Sajd Javid – the latest CON MP to announce that he’s going – politicalbetting.com

Nigelb said:

Stocky said:

kinabalu said:

Stocky said:

Leon said:

Stocky said:

Leon said:

Stocky said:

Leon said:

biggles said:

SandyRentool said:

biggles said:

FrankBooth said:

Stocky said:

On private schools, how about this for a thought experiment (which I routinely dredge up when the subject is raised).

Image a (lucky) couple have £250k in savings which they have resolved to provide exclusively for their child. There are two options:

1) pay for school fees. At the end of the child's A Levels the £250k has gone
2) send to a state school. At the end of the child's A Levels the £250k (plus growth) is still there and child can use it for, say, house deposit, car, pension contribution, ISA, emergencies, etc.

If you were the child, which option would you want your parent to choose?

I disagree with Mrs Stocky on this. She says 1) and I say 2).

It's certainly an interesting question. But you also have to consider the alternative schooling options available.

It also depends on the child, and their planned career choices. Marginal gains at A-Level, and private school swagger (much though I despise it) could be the difference that gets them up the greasy pole in a large law firm. Less relevant if that’s not their thing.

If I had kids, the last thing I'd want them to have is "swagger".

Oh I agree. As I say, I despise it. But that cocky swagger is half of what private schooling delivers.

I hate to think what I'd be like if my parents had sent me to private school, and I'd been given another layer of "cocky swagger"

Dead at 21 probably. I made a good go of it, as is

You didn't go to a private school?

Nope. Bog standard comp

Same here. At break they used to shut the first year in the fenced play area (aka the monkey cage) to protect them from older pupils.

Did you go on the study English? Just interested.

My provincial west-of-England school wasn't particularly rough (tho there were a few fights), it was decidedly average educationally

However there was an excellent VI Form College across the playing fields, to which I fled eagerly (and had a great time with the new freedom - we used to go the pub at lunchtime, imagine). I then went on to do Philosophy at UCL (a total blast)

I had the benefit of an intellectual atmos at home. Lots of books. Also I was fiercely competitive, and desperate to escape my boring hometown and get to London. Uni was the best way

We both went to state schools yet our experience couldn't be more different. My parents didn't have a clue. I hated school and spent most of the time with my head down trying to avoid potential conflict or embarrassment. Bullying was everywhere. It was common for fights to break out in the playground, often sprouting from a game called British Bulldog. Teachers would intervene but not immediately. I think it was entertainment for them - perhaps they placed bets?

It was a great sigh of relief when I left at 16. The year group comprised about 240 boys (a boys comprehensive school). I'd say fewer than 20 stayed on to Sixth Form. Perhaps 8-10 went on to university.

My studying came long after leaving school. Now have three degrees/degree equivalent.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Bulldog_(game)

Yes, remember that well. My technique was to wait until action broke out in the middle and then ghost down the side with the grace of a cat.

My technique was to hide somewhere and hope no one noticed.

I spent every games afternoon in the school library. The chances of anyone else using it were slim to none, so it was an excellent refuge.

SandyRentool said:

kinabalu said:

Stocky said:

Leon said:

Stocky said:

Leon said:

Stocky said:

Leon said:

biggles said:

SandyRentool said:

biggles said:

FrankBooth said:

Stocky said:

On private schools, how about this for a thought experiment (which I routinely dredge up when the subject is raised).

Image a (lucky) couple have £250k in savings which they have resolved to provide exclusively for their child. There are two options:

1) pay for school fees. At the end of the child's A Levels the £250k has gone
2) send to a state school. At the end of the child's A Levels the £250k (plus growth) is still there and child can use it for, say, house deposit, car, pension contribution, ISA, emergencies, etc.

If you were the child, which option would you want your parent to choose?

I disagree with Mrs Stocky on this. She says 1) and I say 2).

It's certainly an interesting question. But you also have to consider the alternative schooling options available.

It also depends on the child, and their planned career choices. Marginal gains at A-Level, and private school swagger (much though I despise it) could be the difference that gets them up the greasy pole in a large law firm. Less relevant if that’s not their thing.

If I had kids, the last thing I'd want them to have is "swagger".

Oh I agree. As I say, I despise it. But that cocky swagger is half of what private schooling delivers.

I hate to think what I'd be like if my parents had sent me to private school, and I'd been given another layer of "cocky swagger"

Dead at 21 probably. I made a good go of it, as is

You didn't go to a private school?

Nope. Bog standard comp

Same here. At break they used to shut the first year in the fenced play area (aka the monkey cage) to protect them from older pupils.

Did you go on the study English? Just interested.

My provincial west-of-England school wasn't particularly rough (tho there were a few fights), it was decidedly average educationally

However there was an excellent VI Form College across the playing fields, to which I fled eagerly (and had a great time with the new freedom - we used to go the pub at lunchtime, imagine). I then went on to do Philosophy at UCL (a total blast)

I had the benefit of an intellectual atmos at home. Lots of books. Also I was fiercely competitive, and desperate to escape my boring hometown and get to London. Uni was the best way

We both went to state schools yet our experience couldn't be more different. My parents didn't have a clue. I hated school and spent most of the time with my head down trying to avoid potential conflict or embarrassment. Bullying was everywhere. It was common for fights to break out in the playground, often sprouting from a game called British Bulldog. Teachers would intervene but not immediately. I think it was entertainment for them - perhaps they placed bets?

It was a great sigh of relief when I left at 16. The year group comprised about 240 boys (a boys comprehensive school). I'd say fewer than 20 stayed on to Sixth Form. Perhaps 8-10 went on to university.

My studying came long after leaving school. Now have three degrees/degree equivalent.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Bulldog_(game)

Yes, remember that well. My technique was to wait until action broke out in the middle and then ghost down the side with the grace of a cat.

We used to play bulldog in the gym in PE lessons. I remember when one lad was so keen to reach the other end of the gym that he ran full pelt into the wall and broke his arm.

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1598675028966531074?t=ctfLeQARzDj5J4RDjfkCxw&s=19

Lab on 459, Con on 101 before tactical voting.

Lab Maj looks like value, and Lab most seats surely nailed on.

The average polling similar to 2008 polls predicting a Cameron landslide, it ended up a hung parliament in 2010

You'd be just a teeny bit heartened by Chester, am I right?

Leon said:

FOR THOUGH THE INTERNET DOTH OFFER JOYS
WE MUST NOT LET IT CONSUME US, BOYS


I think everyone on PB could learn from that. And it was written by a machine

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1598675028966531074?t=ctfLeQARzDj5J4RDjfkCxw&s=19

Lab on 459, Con on 101 before tactical voting.

Lab Maj looks like value, and Lab most seats surely nailed on.

The average polling similar to 2008 polls predicting a Cameron landslide, it ended up a hung parliament in 2010

You'd be just a teeny bit heartened by Chester, am I right?

Lower swing than Yougov has yes

FrankBooth said:

Leon said:

I asked ChatGPT to rewrite the Lord’s Prayer so it explains quantum physics





I then asked it to write a Shakespeare sonnet about internet porn




Not brilliant. But it produced both in 3-5 seconds. This stuff is getting scary

The final two lines of the sonnet, albeit imperfect, are excellent

Have you come across a decent joke yet?

kinabalu said:

"Doth wait, a siren's call to carnal bliss"

Wow. Your computer is certainly in a ruminative mood.

Leon said:

I asked ChatGPT to rewrite the Lord’s Prayer so it explains quantum physics





I then asked it to write a Shakespeare sonnet about internet porn




Not brilliant. But it produced both in 3-5 seconds. This stuff is getting scary

The final two lines of the sonnet, albeit imperfect, are excellent

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

"Doth wait, a siren's call to carnal bliss"

Wow. Your computer is certainly in a ruminative mood.

That line is perfect iambic pentameter

da-DA-da-DA-da-DA-da-DA-da-DUH

Phenomenal. 5 seconds

kyf_100 said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

"Doth wait, a siren's call to carnal bliss"

Wow. Your computer is certainly in a ruminative mood.

That line is perfect iambic pentameter

da-DA-da-DA-da-DA-da-DA-da-DUH

Phenomenal. 5 seconds

so how do you feel now that AI is coming for *your* job?

Dura_Ace said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

SandyRentool said:

biggles said:

FrankBooth said:

Stocky said:

On private schools, how about this for a thought experiment (which I routinely dredge up when the subject is raised).

Image a (lucky) couple have £250k in savings which they have resolved to provide exclusively for their child. There are two options:

1) pay for school fees. At the end of the child's A Levels the £250k has gone
2) send to a state school. At the end of the child's A Levels the £250k (plus growth) is still there and child can use it for, say, house deposit, car, pension contribution, ISA, emergencies, etc.

If you were the child, which option would you want your parent to choose?

I disagree with Mrs Stocky on this. She says 1) and I say 2).

It's certainly an interesting question. But you also have to consider the alternative schooling options available.

It also depends on the child, and their planned career choices. Marginal gains at A-Level, and private school swagger (much though I despise it) could be the difference that gets them up the greasy pole in a large law firm. Less relevant if that’s not their thing.

If I had kids, the last thing I'd want them to have is "swagger".

"Swagger" is a rather loaded term.

Some people have the inner confidence to believe that if they try to make a success of something, they have a good chance of doing so. They seize on opportunities. They have a resilience where setbacks occur. That's all positive, and entirely consistent with being a pleasant, warm and generous person.

Of course, some people have the same confidence and are also total arseholes, but I'm not entirely sure that's a necessary part of what's being referred to.

I reckon one could sort regulars on here into public/state schooled based on their contributions with a very high degree of accuracy.

Leon said:

kyf_100 said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

"Doth wait, a siren's call to carnal bliss"

Wow. Your computer is certainly in a ruminative mood.

That line is perfect iambic pentameter

da-DA-da-DA-da-DA-da-DA-da-DUH

Phenomenal. 5 seconds

so how do you feel now that AI is coming for *your* job?

Kinda glad that I won't really need a career in 20 years!

And sad for all the writers, artists, painters, creators - and coders, lawyers, teachers, bankers, for that matter - who are about to see their professions annihilated, as they know them

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

More Wages of Putinism, this time involving MAGA-maniac & multiple election loser AND denier in WA State.

Seattle Times ($) - $275,000 payout follows Loren Culp’s alleged mishandling of sexual-abuse case

A lawsuit accusing Loren Culp and other police of botching a child sexual-abuse investigation and trying to intimidate the victim has been settled, with Ferry County and the city of Republic agreeing to pay the victim $275,000.

The lawsuit, filed in 2017, alleged that Culp, then a Republic police officer . . . failed to properly investigate allegations in 2013 by a 17-year-old girl who reported she’d been sexually molested by her stepfather since she was 5.

After the dropped probe in Ferry County, the Benton County Sheriff’s Office stepped in at the urging of the girl’s grandparents and swiftly obtained evidence to arrest Roy A. Moore Jr. on child rape, child molestation and incest charges.

Moore pleaded guilty to two counts of first-degree child molestation . . .

Culp, an unsuccessful Republican candidate for governor in 2020 and for Congress this year, was named as a defendant in the lawsuit, along with Venturo, Ferry County and the small town of Republic in northeast Washington.

In an interview this week, the lawsuit plaintiff, now 26, said she feels vindicated by the settlement, recalling she received numerous threats after news of her lawsuit broke during Culp’s gubernatorial campaign. (The Seattle Times typically does not name victims of sexual abuse.) . . .

In a statement this week, Culp contended he’d been vindicated, citing a court order that formally dismissed him as an individual defendant in the lawsuit in mid-November. He criticized the media for reporting on the case and political rivals for running ads highlighting it during his congressional run this year. Culp did not make it out of the August primary in the 4th Congressional District.

“After years of my name being dragged through the mud, I’m happy to have this cleared up and signed by a judge. Now, where do I go to get my reputation back?” Culp said . . . .

Bill Gilbert, the attorney for the plaintiff, said the $275,000 settlement was reached after mediation in the long-running case, and disputed Culp’s characterization.

“Mr. Culp was not vindicated whatsoever by this dismissal,” Gilbert said in an email. . . . "Making a public statement that he was somehow vindicated by the resolution of the case is disingenuous, at best.” . . .

Culp has repeatedly downplayed his role in the sexual-abuse investigation and previously said that Moore’s guilty plea doesn’t mean he’d actually committed a crime. . . .

During their questioning of the girl, Culp asked her what should happen to her stepfather. She replied “he needs to be punished” for “a long time,” according to a transcript of the Nov. 21, 2013, interview.

Culp followed up: “Do you think that somebody that does something like this deserves a second chance?”

dixiedean said:

Korea going through now

ydoethur said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

More Wages of Putinism, this time involving MAGA-maniac & multiple election loser AND denier in WA State.

Seattle Times ($) - $275,000 payout follows Loren Culp’s alleged mishandling of sexual-abuse case

A lawsuit accusing Loren Culp and other police of botching a child sexual-abuse investigation and trying to intimidate the victim has been settled, with Ferry County and the city of Republic agreeing to pay the victim $275,000.

The lawsuit, filed in 2017, alleged that Culp, then a Republic police officer . . . failed to properly investigate allegations in 2013 by a 17-year-old girl who reported she’d been sexually molested by her stepfather since she was 5.

After the dropped probe in Ferry County, the Benton County Sheriff’s Office stepped in at the urging of the girl’s grandparents and swiftly obtained evidence to arrest Roy A. Moore Jr. on child rape, child molestation and incest charges.

Moore pleaded guilty to two counts of first-degree child molestation . . .

Culp, an unsuccessful Republican candidate for governor in 2020 and for Congress this year, was named as a defendant in the lawsuit, along with Venturo, Ferry County and the small town of Republic in northeast Washington.

In an interview this week, the lawsuit plaintiff, now 26, said she feels vindicated by the settlement, recalling she received numerous threats after news of her lawsuit broke during Culp’s gubernatorial campaign. (The Seattle Times typically does not name victims of sexual abuse.) . . .

In a statement this week, Culp contended he’d been vindicated, citing a court order that formally dismissed him as an individual defendant in the lawsuit in mid-November. He criticized the media for reporting on the case and political rivals for running ads highlighting it during his congressional run this year. Culp did not make it out of the August primary in the 4th Congressional District.

“After years of my name being dragged through the mud, I’m happy to have this cleared up and signed by a judge. Now, where do I go to get my reputation back?” Culp said . . . .

Bill Gilbert, the attorney for the plaintiff, said the $275,000 settlement was reached after mediation in the long-running case, and disputed Culp’s characterization.

“Mr. Culp was not vindicated whatsoever by this dismissal,” Gilbert said in an email. . . . "Making a public statement that he was somehow vindicated by the resolution of the case is disingenuous, at best.” . . .

Culp has repeatedly downplayed his role in the sexual-abuse investigation and previously said that Moore’s guilty plea doesn’t mean he’d actually committed a crime. . . .

During their questioning of the girl, Culp asked her what should happen to her stepfather. She replied “he needs to be punished” for “a long time,” according to a transcript of the Nov. 21, 2013, interview.

Culp followed up: “Do you think that somebody that does something like this deserves a second chance?”

Do you think that was an intentional double meaning?

Or is Culp just an idiot as well as an arsehole?

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

Is it time to Fear for our Jobs?

"The striking thing about the reaction to ChatGPT is not just the number of people who are blown away by it, but who they are. These are not people who get excited by every shiny new thing. Clearly something big is happening."

https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1598698665337561088?s=20&t=P_PSeuqT9YKPYXTZPr0FGg


"ChatGPT was dropped on us just bit over 24 hours. It's like you wake up to the news of first nuclear explosion and you don't know yet what to think about it but you know world will never be the same again. Here some interesting snapshots of this "explosion"🧵:"

https://twitter.com/sytelus/status/1598523136177508356?s=20&t=P_PSeuqT9YKPYXTZPr0FGg

It's no what.three.words.

What unnerves me is that this isn't necessarily The Next Big Thing. This is GPT3.5 and we are still waiting for GPT4 early next year - supposedly

We are on the cusp of AGI

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

kyf_100 said:

Leon said:

kinabalu said:

"Doth wait, a siren's call to carnal bliss"

Wow. Your computer is certainly in a ruminative mood.

That line is perfect iambic pentameter

da-DA-da-DA-da-DA-da-DA-da-DUH

Phenomenal. 5 seconds

so how do you feel now that AI is coming for *your* job?

Kinda glad that I won't really need a career in 20 years!

And sad for all the writers, artists, painters, creators - and coders, lawyers, teachers, bankers, for that matter - who are about to see their professions annihilated, as they know them

In which case they will all vote for parties offering a universal basic income funded by a robot tax on corporations and organisations that use AI, making UBI inevitable

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

Is it time to Fear for our Jobs?

"The striking thing about the reaction to ChatGPT is not just the number of people who are blown away by it, but who they are. These are not people who get excited by every shiny new thing. Clearly something big is happening."

https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1598698665337561088?s=20&t=P_PSeuqT9YKPYXTZPr0FGg


"ChatGPT was dropped on us just bit over 24 hours. It's like you wake up to the news of first nuclear explosion and you don't know yet what to think about it but you know world will never be the same again. Here some interesting snapshots of this "explosion"🧵:"

https://twitter.com/sytelus/status/1598523136177508356?s=20&t=P_PSeuqT9YKPYXTZPr0FGg

It's no what.three.words.

What unnerves me is that this isn't necessarily The Next Big Thing. This is GPT3.5 and we are still waiting for GPT4 early next year - supposedly

We are on the cusp of AGI

We are not on the cusp of AGI. That's not what this is.

But you can create something remarkably impressive with simply enough processing power, a large enough training dataset and some good algorithms.

We are on the cusp of AGI because what is about to come will look exactly like AGI and we won't therefore know if it is AGI or not, because we don't really know what sentience/intelligence are

We will only know that what we are encountering is 100% convincing as AGI, it will sail past the Turing Test

= AGI, to all intents and purposes

Pro_Rata said:

Pro_Rata said:

Pro_Rata said:

Group H current balance:

Portugal qualified
Uruguay 1 SK goal from falling to qualify
SK 1 SK goal from qualification
Ghana 2 Ghana goals from qualification.

SK 1 Portugal or Uruguay goal from elimination
Uruguay 1 Portugal or Uruguay goal from qualification
Ghana 2 Ghana goals from qualification

SK win

SK 1 Uruguay goal from elimination
Uru 1 Uru goal from qualification
Ghana 2 Ghana goals from qualification

Scott_xP said:

We’ve just received a tip off that @michaelgove will be making an important statement to his local association this evening. Perhaps he will be joining @sajidjavid in the departure lounge?
https://twitter.com/SurreyHeathLDs/status/1598658653493542915

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

Is it time to Fear for our Jobs?

"The striking thing about the reaction to ChatGPT is not just the number of people who are blown away by it, but who they are. These are not people who get excited by every shiny new thing. Clearly something big is happening."

https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1598698665337561088?s=20&t=P_PSeuqT9YKPYXTZPr0FGg


"ChatGPT was dropped on us just bit over 24 hours. It's like you wake up to the news of first nuclear explosion and you don't know yet what to think about it but you know world will never be the same again. Here some interesting snapshots of this "explosion"🧵:"

https://twitter.com/sytelus/status/1598523136177508356?s=20&t=P_PSeuqT9YKPYXTZPr0FGg

It's no what.three.words.

What unnerves me is that this isn't necessarily The Next Big Thing. This is GPT3.5 and we are still waiting for GPT4 early next year - supposedly

We are on the cusp of AGI

We are not on the cusp of AGI. That's not what this is.

But you can create something remarkably impressive with simply enough processing power, a large enough training dataset and some good algorithms.

We are on the cusp of AGI because what is about to come will look exactly like AGI and we won't therefore know if it is AGI or not, because we don't really know what sentience/intelligence are

We will only know that what we are encountering is 100% convincing as AGI, it will sail past the Turing Test

= AGI, to all intents and purposes

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

Is it time to Fear for our Jobs?

"The striking thing about the reaction to ChatGPT is not just the number of people who are blown away by it, but who they are. These are not people who get excited by every shiny new thing. Clearly something big is happening."

https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1598698665337561088?s=20&t=P_PSeuqT9YKPYXTZPr0FGg


"ChatGPT was dropped on us just bit over 24 hours. It's like you wake up to the news of first nuclear explosion and you don't know yet what to think about it but you know world will never be the same again. Here some interesting snapshots of this "explosion"🧵:"

https://twitter.com/sytelus/status/1598523136177508356?s=20&t=P_PSeuqT9YKPYXTZPr0FGg

It's no what.three.words.

What unnerves me is that this isn't necessarily The Next Big Thing. This is GPT3.5 and we are still waiting for GPT4 early next year - supposedly

We are on the cusp of AGI

We are not on the cusp of AGI. That's not what this is.

But you can create something remarkably impressive with simply enough processing power, a large enough training dataset and some good algorithms.

We are on the cusp of AGI because what is about to come will look exactly like AGI and we won't therefore know if it is AGI or not, because we don't really know what sentience/intelligence are

We will only know that what we are encountering is 100% convincing as AGI, it will sail past the Turing Test

= AGI, to all intents and purposes

The distinction is really important because it affects what it is capable of and how it is biased.

The training data set is the key thing with this. If there are errors, or biases, in the training dataset, because it isn't AGI, it won't be able to identify or correct those, and so will propagate them.

It's really important that we are aware of that distinction, because otherwise we would be too trusting of what it creates.

Chris said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

Is it time to Fear for our Jobs?

"The striking thing about the reaction to ChatGPT is not just the number of people who are blown away by it, but who they are. These are not people who get excited by every shiny new thing. Clearly something big is happening."

https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1598698665337561088?s=20&t=P_PSeuqT9YKPYXTZPr0FGg


"ChatGPT was dropped on us just bit over 24 hours. It's like you wake up to the news of first nuclear explosion and you don't know yet what to think about it but you know world will never be the same again. Here some interesting snapshots of this "explosion"🧵:"

https://twitter.com/sytelus/status/1598523136177508356?s=20&t=P_PSeuqT9YKPYXTZPr0FGg

It's no what.three.words.

What unnerves me is that this isn't necessarily The Next Big Thing. This is GPT3.5 and we are still waiting for GPT4 early next year - supposedly

We are on the cusp of AGI

We are not on the cusp of AGI. That's not what this is.

But you can create something remarkably impressive with simply enough processing power, a large enough training dataset and some good algorithms.

We are on the cusp of AGI because what is about to come will look exactly like AGI and we won't therefore know if it is AGI or not, because we don't really know what sentience/intelligence are

We will only know that what we are encountering is 100% convincing as AGI, it will sail past the Turing Test

= AGI, to all intents and purposes

The distinction is really important because it affects what it is capable of and how it is biased.

The training data set is the key thing with this. If there are errors, or biases, in the training dataset, because it isn't AGI, it won't be able to identify or correct those, and so will propagate them.

As if humans don't propagate errors that they learn from their training data!

Roger said:

Must be one of the best world cups ever. It's great when the underdogs do well.

And women have never featured as much both commentating and even reffing. Who'd have thought!

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

Is it time to Fear for our Jobs?

"The striking thing about the reaction to ChatGPT is not just the number of people who are blown away by it, but who they are. These are not people who get excited by every shiny new thing. Clearly something big is happening."

https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1598698665337561088?s=20&t=P_PSeuqT9YKPYXTZPr0FGg


"ChatGPT was dropped on us just bit over 24 hours. It's like you wake up to the news of first nuclear explosion and you don't know yet what to think about it but you know world will never be the same again. Here some interesting snapshots of this "explosion"🧵:"

https://twitter.com/sytelus/status/1598523136177508356?s=20&t=P_PSeuqT9YKPYXTZPr0FGg

It's no what.three.words.

What unnerves me is that this isn't necessarily The Next Big Thing. This is GPT3.5 and we are still waiting for GPT4 early next year - supposedly

We are on the cusp of AGI

We are not on the cusp of AGI. That's not what this is.

But you can create something remarkably impressive with simply enough processing power, a large enough training dataset and some good algorithms.

We are on the cusp of AGI because what is about to come will look exactly like AGI and we won't therefore know if it is AGI or not, because we don't really know what sentience/intelligence are

We will only know that what we are encountering is 100% convincing as AGI, it will sail past the Turing Test

= AGI, to all intents and purposes

The distinction is really important because it affects what it is capable of and how it is biased.

The training data set is the key thing with this. If there are errors, or biases, in the training dataset, because it isn't AGI, it won't be able to identify or correct those, and so will propagate them.

It's really important that we are aware of that distinction, because otherwise we would be too trusting of what it creates.

Richard_Tyndall said:

CarlottaVance said:

This is what happens when the dam breaks. The people who were happy to be associated with you when that made them look good vanish. Staff and trustees start trying to save themselves, shopping colleagues to the authorities to try to save themselves. It’ll be ugly but essential

https://twitter.com/HJoyceGender/status/1598721333495332864

Is that Mermaids or the Tory party you are refering to?

MoonRabbit said:

OllyT said:

MoonRabbit said:

Scott_xP said:

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 49% (-1)
CON: 26% (-1)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-)
REF: 5% (NA)

via @techneUK, 30 Nov - 01 Dec
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/11/britainpredicts

No change with Techne MOE.

Scott_xP said:

NEW.

25 point lead for Labour ...

Labour 46% (+2)
Conservatives 21% (-3)
Greens 9% (+1)
Lib Dems 7% (-1)
Reform 7% (+2)
SNP 5% (-)

@PeoplePolling Nov 30

There’s an Opinium due tomorow. We’ll see if this little backward step in Tory % from Yougov and people polling is reflected in the coming polls.

I think not, I thinking yougov and people pollin are outliers, Opinium up to 29% Redfield and Savanta up one too when they next report. Delta has shown leap for the Tories into the thirties this week.

As I predicted spot on, just looking at gap between the parties is meaningless, just look at how the Labour position is continuing to erode away now the Tory adults are in charge. Watching the Tory share for their recovery is the game in town.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election > LABOUR VOTE SHARE ON THE SLIDE DEFYING THE NARRATIVES

I thought the Tories were meant to be up to at least 31% by now, not sliding back to 21%.

You posted that, but don’t believe yourself they are on 21 do you? You picked the lowest % and expect us treat that that as serious point you are making? It’s the same week delta had them up 5 to 30. That’s exactly my point. The pollsters are all over the place for Tory share, with Labour dropping away too it proves the Tory lack of movement or back steps are clearly not switchers to Labour, it’s the pollsters methodology not being able to handle so many Tories going shy at the moment.

dixiedean said:

More Asian teams than S American in the last 16.

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

More Asian teams than S American in the last 16.

Awfully convenient for FIFA, who must be hoping to use this World Cup to expand football into Asia - the huge, lucrative Japanese and Korean markets especially

Getting football to supplant baseball in Japan would be an enormous prize. They must be getting close with drama like this. Baseball cannot provide the global excitement of football, nor the glamour of the European leagues

Bit tough on Germany and Uruguay but hey ho

Scott_xP said:

We’ve just received a tip off that @michaelgove will be making an important statement to his local association this evening. Perhaps he will be joining @sajidjavid in the departure lounge?
https://twitter.com/SurreyHeathLDs/status/1598658653493542915

CarlottaVance said:

This is what happens when the dam breaks. The people who were happy to be associated with you when that made them look good vanish. Staff and trustees start trying to save themselves, shopping colleagues to the authorities to try to save themselves. It’ll be ugly but essential

https://twitter.com/HJoyceGender/status/1598721333495332864

kyf_100 said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

Is it time to Fear for our Jobs?

"The striking thing about the reaction to ChatGPT is not just the number of people who are blown away by it, but who they are. These are not people who get excited by every shiny new thing. Clearly something big is happening."

https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1598698665337561088?s=20&t=P_PSeuqT9YKPYXTZPr0FGg


"ChatGPT was dropped on us just bit over 24 hours. It's like you wake up to the news of first nuclear explosion and you don't know yet what to think about it but you know world will never be the same again. Here some interesting snapshots of this "explosion"🧵:"

https://twitter.com/sytelus/status/1598523136177508356?s=20&t=P_PSeuqT9YKPYXTZPr0FGg

It's no what.three.words.

What unnerves me is that this isn't necessarily The Next Big Thing. This is GPT3.5 and we are still waiting for GPT4 early next year - supposedly

We are on the cusp of AGI

We are not on the cusp of AGI. That's not what this is.

But you can create something remarkably impressive with simply enough processing power, a large enough training dataset and some good algorithms.

We are on the cusp of AGI because what is about to come will look exactly like AGI and we won't therefore know if it is AGI or not, because we don't really know what sentience/intelligence are

We will only know that what we are encountering is 100% convincing as AGI, it will sail past the Turing Test

= AGI, to all intents and purposes

The distinction is really important because it affects what it is capable of and how it is biased.

The training data set is the key thing with this. If there are errors, or biases, in the training dataset, because it isn't AGI, it won't be able to identify or correct those, and so will propagate them.

It's really important that we are aware of that distinction, because otherwise we would be too trusting of what it creates.

As I pointed out downthread, the new chatbot's biggest limitation is its inability to analyse anything critically - it just regurgitates. Tell it that a woman can have a penis, and that's what it believes. Because that's what it's been told. (I have asked it). Ask it to question that orthodoxy and it's all out of answers.

Chris said:

kyf_100 said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

Is it time to Fear for our Jobs?

"The striking thing about the reaction to ChatGPT is not just the number of people who are blown away by it, but who they are. These are not people who get excited by every shiny new thing. Clearly something big is happening."

https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1598698665337561088?s=20&t=P_PSeuqT9YKPYXTZPr0FGg


"ChatGPT was dropped on us just bit over 24 hours. It's like you wake up to the news of first nuclear explosion and you don't know yet what to think about it but you know world will never be the same again. Here some interesting snapshots of this "explosion"🧵:"

https://twitter.com/sytelus/status/1598523136177508356?s=20&t=P_PSeuqT9YKPYXTZPr0FGg

It's no what.three.words.

What unnerves me is that this isn't necessarily The Next Big Thing. This is GPT3.5 and we are still waiting for GPT4 early next year - supposedly

We are on the cusp of AGI

We are not on the cusp of AGI. That's not what this is.

But you can create something remarkably impressive with simply enough processing power, a large enough training dataset and some good algorithms.

We are on the cusp of AGI because what is about to come will look exactly like AGI and we won't therefore know if it is AGI or not, because we don't really know what sentience/intelligence are

We will only know that what we are encountering is 100% convincing as AGI, it will sail past the Turing Test

= AGI, to all intents and purposes

The distinction is really important because it affects what it is capable of and how it is biased.

The training data set is the key thing with this. If there are errors, or biases, in the training dataset, because it isn't AGI, it won't be able to identify or correct those, and so will propagate them.

It's really important that we are aware of that distinction, because otherwise we would be too trusting of what it creates.

As I pointed out downthread, the new chatbot's biggest limitation is its inability to analyse anything critically - it just regurgitates. Tell it that a woman can have a penis, and that's what it believes. Because that's what it's been told. (I have asked it). Ask it to question that orthodoxy and it's all out of answers.

You're telling me it's got to the level of a typical Donald Trump supporter already?

FrankBooth said:

Leon said:

FrankBooth said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

More Asian teams than S American in the last 16.

Awfully convenient for FIFA, who must be hoping to use this World Cup to expand football into Asia - the huge, lucrative Japanese and Korean markets especially

Getting football to supplant baseball in Japan would be an enormous prize. They must be getting close with drama like this. Baseball cannot provide the global excitement of football, nor the glamour of the European leagues

Bit tough on Germany and Uruguay but hey ho

Hope you aren't suggesting something about the referring?

Two crucial VAR decisions have gone in favour of Korea and Japan, both extremely questionable

It may just be the rub of the green, so be it. I'm delighted for both Korea and Japan and it is great that new nations are joining the world of football. It is the undisputed world game, the World Cup should be a global party - and it is. Even in Qatar!

Aren't goal-line decisions determined by the technology?

Scott_xP said:

Great line in this very good piece:

As a former Downing Street adviser puts it: “There might not be much in it between Rishi and Starmer, but then voters look over their shoulders at who heads a rabble of mad bastards.”

https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1598646848566317061

kyf_100 said:

Chris said:

kyf_100 said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

Is it time to Fear for our Jobs?

"The striking thing about the reaction to ChatGPT is not just the number of people who are blown away by it, but who they are. These are not people who get excited by every shiny new thing. Clearly something big is happening."

https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1598698665337561088?s=20&t=P_PSeuqT9YKPYXTZPr0FGg


"ChatGPT was dropped on us just bit over 24 hours. It's like you wake up to the news of first nuclear explosion and you don't know yet what to think about it but you know world will never be the same again. Here some interesting snapshots of this "explosion"🧵:"

https://twitter.com/sytelus/status/1598523136177508356?s=20&t=P_PSeuqT9YKPYXTZPr0FGg

It's no what.three.words.

What unnerves me is that this isn't necessarily The Next Big Thing. This is GPT3.5 and we are still waiting for GPT4 early next year - supposedly

We are on the cusp of AGI

We are not on the cusp of AGI. That's not what this is.

But you can create something remarkably impressive with simply enough processing power, a large enough training dataset and some good algorithms.

We are on the cusp of AGI because what is about to come will look exactly like AGI and we won't therefore know if it is AGI or not, because we don't really know what sentience/intelligence are

We will only know that what we are encountering is 100% convincing as AGI, it will sail past the Turing Test

= AGI, to all intents and purposes

The distinction is really important because it affects what it is capable of and how it is biased.

The training data set is the key thing with this. If there are errors, or biases, in the training dataset, because it isn't AGI, it won't be able to identify or correct those, and so will propagate them.

It's really important that we are aware of that distinction, because otherwise we would be too trusting of what it creates.

As I pointed out downthread, the new chatbot's biggest limitation is its inability to analyse anything critically - it just regurgitates. Tell it that a woman can have a penis, and that's what it believes. Because that's what it's been told. (I have asked it). Ask it to question that orthodoxy and it's all out of answers.

You're telling me it's got to the level of a typical Donald Trump supporter already?

Interestingly, if you prompt it differently (I'm learning that promptcraft matters in GPT as much as it does in DALLE et al), it comes out as a staunch TERF.

In one instance I asked it if trans women are real women (definitive yes), then I asked it separately if women have penises (no), then finally "if a woman cannot have a penis, how are trans women real women?" to which it took an age to reply "an error has occured, if it persists, please contact us through our help center..."

I think I broke the poor thing's brain.

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

The sad fact is that most of the work that most people do doesn't require much intelligence to do. So algorithms that are a long way from AGI can replace humans for that work all the same.

I very much doubt that you could convincingly define AGI in a way that isn't "basically able to what humans do"

But if you can, knock yourself out

Most people but not all.

It's the bits that it won't be able to do that are the most interesting, when it comes to intelligence.

Chris said:

kyf_100 said:

Chris said:

kyf_100 said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

Is it time to Fear for our Jobs?

"The striking thing about the reaction to ChatGPT is not just the number of people who are blown away by it, but who they are. These are not people who get excited by every shiny new thing. Clearly something big is happening."

https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1598698665337561088?s=20&t=P_PSeuqT9YKPYXTZPr0FGg


"ChatGPT was dropped on us just bit over 24 hours. It's like you wake up to the news of first nuclear explosion and you don't know yet what to think about it but you know world will never be the same again. Here some interesting snapshots of this "explosion"🧵:"

https://twitter.com/sytelus/status/1598523136177508356?s=20&t=P_PSeuqT9YKPYXTZPr0FGg

It's no what.three.words.

What unnerves me is that this isn't necessarily The Next Big Thing. This is GPT3.5 and we are still waiting for GPT4 early next year - supposedly

We are on the cusp of AGI

We are not on the cusp of AGI. That's not what this is.

But you can create something remarkably impressive with simply enough processing power, a large enough training dataset and some good algorithms.

We are on the cusp of AGI because what is about to come will look exactly like AGI and we won't therefore know if it is AGI or not, because we don't really know what sentience/intelligence are

We will only know that what we are encountering is 100% convincing as AGI, it will sail past the Turing Test

= AGI, to all intents and purposes

The distinction is really important because it affects what it is capable of and how it is biased.

The training data set is the key thing with this. If there are errors, or biases, in the training dataset, because it isn't AGI, it won't be able to identify or correct those, and so will propagate them.

It's really important that we are aware of that distinction, because otherwise we would be too trusting of what it creates.

As I pointed out downthread, the new chatbot's biggest limitation is its inability to analyse anything critically - it just regurgitates. Tell it that a woman can have a penis, and that's what it believes. Because that's what it's been told. (I have asked it). Ask it to question that orthodoxy and it's all out of answers.

You're telling me it's got to the level of a typical Donald Trump supporter already?

Interestingly, if you prompt it differently (I'm learning that promptcraft matters in GPT as much as it does in DALLE et al), it comes out as a staunch TERF.

In one instance I asked it if trans women are real women (definitive yes), then I asked it separately if women have penises (no), then finally "if a woman cannot have a penis, how are trans women real women?" to which it took an age to reply "an error has occured, if it persists, please contact us through our help center..."

I think I broke the poor thing's brain.

It sounds like a definite failure of the Turing test.

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

The sad fact is that most of the work that most people do doesn't require much intelligence to do. So algorithms that are a long way from AGI can replace humans for that work all the same.

I very much doubt that you could convincingly define AGI in a way that isn't "basically able to what humans do"

But if you can, knock yourself out

Most people but not all.

It's the bits that it won't be able to do that are the most interesting, when it comes to intelligence.

So, you can't define AGI in a way which isn't "basically able to do what humans do"

GPT4 or 7 or whatever will "basically able to do what humans do", and then some. So it will be AGI

stodge said:

Roger said:

Must be one of the best world cups ever. It's great when the underdogs do well.

And women have never featured as much both commentating and even reffing. Who'd have thought!

It's also emphasised how much it's now a global game and no longer dominated by Europe and Latin America.

dixiedean said:

This is the last World Cup with four team groups.
So there'll be no more of this drama planned.
Thanks FIFA.

Chris said:

kyf_100 said:

Chris said:

kyf_100 said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

LostPassword said:

Leon said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Leon said:

Is it time to Fear for our Jobs?

"The striking thing about the reaction to ChatGPT is not just the number of people who are blown away by it, but who they are. These are not people who get excited by every shiny new thing. Clearly something big is happening."

https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1598698665337561088?s=20&t=P_PSeuqT9YKPYXTZPr0FGg


"ChatGPT was dropped on us just bit over 24 hours. It's like you wake up to the news of first nuclear explosion and you don't know yet what to think about it but you know world will never be the same again. Here some interesting snapshots of this "explosion"🧵:"

https://twitter.com/sytelus/status/1598523136177508356?s=20&t=P_PSeuqT9YKPYXTZPr0FGg

It's no what.three.words.

What unnerves me is that this isn't necessarily The Next Big Thing. This is GPT3.5 and we are still waiting for GPT4 early next year - supposedly

We are on the cusp of AGI

We are not on the cusp of AGI. That's not what this is.

But you can create something remarkably impressive with simply enough processing power, a large enough training dataset and some good algorithms.

We are on the cusp of AGI because what is about to come will look exactly like AGI and we won't therefore know if it is AGI or not, because we don't really know what sentience/intelligence are

We will only know that what we are encountering is 100% convincing as AGI, it will sail past the Turing Test

= AGI, to all intents and purposes

The distinction is really important because it affects what it is capable of and how it is biased.

The training data set is the key thing with this. If there are errors, or biases, in the training dataset, because it isn't AGI, it won't be able to identify or correct those, and so will propagate them.

It's really important that we are aware of that distinction, because otherwise we would be too trusting of what it creates.

As I pointed out downthread, the new chatbot's biggest limitation is its inability to analyse anything critically - it just regurgitates. Tell it that a woman can have a penis, and that's what it believes. Because that's what it's been told. (I have asked it). Ask it to question that orthodoxy and it's all out of answers.

You're telling me it's got to the level of a typical Donald Trump supporter already?

Interestingly, if you prompt it differently (I'm learning that promptcraft matters in GPT as much as it does in DALLE et al), it comes out as a staunch TERF.

In one instance I asked it if trans women are real women (definitive yes), then I asked it separately if women have penises (no), then finally "if a woman cannot have a penis, how are trans women real women?" to which it took an age to reply "an error has occured, if it persists, please contact us through our help center..."

I think I broke the poor thing's brain.

It sounds like a definite failure of the Turing test.