politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Introducing the new third favourite for Dave’s job – Defen
The money goes on Phillip Hammond for next CON leader.Hills move his price from 10/1 to 8/1. May is 4/1 Boris 5/1 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
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Lets guess what price Tims on at...
20s? 33s? 100s?0 -
"We are all Kippers now!"0
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I hope not. His comments today on gay marriage were ill considered.Much like Farage's have been.0
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FPT:
SeanT said:
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Quite right. Ridiculous document. It's saying you HAVE to agree with multiculturalism to be allowed a role in local politics. This egregious, sinister bullshit is one very significant reason people vote UKIP in the first place.
The atrocious thing is that, presumably, the local Tories just meekly swallowed this crap, and signed on the dotted line.
They did! Hence the rise if UKIP.0 -
I can't see Hammond as a leader. First follower yes, but leader? Still, stranger things have happened.
However, his time at the MOD has not exactly been a resounding success.0 -
Hello from sunny Cardiff. Hate typing from a mobile, so off to find a pub.
Have overdone the coffee so need beer to counteract it.0 -
I think Hammond better matches the likely mood in 2015 if the Conservatives lose than Boris, certainly. May is closer but I don't see many other options for how I think the party will feel. He's Eurosceptic, and seen to get the job done. MikeK says his "time has not exactly been a resounding success" but he 'balanced the books for a first time in a decade' (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-18054731) is seen to be adapting the military to a new climate (and so might do so for a Tory party for a new climate on welfare, immigration etc.) is Eurosceptic, and not seen to be in the Cameron-Osborne clique.0
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More good news.
European car sales up for the first time in 18 months thanks to a 15 % increase in the UK.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-225663940 -
But whats the use of balancing the books if at the end of it Britain has a laughingly miniscule defence deterrent.Grandiose said:I think Hammond better matches the likely mood in 2015 if the Conservatives lose than Boris, certainly. May is closer but I don't see many other options for how I think the party will feel. He's Eurosceptic, and seen to get the job done. MikeK says his "time has not exactly been a resounding success" but he 'balanced the books for a first time in a decade' (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-18054731) is seen to be adapting the military to a new climate (and so might do so for a Tory party for a new climate on welfare, immigration etc.) is Eurosceptic, and not seen to be in the Cameron-Osborne clique.
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Nice one.samonipad said:
Lets guess what price Tims on at...
20s? 33s? 100s?0 -
Just a joke you mugMick_Pork said:
Presumably he can say himself over who and what odds. Didn't he get on May at good ones?samonipad said:Lets guess what price Tims on at...
20s? 33s? 100s?
Or are such betting posts to be mocked on here now? A somewhat curious stance for a political betting site admittedly.
When was your last betting post btw?
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Hammogadon. Beyond boring.0
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Haha cheers!MikeSmithson said:Nice one.
samonipad said:Lets guess what price Tims on at...
20s? 33s? 100s?
I've worked in trading rooms of betting firms for years and there is always one person who, no matter what bet someone mentions, is on already a better price
Generally when they back a loser they were unlucky or it was the jockeys fault etc and when they back a winner it's solely down to their genius!
Tim is good at finding the value though, no doubt about it
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I like to publish my bets here on PB before events happen. Sometimes you look stupid but sometimes you look like prophet.samonipad said:
Haha cheers!MikeSmithson said:Nice one.
samonipad said:Lets guess what price Tims on at...
20s? 33s? 100s?
I've worked in trading rooms of betting firms for years and there is always one person who, no matter what bet someone mentions, is on already a better price
Generally when they back a loser they were unlucky or it was the jockeys fault etc and when they back a winner it's solely down to their genius!
Tim is good at finding the value though, no doubt about it0 -
We've got Hammond and May, but where does that leave Clarkson?0
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Always thought Hammond looked like a sensible candidate to lead CON after defeat in 2015. Just topped up £7 at 23.18 o_O on Betfair.
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Very good!MonikerDiCanio said:
Hammogadon. Beyond boring.
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Quinnipiac Virginia General 2016
•Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
•Paul Ryan (R) 40%
•Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
•Marco Rubio (R) 38%
•Mark Warner (D) 50%
•Paul Ryan (R) 37%
•Mark Warner (D) 51%
•Marco Rubio (R) 33%
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Calm down dear. It was merely an observation since betting posts on here from those who know what they are talking about are sadly quite rare these days. You kippers need to chill lest you think everything is a "hate filled question" and run away in the huff.samonipad said:
Just a joke you mugMick_Pork said:
Presumably he can say himself over who and what odds. Didn't he get on May at good ones?samonipad said:Lets guess what price Tims on at...
20s? 33s? 100s?
Or are such betting posts to be mocked on here now? A somewhat curious stance for a political betting site admittedly.
Offhand it might merely have been a retweet of shortening odds on the tory leadership contenders a while back when Cammie's EU madness was reaching John Major levels and his backbenchers went back to running about like headless chickens. Might even have been something on UKIP after the locals come to that.samonipad said:When was your last betting post btw?
Point being I don't that often since I prefer to leave it to those who have a good track record and Tim is head and shoulders above most on here for that. He might not have the lucrative ability to shift the odds in the political betting market but he still seems to make a killing often enough off the bookies.
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Yes those big price tips make good headlines for the threads tooMikeSmithson said:I like to publish my bets here on PB before events happen. Sometimes you look stupid but sometimes you look like prophet.
samonipad said:
Haha cheers!MikeSmithson said:Nice one.
samonipad said:Lets guess what price Tims on at...
20s? 33s? 100s?
I've worked in trading rooms of betting firms for years and there is always one person who, no matter what bet someone mentions, is on already a better price
Generally when they back a loser they were unlucky or it was the jockeys fault etc and when they back a winner it's solely down to their genius!
Tim is good at finding the value though, no doubt about it
If you are on winners at nice prices you can stand a few losers... I saw you did well at Eastleigh and South Shields... The early prices on these markets are way wrong sometimes aren't they? Shows odds compilers for what they are, betfair trackers, and politics is one of the few betting markets left where knowledge and form is not easy to come by.
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Undoubtably so, I was joking and you bit... Then accused me of biting haha!!Mick_Pork said:
Calm down dear. It was merely an observation since betting posts on here from those who know what they are talking about are sadly quite rare these days. You kippers need to chill lest you think everything is a "hate filled question" and run away in the huff.samonipad said:
Just a joke you mugMick_Pork said:
Presumably he can say himself over who and what odds. Didn't he get on May at good ones?samonipad said:Lets guess what price Tims on at...
20s? 33s? 100s?
Or are such betting posts to be mocked on here now? A somewhat curious stance for a political betting site admittedly.
Offhand it might merely have been a retweet of shortening odds on the tory leadership contenders a while back when Cammie's EU madness was reaching John Major levels and his backbenchers went back to running about like headless chickens. Might even have been something on UKIP after the locals come to that.samonipad said:When was your last betting post btw?
Point being I don't that often since I prefer to leave it to those who have a good track record and Tim is head and shoulders above most on here for that. He might not have the handy ability to shift the odds in the political betting market but he still seems to make a killing often enough off the bookies.
Mug was a bit harsh though I shouldn't have said that, sorry
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samonipad said:
Undoubtably so, I was joking and you bit... Then accused me of biting haha!!Mick_Pork said:
Calm down dear. It was merely an observation since betting posts on here from those who know what they are talking about are sadly quite rare these days. You kippers need to chill lest you think everything is a "hate filled question" and run away in the huff.samonipad said:
Just a joke you mugMick_Pork said:
Presumably he can say himself over who and what odds. Didn't he get on May at good ones?samonipad said:Lets guess what price Tims on at...
20s? 33s? 100s?
Or are such betting posts to be mocked on here now? A somewhat curious stance for a political betting site admittedly.
Offhand it might merely have been a retweet of shortening odds on the tory leadership contenders a while back when Cammie's EU madness was reaching John Major levels and his backbenchers went back to running about like headless chickens. Might even have been something on UKIP after the locals come to that.samonipad said:When was your last betting post btw?
Point being I don't that often since I prefer to leave it to those who have a good track record and Tim is head and shoulders above most on here for that. He might not have the handy ability to shift the odds in the political betting market but he still seems to make a killing often enough off the bookies.
Mug was a bit harsh though I shouldn't have said that, sorry
No need to apologise. I routinely get far worse than that and it has never put me off posting on here. I welcome the betting posts because they are so often clearly unpartisan data gleaned from the fast moving events in politics.
The more useful extrapolations using them and good polling is, I suspect, what keeps most coming back here. Though there is much to be said for those who demonstrate a 'feel' for how politics are going rather than merely dry calculation.
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'Grassroots Tory activists are 'mad swivel-eyed loons' a/c to one of Cameron's closest allies. That'll boost Tory morale. Our splash tmrw' gallagher
'The startling @jameskirkup splash comes from v senior figure with strong social connections to Cameron. 'Loons' blamed for EU/gay hard line'
An undercover UKIPper perhaps.0 -
The next coalition? Why Ed Miliband needs to get Nick Clegg's number
Former minister Peter Hain – a close ally of the Labour leader – tells Andrew Grice that his party must start making overtures to the Lib Dems
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-next-coalition-why-ed-miliband-needs-to-get-nick-cleggs-number-8621776.html
Labour and hain not confident of a labour majority,interesting.0 -
Inside info helps too... A mate of mine was on Cameron at 10s and Osborne at 12s (I think) to be next Tory leader in 2005 through a contact in the party machineMick_Pork said:samonipad said:
Undoubtably so, I was joking and you bit... Then accused me of biting haha!!Mick_Pork said:
Calm down dear. It was merely an observation since betting posts on here from those who know what they are talking about are sadly quite rare these days. You kippers need to chill lest you think everything is a "hate filled question" and run away in the huff.samonipad said:
Just a joke you mugMick_Pork said:
Presumably he can say himself over who and what odds. Didn't he get on May at good ones?samonipad said:Lets guess what price Tims on at...
20s? 33s? 100s?
Or are such betting posts to be mocked on here now? A somewhat curious stance for a political betting site admittedly.
Offhand it might merely have been a retweet of shortening odds on the tory leadership contenders a while back when Cammie's EU madness was reaching John Major levels and his backbenchers went back to running about like headless chickens. Might even have been something on UKIP after the locals come to that.samonipad said:When was your last betting post btw?
Point being I don't that often since I prefer to leave it to those who have a good track record and Tim is head and shoulders above most on here for that. He might not have the handy ability to shift the odds in the political betting market but he still seems to make a killing often enough off the bookies.
Mug was a bit harsh though I shouldn't have said that, sorry
No need to apologise. I routinely get far worse than that and it has never put me off posting on here. I welcome the betting posts because they are so often clearly unpartisan data gleaned from the fast moving events in politics.
The more useful extrapolations using them and good polling is, I suspect, what keeps most coming back here. Though there is much to be said for those who demonstrate a 'feel' for how politics are going rather than merely dry calculation.
Yes it's one of the few betting markets where a feel for events can trump ratings and stats, although a combo of both is best
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Anyone who knew in advance that the infamous Frank Luntz was doing that Newsnight focus group for the leadership battle would have been handily placed too. That arguably swung it even more than Cammie's speech since it rammed home that he was Blairite moderniser and presented the tory membership with an amusingly stark choice. I don't think David Davis has ever gotten over that.samonipad said:
Inside info helps too... A mate of mine was on Cameron at 10s and Osborne at 12s (I think) to be next Tory leader in 2005 through a contact in the party machineMick_Pork said:samonipad said:
Undoubtably so, I was joking and you bit... Then accused me of biting haha!!Mick_Pork said:
Calm down dear. It was merely an observation since betting posts on here from those who know what they are talking about are sadly quite rare these days. You kippers need to chill lest you think everything is a "hate filled question" and run away in the huff.samonipad said:
Just a joke you mugMick_Pork said:
Presumably he can say himself over who and what odds. Didn't he get on May at good ones?samonipad said:Lets guess what price Tims on at...
20s? 33s? 100s?
Or are such betting posts to be mocked on here now? A somewhat curious stance for a political betting site admittedly.
Offhand it might merely have been a retweet of shortening odds on the tory leadership contenders a while back when Cammie's EU madness was reaching John Major levels and his backbenchers went back to running about like headless chickens. Might even have been something on UKIP after the locals come to that.samonipad said:When was your last betting post btw?
Point being I don't that often since I prefer to leave it to those who have a good track record and Tim is head and shoulders above most on here for that. He might not have the handy ability to shift the odds in the political betting market but he still seems to make a killing often enough off the bookies.
Mug was a bit harsh though I shouldn't have said that, sorry
No need to apologise. I routinely get far worse than that and it has never put me off posting on here. I welcome the betting posts because they are so often clearly unpartisan data gleaned from the fast moving events in politics.
The more useful extrapolations using them and good polling is, I suspect, what keeps most coming back here. Though there is much to be said for those who demonstrate a 'feel' for how politics are going rather than merely dry calculation.
Yes it's one of the few betting markets where a feel for events can trump ratings and stats, although a combo of both is best
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LOLCarola said:0 -
Happy to see Scotland's finest politician defending Farage ;
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/468506/20130517/george-galloway-nigel-farage-ukip-edinburgh-bbc.htm0 -
Euro 2014 Election Spreadsheet now has regional forecasts
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AswNZWYSW1uvdFFtVGpSQzVoVXpGM253UkhrTEdFbVE&usp=sharing
Looks like the LDs last seats will be held/lost in London, NorthWest, SouthWest and SouthEast in that order...0 -
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iainmartin1 Who is the person v close to Cam who described Tory activists in @Telegraph splash as "loons" be? Hmmmmm........
The telegraph really has it in for Cameron,good luck when it gets a labour government,then it will have something to complain about.
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That should calm things down nicely.Carola said:
At least they appear to have moved on from banging on about Europe to banging on about gay marriage so it's progress of sorts.
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Confirmation that Nigel is a protest vote as if it were needed.
Galloway: Nigel Farage is in my league but "not as good"
http://www.londonlovesbusiness.com/business-news/politics/galloway-nigel-farage-is-in-my-league-but-not-as-good/5330.article0 -
Some more comment on Lefty fascists:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2013/05/some-anti-fascists-are-very-fascistic/
And UKIP no 1 news story on BBC news. We are calling it Farage Friday.0 -
The hunt is on!
Tim Montgomerie @TimMontgomerie 35s
One of Cameron's most senior aides describes Tory members as "loons" pic.twitter.com/vBhQEKWDLZ < I HOPE HIS IDENTITY WILL BE REVEALED SOON0 -
TimMontgomerie One of Cameron's most senior aides describes Tory members as "loons" pic.twitter.com/vBhQEKWDLZ < I HOPE HIS IDENTITY WILL BE REVEALED SOON
The witch hunt begins ;-)0 -
Evening all
I'm tempted to say, having been one myself, that activists in all parties have a touch of the loon about them. When I think back to the elections where I was telling at 7am or outside a dark village hall without a torch at 9.50pm having not seen a voter for the previous twenty minutes. Delivering and canvassing in all weathers, interminable meetings talking politics.
Yep, you may not have to be mad to be involved in politics but it's a big help.0 -
Snap mr pork ;-)0
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Voting record on gay rights is a disgrace0
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Was it Osbourne, strategising masterfully?0
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iainmartin1 .@JohnRentoul Yes, I know who it is. The person close to Cam will have to resign. @gallaghereditor
Please let it be oliver (hardy)letwin,please,please.please ;-)0 -
Your boy , Salmond , when faced with a Senate hearing put his tail between his legs and ran off. Galloway , differently , showed up and took the yanks to the cleaners. Respect is earned , not given.Mick_Pork said:Confirmation that Nigel is a protest vote as if it were needed.
Galloway: Nigel Farage is in my league but "not as good"
http://www.londonlovesbusiness.com/business-news/politics/galloway-nigel-farage-is-in-my-league-but-not-as-good/5330.article
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Do you celebrate it with a meal of chicken?MikeK said:Some more comment on Lefty fascists:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2013/05/some-anti-fascists-are-very-fascistic/
And UKIP no 1 news story on BBC news. We are calling it Farage Friday.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-22566180
Poor little diddums.
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Pork, you are getting very wormy today. Do give it a rest: have a fag or a cocktail or perhaps a steam bath to cool you down.Mick_Pork said:
Do you celebrate it with a meal of chicken?MikeK said:Some more comment on Lefty fascists:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2013/05/some-anti-fascists-are-very-fascistic/
And UKIP no 1 news story on BBC news. We are calling it Farage Friday.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-22566180
Poor little diddums.
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Interesting D Telegraph header. I hope Dave and co have thought this thro. I posted earlier today that I thought the word "marriage" was and always has been a word to describe a union between a man and a woman. They can change the law to say it does not mean that any more but for a lot of people it will still mean exactly that, and they will not like being identified as loons. Any suggestion of homophobia is likely to lead to torn up membership cards...0
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Possible.Tykejohnno said:iainmartin1 .@JohnRentoul Yes, I know who it is. The person close to Cam will have to resign. @gallaghereditor
Please let it be oliver (hardy)letwin,please,please.please ;-)
It's not going to be that hard to find out.
Tory activists are “mad, swivel-eyed loons”, according to one of David Cameron’s closest allies. The incendiary comment made at a private dinner this week is likely to plunge relations between the Prime Minister and his party to a new low. It offers a rare insight into the disregard and irritation felt by the Prime Minister’s inner circle
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Calm down dear.MikeK said:
Pork, you are getting very wormy today. Do give it a rest: have a fag or a cocktail or perhaps a steam bath to cool you down.Mick_Pork said:
Do you celebrate it with a meal of chicken?MikeK said:Some more comment on Lefty fascists:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2013/05/some-anti-fascists-are-very-fascistic/
And UKIP no 1 news story on BBC news. We are calling it Farage Friday.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-22566180
Poor little diddums.
Nigel's bubble is self-evidently not that hard to burst. The reason the News are going big on it are the reasons given this morning when it was pointed out that his petulant interview would be jumped on with glee since it shows how out of his depth and pitiful Farage looks when the mask slips.
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janemerrick23 Cameron ally "loons" comment is in (at least) 2 papers, so my money is on identity of source coming out within next 24 hours.
Another few thousand torn up tory membership.0 -
Good evening, everyone.
Saw a spot of the BBC news at ten. Surprised they seemed to consider Farage's fascist response to being called scum and told to go back to England as anything remotely worthy of criticism.
Hanging up may be another matter. I heard (for the firts time) a little of the interview. The interviewer stated UKIP was not part of the Scottish political scene, implying that Farage had no business in Scotland. I do think that's a view that's either stupid and unfair, or plain biased, but hanging up may not have been wise (I'd probably need to hear the whole thing, though, to make a proper judgement).0 -
They say a Cameron ally who as close links to the party machine and was at a dinner this week.
Osborne ;-)0 -
All political parties have some rather odd people in them. The worrying thing is that as engagement in politics gets less their influence grows.0
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Most of the papers carrying the 'loons' story, and tv sites. I'm hoping it's Osborne.0
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I've met activists from other parties - I see very little difference at all to be honest. What I would say is the activists from the dominant party in any given area are more arrogant but then I suppose it's so much easier for them.SeanT said:I've met a few activists, from parties across the spectrum, during my recent involvement in Cornish politics. They are all slightly loopy, but then, when you go canvassing, you realise nearly everyone in the world is slightly loopy.
I'd say the Tories are certainly no weirder than any others, and tend, if anything, to be a tiny bit smarter than Labourites, and less kinky than Lib Dems. But it's marginal.
As for the voters....I've canvassed In and around St Ives, Carbis Bay, Lelant, Gwithian and Marazion in my time. I've also canvassed in Greenwich, Carshalton and Bromley.
Believe me, lunacy isn't parochial.
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Do keep up, MorrisD. The BBC news are making Farage's Scottish journey their No 1 news item tonight (BBC1).Morris_Dancer said:Good evening, everyone.
Saw a spot of the BBC news at ten. Surprised they seemed to consider Farage's fascist response to being called scum and told to go back to England as anything remotely worthy of criticism.
Hanging up may be another matter. I heard (for the firts time) a little of the interview. The interviewer stated UKIP was not part of the Scottish political scene, implying that Farage had no business in Scotland. I do think that's a view that's either stupid and unfair, or plain biased, but hanging up may not have been wise (I'd probably need to hear the whole thing, though, to make a proper judgement).
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Mr. Jonathan, indeed, but it's not just 'oddness' that may be an issue was the pool of support/interest dwindles. We already see the party leaderships are drawn from pretty similar backgrounds and have mostly similar ideas (green, pro-EU, want to cut the deficit fairly slowly).0
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Unspoofalbe.Morris_Dancer said:The interviewer stated UKIP was not part of the Scottish political scene, implying that Farage had no business in Scotland. I do think that's a view that's either stupid and unfair, or plain biased, but hanging up may not have been wise (I'd probably need to hear the whole thing, though, to make a proper judgement).
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@jonathan.. Do you mean people (eg in your own party) like Ed Miliband. His "engagement " in politics has reduced to the point where he talks vacuous bollocks on any subject you care to mention.0
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The odd thing about the loons story is that the mystery guy is described as a Cameron ally.
I didn't know he had any left.0 -
Mr. Pork, I am indeed unspoofalbe.
More to the point, there's nothing wrong with new parties seeking to gain electoral success in areas where they haven't enjoyed it previously. The idea that new parties shouldn't try or that an Englishman who is pro-union has no place campaigning in Scotland is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.0 -
OH MY F£CKING GOD, CROSBY HAS GONE NUCLEAR ON SHAPPS
The power struggle at the heart of the Tory party is immense. Watch your back Osborne!!!0 -
MikeK said:
Do keep up, MorrisD. The BBC news are making Farage's Scottish journey their No 1 news item tonight (BBC1).Morris_Dancer said:Good evening, everyone.
Saw a spot of the BBC news at ten. Surprised they seemed to consider Farage's fascist response to being called scum and told to go back to England as anything remotely worthy of criticism.
Hanging up may be another matter. I heard (for the firts time) a little of the interview. The interviewer stated UKIP was not part of the Scottish political scene, implying that Farage had no business in Scotland. I do think that's a view that's either stupid and unfair, or plain biased, but hanging up may not have been wise (I'd probably need to hear the whole thing, though, to make a proper judgement).
Mike,all this coverage seems to be getting labour figures worried ;-)
johnprescott “@DavidPrescott: Is a day old story about Nigel Farage REALLY tonight's BBC 10 o'clock lead?” < Remarkable
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Mr. T, I hope you enjoyed your sojourn in Portugal.
Yeah, the so-called anti-racist protestors who shouted Farage should go back to England have not enhanced the reputation of Scotland, I fear.0 -
All that matters is the battle between the 4 Tories.;
Shapps
Crosby
Cameron
Osborne
Mixed messages, by the day, on how to take on UKIP cos they couldn't decide who was in charge.
Looks like Crosby has made the first of his moves.0 -
I haven't done any canvasing for over 50 years; it will be strange to go out and canvas for UKIP next year. Maybe I'll take an inside job .stodge said:
I've met activists from other parties - I see very little difference at all to be honest. What I would say is the activists from the dominant party in any given area are more arrogant but then I suppose it's so much easier for them.SeanT said:I've met a few activists, from parties across the spectrum, during my recent involvement in Cornish politics. They are all slightly loopy, but then, when you go canvassing, you realise nearly everyone in the world is slightly loopy.
I'd say the Tories are certainly no weirder than any others, and tend, if anything, to be a tiny bit smarter than Labourites, and less kinky than Lib Dems. But it's marginal.
As for the voters....I've canvassed In and around St Ives, Carbis Bay, Lelant, Gwithian and Marazion in my time. I've also canvassed in Greenwich, Carshalton and Bromley.
Believe me, lunacy isn't parochial.
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Bring back Ashcroft!!!!
At least he knows what he is talking about! All about Crosby wanting to be the big boy and getting the strategy all wrong!0 -
My god Ios,I agree.IOS said:OH MY F£CKING GOD, CROSBY HAS GONE NUCLEAR ON SHAPPS
The power struggle at the heart of the Tory party is immense. Watch your back Osborne!!!0 -
"The interviewer stated UKIP was not part of the Scottish political scene, implying that Farage had no business in Scotland. I do think that's a view that's either stupid and unfair, or plain biased"
Or alternatively it's sensible and fair comment. I don't think it's impossible that UKIP might eventually gain a toehold in Scotland (as James Cook pointed out, when you don't really exist as a force in Scotland, almost any publicity is good publicity), but it sure as hell hasn't happened yet.
If Farage thought UKIP was a major player in Scotland, why the hell was he launching his "Aberdeen Donside by-election campaign" in an Edinburgh pub?! Would he have launched his Eastleigh campaign at St James' Park?
SeanT -
"the whole event gave a definite impression of Scotland as a punchy, boorish, intolerant place, tainted with Anglophobia"
Where was the Anglophobia? All I heard was Farage being castigated for his anti-immigration stance.0 -
I'm merely disappointed you haven't worked these elusive chaps into your always amusing dinner anecdotes.SeanT said:The sensible Scots I know will surely have been irritated, if not dismayed.
'I was having dinner with my lefty scottish friends when one of them sprang across the table and held a knife to my throat when I mentioned the word Farage' etcetera.
Let's hope your acumen for scottish politics proves as fruitful as your gullibility in believing Cammie's ludicrous flounces and ridiculous Cast Iron pledges.0 -
It would make your year if it was Osborne,don't try to hide it ;-)tim said:We're going on a fop hunt
We're going to catch a big one
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Micky Pork or Micky Mouse?Mick_Pork said:
Do you celebrate it with a meal of chicken?MikeK said:Some more comment on Lefty fascists:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2013/05/some-anti-fascists-are-very-fascistic/
And UKIP no 1 news story on BBC news. We are calling it Farage Friday.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-22566180
Poor little diddums.0 -
That's inept straw man bullshit for you. It is indeed most silly.Morris_Dancer said:The idea that new parties shouldn't try or that an Englishman who is pro-union has no place campaigning in Scotland is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.
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F1: good news (found via Twitter):
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/107487
Basically, the FIA has stated tyre changes can only be made to enhance safety (ie reduce the risk of delamination), *not* to reduce the level of degradation or cut the number of pit stops needed.0 -
Roger Helmer and one of the Edinburgh students on news night Ian min.... Just sen the footage again and Stewart Wheeler is standing in the middle of it all looking confused! brilliant!0
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Or shapps.SeanT said:If it's Osborne that is sensational. But I don't believe it is, he is too smart to be so utterly idiotic. Surely?
Who does that leave....
How about Johnson's brother. Or Letwin. My money is on Letwin.
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Seems reasonable to me.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pork, I am indeed unspoofalbe.
More to the point, there's nothing wrong with new parties seeking to gain electoral success in areas where they haven't enjoyed it previously. The idea that new parties shouldn't try or that an Englishman who is pro-union has no place campaigning in Scotland is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.
Then again, even if pro-unionist have certainly been dismissive and arrogant at times, I've even read that the Prime Minister should not/has no business interferring, which shows an extreme view in the opposite direction (Yes, he may well have only 1 MP north of the border, but he's still in charge of the country the scots are still part of for the moment) so I clearly have no idea what reasonable is.0 -
It's not impossible any more than refuting the male golf club bores image is but it sure as hell won't be Farage who can do that. The seeming reluctance of Farage to use Diane James or anyone else to their full effect, while Nigel keeps things looking like a one man band, is simply weak and incompetent tactics.JamesKelly said:
Or alternatively it's sensible and fair comment. I don't think it's impossible that UKIP might eventually gain a toehold in Scotland (as James Cook pointed out, when you don't really exist as a force in Scotland, almost any publicity is good publicity), but it sure as hell hasn't happened yet.
If Farage thought UKIP was a major player in Scotland, why the hell was he launching his "Aberdeen Donside by-election campaign" in an Edinburgh pub?! Would he have launched his Eastleigh campaign at St James' Park?
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Very interesting thanks Rod.RodCrosby said:Euro 2014 Election Spreadsheet now has regional forecasts
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AswNZWYSW1uvdFFtVGpSQzVoVXpGM253UkhrTEdFbVE&usp=sharing
Looks like the LDs last seats will be held/lost in London, NorthWest, SouthWest and SouthEast in that order...
Why is it that even under the PR system that the Euros use, Labour still end up with 1 more seat than UKIP for 2% less votes?
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True words indeed. That's actually one reason Labour really got my goat toward the end, because their arrogance had become so think after 13 years in power, and one reason I fear for them getting back in so easily, as it will encourage it to return. And that's just a national government that lasted a bit too long for their own good, not those places which are virtually one party states for the Tories/Labour whoever - the atmosphere in such places must be so complacent and internally sour (as almost all disputes will be in-party only).stodge said:
I've met activists from other parties - I see very little difference at all to be honest. What I would say is the activists from the dominant party in any given area are more arrogant but then I suppose it's so much easier for them.SeanT said:I've met a few activists, from parties across the spectrum, during my recent involvement in Cornish politics. They are all slightly loopy, but then, when you go canvassing, you realise nearly everyone in the world is slightly loopy.
I'd say the Tories are certainly no weirder than any others, and tend, if anything, to be a tiny bit smarter than Labourites, and less kinky than Lib Dems. But it's marginal.
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From this morning tim:
' Not sure which countries you are talking about with mass unskilled immigration.
It's certainly not the UK
"Over 50% of immigrants to Canada and 47% of those to Britain have completed tertiary education, the highest levels among rich countries."
"Start with who is migrating where. Britain’s foreign-born population includes a higher proportion of people with tertiary education (broadly, university graduates and above) than in almost any other OECD country (see chart 1 for a selected list and here for the full data). Incomers are much more likely to be highly educated than native Brits, and that gap is growing." '
Which simply means that Britain has loads of highly educated immigrant chicken stuffers, chambermaids and car washers.
We might be attracting educated immigrants but unless we have the suitably skilled employment opportunities then all they do is compete with our own low skilled workers for low skilled employment.
With the result that our low skilled workers end up on welfare and foreign countries talented workers end up not using their talents over here while their own countries fail to develop.
Doesn't sound like the most productive use of human resources to me.
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@Mick_Pork
' while Nigel keeps things looking like a one man band, is simply weak and incompetent tactics.'
The one man band has worked well for the SNP.0 -
Who said they shouldn't? It's self-evidently how you accomplish that and Farage has given a masterclass in how not to do it.kle4 said:
Seems reasonable to me.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pork, I am indeed unspoofalbe.
More to the point, there's nothing wrong with new parties seeking to gain electoral success in areas where they haven't enjoyed it previously. The idea that new parties shouldn't try or that an Englishman who is pro-union has no place campaigning in Scotland is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.
As old_labour pointed out last night Annabel Goldie would never have turned tail from a bunch of rowdy shouting student protesters and then whined about it with a petulant interview.
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That mongoose wouldn't be named Tommy, would it?kle4 said:
Seems reasonable to me.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pork, I am indeed unspoofalbe.
More to the point, there's nothing wrong with new parties seeking to gain electoral success in areas where they haven't enjoyed it previously. The idea that new parties shouldn't try or that an Englishman who is pro-union has no place campaigning in Scotland is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.
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Not specific to UKIP (I can see why he's trying to expand north, but it's obviously a waste of time, so the sooner all this dies down, the better we can return to normal - Farage has had a bad time of it though, losing his demeanour of humour and appearing petty), but in fact I have seen comment that the Prime Minister has no business involving himself at all in the Independence debate, which is patently absurd, so while pro-unionists have often been guilty of arrogance, ignorance or dismissiveness, let us not pretend that all of their complaints are wholly without foundationMick_Pork said:
Who said they shouldn't?kle4 said:
Seems reasonable to me.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pork, I am indeed unspoofalbe.
More to the point, there's nothing wrong with new parties seeking to gain electoral success in areas where they haven't enjoyed it previously. The idea that new parties shouldn't try or that an Englishman who is pro-union has no place campaigning in Scotland is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.0 -
"Percentage of British people who want to leave the EU: 41%; percentage of Scots who want to leave the EU: 37%."kle4 said:
Not specific to UKIP (I can see why he's trying to expand north, but it's obviously a waste of time,Mick_Pork said:
Who said they shouldn't?kle4 said:
Seems reasonable to me.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pork, I am indeed unspoofalbe.
More to the point, there's nothing wrong with new parties seeking to gain electoral success in areas where they haven't enjoyed it previously. The idea that new parties shouldn't try or that an Englishman who is pro-union has no place campaigning in Scotland is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/3353599534035148800 -
I think Hammond my be the Conservative equivalent of Alan Johnson.
He looks the part but I'm not sure if there's any ability there.
But then again I'm increasingly coming to the opinion that lack of ability is a requirement among the political establishment.
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And yet that 41% in Britain overall does not mean UKIP are at 41% in the polls - UKIP not finding fertile ground is not just down to policy on the EU. Presenting themselves, despite their protests, as Tory-Hard in a land where the Tory name is lower than mud, probably cancels out any benefits accrued from being anti-EU.anotherDave said:
"Percentage of British people who want to leave the EU: 41%; percentage of Scots who want to leave the EU: 37%."kle4 said:
Not specific to UKIP (I can see why he's trying to expand north, but it's obviously a waste of time,Mick_Pork said:
Who said they shouldn't?kle4 said:
Seems reasonable to me.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pork, I am indeed unspoofalbe.
More to the point, there's nothing wrong with new parties seeking to gain electoral success in areas where they haven't enjoyed it previously. The idea that new parties shouldn't try or that an Englishman who is pro-union has no place campaigning in Scotland is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/335359953403514880
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This Item in the "The Star" Rotherham is about UKIPs win last night. But the real story are the comments below the story. If they are representative of South Yorkshire, Labour are doomed.
http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/labour-shock-as-ukip-takes-police-chief-s-old-safe-seat-1-5685330#.UZaJ3XttRPU.twitter0 -
It enables them to survive bitter political infighting as rivals don't see them as a threat until they are the only ones left standing.another_richard said:I think Hammond my be the Conservative equivalent of Alan Johnson.
He looks the part but I'm not sure if there's any ability there.
But then again I'm increasingly coming to the opinion that lack of ability is a requirement among the political establishment.
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"If [the comments] are representative of [area], [party] is doomed"MikeK said:This Item in the "The Star" Rotherham is about UKIPs win last night. But the real story are the comments below the story. If they are representative of South Yorkshire, Labour are doomed.
http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/labour-shock-as-ukip-takes-police-chief-s-old-safe-seat-1-5685330#.UZaJ3XttRPU.twitter
You have been on the internet before, surely? Labour may take some hits, but the day internet comments are representative of anything, I'll eat my hat (it's too tight anyway, may as well get some use out of it).
Fortunately I don't think anyone here genuinely believes they are representative of anything in the wider public, at least in wonkishness.
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I'm afraid that reference has passed me by.MikeK said:
That mongoose wouldn't be named Tommy, would it?kle4 said:
Seems reasonable to me.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pork, I am indeed unspoofalbe.
More to the point, there's nothing wrong with new parties seeking to gain electoral success in areas where they haven't enjoyed it previously. The idea that new parties shouldn't try or that an Englishman who is pro-union has no place campaigning in Scotland is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.0 -
Indeed it is. Puzzling why Cammie is so reluctant to debate with the leader of the SNP and first minister of scotland since that is the case. I'm sure on that seeming relactance to debate at least Farage and Salmond could agree. Though Cammie might be feeling bolder than he once did now where it comes to debating Farage. As indeed might Clegg and little Ed.kle4 said:but in fact I have seen comment that the Prime Minister has no business involving himself at all in the Independence debate, which is patently absurd
The critiques I remember were about the political process, not the debate. That process is over so Cammie's more than welcome to weigh in on the debate at any time. The more often the better as far as I am concerned.
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Aw, they've lost you that much already? No being enticed back? I hear GO and DC have something really incredible lined up to convince you and yours, like those adverts British Gas ran years ago about how x numbers of people had returned to them. They hope if they state it on TV people will think it's true and try to join the rush.SeanT said:
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Try Tommy Cooper. But really it was addressed Morris Dancer in the first place.kle4 said:
I'm afraid that reference has passed me by.MikeK said:
That mongoose wouldn't be named Tommy, would it?kle4 said:
Seems reasonable to me.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pork, I am indeed unspoofalbe.
More to the point, there's nothing wrong with new parties seeking to gain electoral success in areas where they haven't enjoyed it previously. The idea that new parties shouldn't try or that an Englishman who is pro-union has no place campaigning in Scotland is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.
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Electoral bias, just as under FPTP. Euro "PR" still uses constituencies, which always give rise to some measurable bias!Richard_Tyndall said:
Very interesting thanks Rod.RodCrosby said:Euro 2014 Election Spreadsheet now has regional forecasts
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AswNZWYSW1uvdFFtVGpSQzVoVXpGM253UkhrTEdFbVE&usp=sharing
Looks like the LDs last seats will be held/lost in London, NorthWest, SouthWest and SouthEast in that order...
Why is it that even under the PR system that the Euros use, Labour still end up with 1 more seat than UKIP for 2% less votes?
Possible causes.
1. Turnout effects, again. Lower turnouts in the stronger Labour areas.
2. Possibly size effects, or malapportionment. Stronger Labour constituencies have slightly more seats than their electorates would entitle them to.
3. An inverse correlation between district magnitude and Labour strength. Labour win big in the small DM constituencies, while still snaffling a proportional entitlement in the large DM constituencies.
I've not done a study of these to see which occur and by how much, but the effects are certainly smaller than under FPTP. There is also just the luck (or efficiency) factor in any constituency based system, and perhaps even more so in a system like D'Hondt. The anomaly you saw may indeed be just due to that, and may not hold through all possible configurations of the votes...0 -