So, that's a possible dictator-deposition in North Korea, ebola in Spain, the probable fall of Kobane, ISIS taking Ramadi[sp] and on Baghdad's doorstep.
MikeK Air strikes can only do so much, the Turks could stop the ISIS advance in this part of Syria almost immediately if they wished, hopefully ISIS will push right to the Turkish border then the Turks can do the work on the ground, ISIS is making progress much like the Nazis' blietzkrieg but eventually the Nazis overreached themselves squeezed in by the Russians the British and the Americans, ISIS will eventually be squeezed too by the Turks, the Iranians, Assad, the Kurds and the Shia Iraqis
Never start a land war against the Russians. Silly Nazis's. And I guess Ukrainians
What about the Mongols? And the alliance during the Crimean war...
The Germans in WW1 would have walked it if they did not have to fight in the West as well.
MikeK Air strikes can only do so much, the Turks could stop the ISIS advance in this part of Syria almost immediately if they wished, hopefully ISIS will push right to the Turkish border then the Turks can do the work on the ground, ISIS is making progress much like the Nazis' blietzkrieg but eventually the Nazis overreached themselves squeezed in by the Russians the British and the Americans, ISIS will eventually be squeezed too by the Turks, the Iranians, Assad, the Kurds and the Shia Iraqis
Never start a land war against the Russians. Silly Nazis's. And I guess Ukrainians
What about the Mongols? And the alliance during the Crimean war...
Somebody just think of a sentence with "more right-wing then Genghis Khan" and make sure it kinda fits.
SeanT Maybe, but they if they attack Iran, Iran may well deploy ground troops in Syria alongside Assad
This whole uprising has happened in both Syria and Iraq because Sunnis are being ruled by sectarian Shiites. The only way out of it is for a Sunni alternative to ISIS to displace them.
BBC now reporting that Kobane is falling. Calamitous for the Coalition. Huge boost for ISIS.
Terrifying for people there.
@jenanmoussa 9m9 minutes ago Everyone in #kobane is in danger. YPG says 1000s of civilian still inside. ISIS is in #kobane now. Fears that all will be killed. @akhbar
Bombs are apparently falling on the Turkish side of the border. Pity Turkish forces don't take action.
I expect they will, and the Turkish armed forces are a rather more serious outfit than ISIS have faced so far. Poking the Turks may not be a smart strategic move for ISIS.
Do some research. Turkey is tolerant of ISIS, if not covertly aiding it. There is plentiful evidence of Turks turning a blind eye to ISIS weapons smuggling. ISIS fighters are treated for free in Urfa hospital, in Turkey - etc.
Ankara see Assad and insurgent Kurds as a greater foe than Islamic State.
The Turkish authorities also believe they can control ISIS, and use it to their own ends. I suspect they are making a tragic error.
The Turks will not attack ISIS, unless ISIS does something very stupid. ISIS is many things, but it is not a stupid organisation.
Don't disagree with that, but I think ISIS might be doing something stupid right now.
BBC now reporting that Kobane is falling. Calamitous for the Coalition. Huge boost for ISIS.
Terrifying for people there.
@jenanmoussa 9m9 minutes ago Everyone in #kobane is in danger. YPG says 1000s of civilian still inside. ISIS is in #kobane now. Fears that all will be killed. @akhbar
Bombs are apparently falling on the Turkish side of the border. Pity Turkish forces don't take action.
I expect they will, and the Turkish armed forces are a rather more serious outfit than ISIS have faced so far. Poking the Turks may not be a smart strategic move for ISIS.
Do some research. Turkey is tolerant of ISIS, if not covertly aiding it. There is plentiful evidence of Turks turning a blind eye to ISIS weapons smuggling. ISIS fighters are treated for free in Urfa hospital, in Turkey - etc.
Ankara see Assad and insurgent Kurds as a greater foe than Islamic State.
The Turkish authorities also believe they can control ISIS, and use it to their own ends. I suspect they are making a tragic error.
The Turks will not attack ISIS, unless ISIS does something very stupid. ISIS is many things, but it is not a stupid organisation.
I heard an interview 2-3 weeks ago on the radio with an intelligence guy and he basically said the the Turkish Secret Service were at best doing next to nothing to stop the flow of people and weapons, despite well aware what is going on and how it is been facilitated.
The best they do is occasionally pick up western youths who fly into Istanbul and alike and tell them not to go to Syria, before letting them go on their way.
No records kept, no cooperation with western intelligence services, etc.
Teachers are now "the rich". People earning over £42,000 are now the "15%" or "the wealthy"
That kind of rhetoric will drive some public sector workers into the arms of the Tories.
You'd have to have some kind of management role to get that (though there are more managers than 'just' teachers these days...) May go down well with said managers but they're seen as a blight by teachers. If anything, I imagine front line public sector workers are further turned off by politicians (Cameron, Gove and a couple of others during conference) blazoning teachers, nurses etc as a shield for tax cuts.
So - does that make them 'rich' in the scheme of things? What they have is responsibility. The nerve to want a career. Likewise people in the private sector. Accusing people of favourng the rich, just because you are proposing to increase the allowances for the 40% tax band after years of it being depressed, and then saying that its all the friends of the govt is plain ignorant and pathetic.
And for Mr Senior's benefit - I am far from rich very far.
Teachers are now "the rich". People earning over £42,000 are now the "15%" or "the wealthy"
That kind of rhetoric will drive some public sector workers into the arms of the Tories.
You'd have to have some kind of management role to get that (though there are more managers than 'just' teachers these days...) May go down well with said managers but they're seen as a blight by teachers. If anything, I imagine front line public sector workers are further turned off by politicians (Cameron, Gove and a couple of others during conference) blazoning teachers, nurses etc as a shield for tax cuts.
So - does that make them 'rich' in the scheme of things? What they have is responsibility. The nerve to want a career. Likewise people in the private sector. Accusing people of favourng the rich, just because you are proposing to increase the allowances for the 40% tax band after years of it being depressed, and then saying that its all the friends of the govt is plain ignorant and pathetic.
And for Mr Senior's benefit - I am far from rich very far.
Speaking for myself, as a middle manager in education, I only wish I were earning enough to be taxed at the higher rate! An assistant head might get that kind of money, but not me - in fact, I don't get much more than half that. And there are certainly not more of them than there are ordinary teachers - far from it.
However, I should point out that I at least have done pretty well out of the coalition. I got a big bursary to retrain as a teacher (sadly they've cut it again) with the option of a loan to cover all my fees, repayable by income a la a graduate tax, a decent job, a nice house with low council tax, and a very comfortable salary indeed that is still rising even though more slowly than inflation. Of course, I work hard - but bearing in mind I lost my previous job as a result of the crash in 2008, and spent three years out of work, I feel that I do owe the government a favour. The same is true of many in the profession - except teachers tend not to do gratitude.
The favour is that I don't go on about Michael Gove passim ad nauseam, of course...which leaves my vote still up for grabs in May.
SeanT Maybe, but they if they attack Iran, Iran may well deploy ground troops in Syria alongside Assad
This whole uprising has happened in both Syria and Iraq because Sunnis are being ruled by sectarian Shiites. The only way out of it is for a Sunni alternative to ISIS to displace them.
Portraying what's happening in Syria as a sectarian revolution is US/Saudi propaganda. Assad's army consists largely of Sunnis. Many of the victims of terror in this conflict have been Sunnis. Syrians are, first and foremost, proud to be Syrian. That's why a foreign backed insurgency has failed to oust Assad. The US and its regional partners have been paying any nutter who wants to go to Syria and kill. Syrians know this; that's why the rather pathetic 'opposition' formed by the West will never have any legitimacy.
I find it mind boggling that Osborne has the personal best ratings of all the major politicians they ask about, excluding BoJo. I don't even think even Tories on here would say that he oozes "like-ability" *, would they?
* Yes I know technically the question is about how well / how badly they are doing, but I always see these questions really through a focus of how popular they are with the public.
The British cameraman who contracted Ebola while working in Liberia is thought to have become infected when he was splashed as he spray-cleaned a vehicle in which a victim had died, his father has said.
Ashoka Mukpo, 33, arrived by private plane for treatment at the Nebraska Medical Centre in Omaha, the largest bio-containment hospital in the United States, where he was said to be suffering nausea and fever but had not yet reached the critical stage of the disease.
In a press conference, his British mother Diana Mukpo, an aristocrat who went to school with the Princess Royal and now runs a dressage centre in the US, and American father, Mitchell Levy, himself a leading doctor, told of their relief that their “strong-willed” son was receiving treatment.
Dr Levy said he had told Mr Mukpo he was “crazy” to go to Liberia.
A graduate of the London School of Economics, Mr Mukpo had been working for a NGO for two years in the West African nation before returning home to the US state of Rhode Island in May.
Surprise surprise we're being softened up to put ground troops in -just as they would have if we'd bombed Syria last year. I say again, arm Assad, let him destroy ISIS.
And he'd use all the extra weapons to concentrate on the non-ISIS rebels as he has for the last couple of years.
He could just use all the chemical weapons he's saved. No doubt the Russians would hand over any they've accidentally not destroyed to help.
I think 2010 Lib-Dems could be tempted to raising the 40p rate?
Well it wouldn't tempt the Red ones back - who apparently are now heading to Con. You couldn't make it up...
That's what I meant. The fabled (and supposedly solid) 2010 Lib-Dem switchers.
Must be quite a few teachers, nurse's, etc.. Who voted Lib-Dem in 2010, switched to Labour after the coalition was formed but are now tempted to the Tories by the 40p tax announcement....
I think 2010 Lib-Dems could be tempted to raising the 40p rate?
Well it wouldn't tempt the Red ones back - who apparently are now heading to Con. You couldn't make it up...
That's what I meant. The fabled (and supposedly solid) 010 Lib-Dem switchers.
Must be quite a few teachers, nurse's, etc.. Who voted Lib-Dem in 2010, switched to Labour after the coalition was formed but are now tempted to the Tories by the 40p tax announcement....
Yeah, maybe. Makes sense. I personally think it's probably just all a bit presidential and, wait for it, Ed's a bit crap.
Sources say Michael Howard among Tory names for EU Commissioner Nick Clegg indicated to Cameron he would block #ldconf
I had a betting slip with Michael Howard at 25/1
Did he threaten to overrule Cameron?Did he threaten to overrule Cameron?Did he threaten to overrule Cameron?Did he threaten to overrule Cameron?Did he threaten to overrule Cameron?Did he threaten to overrule Cameron?Did he threaten to overrule Cameron?Did he threaten to overrule Cameron?Did he threaten to overrule Cameron?Did he threaten to overrule Cameron?Did he threaten to overrule Cameron?Did he threaten to overrule Cameron?Did he threaten to overrule Cameron?Did he threaten to overrule Cameron?
Surprise surprise we're being softened up to put ground troops in -just as they would have if we'd bombed Syria last year. I say again, arm Assad, let him destroy ISIS.
And he'd use all the extra weapons to concentrate on the non-ISIS rebels as he has for the last couple of years.
He would use them on all the foreign-backed insurgents in Syria, regardless of their designation certainly. Not sure why this would be considered a bad thing. However awful we think Assad is, the rebels consistently prove themselves worse -and they have been doing so since the beginning of this conflict.
Isn't that the requirement of all EU Commissioners?
Touting how he was a pro-European and citing his backing of Ken Clarke to prove it isn't.
Still, it doesn't matter much. Juncker will take any contentious issue out of his hands to go to a non-Brit, as he has with the bank bonus tax. The awarding of the brief to a Brit was just a PR exercise.
Isn't that the requirement of all EU Commissioners?
Touting how he was a pro-European and citing his backing of Ken Clarke to prove it isn't.
Well he's only expressing the will of the British people.
The polls show a plurality of voters wish for us to remain in the EU, and the polls in the past, have shown Ken Clarke is one of the most popular politicians out there.
Hound's had the end of his ear bitten off. Operation overnight. A week or two ago he had blood in his lungs (which thankfully seems to have cleared). Hopefully he'll be fine by morning.
I went door knocking there on Friday, in Frinton... what a beautiful part of town that is
I'd like to, but it's a three hour train journey each way, which is putting me off.
Rochester is closer to me (only 2 hours on the train!).
Sadly I can't make it at either place for personal reasons, but I wish all who do go pleasant weather and and get those voters down to the polling stations.
In view of The Greens' recent resurgence, they now look likely to hold Brighton Pavilion where Labour were previously the favourites. Those additional Green votes must be emanating predominantly from Labour. How many marginal seats might they prevent the Reds from winning by taking an additional 2% - 3% of the vote? A handful maybe.
Easterross Posts: 1,330 8:28PM I am starting to wonder given Ed's reputed 35% policy, which pollster will be first to record Labour back at 29% or lower in the polls. Flag Quote EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 95 8:27PM Tykejohnno said: Have we had a thread on this yet ;-)
Populus: L 37 C 31 UKIP 15 LD 8 GRN 3
Somewhat unfortunate juxta-positioning of posts just now!
On either this thread, or the last @Antifrank said no one ever, ever gives up their seat for older people on public transport in London... As someone who always does I found that a strange claim to make
Either the world is a lot ruder than it appears, or some people are very unlucky in either facing rudeness themselves or witnessing it. Just the other day on a narrow-ish path a long bearded middle aged fellow coming the opposite way held back to let me through, and was apparently astonished when I gave brief acknowledgement and thanks that he felt moved to comment upon my politeness, which quite flustered me as I've never seen anyone not do such a thing.
Well I haven't got a Sporting Index account, but there is a mahoooooooooosive bet available on those by election markets in my opinion
Buy Conservatives @ 8.5 ?
I thought that at first but I'd plump for selling Labour at 2
If you think the Conservatives might sneak it I suppose you might buy them, if you think UKIP have it in the bag, sell Labour
Either way I think its free money
Thanks for this which I am pondering over. I think that CON will come 2nd with LAB 3rd but the polling difference wasn't that great, 5%, that the risk is too great compared with the potential reward.
In any case the Spanish don't let me contact UK bookmaker sites.
The Green resurgence really seems odd to me. Why now? They've not seemed to have any substantive, sustained increase in all these years, they've seemed increasingly irrelevant and being unsuccessful chasing left of Labour votes, but now they're doing well. Have LDs who have held firm for 4 years finally lost nerve and jumped ship.
In view of The Greens' recent resurgence, they now look likely to hold Brighton Pavilion where Labour were previously the favourites. Those additional Green votes must be emanating predominantly from Labour. How many marginal seats might they prevent the Reds from winning by taking an additional 2% - 3% of the vote? A handful maybe.
If you look at 2 Oct 2013 vs 2 Oct 2014
2014 Green 5%: 2010-Con 1%, 2010-Lab 4%, 2010-LD 11% 2013 Green 3%: 2010-Con 0%, 2010-Lab 0%, 2010-LD 6%
The Green resurgence really seems odd to me. Why now? They've not seemed to have any substantive, sustained increase in all these years, they've seemed increasingly irrelevant and being unsuccessful chasing left of Labour votes, but now they're doing well. Have LDs who have held firm for 4 years finally lost nerve and jumped ship.
It does have the feel of a NOTA thing - it is not as if the Greens have had any positive message or coverage in recent months. "A plague on all your houses" seems to be the only explanation for their apparent (and I suspect temporary) rise.
I see Panorama pushing a certain political line again. You have to listen really carefully to some of the examples to catch what has really happened.
e.g A couple lost tax credits and now in "poverty" on a debt management plan, despite earning £25k (not a lot, but I don't think most would think that is poverty, especially as they aren't in London). How awful, nasty government.
Why....because in the good times they ran up £26k in debts and were already only just making the repayments.
And of course the downward pressure on wages, don't mention the I word....
It is strange how 1 million Poles have come to the UK and the vast vast majority work incredibly hard and somehow don't hear a word of them being in poverty. If work paid so badly, why would they come here and stay? Germany for instance doesn't have enough young people to fill entry level roles.
Mr. kle4, not sure it's Lib Dems, so much as Labour voters looking at Miliband and changing their mind. Labour have (according to most polls) lost a little support lately.
The Green resurgence really seems odd to me. Why now? They've not seemed to have any substantive, sustained increase in all these years, they've seemed increasingly irrelevant and being unsuccessful chasing left of Labour votes, but now they're doing well. Have LDs who have held firm for 4 years finally lost nerve and jumped ship.
In view of The Greens' recent resurgence, they now look likely to hold Brighton Pavilion where Labour were previously the favourites. Those additional Green votes must be emanating predominantly from Labour. How many marginal seats might they prevent the Reds from winning by taking an additional 2% - 3% of the vote? A handful maybe.
While I agree Green votes will deprive Lab and Lib of some seats (gains and retentions respectively, I'm not convinced that they will win any seats.
I suspect Brighton is the only place in the country where Tories and Kippers will be tactically voting Labour.
I see Panorama pushing a certain political line again. You have to listen really carefully to some of the examples to catch what has really happened.
e.g A couple lost tax credits and now in "poverty" on a debt management plan, despite earning £25k (not a lot, but I don't think most would think that is poverty, especially as they aren't in London). How awful, nasty government.
Why....because in the good times they ran up £26k in debts and were already only just making the repayments.
And of course the downward pressure on wages, don't mention the I word....
It is strange how 1 million Poles have come to the UK and the vast vast majority work incredibly hard and somehow don't hear a word of them being in poverty. If work paid so badly, why would they come here and stay? Germany for instance doesn't have enough young people to fill entry level roles.
Panorama pushing a political agenda? Perish the thought!
Just released prices for the Heywood and Middleton, Clackton by-election on sporting index for anyone interested.
Hey Mr. Sportingindex
Just for future reference, having a vote share spread for these by-election markets is definitely the way forward. I get that they're a little harder to price up than the 25:10:0 Index, but in return you'd get a lot more betting interest.
Anyway, credit to SPIN for getting into the game here. Hopefully you'll be offering a full range of GE markets soon?
Well I haven't got a Sporting Index account, but there is a mahoooooooooosive bet available on those by election markets in my opinion
Buy Conservatives @ 8.5 ?
I thought that at first but I'd plump for selling Labour at 2
If you think the Conservatives might sneak it I suppose you might buy them, if you think UKIP have it in the bag, sell Labour
Either way I think its free money
Thanks for this which I am pondering over. I think that CON will come 2nd with LAB 3rd but the polling difference wasn't that great, 5%, that the risk is too great compared with the potential reward.
In any case the Spanish don't let me contact UK bookmaker sites.
To be fair I canvassed in Frinton on Friday and the response was about 60-40 UKIP-Con with zero Labours.. maybe that might be influencing me too much, as Frinton is the poshest part of the constituency.
I see Panorama pushing a certain political line again. You have to listen really carefully to some of the examples to catch what has really happened.
e.g A couple lost tax credits and now in "poverty" on a debt management plan, despite earning £25k (not a lot, but I don't think most would think that is poverty, especially as they aren't in London). How awful, nasty government.
Why....because in the good times they ran up £26k in debts and were already only just making the repayments.
This is the Gordon Brown unintentional tax credit trap. While you have children they make your minumum wage up to somewhere between £30k and £50k gross equivalent depending how many you have.
Then you hit 45, the kids hit 18, the tax credits vanish and you are royally stuffed./
The other effect of tax credits has been to massively depress wages, as employers know a significant number of staff get tax credits so only see 27% of every extra pound they earn, so just offer minimum wage and let the employees max out on tax credits.
The Green resurgence really seems odd to me. Why now? They've not seemed to have any substantive, sustained increase in all these years, they've seemed increasingly irrelevant and being unsuccessful chasing left of Labour votes, but now they're doing well. Have LDs who have held firm for 4 years finally lost nerve and jumped ship.
It does have the feel of a NOTA thing - it is not as if the Greens have had any positive message or coverage in recent months. "A plague on all your houses" seems to be the only explanation for their apparent (and I suspect temporary) rise.
The LDs 2014 woes seemed to date from their 'party of in' EU campaign.
I see Panorama pushing a certain political line again. You have to listen really carefully to some of the examples to catch what has really happened.
e.g A couple lost tax credits and now in "poverty" on a debt management plan, despite earning £25k (not a lot, but I don't think most would think that is poverty, especially as they aren't in London). How awful, nasty government.
Why....because in the good times they ran up £26k in debts and were already only just making the repayments.
This is the Gordon Brown unintentional tax credit trap. While you have children they make your minumum wage up to somewhere between £30k and £50k gross equivalent depending how many you have.
Then you hit 45, the kids hit 18, the tax credits vanish and you are royally stuffed./
The other effect of tax credits has been to massively depress wages, as employers know a significant number of staff get tax credits so only see 27% of every extra pound they earn, so just offer minimum wage and let the employees max out on tax credits.
And of course Panorama are explaining this...or maybe not (to be fair I have turned it off as it was such bollocks). There is only so much of
"I have had 3 kids in past 3 years plus pets, big screen telly, etc, despite being in debt and earning minimum wage...the bastards at Tescos / government should be funding this"
...nonsense.
As soon as they started banding around the poverty stats without the necessary caveats (which are of course the nonsense relative poverty, who even the people who devised the metrics say are being misused), I because extremely suspicious.
I see Panorama pushing a certain political line again. You have to listen really carefully to some of the examples to catch what has really happened.
e.g A couple lost tax credits and now in "poverty" on a debt management plan, despite earning £25k (not a lot, but I don't think most would think that is poverty, especially as they aren't in London). How awful, nasty government.
Why....because in the good times they ran up £26k in debts and were already only just making the repayments.
This is the Gordon Brown unintentional tax credit trap. While you have children they make your minumum wage up to somewhere between £30k and £50k gross equivalent depending how many you have.
Then you hit 45, the kids hit 18, the tax credits vanish and you are royally stuffed./
The other effect of tax credits has been to massively depress wages, as employers know a significant number of staff get tax credits so only see 27% of every extra pound they earn, so just offer minimum wage and let the employees max out on tax credits.
And of course Panorama are explaining this...or maybe not (to be fair I have turned it off as it was such bollocks). There is only so much of
"I have had 3 kids in past 3 years plus pets, big screen telly, etc, despite being in debt and earning minimum wage...the bastards at Tescos / government should be funding this"
...nonsense.
As soon as they started banding around the poverty stats without the necessary caveats (which are of course the nonsense relative poverty, who even the people who devised the metrics say are being misused), I because extremely suspicious.
I see Panorama pushing a certain political line again. You have to listen really carefully to some of the examples to catch what has really happened.
e.g A couple lost tax credits and now in "poverty" on a debt management plan, despite earning £25k (not a lot, but I don't think most would think that is poverty, especially as they aren't in London). How awful, nasty government.
Why....because in the good times they ran up £26k in debts and were already only just making the repayments.
This is the Gordon Brown unintentional tax credit trap. While you have children they make your minumum wage up to somewhere between £30k and £50k gross equivalent depending how many you have.
Then you hit 45, the kids hit 18, the tax credits vanish and you are royally stuffed./
The other effect of tax credits has been to massively depress wages, as employers know a significant number of staff get tax credits so only see 27% of every extra pound they earn, so just offer minimum wage and let the employees max out on tax credits.
And of course Panorama are explaining this...or maybe not (to be fair I have turned it off as it was such bollocks). There is only so much of
"I have had 3 kids in past 3 years plus pets, big screen telly, etc, despite being in debt and earning minimum wage...the bastards at Tescos / government should be funding this"
...nonsense.
As soon as they started banding around the poverty stats without the necessary caveats (which are of course the nonsense relative poverty, who even the people who devised the metrics say are being misused), I because extremely suspicious.
You forgot Sky, tattoos, booze and smokes.
And this season´s Premiership football shirts.
I'm racking my brains to think which Jam song that reminds me of.
I don't know if this has been mentioned downthread (apologies for being late to the party), but the reduction in LD-Lab switching is not the only reason for the Tory lead in the latest Ashcroft poll; the 2010 retention figures are:
Con 68% Lab 64% (LD 24%) !!
Despite Labour polling poorly in 2010, they've still managed to lose a greater proportion of voters than the Tories, despite the presence of UKIP and the fact that swing voters were disproportionately Blue last time.
Even excluding Don't Knows and Won't Votes (which is a dubious thing to do if we're talking about people who did vote last time), it's still even stevens in terms of retention.
In fact, UKIP is not much of a net factor either, with the Tories having lost 14% of their vote to the Purples, as against 11% for Labour. OK, still a net Labour gain (more so as it's a bigger share of a bigger number for the Cons), but it's still pretty tight.
Have not been to a Lib Dem conference in 25 years except for one in Brighton a few years ago when I was helping out not a delegate .
Am I the only contributor to PB at the conference then?
I would normally be there but hate the venue so decided to give it a miss this year, As Nick Palmer says the conference debates are a small part of the conference. I know many people who never go into the auditorium.
I see Panorama pushing a certain political line again. You have to listen really carefully to some of the examples to catch what has really happened.
e.g A couple lost tax credits and now in "poverty" on a debt management plan, despite earning £25k (not a lot, but I don't think most would think that is poverty, especially as they aren't in London). How awful, nasty government.
Why....because in the good times they ran up £26k in debts and were already only just making the repayments.
This is the Gordon Brown unintentional tax credit trap. While you have children they make your minumum wage up to somewhere between £30k and £50k gross equivalent depending how many you have.
Then you hit 45, the kids hit 18, the tax credits vanish and you are royally stuffed./
The other effect of tax credits has been to massively depress wages, as employers know a significant number of staff get tax credits so only see 27% of every extra pound they earn, so just offer minimum wage and let the employees max out on tax credits.
And of course Panorama are explaining this...or maybe not (to be fair I have turned it off as it was such bollocks). There is only so much of
"I have had 3 kids in past 3 years plus pets, big screen telly, etc, despite being in debt and earning minimum wage...the bastards at Tescos / government should be funding this"
...nonsense.
As soon as they started banding around the poverty stats without the necessary caveats (which are of course the nonsense relative poverty, who even the people who devised the metrics say are being misused), I because extremely suspicious.
You forgot Sky, tattoos, booze and smokes.
And this season´s Premiership football shirts.
I'm racking my brains to think which Jam song that reminds me of.
Mr. Socrates, not entirely surprised. There seems to have been a power struggle when he first got the job, and he disappeared (for 'health' reasons) recently.
Remains to be seen how North Korea will go, but worth mentioning high level talks with South Korea were resumed recently.
On-topic: Ashcroft's polls always seem a bit bouncy.
FPT: Mr. Anorak, not seen the video but I have an understanding of what happened. He's stable but critical, reportedly. F1 cars are immensely safe, and it was sheer bad luck. Danger can never be entirely removed from motorsport.
Mr. T, if they're putting in Apaches presumably a high number of air strikes are taking place as well. I wonder if Iran is poised to invade to try and arrest the ISIS advance.
Twitter has rumours of major Iranian mobilisation.
Feels like the entire region is gearing up for the Final Facedown. ISIS versus Iran. Alien versus Predator.
Mr. Socrates, not entirely surprised. There seems to have been a power struggle when he first got the job, and he disappeared (for 'health' reasons) recently.
Remains to be seen how North Korea will go, but worth mentioning high level talks with South Korea were resumed recently.
On-topic: Ashcroft's polls always seem a bit bouncy.
FPT: Mr. Anorak, not seen the video but I have an understanding of what happened. He's stable but critical, reportedly. F1 cars are immensely safe, and it was sheer bad luck. Danger can never be entirely removed from motorsport.
Mr. T, if they're putting in Apaches presumably a high number of air strikes are taking place as well. I wonder if Iran is poised to invade to try and arrest the ISIS advance.
Twitter has rumours of major Iranian mobilisation.
Feels like the entire region is gearing up for the Final Facedown. ISIS versus Iran. Alien versus Predator.
Whoever wins, we lose.
There has been armoured & infantry divisions mobilised on their Western border for weeks. In particular there is a very nice formation that could take a wee trip into Iraqi Kurdistan thats been moved into position for at least 4 weeks.
Just as note, another series of incidents has hit their nuclear program in the last 24-48 hours.
Interesting to see a volatile Ashcroft poll showing a Conservative lead getting a thread to itself while bot the H&M poll showing Labour comfortably ahead and the Populus poll showing the Conservatives down from Friday are both consifgned to the margins.
There's more than a hint that this site is becoming increasingly pro-Conservative in its editorial policy though I'm sure I'll be told that's a mistake.
As posters of all flavours keep claiming that the site is anti their party - it seems to me the site is probably doing it just about right.
I see Panorama pushing a certain political line again. You have to listen really carefully to some of the examples to catch what has really happened.
e.g A couple lost tax credits and now in "poverty" on a debt management plan, despite earning £25k (not a lot, but I don't think most would think that is poverty, especially as they aren't in London). How awful, nasty government.
Why....because in the good times they ran up £26k in debts and were already only just making the repayments.
This is the Gordon Brown unintentional tax credit trap. While you have children they make your minumum wage up to somewhere between £30k and £50k gross equivalent depending how many you have.
Then you hit 45, the kids hit 18, the tax credits vanish and you are royally stuffed./
The other effect of tax credits has been to massively depress wages, as employers know a significant number of staff get tax credits so only see 27% of every extra pound they earn, so just offer minimum wage and let the employees max out on tax credits.
And of course Panorama are explaining this...or maybe not (to be fair I have turned it off as it was such bollocks). There is only so much of
"I have had 3 kids in past 3 years plus pets, big screen telly, etc, despite being in debt and earning minimum wage...the bastards at Tescos / government should be funding this"
...nonsense.
As soon as they started banding around the poverty stats without the necessary caveats (which are of course the nonsense relative poverty, who even the people who devised the metrics say are being misused), I because extremely suspicious.
You forgot Sky, tattoos, booze and smokes.
And this season´s Premiership football shirts.
I'm racking my brains to think which Jam song that reminds me of.
Saturdays Kids
Their mums and dads smoke Capstan non filters, Wallpaper lives 'cause they all die of cancer,
But who knows? The Greens have reportedly been targeting LDs, so perhaps the credit lies with them? Rather than fallout from the EU Parliament campaign.
I don't know if this has been mentioned downthread (apologies for being late to the party), but the reduction in LD-Lab switching is not the only reason for the Tory lead in the latest Ashcroft poll; the 2010 retention figures are:
Con 68% Lab 64% (LD 24%) !!
Despite Labour polling poorly in 2010, they've still managed to lose a greater proportion of voters than the Tories, despite the presence of UKIP and the fact that swing voters were disproportionately Blue last time.
Even excluding Don't Knows and Won't Votes (which is a dubious thing to do if we're talking about people who did vote last time), it's still even stevens in terms of retention.
In fact, UKIP is not much of a net factor either, with the Tories having lost 14% of their vote to the Purples, as against 11% for Labour. OK, still a net Labour gain (more so as it's a bigger share of a bigger number for the Cons), but it's still pretty tight.
Would want to see the trend in 2 or 3 polls before drawing conclusions bearing in mind the bouncy nature of these polls.
Talking of conference, the Mori meeting at the Tory conference had Bob Worcester and Lord Ashcroft in the same room which was an interesting clash of the titans. Wish he had gone into more depth n the Ukip Lib Dems swapping poll positions prediction. Wonder if he would do anything for the site?
I see Panorama pushing a certain political line again. You have to listen really carefully to some of the examples to catch what has really happened.
e.g A couple lost tax credits and now in "poverty" on a debt management plan, despite earning £25k (not a lot, but I don't think most would think that is poverty, especially as they aren't in London). How awful, nasty government.
Why....because in the good times they ran up £26k in debts and were already only just making the repayments.
This is the Gordon Brown unintentional tax credit trap. While you have children they make your minumum wage up to somewhere between £30k and £50k gross equivalent depending how many you have.
Then you hit 45, the kids hit 18, the tax credits vanish and you are royally stuffed./
The other effect of tax credits has been to massively depress wages, as employers know a significant number of staff get tax credits so only see 27% of every extra pound they earn, so just offer minimum wage and let the employees max out on tax credits.
And of course Panorama are explaining this...or maybe not (to be fair I have turned it off as it was such bollocks). There is only so much of
"I have had 3 kids in past 3 years plus pets, big screen telly, etc, despite being in debt and earning minimum wage...the bastards at Tescos / government should be funding this"
...nonsense.
As soon as they started banding around the poverty stats without the necessary caveats (which are of course the nonsense relative poverty, who even the people who devised the metrics say are being misused), I because extremely suspicious.
You forgot Sky, tattoos, booze and smokes.
And this season´s Premiership football shirts.
I'm racking my brains to think which Jam song that reminds me of.
Saturdays Kids
Their mums and dads smoke Capstan non filters, Wallpaper lives 'cause they all die of cancer,
"Ordinary Boys" by Morrissey describes the same people in less bovver boy way!
Polls doing the hokey cokey at the moment. Populus and Com Res with Labour 6% ahead, Yougov and Ashcroft with Tories 2% ahead. These goalposts are up and down like whores drawers.
Mr. Dave, in that case I'd say you're right about the cause, and stand corrected. Can't imagine the Farage debates helped Clegg regain lost ground, but that's another matter.
Caught up with Panorama. Family of 3, father works at Tesco. Get £7,000 a year subsidy.... The "advisor" is from the left wing Rowntree mob, paid up sponsors of the Lib Dems...
Now why do people think that it is the role of Govt to fund their breeding? if you can only afford 1 kid stop. If you cannot afford to have any then do not have them. I have two, that is expensive enough! (Rant over)
I see Panorama pushing a certain political line again. You have to listen really carefully to some of the examples to catch what has really happened.
e.g A couple lost tax credits and now in "poverty" on a debt management plan, despite earning £25k (not a lot, but I don't think most would think that is poverty, especially as they aren't in London). How awful, nasty government.
Why....because in the good times they ran up £26k in debts and were already only just making the repayments.
This is the Gordon Brown unintentional tax credit trap. While you have children they make your minumum wage up to somewhere between £30k and £50k gross equivalent depending how many you have.
Then you hit 45, the kids hit 18, the tax credits vanish and you are royally stuffed./
The other effect of tax credits has been to massively depress wages, as employers know a significant number of staff get tax credits so only see 27% of every extra pound they earn, so just offer minimum wage and let the employees max out on tax credits.
And of course Panorama are explaining this...or maybe not (to be fair I have turned it off as it was such bollocks). There is only so much of
"I have had 3 kids in past 3 years plus pets, big screen telly, etc, despite being in debt and earning minimum wage...the bastards at Tescos / government should be funding this"
...nonsense.
As soon as they started banding around the poverty stats without the necessary caveats (which are of course the nonsense relative poverty, who even the people who devised the metrics say are being misused), I because extremely suspicious.
You forgot Sky, tattoos, booze and smokes.
And this season´s Premiership football shirts.
I'm racking my brains to think which Jam song that reminds me of.
Saturdays Kids
Their mums and dads smoke Capstan non filters, Wallpaper lives 'cause they all die of cancer,
"Ordinary Boys" by Morrissey describes the same people in less bovver boy way!
These are the real creatures that time has forgot, Not given a thought - its the system - Hate the system - what's the system?
Saturdays kids live in council houses, Wear v-necked shirts and baggy trousers, Drive Cortinas fur trimmed dash boards, Stains on the seats - in the back of course!
Comments
God I work so hard.
The best they do is occasionally pick up western youths who fly into Istanbul and alike and tell them not to go to Syria, before letting them go on their way.
No records kept, no cooperation with western intelligence services, etc.
What they have is responsibility. The nerve to want a career.
Likewise people in the private sector.
Accusing people of favourng the rich, just because you are proposing to increase the allowances for the 40% tax band after years of it being depressed, and then saying that its all the friends of the govt is plain ignorant and pathetic.
And for Mr Senior's benefit - I am far from rich very far.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/06/voters-trust-cameron-osborne-most-with-the-economy-poll-finds?CMP=twt_gu
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29515044
[Good fringe meeting with Nick on animal testing.]
Brisky going Juxtapose.
Desperate times people... desperate times...
However, I should point out that I at least have done pretty well out of the coalition. I got a big bursary to retrain as a teacher (sadly they've cut it again) with the option of a loan to cover all my fees, repayable by income a la a graduate tax, a decent job, a nice house with low council tax, and a very comfortable salary indeed that is still rising even though more slowly than inflation. Of course, I work hard - but bearing in mind I lost my previous job as a result of the crash in 2008, and spent three years out of work, I feel that I do owe the government a favour. The same is true of many in the profession - except teachers tend not to do gratitude.
The favour is that I don't go on about Michael Gove passim ad nauseam, of course...which leaves my vote still up for grabs in May.
* Yes I know technically the question is about how well / how badly they are doing, but I always see these questions really through a focus of how popular they are with the public.
I'm expecting the phone poll next week.
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers
Sources say Michael Howard among Tory names for EU Commissioner Nick Clegg indicated to Cameron he would block #ldconf
I had a betting slip with Michael Howard at 25/1
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers
Sources say Michael Howard among Tory names for EU Commissioner Nick Clegg indicated to Cameron he would block
Must be quite a few teachers, nurse's, etc.. Who voted Lib-Dem in 2010, switched to Labour after the coalition was formed but are now tempted to the Tories by the 40p tax announcement....
Not.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11133172/Lord-Hill-I-will-put-EU-laws-above-Britains-national-interest.html
We've all been there...
"They need people from 7am till 10pm helping out with polling stations and knocking up the vote.
There will be a venue afterwards where you can watch the count and enjoy what will hopefully be a historic evening."
http://www.ukip.org/make_history_with_ukip_this_week
I went door knocking there on Friday, in Frinton... what a beautiful part of town that is
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwv7JXgPxLI
Watch this from 2 minutes to 7 minutes. Beheading, at the very beginning of the conflict (speaking of beheading, not actual graphic content).
Still, it doesn't matter much. Juncker will take any contentious issue out of his hands to go to a non-Brit, as he has with the bank bonus tax. The awarding of the brief to a Brit was just a PR exercise.
Rochester is closer to me (only 2 hours on the train!).
The polls show a plurality of voters wish for us to remain in the EU, and the polls in the past, have shown Ken Clarke is one of the most popular politicians out there.
It´s part of the EU oath.
Some foreign Euro´commissioners ignore it. Ours normally go troppo.
Mr. Socrates, I quite agree.
Hound's had the end of his ear bitten off. Operation overnight. A week or two ago he had blood in his lungs (which thankfully seems to have cleared). Hopefully he'll be fine by morning.
[Oops...playing the betcha gambit again. I'll be in trouble.]
Populus: L 37 C 31 UKIP 15 LD 8 GRN 3
If you think the Conservatives might sneak it I suppose you might buy them, if you think UKIP have it in the bag, sell Labour
Either way I think its free money
Those additional Green votes must be emanating predominantly from Labour. How many marginal seats might they prevent the Reds from winning by taking an additional 2% - 3% of the vote? A handful maybe.
Rogue Poll obviously.
Chortle.
Ed is worse than Kinnock and probably Foot
8:28PM
I am starting to wonder given Ed's reputed 35% policy, which pollster will be first to record Labour back at 29% or lower in the polls.
Flag Quote
EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 95
8:27PM
Tykejohnno said:
Have we had a thread on this yet ;-)
Populus: L 37 C 31 UKIP 15 LD 8 GRN 3
Somewhat unfortunate juxta-positioning of posts just now!
Milleped´s lucky the cops weren´t called.
In any case the Spanish don't let me contact UK bookmaker sites.
Just you personally, Mike?
Hasta la vista.
2014 Green 5%: 2010-Con 1%, 2010-Lab 4%, 2010-LD 11%
2013 Green 3%: 2010-Con 0%, 2010-Lab 0%, 2010-LD 6%
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/t422bin1xy/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-021014.pdf
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/8dx4mlck3u/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-021013.pdf
e.g A couple lost tax credits and now in "poverty" on a debt management plan, despite earning £25k (not a lot, but I don't think most would think that is poverty, especially as they aren't in London). How awful, nasty government.
Why....because in the good times they ran up £26k in debts and were already only just making the repayments.
And of course the downward pressure on wages, don't mention the I word....
It is strange how 1 million Poles have come to the UK and the vast vast majority work incredibly hard and somehow don't hear a word of them being in poverty. If work paid so badly, why would they come here and stay? Germany for instance doesn't have enough young people to fill entry level roles.
I suspect Brighton is the only place in the country where Tories and Kippers will be tactically voting Labour.
Just for future reference, having a vote share spread for these by-election markets is definitely the way forward. I get that they're a little harder to price up than the 25:10:0 Index, but in return you'd get a lot more betting interest.
Anyway, credit to SPIN for getting into the game here. Hopefully you'll be offering a full range of GE markets soon?
Then you hit 45, the kids hit 18, the tax credits vanish and you are royally stuffed./
The other effect of tax credits has been to massively depress wages, as employers know a significant number of staff get tax credits so only see 27% of every extra pound they earn, so just offer minimum wage and let the employees max out on tax credits.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls.html
"Around half of their [Greens] 10,000 new members are estimated by the Green Party to have been former Lib Dem voters "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/11138579/Liberal-Democrat-conference-Seven-reasons-why-the-2015-general-election-will-be-a-five-horse-race.html
"I have had 3 kids in past 3 years plus pets, big screen telly, etc, despite being in debt and earning minimum wage...the bastards at Tescos / government should be funding this"
...nonsense.
As soon as they started banding around the poverty stats without the necessary caveats (which are of course the nonsense relative poverty, who even the people who devised the metrics say are being misused), I because extremely suspicious.
And this season´s Premiership football shirts.
Con 68%
Lab 64%
(LD 24%) !!
Despite Labour polling poorly in 2010, they've still managed to lose a greater proportion of voters than the Tories, despite the presence of UKIP and the fact that swing voters were disproportionately Blue last time.
Even excluding Don't Knows and Won't Votes (which is a dubious thing to do if we're talking about people who did vote last time), it's still even stevens in terms of retention.
In fact, UKIP is not much of a net factor either, with the Tories having lost 14% of their vote to the Purples, as against 11% for Labour. OK, still a net Labour gain (more so as it's a bigger share of a bigger number for the Cons), but it's still pretty tight.
Just as note, another series of incidents has hit their nuclear program in the last 24-48 hours.
Wallpaper lives 'cause they all die of cancer,
Their EU Parliament campaign was running back in February.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/nick-clegg-only-the-liberal-democrats-are-prepared-to-stand-up-for-britains-place-in-europe-9120047.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/janice-atkinson/european-elections-liberal-democrats_b_4530668.html
But who knows? The Greens have reportedly been targeting LDs, so perhaps the credit lies with them? Rather than fallout from the EU Parliament campaign.
Talking of conference, the Mori meeting at the Tory conference had Bob Worcester and Lord Ashcroft in the same room which was an interesting clash of the titans. Wish he had gone into more depth n the Ukip Lib Dems swapping poll positions prediction. Wonder if he would do anything for the site?
Cheers for the information.
The "advisor" is from the left wing Rowntree mob, paid up sponsors of the Lib Dems...
Now why do people think that it is the role of Govt to fund their breeding? if you can only afford 1 kid stop. If you cannot afford to have any then do not have them. I have two, that is expensive enough! (Rant over)
Not given a thought - its the system -
Hate the system - what's the system?
Saturdays kids live in council houses,
Wear v-necked shirts and baggy trousers,
Drive Cortinas fur trimmed dash boards,
Stains on the seats - in the back of course!