Could there be an election this year? – politicalbetting.com

Stuartinromford said:

I guess the nearest precedent for a flailing PM calling a crisis election to try to assert their authority would be Heath in '74, and we all know how that ended.

Question for those who know of those times- did the Grocer think the snap election would play to his advantage? And what was Atlee thinking of in 1951?

Stuartinromford said:

On Topic- if the govenment gets a window of popularity large enough to fit a General Election in, it will be very tempting to take it.

Is there a 12 percent chance of this?

HYUFD said:

Heathener said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see mass demonstrations, anarchy, and a general strike this year.

When Sunak has his Ceaușescu moment, then we'll have a General Election.

I've never known such visceral anger.

I think suggesting Rishi and his wife will be shot by the mob like the Ceaucescus is a little excessive and the left at its worst. We Tories had to wait 3 years to get rid of Brown as PM.

Unlike Romania then we are a democracy and voters will get their say on his government in due course

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Heathener said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see mass demonstrations, anarchy, and a general strike this year.

When Sunak has his Ceaușescu moment, then we'll have a General Election.

I've never known such visceral anger.

I think suggesting Rishi and his wife will be shot by the mob like the Ceaucescus is a little excessive and the left at its worst. We Tories had to wait 3 years to get rid of Brown as PM.

Unlike Romania then we are a democracy and voters will get their say on his government in due course

Sunak has been bad, and a predictable misstep. He offers no hope to the country, or the party. They have a slim chance of redemption if they boot him before the election. It doesn't matter who they replace him with - it could be the char lady.

Jonathan said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Heathener said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see mass demonstrations, anarchy, and a general strike this year.

When Sunak has his Ceaușescu moment, then we'll have a General Election.

I've never known such visceral anger.

I think suggesting Rishi and his wife will be shot by the mob like the Ceaucescus is a little excessive and the left at its worst. We Tories had to wait 3 years to get rid of Brown as PM.

Unlike Romania then we are a democracy and voters will get their say on his government in due course

Sunak has been bad, and a predictable misstep. He offers no hope to the country, or the party. They have a slim chance of redemption if they boot him before the election. It doesn't matter who they replace him with - it could be the char lady.

Liz Truss comeback?

Jonathan said:

Liz Truss comeback?

dixiedean said:

How is that offside?
LiVARpool again tonight.

Andy_JS said:

FPT

"In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

Scott_xP said:

Jonathan said:

Liz Truss comeback?

9/Liz Truss https://twitter.com/2015Jmr/status/1611755478651904001/photo/1

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Heathener said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see mass demonstrations, anarchy, and a general strike this year.

When Sunak has his Ceaușescu moment, then we'll have a General Election.

I've never known such visceral anger.

I think suggesting Rishi and his wife will be shot by the mob like the Ceaucescus is a little excessive and the left at its worst. We Tories had to wait 3 years to get rid of Brown as PM.

Unlike Romania then we are a democracy and voters will get their say on his government in due course

Sunak has been bad, and a predictable misstep. He offers no hope to the country, or the party. They have a slim chance of redemption if they boot him before the election. It doesn't matter who they replace him with - it could be the char lady.

Liz Truss comeback?

No way, the last Yougov under Truss had the Tories on 19% and Labour on 56% and virtually every Tory MP losing their seat.

At least Sunak has cut the Labour lead, even if it is still bigger than when Boris resigned

Time has cut the Labour lead. And it has cut it very modestly. Stupid Tory MPs and Conservative supporters have brought in a 0% effective Government in exchange for a couple of measly points on the polls that will make little to no difference to the outcome.

Scott_xP said:

Jonathan said:

Liz Truss comeback?

9/Liz Truss https://twitter.com/2015Jmr/status/1611755478651904001/photo/1

Luckyguy1983 said:

Scott_xP said:

Jonathan said:

Liz Truss comeback?

9/Liz Truss https://twitter.com/2015Jmr/status/1611755478651904001/photo/1

Its portraiture is always this little bit off in a strange way. I think it's the features that remain of some of the other faces they've used.

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

FPT

"In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

lol, no

I did actually investigate the details

He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)

A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night

2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up

And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

I guess the nearest precedent for a flailing PM calling a crisis election to try to assert their authority would be Heath in '74, and we all know how that ended.

Question for those who know of those times- did the Grocer think the snap election would play to his advantage? And what was Atlee thinking of in 1951?

Or May in 2017.

The only snap elections which came off were Wilson's in 1966 and October 1974 and only because he had won the narrowest of majorities before

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

HYUFD said:

Heathener said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see mass demonstrations, anarchy, and a general strike this year.

When Sunak has his Ceaușescu moment, then we'll have a General Election.

I've never known such visceral anger.

I think suggesting Rishi and his wife will be shot by the mob like the Ceaucescus is a little excessive and the left at its worst. We Tories had to wait 3 years to get rid of Brown as PM.

Unlike Romania then we are a democracy and voters will get their say on his government in due course

Sunak has been bad, and a predictable misstep. He offers no hope to the country, or the party. They have a slim chance of redemption if they boot him before the election. It doesn't matter who they replace him with - it could be the char lady.

Liz Truss comeback?

No way, the last Yougov under Truss had the Tories on 19% and Labour on 56% and virtually every Tory MP losing their seat.

At least Sunak has cut the Labour lead, even if it is still bigger than when Boris resigned

Time has cut the Labour lead. And it has cut it very modestly. Stupid Tory MPs and Conservative supporters have brought in a 0% effective Government in exchange for a couple of measly points on the polls that will make little to no difference to the outcome.

The latest Yougov gives the Tories over 100 seats, the last Yougov under Truss gave the Tories about 0 seats

beinndearg said:

Scott_xP said:

Jonathan said:

Liz Truss comeback?

9/Liz Truss https://twitter.com/2015Jmr/status/1611755478651904001/photo/1

That flatters her.

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

FPT

"In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

lol, no

I did actually investigate the details

He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)

A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night

2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up

And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich

I'd be astonished if that were true.

Swiss median income is certainly higher than ours, but it's not that high.

He was probably just trying to anchor you on his prices.

RobD said:

Heathener said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see mass demonstrations, anarchy, and a general strike this year.

When Sunak has his Ceaușescu moment, then we'll have a General Election.

I've never known such visceral anger.

Heathener said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see mass demonstrations, anarchy, and a general strike this year.

When Sunak has his Ceaușescu moment, then we'll have a General Election.

I've never known such visceral anger.

You think he’s going to face a drumhead trial and then be summarily executed?

Step away from the keyboard.

Andy_JS said:

Interesting portraits:

https://twitter.com/Wilson_2003x/status/1611685858008088576

Leon said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

FPT

"In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

lol, no

I did actually investigate the details

He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)

A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night

2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up

And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich

I'd be astonished if that were true.

Swiss median income is certainly higher than ours, but it's not that high.

He was probably just trying to anchor you on his prices.

It's really not mad

This is not Swiss working class people (but how many of them are there?!). This is the Swiss middle classes

Let's take an average solicitor. They earn - Google tells me - 160,000 Swiss Francs a year. That's about £150,000

So an average lawyer is on a City banker's salary. That's how they can afford £15k holidays

Or, take a Swiss primary school teacher. They earn £70,000 a year. Much more in Zurich

https://www.thelocal.ch/20200826/what-do-teachers-earn-in-switzerland-and-where-do-they-earn-the-most

So a kindy teacher in Zurich earns what an MP earns in London

Scott_xP said:

Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

FPT

"In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

lol, no

I did actually investigate the details

He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)

A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night

2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up

And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich

I'd be astonished if that were true.

Swiss median income is certainly higher than ours, but it's not that high.

He was probably just trying to anchor you on his prices.

It's really not mad

This is not Swiss working class people (but how many of them are there?!). This is the Swiss middle classes

Let's take an average solicitor. They earn - Google tells me - 160,000 Swiss Francs a year. That's about £150,000

So an average lawyer is on a City banker's salary. That's how they can afford £15k holidays

Or, take a Swiss primary school teacher. They earn £70,000 a year. Much more in Zurich

https://www.thelocal.ch/20200826/what-do-teachers-earn-in-switzerland-and-where-do-they-earn-the-most

So a kindy teacher in Zurich earns what an MP earns in London

I can believe it but at the prices you quoted that would be 10% of their entire annual income, and that's before tax.

The equivalent here would be a solicitor (say on 50k) spending 5k on an annual family holiday.

Sure, some will do it. But most won't.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Scott_xP said:

Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.

Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss

Razedabode said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Scott_xP said:

Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.

Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss

If I were Sunak, I’d just say fine, let’s call a GE then. Good luck to the Johnson lovers and ERG mob

Cookie said:

beinndearg said:

Scott_xP said:

Jonathan said:

Liz Truss comeback?

9/Liz Truss https://twitter.com/2015Jmr/status/1611755478651904001/photo/1

That flatters her.

It's seldom commented on, because people often can't bear to concede any merits at all to politicians they dislike, but Truss has been by some way the best looking PM of my lifetime. She was quite pleasant looking.

Nigelb said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

FPT

"In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

lol, no

I did actually investigate the details

He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)

A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night

2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up

And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich

Interestingly, 120 years ago the Swiss were grindingly poor. Amazing what staying out of two world wars will do for your finances.
Along with 100 years of pretty good decision-making, of course.

Imagine what the whole of Europe might have been like, had it avoided the two world wars.

Scott_xP said:

Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

Razedabode said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Scott_xP said:

Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.

Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss

If I were Sunak, I’d just say fine, let’s call a GE then. Good luck to the Johnson lovers and ERG mob

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Cookie said:

beinndearg said:

Scott_xP said:

Jonathan said:

Liz Truss comeback?

9/Liz Truss https://twitter.com/2015Jmr/status/1611755478651904001/photo/1

That flatters her.

It's seldom commented on, because people often can't bear to concede any merits at all to politicians they dislike, but Truss has been by some way the best looking PM of my lifetime. She was quite pleasant looking.

"Should've gone to Specsavers!"

Nigelb said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

FPT

"In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

lol, no

I did actually investigate the details

He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)

A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night

2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up

And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich

Interestingly, 120 years ago the Swiss were grindingly poor. Amazing what staying out of two world wars will do for your finances.
Along with 100 years of pretty good decision-making, of course.

Imagine what the whole of Europe might have been like, had it avoided the two world wars.

Theuniondivvie said:

Nigelb said:

Cookie said:

Leon said:

Andy_JS said:

FPT

"In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

lol, no

I did actually investigate the details

He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)

A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night

2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up

And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich

Interestingly, 120 years ago the Swiss were grindingly poor. Amazing what staying out of two world wars will do for your finances.
Along with 100 years of pretty good decision-making, of course.

Imagine what the whole of Europe might have been like, had it avoided the two world wars.

Quite a bit behind on technology and medicine, which may or may not have been a price worth paying. All that youthful talent allowed to live fruitful lives, not least several million Jews, to make up for it of course.

Jonathan said:

If Boris engineers a coup ( again) and becomes leader again, does anyone remotely believe that this in any way settles the matter.

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Scott_xP said:

Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.

Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss

He hasn't mitigated anything. He has actively damaged the oil and gas industry that is so crucial to protect out energy security and prevent the impoverishment of bill payers. He has damaged economic growth, turning sharply into a recession, and that will now make his stated aim of 'balancing the books' harder, because of lower tax receipts. He has raised taxation to levels unimagined by Jeremy Corbyn. He has shown zero attempt to reverse or even mildly critique our disastrous public sector productivity. He has utterly mismanaged the pay dispute with the NHS. He has been supine in the face of civil servants, central bankers, the EU, the Green lobby, and frankly any other pisstaker with a fancy title. This is an absent Government.

Sadly you seem to be in denial as to the damage Johnson and Truss caused and Sunak with Hunt are beginning to repair that damage even evidenced by lower mortgage offers last week than before Truss

As for windfall taxes they are being applied across the EU and in the UK and are very much supported by the population

ERG, Johnson and Farage supporters are yesterday's news as the country sidelines them along with Corbynites

The political future of this country is in a one nation approach and is likely to see Starmer lead it in 2 years time and certainly bringing back Johnson is an extinction event for the conservative party and he would lose his seat anyway

I’m not sure the technocratic managerialism of Sunak and Hunt is doing the country or the Conservative Party much good.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Scott_xP said:

Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.

Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss

He hasn't mitigated anything. He has actively damaged the oil and gas industry that is so crucial to protect out energy security and prevent the impoverishment of bill payers. He has damaged economic growth, turning sharply into a recession, and that will now make his stated aim of 'balancing the books' harder, because of lower tax receipts. He has raised taxation to levels unimagined by Jeremy Corbyn. He has shown zero attempt to reverse or even mildly critique our disastrous public sector productivity. He has utterly mismanaged the pay dispute with the NHS. He has been supine in the face of civil servants, central bankers, the EU, the Green lobby, and frankly any other pisstaker with a fancy title. This is an absent Government.

Sadly you seem to be in denial as to the damage Johnson and Truss caused and Sunak with Hunt are beginning to repair that damage even evidenced by lower mortgage offers last week than before Truss

As for windfall taxes they are being applied across the EU and in the UK and are very much supported by the population

ERG, Johnson and Farage supporters are yesterday's news as the country sidelines them along with Corbynites

The political future of this country is in a one nation approach and is likely to see Starmer lead it in 2 years time and certainly bringing back Johnson is an extinction event for the conservative party and he would lose his seat anyway

Sadly, and somewhat understandably, it is you who appears to be in deep denial - that a crappy PM with a miserable anti-growth agenda that you foolishly and shortsightedly urged on the party for political expediency, has utterly failed even on that paltry measure, let alone in successfully running a country. A few measly points in the polls that probably would have happened anyway, and you now acknowledge that Labour will win the next election, so what on earth was the point?