On the timing of the Rochester by-election - maybe it will be left to fester a while before being called?
I'm not actually sure, but I believe the position is that anyone in the Commons can move the writ (the Government can vote it down, but it'd be horribly embarrassing), so assuming Carswell is elected on Thursday, he could move the writ next week after he's sworn in, if he wants to frustrate a Tory plan to play it long.
Interesting and good point - and he wouldn't even really be breaking convention, which as I understand it is the party of the previous MP (which you could argue was UKIP as he defected before resigning his seat)
UKIP will surely move the writ for an early election.
They're ahead in the polls, they would have impetus from Clacton, it's more good publicity. No brainer really.
Immediately after reckless defected, I predicted the real odds were something like;
Ukip 1/3 Con 3/1 Lab 8/1
Looks like I was pretty much spot on.
Thank you William hill for going 6/5 on UKIP
After seeing this poll, I'd be more:
UKIP 1/2 Con 3/2 Lab 20/1
By-elections usually end up as two horse races. Which way will the Labour vote split?
(As an aside, the empirical evidence from 538 is that - outside of Primaries - there is no such thing as 'momentum'. If the last poll result has shown you gaining share, the chance of the next showing the same is less than 50/50. I.e. mean reversion seems to top "the big mo")
On the timing of the Rochester by-election - maybe it will be left to fester a while before being called?
I'm not actually sure, but I believe the position is that anyone in the Commons can move the writ (the Government can vote it down, but it'd be horribly embarrassing), so assuming Carswell is elected on Thursday, he could move the writ next week after he's sworn in, if he wants to frustrate a Tory plan to play it long.
Interesting and good point - and he wouldn't even really be breaking convention, which as I understand it is the party of the previous MP (which you could argue was UKIP as he defected before resigning his seat)
UKIP will surely move the writ for an early election.
They're ahead in the polls, they would have impetus from Clacton, it's more good publicity. No brainer really.
On the timing of the Rochester by-election - maybe it will be left to fester a while before being called?
I'm not actually sure, but I believe the position is that anyone in the Commons can move the writ (the Government can vote it down, but it'd be horribly embarrassing), so assuming Carswell is elected on Thursday, he could move the writ next week after he's sworn in, if he wants to frustrate a Tory plan to play it long.
Interesting and good point - and he wouldn't even really be breaking convention, which as I understand it is the party of the previous MP (which you could argue was UKIP as he defected before resigning his seat)
UKIP will surely move the writ for an early election.
They're ahead in the polls, they would have impetus from Clacton, it's more good publicity. No brainer really.
Assuming that the result is as shown in the poll, then that would make the GE a real nail-biter - Reckless would drop to 35.5%, and the Tories (assuming they got 75% of the 12% of Reckless switchers) would jump to 35.2%.
The latest poll lead for the Conservatives after their conference seems to show how gullible people are about the unrealistic promises to cut taxes, spend more on the NHS and still eliminate the unsustainable deficit.
Even UKIP are making tax cut promises which appear to increase the deficit from £100billion per year to £200 billion per year.
We need the Office of Budget Responsibility to audit all the parties manifestos and tell the voters the implications for financial prudence and stability.
No UKIPs proposals include restricting child benefit, slashing international aid, withdrawing from the EU, scrapping Green subsidies etc all of which provide savings not considered by other parties. So your gross exaggerations are pure fantasy!
On the timing of the Rochester by-election - maybe it will be left to fester a while before being called?
I'm not actually sure, but I believe the position is that anyone in the Commons can move the writ (the Government can vote it down, but it'd be horribly embarrassing), so assuming Carswell is elected on Thursday, he could move the writ next week after he's sworn in, if he wants to frustrate a Tory plan to play it long.
Interesting and good point - and he wouldn't even really be breaking convention, which as I understand it is the party of the previous MP (which you could argue was UKIP as he defected before resigning his seat)
UKIP will surely move the writ for an early election.
They're ahead in the polls, they would have impetus from Clacton, it's more good publicity. No brainer really.
On the timing of the Rochester by-election - maybe it will be left to fester a while before being called?
I'm not actually sure, but I believe the position is that anyone in the Commons can move the writ (the Government can vote it down, but it'd be horribly embarrassing), so assuming Carswell is elected on Thursday, he could move the writ next week after he's sworn in, if he wants to frustrate a Tory plan to play it long.
Interesting and good point - and he wouldn't even really be breaking convention, which as I understand it is the party of the previous MP (which you could argue was UKIP as he defected before resigning his seat)
UKIP will surely move the writ for an early election.
They're ahead in the polls, they would have impetus from Clacton, it's more good publicity. No brainer really.
Not sure that UKIP can move any writ...
Could Carswell move the writ on Friday?
If he is appointed as Chief Whip... I guess he could
The other thing to consider is whether there will be a knock on boost for UKIP in Rochester should Carswell win and win well in Clacton and if there is another defection in the pipeline for after a Carswell victory would it be timed to take place in the run up to the Rochester by election?
Assuming that the result is as shown in the poll, then that would make the GE a real nail-biter - Reckless would drop to 35.5%, and the Tories (assuming they got 75% of the 12% of Reckless switchers) would jump to 35.2%.
Perhaps but who's to say that the protest vote won't protest at the general election too? The Libdems always seemed to be able to get them out on General election day.
On the timing of the Rochester by-election - maybe it will be left to fester a while before being called?
I'm not actually sure, but I believe the position is that anyone in the Commons can move the writ (the Government can vote it down, but it'd be horribly embarrassing), so assuming Carswell is elected on Thursday, he could move the writ next week after he's sworn in, if he wants to frustrate a Tory plan to play it long.
Interesting and good point - and he wouldn't even really be breaking convention, which as I understand it is the party of the previous MP (which you could argue was UKIP as he defected before resigning his seat)
UKIP will surely move the writ for an early election.
They're ahead in the polls, they would have impetus from Clacton, it's more good publicity. No brainer really.
Not sure that UKIP can move any writ...
Could Carswell move the writ on Friday?
If he is appointed as Chief Whip... I guess he could
Assuming that the result is as shown in the poll, then that would make the GE a real nail-biter - Reckless would drop to 35.5%, and the Tories (assuming they got 75% of the 12% of Reckless switchers) would jump to 35.2%.
Pish. By the time the GE rolls round everyone will want to vote UKIP!
On the timing of the Rochester by-election - maybe it will be left to fester a while before being called?
I'm not actually sure, but I believe the position is that anyone in the Commons can move the writ (the Government can vote it down, but it'd be horribly embarrassing), so assuming Carswell is elected on Thursday, he could move the writ next week after he's sworn in, if he wants to frustrate a Tory plan to play it long.
Interesting and good point - and he wouldn't even really be breaking convention, which as I understand it is the party of the previous MP (which you could argue was UKIP as he defected before resigning his seat)
UKIP will surely move the writ for an early election.
They're ahead in the polls, they would have impetus from Clacton, it's more good publicity. No brainer really.
Not sure that UKIP can move any writ...
Could Carswell move the writ on Friday?
If he is appointed as Chief Whip... I guess he could
Assuming that the result is as shown in the poll, then that would make the GE a real nail-biter - Reckless would drop to 35.5%, and the Tories (assuming they got 75% of the 12% of Reckless switchers) would jump to 35.2%.
Incumbency bonus, RCS?
Somehow I suspect whoever wins in November (or whenever) will win in May.
On the timing of the Rochester by-election - maybe it will be left to fester a while before being called?
I'm not actually sure, but I believe the position is that anyone in the Commons can move the writ (the Government can vote it down, but it'd be horribly embarrassing), so assuming Carswell is elected on Thursday, he could move the writ next week after he's sworn in, if he wants to frustrate a Tory plan to play it long.
Interesting and good point - and he wouldn't even really be breaking convention, which as I understand it is the party of the previous MP (which you could argue was UKIP as he defected before resigning his seat)
UKIP will surely move the writ for an early election.
They're ahead in the polls, they would have impetus from Clacton, it's more good publicity. No brainer really.
Not sure that UKIP can move any writ...
Could Carswell move the writ on Friday?
If he is appointed as Chief Whip... I guess he could
On the timing of the Rochester by-election - maybe it will be left to fester a while before being called?
I'm not actually sure, but I believe the position is that anyone in the Commons can move the writ (the Government can vote it down, but it'd be horribly embarrassing), so assuming Carswell is elected on Thursday, he could move the writ next week after he's sworn in, if he wants to frustrate a Tory plan to play it long.
Interesting and good point - and he wouldn't even really be breaking convention, which as I understand it is the party of the previous MP (which you could argue was UKIP as he defected before resigning his seat)
UKIP will surely move the writ for an early election.
They're ahead in the polls, they would have impetus from Clacton, it's more good publicity. No brainer really.
Not sure that UKIP can move any writ...
Mr Carswell needs to get elected first. :-)
I wouldn't be surprised to see Carswell moving the writ as his first act in Parliament after being elected under his new colours.
The other thing to consider is whether there will be a knock on boost for UKIP in Rochester should Carswell win and win well in Clacton and if there is another defection in the pipeline for after a Carswell victory would it be timed to take place in the run up to the Rochester by election?
Traitors all!
You can always spot a Tory. There the ones that will abuse people for disagreeing with them. They really are a shameful disgrace! An embarrassment to this country!
Interesting and good point - and he wouldn't even really be breaking convention, which as I understand it is the party of the previous MP (which you could argue was UKIP as he defected before resigning his seat)
That's why I'm not sure. The convention is to wait for the chief whip of the party of the former MP, but what party is that? In any case, an insurgent MP is not normally going to care about conventions - except that it's Carswell, who is a stickler for most things. But I'd have thought that the 650 MPs would include one maverick who will move the writ - and it'd be impossible to vote down ("No, we don't want Rochester to have an MP").
A lot of Tories on Twitter seem genuinely surprised by the Rochester opinion poll.
Which way? They thought that they would be leading, or are surprised by how close it is?
There was a lot of Tory chicken-counting, seemingly based on delegates at the conference telling each other how fired up they were and how unpopular they thought Reckless was.
So crossover confirmed it would seem and Tories now back to their 2010 voteshare, squeeze the UKIP total a little and Cameron will get more than he got last time
So crossover confirmed it would seem and Tories now back to their 2010 voteshare, squeeze the UKIP total a little and Cameron will get more than he got last time
Twitter Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 2h 2 hours ago Labour frontbencher tells Sunday Times Miliband's team are "in the ideas business" while "the rest of us are in the winning votes business".
I think their politics trader is still in the sinbin after the 2011 scottish election, when PB'ers milked victor dry. I can understand their caution...
O/T Just been to see Gone Girl, an intriguing film which builds tension and with some astonishing twists and turns towards the end, well worth watching!
All those who took Tissue Price's advice to back Washington Nationals at 20/1 to win the World Series should switch to their game against San Francisco now.
Assuming that the result is as shown in the poll, then that would make the GE a real nail-biter - Reckless would drop to 35.5%, and the Tories (assuming they got 75% of the 12% of Reckless switchers) would jump to 35.2%.
Perhaps but who's to say that the protest vote won't protest at the general election too? The Libdems always seemed to be able to get them out on General election day.
I think they had about a 60% hold rate...
It all depends on the MP.
Carswell: an excellent MP. Even if UKIP were to go backwards substantially in the polls, I'd still expect him to hold on.
Reckless: an average MP. I see no reason why he should hold on if UKIP fall back in the polls.
Yes it was on the Bbc after football results news. It's in Glasgow. If Kay Burley can't cope I can't see how you could expect the entirety of the LDs to cope.
Assuming that the result is as shown in the poll, then that would make the GE a real nail-biter - Reckless would drop to 35.5%, and the Tories (assuming they got 75% of the 12% of Reckless switchers) would jump to 35.2%.
Incumbency bonus, RCS?
Somehow I suspect whoever wins in November (or whenever) will win in May.
If the Conservatives win, then they'll hold in May.
If UKIP win by 10% or more, they'll hold on in May.
If UKIP win by a few percent thanks to Labourites tactically voting to damage Cameron, then I'd expect it to swing Blue again in May,
Assuming that the result is as shown in the poll, then that would make the GE a real nail-biter - Reckless would drop to 35.5%, and the Tories (assuming they got 75% of the 12% of Reckless switchers) would jump to 35.2%.
Incumbency bonus, RCS?
Somehow I suspect whoever wins in November (or whenever) will win in May.
If the Conservatives win, then they'll hold in May.
If UKIP win by 10% or more, they'll hold on in May.
If UKIP win by a few percent thanks to Labourites tactically voting to damage Cameron, then I'd expect it to swing Blue again in May,
Why wouldn't they vote tactically again in May, Robert?
Yes it was on the Bbc after football results news. It's in Glasgow. If Kay Burley can't cope I can't see how you could expect the entirety of the LDs to cope.
Did the hall fill up? There were some unflattering photos on the interwebs earlier.
This is a very poor poll for Mark Reckless and UKIP in a by-election where the Tory candidate has not yet been selected. The Conservative party are fired up and angry at this defection, and they are going to now throw the kitchen sink at this by-election on the back of a very successful Conference. Most pundits here have nailed on a comfortable Carsewell win almost from the moment he defected, but its going to be far more interesting to see if he will manage to hang onto any short term by-election win at the next GE after that. I am not so sure that Carsewell will win the seat a second time next May.
I think that Reckless and UKIP have made the exact same tactical mistake that Gordon Brown and the Labour party did back in the Autumn of 2007 before the Conference season. Trying to derail and scupper a Conservative Party Conference back in 2007 didn't see the party imploding, quite the opposite, it brought unity and fired the party up. Cameron and Osborne also went onto deliver election defining speeches. And that is exactly what has happened this time around after UKIP's defection PR stunt, only both Cameron and Osborne upped their games from 2007 and delivered probable their best speeches yet to Conference as Leader and Chancellor.
And while Salmond decides to wipe out the debts of poll tax dodgers on Thursday, we await the tax raising plans that John Swinney has in store for the many civic minded Scots who not only paid their taxes, but who also bothered to turn out and vote for the last twenty five years too. Lets see who gets the solidarity and fairness here?! Twitter sunday herald @newsundayherald 7m7 minutes ago Finance Secretary @JohnSwinney to announce first Scottish taxes in budget based on 'fairness and solidarity' ... in tomorrow's paper
Yes it was on the Bbc after football results news. It's in Glasgow. If Kay Burley can't cope I can't see how you could expect the entirety of the LDs to cope.
Did the hall fill up? There were some unflattering photos on the interwebs earlier.
They didn't show the hall - presumably the Bbc moral code does not allow them to give the LDs a kicking when their down.
This is a very poor poll for Mark Reckless and UKIP in a by-election where the Tory candidate has not yet been selected. The Conservative party are fired up and angry at this defection, and they are going to now throw the kitchen sink at this by-election on the back of a very successful Conference. Most pundits here have nailed on a comfortable Carsewell win almost from the moment he defected, but its going to be far more interesting to see if he will manage to hang onto any short term by-election win at the next GE after that. I am not so sure that Carsewell will win the seat a second time next May.
I think that Reckless and UKIP have made the exact same tactical mistake that Gordon Brown and the Labour party did back in the Autumn of 2007 before the Conference season. Trying to derail and scupper a Conservative Party Conference back in 2007 didn't see the party imploding, quite the opposite, it brought unity and fired the party up. Cameron and Osborne also went onto deliver election defining speeches. And that is exactly what has happened this time around after UKIP's defection PR stunt, only both Cameron and Osborne upped their games from 2007 and delivered probable their best speeches yet to Conference as Leader and Chancellor.
Wasn't the 2007 tory conference the £1m inheritance tax policy? It was misjugements like that that cost the tories a majority.
Edit: Oh yes, Osborne was proposing to abolish stamp duty for first time buyers too, just before the market crashed - which would have encouraged a load of young people in immediate negative equity.
Assuming that the result is as shown in the poll, then that would make the GE a real nail-biter - Reckless would drop to 35.5%, and the Tories (assuming they got 75% of the 12% of Reckless switchers) would jump to 35.2%.
Incumbency bonus, RCS?
Somehow I suspect whoever wins in November (or whenever) will win in May.
If the Conservatives win, then they'll hold in May.
If UKIP win by 10% or more, they'll hold on in May.
If UKIP win by a few percent thanks to Labourites tactically voting to damage Cameron, then I'd expect it to swing Blue again in May,
Why wouldn't they vote tactically again in May, Robert?
If you look at the history of the Alliance, and the LibDems, you see a c. 60% byelection retention rate, largely as tactical voters returned home at the general. I see no reason why it should be different for UKIP. If Mark Reckless was an excellent constituency MP I'd rate their chances in May higher. But he's not.
LDs "A significant proportion (around 20%) of prior Liberal Democrat voters are now undecided. These undecided Liberal Democrats are the crucial group for the party – will they abstain from voting altogether in 2015 or will they return to the Liberal Democrats or vote for another party?
The changes in 2015 vote intention among those people who voted Liberal Democrat in 2010 between the first (February-March) and second (May-June) BESIP survey show small increases for the Conservatives, UKIP and the Green Party.
The worry for the Liberal Democrats is that so far the decline in undecided prior Liberal Democrat voters appears to be benefiting other parties."
The LibDems could end up with 8% and fewer than 10 seats, or 15% and perhaps 40.
I find myself genuinely torn: on the one hand, they continue to register 6-10% in the polls and all the evidence is that their vote is soft; on the other, they've made a ton of gains in local by-elections recently, their local vote share has held up well where they have MPs (even in Portsmouth South), their MPs have by far the best 'net favourability' ratings from constituents, and the Ashcroft marginals poll shows them only having made a small net loss to the Conservative Party.
Basically, I'm too chicken to play the LibDem seat market - but I'm prepared to bet on them losing a monumental number of deposits.
The chances of the Lib Dems ending up with fewer than 10 seats are virtually nil. They will win 35-40 - even on a bad night they are extremely unlikely to drop below 30.
Assuming that the result is as shown in the poll, then that would make the GE a real nail-biter - Reckless would drop to 35.5%, and the Tories (assuming they got 75% of the 12% of Reckless switchers) would jump to 35.2%.
Incumbency bonus, RCS?
Somehow I suspect whoever wins in November (or whenever) will win in May.
If the Conservatives win, then they'll hold in May.
If UKIP win by 10% or more, they'll hold on in May.
If UKIP win by a few percent thanks to Labourites tactically voting to damage Cameron, then I'd expect it to swing Blue again in May,
Why wouldn't they vote tactically again in May, Robert?
If you look at the history of the Alliance, and the LibDems, you see a c. 60% byelection retention rate, largely as tactical voters returned home at the general. I see no reason why it should be different for UKIP. If Mark Reckless was an excellent constituency MP I'd rate their chances in May higher. But he's not.
Hmmm....you're assuming UKIP represents a similar phenomenon to the Alliance and LD surges then, Robert.
Not sure that's an entirely reliable assumption. I'll think about it.
LDs "A significant proportion (around 20%) of prior Liberal Democrat voters are now undecided. These undecided Liberal Democrats are the crucial group for the party – will they abstain from voting altogether in 2015 or will they return to the Liberal Democrats or vote for another party?
The changes in 2015 vote intention among those people who voted Liberal Democrat in 2010 between the first (February-March) and second (May-June) BESIP survey show small increases for the Conservatives, UKIP and the Green Party.
The worry for the Liberal Democrats is that so far the decline in undecided prior Liberal Democrat voters appears to be benefiting other parties."
The LibDems could end up with 8% and fewer than 10 seats, or 15% and perhaps 40.
I find myself genuinely torn: on the one hand, they continue to register 6-10% in the polls and all the evidence is that their vote is soft; on the other, they've made a ton of gains in local by-elections recently, their local vote share has held up well where they have MPs (even in Portsmouth South), their MPs have by far the best 'net favourability' ratings from constituents, and the Ashcroft marginals poll shows them only having made a small net loss to the Conservative Party.
Basically, I'm too chicken to play the LibDem seat market - but I'm prepared to bet on them losing a monumental number of deposits.
The chances of the Lib Dems ending up with fewer than 10 seats are virtually nil. They will win 35-40 - even on a bad night they are extremely unlikely to drop below 30.
LDs "A significant proportion (around 20%) of prior Liberal Democrat voters are now undecided. These undecided Liberal Democrats are the crucial group for the party – will they abstain from voting altogether in 2015 or will they return to the Liberal Democrats or vote for another party?
The changes in 2015 vote intention among those people who voted Liberal Democrat in 2010 between the first (February-March) and second (May-June) BESIP survey show small increases for the Conservatives, UKIP and the Green Party.
The worry for the Liberal Democrats is that so far the decline in undecided prior Liberal Democrat voters appears to be benefiting other parties."
The LibDems could end up with 8% and fewer than 10 seats, or 15% and perhaps 40.
I find myself genuinely torn: on the one hand, they continue to register 6-10% in the polls and all the evidence is that their vote is soft; on the other, they've made a ton of gains in local by-elections recently, their local vote share has held up well where they have MPs (even in Portsmouth South), their MPs have by far the best 'net favourability' ratings from constituents, and the Ashcroft marginals poll shows them only having made a small net loss to the Conservative Party.
Basically, I'm too chicken to play the LibDem seat market - but I'm prepared to bet on them losing a monumental number of deposits.
The chances of the Lib Dems ending up with fewer than 10 seats are virtually nil. They will win 35-40 - even on a bad night they are extremely unlikely to drop below 30.
Another Dave Gone Girl is a Mystery Thriller starring Ben Affleck and Rosamund Pike about a woman who goes missing with her husband suspected of her murder, very cleverly builds the tension and some unexpected twists at the end
LDs "A significant proportion (around 20%) of prior Liberal Democrat voters are now undecided. These undecided Liberal Democrats are the crucial group for the party – will they abstain from voting altogether in 2015 or will they return to the Liberal Democrats or vote for another party?
The changes in 2015 vote intention among those people who voted Liberal Democrat in 2010 between the first (February-March) and second (May-June) BESIP survey show small increases for the Conservatives, UKIP and the Green Party.
The worry for the Liberal Democrats is that so far the decline in undecided prior Liberal Democrat voters appears to be benefiting other parties."
The LibDems could end up with 8% and fewer than 10 seats, or 15% and perhaps 40.
I find myself genuinely torn: on the one hand, they continue to register 6-10% in the polls and all the evidence is that their vote is soft; on the other, they've made a ton of gains in local by-elections recently, their local vote share has held up well where they have MPs (even in Portsmouth South), their MPs have by far the best 'net favourability' ratings from constituents, and the Ashcroft marginals poll shows them only having made a small net loss to the Conservative Party.
Basically, I'm too chicken to play the LibDem seat market - but I'm prepared to bet on them losing a monumental number of deposits.
The chances of the Lib Dems ending up with fewer than 10 seats are virtually nil. They will win 35-40 - even on a bad night they are extremely unlikely to drop below 30.
They've lost 2/3 of their 2010 support.
Maybe even three quarters...
That being said... I'm genuinely uncomfortable betting on anything other than deposit losses.
I think Mr Carswell has a pretty good chance of hanging on in May again because of his personal vote. It's like that Indy MP in BGwent ages ago who kept his seat after leaving Labour.
I'd be amazed if Mr Reckless - assuming he does scrape in - gets re-elected in May.
Where I think Kippers miscalculated over the Tory Conf was that they didn't have a knock out blow. If you're going to take on a Party who are all together/experiencing a tribal circling of the wagons - you have to KO their confidence totally. The Kippers simply didn't have anywhere enough ammo.
Carswell should've either done a Dick Dastardly on conf eve [but I don't think he'd stoop so low] or the Kippers needed a bunch of defectors in one go a la the Gang Of Four.
They just didn't have the critical mass and have just pissed the Tories off in one huge go - when they were all together.
This is a very poor poll for Mark Reckless and UKIP in a by-election where the Tory candidate has not yet been selected. The Conservative party are fired up and angry at this defection, and they are going to now throw the kitchen sink at this by-election on the back of a very successful Conference. Most pundits here have nailed on a comfortable Carsewell win almost from the moment he defected, but its going to be far more interesting to see if he will manage to hang onto any short term by-election win at the next GE after that. I am not so sure that Carsewell will win the seat a second time next May.
I think that Reckless and UKIP have made the exact same tactical mistake that Gordon Brown and the Labour party did back in the Autumn of 2007 before the Conference season. Trying to derail and scupper a Conservative Party Conference back in 2007 didn't see the party imploding, quite the opposite, it brought unity and fired the party up. Cameron and Osborne also went onto deliver election defining speeches. And that is exactly what has happened this time around after UKIP's defection PR stunt, only both Cameron and Osborne upped their games from 2007 and delivered probable their best speeches yet to Conference as Leader and Chancellor.
That would also be the 2007 Autumn GE that was heavily briefed and Gordon Brown then bottled, supposedly because the polls showed he was going to win! So yes, George Osborne and David Cameron played a blinder in their 2007 GE speeches, that is also the one where Cameron chose to deliver his speech without notes, and managed to remember everything..... Ed Miliband just tried to do the same at the recent Labour Conference when he didn't have to, and he only managed to forget the most important issue, the economy! So not so clever!
This is a very poor poll for Mark Reckless and UKIP in a by-election where the Tory candidate has not yet been selected. The Conservative party are fired up and angry at this defection, and they are going to now throw the kitchen sink at this by-election on the back of a very successful Conference. Most pundits here have nailed on a comfortable Carsewell win almost from the moment he defected, but its going to be far more interesting to see if he will manage to hang onto any short term by-election win at the next GE after that. I am not so sure that Carsewell will win the seat a second time next May.
I think that Reckless and UKIP have made the exact same tactical mistake that Gordon Brown and the Labour party did back in the Autumn of 2007 before the Conference season. Trying to derail and scupper a Conservative Party Conference back in 2007 didn't see the party imploding, quite the opposite, it brought unity and fired the party up. Cameron and Osborne also went onto deliver election defining speeches. And that is exactly what has happened this time around after UKIP's defection PR stunt, only both Cameron and Osborne upped their games from 2007 and delivered probable their best speeches yet to Conference as Leader and Chancellor.
Wasn't the 2007 tory conference the £1m inheritance tax policy? It was misjugements like that that cost the tories a majority.
Edit: Oh yes, Osborne was proposing to abolish stamp duty for first time buyers too, just before the market crashed - which would have encouraged a load of young people in immediate negative equity.
Another Dave Gone Girl is a Mystery Thriller starring Ben Affleck and Rosamund Pike about a woman who goes missing with her husband suspected of her murder, very cleverly builds the tension and some unexpected twists at the end
Another Dave Gone Girl is a Mystery Thriller starring Ben Affleck and Rosamund Pike about a woman who goes missing with her husband suspected of her murder, very cleverly builds the tension and some unexpected twists at the end
LDs "A significant proportion (around 20%) of prior Liberal Democrat voters are now undecided. These undecided Liberal Democrats are the crucial group for the party – will they abstain from voting altogether in 2015 or will they return to the Liberal Democrats or vote for another party?
The changes in 2015 vote intention among those people who voted Liberal Democrat in 2010 between the first (February-March) and second (May-June) BESIP survey show small increases for the Conservatives, UKIP and the Green Party.
The worry for the Liberal Democrats is that so far the decline in undecided prior Liberal Democrat voters appears to be benefiting other parties."
The LibDems could end up with 8% and fewer than 10 seats, or 15% and perhaps 40.
I find myself genuinely torn: on the one hand, they continue to register 6-10% in the polls and all the evidence is that their vote is soft; on the other, they've made a ton of gains in local by-elections recently, their local vote share has held up well where they have MPs (even in Portsmouth South), their MPs have by far the best 'net favourability' ratings from constituents, and the Ashcroft marginals poll shows them only having made a small net loss to the Conservative Party.
Basically, I'm too chicken to play the LibDem seat market - but I'm prepared to bet on them losing a monumental number of deposits.
The chances of the Lib Dems ending up with fewer than 10 seats are virtually nil. They will win 35-40 - even on a bad night they are extremely unlikely to drop below 30.
Go on then, give me some odds and let me bet.
Ladbrokes will give you 14/1 on Lib Dems getting 10 seats or less. I don't bet, but I do understand odds - and that is not good value. You can get 7/4 on 31-40 LD seats - that is good value. 41-50 should also be a little tempting at 7/1, since, although not a highly likely outcome, it's got to be better than a 12.5% chance.
LDs "A significant proportion (around 20%) of prior Liberal Democrat voters are now undecided. These undecided Liberal Democrats are the crucial group for the party – will they abstain from voting altogether in 2015 or will they return to the Liberal Democrats or vote for another party?
The changes in 2015 vote intention among those people who voted Liberal Democrat in 2010 between the first (February-March) and second (May-June) BESIP survey show small increases for the Conservatives, UKIP and the Green Party.
The worry for the Liberal Democrats is that so far the decline in undecided prior Liberal Democrat voters appears to be benefiting other parties."
The LibDems could end up with 8% and fewer than 10 seats, or 15% and perhaps 40.
I find myself genuinely torn: on the one hand, they continue to register 6-10% in the polls and all the evidence is that their vote is soft; on the other, they've made a ton of gains in local by-elections recently, their local vote share has held up well where they have MPs (even in Portsmouth South), their MPs have by far the best 'net favourability' ratings from constituents, and the Ashcroft marginals poll shows them only having made a small net loss to the Conservative Party.
Basically, I'm too chicken to play the LibDem seat market - but I'm prepared to bet on them losing a monumental number of deposits.
The chances of the Lib Dems ending up with fewer than 10 seats are virtually nil. They will win 35-40 - even on a bad night they are extremely unlikely to drop below 30.
I've got access to US TV shows streaming. I liked The Blacklist, but I'd stick it in my Good Filler pile. I'll watch it for S2 but not dying to see each one. I love James Spader though.
I'm rewatching S9 of Supernatural. Have done E1-5 this evening and have the other 18 to go. One of the poorest seasons IMO, I hated Human Castiel and all the plots that went nowhere/Angel Wars that fizzled out.
Just caught up with The Good Wife S6 E1-2 - just brilliant as ever. Scandal E1-2 are just as silly entertainment. Revenge E1-2 is turning on its head. E1-2 Person of Interest is keeping me glued.
I've Castle to do tomorrow, plus a bunch of others. Then I have to watch them all again to make sure I haven't missed anything. I tend to see every episode 2/3 before moving on/deleting them. If I like them - they stay until I run out of space.
I'm thinking of investing in a 3Tr drive as I prefer to keep my favourites handy and off the boxset heap.
This is a very poor poll for Mark Reckless and UKIP in a by-election where the Tory candidate has not yet been selected. The Conservative party are fired up and angry at this defection, and they are going to now throw the kitchen sink at this by-election on the back of a very successful Conference. Most pundits here have nailed on a comfortable Carsewell win almost from the moment he defected, but its going to be far more interesting to see if he will manage to hang onto any short term by-election win at the next GE after that. I am not so sure that Carsewell will win the seat a second time next May.
I think that Reckless and UKIP have made the exact same tactical mistake that Gordon Brown and the Labour party did back in the Autumn of 2007 before the Conference season. Trying to derail and scupper a Conservative Party Conference back in 2007 didn't see the party imploding, quite the opposite, it brought unity and fired the party up. Cameron and Osborne also went onto deliver election defining speeches. And that is exactly what has happened this time around after UKIP's defection PR stunt, only both Cameron and Osborne upped their games from 2007 and delivered probable their best speeches yet to Conference as Leader and Chancellor.
Yes being 9 points ahead in a by election poll is such a disaster for UKIP. I imagine that Nigel Farage would want similar disasters in every seat they fight! After all its pretty commonplace to get a 29% swing from the government in a by election...
when you attend or watch on TV a football game here, about every ten yards or so around the edge of the field you will see someone facing the crowd, wearing a daglo vest which says something like 'Event Security" on the back. Their job is to keep the crowd off the field and keep an eye on them.
#11 Ole Miss Rebels took down the mighty #1 Alabama Crimson Tide today. It's the first time that Ole Miss has ever beaten the number 1 ranked team. They are also now 5-0, for the first time since 1962.
The inevitable happened and the crowd - pretty much all 75000 of them - rushed the field. You could clearly see the 'event security' folks helping people over the railing and onto the field.
It was a good day for Mississippi - that happened in Oxford, while over in Starkville, MS State took down Texas A&M. ESPN's Collge Game Day was in Oxford, and SEC Nation was in Starkville.
TBH, I am not a regular political punter outside the big elections. But I am currently just pig sick that I didn't follow my gut instinct to bet on the Tories winning the Reckless seat the minute Cameron finished delivering his Speech to Conference when the odds were far better. The last time I had such a strong vibe was when I heard how well Ed Miliband was going down a the TUC Conference before the last GE, I got a nice bet on him to be next Labour Leader at 20/1! But you cling tight to the same blanket Gordon Brown did back in 2007, he bottled that early GE because the polls told him he was going win.
This is a very poor poll for Mark Reckless and UKIP in a by-election where the Tory candidate has not yet been selected. The Conservative party are fired up and angry at this defection, and they are going to now throw the kitchen sink at this by-election on the back of a very successful Conference. Most pundits here have nailed on a comfortable Carsewell win almost from the moment he defected, but its going to be far more interesting to see if he will manage to hang onto any short term by-election win at the next GE after that. I am not so sure that Carsewell will win the seat a second time next May.
I think that Reckless and UKIP have made the exact same tactical mistake that Gordon Brown and the Labour party did back in the Autumn of 2007 before the Conference season. Trying to derail and scupper a Conservative Party Conference back in 2007 didn't see the party imploding, quite the opposite, it brought unity and fired the party up. Cameron and Osborne also went onto deliver election defining speeches. And that is exactly what has happened this time around after UKIP's defection PR stunt, only both Cameron and Osborne upped their games from 2007 and delivered probable their best speeches yet to Conference as Leader and Chancellor.
Yes being 9 points ahead in a by election poll is such a disaster for UKIP. I imagine that Nigel Farage would want similar disasters in every seat they fight! After all its pretty commonplace to get a 29% swing from the government in a by election...
I've got access to US TV shows streaming. I liked The Blacklist, but I'd stick it in my Good Filler pile. I'll watch it for S2 but not dying to see each one. I love James Spader though.
I'm rewatching S9 of Supernatural. Have done E1-5 this evening and have the other 18 to go. One of the poorest seasons IMO, I hated Human Castiel and all the plots that went nowhere/Angel Wars that fizzled out.
Just caught up with The Good Wife S6 E1-2 - just brilliant as ever. Scandal E1-2 are just as silly entertainment. Revenge E1-2 is turning on its head. E1-2 Person of Interest is keeping me glued.
I've Castle to do tomorrow, plus a bunch of others. Then I have to watch them all again to make sure I haven't missed anything. I tend to see every episode 2/3 before moving on/deleting them. If I like them - they stay until I run out of space.
I'm thinking of investing in a 3Tr drive as I prefer to keep my favourites handy and off the boxset heap.
I think you're making the assumption that 'fired up' Tories throwing 'everything bar the kitchen sink' at something (or in this case someone) is a prospect that the electors of Rochester will enjoy.
I think Mr Carswell has a pretty good chance of hanging on in May again because of his personal vote. It's like that Indy MP in BGwent ages ago who kept his seat after leaving Labour.
I'd be amazed if Mr Reckless - assuming he does scrape in - gets re-elected in May.
Where I think Kippers miscalculated over the Tory Conf was that they didn't have a knock out blow. If you're going to take on a Party who are all together/experiencing a tribal circling of the wagons - you have to KO their confidence totally. The Kippers simply didn't have anywhere enough ammo.
Carswell should've either done a Dick Dastardly on conf eve [but I don't think he'd stoop so low] or the Kippers needed a bunch of defectors in one go a la the Gang Of Four.
They just didn't have the critical mass and have just pissed the Tories off in one huge go - when they were all together.
This is a very poor poll for Mark Reckless and UKIP in a by-election where the Tory candidate has not yet been selected. The Conservative party are fired up and angry at this defection, and they are going to now throw the kitchen sink at this by-election on the back of a very successful Conference. Most pundits here have nailed on a comfortable Carsewell win almost from the moment he defected, but its going to be far more interesting to see if he will manage to hang onto any short term by-election win at the next GE after that. I am not so sure that Carsewell will win the seat a second time next May.
I think that Reckless and UKIP have made the exact same tactical mistake that Gordon Brown and the Labour party did back in the Autumn of 2007 before the Conference season. Trying to derail and scupper a Conservative Party Conference back in 2007 didn't see the party imploding, quite the opposite, it brought unity and fired the party up. Cameron and Osborne also went onto deliver election defining speeches. And that is exactly what has happened this time around after UKIP's defection PR stunt, only both Cameron and Osborne upped their games from 2007 and delivered probable their best speeches yet to Conference as Leader and Chancellor.
Yougov is astonishing. Tories leading on everything bar the NHS, and even that is not far behind.
Very smart move to shift Gove to Whip and put Morgan in education.
And that Rochester by election is getting more interesting. I think further defectors will wait for the result, and also will be reluctant to do a Carswell as the clock ticks down on byelections.
when you attend or watch on TV a football game here, about every ten yards or so around the edge of the field you will see someone facing the crowd, wearing a daglo vest which says something like 'Event Security" on the back. Their job is to keep the crowd off the field and keep an eye on them.
#11 Ole Miss Rebels took down the mighty #1 Alabama Crimson Tide today. It's the first time that Ole Miss has ever beaten the number 1 ranked team. They are also now 5-0, for the first time since 1962.
The inevitable happened and the crowd - pretty much all 75000 of them - rushed the field. You could clearly see the 'event security' folks helping people over the railing and onto the field.
It was a good day for Mississippi - that happened in Oxford, while over in Starkville, MS State took down Texas A&M. ESPN's Collge Game Day was in Oxford, and SEC Nation was in Starkville.
I love Suits. The wardrobe budget is enormous and so elegant.
Oh Boston Legal is my Go To on a wet Sunday - I know it almost word for word - Candice Bergen and William Shatner are so perfectly matched. James Spader's monologues super.
Supernatural S1 is a bit hard work and shot in Black-O-Vision so it's hard to see what's going on. It really picks up in the second half of S1 - Skin is a brilliantly creepy episode. Then it's superb in S2/3/4/5. S6 is patchy, S7 changes a bit in tone - I love it, but some didn't. S8 is pretty good. Overall - it's score on IMDb of 8.7 is very fair. imdb.com/title/tt0460681/?ref_=nv_sr_2
If you liked The X-Files - a load of the production team/directors were behind Supernatural. There's a hilarious spoof of The X-Files in an episode called Clap Your Hands If You Believe. Have a looksee here at the opening titles > https://youtube.com/watch?v=AN-Jj2SDcls
I've got access to US TV shows streaming. I liked The Blacklist, but I'd stick it in my Good Filler pile. I'll watch it for S2 but not dying to see each one. I love James Spader though.
I'm rewatching S9 of Supernatural. Have done E1-5 this evening and have the other 18 to go. One of the poorest seasons IMO, I hated Human Castiel and all the plots that went nowhere/Angel Wars that fizzled out.
Just caught up with The Good Wife S6 E1-2 - just brilliant as ever. Scandal E1-2 are just as silly entertainment. Revenge E1-2 is turning on its head. E1-2 Person of Interest is keeping me glued.
I've Castle to do tomorrow, plus a bunch of others. Then I have to watch them all again to make sure I haven't missed anything. I tend to see every episode 2/3 before moving on/deleting them. If I like them - they stay until I run out of space.
I'm thinking of investing in a 3Tr drive as I prefer to keep my favourites handy and off the boxset heap.
My youngest son and his friends had a brilliant weekend in London last week when they attended the NFL game at Wembley. They all got into American football about two years ago, so I now have to add that to the normal footie, F1, golf and rugby coverage every weekend! Tonight at teatime, fitaloon arrived home and lifted the TV remote while I was watching a sports free programme to be be greeted with the words 'don't even think about it'!! He missed the first half of the Premier League game he wanted to watch, it could have been worse, if I had wanted to watch Strickly Come Dancing he would have missed the second half and the all important goal!
when you attend or watch on TV a football game here, about every ten yards or so around the edge of the field you will see someone facing the crowd, wearing a daglo vest which says something like 'Event Security" on the back. Their job is to keep the crowd off the field and keep an eye on them.
#11 Ole Miss Rebels took down the mighty #1 Alabama Crimson Tide today. It's the first time that Ole Miss has ever beaten the number 1 ranked team. They are also now 5-0, for the first time since 1962.
The inevitable happened and the crowd - pretty much all 75000 of them - rushed the field. You could clearly see the 'event security' folks helping people over the railing and onto the field.
It was a good day for Mississippi - that happened in Oxford, while over in Starkville, MS State took down Texas A&M. ESPN's Collge Game Day was in Oxford, and SEC Nation was in Starkville.
I love Suits. The wardrobe budget is enormous and so elegant.
Oh Boston Legal is my Go To on a wet Sunday - I know it almost word for word - Candice Bergen and William Shatner are so perfectly matched. James Spader's monologues super.
Supernatural S1 is a bit hard work and shot in Black-O-Vision so it's hard to see what's going on. It really picks up in the second half of S1 - Skin is a brilliantly creepy episode. Then it's superb in S2/3/4/5. S6 is patchy, S7 changes a bit in tone - I love it, but some didn't. S8 is pretty good. Overall - it's score on IMDb of 8.7 is very fair. imdb.com/title/tt0460681/?ref_=nv_sr_2
If you liked The X-Files - a load of the production team/directors were behind Supernatural. There's a hilarious spoof of The X-Files in an episode called Clap Your Hands If You Believe. Have a looksee here at the opening titles > https://youtube.com/watch?v=AN-Jj2SDcls
I've got access to US TV shows streaming. I liked The Blacklist, but I'd stick it in my Good Filler pile. I'll watch it for S2 but not dying to see each one. I love James Spader though.
I'm rewatching S9 of Supernatural. Have done E1-5 this evening and have the other 18 to go. One of the poorest seasons IMO, I hated Human Castiel and all the plots that went nowhere/Angel Wars that fizzled out.
Just caught up with The Good Wife S6 E1-2 - just brilliant as ever. Scandal E1-2 are just as silly entertainment. Revenge E1-2 is turning on its head. E1-2 Person of Interest is keeping me glued.
I've Castle to do tomorrow, plus a bunch of others. Then I have to watch them all again to make sure I haven't missed anything. I tend to see every episode 2/3 before moving on/deleting them. If I like them - they stay until I run out of space.
I'm thinking of investing in a 3Tr drive as I prefer to keep my favourites handy and off the boxset heap.
My youngest son and his friends had a brilliant weekend in London last week when they attended the NFL game at Wembley. They all got into American football about two years ago, so I now have to add that to the normal footie, F1, golf and rugby coverage every weekend! Tonight at teatime, fitaloon arrived home and lifted the TV remote while I was watching a sports free programme to be be greeted with the words 'don't even think about it'!! He missed the first half of the Premier League game he wanted to watch, it could have been worse, if I had wanted to watch Strickly Come Dancing he would have missed the second half and the all important goal!
when you attend or watch on TV a football game here, about every ten yards or so around the edge of the field you will see someone facing the crowd, wearing a daglo vest which says something like 'Event Security" on the back. Their job is to keep the crowd off the field and keep an eye on them.
#11 Ole Miss Rebels took down the mighty #1 Alabama Crimson Tide today. It's the first time that Ole Miss has ever beaten the number 1 ranked team. They are also now 5-0, for the first time since 1962.
The inevitable happened and the crowd - pretty much all 75000 of them - rushed the field. You could clearly see the 'event security' folks helping people over the railing and onto the field.
It was a good day for Mississippi - that happened in Oxford, while over in Starkville, MS State took down Texas A&M. ESPN's Collge Game Day was in Oxford, and SEC Nation was in Starkville.
If they want to go back on Sunday November 9th at 6pm your time, they will get a chance to see America's Team - the Dallas Cowboys.
They're playing the Jacksonvile Jaguars, who are angling to become the London NFL franchise.
They sell the place out - admittedly by NFL standards it's a small stadium - and sell $1 million in merchanidise every game. Sarting next season there will be 4 games there every season.
when you attend or watch on TV a football game here, about every ten yards or so around the edge of the field you will see someone facing the crowd, wearing a daglo vest which says something like 'Event Security" on the back. Their job is to keep the crowd off the field and keep an eye on them.
#11 Ole Miss Rebels took down the mighty #1 Alabama Crimson Tide today. It's the first time that Ole Miss has ever beaten the number 1 ranked team. They are also now 5-0, for the first time since 1962.
The inevitable happened and the crowd - pretty much all 75000 of them - rushed the field. You could clearly see the 'event security' folks helping people over the railing and onto the field.
It was a good day for Mississippi - that happened in Oxford, while over in Starkville, MS State took down Texas A&M. ESPN's Collge Game Day was in Oxford, and SEC Nation was in Starkville.
The bands are great -the 'dotting the I' in the script Ohio is usually awarded to a special someone - Jack Nicklaus has done it (he went to Ohio State). So are the cheerleaders. It's all part of the tradition, excitement and emotion of college football. It's amost impossible not to get caught up in it. The Alabama Million Dollar Band is also pretty good.
The tailgating is fantastic. You arrive about 8am for a 3pm game. Everyone sets up their grills in the parking lot. You socialize with those around and swap food and drink - yes alcohol. It is common and usual to do this with the opposing team supporters.
That sounds fantastic, but just spare a thought for me... Sunday's used to be my only Sports free night over a weekend until they got into the NFL. Before I only had to put up with the Super bowl once a year. Now I have to regularly cater for a bunch of 17 year olds who turn up to watch the NFL on our TV, and I have seen locusts leave more crumbs! And Aberdeen born fitaloon is still in shock after treating our youngest lad to the American football team shirt of his choice.
My youngest son and his friends had a brilliant weekend in London last week when they attended the NFL game at Wembley. They all got into American football about two years ago, so I now have to add that to the normal footie, F1, golf and rugby coverage every weekend! Tonight at teatime, fitaloon arrived home and lifted the TV remote while I was watching a sports free programme to be be greeted with the words 'don't even think about it'!! He missed the first half of the Premier League game he wanted to watch, it could have been worse, if I had wanted to watch Strickly Come Dancing he would have missed the second half and the all important goal!
when you attend or watch on TV a football game here, about every ten yards or so around the edge of the field you will see someone facing the crowd, wearing a daglo vest which says something like 'Event Security" on the back. Their job is to keep the crowd off the field and keep an eye on them.
#11 Ole Miss Rebels took down the mighty #1 Alabama Crimson Tide today. It's the first time that Ole Miss has ever beaten the number 1 ranked team. They are also now 5-0, for the first time since 1962.
The inevitable happened and the crowd - pretty much all 75000 of them - rushed the field. You could clearly see the 'event security' folks helping people over the railing and onto the field.
It was a good day for Mississippi - that happened in Oxford, while over in Starkville, MS State took down Texas A&M. ESPN's Collge Game Day was in Oxford, and SEC Nation was in Starkville.
If they want to go back on Sunday November 9th at 6pm your time, they will get a chance to see America's Team - the Dallas Cowboys.
They're playing the Jacksonvile Jaguars, who are angling to become the London NFL franchise.
They sell the place out - admittedly by NFL standards it's a small stadium - and sell $1 million in merchanidise every game. Sarting next season there will be 4 games there every season.
Comments
twitter.com/Survation/status/518518596855939072
They're ahead in the polls, they would have impetus from Clacton, it's more good publicity. No brainer really.
UKIP 1/2
Con 3/2
Lab 20/1
By-elections usually end up as two horse races. Which way will the Labour vote split?
(As an aside, the empirical evidence from 538 is that - outside of Primaries - there is no such thing as 'momentum'. If the last poll result has shown you gaining share, the chance of the next showing the same is less than 50/50. I.e. mean reversion seems to top "the big mo")
Place your bets while the bookies are asleep.
It goes like this:
UKIP are ahead by 9% compared to a 21% Conservative lead at the general election.
Therefore the Tories are probably going to win the by-election.
Sorry??? How do you reach that conclusion?
88% of those voting UKIP in the by-election would also vote for Reckless in next year’s general election 3% said they wouldn’t and 9% DK"
twitter.com/Survation/status/518519394834841600
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIsLWrIMAAA1gy.jpg:large
twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/518525480858054656
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Parliamentary_by-elections
Somehow I suspect whoever wins in November (or whenever) will win in May.
UKIP 1.28
Tory 2.2
Do they not want any bets to be placed?
https://twitter.com/RobbieGibb
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 2h 2 hours ago
Labour frontbencher tells Sunday Times Miliband's team are "in the ideas business" while "the rest of us are in the winning votes business".
All those who took Tissue Price's advice to back Washington Nationals at 20/1 to win the World Series should switch to their game against San Francisco now.
Nationals 1-0 up end of the fourth.
It all depends on the MP.
Carswell: an excellent MP. Even if UKIP were to go backwards substantially in the polls, I'd still expect him to hold on.
Reckless: an average MP. I see no reason why he should hold on if UKIP fall back in the polls.
EXCL: 44% of Lib Dem candidates would prefer a coalition with Labour. 14% would prefer the Conservatives if hung parliament.
As if we needed to be told!
If UKIP win by 10% or more, they'll hold on in May.
If UKIP win by a few percent thanks to Labourites tactically voting to damage Cameron, then I'd expect it to swing Blue again in May,
Robbie Gibb @RobbieGibb · 2h 2 hours ago
EXCL: Just 36% of Lib Dem candidates are happy to use photos of Nick Clegg in their campaign literature #bbcsp/ComRes (2/5)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11140111/There-is-still-the-chemistry-to-forge-a-second-Con-Lib-Coalition.html
I think that Reckless and UKIP have made the exact same tactical mistake that Gordon Brown and the Labour party did back in the Autumn of 2007 before the Conference season. Trying to derail and scupper a Conservative Party Conference back in 2007 didn't see the party imploding, quite the opposite, it brought unity and fired the party up. Cameron and Osborne also went onto deliver election defining speeches. And that is exactly what has happened this time around after UKIP's defection PR stunt, only both Cameron and Osborne upped their games from 2007 and delivered probable their best speeches yet to Conference as Leader and Chancellor.
Twitter
sunday herald @newsundayherald 7m7 minutes ago
Finance Secretary @JohnSwinney to announce first Scottish taxes in budget based on 'fairness and solidarity' ... in tomorrow's paper
Dreadful headlines for poor Mr Reckless. :-(
You can also add my 'Gone Girl' comments earlier to those on the previous thread
Edit: Oh yes, Osborne was proposing to abolish stamp duty for first time buyers too, just before the market crashed - which would have encouraged a load of young people in immediate negative equity.
Clever.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7021357.stm
Not sure that's an entirely reliable assumption. I'll think about it.
On the positive side, as long as the voter is known, we can contact him for every poll.
That being said... I'm genuinely uncomfortable betting on anything other than deposit losses.
I'd be amazed if Mr Reckless - assuming he does scrape in - gets re-elected in May.
Where I think Kippers miscalculated over the Tory Conf was that they didn't have a knock out blow. If you're going to take on a Party who are all together/experiencing a tribal circling of the wagons - you have to KO their confidence totally. The Kippers simply didn't have anywhere enough ammo.
Carswell should've either done a Dick Dastardly on conf eve [but I don't think he'd stoop so low] or the Kippers needed a bunch of defectors in one go a la the Gang Of Four.
They just didn't have the critical mass and have just pissed the Tories off in one huge go - when they were all together.
The LibDems won a solitary MEP in May under their much cherished PR.
Night everyone.
http://youtu.be/iPUmE-tne5U
I'm rewatching S9 of Supernatural. Have done E1-5 this evening and have the other 18 to go. One of the poorest seasons IMO, I hated Human Castiel and all the plots that went nowhere/Angel Wars that fizzled out.
Just caught up with The Good Wife S6 E1-2 - just brilliant as ever. Scandal E1-2 are just as silly entertainment. Revenge E1-2 is turning on its head. E1-2 Person of Interest is keeping me glued.
I've Castle to do tomorrow, plus a bunch of others. Then I have to watch them all again to make sure I haven't missed anything. I tend to see every episode 2/3 before moving on/deleting them. If I like them - they stay until I run out of space.
I'm thinking of investing in a 3Tr drive as I prefer to keep my favourites handy and off the boxset heap.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/cartoon/?cartoon=11140476&cc=11137684
when you attend or watch on TV a football game here, about every ten yards or so around the edge of the field you will see someone facing the crowd, wearing a daglo vest which says something like 'Event Security" on the back. Their job is to keep the crowd off the field and keep an eye on them.
#11 Ole Miss Rebels took down the mighty #1 Alabama Crimson Tide today. It's the first time that Ole Miss has ever beaten the number 1 ranked team. They are also now 5-0, for the first time since 1962.
The inevitable happened and the crowd - pretty much all 75000 of them - rushed the field. You could clearly see the 'event security' folks helping people over the railing and onto the field.
It was a good day for Mississippi - that happened in Oxford, while over in Starkville, MS State took down Texas A&M. ESPN's Collge Game Day was in Oxford, and SEC Nation was in Starkville.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgrGXrO4AOU
Very smart move to shift Gove to Whip and put Morgan in education.
And that Rochester by election is getting more interesting. I think further defectors will wait for the result, and also will be reluctant to do a Carswell as the clock ticks down on byelections.
youtube.com/watch?v=qhGB5Pd3ko8
Oh Boston Legal is my Go To on a wet Sunday - I know it almost word for word - Candice Bergen and William Shatner are so perfectly matched. James Spader's monologues super.
Supernatural S1 is a bit hard work and shot in Black-O-Vision so it's hard to see what's going on. It really picks up in the second half of S1 - Skin is a brilliantly creepy episode. Then it's superb in S2/3/4/5. S6 is patchy, S7 changes a bit in tone - I love it, but some didn't. S8 is pretty good. Overall - it's score on IMDb of 8.7 is very fair. imdb.com/title/tt0460681/?ref_=nv_sr_2
If you liked The X-Files - a load of the production team/directors were behind Supernatural. There's a hilarious spoof of The X-Files in an episode called Clap Your Hands If You Believe. Have a looksee here at the opening titles > https://youtube.com/watch?v=AN-Jj2SDcls
If they want to go back on Sunday November 9th at 6pm your time, they will get a chance to see America's Team - the Dallas Cowboys.
They're playing the Jacksonvile Jaguars, who are angling to become the London NFL franchise.
They sell the place out - admittedly by NFL standards it's a small stadium - and sell $1 million in merchanidise every game. Sarting next season there will be 4 games there every season.
The tailgating is fantastic. You arrive about 8am for a 3pm game. Everyone sets up their grills in the parking lot. You socialize with those around and swap food and drink - yes alcohol. It is common and usual to do this with the opposing team supporters.
Labour 311, Tories 300, LDs 11, Others 10, NI 18
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/swing-calculator
They're playing the Jacksonvile Jaguars, who are angling to become the London NFL franchise.
They sell the place out - admittedly by NFL standards it's a small stadium - and sell $1 million in merchanidise every game. Sarting next season there will be 4 games there every season.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzINDMZCMAAudxn.jpg