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Trump back up to a 36% betting chance for the GOP 2024 nomination – politicalbetting.com
Trump back up to a 36% betting chance for the GOP 2024 nomination – politicalbetting.com
So Trump has made his announcement about his plan to run in 2024 and he’s already filed his papers so he is an official nominee. That of itself resolves one betting market on whether he would be a runner. The submission of the papers makes it official.
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And all those clips of Biden appearing, frankly, ga-ga are going to be played over and over and over for the next two years.
Expect Trump to major on health records. "I have made mine public." The worry must be that the Democrats keep Biden in place and by the time it is too late to replace him, they have to keep him out the public eye because he is making too many gaffes for Republican attack ads. And "Where's Joe?" becomes the new "Where's Wally?"
There needs to be an alternative Democrat candidate ready to go, just in case.
1st he's got to announce to run. Probable but not 100% likely.
Then he's got to beat Trump
Then he's got to beat Biden.
He had a great result in Florida, but he's not a 5-2 shot.
Up 50% in the last two years.
It's the sauce of much food inflation.
I reckon the January 6th coup d’état attempt was a Salisbury moment for Trump.
In the UK it turned Corbyn from harmless old grandad into a malevolent force.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/nadine-dorries-writing-book-boris-johnson-political-assassination-tory-conservative-mp-b1040256.html
Either Trump gets the nomination, in which case the impact on the Republican vote can be anticipated to be much the same as the impact he had on Republican candidates he backed in the mid-terms, but this time with the added handicap of running in the face of opposition from the Murdoch empire.
Or Trump is beaten to the nomination, in which case he goes off in a massive huff and flails out at the Republican Party in all directions, some MAGA supporters follow his lead and the impact on the Republican vote will be much the same as the impact his sulk in 2020 had on the Georgia Senate run-off, when some of his MAGA tribe took his cue and appeared to stay at home.
“He’s fucked,” a former cabinet minister told @PoliticsHome.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/dominic-raab-asks-rishi-sunak-to-launch-independent-investigation-following-conduct-claims
https://nypost.com/2022/11/12/new-primary-poll-finds-desantis-has-edge-over-trump-in-2024/
Is there a current or ex Governor who could step up? What about a senator or a representative?
It is not obvious.
At the moment it's all Trump/DeSantis, with Pence/Haley/Youngkin in the 20s - and pretty well everyone else in the hundreds.
Someone has to be profitably mispriced ?
Best just ignored.
Still available at 75/1.
The long odds candidates' odds can move sharply if they attract a bit of interest.
https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg/status/1592839626015723520
Newsom is a terrific fund-raiser but his strong Patrick Bateman energy might not play.
"Docs don't give a cognitive test to measure intellect," Dr Ankur Dave explained on Twitter. "We give it to assess cognitive defects. Trump calling questions on this test difficult should raise some red flags about dementia and inability to serve."
https://www.iflscience.com/this-is-the-test-donald-trump-keeps-bragging-he-aced-56752
It isn't such good news for the large group of people who rely on private sector rental housing. More regulation on landlords who then exit the market, reduces the amount of properties available for rent, can only lead to increases in rents.
If you look at the inquest yesterday about 'mould' in houses which caused the death of a 2 year old boy, you can predict exactly what is going to happen - landlords will be forced to retrofit houses and flats with mechanical ventilation at a cost of £2-£4k per unit that actually has a cooling effect that increases heating bills in winter. Post Grenfell, the government is basically addicted to new ways of regulating housing and has lost the ability to make effective policy in this area.
In the end the only solution will be a massive programme of council house building at vast cost to the public sector. It will basically take us back to the 1970s and all the 'dependency' problems Thatcherism sought to solve.
UK Gov't Policy Approval Ratings (13 November):
Defence -2% (+1)
Foreign Policy -12% (+1)
Housing -32% (–)
Immigration -38% (+5)
NHS -39% (-3)
Economy -41% (-4)
Changes +/- 6 November
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1592842469774876673
https://www.flightradar24.com/KRH646/2e3aa109
The best thing government can do is get out of the way and make planning easier, especially for owner-builders and small developments. They could also create a standard for new types of housing, such as modular build, that will allow for regular mortgages to be taken out on them.
"This is where I'd say the betting markets are wrong. Early favourites don't have a great record of making it to the nomination."
538 now hedging a bit and making a case for DeSantis:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/
Trump does worse in head-to-head primary polls vs DeSantis, compared with polls with several candidates. (DeSantis also still has worse name recognition, so those head to head polls might be understating his potential lead). If the Republicans can coalesce around a single candidate against Trump this time, Trump's chances don't look too good.
"I think this makes it more likely that 80-year-old Biden will go for the Dem nomination"
And win
Well there are bound to be many other runners and all knocking spots off one another.
There's only one winner from that process and he's not a Republican.
Will probably go nowhere, but if the Republicans decide they want a Mr Sensible, then he wouldn't be a bad pick.
Not sure any of those three are value even at 500 - hasn't Cotton already said he won't run ? And little Marco can't fancy another pasting.
I thought he was friends with the Saj, anyway.
But if you dig in to this you will find the problem I keep mentioning, regulation and material costs have driven up build costs to the point where you just cannot viably build anything. This is before you even deal with planning risk. Investors are sitting on big assets in valuable, well connected areas (ie large supermarkets) which could be rebuilt with hundreds of flats on the same site whilst keeping the supermarket, and concluding that it isn't viable to do it because of build costs, falling house prices and political opposition largely from wealthy pensioners who just dont like change.
Not sure that holds outside of Florida.
Raab doing PMQs today.
Top bantz.
Another thing we could do to increase housing capacity is to let people build up. All those terraced streets in London & elsewhere could easily gain a storey without materially affecting the streetscape. An instant increase in housing capacity right there, paid for by individual homeowners as & when they choose to build up.
lolz
https://www.slowboring.com/p/i-would-like-to-know-ron-desantis
Dominic Cummings is very proud of the fact he managed to force through a bunch of changes to planning 'under the radar' that allow shops and other community functions to be converted to housing without planning permission but it is really bad legislation based on largely on gut instinct and ignorance; normally it takes about 8 years for this type of bad change to be corrected.
In a non lawyer's reading of the arguments it did seem pretty straightforward that it was for the Lord Advocate to state if they believed the parliament had power to legislate on the question, and not to refer it to court in advance. If they couldn't say in their view the power was there, end of for their part at least.
Can't imagine questions of technical legal procedure cutting much ice though.
The other thing which could work against Trump is that primary voters tend to prefer candidates they think will win in the general. If Republican voters start thinking Trump is less likely than eg DeSantis to win the presidency, then Trump could rapidly lose a lot of support.
Whether that is sound tactics is another matter.
Which is where I started out looking for unlikely long odds names.
Raab dealt with that comfortably. Though to be fair, Angela Rayner made it very easy for him.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1592853158216495110
Easy win for Angela Rayner, there.
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1592853116193763328
https://tass.com/defense/1537641
"not a single missile strike was delivered against sites in the city of Kiev."
But they are saying they didn't target residential areas.
https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1592853557581340673
Some clearly already think he is not a winner, but its mostly those who already disliked him.
Who can persuade the rank and file that he is not a winner?
Hence the need for a popular new candidate. They need not attack him too much, but just hammer home that they are a winner, and watch Trump explode.
I am not sure that they have thought this through.
I never said he was guilty but that the incident should be investigated
It may well be Raab is not a nice man, but that's not fatal to him. So far that seems the main thrust of allegations.