Can Sunak really win back CON to LAB switchers and retain power? – politicalbetting.com

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

ANOTHER great goal

England looking a bit like France in 2018? Or Spain in 2008?

OK, have to calm down

It's Iran. That ranking of 20th just shows how shit the rankings are not that we're smashing some incredible team.

I did tell myself to calm down

However let us enjoy the pleasure of a fine England performance, and excellent stuff from Bellingham, Saka et al

goallllll

And another

I'm as happy to throw shade on England football as anyone, but are we really carping about a 6-1 England win in a World Cup?

Well done the white guy. Grabbed a goal back.

Driver said:

That equals England's biggest ever win in a tournament finals.

Didn't England beat Panama 6-0 4 years ago? (Or 8?)

6-1 isn't bad.

barrykenna said:

HYUFD said:

barrykenna said:

HYUFD said:

Heathener said:

DavidL said:

So what would make a 1992 possible?

.

Nothing because this is nothing like 1992.

Stop making a false comparison please. It's misleading.

The truth is that this is psepholoically like 1997 but economically FAR WORSE.

Conservatives on here need to prepare for the Dark Night of the Soul.

Unlike 1997 though there will be no golden economic legacy for Starmer and Reeves so the economy will then be their problem

1997 was not exactly a golden economic legacy even though things had improved since the collapse of the Major Government's economic strategy at the the time of the Autumn 1992 ERM fiasco. Labour still inherited Budget and Balance of Payments deficits. Ted Heath enjoyed a better legacy from Labour in 1970.

Terrible balance of payments figures (a £31 million trade deficit) and rising inflation, a selective employment tax, unemployment at its highest level since 1940 and union indiscipline?

The Balance of Payments was in strong surplus at that time - notwithstanding a single month's deficit due to Jumbo Jets - far stronger than 1997.

It was still relatively low, certainly compared to 2010 and now.

Inflation was also lower in 1997 than 1970 and there was far less union militancy

Gerry Adams, Brendan Behan, Dana, Seamus Heaney, Roy Keane, your boys have taken a hell of a beating.

Cookie said:

Driver said:

That equals England's biggest ever win in a tournament finals.

Didn't England beat Panama 6-0 4 years ago? (Or 8?)

5-1 or 5-0 was my memory

Horrible fouling Iran

Anabobazina said:

Cookie said:

Driver said:

That equals England's biggest ever win in a tournament finals.

Didn't England beat Panama 6-0 4 years ago? (Or 8?)

5-1 or 5-0 was my memory

Thought it was 6-1.
Hence the equalled bit.

England's defence looks soberingly loose

Anabobazina said:

Cookie said:

Driver said:

That equals England's biggest ever win in a tournament finals.

Didn't England beat Panama 6-0 4 years ago? (Or 8?)

5-1 or 5-0 was my memory

Just checked: we were both wrong. 6-1.

AlistairM said:

Why's Phil Foden got a Z shaved into the side of his head?

If anyone has had a shit 2022, it is the letter Z.

It's going to need a shit-load of PR spend to get itself rehabilitated...

dixiedean said:

What a save from the world's number one.

"Pickford was beaten... That's a great save".

AlistairM said:

This is possibly the most encouraging video I have seen out of Russia lately. A panellist on Russian TV berates Solovyov for even suggesting that peaceful cities should be attacked.

Meanwhile in Russia: a rare moment of sanity on Russian state TV, when one panelist was finally fed up with Vladimir Solovyov's threats to wipe Kyiv or Kharkiv off the face of the earth.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1594529208650317824

Yes, he sounds great - a former Israeli politician, apparently? There's also criticism of the idea that it's a mere "operation" and not a war. I do get the impression that Russian TV is less monolithic than we think.

So what was the 10mins about?

WillG said:

Outrageous to give a penalty for that yet Maguire didn't get one in the first half.

Says the entire viewing public (ex. Iran).

Now to the edge of our seats for Netherlands v Senegal ?

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

I don't understand 10 mins of injury time.

Ref has 8 goals or over on the spread?

Looking at that penalty, yeah.

VAR in principle is a good idea, but the implementation is a farce.

Leon said:

It is worrying that Iran can score two...

However 6-2 is bloody good!

Iran scored 1, VAR scored 1.....

Driver said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

I don't understand 10 mins of injury time.

Ref has 8 goals or over on the spread?

Looking at that penalty, yeah.

VAR in principle is a good idea, but the implementation is a farce.

I thought referee's whim was a fundamental principle ?

On topic: There are paralllels in American politics. After their disastrous defeat in 1964, the Republicans won in 1968 and in a landslide in 1972. Going back further, the Democrats lost big in 1928, but won in 1932. And there have been big swings during campaigns, for example, duing the 1988 presidential election. (After the Democratic convention, Dukakis was ahead of Bush, 55-38
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_United_States_presidential_election#Polling )

But I think any analysis of contemporary British politics should begin with the recognition that 2019 was -- mostly -- a "negative landslide". The repudiation of Jeremy Corbyn was far more important in explaining the results than any positive thing Boris Johnson promised. Or the Conservative government had accomplished. (Wikipedia tells me that in the 2019 election, Labour lost 7.9 percent of the popular vote, whild Conservatives were gaining just 1.2 percent.)

So, Sunak could win your next general election, but he would need help from "events", and probably from Keir Starmer. (From afar, that seems unlikely. Though Starmer does not strike me as a gifted politician, he appears intelligent, and cautious enough so that I would be surprised if he made any serious blunders.)

FrancisUrquhart said:

If that's a penalty there are going to be one every half of the game in this world cup...

Told you ref had 8 goals or over on the spread.

You'd have expected him to give a penalty for the early rugby tackle in that case.

Perhaps he just had Iran scoring 2 or more.

Nigelb said:

Driver said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

I don't understand 10 mins of injury time.

Ref has 8 goals or over on the spread?

Looking at that penalty, yeah.

VAR in principle is a good idea, but the implementation is a farce.

I thought referee's whim was a fundamental principle ?

Referee's whim, yes. VAR's whim, no.

Cookie said:

turbotubbs said:

Cookie said:

Entirely off topic, but a 1427 coin from England has been discovered by a metal detectorist in Newfoundland, raising questions about pre-Columbian contact:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/a-centuries-old-coin-could-change-what-we-know-about-european-contact-with-north-america/ar-AA14kJrs?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=25513237e62344d88cfd6218a64c333b

Of course, it's entirely possible that post-Columbian emigrants took a very old coin with them.

Surely old news? Viking settlement is long established. There is a great book - "A voyage long and strange" on this subject.

But it can't be Vikings with a 1427 coin!
The implication in the article is that there was contact and trade with the eastern seaboard of America - especially Northumberland - half a century and more before Columbus. I don't think it's inconceivable - if you had discovered a new land whose seas teemed with fish, you wouldn't necessarily tell all and sundry about it.

I think its all bound up with Greenland etc. I suspect trading had been going on for centuries before Columbus.

Driver said:

Nigelb said:

Driver said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

I don't understand 10 mins of injury time.

Ref has 8 goals or over on the spread?

Looking at that penalty, yeah.

VAR in principle is a good idea, but the implementation is a farce.

I thought referee's whim was a fundamental principle ?

Referee's whim, yes. VAR's whim, no.

But the referee gets to decide if he wants to review.

WillG said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Gerry Adams, Brendan Behan, Dana, Seamus Heaney, Roy Keane, your boys have taken a hell of a beating.

"Up the RA" is disgusting celebration of terrorism. It really says a lot about how ugly Irish culture is that this is still widespread. Absolute contempt for the thousands of grieving relatives.

Is that not trending due to that Northern Irish woman(?) chanting it at Arlene Foster?

Jim_Miller said:

Off topic: In brief, how did Qatar get the World Cup?

Was bribery a part of it, and, if so, was it bribery that could be prosecuted had it occurred in the US, or the UK? Or was it disguised bribery, payments to "consultants", and the like?

Ask your DOJ.

U.S. Says FIFA Officials Were Bribed to Award World Cups to Russia and Qatar
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/sports/soccer/qatar-and-russia-bribery-world-cup-fifa.html

WillG said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Gerry Adams, Brendan Behan, Dana, Seamus Heaney, Roy Keane, your boys have taken a hell of a beating.

"Up the RA" is disgusting celebration of terrorism. It really says a lot about how ugly Irish culture is that this is still widespread. Absolute contempt for the thousands of grieving relatives.

Wait till you hear about sections of British culture and them singing about being up to their knees in Fenian blood.

Leon said:

It is worrying that Iran can score two...

However 6-2 is bloody good!

The penalty was an absurd decision and the Iranian goal was pretty good. I wouldn't worry.

Whatever they score, we'll score more. Now what team used to live by that motto?

By the way, I think the UK should complain to Iranian Mullahs. If the US and Israel are, respectively, a great Satan and a little Satan, surely the UK should at least be a "large Satan".

Credit where due.

There are videos on Twitter of Iranians allegedly cheering England goals

https://twitter.com/IranIntl/status/1594691052111384578?s=20&t=hPzaNh-e1AkSaa4ZBZIpuw

Jim_Miller said:

Off topic: In brief, how did Qatar get the World Cup?

Was bribery a part of it, and, if so, was it bribery that could be prosecuted had it occurred in the US, or the UK? Or was it disguised bribery, payments to "consultants", and the like?

Does 'a planeload of hookers' count as bribery?

Dr. @hans_kluge, @WHO Regional Director for Europe, paints grim picture of health situation in Ukraine as winter sets in: "This winter will be life threatening for millions of people in Ukraine."
"Ukraine's health system is facing its darkest days of the war so far."

...WHO has verified 703 “attacks on health” facilities in Ukraine by Russia, which he says are in breach of international humanitarian law.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1594710155588997122

Nigelb said:

An advertiser explains why they’re pausing their Twitter ads campaigns
https://twitter.com/petergyang/status/1594696056348049410

Gets it spot on. The idea that it's optics or virtue signalling is nonsense. It's not being run as a serious media organisation.

WillG said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Leon said:

It is worrying that Iran can score two...

However 6-2 is bloody good!

The penalty was an absurd decision and the Iranian goal was pretty good. I wouldn't worry.

Whatever they score, we'll score more. Now what team used to live by that motto?

The Iranian goal was a huge mistake by Maguire. He completely lost his man. I like Southgate a lot but I don't understand why Stones-White isn't our central defence.

I still don't really get Maguire either.

Jim_Miller said:

By the way, I think the UK should complain to Iranian Mullahs. If the US and Israel are, respectively, a great Satan and a little Satan, surely the UK should at least be a "large Satan".

Credit where due.

Goldilocks-zone Satan. We're just devilishly right.

Andy_JS said:

Netherlands 1.7
Senegal 6.4
Draw 3.8

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.197093922

While there is probably zero value in any WC market, Senegal do feel slightly undervalued here to me.

WillG said:

Cookie said:

WillG said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Gerry Adams, Brendan Behan, Dana, Seamus Heaney, Roy Keane, your boys have taken a hell of a beating.

"Up the RA" is disgusting celebration of terrorism. It really says a lot about how ugly Irish culture is that this is still widespread. Absolute contempt for the thousands of grieving relatives.

Is that not trending due to that Northern Irish woman(?) chanting it at Arlene Foster?

Perhaps, but it is not an isolated incident. The Ireland Women's team sang it after a victory. How is it possibly acceptable enough in Irish culture that nobody in the team intervened?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=n5bYFInAhbg

Yes, fair enough point.

Most likely scores according to Betfair punters.

1-0 Netherlands win: 6.2
2-0 Netherlands win: 7.8
1-1 draw: 8
2-1 Netherlands win: 10
0-0 draw: 10.5
3-0 Netherlands win: 15
1-0 Senegal win: 16.5

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.197093932

Cookie said:

Driver said:

Nigelb said:

Driver said:

Nigelb said:

Driver said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

I don't understand 10 mins of injury time.

Ref has 8 goals or over on the spread?

Looking at that penalty, yeah.

VAR in principle is a good idea, but the implementation is a farce.

I thought referee's whim was a fundamental principle ?

Referee's whim, yes. VAR's whim, no.

But the referee gets to decide if he wants to review.

No, that's not true - VAR tells the referee what to review. In theory, the ref has the option to stick with his original decision after reviewing the TV footage, but it's very rare.

The baffling thing is that almost every other professional sport (rugby, cricket, athletics, tennis) includes some analog of VAR, and manages to do it in a way which is uncontroversial and which improves the overall quality of decision making. Very late in the day, football comes in, acts as if it's coming up with a new idea and implements singularly uselessly.

Indeed. FIFA never wanted it, and it shows.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Ghedebrav said:

Andy_JS said:

Netherlands 1.7
Senegal 6.4
Draw 3.8

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.197093922

While there is probably zero value in any WC market, Senegal do feel slightly undervalued here to me.

Its interesting that unlike the past 3 WC nobody is really talking up African teams. Previous recent WC, one of the African nations has always been talked up & the its only a matter of time until one wins the WC. But that seems to have diminished, despite widespread participation of African players in the top leagues.

There's often a sense of great potential, especially from the populous West African nations which produce so many excellent players.

Senegal seem the best of the lot this time round - but since Ghana in 2010 no team has really lived up to the hype (I felt for Ivory Coast in 2006 though, an excellent squad in an extremely tough group).

Ghedebrav said:

Nigelb said:

An advertiser explains why they’re pausing their Twitter ads campaigns
https://twitter.com/petergyang/status/1594696056348049410

Gets it spot on. The idea that it's optics or virtue signalling is nonsense. It's not being run as a serious media organisation.

Some of it it optics. Brand safety is optics, as in the linked screenshots. No company wants their brand appearing in people’s feeds next to hate content or pornography because it’s radioactively toxic to their carefully cultivated brand identity.

Twitter has (for the moment) sacked most of the staff responsible for keeping this stuff off Twitter. Sure, there might be some future wonderful world where AI solves the problem for brand advertising on Twitter, but right now that doesn’t exist & brands are rightly concerned about appearing to be associated with any of this stuff, no matter how tangentially.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Ghedebrav said:

Andy_JS said:

Netherlands 1.7
Senegal 6.4
Draw 3.8

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.197093922

While there is probably zero value in any WC market, Senegal do feel slightly undervalued here to me.

Its interesting that unlike the past 3 WC nobody is really talking up African teams. Previous recent WC, one of the African nations has always been talked up & the its only a matter of time until one wins the WC. But that seems to have diminished, despite widespread participation of African players in the top leagues.

Yes, it is remarkable how, despite the spread of the game around the world, the World Cup (and Euros, to an extent) is still dominated by the traditional powers from Europe and S America. 20 years ago you expected this to change, but it hasn't, and looks like it never will

The only team that might break into the closed shop is perhaps the USA, but even there I'm not entirely sure

Driver said:

Cookie said:

Driver said:

Nigelb said:

Driver said:

Nigelb said:

Driver said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MaxPB said:

I don't understand 10 mins of injury time.

Ref has 8 goals or over on the spread?

Looking at that penalty, yeah.

VAR in principle is a good idea, but the implementation is a farce.

I thought referee's whim was a fundamental principle ?

Referee's whim, yes. VAR's whim, no.

But the referee gets to decide if he wants to review.

No, that's not true - VAR tells the referee what to review. In theory, the ref has the option to stick with his original decision after reviewing the TV footage, but it's very rare.

The baffling thing is that almost every other professional sport (rugby, cricket, athletics, tennis) includes some analog of VAR, and manages to do it in a way which is uncontroversial and which improves the overall quality of decision making. Very late in the day, football comes in, acts as if it's coming up with a new idea and implements singularly uselessly.

Indeed. FIFA never wanted it, and it shows.

And yet you sense PB could have a 30 minute meeting and make it work no problem. Cricket's umpires call is crucial. Umpires get some protection from it, and removes some of the false precision (needing to be hitting at least 50% of a stump means its pretty likely it would. The ridiculous off-side calls we see where a toe is offside (or whatever) are losing all credibility. VAR was brought in because of Thierry Henry and Frank Lampard - clear and obvious things that the ref and linesmen missed. It should never have been about marginal off sides.

turbotubbs said:

Ghedebrav said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

Leon said:

I'm as happy to throw shade on England football as anyone, but are we really carping about a 6-1 England win in a World Cup?

Nah, of course not. Really happy with the win and gives us huge confidence going into the more difficult matches in the group.

Huge contrast with other tournaments (e.g. 2010 - booed off after a 0-0). Takes some of the pressure off - one more win or two draws should be enough to get through. Win your first game and life always looks better,

That 0-0 with Algeria was one of the worst games I've ever seen. If memory serves, didn't a bird build a nest on one of the goalposts?

I really don't get the Southgate criticism. He's by some margin the most successful England manager after Sir Alf. And (the question nobody ever seems to answer) who would do a better job?

There is a lingering disappointment about the 2018 WC semi and the Euro's final last year. Both times we took the lead, both times we failed to go for the jugular and both times we lost because of it. I think we were unlucky not to get a second against Croatia, but against Italy it looked like we thought we could do an Italy on them and keep it to 1-0 for the 90.

We can know what could have happened if we had been a bit more attacking, but Southgate has built his success on defending well and hitting on the break. And its worked better than anything else since Robson in 1990 or Venables in 1996.

There is a severe failure amongst England fans to appreciate how much better Italy played in the second half in the final last year than in the first. And, no, it wasn't just because "we let them".