politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What the Rochester poll would look like without the 2010 no
Comments
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SimonStClare/MD That is good news0
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LogicalSong In a word, No0
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JBriskin Perhaps we could have 'Come Dine with the LD conference delegates' as there seem to only be about 60
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Morning cloud?Luckyguy1983 said:
I see recent information about Heath passed you by.TheScreamingEagles said:
Shame Ted Heath is no longer about.FrankBooth said:
I'd happily vote for an asexual virgin if they had the right ideas.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's an academic piece that shows every time Bill Clinton was fellated his ratings went up as well something else.FrankBooth said:I can't say I care whether or not Tony managed 5 times a night, but I'm amazed he thought we'd want to know or that such virility would be a vote winner.
We used to have the French system.
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Floater,
"some of them are right bigots.... ask Gordon."
Just come back from an afternoon "do" for someone's birthday. An excellent comedian, somewhere between Bobby Ball and Jim Davidson. But a bit ruder and more racist. Roger would have had a fit.
But the hundred or so present loved it, and most are Northern Labour voters.0 -
Ha ha - the hall looked just about as quiet as the photos suggested indeed.HYUFD said:JBriskin Perhaps we could have 'Come Dine with the LD conference delegates' as there seem to only be about 6
It felt a bit social workery though - even by LD standards.
I've sure the Mon-Fri politicos will pick things up.
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Agreed, excellent tip with some sharp reasoning.peter_from_putney said:
This was a truly magnificent winner from stjohn - in fact one of the very best tips of the year to date on PB.com. He must feel very disappointed that there is such little appreciation for having come up with such a stonking good tip on what is after all supposed to be a betting site.stjohn said:"STFOHN", (St.John's, The Flat, Occasional Horseracing Nod), is backing Treve to win The Arc.
She was an extremely impressive winner last year and has been "wrong" in her subsequent three races. So there are huge question marks over her and there's no point backing her each way. A repeat win in this race has always been the plan and her trainer feels she is on the way back. She would prefer softer ground but she has won on good ground. She has a nice draw from trap 3.
She will probably run a stinker but if she is back to close to her best she could win comfortably. At 14/1 she looks worth a punt to me.
I'm on!
Treve to win The Arc at 14/1 Corals
He probably wonders, as do I, why bother. There isn't even a TOTY competition any more where one could expect to receive a few plaudits.
An added bonus will be that stjohn won't bore on about it endlessly afterwards.0 -
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Never seems to be a shortage of priests at The Gold Cup.JBriskin said:[11/4 Pope Francis]
Are Catholics allowed to gamble? Genuine question.
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2007/mar/11/horseracing.cheltenhamfestival10 -
JBriskin Yes, the lobbyist/aide and PR crowd will bump up numbers no doubt0
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meanwhile, the labour party remains overtly classist and this is apparently deemed acceptable by the media.antifrank said:
On the plus side, however, they aren't xenophobic reactionaries who think that it's acceptable to leave a senior elected official in place who casually refers to Ting Tongs.
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An outstanding piece of tipping from somebody who used to be one of the shrewdest punters on this Site.peter_from_putney said:
This was a truly magnificent winner from stjohn - in fact one of the very best tips of the year to date on PB.com. He must feel very disappointed that there is such little appreciation for having come up with such a stonking good tip on what is after all supposed to be a betting site.stjohn said:"STFOHN", (St.John's, The Flat, Occasional Horseracing Nod), is backing Treve to win The Arc.
She was an extremely impressive winner last year and has been "wrong" in her subsequent three races. So there are huge question marks over her and there's no point backing her each way. A repeat win in this race has always been the plan and her trainer feels she is on the way back. She would prefer softer ground but she has won on good ground. She has a nice draw from trap 3.
She will probably run a stinker but if she is back to close to her best she could win comfortably. At 14/1 she looks worth a punt to me.
I'm on!
Treve to win The Arc at 14/1 Corals
He probably wonders, as do I, why bother. There isn't even a TOTY competition any more where one could expect to receive a few plaudits.
Sadly, Peter, he is one of a number of shrewdies who no longer bother to post, presumably because they are drowned out by the cacophony of those here only to talk up their own team.
They are sadly missed.
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Peter, I agree , not a lot of decent betting tips/talk here now , just constant whining about which set of turnips are the worst.Peter_the_Punter said:
An outstanding piece of tipping from somebody who used to be one of the shrewdest punters on this Site.peter_from_putney said:
This was a truly magnificent winner from stjohn - in fact one of the very best tips of the year to date on PB.com. He must feel very disappointed that there is such little appreciation for having come up with such a stonking good tip on what is after all supposed to be a betting site.stjohn said:"STFOHN", (St.John's, The Flat, Occasional Horseracing Nod), is backing Treve to win The Arc.
She was an extremely impressive winner last year and has been "wrong" in her subsequent three races. So there are huge question marks over her and there's no point backing her each way. A repeat win in this race has always been the plan and her trainer feels she is on the way back. She would prefer softer ground but she has won on good ground. She has a nice draw from trap 3.
She will probably run a stinker but if she is back to close to her best she could win comfortably. At 14/1 she looks worth a punt to me.
I'm on!
Treve to win The Arc at 14/1 Corals
He probably wonders, as do I, why bother. There isn't even a TOTY competition any more where one could expect to receive a few plaudits.
Sadly, Peter, he is one of a number of shrewdies who no longer bother to post, presumably because they are drowned out by the cacophony of those here only to talk up their own team.
They are sadly missed.0 -
I must say I rather approve of the idea that you can cheat and swindle a your mates out of the odd quid, but you shouldn't go beyond that.numbertwelve said:
So a little bit of cheating is OK?RodCrosby said:
Yes, even on the Pope. Since 1918, when the Benedict XV abrogated all Canon Law including Gregory XIV's bull from 1591 which had held the penalty for betting on the conclave or the duration of a papacy was excommunication.JBriskin said:[11/4 Pope Francis]
Are Catholics allowed to gamble? Genuine question.
Gambling for Catholics is now governed by the Catechism which states:-
"2413 Games of chance (card games, etc.) or wagers are not in themselves contrary to justice. They become morally unacceptable when they deprive someone of what is necessary to provide for his needs and those of others. the passion for gambling risks becoming an enslavement. Unfair wagers and cheating at games constitute grave matter, unless the damage inflicted is so slight that the one who suffers it cannot reasonably consider it significant."
Looking up the Catechisms also reveals
2423 Any system in which social relationships are determined entirely by economic factors is contrary to the nature of the human person and his acts
Ho hum.
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No, I wouldn't describe that as firm information. Though I don't dismiss it out of hand. Was there not something about the Whips Office having to ask Heath to cool off on his nocturnal forays to avoid bringing the party into disrepute?Omnium said:
Morning cloud?Luckyguy1983 said:
I see recent information about Heath passed you by.TheScreamingEagles said:
Shame Ted Heath is no longer about.FrankBooth said:
I'd happily vote for an asexual virgin if they had the right ideas.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's an academic piece that shows every time Bill Clinton was fellated his ratings went up as well something else.FrankBooth said:I can't say I care whether or not Tony managed 5 times a night, but I'm amazed he thought we'd want to know or that such virility would be a vote winner.
We used to have the French system.
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I'm one of those people you're complaining about, but I am open to learning more about the betting side. Why don't you take matters into your own hands and organise this Tip competition?Peter_the_Punter said:
An outstanding piece of tipping from somebody who used to be one of the shrewdest punters on this Site.peter_from_putney said:
This was a truly magnificent winner from stjohn - in fact one of the very best tips of the year to date on PB.com. He must feel very disappointed that there is such little appreciation for having come up with such a stonking good tip on what is after all supposed to be a betting site.stjohn said:"STFOHN", (St.John's, The Flat, Occasional Horseracing Nod), is backing Treve to win The Arc.
She was an extremely impressive winner last year and has been "wrong" in her subsequent three races. So there are huge question marks over her and there's no point backing her each way. A repeat win in this race has always been the plan and her trainer feels she is on the way back. She would prefer softer ground but she has won on good ground. She has a nice draw from trap 3.
She will probably run a stinker but if she is back to close to her best she could win comfortably. At 14/1 she looks worth a punt to me.
I'm on!
Treve to win The Arc at 14/1 Corals
He probably wonders, as do I, why bother. There isn't even a TOTY competition any more where one could expect to receive a few plaudits.
Sadly, Peter, he is one of a number of shrewdies who no longer bother to post, presumably because they are drowned out by the cacophony of those here only to talk up their own team.
They are sadly missed.
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Youth unemployment in the Eurozone is 23%:
http://www.businessinsider.com/europes-youth-unemployment-at-233-2014-9
Eurocrisis over etc, etc...0 -
"An outstanding piece of tipping from somebody who used to be one of the shrewdest punters on this Site."
Hear, hear ..... it's a great shame that over the years PB has lost a good number of his ilk.
In fact the site's original raison d'être scarcely exists any more and I know some of the old timers like your good self PtP very much regret that, as do I.0 -
You're already in the Tip competition Lucky.
Just because you're a laugh a minute High politics guru who knows exactly how the Ukraine fuck up happened doesn't mean you're not in it.0 -
Not sure when you started posting, Malcolm, but PfP and I go back to the Site's early days, and whilst it was always a robust mixture of politics and betting (and indeed other oddities), there's no doubt that it had a far greater proportion of serious punters back then. In fact the Site's reputation was founded on the unique feature that the commentary amongst punters was driven more by the prospect of making a view quid than just talking one's team up.malcolmg said:
Peter, I agree , not a lot of decent betting tips/talk here now , just constant whining about which set of turnips are the worst.Peter_the_Punter said:
An outstanding piece of tipping from somebody who used to be one of the shrewdest punters on this Site.peter_from_putney said:
This was a truly magnificent winner from stjohn - in fact one of the very best tips of the year to date on PB.com. He must feel very disappointed that there is such little appreciation for having come up with such a stonking good tip on what is after all supposed to be a betting site.stjohn said:"STFOHN", (St.John's, The Flat, Occasional Horseracing Nod), is backing Treve to win The Arc.
She was an extremely impressive winner last year and has been "wrong" in her subsequent three races. So there are huge question marks over her and there's no point backing her each way. A repeat win in this race has always been the plan and her trainer feels she is on the way back. She would prefer softer ground but she has won on good ground. She has a nice draw from trap 3.
She will probably run a stinker but if she is back to close to her best she could win comfortably. At 14/1 she looks worth a punt to me.
I'm on!
Treve to win The Arc at 14/1 Corals
He probably wonders, as do I, why bother. There isn't even a TOTY competition any more where one could expect to receive a few plaudits.
Sadly, Peter, he is one of a number of shrewdies who no longer bother to post, presumably because they are drowned out by the cacophony of those here only to talk up their own team.
They are sadly missed.
In short, bullsh*tters tended to get short shrift, and the quality of political debate was improved accordingly.
Nowadays punters have become something of an endangered species on here. I even get the impression that some resent our interjections, which interrupt the jolly flow of partisan praise and prejudiced vitriol.
Things generally improve a bit at election times, when there are more active markets. This is particularly true of American Elections, where fewer posters have a dog in the fight, so the commentary tends to be less tediously partisan. But if you really want to see PB at its best, you have to dip into the archives.
I'm glad I was there at the time.
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Difficult to believe that Labour don't have plans for a hung parliament. I'm not expecting them to admit to it but surely they should plan for all eventualities rather than hoping 'something will turn up'.HYUFD said:LogicalSong In a word, No
It's the sort of thing they'll need to do if in government.0 -
Mr. Punter, given my recent form I imagine a lower number of tips from me might be welcomed
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I am particularly interested in the horses and there was a lot more on that when I joined, you were on regular among others like StJohn. Rare to see anything nowadays.Peter_the_Punter said:malcolmg said:
Peter, I agree , not a lot of decent betting tips/talk here now , just constant whining about which set of turnips are the worst.Peter_the_Punter said:
An outstanding piece of tipping from somebody who used to be one of the shrewdest punters on this Site.peter_from_putney said:
This was a truly magnificent winner from stjohn - in fact one of the very best tips of the year to date on PB.com. He must feel very disappointed that there is such little appreciation for having come up with such a stonking good tip on what is after all supposed to be a betting site.stjohn said:"STFOHN", (St.John's, The Flat, Occasional Horseracing Nod), is backing Treve to win The Arc.
She was an extremely impressive winner last year and has been "wrong" in her subsequent three races. So there are huge question marks over her and there's no point backing her each way. A repeat win in this race has always been the plan and her trainer feels she is on the way back. She would prefer softer ground but she has won on good ground. She has a nice draw from trap 3.
She will probably run a stinker but if she is back to close to her best she could win comfortably. At 14/1 she looks worth a punt to me.
I'm on!
Treve to win The Arc at 14/1 Corals
He probably wonders, as do I, why bother. There isn't even a TOTY competition any more where one could expect to receive a few plaudits.
Sadly, Peter, he is one of a number of shrewdies who no longer bother to post, presumably because they are drowned out by the cacophony of those here only to talk up their own team.
They are sadly missed.
Nowadays punters have become something of an endangered species on here. I even get the impression that some resent our interjections, which interrupt the jolly flow of partisan praise and prejudiced vitriol.
Things generally improve a bit at election times, when there are more active markets. This is particularly true of American Elections, where fewer posters have a dog in the fight, so the commentary tends to be less tediously partisan. But if you really want to see PB at its best, you have to dip into the archives.
I'm glad I was there at the time.0 -
Brilliant tip in a really difficult race, well done.Peter_the_Punter said:
An outstanding piece of tipping from somebody who used to be one of the shrewdest punters on this Site.peter_from_putney said:
This was a truly magnificent winner from stjohn - in fact one of the very best tips of the year to date on PB.com. He must feel very disappointed that there is such little appreciation for having come up with such a stonking good tip on what is after all supposed to be a betting site.stjohn said:"STFOHN", (St.John's, The Flat, Occasional Horseracing Nod), is backing Treve to win The Arc.
She was an extremely impressive winner last year and has been "wrong" in her subsequent three races. So there are huge question marks over her and there's no point backing her each way. A repeat win in this race has always been the plan and her trainer feels she is on the way back. She would prefer softer ground but she has won on good ground. She has a nice draw from trap 3.
She will probably run a stinker but if she is back to close to her best she could win comfortably. At 14/1 she looks worth a punt to me.
I'm on!
Treve to win The Arc at 14/1 Corals
He probably wonders, as do I, why bother. There isn't even a TOTY competition any more where one could expect to receive a few plaudits.
Sadly, Peter, he is one of a number of shrewdies who no longer bother to post, presumably because they are drowned out by the cacophony of those here only to talk up their own team.
They are sadly missed.0 -
""STFOHN", (St.John's, The Flat, Occasional Horseracing Nod), is backing Treve to win The Arc."
Good to see you back to your glorious best StJohn. You can certainly pick a filly.
And as has been said many times upthread congratulations. You've been missed.0 -
Absolute nonsense, Morris.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Punter, given my recent form I imagine a lower number of tips from me might be welcomed
I suspect you are fishing for compliments but I'll bite. It's always been one of the Site's strengths that some posters had a betting specialism apart from politics - racing, football, cycling, and of course, Formula 1.
It will be a sad day when you stop putting your suggestions up, and if they not always as successful as one would like, you can always take a leaf out of PfP's book and tell people to DYOR.0 -
Mr. Punter, on a serious note, I've gotten red results in about 5/6 of the last races. Fortunately that positive race was my best for over a year, but it's still not a great record.
I just hope Rosberg can take the title. I'm green either way, but getting a 24/1 shot right would be nice.0 -
Agreed, and many thanks to stjohn for posting it. In the absence of time for any research on the race I followed in a double tip posted here on PB of Avenir Certain and Chicquita. I'd like to thank whoever posted that too. Despite not winning they provided me with some action at the race that I wouldn't have otherwise had - so I'm grateful.peter_from_putney said:
This was a truly magnificent winner from stjohn - in fact one of the very best tips of the year to date on PB.com. He must feel very disappointed that there is such little appreciation for having come up with such a stonking good tip on what is after all supposed to be a betting site.stjohn said:"STFOHN", (St.John's, The Flat, Occasional Horseracing Nod), is backing Treve to win The Arc.
She was an extremely impressive winner last year and has been "wrong" in her subsequent three races. So there are huge question marks over her and there's no point backing her each way. A repeat win in this race has always been the plan and her trainer feels she is on the way back. She would prefer softer ground but she has won on good ground. She has a nice draw from trap 3.
She will probably run a stinker but if she is back to close to her best she could win comfortably. At 14/1 she looks worth a punt to me.
I'm on!
Treve to win The Arc at 14/1 Corals
He probably wonders, as do I, why bother. There isn't even a TOTY competition any more where one could expect to receive a few plaudits.
Whilst politics brings out the partisan in us, other sports don't. Which is why I always look keenly for the racing tips, the US sports, TSE's football ideas and Mr Dancer's motor racing knowledge (and his tennis tips are great to bet against!). The occasional mutterings that they all belong elsewhere should be ignored.0 -
@Socrates: Those figures really are scary. Clearly with youth unemployment there's an element that can be addressed by the Tebbit solution, but I wonder if we make enough bikes for that to happen anyway.
I know it's a horrible thing to say, but there is no way a young person should be able to not work. We're too soft.
It's all very well to think about bashing the rich for the benefit of the poor, but if you flatten the economic benefits of hard work out then you will be certain to achieve what we see now.
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The latest opinion poll in Spain indicates a sharp swing to the left, with the Socialists in the lead and the anarcho-leftist Podemos just behind the governing Partido Popular, whose support has collapsed. The Communists are in 4th. If the general election - which is due next year, I believe - delivers a result close to this then we will see the situation in Catalonia rapidly calm down.
http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/10/04/media/1412442375_992660.html0 -
Mr. M, you bounder, you cad!
Which handsome young morris dancer tipped Murray at 8/1 to win Olympic gold?0 -
Lewis was rawking it today - should still be close though.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Punter, on a serious note, I've gotten red results in about 5/6 of the last races. Fortunately that positive race was my best for over a year, but it's still not a great record.
I just hope Rosberg can take the title. I'm green either way, but getting a 24/1 shot right would be nice.
I can't bet anymore this season - I'm not calling third between Vettal, Ricciardo, Alonso, Bottas (I don't think Massa got much left this season)
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I haven't forgotten taking football tips from you on here Malcolm (three tips in one post) and buying a bottle of excellent scotch on the winnings!malcolmg said:
I am particularly interested in the horses and there was a lot more on that when I joined, you were on regular among others like StJohn. Rare to see anything nowadays.Peter_the_Punter said:malcolmg said:
Peter, I agree , not a lot of decent betting tips/talk here now , just constant whining about which set of turnips are the worst.Peter_the_Punter said:
An outstanding piece of tipping from somebody who used to be one of the shrewdest punters on this Site.peter_from_putney said:
This was a truly magnificent winner from stjohn - in fact one of the very best tips of the year to date on PB.com. He must feel very disappointed that there is such little appreciation for having come up with such a stonking good tip on what is after all supposed to be a betting site.stjohn said:"STFOHN", (St.John's, The Flat, Occasional Horseracing Nod), is backing Treve to win The Arc.
She was an extremely impressive winner last year and has been "wrong" in her subsequent three races. So there are huge question marks over her and there's no point backing her each way. A repeat win in this race has always been the plan and her trainer feels she is on the way back. She would prefer softer ground but she has won on good ground. She has a nice draw from trap 3.
She will probably run a stinker but if she is back to close to her best she could win comfortably. At 14/1 she looks worth a punt to me.
I'm on!
Treve to win The Arc at 14/1 Corals
He probably wonders, as do I, why bother. There isn't even a TOTY competition any more where one could expect to receive a few plaudits.
Sadly, Peter, he is one of a number of shrewdies who no longer bother to post, presumably because they are drowned out by the cacophony of those here only to talk up their own team.
They are sadly missed.
Nowadays punters have become something of an endangered species on here. I even get the impression that some resent our interjections, which interrupt the jolly flow of partisan praise and prejudiced vitriol.
Things generally improve a bit at election times, when there are more active markets. This is particularly true of American Elections, where fewer posters have a dog in the fight, so the commentary tends to be less tediously partisan. But if you really want to see PB at its best, you have to dip into the archives.
I'm glad I was there at the time.0 -
People need to wake up to the fact that the Eurocrisis is worst than the original financial crisis. The latter caused a massive recession, but the former has caused a massive depression. It will be another decade before some of these countries approach normality. In some nations a third or so of this generation will reach 30 without ever getting a job. Can you imagine what that does to the democratic fabric of a society? The architects of European integration have claimed that it causes peace, democracy and prosperity. Actually, it has done the opposite.Omnium said:@Socrates: Those figures really are scary. Clearly with youth unemployment there's an element that can be addressed by the Tebbit solution, but I wonder if we make enough bikes for that to happen anyway.
I know it's a horrible thing to say, but there is no way a young person should be able to not work. We're too soft.
It's all very well to think about bashing the rich for the benefit of the poor, but if you flatten the economic benefits of hard work out then you will be certain to achieve what we see now.0 -
I am particularly interested in the horses and there was a lot more on that when I joined, you were on regular among others like StJohn. Rare to see anything nowadays.malcolmg said:
I am particularly interested in the horses and there was a lot more on that when I joined, you were on regular among others like StJohn. Rare to see anything nowadays.Peter_the_Punter said:malcolmg said:
Peter, I agree , not a lot of decent betting tips/talk here now , just constant whining about which set of turnips are the worst.Peter_the_Punter said:
They are sadly missed.peter_from_putney said:stjohn said:"STFOHN", (St.John's, The Flat, Occasional Horseracing Nod), is backing Treve to win The Arc.
She was an extremely impressive winner last year and has been "wrong" in her subsequent three races. So there are huge question marks over her and there's no point backing her each way. A repeat win in this race has always been the plan and her trainer feels she is on the way back. She would prefer softer ground but she has won on good ground. She has a nice draw from trap 3.
She will probably run a stinker but if she is back to close to her best she could win comfortably. At 14/1 she looks worth a punt to me.
I'm on!
Treve to win The Arc at 14/1 Corals
Nowadays punters have become something of an endangered species on here. I even get the impression that some resent our interjections, which interrupt the jolly flow of partisan praise and prejudiced vitriol.
Things generally improve a bit at election times, when there are more active markets. This is particularly true of American Elections, where fewer posters have a dog in the fight, so the commentary tends to be less tediously partisan. But if you really want to see PB at its best, you have to dip into the archives.
I'm glad I was there at the time.
**************************************************************
It's a tricky business putting up horseracing bets on Site, Malcolm.
I back the horses almost every day but like any other serious punter, I have losing runs, sometimes lasting as much as six months. I battle through them because I know in the long run I will come out ahead but I can't expect occasional fun punters here to show the same persistence and it bothered me sometimes that people who don't understand the betting biz sufficiently might take my tips too seriously and lose more than they can spare. So I stopped.
But if I come up with anything seriously warm I'll consider putting it up, for the few who might still be interested.
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Mr. Socrates, think you missed off a significant bit of info there.
The eurozone crisis is not resolved. More than that, the eurocrat morons are trying to increase integration on banking and fiscal policy (more progress with the former, it must be said) which will make the final derailment of the eurotrain all the more catastrophic.0 -
Now now, Mr Dancer ... no need to get so defensive! *grin*Morris_Dancer said:Mr. M, you bounder, you cad!
Which handsome young morris dancer tipped Murray at 8/1 to win Olympic gold?
I am sure that if you publish a full list of your tennis tips with the results then we'll be suitably impressed. As a distinguished writer you will doubtless already have enough red ink to hand.
*saunters away, whistling*0 -
You wonder how they would go about that seeing as they don't currently have any border between their territory and Iran. Either they would have to take out the Kurdistan region or they would have to take enough Iraqi Gvt territory (and probably Baghdad) to form a corridor to Iran. Can't see either happening when they are facing airstrikes. And if they did manage that, they would have little chance of success (bearing in mind what happened in the Iran-Iraq war)HYUFD said:ISIS prepares for war with Iran and urges its supporters to steal Iran's nuclear secrets
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/world_news/Middle_East/article1467470.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_10_050 -
Are the Catalans leftys then? I thought their big gripe was that they are subsidising poorer regions of Spain...SouthamObserver said:The latest opinion poll in Spain indicates a sharp swing to the left, with the Socialists in the lead and the anarcho-leftist Podemos just behind the governing Partido Popular, whose support has collapsed. The Communists are in 4th. If the general election - which is due next year, I believe - delivers a result close to this then we will see the situation in Catalonia rapidly calm down.
http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/10/04/media/1412442375_992660.html0 -
Labour will have little to do in this by election apart from the usual adoption meetings etc.
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GeoffM
"Whilst politics brings out the partisan in us, other sports don't. "
Actually, I don't think that's true.
I can think of plenty of examples in horseracing, like for example the late great One Man. It was a beautiful grey and the best jumper of a fence I ever saw. At distances between two and three miles, it was supreme. But it couldn't get a yard beyond three miles, so when it ran in the Gold Cup (3m 2f) it had literally no chance. Yet it was sent off 6/4 favorite.
It was just that people loved it so much they wanted to believe it could do what everything in the form book said it couldn't. It was all just sheer partisan punting. No other explanation will do.0 -
This has nothing to do with my current holiday in Espana.SouthamObserver said:The latest opinion poll in Spain indicates a sharp swing to the left, with the Socialists in the lead and the anarcho-leftist Podemos just behind the governing Partido Popular, whose support has collapsed. The Communists are in 4th. If the general election - which is due next year, I believe - delivers a result close to this then we will see the situation in Catalonia rapidly calm down.
http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/10/04/media/1412442375_992660.html
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The Euro will not de-rail anywhere. That was Salmond's biggest mistake. He decided jibes about Greece etc. will be difficult to deal with.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Socrates, think you missed off a significant bit of info there.
The eurozone crisis is not resolved. More than that, the eurocrat morons are trying to increase integration on banking and fiscal policy (more progress with the former, it must be said) which will make the final derailment of the eurotrain all the more catastrophic.
The fastest growing economy in Europe is Ireland.0 -
Our membership of the European Union is merely a chain to a sinking corpse. We need to start looking for lifefloats elsewhere, and we can only do that by leaving the EU and signing FTAs with the rest of the world. It would be wise for us to do this before some of these emerging markets are mature, as the opportunity is now, but our leaders are stupidly short-termist.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Socrates, think you missed off a significant bit of info there.
The eurozone crisis is not resolved. More than that, the eurocrat morons are trying to increase integration on banking and fiscal policy (more progress with the former, it must be said) which will make the final derailment of the eurotrain all the more catastrophic.0 -
Catalans are Catalans. The rhetoric of any independence movement will inevitably seem leftish as they're proclaiming an all-for-one mentality, An independent Catalonia would though be rather LD in British terms (as I see it).Garethofthevale said:
Are the Catalans leftys then? I thought their big gripe was that they are subsidising poorer regions of Spain...SouthamObserver said:The latest opinion poll in Spain indicates a sharp swing to the left, with the Socialists in the lead and the anarcho-leftist Podemos just behind the governing Partido Popular, whose support has collapsed. The Communists are in 4th. If the general election - which is due next year, I believe - delivers a result close to this then we will see the situation in Catalonia rapidly calm down.
http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/10/04/media/1412442375_992660.html
0 -
You bet a 24/1 winner would be nice.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Punter, on a serious note, I've gotten red results in about 5/6 of the last races. Fortunately that positive race was my best for over a year, but it's still not a great record.
I just hope Rosberg can take the title. I'm green either way, but getting a 24/1 shot right would be nice.
Can't remember the last time I backed a winner at those odds. Well done.
0 -
I was like that with Tingle Creek, I loved that horsePeter_the_Punter said:GeoffM
"Whilst politics brings out the partisan in us, other sports don't. "
Actually, I don't think that's true.
I can think of plenty of examples in horseracing, like for example the late great One Man. It was a beautiful grey and the best jumper of a fence I ever saw. At distances between two and three miles, it was supreme. But it couldn't get a yard beyond three miles, so when it ran in the Gold Cup (3m 2f) it had literally no chance. Yet it was sent off 6/4 favorite.
It was just that people loved it so much they wanted to believe it could do what everything in the form book said it couldn't. It was all just sheer partisan punting. No other explanation will do.0 -
Shouldn't the thread be about Man United, Di Maria De Gea and Falcao ?0
-
CD13
"just come back from an afternoon "do" for someone's birthday. An excellent comedian, somewhere between Bobby Ball and Jim Davidson. But a bit ruder and more racist. Roger would have had a fit"
Just heard a quip from Charlie Kennedy that Paddy Ashdown's message on his answerphone says "Please speak after the high moral tone".0 -
Well of course, PfP, but we better not bang on about it too much or we'll be pigeonholed as Grumpy Old Men!peter_from_putney said:"An outstanding piece of tipping from somebody who used to be one of the shrewdest punters on this Site."
Hear, hear ..... it's a great shame that over the years PB has lost a good number of his ilk.
In fact the site's original raison d'être scarcely exists any more and I know some of the old timers like your good self PtP very much regret that, as do I.
0 -
-
No actual rabble-rousing then Mike? I hope you at least raise a cheeky eyebrow in salute to what might have been.MikeSmithson said:
This has nothing to do with my current holiday in Espana.SouthamObserver said:The latest opinion poll in Spain indicates a sharp swing to the left, with the Socialists in the lead and the anarcho-leftist Podemos just behind the governing Partido Popular, whose support has collapsed. The Communists are in 4th. If the general election - which is due next year, I believe - delivers a result close to this then we will see the situation in Catalonia rapidly calm down.
http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/10/04/media/1412442375_992660.html
0 -
Coalition not being austere enough then or can't we read much into a selected sample of one?surbiton said:
The fastest growing economy in Europe is Ireland.0 -
Mr. M, to be fair, my tennis tips are patchier than a pirate convention.
Mr. Socrates, indeed they are. Alas.
Mr. Punter, last time I came close was either the Strictly Come Dancing where the BBC gerrymandered their own bloody rules to let Tom Chambers through, or a certain bet on Button in 2009.0 -
That's sweet, Lucky, but if you check the archives you'll find that I (and others) have written numerous betting thread-articles over the years.Luckyguy1983 said:
I'm one of those people you're complaining about, but I am open to learning more about the betting side. Why don't you take matters into your own hands and organise this Tip competition?Peter_the_Punter said:
An outstanding piece of tipping from somebody who used to be one of the shrewdest punters on this Site.peter_from_putney said:
This was a truly magnificent winner from stjohn - in fact one of the very best tips of the year to date on PB.com. He must feel very disappointed that there is such little appreciation for having come up with such a stonking good tip on what is after all supposed to be a betting site.stjohn said:"STFOHN", (St.John's, The Flat, Occasional Horseracing Nod), is backing Treve to win The Arc.
She was an extremely impressive winner last year and has been "wrong" in her subsequent three races. So there are huge question marks over her and there's no point backing her each way. A repeat win in this race has always been the plan and her trainer feels she is on the way back. She would prefer softer ground but she has won on good ground. She has a nice draw from trap 3.
She will probably run a stinker but if she is back to close to her best she could win comfortably. At 14/1 she looks worth a punt to me.
I'm on!
Treve to win The Arc at 14/1 Corals
He probably wonders, as do I, why bother. There isn't even a TOTY competition any more where one could expect to receive a few plaudits.
Sadly, Peter, he is one of a number of shrewdies who no longer bother to post, presumably because they are drowned out by the cacophony of those here only to talk up their own team.
They are sadly missed.
I wouldn't do it now. There isn't the audience. It's a bit dispiriting when you spend the afternoon writing a piece on, say, Creating A Betting Bank, and you find when it's published you get two or three relevant comments before everybody goes back to discussing the extent to which Ed Is Crap.
As for TOTY, that's really up to Mike but again, how many threads contain serious tipping suggestions? (Sorry Audrey, your 800/1 effort the other day doesn't count.) The competition used to be quite fierce, but now its desultory, StJohn's fine effort today notwithstanding.
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I agree, and I typed that more to illustrate the huge difference between politics and the others than as an absolute truth. We all have our inbuilt bias. I make a few pounds on the horses but cricket is by far my main betting sport and I make a very reasonable profit on it. However I prefer to bet on matches not involving England because I know that I am subconsciously not as objective as I need to be to make money.Peter_the_Punter said:GeoffM
"Whilst politics brings out the partisan in us, other sports don't. "
Actually, I don't think that's true.
I can think of plenty of examples in horseracing, like for example the late great One Man. It was a beautiful grey and the best jumper of a fence I ever saw. At distances between two and three miles, it was supreme. But it couldn't get a yard beyond three miles, so when it ran in the Gold Cup (3m 2f) it had literally no chance. Yet it was sent off 6/4 favorite.
It was just that people loved it so much they wanted to believe it could do what everything in the form book said it couldn't. It was all just sheer partisan punting. No other explanation will do.
I stopped betting entirely on US politics several years ago because I was losing money. I was betting on what I wanted to happen and annoyingly the US population didn't always agree with me (shocker! I hear you cry). I've started again but only tentatively.
I think my point was more that I've never heard anyone say that Sir Michael Stoute is a baby-eater who wants to bomb Syria. He might well be, but if it doesn't affect his horses I don't care!0 -
Catalans have traditionally voted for the centre right, nationalist CiU in their regional elections and until recently tended to vote for the Socialists in the national Spanish elections. But now the party leading the polls there is ERC, which is a left wing party whose main platform is independence. CiU is second. ERC's support for independence has been consistent and unequivocal, CiU has only recently become a supporter of full separation and there is a suspicion that it does not really mean it (which it probably doesn't). basically, left and right do not really come into it.Garethofthevale said:
Are the Catalans leftys then? I thought their big gripe was that they are subsidising poorer regions of Spain...SouthamObserver said:The latest opinion poll in Spain indicates a sharp swing to the left, with the Socialists in the lead and the anarcho-leftist Podemos just behind the governing Partido Popular, whose support has collapsed. The Communists are in 4th. If the general election - which is due next year, I believe - delivers a result close to this then we will see the situation in Catalonia rapidly calm down.
http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/10/04/media/1412442375_992660.html
Support for independence has soared for two reasons:
First, a deal agreed between Catalonia and the previous Socialist Spanish government for the Catalans to get a much higher level of autonomy within Spain was declared unconstitutional by Spain's Constitutional Court, even though it was overwhelmingly approved by Catalans in a referendum. The Spanish Constitutional Court is a redoubt for pretty right wing judges.
Second, since the economic crisis Catalonia has been receiving less from the central government in funding than it has sent to Madrid in taxes. This has led to huge cuts in Catalonia.
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Hello, Geoff. I'm afraid you followed me over the cliff on those two. I thought TREVE couldn't do it again and while it hurt me in the pocket it was wonderful to see the faith of Criquette Head vindicated.GeoffM said:
Agreed, and many thanks to stjohn for posting it. In the absence of time for any research on the race I followed in a double tip posted here on PB of Avenir Certain and Chicquita. I'd like to thank whoever posted that too. Despite not winning they provided me with some action at the race that I wouldn't have otherwise had - so I'm grateful.
Avenir Certain travelled well enough and had a perfectly good position unlike the Japanese challengers who I thought were given terrible rides but found nothing in the final 300m. You couldn't stay she didn't stay - she just didn't pick up. Chicquita ran ok in midfield without threatening. I thought Flintshire might run well so it was annoying to see him run home so well.
The Champion Stakes at Ascot on the 18th is shaping up to be the race of the season.
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Well I've heard Sir Michael called a few things, but not those! We do have our prejudices though. I won't touch Jonjo's horses, but it's mainly because I can never figure when he's trying with them.GeoffM said:
I agree, and I typed that more to illustrate the huge difference between politics and the others than as an absolute truth. We all have our inbuilt bias. I make a few pounds on the horses but cricket is by far my main betting sport and I make a very reasonable profit on it. However I prefer to bet on matches not involving England because I know that I am subconsciously not as objective as I need to be to make money.Peter_the_Punter said:GeoffM
"Whilst politics brings out the partisan in us, other sports don't. "
Actually, I don't think that's true.
I can think of plenty of examples in horseracing, like for example the late great One Man. It was a beautiful grey and the best jumper of a fence I ever saw. At distances between two and three miles, it was supreme. But it couldn't get a yard beyond three miles, so when it ran in the Gold Cup (3m 2f) it had literally no chance. Yet it was sent off 6/4 favorite.
It was just that people loved it so much they wanted to believe it could do what everything in the form book said it couldn't. It was all just sheer partisan punting. No other explanation will do.
I stopped betting entirely on US politics several years ago because I was losing money. I was betting on what I wanted to happen and annoyingly the US population didn't always agree with me (shocker! I hear you cry). I've started again but only tentatively.
I think my point was more that I've never heard anyone say that Sir Michael Stoute is a baby-eater who wants to bomb Syria. He might well be, but if it doesn't affect his horses I don't care!
Cricket? Jeez, I wish I had followed you this year. It was my loss leader. :-(
If you are looking for a live outsider in the US Presidentials, try Scott Wlaker but only if he wins his Governor contest in Wisconsin. It's very close, but if he edges it, I think he'll throw his hat in the ring.
0 -
The current thread header by TSE is a betting one yet hardly anybody has discussed its merits. This is a mega by-election that is set to be a narrative changer either way.Peter_the_Punter said:
Well of course, PfP, but we better not bang on about it too much or we'll be pigeonholed as Grumpy Old Men!peter_from_putney said:"An outstanding piece of tipping from somebody who used to be one of the shrewdest punters on this Site."
Hear, hear ..... it's a great shame that over the years PB has lost a good number of his ilk.
In fact the site's original raison d'être scarcely exists any more and I know some of the old timers like your good self PtP very much regret that, as do I.
My view is that the with the polling showing the 2010 CON voting splitting 60:40 to CON the blues have a great platform to build on. The party will be far far better organised and LAB seems to be taking little interest. The person in charge for the blues is likely to be the same woman who masterminded Newark. UKIP has never ever achieved a share of more than 27.8% in a Westminster seat and a lot of that is down to organisational weakness not a lack of resources.
The value bet at the moment is on the Tories.
0 -
[The value bet at the moment is on the Tories.]
Didn't they start at 3/1? Or was that Clacton? I would have taken that.0 -
ANOMALOUS ODDS BEHAVIOR
=================
Last week, following the speech Cameron gave at the 2014 Conservative Party Conference, the Conservatives took the lead in the polls. It is a small lead, and yet to be differentiated from a conference bounce, but a lead nevertheless.
However, the PaddyPower and Ladbroke odds for the Conservatives got worse, not better: PaddyPower's CON seats went from 282.5 to 280.5, and Ladbrokes odds for a Con vote plurality went from 11/10 to 12/10 (i.e. 6/5)
Any suggested reason for this?0 -
Mr. Smithson, a fair point.
I do think Labour seems value, but I just can't believe it. The Conservatives and UKIP have enormous motivation and more voters. Would blues vote red? Would purples?
Miliband isn't especially inspiring either. It's a long way from impossible, though. And Labour voters mind find themselves uncertain whether to tactically vote for or against the Conservatives, and end up backing the reds (or staying at home).0 -
It looks like the Latvian convicted murderer who was allowed in the UK has topped himself after killing Alice Gross:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29495030
Why on Earth do David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband keep this system in place? Serious criminals should be barred from entering this country. It's common sense.0 -
Actually, I do remember my last 24/1 winner. It was in the Grand National, but obviously there's a large element of luck in getting that.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. M, to be fair, my tennis tips are patchier than a pirate convention.
Mr. Socrates, indeed they are. Alas.
Mr. Punter, last time I came close was either the Strictly Come Dancing where the BBC gerrymandered their own bloody rules to let Tom Chambers through, or a certain bet on Button in 2009.
0 -
Clearly Paddy and Shadsy have faith in the bacon butty strategy.viewcode said:ANOMALOUS ODDS BEHAVIOR
=================
Last week, following the speech Cameron gave at the 2014 Conservative Party Conference, the Conservatives took the lead in the polls. It is a small lead, and yet to be differentiated from a conference bounce, but a lead nevertheless.
However, the PaddyPower and Ladbroke odds for the Conservatives got worse, not better: PaddyPower's CON seats went from 282.5 to 280.5, and Ladbrokes odds for a Con vote plurality went from 11/10 to 12/10 (i.e. 6/5)
Any suggested reason for this?
0 -
Mr. Punter, there's a large element of luck with most betting, Mr. Punter
That said, the Button tip of 70/1 was horrendously mispriced. I won't get one that good again because a combination of bulletproof tyres, small fuel tanks and no DRS/ERS made assessing testing a doddle. Now it's very hard.
The 24/1 or so (16 with Ladbrokes) on Rosberg was also serious mispricing. Rumours had abounded the Mercedes engine was super, so the works team was an obvious one to back, and Rosberg has serially been underestimated.
Mind you, I get 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 mostly wrong as far as title bets went (I finished ahead once or twice, but nothing very long).
Next year I'll be having a serious look at the odds of Bottas, Ricciardo, Kvyat and Alonso (if he's at McLaren). Mind you, current rumour suggests the Honda won't be good enough.0 -
It grew quickly for a couple of quarters after collapsing 20% and then stagnating for four years? Oh, that must mean the Eurozone is a picture of health! It's amazing how willing europhiles are to cherry pick their evidence. It's like arguing with creationists.surbiton said:
The Euro will not de-rail anywhere. That was Salmond's biggest mistake. He decided jibes about Greece etc. will be difficult to deal with.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Socrates, think you missed off a significant bit of info there.
The eurozone crisis is not resolved. More than that, the eurocrat morons are trying to increase integration on banking and fiscal policy (more progress with the former, it must be said) which will make the final derailment of the eurotrain all the more catastrophic.
The fastest growing economy in Europe is Ireland.0 -
The immediate explanation is that punters are waiting to see how Clacton and Rochester shake out.viewcode said:ANOMALOUS ODDS BEHAVIOR
=================
Last week, following the speech Cameron gave at the 2014 Conservative Party Conference, the Conservatives took the lead in the polls. It is a small lead, and yet to be differentiated from a conference bounce, but a lead nevertheless.
However, the PaddyPower and Ladbroke odds for the Conservatives got worse, not better: PaddyPower's CON seats went from 282.5 to 280.5, and Ladbrokes odds for a Con vote plurality went from 11/10 to 12/10 (i.e. 6/5)
Any suggested reason for this?
If the Conservatives can negotiate their way through them without too much damage, and their improvement in the polls continue, the odds will shorten soon enough.
I personally wouldn't back a Tory Overall Majority - yet. Might do in January.
0 -
[Next year I'll be having a serious look at the odds of Bottas, Ricciardo, Kvyat and Alonso (if he's at McLaren). ]
Bottas doesn't look like a race driver - can't be him0 -
Criminal Scots can move South and criminal English North. It's what free movement's all about!Socrates said:It looks like the Latvian convicted murderer who was allowed in the UK has topped himself after killing Alice Gross:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29495030
Why on Earth do David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband keep this system in place? Serious criminals should be barred from entering this country. It's common sense.0 -
Mr. Briskin, the leaderboard would disagree.
King Cole, you are a banana to compare an ancient nation with the unaccountable anti-democratic nest of corruption and economic idiocy which is the EU.0 -
@Morris Dancer
On the subject of Good Value Tips [GVT] we must mention Tissue Price's brilliant recommendation of Washington Nationals for the World Series. At 20/1 they seriously mispriced.
Sadly, it appears the GVT will shortly become a GVLT [Good Value Losing Tip] any day now, but it was a sterling effort.0 -
It's not clear where these numbers come from. TSE says he got them from you.MikeSmithson said:
The current thread header by TSE is a betting one yet hardly anybody has discussed its merits. This is a mega by-election that is set to be a narrative changer either way.Peter_the_Punter said:
Well of course, PfP, but we better not bang on about it too much or we'll be pigeonholed as Grumpy Old Men!peter_from_putney said:"An outstanding piece of tipping from somebody who used to be one of the shrewdest punters on this Site."
Hear, hear ..... it's a great shame that over the years PB has lost a good number of his ilk.
In fact the site's original raison d'être scarcely exists any more and I know some of the old timers like your good self PtP very much regret that, as do I.
My view is that the with the polling showing the 2010 CON voting splitting 60:40 to CON the blues have a great platform to build on. The party will be far far better organised and LAB seems to be taking little interest. The person in charge for the blues is likely to be the same woman who masterminded Newark. UKIP has never ever achieved a share of more than 27.8% in a Westminster seat and a lot of that is down to organisational weakness not a lack of resources.
The value bet at the moment is on the Tories.
When I look at the poll, without the 2010 'did not vote', I end up with
Con 32%, UKIP 36%.
0 -
Do you mean to live, or even visiting? If so, how would that work? Would it be reliant on self-certification ("I have not committed any of the following long list of crimes...") or connection to foreign conviction databases?Socrates said:It looks like the Latvian convicted murderer who was allowed in the UK has topped himself after killing Alice Gross:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29495030
Why on Earth do David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband keep this system in place? Serious criminals should be barred from entering this country. It's common sense.0 -
Mr. Punter, it's a philosophical question as to whether it's better to lose by a tiny bit (indicating good judgement but being very frustrating) or miles (because at least then hope doesn't taunt you).0
-
Via the same system they have for non-EU convicted murderers.JosiasJessop said:
Do you mean to live, or even visiting? If so, how would that work? Would it be reliant on self-certification ("I have not committed any of the following long list of crimes...") or connection to foreign conviction databases?Socrates said:It looks like the Latvian convicted murderer who was allowed in the UK has topped himself after killing Alice Gross:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29495030
Why on Earth do David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband keep this system in place? Serious criminals should be barred from entering this country. It's common sense.0 -
I'm with Mike. As is some of my money!anotherDave said:
It's not clear where these numbers come from. TSE says he got them from you.MikeSmithson said:
The current thread header by TSE is a betting one yet hardly anybody has discussed its merits. This is a mega by-election that is set to be a narrative changer either way.Peter_the_Punter said:
Well of course, PfP, but we better not bang on about it too much or we'll be pigeonholed as Grumpy Old Men!peter_from_putney said:"An outstanding piece of tipping from somebody who used to be one of the shrewdest punters on this Site."
Hear, hear ..... it's a great shame that over the years PB has lost a good number of his ilk.
In fact the site's original raison d'être scarcely exists any more and I know some of the old timers like your good self PtP very much regret that, as do I.
My view is that the with the polling showing the 2010 CON voting splitting 60:40 to CON the blues have a great platform to build on. The party will be far far better organised and LAB seems to be taking little interest. The person in charge for the blues is likely to be the same woman who masterminded Newark. UKIP has never ever achieved a share of more than 27.8% in a Westminster seat and a lot of that is down to organisational weakness not a lack of resources.
The value bet at the moment is on the Tories.
When I look at the poll, without the 2010 'did not vote', I end up with
Con 32%, UKIP 36%.
0 -
They are all British citizens and not people immigrating to this country.OldKingCole said:
Criminal Scots can move South and criminal English North. It's what free movement's all about!Socrates said:It looks like the Latvian convicted murderer who was allowed in the UK has topped himself after killing Alice Gross:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29495030
Why on Earth do David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband keep this system in place? Serious criminals should be barred from entering this country. It's common sense.0 -
The US sort of does this. It helps make it one of the safest, least violent societies in the western world.JosiasJessop said:
Do you mean to live, or even visiting? If so, how would that work? Would it be reliant on self-certification ("I have not committed any of the following long list of crimes...") or connection to foreign conviction databases?Socrates said:It looks like the Latvian convicted murderer who was allowed in the UK has topped himself after killing Alice Gross:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29495030
Why on Earth do David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband keep this system in place? Serious criminals should be barred from entering this country. It's common sense.0 -
Easiest philosophical question Eva!!!!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Punter, it's a philosophical question as to whether it's better to lose by a tiny bit (indicating good judgement but being very frustrating) or miles (because at least then hope doesn't taunt you).
The answer is A - a tiny bit (indicating good judgement...)
0 -
Mr. Briskin, I am not Eva.0
-
Mr Dancer, my style guide says that in English the word is "ever" (sic).0
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Do you know where these numbers came from?rottenborough said:
I'm with Mike. As is some of my money!anotherDave said:
It's not clear where these numbers come from. TSE says he got them from you.MikeSmithson said:
The current thread header by TSE is a betting one yet hardly anybody has discussed its merits. This is a mega by-election that is set to be a narrative changer either way.Peter_the_Punter said:
Well of course, PfP, but we better not bang on about it too much or we'll be pigeonholed as Grumpy Old Men!peter_from_putney said:"An outstanding piece of tipping from somebody who used to be one of the shrewdest punters on this Site."
Hear, hear ..... it's a great shame that over the years PB has lost a good number of his ilk.
In fact the site's original raison d'être scarcely exists any more and I know some of the old timers like your good self PtP very much regret that, as do I.
My view is that the with the polling showing the 2010 CON voting splitting 60:40 to CON the blues have a great platform to build on. The party will be far far better organised and LAB seems to be taking little interest. The person in charge for the blues is likely to be the same woman who masterminded Newark. UKIP has never ever achieved a share of more than 27.8% in a Westminster seat and a lot of that is down to organisational weakness not a lack of resources.
The value bet at the moment is on the Tories.
When I look at the poll, without the 2010 'did not vote', I end up with
Con 32%, UKIP 36%.
Can you please explain it to me then, because I don't see it.
EDIT
p.8, table 5
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Confidential-Rochester-and-Strood-Constituency-Poll-Weighted_Oct03.pdf
There are 91 'did not vote': total voters (697-91)
Ukip (281-62) 36%
Con (216-22) 32%
0 -
Mr. Briskin, honestly. There's slang, and then there's abusing the English language.0
-
The former.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Punter, it's a philosophical question as to whether it's better to lose by a tiny bit (indicating good judgement but being very frustrating) or miles (because at least then hope doesn't taunt you).
It hurts more, but shows you are on the right lines.
0 -
Which is? (I ask as I genuinely do not know).Socrates said:
Via the same system they have for non-EU convicted murderers.JosiasJessop said:
Do you mean to live, or even visiting? If so, how would that work? Would it be reliant on self-certification ("I have not committed any of the following long list of crimes...") or connection to foreign conviction databases?Socrates said:It looks like the Latvian convicted murderer who was allowed in the UK has topped himself after killing Alice Gross:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29495030
Why on Earth do David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband keep this system in place? Serious criminals should be barred from entering this country. It's common sense.0 -
@Nigel4England
"I was like that with Tingle Creek, I loved that horse"
And I love the race named in its honour - a fitting tribute to a great champion.0 -
I always wanted to tick the I Am A Wanted War Criminal box. Or I Am A Nazi.matt said:
The US sort of does this. It helps make it one of the safest, least violent societies in the western world.JosiasJessop said:
Do you mean to live, or even visiting? If so, how would that work? Would it be reliant on self-certification ("I have not committed any of the following long list of crimes...") or connection to foreign conviction databases?Socrates said:It looks like the Latvian convicted murderer who was allowed in the UK has topped himself after killing Alice Gross:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29495030
Why on Earth do David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband keep this system in place? Serious criminals should be barred from entering this country. It's common sense.0 -
Hopefully you're not driving a car with a provocative number plate?MikeSmithson said:
This has nothing to do with my current holiday in Espana.SouthamObserver said:The latest opinion poll in Spain indicates a sharp swing to the left, with the Socialists in the lead and the anarcho-leftist Podemos just behind the governing Partido Popular, whose support has collapsed. The Communists are in 4th. If the general election - which is due next year, I believe - delivers a result close to this then we will see the situation in Catalonia rapidly calm down.
http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/10/04/media/1412442375_992660.html
such as G18 R0X
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If you both wish to discuss relative growth rates (or better still absolute GDP values) between countries, may I recommend http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/index.php ? Select "bubble chart", tick the left-hand-side boxes for the countries you want, click on "more settings" and uncheck "show all", and the relative performance of your countries should become apparent.Socrates said:
It grew quickly for a couple of quarters after collapsing 20% and then stagnating for four years? Oh, that must mean the Eurozone is a picture of health! It's amazing how willing europhiles are to cherry pick their evidence. It's like arguing with creationists.surbiton said:
The Euro will not de-rail anywhere. That was Salmond's biggest mistake. He decided jibes about Greece etc. will be difficult to deal with.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Socrates, think you missed off a significant bit of info there.
The eurozone crisis is not resolved. More than that, the eurocrat morons are trying to increase integration on banking and fiscal policy (more progress with the former, it must be said) which will make the final derailment of the eurotrain all the more catastrophic.
The fastest growing economy in Europe is Ireland.0 -
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/05/labour-nhs-funding-pledge-unravels
It comes to something when the Guardian exposes the hollowness of Labour's key conference spending pledge.
Miliband needs to get his act together.0 -
The bookies were reacting, wrongly, to Reckless.viewcode said:ANOMALOUS ODDS BEHAVIOR
=================
Last week, following the speech Cameron gave at the 2014 Conservative Party Conference, the Conservatives took the lead in the polls. It is a small lead, and yet to be differentiated from a conference bounce, but a lead nevertheless.
However, the PaddyPower and Ladbroke odds for the Conservatives got worse, not better: PaddyPower's CON seats went from 282.5 to 280.5, and Ladbrokes odds for a Con vote plurality went from 11/10 to 12/10 (i.e. 6/5)
Any suggested reason for this?
Mike's right to a point that both Clacton and Rochester may be important, but they will be far more important to anoraks than to the mainstream public.
Cameron pretty much nailed it re. what matters to people, and the consequent meme of 'bed with Nigel wake up with Ed' wouldn't be that harmed by two UKIP wins.
Let's be quite clear: UKIP aren't going to win many, if any, MP's on May 07th. Anyone who thinks otherwise has little idea about British politics. Co-comitantly, the LibDems are likely to do far better, especially in MPs, than their current national share. They always do.
So as ever it will come down to a straight two horse race: Conservative or Labour, Cameron or Miliband.
Place your bets accordingly.0 -
Nothing scientific I am afraid, just based on discussing the issue with people I know who support the Libdems.logical_song said:
I think that the polling shows that UKIP are the least liked and most disliked party. It's interesting that you've seen this broken down by party support. Can you point us to the data so I can see the figures.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Generally, my experience is that Fargle and Co really get under the skin of LibdemsAndyJS said:
It's no secret that TSE and OGH are not particularly well disposed towards the purples.MikeK said:It's getting pretty obvious that nearly every second thread presented by TSE is in someway anti UKIP or biased against UKIP. I think that this is a deliberate policy cooked up by TSE to keep his and Mikes end up against the coming deluge.
I don't mind myself but it's getting bloody boring.
I think it is partly the horror of seeing the tory right who had been neutered by the Libdems forming a coalition successfully breaking through again within UKIP and dragging the agenda back rightwards
And also partly the horror of seeing the rise of an unashamedly right wing eurosceptic party who are their antithesis.
Its an odd thing that the 20th Century which saw the collapse of the big L liberal party, also saw the triumph of small L liberal polices, economically and socially. UKIP threaten that consensus.0 -
Thank you. I was wondering if it was some kind of laggy behavior: were we seeing a delayed efect from the lab conference, and could we expect a delayed effect from the Con conference later in the week? However your explanation is also plausible.Peter_the_Punter said:
The immediate explanation is that punters are waiting to see how Clacton and Rochester shake out.viewcode said:ANOMALOUS ODDS BEHAVIOR
=================
Last week, following the speech Cameron gave at the 2014 Conservative Party Conference, the Conservatives took the lead in the polls. It is a small lead, and yet to be differentiated from a conference bounce, but a lead nevertheless.
However, the PaddyPower and Ladbroke odds for the Conservatives got worse, not better: PaddyPower's CON seats went from 282.5 to 280.5, and Ladbrokes odds for a Con vote plurality went from 11/10 to 12/10 (i.e. 6/5)
Any suggested reason for this?
If the Conservatives can negotiate their way through them without too much damage, and their improvement in the polls continue, the odds will shorten soon enough.
I personally wouldn't back a Tory Overall Majority - yet. Might do in January.
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The bookies just go by the punters, but of course that just shifts the question to the punters. A possible reason is that the shift was rather modest after what has to be an ideal week for the Conservatives: a poorly-received Miliband speech followed by a well-received Cameron speech with tax cuts, followed by a press orgasm about the speech. If all that merely shifts Labour from 36 to 34, perhaps punters think that suggests limited potential for a Tory breakthrough next year.viewcode said:ANOMALOUS ODDS BEHAVIOR
=================
Last week, following the speech Cameron gave at the 2014 Conservative Party Conference, the Conservatives took the lead in the polls. It is a small lead, and yet to be differentiated from a conference bounce, but a lead nevertheless.
However, the PaddyPower and Ladbroke odds for the Conservatives got worse, not better: PaddyPower's CON seats went from 282.5 to 280.5, and Ladbrokes odds for a Con vote plurality went from 11/10 to 12/10 (i.e. 6/5)
Any suggested reason for this?
Peraonally I continue to think we won't really know where we are for another week or two (and then the Rochester by-election still to come and perhaps others).
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Spoiler Do not read on if you dont want to know strictly result
I bet Greg Wallace goes
OK i follow the spoiler thread that reveals the evictee every Saturday night0 -
Plato
"I always wanted to tick the I Am A Wanted War Criminal box. Or I Am A Nazi."
I think you'll almost get away with it0
