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Could there be an election this year? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,731
edited January 2023 in General
imageCould there be an election this year? – politicalbetting.com

As can be seen from the general election timing betting market punters are pretty much confident that there will be no contest this year.

Read the full story here

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    franklynfranklyn Posts: 297
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,071
    Something of a recovery?
    Would need to be much more than that.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,308
    edited January 2023
    There is near zero chance of an election this year. Sunak will want to have cut the deficit enough before he goes to the polls and have some room for tax cuts for middle earners which is not the case now.

    He will also want to maximise gas time in No 10 given on an election tomorrow Starmer would replace him as PM
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,252
    Anything is possible. But probably not 👍
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,431
    edited January 2023
    I agree with Mike that it's not such a foregone conclusion. I would currently put it 60:40 on 2024 to 2023 (it won't be 2025).

    But, and it's an important caveat, the reasons why I think there may be a 2023 election are totally different from Mike's. I think events could rapidly go completely out of the Conservatives' hands. The clamour for an election will be impossible to resist.

    Events dear boy, events.

    Let's see.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,303
    So while Leon has been spamming the site for weeks with AI and pictures, he hasn't posted this...

    I got an AI to simulate how British political figures would look like if they were villains

    1/Rishi Sunak https://twitter.com/2015Jmr/status/1611749426078355456/photo/1


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    I guess the nearest precedent for a flailing PM calling a crisis election to try to assert their authority would be Heath in '74, and we all know how that ended.

    Question for those who know of those times- did the Grocer think the snap election would play to his advantage? And what was Atlee thinking of in 1951?
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    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Scott_xP said:

    So while Leon has been spamming the site for weeks with AI and pictures, he hasn't posted this...

    I got an AI to simulate how British political figures would look like if they were villains

    1/Rishi Sunak https://twitter.com/2015Jmr/status/1611749426078355456/photo/1


    He's fallen for the old "exploding tie" gag.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,308
    edited January 2023

    I guess the nearest precedent for a flailing PM calling a crisis election to try to assert their authority would be Heath in '74, and we all know how that ended.

    Question for those who know of those times- did the Grocer think the snap election would play to his advantage? And what was Atlee thinking of in 1951?

    Or May in 2017.

    The only snap elections which came off were Wilson's in 1966 and October 1974 and only because he had won the narrowest of majorities before
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,431
    I wouldn't be surprised to see mass demonstrations, anarchy, and a general strike this year.

    When Sunak has his Ceaușescu moment, then we'll have a General Election.

    I've never known such visceral anger.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,071
    Allison trying to outdo De Gea this evening.
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    On Topic- if the govenment gets a window of popularity large enough to fit a General Election in, it will be very tempting to take it.

    Is there a 12 percent chance of this?
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    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623

    On Topic- if the govenment gets a window of popularity large enough to fit a General Election in, it will be very tempting to take it.

    Is there a 12 percent chance of this?

    If by popularity you mean "we can see a potential path to a clear defeat but at least lets us be credible opposition, versus a path to an absolute beating and electoral wipeout", perhaps.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,852
    Heathener said:

    I wouldn't be surprised to see mass demonstrations, anarchy, and a general strike this year.

    When Sunak has his Ceaușescu moment, then we'll have a General Election.

    I've never known such visceral anger.

    You might be more influential on this board if you didn't always turn it up to 11.

    Just a thought.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,690
    edited January 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    I wouldn't be surprised to see mass demonstrations, anarchy, and a general strike this year.

    When Sunak has his Ceaușescu moment, then we'll have a General Election.

    I've never known such visceral anger.

    I think suggesting Rishi and his wife will be shot by the mob like the Ceaucescus is a little excessive and the left at its worst. We Tories had to wait 3 years to get rid of Brown as PM.

    Unlike Romania then we are a democracy and voters will get their say on his government in due course
    Sunak has been bad, and a predictable misstep. He offers no hope to the country, or the party. They have a slim chance of redemption if they boot him before the election. It doesn't matter who they replace him with - it could be the char lady.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,071
    How is that offside?
    LiVARpool again tonight.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    I wouldn't be surprised to see mass demonstrations, anarchy, and a general strike this year.

    When Sunak has his Ceaușescu moment, then we'll have a General Election.

    I've never known such visceral anger.

    I think suggesting Rishi and his wife will be shot by the mob like the Ceaucescus is a little excessive and the left at its worst. We Tories had to wait 3 years to get rid of Brown as PM.

    Unlike Romania then we are a democracy and voters will get their say on his government in due course
    Sunak has been bad, and a predictable misstep. He offers no hope to the country, or the party. They have a slim chance of redemption if they boot him before the election. It doesn't matter who they replace him with - it could be the char lady.
    Liz Truss comeback?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,852

    Scott_xP said:

    So while Leon has been spamming the site for weeks with AI and pictures, he hasn't posted this...

    I got an AI to simulate how British political figures would look like if they were villains

    1/Rishi Sunak https://twitter.com/2015Jmr/status/1611749426078355456/photo/1


    He's fallen for the old "exploding tie" gag.
    He looks a bit Grand Theft Auto.

    Nothing Drives Down Prices More Like A Good Old-Fashioned Gang War.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,690
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    I wouldn't be surprised to see mass demonstrations, anarchy, and a general strike this year.

    When Sunak has his Ceaușescu moment, then we'll have a General Election.

    I've never known such visceral anger.

    I think suggesting Rishi and his wife will be shot by the mob like the Ceaucescus is a little excessive and the left at its worst. We Tories had to wait 3 years to get rid of Brown as PM.

    Unlike Romania then we are a democracy and voters will get their say on his government in due course
    Sunak has been bad, and a predictable misstep. He offers no hope to the country, or the party. They have a slim chance of redemption if they boot him before the election. It doesn't matter who they replace him with - it could be the char lady.
    Liz Truss comeback?
    Better than what's there by a country mile. This isn't a Government. It's not a bad Government or a good Government - they aren't Governing.
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    Heathener said:

    I wouldn't be surprised to see mass demonstrations, anarchy, and a general strike this year.

    When Sunak has his Ceaușescu moment, then we'll have a General Election.

    I've never known such visceral anger.

    Can you orient us a bit? Last we heard you are an educationalist and too young to remember GE 1997. How much visceral anger have you seen ever, and where are you seeing the current batch?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,200
    FPT

    "In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

    Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,303
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    I’m not at all convinced that we’re in a similar position to 1989 Romania.
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    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Scott_xP said:
    The Joker, or creepy circus ringmaster?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223
    dixiedean said:

    How is that offside?
    LiVARpool again tonight.

    I'm going to rewind and have a good look at it, but I couldn't spot it. And remember, the on-field assistant putting his flag up makes no difference. The AVAR re-referees the game.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,852

    Scott_xP said:
    The Joker, or creepy circus ringmaster?
    It's certainly the most disturbing one.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,828
    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    "In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

    Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

    lol, no

    I did actually investigate the details

    He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)

    A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night

    2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up

    And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich
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    Scott_xP said:
    That flatters her.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,690
    Scott_xP said:
    Its portraiture is always this little bit off in a strange way. I think it's the features that remain of some of the other faces they've used.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,308
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    I wouldn't be surprised to see mass demonstrations, anarchy, and a general strike this year.

    When Sunak has his Ceaușescu moment, then we'll have a General Election.

    I've never known such visceral anger.

    I think suggesting Rishi and his wife will be shot by the mob like the Ceaucescus is a little excessive and the left at its worst. We Tories had to wait 3 years to get rid of Brown as PM.

    Unlike Romania then we are a democracy and voters will get their say on his government in due course
    Sunak has been bad, and a predictable misstep. He offers no hope to the country, or the party. They have a slim chance of redemption if they boot him before the election. It doesn't matter who they replace him with - it could be the char lady.
    Liz Truss comeback?
    No way, the last Yougov under Truss had the Tories on 19% and Labour on 56% and virtually every Tory MP losing their seat.

    At least Sunak has cut the Labour lead, even if it is still bigger than when Boris resigned
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223
    Now that's interesting if Seb Hutchinson is right. I was under the impression that the AVAR had to guess if they didn't have a clear view of an offside call. I thought the on-field assistant's opinion counted for nothing.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,690
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    I wouldn't be surprised to see mass demonstrations, anarchy, and a general strike this year.

    When Sunak has his Ceaușescu moment, then we'll have a General Election.

    I've never known such visceral anger.

    I think suggesting Rishi and his wife will be shot by the mob like the Ceaucescus is a little excessive and the left at its worst. We Tories had to wait 3 years to get rid of Brown as PM.

    Unlike Romania then we are a democracy and voters will get their say on his government in due course
    Sunak has been bad, and a predictable misstep. He offers no hope to the country, or the party. They have a slim chance of redemption if they boot him before the election. It doesn't matter who they replace him with - it could be the char lady.
    Liz Truss comeback?
    No way, the last Yougov under Truss had the Tories on 19% and Labour on 56% and virtually every Tory MP losing their seat.

    At least Sunak has cut the Labour lead, even if it is still bigger than when Boris resigned
    Time has cut the Labour lead. And it has cut it very modestly. Stupid Tory MPs and Conservative supporters have brought in a 0% effective Government in exchange for a couple of measly points on the polls that will make little to no difference to the outcome.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,308

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    I wouldn't be surprised to see mass demonstrations, anarchy, and a general strike this year.

    When Sunak has his Ceaușescu moment, then we'll have a General Election.

    I've never known such visceral anger.

    I think suggesting Rishi and his wife will be shot by the mob like the Ceaucescus is a little excessive and the left at its worst. We Tories had to wait 3 years to get rid of Brown as PM.

    Unlike Romania then we are a democracy and voters will get their say on his government in due course
    Sunak has been bad, and a predictable misstep. He offers no hope to the country, or the party. They have a slim chance of redemption if they boot him before the election. It doesn't matter who they replace him with - it could be the char lady.
    Liz Truss comeback?
    No way, the last Yougov under Truss had the Tories on 19% and Labour on 56% and virtually every Tory MP losing their seat.

    At least Sunak has cut the Labour lead, even if it is still bigger than when Boris resigned
    Time has cut the Labour lead. And it has cut it very modestly. Stupid Tory MPs and Conservative supporters have brought in a 0% effective Government in exchange for a couple of measly points on the polls that will make little to no difference to the outcome.
    The latest Yougov gives the Tories over 100 seats, the last Yougov under Truss gave the Tories about 0 seats
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    Scott_xP said:
    Liz Truss can smile?
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Scott_xP said:
    The most true to life.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,200
    Carl Benjamin aka Sargon of Akkad has also been recently reinstated on Twitter.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,828

    Scott_xP said:
    Its portraiture is always this little bit off in a strange way. I think it's the features that remain of some of the other faces they've used.
    Remember this is AI with severe guardrails, preventing it from painting anything sexy, troubling, naughty, porno, "in the style of", and which is explicitly hobbled when it comes to DeepFakes and real life people

    Yet it is still this good

    AI unleashed is gonna terrify the fuck out of people, and seriously roil our perception of reality. Coming soon
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,588
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    "In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

    Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

    lol, no

    I did actually investigate the details

    He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)

    A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night

    2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up

    And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich
    Interestingly, 120 years ago the Swiss were grindingly poor. Amazing what staying out of two world wars will do for your finances.
    Along with 100 years of pretty good decision-making, of course.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,852
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    "In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

    Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

    lol, no

    I did actually investigate the details

    He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)

    A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night

    2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up

    And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich
    I'd be astonished if that were true.

    Swiss median income is certainly higher than ours, but it's not that high.

    He was probably just trying to anchor you on his prices.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,308
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    "In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

    Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

    lol, no

    I did actually investigate the details

    He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)

    A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night

    2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up

    And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich
    Interestingly, 120 years ago the Swiss were grindingly poor. Amazing what staying out of two world wars will do for your finances.
    Along with 100 years of pretty good decision-making, of course.
    And low taxes
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,588
    HYUFD said:

    I guess the nearest precedent for a flailing PM calling a crisis election to try to assert their authority would be Heath in '74, and we all know how that ended.

    Question for those who know of those times- did the Grocer think the snap election would play to his advantage? And what was Atlee thinking of in 1951?

    Or May in 2017.

    The only snap elections which came off were Wilson's in 1966 and October 1974 and only because he had won the narrowest of majorities before
    May wasn't really flailing in 2017 though - she called the election off some stonkingly good local election results and some very favourable opinion polls which in places were predicting Labour down to sub-150 seats. All was looking very encouraging indeed for May in May 2017.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,828
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    "In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

    Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

    lol, no

    I did actually investigate the details

    He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)

    A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night

    2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up

    And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich
    Interestingly, 120 years ago the Swiss were grindingly poor. Amazing what staying out of two world wars will do for your finances.
    Along with 100 years of pretty good decision-making, of course.
    Yep, it's incredible

    The same hotel manager told me of a rough mountain bar - a "grotto" in the localese - quite near the Eden Roc. The bar is called "the Americano". Why? Because in the late 19th early 20th century, this is where would-be Swiss emigrants would meet, for the last time, in their impoverished country, before heading away to America, never to return

    The idea that a Swiss person would emigrate, now, to the troubled USA is ridiculous

    That's how far Switzerland has come from dire poverty. Good governance, strict armed neutrality, low taxes, sensible referendums, trust the people: it has all worked, over 100 years

    This is also the reason for the Swiss Guards at the Vatican. Swiss men were mercenaries for centuries because there was no choice and their families were all starving, and adorned with goitres
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Liz Truss in Napoleonic Uniform.

    https://twitter.com/Wilson_2003x/status/1611740780367958017

    Images of Sunak, Starmer, Johnson, May, Cameron and Osborne are also on that feed.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,588

    Scott_xP said:
    That flatters her.
    It's seldom commented on, because people often can't bear to concede any merits at all to politicians they dislike, but Truss has been by some way the best looking PM of my lifetime. She was quite pleasant looking.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,690
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    I wouldn't be surprised to see mass demonstrations, anarchy, and a general strike this year.

    When Sunak has his Ceaușescu moment, then we'll have a General Election.

    I've never known such visceral anger.

    I think suggesting Rishi and his wife will be shot by the mob like the Ceaucescus is a little excessive and the left at its worst. We Tories had to wait 3 years to get rid of Brown as PM.

    Unlike Romania then we are a democracy and voters will get their say on his government in due course
    Sunak has been bad, and a predictable misstep. He offers no hope to the country, or the party. They have a slim chance of redemption if they boot him before the election. It doesn't matter who they replace him with - it could be the char lady.
    Liz Truss comeback?
    No way, the last Yougov under Truss had the Tories on 19% and Labour on 56% and virtually every Tory MP losing their seat.

    At least Sunak has cut the Labour lead, even if it is still bigger than when Boris resigned
    Time has cut the Labour lead. And it has cut it very modestly. Stupid Tory MPs and Conservative supporters have brought in a 0% effective Government in exchange for a couple of measly points on the polls that will make little to no difference to the outcome.
    The latest Yougov gives the Tories over 100 seats, the last Yougov under Truss gave the Tories about 0 seats
    Can you give a past example of when opinion polls have remained completely static for two years?
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,690
    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That flatters her.
    It's seldom commented on, because people often can't bear to concede any merits at all to politicians they dislike, but Truss has been by some way the best looking PM of my lifetime. She was quite pleasant looking.
    I agree with pleasant looking. Nice smile. Mordaunt is a looker.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,200

    Scott_xP said:
    That flatters her.
    Not sure. I think she could be made up to look pretty similar to this.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,852
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    I guess the nearest precedent for a flailing PM calling a crisis election to try to assert their authority would be Heath in '74, and we all know how that ended.

    Question for those who know of those times- did the Grocer think the snap election would play to his advantage? And what was Atlee thinking of in 1951?

    Or May in 2017.

    The only snap elections which came off were Wilson's in 1966 and October 1974 and only because he had won the narrowest of majorities before
    May wasn't really flailing in 2017 though - she called the election off some stonkingly good local election results and some very favourable opinion polls which in places were predicting Labour down to sub-150 seats. All was looking very encouraging indeed for May in May 2017.
    Until she fell prey to hubris and got found out.

    She forgot the first rule of manifestos is to win elections.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,828

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    "In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

    Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

    lol, no

    I did actually investigate the details

    He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)

    A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night

    2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up

    And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich
    I'd be astonished if that were true.

    Swiss median income is certainly higher than ours, but it's not that high.

    He was probably just trying to anchor you on his prices.
    It's really not mad

    This is not Swiss working class people (but how many of them are there?!). This is the Swiss middle classes

    Let's take an average solicitor. They earn - Google tells me - 160,000 Swiss Francs a year. That's about £150,000

    So an average lawyer is on a City banker's salary. That's how they can afford £15k holidays

    Or, take a Swiss primary school teacher. They earn £70,000 a year. Much more in Zurich

    https://www.thelocal.ch/20200826/what-do-teachers-earn-in-switzerland-and-where-do-they-earn-the-most

    So a kindy teacher in Zurich earns what an MP earns in London
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    RobD said:

    Heathener said:

    I wouldn't be surprised to see mass demonstrations, anarchy, and a general strike this year.

    When Sunak has his Ceaușescu moment, then we'll have a General Election.

    I've never known such visceral anger.

    Heathener said:

    I wouldn't be surprised to see mass demonstrations, anarchy, and a general strike this year.

    When Sunak has his Ceaușescu moment, then we'll have a General Election.

    I've never known such visceral anger.

    You think he’s going to face a drumhead trial and then be summarily executed?

    Step away from the keyboard.
    Someone's been talking to themselves.....
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,303
    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,690
    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
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    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    "In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

    Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

    lol, no

    I did actually investigate the details

    He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)

    A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night

    2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up

    And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich
    I'd be astonished if that were true.

    Swiss median income is certainly higher than ours, but it's not that high.

    He was probably just trying to anchor you on his prices.
    It's really not mad

    This is not Swiss working class people (but how many of them are there?!). This is the Swiss middle classes

    Let's take an average solicitor. They earn - Google tells me - 160,000 Swiss Francs a year. That's about £150,000

    So an average lawyer is on a City banker's salary. That's how they can afford £15k holidays

    Or, take a Swiss primary school teacher. They earn £70,000 a year. Much more in Zurich

    https://www.thelocal.ch/20200826/what-do-teachers-earn-in-switzerland-and-where-do-they-earn-the-most

    So a kindy teacher in Zurich earns what an MP earns in London
    Including moat dredging and other parliamentary perks?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,852
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    "In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

    Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

    lol, no

    I did actually investigate the details

    He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)

    A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night

    2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up

    And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich
    I'd be astonished if that were true.

    Swiss median income is certainly higher than ours, but it's not that high.

    He was probably just trying to anchor you on his prices.
    It's really not mad

    This is not Swiss working class people (but how many of them are there?!). This is the Swiss middle classes

    Let's take an average solicitor. They earn - Google tells me - 160,000 Swiss Francs a year. That's about £150,000

    So an average lawyer is on a City banker's salary. That's how they can afford £15k holidays

    Or, take a Swiss primary school teacher. They earn £70,000 a year. Much more in Zurich

    https://www.thelocal.ch/20200826/what-do-teachers-earn-in-switzerland-and-where-do-they-earn-the-most

    So a kindy teacher in Zurich earns what an MP earns in London
    I can believe it but at the prices you quoted that would be 10% of their entire annual income, and that's before tax.

    The equivalent here would be a solicitor (say on 50k) spending 5k on an annual family holiday.

    Sure, some will do it. But most won't.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,828
    From that link

    "The average wage for kindergarten teachers in Switzerland is CHF73,963 (+CHF730 compared to 2019), while the maximum is CHF112,311 (+CHF1071 compared to 2019). "

    I'll do the maths for you. In British this says:

    The average wage for kindergarten teachers in Switzerland is £65,914, while the maximum is £100,089

    Kindergarten teachers. On £100k
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,852
    Could see this happening


  • Options
    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    Did Brits ever see - or still remember - "Peanuts"?

    Including this classic interaction between Lucy and Charlie Brown?

    https://peanuts.fandom.com/wiki/Football_gag?file=19651017Football.png
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,690

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    Did Brits ever see - or still remember - "Peanuts"?

    Including this classic interaction between Lucy and Charlie Brown?

    https://peanuts.fandom.com/wiki/Football_gag?file=19651017Football.png
    Yes. Snoopy is (was?) a popular thing here. Sure I had a t-shirt as a boy.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,828

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    "In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

    Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

    lol, no

    I did actually investigate the details

    He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)

    A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night

    2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up

    And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich
    I'd be astonished if that were true.

    Swiss median income is certainly higher than ours, but it's not that high.

    He was probably just trying to anchor you on his prices.
    It's really not mad

    This is not Swiss working class people (but how many of them are there?!). This is the Swiss middle classes

    Let's take an average solicitor. They earn - Google tells me - 160,000 Swiss Francs a year. That's about £150,000

    So an average lawyer is on a City banker's salary. That's how they can afford £15k holidays

    Or, take a Swiss primary school teacher. They earn £70,000 a year. Much more in Zurich

    https://www.thelocal.ch/20200826/what-do-teachers-earn-in-switzerland-and-where-do-they-earn-the-most

    So a kindy teacher in Zurich earns what an MP earns in London
    I can believe it but at the prices you quoted that would be 10% of their entire annual income, and that's before tax.

    The equivalent here would be a solicitor (say on 50k) spending 5k on an annual family holiday.

    Sure, some will do it. But most won't.
    PLENTY of people will spunk ten percent of their income on a holiday. I've met them. I know them. For a lot of people the summer holiday is THE highlight of the year, and well worth the dosh

    Personally I am amazed they don't go abroad - even to France, Spain or Italy, and get much better deals at much cheaper prices - but apparently the Swiss love Switzerland. The manager told me his hotel barely suffered from Covid because of this loyal local custom

    And, really, if you are a solicitor in Lucerne on £150,000 a year, dropping £15k on a holiday is nothing dramatic. You still have £135,000 to play with. You will survive
  • Options

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,561
    "Over 10% of Swiss nationals residing abroad live in the United States. Some 460,000 Swiss nationals emigrated to the United States between 1700 and 2018. At the end of 2020, there were 81,335 Swiss citizens registered in the country."
    source: https://www.eda.admin.ch/countries/usa/en/home/switzerland-and/bilateral-relations.html

    There is much more data on Swiss/US relations at that site.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,828

    "Over 10% of Swiss nationals residing abroad live in the United States. Some 460,000 Swiss nationals emigrated to the United States between 1700 and 2018. At the end of 2020, there were 81,335 Swiss citizens registered in the country."
    source: https://www.eda.admin.ch/countries/usa/en/home/switzerland-and/bilateral-relations.html

    There is much more data on Swiss/US relations at that site.

    They must be clamouring to come home to Switzerland. If they can afford it. They probably can't
  • Options
    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,978

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
    If I were Sunak, I’d just say fine, let’s call a GE then. Good luck to the Johnson lovers and ERG mob
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    "In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

    Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

    lol, no

    I did actually investigate the details

    He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)

    A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night

    2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up

    And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich
    Interestingly, 120 years ago the Swiss were grindingly poor. Amazing what staying out of two world wars will do for your finances.
    Along with 100 years of pretty good decision-making, of course.
    And low taxes
    The provision of confidential banking services with no questions asked has also been a pretty good earner for the Swiss.
  • Options

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
    If I were Sunak, I’d just say fine, let’s call a GE then. Good luck to the Johnson lovers and ERG mob
    The conservative party need to consign Johnson and ERG to history otherwise the electorate will in 24

  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,828

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    Did Brits ever see - or still remember - "Peanuts"?

    Including this classic interaction between Lucy and Charlie Brown?

    https://peanuts.fandom.com/wiki/Football_gag?file=19651017Football.png
    I did. I loved the music. Vince Guaraldi!

    This was my favourite

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kn4Y3sHyfsg
  • Options
    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That flatters her.
    It's seldom commented on, because people often can't bear to concede any merits at all to politicians they dislike, but Truss has been by some way the best looking PM of my lifetime. She was quite pleasant looking.
    "Should've gone to Specsavers!" :lol:
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,245
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    "In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

    Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

    lol, no

    I did actually investigate the details

    He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)

    A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night

    2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up

    And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich
    Interestingly, 120 years ago the Swiss were grindingly poor. Amazing what staying out of two world wars will do for your finances.
    Along with 100 years of pretty good decision-making, of course.

    Imagine what the whole of Europe might have been like, had it avoided the two world wars.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,828
    Nigelb said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    "In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

    Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

    lol, no

    I did actually investigate the details

    He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)

    A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night

    2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up

    And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich
    Interestingly, 120 years ago the Swiss were grindingly poor. Amazing what staying out of two world wars will do for your finances.
    Along with 100 years of pretty good decision-making, of course.

    Imagine what the whole of Europe might have been like, had it avoided the two world wars.
    Is a very interesting point. Europe might have ended up unimaginably wealthy. The British might still be the richest people on earth. An entire and beautiful continent, the loveliest place on earth by a distance, as wealthy as Liechtenstein or Qatar

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,852
    Nigelb said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    "In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

    Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

    lol, no

    I did actually investigate the details

    He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)

    A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night

    2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up

    And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich
    Interestingly, 120 years ago the Swiss were grindingly poor. Amazing what staying out of two world wars will do for your finances.
    Along with 100 years of pretty good decision-making, of course.

    Imagine what the whole of Europe might have been like, had it avoided the two world wars.
    August 1914 was what happened when statecraft failed; October 1962 was what happened when it didn't.

    Interestingly, Kennedy was a strong student of the former, which probably helped.

    Leaders matter.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,200
    In 1990 Switzerland was the richest country in the world per capita. Now I think it's down at something like number 10.
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,135

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
    More to the point, replacing Sunak with anybody else (including Johnson) won't solve the fundamental problem, which is the Conservative Party itself. The country has fallen apart under Conservative rule. The Tories have nothing to show for their entire spell in Government except for having enriched their own core support whilst impoverishing almost everyone else. For everyone save the usual suspects (plutocrats, very high earners, and comfortably-off pensioners who own expensive houses,) they've been a complete and unmitigated disaster. Anyone who has to rely on the NHS, on public transport, indeed who can't whistle up a helicopter to avoid the cratered roads altogether, has watched the horror show unfold as pretty much everything has stopped working. They've just about managed to keep the lights on - so far - and I think one can still reasonably argue that Johnson was a less catastrophic choice of Prime Minister than Jeremy Corbyn, but that represents the sum total of their achievements.

    They're hopeless, and have made most of the population feel hopeless through their long and dismal record of near-total failure. The best thing that could happen at this juncture is if the Parliamentary Conservative Party could be completely decimated at the next election and then spend a very, very long time indeed in Opposition. Sadly, I doubt that the nation will be that fortunate.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,245
    Town planning we might do worse than emulate.

    Whenever they tell you a change is impossible, show them Utrecht.

    An urban freeway with many lanes can become a green park with a beautiful canal. Instead of a car sewer, the water flows.

    https://twitter.com/LiorSteinberg/status/1611376172096438272
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,690
    edited January 2023

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
    He hasn't mitigated anything. He has actively damaged the oil and gas industry that is so crucial to protect out energy security and prevent the impoverishment of bill payers. He has damaged economic growth, turning sharply into a recession, and that will now make his stated aim of 'balancing the books' harder, because of lower tax receipts. He has raised taxation to levels unimagined by Jeremy Corbyn. He has shown zero attempt to reverse or even mildly critique our disastrous public sector productivity. He has utterly mismanaged the pay dispute with the NHS. He has been supine in the face of civil servants, central bankers, the EU, the Green lobby, and frankly any other pisstaker with a fancy title. This is an absent Government.
  • Options
    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    Also a lot of leavers they could pull.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,034
    Wind up to 20.2gw with gas still up at 3gw so the record looks very much on. Again.

    Sometime in 2023 I think we’ll go 100% non fossil fuel for electricity, probably in May or June on a sunny and windy weekend midday.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,690

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
    If I were Sunak, I’d just say fine, let’s call a GE then. Good luck to the Johnson lovers and ERG mob
    I'm not sure on what basis Sunak would object to parliamentary wispering campaigns against him, given that that's how he got the job in the first place.
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,157

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    Did Brits ever see - or still remember - "Peanuts"?

    Including this classic interaction between Lucy and Charlie Brown?

    https://peanuts.fandom.com/wiki/Football_gag?file=19651017Football.png
    Yes. Snoopy is (was?) a popular thing here. Sure I had a t-shirt as a boy.
    My daughter has recently ploughed through a zillion 70s books of compiled strips.

    There was a great exhibition about Lucy at Downing College's tiny art gallery, quite recently.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,690

    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That flatters her.
    It's seldom commented on, because people often can't bear to concede any merits at all to politicians they dislike, but Truss has been by some way the best looking PM of my lifetime. She was quite pleasant looking.
    "Should've gone to Specsavers!" :lol:
    Says someone who recently expressed a partiality to TMay.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,828
    For comparison a kindy teacher in the UK makes on average £30k

    https://nationalcareers.service.gov.uk/job-profiles/early-years-teacher

    The same person in Switzerland makes £70-100k

    Swiss people earn about 2.5-3 times what British people earn

  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    "In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

    Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

    lol, no

    I did actually investigate the details

    He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)

    A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night

    2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up

    And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich
    Interestingly, 120 years ago the Swiss were grindingly poor. Amazing what staying out of two world wars will do for your finances.
    Along with 100 years of pretty good decision-making, of course.

    Imagine what the whole of Europe might have been like, had it avoided the two world wars.
    Quite a bit behind on technology and medicine, which may or may not have been a price worth paying. All that youthful talent allowed to live fruitful lives, not least several million Jews, to make up for it of course.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,034
    Nigelb said:

    Town planning we might do worse than emulate.

    Whenever they tell you a change is impossible, show them Utrecht.

    An urban freeway with many lanes can become a green park with a beautiful canal. Instead of a car sewer, the water flows.

    https://twitter.com/LiorSteinberg/status/1611376172096438272

    The quality of the living space around us is such a neglected political priority.

    Various cities in flat, cold and wet, traditionally industrial and generally non-glamorous parts of Northern Europe have managed to create a quality of life through urban planning and landscaping that we absolutely could but don’t emulate.

    A few months ago I wandered through a very humdrum suburb of Amsterdam made up of 60s housing not unlike what we have in the UK, but the way it was laid out: the greenery, the paths and cycle ways, water surfaces, street furniture: it all was just so pleasant.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    If Boris engineers a coup ( again) and becomes leader again, does anyone remotely believe that this in any way settles the matter.
  • Options

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
    He hasn't mitigated anything. He has actively damaged the oil and gas industry that is so crucial to protect out energy security and prevent the impoverishment of bill payers. He has damaged economic growth, turning sharply into a recession, and that will now make his stated aim of 'balancing the books' harder, because of lower tax receipts. He has raised taxation to levels unimagined by Jeremy Corbyn. He has shown zero attempt to reverse or even mildly critique our disastrous public sector productivity. He has utterly mismanaged the pay dispute with the NHS. He has been supine in the face of civil servants, central bankers, the EU, the Green lobby, and frankly any other pisstaker with a fancy title. This is an absent Government.
    Sadly you seem to be in denial as to the damage Johnson and Truss caused and Sunak with Hunt are beginning to repair that damage even evidenced by lower mortgage offers last week than before Truss

    As for windfall taxes they are being applied across the EU and in the UK and are very much supported by the population

    ERG, Johnson and Farage supporters are yesterday's news as the country sidelines them along with Corbynites

    The political future of this country is in a one nation approach and is likely to see Starmer lead it in 2 years time and certainly bringing back Johnson is an extinction event for the conservative party and he would lose his seat anyway

  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,034

    Nigelb said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    "In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

    Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

    lol, no

    I did actually investigate the details

    He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)

    A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night

    2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up

    And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich
    Interestingly, 120 years ago the Swiss were grindingly poor. Amazing what staying out of two world wars will do for your finances.
    Along with 100 years of pretty good decision-making, of course.

    Imagine what the whole of Europe might have been like, had it avoided the two world wars.
    Quite a bit behind on technology and medicine, which may or may not have been a price worth paying. All that youthful talent allowed to live fruitful lives, not least several million Jews, to make up for it of course.
    Potentially much more unequal than we are, too. The 2 world wars were big social levellers. Probably no EU. Delayed decolonisation. No iron curtain.

    But it’s hard to imagine a Europe where those
    geopolitical tensions didn’t crystallise into war of revolution at some stage.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    edited January 2023

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
    He hasn't mitigated anything. He has actively damaged the oil and gas industry that is so crucial to protect out energy security and prevent the impoverishment of bill payers. He has damaged economic growth, turning sharply into a recession, and that will now make his stated aim of 'balancing the books' harder, because of lower tax receipts. He has raised taxation to levels unimagined by Jeremy Corbyn. He has shown zero attempt to reverse or even mildly critique our disastrous public sector productivity. He has utterly mismanaged the pay dispute with the NHS. He has been supine in the face of civil servants, central bankers, the EU, the Green lobby, and frankly any other pisstaker with a fancy title. This is an absent Government.
    Sadly you seem to be in denial as to the damage Johnson and Truss caused and Sunak with Hunt are beginning to repair that damage even evidenced by lower mortgage offers last week than before Truss

    As for windfall taxes they are being applied across the EU and in the UK and are very much supported by the population

    ERG, Johnson and Farage supporters are yesterday's news as the country sidelines them along with Corbynites

    The political future of this country is in a one nation approach and is likely to see Starmer lead it in 2 years time and certainly bringing back Johnson is an extinction event for the conservative party and he would lose his seat anyway

    I’m not sure the technocratic managerialism of Sunak and Hunt is doing the country or the Conservative Party much good.
  • Options
    Jonathan said:

    If Boris engineers a coup ( again) and becomes leader again, does anyone remotely believe that this in any way settles the matter.

    Only the ERG and right of the party

  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,690
    edited January 2023

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
    He hasn't mitigated anything. He has actively damaged the oil and gas industry that is so crucial to protect out energy security and prevent the impoverishment of bill payers. He has damaged economic growth, turning sharply into a recession, and that will now make his stated aim of 'balancing the books' harder, because of lower tax receipts. He has raised taxation to levels unimagined by Jeremy Corbyn. He has shown zero attempt to reverse or even mildly critique our disastrous public sector productivity. He has utterly mismanaged the pay dispute with the NHS. He has been supine in the face of civil servants, central bankers, the EU, the Green lobby, and frankly any other pisstaker with a fancy title. This is an absent Government.
    Sadly you seem to be in denial as to the damage Johnson and Truss caused and Sunak with Hunt are beginning to repair that damage even evidenced by lower mortgage offers last week than before Truss

    As for windfall taxes they are being applied across the EU and in the UK and are very much supported by the population

    ERG, Johnson and Farage supporters are yesterday's news as the country sidelines them along with Corbynites

    The political future of this country is in a one nation approach and is likely to see Starmer lead it in 2 years time and certainly bringing back Johnson is an extinction event for the conservative party and he would lose his seat anyway

    Sadly, and somewhat understandably, it is you who appears to be in deep denial - that a crappy PM with a miserable anti-growth agenda that you foolishly and shortsightedly urged on the party for political expediency, has utterly failed even on that paltry measure, let alone in successfully running a country. A few measly points in the polls that probably would have happened anyway, and you now acknowledge that Labour will win the next election, so what on earth was the point?
  • Options
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
    He hasn't mitigated anything. He has actively damaged the oil and gas industry that is so crucial to protect out energy security and prevent the impoverishment of bill payers. He has damaged economic growth, turning sharply into a recession, and that will now make his stated aim of 'balancing the books' harder, because of lower tax receipts. He has raised taxation to levels unimagined by Jeremy Corbyn. He has shown zero attempt to reverse or even mildly critique our disastrous public sector productivity. He has utterly mismanaged the pay dispute with the NHS. He has been supine in the face of civil servants, central bankers, the EU, the Green lobby, and frankly any other pisstaker with a fancy title. This is an absent Government.
    Sadly you seem to be in denial as to the damage Johnson and Truss caused and Sunak with Hunt are beginning to repair that damage even evidenced by lower mortgage offers last week than before Truss

    As for windfall taxes they are being applied across the EU and in the UK and are very much supported by the population

    ERG, Johnson and Farage supporters are yesterday's news as the country sidelines them along with Corbynites

    The political future of this country is in a one nation approach and is likely to see Starmer lead it in 2 years time and certainly bringing back Johnson is an extinction event for the conservative party and he would lose his seat anyway

    I’m not sure the technocratic managerialism of Sunak and Hunt is doing the country or the Conservative Party much good.
    They have stabilised the country financially from the disaster that was Truss
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,733
    Question to which the answer is no.

    There are only four routes to a General Election at any time:

    1. The five year term for Parliament expiring.
    2. The Prime Minister calling for one (and the Monarch accepting the need)
    3. The LotO calls and wins a VoNC in the House of Commons and its clear no alternative government can be formed.
    4. Some sort of disaster resulting in such a significant number of vacancies in the House of Commons that the government/PM feels duty bound to call a General Election.

    1. Will happen with the passage of time. 28th January 2025 [1]. But that doesn't get us a GE in 2023.
    2. I really can't see this happening. Sunaks ratings are poor, his honeymoon appears over, the Conservatives are stuggling to get out of the high 20s in the polls and personally I can't see any obvious improvement between now and (say) October that would warranty an early attempt.
    3. With a government majority of about 70 still, this isn't realistically happening.
    4. This doesn't have to be a morbid event. You could get (say) 200 MPs all suddenly deciding that they wanted to run off to the circus. Depending on who these MPs are (let's say they were all Conservative), the change in the makeup of the HoC could result in Labour taking government whilst by-elections are pending and even once settled, there is a good chance that many of those might be lost anyway, hence the PM basically is forced to call a GE to head off the inevitable change in government WITHOUT a General Election.
    I'll leave others to decide the likelihood of this event, but I suspect its pretty much nil.

    Of the above, only (2) has a chance that isn't effectively zero, but 12% it isn't. More like 1%.


    [1] I don't think Sunak will do it, but am I right in thinking that if he does go to the death, it'll be the longest gap between General Elections since 1945?

  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,471
    edited January 2023

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
    He hasn't mitigated anything. He has actively damaged the oil and gas industry that is so crucial to protect out energy security and prevent the impoverishment of bill payers. He has damaged economic growth, turning sharply into a recession, and that will now make his stated aim of 'balancing the books' harder, because of lower tax receipts. He has raised taxation to levels unimagined by Jeremy Corbyn. He has shown zero attempt to reverse or even mildly critique our disastrous public sector productivity. He has utterly mismanaged the pay dispute with the NHS. He has been supine in the face of civil servants, central bankers, the EU, the Green lobby, and frankly any other pisstaker with a fancy title. This is an absent Government.
    Sadly you seem to be in denial as to the damage Johnson and Truss caused and Sunak with Hunt are beginning to repair that damage even evidenced by lower mortgage offers last week than before Truss

    As for windfall taxes they are being applied across the EU and in the UK and are very much supported by the population

    ERG, Johnson and Farage supporters are yesterday's news as the country sidelines them along with Corbynites

    The political future of this country is in a one nation approach and is likely to see Starmer lead it in 2 years time and certainly bringing back Johnson is an extinction event for the conservative party and he would lose his seat anyway

    Sadly, and somewhat understandably, it is you who appears to be in deep denial - that a crappy PM with a miserable anti-growth agenda that you foolishly and shortsightedly urged on the party for political expediency, has utterly failed even on that paltry measure, let alone in successfully running a country. A few measly points in the polls that probably would have happened anyway, and you now acknowledge that Labour will win the next election, so what on earth was the point?
    The reason Labour are likely to win the next GE is directly the responsibility of the disasters of Johnson and Truss and Sunak is the only chance of mitigating the result
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,690

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
    He hasn't mitigated anything. He has actively damaged the oil and gas industry that is so crucial to protect out energy security and prevent the impoverishment of bill payers. He has damaged economic growth, turning sharply into a recession, and that will now make his stated aim of 'balancing the books' harder, because of lower tax receipts. He has raised taxation to levels unimagined by Jeremy Corbyn. He has shown zero attempt to reverse or even mildly critique our disastrous public sector productivity. He has utterly mismanaged the pay dispute with the NHS. He has been supine in the face of civil servants, central bankers, the EU, the Green lobby, and frankly any other pisstaker with a fancy title. This is an absent Government.
    Sadly you seem to be in denial as to the damage Johnson and Truss caused and Sunak with Hunt are beginning to repair that damage even evidenced by lower mortgage offers last week than before Truss

    As for windfall taxes they are being applied across the EU and in the UK and are very much supported by the population

    ERG, Johnson and Farage supporters are yesterday's news as the country sidelines them along with Corbynites

    The political future of this country is in a one nation approach and is likely to see Starmer lead it in 2 years time and certainly bringing back Johnson is an extinction event for the conservative party and he would lose his seat anyway

    I’m not sure the technocratic managerialism of Sunak and Hunt is doing the country or the Conservative Party much good.
    They have stabilised the country financially from the disaster that was Truss
    They have stabilised us into a recession from Truss's disastrous period of economic growth.
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,561
    On the whole, I think I have seen declines in food prices in this part of the United States, in recent months. And the data here suggests it is not my imagination: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/food-inflation

    There are exceptions. The latest price I paid for a dozen large eggs was $3.39, (The most common price I saw in previous years was $1.99, with occasional specials at $0.99.) I expect the price will moderate as US producers recover from the avian flu. I wouldn't be surprised if the price settles at, for example, $2.49, by the end of this year.

    (There is, currently, a very wide regional variation in egg prices in the US. I'm not sure why, but differential effects of the avian flu could explain much of it.)

  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,656
    TimS said:

    Wind up to 20.2gw with gas still up at 3gw so the record looks very much on. Again.

    Sometime in 2023 I think we’ll go 100% non fossil fuel for electricity, probably in May or June on a sunny and windy weekend midday.

    I think that's quite unlikely. National Grid seem to like to keep a bit of gas running because it's relatively quick to scale up and down to match demand.

    At some point in the future there will be enough storage that they'll be able to use the storage for that role, but not this year.

    Remind me of this if I'm proved wrong!
This discussion has been closed.