Scotland? Yes. I am moderately familiar with Scotland.
If you are as familiar with it as you are with Bangkock then that is high praise indeed.
Not quite the same as knowing the political dynamic though, is it? As the scottish PB tories have proved.
I am not a Tory, and I predicted before the GE that the Tories would make zero progress in Scotland. The Scottish Tory brand is horribly damaged, perhaps terminally... though who knows what the referendum will do to the Scottish political scene, if and when it is lost by the SNP.
Are you as certain of that as you once were that banging on about Europe might even win Cammie the election? You certainly gave the impression of elation at the time he made his EU speech of a lifetime. And indeed the unforgettable flounce that wasn't.
One question no one has answered is where are the right wing working class Scots? We know they exist. In England they voted Tory or now, increasingly, UKIP.
Who do they vote for in Scotland? The SNP, aka the Tartan Tories?
LOL
Tartan tories indeed. No finer way to demonstrate your ignorance of the political dynamic that with that very old scottish labour smear. SLAB is considerably to the right of the SNP and is moving ever more so under the 'redoubtable' Lamont as little Ed pushes her into line. That some tories actually believe the 'Red Ed' stuff is as amusing as the notion itself.
More to the point, there's nothing wrong with new parties seeking to gain electoral success in areas where they haven't enjoyed it previously. The idea that new parties shouldn't try or that an Englishman who is pro-union has no place campaigning in Scotland is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.
Seems reasonable to me.
Who said they shouldn't?
Not specific to UKIP (I can see why he's trying to expand north, but it's obviously a waste of time,
"Percentage of British people who want to leave the EU: 41%; percentage of Scots who want to leave the EU: 37%."
And yet that 41% in Britain overall does not mean UKIP are at 41% in the polls - UKIP not finding fertile ground is not just down to policy on the EU. Presenting themselves, despite their protests, as Tory-Hard in a land where the Tory name is lower than mud, probably cancels out any benefits accrued from being anti-EU.
The latest TNS subsample has the Tories on 24% in Scotland, UKIP on 8%.
More to the point, there's nothing wrong with new parties seeking to gain electoral success in areas where they haven't enjoyed it previously. The idea that new parties shouldn't try or that an Englishman who is pro-union has no place campaigning in Scotland is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.
Seems reasonable to me.
Who said they shouldn't?
Not specific to UKIP (I can see why he's trying to expand north, but it's obviously a waste of time,
"Percentage of British people who want to leave the EU: 41%; percentage of Scots who want to leave the EU: 37%."
And yet that 41% in Britain overall does not mean UKIP are at 41% in the polls - UKIP not finding fertile ground is not just down to policy on the EU. Presenting themselves, despite their protests, as Tory-Hard in a land where the Tory name is lower than mud, probably cancels out any benefits accrued from being anti-EU.
The latest TNS subsample has the Tories on 24% in Scotland, UKIP on 8%.
The latest TNS subsample has the Tories on 24% in Scotland, UKIP on 8%... UKIP is the default anti-EU party, and Scotland seems to be much like England in their attitudes to the EU.
Subsamples? Good God man, don't you have any pride?
I very much doubt that the guy who made (allegedly ) the loon remark is a minister or even an MP - the DT and Times would have said if it was.It talks about him/her being a member of DC's "social circle". So not a member of the Govt but a social friend. Whoever said it deserves to be shot although the underlying point was not unfair (not the loons and swivel- eyed remarks) but the fact that many MP's this week voted the way they did so they didnl;t fall out with their constituency assoc's.Ezpect Nadine to be on therairwaves all day tomorow making hay over this. Expect also the day for a challenge to the PM to have been brought forward.
I was asking a genuine question: I don't know who the right wing working class Scots vote for. Someone like malcolmG on here, or redcliffe, is obviously right wing, yet they support the Nats, so it's far from obvious that the SNP are leftwing.
On the contrary. Both those posters know full well where the SNP are policy wise but they also know independence is the best possible solution for the scottish people which may also lead to a new settlement and realignment. Without it they simply do not support the tories in scotland, and who can blame them? That realignment might see a revival of a far more plausable tory alternative. Such an alternative was already mooted by Murdo in the scottish tory leadership battle but Cameron's placewoman Ruth ended that right quick. That's the dynamic that keeps hammering SLAB SCON and the scottish lib dems and it won't ever change without a wholesale rethink of their parties.
My bet is that these voters will peel away from your party if and when you lose the plebiscite, and then we might - just might - see a revival of Scots Toryism.
They aren't peeling away right now nor did they peel away in 2011. Competence does much to persuade those who might otherwise be less than keen to support the SNP. We are more than famliar with predictions of impending SNP doom thanks to labour and their "kill them stone dead" devolution nonsense.
Cammie on the other hand knows full well what happens when incompetence becomes the story thanks to Osbrowne. The omnishambles budget is still the most clear point where the tories began to lose it. When that was lost the protest vote and kippers really made merry.
The latest TNS subsample has the Tories on 24% in Scotland, UKIP on 8%... UKIP is the default anti-EU party, and Scotland seems to be much like England in their attitudes to the EU.
Subsamples? Good God man, don't you have any pride?
The numbers were right there, and they were on my side!
Isabel Hardman in the Speccie has an article listing possible runners in the (hypothetical and highly unlikely) event of a vacancy:
Theresa May Chris Grayling Justine Greening George Osborne Philip Hammond Andrea Leadsom Liam Fox David Davis Adam Afriyie Michael Gove Liz Truss Jesse Norman
The striking thing is the choice of talent. Of those, I'd be happy to have as leader any of May, Hammond, Leadsom, Gove, Truss or Norman (not to mention Boris, of course). I'd personally also be delighted if Osborne became PM, but recognise that his talents are as yet sadly unappreciated by the wider public. Justine Greening is good but not ready. Grayling's not bad, but sometimes hits the wrong note IMO. It's only by the time you get down to DD, Fox and Afriyie that you're beginning to wonder if they could do the job - and yet, every single one of those names is a more credible front-line politician than Ed Miliband.
Well, they're not really on 24% - that's a subsample of 70-odd people. Realistically in a general election the most they could hope for would be high teens.
Loon (n): Aquatic bird found in North America @itvnews Tory aide accuses activists of being "mad swivel-eyed loons" http://itv.co/10KAFIn
Can't be long before Dorries lays into the posh lads again surely?
This is a hell of a scoop by the Telegraph incidently. Pure political dynamite tossed into the chumocracy at precisely the worst possible time for them. Poor old incompetent fops.
" Twenty years hence this weather May tempt us from office stools, We may be slow on the feather And seem to the boys old fools, But we'll still swing together And swear by the best of schools, But we'll still swing together And swear by the best of schools."
Nicholas Watt @nicholaswatt Warm pint of bitter for local Tory chairs who defect to #UKIP when senior Tory who says they = 'loons' is named @Nigel_Farage tells me
"It happened in 1992, against the trend. And the dice are probably loaded that way again..."
In what sense?
1. Scotland's own Broon got a big sympathy vote (and swing) against the trend in 2010. He's no longer leading the Labour party. A tosser from London is.
2. The SNP may well eat into the Labour vote in 2015, more than into the Tories. Alternatively, SNP collapse post referendum failure may boost the Tories.
3. LibDem collapse (in votes at least) adds another wildcard.
4. I expect a relatively modest UK swing to Labour in 2015, so it's not so hard to conceive a region going the opposite way.
5. Scotland often bucks the trend. 1959, 1974F, 1979, 1992, 2010.
6. There was a small swing to the Tories in the Holyrood elections, 2011.
"It happened in 1992, against the trend. And the dice are probably loaded that way again..."
In what sense?
No Gordon Brown as Labour leader for one thing. There was a swing *to* Labour in 2010 so a swing back is a distinct possibility if the economy picks up and the government gets credit for it (after all, pretty much everything else except tax and foreign policy is Holyrood-devolved anyway).
David Cameron ally: Tory activists are mad, swivel-eyed loons
Senior Tory made remarks in response to question about MPs who voted for EU referendum amendment in Queen's speech
Downing Street is wrestling with a dilemma over how to respond after a close ally of David Cameron was alleged to have described Tory activists as "mad, swivel-eyed loons".
In remarks immediately seized on by Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, the senior Tory said that the party's MPs have to rebel against the leadership because they face pressure from hardline associations.
Farage, who knows the identity of the Tory, tweeted: "If you are a Conservative supporter who believes in Ukip ideas then your party hates you. Come and join us."
The senior Tory made the remarks – in earshot of journalists – after being asked about the decision of 116 Tory MPs to defy the prime minister and vote in favour of an amendment regretting the absence of a EU referendum in the Queen's speech.
The Conservative said: "It's fine. There's really no problem. The MPs just have to do it because the associations tell them to, and the associations are all mad, swivel-eyed loons."
Downing Street faced pressure on Friday evening because the Tory has been well known to the prime minister for many years and is due to play a significant role in the party's preparations for the general election. The Times, Daily Telegraph, the Daily Mirror, who all reported the remarks and who know the identity of the Tory, declined to name the senior member of the prime minister's circle.
The wording re the loons story is interesting. You'd expect "cabinet minister" or "senior Party official" were it the sort of names being speculated on here. It's not, which suggests more kitchen cabinet than the real thing.
' The Times, Daily Telegraph, the Daily Mirror, who all reported the remarks and who know the identity of the Tory, declined to name the senior member of the prime minister's circle.'
I tried to post on the new thread, but got a "discussion ID required" - what's that?
I assume the journalist concerned was present on terms of a confidential briefing and just overheard the remark because he happened to be there, but feels he can't leak it. But I'd think it will leak anyway soon enough. Allegedly Farage knows who it is - hard to see why he feels he's bound by omerta too.
According to the Telegraph the Tory has been "socially" close to Cameron for many years, and the other leaks say he's due to play a key role in the campaign, which narrows it down. Is Cameron socially close to Crosby? It sounds the sort of thing he might say - it's much too crude for Letwin (who would say something like "Members sometimes seem not altogether in touch with reality"). It echoes Cameron's own comments on UKIP voters, of course.
Far too many clues out there for it not to leak I would think. Nor do I think number 10 can pretend it didn't happen. The furious phone calls to CCHQ from tory MPs getting a roasting from constituency associations will likely be starting already. This looks like a sacrificial lamb is most definitely required.
Hammond is positioning himself as a post fop Chancellor surely?
Once the party is rid of Cameron and Osborne they'll want people like Hammond around, but the gay marriage stuff he's using suggests he doesnt want to be leader, unless it's of a rump party after a landslide, bit unlikely.
But it'd buy him the Chancellorship once the fops have been removed, under a more progressive leader
I fail to understand what people see in Hammond. A boring version of John Major.
Comments
LOL
Tartan tories indeed. No finer way to demonstrate your ignorance of the political dynamic that with that very old scottish labour smear. SLAB is considerably to the right of the SNP and is moving ever more so under the 'redoubtable' Lamont as little Ed pushes her into line. That some tories actually believe the 'Red Ed' stuff is as amusing as the notion itself.
http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/news-and-events/ukip-support-double-the-size-of-liberal-democrats
http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/assets-uploaded/documents/voting-intentions-data-tables-17-may-2013_1368783364.pdf (table 5, page 10)
UKIP is the default anti-EU party, and Scotland seems to be much like England in their attitudes to the EU.
Doesn't look like I'm the one who needs to calm down. On the contrary. Both those posters know full well where the SNP are policy wise but they also know independence is the best possible solution for the scottish people which may also lead to a new settlement and realignment. Without it they simply do not support the tories in scotland, and who can blame them? That realignment might see a revival of a far more plausable tory alternative. Such an alternative was already mooted by Murdo in the scottish tory leadership battle but Cameron's placewoman Ruth ended that right quick. That's the dynamic that keeps hammering SLAB SCON and the scottish lib dems and it won't ever change without a wholesale rethink of their parties.
They aren't peeling away right now nor did they peel away in 2011. Competence does much to persuade those who might otherwise be less than keen to support the SNP. We are more than famliar with predictions of impending SNP doom thanks to labour and their "kill them stone dead" devolution nonsense.
Cammie on the other hand knows full well what happens when incompetence becomes the story thanks to Osbrowne. The omnishambles budget is still the most clear point where the tories began to lose it. When that was lost the protest vote and kippers really made merry.
Isabel Hardman in the Speccie has an article listing possible runners in the (hypothetical and highly unlikely) event of a vacancy:
Theresa May
Chris Grayling
Justine Greening
George Osborne
Philip Hammond
Andrea Leadsom
Liam Fox
David Davis
Adam Afriyie
Michael Gove
Liz Truss
Jesse Norman
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/05/hammond-on-manoeuvres-the-other-tory-mps-who-fancy-a-crack-at-the-leadership/
The striking thing is the choice of talent. Of those, I'd be happy to have as leader any of May, Hammond, Leadsom, Gove, Truss or Norman (not to mention Boris, of course). I'd personally also be delighted if Osborne became PM, but recognise that his talents are as yet sadly unappreciated by the wider public. Justine Greening is good but not ready. Grayling's not bad, but sometimes hits the wrong note IMO. It's only by the time you get down to DD, Fox and Afriyie that you're beginning to wonder if they could do the job - and yet, every single one of those names is a more credible front-line politician than Ed Miliband.
Still, it ain't gonna happen.
"That 24% must be thinly spread indeed."
Well, they're not really on 24% - that's a subsample of 70-odd people. Realistically in a general election the most they could hope for would be high teens.
This is a hell of a scoop by the Telegraph incidently. Pure political dynamite tossed into the chumocracy at precisely the worst possible time for them. Poor old incompetent fops.
Nessie has said she doesn't believe in Farage
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=leU1kbtIZUI
" Twenty years hence this weather
May tempt us from office stools,
We may be slow on the feather
And seem to the boys old fools,
But we'll still swing together
And swear by the best of schools,
But we'll still swing together
And swear by the best of schools."
It happened in 1992, against the trend. And the dice are probably loaded that way again...
In what sense?
dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2326369/SIMON-HEFFER-A-contender-The-grey-man-David-Camerons-nemesis.html?ito=feeds-newsxml
And to think, you thought you'd be "quite good" at it.
Hope it's not Osborne, might give Dave the excuse to replace the liability.
True enough and probably the best possible result for the tories in the long run.
He's definitely a close ally but he seemed to be doing his utmost to woo the grassroots with his EU posturing lately.
Whoever it is they had better pray they can remain hidden.
1. Scotland's own Broon got a big sympathy vote (and swing) against the trend in 2010. He's no longer leading the Labour party. A tosser from London is.
2. The SNP may well eat into the Labour vote in 2015, more than into the Tories. Alternatively, SNP collapse post referendum failure may boost the Tories.
3. LibDem collapse (in votes at least) adds another wildcard.
4. I expect a relatively modest UK swing to Labour in 2015, so it's not so hard to conceive a region going the opposite way.
5. Scotland often bucks the trend. 1959, 1974F, 1979, 1992, 2010.
6. There was a small swing to the Tories in the Holyrood elections, 2011.
due to play a significant role
Someone is toast...
' The Times, Daily Telegraph, the Daily Mirror, who all reported the remarks and who know the identity of the Tory, declined to name the senior member of the prime minister's circle.'
Why?
I assume the journalist concerned was present on terms of a confidential briefing and just overheard the remark because he happened to be there, but feels he can't leak it. But I'd think it will leak anyway soon enough. Allegedly Farage knows who it is - hard to see why he feels he's bound by omerta too.
New thread is working BTW Nick.