in extra earnings made by in MPs in just 3 years.
https://news.sky.com/story/westminster-accounts-mps-earn-17-1m-on-top-of-their-salaries-since-the-last-election-with-tories-taking-15-4m-12758768
Sex and gender are so complex and these bear pit environments too readily simply turn into angry and hate-filled places where there's very little gentle engagement with all the nuances. I have in fact been on national television several times discussing the topic and I've written in the national press on it.
On forums with some topics, as with Jehovah Witnesses, it's better to walk away.
It's a female thing not to want to have a cock fight.
There's clearly a point where rejoin becomes popular enough that a) it's worth a major party embracing it and b) it needs serious institutional consideration. It's also clear that that point hasn't been reached yet. I wonder where it is? 70:30?
https://twitter.com/lorraine2locked/status/1611738438545424389?s=61&t=JtpxVtpp_-EcbOHO4DKMnw
Two main reasons. The first is the union remains a fight for supremacy between France and Germany. The second, and most important, is that we will be forced to rejoin on worse terms than we left - because of reason one.
@Luckyguy1983 makes the case that Brexit support is failing because it hasn't been tried hard enough, and the failure of the 5 year plan is down to wreckers and Kulaks. In reality Brexit is at that stage where it consumes its own. Sunak was one of the original Leavers but was pilloried all summer for being a closet Remainer. It is hard not to enjoy a little Schadenfreude.
There is no engagement. Just shouting down dissenters. That is this whole debate from the trans side.
https://twitter.com/agingwhitegay/status/1611854584703766528?s=61&t=JtpxVtpp_-EcbOHO4DKMnw
At that point there will be a national consensus to rejoin the SM at least and as we will want a seat at the top table, that means Rejoin.
No mainstream party will be arguing to stay out
There will be some debate about whether Brexit was always going to be this shit, or if it was betrayed by reamoners and never implemented properly, but only by obvious headbangers
I very much doubt it.
While certainly there is a Boomer-Brexiteer cohort, that is too simplistic an analysis. Even in the most convinced parts of Leaverstan around a third of people voted Remain, and vice versa in Remania. This was a split in all generations and social classes, ages and backgrounds, one reason why such an uncivil civil war is so hard to heal.
The UK is the only G20 Country (except Russia) where conditions are not improving
The only Country in history to impose sanctions on ourselves
And I will refer back to my anecdote from Leyland on the day of the vote. Phone call from the presiding officer o her break saying that a lot of people were asking how to vote and the story of how everyone hoped for jobs at the new Aldi only for it to be opened and full of Eastern European workers.
And remember that the one area of the few areas Bozo focussed on was increasing the minimum wage.
So instead of getting stressed about the forlorn hope of rejoining, those of us who would like to be in the EU should just sit back and enjoy the epic battle, largely on the right, between "Brexit has been betrayed!" and "Oh no it hasn't!". It will be depressingly entertaining.
“Healthcare is something that is somewhat private” to him, he says. “It’s a distraction from what the real issue is”.
#BBCLauraK
The divide was even more class based than age based because of immigration
It is of course possible to have a policy of applying to rejoin, but that's far from being the same thing.
https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1612015085278449664
What is a bad idea is having an uncertain option on the table, assuming it'll never win.
The UK is bad at doing these as Prime Ministers just assume their preferred option will win and therefore they won't have to deal with the fallout of the other option.
In the UK wide three referendum, we had:
1975 - Luckily 'In' won. An 'Out' win would've been a problem as whilst we had only been in the EU for two years, what would Out have looked like? Completely out? Return to EFTA? Something else?
2011 - Was actually a good referendum - Two clear options. FPTP or AV.
2016 - The less said the better as the EU had become much more by then. The 'Out' option ranged from EEA to 'Nuclear attack on France' and everything in between.
And saying "private" not "personal" looks like a big Freudian slip to me. Sometimes his inexperience as a politician really shows.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1423633648264351744
This is the reason why Brexit Betrayal is the legacy skip fire of British politics. I think some in the red wall have woken up to this - that the Tories are foaming at the mouth wanting to remove workers rights and worsen their conditions isn't the Brexit they voted for. Similarly having control over borders yet failing to build border infrastructure or staff one isn't what anyone voted for - but it is sovereign choice to elect an inept shitshow of a government, is it not?
https://anthonybmasters.medium.com/age-education-and-the-eu-referendum-ca7525be173d
Yes, it also raises non-tarrif barriers in trading with the continent and the price of that agility, dynamism and independence is we have to accept those costs and take the risk of leading by example from the outside, rather than slowly influencing behind closed doors - not always successfully - within the European institutions.
Both positions are perfectly reasonable ones to take. The EU also suffers from high inflation, sclerotic growth and higher unemployment- even within the eurozone - and it's own web of political problems.
Readmission would reduce the UK-EU trading barriers, at the price of all the political costs listed above, and that's about it. It would solve none of our short, medium and long-term problems and once we were back in we'd be having exactly the same frustrated debates as before.
It is not a solution to anything. The reason emotions are so high about it is because Values - the Rejoin movement are hoping to exploit present frustrations over the economic situation to further their internationalist political objectives, and possibly then some, and it's as plain as day to anyone who's looking properly.
I cannot see how there will be any consensus about a move to rejoin the EU so it puzzles me that it keeps being raised. We left, it will remain a political football until the giffers die off so we're not going back until a big majority across politics wants it. Not that the "EU" will stand still - who knows what it will be in the 2040s when we're asking to join?
What we can do is accept the reality of where we find ourselves and take action to fix it. The 2023 round of the Tory Civil War will be instructive. The mouth foamers plan insurrection to smash through the removal of "EU regulations" stopping them exploiting red wall peons for bigger profits. As the antithesis of what the WWC thought Brexit was to deliver, this will not only hurt the Tory poll ratings but also shift the wider thinking about where we are and where we are going.
You will never make wazzock Brexit absolutists happy. Its always betrayal, always has been since we joined, and still is now that we "Sadly we have a Government that hasn't implemented Brexit". And will continue to be betrayal whatever happens. We're already seeing the return of FUKUK as a political threat to the Tories and that will only grow. They can't be bought off like last time as what they want is impossible to deliver. So watch as FUK candidates destroy the Tory majorities in seats across the country.
That isn't to then deliver a cakewalk for Labour. People are ANGRY and things have got worse. Delivery needs to be sizeable and rapid and frankly isn't going to happen because we lack imagination in our polity.
Both tried appeasement
Both are now infiltrated and infected
How either of them eventually expels the poison will be instructive
I would quite like the Conservative and Unionist Party to tell the Brexiteers to fuck off and try their luck with the electorate, but I don't see it happening. Yet.
Had this not happened, had I and his father not been able to get this therapy and the rest of the care that was needed we would have had a dead child on our hands.
The Labour Party has also proposed something similar. It is very hard indeed to separate out the sort of conversion practices which seek to stop a gay person from being gay (unkind, useless and harmful) and the kind of watchful talking and long-term therapy needed by people with mental health conditions, which need careful understanding and probing and help not some sort of superficial affirmation by those seeking to prove a point. The latter (ie the therapy) is essential. A life-saver, literally. This kind of therapy is long, hard (a matter of years not months) and not at all easy to come by, whether on the NHS or privately. The waiting list before Covid to get into the specialist clinic dealing with it was at least 2 years and Covid has made that worse. Therapists are not going to do this sort of work if there is the remotest chance that they might face criminal liability because of uninformed legislation and, I'm sorry to say, idiots like you refusing to engage intelligently with difficult and sensitive issues.
Back to lurking.
Like anything in life, the traffic isn't one way.
So do we have the brains and the balls to ask the big questions? Why does everything cost so much when the provision is so poor? Why have most people's wages and conditions and living standards continued to slide? Why is education and health as patchy as they are? Why is our infrastructure - transport, power, fibre-optics etc - visibly worse than in the places we visit on holiday?
Being in the EU isn't responsible for that. being outside isn't the fix for that. But having done the big thing I hope that we can continue the conversation. People rightly identified the problem, but wrongly identified the cause...
Brexiteers still insist there is a "better" Brexit if only we would grasp it.
But they lied to get us to this point. They are not likely to be correct this time either.
Put another way, while it may be true there are different degrees of how bad Brexit can be, it remains the case that all version of Brexit are worse than staying in.
Brexit isn't an institution; it's the state of being outside one particular institution among many.