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SystemSystem Posts: 12,615
edited October 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation Rochester Poll has UKIP 9% ahead

This leads me to conclude that my assumption that Mark Reckless is no Douglas Carswell in terms of popularity in his seat the way Douglas Carswell is regarded in Clacton.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,943
    France is doomed
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    fpt According to OGH UKIP had a double digit lead in the pre-defection polling - maybe the tide has already turned on Reckless,
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    UKIP Vote is less than 2 points below Medway's Euro election voteshare
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This is going to be very close.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,004
    edited October 2014
    "A 42 point lead on leadership over Miliband", and over a 20 point lead on the Economy.

    Yet some people are still betting on a Labour majority?
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Is there going to be a Clacton poll? I thought one was mentioned.

    The Rochester poll shows a good fight!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    manofkent2014 said:

    UKIP Vote is less than 2 points below Medway's Euro election voteshare

    So - also falling.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Not sure I'm overly happy with the thread leader on Rochester rather than the National poll by YouGov … hmmm ...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,743
    FPT: Interesting poll taken at Peak Tory time at the end of their conference. Reckless not home and dry but his favourite status looks accurate. And the LibDem vote completely evaporating again, as in the H&M poll.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    test
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    audreyanne said:

    Not sure I'm overly happy with the thread leader on Rochester rather than the National poll by YouGov … hmmm ...

    Well you don't have to participate. I'm sure everyone will understand....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,931
    Tricky to tell who will win. Glad I'm arbed on this one, though I've kept all the profit on a UKIP win.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    NickPalmer said:

    FPT: Interesting poll taken at Peak Tory time at the end of their conference. Reckless not home and dry but his favourite status looks accurate. And the LibDem vote completely evaporating again, as in the H&M poll.

    I believe other Scandnavian budget retailers will vote the same way as H&M.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,818
    felix said:

    manofkent2014 said:

    UKIP Vote is less than 2 points below Medway's Euro election voteshare

    So - also falling.
    Not sure about that - would think (without looking closely) that Rochester one of UKIP's less good areas in Medway at the Euros, so could easily be 'Up' amongst the same electorate.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,943
    lol

    tories have a lead on every issue bar health.

    Just as well Ed kept all his policies to himself then.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,582
    Total obliteration of the LibDems giving the UKIP souffle some additional hot air....?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,004
    Still (probably) over a month to go until Rochester as well..
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,167
    Update

    Wordpress messed up, and it omitted a paragraph from the thread header

    I've not got the fieldwork dates to hand, but I'm expecting this was conducted in the aftermath of the Tory conference, UKIP had a 9% lead, the bookies making Reckless favourite seem about right, however Mike Smithson said he understood prior to Reckless' defection, there was polling showing Reckless having a double digit lead, so there may wall be worry for the purples that the trend is not their friend.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    audreyanne said:

    Not sure I'm overly happy with the thread leader on Rochester rather than the National poll by YouGov … hmmm ...

    Bettingwise, Rochester is more interesting, not least because it will happen before GE2015, and because we can now see there is all to play for.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,433
    More bar charts? Cool!

    "Only the LibDems CAN'T beat UKIP in Rochester!"
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    felix said:

    fpt According to OGH UKIP had a double digit lead in the pre-defection polling - maybe the tide has already turned on Reckless,

    ????

    Imaginary polls don't count.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,582
    NickPalmer said:

    FPT: Interesting poll taken at Peak Tory time at the end of their conference. Reckless not home and dry but his favourite status looks accurate. And the LibDem vote completely evaporating again, as in the H&M poll.

    Oh, it's not Peak Tory time yet Nick. Nowhere near....
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    Be interesting to see how many don't-knows there are.

    I can't see many of those Labour voters switching to Tory.

    So all things equal, looking good for Reckless... and UKIP...
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    NickPalmer said:

    FPT: Interesting poll taken at Peak Tory time at the end of their conference. Reckless not home and dry but his favourite status looks accurate. And the LibDem vote completely evaporating again, as in the H&M poll.

    The Lib Dems should merge with the Greens, while they still can as a senior partner.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Have we any more polls tonight? Are we waiting for an Angus Reid showing the LibDems getting a pre-conference boost to 10%?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2014
    Looks like my £200 bet on Reckless (from yesterday) is safe.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited October 2014
    Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)

    Survation ‏@Survation 28s27 seconds ago
    Where is the UKIP vote coming from? For starters, 42% of people who say they will vote UKIP in the by-election voted Conservative in 2010.

    It proves that the onslaught on Mr Reckless by Cammo and his tory minions has had little impact, in spite of a most hard hitting and spiteful attack.

    Do we have a date for this by-election?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,582
    On the timing of the Rochester by-election - maybe it will be left to fester a while before being called?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    MikeK said:

    Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)

    Survation ‏@Survation 28s27 seconds ago
    Where is the UKIP vote coming from? For starters, 42% of people who say they will vote UKIP in the by-election voted Conservative in 2010.

    It proves that the onslaught on Mr Reckless by Cammo and his tory minions has had little impact, in spite of a most hard hitting and spiteful attack.

    Do we have a date for this by-election?

    Oh dear - you can smell the panic in that post.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,167
    The fieldwork was On 1st-3rd October

    http://survation.com/rochester-strood-by-election-poll-survation-for-mail-on-sunday/
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Big Mo' for UKIP after Clacton should be factored, as well...
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    I hadn't realised that the Tory candidate in Clacton is Giles Watling who played the British officer in Allo Allo. Is Douglas Carswell still expected to win 60+% of the vote?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,167
    From the Sunday Times

    David Cameron’s net approval rating is up to minus four (45% think he is doing well, 49% doing badly), his best rating since February 2012. By contrast, just 22% think Miliband is doing a good job, while 68% do not, a rating of minus 46. Even among Labour voters, 37% think the party leader is doing badly.

    Crucially, the Tories appear to be nullifying Labour’s advantage on the key issue of the NHS.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,433
    YouGov tables... must have YouGov tables...

    ELBOW so far this week:

    Lab 35.8
    Con 32.0
    UKIP 14.6
    LD 7.5
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited October 2014
    Reckless went for the orange juice strategy; like Miliband's bacon butty strategy it is hard to see what can go wrong and 1st or 2nd is secure.

    (Edit cus I got to use a semi-colon!!)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    I predict Thursday will see the Tories win 0& of Parliamentary by elections

    LAB will win 50%

    Next weeks BJESUS could well show a significant move away from LAB maj with Populus/LA/YG on Monday only to come
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Interesting that Labour look to be out of the running in a seat they held not all that long ago. Apart from London they barely exist in southern England.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    felix said:

    MikeK said:

    Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)

    Survation ‏@Survation 28s27 seconds ago
    Where is the UKIP vote coming from? For starters, 42% of people who say they will vote UKIP in the by-election voted Conservative in 2010.

    It proves that the onslaught on Mr Reckless by Cammo and his tory minions has had little impact, in spite of a most hard hitting and spiteful attack.

    Do we have a date for this by-election?

    Oh dear - you can smell the panic in that post.
    WTFAYTA?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Rather late in the day I know, but there's a brilliant cartoon by Matt in today's Daily Telegraph :

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,818
    As a slight aside - I know that we have previously been confused about the difference between the Lib Dem national polling figures, and the Ashcroft polls in the marginals but I am starting to wonder if these by-elections and by-election polls are showing a pattern that we will see across the GE - that of total wipe our of Lib Dem votes in seats that they don't care about.

    Perhaps we should be re-looking at the Lib Dem lost deposit market - because if the by-elections are any indication then it could be 200+
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Reckless picking up a decent chunk of 2010 Labour voters.

    Reckless could win the by election and turn this seat into a three way battle next May.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    UKIP voters
    2010-Con 40%, 2010-Lab 18.5%, 2010-LD 27.8%

    Con voters
    2010-Con 55.9%, 2010-Lab 3.1%, 2010-LD 21.1%

    Lab voters
    2010-Con 2.4%, 2010-Lab 76.9%, 2010-LD 24.3%

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Confidential-Rochester-and-Strood-Constituency-Poll-Weighted_Oct03.pdf

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Betfair most seats market surprisingly barely changed
    Labour 1.75
    Conservative 2.36

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,167
    anotherDave said:

    felix said:

    fpt According to OGH UKIP had a double digit lead in the pre-defection polling - maybe the tide has already turned on Reckless,

    ????

    Imaginary polls don't count.
    Mike tweeted about it last week, there have been polls in the last month in Rochester & Strood and Kettering asking how they would vote if their MP defected to UKIP.

    The R&S poll had Reckless leading by double digits.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Update

    Wordpress messed up, and it omitted a paragraph from the thread header

    I've not got the fieldwork dates to hand, but I'm expecting this was conducted in the aftermath of the Tory conference, UKIP had a 9% lead, the bookies making Reckless favourite seem about right, however Mike Smithson said he understood prior to Reckless' defection, there was polling showing Reckless having a double digit lead, so there may wall be worry for the purples that the trend is not their friend.

    Alternatively it might mean their lead is now 9% in instead of 10% previously.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,271
    MikeK said:

    Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)

    Survation ‏@Survation 28s27 seconds ago
    Where is the UKIP vote coming from? For starters, 42% of people who say they will vote UKIP in the by-election voted Conservative in 2010.

    It proves that the onslaught on Mr Reckless by Cammo and his tory minions has had little impact, in spite of a most hard hitting and spiteful attack.

    Do we have a date for this by-election?

    Or perhaps because of them?

    That said, though for reasons I can't put my finger on I don't entirely trust Yougov, if the Tories are leading in the polls, there really is nothing for Ed is crap to fall back on. Look at this gogglebox clip posted on Guido:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOB5SxWOWCQ
    The interesting thing to note isn't the rather cruel (but nevertheless real) response to Milliband's physical shortcomings, it's that even the Labour family (with the loud gentleman) have not grasped the actual concept of EVFEL (or more accurately its current absence) -this suggests to me that once this is patiently explained, it's a sit back and watch the fireworks conversation.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    bigjohnowls said:

    Betfair most seats market surprisingly barely changed
    Labour 1.75
    Conservative 2.36

    Clearly Betfair is only used by inside traders and Ireland should be bombed.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Easterross said:

    I hadn't realised that the Tory candidate in Clacton is Giles Watling who played the British officer in Allo Allo. Is Douglas Carswell still expected to win 60+% of the vote?

    He might get 70% if some of the recent reports are accurate, with almost everyone stopped in the high street saying they were going to vote for him.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    anotherDave said:

    felix said:

    fpt According to OGH UKIP had a double digit lead in the pre-defection polling - maybe the tide has already turned on Reckless,

    ????

    Imaginary polls don't count.
    Mike tweeted about it last week, there have been polls in the last month in Rochester & Strood and Kettering asking how they would vote if their MP defected to UKIP.

    The R&S poll had Reckless leading by double digits.
    If you're going to quote numbers, back them up.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Guido's posting googlebox clips now? Makes sense.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    PP still have UKIP at 8/11 to win Rochester on the back of this poll. That looks generous, but DYOR.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,271
    Socrates said:

    NickPalmer said:

    FPT: Interesting poll taken at Peak Tory time at the end of their conference. Reckless not home and dry but his favourite status looks accurate. And the LibDem vote completely evaporating again, as in the H&M poll.

    The Lib Dems should merge with the Greens, while they still can as a senior partner.
    That's a very good idea. The Green Democrats. It's high time they got rid of the 'Liberal' misnomer anyway. It's a good idea for the Lib Dems. Not for the Greens.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    "YouGov sees the Tories extending their lead."
    After Ed Miliband's Omnishambles Speech.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    AndyJS said:

    Easterross said:

    I hadn't realised that the Tory candidate in Clacton is Giles Watling who played the British officer in Allo Allo. Is Douglas Carswell still expected to win 60+% of the vote?

    He might get 70% if some of the recent reports are accurate, with almost everyone stopped in the high street saying they were going to vote for him.
    You mean Guido? Don't believe it.

    The seat is a pick and mix bag.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    Given Carswell's reputation for constant campaigning in his constituency had resulted in him being one of a very few Tory MP's who had seen his local association grow in recent years. Therefore it is hardly a surprise that he is further ahead in his polls. Tendring also had a larger UKIP lead 23% than Medway 19%. So it indicates a 10 point reduction on the UKIP lead. However the UKIP vote share less than two points shy of their Euros vote share. It would seem to be the others figure (particularly the Greens figure that is down)

    However that a 19 point lead translates into a 9 point Westminster poll lead should send alarm bells throughout the Tory party. These are the constituencies in Kent where at the Euros UKIP had a lead in excess of 10 points (the amount the UKIP lead has dropped in this poll)

    Thanet South
    Thanet North
    Sittingbourne & Sheppey (Swale)
    Gravesham
    Dartford
    Folkestone
    Dover
    Chatham & Aylesford (Medway)
    Gillingham & Rainham (Medway)


    I doubt the Tories will want to expend resources defending these seats in 2015
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2014
    O/T:

    Genesis fans may be interested in the documentary currently on BBC2.

    Edit: the documentary has finished, they're showing TOTP footage now.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,167
    anotherDave said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    anotherDave said:

    felix said:

    fpt According to OGH UKIP had a double digit lead in the pre-defection polling - maybe the tide has already turned on Reckless,

    ????

    Imaginary polls don't count.
    Mike tweeted about it last week, there have been polls in the last month in Rochester & Strood and Kettering asking how they would vote if their MP defected to UKIP.

    The R&S poll had Reckless leading by double digits.
    If you're going to quote numbers, back them up.
    I trust Mike, he was only repeating what he was told.

    Next time he is on, ask him for the figures if he has them
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Isn't it just.

    It's incredible how quickly the mood in Labour has shifted from It'll Be All Right On The Night to Outspoken Doubts

    EdM needs to do something serious if he's to stand a chance of pulling back some confidence in his own troops and donors. There's more than a whiff of We're Going To Lose emanating off their own side.
    felix said:

    Interesting that Labour look to be out of the running in a seat they held not all that long ago. Apart from London they barely exist in southern England.

  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    " sees the Tories extending their lead"

    I like it TSE, I like it!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Feckless only got single digit lead vs empty chair. If the tory open primary can find another local ex bread star, then the pig dog can hang up his turncoat.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited October 2014
    nigel4england said:
    » show previous quotes
    Carswell winning will surprise no-one but I think the Tories may beat Reckless, but even if they lose but come close it will put off any potential defectors.

    Think Ed is toast to be honest.




    UKIP will win both. Whoever the other defector was who had cold feet will be emboldened and most probably go through with it this time, at a time for maximum exposure.A few others will be working out if it is worth it for them to cross over or try and fight UKIP in May. Others will be worried about what will happen in their seat when UKIP gain votes.

    The papers will be hunting down the defectors. Murdoch will continue tweeting kisses to Nigel.

    Ed will just get the popcorn out and enjoy the show.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Survation Rochester & Strood

    Female voting intentions

    UKIP 34.9%
    CONSERVATIVES 33%
    LABOUR 28.7%
    LIBDEMS 2.4%
    GREENS 1%

    Thats very interesting, the ladies are leading the UKIP surge in R&S.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited October 2014
    manofkent2014 said:

    Given Carswell's reputation for constant campaigning in his constituency had resulted in him being one of a very few Tory MP's who had seen his local association grow in recent years. Therefore it is hardly a surprise that he is further ahead in his polls. Tendring also had a larger UKIP lead 23% than Medway 19%. So it indicates a 10 point reduction on the UKIP lead. However the UKIP vote share less than two points shy of their Euros vote share. It would seem to be the others figure (particularly the Greens figure that is down)

    However that a 19 point lead translates into a 9 point Westminster poll lead should send alarm bells throughout the Tory party. These are the constituencies in Kent where at the Euros UKIP had a lead in excess of 10 points (the amount the UKIP lead has dropped in this poll)

    Thanet South
    Thanet North
    Sittingbourne & Sheppey (Swale)
    Gravesham
    Dartford
    Folkestone
    Dover
    Chatham & Aylesford (Medway)
    Gillingham & Rainham (Medway)


    I doubt the Tories will want to expend resources defending these seats in 2015

    "[Rochester] Seat is 271st on Ukip-friendly list. 15 below Newark. 270 below Clacton."

    twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/518349981779251201
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    TSE did say on FPT that of the polls conducted entirely during October - 66% had the Tories in the lead.

    That seems statistically significant.
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    MikeK said:

    Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)

    Survation ‏@Survation 28s27 seconds ago
    Where is the UKIP vote coming from? For starters, 42% of people who say they will vote UKIP in the by-election voted Conservative in 2010.

    It proves that the onslaught on Mr Reckless by Cammo and his tory minions has had little impact, in spite of a most hard hitting and spiteful attack.

    Do we have a date for this by-election?

    Or perhaps because of them?

    That said, though for reasons I can't put my finger on I don't entirely trust Yougov, if the Tories are leading in the polls, there really is nothing for Ed is crap to fall back on. Look at this gogglebox clip posted on Guido:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOB5SxWOWCQ
    The interesting thing to note isn't the rather cruel (but nevertheless real) response to Milliband's physical shortcomings, it's that even the Labour family (with the loud gentleman) have not grasped the actual concept of EVFEL (or more accurately its current absence) -this suggests to me that once this is patiently explained, it's a sit back and watch the fireworks conversation.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,004
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    From the Sunday Times

    David Cameron’s net approval rating is up to minus four (45% think he is doing well, 49% doing badly), his best rating since February 2012. By contrast, just 22% think Miliband is doing a good job, while 68% do not, a rating of minus 46. Even among Labour voters, 37% think the party leader is doing badly.

    Crucially, the Tories appear to be nullifying Labour’s advantage on the key issue of the NHS.

    Miliband to be pounded like a dockside hooker next year?

  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    MikeK said:

    Survation Rochester & Strood

    Female voting intentions

    UKIP 34.9%
    CONSERVATIVES 33%
    LABOUR 28.7%
    LIBDEMS 2.4%
    GREENS 1%

    Thats very interesting, the ladies are leading the UKIP surge in R&S.

    Eh???
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,167
    Plato said:

    TSE did say on FPT that of the polls conducted entirely during October - 66% had the Tories in the lead.

    That seems statistically significant.

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    MikeK said:

    Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)

    Survation ‏@Survation 28s27 seconds ago
    Where is the UKIP vote coming from? For starters, 42% of people who say they will vote UKIP in the by-election voted Conservative in 2010.

    It proves that the onslaught on Mr Reckless by Cammo and his tory minions has had little impact, in spite of a most hard hitting and spiteful attack.

    Do we have a date for this by-election?

    Or perhaps because of them?

    That said, though for reasons I can't put my finger on I don't entirely trust Yougov, if the Tories are leading in the polls, there really is nothing for Ed is crap to fall back on. Look at this gogglebox clip posted on Guido:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOB5SxWOWCQ
    The interesting thing to note isn't the rather cruel (but nevertheless real) response to Milliband's physical shortcomings, it's that even the Labour family (with the loud gentleman) have not grasped the actual concept of EVFEL (or more accurately its current absence) -this suggests to me that once this is patiently explained, it's a sit back and watch the fireworks conversation.
    Not really, there's only been three Westminster VI polls conducted entirely in October.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Plato you give PB tories such a bad name, can you please leave PB torying to the neo-PB toryies who do a much more entertaining job and thus leave us PB tories to do our PB tory thing.

    Thanks
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    You know it is only 4 October now?
    Plato said:

    TSE did say on FPT that of the polls conducted entirely during October - 66% had the Tories in the lead.

    That seems statistically significant.

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    MikeK said:

    Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)

    Survation ‏@Survation 28s27 seconds ago
    Where is the UKIP vote coming from? For starters, 42% of people who say they will vote UKIP in the by-election voted Conservative in 2010.

    It proves that the onslaught on Mr Reckless by Cammo and his tory minions has had little impact, in spite of a most hard hitting and spiteful attack.

    Do we have a date for this by-election?

    Or perhaps because of them?

    That said, though for reasons I can't put my finger on I don't entirely trust Yougov, if the Tories are leading in the polls, there really is nothing for Ed is crap to fall back on. Look at this gogglebox clip posted on Guido:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOB5SxWOWCQ
    The interesting thing to note isn't the rather cruel (but nevertheless real) response to Milliband's physical shortcomings, it's that even the Labour family (with the loud gentleman) have not grasped the actual concept of EVFEL (or more accurately its current absence) -this suggests to me that once this is patiently explained, it's a sit back and watch the fireworks conversation.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MikeK said:

    Survation Rochester & Strood

    Female voting intentions

    UKIP 34.9%
    CONSERVATIVES 33%
    LABOUR 28.7%
    LIBDEMS 2.4%
    GREENS 1%

    Thats very interesting, the ladies are leading the UKIP surge in R&S.

    What's the sample size?
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    anotherDave said:

    manofkent2014 said:

    Given Carswell's reputation for constant campaigning in his constituency had resulted in him being one of a very few Tory MP's who had seen his local association grow in recent years. Therefore it is hardly a surprise that he is further ahead in his polls. Tendring also had a larger UKIP lead 23% than Medway 19%. So it indicates a 10 point reduction on the UKIP lead. However the UKIP vote share less than two points shy of their Euros vote share. It would seem to be the others figure (particularly the Greens figure that is down)

    However that a 19 point lead translates into a 9 point Westminster poll lead should send alarm bells throughout the Tory party. These are the constituencies in Kent where at the Euros UKIP had a lead in excess of 10 points (the amount the UKIP lead has dropped in this poll)

    Thanet South
    Thanet North
    Sittingbourne & Sheppey (Swale)
    Gravesham
    Dartford
    Folkestone
    Dover
    Chatham & Aylesford (Medway)
    Gillingham & Rainham (Medway)


    I doubt the Tories will want to expend resources defending these seats in 2015

    "[Rochester] Seat is 271st on Ukip-friendly list. 15 below Newark. 270 below Clacton."

    twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/518349981779251201
    Our dear friend Mr Goodwin. I don't think he really knows whats going on. After all Thanet South is number 142 as well. My guess is he's overlooked a number of factors (like Kent being a Grammar School County) in his model but still by being the first to get a book out he's managed to corner the market.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,167
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    From the Sunday Times

    David Cameron’s net approval rating is up to minus four (45% think he is doing well, 49% doing badly), his best rating since February 2012. By contrast, just 22% think Miliband is doing a good job, while 68% do not, a rating of minus 46. Even among Labour voters, 37% think the party leader is doing badly.

    Crucially, the Tories appear to be nullifying Labour’s advantage on the key issue of the NHS.

    Miliband to be pounded like a dockside hooker next year?

    Nah, but I feel more confident on my the Tories winning the popular vote next year bets.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,582
    Plato said:



    It's incredible how quickly the mood in Labour has shifted from It'll Be All Right On The Night to Outspoken Doubts

    More like It'll be Alright on the Night to Casualty.....

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    AndyJS said:

    MikeK said:

    Survation Rochester & Strood

    Female voting intentions

    UKIP 34.9%
    CONSERVATIVES 33%
    LABOUR 28.7%
    LIBDEMS 2.4%
    GREENS 1%

    Thats very interesting, the ladies are leading the UKIP surge in R&S.

    What's the sample size?
    Don't know, and I'm not searching the data at this time of night. ;)
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,818
    O/T but as AndyJS appears to be around - I can let you know that we have recently announced 3 Pirate Party candidates for GE2015 (with more to come in due course! :-) ). Party Leader Loz Kaye in Manchester Central; Sam Clark in Salford and Eccles; Mark Chapman (myself) in Vauxhall. Shout if you want any more details.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    What on Earth are you wittering about? And no.
    : ^)
    JBriskin said:

    Plato you give PB tories such a bad name, can you please leave PB torying to the neo-PB toryies who do a much more entertaining job and thus leave us PB tories to do our PB tory thing.

    Thanks

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    Rochester and Strood looks winnable for the Tories to me.

    As far as national voting intention goes, starting to look like Cameron's leadership speech is up there with 2007 for changing the political weather.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    LDs
    "A significant proportion (around 20%) of prior Liberal Democrat voters are now undecided. These undecided Liberal Democrats are the crucial group for the party – will they abstain from voting altogether in 2015 or will they return to the Liberal Democrats or vote for another party?

    The changes in 2015 vote intention among those people who voted Liberal Democrat in 2010 between the first (February-March) and second (May-June) BESIP survey show small increases for the Conservatives, UKIP and the Green Party.

    The worry for the Liberal Democrats is that so far the decline in undecided prior Liberal Democrat voters appears to be benefiting other parties."

    http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/where-if-anywhere-will-liberal-democrat-votes-go-in-the-2015-general-election/#.VDBu9L5h3R2
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,151
    AndyJS said:

    Easterross said:

    I hadn't realised that the Tory candidate in Clacton is Giles Watling who played the British officer in Allo Allo. Is Douglas Carswell still expected to win 60+% of the vote?

    He might get 70% if some of the recent reports are accurate, with almost everyone stopped in the high street saying they were going to vote for him.
    Opinion pollsters conducting face-to-face interviews in shopping centres and high streets was why they used to get it so horribly wrong.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Ah, I thought you were quoting this statistic as something meaningful - clearly not!
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Plato said:

    TSE did say on FPT that of the polls conducted entirely during October - 66% had the Tories in the lead.

    That seems statistically significant.

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    MikeK said:

    Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)

    Survation ‏@Survation 28s27 seconds ago
    Where is the UKIP vote coming from? For starters, 42% of people who say they will vote UKIP in the by-election voted Conservative in 2010.

    It proves that the onslaught on Mr Reckless by Cammo and his tory minions has had little impact, in spite of a most hard hitting and spiteful attack.

    Do we have a date for this by-election?

    Or perhaps because of them?

    That said, though for reasons I can't put my finger on I don't entirely trust Yougov, if the Tories are leading in the polls, there really is nothing for Ed is crap to fall back on. Look at this gogglebox clip posted on Guido:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOB5SxWOWCQ
    The interesting thing to note isn't the rather cruel (but nevertheless real) response to Milliband's physical shortcomings, it's that even the Labour family (with the loud gentleman) have not grasped the actual concept of EVFEL (or more accurately its current absence) -this suggests to me that once this is patiently explained, it's a sit back and watch the fireworks conversation.
    Not really, there's only been three Westminster VI polls conducted entirely in October.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    I never said I didn't like tim.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Plato said:

    What on Earth are you wittering about? And no.
    : ^)

    JBriskin said:

    Plato you give PB tories such a bad name, can you please leave PB torying to the neo-PB toryies who do a much more entertaining job and thus leave us PB tories to do our PB tory thing.

    Thanks

    You tell 'em Plato, get them really riled up. :^D
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    The other thing to consider is whether there will be a knock on boost for UKIP in Rochester should Carswell win and win well in Clacton and if there is another defection in the pipeline for after a Carswell victory would it be timed to take place in the run up to the Rochester by election?
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Sooooo long till the grand prix - I'm not going to make it am I? I could have got up for qualifying - but I don't even have an alarm clock, no wonder they don't like me in weegieland.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A lot of Tories on Twitter seem genuinely surprised by the Rochester opinion poll.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,004
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    From the Sunday Times

    David Cameron’s net approval rating is up to minus four (45% think he is doing well, 49% doing badly), his best rating since February 2012. By contrast, just 22% think Miliband is doing a good job, while 68% do not, a rating of minus 46. Even among Labour voters, 37% think the party leader is doing badly.

    Crucially, the Tories appear to be nullifying Labour’s advantage on the key issue of the NHS.

    Miliband to be pounded like a dockside hooker next year?

    Nah, but I feel more confident on my the Tories winning the popular vote next year bets.
    You're too timid: that's a given.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    manofkent2014 said:

    anotherDave said:

    manofkent2014 said:

    Given Carswell's reputation for constant campaigning in his constituency had resulted in him being one of a very few Tory MP's who had seen his local association grow in recent years. Therefore it is hardly a surprise that he is further ahead in his polls. Tendring also had a larger UKIP lead 23% than Medway 19%. So it indicates a 10 point reduction on the UKIP lead. However the UKIP vote share less than two points shy of their Euros vote share. It would seem to be the others figure (particularly the Greens figure that is down)

    However that a 19 point lead translates into a 9 point Westminster poll lead should send alarm bells throughout the Tory party. These are the constituencies in Kent where at the Euros UKIP had a lead in excess of 10 points (the amount the UKIP lead has dropped in this poll)

    Thanet South
    Thanet North
    Sittingbourne & Sheppey (Swale)
    Gravesham
    Dartford
    Folkestone
    Dover
    Chatham & Aylesford (Medway)
    Gillingham & Rainham (Medway)


    I doubt the Tories will want to expend resources defending these seats in 2015

    "[Rochester] Seat is 271st on Ukip-friendly list. 15 below Newark. 270 below Clacton."

    twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/518349981779251201
    Our dear friend Mr Goodwin. I don't think he really knows whats going on. After all Thanet South is number 142 as well. My guess is he's overlooked a number of factors (like Kent being a Grammar School County) in his model but still by being the first to get a book out he's managed to corner the market.
    So everything we think we know is wrong?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Ha!

    I'm sated on torture porn and ginger snaps right now and feeling mellow... ;^ )
    MikeK said:

    Plato said:

    What on Earth are you wittering about? And no.
    : ^)

    JBriskin said:

    Plato you give PB tories such a bad name, can you please leave PB torying to the neo-PB toryies who do a much more entertaining job and thus leave us PB tories to do our PB tory thing.

    Thanks

    You tell 'em Plato, get them really riled up. :^D
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,743
    MarqueeMark said:

    On the timing of the Rochester by-election - maybe it will be left to fester a while before being called?

    I'm not actually sure, but I believe the position is that anyone in the Commons can move the writ (the Government can vote it down, but it'd be horribly embarrassing), so assuming Carswell is elected on Thursday, he could move the writ next week after he's sworn in, if he wants to frustrate a Tory plan to play it long.

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2014
    Hmm,

    Immediately after reckless defected, I predicted the real odds were something like;

    Ukip 1/3
    Con 3/1
    Lab 8/1

    Looks like I was pretty much spot on.

    Thank you William hill for going 6/5 on UKIP :)
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,818
    AndyJS said:

    A lot of Tories on Twitter seem genuinely surprised by the Rochester opinion poll.

    Which way? They thought that they would be leading, or are surprised by how close it is?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Lennon said:

    AndyJS said:

    A lot of Tories on Twitter seem genuinely surprised by the Rochester opinion poll.

    Which way? They thought that they would be leading, or are surprised by how close it is?
    Mainly the former I think. Expected either a smaller UKIP lead or to be ahead themselves. Maybe due to the reports a few days ago of Reckless facing a hostile reception in the constituency when he met Farage in a pub.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Ukip are still 4/5 with William hill.

    Should be under 1/3
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,785
    peter_from_putney said:

    PP still have UKIP at 8/11 to win Rochester on the back of this poll. That looks generous, but DYOR.

    If Clacton goes as expected, it will probably be 1/2 by Friday morning, PfP.

  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,818
    NickPalmer said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    On the timing of the Rochester by-election - maybe it will be left to fester a while before being called?

    I'm not actually sure, but I believe the position is that anyone in the Commons can move the writ (the Government can vote it down, but it'd be horribly embarrassing), so assuming Carswell is elected on Thursday, he could move the writ next week after he's sworn in, if he wants to frustrate a Tory plan to play it long.

    Interesting and good point - and he wouldn't even really be breaking convention, which as I understand it is the party of the previous MP (which you could argue was UKIP as he defected before resigning his seat)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,965
    anotherDave said:

    LDs
    "A significant proportion (around 20%) of prior Liberal Democrat voters are now undecided. These undecided Liberal Democrats are the crucial group for the party – will they abstain from voting altogether in 2015 or will they return to the Liberal Democrats or vote for another party?

    The changes in 2015 vote intention among those people who voted Liberal Democrat in 2010 between the first (February-March) and second (May-June) BESIP survey show small increases for the Conservatives, UKIP and the Green Party.

    The worry for the Liberal Democrats is that so far the decline in undecided prior Liberal Democrat voters appears to be benefiting other parties."

    http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/where-if-anywhere-will-liberal-democrat-votes-go-in-the-2015-general-election/#.VDBu9L5h3R2

    The LibDems could end up with 8% and fewer than 10 seats, or 15% and perhaps 40.

    I find myself genuinely torn: on the one hand, they continue to register 6-10% in the polls and all the evidence is that their vote is soft; on the other, they've made a ton of gains in local by-elections recently, their local vote share has held up well where they have MPs (even in Portsmouth South), their MPs have by far the best 'net favourability' ratings from constituents, and the Ashcroft marginals poll shows them only having made a small net loss to the Conservative Party.

    Basically, I'm too chicken to play the LibDem seat market - but I'm prepared to bet on them losing a monumental number of deposits.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    [I'm sated on torture porn and ginger snaps right now and feeling mellow...]

    Cool! Which twitter accounts that?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Lennon said:

    O/T but as AndyJS appears to be around - I can let you know that we have recently announced 3 Pirate Party candidates for GE2015 (with more to come in due course! :-) ). Party Leader Loz Kaye in Manchester Central; Sam Clark in Salford and Eccles; Mark Chapman (myself) in Vauxhall. Shout if you want any more details.

    Thanks, I'm updating my candidates' spreadsheet tomorrow after a 3 week hiatus.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    From survation

    88% of those voting UKIP in the by-election would also vote for Reckless in next year’s general election 3% said they wouldn’t and 9% DK

    UKIP voters told us the reason for voting Reckless,was liking UKIP and their policies (70%) vs protest (18%) or liking Reckless (12%).

    Data Tables here:

    http://survation.com/rochester-strood-by-election-poll-survation-for-mail-on-sunday/

    Sample size 1012
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    The latest poll lead for the Conservatives after their conference seems to show how gullible people are about the unrealistic promises to cut taxes, spend more on the NHS and still eliminate the unsustainable deficit.

    Even UKIP are making tax cut promises which appear to increase the deficit from £100billion per year to £200 billion per year.

    We need the Office of Budget Responsibility to audit all the parties manifestos and tell the voters the implications for financial prudence and stability.
This discussion has been closed.

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