Categories
Sajd Javid – the latest CON MP to announce that he’s going – politicalbetting.com
Sajd Javid – the latest CON MP to announce that he’s going – politicalbetting.com
The biggest Tory figure so far to announce that he's quitting https://t.co/uZCPu8pPSe
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
It's a strange image.
https://www.theipsa.org.uk/freedom-of-information/cas-156839
If there's a free for all in speech, then that means everyone can speak, including those unhappy and publicly willing to go on the record to express their thoughts as to why.
I believe in free speech. I also believe that speech has consequences. If you say something, and it bites you back, then that's not your freedom being taken away, that is a consequence of your own actions.
A nationwide repeat of Thursday's by-election would deliver the worst Tory defeat since 1900, Electoral Calculus estimates
By
Christopher Hope,
ASSOCIATE EDITOR (POLITICS)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/02/labour-heading-super-landslide-general-election-victory-chester/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/02/rishi-sunak-chester-election-results-labour-keir-starmer/
But then, as noted on the previous thread, whilst he's only 52, if Labour win big in 2024 then his route back to frontline politics might never happen.
I wonder how many of Thatcher's rivals in 1975 thought they wouldn't bother running (or even voting against her) thinking that she'd only be in for a few years before they could oust her and their chance would come again. In the end, it was someone who wasn't even an MP in 1975 who would replace her as leader some 15 years later.
Javid might be thinking the same. The next chance he gets could be in the 2030s, and he can't be bothered waiting that long for frontline politics again.
This is far, far, worse than 1997.
You are being rude
He/She should shut up, for WrongThink
At the moment, they are too busy trying to sign trade deals All Over The World, and not enough making sure that public services like the Last Train To London are working.
I can understand on a personal level why people like Javid decide not to hang around for a long stint in opposition, but it's not a good sign for our politics. The Tories risk being left only with the ideological fruitcakes, and I don't think we really want to be attracting the sort of people who don't see the point of being "only" a backbench MP in the first place.
Opposition backbench MPs should be able to achieve useful things. If they can't then it's a sign that the party machines, and the executive generally, are too strong.
As to the VAT on school fees thing. Less than 2% of voters have children at private schools (According to ONS, ~6.5% of kids are at private schools; on average there are 1.4 kids-per-family, and 40% of families have school-age kids). Of that 2% a good many will be solid Tories.
So this feels like exactly the sort of policy to float around to get the blood up without having any material impact one way or the other. The calculation must be that most policy will be pure mogadon to avoid scaring the voters and this is a comparatively safe piece of red meat to throw to the believers.
My pile of unread books gets taller and taller.
Javid's done his time in the Cabinet. By the time the Tories are next ready for office, they'll have some fresh blood and the [far fewer] seats they'll have in the Commons next time shouldn't be all filled by what are frankly political bed blockers.
In the past, I believe this has led to some eccentric moves to hopeless seats just in order to benefit (although parties strongly discourage it).
But it may not be enough to encourage people to stand rather than retire in the face of very likely defeat. Firstly, however critical we are of some MPs, most genuinely believe in their party and what they are doing and, if they decide not to go again would genuinely rather a younger person gave it a bloody good try than go through the motions themselves. Secondly, standing again is an enormous faff and reduces your ability to pursue other job opportunities (it's not impossible to say "I'll probably be at a loose end after the election" if you're standing again, but it is harder to market yourself). Thirdly, politicians don't like losing and, if you retire instead, you get to say, "of course, I'd probably have hung on with my massive personal vote, but there you are, and it's terribly sad for young Fred who I thought was a jolly good candidate" to anyone who'll listen. If you're beaten, history records that your career ended in defeat.
There is no earthly reason why parents who buy houses near good state schools then buying in tutoring should have that subsidised, especially by those who cannot buy or rent such homes. They are buying privilege - and a capital asset to boot - quite as much as those using private schools. And, to my mind, being some of the biggest hypocrites around.
If a complete stranger telephoned you one day, and said 'I just want to say, I am never going to see or speak to you again.', you wouldn't care, because you have no emotion invested in that person. We choose whether to put emotional weight on what others think and say. It's not easy to choose not to be hurt, but it is possible.
The flight of my friends' kids to local private schools (and tutors), then back to the local state 6th form college for faking out their university applications is a poor show, in my opinion.
LAB: 49% (-1)
CON: 26% (-1)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-)
REF: 5% (NA)
via @techneUK, 30 Nov - 01 Dec
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/11/britainpredicts
Overnight TalkTV and the Sun also revealed that a senior Tory backbencher has been reported by colleagues to police over allegations of rape and sexual assault. A group of Tory MPs submitted a report to police about the MP relating to allegations spanning two years, which have been investigated by a law firm. The MP has not been suspended from the Tory whip or from party membership, despite reports that senior party figures knew about the allegations for about two years.
I think not, I thinking yougov and people pollin are outliers, Opinium up to 29% Redfield and Savanta up one too when they next report. Delta has shown leap for the Tories into the thirties this week.
As I predicted spot on, just looking at gap between the parties is meaningless, just look at how the Labour position is continuing to erode away now the Tory adults are in charge. Watching the Tory share for their recovery is the game in town.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election > LABOUR VOTE SHARE ON THE SLIDE DEFYING THE NARRATIVES
I suspect it's more that he expects the Tories nationally to lose quite badly. Being an opposition MP in your 50s, facing a large Government majority, is pretty bleak. It's a young person's game - energetic, ambitious 30-somethings cutting their teeth with a view to Government in their 40s and 50s.
The next Tory PM will, one suspects, be elected when Javid is in his 60s. Realistically, Javid isn't going to be first name on that PM's team sheet. So why hang about? He could earn a good sum in the private sector, and has a good shout for a peerage.
That's not to say he isn't a decent constituency MP, or doesn't quite enjoy it - I don't know how he's regarded in his area. But he's done it for over ten years, his time in the frontline is gone, and it's probably the right thing to do to pass the baton to a younger person at this stage.
I'm on the fence about VAT charging on fees, but those who want to ban private schools haven't thought it through.
Labour won’t touch tutoring because it provides an income for a growing number of students.
State schools don't (Or shouldn't) make a profit or a loss - the £30k you've 'lost' surely covers the cost of educating the pupil. And they tend to hardly be undersubscribed with all the talk of large class sizes.
Image a (lucky) couple have £250k in savings which they have resolved to provide exclusively for their child. There are two options:
1) pay for school fees. At the end of the child's A Levels the £250k has gone
2) send to a state school. At the end of the child's A Levels the £250k (plus growth) is still there and child can use it for, say, house deposit, car, pension contribution, ISA, emergencies, etc.
If you were the child, which option would you want your parent to choose?
I disagree with Mrs Stocky on this. She says 1) and I say 2).
And it seems a bit odd that our nuclear submariner training wasn't delivered in house (or with the US).
Elbit Systems UK Fired From £280 MILLION Worth Of Ministry of Defence Contracts
https://www.palestineaction.org/contract-loss/
Minister of State for Defence Procurement Alex Chalk has confirmed that Elbit Systems UK, a subsidiary of Israel’s largest arms company Elbit Systems LTD, has been forced out of lucrative contracts to deliver training for Dreadnought submarine and Royal Navy crews [1, 2]. The Ministry of Defence has ejected Elbit from a contract worth £160m to deliver Dreadnought crew training, and is ‘negotiating the departure’ of Elbit from a £123m contract for ‘Project Selborne’ Royal Navy training, stating that Elbit now falls short of ‘operational sovereignty standards for the UK’s highest priority capabilities’.
These submissions were made by Chalk in Parliament in responses to questions by Labour MPs Chris Evans, and Kevan Jones – both associated with the ‘Labour Friends of Israel’ group – and by Shadow Defence Secretary John Healey. Elbit’s removal from these contracts was not in the public domain until these questions were asked. Release of this information further damaged Elbit Systems’ plummeting share prices, which fell 10% over November 29th, and is down 18% through November, as the company posts third quarter losses [3].
The loss of these contracts is a huge blow for Elbit, with their attempts to gain MOD favour a major reason for their manufacturing presence in Britain. These contracts were initially awarded after Elbit’s deep involvement in procurement and training for the Israeli defence, across army, navy, and air forces. Not only are Elbit’s manufactured products described as “field-tested on Palestinians”, but their training and simulation contracts have been gained following their performances in Israel, including delivering the ‘Brigade and Battlegroup Mission Training Centre’...
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1598660308473634817
Also, unless the state school is the absolute worst one in the area chances are another child will be taking the place so no-one will be worse off.
So there is a grain of truth in what Simon says, albeit the "loss" is surely much less than £30k, and doesn't disappear but is instead a saving from general taxation that could be applied either to state schools or something else depending on political priorities.
Other noticeable change- RefUK do seem to be having a growth spurtette. The 2s and 3s are becoming 5s, 6s and 7s. What's driving that?
More seriously, I think there are sensible reasons to have concerns about this policy. The assisted places policy of the Blair government achieved essentially nothing socially, except to make these schools even more socially exclusive. I would actually prefer a total overhaul of the whole system to this tinkering, which I think is counter-productive gesture politics nonsense.
What worries more is how much of a New Labour approach in general it might presage from Starmer ; in the Blair era these sort of red meat, gestures and mood music were used to cover for a lack of genuine radicalism or new ideas in many other areas, a bit like the way John Prescott was offered up as a kind of mascot , to the left.
I will posit that this fannying around will not make Dreadnought any cheaper or arrive any quicker.
I get the point of your thought experiment, but I'm not really sure it casts all that much light on the issue. Yes, the question is whether the benefits of private education exceed the costs. But I think I was well aware of that before you unpacked it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katherine_(Seton_novel)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Darkness
This week, after a mini discussion with someone on PB, KJH I think, I thought i had better get around to reading some Stephen Hawking, so I downloaded a Brief History of Time. But it’s more a science fiction book than proper science book, so I have given up as it was wasting my time. To paraphrase Andy Williams, this is the most busiest time of the year.
I looked for the book The Cook of Castamar is based on, but it’s not in English. Yet. I had withdraw symptoms from being immersed in the series.
All those dreaming of largesse will be disabused of such notions, or the markets may re-enact the Truss situation. I suspect Starmer is not daft enough to go that far, though.
And if you opt for state education,it's not necessarily true that you have to pay to win the postcode lottery.
For example, the very large 6th form college which my children attended served a very large catchment area indeed, and provided excellent teaching.
The other mistake people make is to spend the money on private secondary school, when the best bang for your buck is to get them into great nursery and infant schools. That way they will be ahead when they get into junior school and teachers will shower them with attention anyway.
If you're going to spend 10-15 years on the Opposition benches, then retire just as the Tories are coming back into power vacating your seat to a newbie with no chance to get experience in Opposition, then how is that good for you, or your Party or the country?
You can use the next 10-15 years doing something else, while giving a colleague in the party an opportunity to start on the backbenches in Opposition and could potentially be the next Cameron or Osborne [your names may vary] who we've not heard of today but will be the leadership of the future.
A bit of searching parliamentary records indicates the story is essentially correct, though "sacked" is probably a bit of overreach.
(Alex Chalk, written answer)
The Ministry of Defence (MOD) regularly reviews its capability programmes. As the result of a recent review, MOD is in discussion with Elbit Systems UK about their departure from submarine training in the Project Selborne contract and has already agreed the company's departure from Dreadnought Crew Training contract. This has not happened because of any specific issues with Elbit Systems UK or any wrongdoing on their part but rather a result of applying revised operational sovereignty standards for the UK's highest priority capabilities. Elbit Systems UK remains an important and trusted partner across a range of other contracts in Defence.
Capita Business Services Ltd, as the Prime Contractor delivering Project Selborne, are responsible for ensuring its delivery. Any specific impact on the timetable for delivery of the Future Naval Training Programme will depend on the outcome of the negotiations which are currently underway with Elbit Systems UK regarding their involvement in Project Selborne, therefore I am unable to comment further at this time.
If it's being left with Capita, then our future submarine capability is probably somewhat fncked.
(or maybe your post was a joke?)
Quite frankly the most embarrassing Tory MPs are primarily those who were around in Thatcher/Major's days, rather than the ones who've reached Parliament in the last 12.5 years.
Next time the Tories reach office, then some of those who were around now will be the dinosaurs of the future.
I could well understand Javid looking around him and thinking "even if I stick around for next 10-15 years, do I then want to be thought of as Redwood is today?"
(Mykola Leontovych in 1914)
https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1598362573933613056
These narrow definitions of "success" (eg, 5 "good" GCSEs) goes a pretty long way towards explaining what's wrong with the UK education system, in my opinion.
I can never know for sure, of course, how option 2 would have panned out. But I'm fairly confident just in financial terms it was a better investment than the lump sum at 21. Possibly my sister would disagree from her own experience - not sure.
Schools are a long way from perfect, but the really hopeless schools, whether state or private, are massively rarer than they used to be. Even if school X is better than school Y, is it really £250k better?
(Another story- when we went on our middle aged gap years, Thing 1 and 2 ended up at one of The Worst Schools In The Area. It was the only one with places, because it was The Worst School In The Area. I was a governor there for a while, because they were desperate.
Anyway, the children did fine. Because most young people make about as much learning progress as they're going to make at most schools. That's especially true if the other bits of their development, like reading independently, are in place.)
A result like that suggests they are gonna get 15 years in the wilderness, 10 at best. Good candidates won't come forward for seats, activists will give up, even more MPs will drift away, so much talent at the top will be gone
It will be like an army losing all its officers, 70% of its troops, and seeing its ammo dumps, supply lines and HQ blown to bits
At some point a routed army cannot rebuild and fight back: it merely dissolves, and melts into the civilian population. We will see Tory MPs in jeans and hoodies in the local Nandos, pretending they never had anything to do with politics
This is a true concern. The Tories are on the precipice of a historic disaster that could finish them for good
It is still unlikely, but not entirely improbable