ANOMALOUS ODDS BEHAVIOR ================= Last week, following the speech Cameron gave at the 2014 Conservative Party Conference, the Conservatives took the lead in the polls. It is a small lead, and yet to be differentiated from a conference bounce, but a lead nevertheless.
However, the PaddyPower and Ladbroke odds for the Conservatives got worse, not better: PaddyPower's CON seats went from 282.5 to 280.5, and Ladbrokes odds for a Con vote plurality went from 11/10 to 12/10 (i.e. 6/5)
Any suggested reason for this?
Let's be quite clear: UKIP aren't going to win many, if any, MP's on May 07th. Anyone who thinks otherwise has little idea about British politics. Co-comitantly, the LibDems are likely to do far better, especially in MPs, than their current national share. They always do.
So as ever it will come down to a straight two horse race: Conservative or Labour, Cameron or Miliband.
Place your bets accordingly.
UKIP won't affect the election only by winning seats. They will also have an indirect effect, they may change which seats are marginals, and who wins them.
ANOMALOUS ODDS BEHAVIOR ================= Last week, following the speech Cameron gave at the 2014 Conservative Party Conference, the Conservatives took the lead in the polls. It is a small lead, and yet to be differentiated from a conference bounce, but a lead nevertheless.
However, the PaddyPower and Ladbroke odds for the Conservatives got worse, not better: PaddyPower's CON seats went from 282.5 to 280.5, and Ladbrokes odds for a Con vote plurality went from 11/10 to 12/10 (i.e. 6/5)
Any suggested reason for this?
The immediate explanation is that punters are waiting to see how Clacton and Rochester shake out.
If the Conservatives can negotiate their way through them without too much damage, and their improvement in the polls continue, the odds will shorten soon enough.
I personally wouldn't back a Tory Overall Majority - yet. Might do in January.
Thank you. I was wondering if it was some kind of laggy behavior: were we seeing a delayed efect from the lab conference, and could we expect a delayed effect from the Con conference later in the week? However your explanation is also plausible.
Thnks.
See also NickP's explanation, which is not inconsistent with mine.
ANOMALOUS ODDS BEHAVIOR ================= Last week, following the speech Cameron gave at the 2014 Conservative Party Conference, the Conservatives took the lead in the polls. It is a small lead, and yet to be differentiated from a conference bounce, but a lead nevertheless.
However, the PaddyPower and Ladbroke odds for the Conservatives got worse, not better: PaddyPower's CON seats went from 282.5 to 280.5, and Ladbrokes odds for a Con vote plurality went from 11/10 to 12/10 (i.e. 6/5)
Any suggested reason for this?
The immediate explanation is that punters are waiting to see how Clacton and Rochester shake out.
If the Conservatives can negotiate their way through them without too much damage, and their improvement in the polls continue, the odds will shorten soon enough.
I personally wouldn't back a Tory Overall Majority - yet. Might do in January.
Thank you. I was wondering if it was some kind of laggy behavior: were we seeing a delayed efect from the lab conference, and could we expect a delayed effect from the Con conference later in the week? However your explanation is also plausible.
If you're expecting the Tories to be the largest party/win a majority at the election the best strategy is to back them in the individual constituency markets, that's where the value is rather than the seat bands.
ANOMALOUS ODDS BEHAVIOR ================= Last week, following the speech Cameron gave at the 2014 Conservative Party Conference, the Conservatives took the lead in the polls. It is a small lead, and yet to be differentiated from a conference bounce, but a lead nevertheless.
However, the PaddyPower and Ladbroke odds for the Conservatives got worse, not better: PaddyPower's CON seats went from 282.5 to 280.5, and Ladbrokes odds for a Con vote plurality went from 11/10 to 12/10 (i.e. 6/5)
Any suggested reason for this?
The bookies just go by the punters, but of course that just shifts the question to the punters. A possible reason is that the shift was rather modest after what has to be an ideal week for the Conservatives: a poorly-received Miliband speech followed by a well-received Cameron speech with tax cuts, followed by a press orgasm about the speech. If all that merely shifts Labour from 36 to 34, perhaps punters think that suggests limited potential for a Tory breakthrough next year.
Peraonally I continue to think we won't really know where we are for another week or two (and then the Rochester by-election still to come and perhaps others).
I reckon it is because the political conference season is the only time, apart from events of the gravest implications and the run up to a general election, that most people take any notice of what the policiticans are saying. The rest of the time they just give a kneejerk reaction and a lot just use the polls to kick the government.
Punters are more politically interested so no change registers.
If I'm right then Labour will catchup between now and Christmas before falling back in the run up to the election, unless events, dear boy, events, intervene.
@jameschappers: .@normanlamb by far most signif intervention at #ldconf: EdM not credible PM/Lib-Lab coalition based on low vote share 'enormously damaging'
@jameschappers: .@normanlamb by far most signif intervention at #ldconf: EdM not credible PM/Lib-Lab coalition based on low vote share 'enormously damaging'
Quite a few people including me are starting to feel concerned. I thought he'd have shown a little more by now and I'm not talking about the superficial stuff
The latest opinion poll in Spain indicates a sharp swing to the left, with the Socialists in the lead and the anarcho-leftist Podemos just behind the governing Partido Popular, whose support has collapsed. The Communists are in 4th. If the general election - which is due next year, I believe - delivers a result close to this then we will see the situation in Catalonia rapidly calm down.
This has nothing to do with my current holiday in Espana.
Hopefully you're not driving a car with a provocative number plate?
such as G18 R0X
I'm only about half an hour from the Rock where all my bookmakers area based providing good jobs for thousands of Spaniards who flock over the border each day. But rest assured I'm not being provocative apart from downing a lot of fluid with "Osborne" on the label.
Mr. Socrates, think you missed off a significant bit of info there.
The eurozone crisis is not resolved. More than that, the eurocrat morons are trying to increase integration on banking and fiscal policy (more progress with the former, it must be said) which will make the final derailment of the eurotrain all the more catastrophic.
The Euro will not de-rail anywhere. That was Salmond's biggest mistake. He decided jibes about Greece etc. will be difficult to deal with.
The fastest growing economy in Europe is Ireland.
It grew quickly for a couple of quarters after collapsing 20% and then stagnating for four years? Oh, that must mean the Eurozone is a picture of health! It's amazing how willing europhiles are to cherry pick their evidence. It's like arguing with creationists.
The UK also stagnated for 4 years partly due to an enforced austerity.
If you're expecting the Tories to be the largest party/win a majority at the election the best strategy is to back them in the individual constituency markets...
The bookies just go by the punters, but of course that just shifts the question to the punters. A possible reason is that the shift was rather modest after what has to be an ideal week for the Conservatives: a poorly-received Miliband speech followed by a well-received Cameron speech with tax cuts, followed by a press orgasm about the speech. If all that merely shifts Labour from 36 to 34, perhaps punters think that suggests limited potential for a Tory breakthrough next year...
The latest opinion poll in Spain indicates a sharp swing to the left, with the Socialists in the lead and the anarcho-leftist Podemos just behind the governing Partido Popular, whose support has collapsed. The Communists are in 4th. If the general election - which is due next year, I believe - delivers a result close to this then we will see the situation in Catalonia rapidly calm down.
Comments
The recent Fabian paper covers this.
http://www.fabians.org.uk/publications/revolt-on-the-left-labours-ukip-problem-and-how-it-can-be-overcome/
See also NickP's explanation, which is not inconsistent with mine.
Punters are more politically interested so no change registers.
If I'm right then Labour will catchup between now and Christmas before falling back in the run up to the election, unless events, dear boy, events, intervene.
For those betting on Ed for PM...
Do you think we've picked a winner?
Quite a few people including me are starting to feel concerned. I thought he'd have shown a little more by now and I'm not talking about the superficial stuff
"And, how did he say the £7bn tax cut would be funded ?"
Usual way. Rob Peter to pay Tarquin
The kippers have given up it seems. So have the Tories.
9 polls with fieldwork end-dates 28th Sep to 4th Oct, total weighted sample size 11,610:
Lab 35.6% (-0.5)
Con 32.7% (+1.0)
UKIP 14.4% (-0.3)
LD 7.4% (+0.1)
Lab lead 2.9% (-1.5%)
LogicalSong There preparations are not advanced if we put it look like that