The Tories don’t care as the vast majority of postal votes are sent by over 65s.
It’s extraordinary how little the media are making of the change in voting ID requirements .
We do have local elections next May at which the fiasco will become clear, I suppose.
I'm sure there will be Labour activists performatively "being denied their right to vote", anyway.
To make a point, maybe they should. There are plenty of vulnerable people who will genuinely struggle to find appropriate ID and therefore be disenfranchised.
But what is the point? There are plenty of options. If your vote is important get some valid ID. If you need help to do so, ask for it. Any idea how many countries round the world do not ask for voter ID and how many do?
Again. Again. This is really very simple:
There is no problem with mass in-person voter fraud. The system works. Why on Earth would you fiddle with it?
But can't decide whether to allow Trump back, according to one 'tweet' on that page.
You have to laugh at the rubbish people post on Twitter: Elon Musk spent $44 Billion on Twitter. The World's population is 8 billion. He could have given each person $5 billion and still have money leftover. I feel like a cheque for $5 billion would be life changing for most people. Yet he wasted it all on Twitter.
8 billion times 5 billion is 40 billion for some people, I suppose.
This is a meme based on a pundit fucking up how much money Bloomberg had spent on his presidential run compared to the number of people in the USA.
Keir Starmer accepts £55bn 'black hole' calculation - BBC
I wouldn’t accept anything from this OBR - who picks them, appoints them, and pays the wages of this vital independent link between the bs of politicians and our ears.
It isn't just that - their raison d'etre is to get us fiscally ready for economic and monetary union. They monitor and make their shit, never been accurate predictions, about things that aren't actually decisive factors in whether our economy prospers. Since we're no longer in the EU, and therefore not candidates to join the Euro, their parameters should surely be changed.
But can't decide whether to allow Trump back, according to one 'tweet' on that page.
You have to laugh at the rubbish people post on Twitter: Elon Musk spent $44 Billion on Twitter. The World's population is 8 billion. He could have given each person $5 billion and still have money leftover. I feel like a cheque for $5 billion would be life changing for most people. Yet he wasted it all on Twitter.
8 billion times 5 billion is 40 billion for some people, I suppose.
This is a meme based on a pundit fucking up how much money Bloomberg had spent on his presidential run compared to the number of people in the USA.
It's quite an interesting copyright stooshie that Banksy is stirring up, complaining about Guess using his graffiti for clothes' designs. Then inciting theft.
They are claiming a deal with a third party entitled to license the designs, but as far as I can see it may well be covered by "reproduction of works of artistic craftsmanship on public display" (sounds like graffiti?) in the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 Section 62.
There are a few detail points, but I think he's on a sticky wicket.
Expected in the UK in 2-3 years. The thing about this is that, unlike plant-based meat substitutes, it really is meat - grown from animal cells in the lab instead of in the chicken/cow/pig. For those of us who like the taste and texture of meat but are uneasy about intensive farming and slaughter, it offers a good solution, and it seems to be becoming cheaper than meat via animals (as you'd expect - saves all the husbandry).
Polls good for the Tory’s today - Mori is a Labour friendly pollster, so no great shakes for Labour from that one - pre budget but still useful as the next one will have all the post budget built in for comparison, Omnisis always report Tory share too low, and 28 from Delta in post budget poll is a solid poll for Tory share.
You're being ironic, right?
No. Once you study polls Ben you get to know which firms are pro this or that in their methodology. If the next three polls were two 29s from Kantor and Opinium and a 27 from Techne I wouldn’t hesitate calling it disaster for Sunak.
Haha. Leads over 20% a disaaaaster darling! You are the Craig Revel Horwood of polling analysis.
You know I was referring to the Tory share not lead, because with Labour gobbling up Green and Libdem the Labour leads are gibberish, fluff, in telling us what PV the party’s will get at GE. It’s just sheer logic Ben, with the LLG only creeping to upper 60s in the Trussterfuck, and back town to lower 60s now, not far off it was before hand it’s roundabout out there, the swing you see is just fluff, nor for real - the Tories could go up a mere 2, the greens 3 and Libdems dems 4 and that lead over Tories drop by nearly ten - telling you nothing about wether that is good poll for Tories or not, in fact mislead you, ditto other way Tories gain two, greens and Lib Dem drop three between them to Labour and the lead actually grows. But that would be good poll for Tories Ben. The only thing to watch for in this situation is the Tory poll share.
And know your companies. two 29s from Kantor and Opinium and a 27 from Techne Is dissapointing for Sunak - omnisis and Mori putting Tory’s at 29 great for Tories bad for Labour in this present context.
Following the Con share of the vote is indeed not a bad line to take but you also MUST consider the context.
Ipsos puts Con vote up 3 to 29 but that is in comparison to the worst days of Truss. A 3% bounce since then is nowhere near what the Govt needs. It isn't winning an election with less than 40, probably not with less than 42/43.
The LDs may well out-perform these polls (though that is far from certain) but I suspect the Greens will under-perform them. That combined LD and Green share is generally low teens which is about where I would expect it to be. Will it be higher at the GE? Would all those notional extra votes come from Lab?
The Ref/UKIP share is interesting. The flurry of hand-wringing over immigration seems to have done little but push Con voters over to the Reform/UKIP fringe. Who could have guessed it?
RW has Cons up 1% on last time but down 1% on a week ago. I'll give it a little longer but stabilising in the high 20s is again not what the COns need or require.
Techne has the Cons down 2% in a week, down 1% on a fortnight ago. Should I repeat myself here.
Omnisis is down 5% in a week, down 6% on a fortnight. They are new pollsters and the older poll smells of an out-lier but that trend still looks clear. Stagnation in the Con vote at best.
Con share of the vote is currently high 20s. With a fair wind and a dynamic election campaign by Mr Sunak could they get to the high 30s. No doubt they could but they are two long-shot variables and the Cons would still lose.
There is time for a Con recovery but that time will run through their fingers surprisingly fast. Mr Sunak needs to get a grip, stop making mistakes and clean house of some of the rubbish still hanging around in the Cabinet like bad smells
I believe we have some medical expertise on here , and would be grateful for an informed view. I have a good friend who has suffered from depression and anxiety over many years. For the latter he has relied on low doses of Diazepam of which he takes fewer than 50 tablets a year. As a layman that strikes me as using that medication fairly sparingly . However, his GP apparently has concerns re-addiction and has informed him he will only prescribe 20 every six months. This has added to his sense of anxiety - and I am concerned that he is now consulting websites with a view to ordering Barbiturates in the event of the GP denying him the Diazepam - Valium - when needed. There was a time back in the 1960s and 1970s when GPs quite regularly prescribed Barbiturates to patients , but they have long been banned on account of the risks of addiction and overdose.Effectively they are now illicit - but can be acquired at the cost of several hundred pounds on the Internet. I have strongly advised my friend Not to go down this road - and to be fair it seems clear he would only do so as a last resort. I am inclined to question the GP's judgement here - in that the risk of a mild addiction to Diazepam is a minor matter when compared to becoming reliant on Barbiturates. Any sensible comments would be appreciated
*This is not a post with any medical advise or expertise.*
Generic valium is pennies per pill on the street. I think they're called Benzos - a documentary about it was on Radio 4 when I was driving home the other day. I'm not suggesting that he goes down this route, but he shouldn't be spending hundreds of pounds at any rate.
Again, not a medical opinion.
I would argue against going illegal, and start by asking for a second independent opinion.
Perhaps better than black market, *if* he decides he wants it - and I might argue that that itself is an indication that he perhaps would be better without it - can he go down the route of a private consultant and a private prescription?
It's quite an interesting copyright stooshie that Banksy is stirring up, complaining about Guess using his graffiti for clothes' designs. Then inciting theft.
They are claiming a deal with a third party entitled to license the designs, but as far as I can see it may well be covered by "reproduction of works of artistic craftsmanship on public display" (sounds like graffiti?) in the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 Section 62.
There are a few detail points, but I think he's on a sticky wicket.
"The short point is that Banksy should be pursing Brandalised and or Guess for infringement of his work. However, given she/he wants to remain anonymous, that may well be impossible."
The Tories don’t care as the vast majority of postal votes are sent by over 65s.
It’s extraordinary how little the media are making of the change in voting ID requirements .
We do have local elections next May at which the fiasco will become clear, I suppose.
I'm sure there will be Labour activists performatively "being denied their right to vote", anyway.
To make a point, maybe they should. There are plenty of vulnerable people who will genuinely struggle to find appropriate ID and therefore be disenfranchised.
But what is the point? There are plenty of options. If your vote is important get some valid ID. If you need help to do so, ask for it. Any idea how many countries round the world do not ask for voter ID and how many do?
Again. Again. This is really very simple:
There is no problem with mass in-person voter fraud. The system works. Why on Earth would you fiddle with it?
Why?
Because I think voting is extremely important and believe you should have to prove you have the right. I have consistently said that I would accept the polling card you recieve through the post OR have to show some form of ID. If that’s an electricity bill with your name and address then fine. I don’t think we need to have all voters showing ID cards, just if you don’t produce the polling card. What’s wrong with that?
After the next general election the economy will be Labour's problem
You are both talking gibberish.
Give me you Lab and Con vote shares at the next general election, and you will see when you stop to think about it, you are giving me vote shares nothing like these current polls.
Polls are a snapshot for the moment which is why Opinium's swingback is a little bit silly.
I need to keep writing longer posts to ward off those with limited attention span - that one woefully to the point.
The UC withdrawal rate shouldn't exceed 40% as it smooths entry into work.
The personal allowance shouldn't be far off 20k
The 40p rate should probably kick in about 80k
The 45p rate (if we must have one) about 200k
A true Tory government would be doing this, and ironing out the cliff edges in child benefit withdrawal, voucher withdrawal and personal allowance, withdrawal so work always pays and pays well.
Expected in the UK in 2-3 years. The thing about this is that, unlike plant-based meat substitutes, it really is meat - grown from animal cells in the lab instead of in the chicken/cow/pig. For those of us who like the taste and texture of meat but are uneasy about intensive farming and slaughter, it offers a good solution, and it seems to be becoming cheaper than meat via animals (as you'd expect - saves all the husbandry).
I don’t have data for you last assertion about it being cheaper. It might be eventually, but I cannot see it in the short term. A chicken in Tescos can be had for what, £4?
Expected in the UK in 2-3 years. The thing about this is that, unlike plant-based meat substitutes, it really is meat - grown from animal cells in the lab instead of in the chicken/cow/pig. For those of us who like the taste and texture of meat but are uneasy about intensive farming and slaughter, it offers a good solution, and it seems to be becoming cheaper than meat via animals (as you'd expect - saves all the husbandry).
Why does anyone need it? Why do Germany require it? France? Etc.
Suspect that lack of borders may be one issue, and various alternative methods are needed, of which ID cards may be one.
There is also the national traditions. Is it relevant that most of these countries have been disassembled and reassembled like jigsaws over the centuries? Does that feed into the culture?
For the UK, I can see more upside than downside, and I don't see the problem people get so passionate about.
A strong relationship with the EU without greaking out that it meant Brexit was being undermined would show considerable growth in our public policy and discourse.
The grown-ups are back in charge. The next election is not lost for the Tories. Perhaps.
Anything Can Happen at Backgammon, but I don't consider that there's much in yesterday's Autumn Statement that would induce people to vote Conservative.
I think that pushing through spending cuts, and tax rises, in current conditions, makes no fiscal sense. The UK's budget deficit, and debt to GDP ratios, are not out of line with those of other rich nations.
Inflation has been caused by external shocks, and it will fall when those external shocks have been resolved.
Although the situation is nowhere near as dire, it reminds me of the National Government pushing through spending cuts in 1931, but back then, these could be blamed on the previous Labour government.
Presumably they felt they had to be this severe, to calm the markets, and regain confidence
And yet, the politics are absolutely dire
There is no way back for the Tories, they are doomed to defeat, barring some black swan
My suspicion is that the markets will suss out that tax rises/spending cuts are politically unsustainable. They can read the polls as well as anyone.
What do you call a pincer movement when you are attacked from all angles at once?
That's where the Tories are heading, politically, right now. And I don't even expect the pensioners to be particularly grateful either.
Seems like Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter will prove as successful as Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Both probably seemed a good idea on paper.
Neither of them seemed like a good idea on paper. That's why it took outside observers by suprise even after they had both made it clear what they would do.
Expected in the UK in 2-3 years. The thing about this is that, unlike plant-based meat substitutes, it really is meat - grown from animal cells in the lab instead of in the chicken/cow/pig. For those of us who like the taste and texture of meat but are uneasy about intensive farming and slaughter, it offers a good solution, and it seems to be becoming cheaper than meat via animals (as you'd expect - saves all the husbandry).
I don’t have data for you last assertion about it being cheaper. It might be eventually, but I cannot see it in the short term. A chicken in Tescos can be had for what, £4?
Expected in the UK in 2-3 years. The thing about this is that, unlike plant-based meat substitutes, it really is meat - grown from animal cells in the lab instead of in the chicken/cow/pig. For those of us who like the taste and texture of meat but are uneasy about intensive farming and slaughter, it offers a good solution, and it seems to be becoming cheaper than meat via animals (as you'd expect - saves all the husbandry).
I don’t have data for you last assertion about it being cheaper. It might be eventually, but I cannot see it in the short term. A chicken in Tescos can be had for what, £4?
Ask yourself why that chicken is so cheap to buy.
I don’t need to, I know why. Poor conditions etc. Personally we only ever buy free range meat. An animal still dies for my meal, but I hope it lived a decent life first. My point is I think we are a fair way off getting lab grown meat as cheap, which was what Nick suggested. I’m all in favour of this, just sketical about how close we are to mass market.
Expected in the UK in 2-3 years. The thing about this is that, unlike plant-based meat substitutes, it really is meat - grown from animal cells in the lab instead of in the chicken/cow/pig. For those of us who like the taste and texture of meat but are uneasy about intensive farming and slaughter, it offers a good solution, and it seems to be becoming cheaper than meat via animals (as you'd expect - saves all the husbandry).
I don’t have data for you last assertion about it being cheaper. It might be eventually, but I cannot see it in the short term. A chicken in Tescos can be had for what, £4?
Expected in the UK in 2-3 years. The thing about this is that, unlike plant-based meat substitutes, it really is meat - grown from animal cells in the lab instead of in the chicken/cow/pig. For those of us who like the taste and texture of meat but are uneasy about intensive farming and slaughter, it offers a good solution, and it seems to be becoming cheaper than meat via animals (as you'd expect - saves all the husbandry).
I don't have an objection to this.
I'd like to know the nutritional profile of the meat culture. The whole point in any species eating meat is that it's a form of predigestion - eating the flesh of an animal is a more digestible and nutrient-dense way of eating a field of grass, which is in its turn, a more digestible alternative for the ruminant than eating sunshine and dirt. Since a meat culture isn't (one assumes) evolved/designed to survive, one wonders if it will function well as a nutrition repository. I am open to it as an option though.
The UC withdrawal rate shouldn't exceed 40% as it smooths entry into work.
The personal allowance shouldn't be far off 20k
The 40p rate should probably kick in about 80k
The 45p rate (if we must have one) about 200k
A true Tory government would be doing this, and ironing out the cliff edges in child benefit withdrawal, voucher withdrawal and personal allowance, withdrawal so work always pays and pays well.
A capable Government of any hue would be doing that.
Expected in the UK in 2-3 years. The thing about this is that, unlike plant-based meat substitutes, it really is meat - grown from animal cells in the lab instead of in the chicken/cow/pig. For those of us who like the taste and texture of meat but are uneasy about intensive farming and slaughter, it offers a good solution, and it seems to be becoming cheaper than meat via animals (as you'd expect - saves all the husbandry).
I don't have an objection to this.
I'd like to know the nutritional profile of the meat culture. The whole point in any species eating meat is that it's a form of predigestion - eating the flesh of an animal is a more digestible and nutrient-dense way of eating a field of grass, which is in its turn, a more digestible alternative for the ruminant than eating sunshine and dirt. Since a meat culture isn't (one assumes) evolved/designed to survive, one wonders if it will function well as a nutrition repository. I am open to it as an option though.
I think that’s a really good question. Natural meat is clearly not just 10,000 clone cells, there are other structures such as blood vessels, adipocytes etc. I wonder how well lab grown meat matches up?
I think that’s a really good question. Natural meat is clearly not just 10,000 clone cells, there are other structures such as blood vessels, adipocytes etc. I wonder how well lab grown meat matches up?
I am curious about the flavour.
Not all the meat on a real chicken tastes the same.
A strong relationship with the EU without greaking out that it meant Brexit was being undermined would show considerable growth in our public policy and discourse.
The grown-ups are back in charge. The next election is not lost for the Tories. Perhaps.
Anything Can Happen at Backgammon, but I don't consider that there's much in yesterday's Autumn Statement that would induce people to vote Conservative.
I think that pushing through spending cuts, and tax rises, in current conditions, makes no fiscal sense. The UK's budget deficit, and debt to GDP ratios, are not out of line with those of other rich nations.
Inflation has been caused by external shocks, and it will fall when those external shocks have been resolved.
Although the situation is nowhere near as dire, it reminds me of the National Government pushing through spending cuts in 1931, but back then, these could be blamed on the previous Labour government.
Presumably they felt they had to be this severe, to calm the markets, and regain confidence
And yet, the politics are absolutely dire
There is no way back for the Tories, they are doomed to defeat, barring some black swan
My suspicion is that the markets will suss out that tax rises/spending cuts are politically unsustainable. They can read the polls as well as anyone.
What do you call a pincer movement when you are attacked from all angles at once?
That's where the Tories are heading, politically, right now. And I don't even expect the pensioners to be particularly grateful either.
The sad thing is that the Sunak-Hunt iteration of the Tories is one of the more reasonable episodes in the franchise. A bit like Major-Clarke - and they got really fucked too. They seem to do better electorally when they're led by worse people.
No, but the other 99.9% of the country might be. Seems reasonable, and realistically the only thing to try.
Indeed.
the pertinent question is whether yet another Tory Government will be brought down by Europe (specifically the ERG headbangers) before the plan comes to fruition
I think that’s a really good question. Natural meat is clearly not just 10,000 clone cells, there are other structures such as blood vessels, adipocytes etc. I wonder how well lab grown meat matches up?
I am curious about the flavour.
Not all the meat on a real chicken tastes the same.
Your truly does not need an ID card to vote, and hasn't for a long time.
When I first got to Seattle, I registered to vote, and believe I presented drivers license for identification. Swore oath that info I gave was legit, AND that I was a US citizen.
Three decades later, having changed addresses several times, am still active registered voter
> when I was a poll voter, there was no requirement to present ID at the polls, just signed my John Hancock next to where it was recorded on the precinct voter list.
> after I became a permanent absentee voter (before WA went to all vote-by-mail election) I was mailed a ballot for each election, and when I returned it, my signature on envelope was checked against the one I gave when I first registered to vote.
> same process under all-postal voting, were ballot is automatically mailed out to each eligible, active voter for each election, including primaries and special elections.
Expected in the UK in 2-3 years. The thing about this is that, unlike plant-based meat substitutes, it really is meat - grown from animal cells in the lab instead of in the chicken/cow/pig. For those of us who like the taste and texture of meat but are uneasy about intensive farming and slaughter, it offers a good solution, and it seems to be becoming cheaper than meat via animals (as you'd expect - saves all the husbandry).
Expected in the UK in 2-3 years. The thing about this is that, unlike plant-based meat substitutes, it really is meat - grown from animal cells in the lab instead of in the chicken/cow/pig. For those of us who like the taste and texture of meat but are uneasy about intensive farming and slaughter, it offers a good solution, and it seems to be becoming cheaper than meat via animals (as you'd expect - saves all the husbandry).
I don't have an objection to this.
I'd like to know the nutritional profile of the meat culture. The whole point in any species eating meat is that it's a form of predigestion - eating the flesh of an animal is a more digestible and nutrient-dense way of eating a field of grass, which is in its turn, a more digestible alternative for the ruminant than eating sunshine and dirt. Since a meat culture isn't (one assumes) evolved/designed to survive, one wonders if it will function well as a nutrition repository. I am open to it as an option though.
I think that’s a really good question. Natural meat is clearly not just 10,000 clone cells, there are other structures such as blood vessels, adipocytes etc. I wonder how well lab grown meat matches up?
Quite. If someone suggested replacing your 5 a day with 'lab grown vegetable matter', few would be up for it initially. But meat is more nutrient dense than vegetables. A far more important fact than how it tastes.
No, but the other 99.9% of the country might be. Seems reasonable, and realistically the only thing to try.
Indeed.
the pertinent question is whether yet another Tory Government will be brought down by Europe (specifically the ERG headbangers) before the plan comes to fruition
I don’t think so. I think they keep taking the salary as long as they can.
A strong relationship with the EU without greaking out that it meant Brexit was being undermined would show considerable growth in our public policy and discourse.
The grown-ups are back in charge. The next election is not lost for the Tories. Perhaps.
Anything Can Happen at Backgammon, but I don't consider that there's much in yesterday's Autumn Statement that would induce people to vote Conservative.
I think that pushing through spending cuts, and tax rises, in current conditions, makes no fiscal sense. The UK's budget deficit, and debt to GDP ratios, are not out of line with those of other rich nations.
Inflation has been caused by external shocks, and it will fall when those external shocks have been resolved.
Although the situation is nowhere near as dire, it reminds me of the National Government pushing through spending cuts in 1931, but back then, these could be blamed on the previous Labour government.
Presumably they felt they had to be this severe, to calm the markets, and regain confidence
And yet, the politics are absolutely dire
There is no way back for the Tories, they are doomed to defeat, barring some black swan
My suspicion is that the markets will suss out that tax rises/spending cuts are politically unsustainable. They can read the polls as well as anyone.
What do you call a pincer movement when you are attacked from all angles at once?
That's where the Tories are heading, politically, right now. And I don't even expect the pensioners to be particularly grateful either.
Polls good for the Tory’s today - Mori is a Labour friendly pollster, so no great shakes for Labour from that one - pre budget but still useful as the next one will have all the post budget built in for comparison, Omnisis always report Tory share too low, and 28 from Delta in post budget poll is a solid poll for Tory share.
You're being ironic, right?
No. Once you study polls Ben you get to know which firms are pro this or that in their methodology. If the next three polls were two 29s from Kantor and Opinium and a 27 from Techne I wouldn’t hesitate calling it disaster for Sunak.
Haha. Leads over 20% a disaaaaster darling! You are the Craig Revel Horwood of polling analysis.
You know I was referring to the Tory share not lead, because with Labour gobbling up Green and Libdem the Labour leads are gibberish, fluff, in telling us what PV the party’s will get at GE. It’s just sheer logic Ben, with the LLG only creeping to upper 60s in the Trussterfuck, and back town to lower 60s now, not far off it was before hand it’s roundabout out there, the swing you see is just fluff, nor for real - the Tories could go up a mere 2, the greens 3 and Libdems dems 4 and that lead over Tories drop by nearly ten - telling you nothing about wether that is good poll for Tories or not, in fact mislead you, ditto other way Tories gain two, greens and Lib Dem drop three between them to Labour and the lead actually grows. But that would be good poll for Tories Ben. The only thing to watch for in this situation is the Tory poll share.
And know your companies. two 29s from Kantor and Opinium and a 27 from Techne Is dissapointing for Sunak - omnisis and Mori putting Tory’s at 29 great for Tories bad for Labour in this present context.
Following the Con share of the vote is indeed not a bad line to take but you also MUST consider the context.
Ipsos puts Con vote up 3 to 29 but that is in comparison to the worst days of Truss. A 3% bounce since then is nowhere near what the Govt needs. It isn't winning an election with less than 40, probably not with less than 42/43.
The LDs may well out-perform these polls (though that is far from certain) but I suspect the Greens will under-perform them. That combined LD and Green share is generally low teens which is about where I would expect it to be. Will it be higher at the GE? Would all those notional extra votes come from Lab?
The Ref/UKIP share is interesting. The flurry of hand-wringing over immigration seems to have done little but push Con voters over to the Reform/UKIP fringe. Who could have guessed it?
RW has Cons up 1% on last time but down 1% on a week ago. I'll give it a little longer but stabilising in the high 20s is again not what the COns need or require.
Techne has the Cons down 2% in a week, down 1% on a fortnight ago. Should I repeat myself here.
Omnisis is down 5% in a week, down 6% on a fortnight. They are new pollsters and the older poll smells of an out-lier but that trend still looks clear. Stagnation in the Con vote at best.
Con share of the vote is currently high 20s. With a fair wind and a dynamic election campaign by Mr Sunak could they get to the high 30s. No doubt they could but they are two long-shot variables and the Cons would still lose.
There is time for a Con recovery but that time will run through their fingers surprisingly fast. Mr Sunak needs to get a grip, stop making mistakes and clean house of some of the rubbish still hanging around in the Cabinet like bad smells
This is a great post. Easy to give a like to.
I fully endorse this post.
But I am drunk.
I confess when scrolling up I predicted a different name at the top of this.
Expected in the UK in 2-3 years. The thing about this is that, unlike plant-based meat substitutes, it really is meat - grown from animal cells in the lab instead of in the chicken/cow/pig. For those of us who like the taste and texture of meat but are uneasy about intensive farming and slaughter, it offers a good solution, and it seems to be becoming cheaper than meat via animals (as you'd expect - saves all the husbandry).
I don't have an objection to this.
I'd like to know the nutritional profile of the meat culture. The whole point in any species eating meat is that it's a form of predigestion - eating the flesh of an animal is a more digestible and nutrient-dense way of eating a field of grass, which is in its turn, a more digestible alternative for the ruminant than eating sunshine and dirt. Since a meat culture isn't (one assumes) evolved/designed to survive, one wonders if it will function well as a nutrition repository. I am open to it as an option though.
I think that’s a really good question. Natural meat is clearly not just 10,000 clone cells, there are other structures such as blood vessels, adipocytes etc. I wonder how well lab grown meat matches up?
Figuring out how to make feel like meat as well as taste like meat must be an interesting challenge. I look forward to it.
A strong relationship with the EU without greaking out that it meant Brexit was being undermined would show considerable growth in our public policy and discourse.
The grown-ups are back in charge. The next election is not lost for the Tories. Perhaps.
Anything Can Happen at Backgammon, but I don't consider that there's much in yesterday's Autumn Statement that would induce people to vote Conservative.
I think that pushing through spending cuts, and tax rises, in current conditions, makes no fiscal sense. The UK's budget deficit, and debt to GDP ratios, are not out of line with those of other rich nations.
Inflation has been caused by external shocks, and it will fall when those external shocks have been resolved.
Although the situation is nowhere near as dire, it reminds me of the National Government pushing through spending cuts in 1931, but back then, these could be blamed on the previous Labour government.
Presumably they felt they had to be this severe, to calm the markets, and regain confidence
And yet, the politics are absolutely dire
There is no way back for the Tories, they are doomed to defeat, barring some black swan
My suspicion is that the markets will suss out that tax rises/spending cuts are politically unsustainable. They can read the polls as well as anyone.
What do you call a pincer movement when you are attacked from all angles at once?
Why does anyone need it? Why do Germany require it? France? Etc.
Suspect that lack of borders may be one issue, and various alternative methods are needed, of which ID cards may be one.
There is also the national traditions. Is it relevant that most of these countries have been disassembled and reassembled like jigsaws over the centuries? Does that feed into the culture?
For the UK, I can see more upside than downside, and I don't see the problem people get so passionate about.
Don't know about France, but in Germany you definitely don't need photo ID to vote, unless you don't bring your polling card (never seen anyone without their polling card on the occasions I've voted).
Even if you've lost your polling card, everyone eligible to vote already has photo ID.
It's a terrible idea to require photo ID in the UK, without giving good evidence that it is needed. It's a terrible idea because it lacks cross party support, is seen as favouring one party, doesn't seem to solve a problem that currently exists, and not everyone eligible to vote already has photo ID. It sets a very bad precedent.
The best thing about Twitter right now is reading the astoundingly bad takes from people who haven't been within 500 feet of a high volume tech stack who think Twitter is technologically really simple and can't fall over.
Polls good for the Tory’s today - Mori is a Labour friendly pollster, so no great shakes for Labour from that one - pre budget but still useful as the next one will have all the post budget built in for comparison, Omnisis always report Tory share too low, and 28 from Delta in post budget poll is a solid poll for Tory share.
You're being ironic, right?
No. Once you study polls Ben you get to know which firms are pro this or that in their methodology. If the next three polls were two 29s from Kantor and Opinium and a 27 from Techne I wouldn’t hesitate calling it disaster for Sunak.
Haha. Leads over 20% a disaaaaster darling! You are the Craig Revel Horwood of polling analysis.
You know I was referring to the Tory share not lead, because with Labour gobbling up Green and Libdem the Labour leads are gibberish, fluff, in telling us what PV the party’s will get at GE. It’s just sheer logic Ben, with the LLG only creeping to upper 60s in the Trussterfuck, and back town to lower 60s now, not far off it was before hand it’s roundabout out there, the swing you see is just fluff, nor for real - the Tories could go up a mere 2, the greens 3 and Libdems dems 4 and that lead over Tories drop by nearly ten - telling you nothing about wether that is good poll for Tories or not, in fact mislead you, ditto other way Tories gain two, greens and Lib Dem drop three between them to Labour and the lead actually grows. But that would be good poll for Tories Ben. The only thing to watch for in this situation is the Tory poll share.
And know your companies. two 29s from Kantor and Opinium and a 27 from Techne Is dissapointing for Sunak - omnisis and Mori putting Tory’s at 29 great for Tories bad for Labour in this present context.
Following the Con share of the vote is indeed not a bad line to take but you also MUST consider the context.
Ipsos puts Con vote up 3 to 29 but that is in comparison to the worst days of Truss. A 3% bounce since then is nowhere near what the Govt needs. It isn't winning an election with less than 40, probably not with less than 42/43.
The LDs may well out-perform these polls (though that is far from certain) but I suspect the Greens will under-perform them. That combined LD and Green share is generally low teens which is about where I would expect it to be. Will it be higher at the GE? Would all those notional extra votes come from Lab?
The Ref/UKIP share is interesting. The flurry of hand-wringing over immigration seems to have done little but push Con voters over to the Reform/UKIP fringe. Who could have guessed it?
RW has Cons up 1% on last time but down 1% on a week ago. I'll give it a little longer but stabilising in the high 20s is again not what the COns need or require.
Techne has the Cons down 2% in a week, down 1% on a fortnight ago. Should I repeat myself here.
Omnisis is down 5% in a week, down 6% on a fortnight. They are new pollsters and the older poll smells of an out-lier but that trend still looks clear. Stagnation in the Con vote at best.
Con share of the vote is currently high 20s. With a fair wind and a dynamic election campaign by Mr Sunak could they get to the high 30s. No doubt they could but they are two long-shot variables and the Cons would still lose.
There is time for a Con recovery but that time will run through their fingers surprisingly fast. Mr Sunak needs to get a grip, stop making mistakes and clean house of some of the rubbish still hanging around in the Cabinet like bad smells
This is a great post. Easy to give a like to.
I fully endorse this post.
But I am drunk.
I confess when scrolling up I predicted a different name at the top of this.
Why does anyone need it? Why do Germany require it? France? Etc.
Suspect that lack of borders may be one issue, and various alternative methods are needed, of which ID cards may be one.
There is also the national traditions. Is it relevant that most of these countries have been disassembled and reassembled like jigsaws over the centuries? Does that feed into the culture?
For the UK, I can see more upside than downside, and I don't see the problem people get so passionate about.
Don't know about France, but in Germany you definitely don't need photo ID to vote, unless you don't bring your polling card (never seen anyone without their polling card on the occasions I've voted).
Even if you've lost your polling card, everyone eligible to vote already has photo ID.
It's a terrible idea to require photo ID in the UK, without giving good evidence that it is needed. It's a terrible idea because it lacks cross party support, is seen as favouring one party, doesn't seem to solve a problem that currently exists, and not everyone eligible to vote already has photo ID. It sets a very bad precedent.
Precisely. Photo ID is not in itself a terrible idea, but in this environment and in this way, it will at the least be perceived poorly, and at worst be unfair. Either is a bad idea, but we're locked into it now.
The best thing about Twitter right now is reading the astoundingly bad takes from people who haven't been within 500 feet of a high volume tech stack who think Twitter is technologically really simple and can't fall over.
But you are so dumb you think we are 50,000 years from real AI and you think Stable Diffusion, et al, can never replace human artists
The best thing about Twitter right now is reading the astoundingly bad takes from people who haven't been within 500 feet of a high volume tech stack who think Twitter is technologically really simple and can't fall over.
No, but the other 99.9% of the country might be. Seems reasonable, and realistically the only thing to try.
Sunak and Hunt are the ones acting responsibly and maybe they do see a way of improving relationships with the EU which would be very popular, apart from the dinosaurs in the ERG who either nred to join Reform or accept their days of influence are on the wane
I would have expected to see Nadine Dorries and Andrea Jenkyns in the list.
Nadine is practically a party grandee now, compared to the rest, she needs to be more considered when adding her support.
No, really.
Villiers was actually dropped early on by Boris of all people, Rees-Mogg was a proper Cabinet Member for only about 5 minutes under Truss, IDS and McVey are has beens, Drax/Allan/Jones/Gullis are never beens, and Redwood is a fossil.
Compared to them she was a recent significant figure.
(Actually I don't belittle them that much for being opposed, an awkward squad is a good thing for a government to deal with, they just shouldn't be promoted to high office).
The UC withdrawal rate shouldn't exceed 40% as it smooths entry into work.
The personal allowance shouldn't be far off 20k
The 40p rate should probably kick in about 80k
The 45p rate (if we must have one) about 200k
A true Tory government would be doing this, and ironing out the cliff edges in child benefit withdrawal, voucher withdrawal and personal allowance, withdrawal so work always pays and pays well.
How well did unfunded income tax cuts work last time?
The best thing about Twitter right now is reading the astoundingly bad takes from people who haven't been within 500 feet of a high volume tech stack who think Twitter is technologically really simple and can't fall over.
I'm enjoying following this one.
I have no idea how twitter works or even what a tech stack really is, but one side is going to look stupid in about 4 weeks.
That thought had occurred to me. But we also cannot spend out way out of economic mess, or cut our way out of this mess. And we cannot stand still our way out of this mess.
I know lack of options doesn't make the remaining options good, but we've tried the others.
I would have expected to see Nadine Dorries and Andrea Jenkyns in the list. Perhaps it will grow over the weekend.
It's a actually quite a serious group experience-wise. Good for them for refusing to have this turd of a budget go out with their names on it.
This autumn statement was exactly the wake up call the country needs and Sunak/ Hunt are the ones acting responsibly while the ERG are as detached as the hapless Truss
A PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves would of course face a similar revolt from leftwing Labour backbenchers over any spending cuts as Sunak and Hunt are over tax rises from the backbench Tory right
The best thing about Twitter right now is reading the astoundingly bad takes from people who haven't been within 500 feet of a high volume tech stack who think Twitter is technologically really simple and can't fall over.
But you are so dumb you think we are 50,000 years from real AI and you think Stable Diffusion, et al, can never replace human artists
A PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves would of course face a similar revolt from leftwing Labour backbenchers over any spending cuts as Sunak and Hunt are over tax rises from the backbench Tory right
I suppose the question would be moot if Labour had a majority of 250 and 50 MPs decided to rebel, wouldn't it?
The best thing about Twitter right now is reading the astoundingly bad takes from people who haven't been within 500 feet of a high volume tech stack who think Twitter is technologically really simple and can't fall over.
I'm enjoying following this one.
I have no idea how twitter works or even what a tech stack really is, but one side is going to look stupid in about 4 weeks.
Twitter could keep going for months, maybe even years with only a handful of devs (seriously, maybe a dozen or so?) there to do really basic level admin maintenance, without anything bad happening to it - I'm talking a staff of a couple of dozen.
A big tech stack like Twitter is built to be resilient and self healing and "normal" bad stuff that happens on a day to day basis with self-heal without a human lifting a finger.
The thing that will impact Twitter is the unexpected stuff. But unexpected is... unpredictable. They could go a year without an unexpected thing happening. Or it could happen tomorrow. We don't know.
The unexpected is when you don't have a runbook available to fix the issue. The unexpected is when you need the senior devs from 5 different teams on a call to work out what the fuck just happened. People who know the history of a system to say "Oh, because of this (incredibly obscure face)" or "Holy shit, what if the DB primary keys have run out due to a runway process writing excessing logs???". And that's just from the Twitter tech side.
AWS goes wrong, it's rare but AWS sometimes goes hilariously wrong. Soo bad you have to shut down your operations in that region and fail over to another region. Maybe you have to rebuild your tech stack in the region when it comes back. Does Twitter have enough engineers who know how to build out a region still? IF they don't it doesn't matter at all until... they have to do it. And that might not happen even once over the next 5 years.
What I am saying is that with the massive headcount cull Twitter's surface where a Black Swan could seriously affect it has greatly increased.
Which is not the same as saying it will definitely fail. Black Swans aren't common, but the range of viable catastrophic Black Swans has increased by an order of magnitude for Muskian Twitter.
NARRATOR: It's not fucking "communism" you absolute fucking moron, it's an overdue investigation into your lunatic father STEALING STATE SECRETS. Jesus it's no wonder everyone agrees you're the dumbest Trump you complete fu — DIRECTOR: ... and cut. Let's try that again, shall we? https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/1593694119418789894
What I am saying is that with the massive headcount cull Twitter's surface where a Black Swan could seriously affect it has greatly increased.
Which is not the same as saying it will definitely fail. Black Swans aren't common, but the range of viable catastrophic Black Swans has increased by an order of magnitude for Muskian Twitter.
How are things going at Twitter after last night's exodus?
@alexeheath has this email from Elon Musk asking any engineers who write code to report to the HQ ASAP.
Thomas Homer-Dixon has never been the most optimistic of scientists, but has always had interest insights on systems thinking on a macro scale.
tldr; the climate, covid-like pandemics, inequality and the fact that we can't disagree like adults any more are all linked, and all making each other worse.
I suspect the Institute for Fiscal Studies is right. Britain is now entering an entirely new economic era that will be characterised by high taxes, high spending, big state (and high debt) for decades to come ... https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1593647069096562691/photo/1
In the time honoured tradition of blowing one's own trumpet (a phenomenon of the modern poster, this never happened, well, almost never, back in the early days when we indulged old @SeanT being right once in a blue moon), I did muse the other day on Sunak's problem around maintaining the fragility of unity.
The dissident supporters of former Prime Minister Truss are clearly unhappy about the Hunt Budget/Autumn Statement and the amount of lifting being done by tax rises versus spending cuts. The hazy days of September aren't so distant a memory as to wonder if Kwarteng was ultimately going to pay for his tax cuts with spending cuts.
Hunt has clearly decided balancing the books is in the national interest (just as Clarke decided in the mid-90s building a surplus and repaying debt was preferable to a desperate looking tax cut) and I've not seen any figures on the predicted reduction in the deficit over the next 3-5 years. With debt management payments likely to be around £120 billion next year it's important we don't add more fuel to that fire by continuing to run annual budget deficits.
Whether you accept the notion of the £55 billion "black hole" or not, it's certainly something to ponder and I've yet to see any meaningful figures on proposed Government spending for local authorities. Councils, many of whom will be facing elections next May, can raise additional Council Tax and will doubtless, irrespective of political control, blame Westminster for having so to do. It will re-enforce a negative narrative for the Government going into that round but let's not forget 2019 was a dreadful year for the Conservatives, a poor one for Labour and a decent one for the LDs an Independents.
Looking at results like last night's local by-elections (yes, I know), I imagine Labour will be hoping to make some real progress in strengthening its local Government base next May.
I suspect the Institute for Fiscal Studies is right. Britain is now entering an entirely new economic era that will be characterised by high taxes, high spending, big state (and high debt) for decades to come ... https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1593647069096562691/photo/1
Thomas Homer-Dixon has never been the most optimistic of scientists, but has always had interest insights on systems thinking on a macro scale.
tldr; the climate, covid-like pandemics, inequality and the fact that we can't disagree like adults any more are all linked, and all making each other worse.
Thomas Homer-Dixon has never been the most optimistic of scientists, but has always had interest insights on systems thinking on a macro scale.
tldr; the climate, covid-like pandemics, inequality and the fact that we can't disagree like adults any more are all linked, and all making each other worse.
Comments
There is no problem with mass in-person voter fraud. The system works. Why on Earth would you fiddle with it?
Why?
Both probably seemed a good idea on paper.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-63682298
They are claiming a deal with a third party entitled to license the designs, but as far as I can see it may well be covered by "reproduction of works of artistic craftsmanship on public display" (sounds like graffiti?) in the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 Section 62.
There are a few detail points, but I think he's on a sticky wicket.
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1988/48/section/62
I fully endorse this post.
But I am drunk.
I would argue against going illegal, and start by asking for a second independent opinion.
Perhaps better than black market, *if* he decides he wants it - and I might argue that that itself is an indication that he perhaps would be better without it - can he go down the route of a private consultant and a private prescription?
Sounds like a voluntary choice in that respect.
What’s wrong with that?
Excuse me whilst I slap my bare thigh
The personal allowance shouldn't be far off 20k
The 40p rate should probably kick in about 80k
The 45p rate (if we must have one) about 200k
A true Tory government would be doing this, and ironing out the cliff edges in child benefit withdrawal, voucher withdrawal and personal allowance, withdrawal so work always pays and pays well.
Can we? Thank you. 🤗
We all love doing that on this site, it’s the whole point of the site.
There is also the national traditions. Is it relevant that most of these countries have been disassembled and reassembled like jigsaws over the centuries? Does that feed into the culture?
For the UK, I can see more upside than downside, and I don't see the problem people get so passionate about.
I see that Guido is reporting on the Lib Dem chap who was sent to prison for 18 months for voter fraud (fraudulent proxy votes) in Burnley, and that he is now running events attended by a number of MPs.
https://order-order.com/2022/11/18/mps-back-convicted-corrupt-electoral-fraudsters-campaign/
That's where the Tories are heading, politically, right now. And I don't even expect the pensioners to be particularly grateful either.
Sunak mentored by Gordon Browner 🥹
The headbangers are NOT going to be happy...
Not all the meat on a real chicken tastes the same.
the pertinent question is whether yet another Tory Government will be brought down by Europe (specifically the ERG headbangers) before the plan comes to fruition
When I first got to Seattle, I registered to vote, and believe I presented drivers license for identification. Swore oath that info I gave was legit, AND that I was a US citizen.
Three decades later, having changed addresses several times, am still active registered voter
> when I was a poll voter, there was no requirement to present ID at the polls, just signed my John Hancock next to where it was recorded on the precinct voter list.
> after I became a permanent absentee voter (before WA went to all vote-by-mail election) I was mailed a ballot for each election, and when I returned it, my signature on envelope was checked against the one I gave when I first registered to vote.
> same process under all-postal voting, were ballot is automatically mailed out to each eligible, active voter for each election, including primaries and special elections.
Proper burgers and sausages. No suffering.
Even if you've lost your polling card, everyone eligible to vote already has photo ID.
It's a terrible idea to require photo ID in the UK, without giving good evidence that it is needed. It's a terrible idea because it lacks cross party support, is seen as favouring one party, doesn't seem to solve a problem that currently exists, and not everyone eligible to vote already has photo ID. It sets a very bad precedent.
It basically flies itself!
No, really.
Villiers was actually dropped early on by Boris of all people, Rees-Mogg was a proper Cabinet Member for only about 5 minutes under Truss, IDS and McVey are has beens, Drax/Allan/Jones/Gullis are never beens, and Redwood is a fossil.
Compared to them she was a recent significant figure.
(Actually I don't belittle them that much for being opposed, an awkward squad is a good thing for a government to deal with, they just shouldn't be promoted to high office).
I have no idea how twitter works or even what a tech stack really is, but one side is going to look stupid in about 4 weeks.
I know lack of options doesn't make the remaining options good, but we've tried the others.
If he wins a huge majority in seats way down the target list, the candidates will all be fully vetted and signed up the project.
There will not be many rogue left wingers left
A big tech stack like Twitter is built to be resilient and self healing and "normal" bad stuff that happens on a day to day basis with self-heal without a human lifting a finger.
The thing that will impact Twitter is the unexpected stuff. But unexpected is... unpredictable. They could go a year without an unexpected thing happening. Or it could happen tomorrow. We don't know.
The unexpected is when you don't have a runbook available to fix the issue. The unexpected is when you need the senior devs from 5 different teams on a call to work out what the fuck just happened. People who know the history of a system to say "Oh, because of this (incredibly obscure face)" or "Holy shit, what if the DB primary keys have run out due to a runway process writing excessing logs???". And that's just from the Twitter tech side.
AWS goes wrong, it's rare but AWS sometimes goes hilariously wrong. Soo bad you have to shut down your operations in that region and fail over to another region. Maybe you have to rebuild your tech stack in the region when it comes back. Does Twitter have enough engineers who know how to build out a region still? IF they don't it doesn't matter at all until... they have to do it. And that might not happen even once over the next 5 years.
What I am saying is that with the massive headcount cull Twitter's surface where a Black Swan could seriously affect it has greatly increased.
Which is not the same as saying it will definitely fail. Black Swans aren't common, but the range of viable catastrophic Black Swans has increased by an order of magnitude for Muskian Twitter.
DIRECTOR: ... and cut. Let's try that again, shall we? https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/1593694119418789894
@alexeheath has this email from Elon Musk asking any engineers who write code to report to the HQ ASAP.
https://www.theverge.com/2022/11/18/23466220/if-you-still-work-at-twitter-and-you-can-code-head-to-the-hq-now https://twitter.com/rjcc/status/1593657498589880321/photo/1
https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1593711198561865730?t=F1_8JhEuFC8AdTY3yvYtBw&s=19
Thomas Homer-Dixon has never been the most optimistic of scientists, but has always had interest insights on systems thinking on a macro scale.
tldr; the climate, covid-like pandemics, inequality and the fact that we can't disagree like adults any more are all linked, and all making each other worse.
In the time honoured tradition of blowing one's own trumpet (a phenomenon of the modern poster, this never happened, well, almost never, back in the early days when we indulged old @SeanT being right once in a blue moon), I did muse the other day on Sunak's problem around maintaining the fragility of unity.
The dissident supporters of former Prime Minister Truss are clearly unhappy about the Hunt Budget/Autumn Statement and the amount of lifting being done by tax rises versus spending cuts. The hazy days of September aren't so distant a memory as to wonder if Kwarteng was ultimately going to pay for his tax cuts with spending cuts.
Hunt has clearly decided balancing the books is in the national interest (just as Clarke decided in the mid-90s building a surplus and repaying debt was preferable to a desperate looking tax cut) and I've not seen any figures on the predicted reduction in the deficit over the next 3-5 years. With debt management payments likely to be around £120 billion next year it's important we don't add more fuel to that fire by continuing to run annual budget deficits.
Whether you accept the notion of the £55 billion "black hole" or not, it's certainly something to ponder and I've yet to see any meaningful figures on proposed Government spending for local authorities. Councils, many of whom will be facing elections next May, can raise additional Council Tax and will doubtless, irrespective of political control, blame Westminster for having so to do. It will re-enforce a negative narrative for the Government going into that round but let's not forget 2019 was a dreadful year for the Conservatives, a poor one for Labour and a decent one for the LDs an Independents.
Looking at results like last night's local by-elections (yes, I know), I imagine Labour will be hoping to make some real progress in strengthening its local Government base next May.
This is the most deceitful, pernicious and anti-growth tax ever known to man
An actual tax on jobs
It's so fucking stupid
War
Famine
Pestilence
Disease
Brexit
Truss