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Could there be an election this year? – politicalbetting.com
Could there be an election this year? – politicalbetting.com
As can be seen from the general election timing betting market punters are pretty much confident that there will be no contest this year.
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So proud
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/doctor-who-helped-launch-beloved-28899903
Would need to be much more than that.
He will also want to maximise gas time in No 10 given on an election tomorrow Starmer would replace him as PM
But, and it's an important caveat, the reasons why I think there may be a 2023 election are totally different from Mike's. I think events could rapidly go completely out of the Conservatives' hands. The clamour for an election will be impossible to resist.
Events dear boy, events.
Let's see.
I got an AI to simulate how British political figures would look like if they were villains
1/Rishi Sunak https://twitter.com/2015Jmr/status/1611749426078355456/photo/1
Question for those who know of those times- did the Grocer think the snap election would play to his advantage? And what was Atlee thinking of in 1951?
The only snap elections which came off were Wilson's in 1966 and October 1974 and only because he had won the narrowest of majorities before
When Sunak has his Ceaușescu moment, then we'll have a General Election.
I've never known such visceral anger.
Is there a 12 percent chance of this?
Step away from the keyboard.
Unlike Romania then we are a democracy and voters will get their say on his government in due course
https://twitter.com/Wilson_2003x/status/1611685858008088576
Just a thought.
LiVARpool again tonight.
Nothing Drives Down Prices More Like A Good Old-Fashioned Gang War.
"In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"
Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.
I did actually investigate the details
He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)
A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night
2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up
And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich
At least Sunak has cut the Labour lead, even if it is still bigger than when Boris resigned
Yet it is still this good
AI unleashed is gonna terrify the fuck out of people, and seriously roil our perception of reality. Coming soon
Along with 100 years of pretty good decision-making, of course.
Swiss median income is certainly higher than ours, but it's not that high.
He was probably just trying to anchor you on his prices.
The same hotel manager told me of a rough mountain bar - a "grotto" in the localese - quite near the Eden Roc. The bar is called "the Americano". Why? Because in the late 19th early 20th century, this is where would-be Swiss emigrants would meet, for the last time, in their impoverished country, before heading away to America, never to return
The idea that a Swiss person would emigrate, now, to the troubled USA is ridiculous
That's how far Switzerland has come from dire poverty. Good governance, strict armed neutrality, low taxes, sensible referendums, trust the people: it has all worked, over 100 years
This is also the reason for the Swiss Guards at the Vatican. Swiss men were mercenaries for centuries because there was no choice and their families were all starving, and adorned with goitres
https://twitter.com/Wilson_2003x/status/1611740780367958017
Images of Sunak, Starmer, Johnson, May, Cameron and Osborne are also on that feed.
She forgot the first rule of manifestos is to win elections.
This is not Swiss working class people (but how many of them are there?!). This is the Swiss middle classes
Let's take an average solicitor. They earn - Google tells me - 160,000 Swiss Francs a year. That's about £150,000
So an average lawyer is on a City banker's salary. That's how they can afford £15k holidays
Or, take a Swiss primary school teacher. They earn £70,000 a year. Much more in Zurich
https://www.thelocal.ch/20200826/what-do-teachers-earn-in-switzerland-and-where-do-they-earn-the-most
So a kindy teacher in Zurich earns what an MP earns in London
Very very funny, go and see his tour if you get the chance. Absolutely nothing off limits, and crying with laughter for the first half an hour.
One PG joke you can tell your kids: “My pronouns are he, he, he, because I self-identify as a comedian!”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0
Starmer and Sunak.
The equivalent here would be a solicitor (say on 50k) spending 5k on an annual family holiday.
Sure, some will do it. But most won't.
"The average wage for kindergarten teachers in Switzerland is CHF73,963 (+CHF730 compared to 2019), while the maximum is CHF112,311 (+CHF1071 compared to 2019). "
I'll do the maths for you. In British this says:
The average wage for kindergarten teachers in Switzerland is £65,914, while the maximum is £100,089
Kindergarten teachers. On £100k
Including this classic interaction between Lucy and Charlie Brown?
https://peanuts.fandom.com/wiki/Football_gag?file=19651017Football.png
Personally I am amazed they don't go abroad - even to France, Spain or Italy, and get much better deals at much cheaper prices - but apparently the Swiss love Switzerland. The manager told me his hotel barely suffered from Covid because of this loyal local custom
And, really, if you are a solicitor in Lucerne on £150,000 a year, dropping £15k on a holiday is nothing dramatic. You still have £135,000 to play with. You will survive
source: https://www.eda.admin.ch/countries/usa/en/home/switzerland-and/bilateral-relations.html
There is much more data on Swiss/US relations at that site.
This was my favourite
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kn4Y3sHyfsg
Imagine what the whole of Europe might have been like, had it avoided the two world wars.
Interestingly, Kennedy was a strong student of the former, which probably helped.
Leaders matter.
They're hopeless, and have made most of the population feel hopeless through their long and dismal record of near-total failure. The best thing that could happen at this juncture is if the Parliamentary Conservative Party could be completely decimated at the next election and then spend a very, very long time indeed in Opposition. Sadly, I doubt that the nation will be that fortunate.
Whenever they tell you a change is impossible, show them Utrecht.
An urban freeway with many lanes can become a green park with a beautiful canal. Instead of a car sewer, the water flows.
https://twitter.com/LiorSteinberg/status/1611376172096438272
Sometime in 2023 I think we’ll go 100% non fossil fuel for electricity, probably in May or June on a sunny and windy weekend midday.
There was a great exhibition about Lucy at Downing College's tiny art gallery, quite recently.
https://nationalcareers.service.gov.uk/job-profiles/early-years-teacher
The same person in Switzerland makes £70-100k
Swiss people earn about 2.5-3 times what British people earn
Various cities in flat, cold and wet, traditionally industrial and generally non-glamorous parts of Northern Europe have managed to create a quality of life through urban planning and landscaping that we absolutely could but don’t emulate.
A few months ago I wandered through a very humdrum suburb of Amsterdam made up of 60s housing not unlike what we have in the UK, but the way it was laid out: the greenery, the paths and cycle ways, water surfaces, street furniture: it all was just so pleasant.
As for windfall taxes they are being applied across the EU and in the UK and are very much supported by the population
ERG, Johnson and Farage supporters are yesterday's news as the country sidelines them along with Corbynites
The political future of this country is in a one nation approach and is likely to see Starmer lead it in 2 years time and certainly bringing back Johnson is an extinction event for the conservative party and he would lose his seat anyway
But it’s hard to imagine a Europe where those
geopolitical tensions didn’t crystallise into war of revolution at some stage.
There are only four routes to a General Election at any time:
1. The five year term for Parliament expiring.
2. The Prime Minister calling for one (and the Monarch accepting the need)
3. The LotO calls and wins a VoNC in the House of Commons and its clear no alternative government can be formed.
4. Some sort of disaster resulting in such a significant number of vacancies in the House of Commons that the government/PM feels duty bound to call a General Election.
1. Will happen with the passage of time. 28th January 2025 [1]. But that doesn't get us a GE in 2023.
2. I really can't see this happening. Sunaks ratings are poor, his honeymoon appears over, the Conservatives are stuggling to get out of the high 20s in the polls and personally I can't see any obvious improvement between now and (say) October that would warranty an early attempt.
3. With a government majority of about 70 still, this isn't realistically happening.
4. This doesn't have to be a morbid event. You could get (say) 200 MPs all suddenly deciding that they wanted to run off to the circus. Depending on who these MPs are (let's say they were all Conservative), the change in the makeup of the HoC could result in Labour taking government whilst by-elections are pending and even once settled, there is a good chance that many of those might be lost anyway, hence the PM basically is forced to call a GE to head off the inevitable change in government WITHOUT a General Election.
I'll leave others to decide the likelihood of this event, but I suspect its pretty much nil.
Of the above, only (2) has a chance that isn't effectively zero, but 12% it isn't. More like 1%.
[1] I don't think Sunak will do it, but am I right in thinking that if he does go to the death, it'll be the longest gap between General Elections since 1945?
There are exceptions. The latest price I paid for a dozen large eggs was $3.39, (The most common price I saw in previous years was $1.99, with occasional specials at $0.99.) I expect the price will moderate as US producers recover from the avian flu. I wouldn't be surprised if the price settles at, for example, $2.49, by the end of this year.
(There is, currently, a very wide regional variation in egg prices in the US. I'm not sure why, but differential effects of the avian flu could explain much of it.)
At some point in the future there will be enough storage that they'll be able to use the storage for that role, but not this year.
Remind me of this if I'm proved wrong!