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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation Rochester Poll has UKIP 9% ahead
This leads me to conclude that my assumption that Mark Reckless is no Douglas Carswell in terms of popularity in his seat the way Douglas Carswell is regarded in Clacton.
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Yet some people are still betting on a Labour majority?
The Rochester poll shows a good fight!
tories have a lead on every issue bar health.
Just as well Ed kept all his policies to himself then.
Wordpress messed up, and it omitted a paragraph from the thread header
I've not got the fieldwork dates to hand, but I'm expecting this was conducted in the aftermath of the Tory conference, UKIP had a 9% lead, the bookies making Reckless favourite seem about right, however Mike Smithson said he understood prior to Reckless' defection, there was polling showing Reckless having a double digit lead, so there may wall be worry for the purples that the trend is not their friend.
"Only the LibDems CAN'T beat UKIP in Rochester!"
Imaginary polls don't count.
I can't see many of those Labour voters switching to Tory.
So all things equal, looking good for Reckless... and UKIP...
Survation @Survation 28s27 seconds ago
Where is the UKIP vote coming from? For starters, 42% of people who say they will vote UKIP in the by-election voted Conservative in 2010.
It proves that the onslaught on Mr Reckless by Cammo and his tory minions has had little impact, in spite of a most hard hitting and spiteful attack.
Do we have a date for this by-election?
http://survation.com/rochester-strood-by-election-poll-survation-for-mail-on-sunday/
David Cameron’s net approval rating is up to minus four (45% think he is doing well, 49% doing badly), his best rating since February 2012. By contrast, just 22% think Miliband is doing a good job, while 68% do not, a rating of minus 46. Even among Labour voters, 37% think the party leader is doing badly.
Crucially, the Tories appear to be nullifying Labour’s advantage on the key issue of the NHS.
ELBOW so far this week:
Lab 35.8
Con 32.0
UKIP 14.6
LD 7.5
(Edit cus I got to use a semi-colon!!)
LAB will win 50%
Next weeks BJESUS could well show a significant move away from LAB maj with Populus/LA/YG on Monday only to come
Perhaps we should be re-looking at the Lib Dem lost deposit market - because if the by-elections are any indication then it could be 200+
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
Reckless could win the by election and turn this seat into a three way battle next May.
2010-Con 40%, 2010-Lab 18.5%, 2010-LD 27.8%
Con voters
2010-Con 55.9%, 2010-Lab 3.1%, 2010-LD 21.1%
Lab voters
2010-Con 2.4%, 2010-Lab 76.9%, 2010-LD 24.3%
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Confidential-Rochester-and-Strood-Constituency-Poll-Weighted_Oct03.pdf
Labour 1.75
Conservative 2.36
The R&S poll had Reckless leading by double digits.
That said, though for reasons I can't put my finger on I don't entirely trust Yougov, if the Tories are leading in the polls, there really is nothing for Ed is crap to fall back on. Look at this gogglebox clip posted on Guido:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOB5SxWOWCQ
The interesting thing to note isn't the rather cruel (but nevertheless real) response to Milliband's physical shortcomings, it's that even the Labour family (with the loud gentleman) have not grasped the actual concept of EVFEL (or more accurately its current absence) -this suggests to me that once this is patiently explained, it's a sit back and watch the fireworks conversation.
After Ed Miliband's Omnishambles Speech.
The seat is a pick and mix bag.
However that a 19 point lead translates into a 9 point Westminster poll lead should send alarm bells throughout the Tory party. These are the constituencies in Kent where at the Euros UKIP had a lead in excess of 10 points (the amount the UKIP lead has dropped in this poll)
Thanet South
Thanet North
Sittingbourne & Sheppey (Swale)
Gravesham
Dartford
Folkestone
Dover
Chatham & Aylesford (Medway)
Gillingham & Rainham (Medway)
I doubt the Tories will want to expend resources defending these seats in 2015
Genesis fans may be interested in the documentary currently on BBC2.
Edit: the documentary has finished, they're showing TOTP footage now.
Next time he is on, ask him for the figures if he has them
It's incredible how quickly the mood in Labour has shifted from It'll Be All Right On The Night to Outspoken Doubts
EdM needs to do something serious if he's to stand a chance of pulling back some confidence in his own troops and donors. There's more than a whiff of We're Going To Lose emanating off their own side.
I like it TSE, I like it!
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Carswell winning will surprise no-one but I think the Tories may beat Reckless, but even if they lose but come close it will put off any potential defectors.
Think Ed is toast to be honest.
UKIP will win both. Whoever the other defector was who had cold feet will be emboldened and most probably go through with it this time, at a time for maximum exposure.A few others will be working out if it is worth it for them to cross over or try and fight UKIP in May. Others will be worried about what will happen in their seat when UKIP gain votes.
The papers will be hunting down the defectors. Murdoch will continue tweeting kisses to Nigel.
Ed will just get the popcorn out and enjoy the show.
Female voting intentions
UKIP 34.9%
CONSERVATIVES 33%
LABOUR 28.7%
LIBDEMS 2.4%
GREENS 1%
Thats very interesting, the ladies are leading the UKIP surge in R&S.
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/518349981779251201
That seems statistically significant.
Thanks
: ^)
As far as national voting intention goes, starting to look like Cameron's leadership speech is up there with 2007 for changing the political weather.
"A significant proportion (around 20%) of prior Liberal Democrat voters are now undecided. These undecided Liberal Democrats are the crucial group for the party – will they abstain from voting altogether in 2015 or will they return to the Liberal Democrats or vote for another party?
The changes in 2015 vote intention among those people who voted Liberal Democrat in 2010 between the first (February-March) and second (May-June) BESIP survey show small increases for the Conservatives, UKIP and the Green Party.
The worry for the Liberal Democrats is that so far the decline in undecided prior Liberal Democrat voters appears to be benefiting other parties."
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/where-if-anywhere-will-liberal-democrat-votes-go-in-the-2015-general-election/#.VDBu9L5h3R2
I'm sated on torture porn and ginger snaps right now and feeling mellow... ;^ )
Immediately after reckless defected, I predicted the real odds were something like;
Ukip 1/3
Con 3/1
Lab 8/1
Looks like I was pretty much spot on.
Thank you William hill for going 6/5 on UKIP
Should be under 1/3
I find myself genuinely torn: on the one hand, they continue to register 6-10% in the polls and all the evidence is that their vote is soft; on the other, they've made a ton of gains in local by-elections recently, their local vote share has held up well where they have MPs (even in Portsmouth South), their MPs have by far the best 'net favourability' ratings from constituents, and the Ashcroft marginals poll shows them only having made a small net loss to the Conservative Party.
Basically, I'm too chicken to play the LibDem seat market - but I'm prepared to bet on them losing a monumental number of deposits.
Cool! Which twitter accounts that?
88% of those voting UKIP in the by-election would also vote for Reckless in next year’s general election 3% said they wouldn’t and 9% DK
UKIP voters told us the reason for voting Reckless,was liking UKIP and their policies (70%) vs protest (18%) or liking Reckless (12%).
Data Tables here:
http://survation.com/rochester-strood-by-election-poll-survation-for-mail-on-sunday/
Sample size 1012
Even UKIP are making tax cut promises which appear to increase the deficit from £100billion per year to £200 billion per year.
We need the Office of Budget Responsibility to audit all the parties manifestos and tell the voters the implications for financial prudence and stability.