politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t write off an Autumn Election
Comments
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The hens are coming home to roost. I won't get ahead of myself, but I did always think the electorate would eventually wake up to what was about to happen.TheScreamingEagles said:Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
Labour donor Lord Noon tells Sunday Times Miliband’s mansion tax plans are a "hopeless and desperate idea” that's "going back to the 1970s.”
Mind you, we have the shock of Thursday to come. And remember this time last week it was, apparently, the end of all things blue in the nation? http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/09/27/its-like-back-to-the-90s-for-the-tories-on-what-is-turning-out-to-be-camerons-black-saturday/
Once the UKIP Clacton win subsides it may serve Cameron well because that 'go to bed with Nigel, wake up with Ed' meme is very very smart.
Although not such great value, odds on an outright Conservative win from here? I like the 10/3 currently on offer from William Hill http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/1112310/Next-UK-General-Election-Result.html
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Possibly but I think this is the beginning of the end for Ed.compouter2 said:
Err no, Labour will have leads of between 3% and 5% next week when normal service will resume.Eastwinger said:With Labour stalwarts attacking their own and the polls beginning to turn it's obvious that panic is beginning to set in as the faithful see the prospect of a Labour government slowly slip away.
I appreciate it is conference season, but Ed has two huge problems looming:
1. He has to face the public in the debates, which will not go well.
2. He also has to tell the English public that they cannot have EV4EL.0 -
What are you planning to do with Basil's surplus stocks of tramadol?compouter2 said:
I told you that you had spoiled it for me.....BOOOOOOO!TheScreamingEagles said:Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
YouGov poll for the Sunday Times puts Tories in the lead again. Now a 36% to 34% lead. Donors on the record questioning Miliband's approach0 -
Harold Shipman frankly.Plato said:The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.
Alanbrooke said:
death wish 15Morris_Dancer said:Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
"The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"
It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.
I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.0 -
As ever, Ed will be helped out by the Tory Party.They will get mullered in Clacton, cue loads of jittery Tory MP's telling Cameron where he has gone wrong and the papers playing guess the next defector game for weeks.nigel4england said:
Possibly but I think this is the beginning of the end for Ed.compouter2 said:
Err no, Labour will have leads of between 3% and 5% next week when normal service will resume.Eastwinger said:With Labour stalwarts attacking their own and the polls beginning to turn it's obvious that panic is beginning to set in as the faithful see the prospect of a Labour government slowly slip away.
I appreciate it is conference season, but Ed has two huge problems looming:
1. He has to face the public in the debates, which will not go well.
2. He also has to tell the English public that they cannot have EV4EL.
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When are we expecting the Survation Rochester Poll?0
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Between now and 10.30pmLennon said:When are we expecting the Survation Rochester Poll?
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I'm so glad I decided not to go to the cinema tonight.0
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We'll when the YG tables come out if it makes any serious change to this week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW!0
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They are being put on hold for a couple of days. Basil is currently enjoying a french massage in the little time he has before he goes a wandering with the uprights again.Charles said:
What are you planning to do with Basil's surplus stocks of tramadol?compouter2 said:
I told you that you had spoiled it for me.....BOOOOOOO!TheScreamingEagles said:Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
YouGov poll for the Sunday Times puts Tories in the lead again. Now a 36% to 34% lead. Donors on the record questioning Miliband's approach
http://s612.photobucket.com/user/MovieBuff09/media/Funny Pics/SquirrelMassage.gif.html0 -
What chance Rochester stays blue?0
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66% of the polls conducted entirely in October, have had the Tories ahead.
Just saying.0 -
Tipping point.TheScreamingEagles said:66% of the polls conducted entirely in October, have had the Tories ahead.
Just saying.0 -
There has to be a certain irony that the much criticised Stephen Fisher yesterday gave Labour its most positive outlook thus far in his serious of predictions. At this rate can we expect him to forecast a Tory majority next Friday assuming the YouGovs don't give Labour a lead larger than 2-3%0
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Carswell winning will surprise no-one but I think the Tories may beat Reckless, but even if they lose but come close it will put off any potential defectors.compouter2 said:
As ever, Ed will be helped out by the Tory Party.They will get mullered in Clacton, cue loads of jittery Tory MP's telling Cameron where he has gone wrong and the papers playing guess the next defector game for weeks.nigel4england said:
Possibly but I think this is the beginning of the end for Ed.compouter2 said:
Err no, Labour will have leads of between 3% and 5% next week when normal service will resume.Eastwinger said:With Labour stalwarts attacking their own and the polls beginning to turn it's obvious that panic is beginning to set in as the faithful see the prospect of a Labour government slowly slip away.
I appreciate it is conference season, but Ed has two huge problems looming:
1. He has to face the public in the debates, which will not go well.
2. He also has to tell the English public that they cannot have EV4EL.
Think Ed is toast to be honest.0 -
Shaping up nicely.
Level pegging by January...0 -
Don't worry comp's me old pal,once we have lost the GE ,we can start afresh and start getting rid of these pro EU,mass immigration lib dem types ;-)compouter2 said:
They are being put on hold for a couple of days. Basil is currently enjoying a french massage in the little time he has before he goes a wandering with the uprights again.Charles said:
What are you planning to do with Basil's surplus stocks of tramadol?compouter2 said:
I told you that you had spoiled it for me.....BOOOOOOO!TheScreamingEagles said:Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
YouGov poll for the Sunday Times puts Tories in the lead again. Now a 36% to 34% lead. Donors on the record questioning Miliband's approach
http://s612.photobucket.com/user/MovieBuff09/media/Funny Pics/SquirrelMassage.gif.html
We can get our labour party back ;-)
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Listen to Rod if you want to win money. He was one of the very few who nailed it on the button last time.RodCrosby said:Shaping up nicely.
Level pegging by January...
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If Labour/Lib Dems aren't really trying, then there's a chance that like Newark there could be tactical votes from their voters for the Conservatives.peter_from_putney said:What chance Rochester stays blue?
Funny old world.0 -
You go to the cinema a lot! Any recommendations?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm so glad I decided not to go to the cinema tonight.
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You can lay Labour most seats on Betfair at 1.76 #innocentface0
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Maybe his party has seats in Scotland.Alanbrooke said:
Harold Shipman frankly.Plato said:The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.
Alanbrooke said:
death wish 15Morris_Dancer said:Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
"The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"
It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.
I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.0 -
Is the joys of living near a Cineworld cinema and having a cineworld unlimited card.Casino_Royale said:
You go to the cinema a lot! Any recommendations?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm so glad I decided not to go to the cinema tonight.
I really enjoyed Gone Girl and What we did on our holiday0 -
**BETTING POST**
I'll say it again: the 10/1 on a Conservative Minority government at Ladbrokes on the post election government market now looks even better value. Much more generous than the 5/1 at Paddy Power.
I put on the maximum I was allowed (£25) - I was frustrated I wasn't allowed to put on any more.
As PfP says, DYOR.
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Twitter
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 12m12 minutes ago
Labour frontbencher tells Sunday Times Miliband's team are "in the ideas business" while "the rest of us are in the winning votes business".0 -
Why would scots wish to impose SV4EL? Scots are generally fair minded.DecrepitJohnL said:
Maybe his party has seats in Scotland.Alanbrooke said:
Harold Shipman frankly.Plato said:The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.
Alanbrooke said:
death wish 15Morris_Dancer said:Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
"The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"
It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.
I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.0 -
Briton held hostage in Libya freed
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29494784
It'll be interesting to see how this came about ...0 -
Thanks - will check those out. The wife wants to go and see the Riot Club. I think it'll just annoy me.TheScreamingEagles said:
Is the joys of living near a Cineworld cinema and having a cineworld unlimited card.Casino_Royale said:
You go to the cinema a lot! Any recommendations?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm so glad I decided not to go to the cinema tonight.
I really enjoyed Gone Girl and What we did on our holiday
But, if we fail to agree on that, we do have a S1-S3 Game of Thrones boxset to work through.0 -
Closer to 67% isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:66% of the polls conducted entirely in October, have had the Tories ahead.
Just saying.0 -
Surely the FBI identified him a week or two back?Charles said:
They had to identify who he was first.manofkent2014 said:
Cameron has left it until now to order the hunting down of the Jihadi John terrorist?TheScreamingEagles said:Front page of the Sunday Times - Donors hammer death wish Miliband,
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIVN76CAAAnB8n.jpg0 -
What was the ending of Gone Girl like? I ask because the book's ending was awful. Perhaps something to do with the fact that the author admits she ran out of steam two-thirds of the way through, and her editor had to help her finish ...TheScreamingEagles said:
Is the joys of living near a Cineworld cinema and having a cineworld unlimited card.Casino_Royale said:
You go to the cinema a lot! Any recommendations?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm so glad I decided not to go to the cinema tonight.
I really enjoyed Gone Girl and What we did on our holiday
And were the two main characters (esp. Nick Dunne) likeable?0 -
We need a thread urgently, before the Tory poll leads increase further on which "lost cause" seats the Blues can now reasonably expect to win and how many more and which LibDem seats it can expect to capture.
Now he's back in these parts, perhaps antifrank would be so kind as to oblige?0 -
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Saw both this week the latter is very funny and the former really good twistsTheScreamingEagles said:
Is the joys of living near a Cineworld cinema and having a cineworld unlimited card.Casino_Royale said:
You go to the cinema a lot! Any recommendations?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm so glad I decided not to go to the cinema tonight.
I really enjoyed Gone Girl and What we did on our holiday0 -
I was trying not to depress the Labour supporters.bigjohnowls said:
Closer to 67% isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:66% of the polls conducted entirely in October, have had the Tories ahead.
Just saying.0 -
That particular frontbencher is kidding themselves. There is no-one in the Shadow Cabinet who is resonating beyond their own living rooms - let alone with the public at large.fitalass said:Twitter
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 12m12 minutes ago
Labour frontbencher tells Sunday Times Miliband's team are "in the ideas business" while "the rest of us are in the winning votes business".0 -
I've not read the book, but I enjoyed the film a lot.JosiasJessop said:
What was the ending of Gone Girl like? I ask because the book's ending was awful. Perhaps something to do with the fact that the author admits she ran out of steam two-thirds of the way through, and her editor had to help her finish ...TheScreamingEagles said:
Is the joys of living near a Cineworld cinema and having a cineworld unlimited card.Casino_Royale said:
You go to the cinema a lot! Any recommendations?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm so glad I decided not to go to the cinema tonight.
I really enjoyed Gone Girl and What we did on our holiday
And were the two main characters (esp. Nick Dunne) likeable?0 -
We've done this sketch. Even if EV4EL is a good idea, the question remains how to introduce it without antagonising the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish.Alanbrooke said:
Why would scots wish to impose SV4EL? Scots are generally fair minded.DecrepitJohnL said:
Maybe his party has seats in Scotland.Alanbrooke said:
Harold Shipman frankly.Plato said:The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.
Alanbrooke said:
death wish 15Morris_Dancer said:Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
"The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"
It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.
I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.0 -
Ha ha ha that is so funny.fitalass said:Twitter
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 12m12 minutes ago
Labour frontbencher tells Sunday Times Miliband's team are "in the ideas business" while "the rest of us are in the winning votes business".0 -
I would describe the ending as strange and a bit unlikely. Very good film though 2.5 hrs flew byJosiasJessop said:
What was the ending of Gone Girl like? I ask because the book's ending was awful. Perhaps something to do with the fact that the author admits she ran out of steam two-thirds of the way through, and her editor had to help her finish ...TheScreamingEagles said:
Is the joys of living near a Cineworld cinema and having a cineworld unlimited card.Casino_Royale said:
You go to the cinema a lot! Any recommendations?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm so glad I decided not to go to the cinema tonight.
I really enjoyed Gone Girl and What we did on our holiday
And were the two main characters (esp. Nick Dunne) likeable?0 -
Like I said, we'll see if the weekly ELBOW shows any significant changeTheScreamingEagles said:66% of the polls conducted entirely in October, have had the Tories ahead.
Just saying.
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Survation @Survation
Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
That's good. Still prefer the 10/3 outright at Will Hill. May go for both.Casino_Royale said:**BETTING POST**
I'll say it again: the 10/1 on a Conservative Minority government at Ladbrokes on the post election government market now looks even better value. Much more generous than the 5/1 at Paddy Power.
I put on the maximum I was allowed (£25) - I was frustrated I wasn't allowed to put on any more.
As PfP says, DYOR.
Haven't seen any majority markets yet? I'd love to punt on 0-20 and 20-40 majority.0 -
Who cares?DecrepitJohnL said:
We've done this sketch. Even if EV4EL is a good idea, the question remains how to introduce it without antagonising the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish.Alanbrooke said:
Why would scots wish to impose SV4EL? Scots are generally fair minded.DecrepitJohnL said:
Maybe his party has seats in Scotland.Alanbrooke said:
Harold Shipman frankly.Plato said:The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.
Alanbrooke said:
death wish 15Morris_Dancer said:Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
"The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"
It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.
I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.0 -
Nick Dunne - well, he's a guy, I suppose.JosiasJessop said:
What was the ending of Gone Girl like? I ask because the book's ending was awful. Perhaps something to do with the fact that the author admits she ran out of steam two-thirds of the way through, and her editor had to help her finish ...TheScreamingEagles said:
Is the joys of living near a Cineworld cinema and having a cineworld unlimited card.Casino_Royale said:
You go to the cinema a lot! Any recommendations?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm so glad I decided not to go to the cinema tonight.
I really enjoyed Gone Girl and What we did on our holiday
And were the two main characters (esp. Nick Dunne) likeable?
Amy Dunne? If you need to ask ......0 -
As someone from NI it doesn't antagonise me in the least - rather I ask why the english are such arseholes to put up with this crap.DecrepitJohnL said:
We've done this sketch. Even if EV4EL is a good idea, the question remains how to introduce it without antagonising the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish.Alanbrooke said:
Why would scots wish to impose SV4EL? Scots are generally fair minded.DecrepitJohnL said:
Maybe his party has seats in Scotland.Alanbrooke said:
Harold Shipman frankly.Plato said:The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.
Alanbrooke said:
death wish 15Morris_Dancer said:Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
"The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"
It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.
I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.0 -
That is winnable by two parties.TheScreamingEagles said:Survation @Survation
Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)0 -
Why would it antagonise those of us west of Offa's dike?DecrepitJohnL said:
We've done this sketch. Even if EV4EL is a good idea, the question remains how to introduce it without antagonising the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish.Alanbrooke said:
Why would scots wish to impose SV4EL? Scots are generally fair minded.DecrepitJohnL said:
Maybe his party has seats in Scotland.Alanbrooke said:
Harold Shipman frankly.Plato said:The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.
Alanbrooke said:
death wish 15Morris_Dancer said:Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
"The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"
It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.
I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.0 -
What a tantalising poll.TheScreamingEagles said:Survation @Survation
Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)0 -
Thanks mrs BJ has hidden the razor bladesTheScreamingEagles said:
I was trying not to depress the Labour supporters.bigjohnowls said:
Closer to 67% isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:66% of the polls conducted entirely in October, have had the Tories ahead.
Just saying.
I am growing a beard until LAB retake the lead.
Well it gives me a headstart for Movember0 -
There will be some time to get the info transferred and then validated. And then a couple of days to assess the options and make a recommendation. And then a couple of days for Cameron to consider the political, legal and moral implications of his order*DecrepitJohnL said:
Surely the FBI identified him a week or two back?Charles said:
They had to identify who he was first.manofkent2014 said:
Cameron has left it until now to order the hunting down of the Jihadi John terrorist?TheScreamingEagles said:Front page of the Sunday Times - Donors hammer death wish Miliband,
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIVN76CAAAnB8n.jpg
* unless I am reading too much into @manofkent's use of the term "hunting down"0 -
I think a majority is a huge stretch. That price doesn't attract me, although I do have a "saver" on Betfair for it.audreyanne said:TheScreamingEagles said:
That's good. Still prefer the 10/3 outright at Will Hill. May go for both.Casino_Royale said:**BETTING POST**
I'll say it again: the 10/1 on a Conservative Minority government at Ladbrokes on the post election government market now looks even better value. Much more generous than the 5/1 at Paddy Power.
I put on the maximum I was allowed (£25) - I was frustrated I wasn't allowed to put on any more.
As PfP says, DYOR.
Haven't seen any majority markets yet? I'd love to punt on 0-20 and 20-40 majority.0 -
Did you see HIGNFY with the extraordinary Newsnight caption? How on earth they got that through the system I don't know, unless there really are rumours of EdM cottaging up on the heath:oxfordsimon said:
That particular frontbencher is kidding themselves. There is no-one in the Shadow Cabinet who is resonating beyond their own living rooms - let alone with the public at large.fitalass said:Twitter
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 12m12 minutes ago
Labour frontbencher tells Sunday Times Miliband's team are "in the ideas business" while "the rest of us are in the winning votes business".
"Gareth"
Met Ed on Hampstead Heath0 -
Poor YouGov for Labour...
Meanwhile the October MEF (Murali Election Forecast) is out...
Con 288 (-3)
Lab 309 (+5)
LD 25 (-1)
UKIP 1 (-)
Others 27 (-1)
Changes against Sept MEF.
NOM still the favourite according to MEF.0 -
The offence of the Scots, Welsh and Northern Ireland does not matter more than a genuine unfairness to the English. Anyone that says it does effectively wants the English to be second class citizens in their own country.DecrepitJohnL said:
We've done this sketch. Even if EV4EL is a good idea, the question remains how to introduce it without antagonising the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish.Alanbrooke said:
Why would scots wish to impose SV4EL? Scots are generally fair minded.DecrepitJohnL said:
Maybe his party has seats in Scotland.Alanbrooke said:
Harold Shipman frankly.Plato said:The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.
Alanbrooke said:
death wish 15Morris_Dancer said:Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
"The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"
It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.
I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.0 -
Interesting thing about the Freedom Referendum is that it shows the Unionist/Nationalist split in Scotland is very similar to that in NI (55% v. 45%).Alanbrooke said:
As someone from NI it doesn't antagonise me in the least - rather I ask why the english are such arseholes to put up with this crap.DecrepitJohnL said:
We've done this sketch. Even if EV4EL is a good idea, the question remains how to introduce it without antagonising the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish.Alanbrooke said:
Why would scots wish to impose SV4EL? Scots are generally fair minded.DecrepitJohnL said:
Maybe his party has seats in Scotland.Alanbrooke said:
Harold Shipman frankly.Plato said:The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.
Alanbrooke said:
death wish 15Morris_Dancer said:Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
"The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"
It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.
I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.0 -
Britain Elects @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago
Rochester & Strood poll (Survation):
UKIP - 40% (+40)
CON - 31% (-18)
LAB - 25% (-3)
LDEM - 2% (-14)
UKIPUKIPUKIPUKIPUKIPUKIPUKIPUKIP0 -
Look at the previous quotes -- it explains why Nick Clegg is less cavalier than some about his party being seen as anti-Scottish.nigel4england said:
Who cares?DecrepitJohnL said:
We've done this sketch. Even if EV4EL is a good idea, the question remains how to introduce it without antagonising the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish.Alanbrooke said:
Why would scots wish to impose SV4EL? Scots are generally fair minded.DecrepitJohnL said:
Maybe his party has seats in Scotland.Alanbrooke said:
Harold Shipman frankly.Plato said:The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.
Alanbrooke said:
death wish 15Morris_Dancer said:Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
"The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"
It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.
I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.0 -
9points clear for Reckless - enough of a gap that you understand why he went for it, but small enough that it's clearly still worth the Tories throwing the kitchen sink and everything else they possible have to hand at it. Interesting Times as they say...TheScreamingEagles said:Survation @Survation
Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)0 -
So Tories only 9% behind in Rochester when no candidate has yet been selected and no date set. Adequate time to pull things back and show Mark he was too reckless!0
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I'm trying to work out if I want to see it or not (if I get the time). I hated the book to a rather illogical degree, so it would be interesting to see if the film improved on it. Which, to be frank, would not be hard.bigjohnowls said:
I would describe the ending as strange and a bit unlikely. Very good film though 2.5 hrs flew byJosiasJessop said:
What was the ending of Gone Girl like? I ask because the book's ending was awful. Perhaps something to do with the fact that the author admits she ran out of steam two-thirds of the way through, and her editor had to help her finish ...TheScreamingEagles said:
Is the joys of living near a Cineworld cinema and having a cineworld unlimited card.Casino_Royale said:
You go to the cinema a lot! Any recommendations?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm so glad I decided not to go to the cinema tonight.
I really enjoyed Gone Girl and What we did on our holiday
And were the two main characters (esp. Nick Dunne) likeable?0 -
Was this conducted entirely in October if so 67% becomes 50%?TheScreamingEagles said:Survation @Survation
Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)0 -
Could be close. If the Tories swarm the seat with groundworkers, and have their MERLIN database up to date, they could do a good canvass pretty quickly.oxfordsimon said:
That is winnable by two parties.TheScreamingEagles said:Survation @Survation
Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)
Firm up the Con>UKIP waverers, whilst appealing to the softer Lab voters for tactical votes. Tough, but do-able.
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Oh My - reviewing my betting positions, and the Rochester screen seems to have gone rather terrible for the blues.0
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According to OGH UKIP had a double digit lead in the pre-defection polling - maybe the tide has already turned on Reckless,0
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Yep. A 3% reduction in immigration over four years. That's toughness!TheScreamingEagles said:Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
Lord Noon tells Sunday Times Miliband needs to "buck up" and complains Labour not "tough" on immigration like Theresa May0 -
New Thread0
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Interesting poll taken at Peak Tory time at the end of their conference. Reckless not home and dry but his favourite status looks accurate.0
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That's not a National poll!bigjohnowls said:
Was this conducted entirely in October if so 67% becomes 50%?TheScreamingEagles said:Survation @Survation
Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)0 -
UKIP Vote is less than 2 points below Medway's Euro election voteshareTheScreamingEagles said:Survation @Survation
Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)
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Well, during Indyref, the main UK parties were united in wanting the UK to remain as one. That means either a drastically new constitutional settlement, or it means accepting there will be some anomalies that we all have to live with.Socrates said:
The offence of the Scots, Welsh and Northern Ireland does not matter more than a genuine unfairness to the English. Anyone that says it does effectively wants the English to be second class citizens in their own country.DecrepitJohnL said:
We've done this sketch. Even if EV4EL is a good idea, the question remains how to introduce it without antagonising the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish.Alanbrooke said:
Why would scots wish to impose SV4EL? Scots are generally fair minded.DecrepitJohnL said:
Maybe his party has seats in Scotland.Alanbrooke said:
Harold Shipman frankly.Plato said:The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.
Alanbrooke said:
death wish 15Morris_Dancer said:Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
"The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"
It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.
I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.0 -
And it'd be interesting to know the fieldwork.Easterross said:So Tories only 9% behind in Rochester when no candidate has yet been selected and no date set. Adequate time to pull things back and show Mark he was too reckless!
As you say, without even their candidate in place … all to play for. Hope Reckless is starting to sweat, although that could be attributed to other reasons.0 -
Why would it? Polling suggests the Scots do not see it as an issue and SNP MPs already practice it. The only people it is an issue to are English Labour who see the loss of a block of votes where the MPs shouldn't be voting in the first place.DecrepitJohnL said:
We've done this sketch. Even if EV4EL is a good idea, the question remains how to introduce it without antagonising the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish.Alanbrooke said:
Why would scots wish to impose SV4EL? Scots are generally fair minded.DecrepitJohnL said:
Maybe his party has seats in Scotland.Alanbrooke said:
Harold Shipman frankly.Plato said:The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge.
Alanbrooke said:
death wish 15Morris_Dancer said:Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
"The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"
It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.
I really don't get why Clegg is taking this position. Forced differentiation possibly but it's just the wrong issue.
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Incidentally, that's another poll (after the H&M by-election poll) where a 2010 LibDem vote in the teens has effectively disappeared.0
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Don't think you can push a local to a national dear fellow. Otherwise we'll be skewed this way and that.bigjohnowls said:
Was this conducted entirely in October if so 67% becomes 50%?TheScreamingEagles said:Survation @Survation
Survation for Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood Headline voting: CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)0 -
They always caveat it though. I've yet to hear anyone offer anything of substance. Which is why Cameron is waiting to make up his demands. His demands will fit what he gets, rather than vice versa.TheScreamingEagles said:THE most senior ministers of Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, have privately promised to help David Cameron secure a new deal with Brussels to ensure Britain “never” leaves the European Union, The Sunday Times can reveal.
In a boost to Cameron, Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, and Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the foreign minister, told Philip Hammond, the British foreign secretary, that they will work with him to get Britain what it needs to remain part of the EU.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1467347.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_10_040 -
Tyke - We will take our party back from the seats of government. Don't forget to buy the champers to celebrate when your sponsored Labour man wins Corby.Tykejohnno said:
Don't worry comp's me old pal,once we have lost the GE ,we can start afresh and start getting rid of these pro EU,mass immigration lib dem types ;-)compouter2 said:
They are being put on hold for a couple of days. Basil is currently enjoying a french massage in the little time he has before he goes a wandering with the uprights again.Charles said:
What are you planning to do with Basil's surplus stocks of tramadol?compouter2 said:
I told you that you had spoiled it for me.....BOOOOOOO!TheScreamingEagles said:Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
YouGov poll for the Sunday Times puts Tories in the lead again. Now a 36% to 34% lead. Donors on the record questioning Miliband's approach
http://s612.photobucket.com/user/MovieBuff09/media/Funny Pics/SquirrelMassage.gif.html
We can get our labour party back ;-)
Still putting the rest of the Labour wins together for all of the PB Hodges so they do not get jeolous of you.
Back to tonights poll.....This could be the biggest fall back down the hill so far. The Grand old duke of York has nothing on the PB Hodges on here.0 -
UKIP will win both. Whoever the other defector was who had cold feet will be emboldened and most probably go through with it this time, at a time for maximum exposure.A few others will be working out if it is worth it for them to cross over or try and fight UKIP in May. Others will be worried about what will happen in their seat when UKIP gain votes.nigel4england said:
Carswell winning will surprise no-one but I think the Tories may beat Reckless, but even if they lose but come close it will put off any potential defectors.compouter2 said:
As ever, Ed will be helped out by the Tory Party.They will get mullered in Clacton, cue loads of jittery Tory MP's telling Cameron where he has gone wrong and the papers playing guess the next defector game for weeks.nigel4england said:
Possibly but I think this is the beginning of the end for Ed.compouter2 said:
Err no, Labour will have leads of between 3% and 5% next week when normal service will resume.Eastwinger said:With Labour stalwarts attacking their own and the polls beginning to turn it's obvious that panic is beginning to set in as the faithful see the prospect of a Labour government slowly slip away.
I appreciate it is conference season, but Ed has two huge problems looming:
1. He has to face the public in the debates, which will not go well.
2. He also has to tell the English public that they cannot have EV4EL.
Think Ed is toast to be honest.
The papers will be hunting down the defectors. Murdoch will continue tweeting kisses to Nigel.
Ed will just get the popcorn out and enjoy the show.0 -
Just spotted Lib Dem 2% - Christ on a bike.
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You hit the nail square on the head. And while Salmond decides to wipe out the debts of poll tax dodgers on Thursday, we await the tax raising plans that John Swinney has in store for the many civic minded Scots who not only paid their taxes, but who also bothered to turn out and vote for the last twenty five years too. Lets see who gets the solidarity and fairness here?!
Twitter
sunday herald @newsundayherald 7m7 minutes ago
Finance Secretary @JohnSwinney to announce first Scottish taxes in budget based on 'fairness and solidarity' ... in tomorrow's paperEdin_Rokz said:
A point that I would have expected our ex RBS accountant to have remembered is that outstanding debts are still recorded on council accounts and as such still have a value.fitalass said:O/T Telegraph - Alex Salmond rings into radio talk show to attack local council leader
'The First Minister accuses the leader of Aberdeenshire Council of trying to frighten Poll Tax dodgers after ringing into a BBC Scotland talk show.'
So over to the Scottish Justice Minister who then tweeted this late last night.
Twitter
Kenny MacAskill SNP @KennyMacAskill · 21h 21 hours ago
In southern states of USA post civil war poll tax and other ruses were used to disenfranchise Black people. In 2014 we have Aberdeenshire.
STVNews - Kenny MacAskill faces calls to apologise over poll tax tweet
"“Mr MacAskill wasn't making a comparison between the two situations, and would obviously never do so.”"
If he realised that by his statement at the start of FMQ's he has inadvertently confirmed that he will have to authorise payment to the councils to remove the debt from their records. Around £460 million according to different sources.
If he had left it to Swinney to make the announcement, watched the fallout, he could have then come in and produced an alternative solution and proven himself the consummate politician.
Once again, by grandstanding, he has dropped himself in the doodah! Pity Nicola wasn't there to talk him out of it. Now she will have to clear up the mess, again.
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