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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft’s national poll joins YouGov in having the To

SystemSystem Posts: 11,698
edited October 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft’s national poll joins YouGov in having the Tories ahead after their conference

As ever, I’d caution about reading too much into polling conducted during and in the immediate aftermath of conferences, particularly with the Lord Ashcroft national poll, which has shown more volatility than most other pollsters. However the Blues will be delighted to have another pollster showing them ahead following their conference.

Read the full story here


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  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Rumours Kim Jong-Un has been deposed:

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/10/05/has-north-korea-s-kim-jong-un-been-toppled.html
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,979
    Green vs Lib Dem match market in Heywood could be interesting.
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    Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    O/T, but is it true that UKIP's housing spokesman is a BTL landlord?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,001
    Mr. Socrates, not entirely surprised. There seems to have been a power struggle when he first got the job, and he disappeared (for 'health' reasons) recently.

    Remains to be seen how North Korea will go, but worth mentioning high level talks with South Korea were resumed recently.

    On-topic: Ashcroft's polls always seem a bit bouncy.

    FPT: Mr. Anorak, not seen the video but I have an understanding of what happened. He's stable but critical, reportedly. F1 cars are immensely safe, and it was sheer bad luck. Danger can never be entirely removed from motorsport.

    Mr. T, if they're putting in Apaches presumably a high number of air strikes are taking place as well. I wonder if Iran is poised to invade to try and arrest the ISIS advance.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    It is interesting that Ashcroft shows a fall in Lab rather than a surge in Con.

    The YouGov Con leads were due to a Con surge and a Lab fall.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @TCPoliticalBetting

    'Guido has the pics from the Lib Dems hot date Conference.

    http://order-order.com/2014/10/06/boring-snoring-libdem-conference-picture-special/

    Great photos, not quite a sell-out though but no need to worry about crowd control.

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    currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Seriously what are the Lib Dems doing at their conference, trying to poll below 5%?
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @currystar

    That's after Clegg's speech.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited October 2014
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    O/T, but is it true that UKIP's housing spokesman is a BTL landlord?

    The Mail called him a "nightclub owner" and " claims to be London's most ethical landlord, owning more than 1,000 properties in the capital."

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1217463/Nightclub-owner-tantric-master-Tories-latest-weapon-election.html
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited October 2014
    Betting advice based on these polls...

    Labour in Heywood & Middleton: 1/10 @ Stan James
    Lay Labour Majority [again] 3.15 on Betfair
    Conservatives Most Seats at G.E. 2.32 on Betfair
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    Update

    I've stuck some tweets in from Mike re the National poll.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    Tissue_Price said:

    Betting advice based on these polls...

    Labour in Heywood & Middleton: 1/10 @ Stan James
    Lay Labour Majority [again] 3.15 on Betfair
    Conservatives Most Seats at G.E. 2.32 on Betfair

    I like your thinking.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MSmithsonPB: If the CON leads continue & there further bad news for LAB about fewer 2010 LD switchers then I wonder whether EdM could be in trouble

    We have had lots of threads saying both of these things are impossible...
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,238
    john_zims said:

    @TCPoliticalBetting

    'Guido has the pics from the Lib Dems hot date Conference.

    http://order-order.com/2014/10/06/boring-snoring-libdem-conference-picture-special/

    Great photos, not quite a sell-out though but no need to worry about crowd control.

    Mystifying as to why they need £800k worth of security, unless it's to keep the poor f***ers in.
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    numbercrunchernumbercruncher Posts: 136
    edited October 2014
    By my reckoning, labour's 30% vote share in the latest ashcroft poll is the lowest since ComRes on 17th June 2010

    And some more bad news for the reds in the tables...

    twitter.com/NCruncherUK/status/519144476691152896/photo/1
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    Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    Morris_Dancer said:



    FPT: Mr. Anorak, not seen the video but I have an understanding of what happened. He's stable but critical, reportedly. F1 cars are immensely safe, and it was sheer bad luck. Danger can never be entirely removed from motorsport.

    .

    Danger will always be present but I'm sure there'll be a very thorough review of what happened and changes made to reduce the risk in future races. I'm sure the procedures for how marshals decide when and where lifting equipment is allowed past the barriers will get particular attention.

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Guys, it's an Ashcroft poll. Nothing wrong with Ashcroft polls, of course, but they have been very volatile.

    It's also a conference-season poll.

    Chillax, and wait for the smoke to clear.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    Does anyone really see the lib dems holding their marginal lib/con seats in the South on these figures?

    That has to be close to wipeout territory.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    I guess Kinnock's "we're alright" speech will be joined by Miliband's "I forgot" one, as a key turning point in an election.

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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    @MSmithsonPB: If the CON leads continue & there further bad news for LAB about fewer 2010 LD switchers then I wonder whether EdM could be in trouble
    What would the electorate make of that this late in the day?

    They should have used the loss in the Euros as a pretext to act.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MarkHopkins said:

    I guess Kinnock's "we're alright" speech will be joined by Miliband's "I forgot" one, as a key turning point in an election.

    How can all his tales of the Quiet Bat People he met in the park not have been a winner?
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Think I missed the thread on the Populus poll this morning . Perhaps that is because the figures were nothing like these .
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Theuniondivvie said:

    john_zims said:

    @TCPoliticalBetting

    'Guido has the pics from the Lib Dems hot date Conference.

    http://order-order.com/2014/10/06/boring-snoring-libdem-conference-picture-special/

    Great photos, not quite a sell-out though but no need to worry about crowd control.

    Mystifying as to why they need £800k worth of security, unless it's to keep the poor f***ers in.
    brilliant.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    MarkHopkins said:

    I guess Kinnock's "we're alright" speech will be joined by Miliband's "I forgot" one, as a key turning point in an election.

    Omni shambles speech anyone?
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    TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    Theuniondivvie said:

    john_zims said:

    @TCPoliticalBetting

    'Guido has the pics from the Lib Dems hot date Conference.

    http://order-order.com/2014/10/06/boring-snoring-libdem-conference-picture-special/

    Great photos, not quite a sell-out though but no need to worry about crowd control.

    Mystifying as to why they need £800k worth of security, unless it's to keep the poor f***ers in.
    Quality!
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    The 30% for Labour in this poll is the lowest in Lord Ashcroft's series, and it seems to be mainly due to more 2010 Lib Dems now saying they will vote Green, rather than Labour.

    By contrast, the 32% for the Conservatives does not challenge their highest with the Ashcroft National poll - they've previously had a score of 34% and two scores of 33%.

    What evidence we have from the 2010 general election, and Ashcroft's marginal polls, suggests that potential Green voters are highly predisposed to vote tactically - eg in seats like Oxford West and Abingdon.

    At this stage I'd expect that Green national vote share will appear to massively underperform, but they will hope to do quite well in a few target locations.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    currystar said:

    Seriously what are the Lib Dems doing at their conference, trying to poll below 5%?

    They are doing a lot of p***ing on the Conservatives but forgetting to unzip first. Still they get a temporary warm feeling.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Slackbladder

    'Does anyone really see the lib dems holding their marginal lib/con seats in the South on these figures?'

    Remember what happened in the Euros with a much more friendly voting system,from ten seats to one.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Labour's poll rating of 37% with Populus and 30% with Lord Ashcroft is irreconcilable. Either at least one is a rogue poll or at least one of their methodologies is flawed.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Guys, it's an Ashcroft poll. Nothing wrong with Ashcroft polls, of course, but they have been very volatile.

    It's also a conference-season poll.

    Chillax, and wait for the smoke to clear.

    Indeed, but what it does show is that when the electorate does think politics, they do change their opinion.

    Which is why opinion polls outside of election time can be good mood music, but not maybe a great predictor of what will actually happen.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,979
    antifrank said:

    Labour's poll rating of 37% with Populus and 30% with Lord Ashcroft is irreconcilable. Either at least one is a rogue poll or at least one of their methodologies is flawed.

    A full week of Yougovs coming ahead should give the answer tbh.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    antifrank said:

    Labour's poll rating of 37% with Populus and 30% with Lord Ashcroft is irreconcilable. Either at least one is a rogue poll or at least one of their methodologies is flawed.

    Historically speaking the Ashcroft polls always have had the lowest combined Con and Lab shares.

    But the Con lead here is 2 like YouGov.

    In 2010 others polled 12%. According to Ashcroft others are going to poll 31%. Which seems like an outlier.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited October 2014
    Slackbladder said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Guys, it's an Ashcroft poll. Nothing wrong with Ashcroft polls, of course, but they have been very volatile.

    It's also a conference-season poll.

    Chillax, and wait for the smoke to clear.

    Indeed, but what it does show is that when the electorate does think politics, they do change their opinion.

    Which is why opinion polls outside of election time can be good mood music, but not maybe a great predictor of what will actually happen.
    Not necessarily even that - the Populus poll showed no such effect.

    There might be a small shift to the Conservatives happening at the moment, but it's too early to say if that's a real effect. I'd be wary of over-analysing polls at the moment. IMO we need to see a series of polls after the conference season is over, to see whether there is any real shift from the steady Labour lead of around 3% which we saw in the summer.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Slackbladder said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Guys, it's an Ashcroft poll. Nothing wrong with Ashcroft polls, of course, but they have been very volatile.

    It's also a conference-season poll.

    Chillax, and wait for the smoke to clear.

    Indeed, but what it does show is that when the electorate does think politics, they do change their opinion.

    Which is why opinion polls outside of election time can be good mood music, but not maybe a great predictor of what will actually happen.
    No it shows nothing of the sort , all it shows are that individual polls give contradictory figures .
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    That looks truly desperate. What on Earth made the LDs book such an enormous hall?
    anotherDave said:

    It is interesting that Ashcroft shows a fall in Lab rather than a surge in Con.

    The YouGov Con leads were due to a Con surge and a Lab fall.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014

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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,883
    Afternoon all :)

    Interesting to see a volatile Ashcroft poll showing a Conservative lead getting a thread to itself while bot the H&M poll showing Labour comfortably ahead and the Populus poll showing the Conservatives down from Friday are both consifgned to the margins.

    There's more than a hint that this site is becoming increasingly pro-Conservative in its editorial policy though I'm sure I'll be told that's a mistake.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @MarkSenior

    Are you at the Lib Dem conference?
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    antifrank said:

    Labour's poll rating of 37% with Populus and 30% with Lord Ashcroft is irreconcilable. Either at least one is a rogue poll or at least one of their methodologies is flawed.

    Well, duh.

    As Lord Ashcroft notes, his polls consistently give a lower share of the vote to Lab+Con combined than the online polls. So we know there is a methodological difference, and so it stands to reason that one will be right and the other flawed.

    Also, bearing in mind that the Ashcroft shares are computed on a sample of just 517 people who say they will vote in 2015, and the two polls are actually both consistent with a Labour share of 34% - or bearing in mind the methodological difference - 36% for Populus and 33% for Ashcroft.
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    @Plato

    And where are all their reputed constituency activists? Too far and expensive to travel or given up?
    Plato said:

    That looks truly desperate. What on Earth made the LDs book such an enormous hall?

    anotherDave said:

    It is interesting that Ashcroft shows a fall in Lab rather than a surge in Con.

    The YouGov Con leads were due to a Con surge and a Lab fall.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014

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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    New Lib Dem recruitment drive in places others would overlook?

    http://www.libdemvoice.org/opinion-party-conferences-dont-matter-to-voters-42774.html
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Ooh. Followed you on Twitter and sent a couple on. Hopefully you'll get some more.
    numbercruncher said:

    By my reckoning, labour's 30% vote share in the latest ashcroft poll is the lowest since ComRes on 17th June 2010

    And some more bad news for the reds in the tables...

    twitter.com/NCruncherUK/status/519144476691152896/photo/1

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    edited October 2014
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Interesting to see a volatile Ashcroft poll showing a Conservative lead getting a thread to itself while bot the H&M poll showing Labour comfortably ahead and the Populus poll showing the Conservatives down from Friday are both consifgned to the margins.

    There's more than a hint that this site is becoming increasingly pro-Conservative in its editorial policy though I'm sure I'll be told that's a mistake.

    Odd. You didn't complain on Thursday night when the thread header led with Labour comfortably holding Heywood and Middleton and the first YouGov with the Tories ahead since March 2012 was relegated to the margins.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    On the Thursday morning after Ed Miliband’s self-immolating address to Labour Party conference, a line appeared in a couple of newspapers from an anonymous senior aide. The final draft of the speech had not been a collective effort, they said. Instead, Miliband had spent the previous week closeted away with his former university flatmate Marc Stears, working on the final text.

    That briefing was politically revealing, because it demonstrated the extent to which even members of Miliband’s closest circle were distancing themselves from their principal and his performance. But there was also something strangely poignant about it. The man who had destroyed his own brother in order to secure the ultimate political prize, huddled with his closest friend, revealing how he had begun wandering Hampstead Heath in search of inspiration and affirmation. Perhaps even absolution.

    Today Miliband stands alone.
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100288863/ditching-ed-miliband-will-only-help-if-labour-learns-the-lessons-of-his-tragedy/
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    john_zims said:

    @Slackbladder

    'Does anyone really see the lib dems holding their marginal lib/con seats in the South on these figures?'

    Remember what happened in the Euros with a much more friendly voting system,from ten seats to one.

    FPTP is now more friendly to the Lib Dems than PR, as it encourages people to vote tactically for the Lib Dems to stop the Tories.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @itvnews: 56% of Brits think the Lib Dems have become irrelevant, ComRes/ITV News poll suggests #ldconf http://t.co/Z2abHvdowb http://t.co/Qf9JkBINoP
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    So far 3 pollsters are telling 3 different stories, tonight we will know if yougov sticks to its story.

    Oh and on iphone related news, the company that makes its glass has filed for bankruptcy wiping 1.5$ billion dollars of its value today.

    http://www.thestreet.com/story/12903476/1/gt-advanced-technologies-halted-as-company-files-bankruptcy-protection.html?puc=TSMKTWATCH&cm_ven=TSMKTWATCH
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    What’s behind this year’s buoyant market
    Here’s how a tepid economy and rising interest rates support a strong stock market.

    A very interesting analysis from McKinsey

    http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/corporate_finance/Whats_behind_this_years_buoyant_market?cid=other-eml-alt-mip-mck-oth-1410

    If anyone has difficulty accessing this, let me know and I will email the whole article to TSE.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited October 2014
    An intriguing reverse-ferret from OGH is in the offing. Can it really be less than 7 weeks since this thread?

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/08/21/take-lab-majority-odds-at-2-1-or-longer-this-is-now-a-great-value-bet/
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Indeed, Sir.

    I suspect it's a nasty case of both.
    Financier said:

    @Plato

    And where are all their reputed constituency activists? Too far and expensive to travel or given up?

    Plato said:

    That looks truly desperate. What on Earth made the LDs book such an enormous hall?

    anotherDave said:

    It is interesting that Ashcroft shows a fall in Lab rather than a surge in Con.

    The YouGov Con leads were due to a Con surge and a Lab fall.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014

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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Scott_P said:

    @itvnews: 56% of Brits think the Lib Dems have become irrelevant, ComRes/ITV News poll suggests #ldconf http://t.co/Z2abHvdowb http://t.co/Qf9JkBINoP

    They could be in for a rude awakening if the result of the GE makes the LDs kingmakers. They'd be far from irrelevant then.

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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    "Liberal Democrat president Tim Farron has said Ed Miliband could be a credible prime minister – a day after another senior party colleague warned a coalition with the Labour leader could damage the Lib Dems."
    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/story/44678/
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    john_zims said:

    @MarkSenior
    Are you at the Lib Dem conference?

    If you are please wave at the camera so we can see you.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Body that represents companies that overcharge people for their pensions criticises Lib Dem pension minister who is bringing in a cap on the charges they can levy on their customers:

    http://www.cityam.com/1412567481/lib-dems-told-stop-tinkering-pensions-industry-body

    Good luck with that battle, ABI.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Tissue_Price said:

    An intriguing reverse-ferret from OGH is in the offing.

    Surely not...

    @MSmithsonPB: From the @LordAshcroft poll detail. The killer figures for LAB and EdM. The decline in 2010 LD support http://t.co/5JgulfhDR8
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @SeanT

    I'm not sure that scouring the 'net for the latest bad news from Iraq / Syria is doing much for your mood.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    john_zims said:

    @MarkSenior

    Are you at the Lib Dem conference?


    Have not been to a Lib Dem conference in 25 years except for one in Brighton a few years ago when I was helping out not a delegate .
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Cable's speech today shows why the LDs deserve to be toast. He is the one who is lying about the tories tax policy. He is the one who is saying that there cannot be tax cuts whilst at the same time his party wants to extend the increase in the standard rate tax allowance.

    The whole point of the structural deficit is that it cannot be covered by the ability of the economy to pay, therefore there needs to be cuts. Raising taxes to pay for bloated welfare simply robs Peter to pay Paul and encourages Peter to take his tax paying potential elsewhere. Cable just want to punish the successful and the hard working who have the nerve to take on some responsibility.
    Take teaching; according to the Education Dept ''Leading practitioners can earn up to £65,324 in London and £58,096 outside London, while head teachers can reach a salary of between £42,232 and £114,437.''
    You will find its the same elsewhere in the workplace. What is wrong with raising tax thresholds for these people, and only back in line with inflation where they have been stuck whilst the lowest paid have had theirs massively increased.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    currystar said:

    Seriously what are the Lib Dems doing at their conference, trying to poll below 5%?

    They are doing a lot of p***ing on the Conservatives but forgetting to unzip first. Still they get a temporary warm feeling.
    Bravo.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    "Liberal Democrat president Tim Farron has said Ed Miliband could be a credible prime minister – a day after another senior party colleague warned a coalition with the Labour leader could damage the Lib Dems."
    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/story/44678/

    That tells you all you need to know about Farron's political instincts.

    Delusional.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ISIS are on the outskirts of Baghdad, and the Iraq army is melting away.

    There is a gargantuan crisis of leadership in Iraq. Even as the Barbarians are at the gate, their parliament is squabbling over who should get what post.
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    This is all cover to prevent the outrage being felt by Cameron's insistence on ending human rights in the UK to turn us into Belarus.

    http://www.ier.org.uk/news/camerons-threat-human-rights#.VC18jidfLgU.twitter

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Neil said:

    Body that represents companies that overcharge people for their pensions criticises Lib Dem pension minister who is bringing in a cap on the charges they can levy on their customers

    Err, that's not what they're criticising. And they are dead right on the point they are making.
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Slackbladder said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Guys, it's an Ashcroft poll. Nothing wrong with Ashcroft polls, of course, but they have been very volatile.

    It's also a conference-season poll.

    Chillax, and wait for the smoke to clear.

    Indeed, but what it does show is that when the electorate does think politics, they do change their opinion.

    Which is why opinion polls outside of election time can be good mood music, but not maybe a great predictor of what will actually happen.
    Try telling the feckwit who baxters the yougov poll every bloody night that.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Flightpath said:

    Cable's speech today shows why the LDs deserve to be toast. He is the one who is lying about the tories tax policy. He is the one who is saying that there cannot be tax cuts whilst at the same time his party wants to extend the increase in the standard rate tax allowance.

    The whole point of the structural deficit is that it cannot be covered by the ability of the economy to pay, therefore there needs to be cuts. Raising taxes to pay for bloated welfare simply robs Peter to pay Paul and encourages Peter to take his tax paying potential elsewhere. Cable just want to punish the successful and the hard working who have the nerve to take on some responsibility.
    Take teaching; according to the Education Dept ''Leading practitioners can earn up to £65,324 in London and £58,096 outside London, while head teachers can reach a salary of between £42,232 and £114,437.''
    You will find its the same elsewhere in the workplace. What is wrong with raising tax thresholds for these people, and only back in line with inflation where they have been stuck whilst the lowest paid have had theirs massively increased.

    Oh gawd , another one of Osborne's rich mates who thinks he deserves a tax cut and that the poorest should pay for it .
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Flightpath said:

    Cable's speech today shows why the LDs deserve to be toast. He is the one who is lying about the tories tax policy. He is the one who is saying that there cannot be tax cuts whilst at the same time his party wants to extend the increase in the standard rate tax allowance.
    ......

    He is not aging well at 71, appears to have a tremor and his time in Govt has really aged him. He should retire.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Neil said:

    Body that represents companies that overcharge people for their pensions criticises Lib Dem pension minister who is bringing in a cap on the charges they can levy on their customers

    Err, that's not what they're criticising. And they are dead right on the point they are making.
    Oh, I know they're criticising something else. I just thought the context would be helpful. And there is no objective "right" or "wrong" on the point they are making.

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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,358
    Hello from the LibDem conference. Seems reasonably busy in the fringes - you can't really judge by the main hall. Security is tighter than at Labour - maybe because in Government, but Labour just checked passes, while LibDems are doing airport-style luggage scans. The Tories were worst - no luggage at all!

    My understanding from H&M is that it's going OK for us, though we're wary of last-minute surprises. Interesting that Labour is preferred to UKIP by Tory voters as second choice by 39-21. However, Labour voters if pressed go 37-15 for UKIP rather than Conservatives. UKIP voters split 31% Labour 29% Con.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Heywood-Middleton-poll-Full-tables-Oct-2014.pdf
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,041
    Neil said:

    @SeanT

    I'm not sure that scouring the 'net for the latest bad news from Iraq / Syria is doing much for your mood.

    How long before the Iranians come in?
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    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,436
    MarkSenior said:

    john_zims said:

    @MarkSenior

    Are you at the Lib Dem conference?


    Have not been to a Lib Dem conference in 25 years except for one in Brighton a few years ago when I was helping out not a delegate .
    Am I the only contributor to PB at the conference then?

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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    We haven’t had a combined tally of Con/Lab at 62% for a while – looks very low to me?

    Conference season caveat emptor etc..
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    MarkSenior said:

    Flightpath said:

    Cable's speech today shows why the LDs deserve to be toast. He is the one who is lying about the tories tax policy. He is the one who is saying that there cannot be tax cuts whilst at the same time his party wants to extend the increase in the standard rate tax allowance.

    The whole point of the structural deficit is that it cannot be covered by the ability of the economy to pay, therefore there needs to be cuts. Raising taxes to pay for bloated welfare simply robs Peter to pay Paul and encourages Peter to take his tax paying potential elsewhere. Cable just want to punish the successful and the hard working who have the nerve to take on some responsibility.
    Take teaching; according to the Education Dept ''Leading practitioners can earn up to £65,324 in London and £58,096 outside London, while head teachers can reach a salary of between £42,232 and £114,437.''
    You will find its the same elsewhere in the workplace. What is wrong with raising tax thresholds for these people, and only back in line with inflation where they have been stuck whilst the lowest paid have had theirs massively increased.

    Oh gawd , another one of Osborne's rich mates who thinks he deserves a tax cut and that the poorest should pay for it .
    Could you repost your remarks last Thursday about the 7 point labour lead, and blue tinted glasses?

    Thanks

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    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    MarkSenior said:

    Flightpath said:

    Cable's speech today shows why the LDs deserve to be toast. He is the one who is lying about the tories tax policy. He is the one who is saying that there cannot be tax cuts whilst at the same time his party wants to extend the increase in the standard rate tax allowance.

    The whole point of the structural deficit is that it cannot be covered by the ability of the economy to pay, therefore there needs to be cuts. Raising taxes to pay for bloated welfare simply robs Peter to pay Paul and encourages Peter to take his tax paying potential elsewhere. Cable just want to punish the successful and the hard working who have the nerve to take on some responsibility.
    Take teaching; according to the Education Dept ''Leading practitioners can earn up to £65,324 in London and £58,096 outside London, while head teachers can reach a salary of between £42,232 and £114,437.''
    You will find its the same elsewhere in the workplace. What is wrong with raising tax thresholds for these people, and only back in line with inflation where they have been stuck whilst the lowest paid have had theirs massively increased.

    Oh gawd , another one of Osborne's rich mates who thinks he deserves a tax cut and that the poorest should pay for it .
    I fail to see how someone keeping more of their own money is being paid for by anyone else. Their is a huge moral difference to earning your own income rather than receiving it from someone else.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Teachers are now "the rich". People earning over £42,000 are now the "15%" or "the wealthy"

    That kind of rhetoric will drive some public sector workers into the arms of the Tories.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    Verulamius said:

    MarkSenior said:

    john_zims said:

    @MarkSenior

    Are you at the Lib Dem conference?


    Have not been to a Lib Dem conference in 25 years except for one in Brighton a few years ago when I was helping out not a delegate .
    Am I the only contributor to PB at the conference then?

    No. Corporeal is attending as well.
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    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Flightpath said:

    Cable's speech today shows why the LDs deserve to be toast. He is the one who is lying about the tories tax policy. He is the one who is saying that there cannot be tax cuts whilst at the same time his party wants to extend the increase in the standard rate tax allowance.
    ......

    He is not aging well at 71, appears to have a tremor and his time in Govt has really aged him. He should retire.
    Looks like he is bringing down the average age of those poor confused souls attending the conference.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,289
    Is this one of Gordon's followers, a cack handed phone tosser?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-29510317
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    Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited October 2014
    The worst news for the liberals is surely that 7% for the greens, mostly I suspect 2010 libdems

    I doubt 7% will win the greens a single seat but it would hand a swathe of LD seats to the tories.

    Looks like the Beard and Sandal brigade have defected to the other beardy brigade.
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    edited October 2014
    Any more of these polls then I'll start feeling nervous for the PBer who in an earlier thread today announced he was filling his boots on EdM being in place until the GE at 1/7 on. Still odds on but not at that price.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Were conferences always so silly?

    I think Camo called this right a while ago - twitter is changing the world for the worst.

    Stop the world I want to get off indeed.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Norm said:

    Any more of these polls then I'll start feeling nervous for the PBer who in an earlier thread today announced he was filling his boots on EdM being in place until the GE at 1/7 on. Still odds on but not at that price.

    Don't mess with the serious punter class Norm - they know how to hedge and everything.

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,001
    Mr. Norm, that was Mr. Pulpstar, and I'd still be astounded if Miliband were not Labour leader come the election.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Norm said:

    Any more of these polls then I'll start feeling nervous for the PBer who in an earlier thread today announced he was filling his boots on EdM being in place until the GE at 1/7 on. Still odds on but not at that price.

    The risk on that bet is almost entirely actuarial.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    And they know fancy words.
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    edited October 2014
    MarkHopkins said:

    I guess Kinnock's "we're alright" speech will be joined by Miliband's "I forgot" one, as a key turning point in an election.

    I was in someone else's car the other evening and therefore forced to listen to one of the usual BBC lefty diatribes they describe as a comedy/satire programme.
    Imagine my surprise when two clearly lefty contributors kicked the left in the nuts.
    Firstly one criticised Miliband for his forget me not speech. The killer line being that he had previously built up this 'I may be a geek but I'm not some slick salesman' image... then he ditches it and goes for a slick salesman's no notes speech and fails totally.
    Secondly another really laid into The Mirror and Alex Wickham over the Brooks Newmark story.

    The usual left wing BBC audience totally agreed.

    BTW, The Mirror claimed not to have published the photos of the women they used but the BBC's commentator clearly thought otherwise and she was scathing of the Mirror and Wickham in the way they used photos of women without their permission.
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    I'd be very interested in anyone comes across Barry Williams aka Harry Street who has just been ordered by the courts to a secure environment under section 41.This particular section is rarely used in my experience-it used to known pre 83 as at the pleasure of her majesty.Something badly has gone wrong in the risk assessment system,yet again.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,503
    "Firewall" - Ha. I did point out the fallacies in this a few days ago. And was mocked for it.

    Interesting. All other things being equal, if 30% of the kippers in this poll returned to the Tories then they would have a bigger vote lead than they did in 2010GE.

    Now, that obviously isn't going to happen. But still.. Interesting.
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    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Flightpath said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    I guess Kinnock's "we're alright" speech will be joined by Miliband's "I forgot" one, as a key turning point in an election.

    I was in someone else's car the other evening and therefore forced to listen to one of the usual BBC lefty diatribes they describe as a comedy/satire programme.
    Imagine my surprise when two clearly lefty contributors kicked the left in the nuts.
    Firstly one criticised Miliband for his forget me not speech. The killer line being that he had previously built up this 'I may be a geek but I'm not some slick salesman' image... then he ditches it and goes for a slick salesman's no notes speech and fails totally.
    Secondly another really laid into The Mirror and Alex Wickham over the Brooks Newmark story.

    The usual left wing BBC audience totally agreed.

    BTW, The Mirror claimed not to have published the photos of the women they used but the BBC's commentator clearly thought otherwise and she was scathing of the Mirror and Wickham in the way they used photos of women without their permission.
    I heard the second one, or something like it, and it was very strong stuff.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    NickPalmer said:

    Hello from the LibDem conference. Seems reasonably busy in the fringes - you can't really judge by the main hall. Security is tighter than at Labour - maybe because in Government, but Labour just checked passes, while LibDems are doing airport-style luggage scans. The Tories were worst - no luggage at all!

    My understanding from H&M is that it's going OK for us, though we're wary of last-minute surprises. Interesting that Labour is preferred to UKIP by Tory voters as second choice by 39-21. However, Labour voters if pressed go 37-15 for UKIP rather than Conservatives. UKIP voters split 31% Labour 29% Con.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Heywood-Middleton-poll-Full-tables-Oct-2014.pdf

    Seems like (a) the Conservatives dodged a bullet by defeating AV and (b) the people who simplistically lump UKIP in with the Conservatives are as silly as the people who used to simplistically lump the Lib Dems in with Labour in the national vote shares.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    The worst news for the liberals is surely that 7% for the greens, mostly I suspect 2010 libdems

    I doubt 7% will win the greens a single seat but it would hand a swathe of LD seats to the tories.

    Looks like the Beard and Sandal brigade have defected to the other beardy brigade.

    Hardly , the vote share obtained by the Greens in all local council by elextions from July to date is just 4% , the lib Dem figure is 17% and UKIP 16%
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    O/T, but is it true that UKIP's housing spokesman is a BTL landlord?

    Well it was
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-housing-spokesman-trousering-fortune-3175130
    ''UKIP housing spokesman trousering a fortune renting to migrants on benefits despite party's policies''
    Is he still?

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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    chestnut said:

    Teachers are now "the rich". People earning over £42,000 are now the "15%" or "the wealthy"

    That kind of rhetoric will drive some public sector workers into the arms of the Tories.

    Kinnock's mistake, or one of them, in 1992 was to say that anyone on 25k plus was fair game for tax rises. 25k then is pretty much 42k now. I thought it was pb Tories who never learn.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Could you expand here? I assume he's been a forensic client of somebody?
    volcanopete said:

    I'd be very interested in anyone comes across Barry Williams aka Harry Street who has just been ordered by the courts to a secure environment under section 41.This particular section is rarely used in my experience-it used to known pre 83 as at the pleasure of her majesty.Something badly has gone wrong in the risk assessment system,yet again.

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    TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    I see there's now an Internet campaign to get Martin Brunt, the Sky News reporter who doorstepped the McCann twitter troll, sacked.
    Truly, Cameron was correct in his assessment of twitter.
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    Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    Baxtering that poll gives Labour 16 short of Majority

    Add 0.5% to tories at Labours expense (32.5/29.5) gives Tories 23 short of majority. (21 incl SF)

    Add 1% to tories at Labours expense (33/29) gives Tories 17 short of majority. (15 incl SF)

    Add 1.5 to tories at Labours expense (33.5/28.5) gives Tories 9 short of majority (7 incl SF) which means a supply and confidence with DUPs 8-10 MPs would see them home.

    Add 2.0 to tories at Labours expense (34/28) gives Tories majority of 6 (8 incl SF)

    This really is the tipping point in that tiny changes have disproportionate effects. Plus lots of majorities will be small so local campaigns will count.

    If things stay as they are it looks to me that the biggest impact on the next election result will be:

    * Incumbency factor for sitting Libdem MPs pitted against Tory challengers
    * To what extent anti tory tactical voting of 2010 voters in LD/Tory marginals will unwind from LD to LAB/Green/UKIP.

    With it looking as if Labours challenge is faltering, and similarly, little evidence of Tories eating into 2010 Lab held seats, I reckon the 2015 election will be won or lost in places like Somerton and Frome, Mid Dorset, Westmoreland and West Aberdeen, not the midland Labour/Tory marginals that are usually cited as kingmaker seats and may well see little movement in 2015.


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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    The worst news for the liberals is surely that 7% for the greens, mostly I suspect 2010 libdems

    I doubt 7% will win the greens a single seat but it would hand a swathe of LD seats to the tories.

    Looks like the Beard and Sandal brigade have defected to the other beardy brigade.

    It's plausible, though I wouldn't say likely, that the Greens will gain Norwich South and Bristol West on a national vote share of, say, 2%.

    In 2010, for example, the Green share of the national vote was down a bit, even though they stood in more than one hundred extra seats, and they made great progress by winning Brighton Pavillion.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The Times is reporting that the lady concerned sent 4000 tweets about the McCann's in 10 months.

    Martin Brunt questioning her about it seems perfectly sound journalism to me.
    TwistedFireStopper said:

    I see there's now an Internet campaign to get Martin Brunt, the Sky News reporter who doorstepped the McCann twitter troll, sacked.
    Truly, Cameron was correct in his assessment of twitter.

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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    OblitusSumMe said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Hello from the LibDem conference. Seems reasonably busy in the fringes - you can't really judge by the main hall. Security is tighter than at Labour - maybe because in Government, but Labour just checked passes, while LibDems are doing airport-style luggage scans. The Tories were worst - no luggage at all!

    My understanding from H&M is that it's going OK for us, though we're wary of last-minute surprises. Interesting that Labour is preferred to UKIP by Tory voters as second choice by 39-21. However, Labour voters if pressed go 37-15 for UKIP rather than Conservatives. UKIP voters split 31% Labour 29% Con.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Heywood-Middleton-poll-Full-tables-Oct-2014.pdf

    Seems like (a) the Conservatives dodged a bullet by defeating AV and (b) the people who simplistically lump UKIP in with the Conservatives are as silly as the people who used to simplistically lump the Lib Dems in with Labour in the national vote shares.
    Not really. This is a left-wing seat remember, so many more UKIP will break Labour than they would in other parts of the country.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited October 2014
    Ishmael_X said:

    chestnut said:

    Teachers are now "the rich". People earning over £42,000 are now the "15%" or "the wealthy"

    That kind of rhetoric will drive some public sector workers into the arms of the Tories.

    Kinnock's mistake, or one of them, in 1992 was to say that anyone on 25k plus was fair game for tax rises. 25k then is pretty much 42k now. I thought it was pb Tories who never learn.
    Using the Bank of England Inflation Calculator and £25k in 1992 equates to £45k now* - which makes your point a wee bit stronger.

    * Now = 2013
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    audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Another interesting poll. I suspect further LD's will return home this week too so things could get worse for Labour.

    We still have Thursday to contend with. Were it not for that I'd predict a post-conference shake out of Conservative lead but we need to see how Carswelll's UKIP victory will play out.

    Still, Cameron and Conservatives will be pleased that their message is starting to work.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Interesting to see a volatile Ashcroft poll showing a Conservative lead getting a thread to itself while bot the H&M poll showing Labour comfortably ahead and the Populus poll showing the Conservatives down from Friday are both consifgned to the margins.

    There's more than a hint that this site is becoming increasingly pro-Conservative in its editorial policy though I'm sure I'll be told that's a mistake.

    I do not think you have made a mistake with TSE.
    If you had just come in from work as I have , most people would not be aware of the Populus poll, and I am sure that is why it was consigned to the margins by TSE.
This discussion has been closed.