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Could there be an election this year? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,787
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    "In the second resort (Eden Roc, Ascona) the manager told me my room cost £800 a night and “average Swiss families will pay that”"

    Not too bad if it's 4 people in a room.

    lol, no

    I did actually investigate the details

    He said Swiss families come back time and again, and they classically book two rooms for four people - a twin room for the two kids, and a double for the mum and dad (obvs there are variations)

    A double with full lakeview balcony like mine, in high summer, is £800-£1000 per night

    2 x room, x 7 nights = £12-14,000. Just for the rooms. A week's holibobs. £15k and up

    And he said this was not an issue for fairly ordinary Swiss customers. The Swiss are seriously rich
    I'd be astonished if that were true.

    Swiss median income is certainly higher than ours, but it's not that high.

    He was probably just trying to anchor you on his prices.
    It's really not mad

    This is not Swiss working class people (but how many of them are there?!). This is the Swiss middle classes

    Let's take an average solicitor. They earn - Google tells me - 160,000 Swiss Francs a year. That's about £150,000

    So an average lawyer is on a City banker's salary. That's how they can afford £15k holidays

    Or, take a Swiss primary school teacher. They earn £70,000 a year. Much more in Zurich

    https://www.thelocal.ch/20200826/what-do-teachers-earn-in-switzerland-and-where-do-they-earn-the-most

    So a kindy teacher in Zurich earns what an MP earns in London
    I can believe it but at the prices you quoted that would be 10% of their entire annual income, and that's before tax.

    The equivalent here would be a solicitor (say on 50k) spending 5k on an annual family holiday.

    Sure, some will do it. But most won't.
    PLENTY of people will spunk ten percent of their income on a holiday. I've met them. I know them. For a lot of people the summer holiday is THE highlight of the year, and well worth the dosh

    Personally I am amazed they don't go abroad - even to France, Spain or Italy, and get much better deals at much cheaper prices - but apparently the Swiss love Switzerland. The manager told me his hotel barely suffered from Covid because of this loyal local custom

    And, really, if you are a solicitor in Lucerne on £150,000 a year, dropping £15k on a holiday is nothing dramatic. You still have £135,000 to play with. You will survive
    They would normally have two incomes though, so the percentage of overall income aren't that high. What are income tax levels like?

  • Options

    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That flatters her.
    It's seldom commented on, because people often can't bear to concede any merits at all to politicians they dislike, but Truss has been by some way the best looking PM of my lifetime. She was quite pleasant looking.
    "Should've gone to Specsavers!" :lol:
    Says someone who recently expressed a partiality to TMay.
    She is more attractive than Truss. Maggie, in her prime of course, was more attractive than either!
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    edited January 2023
    Leon said:

    From that link

    "The average wage for kindergarten teachers in Switzerland is CHF73,963 (+CHF730 compared to 2019), while the maximum is CHF112,311 (+CHF1071 compared to 2019). "

    I'll do the maths for you. In British this says:

    The average wage for kindergarten teachers in Switzerland is £65,914, while the maximum is £100,089

    Kindergarten teachers. On £100k

    Yup.
    We're woefully underpaid.
    We literally are your future.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited January 2023

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
    He hasn't mitigated anything. He has actively damaged the oil and gas industry that is so crucial to protect out energy security and prevent the impoverishment of bill payers. He has damaged economic growth, turning sharply into a recession, and that will now make his stated aim of 'balancing the books' harder, because of lower tax receipts. He has raised taxation to levels unimagined by Jeremy Corbyn. He has shown zero attempt to reverse or even mildly critique our disastrous public sector productivity. He has utterly mismanaged the pay dispute with the NHS. He has been supine in the face of civil servants, central bankers, the EU, the Green lobby, and frankly any other pisstaker with a fancy title. This is an absent Government.
    Sadly you seem to be in denial as to the damage Johnson and Truss caused and Sunak with Hunt are beginning to repair that damage even evidenced by lower mortgage offers last week than before Truss

    As for windfall taxes they are being applied across the EU and in the UK and are very much supported by the population

    ERG, Johnson and Farage supporters are yesterday's news as the country sidelines them along with Corbynites

    The political future of this country is in a one nation approach and is likely to see Starmer lead it in 2 years time and certainly bringing back Johnson is an extinction event for the conservative party and he would lose his seat anyway

    I’m not sure the technocratic managerialism of Sunak and Hunt is doing the country or the Conservative Party much good.
    They have stabilised the country financially from the disaster that was Truss
    They might have put out the worst of the fire, but there is still smoke, they are a long way from putting things right and are still playing with matches.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    Sunak will go to the wire.
    I expect January 2025.
    I expect Labour majority to be on a knife edge.
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,697
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    I guess the nearest precedent for a flailing PM calling a crisis election to try to assert their authority would be Heath in '74, and we all know how that ended.

    Question for those who know of those times- did the Grocer think the snap election would play to his advantage? And what was Atlee thinking of in 1951?

    Or May in 2017.

    The only snap elections which came off were Wilson's in 1966 and October 1974 and only because he had won the narrowest of majorities before
    May wasn't really flailing in 2017 though - she called the election off some stonkingly good local election results and some very favourable opinion polls which in places were predicting Labour down to sub-150 seats. All was looking very encouraging indeed for May in May 2017.
    It is probably the only time I can actually recall when the campaign period actually mattered and the polls (and result) moved markedly from when May called the election to the actual result.
    I still remember Jonathan Pie (bit sweary link here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTDWd9-zqzc) who posted the day of the announcement saying there was no way that the Conservatives could lose and all 650 seats must be in play for the Conservatives......
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    Sunak will go to the wire.
    I expect January 2025.
    I expect Labour majority to be on a knife edge.

    Jan 2025 would mean an election campaign during the Christmas holiday! Can't see it!
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623

    Cookie said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That flatters her.
    It's seldom commented on, because people often can't bear to concede any merits at all to politicians they dislike, but Truss has been by some way the best looking PM of my lifetime. She was quite pleasant looking.
    "Should've gone to Specsavers!" :lol:
    Says someone who recently expressed a partiality to TMay.
    She is more attractive than Truss. Maggie, in her prime of course, was more attractive than either!
    Question to which the answer is "barf".
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,572
    We'll have Malc cheering the Tories next.....

    UK ministers are willing in principle to take the unprecedented step of blocking a bill passed by Holyrood after receiving legal advice on Nicola Sturgeon’s contentious gender recognition reforms.

    Informed sources say that Rishi Sunak’s administration has the political appetite to intervene in the controversy over self-ID, opting for direct action to deny the Scottish parliament royal assent rather than referring the matter to the Supreme Court.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9864f1e4-8ea9-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=e88bea96866cc918d6fa033922a0e109
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    A question.
    Why shouldn't kindergarten teachers be on £100k?
    There's nothing more important for long term economic growth. And you want the best possible people.
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,697

    dixiedean said:

    Sunak will go to the wire.
    I expect January 2025.
    I expect Labour majority to be on a knife edge.

    Jan 2025 would mean an election campaign during the Christmas holiday! Can't see it!
    Agreed.

    Parliament would end on 16th December 2024 (Wikipedia says 17th, but hey ho). It would mean the campaign period is from 17/18th December to whenever in January 2025.
    The country would be in campaign mode on Christmas Day and Boxing Day.

    Wake up on Christmas morning to find not only has the fat lad in the red suit been, but Boris Johnson is still passed out in your living room having got there first and drunk all the sherry and still forgot to leave you a party leaflet.

    Not happening.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,306
    edited January 2023
    ...

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
    He hasn't mitigated anything. He has actively damaged the oil and gas industry that is so crucial to protect out energy security and prevent the impoverishment of bill payers. He has damaged economic growth, turning sharply into a recession, and that will now make his stated aim of 'balancing the books' harder, because of lower tax receipts. He has raised taxation to levels unimagined by Jeremy Corbyn. He has shown zero attempt to reverse or even mildly critique our disastrous public sector productivity. He has utterly mismanaged the pay dispute with the NHS. He has been supine in the face of civil servants, central bankers, the EU, the Green lobby, and frankly any other pisstaker with a fancy title. This is an absent Government.
    Sadly you seem to be in denial as to the damage Johnson and Truss caused and Sunak with Hunt are beginning to repair that damage even evidenced by lower mortgage offers last week than before Truss

    As for windfall taxes they are being applied across the EU and in the UK and are very much supported by the population

    ERG, Johnson and Farage supporters are yesterday's news as the country sidelines them along with Corbynites

    The political future of this country is in a one nation approach and is likely to see Starmer lead it in 2 years time and certainly bringing back Johnson is an extinction event for the conservative party and he would lose his seat anyway

    Sadly, and somewhat understandably, it is you who appears to be in deep denial - that a crappy PM with a miserable anti-growth agenda that you foolishly and shortsightedly urged on the party for political expediency, has utterly failed even on that paltry measure, let alone in successfully running a country. A few measly points in the polls that probably would have happened anyway, and you now acknowledge that Labour will win the next election, so what on earth was the point?
    The reason Labour are likely to win the next GE is directly the responsibility of the disasters of Johnson and Truss and Sunak is the only chance of mitigating the result
    A moment ago you acknowled that he would lose. Are you now saying he'll win?
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    dixiedean said:

    A question.
    Why shouldn't kindergarten teachers be on £100k?
    There's nothing more important for long term economic growth. And you want the best possible people.

    If essential value was related to salaries teachers and care workers would be top earners, bankers, celebs and lawyers would be on income support.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,306
    ...
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
    He hasn't mitigated anything. He has actively damaged the oil and gas industry that is so crucial to protect out energy security and prevent the impoverishment of bill payers. He has damaged economic growth, turning sharply into a recession, and that will now make his stated aim of 'balancing the books' harder, because of lower tax receipts. He has raised taxation to levels unimagined by Jeremy Corbyn. He has shown zero attempt to reverse or even mildly critique our disastrous public sector productivity. He has utterly mismanaged the pay dispute with the NHS. He has been supine in the face of civil servants, central bankers, the EU, the Green lobby, and frankly any other pisstaker with a fancy title. This is an absent Government.
    Sadly you seem to be in denial as to the damage Johnson and Truss caused and Sunak with Hunt are beginning to repair that damage even evidenced by lower mortgage offers last week than before Truss

    As for windfall taxes they are being applied across the EU and in the UK and are very much supported by the population

    ERG, Johnson and Farage supporters are yesterday's news as the country sidelines them along with Corbynites

    The political future of this country is in a one nation approach and is likely to see Starmer lead it in 2 years time and certainly bringing back Johnson is an extinction event for the conservative party and he would lose his seat anyway

    I’m not sure the technocratic managerialism of Sunak and Hunt is doing the country or the Conservative Party much good.
    They have stabilised the country financially from the disaster that was Truss
    They might have put out the worst of the fire, but there is still smoke, they are a long way from putting things right and are still playing with matches.
    They haven't put out anything. Do you want the Government to be raucous and chaotic, but generally stumbling toward growing prosperity with a few close calls on the way, or do you want to be 'effectively managed' into penury? Them's the choices.
  • Options

    ...

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
    He hasn't mitigated anything. He has actively damaged the oil and gas industry that is so crucial to protect out energy security and prevent the impoverishment of bill payers. He has damaged economic growth, turning sharply into a recession, and that will now make his stated aim of 'balancing the books' harder, because of lower tax receipts. He has raised taxation to levels unimagined by Jeremy Corbyn. He has shown zero attempt to reverse or even mildly critique our disastrous public sector productivity. He has utterly mismanaged the pay dispute with the NHS. He has been supine in the face of civil servants, central bankers, the EU, the Green lobby, and frankly any other pisstaker with a fancy title. This is an absent Government.
    Sadly you seem to be in denial as to the damage Johnson and Truss caused and Sunak with Hunt are beginning to repair that damage even evidenced by lower mortgage offers last week than before Truss

    As for windfall taxes they are being applied across the EU and in the UK and are very much supported by the population

    ERG, Johnson and Farage supporters are yesterday's news as the country sidelines them along with Corbynites

    The political future of this country is in a one nation approach and is likely to see Starmer lead it in 2 years time and certainly bringing back Johnson is an extinction event for the conservative party and he would lose his seat anyway

    Sadly, and somewhat understandably, it is you who appears to be in deep denial - that a crappy PM with a miserable anti-growth agenda that you foolishly and shortsightedly urged on the party for political expediency, has utterly failed even on that paltry measure, let alone in successfully running a country. A few measly points in the polls that probably would have happened anyway, and you now acknowledge that Labour will win the next election, so what on earth was the point?
    The reason Labour are likely to win the next GE is directly the responsibility of the disasters of Johnson and Truss and Sunak is the only chance of mitigating the result
    A moment ago you acknowled that he would lose. Are you now saying he'll win?
    Sunak will mitigate the damage that Johnson and Truss caused

    I said it is likely the conservatives will lose but there is 2 more years to go which is a long time in politics and in politics strange things happen
  • Options

    Question to which the answer is no.

    There are only four routes to a General Election at any time:

    1. The five year term for Parliament expiring.
    2. The Prime Minister calling for one (and the Monarch accepting the need)
    3. The LotO calls and wins a VoNC in the House of Commons and its clear no alternative government can be formed.
    4. Some sort of disaster resulting in such a significant number of vacancies in the House of Commons that the government/PM feels duty bound to call a General Election.

    1. Will happen with the passage of time. 28th January 2025 [1]. But that doesn't get us a GE in 2023.
    2. I really can't see this happening. Sunaks ratings are poor, his honeymoon appears over, the Conservatives are stuggling to get out of the high 20s in the polls and personally I can't see any obvious improvement between now and (say) October that would warranty an early attempt.
    3. With a government majority of about 70 still, this isn't realistically happening.
    4. This doesn't have to be a morbid event. You could get (say) 200 MPs all suddenly deciding that they wanted to run off to the circus. Depending on who these MPs are (let's say they were all Conservative), the change in the makeup of the HoC could result in Labour taking government whilst by-elections are pending and even once settled, there is a good chance that many of those might be lost anyway, hence the PM basically is forced to call a GE to head off the inevitable change in government WITHOUT a General Election.
    I'll leave others to decide the likelihood of this event, but I suspect its pretty much nil.

    Of the above, only (2) has a chance that isn't effectively zero, but 12% it isn't. More like 1%.


    [1] I don't think Sunak will do it, but am I right in thinking that if he does go to the death, it'll be the longest gap between General Elections since 1945?

    Weapons grade gibberish. As to 2, a PM can go to the country as of right. You may be misunderstanding the Lascelles principles. They don’t usually apply. As to 4, I can only assume you are drunk. I will just say that morbid means pretty much the opposite of what you think it means.
  • Options

    ...

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
    He hasn't mitigated anything. He has actively damaged the oil and gas industry that is so crucial to protect out energy security and prevent the impoverishment of bill payers. He has damaged economic growth, turning sharply into a recession, and that will now make his stated aim of 'balancing the books' harder, because of lower tax receipts. He has raised taxation to levels unimagined by Jeremy Corbyn. He has shown zero attempt to reverse or even mildly critique our disastrous public sector productivity. He has utterly mismanaged the pay dispute with the NHS. He has been supine in the face of civil servants, central bankers, the EU, the Green lobby, and frankly any other pisstaker with a fancy title. This is an absent Government.
    Sadly you seem to be in denial as to the damage Johnson and Truss caused and Sunak with Hunt are beginning to repair that damage even evidenced by lower mortgage offers last week than before Truss

    As for windfall taxes they are being applied across the EU and in the UK and are very much supported by the population

    ERG, Johnson and Farage supporters are yesterday's news as the country sidelines them along with Corbynites

    The political future of this country is in a one nation approach and is likely to see Starmer lead it in 2 years time and certainly bringing back Johnson is an extinction event for the conservative party and he would lose his seat anyway

    I’m not sure the technocratic managerialism of Sunak and Hunt is doing the country or the Conservative Party much good.
    They have stabilised the country financially from the disaster that was Truss
    They might have put out the worst of the fire, but there is still smoke, they are a long way from putting things right and are still playing with matches.
    They haven't put out anything. Do you want the Government to be raucous and chaotic, but generally stumbling toward growing prosperity with a few close calls on the way, or do you want to be 'effectively managed' into penury? Them's the choices.
    So, who is your choice to lead the conservatives then
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,049

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
    He hasn't mitigated anything. He has actively damaged the oil and gas industry that is so crucial to protect out energy security and prevent the impoverishment of bill payers. He has damaged economic growth, turning sharply into a recession, and that will now make his stated aim of 'balancing the books' harder, because of lower tax receipts. He has raised taxation to levels unimagined by Jeremy Corbyn. He has shown zero attempt to reverse or even mildly critique our disastrous public sector productivity. He has utterly mismanaged the pay dispute with the NHS. He has been supine in the face of civil servants, central bankers, the EU, the Green lobby, and frankly any other pisstaker with a fancy title. This is an absent Government.
    Sadly you seem to be in denial as to the damage Johnson and Truss caused and Sunak with Hunt are beginning to repair that damage even evidenced by lower mortgage offers last week than before Truss

    As for windfall taxes they are being applied across the EU and in the UK and are very much supported by the population

    ERG, Johnson and Farage supporters are yesterday's news as the country sidelines them along with Corbynites

    The political future of this country is in a one nation approach and is likely to see Starmer lead it in 2 years time and certainly bringing back Johnson is an extinction event for the conservative party and he would lose his seat anyway

    I’m not sure the technocratic managerialism of Sunak and Hunt is doing the country or the Conservative Party much good.
    They have stabilised the country financially from the disaster that was Truss
    They have stabilised us into a recession from Truss's disastrous period of economic growth.
    Surely bro you are fucking taking the piss. You remind me of a Corbynite blaming the Blairite Labour Party MP's for ruining his chances of being elected.

  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,306

    ...

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
    He hasn't mitigated anything. He has actively damaged the oil and gas industry that is so crucial to protect out energy security and prevent the impoverishment of bill payers. He has damaged economic growth, turning sharply into a recession, and that will now make his stated aim of 'balancing the books' harder, because of lower tax receipts. He has raised taxation to levels unimagined by Jeremy Corbyn. He has shown zero attempt to reverse or even mildly critique our disastrous public sector productivity. He has utterly mismanaged the pay dispute with the NHS. He has been supine in the face of civil servants, central bankers, the EU, the Green lobby, and frankly any other pisstaker with a fancy title. This is an absent Government.
    Sadly you seem to be in denial as to the damage Johnson and Truss caused and Sunak with Hunt are beginning to repair that damage even evidenced by lower mortgage offers last week than before Truss

    As for windfall taxes they are being applied across the EU and in the UK and are very much supported by the population

    ERG, Johnson and Farage supporters are yesterday's news as the country sidelines them along with Corbynites

    The political future of this country is in a one nation approach and is likely to see Starmer lead it in 2 years time and certainly bringing back Johnson is an extinction event for the conservative party and he would lose his seat anyway

    I’m not sure the technocratic managerialism of Sunak and Hunt is doing the country or the Conservative Party much good.
    They have stabilised the country financially from the disaster that was Truss
    They might have put out the worst of the fire, but there is still smoke, they are a long way from putting things right and are still playing with matches.
    They haven't put out anything. Do you want the Government to be raucous and chaotic, but generally stumbling toward growing prosperity with a few close calls on the way, or do you want to be 'effectively managed' into penury? Them's the choices.
    So, who is your choice to lead the conservatives then
    One of Jacob Rees Mogg's stray farts would do better than the current incumbent, so I'm easy. Nobody in his current set up obvs.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503
    dixiedean said:

    Sunak will go to the wire.
    I expect January 2025.
    I expect Labour majority to be on a knife edge.

    Autumn 2024 for me, and I agree Lab largest party, but tight for a majority.

    I can't see Sunak pulling it back much, he has very poor political antennae. A lot of regular Tory voters will back him albeit unenthusiastically.
  • Options
    Jonathan said:

    dixiedean said:

    A question.
    Why shouldn't kindergarten teachers be on £100k?
    There's nothing more important for long term economic growth. And you want the best possible people.

    If essential value was related to salaries teachers and care workers would be top earners, bankers, celebs and lawyers would be on income support.
    Why? Care workers keep value sinks up and running at a huge net cost to the economy, and teachers have pretty much zero overall effect on the future earning power of their pupils. They should be paid the minimum wage and taxed at the highest rate.
  • Options
    Tragedy averted!

    After returning from my morning coffee, I flipped on my humble (not kidding!) television . . . and nothing. Upon inspection, determined that my digital converter box - necessary for receiving broadcast signals - had given up the ghost.

    Luckily, was able to locate, reserve, pay for and pick up a replacement within a couple hours. Which I just installed, and it's working fine. Perhaps even a bit better than the old one. Cost $55 including tax. Plus dollar for bus ride to store & back.

    BTW called the store to confirm they had it in stock. But had to order it on-line AND pre-pay in order to ensure I actually got the one & only one they had. Then got yelled at for NOT registering on their fecking website, told that if I didn't, it would delay my order. I didn't - and it didn't. Sounds like a cheap-jack marketing ploy to me.

    HOWEVER, really can NOT complain. Seeing as how I am now watching "The Eagle Has Landed" on TV and with remarkably little hassle or expense considering.

    No clue why the old one when kaput. My guess is planned obsolescence - what's kept the American (and world?) economy going ever since 1955 or thereabouts.
  • Options

    ...

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
    He hasn't mitigated anything. He has actively damaged the oil and gas industry that is so crucial to protect out energy security and prevent the impoverishment of bill payers. He has damaged economic growth, turning sharply into a recession, and that will now make his stated aim of 'balancing the books' harder, because of lower tax receipts. He has raised taxation to levels unimagined by Jeremy Corbyn. He has shown zero attempt to reverse or even mildly critique our disastrous public sector productivity. He has utterly mismanaged the pay dispute with the NHS. He has been supine in the face of civil servants, central bankers, the EU, the Green lobby, and frankly any other pisstaker with a fancy title. This is an absent Government.
    Sadly you seem to be in denial as to the damage Johnson and Truss caused and Sunak with Hunt are beginning to repair that damage even evidenced by lower mortgage offers last week than before Truss

    As for windfall taxes they are being applied across the EU and in the UK and are very much supported by the population

    ERG, Johnson and Farage supporters are yesterday's news as the country sidelines them along with Corbynites

    The political future of this country is in a one nation approach and is likely to see Starmer lead it in 2 years time and certainly bringing back Johnson is an extinction event for the conservative party and he would lose his seat anyway

    I’m not sure the technocratic managerialism of Sunak and Hunt is doing the country or the Conservative Party much good.
    They have stabilised the country financially from the disaster that was Truss
    They might have put out the worst of the fire, but there is still smoke, they are a long way from putting things right and are still playing with matches.
    They haven't put out anything. Do you want the Government to be raucous and chaotic, but generally stumbling toward growing prosperity with a few close calls on the way, or do you want to be 'effectively managed' into penury? Them's the choices.
    So, who is your choice to lead the conservatives then
    One of Jacob Rees Mogg's stray farts would do better than the current incumbent, so I'm easy. Nobody in his current set up obvs.
    Well there is a mature response

  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,880
    Nigelb said:

    Town planning we might do worse than emulate.

    Whenever they tell you a change is impossible, show them Utrecht.

    An urban freeway with many lanes can become a green park with a beautiful canal. Instead of a car sewer, the water flows.

    https://twitter.com/LiorSteinberg/status/1611376172096438272

    The M8 in Glasgow. Even Boston managed something like that.

    Need to reclaim our cities from cars, lest we end up like LA (the worst city I've been too, for the majority of people who live there).
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,049

    ...

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
    He hasn't mitigated anything. He has actively damaged the oil and gas industry that is so crucial to protect out energy security and prevent the impoverishment of bill payers. He has damaged economic growth, turning sharply into a recession, and that will now make his stated aim of 'balancing the books' harder, because of lower tax receipts. He has raised taxation to levels unimagined by Jeremy Corbyn. He has shown zero attempt to reverse or even mildly critique our disastrous public sector productivity. He has utterly mismanaged the pay dispute with the NHS. He has been supine in the face of civil servants, central bankers, the EU, the Green lobby, and frankly any other pisstaker with a fancy title. This is an absent Government.
    Sadly you seem to be in denial as to the damage Johnson and Truss caused and Sunak with Hunt are beginning to repair that damage even evidenced by lower mortgage offers last week than before Truss

    As for windfall taxes they are being applied across the EU and in the UK and are very much supported by the population

    ERG, Johnson and Farage supporters are yesterday's news as the country sidelines them along with Corbynites

    The political future of this country is in a one nation approach and is likely to see Starmer lead it in 2 years time and certainly bringing back Johnson is an extinction event for the conservative party and he would lose his seat anyway

    I’m not sure the technocratic managerialism of Sunak and Hunt is doing the country or the Conservative Party much good.
    They have stabilised the country financially from the disaster that was Truss
    They might have put out the worst of the fire, but there is still smoke, they are a long way from putting things right and are still playing with matches.
    They haven't put out anything. Do you want the Government to be raucous and chaotic, but generally stumbling toward growing prosperity with a few close calls on the way, or do you want to be 'effectively managed' into penury? Them's the choices.
    So, who is your choice to lead the conservatives then
    One of Jacob Rees Mogg's stray farts would do better than the current incumbent, so I'm easy. Nobody in his current set up obvs.
    This is the problem with ideologues who place purity above anything else. You by nature are pragmatically right, and I, left. We are much closer politically than the extremes of our positions.


  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,049
    My comment was aimed at BigG obviously...not to the ideologically bonkers LuckyGuy
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,697

    Question to which the answer is no.

    There are only four routes to a General Election at any time:

    1. The five year term for Parliament expiring.
    2. The Prime Minister calling for one (and the Monarch accepting the need)
    3. The LotO calls and wins a VoNC in the House of Commons and its clear no alternative government can be formed.
    4. Some sort of disaster resulting in such a significant number of vacancies in the House of Commons that the government/PM feels duty bound to call a General Election.

    1. Will happen with the passage of time. 28th January 2025 [1]. But that doesn't get us a GE in 2023.
    2. I really can't see this happening. Sunaks ratings are poor, his honeymoon appears over, the Conservatives are stuggling to get out of the high 20s in the polls and personally I can't see any obvious improvement between now and (say) October that would warranty an early attempt.
    3. With a government majority of about 70 still, this isn't realistically happening.
    4. This doesn't have to be a morbid event. You could get (say) 200 MPs all suddenly deciding that they wanted to run off to the circus. Depending on who these MPs are (let's say they were all Conservative), the change in the makeup of the HoC could result in Labour taking government whilst by-elections are pending and even once settled, there is a good chance that many of those might be lost anyway, hence the PM basically is forced to call a GE to head off the inevitable change in government WITHOUT a General Election.
    I'll leave others to decide the likelihood of this event, but I suspect its pretty much nil.

    Of the above, only (2) has a chance that isn't effectively zero, but 12% it isn't. More like 1%.


    [1] I don't think Sunak will do it, but am I right in thinking that if he does go to the death, it'll be the longest gap between General Elections since 1945?

    Weapons grade gibberish. As to 2, a PM can go to the country as of right. You may be misunderstanding the Lascelles principles. They don’t usually apply. As to 4, I can only assume you are drunk. I will just say that morbid means pretty much the opposite of what you think it means.
    I don't think you've understood anything of what I've written.
    I wasn't saying any of these are likely. I was simply pointing out how you get to a General Election, and then saying how it could happen. None of them are likely to get to a 2023 GE, which is the original header.
    As to (2), no, I don't think I've misunderstood the Lascelles principles. The Monarch *can* refuse if he thinks the PM has gone off the deep end, and especially if the party makes it clear the PM has gone rogue.
    As to (4), I know what morbid means. I'm just pointing out that if the House of Commons LOST 200 MPs, the PM might be forced to call a GE. To avoid any morbid connections, I proposed that the loss of those MPs could be due to them all resigning.... rather than them all dying.
    As to being drunk, well no......

    Not the best start here really.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    dixiedean said:

    A question.
    Why shouldn't kindergarten teachers be on £100k?
    There's nothing more important for long term economic growth. And you want the best possible people.

    If essential value was related to salaries teachers and care workers would be top earners, bankers, celebs and lawyers would be on income support.
    Why? Care workers keep value sinks up and running at a huge net cost to the economy, and teachers have pretty much zero overall effect on the future earning power of their pupils. They should be paid the minimum wage and taxed at the highest rate.
    Why do people waste their lives being wankers like this fellow? It’s a real puzzle and a depressing aspect of the human condition.
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,478
    dixiedean - You may find this of interest: "The 1966 report, titled Equality of Educational Opportunity (otherwise known as the "Coleman Report"), fueled debates about "school effects" that are still relevant today.[11] The report is commonly presented as evidence that school funding has little effect on student achievement, a key finding of the report and subsequent research.[12][13][1] It was found as for physical facilities, formal curricula, and other measurable criteria, there was little difference between black and white schools. Also, a significant gap in the achievement scores between black and white children already existed in the first grade. Despite the similar conditions of black and white schools, the gap became even wider by the end of elementary school. The only consistent variable explaining the differences in score within each racial group or ethnic group was the educational and economic attainment of the parents.[14] Therefore, student background and socioeconomic status were found to be more important in determining educational outcomes of a student. Specifically, the key factors were the attitudes toward education of parents and caregivers at home and peers at school. Differences in the quality of schools and teachers did have a small impact on student outcomes."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Samuel_Coleman#Coleman_Report

    I should add that Coleman's results were controversial at the time, and have been controversial ever since. And that there were gains in educational achievement since then, in all major groups, until about 2008:
    https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/highlights/ltt/2022/

    FWIW, the influx of East Asian, and, more recently, South Asian, families into this area has resulted in increases in private tutoring companies, such as Montessori, Kumon, and Mathnasium.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,306
    tyson said:

    ...

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
    He hasn't mitigated anything. He has actively damaged the oil and gas industry that is so crucial to protect out energy security and prevent the impoverishment of bill payers. He has damaged economic growth, turning sharply into a recession, and that will now make his stated aim of 'balancing the books' harder, because of lower tax receipts. He has raised taxation to levels unimagined by Jeremy Corbyn. He has shown zero attempt to reverse or even mildly critique our disastrous public sector productivity. He has utterly mismanaged the pay dispute with the NHS. He has been supine in the face of civil servants, central bankers, the EU, the Green lobby, and frankly any other pisstaker with a fancy title. This is an absent Government.
    Sadly you seem to be in denial as to the damage Johnson and Truss caused and Sunak with Hunt are beginning to repair that damage even evidenced by lower mortgage offers last week than before Truss

    As for windfall taxes they are being applied across the EU and in the UK and are very much supported by the population

    ERG, Johnson and Farage supporters are yesterday's news as the country sidelines them along with Corbynites

    The political future of this country is in a one nation approach and is likely to see Starmer lead it in 2 years time and certainly bringing back Johnson is an extinction event for the conservative party and he would lose his seat anyway

    I’m not sure the technocratic managerialism of Sunak and Hunt is doing the country or the Conservative Party much good.
    They have stabilised the country financially from the disaster that was Truss
    They might have put out the worst of the fire, but there is still smoke, they are a long way from putting things right and are still playing with matches.
    They haven't put out anything. Do you want the Government to be raucous and chaotic, but generally stumbling toward growing prosperity with a few close calls on the way, or do you want to be 'effectively managed' into penury? Them's the choices.
    So, who is your choice to lead the conservatives then
    One of Jacob Rees Mogg's stray farts would do better than the current incumbent, so I'm easy. Nobody in his current set up obvs.
    This is the problem with ideologues who place purity above anything else. You by nature are pragmatically right, and I, left. We are much closer politically than the extremes of our positions.

    I believe that's true. I'd back a Labour government if I thought that they would help. In fact although an epic Toryboy already, I wasn't immune to the optimism of Blair coming to power.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,306
    tyson said:

    My comment was aimed at BigG obviously...not to the ideologically bonkers LuckyGuy

    :lol:

    Well I have responded in good faith.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,445
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    dixiedean said:

    A question.
    Why shouldn't kindergarten teachers be on £100k?
    There's nothing more important for long term economic growth. And you want the best possible people.

    If essential value was related to salaries teachers and care workers would be top earners, bankers, celebs and lawyers would be on income support.
    Why? Care workers keep value sinks up and running at a huge net cost to the economy, and teachers have pretty much zero overall effect on the future earning power of their pupils. They should be paid the minimum wage and taxed at the highest rate.
    Why do people waste their lives being wankers like this fellow? It’s a real puzzle and a depressing aspect of the human condition.
    It’s some sort of trollbot programmed as part of a nursery school coding bee

  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,306

    ...

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
    He hasn't mitigated anything. He has actively damaged the oil and gas industry that is so crucial to protect out energy security and prevent the impoverishment of bill payers. He has damaged economic growth, turning sharply into a recession, and that will now make his stated aim of 'balancing the books' harder, because of lower tax receipts. He has raised taxation to levels unimagined by Jeremy Corbyn. He has shown zero attempt to reverse or even mildly critique our disastrous public sector productivity. He has utterly mismanaged the pay dispute with the NHS. He has been supine in the face of civil servants, central bankers, the EU, the Green lobby, and frankly any other pisstaker with a fancy title. This is an absent Government.
    Sadly you seem to be in denial as to the damage Johnson and Truss caused and Sunak with Hunt are beginning to repair that damage even evidenced by lower mortgage offers last week than before Truss

    As for windfall taxes they are being applied across the EU and in the UK and are very much supported by the population

    ERG, Johnson and Farage supporters are yesterday's news as the country sidelines them along with Corbynites

    The political future of this country is in a one nation approach and is likely to see Starmer lead it in 2 years time and certainly bringing back Johnson is an extinction event for the conservative party and he would lose his seat anyway

    I’m not sure the technocratic managerialism of Sunak and Hunt is doing the country or the Conservative Party much good.
    They have stabilised the country financially from the disaster that was Truss
    They might have put out the worst of the fire, but there is still smoke, they are a long way from putting things right and are still playing with matches.
    They haven't put out anything. Do you want the Government to be raucous and chaotic, but generally stumbling toward growing prosperity with a few close calls on the way, or do you want to be 'effectively managed' into penury? Them's the choices.
    So, who is your choice to lead the conservatives then
    One of Jacob Rees Mogg's stray farts would do better than the current incumbent, so I'm easy. Nobody in his current set up obvs.
    Well there is a mature response

    I don't hate anyone, living or dead. That includes Rishi Sunak. But I do deplore this administration, because I believe they are, by negligence or design, actively working to impoverish and enfeeble our country. If that's true, what is personality? What is presentation? Literally any alternative would do, except someone continuing on the same path.

  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,445
    Leon said:

    For comparison a kindy teacher in the UK makes on average £30k

    https://nationalcareers.service.gov.uk/job-profiles/early-years-teacher

    The same person in Switzerland makes £70-100k

    Swiss people earn about 2.5-3 times what British people earn

    Yes but isn't everything more expensive in Switzerland?
  • Options
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    dixiedean said:

    A question.
    Why shouldn't kindergarten teachers be on £100k?
    There's nothing more important for long term economic growth. And you want the best possible people.

    If essential value was related to salaries teachers and care workers would be top earners, bankers, celebs and lawyers would be on income support.
    Why? Care workers keep value sinks up and running at a huge net cost to the economy, and teachers have pretty much zero overall effect on the future earning power of their pupils. They should be paid the minimum wage and taxed at the highest rate.
    Why do people waste their lives being wankers like this fellow? It’s a real puzzle and a depressing aspect of the human condition.
    Why do you waste your and everyone else's time posting twee rebarbative Clap for Carers type thought free drivel about how lovely, lovely people who do lovely things are? Lovely thought, but intellectually about a million miles off the pace, surely?
  • Options
    WillGWillG Posts: 2,063
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    dixiedean said:

    A question.
    Why shouldn't kindergarten teachers be on £100k?
    There's nothing more important for long term economic growth. And you want the best possible people.

    If essential value was related to salaries teachers and care workers would be top earners, bankers, celebs and lawyers would be on income support.
    Why? Care workers keep value sinks up and running at a huge net cost to the economy, and teachers have pretty much zero overall effect on the future earning power of their pupils. They should be paid the minimum wage and taxed at the highest rate.
    Why do people waste their lives being wankers like this fellow? It’s a real puzzle and a depressing aspect of the human condition.
    There is a deep rooted human need for stimulation. In controlled experiments, people will actually be willing to inflict physical pain on themselves rather than be bored. Some people live unfulfilling lives with dead end jobs and no social lives. To get stimulation they troll on the internet.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    dixiedean said:

    A question.
    Why shouldn't kindergarten teachers be on £100k?
    There's nothing more important for long term economic growth. And you want the best possible people.

    If essential value was related to salaries teachers and care workers would be top earners, bankers, celebs and lawyers would be on income support.
    Why? Care workers keep value sinks up and running at a huge net cost to the economy, and teachers have pretty much zero overall effect on the future earning power of their pupils. They should be paid the minimum wage and taxed at the highest rate.
    Why do people waste their lives being wankers like this fellow? It’s a real puzzle and a depressing aspect of the human condition.
    Why do you waste your and everyone else's time posting twee rebarbative Clap for Carers type thought free drivel about how lovely, lovely people who do lovely things are? Lovely thought, but intellectually about a million miles off the pace, surely?
    I get the impression that you actually think you’re being clever. Remarkable.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,306

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    dixiedean said:

    A question.
    Why shouldn't kindergarten teachers be on £100k?
    There's nothing more important for long term economic growth. And you want the best possible people.

    If essential value was related to salaries teachers and care workers would be top earners, bankers, celebs and lawyers would be on income support.
    Why? Care workers keep value sinks up and running at a huge net cost to the economy, and teachers have pretty much zero overall effect on the future earning power of their pupils. They should be paid the minimum wage and taxed at the highest rate.
    Why do people waste their lives being wankers like this fellow? It’s a real puzzle and a depressing aspect of the human condition.
    It’s some sort of trollbot programmed as part of a nursery school coding bee

    Interesting how Jonathan said 'fellow' without knowing the poster's gender, did he think this poster sounded MALEZ-ISH.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,049

    tyson said:

    My comment was aimed at BigG obviously...not to the ideologically bonkers LuckyGuy

    :lol:

    Well I have responded in good faith.
    Genuinely sorry for the misleading post.

    You do though refer to yourself as a Toryboy.

    I have some Corbynite close friends who hate Starmer with a vengeance, and still haven't forgotten how Labour MP's tried to oust him.

    People cannot deny their political views. You clearly do not take to Sunak and Hunt. Your DNA is Neo-Liberalism..I get that. And you think the pragmatic centralism of Sunak is only contributing to the UK's decline.

  • Options
    WillGWillG Posts: 2,063
    In defence of socially inept, career failure trolls, they are still not quite as pathetic as paid Russian trolls, who get a few rubles a month to defend a midget who has embezzled billions and ruined their country.
  • Options
    WillG said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    dixiedean said:

    A question.
    Why shouldn't kindergarten teachers be on £100k?
    There's nothing more important for long term economic growth. And you want the best possible people.

    If essential value was related to salaries teachers and care workers would be top earners, bankers, celebs and lawyers would be on income support.
    Why? Care workers keep value sinks up and running at a huge net cost to the economy, and teachers have pretty much zero overall effect on the future earning power of their pupils. They should be paid the minimum wage and taxed at the highest rate.
    Why do people waste their lives being wankers like this fellow? It’s a real puzzle and a depressing aspect of the human condition.
    There is a deep rooted human need for stimulation. In controlled experiments, people will actually be willing to inflict physical pain on themselves rather than be bored. Some people live unfulfilling lives with dead end jobs and no social lives. To get stimulation they troll on the internet.
    "In controlled experiments..." without citations, before we even get on to the replication crisis in all these sociology type studies, is a red flag. You probably take the milgram experiment seriously.
  • Options
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    dixiedean said:

    A question.
    Why shouldn't kindergarten teachers be on £100k?
    There's nothing more important for long term economic growth. And you want the best possible people.

    If essential value was related to salaries teachers and care workers would be top earners, bankers, celebs and lawyers would be on income support.
    Why? Care workers keep value sinks up and running at a huge net cost to the economy, and teachers have pretty much zero overall effect on the future earning power of their pupils. They should be paid the minimum wage and taxed at the highest rate.
    Why do people waste their lives being wankers like this fellow? It’s a real puzzle and a depressing aspect of the human condition.
    Why do you waste your and everyone else's time posting twee rebarbative Clap for Carers type thought free drivel about how lovely, lovely people who do lovely things are? Lovely thought, but intellectually about a million miles off the pace, surely?
    I get the impression that you actually think you’re being clever. Remarkable.
    Awwwww.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,306
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    My comment was aimed at BigG obviously...not to the ideologically bonkers LuckyGuy

    :lol:

    Well I have responded in good faith.
    Genuinely sorry for the misleading post.

    You do though refer to yourself as a Toryboy.

    I have some Corbynite close friends who hate Starmer with a vengeance, and still haven't forgotten how Labour MP's tried to oust him.

    People cannot deny their political views. You clearly do not take to Sunak and Hunt. Your DNA is Neo-Liberalism..I get that. And you think the pragmatic centralism of Sunak is only contributing to the UK's decline.

    No, not really, I don't object to inoffensive Government, or pragmatism per se. And I'm not beholden to a neo-Liberal agenda, though I am keen on a people-empowerment agenda.

    My issue with Sunak is that I perceive the UK (as a people) to be threatened on multiple fronts, by forces both internal and external. And Sunak will not defend us, rather he is a cooperative part of that process.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,940
    edited January 2023

    dixiedean - You may find this of interest: "The 1966 report, titled Equality of Educational Opportunity (otherwise known as the "Coleman Report"), fueled debates about "school effects" that are still relevant today.[11] The report is commonly presented as evidence that school funding has little effect on student achievement, a key finding of the report and subsequent research.[12][13][1] It was found as for physical facilities, formal curricula, and other measurable criteria, there was little difference between black and white schools. Also, a significant gap in the achievement scores between black and white children already existed in the first grade. Despite the similar conditions of black and white schools, the gap became even wider by the end of elementary school. The only consistent variable explaining the differences in score within each racial group or ethnic group was the educational and economic attainment of the parents.[14] Therefore, student background and socioeconomic status were found to be more important in determining educational outcomes of a student. Specifically, the key factors were the attitudes toward education of parents and caregivers at home and peers at school. Differences in the quality of schools and teachers did have a small impact on student outcomes."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Samuel_Coleman#Coleman_Report

    I should add that Coleman's results were controversial at the time, and have been controversial ever since. And that there were gains in educational achievement since then, in all major groups, until about 2008:
    https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/highlights/ltt/2022/

    FWIW, the influx of East Asian, and, more recently, South Asian, families into this area has resulted in increases in private tutoring companies, such as Montessori, Kumon, and Mathnasium.

    Am well aware of the Coleman Report. Several other studies around the World have found similar. Tend to agree that there is nothing more important than parental attitude.
    Making teaching a semi minimum wage profession does nothing whatsoever to help heal parental attitudes.
    The contempt in which educators are held fosters this toxic attitude.
    Make teaching a profession folk aspire to. Even to 100k. Not a Tiktiok influencer or banker.
    Notable that amongst East Asians there is no job more respected. At all.
    Strangers bowed at me. Here I get withering pity.
    Maybe that is part of it?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Rishi Sunak looks by far the deadliest opponent.

    Maybe he should do PMQs in a 17th/21st lancers uniform.

    After all, he is in the position of delivering either death or glory for his party.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,152
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean - You may find this of interest: "The 1966 report, titled Equality of Educational Opportunity (otherwise known as the "Coleman Report"), fueled debates about "school effects" that are still relevant today.[11] The report is commonly presented as evidence that school funding has little effect on student achievement, a key finding of the report and subsequent research.[12][13][1] It was found as for physical facilities, formal curricula, and other measurable criteria, there was little difference between black and white schools. Also, a significant gap in the achievement scores between black and white children already existed in the first grade. Despite the similar conditions of black and white schools, the gap became even wider by the end of elementary school. The only consistent variable explaining the differences in score within each racial group or ethnic group was the educational and economic attainment of the parents.[14] Therefore, student background and socioeconomic status were found to be more important in determining educational outcomes of a student. Specifically, the key factors were the attitudes toward education of parents and caregivers at home and peers at school. Differences in the quality of schools and teachers did have a small impact on student outcomes."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Samuel_Coleman#Coleman_Report

    I should add that Coleman's results were controversial at the time, and have been controversial ever since. And that there were gains in educational achievement since then, in all major groups, until about 2008:
    https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/highlights/ltt/2022/

    FWIW, the influx of East Asian, and, more recently, South Asian, families into this area has resulted in increases in private tutoring companies, such as Montessori, Kumon, and Mathnasium.

    Am well aware of the Coleman Report. Several other studies around the World have found similar. Tend to agree that there is nothing more important than parental attitude.
    Making teaching a semi minimum wage profession does nothing whatsoever to help heal parental attitudes.
    The contempt in which educators are held fosters this toxic attitude.
    Make teaching a profession folk aspire to. Even to 100k. Not a Tiktiok influencer or banker.
    Notable that amongst East Asians there is no job more respected. At all.
    Strangers bowed at me. Here I get withering pity.
    Maybe that is part of it?
    For you and all teachers - https://barry-walsh.co.uk/light-of-knowledge/
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    Why do care workers get paid so little? Is it lack of demand for these jobs?

    I can’t help but think train drivers would be on minimum wage if it weren’t for unions. Although then again pilots get paid well and they’re not going on strike.

    Somebody please educate me
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,975
    tyson said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Allies of Boris Johnson reported to be proposing a party confidence vote in the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. “We have a lot of levers we could pull,” a source said. “We could have a confirmatory vote in Rishi as leader.” @ShippersUnbound @thetimes

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/57e3f04e-8ead-11ed-a321-77184a1c82e4?shareToken=b441b9c17b84eb63482f173164e1dca0

    He'd be better. And he's a priapic scandal-ridden lardbucket, but he'd be better.
    Sunak is the only conservative capable of mitigating the disaster that was Johnson and Truss
    He hasn't mitigated anything. He has actively damaged the oil and gas industry that is so crucial to protect out energy security and prevent the impoverishment of bill payers. He has damaged economic growth, turning sharply into a recession, and that will now make his stated aim of 'balancing the books' harder, because of lower tax receipts. He has raised taxation to levels unimagined by Jeremy Corbyn. He has shown zero attempt to reverse or even mildly critique our disastrous public sector productivity. He has utterly mismanaged the pay dispute with the NHS. He has been supine in the face of civil servants, central bankers, the EU, the Green lobby, and frankly any other pisstaker with a fancy title. This is an absent Government.
    Sadly you seem to be in denial as to the damage Johnson and Truss caused and Sunak with Hunt are beginning to repair that damage even evidenced by lower mortgage offers last week than before Truss

    As for windfall taxes they are being applied across the EU and in the UK and are very much supported by the population

    ERG, Johnson and Farage supporters are yesterday's news as the country sidelines them along with Corbynites

    The political future of this country is in a one nation approach and is likely to see Starmer lead it in 2 years time and certainly bringing back Johnson is an extinction event for the conservative party and he would lose his seat anyway

    I’m not sure the technocratic managerialism of Sunak and Hunt is doing the country or the Conservative Party much good.
    They have stabilised the country financially from the disaster that was Truss
    They have stabilised us into a recession from Truss's disastrous period of economic growth.
    Surely bro you are fucking taking the piss. You remind me of a Corbynite blaming the Blairite Labour Party MP's for ruining his chances of being elected.

    Don’t forget that @Putinguy doesn’t like stability and good order
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624

    Scott_xP said:
    Liz Truss can smile?
    She actually has a quite appealingly goofy grin.
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