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Deltapoll from 2019 on having a passport and voting Leave – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,418
edited November 2022 in General
Deltapoll from 2019 on having a passport and voting Leave – politicalbetting.com

This from Joe Twyman three years ago is relevant to today's developments on the requirement for photo ID before you can vote https://t.co/4lW6vSKcnC

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Politico.com - Jayapal’s announcement: Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) said Friday she would run for another term as chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, opting against a bid for Democratic leadership.

    “As Chair of the CPC, I will put my energy toward ensuring Democrats are not only a critically important ‘opposition’ party to push back on draconian MAGA-Republican policies, but also a ‘proposition’ party, with a real vision that builds an even bigger movement to lift up poor people, working people, people of color, immigrants, LGBTQ+ people, and those who just need a leg up to thrive not just survive. That is what will help propel us to victory in 2024,” she wrote in a letter to her colleagues.

    Her decision: In an interview, Jayapal said she’d “seriously considered” a run for House Democratic leadership, but opted against it. Excitement about the incoming group of progressive lawmakers and the signals she received about the group’s growing influence over policy convinced her to make another run, potentially her second as the solo chair. (She’d served a previous term as the co-chair of the group.)

    SSI - Interpretation - Rep. Jayapal chickens out of leadership race, thank to her "contribution" to 2022 midterms.

    My guess is, my Congresswoman will be lucky to get herself re-elected CPC chair, after she left her progressive colleagues hanging out to dry, via untimely release of their "throw Putin a lifeline" letter just prior to Election Day 2022.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,084
    Third
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,708
    Well the power of PB because I've had a complete 180 in a single day - let's have voter ID!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    This had better be one hell of a persuasive piece to try to make this argument - definitely setting itself a tough target for an article.

    John Mearsheimer on Putin’s Ambitions After Nine Months of War
    The realist political scientist explains why Russia’s move to annex four Ukrainian provinces isn’t imperialism.


    https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/john-mearsheimer-on-putins-ambitions-after-nine-months-of-war
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,253
    FPT: kinabalu was arguing repeatedly that the British Empire was wicked. Which reminded me of polling* done more than a decade ago in both the US and the UK. In both nations, about half of the main party on the left believed their nation was a bad nation with some redeeming features, while almost all in the main party on the right thought their nation was a good nation with some faults.

    That was, I thought at the time, was one of the advantages the parties on the right had over the parties on the left.

    (*I'm sorry I can't be more precise, but thought the observation might be of interest, anyway. I haven't seen any recent polling on that question, but haven't looked for it, either.)
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,756
    These are the proposed IDs;

    Passport issued by the UK, any of the Channel Islands, the Isle of Man, a British Overseas Territory, an EEA state or a Commonwealth country
    Photographic driver’s licence issued by the UK, Channel Islands, the Isle of Man, or an EEA state (including provisional)
    European Economic Area (EEA) photographic ID Card
    UK Biometric Residence Permit
    An identity card bearing the Proof of Age Standards Scheme hologram (PASS card)*
    A Blue Badge
    Oyster 60+ Card
    A concessionary travel pass funded by HM Government or local authority**

    https://www.gravesham.gov.uk/elections-voting/voter-id-requirements

    more detailed:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/voter-identification-at-polling-stations-and-the-new-voter-card/protecting-the-integrity-of-our-elections-voter-identification-at-polling-stations-and-the-new-voter-card#annex-a-list-of-identity-documents-that-will-be-accepted

    It does amuse me that 60+ bus passes, freedom cards etc are acceptable but a young persons railcard is not.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423

    Tiny, insignificant numbers. The ID proposals will do far more to warp representation and election results than any of the identified voter fraud. But of course the calculation by the Tories is that it will warp it in their favour. Hence the proposals.
    I think this is the rub of it. The particular example of the oyster card was honestly not a good one, but the proposals still amount to the old chestnut about sledgehammers to crack nuts. Whether the party would actually benefit is somewhat secondary to whether they believed it would, and it is hard to imagine they would be pushed so hard on the basis of the extent of the identified problem.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,270

    These are the proposed IDs;

    Passport issued by the UK, any of the Channel Islands, the Isle of Man, a British Overseas Territory, an EEA state or a Commonwealth country
    Photographic driver’s licence issued by the UK, Channel Islands, the Isle of Man, or an EEA state (including provisional)
    European Economic Area (EEA) photographic ID Card
    UK Biometric Residence Permit
    An identity card bearing the Proof of Age Standards Scheme hologram (PASS card)*
    A Blue Badge
    Oyster 60+ Card
    A concessionary travel pass funded by HM Government or local authority**

    https://www.gravesham.gov.uk/elections-voting/voter-id-requirements

    more detailed:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/voter-identification-at-polling-stations-and-the-new-voter-card/protecting-the-integrity-of-our-elections-voter-identification-at-polling-stations-and-the-new-voter-card#annex-a-list-of-identity-documents-that-will-be-accepted

    It does amuse me that 60+ bus passes, freedom cards etc are acceptable but a young persons railcard is not.

    I don't find it amusing; I find it deeply disturbing.

    Is this not open to challenge in the courts? Age discrimination, if nothing else.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    'So much for: 'Accountability, integrity and professionalism' https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1593642826516111361
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560

    These are the proposed IDs;

    Passport issued by the UK, any of the Channel Islands, the Isle of Man, a British Overseas Territory, an EEA state or a Commonwealth country
    Photographic driver’s licence issued by the UK, Channel Islands, the Isle of Man, or an EEA state (including provisional)
    European Economic Area (EEA) photographic ID Card
    UK Biometric Residence Permit
    An identity card bearing the Proof of Age Standards Scheme hologram (PASS card)*
    A Blue Badge
    Oyster 60+ Card
    A concessionary travel pass funded by HM Government or local authority**

    https://www.gravesham.gov.uk/elections-voting/voter-id-requirements

    more detailed:
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/voter-identification-at-polling-stations-and-the-new-voter-card/protecting-the-integrity-of-our-elections-voter-identification-at-polling-stations-and-the-new-voter-card#annex-a-list-of-identity-documents-that-will-be-accepted

    It does amuse me that 60+ bus passes, freedom cards etc are acceptable but a young persons railcard is not.

    This was gone into in depth in the last thread. 60+ bus passes require a photo ID to be issued.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    edited November 2022

    I don't find it amusing; I find it deeply disturbing.

    Is this not open to challenge in the courts? Age discrimination, if nothing else.
    Where young people still have alternatives it doesn't seem likely, if the government can show (whether people agree or not) that there was a reason to justify why one form is more appropriate as formal ID for voting purposes than another. A court couldn't just substitute its own judgement on that, and on a process level it would be defensible.

    Though the whole thing shows why the whole affair is not worth the marginal gains, since it stirs up aggravation and mistrust in the voting system, and is definitely more confusing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,368
    Scott_xP said:
    Noooooo! How would we cope with losing such a dedicated, brilliant, selfless, intelligent, public serv...oh hold on, did you say Matt Hancock?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423

    What is the Tories' pitch to the electorate? “We got Brexit done" for the ever diminishing number of people for whom that's a positive. For the rest of us?...
    Keir Starmer supported Jeremy Corbyn. You know, that man who probably won't be able to stand as a Labour candidate under Keir.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    ydoethur said:

    Noooooo! How would we cope with losing such a dedicated, brilliant, selfless, intelligent, public serv...oh hold on, did you say Matt Hancock?
    Not the worst Hancock to serve in Parliament at any rate.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    So here’s our latest UK economic confidence data - or rather LACK of confidence https://twitter.com/benatipsos/status/1593647778261090304/photo/1
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,756
    Driver said:

    This was gone into in depth in the last thread. 60+ bus passes require a photo ID to be issued.
    So do railcards.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    Scott_xP said:

    Matt Hancock is to be blocked from standing as a Conservative MP at the next election if he fails to regain the Tory whip promptly, The Times understands.

    Conservative MPs must tell the party headquarters by December 5 whether they want to reapply to stand in their current seat or a new constituency created by boundary changes coming into effect for the next election.

    I have to admit I don't really get the level of antipathy Hancock provokes. Those saying he has masses of blood on his hands are overly harsh, and for the rest of it, well, he was a ministerial hypocrite who lost his job as a result, and a terrible husband, and seems to be a bit of a plonker. Seems disdain is more appropriate than the bile he gets, and the apparent eagerness on his own side to get him seems weird.
  • Speaking of passports and IDs . . . interesting obit in today's NYT ($)

    Virginia McLaurin, Who Spontaneously Danced With the Obamas, Dies

    . . . She was 113 by her own account, although she did not have a birth certificate. . . .

    . . . she believed it had been recorded in a family Bible as March 12, 1909 . . . According to . . . vital records department in South Carolina . . . she was born on March 12, 1916, but the letter also noted that no birth records for her had been found . . . .

    One of her passions was voting. In videos that she recorded ahead of the 2016 election, she encouraged young people to vote for a simple reason: It was the only way to be counted.

    "Please go vote," she said in one. "Go vote. If you don't do anything else - if you have to crawl - go to the poll and vote."

    Ms. McLaurin also used her public perch, to draw attention to her inability to obtain the government identification needed to board an airplane. Getting a nondriver photo ID would have required a birth certificate from South Carolina, but to get the certificate, she would have needed the ID.

    "I don't think I'll ever get that face card," Ms. McLauren [said] . . . two weeks after her visit to the White House. "I was birthed by a midwife and the birthday put in a Bible somewhere. I don't know if they even had birth certificates back then."

    Days [later] Mayor Muriel E. Bowser of Washington announced a new regulation that modified the requirements for getting the ID for people 70 and older. She also visited Ms. McLarin's home and stood by as she signed the paperwork.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    This is awesome

    Twitter still seems to be operating fine with...checks notes... 70% fewer employees in a week.

    If the rumors hold true it will be down 88% since acquisition by Monday.

    My bet is the site stays up.

    https://twitter.com/alexeheath/status/1593399683086327808

    @MichaelGuimarin It basically flies itself. https://twitter.com/eIonmusk_X/status/1593542016436436992/photo/1


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    Scott_xP said:

    This is awesome

    Twitter still seems to be operating fine with...checks notes... 70% fewer employees in a week.

    If the rumors hold true it will be down 88% since acquisition by Monday.

    My bet is the site stays up.

    https://twitter.com/alexeheath/status/1593399683086327808

    @MichaelGuimarin It basically flies itself. https://twitter.com/eIonmusk_X/status/1593542016436436992/photo/1


    Total coincidence it was a blimp with that particular symbol on it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    kinabalu said:

    Possibly. But why strain back into ancient times to find (in any case not very) equivalents rather than just looking at the essence of the quite recent, massive in scale, British Empire? Why not acknowledge its fundamental nature (malign) as a useful framing for discussing its complexities? This brings clarity. It's not a dumbing down.
    Sean_F said:

    Most 19th century abolitionists were racists, in our terms. A lot of them thought it would be a good thing if freed blacks were sent to Liberia and Sierra Leone. Scarcely any of them thought of blacks and whites enjoying equal rights. But, I don't think that taints their abolitionism.
    I agree with both these points, frankly.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560

    So do railcards.
    Oyster 18+ - the one that paranoid lefties are particularly complaining about for some reason - doesn't.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    Polls good for the Tory’s today - Mori is a Labour friendly pollster, so no great shakes for Labour from that one - pre budget but still useful as the next one will have all the post budget built in for comparison, Omnisis always report Tory share too low, and 28 from Delta in post budget poll is a solid poll for Tory share.
  • sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 194
    I tend to agree about Hancock. A plonker but he didn't make you want to smash the TV or radio every time he spoke viz. Dorries, Mogg, Braverman, Hayes, some of the neanderthal redwallers who were actually made ministers (yes!) during the brief Boris/Truss interregnum.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,458
    Scott_xP said:
    Why would he want to?

    Might as well get on with his life now. Which, to be fair, he seems to be doing.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,628
    Scott_xP said:

    This is awesome

    Twitter still seems to be operating fine with...checks notes... 70% fewer employees in a week.

    If the rumors hold true it will be down 88% since acquisition by Monday.

    My bet is the site stays up.

    https://twitter.com/alexeheath/status/1593399683086327808

    @MichaelGuimarin It basically flies itself. https://twitter.com/eIonmusk_X/status/1593542016436436992/photo/1


    The beauty of this story is... whilst I don't know who is right and wrong.... it is going to be pretty obvious in 4 weeks if Twitter completely collapses... or... doesn't.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    If Rishi is too scared to put people up for the morning round will Keir volunteer instead?

    Oh

    This approach just doesn't work. Issues will pile up, opposition voices will fill the airwaves & govt will complain they are being misunderstood
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1593652289104973825
    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1593642826516111361
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,756
    edited November 2022
    Driver said:

    Oyster 18+ - the one that paranoid lefties are particularly complaining about for some reason - doesn't.
    'Tis an Oyster not a railcard and I agree, its a poor comparison. The 18-25 and 26-30 require photographic ID and are notably absent.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    rkrkrk said:

    The beauty of this story is... whilst I don't know who is right and wrong.... it is going to be pretty obvious in 4 weeks if Twitter completely collapses... or... doesn't.

    The betting action should be does the system fall over before he runs out of cash...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    Biden leads DeSantis by 4%.

    NEW 2024 Presidential Election Hypothetical Voting Intention (17 November):

    Joe Biden: 43%
    Ron DeSantis: 39%
    Don't Know: 12%

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/joe-biden-administration-approval-ratings-and-hypothetical-voting-intention-17-november-2022 https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1593652813208461312/photo/1
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,270

    So do railcards.
    No photo on my disabled persons railcard.
  • . . . and then there were five . . . undecided seats in US House that is, according to AP > NYT:

    Three where Republican is currently leading"
    > CA22 - Valadao ahead by +4,445 votes (+6%) with est 70% of votes counted so far
    > CA03 - Kiley ahead by +9,472 (+5%) with est 61% counted
    > CA13 - Duarte ahead by +827 votes (+0.67%) with est 93% counted - likely recount
    > CO03 - Boebert ahead by +551 votes (+0.21%) with over 95% counted - almost certain recount

    And one where Democratic incumbent is now leading in first-preferences
    > AK At Large - with est. 90% of votes counted for 1st pref, Peltola currently has 48.1%, compared to Republicans Palin with 26.1% and Begich with 23.8, Libertarian Bye with 1.7%, and 0.3% writeins.

    Based on above numbers, Peltota looks HIGHLY likely to be re-elected, prevailing (yet again) over Palin when 2nd preference votes for writeins, Bye and Begich are factored in for final result.
  • kle4 said:


    Matt Hancock is to be blocked from standing as a Conservative MP at the next election if he fails to regain the Tory whip promptly, The Times understands.

    Conservative MPs must tell the party headquarters by December 5 whether they want to reapply to stand in their current seat or a new constituency created by boundary changes coming into effect for the next election.

    I have to admit I don't really get the level of antipathy Hancock provokes. Those saying he has masses of blood on his hands are overly harsh, and for the rest of it, well, he was a ministerial hypocrite who lost his job as a result, and a terrible husband, and seems to be a bit of a plonker. Seems disdain is more appropriate than the bile he gets, and the apparent eagerness on his own side to get him seems weird.
    There are some pretty deep criticisms of his actions on PPE and care homes. But I agree that it comes over as odd from his own side - he's not the only one who was involved in those decisions. And the "big calls right" excuse, if Tories want to make that argument, surely has to be made for him as much as Johnson.

    I wonder if he's looking at the next election anyway. Some of the comments from party figures in his area and nationally are disouraging to say the least, and I'm not sure what his route back to frontline politics is.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,696
    rkrkrk said:

    The beauty of this story is... whilst I don't know who is right and wrong.... it is going to be pretty obvious in 4 weeks if Twitter completely collapses... or... doesn't.
    Is it?

    What will kill Twitter is a random issue and this is a great overview

    https://twitter.com/MosquitoCapital/status/1593541177965678592

    And today I’ve spent my entire day discussing such an issue at current clientco. A seemingly minor issue in 1 development environment which resulted in A pulled weekend deployment. We will try again next week.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    🔴The Chancellor rejected the prospect of rejoining the single market but backed work in the coming years to strengthen Britain’s relationship with Brussels https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/18/jeremy-hunt-pledges-removal-vast-majority-trade-barriers-eu/
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,270

    Polls good for the Tory’s today - Mori is a Labour friendly pollster, so no great shakes for Labour from that one - pre budget but still useful as the next one will have all the post budget built in for comparison, Omnisis always report Tory share too low, and 28 from Delta in post budget poll is a solid poll for Tory share.

    You're being ironic, right?
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,756
    edited November 2022

    No photo on my disabled persons railcard.
    Ah, do you know why? And Is there even one on the Blue Badges?

  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,782
    ydoethur said:

    Noooooo! How would we cope with losing such a dedicated, brilliant, selfless, intelligent, public serv...oh hold on, did you say Matt Hancock?
    Well I thought Hancock was, in the words of someone else downthread, a plonker. His insistence on trusting dodgy models, on not questioning dubious advice, his sole focus on covid at the expense of all else ... frankly, he was replaced at least 9 months too late.
    But I don't question his dedication, nor even his selflessness. In the early months of covid he looked absolutely shattered. He must have worked for 100 days straight. He was never off. It's no wonder the quality of decision making was less than perfect.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,368
    edited November 2022
    kle4 said:

    Total coincidence it was a blimp with that particular symbol on it.
    I was thinking how appropriate that for their metaphor they used something ridiculously large, consisting of otherwise empty spaces filled with easily inflamed gas.
  • . . . and then there were five . . . undecided seats in US House that is, according to AP > NYT:

    Three where Republican is currently leading"
    > CA22 - Valadao ahead by +4,445 votes (+6%) with est 70% of votes counted so far
    > CA03 - Kiley ahead by +9,472 (+5%) with est 61% counted
    > CA13 - Duarte ahead by +827 votes (+0.67%) with est 93% counted - likely recount
    > CO03 - Boebert ahead by +551 votes (+0.21%) with over 95% counted - almost certain recount

    And one where Democratic incumbent is now leading in first-preferences
    > AK At Large - with est. 90% of votes counted for 1st pref, Peltola currently has 48.1%, compared to Republicans Palin with 26.1% and Begich with 23.8, Libertarian Bye with 1.7%, and 0.3% writeins.

    Based on above numbers, Peltota looks HIGHLY likely to be re-elected, prevailing (yet again) over Palin when 2nd preference votes for writeins, Bye and Begich are factored in for final result.

    In reality, all five of those look likely to go to the vote leader.

    Alaska would take Begich voters acting VERY differently to the special election. The first two California ones are GOP seats where not enough votes have been counted to be sure but they look unexciting. The other California one and Boebert look close but no cigar for the Democrats. It's not like the UK with bundle counts etc where you can spot an error that actually creates a fairly big movement. 551 votes (0.2%) is very likely to survive a recount (particular shame in Boebert's case, but there it is).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited November 2022

    Ah, do you know why? And Is there even one on the Blue Badges?

    Hassle. Especially (as I know from helping a relative) that the application system involves official authentication the first time round. So no need to repeat. And because most - though not all - disabilities are pretty obvious up front. So why waste everyone's time on further ID if the chap in front of you has a wheelchair and a paid for ticket?

    https://www.disabledpersons-railcard.co.uk/are-you-eligible/

    Edit: even *making* people go and get a passport photo can be pretty iffy for some folk. Ergo discriminatory if it is unnecessary.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,194
    edited November 2022
    The evidence of colleagues is that Hancock was not just a plonker but at times a rather mendacious one.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    ydoethur said:

    I was thinking how appropriate that for their metaphor they used something ridiculously large, consisting of otherwise empty spaces filled with easily inflamed gas.
    Pedantic betting: that is a Zeppelin-type rigid airship, though famously filled with hydrogen. The blimps werre non-rigid, but inflated with nonflammable helium (except perhaps for the earliest). This is a blimp.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodyear_Blimp
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,270
    edited November 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Hassle. Especially (as I know from helping a relative) that the application system involves official authentication the first time round. So no need to repeat. And because most - though not all - disabilities are pretty obvious up front. So why waste everyone's time on further ID if the chap in front of you has a wheelchair and a paid for ticket?

    https://www.disabledpersons-railcard.co.uk/are-you-eligible/

    Edit: even *making* people go and get a passport photo can be pretty iffy for some folk. Ergo discriminatory if it is unnecessary.
    But you do have to provide a photo for a Blue Badge. (Though no one checks it's really a photo of you of course, so it's f*ck all use in confirming someone's ID tbh)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,270

    Ah, do you know why? And Is there even one on the Blue Badges?


    No. And yes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    edited November 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    🔴The Chancellor rejected the prospect of rejoining the single market but backed work in the coming years to strengthen Britain’s relationship with Brussels https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/18/jeremy-hunt-pledges-removal-vast-majority-trade-barriers-eu/

    A strong relationship with the EU without freaking out that it meant Brexit was being undermined would show considerable growth in our public policy and discourse.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,654
    All these buggers getting Oyster Cards under somebody else's name, just so they can draw two sets of cock and balls on two separate ballots.

    That. Is. A. Disgrace.
  • kle4 said:

    A strong relationship with the EU without greaking out that it meant Brexit was being undermined would show considerable growth in our public policy and discourse.
    The grown-ups are back in charge. The next election is not lost for the Tories. Perhaps.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,782
    On thread - a clear example of correlation <> causation.
    We know rich people are more likely to be Remainers. Broadly, membership was good if you had assets, bad if you had labour.
    And having a passport is more common if you're rich than poor. Why have a passport if you can't afford a foreign holiday?
    So the result above is not surprising.
    FWIW, while I did have a passport at the time of the vote, I didn't have one when we Brexited, for the reasons above
    Though having inherited a little money I have recently reaquired one.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Same address as the registered address - so postie delivers. Postie doesn't look at the recipient's face.

    Of course anyone could be opening it and filling in the form on the other side of the door, so photos wouldn't help?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    kle4 said:

    A strong relationship with the EU without greaking out that it meant Brexit was being undermined would show considerable growth in our public policy and discourse.
    Indeed, but that Tweet was posted by a Telegraph journalist who is abso-fucking-lutely freaking the fuck out over it...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,270
    Carnyx said:

    Pedantic betting: that is a Zeppelin-type rigid airship, though famously filled with hydrogen. The blimps werre non-rigid, but inflated with nonflammable helium (except perhaps for the earliest). This is a blimp.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodyear_Blimp
    No, that is a post.

    Ceci n'est pas un dirigeable:

    image
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423

    The grown-ups are back in charge. The next election is not lost for the Tories. Perhaps.
    I do not believe the Tory MPs, or the most vocal of their supporters, will permit that. They have Farage to moon over to keen Sunak on track.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    But you do have to provide a photo for a Blue Badge. (Though no one checks it's really a photo of you of course, so it's f*ck all use in confirming someone's ID tbh)
    I can only imagine it's because it's not paid for or screened in even the rudimentary way that a train ticket inspector would give someone the quick once-over on the train when punching the ticket.
  • Scott_xP said:

    If Rishi is too scared to put people up for the morning round will Keir volunteer instead?

    Oh

    This approach just doesn't work. Issues will pile up, opposition voices will fill the airwaves & govt will complain they are being misunderstood
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1593652289104973825
    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1593642826516111361

    On the other hand, I am not sure that Government Ministers often appeared on the Today programme back in the days of Jack De Manio in the late 50s and early to mid 60s. I have never felt that political parties should jump to the tune of the broadcasters. The fact that the latter wish to put on a particular programme imposes no obligation on parties to appear on them. I feel the same way re-General Election debates - the parties should please themselves.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    Scott_xP said:

    Indeed, but that Tweet was posted by a Telegraph journalist who is abso-fucking-lutely freaking the fuck out over it...
    Any sign that the government was ignoring extremist nutters like that as well as extremist nutters from the other side like you would be a good sign.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,782
    Scott_xP said:

    Indeed, but that Tweet was posted by a Telegraph journalist who is abso-fucking-lutely freaking the fuck out over it...
    Eh? Have you read the article? I wouldn't describe it as 'freaking the fuck out'.
  • kle4 said:

    I do not believe the Tory MPs, or the most vocal of their supporters, will permit that. They have Farage to moon over to keen Sunak on track.
    I think most people, except for the pathologically deranged and those of extremely sub-normal IQ, know that Brexit was pointless. It will go back to being the lowliest of priorities, particularly now Putin's bot factories have bigger fish to fry than susceptible British middle-aged Facebook users.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,264
    re Twitter

    It will run itself until "something" like a misconfigured DNS, or a key drive crashes, or something.

    At which point they will be in a world of hurt.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,270
    Carnyx said:

    I can only imagine it's because it's not paid for or screened in even the rudimentary way that a train ticket inspector would give someone the quick once-over on the train when punching the ticket.
    Which?

    The disabled person's rail card costs £20 per year or £54 for 3 years.

    The blue badge costs £10 (for two years) and has considerable potential value of course.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,782

    The evidence of colleagues is that Hancock was not just a plonker but at times a rather mendacious one.

    You don't need the evidence of colleagues for that. In 2020 he was presenting models and projections which were already false when he was presenting them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,621

    The grown-ups are back in charge. The next election is not lost for the Tories. Perhaps.
    OH dear no. The next election is horribly lost for the Tories. And probably the one after that

    Better get used to it
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    The Tories don’t care as the vast majority of postal votes are sent by over 65s.

    It’s extraordinary how little the media are making of the change in voting ID requirements .
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,782
    Cookie said:

    You don't need the evidence of colleagues for that. In 2020 he was presenting models and projections which were already false when he was presenting them.
    He was from the "if they won't believe us when we tell the truth about how bad things are we will have to lie to them" school of thought.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,270
    Carnyx said:

    Same address as the registered address - so postie delivers. Postie doesn't look at the recipient's face.

    Of course anyone could be opening it and filling in the form on the other side of the door, so photos wouldn't help?
    Er... you missed section 3 on the form:

    Address for ballot paper (only required if different to the address where you are registered to vote)
    Please send my ballot paper to (address):

    The reason I would like my ballot paper sent to this address, rather than my registered address is:

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    Ireland asks members of Russian Embassy in Dublin to leave https://bbc.in/3tI3YSo
  • Leon said:

    OH dear no. The next election is horribly lost for the Tories. And probably the one after that

    Better get used to it
    Well, your lot (the populist Brexit fantasists) have certainly done their best to achieve that, but as the man said, a week is a long time in politics.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,264
    kle4 said:

    This had better be one hell of a persuasive piece to try to make this argument - definitely setting itself a tough target for an article.

    John Mearsheimer on Putin’s Ambitions After Nine Months of War
    The realist political scientist explains why Russia’s move to annex four Ukrainian provinces isn’t imperialism.


    https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/john-mearsheimer-on-putins-ambitions-after-nine-months-of-war

    I've read that article, and the man is a fucking loon.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,270
    nico679 said:

    The Tories don’t care as the vast majority of postal votes are sent by over 65s.

    It’s extraordinary how little the media are making of the change in voting ID requirements .
    We do have local elections next May at which the fiasco will become clear, I suppose.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,458
    rcs1000 said:

    re Twitter

    It will run itself until "something" like a misconfigured DNS, or a key drive crashes, or something.

    At which point they will be in a world of hurt.

    I think the disappearance of twitter could be considered a blessing for humanity.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    rcs1000 said:

    re Twitter

    It will run itself until "something" like a misconfigured DNS, or a key drive crashes, or something.

    At which point they will be in a world of hurt.

    They are lucky the World Cup seems to be attracting so little attention so far. It would normally be huge driver of traffic
  • On the other hand, I am not sure that Government Ministers often appeared on the Today programme back in the days of Jack De Manio in the late 50s and early to mid 60s. I have never felt that political parties should jump to the tune of the broadcasters. The fact that the latter wish to put on a particular programme imposes no obligation on parties to appear on them. I feel the same way re-General Election debates - the parties should please themselves.
    Avoiding the media makes sense when you are comfortable ahead and are nervous about things going wrong.

    Avoiding the media when you are hugely behind and really need something to change the narrative... That's another matter.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,270
    Leon said:

    OH dear no. The next election is horribly lost for the Tories. And probably the one after that

    Better get used to it
    Ideal scenario: Tories effectively re-join Single Market, get accused of u-turning on Brexit by the only voters they have left, Labour win a landslide and reap the benefits of the Single Market.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560

    We do have local elections next May at which the fiasco will become clear, I suppose.
    I'm sure there will be Labour activists performatively "being denied their right to vote", anyway.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560

    Avoiding the media makes sense when you are comfortable ahead and are nervous about things going wrong.

    Avoiding the media when you are hugely behind and really need something to change the narrative... That's another matter.
    The proposal seems to be only to put Government ministers up for interview when there's something to actually interview them about. Which doesn't in itself seem problematic.
  • Driver said:

    I'm sure there will be Labour activists performatively "being denied their right to vote", anyway.
    I think most people will go "yea right. Why is it so hard to show ID idiot?"
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,253
    Off topic, except for its connection to vote fraud, real and imagined:

    I just learned this about Kari Lake, the defeated Repubican candidate for governor of Arizona: "Lake has been married to Jeff Halperin since August 1998.[17] She was previously married to Tracy Finnegan, an electrical engineer.[93] Prior to 2015 she identified as a Buddhist,[94] but converted to Christianity in 2019."
    There's no mention of any children, which is surprising for a woman claiming to be "pro-life".

    And she has been a Democrat and an independent, as well as a Republican.
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kari_Lake

    As far as I know, she's never held an elected office, or an executive position of any kind.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,621

    Well, your lot (the populist Brexit fantasists) have certainly done their best to achieve that, but as the man said, a week is a long time in politics.
    No, this is 1992-1997 with bells on. The difference is it is even worse than that, for the Tories. This is Black Wednesday on testosterone supplements. The Tories have super-Ratnered the brand. A nightmare approaches
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,458
    edited November 2022

    The grown-ups are back in charge. The next election is not lost for the Tories. Perhaps.
    Anything Can Happen at Backgammon, but I don't consider that there's much in yesterday's Autumn Statement that would induce people to vote Conservative.

    I think that pushing through spending cuts, and tax rises, in current conditions, makes no fiscal sense. The UK's budget deficit, and debt to GDP ratios, are not out of line with those of other rich nations.

    Inflation has been caused by external shocks, and it will fall when those external shocks have been resolved.

    Although the situation is nowhere near as dire, it reminds me of the National Government pushing through spending cuts in 1931, but back then, these could be blamed on the previous Labour government.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Er... you missed section 3 on the form:

    Address for ballot paper (only required if different to the address where you are registered to vote)
    Please send my ballot paper to (address):

    The reason I would like my ballot paper sent to this address, rather than my registered address is:

    Oh? That's insane.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,270
    Driver said:

    I'm sure there will be Labour activists performatively "being denied their right to vote", anyway.
    To make a point, maybe they should. There are plenty of vulnerable people who will genuinely struggle to find appropriate ID and therefore be disenfranchised.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    edited November 2022

    You're being ironic, right?
    No. Once you study polls Ben you get to know which firms are pro this or that in their methodology. If the next three polls were two 29s from Kantor and Opinium and a 27 from Techne I wouldn’t hesitate calling it disaster for Sunak.

    Edit. I’ve been out shopping all day and blimps have appeared. But I’m not going to ask what I’ve missed or anything.

    Though a blimp thread could only really happen in period of inflation.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    Driver said:

    The proposal seems to be only to put Government ministers up for interview when there's something to actually interview them about. Which doesn't in itself seem problematic.

    The same people who built a custom broadcast studio so they could talk to the public over the heads of the press are now afraid to even talk to the press...

    That seems a little problematic to me
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,856
    kle4 said:

    Where young people still have alternatives it doesn't seem likely, if the government can show (whether people agree or not) that there was a reason to justify why one form is more appropriate as formal ID for voting purposes than another. A court couldn't just substitute its own judgement on that, and on a process level it would be defensible.

    Though the whole thing shows why the whole affair is not worth the marginal gains, since it stirs up aggravation and mistrust in the voting system, and is definitely more confusing.
    About 9% of the electorate don't have an applicable form of ID according to the government's analysis. Very few I think would go to the hassle of obtaining ID purely to vote. Maybe most wouldn't have voted anyway, but that's not the point.

    Not marginal and certainly not a gain

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/984918/Photographic_ID_research-_headline_findings_report.pdf
  • Leon said:

    No, this is 1992-1997 with bells on. The difference is it is even worse than that, for the Tories. This is Black Wednesday on testosterone supplements. The Tories have super-Ratnered the brand. A nightmare approaches
    I think you could be right, and the grown-ups may not be able to fix the trashing of the brand by the Johnsonites. It will be Labour's election to lose, but anything is possible.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Which?

    The disabled person's rail card costs £20 per year or £54 for 3 years.

    The blue badge costs £10 (for two years) and has considerable potential value of course.
    Didn't know the BB was paid for! But there's nobody at most supermarkets to screen the BB parking, is there? Not uch point if there is no photo, though ... so there we are.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    Leon said:

    This is Black Wednesday on testosterone supplements. The Tories have super-Ratnered the brand. A nightmare approaches

    The important question is whether they can successfully tie it to Truss alone, or whether the reality of Brexit intervenes.

    QT last night, not a good omen for them...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,270

    No. Once you study polls Ben you get to know which firms are pro this or that in their methodology. If the next three polls were two 29s from Kantor and Opinium and a 27 from Techne I wouldn’t hesitate calling it disaster for Sunak.
    Haha. Leads over 20% a disaaaaster darling! You are the Craig Revel Horwood of polling analysis.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,264

    Off topic, except for its connection to vote fraud, real and imagined:

    I just learned this about Kari Lake, the defeated Repubican candidate for governor of Arizona: "Lake has been married to Jeff Halperin since August 1998.[17] She was previously married to Tracy Finnegan, an electrical engineer.[93] Prior to 2015 she identified as a Buddhist,[94] but converted to Christianity in 2019."
    There's no mention of any children, which is surprising for a woman claiming to be "pro-life".

    And she has been a Democrat and an independent, as well as a Republican.
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kari_Lake

    As far as I know, she's never held an elected office, or an executive position of any kind.

    She - like many others - has been effectively radicalized by QAnon.

    It's deeply depressing that people are prepared to believe batshit things.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,621
    Sean_F said:

    Anything Can Happen at Backgammon, but I don't consider that there's much in yesterday's Autumn Statement that would induce people to vote Conservative.

    I think that pushing through spending cuts, and tax rises, in current conditions, makes no fiscal sense. The UK's budget deficit, and debt to GDP ratios, are not out of line with those of other rich nations.

    Inflation has been caused by external shocks, and it will fall when those external shocks have been resolved.

    Although the situation is nowhere near as dire, it reminds me of the National Government pushing through spending cuts in 1931, but back then, these could be blamed on the previous Labour government.
    Presumably they felt they had to be this severe, to calm the markets, and regain confidence

    And yet, the politics are absolutely dire

    There is no way back for the Tories, they are doomed to defeat, barring some black swan
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    Jeremy Hunt is facing a rebellion on the right of the Conservative party over his autumn statement - by @rowenamason
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/18/jeremy-hunt-faces-rebellion-on-tory-right-over-autumn-statement
  • rcs1000 said:

    She - like many others - has been effectively radicalized by QAnon.

    It's deeply depressing that people are prepared to believe batshit things.
    Some people like to believe in nonsense. There are a fair few in this country too.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Jeremy Hunt is facing a rebellion on the right of the Conservative party over his autumn statement - by @rowenamason
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/18/jeremy-hunt-faces-rebellion-on-tory-right-over-autumn-statement

    Needs to tell them to fuck right off
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    NEW:

    Exclusive interview with Leader of the Opposition Keir Starmer and Shadow Chancellor coming up on #BBCNewsSix

    He told me he “doesn’t quarrel” with the OBR calculation of a £55bn fiscal gap, and he would “repair the damage” as he claims “we are the party of sound money”
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1593663839031070720/photo/1
  • I believe we have some medical expertise on here , and would be grateful for an informed view.
    I have a good friend who has suffered from depression and anxiety over many years. For the latter he has relied on low doses of Diazepam of which he takes fewer than 50 tablets a year. As a layman that strikes me as using that medication fairly sparingly . However, his GP apparently has concerns re-addiction and has informed him he will only prescribe 20 every six months. This has added to his sense of anxiety - and I am concerned that he is now consulting websites with a view to ordering Barbiturates in the event of the GP denying him the Diazepam - Valium - when needed. There was a time back in the 1960s and 1970s when GPs quite regularly prescribed Barbiturates to patients , but they have long been banned on account of the risks of addiction and overdose.Effectively they are now illicit - but can be acquired at the cost of several hundred pounds on the Internet. I have strongly advised my friend Not to go down this road - and to be fair it seems clear he would only do so as a last resort. I am inclined to question the GP's judgement here - in that the risk of a mild addiction to Diazepam is a minor matter when compared to becoming reliant on Barbiturates. Any sensible comments would be appreciated
  • Scott_xP said:

    NEW:

    Exclusive interview with Leader of the Opposition Keir Starmer and Shadow Chancellor coming up on #BBCNewsSix

    He told me he “doesn’t quarrel” with the OBR calculation of a £55bn fiscal gap, and he would “repair the damage” as he claims “we are the party of sound money”
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1593663839031070720/photo/1

    “we are the party of sound money” lol. Yea right.
This discussion has been closed.