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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What the Rochester poll would look like without the 2010 non voters

Thanks to Mike for alerting me to the fact that 23.4% of the UKIP support in the survation poll were people who did not vote in the 2010 General Election.

Read the full story here

Morris_Dancer

FPT: Clegg wants Wales to have more powers and ultimately (not just Wales) to have powers over taxation and borrowing:
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2014-10-05/wales-should-have-more-powers-says-nick-clegg/

Right. I'm sure allowing devolved Parliaments/Assemblies the right to borrow won't have any pitfalls at all...

On-topic: will Labour voters be enthused to vote, though? They could vote tactically either way, or just not bother.

anotherDave

So even if you magic away 23% of UKIP support, Mr Reckless still wins.

What a guy!

Lennon

Labour winning does however require them to actually make some effort - which I don't believe we've seen at all so far.

TheScreamingEagles

The formatting with the link went wrong.

The final sentence reads

"14/1 on Labour winning the by-election looks very tasty, in light of the above, but I think most of my money today will be going on a Tory hold."

felix

Labour don't seem to have the stomach for a fight. With the current Labour set-up the expectation has to be that they will be squeezed. On another topic it's been most instructive following the attempts of some posters to rubbish YG for having the temerity to weight its polling numbers and put the Tories marginally ahead. Lord help us if the tyories do establish a real trend lead. I suspect the nastiness to become quite..well..downright.. nasty:)

anotherDave

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Clegg wants Wales to have more powers and ultimately (not just Wales) to have powers over taxation and borrowing:
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2014-10-05/wales-should-have-more-powers-says-nick-clegg/

Right. I'm sure allowing devolved Parliaments/Assemblies the right to borrow won't have any pitfalls at all...

On-topic: will Labour voters be enthused to vote, though? They could vote tactically either way, or just not bother.

Welsh voters don't seem to want that.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-29331475

TCPoliticalBetting

Lennon said:

Labour winning does however require them to actually make some effort - which I don't believe we've seen at all so far.

Agreed, they seem to want to sit back and not put the effort into things such as Conferences, Speeches, door step campaigning etc. Maybe Prescott was right on this aspect? When a few on here pointed this out some days ago about Rochester, they were told that they knew nothing about political strategy... Of course over taking UKIP would also remove the threat UKIP are starting to become in a few Labour WWC areas. But Labour is so out of touch so as not to notice.

felix

anotherDave said:

So even if you magic away 23% of UKIP support, Mr Reckless still wins.

What a guy!

Hardly magic - lots of 2010 no-voters are probably never voters and serial moaners!

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Dave, Cornwall didn't want minority status either. I'm beginning to wonder if the Cornish nonsense was a cunning plan by Clegg to try and kill an English Parliament at birth by having a ready made region for an assembly.

DavidL

When antifrank said this was going to be close is this what he meant?

But even applying the 50% discount on non voters (which has stood the test of time) UKIP is currently ahead.

The key for me is the effect of the Clacton result. If that gives UKIP a lift they may just swing this. If it is closer than currently expected Reckless will have lived up to his name and will pay the price.

Labour have no chance. Once again, they are not players. How will their squeezed vote split?

felix

Overall there has to be still a good chance Reckless will win but I suspect this one will be close enough to seriously discourage other potential defectors.

manofkent2014

felix said:

anotherDave said:

So even if you magic away 23% of UKIP support, Mr Reckless still wins.

What a guy!

Hardly magic - lots of 2010 no-voters are probably never voters and serial moaners!

And they wonder why people are turning their backs on the establishment parties?

TheScreamingEagles

DavidL said:

When antifrank said this was going to be close is this what he meant?

But even applying the 50% discount on non voters (which has stood the test of time) UKIP is currently ahead.

The key for me is the effect of the Clacton result. If that gives UKIP a lift they may just swing this. If it is closer than currently expected Reckless will have lived up to his name and will pay the price.

Labour have no chance. Once again, they are not players. How will their squeezed vote split?

59% of Labour supporters think UKIP is a racist party.

anotherDave

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Dave, Cornwall didn't want minority status either. I'm beginning to wonder if the Cornish nonsense was a cunning plan by Clegg to try and kill an English Parliament at birth by having a ready made region for an assembly.

That's an interesting idea.

Roger

FPT. Tyson.

"I actually think that Ed is such a narcissist that even if Labour lose the election he will try and hang on."

Hi Tyson. Good to see you again. I don't think it's impossible to win with a crap leader but in Miliband's case he doesn't seem able to define what the party is or what it stands for. Even though some of the Labour purists say the other Miliband was too Blairite and couldn't hold a banana he was at least articulate.

As you say Ed's narcissism could cost Labour dearly. Probably ten years or longer. Cameron's smart enough within five years to stop his party looking like Tories and then Labour lose their most important USP.

anotherDave

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

When antifrank said this was going to be close is this what he meant?

But even applying the 50% discount on non voters (which has stood the test of time) UKIP is currently ahead.

The key for me is the effect of the Clacton result. If that gives UKIP a lift they may just swing this. If it is closer than currently expected Reckless will have lived up to his name and will pay the price.

Labour have no chance. Once again, they are not players. How will their squeezed vote split?

59% of Labour supporters think UKIP is a racist party.

Source?

stjohn

"STFOHN", (St.John's, The Flat, Occasional Horseracing Nod), is backing Treve to win The Arc.

She was an extremely impressive winner last year and has been "wrong" in her subsequent three races. So there are huge question marks over her and there's no point backing her each way. A repeat win in this race has always been the plan and her trainer feels she is on the way back. She would prefer softer ground but she has won on good ground. She has a nice draw from trap 3.

She will probably run a stinker but if she is back to close to her best she could win comfortably. At 14/1 she looks worth a punt to me.

I'm on!

Treve to win The Arc at 14/1 Corals

felix

Back to Labour - I never could understand why either of the Miliband brothers were considered leadership material. They have always both seemed rather like twonkish sixth formers with little sense of realism about the real world outside the north London enclave of leftish intelligencia in which they've been brought up. And of the 2 Ed is considerably the weaker option.

manofkent2014

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

When antifrank said this was going to be close is this what he meant?

But even applying the 50% discount on non voters (which has stood the test of time) UKIP is currently ahead.

The key for me is the effect of the Clacton result. If that gives UKIP a lift they may just swing this. If it is closer than currently expected Reckless will have lived up to his name and will pay the price.

Labour have no chance. Once again, they are not players. How will their squeezed vote split?

59% of Labour supporters think UKIP is a racist party.

And how many Labour voters think the Tories are a racist party?

DavidL

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

When antifrank said this was going to be close is this what he meant?

But even applying the 50% discount on non voters (which has stood the test of time) UKIP is currently ahead.

The key for me is the effect of the Clacton result. If that gives UKIP a lift they may just swing this. If it is closer than currently expected Reckless will have lived up to his name and will pay the price.

Labour have no chance. Once again, they are not players. How will their squeezed vote split?

59% of Labour supporters think UKIP is a racist party.

There has been evidence of tactical voting by Labour supporters against UKIP but to vote Tory this close to an election? It is a big ask.

anotherDave

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

When antifrank said this was going to be close is this what he meant?

But even applying the 50% discount on non voters (which has stood the test of time) UKIP is currently ahead.

The key for me is the effect of the Clacton result. If that gives UKIP a lift they may just swing this. If it is closer than currently expected Reckless will have lived up to his name and will pay the price.

Labour have no chance. Once again, they are not players. How will their squeezed vote split?

59% of Labour supporters think UKIP is a racist party.

There has been evidence of tactical voting by Labour supporters against UKIP but to vote Tory this close to an election? It is a big ask.

The Survation poll splits 2010 Labour voters as:

Con 3.1%, Lab 76.9%, LD 0.9%, UKIP 18.5%

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Confidential-Rochester-and-Strood-Constituency-Poll-Weighted_Oct03.pdf


"Probs for Cons in R&S (1) Lab vote not like Newark. More tribal. If breaks will break Ukip not Con"

twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/518694880835801088

manofkent2014

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

When antifrank said this was going to be close is this what he meant?

But even applying the 50% discount on non voters (which has stood the test of time) UKIP is currently ahead.

The key for me is the effect of the Clacton result. If that gives UKIP a lift they may just swing this. If it is closer than currently expected Reckless will have lived up to his name and will pay the price.

Labour have no chance. Once again, they are not players. How will their squeezed vote split?

59% of Labour supporters think UKIP is a racist party.

There has been evidence of tactical voting by Labour supporters against UKIP but to vote Tory this close to an election? It is a big ask.

I suspect that to many Labour voters (especially those who saw Ed Miliband the other day) there is very little difference between the Tories and UKIP and the Tories have the disadvantage of being the incumbent government.

felix

manofkent2014 said:

felix said:

anotherDave said:

So even if you magic away 23% of UKIP support, Mr Reckless still wins.

What a guy!

Hardly magic - lots of 2010 no-voters are probably never voters and serial moaners!

And they wonder why people are turning their backs on the establishment parties?

People are doing that all over the world - many of them are disillusioned with the political establishment and yet you want them to vote for ex-conservatives who have seen the light?
Clearly UKIP wish to pretend they are breaking the mould, etc but many of us have been around long enough to know this has been tried before - remember Shirley Williams, etc., etc

DavidL

Man U move into the CL places. Crisis?

Not able to watch because those prats in the EU think all "competition" is good for the consumer and BT have the match but according to the BBC de Gea was MOTM by a distance with a string of saves including a penalty. So still a long way to go. Almost as far as the Lib Dems in fact.

DavidL

manofkent2014 said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

When antifrank said this was going to be close is this what he meant?

But even applying the 50% discount on non voters (which has stood the test of time) UKIP is currently ahead.

The key for me is the effect of the Clacton result. If that gives UKIP a lift they may just swing this. If it is closer than currently expected Reckless will have lived up to his name and will pay the price.

Labour have no chance. Once again, they are not players. How will their squeezed vote split?

59% of Labour supporters think UKIP is a racist party.

There has been evidence of tactical voting by Labour supporters against UKIP but to vote Tory this close to an election? It is a big ask.

I suspect that to many Labour voters (especially those who saw Ed Miliband the other day) there is very little difference between the Tories and UKIP and the Tories have the disadvantage of being the incumbent government.

Those who saw Ed the other day are too busy drowning their sorrows to vote.

Artist

I don't think Labour will soft pedal in this seat, a 25%-30% result would give them a good base to build on for next year.

Roger

OT. Following Mike's comment about another YouGov poll creating drama due to manipulation of the raw data (otherwise known as 'weighting') I wonder how many more they'll have to get wrong before they become known as 'AnythingforaheadlineGov'?

DavidL

anotherDave said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

When antifrank said this was going to be close is this what he meant?

But even applying the 50% discount on non voters (which has stood the test of time) UKIP is currently ahead.

The key for me is the effect of the Clacton result. If that gives UKIP a lift they may just swing this. If it is closer than currently expected Reckless will have lived up to his name and will pay the price.

Labour have no chance. Once again, they are not players. How will their squeezed vote split?

59% of Labour supporters think UKIP is a racist party.

There has been evidence of tactical voting by Labour supporters against UKIP but to vote Tory this close to an election? It is a big ask.

The Survation poll splits 2010 Labour voters as:

Con 3.1%, Lab 76.9%, LD 0.9%, UKIP 18.5%

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Confidential-Rochester-and-Strood-Constituency-Poll-Weighted_Oct03.pdf


"Probs for Cons in R&S (1) Lab vote not like Newark. More tribal. If breaks will break Ukip not Con"

twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/518694880835801088

That is a completely different point. It is not who they support but who they are willing to vote for tactically to prevent an even worse result when it becomes clear (again) that their own team is not even trying.

Alanbrooke

You have to hand it to Blair, he's done more damage to the Murdochs than Miliband and his army of moany lawyers.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2780745/250million-marriage-Murdoch-s-daughter-Elisabeth-PR-king-Matthew-Freud-over.html

TheScreamingEagles

anotherDave said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

When antifrank said this was going to be close is this what he meant?

But even applying the 50% discount on non voters (which has stood the test of time) UKIP is currently ahead.

The key for me is the effect of the Clacton result. If that gives UKIP a lift they may just swing this. If it is closer than currently expected Reckless will have lived up to his name and will pay the price.

Labour have no chance. Once again, they are not players. How will their squeezed vote split?

59% of Labour supporters think UKIP is a racist party.

Source?

The YouGov for the Sunday Times published today

felix

Roger said:

OT. Following Mike's comment about another YouGov poll creating drama due to manipulation of the raw data (otherwise known as 'weighting') I wonder how many more they'll have to get wrong before they become known as 'AnythingforaheadlineGov'?

Oh dear - the left-wing bitterness about a poll they don't like reaches new depths.

manofkent2014

felix said:

manofkent2014 said:

felix said:

anotherDave said:

So even if you magic away 23% of UKIP support, Mr Reckless still wins.

What a guy!

Hardly magic - lots of 2010 no-voters are probably never voters and serial moaners!

And they wonder why people are turning their backs on the establishment parties?

People are doing that all over the world - many of them are disillusioned with the political establishment and yet you want them to vote for ex-conservatives who have seen the light?
Clearly UKIP wish to pretend they are breaking the mould, etc but many of us have been around long enough to know this has been tried before - remember Shirley Williams, etc., etc

Oh dear. I said nothing about UKIP in my post Yes people are turning their backs on the establishment all over Europe (I'm not so sure about much of the rest of the world) and the reason why they are is because arrogant condescending establishment types dismiss their potentially valid concerns at the current establishment as nothing more than 'serial moaning'.

My party affiliations are irrelevant in this case because its not just UKIP that are benefitting. In case you hadn't noticed Scotland has its own insurgent movement and the Greens vote share is creeping up as well. This is not about the parties that are benefitting its about the establishment parties across the continent being too arrogant to recognise their own faults!

Paul_Mid_Beds

MarkSenior said:

You are living in a fantasy world which bears no relation to reality

TY Malcolm G!

I based the LD surviving seats on putting the lattest poll figures into Baxter. In fact I gave the Libs 13 including one gain as against 11 in Baxter.

Inevitably I will have got one or two wrong as I'm not a prophet, however council elections don't always make good predictors of general elections anymore than Scottish parliament elections make good predictions of independence referendums.

felix

manofkent2014 said:

felix said:

manofkent2014 said:

felix said:

anotherDave said:

So even if you magic away 23% of UKIP support, Mr Reckless still wins.

What a guy!

Hardly magic - lots of 2010 no-voters are probably never voters and serial moaners!

And they wonder why people are turning their backs on the establishment parties?

People are doing that all over the world - many of them are disillusioned with the political establishment and yet you want them to vote for ex-conservatives who have seen the light?
Clearly UKIP wish to pretend they are breaking the mould, etc but many of us have been around long enough to know this has been tried before - remember Shirley Williams, etc., etc

Oh dear. I said nothing about UKIP in my post Yes people are turning their backs on the establishment all over Europe (I'm not so sure about much of the rest of the world) and the reason why they are is because arrogant condescending establishment types dismiss their potentially valid concerns at the current establishment as nothing more than 'serial moaning'.

My party affiliations are irrelevant in this case because its not just UKIP that are benefitting. In case you hadn't noticed Scotland has its own insurgent movement and the Greens vote share is creeping up as well. This is not about the parties that are benefitting its about the establishment parties across the continent being too arrogant to recognise their own faults!

Apologies - and there was me having read many of your posts and thinking you were just another moaning kipper:)

DavidL

After the referendum I have serious reservations about Yougov's reliability. Is there an ICM tomorrow? If that shows a Tory lead the feathers may start to fly.

manofkent2014

felix said:

manofkent2014 said:

felix said:

manofkent2014 said:

felix said:

anotherDave said:

So even if you magic away 23% of UKIP support, Mr Reckless still wins.

What a guy!

Hardly magic - lots of 2010 no-voters are probably never voters and serial moaners!

And they wonder why people are turning their backs on the establishment parties?

People are doing that all over the world - many of them are disillusioned with the political establishment and yet you want them to vote for ex-conservatives who have seen the light?
Clearly UKIP wish to pretend they are breaking the mould, etc but many of us have been around long enough to know this has been tried before - remember Shirley Williams, etc., etc

Oh dear. I said nothing about UKIP in my post Yes people are turning their backs on the establishment all over Europe (I'm not so sure about much of the rest of the world) and the reason why they are is because arrogant condescending establishment types dismiss their potentially valid concerns at the current establishment as nothing more than 'serial moaning'.

My party affiliations are irrelevant in this case because its not just UKIP that are benefitting. In case you hadn't noticed Scotland has its own insurgent movement and the Greens vote share is creeping up as well. This is not about the parties that are benefitting its about the establishment parties across the continent being too arrogant to recognise their own faults!

Apologies - and there was me having read many of your posts and thinking you were just another moaning kipper:)

Don't mention it. From where your head must be lodged I can understand why its so easy to get confused

Luckyguy1983

felix said:

manofkent2014 said:

felix said:

anotherDave said:

So even if you magic away 23% of UKIP support, Mr Reckless still wins.

What a guy!

Hardly magic - lots of 2010 no-voters are probably never voters and serial moaners!

And they wonder why people are turning their backs on the establishment parties?

People are doing that all over the world - many of them are disillusioned with the political establishment and yet you want them to vote for ex-conservatives who have seen the light?
Clearly UKIP wish to pretend they are breaking the mould, etc but many of us have been around long enough to know this has been tried before - remember Shirley Williams, etc., etc

Shirley Williams attends bloody Bilderberg for goodness sake! A more establishment figure you could hardly wish to find!

You can easily see who's anti-establishment by seeing whether the establishment is anti-them. That's UKIP.

Paul_Mid_Beds

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

When antifrank said this was going to be close is this what he meant?

But even applying the 50% discount on non voters (which has stood the test of time) UKIP is currently ahead.

The key for me is the effect of the Clacton result. If that gives UKIP a lift they may just swing this. If it is closer than currently expected Reckless will have lived up to his name and will pay the price.

Labour have no chance. Once again, they are not players. How will their squeezed vote split?

59% of Labour supporters think UKIP is a racist party.

What that dosent say is how many of that 59% of them either:

* Think they are a racist party but are not greatly bothered
* Think they are a racist party but secretly rather approve of this if it keeps immigration down
* Think they are not racist enough.

While racism is the sin against the holy ghost for the elite, many other people are not particularly exercised by it as an issue unless it involves nastiness/rudeness to invididual people.

felix

Ironically and to be more serious I do believe that much of the disillusionment with politicians is understandable and real. However, an even bigger concern to me is the failure of many ordinary people, especially in Europe, to understand that living beyond your means is not an option. It is this failure which leads the politicians to make promises they can not fulfil and provides further disillusionment in its turn.

Roger

Alanbrooke

"You have to hand it to Blair, he's done more damage to the Murdochs than Miliband and his army of moany lawyers."

So his wife and Blair romped to use a SUNism. Perhaps if he'd married someone his own age they could have grown old gracefully together....
This made me laugh out loud!

"The Freuds were assigned seats at Cherie’s top table but failed to turn up, leaving two starkly empty spaces. They also holidayed separately on different boats in the Mediterranean"

Life's a bitch!

felix

manofkent2014 said:

felix said:

manofkent2014 said:

felix said:

manofkent2014 said:

felix said:

anotherDave said:

So even if you magic away 23% of UKIP support, Mr Reckless still wins.

What a guy!

Hardly magic - lots of 2010 no-voters are probably never voters and serial moaners!

And they wonder why people are turning their backs on the establishment parties?

People are doing that all over the world - many of them are disillusioned with the political establishment and yet you want them to vote for ex-conservatives who have seen the light?
Clearly UKIP wish to pretend they are breaking the mould, etc but many of us have been around long enough to know this has been tried before - remember Shirley Williams, etc., etc

Oh dear. I said nothing about UKIP in my post Yes people are turning their backs on the establishment all over Europe (I'm not so sure about much of the rest of the world) and the reason why they are is because arrogant condescending establishment types dismiss their potentially valid concerns at the current establishment as nothing more than 'serial moaning'.

My party affiliations are irrelevant in this case because its not just UKIP that are benefitting. In case you hadn't noticed Scotland has its own insurgent movement and the Greens vote share is creeping up as well. This is not about the parties that are benefitting its about the establishment parties across the continent being too arrogant to recognise their own faults!

Apologies - and there was me having read many of your posts and thinking you were just another moaning kipper:)

Don't mention it. From where your head must be lodged I can understand why its so easy to get confused

Lol - ok apology withdrawn and confusion is gone.

SandyRentool

"Others including LD": 4%. How long before we ditch the "including LD" bit and just call them 'Others"?

If a post conference bounce sees the LDs scoring sub-5% in two by-elections this week,won't they be tempted to ditch Clegg, end the coalition early and switch to the Farronite 451?

MarkSenior

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

MarkSenior said:

You are living in a fantasy world which bears no relation to reality

TY Malcolm G!

I based the LD surviving seats on putting the lattest poll figures into Baxter. In fact I gave the Libs 13 including one gain as against 11 in Baxter.

Inevitably I will have got one or two wrong as I'm not a prophet, however council elections don't always make good predictors of general elections anymore than Scottish parliament elections make good predictions of independence referendums.

Ok Lets ignore the clearly differing performance by Lib Dems in some council areas and let's ignore the Lord Ashcroft marginal polls which back up those results and for example show the Lib Dems 18% ahead in Sutton and Cheam and just rely on you putting the latest national poll figures into Baxter and assume a universal swing everywhere . Ludicrous .

TheScreamingEagles

DavidL said:

After the referendum I have serious reservations about Yougov's reliability. Is there an ICM tomorrow? If that shows a Tory lead the feathers may start to fly.

I'm expecting that a week tomorrow.

I'm expecting the Ipsos-Mori this week. Last month it had the Tories ahead by 1%

Alanbrooke

Roger said:

Alanbrooke

"You have to hand it to Blair, he's done more damage to the Murdochs than Miliband and his army of moany lawyers."

So his wife and Blair romped to use a SUNism. Perhaps if he'd married someone his own age they could have grown old gracefully together....
This made me laugh out loud!

"The Freuds were assigned seats at Cherie’s top table but failed to turn up, leaving two starkly empty spaces. They also holidayed separately on different boats in the Mediterranean"

Life's a bitch!

I'm starting to think Tony really was a 5 times a night stallion, the Austin Powers of our age.

initforthemoney

TheScreamingEagles said:

59% of Labour supporters think UKIP is a racist party.

what proportion of labour supporters are racist?

numbertwelve

Re Ed Miliband and 'hanging on': I think the time has passed when a leader could lose a general election and be allowed to trot along merrily regardless. Kinnock was the last to do so back in 1987. The news cycle is so much faster nowadays and briefings against the person who 'lost the election' would begin almost instantaneously if they tried to hang on.

My genuine feeling is that any leader of the 'big two' has to fall on their sword if they fail to make Number 10, or they will be forced out. Even if Miliband tries to cling on in the event of a loss, the top bods in the Labour Party will make sure he's gone within 6 months of the election IMHO.

Similarly, there is no way a Prime Minister can carry on as party leader after losing an election. Heath was the last to do it in the mid 1970s. Wilson was the last one to stay as party leader and win back Number 10. I just do not think modern circumstances would allow that nowadays.

anotherDave

The age group split on the Survation poll is interesting.

1. UKIP win every age group.
2. UKIP's support seems fairly constant across age groups ~40%.

p.8
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Confidential-Rochester-and-Strood-Constituency-Poll-Weighted_Oct03.pdf

Paul_Mid_Beds

MarkSenior said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

MarkSenior said:

You are living in a fantasy world which bears no relation to reality

TY Malcolm G!

I based the LD surviving seats on putting the lattest poll figures into Baxter. In fact I gave the Libs 13 including one gain as against 11 in Baxter.

Inevitably I will have got one or two wrong as I'm not a prophet, however council elections don't always make good predictors of general elections anymore than Scottish parliament elections make good predictions of independence referendums.

Ok Lets ignore the clearly differing performance by Lib Dems in some council areas and let's ignore the Lord Ashcroft marginal polls which back up those results and for example show the Lib Dems 18% ahead in Sutton and Cheam and just rely on you putting the latest national poll figures into Baxter and assume a universal swing everywhere . Ludicrous .

The point of my post was to demonstrate that a collapse in the Libdem vote disproportionally benefits the tories. Whether the Libs get 11, 13 or 25 seats makes little difference to this.

anotherDave

@TSE
How did you calculate the vote shares above?

If you remove the 'did not vote' from table 5, p.8, the numbers I get are:

Con (216 - 22) 32%
UKIP (281 - 62) 36%
Total (697 - 91)

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Confidential-Rochester-and-Strood-Constituency-Poll-Weighted_Oct03.pdf

hucks67

Why are the Lib Dems still in coalition with those nasty Tories ? If I were a Lib Dem minister I am not sure I would want to continue to share government with a party being described as nasty. Does not make any sense.

MikeK

Are the Dutch and in fact many of our so called allies, lily livered bastards?

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4760/dutch-military-uniform

Verulamius

After Danny's set piece speech, now sitting in the auditorium for the 140 minute debate on public services.

This morning there were a lot of people, including me, not in the auditorium but rather in other rooms as part of the conference. There are lots of training events going on for example. This is not seen on the TV coverage.

AndyJS

felix said:

Overall there has to be still a good chance Reckless will win but I suspect this one will be close enough to seriously discourage other potential defectors.

Rochester is only the 271st most UKIP-friendly constituency according to Ford and Goodwin.

MikeK

It's getting pretty obvious that nearly every second thread presented by TSE is in someway anti UKIP or biased against UKIP. I think that this is a deliberate policy cooked up by TSE to keep his and Mikes end up against the coming deluge.

I don't mind myself but it's getting bloody boring.

manofkent2014

Technical point of order.....

Does the graph above take into consideration the fact that in the poll as a whole over 50% of those questioned who did not vote in 2010 either responded in the poll as 'Don't Know' or 'Will not vote'?

OldKingCole

hucks67 said:

Why are the Lib Dems still in coalition with those nasty Tories ? If I were a Lib Dem minister I am not sure I would want to continue to share government with a party being described as nasty. Does not make any sense.

We're most unused to Coalitions in UK in National Govt at least, but they are common in "other germanic" countries, such as Holland, Germany(!) and Scandinavia. How do parties in those countries refer to their partners?

I must say I don't recall this sort of language from the days of the Lib/Lab pact.

AndyJS

MikeK said:

It's getting pretty obvious that nearly every second thread presented by TSE is in someway anti UKIP or biased against UKIP. I think that this is a deliberate policy cooked up by TSE to keep his and Mikes end up against the coming deluge.

I don't mind myself but it's getting bloody boring.

It's no secret that TSE and OGH are not particularly well disposed towards the purples.

manofkent2014

MikeK said:

It's getting pretty obvious that nearly every second thread presented by TSE is in someway anti UKIP or biased against UKIP. I think that this is a deliberate policy cooked up by TSE to keep his and Mikes end up against the coming deluge.

I don't mind myself but it's getting bloody boring.

Certainly it is something I wouldn't miss but better they feel the need to keep posting such 'observations' than not. If they stop I suspect UKIP's prospects will not be looking up.

But hey its quite good sport shooting down their straw men....

Peter_the_Punter

manofkent2014 said:

MikeK said:

It's getting pretty obvious that nearly every second thread presented by TSE is in someway anti UKIP or biased against UKIP. I think that this is a deliberate policy cooked up by TSE to keep his and Mikes end up against the coming deluge.

I don't mind myself but it's getting bloody boring.

Certainly it is something I wouldn't miss but better they feel the need to keep posting such 'observations' than not. If they stop I suspect UKIP's prospects will not be looking up.

But hey its quite good sport shooting down their straw men....

I don't think either of you are right.

UKIP have been the story of the campaign so far, and may remain so until election day. They have certainly provided the liveliest betting interest.

What's to complain about?

malcolmg

stjohn said:

"STFOHN", (St.John's, The Flat, Occasional Horseracing Nod), is backing Treve to win The Arc.

She was an extremely impressive winner last year and has been "wrong" in her subsequent three races. So there are huge question marks over her and there's no point backing her each way. A repeat win in this race has always been the plan and her trainer feels she is on the way back. She would prefer softer ground but she has won on good ground. She has a nice draw from trap 3.

She will probably run a stinker but if she is back to close to her best she could win comfortably. At 14/1 she looks worth a punt to me.

I'm on!

Treve to win The Arc at 14/1 Corals

I have gone for Taghrooda, should be a good race. Had Gleneagles win earlier only to see it get disqualified.

logical_song

MikeK said:

It's getting pretty obvious that nearly every second thread presented by TSE is in someway anti UKIP or biased against UKIP. I think that this is a deliberate policy cooked up by TSE to keep his and Mikes end up against the coming deluge.

I don't mind myself but it's getting bloody boring.

Are you a 'Kipper?

malcolmg

Verulamius said:

After Danny's set piece speech, now sitting in the auditorium for the 140 minute debate on public services.

This morning there were a lot of people, including me, not in the auditorium but rather in other rooms as part of the conference. There are lots of training events going on for example. This is not seen on the TV coverage.

No police there this year either due to Lib Dems welching on their bill for last year's conference. How could anybody trust these shysters.

JBriskin

[I'm starting to think Tony really was a 5 times a night stallion]

This always worried me. I think I've gone twice, maybe twice. I'm young enough that I'm still aiming for one more twice. But 5? Nutter. Confirmed by his conversion to Catholicism.

nigel4england

manofkent2014 said:

MikeK said:

It's getting pretty obvious that nearly every second thread presented by TSE is in someway anti UKIP or biased against UKIP. I think that this is a deliberate policy cooked up by TSE to keep his and Mikes end up against the coming deluge.

I don't mind myself but it's getting bloody boring.

Certainly it is something I wouldn't miss but better they feel the need to keep posting such 'observations' than not. If they stop I suspect UKIP's prospects will not be looking up.

But hey its quite good sport shooting down their straw men....

It might be that they are way out of touch with the concerns of the common man...

malcolmg

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

MarkSenior said:

You are living in a fantasy world which bears no relation to reality

TY Malcolm G!

I based the LD surviving seats on putting the lattest poll figures into Baxter. In fact I gave the Libs 13 including one gain as against 11 in Baxter.

Inevitably I will have got one or two wrong as I'm not a prophet, however council elections don't always make good predictors of general elections anymore than Scottish parliament elections make good predictions of independence referendums.

see you are as deluded as ever you half witted cretin , you cannot even read a posters name correct. You seen a doctor yet.

JBriskin

That is me showing solidarity with Bianchi. Weird Suzi (in this case I mean Bbc) coverage.

#21C

Flightpath

MikeK said:

Are the Dutch and in fact many of our so called allies, lily livered bastards?

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4760/dutch-military-uniform

A crude comment we are becoming used to. Is this a further extension of the UKIP paradigm of hate?

The Dutch are sending planes to bomb ISIS

TheScreamingEagles

To the deluded Kippers screaming victimisation.

I go where the polling and betting angle takes me.

Clearly you have reading and comprehension issues otherwise you may have missed my threads from just this week which

1) Pointed out backing UKIP in Rochester and Stroud was value which has turned out to be a profitable tip

2) A thread that criticised the Tories for attacking Mark Reckless/Kippers

Ninoinoz

felix said:

anotherDave said:

So even if you magic away 23% of UKIP support, Mr Reckless still wins.

What a guy!

Hardly magic - lots of 2010 no-voters are probably never voters and serial moaners!

You know, the same thing used to be said about African American voters in the USA. Then Barrack Obama came along.

It never ceases to amaze me how pols blame the voters for not turning up to vote when it is clearly the politicians who fail to inspire or give an actual choice.

Judging by the reaction of the legacy parties, UKIP is certainly something different.

hucks67

OldKingCole said:

hucks67 said:

Why are the Lib Dems still in coalition with those nasty Tories ? If I were a Lib Dem minister I am not sure I would want to continue to share government with a party being described as nasty. Does not make any sense.

We're most unused to Coalitions in UK in National Govt at least, but they are common in "other germanic" countries, such as Holland, Germany(!) and Scandinavia. How do parties in those countries refer to their partners?

I must say I don't recall this sort of language from the days of the Lib/Lab pact.

I think other countries generally have more options in regard to who they stay in coalition. If they fall out with one party, they do deals with other parties.

The Lib Dems cannot claim that up to May 2015 they are in favour of all coalition policies, as they think they are fair. Then say that any further welfare policies the Tories follow after May 2015 which are along the same lines, are the work of a nasty party.

I don't think the Lib Dems are doing themselves any favours being in coalition. Their position of taking a hit for the good of the country is a load of nonsense.

I predict a Lab/Lib government from May 2015, which should be more effective than the current coalition, with a genuine belief that policies are good for the country and most people. Labour and Lib Dems have much more in common than some Lib Dems pretend.

TheScreamingEagles

AnotherDave - I took the figures from what Mike supplied and others have posted.

My own calculations look like they are right. You have to look at more than table 5

JBriskin

On Parliament now-

Apparently the social workers are winning.

JBriskin

Kay should help that???

Is Burley god now????

JBriskin

To be fair my social worker worked for the FBI so I have an inherent advantage.

JBriskin

Support guide dogs for the blind!!!! CIA reprehend this woman!!!

JBriskin

I wonder what the motion is??

anotherDave

TheScreamingEagles said:

AnotherDave - I took the figures from what Mike supplied and others have posted.

My own calculations look like they are right. You have to look at more than table 5

Table 5 is the headline figures.

"Today’s survey shows Mr Reckless on 40, with the Tories on 31 ... Labour 25 and the Lib Dems a paltry two."

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2780909/Cameron-shock-MoS-poll-says-second-Ukip-defector-heading-election-win-voters-ignore-PM-s-warning-not-bed-Nigel-Farage.html

p.8
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Confidential-Rochester-and-Strood-Constituency-Poll-Weighted_Oct03.pdf

There are 91 'did not vote': total voters (697-91)

Ukip (281-62) 36%
Con (216-22) 32%

SandyRentool

Interesting exchange on Sunday Politics NE & Cumbria bit: LDs reckon they can hold Redcar; gets pointed out that they are third in the polls behind UKIP; Kipper guest suggest that LDs should vote tactically for UKIP if the want to keep Labour out!

UKIP seemingly targeting Redcar, Hartlepool and Stockton (north, south or both?) in the NE. Surely thy should add South Shields to that list after Thursday's success.

Ninoinoz

MikeK said:

It's getting pretty obvious that nearly every second thread presented by TSE is in someway anti UKIP or biased against UKIP. I think that this is a deliberate policy cooked up by TSE to keep his and Mikes end up against the coming deluge.

I don't mind myself but it's getting bloody boring.

There is only one thing in life worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about.

Oscar Wilde

JBriskin

Oh it's bus pass central. I honestly don't think there's anyone left in Aberdeen without one...

JBriskin

Under 16 years are paying more that 2/3s of the fare!!!!!!


Something must be done.

JBriskin

My bro (brother, literal) used to get his Burger King meals reimbursed by my mum. I think he even got student discount as well. Cheeky bastard.

numbertwelve

SandyRentool said:

Interesting exchange on Sunday Politics NE & Cumbria bit: LDs reckon they can hold Redcar; gets pointed out that they are third in the polls behind UKIP; Kipper guest suggest that LDs should vote tactically for UKIP if the want to keep Labour out!

UKIP seemingly targeting Redcar, Hartlepool and Stockton (north, south or both?) in the NE. Surely thy should add South Shields to that list after Thursday's success.

Redcar is as good as gone, especially as the incumbent is stepping down. Can't imagine a more certain LD loss.

JBriskin

Ha ha!!! The motion is "protecting public services"

I predict much more sense tomorrow. Only the social worker class would be stupid enough to travel to Glasgow at the weekend.

Laugh at the photos now if you want.

CS (common sense) LDs will win in the end.

JBriskin

I hope #marr didn't slip in anything under the radar this week.

I could be Way off message.

TheScreamingEagles

nigel4england said:

manofkent2014 said:

MikeK said:

It's getting pretty obvious that nearly every second thread presented by TSE is in someway anti UKIP or biased against UKIP. I think that this is a deliberate policy cooked up by TSE to keep his and Mikes end up against the coming deluge.

I don't mind myself but it's getting bloody boring.

Certainly it is something I wouldn't miss but better they feel the need to keep posting such 'observations' than not. If they stop I suspect UKIP's prospects will not be looking up.

But hey its quite good sport shooting down their straw men....

It might be that they are way out of touch with the concerns of the common man...

Lol you remind me of the cybernats who kept on telling me that as an out of touch Poshboy English Tory aristo I had no idea what the average Scot was thinking.

I predicted 42% for no on an 82% turnout.

MikeK

Flightpath said:

MikeK said:

Are the Dutch and in fact many of our so called allies, lily livered bastards?

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4760/dutch-military-uniform

A crude comment we are becoming used to. Is this a further extension of the UKIP paradigm of hate?

The Dutch are sending planes to bomb ISIS

Way don't you read the article. It's not about planes but military visibility in Holland itself. Further, why are you bringing UKIP into it?

JBriskin

Bouncy camera - I hope they're not fixing the lottery numbers again.

Plato

It's most entertaining. I still chuckle over Hattie getting totally out of her pram back 5yrs ago when The Sun came out for Tories during their conference.

She tore it in two with great gusto - anyone would think she'd just caught her husband in bed with her sister.

felix said:

Roger said:

OT. Following Mike's comment about another YouGov poll creating drama due to manipulation of the raw data (otherwise known as 'weighting') I wonder how many more they'll have to get wrong before they become known as 'AnythingforaheadlineGov'?

Oh dear - the left-wing bitterness about a poll they don't like reaches new depths.

AlastairMeeks

*coughs*

FPT:

antifrank said:

For those getting very excited about the Survation Rochester & Strood poll, consider this:

http://survation.com/newark-by-election-poll-survation-the-sun/

Survation are generally the pollsters that find the highest levels of support for UKIP. In Newark on the night the result marginally overstated UKIP, substantially overstated Labour and significantly understated the Conservatives.

Lord Ashcroft's poll was much closer to the final result (though it still understated the Conservatives and overstated Labour and UKIP):

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/06/tories-set-hold-newark/

This looks likely to be very close to me.

@DavidL: yes.

FrankBooth

Plato said:

It's most entertaining. I still chuckle over Hattie getting totally out of her pram back 5yrs ago when The Sun came out for Tories during their conference.

She tore it in two with great gusto - anyone would think she'd just caught her husband in bed with her sister.

felix said:

Roger said:

OT. Following Mike's comment about another YouGov poll creating drama due to manipulation of the raw data (otherwise known as 'weighting') I wonder how many more they'll have to get wrong before they become known as 'AnythingforaheadlineGov'?

Oh dear - the left-wing bitterness about a poll they don't like reaches new depths.

Did she? I remember the union guy doing it, not sure about Harriet.

MarqueeMark

MikeK said:

It's getting pretty obvious that nearly every second thread presented by TSE is in someway anti UKIP or biased against UKIP. I think that this is a deliberate policy cooked up by TSE to keep his and Mikes end up against the coming deluge.

I don't mind myself but it's getting bloody boring.

Of course you mind, or you wouldn't mention it.

If you feel hard done by, think of those poor people who believe Ed isn't crap....

EDIT: actually, IS there anyone who doesn't think Ed is crap?

MikeK

logical_song said:

MikeK said:

It's getting pretty obvious that nearly every second thread presented by TSE is in someway anti UKIP or biased against UKIP. I think that this is a deliberate policy cooked up by TSE to keep his and Mikes end up against the coming deluge.

I don't mind myself but it's getting bloody boring.

Are you a 'Kipper?

Yes, and though they say pride goes before a fall, a very proud member of The Peoples Army.

JBriskin

Do you read the Sun, Plato?

numbertwelve

hucks67 said:

OldKingCole said:

hucks67 said:

Why are the Lib Dems still in coalition with those nasty Tories ? If I were a Lib Dem minister I am not sure I would want to continue to share government with a party being described as nasty. Does not make any sense.

We're most unused to Coalitions in UK in National Govt at least, but they are common in "other germanic" countries, such as Holland, Germany(!) and Scandinavia. How do parties in those countries refer to their partners?

I must say I don't recall this sort of language from the days of the Lib/Lab pact.

I think other countries generally have more options in regard to who they stay in coalition. If they fall out with one party, they do deals with other parties.

The Lib Dems cannot claim that up to May 2015 they are in favour of all coalition policies, as they think they are fair. Then say that any further welfare policies the Tories follow after May 2015 which are along the same lines, are the work of a nasty party.

I don't think the Lib Dems are doing themselves any favours being in coalition. Their position of taking a hit for the good of the country is a load of nonsense.

I predict a Lab/Lib government from May 2015, which should be more effective than the current coalition, with a genuine belief that policies are good for the country and most people. Labour and Lib Dems have much more in common than some Lib Dems pretend.

Interestingly, Germany's liberals who held the balance of power for most of the post-war years have pretty much died a death after supporting Merkels government. The parallels with the LDs are not exact (the FDP is a much more economically-liberal party than the SDP-influenced Lib Dems) but it does go to show that third party squeezes - dramatic third party squeezes for that matter - can and do happen.

There is a level of wishful thinking from the Lib Dems that 2015 won't be as bad as they fear. I still think there's value in sub 20 seats.

Blueberry

Fair play to Wm Hill for putting this exotic list together:

Nobel Peace Prize: 11/4 Pope Francis, 6/1 Denis Mukwege, 8/1 Ban-Ki Moon, 10/1 Edward Snowden, 10/1 Yuan Longping, 12/1 Gene Sharp, 12/1 Helmut Kohl, 14/1 Catherine Hamlin; 16/1 Novaya Gazeta; 20/1 Catherine Ashton; 20/1 Frank Mugisha; 20/1 Malala Yousafzai; 20/1 Mary Robinson; 25/1 Ales Bialitski; 25/1 Bill Clinton; 25/1 Hu Jia; 33/1 Chelsea Manning; 33/1 Nansen Dialogue Network; 33/1 Sima Samar; 33/1 The International Space Station Organisation; 33/1 The People of Lampedusa; 40/1 James Anaya; 40/1 Julian Assange; 40/1 Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo; 50/1 Angelina Jolie; 50/1 Jose Mujica; 50/1 Tony Blair; 66/1 Bertie Ahern; 100/1 Facebook; 100/1 National Priorities Project

Scratching my head to think who half of them actually are.

JBriskin

LDs totally getting back on track now. I bet I'd have a right riot there. They sell Tennants in Glasgow don't they???

Itajai

anotherDave said:

The age group split on the Survation poll is interesting.

1. UKIP win every age group.
2. UKIP's support seems fairly constant across age groups ~40%.

p.8
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Confidential-Rochester-and-Strood-Constituency-Poll-Weighted_Oct03.pdf

Is that another UKIP myth busted?
I thought only the old, the poor, the thick, and the racist voted UKIP?

JBriskin

They cut his mircorphone!!!! CIA are not allowing LDs free speech!!!!!