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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Introducing the new third favourite for Dave’s job – Defen
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Introducing the new third favourite for Dave’s job – Defence Secretary Philip Hammond
The money goes on Phillip Hammond for next CON leader.Hills move his price from 10/1 to 8/1. May is 4/1 Boris 5/1 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
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20s? 33s? 100s?
SeanT said:
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Quite right. Ridiculous document. It's saying you HAVE to agree with multiculturalism to be allowed a role in local politics. This egregious, sinister bullshit is one very significant reason people vote UKIP in the first place.
The atrocious thing is that, presumably, the local Tories just meekly swallowed this crap, and signed on the dotted line.
They did! Hence the rise if UKIP.
However, his time at the MOD has not exactly been a resounding success.
Have overdone the coffee so need beer to counteract it.
European car sales up for the first time in 18 months thanks to a 15 % increase in the UK.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22566394
Or are such betting posts to be mocked on here now? A somewhat curious stance for a political betting site admittedly.
When was your last betting post btw?
I've worked in trading rooms of betting firms for years and there is always one person who, no matter what bet someone mentions, is on already a better price
Generally when they back a loser they were unlucky or it was the jockeys fault etc and when they back a winner it's solely down to their genius!
Tim is good at finding the value though, no doubt about it
•Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
•Paul Ryan (R) 40%
•Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
•Marco Rubio (R) 38%
•Mark Warner (D) 50%
•Paul Ryan (R) 37%
•Mark Warner (D) 51%
•Marco Rubio (R) 33%
Point being I don't that often since I prefer to leave it to those who have a good track record and Tim is head and shoulders above most on here for that. He might not have the lucrative ability to shift the odds in the political betting market but he still seems to make a killing often enough off the bookies.
If you are on winners at nice prices you can stand a few losers... I saw you did well at Eastleigh and South Shields... The early prices on these markets are way wrong sometimes aren't they? Shows odds compilers for what they are, betfair trackers, and politics is one of the few betting markets left where knowledge and form is not easy to come by.
Mug was a bit harsh though I shouldn't have said that, sorry
No need to apologise. I routinely get far worse than that and it has never put me off posting on here. I welcome the betting posts because they are so often clearly unpartisan data gleaned from the fast moving events in politics.
The more useful extrapolations using them and good polling is, I suspect, what keeps most coming back here. Though there is much to be said for those who demonstrate a 'feel' for how politics are going rather than merely dry calculation.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
'The startling @jameskirkup splash comes from v senior figure with strong social connections to Cameron. 'Loons' blamed for EU/gay hard line'
An undercover UKIPper perhaps.
Former minister Peter Hain – a close ally of the Labour leader – tells Andrew Grice that his party must start making overtures to the Lib Dems
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-next-coalition-why-ed-miliband-needs-to-get-nick-cleggs-number-8621776.html
Labour and hain not confident of a labour majority,interesting.
Yes it's one of the few betting markets where a feel for events can trump ratings and stats, although a combo of both is best
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/468506/20130517/george-galloway-nigel-farage-ukip-edinburgh-bbc.htm
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AswNZWYSW1uvdFFtVGpSQzVoVXpGM253UkhrTEdFbVE&usp=sharing
Looks like the LDs last seats will be held/lost in London, NorthWest, SouthWest and SouthEast in that order...
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/335496750813040640/photo/1
The telegraph really has it in for Cameron,good luck when it gets a labour government,then it will have something to complain about.
At least they appear to have moved on from banging on about Europe to banging on about gay marriage so it's progress of sorts.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2013/05/some-anti-fascists-are-very-fascistic/
And UKIP no 1 news story on BBC news. We are calling it Farage Friday.
The witch hunt begins ;-)
I'm tempted to say, having been one myself, that activists in all parties have a touch of the loon about them. When I think back to the elections where I was telling at 7am or outside a dark village hall without a torch at 9.50pm having not seen a voter for the previous twenty minutes. Delivering and canvassing in all weathers, interminable meetings talking politics.
Yep, you may not have to be mad to be involved in politics but it's a big help.
Please let it be oliver (hardy)letwin,please,please.please ;-)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-22566180
Poor little diddums.
It's not going to be that hard to find out.
Tory activists are “mad, swivel-eyed loons”, according to one of David Cameron’s closest allies. The incendiary comment made at a private dinner this week is likely to plunge relations between the Prime Minister and his party to a new low. It offers a rare insight into the disregard and irritation felt by the Prime Minister’s inner circle
Nigel's bubble is self-evidently not that hard to burst. The reason the News are going big on it are the reasons given this morning when it was pointed out that his petulant interview would be jumped on with glee since it shows how out of his depth and pitiful Farage looks when the mask slips.
Another few thousand torn up tory membership.
Saw a spot of the BBC news at ten. Surprised they seemed to consider Farage's fascist response to being called scum and told to go back to England as anything remotely worthy of criticism.
Hanging up may be another matter. I heard (for the firts time) a little of the interview. The interviewer stated UKIP was not part of the Scottish political scene, implying that Farage had no business in Scotland. I do think that's a view that's either stupid and unfair, or plain biased, but hanging up may not have been wise (I'd probably need to hear the whole thing, though, to make a proper judgement).
Osborne ;-)
As for the voters....I've canvassed In and around St Ives, Carbis Bay, Lelant, Gwithian and Marazion in my time. I've also canvassed in Greenwich, Carshalton and Bromley.
Believe me, lunacy isn't parochial.
I didn't know he had any left.
More to the point, there's nothing wrong with new parties seeking to gain electoral success in areas where they haven't enjoyed it previously. The idea that new parties shouldn't try or that an Englishman who is pro-union has no place campaigning in Scotland is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.
The power struggle at the heart of the Tory party is immense. Watch your back Osborne!!!
Mike,all this coverage seems to be getting labour figures worried ;-)
johnprescott “@DavidPrescott: Is a day old story about Nigel Farage REALLY tonight's BBC 10 o'clock lead?” < Remarkable
Yeah, the so-called anti-racist protestors who shouted Farage should go back to England have not enhanced the reputation of Scotland, I fear.
Shapps
Crosby
Cameron
Osborne
Mixed messages, by the day, on how to take on UKIP cos they couldn't decide who was in charge.
Looks like Crosby has made the first of his moves.
At least he knows what he is talking about! All about Crosby wanting to be the big boy and getting the strategy all wrong!
Or alternatively it's sensible and fair comment. I don't think it's impossible that UKIP might eventually gain a toehold in Scotland (as James Cook pointed out, when you don't really exist as a force in Scotland, almost any publicity is good publicity), but it sure as hell hasn't happened yet.
If Farage thought UKIP was a major player in Scotland, why the hell was he launching his "Aberdeen Donside by-election campaign" in an Edinburgh pub?! Would he have launched his Eastleigh campaign at St James' Park?
SeanT -
"the whole event gave a definite impression of Scotland as a punchy, boorish, intolerant place, tainted with Anglophobia"
Where was the Anglophobia? All I heard was Farage being castigated for his anti-immigration stance.
'I was having dinner with my lefty scottish friends when one of them sprang across the table and held a knife to my throat when I mentioned the word Farage' etcetera.
Let's hope your acumen for scottish politics proves as fruitful as your gullibility in believing Cammie's ludicrous flounces and ridiculous Cast Iron pledges.
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/107487
Basically, the FIA has stated tyre changes can only be made to enhance safety (ie reduce the risk of delamination), *not* to reduce the level of degradation or cut the number of pit stops needed.
Then again, even if pro-unionist have certainly been dismissive and arrogant at times, I've even read that the Prime Minister should not/has no business interferring, which shows an extreme view in the opposite direction (Yes, he may well have only 1 MP north of the border, but he's still in charge of the country the scots are still part of for the moment) so I clearly have no idea what reasonable is.
Why is it that even under the PR system that the Euros use, Labour still end up with 1 more seat than UKIP for 2% less votes?
' Not sure which countries you are talking about with mass unskilled immigration.
It's certainly not the UK
"Over 50% of immigrants to Canada and 47% of those to Britain have completed tertiary education, the highest levels among rich countries."
"Start with who is migrating where. Britain’s foreign-born population includes a higher proportion of people with tertiary education (broadly, university graduates and above) than in almost any other OECD country (see chart 1 for a selected list and here for the full data). Incomers are much more likely to be highly educated than native Brits, and that gap is growing." '
Which simply means that Britain has loads of highly educated immigrant chicken stuffers, chambermaids and car washers.
We might be attracting educated immigrants but unless we have the suitably skilled employment opportunities then all they do is compete with our own low skilled workers for low skilled employment.
With the result that our low skilled workers end up on welfare and foreign countries talented workers end up not using their talents over here while their own countries fail to develop.
Doesn't sound like the most productive use of human resources to me.
' while Nigel keeps things looking like a one man band, is simply weak and incompetent tactics.'
The one man band has worked well for the SNP.
As old_labour pointed out last night Annabel Goldie would never have turned tail from a bunch of rowdy shouting student protesters and then whined about it with a petulant interview.
Not quite the same as knowing the political dynamic though, is it? As the scottish PB tories have proved.
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/335359953403514880
He looks the part but I'm not sure if there's any ability there.
But then again I'm increasingly coming to the opinion that lack of ability is a requirement among the political establishment.
http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/labour-shock-as-ukip-takes-police-chief-s-old-safe-seat-1-5685330#.UZaJ3XttRPU.twitter
You have been on the internet before, surely? Labour may take some hits, but the day internet comments are representative of anything, I'll eat my hat (it's too tight anyway, may as well get some use out of it).
Fortunately I don't think anyone here genuinely believes they are representative of anything in the wider public, at least in wonkishness.
The critiques I remember were about the political process, not the debate. That process is over so Cammie's more than welcome to weigh in on the debate at any time. The more often the better as far as I am concerned.
Possible causes.
1. Turnout effects, again. Lower turnouts in the stronger Labour areas.
2. Possibly size effects, or malapportionment. Stronger Labour constituencies have slightly more seats than their electorates would entitle them to.
3. An inverse correlation between district magnitude and Labour strength. Labour win big in the small DM constituencies, while still snaffling a proportional entitlement in the large DM constituencies.
I've not done a study of these to see which occur and by how much, but the effects are certainly smaller than under FPTP. There is also just the luck (or efficiency) factor in any constituency based system, and perhaps even more so in a system like D'Hondt. The anomaly you saw may indeed be just due to that, and may not hold through all possible configurations of the votes...