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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Introducing the new third favourite for Dave’s job – Defen

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Introducing the new third favourite for Dave’s job – Defence Secretary Philip Hammond

The money goes on Phillip Hammond for next CON leader.Hills move his price from 10/1 to 8/1. May is 4/1 Boris 5/1 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

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  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    Lets guess what price Tims on at...

    20s? 33s? 100s?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,675
    "We are all Kippers now!"

    :)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 26,352
    I hope not. His comments today on gay marriage were ill considered.Much like Farage's have been.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2013
    FPT:
    SeanT said:
    » show previous quotes
    Quite right. Ridiculous document. It's saying you HAVE to agree with multiculturalism to be allowed a role in local politics. This egregious, sinister bullshit is one very significant reason people vote UKIP in the first place.

    The atrocious thing is that, presumably, the local Tories just meekly swallowed this crap, and signed on the dotted line.

    They did! Hence the rise if UKIP.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    I can't see Hammond as a leader. First follower yes, but leader? Still, stranger things have happened.
    However, his time at the MOD has not exactly been a resounding success.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,235
    Hello from sunny Cardiff. Hate typing from a mobile, so off to find a pub.
    Have overdone the coffee so need beer to counteract it.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    I think Hammond better matches the likely mood in 2015 if the Conservatives lose than Boris, certainly. May is closer but I don't see many other options for how I think the party will feel. He's Eurosceptic, and seen to get the job done. MikeK says his "time has not exactly been a resounding success" but he 'balanced the books for a first time in a decade' (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-18054731) is seen to be adapting the military to a new climate (and so might do so for a Tory party for a new climate on welfare, immigration etc.) is Eurosceptic, and not seen to be in the Cameron-Osborne clique.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    More good news.

    European car sales up for the first time in 18 months thanks to a 15 % increase in the UK.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22566394
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Grandiose said:

    I think Hammond better matches the likely mood in 2015 if the Conservatives lose than Boris, certainly. May is closer but I don't see many other options for how I think the party will feel. He's Eurosceptic, and seen to get the job done. MikeK says his "time has not exactly been a resounding success" but he 'balanced the books for a first time in a decade' (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-18054731) is seen to be adapting the military to a new climate (and so might do so for a Tory party for a new climate on welfare, immigration etc.) is Eurosceptic, and not seen to be in the Cameron-Osborne clique.

    But whats the use of balancing the books if at the end of it Britain has a laughingly miniscule defence deterrent.

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,246
    Nice one.
    samonipad said:

    Lets guess what price Tims on at...

    20s? 33s? 100s?

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    samonipad said:

    Lets guess what price Tims on at...

    20s? 33s? 100s?

    Presumably he can say himself over who and what odds. Didn't he get on May at good ones?
    Or are such betting posts to be mocked on here now? A somewhat curious stance for a political betting site admittedly.
  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    edited May 2013
    Mick_Pork said:

    samonipad said:

    Lets guess what price Tims on at...

    20s? 33s? 100s?

    Presumably he can say himself over who and what odds. Didn't he get on May at good ones?
    Or are such betting posts to be mocked on here now? A somewhat curious stance for a political betting site admittedly.
    Just a joke you mug

    When was your last betting post btw?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Hammogadon. Beyond boring.
  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182

    Nice one.

    samonipad said:

    Lets guess what price Tims on at...

    20s? 33s? 100s?

    Haha cheers!

    I've worked in trading rooms of betting firms for years and there is always one person who, no matter what bet someone mentions, is on already a better price

    Generally when they back a loser they were unlucky or it was the jockeys fault etc and when they back a winner it's solely down to their genius!

    Tim is good at finding the value though, no doubt about it
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,246
    I like to publish my bets here on PB before events happen. Sometimes you look stupid but sometimes you look like prophet.
    samonipad said:

    Nice one.

    samonipad said:

    Lets guess what price Tims on at...

    20s? 33s? 100s?

    Haha cheers!

    I've worked in trading rooms of betting firms for years and there is always one person who, no matter what bet someone mentions, is on already a better price

    Generally when they back a loser they were unlucky or it was the jockeys fault etc and when they back a winner it's solely down to their genius!

    Tim is good at finding the value though, no doubt about it
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,675
    We've got Hammond and May, but where does that leave Clarkson?

    :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,143
    edited May 2013
    Always thought Hammond looked like a sensible candidate to lead CON after defeat in 2015. Just topped up £7 at 23.18 o_O on Betfair.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,235
    Very good!

    Hammogadon. Beyond boring.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,969
    Quinnipiac Virginia General 2016

    •Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
    •Paul Ryan (R) 40%
    •Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
    •Marco Rubio (R) 38%
    •Mark Warner (D) 50%
    •Paul Ryan (R) 37%
    •Mark Warner (D) 51%
    •Marco Rubio (R) 33%
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    samonipad said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    samonipad said:

    Lets guess what price Tims on at...

    20s? 33s? 100s?

    Presumably he can say himself over who and what odds. Didn't he get on May at good ones?
    Or are such betting posts to be mocked on here now? A somewhat curious stance for a political betting site admittedly.
    Just a joke you mug
    Calm down dear. It was merely an observation since betting posts on here from those who know what they are talking about are sadly quite rare these days. You kippers need to chill lest you think everything is a "hate filled question" and run away in the huff. ;)
    samonipad said:

    When was your last betting post btw?

    Offhand it might merely have been a retweet of shortening odds on the tory leadership contenders a while back when Cammie's EU madness was reaching John Major levels and his backbenchers went back to running about like headless chickens. Might even have been something on UKIP after the locals come to that.

    Point being I don't that often since I prefer to leave it to those who have a good track record and Tim is head and shoulders above most on here for that. He might not have the lucrative ability to shift the odds in the political betting market but he still seems to make a killing often enough off the bookies.

  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182

    I like to publish my bets here on PB before events happen. Sometimes you look stupid but sometimes you look like prophet.

    samonipad said:

    Nice one.

    samonipad said:

    Lets guess what price Tims on at...

    20s? 33s? 100s?

    Haha cheers!

    I've worked in trading rooms of betting firms for years and there is always one person who, no matter what bet someone mentions, is on already a better price

    Generally when they back a loser they were unlucky or it was the jockeys fault etc and when they back a winner it's solely down to their genius!

    Tim is good at finding the value though, no doubt about it
    Yes those big price tips make good headlines for the threads too

    If you are on winners at nice prices you can stand a few losers... I saw you did well at Eastleigh and South Shields... The early prices on these markets are way wrong sometimes aren't they? Shows odds compilers for what they are, betfair trackers, and politics is one of the few betting markets left where knowledge and form is not easy to come by.
  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    Mick_Pork said:

    samonipad said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    samonipad said:

    Lets guess what price Tims on at...

    20s? 33s? 100s?

    Presumably he can say himself over who and what odds. Didn't he get on May at good ones?
    Or are such betting posts to be mocked on here now? A somewhat curious stance for a political betting site admittedly.
    Just a joke you mug
    Calm down dear. It was merely an observation since betting posts on here from those who know what they are talking about are sadly quite rare these days. You kippers need to chill lest you think everything is a "hate filled question" and run away in the huff. ;)
    samonipad said:

    When was your last betting post btw?

    Offhand it might merely have been a retweet of shortening odds on the tory leadership contenders a while back when Cammie's EU madness was reaching John Major levels and his backbenchers went back to running about like headless chickens. Might even have been something on UKIP after the locals come to that.

    Point being I don't that often since I prefer to leave it to those who have a good track record and Tim is head and shoulders above most on here for that. He might not have the handy ability to shift the odds in the political betting market but he still seems to make a killing often enough off the bookies.

    Undoubtably so, I was joking and you bit... Then accused me of biting haha!!

    Mug was a bit harsh though I shouldn't have said that, sorry

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    samonipad said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    samonipad said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    samonipad said:

    Lets guess what price Tims on at...

    20s? 33s? 100s?

    Presumably he can say himself over who and what odds. Didn't he get on May at good ones?
    Or are such betting posts to be mocked on here now? A somewhat curious stance for a political betting site admittedly.
    Just a joke you mug
    Calm down dear. It was merely an observation since betting posts on here from those who know what they are talking about are sadly quite rare these days. You kippers need to chill lest you think everything is a "hate filled question" and run away in the huff. ;)
    samonipad said:

    When was your last betting post btw?

    Offhand it might merely have been a retweet of shortening odds on the tory leadership contenders a while back when Cammie's EU madness was reaching John Major levels and his backbenchers went back to running about like headless chickens. Might even have been something on UKIP after the locals come to that.

    Point being I don't that often since I prefer to leave it to those who have a good track record and Tim is head and shoulders above most on here for that. He might not have the handy ability to shift the odds in the political betting market but he still seems to make a killing often enough off the bookies.

    Undoubtably so, I was joking and you bit... Then accused me of biting haha!!

    Mug was a bit harsh though I shouldn't have said that, sorry


    No need to apologise. I routinely get far worse than that and it has never put me off posting on here. I welcome the betting posts because they are so often clearly unpartisan data gleaned from the fast moving events in politics.

    The more useful extrapolations using them and good polling is, I suspect, what keeps most coming back here. Though there is much to be said for those who demonstrate a 'feel' for how politics are going rather than merely dry calculation.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    edited May 2013
    'Grassroots Tory activists are 'mad swivel-eyed loons' a/c to one of Cameron's closest allies. That'll boost Tory morale. Our splash tmrw' gallagher

    'The startling @jameskirkup splash comes from v senior figure with strong social connections to Cameron. 'Loons' blamed for EU/gay hard line'

    An undercover UKIPper perhaps.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited May 2013
    The next coalition? Why Ed Miliband needs to get Nick Clegg's number

    Former minister Peter Hain – a close ally of the Labour leader – tells Andrew Grice that his party must start making overtures to the Lib Dems

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-next-coalition-why-ed-miliband-needs-to-get-nick-cleggs-number-8621776.html

    Labour and hain not confident of a labour majority,interesting.
  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    edited May 2013
    Mick_Pork said:

    samonipad said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    samonipad said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    samonipad said:

    Lets guess what price Tims on at...

    20s? 33s? 100s?

    Presumably he can say himself over who and what odds. Didn't he get on May at good ones?
    Or are such betting posts to be mocked on here now? A somewhat curious stance for a political betting site admittedly.
    Just a joke you mug
    Calm down dear. It was merely an observation since betting posts on here from those who know what they are talking about are sadly quite rare these days. You kippers need to chill lest you think everything is a "hate filled question" and run away in the huff. ;)
    samonipad said:

    When was your last betting post btw?

    Offhand it might merely have been a retweet of shortening odds on the tory leadership contenders a while back when Cammie's EU madness was reaching John Major levels and his backbenchers went back to running about like headless chickens. Might even have been something on UKIP after the locals come to that.

    Point being I don't that often since I prefer to leave it to those who have a good track record and Tim is head and shoulders above most on here for that. He might not have the handy ability to shift the odds in the political betting market but he still seems to make a killing often enough off the bookies.

    Undoubtably so, I was joking and you bit... Then accused me of biting haha!!

    Mug was a bit harsh though I shouldn't have said that, sorry


    No need to apologise. I routinely get far worse than that and it has never put me off posting on here. I welcome the betting posts because they are so often clearly unpartisan data gleaned from the fast moving events in politics.

    The more useful extrapolations using them and good polling is, I suspect, what keeps most coming back here. Though there is much to be said for those who demonstrate a 'feel' for how politics are going rather than merely dry calculation.
    Inside info helps too... A mate of mine was on Cameron at 10s and Osborne at 12s (I think) to be next Tory leader in 2005 through a contact in the party machine

    Yes it's one of the few betting markets where a feel for events can trump ratings and stats, although a combo of both is best

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    samonipad said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    samonipad said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    samonipad said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    samonipad said:

    Lets guess what price Tims on at...

    20s? 33s? 100s?

    Presumably he can say himself over who and what odds. Didn't he get on May at good ones?
    Or are such betting posts to be mocked on here now? A somewhat curious stance for a political betting site admittedly.
    Just a joke you mug
    Calm down dear. It was merely an observation since betting posts on here from those who know what they are talking about are sadly quite rare these days. You kippers need to chill lest you think everything is a "hate filled question" and run away in the huff. ;)
    samonipad said:

    When was your last betting post btw?

    Offhand it might merely have been a retweet of shortening odds on the tory leadership contenders a while back when Cammie's EU madness was reaching John Major levels and his backbenchers went back to running about like headless chickens. Might even have been something on UKIP after the locals come to that.

    Point being I don't that often since I prefer to leave it to those who have a good track record and Tim is head and shoulders above most on here for that. He might not have the handy ability to shift the odds in the political betting market but he still seems to make a killing often enough off the bookies.

    Undoubtably so, I was joking and you bit... Then accused me of biting haha!!

    Mug was a bit harsh though I shouldn't have said that, sorry


    No need to apologise. I routinely get far worse than that and it has never put me off posting on here. I welcome the betting posts because they are so often clearly unpartisan data gleaned from the fast moving events in politics.

    The more useful extrapolations using them and good polling is, I suspect, what keeps most coming back here. Though there is much to be said for those who demonstrate a 'feel' for how politics are going rather than merely dry calculation.
    Inside info helps too... A mate of mine was on Cameron at 10s and Osborne at 12s (I think) to be next Tory leader in 2005 through a contact in the party machine

    Yes it's one of the few betting markets where a feel for events can trump ratings and stats, although a combo of both is best

    Anyone who knew in advance that the infamous Frank Luntz was doing that Newsnight focus group for the leadership battle would have been handily placed too. That arguably swung it even more than Cammie's speech since it rammed home that he was Blairite moderniser and presented the tory membership with an amusingly stark choice. I don't think David Davis has ever gotten over that. ;)

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Euro 2014 Election Spreadsheet now has regional forecasts
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AswNZWYSW1uvdFFtVGpSQzVoVXpGM253UkhrTEdFbVE&usp=sharing

    Looks like the LDs last seats will be held/lost in London, NorthWest, SouthWest and SouthEast in that order...
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    iainmartin1 Who is the person v close to Cam who described Tory activists in @Telegraph splash as "loons" be? Hmmmmm........

    The telegraph really has it in for Cameron,good luck when it gets a labour government,then it will have something to complain about.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Carola said:
    That should calm things down nicely. ;)

    At least they appear to have moved on from banging on about Europe to banging on about gay marriage so it's progress of sorts.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Confirmation that Nigel is a protest vote as if it were needed.
    Galloway: Nigel Farage is in my league but "not as good"

    http://www.londonlovesbusiness.com/business-news/politics/galloway-nigel-farage-is-in-my-league-but-not-as-good/5330.article
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Some more comment on Lefty fascists:
    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2013/05/some-anti-fascists-are-very-fascistic/

    And UKIP no 1 news story on BBC news. We are calling it Farage Friday.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    The hunt is on!
    Tim Montgomerie ‏@TimMontgomerie 35s

    One of Cameron's most senior aides describes Tory members as "loons" pic.twitter.com/vBhQEKWDLZ < I HOPE HIS IDENTITY WILL BE REVEALED SOON
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    TimMontgomerie One of Cameron's most senior aides describes Tory members as "loons" pic.twitter.com/vBhQEKWDLZ < I HOPE HIS IDENTITY WILL BE REVEALED SOON


    The witch hunt begins ;-)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,503
    Evening all :)

    I'm tempted to say, having been one myself, that activists in all parties have a touch of the loon about them. When I think back to the elections where I was telling at 7am or outside a dark village hall without a torch at 9.50pm having not seen a voter for the previous twenty minutes. Delivering and canvassing in all weathers, interminable meetings talking politics.

    Yep, you may not have to be mad to be involved in politics but it's a big help.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Snap mr pork ;-)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,004
    Voting record on gay rights is a disgrace
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,431
    Was it Osbourne, strategising masterfully?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    iainmartin1 .@JohnRentoul Yes, I know who it is. The person close to Cam will have to resign. @gallaghereditor

    Please let it be oliver (hardy)letwin,please,please.please ;-)
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Mick_Pork said:

    Confirmation that Nigel is a protest vote as if it were needed.

    Galloway: Nigel Farage is in my league but "not as good"

    http://www.londonlovesbusiness.com/business-news/politics/galloway-nigel-farage-is-in-my-league-but-not-as-good/5330.article
    Your boy , Salmond , when faced with a Senate hearing put his tail between his legs and ran off. Galloway , differently , showed up and took the yanks to the cleaners. Respect is earned , not given.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    MikeK said:

    Some more comment on Lefty fascists:
    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2013/05/some-anti-fascists-are-very-fascistic/

    And UKIP no 1 news story on BBC news. We are calling it Farage Friday.

    Do you celebrate it with a meal of chicken?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-22566180

    Poor little diddums. ;)


  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Mick_Pork said:

    MikeK said:

    Some more comment on Lefty fascists:
    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2013/05/some-anti-fascists-are-very-fascistic/

    And UKIP no 1 news story on BBC news. We are calling it Farage Friday.

    Do you celebrate it with a meal of chicken?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-22566180

    Poor little diddums. ;)


    Pork, you are getting very wormy today. Do give it a rest: have a fag or a cocktail or perhaps a steam bath to cool you down.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Interesting D Telegraph header. I hope Dave and co have thought this thro. I posted earlier today that I thought the word "marriage" was and always has been a word to describe a union between a man and a woman. They can change the law to say it does not mean that any more but for a lot of people it will still mean exactly that, and they will not like being identified as loons. Any suggestion of homophobia is likely to lead to torn up membership cards...
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    iainmartin1 .@JohnRentoul Yes, I know who it is. The person close to Cam will have to resign. @gallaghereditor

    Please let it be oliver (hardy)letwin,please,please.please ;-)

    Possible.

    It's not going to be that hard to find out.

    Tory activists are “mad, swivel-eyed loons”, according to one of David Cameron’s closest allies. The incendiary comment made at a private dinner this week is likely to plunge relations between the Prime Minister and his party to a new low. It offers a rare insight into the disregard and irritation felt by the Prime Minister’s inner circle

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    MikeK said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    MikeK said:

    Some more comment on Lefty fascists:
    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2013/05/some-anti-fascists-are-very-fascistic/

    And UKIP no 1 news story on BBC news. We are calling it Farage Friday.

    Do you celebrate it with a meal of chicken?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-22566180

    Poor little diddums. ;)


    Pork, you are getting very wormy today. Do give it a rest: have a fag or a cocktail or perhaps a steam bath to cool you down.

    Calm down dear.

    Nigel's bubble is self-evidently not that hard to burst. The reason the News are going big on it are the reasons given this morning when it was pointed out that his petulant interview would be jumped on with glee since it shows how out of his depth and pitiful Farage looks when the mask slips.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    janemerrick23 Cameron ally "loons" comment is in (at least) 2 papers, so my money is on identity of source coming out within next 24 hours.

    Another few thousand torn up tory membership.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,117
    Good evening, everyone.

    Saw a spot of the BBC news at ten. Surprised they seemed to consider Farage's fascist response to being called scum and told to go back to England as anything remotely worthy of criticism.

    Hanging up may be another matter. I heard (for the firts time) a little of the interview. The interviewer stated UKIP was not part of the Scottish political scene, implying that Farage had no business in Scotland. I do think that's a view that's either stupid and unfair, or plain biased, but hanging up may not have been wise (I'd probably need to hear the whole thing, though, to make a proper judgement).
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    They say a Cameron ally who as close links to the party machine and was at a dinner this week.

    Osborne ;-)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,411
    All political parties have some rather odd people in them. The worrying thing is that as engagement in politics gets less their influence grows.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Most of the papers carrying the 'loons' story, and tv sites. I'm hoping it's Osborne.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,503
    SeanT said:

    I've met a few activists, from parties across the spectrum, during my recent involvement in Cornish politics. They are all slightly loopy, but then, when you go canvassing, you realise nearly everyone in the world is slightly loopy.

    I'd say the Tories are certainly no weirder than any others, and tend, if anything, to be a tiny bit smarter than Labourites, and less kinky than Lib Dems. But it's marginal.

    I've met activists from other parties - I see very little difference at all to be honest. What I would say is the activists from the dominant party in any given area are more arrogant but then I suppose it's so much easier for them.

    As for the voters....I've canvassed In and around St Ives, Carbis Bay, Lelant, Gwithian and Marazion in my time. I've also canvassed in Greenwich, Carshalton and Bromley.

    Believe me, lunacy isn't parochial.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Good evening, everyone.

    Saw a spot of the BBC news at ten. Surprised they seemed to consider Farage's fascist response to being called scum and told to go back to England as anything remotely worthy of criticism.

    Hanging up may be another matter. I heard (for the firts time) a little of the interview. The interviewer stated UKIP was not part of the Scottish political scene, implying that Farage had no business in Scotland. I do think that's a view that's either stupid and unfair, or plain biased, but hanging up may not have been wise (I'd probably need to hear the whole thing, though, to make a proper judgement).

    Do keep up, MorrisD. The BBC news are making Farage's Scottish journey their No 1 news item tonight (BBC1).

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,117
    Mr. Jonathan, indeed, but it's not just 'oddness' that may be an issue was the pool of support/interest dwindles. We already see the party leaderships are drawn from pretty similar backgrounds and have mostly similar ideas (green, pro-EU, want to cut the deficit fairly slowly).
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    The interviewer stated UKIP was not part of the Scottish political scene, implying that Farage had no business in Scotland. I do think that's a view that's either stupid and unfair, or plain biased, but hanging up may not have been wise (I'd probably need to hear the whole thing, though, to make a proper judgement).

    Unspoofalbe. ;)

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    @jonathan.. Do you mean people (eg in your own party) like Ed Miliband. His "engagement " in politics has reduced to the point where he talks vacuous bollocks on any subject you care to mention.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,411
    The odd thing about the loons story is that the mystery guy is described as a Cameron ally.

    I didn't know he had any left.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,117
    Mr. Pork, I am indeed unspoofalbe.

    More to the point, there's nothing wrong with new parties seeking to gain electoral success in areas where they haven't enjoyed it previously. The idea that new parties shouldn't try or that an Englishman who is pro-union has no place campaigning in Scotland is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    OH MY F£CKING GOD, CROSBY HAS GONE NUCLEAR ON SHAPPS

    The power struggle at the heart of the Tory party is immense. Watch your back Osborne!!!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,431
    edited May 2013
    Jonathan said:

    The odd thing about the loons story is that the mystery guy is described as a Cameron ally.

    I didn't know he had any left.

    Titter!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    MikeK said:

    Good evening, everyone.

    Saw a spot of the BBC news at ten. Surprised they seemed to consider Farage's fascist response to being called scum and told to go back to England as anything remotely worthy of criticism.

    Hanging up may be another matter. I heard (for the firts time) a little of the interview. The interviewer stated UKIP was not part of the Scottish political scene, implying that Farage had no business in Scotland. I do think that's a view that's either stupid and unfair, or plain biased, but hanging up may not have been wise (I'd probably need to hear the whole thing, though, to make a proper judgement).

    Do keep up, MorrisD. The BBC news are making Farage's Scottish journey their No 1 news item tonight (BBC1).


    Mike,all this coverage seems to be getting labour figures worried ;-)

    johnprescott “@DavidPrescott: Is a day old story about Nigel Farage REALLY tonight's BBC 10 o'clock lead?” < Remarkable
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,117
    Mr. T, I hope you enjoyed your sojourn in Portugal.

    Yeah, the so-called anti-racist protestors who shouted Farage should go back to England have not enhanced the reputation of Scotland, I fear.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    All that matters is the battle between the 4 Tories.;

    Shapps
    Crosby
    Cameron
    Osborne

    Mixed messages, by the day, on how to take on UKIP cos they couldn't decide who was in charge.

    Looks like Crosby has made the first of his moves.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    stodge said:

    SeanT said:

    I've met a few activists, from parties across the spectrum, during my recent involvement in Cornish politics. They are all slightly loopy, but then, when you go canvassing, you realise nearly everyone in the world is slightly loopy.

    I'd say the Tories are certainly no weirder than any others, and tend, if anything, to be a tiny bit smarter than Labourites, and less kinky than Lib Dems. But it's marginal.

    I've met activists from other parties - I see very little difference at all to be honest. What I would say is the activists from the dominant party in any given area are more arrogant but then I suppose it's so much easier for them.

    As for the voters....I've canvassed In and around St Ives, Carbis Bay, Lelant, Gwithian and Marazion in my time. I've also canvassed in Greenwich, Carshalton and Bromley.

    Believe me, lunacy isn't parochial.

    I haven't done any canvasing for over 50 years; it will be strange to go out and canvas for UKIP next year. Maybe I'll take an inside job . :)

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Jonathan said:

    The odd thing about the loons story is that the mystery guy is described as a Cameron ally.

    I didn't know he had any left.

    And 'senior... strong social connections...'

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Bring back Ashcroft!!!!

    At least he knows what he is talking about! All about Crosby wanting to be the big boy and getting the strategy all wrong!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    IOS said:

    OH MY F£CKING GOD, CROSBY HAS GONE NUCLEAR ON SHAPPS

    The power struggle at the heart of the Tory party is immense. Watch your back Osborne!!!

    My god Ios,I agree.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    edited May 2013
    "The interviewer stated UKIP was not part of the Scottish political scene, implying that Farage had no business in Scotland. I do think that's a view that's either stupid and unfair, or plain biased"

    Or alternatively it's sensible and fair comment. I don't think it's impossible that UKIP might eventually gain a toehold in Scotland (as James Cook pointed out, when you don't really exist as a force in Scotland, almost any publicity is good publicity), but it sure as hell hasn't happened yet.

    If Farage thought UKIP was a major player in Scotland, why the hell was he launching his "Aberdeen Donside by-election campaign" in an Edinburgh pub?! Would he have launched his Eastleigh campaign at St James' Park?

    SeanT -

    "the whole event gave a definite impression of Scotland as a punchy, boorish, intolerant place, tainted with Anglophobia"

    Where was the Anglophobia? All I heard was Farage being castigated for his anti-immigration stance.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    SeanT said:

    The sensible Scots I know will surely have been irritated, if not dismayed.

    I'm merely disappointed you haven't worked these elusive chaps into your always amusing dinner anecdotes.

    'I was having dinner with my lefty scottish friends when one of them sprang across the table and held a knife to my throat when I mentioned the word Farage' etcetera. ;)

    Let's hope your acumen for scottish politics proves as fruitful as your gullibility in believing Cammie's ludicrous flounces and ridiculous Cast Iron pledges.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    We're going on a fop hunt
    We're going to catch a big one

    It would make your year if it was Osborne,don't try to hide it ;-)

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,675
    Mick_Pork said:

    MikeK said:

    Some more comment on Lefty fascists:
    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/douglas-murray/2013/05/some-anti-fascists-are-very-fascistic/

    And UKIP no 1 news story on BBC news. We are calling it Farage Friday.

    Do you celebrate it with a meal of chicken?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-22566180

    Poor little diddums. ;)


    Micky Pork or Micky Mouse?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    The idea that new parties shouldn't try or that an Englishman who is pro-union has no place campaigning in Scotland is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.

    That's inept straw man bullshit for you. It is indeed most silly.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,117
    F1: good news (found via Twitter):
    http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/107487

    Basically, the FIA has stated tyre changes can only be made to enhance safety (ie reduce the risk of delamination), *not* to reduce the level of degradation or cut the number of pit stops needed.
  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    Roger Helmer and one of the Edinburgh students on news night Ian min.... Just sen the footage again and Stewart Wheeler is standing in the middle of it all looking confused! brilliant!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    SeanT said:

    If it's Osborne that is sensational. But I don't believe it is, he is too smart to be so utterly idiotic. Surely?

    Who does that leave....

    How about Johnson's brother. Or Letwin. My money is on Letwin.

    Or shapps.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,135
    edited May 2013

    Mr. Pork, I am indeed unspoofalbe.

    More to the point, there's nothing wrong with new parties seeking to gain electoral success in areas where they haven't enjoyed it previously. The idea that new parties shouldn't try or that an Englishman who is pro-union has no place campaigning in Scotland is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.

    Seems reasonable to me.

    Then again, even if pro-unionist have certainly been dismissive and arrogant at times, I've even read that the Prime Minister should not/has no business interferring, which shows an extreme view in the opposite direction (Yes, he may well have only 1 MP north of the border, but he's still in charge of the country the scots are still part of for the moment) so I clearly have no idea what reasonable is.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530



    Or alternatively it's sensible and fair comment. I don't think it's impossible that UKIP might eventually gain a toehold in Scotland (as James Cook pointed out, when you don't really exist as a force in Scotland, almost any publicity is good publicity), but it sure as hell hasn't happened yet.

    If Farage thought UKIP was a major player in Scotland, why the hell was he launching his "Aberdeen Donside by-election campaign" in an Edinburgh pub?! Would he have launched his Eastleigh campaign at St James' Park?

    It's not impossible any more than refuting the male golf club bores image is but it sure as hell won't be Farage who can do that. The seeming reluctance of Farage to use Diane James or anyone else to their full effect, while Nigel keeps things looking like a one man band, is simply weak and incompetent tactics.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 26,352
    RodCrosby said:

    Euro 2014 Election Spreadsheet now has regional forecasts
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AswNZWYSW1uvdFFtVGpSQzVoVXpGM253UkhrTEdFbVE&usp=sharing

    Looks like the LDs last seats will be held/lost in London, NorthWest, SouthWest and SouthEast in that order...

    Very interesting thanks Rod.

    Why is it that even under the PR system that the Euros use, Labour still end up with 1 more seat than UKIP for 2% less votes?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,135
    edited May 2013
    stodge said:

    SeanT said:

    I've met a few activists, from parties across the spectrum, during my recent involvement in Cornish politics. They are all slightly loopy, but then, when you go canvassing, you realise nearly everyone in the world is slightly loopy.

    I'd say the Tories are certainly no weirder than any others, and tend, if anything, to be a tiny bit smarter than Labourites, and less kinky than Lib Dems. But it's marginal.

    I've met activists from other parties - I see very little difference at all to be honest. What I would say is the activists from the dominant party in any given area are more arrogant but then I suppose it's so much easier for them.
    True words indeed. That's actually one reason Labour really got my goat toward the end, because their arrogance had become so think after 13 years in power, and one reason I fear for them getting back in so easily, as it will encourage it to return. And that's just a national government that lasted a bit too long for their own good, not those places which are virtually one party states for the Tories/Labour whoever - the atmosphere in such places must be so complacent and internally sour (as almost all disputes will be in-party only).
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,036
    From this morning tim:

    ' Not sure which countries you are talking about with mass unskilled immigration.

    It's certainly not the UK

    "Over 50% of immigrants to Canada and 47% of those to Britain have completed tertiary education, the highest levels among rich countries."

    "Start with who is migrating where. Britain’s foreign-born population includes a higher proportion of people with tertiary education (broadly, university graduates and above) than in almost any other OECD country (see chart 1 for a selected list and here for the full data). Incomers are much more likely to be highly educated than native Brits, and that gap is growing." '

    Which simply means that Britain has loads of highly educated immigrant chicken stuffers, chambermaids and car washers.

    We might be attracting educated immigrants but unless we have the suitably skilled employment opportunities then all they do is compete with our own low skilled workers for low skilled employment.

    With the result that our low skilled workers end up on welfare and foreign countries talented workers end up not using their talents over here while their own countries fail to develop.

    Doesn't sound like the most productive use of human resources to me.


  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Mick_Pork

    ' while Nigel keeps things looking like a one man band, is simply weak and incompetent tactics.'

    The one man band has worked well for the SNP.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    kle4 said:

    Mr. Pork, I am indeed unspoofalbe.

    More to the point, there's nothing wrong with new parties seeking to gain electoral success in areas where they haven't enjoyed it previously. The idea that new parties shouldn't try or that an Englishman who is pro-union has no place campaigning in Scotland is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.

    Seems reasonable to me.
    Who said they shouldn't? It's self-evidently how you accomplish that and Farage has given a masterclass in how not to do it.

    As old_labour pointed out last night Annabel Goldie would never have turned tail from a bunch of rowdy shouting student protesters and then whined about it with a petulant interview.


  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    kle4 said:

    Mr. Pork, I am indeed unspoofalbe.

    More to the point, there's nothing wrong with new parties seeking to gain electoral success in areas where they haven't enjoyed it previously. The idea that new parties shouldn't try or that an Englishman who is pro-union has no place campaigning in Scotland is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.

    Seems reasonable to me.
    That mongoose wouldn't be named Tommy, would it?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,135
    edited May 2013
    Mick_Pork said:

    kle4 said:

    Mr. Pork, I am indeed unspoofalbe.

    More to the point, there's nothing wrong with new parties seeking to gain electoral success in areas where they haven't enjoyed it previously. The idea that new parties shouldn't try or that an Englishman who is pro-union has no place campaigning in Scotland is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.

    Seems reasonable to me.
    Who said they shouldn't?
    Not specific to UKIP (I can see why he's trying to expand north, but it's obviously a waste of time, so the sooner all this dies down, the better we can return to normal - Farage has had a bad time of it though, losing his demeanour of humour and appearing petty), but in fact I have seen comment that the Prime Minister has no business involving himself at all in the Independence debate, which is patently absurd, so while pro-unionists have often been guilty of arrogance, ignorance or dismissiveness, let us not pretend that all of their complaints are wholly without foundation
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    SeanT said:

    Scotland? Yes. I am moderately familiar with Scotland.

    If you are as familiar with it as you are with Bangkok then that is high praise indeed.

    Not quite the same as knowing the political dynamic though, is it? As the scottish PB tories have proved.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    kle4 said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    kle4 said:

    Mr. Pork, I am indeed unspoofalbe.

    More to the point, there's nothing wrong with new parties seeking to gain electoral success in areas where they haven't enjoyed it previously. The idea that new parties shouldn't try or that an Englishman who is pro-union has no place campaigning in Scotland is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.

    Seems reasonable to me.
    Who said they shouldn't?
    Not specific to UKIP (I can see why he's trying to expand north, but it's obviously a waste of time,
    "Percentage of British people who want to leave the EU: 41%; percentage of Scots who want to leave the EU: 37%."

    https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/335359953403514880
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,036
    I think Hammond my be the Conservative equivalent of Alan Johnson.

    He looks the part but I'm not sure if there's any ability there.

    But then again I'm increasingly coming to the opinion that lack of ability is a requirement among the political establishment.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,135

    kle4 said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    kle4 said:

    Mr. Pork, I am indeed unspoofalbe.

    More to the point, there's nothing wrong with new parties seeking to gain electoral success in areas where they haven't enjoyed it previously. The idea that new parties shouldn't try or that an Englishman who is pro-union has no place campaigning in Scotland is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.

    Seems reasonable to me.
    Who said they shouldn't?
    Not specific to UKIP (I can see why he's trying to expand north, but it's obviously a waste of time,
    "Percentage of British people who want to leave the EU: 41%; percentage of Scots who want to leave the EU: 37%."

    https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/335359953403514880
    And yet that 41% in Britain overall does not mean UKIP are at 41% in the polls - UKIP not finding fertile ground is not just down to policy on the EU. Presenting themselves, despite their protests, as Tory-Hard in a land where the Tory name is lower than mud, probably cancels out any benefits accrued from being anti-EU.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    This Item in the "The Star" Rotherham is about UKIPs win last night. But the real story are the comments below the story. If they are representative of South Yorkshire, Labour are doomed.

    http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/labour-shock-as-ukip-takes-police-chief-s-old-safe-seat-1-5685330#.UZaJ3XttRPU.twitter
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,135

    I think Hammond my be the Conservative equivalent of Alan Johnson.

    He looks the part but I'm not sure if there's any ability there.

    But then again I'm increasingly coming to the opinion that lack of ability is a requirement among the political establishment.

    It enables them to survive bitter political infighting as rivals don't see them as a threat until they are the only ones left standing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,135
    MikeK said:

    This Item in the "The Star" Rotherham is about UKIPs win last night. But the real story are the comments below the story. If they are representative of South Yorkshire, Labour are doomed.

    http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/labour-shock-as-ukip-takes-police-chief-s-old-safe-seat-1-5685330#.UZaJ3XttRPU.twitter

    "If [the comments] are representative of [area], [party] is doomed"

    You have been on the internet before, surely? Labour may take some hits, but the day internet comments are representative of anything, I'll eat my hat (it's too tight anyway, may as well get some use out of it).

    Fortunately I don't think anyone here genuinely believes they are representative of anything in the wider public, at least in wonkishness.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,135
    MikeK said:

    kle4 said:

    Mr. Pork, I am indeed unspoofalbe.

    More to the point, there's nothing wrong with new parties seeking to gain electoral success in areas where they haven't enjoyed it previously. The idea that new parties shouldn't try or that an Englishman who is pro-union has no place campaigning in Scotland is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.

    Seems reasonable to me.
    That mongoose wouldn't be named Tommy, would it?

    I'm afraid that reference has passed me by.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    kle4 said:

    but in fact I have seen comment that the Prime Minister has no business involving himself at all in the Independence debate, which is patently absurd

    Indeed it is. Puzzling why Cammie is so reluctant to debate with the leader of the SNP and first minister of scotland since that is the case. I'm sure on that seeming relactance to debate at least Farage and Salmond could agree. Though Cammie might be feeling bolder than he once did now where it comes to debating Farage. As indeed might Clegg and little Ed.

    The critiques I remember were about the political process, not the debate. That process is over so Cammie's more than welcome to weigh in on the debate at any time. The more often the better as far as I am concerned.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,135
    SeanT said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    SeanT said:

    Scotland? Yes. I am moderately familiar with Scotland.

    If you are as familiar with it as you are with Bangkock then that is high praise indeed.

    Not quite the same as knowing the political dynamic though, is it? As the scottish PB tories have proved.
    I am not a Tory
    Aw, they've lost you that much already? No being enticed back? I hear GO and DC have something really incredible lined up to convince you and yours, like those adverts British Gas ran years ago about how x numbers of people had returned to them. They hope if they state it on TV people will think it's true and try to join the rush.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    kle4 said:

    MikeK said:

    kle4 said:

    Mr. Pork, I am indeed unspoofalbe.

    More to the point, there's nothing wrong with new parties seeking to gain electoral success in areas where they haven't enjoyed it previously. The idea that new parties shouldn't try or that an Englishman who is pro-union has no place campaigning in Scotland is sillier than a mongoose wearing a fez.

    Seems reasonable to me.
    That mongoose wouldn't be named Tommy, would it?

    I'm afraid that reference has passed me by.
    Try Tommy Cooper. But really it was addressed Morris Dancer in the first place.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited May 2013

    RodCrosby said:

    Euro 2014 Election Spreadsheet now has regional forecasts
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AswNZWYSW1uvdFFtVGpSQzVoVXpGM253UkhrTEdFbVE&usp=sharing

    Looks like the LDs last seats will be held/lost in London, NorthWest, SouthWest and SouthEast in that order...

    Very interesting thanks Rod.

    Why is it that even under the PR system that the Euros use, Labour still end up with 1 more seat than UKIP for 2% less votes?

    Electoral bias, just as under FPTP. Euro "PR" still uses constituencies, which always give rise to some measurable bias!

    Possible causes.

    1. Turnout effects, again. Lower turnouts in the stronger Labour areas.

    2. Possibly size effects, or malapportionment. Stronger Labour constituencies have slightly more seats than their electorates would entitle them to.

    3. An inverse correlation between district magnitude and Labour strength. Labour win big in the small DM constituencies, while still snaffling a proportional entitlement in the large DM constituencies.

    I've not done a study of these to see which occur and by how much, but the effects are certainly smaller than under FPTP. There is also just the luck (or efficiency) factor in any constituency based system, and perhaps even more so in a system like D'Hondt. The anomaly you saw may indeed be just due to that, and may not hold through all possible configurations of the votes...
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Carola said:

    Jonathan said:

    The odd thing about the loons story is that the mystery guy is described as a Cameron ally.

    I didn't know he had any left.

    And 'senior... strong social connections...'

    Mr Maude?
This discussion has been closed.