Off topic, except for its connection to vote fraud, real and imagined:
I just learned this about Kari Lake, the defeated Repubican candidate for governor of Arizona: "Lake has been married to Jeff Halperin since August 1998.[17] She was previously married to Tracy Finnegan, an electrical engineer.[93] Prior to 2015 she identified as a Buddhist,[94] but converted to Christianity in 2019." There's no mention of any children, which is surprising for a woman claiming to be "pro-life".
As far as I know, she's never held an elected office, or an executive position of any kind.
As to party affiliation, yet more evidence that Kari Lake is indeed Donald Trump in a tight dress.
Due to his longtime residence in NYC, combined with his support for variety of federal, state and especially local candidates over his decades infesting New York County, City and State, reckon that 45's spent more time as a "official" Democrat than as a certifiable (in one sense anyway) Republican.
I believe we have some medical expertise on here , and would be grateful for an informed view. I have a good friend who has suffered from depression and anxiety over many years. For the latter he has relied on low doses of Diazepam of which he takes fewer than 50 tablets a year. As a layman that strikes me as using that medication fairly sparingly . However, his GP apparently has concerns re-addiction and has informed him he will only prescribe 20 every six months. This has added to his sense of anxiety - and I am concerned that he is now consulting websites with a view to ordering Barbiturates in the event of the GP denying him the Diazepam - Valium - when needed. There was a time back in the 1960s and 1970s when GPs quite regularly prescribed Barbiturates to patients , but they have long been banned on account of the risks of addiction and overdose.Effectively they are now illicit - but can be acquired at the cost of several hundred pounds on the Internet. I have strongly advised my friend Not to go down this road - and to be fair it seems clear he would only do so as a last resort. I am inclined to question the GP's judgement here - in that the risk of a mild addiction to Diazepam is a minor matter when compared to becoming reliant on Barbiturates. Any sensible comments would be appreciated
Demand a referral to a specialist, and do not accept being fobbed off.
A strong relationship with the EU without greaking out that it meant Brexit was being undermined would show considerable growth in our public policy and discourse.
The grown-ups are back in charge. The next election is not lost for the Tories. Perhaps.
Anything Can Happen at Backgammon, but I don't consider that there's much in yesterday's Autumn Statement that would induce people to vote Conservative.
I think that pushing through spending cuts, and tax rises, in current conditions, makes no fiscal sense. The UK's budget deficit, and debt to GDP ratios, are not out of line with those of other rich nations.
Inflation has been caused by external shocks, and it will fall when those external shocks have been resolved.
Although the situation is nowhere near as dire, it reminds me of the National Government pushing through spending cuts in 1931, but back then, these could be blamed on the previous Labour government.
Presumably they felt they had to be this severe, to calm the markets, and regain confidence
And yet, the politics are absolutely dire
There is no way back for the Tories, they are doomed to defeat, barring some black swan
My suspicion is that the markets will suss out that tax rises/spending cuts are politically unsustainable. They can read the polls as well as anyone.
Polls good for the Tory’s today - Mori is a Labour friendly pollster, so no great shakes for Labour from that one - pre budget but still useful as the next one will have all the post budget built in for comparison, Omnisis always report Tory share too low, and 28 from Delta in post budget poll is a solid poll for Tory share.
You're being ironic, right?
No. Once you study polls Ben you get to know which firms are pro this or that in their methodology. If the next three polls were two 29s from Kantor and Opinium and a 27 from Techne I wouldn’t hesitate calling it disaster for Sunak.
Edit. I’ve been out shopping all day and blimps have appeared. But I’m not going to ask what I’ve missed or anything.
Though a blimp thread could only really happen in period of inflation.
On ID for voting, as well as whether or not somebody has ID I think there's another issue that will depress turnout. Namely, people who have ID but arrive at the polling station and then realise that they've forgotten to bring their ID; for example, they've left it at home and they're voting on their way home from work. Will they go home to collect it and return to the polling station? I doubt it.
I believe we have some medical expertise on here , and would be grateful for an informed view. I have a good friend who has suffered from depression and anxiety over many years. For the latter he has relied on low doses of Diazepam of which he takes fewer than 50 tablets a year. As a layman that strikes me as using that medication fairly sparingly . However, his GP apparently has concerns re-addiction and has informed him he will only prescribe 20 every six months. This has added to his sense of anxiety - and I am concerned that he is now consulting websites with a view to ordering Barbiturates in the event of the GP denying him the Diazepam - Valium - when needed. There was a time back in the 1960s and 1970s when GPs quite regularly prescribed Barbiturates to patients , but they have long been banned on account of the risks of addiction and overdose.Effectively they are now illicit - but can be acquired at the cost of several hundred pounds on the Internet. I have strongly advised my friend Not to go down this road - and to be fair it seems clear he would only do so as a last resort. I am inclined to question the GP's judgement here - in that the risk of a mild addiction to Diazepam is a minor matter when compared to becoming reliant on Barbiturates. Any sensible comments would be appreciated
Not a medic, but (aparst from the obvious concerns over illegality and impurity/fakery) one point did catch my eye
status quo = 'fewer than 50' per annum New situation = 40 tablets pa (albeit divided in two batches)
So, unless something has been misunderstood, your friend seems to be fretting about a maximum 20% decrease. That's not a lot. But of course he is not in the most sanguine mood anyway; and he may feel he is too restricted.
I believe we have some medical expertise on here , and would be grateful for an informed view. I have a good friend who has suffered from depression and anxiety over many years. For the latter he has relied on low doses of Diazepam of which he takes fewer than 50 tablets a year. As a layman that strikes me as using that medication fairly sparingly . However, his GP apparently has concerns re-addiction and has informed him he will only prescribe 20 every six months. This has added to his sense of anxiety - and I am concerned that he is now consulting websites with a view to ordering Barbiturates in the event of the GP denying him the Diazepam - Valium - when needed. There was a time back in the 1960s and 1970s when GPs quite regularly prescribed Barbiturates to patients , but they have long been banned on account of the risks of addiction and overdose.Effectively they are now illicit - but can be acquired at the cost of several hundred pounds on the Internet. I have strongly advised my friend Not to go down this road - and to be fair it seems clear he would only do so as a last resort. I am inclined to question the GP's judgement here - in that the risk of a mild addiction to Diazepam is a minor matter when compared to becoming reliant on Barbiturates. Any sensible comments would be appreciated
Not a medic, but (aparst from the obvious concerns over illegality and impurity/fakery) one point did catch my eye
status quo = 'fewer than 50' per annum New situation = 40 tablets pa (albeit divided in two batches)
So, unless something has been misunderstood, your friend seems to be fretting about a maximum 20% decrease. That's not a lot. But of course he is not in the most sanguine mood anyway; and he may feel he is too restricted.
Thanks. That is fair comment and had occurred to me. I think it is case of him going through periods when he needs the Diazepam two or three times a week - whilst also going without any use for a month or two. He is clearly considering the worst possible scenario. I am not sure the GP has acted wisely here.I wonder how he would react were to be aware that one of his patients was contemplating resorting to Barbiturates.
Matt Hancock is to be blocked from standing as a Conservative MP at the next election if he fails to regain the Tory whip promptly, The Times understands.
Conservative MPs must tell the party headquarters by December 5 whether they want to reapply to stand in their current seat or a new constituency created by boundary changes coming into effect for the next election.
I have to admit I don't really get the level of antipathy Hancock provokes. Those saying he has masses of blood on his hands are overly harsh, and for the rest of it, well, he was a ministerial hypocrite who lost his job as a result, and a terrible husband, and seems to be a bit of a plonker. Seems disdain is more appropriate than the bile he gets, and the apparent eagerness on his own side to get him seems weird.
It is the first eviction tonight and I have put in my 5 votes for Hancock. I think it would be hilarious if he beat some of the smug luvvies such as Boy George and Charlene
I believe we have some medical expertise on here , and would be grateful for an informed view. I have a good friend who has suffered from depression and anxiety over many years. For the latter he has relied on low doses of Diazepam of which he takes fewer than 50 tablets a year. As a layman that strikes me as using that medication fairly sparingly . However, his GP apparently has concerns re-addiction and has informed him he will only prescribe 20 every six months. This has added to his sense of anxiety - and I am concerned that he is now consulting websites with a view to ordering Barbiturates in the event of the GP denying him the Diazepam - Valium - when needed. There was a time back in the 1960s and 1970s when GPs quite regularly prescribed Barbiturates to patients , but they have long been banned on account of the risks of addiction and overdose.Effectively they are now illicit - but can be acquired at the cost of several hundred pounds on the Internet. I have strongly advised my friend Not to go down this road - and to be fair it seems clear he would only do so as a last resort. I am inclined to question the GP's judgement here - in that the risk of a mild addiction to Diazepam is a minor matter when compared to becoming reliant on Barbiturates. Any sensible comments would be appreciated
I know quite a lot about this. Indeed I have had a Diazepam addiction! I take or took them for sleeping, and came to rely on them
The withdrawal is unpleasant and prolonged. Tho it is nowhere near as bad as a withdrawal from Xanax (which I have also experienced) - that can send you half mad, or even kill you, in extremis
If your friend is taking fewer than 50 pills a year, then that is less than one a week. That's not a huge amount. However it depends if he is doing 5mg or 10mg, the two standard doses. Even if it is 10mg he will not have a massive habit and the withdrawal, if he stops, will likely be fairly tolerable
And as others have said going from under 50 a year to 40 a year is not a dramatic reduction
He absolutely should not go anywhere near barbiturates. They are terribly dangerous
If he needs to go online and buy pills why does he not simply buy more Diazepam? I'm not advising this, but it can be done, and a handful of extra diazepam pills are much less menacing then barbiturates
Off topic, except for its connection to vote fraud, real and imagined:
I just learned this about Kari Lake, the defeated Repubican candidate for governor of Arizona: "Lake has been married to Jeff Halperin since August 1998.[17] She was previously married to Tracy Finnegan, an electrical engineer.[93] Prior to 2015 she identified as a Buddhist,[94] but converted to Christianity in 2019." There's no mention of any children, which is surprising for a woman claiming to be "pro-life".
As far as I know, she's never held an elected office, or an executive position of any kind.
She has two children aged 19 and 14 with her second husband, but he dislikes publicity and so keeps them out of the public eye. Except for the images she plasters all over Instagram of them.
I believe we have some medical expertise on here , and would be grateful for an informed view. I have a good friend who has suffered from depression and anxiety over many years. For the latter he has relied on low doses of Diazepam of which he takes fewer than 50 tablets a year. As a layman that strikes me as using that medication fairly sparingly . However, his GP apparently has concerns re-addiction and has informed him he will only prescribe 20 every six months. This has added to his sense of anxiety - and I am concerned that he is now consulting websites with a view to ordering Barbiturates in the event of the GP denying him the Diazepam - Valium - when needed. There was a time back in the 1960s and 1970s when GPs quite regularly prescribed Barbiturates to patients , but they have long been banned on account of the risks of addiction and overdose.Effectively they are now illicit - but can be acquired at the cost of several hundred pounds on the Internet. I have strongly advised my friend Not to go down this road - and to be fair it seems clear he would only do so as a last resort. I am inclined to question the GP's judgement here - in that the risk of a mild addiction to Diazepam is a minor matter when compared to becoming reliant on Barbiturates. Any sensible comments would be appreciated
I know quite a lot about this. Indeed I have had a Diazepam addiction! I take or took them for sleeping, and came to rely on them
The withdrawal is unpleasant and prolonged. Tho it is nowhere near as bad as a withdrawal from Xanax (which I have also experienced) - that can send you half mad, or even kill you, in extremis
If your friend is taking fewer than 50 pills a year, then that is less than one a week. That's not a huge amount. However it depends if he is doing 5mg or 10mg, the two standard doses. Even if it is 10mg he will not have a massive habit and the withdrawal, if he stops, will likely be fairly tolerable
And as others have said going from under 50 a year to 40 a year is not a dramatic reduction
He absolutely should not go anywhere near barbiturates. They are terribly dangerous
If he needs to go online and buy pills why does he not simply buy more Diazepam? I'm not advising this, but it can be done, and a handful of extra diazepam pills are much less menacing then barbiturates
Thanks . I believe his Diazepam pills are 5mg. To me he seems a long way from being addicted.
Matt Hancock is to be blocked from standing as a Conservative MP at the next election if he fails to regain the Tory whip promptly, The Times understands.
Conservative MPs must tell the party headquarters by December 5 whether they want to reapply to stand in their current seat or a new constituency created by boundary changes coming into effect for the next election.
I have to admit I don't really get the level of antipathy Hancock provokes. Those saying he has masses of blood on his hands are overly harsh, and for the rest of it, well, he was a ministerial hypocrite who lost his job as a result, and a terrible husband, and seems to be a bit of a plonker. Seems disdain is more appropriate than the bile he gets, and the apparent eagerness on his own side to get him seems weird.
It is the first eviction tonight and I have put in my 5 votes for Hancock. I think it would be hilarious if he beat some of the smug luvvies such as Boy George and Charlene
Reminds yours truly of the salad days of only yesterday, when Tom DeLay and Fucker Carlson of Grifters On Parade, were competing (not well) on US prime-time TV's "Dancing With the Stars".
I believe we have some medical expertise on here , and would be grateful for an informed view. I have a good friend who has suffered from depression and anxiety over many years. For the latter he has relied on low doses of Diazepam of which he takes fewer than 50 tablets a year. As a layman that strikes me as using that medication fairly sparingly . However, his GP apparently has concerns re-addiction and has informed him he will only prescribe 20 every six months. This has added to his sense of anxiety - and I am concerned that he is now consulting websites with a view to ordering Barbiturates in the event of the GP denying him the Diazepam - Valium - when needed. There was a time back in the 1960s and 1970s when GPs quite regularly prescribed Barbiturates to patients , but they have long been banned on account of the risks of addiction and overdose.Effectively they are now illicit - but can be acquired at the cost of several hundred pounds on the Internet. I have strongly advised my friend Not to go down this road - and to be fair it seems clear he would only do so as a last resort. I am inclined to question the GP's judgement here - in that the risk of a mild addiction to Diazepam is a minor matter when compared to becoming reliant on Barbiturates. Any sensible comments would be appreciated
Not a medic, but (aparst from the obvious concerns over illegality and impurity/fakery) one point did catch my eye
status quo = 'fewer than 50' per annum New situation = 40 tablets pa (albeit divided in two batches)
So, unless something has been misunderstood, your friend seems to be fretting about a maximum 20% decrease. That's not a lot. But of course he is not in the most sanguine mood anyway; and he may feel he is too restricted. for t
His GP is being a tad difficult. I'm addicted to diazepam and have taken it for over 50 years.....after 10 years I got it down to 2 tablets a week, say 100 a year but failed to reduce it further. That's a small dose but it keeps me perfectly stable and if 50 tablets a year do the same for your friend I feel that the attempt to insist on a 20% reduction isn't really necessary.
I believe we have some medical expertise on here , and would be grateful for an informed view. I have a good friend who has suffered from depression and anxiety over many years. For the latter he has relied on low doses of Diazepam of which he takes fewer than 50 tablets a year. As a layman that strikes me as using that medication fairly sparingly . However, his GP apparently has concerns re-addiction and has informed him he will only prescribe 20 every six months. This has added to his sense of anxiety - and I am concerned that he is now consulting websites with a view to ordering Barbiturates in the event of the GP denying him the Diazepam - Valium - when needed. There was a time back in the 1960s and 1970s when GPs quite regularly prescribed Barbiturates to patients , but they have long been banned on account of the risks of addiction and overdose.Effectively they are now illicit - but can be acquired at the cost of several hundred pounds on the Internet. I have strongly advised my friend Not to go down this road - and to be fair it seems clear he would only do so as a last resort. I am inclined to question the GP's judgement here - in that the risk of a mild addiction to Diazepam is a minor matter when compared to becoming reliant on Barbiturates. Any sensible comments would be appreciated
I know quite a lot about this. Indeed I have had a Diazepam addiction! I take or took them for sleeping, and came to rely on them
The withdrawal is unpleasant and prolonged. Tho it is nowhere near as bad as a withdrawal from Xanax (which I have also experienced) - that can send you half mad, or even kill you, in extremis
If your friend is taking fewer than 50 pills a year, then that is less than one a week. That's not a huge amount. However it depends if he is doing 5mg or 10mg, the two standard doses. Even if it is 10mg he will not have a massive habit and the withdrawal, if he stops, will likely be fairly tolerable
And as others have said going from under 50 a year to 40 a year is not a dramatic reduction
He absolutely should not go anywhere near barbiturates. They are terribly dangerous
If he needs to go online and buy pills why does he not simply buy more Diazepam? I'm not advising this, but it can be done, and a handful of extra diazepam pills are much less menacing then barbiturates
Thanks . I believe his Diazepam pills are 5mg. To me he seems a long way from being addicted.
Yes, I agree. 5mg every week or so is really quite trivial
. . . and then there were five . . . undecided seats in US House that is, according to AP > NYT:
Three where Republican is currently leading" > CA22 - Valadao ahead by +4,445 votes (+6%) with est 70% of votes counted so far > CA03 - Kiley ahead by +9,472 (+5%) with est 61% counted > CA13 - Duarte ahead by +827 votes (+0.67%) with est 93% counted - likely recount > CO03 - Boebert ahead by +551 votes (+0.21%) with over 95% counted - almost certain recount
And one where Democratic incumbent is now leading in first-preferences > AK At Large - with est. 90% of votes counted for 1st pref, Peltola currently has 48.1%, compared to Republicans Palin with 26.1% and Begich with 23.8, Libertarian Bye with 1.7%, and 0.3% writeins.
Based on above numbers, Peltota looks HIGHLY likely to be re-elected, prevailing (yet again) over Palin when 2nd preference votes for writeins, Bye and Begich are factored in for final result.
In reality, all five of those look likely to go to the vote leader.
Alaska would take Begich voters acting VERY differently to the special election. The first two California ones are GOP seats where not enough votes have been counted to be sure but they look unexciting. The other California one and Boebert look close but no cigar for the Democrats. It's not like the UK with bundle counts etc where you can spot an error that actually creates a fairly big movement. 551 votes (0.2%) is very likely to survive a recount (particular shame in Boebert's case, but there it is).
With respect to CA22, it is NOT a naturally Republican seat, but rather a marginal, swing district. Where outcome this year is complicated by fact that Valadao voted to impeach Trump after 1/6.
That said, do agree he is likely to be re-elected with all the votes are counted.
The Tories don’t care as the vast majority of postal votes are sent by over 65s.
It’s extraordinary how little the media are making of the change in voting ID requirements .
We do have local elections next May at which the fiasco will become clear, I suppose.
I'm sure there will be Labour activists performatively "being denied their right to vote", anyway.
To make a point, maybe they should. There are plenty of vulnerable people who will genuinely struggle to find appropriate ID and therefore be disenfranchised.
But what is the point? There are plenty of options. If your vote is important get some valid ID. If you need help to do so, ask for it. Any idea how many countries round the world do not ask for voter ID and how many do?
I believe we have some medical expertise on here , and would be grateful for an informed view. I have a good friend who has suffered from depression and anxiety over many years. For the latter he has relied on low doses of Diazepam of which he takes fewer than 50 tablets a year. As a layman that strikes me as using that medication fairly sparingly . However, his GP apparently has concerns re-addiction and has informed him he will only prescribe 20 every six months. This has added to his sense of anxiety - and I am concerned that he is now consulting websites with a view to ordering Barbiturates in the event of the GP denying him the Diazepam - Valium - when needed. There was a time back in the 1960s and 1970s when GPs quite regularly prescribed Barbiturates to patients , but they have long been banned on account of the risks of addiction and overdose.Effectively they are now illicit - but can be acquired at the cost of several hundred pounds on the Internet. I have strongly advised my friend Not to go down this road - and to be fair it seems clear he would only do so as a last resort. I am inclined to question the GP's judgement here - in that the risk of a mild addiction to Diazepam is a minor matter when compared to becoming reliant on Barbiturates. Any sensible comments would be appreciated
I know quite a lot about this. Indeed I have had a Diazepam addiction! I take or took them for sleeping, and came to rely on them
The withdrawal is unpleasant and prolonged. Tho it is nowhere near as bad as a withdrawal from Xanax (which I have also experienced) - that can send you half mad, or even kill you, in extremis
If your friend is taking fewer than 50 pills a year, then that is less than one a week. That's not a huge amount. However it depends if he is doing 5mg or 10mg, the two standard doses. Even if it is 10mg he will not have a massive habit and the withdrawal, if he stops, will likely be fairly tolerable
And as others have said going from under 50 a year to 40 a year is not a dramatic reduction
He absolutely should not go anywhere near barbiturates. They are terribly dangerous
If he needs to go online and buy pills why does he not simply buy more Diazepam? I'm not advising this, but it can be done, and a handful of extra diazepam pills are much less menacing then barbiturates
Thanks . I believe his Diazepam pills are 5mg. To me he seems a long way from being addicted.
Yes, I agree. 5mg every week or so is really quite trivial
He also tends to break the tablets in half - and takes half a pill when needed.
. . . and then there were five . . . undecided seats in US House that is, according to AP > NYT:
Three where Republican is currently leading" > CA22 - Valadao ahead by +4,445 votes (+6%) with est 70% of votes counted so far > CA03 - Kiley ahead by +9,472 (+5%) with est 61% counted > CA13 - Duarte ahead by +827 votes (+0.67%) with est 93% counted - likely recount > CO03 - Boebert ahead by +551 votes (+0.21%) with over 95% counted - almost certain recount
And one where Democratic incumbent is now leading in first-preferences > AK At Large - with est. 90% of votes counted for 1st pref, Peltola currently has 48.1%, compared to Republicans Palin with 26.1% and Begich with 23.8, Libertarian Bye with 1.7%, and 0.3% writeins.
Based on above numbers, Peltota looks HIGHLY likely to be re-elected, prevailing (yet again) over Palin when 2nd preference votes for writeins, Bye and Begich are factored in for final result.
In reality, all five of those look likely to go to the vote leader.
Alaska would take Begich voters acting VERY differently to the special election. The first two California ones are GOP seats where not enough votes have been counted to be sure but they look unexciting. The other California one and Boebert look close but no cigar for the Democrats. It's not like the UK with bundle counts etc where you can spot an error that actually creates a fairly big movement. 551 votes (0.2%) is very likely to survive a recount (particular shame in Boebert's case, but there it is).
With respect to CA22, it is NOT a naturally Republican seat, but rather a marginal, swing district. Where outcome this year is complicated by fact that Valadao voted to impeach Trump after 1/6.
That said, do agree he is likely to be re-elected with all the votes are counted.
Boebert's wikipedia page (and other internet rumours about her past) are distinctly entertaining.
"The Guardian view on Jeremy Hunt’s autumn statement: setting a trap for Labour
The government wants voters to think the economic question is about reducing debt rather than Tory failure
It is easy to see why Mr Hunt thinks that as long as the issue is controlling inflation or reducing debt, rather than the failure of Tory economic management, it may be that the government has a chance to prosper. He knows that elections are fought not between conflicting answers to the same question, but rather between conflicting questions.
Yet Labour is not offering any competition for people’s thinking."
"Thinking", lol!
Whichever moron wrote this seems to be oblivious to the fact that Labour are way ahead in the polls and in addition can't work it out that it won't be "the economy" (whether in the form of good or bad management or "reducing debt") that the Tories campaign on in the next election.
. . . and then there were five . . . undecided seats in US House that is, according to AP > NYT:
Three where Republican is currently leading" > CA22 - Valadao ahead by +4,445 votes (+6%) with est 70% of votes counted so far > CA03 - Kiley ahead by +9,472 (+5%) with est 61% counted > CA13 - Duarte ahead by +827 votes (+0.67%) with est 93% counted - likely recount > CO03 - Boebert ahead by +551 votes (+0.21%) with over 95% counted - almost certain recount
And one where Democratic incumbent is now leading in first-preferences > AK At Large - with est. 90% of votes counted for 1st pref, Peltola currently has 48.1%, compared to Republicans Palin with 26.1% and Begich with 23.8, Libertarian Bye with 1.7%, and 0.3% writeins.
Based on above numbers, Peltota looks HIGHLY likely to be re-elected, prevailing (yet again) over Palin when 2nd preference votes for writeins, Bye and Begich are factored in for final result.
In reality, all five of those look likely to go to the vote leader.
Alaska would take Begich voters acting VERY differently to the special election. The first two California ones are GOP seats where not enough votes have been counted to be sure but they look unexciting. The other California one and Boebert look close but no cigar for the Democrats. It's not like the UK with bundle counts etc where you can spot an error that actually creates a fairly big movement. 551 votes (0.2%) is very likely to survive a recount (particular shame in Boebert's case, but there it is).
With respect to CA22, it is NOT a naturally Republican seat, but rather a marginal, swing district. Where outcome this year is complicated by fact that Valadao voted to impeach Trump after 1/6.
That said, do agree he is likely to be re-elected with all the votes are counted.
Boebert's wikipedia page (and other internet rumours about her past) are distinctly entertaining.
Well, perhaps but for the grace of God(dess) there go the likes of you & yours truly?
One thing I like about electoral politics, is that the twists and turns are continually bringing forward (and then often backward) unusual and interesting, if sometimes arresting or even appalling histories, personalities and trajectories.
For all her manifold faults, Lauren Boebert represents (in a fashion) millions of young(ish) women in America, who together with their husbands have built up their own small businesses, often with lots of ups and downs and etc., etc. along the way.
Newest example is US Representative-Elect Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez (WA03-D) of Stevenson, WA who along with her husband owns and operates an auto-body shop in Portland, OR just across the Columbia River.
Somewhat untypically, MGP is also the daughter of an immigrant AND a fifth-generation Washingtonian, who is a graduate of Reed College, which is one of the best-regarded small colleges in the USA.
BTW (and FYI) her hometown is county seat of Skamania County, large in size but quite small in population, famed for it's world-class wind surfing in the Columbia River Gorge.
One heard a national political hack burst out with laughter when Skamania (pronounced to rhyme, or chime, with "mania") was mentioned at an important meeting. Not a good look for him.
Took them that long?! Especvially given (a) the legalities of broadcasting in the UK, and (b) one presumed target demographic (right-wing, brexiter and elderly). That does surprise me. Pretty shitty organization to be so slow.
On ID for voting, as well as whether or not somebody has ID I think there's another issue that will depress turnout. Namely, people who have ID but arrive at the polling station and then realise that they've forgotten to bring their ID; for example, they've left it at home and they're voting on their way home from work. Will they go home to collect it and return to the polling station? I doubt it.
This is the perfect example of a solution to an almost non-existent problem. If there was any problem with voting, it was mostly with postal voting, not in-person voting.
Everyone knew the broad strokes of what he was going to propose, the direction of travel. So they can rebel, sure, but the party, if unhappily, chose this path.
. . . and then there were five . . . undecided seats in US House that is, according to AP > NYT:
Three where Republican is currently leading" > CA22 - Valadao ahead by +4,445 votes (+6%) with est 70% of votes counted so far > CA03 - Kiley ahead by +9,472 (+5%) with est 61% counted > CA13 - Duarte ahead by +827 votes (+0.67%) with est 93% counted - likely recount > CO03 - Boebert ahead by +551 votes (+0.21%) with over 95% counted - almost certain recount
And one where Democratic incumbent is now leading in first-preferences > AK At Large - with est. 90% of votes counted for 1st pref, Peltola currently has 48.1%, compared to Republicans Palin with 26.1% and Begich with 23.8, Libertarian Bye with 1.7%, and 0.3% writeins.
Based on above numbers, Peltota looks HIGHLY likely to be re-elected, prevailing (yet again) over Palin when 2nd preference votes for writeins, Bye and Begich are factored in for final result.
In reality, all five of those look likely to go to the vote leader.
Alaska would take Begich voters acting VERY differently to the special election. The first two California ones are GOP seats where not enough votes have been counted to be sure but they look unexciting. The other California one and Boebert look close but no cigar for the Democrats. It's not like the UK with bundle counts etc where you can spot an error that actually creates a fairly big movement. 551 votes (0.2%) is very likely to survive a recount (particular shame in Boebert's case, but there it is).
With respect to CA22, it is NOT a naturally Republican seat, but rather a marginal, swing district. Where outcome this year is complicated by fact that Valadao voted to impeach Trump after 1/6.
That said, do agree he is likely to be re-elected with all the votes are counted.
So at least one person who voted to impeach him is not running away or defeated, that's something.
If the EU ran its PR better it would operate e.g. an EU-wide transport pass scheme for the 60+. ("I can't wait for my Eurocard.")
Then it would enact EU-wide laws against cruelty to animals, e.g. bans on cockfighting, foxhunting, bullfighting - and if Britain were still a member, on the barbaric killing of seagull chicks on Sula Sgeir in Scotland. ("Well the national government obviously wasn't going to do anything.")
Am now gonna take a break from following ongoing election returns (federal, state & local) to watch a rerun of "Forged in Fire" currently my fav "reality show" featuring blacksmiths making a wide variety of lethal weapons.
My guess is that three-quarters of the contestants (at least) voted for Trump, not once, but twice.
Strangely (or rather not) the non-winners on this show do NOT bewail and bemoan there fate, much less blame it on fraud and conspiracy.
Because they have WAY too much self-respect for that kind of rat-poop.
. . . and then there were five . . . undecided seats in US House that is, according to AP > NYT:
Three where Republican is currently leading" > CA22 - Valadao ahead by +4,445 votes (+6%) with est 70% of votes counted so far > CA03 - Kiley ahead by +9,472 (+5%) with est 61% counted > CA13 - Duarte ahead by +827 votes (+0.67%) with est 93% counted - likely recount > CO03 - Boebert ahead by +551 votes (+0.21%) with over 95% counted - almost certain recount
And one where Democratic incumbent is now leading in first-preferences > AK At Large - with est. 90% of votes counted for 1st pref, Peltola currently has 48.1%, compared to Republicans Palin with 26.1% and Begich with 23.8, Libertarian Bye with 1.7%, and 0.3% writeins.
Based on above numbers, Peltota looks HIGHLY likely to be re-elected, prevailing (yet again) over Palin when 2nd preference votes for writeins, Bye and Begich are factored in for final result.
In reality, all five of those look likely to go to the vote leader.
Alaska would take Begich voters acting VERY differently to the special election. The first two California ones are GOP seats where not enough votes have been counted to be sure but they look unexciting. The other California one and Boebert look close but no cigar for the Democrats. It's not like the UK with bundle counts etc where you can spot an error that actually creates a fairly big movement. 551 votes (0.2%) is very likely to survive a recount (particular shame in Boebert's case, but there it is).
With respect to CA22, it is NOT a naturally Republican seat, but rather a marginal, swing district. Where outcome this year is complicated by fact that Valadao voted to impeach Trump after 1/6.
That said, do agree he is likely to be re-elected with all the votes are counted.
So at least one person who voted to impeach him is not running away or defeated, that's something.
Two.
Dan Newhouse is winning re-election in WA04 with 68% of the vote, against a Democrat in a very safe GOP seat; note that Newhouse beat out Trump Republican in primary to make Top Two general election (Dem came in first in primary because DN & nutbagger split the GOP vote).
The person at Deltapoll is wrong. An R2 of 0.499 is not a "strong" linear relationship - 0.7 is generally taken as the threshold. Under 0.5 is generally regarded as "moderate" or "weak".
E.g. "- if R-squared value 0.3 < r < 0.5 this value is generally considered a weak or low effect size," - Moore et al. (2013), or Henseler (2009) proposed a rule of thumb for acceptable R2 with 0.75, 0.50, and 0.25 are described as substantial, moderate and weak respectively.
Am now gonna take a break from following ongoing election returns (federal, state & local) to watch a rerun of "Forged in Fire" currently my fav "reality show" featuring blacksmiths making a wide variety of lethal weapons.
My guess is that three-quarters of the contestants (at least) voted for Trump, not once, but twice.
Strangely (or rather not) the non-winners on this show do NOT bewail and bemoan there fate, much less blame it on fraud and conspiracy.
Because they have WAY too much self-respect for that kind of rat-poop.
I think Trump is facing a catastrophic failure of his blade....
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Polls good for the Tory’s today - Mori is a Labour friendly pollster, so no great shakes for Labour from that one - pre budget but still useful as the next one will have all the post budget built in for comparison, Omnisis always report Tory share too low, and 28 from Delta in post budget poll is a solid poll for Tory share.
You're being ironic, right?
No. Once you study polls Ben you get to know which firms are pro this or that in their methodology. If the next three polls were two 29s from Kantor and Opinium and a 27 from Techne I wouldn’t hesitate calling it disaster for Sunak.
Haha. Leads over 20% a disaaaaster darling! You are the Craig Revel Horwood of polling analysis.
You know I was referring to the Tory share not lead, because with Labour gobbling up Green and Libdem the Labour leads are gibberish, fluff, in telling us what PV the party’s will get at GE. It’s just sheer logic Ben, with the LLG only creeping to upper 60s in the Trussterfuck, and back town to lower 60s now, not far off it was before hand it’s roundabout out there, the swing you see is just fluff, nor for real - the Tories could go up a mere 2, the greens 3 and Libdems dems 4 and that lead over Tories drop by nearly ten - telling you nothing about wether that is good poll for Tories or not, in fact mislead you, ditto other way Tories gain two, greens and Lib Dem drop three between them to Labour and the lead actually grows. But that would be good poll for Tories Ben. The only thing to watch for in this situation is the Tory poll share.
And know your companies. two 29s from Kantor and Opinium and a 27 from Techne Is dissapointing for Sunak - omnisis and Mori putting Tory’s at 29 great for Tories bad for Labour in this present context.
One of those BBC news items that is difficult to make head or tail of without further information: Eton College has apologised after it was claimed girls visiting from a nearby state school were subjected to misogynistic language and racial slurs. The school told the BBC a number of its pupils had been "sanctioned" after an investigation following an incident during a speech by Nigel Farage. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-63683667
At a guess, Farage was making a speech, got heckled by the girls, and the boys retaliated by insulting them. But it's only a guess because the report is so minimal.
Fans will not be allowed to buy alcohol around World Cup stadiums, Sky News understands.
The U-turn comes ahead of the tournament's opening game in Qatar on Sunday.
LOL. Your turn FIFA - postpone the first match?
Sequels are rarely better than the original, but the sequel to Fyre Festival is really shaping up to be a humdinger.
I was going to say that Qatar could use the World Cup to announce themselves to the world, welcome everyone with open arms, and have their own massive Glastonbury Festival in the desert - much as I’ve witnessed from the UAE in the past couple of decades.
But instead, it looks like the mullahs are still in charge, and we’ll be instead watching the Fyre Festival.
I was wined and dined by a Qatari firm in London back in 2017 about a job opportunity. Spectacular pay, and the lifestyle presented was extraordinarily appealing - hard work, but a stunning home, exquisite hotel bars, and a job where my skills would be really valued.
I was all ready to sign on the dotted line, then the UAE diplomatic crisis kicked off, the Qatari stock market crashed and the job offer fell through. I would have signed in a heartbeat back in 2017 - but knowing what I know now, I wouldn't go out there for double the money.
This is a PR disaster for Qatar, and it hasn't even started yet.
That little diplomatic spat caused huge problems for Qatar. Many of the expats working there were employed by UAE companies, because no-one wanted to be on a Qatari visa where your employer basically owns you, and the wives wanted to live in Dubai. That stopped overnight, with thousands of contractors being withdrawn, and construction sites suspended for over a year. The World Cup sites eventually got going again, with massive wages having to be paid to the senior contractors. Thousands of construction managers will now be enjoying retirement in their 40s, having built the WC stadia and hotels.
Yup. The money they were offering to move out there was spectacular - retirement in a decade kind of money.
One red flag, however, was when I was searching on Qatari real estate websites for a place to live. I put in my price bracket (massive, obvs) but in amongst the glittering penthouses were several uh... other properties in the same price bracket. Turns out for the same amount of money pcm, I could rent a bunkhouse fitting up to 40 "workers". Pictures were included. Slave galleys sprung to mind.
Sometimes I wonder why it's all so visible - then I realise - it's because they genuinely don't see anything wrong with this kind of socioeconomic model.
And that is why the world cup is going to be such a disaster. Most tinpot countries build potemkin villages because they *know* how to present themselves to the outside world. Qatar presents itself as it is, and is proud of what it is.
Chaos will ensue.
Yes, it's quite striking the way - even with the eyes of the world upon them - they aren't covering up behaviour which the rest of the world might disapprove of. My inference is that they are so disconnected from the outside world that they absolutely don't see why the rest of the world might look askance at this. See also the goons stopping the Danish TV crew from filming.
People bang on about woke.
But here is a real difference - in many countries, there isn't a narrative of "our evil ancestors did X". They are in the Ra Ra We Are The Bestest mode. They see nothing in their past or present to be ashamed of.
In addition, since they have nothing to be ashamed of, their culture and religion is, of course, The Best In The World. Meaning that everyone else is somewhere between a poor, benighted, uncultured rube and an actual Heretic.
Having been the best in the world at colonialism we are now the best in the world at admitting it was wrong? That's a nice thought but I'm not sure it's true. Not the 2nd bit anyway.
It's not about being best at admitting the past. Even acknowledging it is a start.
Haven't you actually listened to some locals when you've travelled?
It is quite interesting to hear people from cultures where They Have No Doubt. And they see The Doubt in the West as pathetic and evidence of our manifest decline. Rather than a mature response to the past.
I can't say I've noticed that particularly. Are we sure this isn't a view gleaned from the 'muscular right' commentariat masquerading as personal experience?
Try talking to people in Saudi Arabia, for example. Lots of “Our current leaders have made mistakes” - but absolutely no idea of being responsible for anything bad in the past. Colonialism was only done to them etc.
It’s not that they have changed - we have. Progressed that is. Many countries live in their public discourse at about the stage when Churchill wrote of the funeral of Queen Victoria - “…the old world in it’s glory, fair to see”
They see themselves as the unambiguously Good Guys.
That’s the thing about progress. It means leaving the old world behind. Progressing to a new one. A better one, we hope.
Well I'd have to go to Saudi Arabia to do that. Not on the agenda atm. First Amsterdam, then a Greek island, then we'll see about it. But I get your point. Countries should own their history not just glorify the good and bat way the bad. Also agree we are better at this than we used to be.
However I'm always struck by the amount of "grand perspective" when it comes to us talking about the British Empire. There is much comparing with other imperial episodes from ancient history, much musing on how the consequences for the colonised weren’t all negative, etc etc, and that's all fine and dandy, however the ticket price for this imo should be the recognition of its malign fundamentals - ie an exploitative racist endeavour on a massive scale with correspondingly toxic legacy. I think this plain fact should be acknowledged sometimes without straining to “contextualise”.
It reminds me a little of Jeremy Corbyn and his jewish problem. Some straight talking was needed but he simply couldn’t deliver it.
“Do you condemn antisemitism, Mr Corbyn?” “I condemn all forms of racism.” “Is that a yes?” “I condemn all forms of racism.” “Including antisemitism?” “Antisemitism is racism and I condemn all forms of racism. For example the Palestinians have been ...”
And he's up and off and running.
The impression (fair or not) is he just doesn’t get it with antisemitism. It’s the same with the British Empire imo if you can’t say it was wicked and wrong without in the same breath crowbarring in some big picture rationalization.
Challenge for people there.
Because calling the British Empire "wicked and wrong" is a stupid category error, made by middlebrow virtue signalling idiots like you
Was the Roman Empire "wicked and wrong"? No, It is daft to call it that
What about the evil Hittite empire? Why aren't the Hittites apologising? And the Mughals? What about the Phoenicians and the Macedonians? The Incan empire was a disgrace. It is time for the Incans to pay reparations
The British Empire was a mighty tide in the affairs of men, which has now retreated. Like any enormous tide, it did things good and bad. Drowned some, lifted others, changed the lands it left behind. It has no morality positive or negative
Step 1 - An acknowledgement it was wicked and wrong. Which it obviously was.
Step 2 - An interesting and learned (on a good day) discussion about it.
My point is how many people cannot do Step 1. It's either straight to Step 2 or it's toys out of pram.
Like you here. You've gone straight to Step 2 and if I push you to do Step 1 it'll be toys out of pram. I know it will. So I won't.
Go on then, answer my question. Was the Roman Empire wicked and wrong?
See, you're doing exactly what I'm talking about. You're doing a Corbyn. Let's stay on OUR colonialism. It was ours after all and was rather more recent than the Romans. Let's stay on that just for a second before we go roaming off.
Back to Step 1. Ok, you don't like "wicked and wrong" because it doesn't sound highbrow enough. Fine. I'm happy to use my alternative, slightly more wonky wording.
So can we both sign up to saying the British Empire was an exploitative racist endeavour on a massive scale with correspondingly toxic legacy?
I already have so I've done Step 1. If you do the same you'll have done it too and then bingo we're into the big nuanced discussion (which can include the Romans if you like) and the world's our oyster.
You can't answer my question because you know it makes your argument look ridiculous. Because your argument IS ridiculous. You cannot judge grand historical movements using the precise morality obtaining in the head of @kinabalu off of PB.com on November 18, 2022. A morality which will no doubt change with the seasons of the Wokeness, as that is what people like you do
Kuntibula: Can we 2 British chaps at least agree on the basics that the British Empire, OUR Empire, quite recent in history, was an exploitative racist endeavour on a massive scale with a correspondingly toxic legacy?
Leon: What about the Romans?
Try and answer my question about the Romans. Because it will reveal the absurdity of your argument
I'm actually trying to help you, here. Trying to broaden your mind beyond this sterile leftist Wokethink. Try new thoughts! Fresh concepts!
I know you're a retired accountant, but still
CHARTERED accountant.
Look, this is silly. I'm fine to say ye olde ancient empires of others (eg of Rome) were wicked and wrong. But I was in first with my Step 1 on the British Empire - which in any case should be easier to cope with since it's OURS and far more recent.
So, you do that, on the British, nice and clear, then I'll type out mine on the Roman.
Then we're off to the races on all this stuff.
OK, I believe it is comically ridiculous to apply a myopic black-and-white contemporary THAT IS GOOD BUT THIS IS BAD morality to enormous historical events which took place over centuries
It is as ridiculous to say the British Empire was wicked and wrong as it is ridiculous to say the Ottoman or Roman or Macedonian empires were wicked and wrong. It's like saying the Industrial Revolution was "cruel". It's like saying the move to agriculture from hunter gathering was "an error". It's like saying the sky is "big" or the Moon is "far away". It is the mental act of a knave
It's about understanding the fundamental nature of what we're discussing. A framing. Risk of much waffle otherwise.
Stet
In general, I'd say there are a lot more grey hats than black hats in history. If we "enjoyed" the standard of living, and generally more violent circumstances, of people who lived hundreds of years ago, we would behave in exactly the same way as they did. It would be extremely arrogant to think otherwise.
Yep. Long and complex, history is. But this undeniable fact doesn't mean taking a neutral moral view on everything apart from binary extremities like the Nazis and the Virgin Mary. And my initial observation - illustrated perfectly by the response - was merely that I'm struck by how many people either can't acknowledge the malign fundamentals of our colonialism, or can't do so without plunging into "context" in the same post.
Maybe you can though. Because you do surprise me sometimes.
I agree with Jan Morris. There was good, bad, and ugly. Chattel slave trading was wicked by any measure. So, were the actions of Robert Clive and his associates. Ditto the massacre of Tasmanian aborigines.
But, do I think that the creation of new nations comprising (in total) hundreds of people, living prosperous and free lives, was overall, a bad thing? No. Do I think that the actions of the Royal Navy, in the 19th century, in terms of suppressing piracy and slaving, were bad? No. Do I think a man like James Brooke materially improved the lives of Sarawak's people? Undoubtedly.
An unpleasant paradox of empire was that the more that colonies moved towards self-government, quite often minorities and indigenous peoples who had received at least some protection from colonial authorities, got a much worse time of it.
Ok. But I'm talking about its essence. What it was all about at its core. Being the oppression and exploitation by 'us' of other people and places. It was huge and longlasting, with consequences (good bad and neither) to fill many books, and allowing many viable takes, but this doesn't mean it didn't have a core essence you can detect and have a view on.
Was the creation of England (or other European nations) fundamentally malign? After all, it involved a variety of North Western European tribes fighting their way into the country, and vying for dominance.
I think few of us would take that view.
Possibly. But why strain back into ancient times to find (in any case not very) equivalents rather than just looking at the essence of the quite recent, massive in scale, British Empire? Why not acknowledge its fundamental nature (malign) as a useful framing for discussing its complexities? This brings clarity. It's not a dumbing down.
If you think New Zealand is a good thing, which I do, then it’s hard to denounce the British Empire as a unmitigated evil.
I prefer to think that there good and bad bits, just like any country or indeed human enterprise.
I'm not saying Empire was an unmitigated evil. Hardly anything is and Empire certainly wasn't. What I'm saying is its fundamental essence was malign. That said, some positive consequences ensued (like NZ and you if you like!). However the key there is "that said". People seem unable to say it. Head in sand, this is, imo. Avoidance of an uncomfortable truth.
How and why was it’s fundamental essence malign?
Are you referring to its anti-democratic nature, in which case is every society in history pre circa 1850 “fundamentally malign”?
The subjugation and exploitation of other people and places. The greed and white supremacy racism which lay at the heart of the enterprise and fuelled it. So surely 'malign in essence' is fair. None of which is to say uniquely so, or even especially so, compared to the imperialism of others, or that it didn't have some positive consequences.
Most 19th century abolitionists were racists, in our terms. A lot of them thought it would be a good thing if freed blacks were sent to Liberia and Sierra Leone. Scarcely any of them thought of blacks and whites enjoying equal rights. But, I don't think that taints their abolitionism.
I agree with both these points, frankly.
Lincoln’s journey from simply advocating stopping expansion of slavery to abolition to advocating black voting* is an interesting study in this.
Though according to black contemporaries he never treated them as other than people, so his journey through those stages was probably easier than it would have been for one of the many racist anti-slavery types.
Keir Starmer accepts £55bn 'black hole' calculation - BBC
I wouldn’t accept anything from this OBR - who picks them, appoints them, and pays the wages of this vital independent link between the bs of politicians and our ears.
One of those BBC news items that is difficult to make head or tail of without further information: Eton College has apologised after it was claimed girls visiting from a nearby state school were subjected to misogynistic language and racial slurs. The school told the BBC a number of its pupils had been "sanctioned" after an investigation following an incident during a speech by Nigel Farage. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-63683667
At a guess, Farage was making a speech, got heckled by the girls, and the boys retaliated by insulting them. But it's only a guess because the report is so minimal.
According to AP, number of Republicans elected or leading = 222 versus Democrats = 213
So assuming these numbers hold AND also that all 213 Dems vote together, for someone NOT Nancy Pelosi, then Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Spin) will need minimum of 214 out of 222 to be elected Speaker.
According to Politico, Rep Reps announcing they will NOT vote for McCarthy = 3 = Andy Biggs AZ, Matt Gaetz FL and Matt Rosendale MT.
Plus 1 more, Virgil Goode VA, has told reporters he's a definite probably not.
So IF there are 4 who won't vote for KMcC, then his ceiling is 218 as I type this drivel.
My point is NOT that a Democrat is gonna get elected the next Speaker - hardly!
Instead, it seems entirely possible that McCarthy may NOT be able to seal the deal with his own "conference".
In that case (which I am NOT predicting) then logical GOP candidate for Speaker might be: > Steve Scalise of the Great Pelican State of Louisiana.
After the next general election the economy will be Labour's problem
You are both talking gibberish.
Give me you Lab and Con vote shares at the next general election, and you will see when you stop to think about it, you are giving me vote shares nothing like these current polls.
After the next general election the economy will be Labour's problem
You are both talking gibberish.
Give me you Lab and Con vote shares at the next general election, and you will see when you stop to think about it, you are giving me vote shares nothing like these current polls.
Polls are a snapshot for the moment which is why Opinium's swingback is a little bit silly.
But can't decide whether to allow Trump back, according to one 'tweet' on that page.
You have to laugh at the rubbish people post on Twitter: Elon Musk spent $44 Billion on Twitter. The World's population is 8 billion. He could have given each person $5 billion and still have money leftover. I feel like a cheque for $5 billion would be life changing for most people. Yet he wasted it all on Twitter.
8 billion times 5 billion is 40 billion for some people, I suppose.
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One of those BBC news items that is difficult to make head or tail of without further information: Eton College has apologised after it was claimed girls visiting from a nearby state school were subjected to misogynistic language and racial slurs. The school told the BBC a number of its pupils had been "sanctioned" after an investigation following an incident during a speech by Nigel Farage. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-63683667
At a guess, Farage was making a speech, got heckled by the girls, and the boys retaliated by insulting them. But it's only a guess because the report is so minimal.
I would be suspicious about alleged racial slurs given Eton has pupils from all over the world, including Asia and Africa
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It does amuse me that 60+ bus passes, freedom cards etc are acceptable but a young persons railcard is not.
I'm very disappointed not to see my Dennis the Menace Fan Club card, badges, and wallet included on the list. D.I.N.G.
Surprised not to see Tory party membership card on the list TBH.
This gets ever more ridiculous. A cursory glance at other nations voting requirements suggests it’s common to need some form of ID. If people cannot be bothered to ensure they have something from the wide range of options to allow them to vote then I don’t think they should have the feckin vote. It’s not hard.
One of those BBC news items that is difficult to make head or tail of without further information: Eton College has apologised after it was claimed girls visiting from a nearby state school were subjected to misogynistic language and racial slurs. The school told the BBC a number of its pupils had been "sanctioned" after an investigation following an incident during a speech by Nigel Farage. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-63683667
At a guess, Farage was making a speech, got heckled by the girls, and the boys retaliated by insulting them. But it's only a guess because the report is so minimal.
I would be suspicious about alleged racial slurs given Eton has pupils from all over the world, including Asia and Africa
Yes of course. On that basis no one living in Britain could ever come out with a racial slur. Thank you HYUFD for your quite unique insights.
Am now gonna take a break from following ongoing election returns (federal, state & local) to watch a rerun of "Forged in Fire" currently my fav "reality show" featuring blacksmiths making a wide variety of lethal weapons.
My guess is that three-quarters of the contestants (at least) voted for Trump, not once, but twice.
Strangely (or rather not) the non-winners on this show do NOT bewail and bemoan there fate, much less blame it on fraud and conspiracy.
Because they have WAY too much self-respect for that kind of rat-poop.
OK, just caught end of episode of "Forged in Fire"
Final challenge: forging (in a good way) really wild looking sword with sharp curved hook in front and spike sticking out backwards, with "grip" cut out of the blade. Funky.
Margin of victory was VERY close. Fellow who did NOT win, was obviously an intense person AND by nature a sore looser.
Yet he accepted the the verdict of the judges, like a regular guy: without false humor, but with self-respect.
One of those BBC news items that is difficult to make head or tail of without further information: Eton College has apologised after it was claimed girls visiting from a nearby state school were subjected to misogynistic language and racial slurs. The school told the BBC a number of its pupils had been "sanctioned" after an investigation following an incident during a speech by Nigel Farage. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-63683667
At a guess, Farage was making a speech, got heckled by the girls, and the boys retaliated by insulting them. But it's only a guess because the report is so minimal.
You can't buy class.
Surely most public school pupils are buying class? They’re buying Maths class, English class, Latin class, Fox Hunting class etc etc…
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It does amuse me that 60+ bus passes, freedom cards etc are acceptable but a young persons railcard is not.
I'm very disappointed not to see my Dennis the Menace Fan Club card, badges, and wallet included on the list. D.I.N.G.
Surprised not to see Tory party membership card on the list TBH.
This gets ever more ridiculous. A cursory glance at other nations voting requirements suggests it’s common to need some form of ID. If people cannot be bothered to ensure they have something from the wide range of options to allow them to vote then I don’t think they should have the feckin vote. It’s not hard.
You're forgetting that other countries have ID cards as standard anyway, mostly.
Passport issued by the UK, any of the Channel Islands, the Isle of Man, a British Overseas Territory, an EEA state or a Commonwealth country Photographic driver’s licence issued by the UK, Channel Islands, the Isle of Man, or an EEA state (including provisional) European Economic Area (EEA) photographic ID Card UK Biometric Residence Permit An identity card bearing the Proof of Age Standards Scheme hologram (PASS card)* A Blue Badge Oyster 60+ Card A concessionary travel pass funded by HM Government or local authority**
It does amuse me that 60+ bus passes, freedom cards etc are acceptable but a young persons railcard is not.
I'm very disappointed not to see my Dennis the Menace Fan Club card, badges, and wallet included on the list. D.I.N.G.
Surprised not to see Tory party membership card on the list TBH.
This gets ever more ridiculous. A cursory glance at other nations voting requirements suggests it’s common to need some form of ID. If people cannot be bothered to ensure they have something from the wide range of options to allow them to vote then I don’t think they should have the feckin vote. It’s not hard.
It all seems very complicated.
Why don't we take a lead out of Putin's book? Just send the police round to ask whether people agree with the present government remaining in office, or whether they want to go down to the station to explain why not.
One of those BBC news items that is difficult to make head or tail of without further information: Eton College has apologised after it was claimed girls visiting from a nearby state school were subjected to misogynistic language and racial slurs. The school told the BBC a number of its pupils had been "sanctioned" after an investigation following an incident during a speech by Nigel Farage. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-63683667
At a guess, Farage was making a speech, got heckled by the girls, and the boys retaliated by insulting them. But it's only a guess because the report is so minimal.
You can't buy class.
I wish we could buy a rest from sodding Eton. And Farage, come to that, but mainly Eton. It is worse than Oxford for getting pointless news coverage.
A strong relationship with the EU without greaking out that it meant Brexit was being undermined would show considerable growth in our public policy and discourse.
Indeed, but that Tweet was posted by a Telegraph journalist who is abso-fucking-lutely freaking the fuck out over it...
I think I'm the biggest Brexit fan on the board, and I'm fully on board with a stronger relationship with Europe.
On the other hand, I am not sure that Government Ministers often appeared on the Today programme back in the days of Jack De Manio in the late 50s and early to mid 60s. I have never felt that political parties should jump to the tune of the broadcasters. The fact that the latter wish to put on a particular programme imposes no obligation on parties to appear on them. I feel the same way re-General Election debates - the parties should please themselves.
Avoiding the media makes sense when you are comfortable ahead and are nervous about things going wrong.
Avoiding the media when you are hugely behind and really need something to change the narrative... That's another matter.
The government hiding from the media might also mean a return to that 20th Century phenomenon, the rentaquote MP, the backbencher happy to talk about anything to get on the news. My guess is HMG will back down, and blame an Australian consultant for dreaming this up.
Polls good for the Tory’s today - Mori is a Labour friendly pollster, so no great shakes for Labour from that one - pre budget but still useful as the next one will have all the post budget built in for comparison, Omnisis always report Tory share too low, and 28 from Delta in post budget poll is a solid poll for Tory share.
You're being ironic, right?
No. Once you study polls Ben you get to know which firms are pro this or that in their methodology. If the next three polls were two 29s from Kantor and Opinium and a 27 from Techne I wouldn’t hesitate calling it disaster for Sunak.
Haha. Leads over 20% a disaaaaster darling! You are the Craig Revel Horwood of polling analysis.
You know I was referring to the Tory share not lead, because with Labour gobbling up Green and Libdem the Labour leads are gibberish, fluff, in telling us what PV the party’s will get at GE. It’s just sheer logic Ben, with the LLG only creeping to upper 60s in the Trussterfuck, and back town to lower 60s now, not far off it was before hand it’s roundabout out there, the swing you see is just fluff, nor for real - the Tories could go up a mere 2, the greens 3 and Libdems dems 4 and that lead over Tories drop by nearly ten - telling you nothing about wether that is good poll for Tories or not, in fact mislead you, ditto other way Tories gain two, greens and Lib Dem drop three between them to Labour and the lead actually grows. But that would be good poll for Tories Ben. The only thing to watch for in this situation is the Tory poll share.
And know your companies. two 29s from Kantor and Opinium and a 27 from Techne Is dissapointing for Sunak - omnisis and Mori putting Tory’s at 29 great for Tories bad for Labour in this present context.
Following the Con share of the vote is indeed not a bad line to take but you also MUST consider the context.
Ipsos puts Con vote up 3 to 29 but that is in comparison to the worst days of Truss. A 3% bounce since then is nowhere near what the Govt needs. It isn't winning an election with less than 40, probably not with less than 42/43.
The LDs may well out-perform these polls (though that is far from certain) but I suspect the Greens will under-perform them. That combined LD and Green share is generally low teens which is about where I would expect it to be. Will it be higher at the GE? Would all those notional extra votes come from Lab?
The Ref/UKIP share is interesting. The flurry of hand-wringing over immigration seems to have done little but push Con voters over to the Reform/UKIP fringe. Who could have guessed it?
RW has Cons up 1% on last time but down 1% on a week ago. I'll give it a little longer but stabilising in the high 20s is again not what the COns need or require.
Techne has the Cons down 2% in a week, down 1% on a fortnight ago. Should I repeat myself here.
Omnisis is down 5% in a week, down 6% on a fortnight. They are new pollsters and the older poll smells of an out-lier but that trend still looks clear. Stagnation in the Con vote at best.
Con share of the vote is currently high 20s. With a fair wind and a dynamic election campaign by Mr Sunak could they get to the high 30s. No doubt they could but they are two long-shot variables and the Cons would still lose.
There is time for a Con recovery but that time will run through their fingers surprisingly fast. Mr Sunak needs to get a grip, stop making mistakes and clean house of some of the rubbish still hanging around in the Cabinet like bad smells
I believe we have some medical expertise on here , and would be grateful for an informed view. I have a good friend who has suffered from depression and anxiety over many years. For the latter he has relied on low doses of Diazepam of which he takes fewer than 50 tablets a year. As a layman that strikes me as using that medication fairly sparingly . However, his GP apparently has concerns re-addiction and has informed him he will only prescribe 20 every six months. This has added to his sense of anxiety - and I am concerned that he is now consulting websites with a view to ordering Barbiturates in the event of the GP denying him the Diazepam - Valium - when needed. There was a time back in the 1960s and 1970s when GPs quite regularly prescribed Barbiturates to patients , but they have long been banned on account of the risks of addiction and overdose.Effectively they are now illicit - but can be acquired at the cost of several hundred pounds on the Internet. I have strongly advised my friend Not to go down this road - and to be fair it seems clear he would only do so as a last resort. I am inclined to question the GP's judgement here - in that the risk of a mild addiction to Diazepam is a minor matter when compared to becoming reliant on Barbiturates. Any sensible comments would be appreciated
*This is not a post with any medical advise or expertise.*
Generic valium is pennies per pill on the street. I think they're called Benzos - a documentary about it was on Radio 4 when I was driving home the other day. I'm not suggesting that he goes down this route, but he shouldn't be spending hundreds of pounds at any rate.
Passport issued by the UK, any of the Channel Islands, the Isle of Man, a British Overseas Territory, an EEA state or a Commonwealth country Photographic driver’s licence issued by the UK, Channel Islands, the Isle of Man, or an EEA state (including provisional) European Economic Area (EEA) photographic ID Card UK Biometric Residence Permit An identity card bearing the Proof of Age Standards Scheme hologram (PASS card)* A Blue Badge Oyster 60+ Card A concessionary travel pass funded by HM Government or local authority**
It does amuse me that 60+ bus passes, freedom cards etc are acceptable but a young persons railcard is not.
I'm very disappointed not to see my Dennis the Menace Fan Club card, badges, and wallet included on the list. D.I.N.G.
Surprised not to see Tory party membership card on the list TBH.
This gets ever more ridiculous. A cursory glance at other nations voting requirements suggests it’s common to need some form of ID. If people cannot be bothered to ensure they have something from the wide range of options to allow them to vote then I don’t think they should have the feckin vote. It’s not hard.
As I remember New Labour's ID/voting card plan it was going to cost between about 80 and 300 quid per person. Assuming the civil service is aiming for ID cards again and this is just a stop-gap to get people ready for 'papers, please' then that's quite an expensive way of being intrusive. Not to mention the multi-thousand-pound fines if you didn't keep it up to date.
And for reference - the only ID I have that matches anything in the list is an out-of-date passport. No idea if that would count or if I'd have to pay more money for the privilege of electing people who charged me money to elect them.
Which seems like the opposite way bribes are supposed to work.
"Vote for me and I'll reduce the cost of your ID card by £10..."
On ID for voting, as well as whether or not somebody has ID I think there's another issue that will depress turnout. Namely, people who have ID but arrive at the polling station and then realise that they've forgotten to bring their ID; for example, they've left it at home and they're voting on their way home from work. Will they go home to collect it and return to the polling station? I doubt it.
Very true. It’s certainly not going to increase turnout.
Of course, all this washes over the likes of longtime Voter ID obsessive Morris Dancer, a man who freely admits he rarely leaves his own neighbourhood, doesn’t like going out and has never been to London.
For people who have busier lives, voter ID is another brick in the wall.
Comments
Due to his longtime residence in NYC, combined with his support for variety of federal, state and especially local candidates over his decades infesting New York County, City and State, reckon that 45's spent more time as a "official" Democrat than as a certifiable (in one sense anyway) Republican.
status quo = 'fewer than 50' per annum
New situation = 40 tablets pa (albeit divided in two batches)
So, unless something has been misunderstood, your friend seems to be fretting about a maximum 20% decrease. That's not a lot. But of course he is not in the most sanguine mood anyway; and he may feel he is too restricted.
I wonder if Richard Tice and Nigel Farage might change the name back from Reform UK to the Brexit Party for the next general election. It must be tempting - and would seriously alarm the Tories.
Sign up for free: http://telegraph.co.uk/politicsnewsletter https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1593666027434479616/photo/1
"Kari"
With Post-Election count substituting for Prom Night.
Pronounced "Mob-Gah"?
The withdrawal is unpleasant and prolonged. Tho it is nowhere near as bad as a withdrawal from Xanax (which I have also experienced) - that can send you half mad, or even kill you, in extremis
If your friend is taking fewer than 50 pills a year, then that is less than one a week. That's not a huge amount. However it depends if he is doing 5mg or 10mg, the two standard doses. Even if it is 10mg he will not have a massive habit and the withdrawal, if he stops, will likely be fairly tolerable
And as others have said going from under 50 a year to 40 a year is not a dramatic reduction
He absolutely should not go anywhere near barbiturates. They are terribly dangerous
If he needs to go online and buy pills why does he not simply buy more Diazepam? I'm not advising this, but it can be done, and a handful of extra diazepam pills are much less menacing then barbiturates
In the words of Ralph Fiennes: 'Well this is going well.'
Latest of quite a few not so veiled swipes from Pompeo (Trump's former Sec of State mulling a presidential run).
Keep an eye out for plenty more of this stuff.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1593669240850096134
https://twitter.com/mikepompeo/status/1593652158754324480?s=20&t=O4_MfOb4UFx4LsnUCCfj_g
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/18/mike-bloomberg-forced-to-apologise-after-boris-johnson-speech-criticising-china?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1593589451434983425?s=20&t=teT5RAzsIweIL-GenTNFgQ
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1593580730877202435?s=20&t=teT5RAzsIweIL-GenTNFgQ
After the next general election the economy will be Labour's problem
Unlike the higher earning globalists who generally voted Remain
That said, do agree he is likely to be re-elected with all the votes are counted.
43% to 42% in the same poll
Any idea how many countries round the world do not ask for voter ID and how many do?
They meant to say they were 'the party that likes the sound of money.'
86% of Biden voters would vote for him again v Trump, 84% would vote for Biden again v DeSantis
Because you did vote Remain and I’m intrigued to know if you’re a high earning globalist?
"The Guardian view on Jeremy Hunt’s autumn statement: setting a trap for Labour
The government wants voters to think the economic question is about reducing debt rather than Tory failure
It is easy to see why Mr Hunt thinks that as long as the issue is controlling inflation or reducing debt, rather than the failure of Tory economic management, it may be that the government has a chance to prosper. He knows that elections are fought not between conflicting answers to the same question, but rather between conflicting questions.
Yet Labour is not offering any competition for people’s thinking."
"Thinking", lol!
Whichever moron wrote this seems to be oblivious to the fact that Labour are way ahead in the polls and in addition can't work it out that it won't be "the economy" (whether in the form of good or bad management or "reducing debt") that the Tories campaign on in the next election.
The Chinese are offended? Oh dear. How sad. Never mind. Il n’a que la vérité qui blesse.
Bloomberg should be ashamed of himself for apologizing.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AEMWYOa7nJg
One thing I like about electoral politics, is that the twists and turns are continually bringing forward (and then often backward) unusual and interesting, if sometimes arresting or even appalling histories, personalities and trajectories.
For all her manifold faults, Lauren Boebert represents (in a fashion) millions of young(ish) women in America, who together with their husbands have built up their own small businesses, often with lots of ups and downs and etc., etc. along the way.
Newest example is US Representative-Elect Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez (WA03-D) of Stevenson, WA who along with her husband owns and operates an auto-body shop in Portland, OR just across the Columbia River.
Somewhat untypically, MGP is also the daughter of an immigrant AND a fifth-generation Washingtonian, who is a graduate of Reed College, which is one of the best-regarded small colleges in the USA.
BTW (and FYI) her hometown is county seat of Skamania County, large in size but quite small in population, famed for it's world-class wind surfing in the Columbia River Gorge.
One heard a national political hack burst out with laughter when Skamania (pronounced to rhyme, or chime, with "mania") was mentioned at an important meeting. Not a good look for him.
Subtitles have launched on GB News.
Then it would enact EU-wide laws against cruelty to animals, e.g. bans on cockfighting, foxhunting, bullfighting - and if Britain were still a member, on the barbaric killing of seagull chicks on Sula Sgeir in Scotland. ("Well the national government obviously wasn't going to do anything.")
My guess is that three-quarters of the contestants (at least) voted for Trump, not once, but twice.
Strangely (or rather not) the non-winners on this show do NOT bewail and bemoan there fate, much less blame it on fraud and conspiracy.
Because they have WAY too much self-respect for that kind of rat-poop.
Dan Newhouse is winning re-election in WA04 with 68% of the vote, against a Democrat in a very safe GOP seat; note that Newhouse beat out Trump Republican in primary to make Top Two general election (Dem came in first in primary because DN & nutbagger split the GOP vote).
We'll have you an editorial column in the Daily Express before you know it.
From a focus group in Leigh.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/18/sunak-and-hunt-out-of-touch-with-working-class-say-red-wall-voters
E.g. "- if R-squared value 0.3 < r < 0.5 this value is generally considered a weak or low effect size," - Moore et al. (2013), or Henseler (2009) proposed a rule of thumb for acceptable R2 with 0.75, 0.50, and 0.25 are described as substantial, moderate and weak respectively.
And know your companies. two 29s from Kantor and Opinium and a 27 from Techne Is dissapointing for Sunak - omnisis and Mori putting Tory’s at 29 great for Tories bad for Labour in this present context.
Oh.
Eton College has apologised after it was claimed girls visiting from a nearby state school were subjected to misogynistic language and racial slurs.
The school told the BBC a number of its pupils had been "sanctioned" after an investigation following an incident during a speech by Nigel Farage.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-63683667
At a guess, Farage was making a speech, got heckled by the girls, and the boys retaliated by insulting them. But it's only a guess because the report is so minimal.
Hmmm - it's not the 7th December (3 months and one day) yet, so I think he does.
Though according to black contemporaries he never treated them as other than people, so his journey through those stages was probably easier than it would have been for one of the many racist anti-slavery types.
*He was murdered for that.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1593673339826212864?t=3uO8MOtLjoxVtQcH3jrw4g&s=19
Super genius
So assuming these numbers hold AND also that all 213 Dems vote together, for someone NOT Nancy Pelosi, then Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Spin) will need minimum of 214 out of 222 to be elected Speaker.
According to Politico, Rep Reps announcing they will NOT vote for McCarthy = 3 = Andy Biggs AZ, Matt Gaetz FL and Matt Rosendale MT.
Plus 1 more, Virgil Goode VA, has told reporters he's a definite probably not.
So IF there are 4 who won't vote for KMcC, then his ceiling is 218 as I type this drivel.
My point is NOT that a Democrat is gonna get elected the next Speaker - hardly!
Instead, it seems entirely possible that McCarthy may NOT be able to seal the deal with his own "conference".
In that case (which I am NOT predicting) then logical GOP candidate for Speaker might be:
> Steve Scalise of the Great Pelican State of Louisiana.
Give me you Lab and Con vote shares at the next general election, and you will see when you stop to think about it, you are giving me vote shares nothing like these current polls.
Elon Musk spent $44 Billion on Twitter. The World's population is 8 billion. He could have given each person $5 billion and still have money leftover. I feel like a cheque for $5 billion would be life changing for most people. Yet he wasted it all on Twitter.
8 billion times 5 billion is 40 billion for some people, I suppose.
Final challenge: forging (in a good way) really wild looking sword with sharp curved hook in front and spike sticking out backwards, with "grip" cut out of the blade. Funky.
Margin of victory was VERY close. Fellow who did NOT win, was obviously an intense person AND by nature a sore looser.
Yet he accepted the the verdict of the judges, like a regular guy: without false humor, but with self-respect.
Treasury is on the hook to cover losses on government debt held by the Bank of England
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/11/18/george-osborne-saddles-taxpayer-133bn-bill-accounting-trick/ (£££)
ETA I'm not sure how much this really matters or is just "funny money" transfers between the Bank and Treasury.
No flies on them.
It turns out that she's an invention of not her own, but her husband's
Apparently his nickname is Dyldo because he's called Dylan
And they all laughed at my 739 card with
wylliesAnd she doesn't mind if I tell people about those names
Neither does Santa in Reindeerland
Why don't we take a lead out of Putin's book? Just send the police round to ask whether people agree with the present government remaining in office, or whether they want to go down to the station to explain why not.
Again!
WHY DO WE NEED VOTER ID?
Still, we can still overanalyse fictional polls published at some undefined point in the future
Ipsos puts Con vote up 3 to 29 but that is in comparison to the worst days of Truss. A 3% bounce since then is nowhere near what the Govt needs. It isn't winning an election with less than 40, probably not with less than 42/43.
The LDs may well out-perform these polls (though that is far from certain) but I suspect the Greens will under-perform them. That combined LD and Green share is generally low teens which is about where I would expect it to be. Will it be higher at the GE? Would all those notional extra votes come from Lab?
The Ref/UKIP share is interesting. The flurry of hand-wringing over immigration seems to have done little but push Con voters over to the Reform/UKIP fringe. Who could have guessed it?
RW has Cons up 1% on last time but down 1% on a week ago. I'll give it a little longer but stabilising in the high 20s is again not what the COns need or require.
Techne has the Cons down 2% in a week, down 1% on a fortnight ago. Should I repeat myself here.
Omnisis is down 5% in a week, down 6% on a fortnight. They are new pollsters and the older poll smells of an out-lier but that trend still looks clear. Stagnation in the Con vote at best.
Con share of the vote is currently high 20s. With a fair wind and a dynamic election campaign by Mr Sunak could they get to the high 30s. No doubt they could but they are two long-shot variables and the Cons would still lose.
There is time for a Con recovery but that time will run through their fingers surprisingly fast. Mr Sunak needs to get a grip, stop making mistakes and clean house of some of the rubbish still hanging around in the Cabinet like bad smells
Generic valium is pennies per pill on the street. I think they're called Benzos - a documentary about it was on Radio 4 when I was driving home the other day. I'm not suggesting that he goes down this route, but he shouldn't be spending hundreds of pounds at any rate.
And for reference - the only ID I have that matches anything in the list is an out-of-date passport. No idea if that would count or if I'd have to pay more money for the privilege of electing people who charged me money to elect them.
Which seems like the opposite way bribes are supposed to work.
"Vote for me and I'll reduce the cost of your ID card by £10..."
A meat product grown in a lab has been cleared for human consumption for the first time.
The US safety agency, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), has given approval for cell-cultured chicken, after doing a "careful evaluation".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-63660488
Of course, all this washes over the likes of longtime Voter ID obsessive Morris Dancer, a man who freely admits he rarely leaves his own neighbourhood, doesn’t like going out and has never been to London.
For people who have busier lives, voter ID is another brick in the wall.