politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t write off an Autumn Election
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@foxinsoxuk
'Jeremy Browne's article is here:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/jeremy-browne-lib-dem-leadership-contest-must-include-free-market-candidate
Surely he's in the wrong party?0 -
Whats a matter you?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Shaddapa your face!TheScreamingEagles said:
This means nothing to me.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Nice one! But "Vienna" was officially an Ultravox song.TheScreamingEagles said:
You'll appreciate this.Sunil_Prasannan said:
"ONLY the Tories can beat Red Ed in 2015!"TheScreamingEagles said:
I promise if it is a Tory lead tonight you'll get a bar chart.peter_from_putney said:
Ah yes, I remember it well, that would be the one which was greeted here with a solid red bar chart iirc in response!TheScreamingEagles said:
There's only one poll that's worth looking at this week. Thursday's YouGov. The New Gold StandardSunil_Prasannan said:
I'm not expecting ELBOW to change much this weekTheScreamingEagles said:The only Westminster poll I'm expecting tonight is the YouGov for T'Sunday Times.
Ed = Joe Dolce
Dave = Midge Ure/Ultravox0 -
Things looking bad for the town of Kobane, Syria.
MSF CO-FOUNDER: IF #KOBANE FALLS, TURKEY ALSO RESPONSIBLE 4 #KobaneGenocide ☛ http://t.co/g9EK4mqZcB #DrWidad☮ pic.twitter.com/FtIN9WPABD
— Dr Widad Akrawi (@DrWidadAkrawi) October 4, 20140 -
I cannot see free schools lasting more than one round of parents, to be honest.foxinsoxuk said:
Jeremy Browne's article is here:rottenborough said:
Of course the LibDems will survive, but they need a period of opposition to go away and decide what they collectively believe in.stodge said:Afternoon all
As one of the 6% and one of the last seven or eight LDs left in the country (apparently), there's lots for me to comment on from the largely negative postings of the past couple few days.
I'm absolutely convinced the Party will survive - 7.5% and six seats in 1970 didn't destroy us and I don't think even the most optimistic anti-LD is saying six seats or fewer so the party will go on albeit to a different tune.
I've commented on here and elsewhere about Nick's mistakes - AV was never and has never been Party policy. In many ways, it's as disproportionate as FPTP. I presume either we offered a referendum on STV in the post-election negotiations and were rebuffed or didn't offer it because we knew we would be rebuffed.
Very few in the LDs shed any tears for the demise of AV - I do accept it was a personal humiliation for Nick following the tuition fees debacle. The problem with credibility is once lost it's incredibly tough to regain.
My view has long been that the Party will (unless a miracle happens and 50+ MPS are returned) not seek to go into Coalition or any other arrangement after the next election. IF either the Labour or Conservative parties need a Coalition partner next May, it will be the likes of SNP or UKIP (if they have any MPs) to do the heavy lifting.
There was a fascinating defeatist piece by Amol Rajan in Wednesday's Evening Standard saying next year would be a good election for Labour to lose and pointing out the not inconsiderable obstacles facing the 2015-2020 Government. Politics doesn't work like that - nobody seriously wants to lose though positioning oneself is always helpful.
I notice Jeremy Browne was in this week's NewStatesman offering a third alternative for Liberals: not social liberalism nor Clegg/Orange book, but what he calls 360 degree Liberalism with a strong emphasis on economic liberalism, free markets, profit in public services etc. He has a book coming soon.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/jeremy-browne-lib-dem-leadership-contest-must-include-free-market-candidate
I cannot see him winning if he stands, but he does at least set out his stall well.0 -
That guy off Eastenders doing keepy uppy with his partner's head!! Amazing!audreyanne said:
I think you're confusing two different issues Peter. This is a site about political betting. It isn't William Hill. By which I mean, if we end up with every comment, analysis, counter-suggestion or, indeed, proposal of appropriate odds being followed by you asking us into the betting shop to pull out our coinage the place will descend into farce. I and the vast majority of people on here will continue to make political analysis without you swooping with a 'betcha'.Peter_the_Punter said:audreyanne said:Peter:
>> Moi?
"Seriously, I think 8/1 is a bit low. But 800/1 was way, way too high, and kind of derisive of an interesting and thoughtful piece by a respected punting-politico.
Anyway, you make a good point Peter that there are people here not only who do bet, but occasionally bet large amounts. This gives a dimension that is different from many, or all, other sites. There's nothing quite like money for talking.
Most suggestions of fanciful odds are plainly hypothetical, but it's not a bad idea idea to think 'what if...' before stating them.
I was quite serious. The chances of a General Election being held this autumn are 800-1 or longer in my view. The chances are better than QPR winning the Premier League but not by a lot.
Strictly seems to have some decent dancers this time. Pixie Lott was very elegant tonight, but no that's not an invitation for a bet …
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Cheers.foxinsoxuk said:
New series on eighties music on BBC4 tonight. They have a treasure chest full of shoulderpads and big hair.TheScreamingEagles said:
This means nothing to me.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Nice one! But "Vienna" was officially an Ultravox song.TheScreamingEagles said:
You'll appreciate this.Sunil_Prasannan said:
"ONLY the Tories can beat Red Ed in 2015!"TheScreamingEagles said:
I promise if it is a Tory lead tonight you'll get a bar chart.peter_from_putney said:
Ah yes, I remember it well, that would be the one which was greeted here with a solid red bar chart iirc in response!TheScreamingEagles said:
There's only one poll that's worth looking at this week. Thursday's YouGov. The New Gold StandardSunil_Prasannan said:
I'm not expecting ELBOW to change much this weekTheScreamingEagles said:The only Westminster poll I'm expecting tonight is the YouGov for T'Sunday Times.
Ed = Joe Dolce
Dave = Midge Ure/Ultravox
Clashes a bit with Leicester City giving away points to OGH though..
I love 80s music.0 -
Survation @Survation
**POLL ALERT** Has Reckless been reckless? - Survation for the Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood. Around 10.30-11pm. Stay tuned...0 -
LDs are a broad church! Though I would sit in the same pew.john_zims said:@foxinsoxuk
'Jeremy Browne's article is here:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/jeremy-browne-lib-dem-leadership-contest-must-include-free-market-candidate
Surely he's in the wrong party?0 -
I predict Reckless is ahead but not by an unassailable amount.0
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Really? We've never noticed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I love 80s music.foxinsoxuk said:
New series on eighties music on BBC4 tonight. They have a treasure chest full of shoulderpads and big hair.TheScreamingEagles said:
This means nothing to me.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Nice one! But "Vienna" was officially an Ultravox song.TheScreamingEagles said:
You'll appreciate this.Sunil_Prasannan said:
"ONLY the Tories can beat Red Ed in 2015!"TheScreamingEagles said:
I promise if it is a Tory lead tonight you'll get a bar chart.peter_from_putney said:
Ah yes, I remember it well, that would be the one which was greeted here with a solid red bar chart iirc in response!TheScreamingEagles said:
There's only one poll that's worth looking at this week. Thursday's YouGov. The New Gold StandardSunil_Prasannan said:
I'm not expecting ELBOW to change much this weekTheScreamingEagles said:The only Westminster poll I'm expecting tonight is the YouGov for T'Sunday Times.
Ed = Joe Dolce
Dave = Midge Ure/Ultravox
Clashes a bit with Leicester City giving away points to OGH though..
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I know, I've been far too subtle with my musical references.MarkHopkins said:
Really? We've never noticed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I love 80s music.foxinsoxuk said:
New series on eighties music on BBC4 tonight. They have a treasure chest full of shoulderpads and big hair.TheScreamingEagles said:
This means nothing to me.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Nice one! But "Vienna" was officially an Ultravox song.TheScreamingEagles said:
You'll appreciate this.Sunil_Prasannan said:
"ONLY the Tories can beat Red Ed in 2015!"TheScreamingEagles said:
I promise if it is a Tory lead tonight you'll get a bar chart.peter_from_putney said:
Ah yes, I remember it well, that would be the one which was greeted here with a solid red bar chart iirc in response!TheScreamingEagles said:
There's only one poll that's worth looking at this week. Thursday's YouGov. The New Gold StandardSunil_Prasannan said:
I'm not expecting ELBOW to change much this weekTheScreamingEagles said:The only Westminster poll I'm expecting tonight is the YouGov for T'Sunday Times.
Ed = Joe Dolce
Dave = Midge Ure/Ultravox
Clashes a bit with Leicester City giving away points to OGH though..0 -
Whoa. Interesting.TheScreamingEagles said:Survation @Survation
**POLL ALERT** Has Reckless been reckless? - Survation for the Mail on Sunday. Rochester & Strood. Around 10.30-11pm. Stay tuned...
He seems to be disliked as much as Carswell is liked. There would be Conservatives (and a few others) cheering for hours on end up and down the country if he loses.0 -
I thought he was Baron Samedi myself. Now there's a supernatural character with a sense of fun.OldKingCole said:
Not another Zombie?HYUFD said:Notorious former Haitian President Jean-Claude 'Baby Doc' Duvalier dead from a heart attack
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-294922620 -
@TRobinsonNewEra @EnglandsAce this is why I am on total agreement with UKIP policy regarding our servicemen. pic.twitter.com/FGP5bLPYHD
— LawrenceBrewer (@brewer_lar) October 4, 20140 -
Except that was the term they used for the 7pt --> -1pt lead.NickPalmer said:
I'd think it shows a small lead either way. "Interesting" is too restrained for a large change.Charles said:
Well, Mr Dancer, silence also has its virtuesMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Charles, well, no journalist is going to describe their own poll as tedious, boring or predictable, are they?
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I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.Charles said:
Except that was the term they used for the 7pt --> -1pt lead.NickPalmer said:
I'd think it shows a small lead either way. "Interesting" is too restrained for a large change.Charles said:
Well, Mr Dancer, silence also has its virtuesMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Charles, well, no journalist is going to describe their own poll as tedious, boring or predictable, are they?
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I really do not want a "good" Labour show in third place in Rochester. I would prefer Labour were not only a "also ran" but almost "non descript".
No need to give succour to Tory meme , "Vote Nigel and get Ed" !0 -
No party will get a double digit lead until 2016 at the earliest.TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.Charles said:
Except that was the term they used for the 7pt --> -1pt lead.NickPalmer said:
I'd think it shows a small lead either way. "Interesting" is too restrained for a large change.Charles said:
Well, Mr Dancer, silence also has its virtuesMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Charles, well, no journalist is going to describe their own poll as tedious, boring or predictable, are they?
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The Betcha Gambit can indeed be tedious, Audrey.audreyanne said:
I think you're confusing two different issues Peter. This is a site about political betting. It isn't William Hill. By which I mean, if we end up with every comment, analysis, counter-suggestion or, indeed, proposal of appropriate odds being followed by you asking us into the betting shop to pull out our coinage the place will descend into farce. I and the vast majority of people on here will continue to make political analysis without you swooping with a 'betcha'.Peter_the_Punter said:audreyanne said:Peter:
>> Moi?
"Seriously, I think 8/1 is a bit low. But 800/1 was way, way too high, and kind of derisive of an interesting and thoughtful piece by a respected punting-politico.
Anyway, you make a good point Peter that there are people here not only who do bet, but occasionally bet large amounts. This gives a dimension that is different from many, or all, other sites. There's nothing quite like money for talking.
Most suggestions of fanciful odds are plainly hypothetical, but it's not a bad idea idea to think 'what if...' before stating them.
I was quite serious. The chances of a General Election being held this autumn are 800-1 or longer in my view. The chances are better than QPR winning the Premier League but not by a lot.
Strictly seems to have some decent dancers this time. Pixie Lott was very elegant tonight, but no that's not an invitation for a bet …
Tim, once of this parish, used it to excess and sometimes as a form of intimidation, which is a pity because used constructively it's a great way to bring bulls*itters down to earth. That's not to say I think you are a bs, although I did think you were rather airily dismissive of a well-argued piece and plausible shot at the odds.
Are you sure about 800/1? That's a 0.125% probability. Even the 25/1 or so NP and I suggested is only 4%, or 'not very likely' in plain old words, but one chance in 800 is truly a black swan event.
Strictly never recovered from the Ann Widdicombe farce.
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Ed=Sweet!TheScreamingEagles said:
You'll appreciate this.Sunil_Prasannan said:
"ONLY the Tories can beat Red Ed in 2015!"TheScreamingEagles said:
I promise if it is a Tory lead tonight you'll get a bar chart.peter_from_putney said:
Ah yes, I remember it well, that would be the one which was greeted here with a solid red bar chart iirc in response!TheScreamingEagles said:
There's only one poll that's worth looking at this week. Thursday's YouGov. The New Gold StandardSunil_Prasannan said:
I'm not expecting ELBOW to change much this weekTheScreamingEagles said:The only Westminster poll I'm expecting tonight is the YouGov for T'Sunday Times.
Ed = Joe Dolce
Dave = Midge Ure/Ultravox
Dave=Irritating insect?0 -
THE most senior ministers of Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, have privately promised to help David Cameron secure a new deal with Brussels to ensure Britain “never” leaves the European Union, The Sunday Times can reveal.
In a boost to Cameron, Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, and Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the foreign minister, told Philip Hammond, the British foreign secretary, that they will work with him to get Britain what it needs to remain part of the EU.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1467347.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_10_040 -
Well you have just spoiled it now....Tory 2% lead.TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.Charles said:
Except that was the term they used for the 7pt --> -1pt lead.NickPalmer said:
I'd think it shows a small lead either way. "Interesting" is too restrained for a large change.Charles said:
Well, Mr Dancer, silence also has its virtuesMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Charles, well, no journalist is going to describe their own poll as tedious, boring or predictable, are they?
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Peter it's interesting. I guess having watched politics for decades and decades I genuinely think there is no chance of an autumn election. Except there clearly can't be 'no' chance with anything, but there would be nothing comparable in any political event of my lifetime, and I've seen some oddities. I guess we will just have to agree to see the chances of this one differently.
TSE I sincerely hope that's a joke.0 -
Those were the words TSE used yesterday...compouter2 said:
Well you have just spoiled it now....Tory 2% lead.TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.Charles said:
Except that was the term they used for the 7pt --> -1pt lead.NickPalmer said:
I'd think it shows a small lead either way. "Interesting" is too restrained for a large change.Charles said:
Well, Mr Dancer, silence also has its virtuesMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Charles, well, no journalist is going to describe their own poll as tedious, boring or predictable, are they?
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Wow. Given this pollster had no Tory lead since March 2012 and now has two at 1% and 2% … that looks like a trend, although with the caveat of conference season.compouter2 said:
Well you have just spoiled it now....Tory 2% lead.TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.Charles said:
Except that was the term they used for the 7pt --> -1pt lead.NickPalmer said:
I'd think it shows a small lead either way. "Interesting" is too restrained for a large change.Charles said:
Well, Mr Dancer, silence also has its virtuesMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Charles, well, no journalist is going to describe their own poll as tedious, boring or predictable, are they?
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Good evening, everyone.
Just a reminder my pre-race piece is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/japan-pre-race.html
Backed Bottas at 3 for winner without Hamilton/Rosberg, hedged at 1.5. The race is due to start at 7am (seems unlikely but impossible it'll be altered).
Mr. Eagles, nice of the Germans to help us enforce the Treaty of Troyes. Mind you, given how Hollande is viewed (saw a French entrepeneur, Py Girbeau[sp], I think, describe him as something like the worst person in history) maybe the French would agree anyway
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I think compouter was being facetious.audreyanne said:
Wow. Given this pollster had no Tory lead since March 2012 and now has two at 1% and 2% … that looks like a trend, although with the caveat of conference season.compouter2 said:
Well you have just spoiled it now....Tory 2% lead.TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.Charles said:
Except that was the term they used for the 7pt --> -1pt lead.NickPalmer said:
I'd think it shows a small lead either way. "Interesting" is too restrained for a large change.Charles said:
Well, Mr Dancer, silence also has its virtuesMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Charles, well, no journalist is going to describe their own poll as tedious, boring or predictable, are they?
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The Conservatives will want to be in the race in Clacton, and I suspect they will. There is a difference between, say, 15% and 45% behind.0
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Another load of Tory fluff to waive in the eyes of the voters.TheScreamingEagles said:THE most senior ministers of Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, have privately promised to help David Cameron secure a new deal with Brussels to ensure Britain “never” leaves the European Union, The Sunday Times can reveal.
In a boost to Cameron, Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, and Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the foreign minister, told Philip Hammond, the British foreign secretary, that they will work with him to get Britain what it needs to remain part of the EU.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1467347.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_10_04
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audreyanne said:
Peter it's interesting. I guess having watched politics for decades and decades I genuinely think there is no chance of an autumn election. Except there clearly can't be 'no' chance with anything, but there would be nothing comparable in any political event of my lifetime, and I've seen some oddities. I guess we will just have to agree to see the chances of this one differently.
TSE I sincerely hope that's a joke.
When they were electing the last Pope, Paddy Power went 500/1 against Father Dougal McGuire.
Let's agree to disagree.
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Whilst I am sure Germany can influence quite a bit in the EU I doubt it can promise anything of the sort. Unless of course it really is the 4th Reich in disguise?TheScreamingEagles said:THE most senior ministers of Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, have privately promised to help David Cameron secure a new deal with Brussels to ensure Britain “never” leaves the European Union, The Sunday Times can reveal.
In a boost to Cameron, Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, and Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the foreign minister, told Philip Hammond, the British foreign secretary, that they will work with him to get Britain what it needs to remain part of the EU.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1467347.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_10_040 -
Mikkil retweeted
Cheeky Latte @cheekylatte 13m13 minutes ago
Mark Reckless questions Joyce Thacker
http://youtu.be/wu6IqCvEGJM0 -
Darn!Grandiose said:
I think compouter was being facetious.audreyanne said:
Wow. Given this pollster had no Tory lead since March 2012 and now has two at 1% and 2% … that looks like a trend, although with the caveat of conference season.compouter2 said:
Well you have just spoiled it now....Tory 2% lead.TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.Charles said:
Except that was the term they used for the 7pt --> -1pt lead.NickPalmer said:
I'd think it shows a small lead either way. "Interesting" is too restrained for a large change.Charles said:
Well, Mr Dancer, silence also has its virtuesMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Charles, well, no journalist is going to describe their own poll as tedious, boring or predictable, are they?
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A point that I would have expected our ex RBS accountant to have remembered is that outstanding debts are still recorded on council accounts and as such still have a value.fitalass said:O/T Telegraph - Alex Salmond rings into radio talk show to attack local council leader
'The First Minister accuses the leader of Aberdeenshire Council of trying to frighten Poll Tax dodgers after ringing into a BBC Scotland talk show.'
So over to the Scottish Justice Minister who then tweeted this late last night.
Twitter
Kenny MacAskill SNP @KennyMacAskill · 21h 21 hours ago
In southern states of USA post civil war poll tax and other ruses were used to disenfranchise Black people. In 2014 we have Aberdeenshire.
STVNews - Kenny MacAskill faces calls to apologise over poll tax tweet
"“Mr MacAskill wasn't making a comparison between the two situations, and would obviously never do so.”"
If he realised that by his statement at the start of FMQ's he has inadvertently confirmed that he will have to authorise payment to the councils to remove the debt from their records. Around £460 million according to different sources.
If he had left it to Swinney to make the announcement, watched the fallout, he could have then come in and produced an alternative solution and proven himself the consummate politician.
Once again, by grandstanding, he has dropped himself in the doodah! Pity Nicola wasn't there to talk him out of it. Now she will have to clear up the mess, again.0 -
Tonight's YouGov for the Sunday Times
Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 130 -
Evening all, is this it?
Dan Hodges retweeted
17m
charleshymas's avatar
charles hymas @charleshymas
#sundaytimes poll has Tories on 36%, Labour 34%, Ukip 13% and LibDems (on eve of conference) 7%. Expect some "core votery" from Clegg et al0 -
Or maybe he wasn't?audreyanne said:
Darn!Grandiose said:
I think compouter was being facetious.audreyanne said:
Wow. Given this pollster had no Tory lead since March 2012 and now has two at 1% and 2% … that looks like a trend, although with the caveat of conference season.compouter2 said:
Well you have just spoiled it now....Tory 2% lead.TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.Charles said:
Except that was the term they used for the 7pt --> -1pt lead.NickPalmer said:
I'd think it shows a small lead either way. "Interesting" is too restrained for a large change.Charles said:
Well, Mr Dancer, silence also has its virtuesMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Charles, well, no journalist is going to describe their own poll as tedious, boring or predictable, are they?
OK, I'm confused.TheScreamingEagles said:Tonight's YouGov for the Sunday Times
Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 130 -
Wow.TheScreamingEagles said:Tonight's YouGov for the Sunday Times
Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13
Cue the first Baxter post shortly. We need to see a shake-out in a few weeks post conferences to see if this holds, but if it's a trend then it's very interesting.0 -
Just been reading Isabel Hardman's Twitterfeed (as one does), and there are some interesting Clegg comments.
Apparently, he won't let the Conservatives rearrange the deck chairs in Westminster without proper devolution.
Also, regarding English votes for English laws 'fair votes not Tory votes'.
So, sounds like he'll join Labour block/vote against English votes for English laws. If he isn't for that (and I believe he's on record as opposing an English Parliament) then he must still want shitty little pathetic regional assemblies and to carve England up whilst at the same time denying us democratic equality with Scotland.
Apart from being logically inconsistent, democratically indefensible and thoroughly immoral he makes a sound case.0 -
Soarover?TheScreamingEagles said:Tonight's YouGov for the Sunday Times
Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 130 -
I noted OGH was getting very excited because the LibDem conference is in Glasgow. Most Glaswegians probably think the yellow bird symbol means the Jehovah's Witnesses are holding a Convention in the city.0
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The Screaming Eagles @TSEofPB
Tonight's @YouGov for the Sunday Times sees the Tories extending their lead
Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIUGaUIIAA8pRL.jpg0 -
With Labour stalwarts attacking their own and the polls beginning to turn it's obvious that panic is beginning to set in as the faithful see the prospect of a Labour government slowly slip away.0
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My figures are accurate and from the Sunday Times website.Grandiose said:
Or maybe he wasn't?audreyanne said:
Darn!Grandiose said:
I think compouter was being facetious.audreyanne said:
Wow. Given this pollster had no Tory lead since March 2012 and now has two at 1% and 2% … that looks like a trend, although with the caveat of conference season.compouter2 said:
Well you have just spoiled it now....Tory 2% lead.TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.Charles said:
Except that was the term they used for the 7pt --> -1pt lead.NickPalmer said:
I'd think it shows a small lead either way. "Interesting" is too restrained for a large change.Charles said:
Well, Mr Dancer, silence also has its virtuesMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Charles, well, no journalist is going to describe their own poll as tedious, boring or predictable, are they?
OK, I'm confused.TheScreamingEagles said:Tonight's YouGov for the Sunday Times
Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 130 -
No point getting excited over the polls, given we're in conference season and there are three by-elections between now and the elections.0
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What do the major parties always go through the same places? Wouldn't it help people if it, were, for example, at the Barbican once in a while?Easterross said:I noted OGH was getting very excited because the LibDem conference is in Glasgow. Most Glaswegians probably think the yellow bird symbol means the Jehovah's Witnesses are holding a Convention in the city.
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Can someone baxterise this please ?TheScreamingEagles said:The Screaming Eagles @TSEofPB
Tonight's @YouGov for the Sunday Times sees the Tories extending their lead
Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIUGaUIIAA8pRL.jpg0 -
Perhaps Clegg wants to have a game of Limbo at the conference?Morris_Dancer said:Just been reading Isabel Hardman's Twitterfeed (as one does), and there are some interesting Clegg comments.
Apparently, he won't let the Conservatives rearrange the deck chairs in Westminster without proper devolution.
Also, regarding English votes for English laws 'fair votes not Tory votes'.
So, sounds like he'll join Labour block/vote against English votes for English laws. If he isn't for that (and I believe he's on record as opposing an English Parliament) then he must still want shitty little pathetic regional assemblies and to carve England up whilst at the same time denying us democratic equality with Scotland.
Apart from being logically inconsistent, democratically indefensible and thoroughly immoral he makes a sound case.
7% - How low can he go?
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so at least we know Thursday's YouGov wasn't an outlier.
Thought it a bit cruel of OGH to say Survation and Lord Ashcroft are dominating polling at present. Without YouGov we would all be downing bottles of whisky around 10pm Mon-Thur0 -
Tim Stanley retweeted
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 1m1 minute ago
Tonight's Sunday Times poll gives cameron 41 point lead over Ed Miliband on issue of leadership.0 -
Mr. Eastwinger, if this sort of thing persists it'll be interesting to watch Labour's pre-election approach towards Ed Miliband. I suspect the polls will return to a narrow Labour lead fairly soon.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Hopkins, if Clegg weren't so slavishly devoted to the EU he might have a little more time to spend considering the democratic needs of England.
Mr. Maaarsh, that's a hefty gap.0 -
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
YouGov poll for the Sunday Times puts Tories in the lead again. Now a 36% to 34% lead. Donors on the record questioning Miliband's approach0 -
It will fade, the question is a bit or a lot.audreyanne said:
Wow.TheScreamingEagles said:Tonight's YouGov for the Sunday Times
Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13
Cue the first Baxter post shortly. We need to see a shake-out in a few weeks post conferences to see if this holds, but if it's a trend then it's very interesting.
But actually, I hardly think it matters. It turns out that the Conservative manifesto appeals to the voters, and Milliband isn't particularly convincing.
The Tories will hope, and could rightly expect, that the election campaign is similar.
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Front page of the Sunday Times - Donors hammer death wish Miliband,
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIVN76CAAAnB8n.jpg0 -
Baxter
PTY 2010% 2010# POLL GAINS LOSSES TOTAL CON 36.97% 307 36.00% 28 36 299 LAB 29.66% 258 34.00% 55 0 313 LIB 23.56% 57 7.00% 0 46 11 UKIP 3.17% 0 13.00% 0 0 0 NAT 2.26% 9 2.26% 0 0 9 MIN 0.89% 19 0.89% 0 1 18 OTH 3.48% 0 6.85% 0 0 00 -
Well as you may know, I have had a bet with Nick Palmer than the Conservatives will win outright by at least 6%. This could always be the start of a meme emerging: the gradual widening of the Conservative lead ...Grandiose said:
It will fade, the question is a bit or a lot.audreyanne said:
Wow.TheScreamingEagles said:Tonight's YouGov for the Sunday Times
Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13
Cue the first Baxter post shortly. We need to see a shake-out in a few weeks post conferences to see if this holds, but if it's a trend then it's very interesting.
But actually, I hardly think it matters. It turns out that the Conservative manifesto appeals to the voters, and Milliband isn't particularly convincing.
The Tories will hope, and could rightly expect, that the election campaign is similar.0 -
Lab 313, Con 299, LD, 11, Others 18surbiton said:
Can someone baxterise this please ?TheScreamingEagles said:The Screaming Eagles @TSEofPB
Tonight's @YouGov for the Sunday Times sees the Tories extending their lead
Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIUGaUIIAA8pRL.jpg
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Cameron has left it until now to order the hunting down of the Jihadi John terrorist?TheScreamingEagles said:Front page of the Sunday Times - Donors hammer death wish Miliband,
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIVN76CAAAnB8n.jpg0 -
You are probably correct but there are just too many people taking a look at Ed and thinking to themselves, "no thanks".Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eastwinger, if this sort of thing persists it'll be interesting to watch Labour's pre-election approach towards Ed Miliband. I suspect the polls will return to a narrow Labour lead fairly soon.
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Mr. Grandiose, the Baxtering of the numbers will be broadly accurate, but a few should be cut from the blues and given to the purples.
Mr. Eastwinger, indeed. Maybe he should hunt down someone on Hampstead Heath for some advice.0 -
As with Clacton poll, Tory candidates not named yet vs existing named mp. This isn't a level playing field.
Where's that owlBaxterer?0 -
Bloody hell, the Tories have retaken the lead on EDUCATION!0
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It is difficult to model UKIP in UNS. I would say UKIP 2/3 seats and Lib Dem would be better, so would SNP.JohnO said:
Lab 313, Con 299, LD, 11, Others 18surbiton said:
Can someone baxterise this please ?TheScreamingEagles said:The Screaming Eagles @TSEofPB
Tonight's @YouGov for the Sunday Times sees the Tories extending their lead
Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIUGaUIIAA8pRL.jpg
Probably Lab 300, Con 285, LD 26, UKIP 2, Other 280 -
No doubt, Baxtering does not work exactly.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Grandiose, the Baxtering of the numbers will be broadly accurate, but a few should be cut from the blues and given to the purples.
Mr. Eastwinger, indeed. Maybe he should hunt down someone on Hampstead Heath for some advice.
I suggest the Tories and Lab are a little too high; the LDs a little too low and UKIP might pick up a couple (but fewer than 5, in my opinion).
But it makes more sense to quote it and leave everyone to speculate how it might be wrong than to do so myself.0 -
Mr Scrapheap, we need to tone down our language on the traitorous pig dog Reckless.Scrapheap_as_was said:As with Clacton poll, Tory candidates not named yet vs existing named mp. This isn't a level playing field.
Where's that owlBaxterer?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-294843210 -
I went past Ealing Hospital on the 207 bus from Southall and saw two police underwater team vans parked in the bus lane. One of them was from Nottinghamshire and the other was from South Wales. The entry to the River Brent on the other side of the road was cordoned off. It was only then I realised what was happening.dr_spyn said:Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 49s48 seconds ago
RT @TelegraphNews: Body of Alice Gross murder suspect Arnis Zalkalns found in London http://fw.to/ql2RMXO
Pictures of Alice Gross have been posted on letterboxes, lamp posts and telephone boxes all over West London. Yellow ribbons were on trees in Southall and Hanwell.
I was in Southall to attend a Sikh 'wake' for a colleague that has died recently. Not exactly a pleasant Friday afternoon.0 -
She's good, that Nicky Morgan. Not easy for a Tory to go down so well at the teachers union.TheScreamingEagles said:Bloody hell, the Tories have retaken the lead on EDUCATION!
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Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
"The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"
It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.0 -
You are short of nine MPs...surbiton said:
It is difficult to model UKIP in UNS. I would say UKIP 2/3 seats and Lib Dem would be better, so would SNP.JohnO said:
Lab 313, Con 299, LD, 11, Others 18surbiton said:
Can someone baxterise this please ?TheScreamingEagles said:The Screaming Eagles @TSEofPB
Tonight's @YouGov for the Sunday Times sees the Tories extending their lead
Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIUGaUIIAA8pRL.jpg
Probably Lab 300, Con 285, LD 26, UKIP 2, Other 280 -
Tim Stanley @timothy_stanley 55s56 seconds ago
If the latest polls are correct, all of the Lib Dems' voters are at that conference. #ldsconf0 -
MacAskill is just desperately trying to distract people away from the real story of the week - that he has been well and truly whupped over the armed police issue.malcolmg said:
Typical Tories, the moron did not have a clue about what debts were outstanding , collected £2K last year and lying about £1.7M being outstanding. What a turnip Gifford sounded on BBC as Alex ripped him a new erchie and showed him what being a real politician looked like.fitalass said:O/T Telegraph - Alex Salmond rings into radio talk show to attack local council leader
'The First Minister accuses the leader of Aberdeenshire Council of trying to frighten Poll Tax dodgers after ringing into a BBC Scotland talk show.'
So over to the Scottish Justice Minister who then tweeted this late last night.
Twitter
Kenny MacAskill SNP @KennyMacAskill · 21h 21 hours ago
In southern states of USA post civil war poll tax and other ruses were used to disenfranchise Black people. In 2014 we have Aberdeenshire.
STVNews - Kenny MacAskill faces calls to apologise over poll tax tweet
"First Minister Alex Salmond defended his decision to block councils pursuing people for historic poll tax debts on Friday, accusing some local authorities of trying to "put the frighteners on people".
A spokeswoman for the SNP said Mr MacAskill was not comparing the two situations."0 -
I'm looking forward to this Rochester poll. I reckon it'll be all square with a lot of don't knows.
Come what may I think it's going to be one hell of a battle. Loads of Conservatives will be bussed and whipped in, motivated by fear of what will happen if UKIP wins. Likewise, loads of UKIP will make the easy journey from Kent and Essex heartlands determined to throw open the floodgates and chuck the apple cart in with it.0 -
I told you that you had spoiled it for me.....BOOOOOOO!TheScreamingEagles said:Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
YouGov poll for the Sunday Times puts Tories in the lead again. Now a 36% to 34% lead. Donors on the record questioning Miliband's approach0 -
Surely no surprise there?maaarsh said:Tim Stanley retweeted
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 1m1 minute ago
Tonight's Sunday Times poll gives cameron 41 point lead over Ed Miliband on issue of leadership.0 -
A change of presentation was a good call from Cameron on education.foxinsoxuk said:
She's good, that Nicky Morgan. Not easy for a Tory to go down so well at the teachers union.TheScreamingEagles said:Bloody hell, the Tories have retaken the lead on EDUCATION!
He should move toxic Grayling. The dislike of the man is getting too much in the way of the policies, including the British Bill of Rights.
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Just like the "Baxter" I was quoted !OblitusSumMe said:
You are short of nine MPs...surbiton said:
It is difficult to model UKIP in UNS. I would say UKIP 2/3 seats and Lib Dem would be better, so would SNP.JohnO said:
Lab 313, Con 299, LD, 11, Others 18surbiton said:
Can someone baxterise this please ?TheScreamingEagles said:The Screaming Eagles @TSEofPB
Tonight's @YouGov for the Sunday Times sees the Tories extending their lead
Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIUGaUIIAA8pRL.jpg
Probably Lab 300, Con 285, LD 26, UKIP 2, Other 280 -
Err no, Labour will have leads of between 3% and 5% next week when normal service will resume.Eastwinger said:With Labour stalwarts attacking their own and the polls beginning to turn it's obvious that panic is beginning to set in as the faithful see the prospect of a Labour government slowly slip away.
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REVISEDsurbiton said:
It is difficult to model UKIP in UNS. I would say UKIP 2/3 seats and Lib Dem would be better, so would SNP.JohnO said:
Lab 313, Con 299, LD, 11, Others 18surbiton said:
Can someone baxterise this please ?TheScreamingEagles said:The Screaming Eagles @TSEofPB
Tonight's @YouGov for the Sunday Times sees the Tories extending their lead
Con 36, Lab 34, LD 7, UKIP 13
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIUGaUIIAA8pRL.jpg
Probably Lab 300, Con 285, LD 26, UKIP 2, Other 28
Probably Lab 300, Con 285, LD 30, UKIP 2, Other 330 -
death wish 15Morris_Dancer said:Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
"The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"
It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.0 -
"A small lead either way", quoth the oracle. I'd hold the Tory champagne for a week or so - conference effects and by-elections.audreyanne said:
Wow. Given this pollster had no Tory lead since March 2012 and now has two at 1% and 2% … that looks like a trend, although with the caveat of conference season.compouter2 said:
Well you have just spoiled it now....Tory 2% lead.TheScreamingEagles said:
I predict a double digit Labour lead with YouGov.Charles said:
Except that was the term they used for the 7pt --> -1pt lead.NickPalmer said:
I'd think it shows a small lead either way. "Interesting" is too restrained for a large change.Charles said:
Well, Mr Dancer, silence also has its virtuesMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Charles, well, no journalist is going to describe their own poll as tedious, boring or predictable, are they?
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Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
Labour donor Lord Noon tells Sunday Times Miliband’s mansion tax plans are a "hopeless and desperate idea” that's "going back to the 1970s.”0 -
True and not just 'fear.' I think there's deep anger at the manner with which he did it. I suppose, begrudgingly, I can concede Carswell did it with reasonable honour. Reckless has come across as … well let's not spell it out.Blueberry said:I'm looking forward to this Rochester poll. I reckon it'll be all square with a lot of don't knows.
Come what may I think it's going to be one hell of a battle. Loads of Conservatives will be bussed and whipped in, motivated by fear of what will happen if UKIP wins. Likewise, loads of UKIP will make the easy journey from Kent and Essex heartlands determined to throw open the floodgates and chuck the apple cart in with it.0 -
0
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It's beginning to look as though if Miliband doesn't or can't raise his game he'll lose. The Tories look solid in the mid 30's while Ed's support looks as crumbly as Stilton. I think it's time for plan B.0
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Well that's cheered me up no end.compouter2 said:
Err no, Labour will have leads of between 3% and 5% next week when normal service will resume.Eastwinger said:With Labour stalwarts attacking their own and the polls beginning to turn it's obvious that panic is beginning to set in as the faithful see the prospect of a Labour government slowly slip away.
Considering back in January you said there would be no crossover polls before the General Election.0 -
Milliband = King Canutecompouter2 said:
Err no, Labour will have leads of between 3% and 5% next week when normal service will resume.Eastwinger said:With Labour stalwarts attacking their own and the polls beginning to turn it's obvious that panic is beginning to set in as the faithful see the prospect of a Labour government slowly slip away.
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I'll take my cheap thrills when I can get 'em ;^ )
YEAH YouGov The New Gold Standard!Morris_Dancer said:No point getting excited over the polls, given we're in conference season and there are three by-elections between now and the elections.
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Yes it's just occurred to him.manofkent2014 said:
Cameron has left it until now to order the hunting down of the Jihadi John terrorist?TheScreamingEagles said:Front page of the Sunday Times - Donors hammer death wish Miliband,
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIVN76CAAAnB8n.jpg0 -
They both defected and forced a by election !audreyanne said:
True and not just 'fear.' I think there's deep anger at the manner with which he did it. I suppose, begrudgingly, I can concede Carswell did it with reasonable honour. Reckless has come across as … well let's not spell it out.Blueberry said:I'm looking forward to this Rochester poll. I reckon it'll be all square with a lot of don't knows.
Come what may I think it's going to be one hell of a battle. Loads of Conservatives will be bussed and whipped in, motivated by fear of what will happen if UKIP wins. Likewise, loads of UKIP will make the easy journey from Kent and Essex heartlands determined to throw open the floodgates and chuck the apple cart in with it.0 -
Mr. Eagles, you mean, he's Red Ed?
Edited extra bit: Mr. Eastwinger, it's horribly modern, but wasn't King Canute a wise fellow, purposefully demonstrating to his underlings how powerless even a king was in comparison to God?0 -
Holy Polling Booths!maaarsh said:
Tim Stanley retweeted
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 1m1 minute ago
Tonight's Sunday Times poll gives cameron 41 point lead over Ed Miliband on issue of leadership.0 -
remember the days when it was 8-9 % ?compouter2 said:
Err no, Labour will have leads of between 3% and 5% next week when normal service will resume.Eastwinger said:With Labour stalwarts attacking their own and the polls beginning to turn it's obvious that panic is beginning to set in as the faithful see the prospect of a Labour government slowly slip away.
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I cannot be right all the time,though my 2% Tory lead for tonight was bullseye.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well that's cheered me up no end.compouter2 said:
Err no, Labour will have leads of between 3% and 5% next week when normal service will resume.Eastwinger said:With Labour stalwarts attacking their own and the polls beginning to turn it's obvious that panic is beginning to set in as the faithful see the prospect of a Labour government slowly slip away.
Considering back in January you said there would be no crossover polls before the General Election.0 -
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
Lord Noon tells Sunday Times Miliband needs to "buck up" and complains Labour not "tough" on immigration like Theresa May0 -
Anyway, chaps, entertaining as it is to remark upon the woes of Miliband, I'm off. Hopefully I'll wake up in time for the race start, whenever that ends up being (likely 7am).
Goodnight, everyone.0 -
Those were the days Alan, those were the days.Alanbrooke said:
remember the days when it was 8-9 % ?compouter2 said:
Err no, Labour will have leads of between 3% and 5% next week when normal service will resume.Eastwinger said:With Labour stalwarts attacking their own and the polls beginning to turn it's obvious that panic is beginning to set in as the faithful see the prospect of a Labour government slowly slip away.
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The LDs would be polling more highly with either Michael Winner or Charles Bronson in charge. And at least one of them is deceased.Alanbrooke said:
death wish 15Morris_Dancer said:Ah, just seen this from some chap called 'Mike Smithson' [also on Twittter]:
"The LDs "Yes to English votes for English laws. But "fair votes not Tory votes" move throws huge spanner in works. It ain't going to happen"
It's not rocket science. English votes for English laws (preferably as a stopgap to an English Parliament). If he says 'I support the principle' and then votes against it then it won't necessarily repair Clegg's sub-optimal ratings on trust.0 -
They had to identify who he was first.manofkent2014 said:
Cameron has left it until now to order the hunting down of the Jihadi John terrorist?TheScreamingEagles said:Front page of the Sunday Times - Donors hammer death wish Miliband,
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzIVN76CAAAnB8n.jpg0 -
Me too!TheScreamingEagles said:
Cheers.foxinsoxuk said:
New series on eighties music on BBC4 tonight. They have a treasure chest full of shoulderpads and big hair.TheScreamingEagles said:
This means nothing to me.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Nice one! But "Vienna" was officially an Ultravox song.TheScreamingEagles said:
You'll appreciate this.Sunil_Prasannan said:
"ONLY the Tories can beat Red Ed in 2015!"TheScreamingEagles said:
I promise if it is a Tory lead tonight you'll get a bar chart.peter_from_putney said:
Ah yes, I remember it well, that would be the one which was greeted here with a solid red bar chart iirc in response!TheScreamingEagles said:
There's only one poll that's worth looking at this week. Thursday's YouGov. The New Gold StandardSunil_Prasannan said:
I'm not expecting ELBOW to change much this weekTheScreamingEagles said:The only Westminster poll I'm expecting tonight is the YouGov for T'Sunday Times.
Ed = Joe Dolce
Dave = Midge Ure/Ultravox
Clashes a bit with Leicester City giving away points to OGH though..
I love 80s music.0
