politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft’s national poll joins YouGov in having the To
Comments
-
The thing that annoyed me about Cameron's tax threshold announcement for 40% was that he gave a number of examples of people who were now paying this, arguing that it was ridiculous. The list, if I remember rightly, was entirely public sector workers along the lines of senior teachers, nurses, police inspectors. Wait a minute - the government pays these people - so they must have known all along that they would be dragged into the 40 band.Ishmael_X said:
Kinnock's mistake, or one of them, in 1992 was to say that anyone on 25k plus was fair game for tax rises. 25k then is pretty much 42k now. I thought it was pb Tories who never learn.chestnut said:Teachers are now "the rich". People earning over £42,000 are now the "15%" or "the wealthy"
That kind of rhetoric will drive some public sector workers into the arms of the Tories.0 -
30% is catastrophic for Ed. No increase from Brown in 2010.0
-
So yougov and Ashcroft both showing a bounce for the Tories and a Tory lead, but populus yet to follow. The fact that the Tories now have polls showing them ahead will nonetheless still be encouraging for them, remember 1992 when only Gallup had the Tories narrowly ahead, the others showed Kinnock's Labour leading. In the end the Tories won by 7%0
-
Westmoreland will not be going anywhere I dont thinkPaul_Mid_Beds said:Baxtering that poll gives Labour 16 short of Majority
Add 0.5% to tories at Labours expense (32.5/29.5) gives Tories 23 short of majority. (21 incl SF)
Add 1% to tories at Labours expense (33/29) gives Tories 17 short of majority. (15 incl SF)
Add 1.5 to tories at Labours expense (33.5/28.5) gives Tories 9 short of majority (7 incl SF) which means a supply and confidence with DUPs 8-10 MPs would see them home.
Add 2.0 to tories at Labours expense (34/28) gives Tories majority of 6 (8 incl SF)
This really is the tipping point in that tiny changes have disproportionate effects. Plus lots of majorities will be small so local campaigns will count.
If things stay as they are it looks to me that the biggest impact on the next election result will be:
* Incumbency factor for sitting Libdem MPs pitted against Tory challengers
* To what extent anti tory tactical voting of 2010 voters in LD/Tory marginals will unwind from LD to LAB/Green/UKIP.
With it looking as if Labours challenge is faltering, and similarly, little evidence of Tories eating into 2010 Lab held seats, I reckon the 2015 election will be won or lost in places like Somerton and Frome, Mid Dorset, Westmoreland and West Aberdeen, not the midland Labour/Tory marginals that are usually cited as kingmaker seats and may well see little movement in 2015.0 -
Spanish nurse has ebola, it seems:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-295149200 -
Given the national polling situation I think TSE was right to lead on Ashcroft
What we've seen is a trend of declining 2010 LD support for LAB which for years I've argued is a firewall. That we might be seeing signs of that crumble is significant.
I return from Spain on Thursday for the by-elections.0 -
The Greens got 4% in Bristol West last time. If the LDs were to lose it, it would be to LabOblitusSumMe said:
It's plausible, though I wouldn't say likely, that the Greens will gain Norwich South and Bristol West on a national vote share of, say, 2%.Paul_Mid_Beds said:The worst news for the liberals is surely that 7% for the greens, mostly I suspect 2010 libdems
I doubt 7% will win the greens a single seat but it would hand a swathe of LD seats to the tories.
Looks like the Beard and Sandal brigade have defected to the other beardy brigade.
In 2010, for example, the Green share of the national vote was down a bit, even though they stood in more than one hundred extra seats, and they made great progress by winning Brighton Pavillion.0 -
Could the Tories cut and run? Forget all this five year fixed term nonsense?AndyJS said:30% is catastrophic for Ed. No increase from Brown in 2010.
0 -
Geopolitics to the fore again. 2014 is not boring that's for sure.Morris_Dancer said:Spanish nurse has ebola, it seems:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-295149200 -
You'd have to have some kind of management role to get that (though there are more managers than 'just' teachers these days...) May go down well with said managers but they're seen as a blight by teachers. If anything, I imagine front line public sector workers are further turned off by politicians (Cameron, Gove and a couple of others during conference) blazoning teachers, nurses etc as a shield for tax cuts.chestnut said:Teachers are now "the rich". People earning over £42,000 are now the "15%" or "the wealthy"
That kind of rhetoric will drive some public sector workers into the arms of the Tories.0 -
I agree that it's incredibly unlikely that the Greens will win either seat but particularly that the chances of success or otherwise are largely unrelated to the overall national vote share they get.OblitusSumMe said:
It's plausible, though I wouldn't say likely, that the Greens will gain Norwich South and Bristol West on a national vote share of, say, 2%.Paul_Mid_Beds said:The worst news for the liberals is surely that 7% for the greens, mostly I suspect 2010 libdems
I doubt 7% will win the greens a single seat but it would hand a swathe of LD seats to the tories.
Looks like the Beard and Sandal brigade have defected to the other beardy brigade.0 -
Mr. T, d'you mean Coalition as in UK Government, or as in various nations trying to stop ISIS?0
-
To be fair, arguing against myself a little, it's not brilliant for Dave either. Didn't even Michael Howard manage better than this in 2005?AndyJS said:30% is catastrophic for Ed. No increase from Brown in 2010.
0 -
Its the opinion polls consistently showing Libs on 6-8% not me. No need to shoot the messenger.MarkSenior said:
Hardly , the vote share obtained by the Greens in all local council by elextions from July to date is just 4% , the lib Dem figure is 17% and UKIP 16%Paul_Mid_Beds said:The worst news for the liberals is surely that 7% for the greens, mostly I suspect 2010 libdems
I doubt 7% will win the greens a single seat but it would hand a swathe of LD seats to the tories.
Looks like the Beard and Sandal brigade have defected to the other beardy brigade.
Ashcroft today LD=7%
Populus today LD=8%
Yougov yesterday LD= 7%
PB Polling Average Sept 2014 LD = 7.6%0 -
Show me one.Scott_P said:@MSmithsonPB: If the CON leads continue & there further bad news for LAB about fewer 2010 LD switchers then I wonder whether EdM could be in trouble
We have had lots of threads saying both of these things are impossible...0 -
Yes, combined support for the main two parties is dropping at every election. People are more prepared to vote for their first choice party whatever the consequences.Casino_Royale said:
To be fair, arguing against myself a little, it's not brilliant for Dave either. Didn't even Michael Howard manage better than this in 2005?AndyJS said:30% is catastrophic for Ed. No increase from Brown in 2010.
0 -
It seems Labour might be suffering some seepage to the Greens too. Could this not continue and be a problem?MikeSmithson said:Given the national polling situation I think TSE was right to lead on Ashcroft
What we've seen is a trend of declining 2010 LD support for LAB which for years I've argued is a firewall. That we might be seeing signs of that crumble is significant.
I return from Spain on Thursday for the by-elections.
Not sure they're putting up candidates in the key marginals though.0 -
Indeed, Mr. Borough, I have not seen any acknowledgement from the Conservatives that they have been more than happy to use fiscal drag to get another 1 million people into the Higher Rate tax band over he last four years. Only a promise to unwind some of that fiscal drag at some indeterminate date after 2018 assuming things go well elsewhere.rottenborough said:
The thing that annoyed me about Cameron's tax threshold announcement for 40% was that he gave a number of examples of people who were now paying this, arguing that it was ridiculous. The list, if I remember rightly, was entirely public sector workers along the lines of senior teachers, nurses, police inspectors. Wait a minute - the government pays these people - so they must have known all along that they would be dragged into the 40 band.Ishmael_X said:
Kinnock's mistake, or one of them, in 1992 was to say that anyone on 25k plus was fair game for tax rises. 25k then is pretty much 42k now. I thought it was pb Tories who never learn.chestnut said:Teachers are now "the rich". People earning over £42,000 are now the "15%" or "the wealthy"
That kind of rhetoric will drive some public sector workers into the arms of the Tories.
I suppose that is at least better than Clegg's idea that people now paying 40% should be taxed more. 45% tax starting at 42K perhaps.0 -
It's a long time since I've heard them being called 'the liberals'. Norman Fowler used to do it with a particular snarl on his lip and I thought it disrespectful then, how much more so now. Like them or loathe them, at least have the decency to call them the Liberal Democrats.Paul_Mid_Beds said:The worst news for the liberals is surely that 7% for the greens, mostly I suspect 2010 libdems
...
Looks like the Beard and Sandal brigade have defected to the other beardy brigade.
You could well be right. I think the Conservatives would have pulled ahead anyway but he seems to have spilled an accelerator agent into the mix.MarkHopkins said:I guess Kinnock's "we're alright" speech will be joined by Miliband's "I forgot" one, as a key turning point in an election.
0 -
Bombs are apparently falling on the Turkish side of the border. Pity Turkish forces don't take action.SeanT said:BBC now reporting that Kobane is falling. Calamitous for the Coalition. Huge boost for ISIS.
Terrifying for people there.
@jenanmoussa 9m9 minutes ago
Everyone in #kobane is in danger. YPG says 1000s of civilian still inside. ISIS is in #kobane now. Fears that all will be killed. @akhbar0 -
Reasonably confident of standing in 75% of the seats this time so that will be most of the key marginals. There's two ways of looking at it. Yes, more people voting Green in more constituencies will hurt Labour (and Lib Dems) compared to 2010 but 7% is a fair amount for Labour and Lib Dems to squeeze in marginals where they wont have a chance / wont stand between polls as they now stand and next May.Casino_Royale said:?
Not sure they're putting up candidates in the key marginals though.
0 -
3 of the last 5 polls have put the Tories ahead:
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Poll_results0 -
The Times is reporting another 400 child sex abuse victims in Gt Manchester reported in ten months to January - with 242 suspects... Ann Coffey Lab Stockport is preparing a report on Manchester abuse for end of October.0
-
Today's Populus poll has the Greens gaining more voters from 2010 Conservatives "Vote Blue, Go Green", than from 2010 Labour, but the Ashcroft shows a wider margin the other way. A lot more new Greens from 2010 Lib Dems - possibly people who said they would vote Labour earlier in the Parliament, but impossible to tell.Casino_Royale said:
It seems Labour might be suffering some seepage to the Greens too. Could this not continue and be a problem?MikeSmithson said:Given the national polling situation I think TSE was right to lead on Ashcroft
What we've seen is a trend of declining 2010 LD support for LAB which for years I've argued is a firewall. That we might be seeing signs of that crumble is significant.
I return from Spain on Thursday for the by-elections.
Not sure they're putting up candidates in the key marginals though.
Heard this morning that the Greens are hoping to stand in three-quarters of the seats, so that would still leave ~160 uncontested (and probably save £80k on lost deposits).0 -
I expect they will, and the Turkish armed forces are a rather more serious outfit than ISIS have faced so far. Poking the Turks may not be a smart strategic move for ISIS.AndyJS said:
Bombs are apparently falling on the Turkish side of the border. Pity Turkish forces don't take action.SeanT said:BBC now reporting that Kobane is falling. Calamitous for the Coalition. Huge boost for ISIS.
Terrifying for people there.
@jenanmoussa 9m9 minutes ago
Everyone in #kobane is in danger. YPG says 1000s of civilian still inside. ISIS is in #kobane now. Fears that all will be killed. @akhbar0 -
Neil said:
Reasonably confident of standing in 75% of the seats this time so that will be most of the key marginals. There's two ways of looking at it. Yes, more people voting Green in more constituencies will hurt Labour (and Lib Dems) compared to 2010 but 7% is a fair amount for Labour and Lib Dems to squeeze in marginals where they wont have a chance / wont stand between polls as they now stand and next May.Casino_Royale said:?
Not sure they're putting up candidates in the key marginals though.
Thanks Neil. Didn't know that.Neil said:
Reasonably confident of standing in 75% of the seats this time so that will be most of the key marginals. There's two ways of looking at it. Yes, more people voting Green in more constituencies will hurt Labour (and Lib Dems) compared to 2010 but 7% is a fair amount for Labour and Lib Dems to squeeze in marginals where they wont have a chance / wont stand between polls as they now stand and next May.Casino_Royale said:?
Not sure they're putting up candidates in the key marginals though.
0 -
That's crossover - official.AndyJS said:3 of the last 5 polls have put the Tories ahead:
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Poll_results0 -
I think you're a bit out of date with that one Plato - Or did Pork did indeed call some things correct.
I check my f-ing privilege every f-ing second nowadays - thank you world.0 -
Agreed. I expect some returners by Election Day though, particularly from Ukip.AndyJS said:
Yes, combined support for the main two parties is dropping at every election. People are more prepared to vote for their first choice party whatever the consequences.Casino_Royale said:
To be fair, arguing against myself a little, it's not brilliant for Dave either. Didn't even Michael Howard manage better than this in 2005?AndyJS said:30% is catastrophic for Ed. No increase from Brown in 2010.
0 -
What was the average % for the Greens in seats they contested in 2010?
If they stand in 450 seats, and poll an average of 5% how will this affect the seat calculations? Where do they stand? Urban seats with trendy students I guess. Also comfy middle class areas? They should hurt Labour, and especially, the LDs but only where these two are in competition with the Tories.0 -
By Hook or by crook, almost a hundred Turkish hostages are free after being captured and held by ISIS
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/dozens-of-turkish-isis-hostages-freed-after-being-seized-by-islamic-state-militants-in-iraq-9745792.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkey-accused-of-handing-british-jihadists-shabazz-suleman-and-hisham-folkard-back-to-isis-in-return-for-hostages-9776335.html0 -
OT Do you have any intentions of standing for Chair of Wealden Cons? I see the current chappy is standing down.Richard_Nabavi said:
I expect they will, and the Turkish armed forces are a rather more serious outfit than ISIS have faced so far. Poking the Turks may not be a smart strategic move for ISIS.AndyJS said:
Bombs are apparently falling on the Turkish side of the border. Pity Turkish forces don't take action.SeanT said:BBC now reporting that Kobane is falling. Calamitous for the Coalition. Huge boost for ISIS.
Terrifying for people there.
@jenanmoussa 9m9 minutes ago
Everyone in #kobane is in danger. YPG says 1000s of civilian still inside. ISIS is in #kobane now. Fears that all will be killed. @akhbar0 -
Yay!
Welcome back Isam.0 -
It is a switch to the Greens. It follows conference speech on tough choices. Red Liberals have now become Green Liberals.Casino_Royale said:
It seems Labour might be suffering some seepage to the Greens too. Could this not continue and be a problem?MikeSmithson said:Given the national polling situation I think TSE was right to lead on Ashcroft
What we've seen is a trend of declining 2010 LD support for LAB which for years I've argued is a firewall. That we might be seeing signs of that crumble is significant.
I return from Spain on Thursday for the by-elections.
Not sure they're putting up candidates in the key marginals though.
Labour now has a problem like the Tories have with UKIP.0 -
Big victory for same-sex marriage campaigners in the US following Supreme Court decision:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/06/us-usa-court-gaymarriage-idUSKCN0HV19020141006
http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2014/10/06/seeing-the-mountaintop/0 -
All these Tory-lead polls must be outliers! They simply must be!
Seriously, next week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW should look... interesting
0 -
Haven't checked but it would have been about 3-4%.Itajai said:What was the average % for the Greens in seats they contested in 2010?
If they stand in 450 seats, and poll an average of 5% how will this affect the seat calculations? Where do they stand? Urban seats with trendy students I guess. Also comfy middle class areas? They should hurt Labour, and especially, the LDs but only where these two are in competition with the Tories.0 -
@SeanT
"And all this means that eventual western ground intervention becomes MORE likely...."
That, aside from maybe a few special forces types who are already probably there, is just not going to happen.0 -
SeanT/AndyJS/RichardN The Turkish Parliament approved action to secure its border against ISIS, they have been happy to let ISIS diminish the Kurds, but they would not want Kobane in ISIS hands on their border. I would expect Turkish tanks to start moving towards Kobane shortly, and remember the Turkish army is 290,000 strong compared to ISIS total strength of about 20-30,000 in both Syria and Iraq0
-
From memory it was standing in (roughly) half the seats and got (roughly) 1% of the vote so (roughly) 2%.Itajai said:What was the average % for the Greens in seats they contested in 2010?
That's the level UKIP polled there or thereabouts so on a similar vote distribution and a similar impact on Lab / Lib Dems as UKIP had on Tories you'll be talking about directly influencing, what, 3 or 4 seats?Itajai said:
If they stand in 450 seats, and poll an average of 5% how will this affect the seat calculations?
In about 75% of seats, so most places.Itajai said:
Where do they stand? Urban seats with trendy students I guess. Also comfy middle class areas?0 -
Miss Plato, that's a total disgrace, as is the fact it isn't a surprise.
Edited extra bit: Mr. T, cheers for the clarification.0 -
Yes, and they've got serious kit as well, plus likely US air support, intelligence, and drones. They've certainly got the capability, but have they got the will?HYUFD said:SeanT/AndyJS/RichardN The Turkish Parliament approved action to secure its border against ISIS, they have been happy to let ISIS diminish the Kurds, but they would not want Kobane in ISIS hands on their border. I would expect Turkish tanks to start moving towards Kobane shortly, and remember the Turkish army is 290,000 strong compared to ISIS total strength of about 20-30,000 in both Syria and Iraq
0 -
National vote share was 0.9%, Green Party of England and Wales stood in 310 seats, equates to an average share of less than 1.8% per seat.AndyJS said:
Haven't checked but it would have been about 3-4%.Itajai said:What was the average % for the Greens in seats they contested in 2010?
If they stand in 450 seats, and poll an average of 5% how will this affect the seat calculations? Where do they stand? Urban seats with trendy students I guess. Also comfy middle class areas? They should hurt Labour, and especially, the LDs but only where these two are in competition with the Tories.
Note that the Greens only put on 8,000 votes between 2005 and 2010, despite the increase in turnout and standing in >100 extra seats. One presumes due to tactical voting, given that Green vote share did increase where they had a chance of making an impact - eg Brighton and Norwich.
0 -
Given the polling I'm giving you a 50% early payment discount offer.Neil said:
Reasonably confident of standing in 75% of the seats this time so that will be most of the key marginals. There's two ways of looking at it. Yes, more people voting Green in more constituencies will hurt Labour (and Lib Dems) compared to 2010 but 7% is a fair amount for Labour and Lib Dems to squeeze in marginals where they wont have a chance / wont stand between polls as they now stand and next May.Casino_Royale said:?
Not sure they're putting up candidates in the key marginals though.
So instead of paying me £420 quid next May, I'll take £200 now.
:-)
0 -
No, there are better-qualified people than me.Plato said:OT Do you have any intentions of standing for Chair of Wealden Cons? I see the current chappy is standing down.
0 -
Adding in Scotland gets another 20 seats and 0.1% of the vote. I dont think Northern Ireland makes much difference either way (and Northern Ireland doesnt get polled anyway which is often handy to remember when betting on vote shares).OblitusSumMe said:
National vote share was 0.9%, Green Party of England and Wales stood in 310 seats, equates to an average share of less than 1.8% per seat.AndyJS said:
Haven't checked but it would have been about 3-4%.Itajai said:What was the average % for the Greens in seats they contested in 2010?
If they stand in 450 seats, and poll an average of 5% how will this affect the seat calculations? Where do they stand? Urban seats with trendy students I guess. Also comfy middle class areas? They should hurt Labour, and especially, the LDs but only where these two are in competition with the Tories.0 -
If you offer to double the stakes I'm sure Neil will accept.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given the polling I'm giving you a 50% early payment discount offer.Neil said:
Reasonably confident of standing in 75% of the seats this time so that will be most of the key marginals. There's two ways of looking at it. Yes, more people voting Green in more constituencies will hurt Labour (and Lib Dems) compared to 2010 but 7% is a fair amount for Labour and Lib Dems to squeeze in marginals where they wont have a chance / wont stand between polls as they now stand and next May.Casino_Royale said:?
Not sure they're putting up candidates in the key marginals though.
So instead of paying me £420 quid next May, I'll take £200 now.
:-)0 -
So, that's a possible dictator-deposition in North Korea, ebola in Spain, the probable fall of Kobane, ISIS taking Ramadi[sp] and on Baghdad's doorstep.
This is very much small potatoes compared to that lot, but the Mitchell report must be redone: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-295150440 -
Where are Labour and the Tories really in terms if percentage of the vote, if an election were hold tomorrow ? I personally don't think UKIP will get anywhere near 17%, as that is just due to people protesting against Con/Lab/Lib. Faced with a choice of government Con or Lab, I think a lot of people will reluctantly revert to the party they normally support.
I still think we will end up with Con and Lab between 34-36%, Lib Dems 10-13%, UKIP 10-13%. Seatwise I predict Lab between 290-310, Con 260-280, Lib Dems 30-40, UKIP 3-5.
The average seat churning at elections is about 60 seats in the usual marginals, plus a few unexpected results. There will be significant tactical voting around the country. We have seen from local by-elections that Labour voters still appear to vote Lib Dem to beat the Tories. UKIP will be pretty strong where the Tories won't want them to be and we may see Labour win back some of the seats last held in 2005.0 -
A lot of Green candidates have been selected recently. Total is now about 70.
London candidates:
http://london.greenparty.org.uk/elections/2015-general-election.html0 -
Don't disagree with that, but I think ISIS might be doing something stupid right now.SeanT said:
Do some research. Turkey is tolerant of ISIS, if not covertly aiding it. There is plentiful evidence of Turks turning a blind eye to ISIS weapons smuggling. ISIS fighters are treated for free in Urfa hospital, in Turkey - etc.Richard_Nabavi said:
I expect they will, and the Turkish armed forces are a rather more serious outfit than ISIS have faced so far. Poking the Turks may not be a smart strategic move for ISIS.AndyJS said:
Bombs are apparently falling on the Turkish side of the border. Pity Turkish forces don't take action.SeanT said:BBC now reporting that Kobane is falling. Calamitous for the Coalition. Huge boost for ISIS.
Terrifying for people there.
@jenanmoussa 9m9 minutes ago
Everyone in #kobane is in danger. YPG says 1000s of civilian still inside. ISIS is in #kobane now. Fears that all will be killed. @akhbar
Ankara see Assad and insurgent Kurds as a greater foe than Islamic State.
The Turkish authorities also believe they can control ISIS, and use it to their own ends. I suspect they are making a tragic error.
The Turks will not attack ISIS, unless ISIS does something very stupid. ISIS is many things, but it is not a stupid organisation.0 -
I'm going to make you a big, generous offer - fancy doubling your stake?TheScreamingEagles said:
Given the polling I'm giving you a 50% early payment discount offer.Neil said:
Reasonably confident of standing in 75% of the seats this time so that will be most of the key marginals. There's two ways of looking at it. Yes, more people voting Green in more constituencies will hurt Labour (and Lib Dems) compared to 2010 but 7% is a fair amount for Labour and Lib Dems to squeeze in marginals where they wont have a chance / wont stand between polls as they now stand and next May.Casino_Royale said:?
Not sure they're putting up candidates in the key marginals though.
So instead of paying me £420 quid next May, I'll take £200 now.
:-)
0 -
The news that the Greens plan to double their candidates for the GE is significant as it could take 1% from each of Labour and the Greens. Just to "stand still" Labour and the Lib Dems polling comparisons may have to be adjusted up because there are going to be so many more leftie candidates available to voters next time.0
-
No worries, settling your wagers and giving up your seat on public transport is the PB way.SeanT said:
Very droll.Theuniondivvie said:
Mystifying as to why they need £800k worth of security, unless it's to keep the poor f***ers in.john_zims said:@TCPoliticalBetting
'Guido has the pics from the Lib Dems hot date Conference.
http://order-order.com/2014/10/06/boring-snoring-libdem-conference-picture-special/
Great photos, not quite a sell-out though but no need to worry about crowd control.
And - btw - thanks for settling the indyref wager.
Mr Senior, any word on when and how you want to settle up?0 -
There should be a full slate in London.AndyJS said:A lot of Green candidates have been selected recently. Total is now about 70.
London candidates:
http://london.greenparty.org.uk/elections/2015-general-election.html
0 -
Greenery seemed an indulgence in 2010 with the financial crisis - rather less so now so bounce back likely especially with no positive vision from EdM.OblitusSumMe said:
National vote share was 0.9%, Green Party of England and Wales stood in 310 seats, equates to an average share of less than 1.8% per seat.AndyJS said:
Haven't checked but it would have been about 3-4%.Itajai said:What was the average % for the Greens in seats they contested in 2010?
If they stand in 450 seats, and poll an average of 5% how will this affect the seat calculations? Where do they stand? Urban seats with trendy students I guess. Also comfy middle class areas? They should hurt Labour, and especially, the LDs but only where these two are in competition with the Tories.
Note that the Greens only put on 8,000 votes between 2005 and 2010, despite the increase in turnout and standing in >100 extra seats. One presumes due to tactical voting, given that Green vote share did increase where they had a chance of making an impact - eg Brighton and Norwich.0 -
No, I don't want to take advantage of your generosity.Neil said:
I'm going to make you a big, generous offer - fancy doubling your stake?TheScreamingEagles said:
Given the polling I'm giving you a 50% early payment discount offer.Neil said:
Reasonably confident of standing in 75% of the seats this time so that will be most of the key marginals. There's two ways of looking at it. Yes, more people voting Green in more constituencies will hurt Labour (and Lib Dems) compared to 2010 but 7% is a fair amount for Labour and Lib Dems to squeeze in marginals where they wont have a chance / wont stand between polls as they now stand and next May.Casino_Royale said:?
Not sure they're putting up candidates in the key marginals though.
So instead of paying me £420 quid next May, I'll take £200 now.
:-)0 -
It seems innumerate to me. They stood in about 50% of seats last time and plan to stand in 75% next time.TCPoliticalBetting said:The news that the Greens plan to double their candidates for the GE is significant
And it's already allowed for in the polling. I think Labour particularly and the Lib Dems also will be hopeful of squeezing that right down in a GE.
0 -
RichardN/SeanT If and when Kobane falls and the Kurds in Kobane are out the way the Turks will then move in as Kobane is right on the border with Turkey, the Turkish Parliament has mandated action against ISIS to secure its border, but at the same time they will not give support to the PKK. The Nato Secretary General has also promised to give full support to Turkish forces as Turkey is a NATO member, probably with air support0
-
I'm all in favour of capping pension costs.Neil said:Body that represents companies that overcharge people for their pensions criticises Lib Dem pension minister who is bringing in a cap on the charges they can levy on their customers:
http://www.cityam.com/1412567481/lib-dems-told-stop-tinkering-pensions-industry-body
Good luck with that battle, ABI.
Nothing to do with the fact. That I own shares in a lovely little company that helps independent IFAs invest small portfolios on a very low cost basis while being 100% regulatory compliant...0 -
Middle East Eye @MiddleEastEye 44m44 minutes ago
Despite pledging to stop an #ISIS advance at #Kobane, #Turkey has done nothing, writes David Barchard. Read more at: http://ow.ly/CkYzG
I think we can blame Obama and President Erdogan directly for the fall of Kobane; if it indeed falls. Obama for bigging up air attacks that will stop ISIL and Erdogan for sitting on his bum and letting Kurds die.0 -
On either this thread, or the last @Antifrank said no one ever, ever gives up their seat for older people on public transport in London... As someone who always does I found that a strange claim to make0
-
Another disgraceful case of judicial activism, creating rather than enforcing the law. Elected officials and the people in referenda have consistently rejected so called gay marriage.AndyJS said:Big victory for same-sex marriage campaigners in the US following Supreme Court decision:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/06/us-usa-court-gaymarriage-idUSKCN0HV19020141006
http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2014/10/06/seeing-the-mountaintop/0 -
Was Loving V Virginia another disgraceful case of judicial activism in your eyes?FalseFlag said:
Another disgraceful case of judicial activism, creating rather than enforcing the law. Elected officials and the people in referenda have consistently rejected so called gay marriage.AndyJS said:Big victory for same-sex marriage campaigners in the US following Supreme Court decision:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/06/us-usa-court-gaymarriage-idUSKCN0HV19020141006
http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2014/10/06/seeing-the-mountaintop/
0 -
Disturbing that Turkey is a NATO member, a very good reason to leave it.HYUFD said:RichardN/SeanT If and when Kobane falls and the Kurds in Kobane are out the way the Turks will then move in as Kobane is right on the border with Turkey, the Turkish Parliament has mandated action against ISIS to secure its border, but at the same time they will not give support to the PKK. The Nato Secretary General has also promised to give full support to Turkish forces as Turkey is a NATO member, probably with air support
0 -
FalseFlag Most polls now show a clear majority of Americans support gay marriage0
-
Is it possible to bet on the Greens getting more votes than the LDs at the general election?0
-
If a law isn't constitutional, it isn't a lawFalseFlag said:
Another disgraceful case of judicial activism, creating rather than enforcing the law. Elected officials and the people in referenda have consistently rejected so called gay marriage.AndyJS said:Big victory for same-sex marriage campaigners in the US following Supreme Court decision:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/06/us-usa-court-gaymarriage-idUSKCN0HV19020141006
http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2014/10/06/seeing-the-mountaintop/
And it is not 'so called gay marriage' - it is marriage equality.0 -
It's SSM isn't it? Best to keep the FBI and CIA on their feet.oxfordsimon said:
If a law isn't constitutional, it isn't a lawFalseFlag said:
Another disgraceful case of judicial activism, creating rather than enforcing the law. Elected officials and the people in referenda have consistently rejected so called gay marriage.AndyJS said:Big victory for same-sex marriage campaigners in the US following Supreme Court decision:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/06/us-usa-court-gaymarriage-idUSKCN0HV19020141006
http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2014/10/06/seeing-the-mountaintop/
And it is not 'so called gay marriage' - it is marriage equality.
0 -
MikeK Air strikes can only do so much, the Turks could stop the ISIS advance in this part of Syria almost immediately if they wished, hopefully ISIS will push right to the Turkish border then the Turks can do the work on the ground, ISIS is making progress much like the Nazis' blietzkrieg but eventually the Nazis overreached themselves squeezed in by the Russians the British and the Americans, ISIS will eventually be squeezed too by the Turks, the Iranians, Assad, the Kurds and the Shia Iraqis0
-
Labour certainly will want to squeeze the Green vote in a lot of Con-Lab marginals. But will Greenish voters listen anymore? Ed has said some good stuff on climate change (if you are that way inclined).Neil said:
It seems innumerate to me. They stood in about 50% of seats last time and plan to stand in 75% next time.TCPoliticalBetting said:The news that the Greens plan to double their candidates for the GE is significant
And it's already allowed for in the polling. I think Labour particularly and the Lib Dems also will be hopeful of squeezing that right down in a GE.0 -
AndyJS said:
Is it possible to bet on the Greens getting more votes than the LDs at the general election?
6/1AndyJS said:Is it possible to bet on the Greens getting more votes than the LDs at the general election?
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-votes-match-bet-20 -
"Do some research. Turkey is tolerant of ISIS, if not covertly aiding it."SeanT said:
Do some research. Turkey is tolerant of ISIS, if not covertly aiding it. There is plentiful evidence of Turks turning a blind eye to ISIS weapons smuggling. ISIS fighters are treated for free in Urfa hospital, in Turkey - etc.Richard_Nabavi said:
I expect they will, and the Turkish armed forces are a rather more serious outfit than ISIS have faced so far. Poking the Turks may not be a smart strategic move for ISIS.AndyJS said:
Bombs are apparently falling on the Turkish side of the border. Pity Turkish forces don't take action.SeanT said:BBC now reporting that Kobane is falling. Calamitous for the Coalition. Huge boost for ISIS.
Terrifying for people there.
@jenanmoussa 9m9 minutes ago
Everyone in #kobane is in danger. YPG says 1000s of civilian still inside. ISIS is in #kobane now. Fears that all will be killed. @akhbar
Ankara see Assad and insurgent Kurds as a greater foe than Islamic State.
The Turkish authorities also believe they can control ISIS, and use it to their own ends. I suspect they are making a tragic error.
The Turks will not attack ISIS, unless ISIS does something very stupid. ISIS is many things, but it is not a stupid organisation.
Yep, that's mostly the way I see things as well, although I'd add that it depends on which part of the Turkish state you are talking about. It seems as though parts of the state are aiding all sides in the conflict in different ways when pursuing different aims and agendas. The question is whether this is just institutionalised panic by the Turkish government, or part of a grand plan.
As they have reasons to panic, I go for the former rather than the latter.0 -
Sunday Times reporting yesterday ISIS also planning to attack Iran and seize their nuclear secrets, if so Turkey and Iran can provide the ground forces in Syria and Iraq respectively0
-
Never start a land war against the Russians. Silly Nazis's. And I guess UkrainiansHYUFD said:MikeK Air strikes can only do so much, the Turks could stop the ISIS advance in this part of Syria almost immediately if they wished, hopefully ISIS will push right to the Turkish border then the Turks can do the work on the ground, ISIS is making progress much like the Nazis' blietzkrieg but eventually the Nazis overreached themselves squeezed in by the Russians the British and the Americans, ISIS will eventually be squeezed too by the Turks, the Iranians, Assad, the Kurds and the Shia Iraqis
0 -
I agree. I don't know what he was on about: I see it all the time.isam said:On either this thread, or the last @Antifrank said no one ever, ever gives up their seat for older people on public transport in London... As someone who always does I found that a strange claim to make
0 -
I'm pretty sure they will, yes. They are generally very tactically aware. I have been involved in elections where we have won a seat in the locals and not even scrapped a deposit in the GE in the same ward on the same day.rottenborough said:
Labour certainly will want to squeeze the Green vote in a lot of Con-Lab marginals. But will Greenish voters listen anymore?0 -
CANCER BOY WINS BRAVERY AWARD0
-
JBriskin I expect there are even some pretty ISIS maidens if you look hard enough0
-
JBriskin And silly Napoleon0
-
The Kobane business and our Nato allies inaction does rather remind me of the Russians sitting out the Warsaw Uprising and declining to intervene until it was crushed by the Nazis before advancing.0
-
And the SwedesHYUFD said:JBriskin And silly Napoleon
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Northern_War0 -
SeanT The Sunday Times yesterday reported ISIS was preparing for war with Iran and to seize their nuclear secrets
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/world_news/Middle_East/article1467470.ece
Iraq is 2/3 Shia, while Sunni ISIS may hold northern Iraq they will not get so far in the more Shia south0 -
Conference Trivia:
Now we're coming to the end of the conference season a few statistics are starting to bubble up like these on equality
Number of Keynote Women Speakers at Conference
Labour 10
UKIP 5
Conservatives 4
Libdems 3
Number of Keynote BME Speakers at Conference
UKIP 3
Labour 2
Conservatives 1
Libdems 0
Those Coalition parties need to buck their ideas up don't they and as for the Libdems well ?0 -
The Uprising ended exactly 70 years ago this week.Paul_Mid_Beds said:The Kobane business and our Nato allies inaction does rather remind me of the Russians sitting out the Warsaw Uprising and declining to intervene until it was crushed by the Nazis before advancing.
0 -
Surprise surprise we're being softened up to put ground troops in -just as they would have if we'd bombed Syria last year. I say again, arm Assad, let him destroy ISIS.0
-
More importantly - I can exclusively reveal to PB tonight that the neckbeard count at LD conf is >1manofkent2014 said:Conference Trivia:
Now we're coming to the end of the conference season a few statistics are starting to bubble up like these on equality
Number of Keynote Women Speakers at Conference
Labour 10
UKIP 5
Conservatives 4
Libdems 3
Number of Keynote BME Speakers at Conference
UKIP 3
Labour 2
Conservatives 1
Libdems 0
Those Coalition parties need to buck their ideas up don't they and as for the Libdems well ?
Very disheartening.
0 -
edity edit edit.
Honestly - I'm just out of practice (sic)0 -
Just released prices for the Heywood and Middleton, Clackton by-election on sporting index for anyone interested.0
-
SeanT Maybe, but they if they attack Iran, Iran may well deploy ground troops in Syria alongside Assad0
-
Surely ISIS are awful enough that even Sunnis will get sick of their governance before time?SeanT said:
But Syria is majority Sunni. I can see ISIS taking over most of the country, even as they hold onto half of Iraq. That would be a formidable enemy, bristling with weapons, flush with money.HYUFD said:SeanT The Sunday Times yesterday reported ISIS was preparing for war with Iran and to seize their nuclear secrets
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/world_news/Middle_East/article1467470.ece
Iraq is 2/3 Shia, while Sunni ISIS may hold northern Iraq they will not get so far in the more Shia south0 -
Yes I fairly sure I got that last one wrong people.
A bit like that Scott Adams joke about you having a 50% chance right of getting it right when you do the L on the forehead thing.0 -
'keynote' eh?manofkent2014 said:Conference Trivia:
Now we're coming to the end of the conference season a few statistics are starting to bubble up like these on equality
Number of Keynote Women Speakers at Conference
Labour 10
UKIP 5
Conservatives 4
Libdems 3
Number of Keynote BME Speakers at Conference
UKIP 3
Labour 2
Conservatives 1
Libdems 0
Those Coalition parties need to buck their ideas up don't they and as for the Libdems well ?0 -
I think you'll find the Russians are already arming Assad.Luckyguy1983 said:Surprise surprise we're being softened up to put ground troops in -just as they would have if we'd bombed Syria last year. I say again, arm Assad, let him destroy ISIS.
0 -
And he'd use all the extra weapons to concentrate on the non-ISIS rebels as he has for the last couple of years.Luckyguy1983 said:Surprise surprise we're being softened up to put ground troops in -just as they would have if we'd bombed Syria last year. I say again, arm Assad, let him destroy ISIS.
0 -
What about the Mongols? And the alliance during the Crimean war...JBriskin said:
Never start a land war against the Russians. Silly Nazis's. And I guess UkrainiansHYUFD said:MikeK Air strikes can only do so much, the Turks could stop the ISIS advance in this part of Syria almost immediately if they wished, hopefully ISIS will push right to the Turkish border then the Turks can do the work on the ground, ISIS is making progress much like the Nazis' blietzkrieg but eventually the Nazis overreached themselves squeezed in by the Russians the British and the Americans, ISIS will eventually be squeezed too by the Turks, the Iranians, Assad, the Kurds and the Shia Iraqis
0 -
Winston Churchill pleaded with Stalin and Franklin D. Roosevelt to help Britain's Polish allies, to no avail. Then, without Soviet air clearance, Churchill sent over 200 low-level supply drops by the Royal Air Force, the South African Air Force and the Polish Air Force under British High Command. Later, after gaining Soviet air clearance, the US Army Air Force sent one high-level mass airdrop as part of Operation Frantic. The Soviet Union refused to allow American bombers from Western Europe to land on Soviet airfields after dropping supplies to the Poles.[12]Paul_Mid_Beds said:The Kobane business and our Nato allies inaction does rather remind me of the Russians sitting out the Warsaw Uprising and declining to intervene until it was crushed by the Nazis before advancing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warsaw_Uprising0
