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Trump back up to a 36% betting chance for the GOP 2024 nomination – politicalbetting.com

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  • I’m so relaxed about the ‘size’ issue I couldn’t tell you how big mine is. All I can say is that it’s the largest that it’s ever been.
    A friend tells me the only time he has regretted owning a 75 inch tv was when he watched home made porn on it, shot in 4K HDR on an iPhone.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,189
    TOPPING said:

    You don't have to do any of those things. An identity card in most peoples' minds (rightly or wrongly) is needing to prove you are who you are apropos of nothing.
    The real problem with ID card proposals is the databases and linkages behind them.

    A non-driving license Driving License (
    kinabalu said:

    Yes, ok, you think and say so. But all systems need controls. Let's see what they are in this case. You seem to be ruling out ID cards on account of some spooky insight into the minds of those proposing them.
    It’s more that every time they are proposed, so far, the database bullshit is included.

    It’s not paranoia to expect something to happen that has happened 5+ times before.
    Sandpit said:

    You don’t need to commit a crime, merely be fitted up for one, by organisations like the Met Police, with their long history of fitting up innocent people only ever bringing guilty suspects to justice.
    “All suspects are guilty. Otherwise they wouldn’t be suspect.”
  • (I daresay to volunteer in such a place in a customer-facing now you'd need loads of background checks and training?)
    Yes. It’s called a DBS check, and Scotland’s
    Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill drives a coach and horses through it:

    https://sex-matters.org/posts/updates/scotland-identity-laundering/

    The “back lash” is not against trans people, but the activists who are promoting a “no debate” implementation that will weaken safeguards for biological women, and ignoring the serious medical complications for children (many of whom are autistic or will turn out gay) who are railroaded into a treatment pathway that will lead to a lifetime of sterility, inability to orgasm, medication and brittle bones, under the label of “affirmative care”.

    People like this: [VIDEO]:

    https://twitter.com/DGClarke1/status/1592842974924533760?s=20&t=1K-_Uy5E1ZynI-wLCl_zqQ

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,793
    eek said:

    Tell that to the woman who was raped in a single sex hospital ward https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/politics/hospital-says-patient-could-not-26506744
    This is clearly proving something to you but I'm not sure what it is.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,098
    🔺NEW: The word woman could be removed from NHS services in Scotland under new guidelines that propose shifting away from “gendered healthcare” https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/womens-clinics-could-be-renamed-under-new-trans-guidelines-ftbfd2rw3?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1668615010
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    edited November 2022
    Anyone know which popular song features these lines?

    And reading Maynard Keynes
    And I'm thinking about home and all that that means

    Never knew his name cropped up in a pop song. They obviously didn't realise his name was meant to rhyme with James not beans.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,098
    There's a room full of people in a parliament in Scotland who are about to make law on the understanding that someone like Rivers is either male, or trans, but cannot be both. And if they decided Rivers is male, could not tell you why they don't think Rivers is trans. https://twitter.com/berkeleyscanner/status/1592673698620002305
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    OllyT said:

    Already got money on HER
    Whitmer-Buttigieg is a great ticket.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,098

    Anyone know which popular song features these lines?

    And reading Maynard Keynes
    And I'm thinking about home and all that that means

    Never knew his name cropped up in a pop song. They obviously didn't realise his name was meant to rhyme with James not beans.

    Is it really a popular song?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Scott_xP said:

    🔺NEW: The word woman could be removed from NHS services in Scotland under new guidelines that propose shifting away from “gendered healthcare” https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/womens-clinics-could-be-renamed-under-new-trans-guidelines-ftbfd2rw3?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1668615010

    What a wonderful thing Scottish devolution has been.
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,535
    edited November 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Is it really a popular song?
    Dignity - Deacon Blue
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,098

    Dignity - Deacon Blue
    Indeed.

    BTW, this is fabulous, as are all the other episode

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p06bn23m
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,156
    kinabalu said:

    Que? You're not talking to someone who wants to shut down debate. I'm debating.

    Specifically I was just explaining why you might not see the parallel - being an assumption that other people view the issue as you do (which has no parallel to homophobia) when there are plenty out there whose anti-trans sentiments do have that parallel.

    "There is no homophobic parallel in how I feel about transgender people therefore I don't see that parallel."

    That was the essence of your post.
    I took the essence of the OP as being that anyone critical of trans ideology was in a similar position to homophobes in the 80s and early 90s. That's what I was responding to.
  • Mine is quite small, but I tell my wife that it looks bigger if you sit closer to it.

    Our neighbour has an enormous one. I can see it through the window.
    Some people can't help but show off.

    If he's not careful, some rogue will catch sight of it and try to grab it while he's out shopping or at the beach or whatever, and then where would he be?

    Mine is state of the art, but I keep it out of view except when I'm using it or when trusted friends pop round.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,539

    I’m so relaxed about the ‘size’ issue I couldn’t tell you how big mine is. All I can say is that it’s the largest that it’s ever been.
    Mine is at the point where I'm not sure I've got a tape measure that big.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,539
    Scott_xP said:
    You wait until they each claim expenses....
  • Some people can't help but show off.

    If he's not careful, some rogue will catch sight of it and try to grab it while he's out shopping or at the beach or whatever, and then where would he be?

    Mine is state of the art, but I keep it out of view except when I'm using it or when trusted friends pop round.
    It's when people boast about the size of their i-phone that I begin to doubt their (or my) sanity.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,395
    edited November 2022
    Trans prisoner attacks man in male prison. Prisons Scotland’s solution? Transfer to the womens’ prison….

    Dolatowski has been transferred to the female estate at Cornton Vale after attacking a male prisoner in the male estate at Polmont.

    https://twitter.com/NoXYinXXprisons/status/1592889224944005120
  • Dignity - Deacon Blue
    I've always thought that was a very Thatcherite song... really heavy "property owning democracy" vibe.

    I mean, it's a good song, and have no idea if that in any way reflects the intention. It's just always hit my ear that way.
  • It's when people boast about the size of their i-phone that I begin to doubt their (or my) sanity.
    There was a time when smaller was preferred. Nobody wanted to be seen with a huge, unsightly bulge in their trousers.

    All different now, I'm afraid. I hate seeing people getting them out and playing with them on the train.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,098

    I've always thought that was a very Thatcherite song... really heavy "property owning democracy" vibe.

    I mean, it's a good song, and have no idea if that in any way reflects the intention. It's just always hit my ear that way.
    I think Rickie Ross would be quite offended by that
  • Any “shaming investigation” that starts with “U.K. Law” sounds like it hasn’t done its homework….

    The New York Times has just run a shaming investigation into the UK legal principle of “joint enterprise”, under which people can be charged for crimes they were nowhere near.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/15/uk-joint-enterprise-convictions-injustice-supreme-court-racially-biased
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    Anyone know which popular song features these lines?

    And reading Maynard Keynes
    And I'm thinking about home and all that that means

    Never knew his name cropped up in a pop song. They obviously didn't realise his name was meant to rhyme with James not beans.

    Scritti Politti / Green Gartside famously used to name-check philosophers in his pop songs.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,172

    I've always thought that was a very Thatcherite song... really heavy "property owning democracy" vibe.

    I mean, it's a good song, and have no idea if that in any way reflects the intention. It's just always hit my ear that way.
    Don't really get the Thatcherite bit. It is a beautiful song about a decent man with a dream that, for once, comes off.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,295

    A friend tells me the only time he has regretted owning a 75 inch tv was when he watched home made porn on it, shot in 4K HDR on an iPhone.
    That'll teach ya!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,098
    DavidL said:

    It is a beautiful song about a decent man with a dream that, for once, comes off.

    Is there not some debate about that?

    Does the guy actually do it, or just dream about it?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,172
    Scott_xP said:

    Is there not some debate about that?

    Does the guy actually do it, or just dream about it?
    I wondered that too. But I like to think he got his boat and his freedom.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,745
    The name of the band Deacon Blue in turn comes from a brilliant song by Steely Dan. Whose name In turn comes from a strap on metal dildo described by William S Burroughs in “Naked Lunch”
  • BritTri just emailed AG athletes about how the new transgender policy will be implemented. Seems like a very good example of best practice that other sports could do well to follow



    https://twitter.com/SpiderJ/status/1592874945256001536
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,641

    I have watched that about 5 times since someone posted it up last night. Brilliant.
    There was a video of him a few years ago on stage at some promo event (I think in S.Korea) and he did a really very impressive impromptu dance on stage. You could almost hear the sound of the audience members fainting in the background.

    Sadly can't seem to find it now. I'm sure I didn't dream it. Fairly sure anyway...
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 509
    edited November 2022

    Any “shaming investigation” that starts with “U.K. Law” sounds like it hasn’t done its homework….

    The New York Times has just run a shaming investigation into the UK legal principle of “joint enterprise”, under which people can be charged for crimes they were nowhere near.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/15/uk-joint-enterprise-convictions-injustice-supreme-court-racially-biased

    The New York Times article in question: The continued use of joint enterprise is one example of a British tough-on-crime policy that has grown increasingly strident... Many of those tactics were imported from the 1990s war on drugs in the United States. But while American officials have reconsidered many criminal justice policies over the past decade, they have become an entrenched part of British politics... the latest official statistics show that national crime levels, including homicide, are actually lower than before the pandemic began in 2020. And overall, crime has been falling for decades.

    The New York Times, January 2022: In 2020, murders in the United States spiked more than 27 percent — the largest percentage increase in at least six decades. Last year, murders went up again. Those murders resulted in the deaths of thousands more Americans, and returned the U.S. to homicide rates not seen since the mid-1990s.... From 1991 to 2014, America’s murder rate plummeted by more than half.

    I'm not sure it's the UK who should feel shame here - perhaps it should be those in the US who reconsidered criminal justice policies, and those who encouraged them to do so, in a way that has lead to thousands of people dying violent deaths. Or perhaps it should be Zoe Williams, who apparently gets paid by the Guardian not to bother with basic pattern recognition.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548

    Any “shaming investigation” that starts with “U.K. Law” sounds like it hasn’t done its homework….

    The New York Times has just run a shaming investigation into the UK legal principle of “joint enterprise”, under which people can be charged for crimes they were nowhere near.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/15/uk-joint-enterprise-convictions-injustice-supreme-court-racially-biased

    I can think of worse legal principles.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,467
    Leon said:

    The name of the band Deacon Blue in turn comes from a brilliant song by Steely Dan. Whose name In turn comes from a strap on metal dildo described by William S Burroughs in “Naked Lunch”

    You'll be telling us next that Naked Lunch got their name from the book too.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,340
    edited November 2022
    Leon said:

    The name of the band Deacon Blue in turn comes from a brilliant song by Steely Dan. Whose name In turn comes from a strap on metal dildo described by William S Burroughs in “Naked Lunch”

    Well a deacon wearing one of those would be rather blue.

    As for the song, the world that formed Thatcher certainly had space for humble dignified work, saving your money and pottering round in a small boat in retirement.

    The forces Thatcher unleashed and rode didn't... And I wonder how much she understood what she did. Bits of her memoirs imply that she thought that accumulation of wealth would unleash civic philanthropy and it never happened on the scale it needed to.

    Maybe Thatcherism needed everyone to have a provincial methodist upbringing to work. Which it didn't. Which is a pity.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,172
    edited November 2022

    The New York Times article in question: The continued use of joint enterprise is one example of a British tough-on-crime policy that has grown increasingly strident... Many of those tactics were imported from the 1990s war on drugs in the United States. But while American officials have reconsidered many criminal justice policies over the past decade, they have become an entrenched part of British politics... the latest official statistics show that national crime levels, including homicide, are actually lower than before the pandemic began in 2020. And overall, crime has been falling for decades.

    The New York Times, January 2022: In 2020, murders in the United States spiked more than 27 percent — the largest percentage increase in at least six decades. Last year, murders went up again. Those murders resulted in the deaths of thousands more Americans, and returned the U.S. to homicide rates not seen since the mid-1990s.... From 1991 to 2014, America’s murder rate plummeted by more than half.

    I'm not sure it's the UK who should feel shame here.
    Nor I. The controversy is about "Give it to him Chris, let him have it" after which a policeman was shot dead. The person convicted on this basis was not exactly "nowhere near" the crime.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548

    Yes. It’s called a DBS check, and Scotland’s
    Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill drives a coach and horses through it:

    https://sex-matters.org/posts/updates/scotland-identity-laundering/

    The “back lash” is not against trans people, but the activists who are promoting a “no debate” implementation that will weaken safeguards for biological women, and ignoring the serious medical complications for children (many of whom are autistic or will turn out gay) who are railroaded into a treatment pathway that will lead to a lifetime of sterility, inability to orgasm, medication and brittle bones, under the label of “affirmative care”.

    People like this: [VIDEO]:

    https://twitter.com/DGClarke1/status/1592842974924533760?s=20&t=1K-_Uy5E1ZynI-wLCl_zqQ

    It's the attempt to take some complex details in specific areas and boil it down to a simplistic, binary view to apply to everything.

    I know the binary thing seems like an attempt at a joke, but it isn't.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,745
    May not like them, but these polls are increasingly hard to ignore


    In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?

    Right to Leave: 32% (-3)
    Wrong to Leave: 56% (+4)

    Via @YouGov, 9-10 Nov.
    Changes w/ 1-2 Nov.

    Largest EVER lead for 'Wrong to Leave' (polled since Aug 2016).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817
    DavidL said:

    Nor I. The controversy is about "Give it to him Chris, let him have it" after which a policeman was shot dead. The person convicted on this basis was not exactly "nowhere near" the crime.
    Or a religious fundamentalist egging on a fanatic to commit an act of terrorism without necessarily inciting violence directly.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,467
    Leon said:

    May not like them, but these polls are increasingly hard to ignore


    In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?

    Right to Leave: 32% (-3)
    Wrong to Leave: 56% (+4)

    Via @YouGov, 9-10 Nov.
    Changes w/ 1-2 Nov.

    Largest EVER lead for 'Wrong to Leave' (polled since Aug 2016).

    It's a pointless question though. A better question is should the UK apply to rejoin the EU.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    darkage said:

    Cummings has cited Musk's approach at Twitter as being an example to follow for public services (lol).

    I can't say I am a big fan of Elon Musk but I think what he is doing is ultimately fair given that he has spent 44 billion or whatever buying a business which has never really made any money. The people leaving Twitter are going to find lots of other opportunities where they will prefer the culture as they are highly skilled. Musk cannot carry around a bloated zombie corporate structure that is resistant to his legitimate objectives for the business. But having said all that, I would definitely not want to work there, and it might turn out to be the case that he struggles to find people willing to do so, given the nature of what Twitter does, it is different to Tesla and attracts different people.
    It made 1.4 billion dollars profit off of 3.4 billion revenue in 2019! That's not a marginal business.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,782
    Leon said:

    May not like them, but these polls are increasingly hard to ignore


    In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?

    Right to Leave: 32% (-3)
    Wrong to Leave: 56% (+4)

    Via @YouGov, 9-10 Nov.
    Changes w/ 1-2 Nov.

    Largest EVER lead for 'Wrong to Leave' (polled since Aug 2016).

    Birthing pains, or post-natal depression?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,256
    Leon said:

    May not like them, but these polls are increasingly hard to ignore


    In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?

    Right to Leave: 32% (-3)
    Wrong to Leave: 56% (+4)

    Via @YouGov, 9-10 Nov.
    Changes w/ 1-2 Nov.

    Largest EVER lead for 'Wrong to Leave' (polled since Aug 2016).

    A bit late for buyers remorse now.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,346
    Scott_xP said:

    Is it really a popular song?
    One of my favourites. I also love 'chocolate girl' and 'Fergus sings the blues'. A great band.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    The football used in the match where Maradona scored his "hand of god" goal has failed to sell at auction.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2022

    Any “shaming investigation” that starts with “U.K. Law” sounds like it hasn’t done its homework….

    The New York Times has just run a shaming investigation into the UK legal principle of “joint enterprise”, under which people can be charged for crimes they were nowhere near.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/15/uk-joint-enterprise-convictions-injustice-supreme-court-racially-biased

    This from the country that charged a pair of people with murder because a cop killed a child under the basis of "Transferred Intent".

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/16/us/fanta-bility-police-shooting.html

    Article also points out the dystopian "Felony Murder" rule

    In one case, in 2019 in Phoenix, police officers pulled over a car because they suspected the four occupants of committing a robbery. When one of them fled, the police shot him dead. The three others were charged with murder, while the police were not held accountable.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,793
    edited November 2022

    Birthing pains, or post-natal depression?
    The "Terrible Twos", I suppose.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited November 2022
    That "right to leave" is strikingly similar to about the size of the Tory core vote they're falling back on.

    As a result of that, if I was Starmer I would be thinking very carefully about not having a referendum on SM membership. He's probably going to have to do it at some point I think, not least for economic reasons. The strapline will have to be something like : "this time we're being honest with you, unlike the unicorns of the more extreme Brexiters, and the confused prospectus before. Let's be honest about this : Do you want more European immigrants, to get our economic growth back ?"
  • kle4 said:

    It's the attempt to take some complex details in specific areas and boil it down to a simplistic, binary view to apply to everything.

    I know the binary thing seems like an attempt at a joke, but it isn't.
    Hence the fatuous simplistic slogans:

    Trans rights are human rights (who says otherwise, they just don’t get to trample biological women’s rights)

    Trans women are women
    Rather depends on what you mean. Socially? Fine. Biologically? No.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    edited November 2022

    Any “shaming investigation” that starts with “U.K. Law” sounds like it hasn’t done its homework….

    The New York Times has just run a shaming investigation into the UK legal principle of “joint enterprise”, under which people can be charged for crimes they were nowhere near.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/15/uk-joint-enterprise-convictions-injustice-supreme-court-racially-biased

    Can't read the NYT article and the Grauniad doesn't help much. But the worst offender is often the person who is nowhere near the scene. The guy who orders the killing is usually worse than the killer who carries it out. The armourer is complicit in the killing his gun performs and so on.

    The UK SC ruled not long ago on joint enterprise (R v Jogee) and brought the law rationally up to date.

    https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2015-0015-judgment.pdf
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,262
    It's not terribly important, but in US elections, the word "nominee" is usually reserved for those who win the nomination of their party. But you got it straight later by calling Trump a "candidate".
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,098

    One of my favourites. I also love 'chocolate girl' and 'Fergus sings the blues'. A great band.
    Likewise, but as confirmed on the podacst I linked earlier, Dignity was never really a hit.

    I did a few gigs with the band that begat them before they really took off.

    Rickie's early solo work is pretty good too
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,917
    darkage said:

    Cummings has cited Musk's approach at Twitter as being an example to follow for public services (lol).

    I can't say I am a big fan of Elon Musk but I think what he is doing is ultimately fair given that he has spent 44 billion or whatever buying a business which has never really made any money. The people leaving Twitter are going to find lots of other opportunities where they will prefer the culture as they are highly skilled. Musk cannot carry around a bloated zombie corporate structure that is resistant to his legitimate objectives for the business. But having said all that, I would definitely not want to work there, and it might turn out to be the case that he struggles to find people willing to do so, given the nature of what Twitter does, it is different to Tesla and attracts different people.
    It seems like a strange way of looking at the world to me.

    According to Cummings, Twitter didn't have the virtue of making a lot of money (though obviously it provided a service that was popular because people found it useful).

    Therefore, apparently, it makes sense to spend a huge amount of money buying it, and then because in his eyes it's not profitable enough, to wreck it on the off-chance that it might make it profitable rather than just destroying it?

    It sounds like anything but a sensible approach to public services, because it's based on a total incomprehension of the concept of a "service" as opposed to a means of squeezing as much money as possible out of people for your own benefit!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,539
    Scott_xP said:

    Indeed.

    BTW, this is fabulous, as are all the other episode

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p06bn23m
    Amazed at how many of those albums I own.
  • Omnium said:

    It's a pointless question though. A better question is should the UK apply to rejoin the EU.
    …restore freedom of movement and adopt the Euro….
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,793
    edited November 2022

    Mine is at the point where I'm not sure I've got a tape measure that big.
    I have quite a small one. Certainly most are bigger these days. Keep meaning to do something about it but both me and my wife have kind of got used to it. So no rush.
  • Omnium said:

    It's a pointless question though. A better question is should the UK apply to rejoin the EU.
    Those polls exist as well, see

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/should-the-united-kingdom-join-the-european-union-or-stay-out-of-the-european-union/

    Smaller lead, but mostly about 50-35 for rejoin. There are a bazillion reasons why that's not enough to enact as a policy, but in the way that's not the point.

    The UK has a core policy that a lot of people never bought into in the first place, and even more of the population now think was a mistake but can't be reversed quickly. And a lot of people don't want to talk about ameliorating the problems for fear of provoking Mad Uncle Nigel.

    Whatever the objective rights and wrongs, that's not a happy place for a country to be.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    Leon said:

    May not like them, but these polls are increasingly hard to ignore


    In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?

    Right to Leave: 32% (-3)
    Wrong to Leave: 56% (+4)

    Via @YouGov, 9-10 Nov.
    Changes w/ 1-2 Nov.

    Largest EVER lead for 'Wrong to Leave' (polled since Aug 2016).

    Unfortunately the matter is a more than one stage argument, things which never do well with the good old general public who have better things to think about. This is especially true on questions where there are upsides and downsides to all possible outcomes, something which neither voters nor politicians like being upfront about.

    Question one: Was it right to leave the EU

    Question two: Is the way we left it the best solution to the problem of how to leave

    etc.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548
    felix said:

    You have to do it in Spain even though we have id cards as well!
    Also, if the only criticism is it is old fashioned, that's not a lot to go on to introduce some expensive new system.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,013
    algarkirk said:

    Unfortunately the matter is a more than one stage argument, things which never do well with the good old general public who have better things to think about. This is especially true on questions where there are upsides and downsides to all possible outcomes, something which neither voters nor politicians like being upfront about.

    Question one: Was it right to leave the EU

    Question two: Is the way we left it the best solution to the problem of how to leave

    etc.
    Indeed, ask them if they want to rejoin the EU plus the Eurozone and you would get a slightly different answer. Even ask them if they want to rejoin the EEA only and restore free movement and you would get a different answer to a slightly more aligned trading relationship with the EU than now
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,262
    Since you are discussing "trans" issues, let me add this small fact: Amazon refuses to sell "When Harry Became Sally", a book arguing that trying to change one's sex is often bad for the person attempting it. They do sell Abigail Shrier's "Irreversible Damage", which makes a similar argument about girls, but rejected on-site ads for that book.

    (Full disclosure: I bought a copy of the first from B&N, but haven't gotten around to reading it. And have mostly stopped buying books from the giant retailer.)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,917
    Just checking - I know people never like to admit they're wrong, but is anyone still suggesting we should start World War Three because of the incident yesterday in Poland?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,793

    I took the essence of the OP as being that anyone critical of trans ideology was in a similar position to homophobes in the 80s and early 90s. That's what I was responding to.
    Ah ok. Well that would be wrong and unfair. I do see similarities but it doesn't follow that you can throw that accusation at individuals just because they are "gender critical" or whatever. Depends on the sentiment that's driving them.
  • Zelensky said he "received signals" from Western allies that Russia's Vladimir Putin would like to hold direct negotiations with Ukraine.

    "I received signals that Putin wants direct negotiations," he said. "I proposed a public forum because Russia is waging a public war."


    https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1592931503025295360
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548
    edited November 2022
    Chris said:

    Just checking - I know people never like to admit they're wrong, but is anyone still suggesting we should start World War Three because of the incident yesterday in Poland?

    Pretty sure anyone suggesting full blown war still qualified things with 'if' Russia was indeed responsible. So they probably wouldn't need to say they were wrong at all, unless they accepted even a Russian mistake would not be a casus belli for all out WW3.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Am on the move, so having to comment via the annoying car wreck of Vanilla on mobile - but re. cinema

    For decades it’s been portrayed as a dying medium. Up to Covid, it definitely was not. Actual attendances (and revenues with it) have increased year on year from 2000-2019.

    Since then, tougher times. But - and this is interesting - it is a young person’s medium. It is the youth who are back in the seats from 2020 onwards. It absolutely retains a place as a great way to experience stories (and Marshall McLuhan’s original ‘hot media’ in terms of focus and immersion).

    Like radio, writing off cinema is a mug’s game.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Amazed at how many of those albums I own.
    Fratellis disappointing in Plymouth last night, 40 minute set which felt like the Yes Sir I Can Boogie tour. But nice to hear Whistle for the Choir live.

    On the plus side the Sherlocks (v young Sheffield band) were fantastic

    And golly music sounds better in proper masonry buildings vs tents and stadiums.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,819

    Any “shaming investigation” that starts with “U.K. Law” sounds like it hasn’t done its homework….

    The New York Times has just run a shaming investigation into the UK legal principle of “joint enterprise”, under which people can be charged for crimes they were nowhere near.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/15/uk-joint-enterprise-convictions-injustice-supreme-court-racially-biased

    "America has put us on notice"
    algarkirk said:

    Unfortunately the matter is a more than one stage argument, things which never do well with the good old general public who have better things to think about. This is especially true on questions where there are upsides and downsides to all possible outcomes, something which neither voters nor politicians like being upfront about.

    Question one: Was it right to leave the EU

    Question two: Is the way we left it the best solution to the problem of how to leave

    etc.
    One problem is that what's left of the continuity Remain campaign is still focusing on pushing an anti-Brexit rather than pro-EU message.
  • Omnium said:

    It's a pointless question though. A better question is should the UK apply to rejoin the EU.
    We rejoin. We experience similar challenges on uneven and weak growth, high EU migration and some new ones on political union. And new EU regulations coming in we don't like. Everyone is frustrated. 5 years later there's a poll:

    In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to re-join the European Union?

    Right to Rejoin: 34% (-12)
    Wrong to Rejoin: 54% (+10)

    Via @YouGov, 9-10 Nov, 2034.

    The existing Brexit settlement clearly isn't politically sustainable as-is but neither is it as simple as going back to square one and pretending that it'd fix everything and the issues that led us to leave were never really there.

  • YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    London
    Lab 55%
    Con 17%
    LD 11%
    Grn 8%
    Ref 7%

    Rest of South
    Lab 40%
    Con 33%
    LD 15%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 5%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 51%
    Con 25%
    Ref 7%
    LD 7%
    Grn 4%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 61%
    Con 20%
    Ref 5%
    LD 5%
    Grn 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 44%
    Lab 27%
    Con 16%
    LD 6%
    Grn 3%
    Ref 2%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1708; Fieldwork: 9th - 10th November 2022)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,467

    Those polls exist as well, see

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/should-the-united-kingdom-join-the-european-union-or-stay-out-of-the-european-union/

    Smaller lead, but mostly about 50-35 for rejoin. There are a bazillion reasons why that's not enough to enact as a policy, but in the way that's not the point.

    The UK has a core policy that a lot of people never bought into in the first place, and even more of the population now think was a mistake but can't be reversed quickly. And a lot of people don't want to talk about ameliorating the problems for fear of provoking Mad Uncle Nigel.

    Whatever the objective rights and wrongs, that's not a happy place for a country to be.
    Of course there is such polling. It's sort of meaningless as there's no idea as to what rejoining might mean, but good for the general flavour.

    Farage has nothing to apologise for. He did what he thought was right and very effecively so. What he can do though is stand as an example of what endeavour can yield.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,917
    edited November 2022
    kle4 said:

    Pretty sure anyone suggesting full blown war still qualified things with 'if' Russia was indeed responsible. So they probably wouldn't need to say they were wrong at all, unless they accepted even a Russian mistake would not be a casus belli for all out WW3.
    Presumably you missed comments like this one (in response to a suggestion that it may not have been an intentional Russian attack):
    "Bollocks to that. We should use it as a pretext to destroy every Russian plane, tank, barrel and soldier on Ukrainian sovereign territory and have done with this thing. "
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,686
    Leon said:

    May not like them, but these polls are increasingly hard to ignore

    In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?

    Right to Leave: 32% (-3)
    Wrong to Leave: 56% (+4)

    Via @YouGov, 9-10 Nov.
    Changes w/ 1-2 Nov.

    Largest EVER lead for 'Wrong to Leave' (polled since Aug 2016).

    Good for you posting it.
    It does raise a number of unanswered, and possibly unanswerable questions, but it’s hardly ‘pointless’ asking the electorate if they feel it was all a mistake.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,674
    Chris said:

    Just checking - I know people never like to admit they're wrong, but is anyone still suggesting we should start World War Three because of the incident yesterday in Poland?

    The logic of some of yesterday's posts is that NATO should now declare war on Ukraine. Essentially it was always clearly an accident that didn't justify escalation by anyone, and the fact that it now seems to have been a Ukrainian accident doesn't change that. When we ponder Western policy from our armchairs, it's worth keeping in mind that accidents do occur in conflict and not every opportunity to ramp the conflict up should be seized.

    Zelensky has made a rare PR mistake in arguing the toss with NATO about this - he'd be much better-advised to take the Polish line that it was an unfortunate incident but really Russia's fault because if they weren't firing missiles then Ukraine wouldn't be firing back. In general he seems less sure-footed than usual, with the line on whether he's willing to negotiate also varying from day to day - the current version seems to be "yes but only in public", which sounds more rhetorical than serious.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548
    Chris said:

    Presumably you missed comments like this one (in response to a suggestion that it may not have been an intentional Russian attack):
    "Bollocks to that. We should use it as a pretext to destroy every Russian plane, tank, barrel and soldier on Ukrainian sovereign territory and have done with this thing. "
    I grant that one is a tad unreasonable. But not many were that full throttle without any wiggle room.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,467
    Nigelb said:

    Good for you posting it.
    It does raise a number of unanswered, and possibly unanswerable questions, but it’s hardly ‘pointless’ asking the electorate if they feel it was all a mistake.
    Go on then - what is the point?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited November 2022

    YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    London
    Lab 55%
    Con 17%
    LD 11%
    Grn 8%
    Ref 7%

    Rest of South
    Lab 40%
    Con 33%
    LD 15%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 5%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 51%
    Con 25%
    Ref 7%
    LD 7%
    Grn 4%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 61%
    Con 20%
    Ref 5%
    LD 5%
    Grn 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 44%
    Lab 27%
    Con 16%
    LD 6%
    Grn 3%
    Ref 2%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1708; Fieldwork: 9th - 10th November 2022)

    Enough to make Rishi spit out his organic fairtrade tea.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,442

    "America has put us on notice" One problem is that what's left of the continuity Remain campaign is still focusing on pushing an anti-Brexit rather than pro-EU message.
    Aren't they closely related?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Dominic Cummings suggesting that Kuleba (and Zelensky?) are gangsters. Who does he work for?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,686
    LOL.

    https://twitter.com/troy_senik/status/1592736628883492864
    Seeing as this the one moment where being a Grover Cleveland biographer has any social utility, let me save you all a lot of Googling: Cleveland and Trump are starkly dissimilar figures…

    … One detail underscores the contrast better than any other. When Cleveland lost the 1888 election, some of his supporters suggested the election had been stolen from him. This was not implausible, as there was real electoral chicanery afoot in those days…

    … though it’s very unlikely it actually affected the outcome.

    But when Cleveland was asked why he thought he had lost, he simply replied, “It was mainly because the other party had the most votes.”
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,936
    Ivan Toney charged with over 200 cases of betting breaches.
    He should be on here.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,467

    Dominic Cummings suggesting that Kuleba (and Zelensky?) are gangsters. Who does he work for?

    Deliveroo I imagine.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,917
    kle4 said:

    I grant that one is a tad unreasonable. But not many were that full throttle without any wiggle room.
    I didn't say many were. I just asked if anyone still was!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited November 2022

    Enough to make Rishi spit out his organic fairtrade tea.
    Richi is toast. Lab score double Con score in Midlands = landslide

    I think it’s fairly safe to conclude: the honeymoon was a micropenis event.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,703
    Chris said:

    Just checking - I know people never like to admit they're wrong, but is anyone still suggesting we should start World War Three because of the incident yesterday in Poland?

    Who was saying what?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,013

    YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    London
    Lab 55%
    Con 17%
    LD 11%
    Grn 8%
    Ref 7%

    Rest of South
    Lab 40%
    Con 33%
    LD 15%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 5%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 51%
    Con 25%
    Ref 7%
    LD 7%
    Grn 4%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 61%
    Con 20%
    Ref 5%
    LD 5%
    Grn 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 44%
    Lab 27%
    Con 16%
    LD 6%
    Grn 3%
    Ref 2%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1708; Fieldwork: 9th - 10th November 2022)

    Reform on 5 to 7% in every region outside Scotland also hitting the Tories.

    In Scotland a swing from SNP as well as Scons to SLAB since 2019
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,661

    Enough to make Rishi spit out his organic fairtrade tea.
    Reads post. Looks at cup in hand. Yep.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    Zelensky said he "received signals" from Western allies that Russia's Vladimir Putin would like to hold direct negotiations with Ukraine.

    "I received signals that Putin wants direct negotiations," he said. "I proposed a public forum because Russia is waging a public war."


    https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1592931503025295360

    I think the main thing we have learned is not to be naive about Russia, we should work on the assumption that it is just trying to buy itself time to rearm itself to try and attack Ukraine again. So the first principle is that any 'peace deal' should involve guarantees that enable Ukraine to defend itself against future attacks from Russia. Otherwise we are just being taken for fools.
  • Since you are discussing "trans" issues, let me add this small fact: Amazon refuses to sell "When Harry Became Sally", a book arguing that trying to change one's sex is often bad for the person attempting it. They do sell Abigail Shrier's "Irreversible Damage", which makes a similar argument about girls, but rejected on-site ads for that book.

    (Full disclosure: I bought a copy of the first from B&N, but haven't gotten around to reading it. And have mostly stopped buying books from the giant retailer.)

    He may have been ahead of the curve - his principal beef was with “affirmative care” (drugs & surgery) for children.

    https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinion/voices/2021/03/19/amazon-pulls-controversial-book-transgender-ryan-anderson-column/4635062001/
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,161
    Mixed bag of local by-elections tomorrow. There are Con defences in Blackburn and Blackpool; Lab defences in Bolsover, Glasgow, Oldham, and Rhondda; Ind defence in Shetland; Green defence in Suffolk.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,686
    From a very good thread of UK research and innovation policy.

    https://twitter.com/nathanbenaich/status/1592564291806584832
    I'm allergic to this reflex of saying "we have to adjust our expectations because we're basically worse off/have less than the US". This seems far too common in Europe/UK.

    We should instead say "what can we do to be #1? how can we be better than the US?"
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,072
    dixiedean said:

    Ivan Toney charged with over 200 cases of betting breaches.
    He should be on here.

    Bet he doesn’t have a Senator Laxhalt tattoo
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples:

    London
    Lab 55%
    Con 17%
    LD 11%
    Grn 8%
    Ref 7%

    Rest of South
    Lab 40%
    Con 33%
    LD 15%
    Grn 5%
    Ref 5%

    Midlands and Wales
    Lab 51%
    Con 25%
    Ref 7%
    LD 7%
    Grn 4%
    PC 3%

    North
    Lab 61%
    Con 20%
    Ref 5%
    LD 5%
    Grn 4%

    Scotland
    SNP 44%
    Lab 27%
    Con 16%
    LD 6%
    Grn 3%
    Ref 2%

    (YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1708; Fieldwork: 9th - 10th November 2022)

    Does that not show Unionist maj Scotland? Is that unusual? Is this post permitted at all under the subsample fatwa?
  • HYUFD said:

    Reform on 5 to 7% in every region outside Scotland also hitting the Tories.

    In Scotland a swing from SNP as well as Scons to SLAB since 2019
    Indeed. But shame for you proto-fascists that there are no SNP/Lab marginals under the new boundaries.

    Baxter gives:

    SNP 52 seats (+4)
    SLab 3 seats (+2)
    SLD 1 seat (-1)
    SCon 1 seat (-5)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,467

    Bet he doesn’t have a Senator Laxhalt tattoo
    That isn't an anagram of the boss! "Mike Smithson" is though.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Does that not show Unionist maj Scotland? Is that unusual? Is this post permitted at all under the subsample fatwa?
    Mike Smithson is not Elon Musk.
    Smithson has better ride quality.
  • Leon said:

    May not like them, but these polls are increasingly hard to ignore


    In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?

    Right to Leave: 32% (-3)
    Wrong to Leave: 56% (+4)

    Via @YouGov, 9-10 Nov.
    Changes w/ 1-2 Nov.

    Largest EVER lead for 'Wrong to Leave' (polled since Aug 2016).

    Rejoining would be the 21st century answer to the Restoration of 1660.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,686
    Omnium said:

    Go on then - what is the point?
    The utility of making public opinion… public ought to be obvious.
    Or would you prefer our leaders to press on regardless, making policy on the basis of their gut feeling about what we all think ?
This discussion has been closed.