Some better MidTerms polling for the Dems – politicalbetting.com

Luckyguy1983 said:

carnforth said:

Gardenwalker said:

Emily Maitlis

Bluntly ,the immigration numbers have grown bigger since Brexit not smaller. The reason is not “ marauding criminal gangs “ ( more than 80% whose cases are heard are ultimately granted asylum) but a break down in relations with France and others ..

https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1587164254720999427?s=46&t=jj_4fS92tOBU7xJJcKHtpw

French police officers would stop the boats instead of watching them leave from the beach if we were still in the EU? Don't think so.

IIRC we have signed at least one new agreement with France on this issue since Brexit, so relations seem to be at least functioning, even if not warm.

Also, her suggestion that 80% being granted means they are genuine applicants seems a bit, shall we say, generous.

Apparently it's "project one's own prejudice and ignore the facts" on all sides. As you point out, though, this situation would be improved if we were actually had the facts.

Are 80% granted? That seems absurdly high?

I assume that the easy cases are granted relatively quickly and the rejections are always pending during appeals / awaiting deportation so “granted/resolved” will be a high percentage

DavidL said:

@Gardenwalker
On the previous thread you stated that asylum seekers only became an issue in 2021. Was that a joke?

This story, from 2016, was after a crisis when the Calais camp was closed after several years: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/05/refugees-northern-france-dunkirk-calais-camp-demolished

My daughter was in Calais working for CaringforCalais in 2019. It has been a problem for 20 years at least.

Unless you find the root cause, you won't fix the problem, I feel. There may be an external reason for the recent exponential increases in cross-Channel crossings. The collapse of civil society in Afghanistan, for example, in which case that's your answer. If the main cause isn't external, that suggests whatever they were doing before was better than what they are doing now. Sacking Braverman who is making things massively worse, and going back to the status quo ante might be useful.

FrankBooth said:

Perhaps I haven't been paying enough attention but I am not hearing many solutions to the boats issue from our leaders. Braverman may think she's doing well by playing to the gallery, being the darling of the right but what is she going to DO? Overseeing deteriorating conditions at the Marston centre (as a deterrance to stop people coming?) is not a solution.

Braverman went in with her boots on and studs up today. Very cynical, but I suspect all those that needed to hear the dog whistle, heard it.

Patel was Mother Theresa compared to Braverman.

Labour MP saying on Newsnight that the problem is that it takes two years to deal with the claims. Tory MP saying pretty much the same thing. Just another consequence of austerity and lack of resources?

Paging @TSE

Someone has put £10K up available for takers at 1/100 to back Romania for Eurovision 2023

The total market is £600.

wooliedyed said:

kle4 said:

Scott_xP said:

New Chair of Foreign Affairs Select Committee @aliciakearns says she understands PM wants to stay in the UK but tells @TheNewsAgents the King should go to Cop27: “I do think we need to see very senior representation…do I think the King going would send a v strong message- I do.”
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1587185194787868677

Too late now. Sunak has followed Truss in making he clear he doesn't want to go, and not wanting the king to go either.

Don't really get the thinking behind this one. Seems to me the PM not going but sending the king would be a low cost way of making a gesture, whilst showing leg to those who don't care about the issue.

Charles would probably commit us to banning all electricity by 2025

He's cool with static.....

FrankBooth said:

Labour MP saying on Newsnight that the problem is that it takes two years to deal with the claims. Tory MP saying pretty much the same thing. Just another consequence of austerity and lack of resources?

Yes to be fair, if Labour had been in for the last difficult 12 years for UK, we would be letting them off for the broken asylum system, so we have to let the Tories off for the state it’s got into too. It would have happened to everyone and anyone - it’s not ideological decisions made or just incompetence by people not up to the job at all.

Mexicanpete said:

FrankBooth said:

Perhaps I haven't been paying enough attention but I am not hearing many solutions to the boats issue from our leaders. Braverman may think she's doing well by playing to the gallery, being the darling of the right but what is she going to DO? Overseeing deteriorating conditions at the Marston centre (as a deterrance to stop people coming?) is not a solution.

Braverman went in with her boots on and studs up today. Very cynical, but I suspect all those that needed to hear the dog whistle, heard it.

Patel was Mother Theresa compared to Braverman.

As was predicted in advance on PB.

With Braverman you get a feeling she doesn’t want to make the problems go away, because she enjoys the differential only one political party is serious about saving the UK from this invasion, only one Home Secretary prepared to call them for what they are, foot soldiers in criminal gangs not proper asylum seekers.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good news

Britishvolt secures funding

BBC News - UK battery firm Britishvolt averts collapse as funding secured
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63459393

Tax payers money?

Mexicanpete said:

MoonRabbit said:

dixiedean said:

Discussion today.
Child: Who's the new President?
TA: We don't have a president we have a new Prime Minister.
Child: So what's his name?
TA: (Perhaps ahead of the game) Keir Starmer.
Child: No. The one who looks like Roddy from Flushed Away.
Me: Rishi Sunak. Puts up picture of Roddy and Rishi.
Child and TA: Ha ha. Yes he does. Useless.

. .

Roddy looks nothing like Sunak. He does look like Tony Blair. Typecasting?

The ears and smile is Blair. Cartoonists do draw Sunak with a big beak.

But is this rat thought to be Sunak based on skin colour?

MikeL said:

FrankBooth said:

The Democrats being level in the Senate seems extraordinary once you consider all the sparsely populated red states having 2 senators each.

Worth noting that in the 2020 Presidential Election, Biden and Trump both won 25 states (Biden also won the District of Columbia).

So the two "extra" Electoral College votes for each state which are not proportional made no difference at all (in fact Biden gained a net two as he won DC).

The point is there are a fair number of small states which the Dems win - both Vermont and Delaware have one House seat; Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Hawaii all have two House seats.

Two very large states : Texas and Florida are pretty reliably red.

MoonRabbit said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Indians as rats, then. Totally fine.

Here you go:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karni_Mata_Temple

"The temple is also a popular destination for tourists and pilgrims and is renowned, both in India and internationally, as the “Temple of Rats” due to the numerous mice known as kābā which are considered holy and treated with utmost care by the devotees."

I don’t want to come over all Basil faulty but, are we sure those things looking much like twenty thousand rats are mice?

If I find a long chewy tail in my halwa bar, can I take it back to the gift shop and complain?

They need to call Dr Pratt

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taLNQWahGbw

Love it when he uses a 🐈‍⬛ as a blotter.

MarqueeMark said:

Selebian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good news

Britishvolt secures funding

BBC News - UK battery firm Britishvolt averts collapse as funding secured
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63459393

So someone believes they have potential, despite current problems?

It's amp-le.

Investors must think repealing the Treaty of rOhm will give them an edge.

Selebian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good news

Britishvolt secures funding

BBC News - UK battery firm Britishvolt averts collapse as funding secured
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63459393

So someone believes they have potential, despite current problems?

NO, just a volte-face!

Zelensky wanted war, according to Lula.

@kjovano
Zelensky "is as responsible as Putin for the war", Brazil's incoming president, Lula, tells Time.

Lula blames Nato for the war, completely ignoring Russian officials' attacks on #Ukraine's national identity.

https://twitter.com/kjovano/status/1587057798382338049

Ukraine:

Two weeks ago I posted that the following fortnight would see some notable strategic developments, not all of them good news.

My timing was out but the nature of some of these developments is now becoming clear.

1. Ukraine has now acknowledged out loud something that has been bothering them for a few weeks, a possible assault from Belarus. Senior Ukrainians now think its more likely than not.

2. The withdrawal of Russian support for the grain shipment program is no surprise, it was coming. The question is whether their support matters. The West can basically manage that escort and Russia will do fuck all about it. Its a question of whether the will is there. Someone should count how many Turkish vessels are in theater, they could do that all themselves.

3. The attack on city infrastructure continues as the Ukrainians knew it would. The expectation was 2-3 weeks, and we are now firmly into week 3 with some of the heaviest missile salvos yet. The expectation was that Russian stocks of cruise missiles was running low, they are, just not quite as low as many thought.

4. On the battlefield, the Ukrainians havent quite made the advances that the optimists predicted. Its by no means bad as the Russians have made any notable breakthrough in response, but they have bolstered their defences, mainly to try to keep the front line away from Crimea. Cracks grow very quickly but its not quite there so far for the Ukrainians.

rcs1000 said:

The top search on Google in Russia over the last 60 days has been:

"How to break your arm at home"

Are you just being humerus?

Selebian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good news

Britishvolt secures funding

BBC News - UK battery firm Britishvolt averts collapse as funding secured
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63459393

So someone believes they have potential, despite current problems?

Short. It's terminal.

williamglenn said:

Zelensky wanted war, according to Lula.

@kjovano
Zelensky "is as responsible as Putin for the war", Brazil's incoming president, Lula, tells Time.

Lula blames Nato for the war, completely ignoring Russian officials' attacks on #Ukraine's national identity.

https://twitter.com/kjovano/status/1587057798382338049

Bolsonaro’s position was neutrality in the conflict? Bizarrely not much difference between the two of them on this?

Not a position I fear serves Brazil very well.

dixiedean said:

StillWaters said:

dixiedean said:

Discussion today.
Child: Who's the new President?
TA: We don't have a president we have a new Prime Minister.
Child: So what's his name?
TA: (Perhaps ahead of the game) Keir Starmer.
Child: No. The one who looks like Roddy from Flushed Away.
Me: Rishi Sunak. Puts up picture of Roddy and Rishi.
Child and TA: Ha ha. Yes he does. Useless.

No political indoctrination there by the TA…

The point is the TA doesn't even know who the PM is.
They can earn 16% more on the tills at Lidl. And earn during the holidays too. If you want a decent education for our kids, then be prepared to pay for it.

I’m not an expert in how teaching works in practice (although naturally I have strong views…)

I suspect that TAs have their role - but governments have replaced teachers with them to save cost vs optimise education

In my opinion, the government, media and think tanks are still struggling to explain to us where a £40bn black hole appeared from, when and how it appeared. Todays Express, Telegraph and Mail show government preparing markets and us for no surprises on budget day, with dire warnings of higher tax on way.

But. Take this gibberish for example "While the recent focus has been on conditions improving post-Trussonomics, the central picture remains one of a weaker growth, higher borrowing costs and expensive tax cuts that have left a fiscal hole of at least £40 billion to fill."

What expensive tax cuts?

https://news.sky.com/story/tax-rises-likely-as-government-faces-unpalatable-menu-to-fill-40bn-black-hole-leading-think-tank-warns-12735375

Looking at the Sky charts - I’m no economic wizard girl, I don’t even have a GCSE in maths - but is tax up, funding cuts and austerity 2.0 really what those charts are telling us? Or quite the opposite? There’s one chart with gas price so low it makes Truss promise of 2 years of help look a tad unnecessary to put it politely, but look at how much money saved by not doing that, so what’s the best use of this money?

Cut VAT. VAT holidays. Help footfall, help businesses, help growth in my opinion.

The policy behind the coming budget is not adding up in my opinion.

Nancy Pelosi: Man charged with attempted kidnap and assault
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-63435454

Sounds like some idiot who planned to kidnap and interrogate Pelosi, forcing her to reveal the truth about... well, unfortunately it does not say. The stolen election, the Kennedy assassination, UFOs, who knows?

Whatever, another American who fell down the alt-right rabbit hole to jail.

No_Offence_Alan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Selebian said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good news

Britishvolt secures funding

BBC News - UK battery firm Britishvolt averts collapse as funding secured
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63459393

So someone believes they have potential, despite current problems?

It's amp-le.

Ohm-I-God !

Resistance is useless!!!

kle4 said:

Endillion said:

FrankBooth said:

The Democrats being level in the Senate seems extraordinary once you consider all the sparsely populated red states having 2 senators each.

Maryland. Hawaii. Rhode Island. Connecticut. Vermont. New Hampshire. Delaware.

The issue of "states that aren't big enough to be states" is pretty much a wash. At least the red ones are physically large enough to not look ridicuous.

It's remarkable to me only 10 states have a population above 10 million, with 11 below 1.5m. I'd be interested what the spread was like with the original states.

The United Arab Emirates is also pretty remarkable, with 4 of them amounting to around 8% of the population, and the other 4 taking up the remaining 91%.

I guess it shouldn't be a surprise, given the country I live in, but I still am.

There’s 8 Emirates? Damn, I must have missed one

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Arab_Emirates

1,000 dead Russian soldiers yesterday, and 1,500 more injured. For how much longer will the average Russian support this war?

Sandpit said:

1,000 dead Russian soldiers yesterday, and 1,500 more injured. For how much longer will the average Russian support this war?

Is it that relevant what the average Russian thinks? I’m unpersuaded that Russian civil society is capable of a truly ground up revolution at this point. I personally lean towards Putin staying in power until his natural death. Unless Ukraine retake Sevastopol, harder to predict what happens then.

rcs1000 said:

MikeL said:

FrankBooth said:

The Democrats being level in the Senate seems extraordinary once you consider all the sparsely populated red states having 2 senators each.

Worth noting that in the 2020 Presidential Election, Biden and Trump both won 25 states (Biden also won the District of Columbia).

So the two "extra" Electoral College votes for each state which are not proportional made no difference at all (in fact Biden gained a net two as he won DC).

The point is there are a fair number of small states which the Dems win - both Vermont and Delaware have one House seat; Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Hawaii all have two House seats.

Two very large states : Texas and Florida are pretty reliably red.

Florida voted for Obama twice and elected Bill Nelson as Senator three times. About 40% of its House representatives are Dems.

Yes, it leans Republican but I wouldn’t describe it as ‘pretty reliably red.’

ydoethur said:

I’m slightly disturbed he felt the need to spell it out:

Blackouts would be last resort, says National Grid chief
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63458441

An acquaintance who went to live in America in 1990-odd was astonished that the richest country in the world could not reliably distribute electricity, where blackouts and brownouts were almost weekly occurrences. Did we import the name? iirc Britain in the 1970s had power cuts; blackouts were a wartime tactic to confuse the Luftwaffe.

ETA power cuts and WFH will be an uncertain combination. It would be ironic if the lights stay off because National Grid staff can't turn on their PCs to restore power to the rest of us.

Ishmael_Z said:

She is just fundamentally stupid. Truss level stupid. If she had ok ed the hotels we wouldn't be where we are now, and no one would have known much about it. By refusing to and letting Manston become an issue she has highlighted that we are spending 2.5bn a year on this shit. Great if she can then say, Yay! I am the solution to this problem. Less so if she just looks like the cause of it.

What you've outlined seems pretty clever to me.

Though if she doesn't have a solution, or anything like one, she's on borrowed time, but that was the case anyway.

state_go_away said:

MoonRabbit said:

In my opinion, the government, media and think tanks are still struggling to explain to us where a £40bn black hole appeared from, when and how it appeared. Todays Express, Telegraph and Mail show government preparing markets and us for no surprises on budget day, with dire warnings of higher tax on way.

But. Take this gibberish for example "While the recent focus has been on conditions improving post-Trussonomics, the central picture remains one of a weaker growth, higher borrowing costs and expensive tax cuts that have left a fiscal hole of at least £40 billion to fill."

What expensive tax cuts?

https://news.sky.com/story/tax-rises-likely-as-government-faces-unpalatable-menu-to-fill-40bn-black-hole-leading-think-tank-warns-12735375

Looking at the Sky charts - I’m no economic wizard girl, I don’t even have a GCSE in maths - but is tax up, funding cuts and austerity 2.0 really what those charts are telling us? Or quite the opposite? There’s one chart with gas price so low it makes Truss promise of 2 years of help look a tad unnecessary to put it politely, but look at how much money saved by not doing that, so what’s the best use of this money?

Cut VAT. VAT holidays. Help footfall, help businesses, help growth in my opinion.

The policy behind the coming budget is not adding up in my opinion.

we already have the highest tax take for generations - No point in a "tory" government as it is socialist anyway

It's not socialism. It's just lots of old people.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

state_go_away said:

MoonRabbit said:

In my opinion, the government, media and think tanks are still struggling to explain to us where a £40bn black hole appeared from, when and how it appeared. Todays Express, Telegraph and Mail show government preparing markets and us for no surprises on budget day, with dire warnings of higher tax on way.

But. Take this gibberish for example "While the recent focus has been on conditions improving post-Trussonomics, the central picture remains one of a weaker growth, higher borrowing costs and expensive tax cuts that have left a fiscal hole of at least £40 billion to fill."

What expensive tax cuts?

https://news.sky.com/story/tax-rises-likely-as-government-faces-unpalatable-menu-to-fill-40bn-black-hole-leading-think-tank-warns-12735375

Looking at the Sky charts - I’m no economic wizard girl, I don’t even have a GCSE in maths - but is tax up, funding cuts and austerity 2.0 really what those charts are telling us? Or quite the opposite? There’s one chart with gas price so low it makes Truss promise of 2 years of help look a tad unnecessary to put it politely, but look at how much money saved by not doing that, so what’s the best use of this money?

Cut VAT. VAT holidays. Help footfall, help businesses, help growth in my opinion.

The policy behind the coming budget is not adding up in my opinion.

we already have the highest tax take for generations - No point in a "tory" government as it is socialist anyway

It's not socialism. It's just lots of old people.

partly to blame but no backbone from them on insisting old folk pay for their care (even if just a charge on their homes ) Absurd we are taxing heavily work and enterprise and not housing wealth which will only be used for inheritance to a lucky bunch of (usually) 60 year olds.This government has no point because it is afraid of its own shadow

Daveyboy1961 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

I’m slightly disturbed he felt the need to spell it out:

Blackouts would be last resort, says National Grid chief
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63458441

An acquaintance who went to live in America in 1990-odd was astonished that the richest country in the world could not reliably distribute electricity, where blackouts and brownouts were almost weekly occurrences. Did we import the name? iirc Britain in the 1970s had power cuts; blackouts were a wartime tactic to confuse the Luftwaffe.

ETA power cuts and WFH will be an uncertain combination. It would be ironic if the lights stay off because National Grid staff can't turn on their PCs to restore power to the rest of us.

I remember very well the blackouts of the early 70s. 4hr blackouts at various parts of the daytime. Fridays were always 10am til 2pm , then 6pm till 10pm in our area, and other weekdays were of a reverse pattern. I also remember schools being off for 6weeks in January/February due to lack of coal etc. I think it was either 71 or 72.

I also remember streetlights being on at odd times of the day/night due to their timers being upset by the power cuts.

Candles throwing weird shadows in the evenings, house fire numbers rising...

I remember them being a fairly frequent occurrence in rural Gloucestershire in the late 1980s as well.

I've no idea why they were so common. At least twice it was due to major faults in the local grid, until it was upgraded. And bad weather could also be a factor as winds would bring down the power lines.

But I think sometimes because of the reliance on coal and nuclear, which are very inflexible, the power suppliers simply couldn't balance demand properly and would cut power to smaller areas in the hope nobody important would notice what had happened.

Luckyguy1983 said:

FrankBooth said:

Labour MP saying on Newsnight that the problem is that it takes two years to deal with the claims. Tory MP saying pretty much the same thing. Just another consequence of austerity and lack of resources?

I wonder what the 'assumption' is. Suspects are presumed innocent until proven guilty, but I'm not sure about assylum claims and whether they're considered genuine until proven false.

Under international law, anyone has the right to apply for asylum in any country that has signed the 1951 Convention and to remain there until the authorities have assessed their claim

https://www.refugeecouncil.org.uk/information/refugee-asylum-facts/the-truth-about-asylum/

So, yes, basically.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

state_go_away said:

MoonRabbit said:

In my opinion, the government, media and think tanks are still struggling to explain to us where a £40bn black hole appeared from, when and how it appeared. Todays Express, Telegraph and Mail show government preparing markets and us for no surprises on budget day, with dire warnings of higher tax on way.

But. Take this gibberish for example "While the recent focus has been on conditions improving post-Trussonomics, the central picture remains one of a weaker growth, higher borrowing costs and expensive tax cuts that have left a fiscal hole of at least £40 billion to fill."

What expensive tax cuts?

https://news.sky.com/story/tax-rises-likely-as-government-faces-unpalatable-menu-to-fill-40bn-black-hole-leading-think-tank-warns-12735375

Looking at the Sky charts - I’m no economic wizard girl, I don’t even have a GCSE in maths - but is tax up, funding cuts and austerity 2.0 really what those charts are telling us? Or quite the opposite? There’s one chart with gas price so low it makes Truss promise of 2 years of help look a tad unnecessary to put it politely, but look at how much money saved by not doing that, so what’s the best use of this money?

Cut VAT. VAT holidays. Help footfall, help businesses, help growth in my opinion.

The policy behind the coming budget is not adding up in my opinion.

we already have the highest tax take for generations - No point in a "tory" government as it is socialist anyway

It's not socialism. It's just lots of old people.

It's neither socialism nor lots of old people. It's Brexit.

That's rubbish, I hear you say. After 12 years of Conservative economic policy, surely it must be socialism? Well, on the grounds that all economic statistics are rubbish, tax take relative to GDP is problematic because GDP has been artificially constrained by the global financial crisis, austerity, then Brexit, Covid and Ukraine). Trussonomics was right about one thing.

But running up the tax take in anticipation of Brexit was government policy under Theresa May and her Chancellor, Philip Hammond.

Daveyboy1961 said:

ydoethur said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

I’m slightly disturbed he felt the need to spell it out:

Blackouts would be last resort, says National Grid chief
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63458441

An acquaintance who went to live in America in 1990-odd was astonished that the richest country in the world could not reliably distribute electricity, where blackouts and brownouts were almost weekly occurrences. Did we import the name? iirc Britain in the 1970s had power cuts; blackouts were a wartime tactic to confuse the Luftwaffe.

ETA power cuts and WFH will be an uncertain combination. It would be ironic if the lights stay off because National Grid staff can't turn on their PCs to restore power to the rest of us.

I remember very well the blackouts of the early 70s. 4hr blackouts at various parts of the daytime. Fridays were always 10am til 2pm , then 6pm till 10pm in our area, and other weekdays were of a reverse pattern. I also remember schools being off for 6weeks in January/February due to lack of coal etc. I think it was either 71 or 72.

I also remember streetlights being on at odd times of the day/night due to their timers being upset by the power cuts.

Candles throwing weird shadows in the evenings, house fire numbers rising...

I remember them being a fairly frequent occurrence in rural Gloucestershire in the late 1980s as well.

I've no idea why they were so common. At least twice it was due to major faults in the local grid, until it was upgraded. And bad weather could also be a factor as winds would bring down the power lines.

But I think sometimes because of the reliance on coal and nuclear, which are very inflexible, the power suppliers simply couldn't balance demand properly and would cut power to smaller areas in the hope nobody important would notice what had happened.

Yes, and I also remember power cuts in South Oxfordshire/Reading as recently as 2015-2020s due to poor infrastrucure etc. hardly an apology from the providers or distributors either.

Also the interconnectors to Europe are more sturdy and capacious than they were, helping to smooth out peaks and troughs.

Twitter gossip today that this Forbes article might be right - that the Admiral Makarov, replacement flagship of the Black Sea fleet after the previous incumbent - the Moscow - was sunk, may itself have been sunk in Saturday's drone attack.

(That said, it was previously reported that this ship had been sunk earlier in the year, only for that to be debunked.)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/10/29/the-russian-black-sea-fleet-may-have-lost-another-flagship/?sh=26e977af92e6

Nigelb said:

MoonRabbit said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MoonRabbit said:

First off topic post of the thread.

Is the other surprise return of Gove also a problem?

My start the week FaceTime with Yorkshire has got me wondering if he is a help or problem for Sunak.

When Gove launched rebellion against Truss, the Mail and other organs went for him, and my mum bought into all that. Now she’s struggling with him popping up on the TV as the spokesperson for the Tory’s, so soon after being the rebel leader decried by the Ayatollah voice of the Mail who told her not to like or trust him.

Do you trust him?

Does anyone.

But the point I’m making, for those who gather daily for the word of their Prophet, the Mail, has it all come too soon since

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11295263/Michael-Gove-branded-sadistic-harpooning-Liz-Trusss-45p-tax-cut-plan.html

The poor dears are confused. He’s untrustworthy sadist plotter, who done Truss in. But at least he’s on our side so let’s get behind him.

See?

Yes.
Why would anyone trust the current Conservative party ?

Well, for now, Mr Market does. Which is what matters.

ydoethur said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

FrankBooth said:

Labour MP saying on Newsnight that the problem is that it takes two years to deal with the claims. Tory MP saying pretty much the same thing. Just another consequence of austerity and lack of resources?

I wonder what the 'assumption' is. Suspects are presumed innocent until proven guilty, but I'm not sure about assylum claims and whether they're considered genuine until proven false.

Under international law, anyone has the right to apply for asylum in any country that has signed the 1951 Convention and to remain there until the authorities have assessed their claim

https://www.refugeecouncil.org.uk/information/refugee-asylum-facts/the-truth-about-asylum/

So, yes, basically.

I always spell asylum wrong!

Hmm. Whilst asylum claims need to be given a fair and thorough hearing, I think where a person is looking to change the status of something 'I wasn't permitted to be in the UK - I am now permitted to be in the UK' there is a strong argument for changing that burden of proof. I think (for example) that if someone is fleeing from persecution, and manages to make the journey with their attire relatively undisturbed, and potentially other possessions on them, there needs to be a very good reason why they've left, lost or given away their papers.

I’m waiting for Braverman to do a De Santis type move and book up loads of hotels in constituencies of people such as Yvette Cooper etc and bus-in asylum seekers and sit back and wait for the reaction from their constituents.

I think she’s mean enough to do it.

state_go_away said:

MoonRabbit said:

In my opinion, the government, media and think tanks are still struggling to explain to us where a £40bn black hole appeared from, when and how it appeared. Todays Express, Telegraph and Mail show government preparing markets and us for no surprises on budget day, with dire warnings of higher tax on way.

But. Take this gibberish for example "While the recent focus has been on conditions improving post-Trussonomics, the central picture remains one of a weaker growth, higher borrowing costs and expensive tax cuts that have left a fiscal hole of at least £40 billion to fill."

What expensive tax cuts?

https://news.sky.com/story/tax-rises-likely-as-government-faces-unpalatable-menu-to-fill-40bn-black-hole-leading-think-tank-warns-12735375

Looking at the Sky charts - I’m no economic wizard girl, I don’t even have a GCSE in maths - but is tax up, funding cuts and austerity 2.0 really what those charts are telling us? Or quite the opposite? There’s one chart with gas price so low it makes Truss promise of 2 years of help look a tad unnecessary to put it politely, but look at how much money saved by not doing that, so what’s the best use of this money?

Cut VAT. VAT holidays. Help footfall, help businesses, help growth in my opinion.

The policy behind the coming budget is not adding up in my opinion.

we already have the highest tax take for generations - No point in a "tory" government as it is socialist anyway

Socialist would have been what Corbyn would have done - maxxed out the borrowing in the first few months of taking power. Then left with nothing to support the furlough schemes when Covid hit. But hey, the private sector could go swing in the breeze under Corbyn.

THAT is socialism.

Anybody saying what Sunak did was anything other than a pragmatic approach to keeping the private sector alive through Covid is talking bollocks.

boulay said:

I’m waiting for Braverman to do a De Santis type move and book up loads of hotels in constituencies of people such as Yvette Cooper etc and bus-in asylum seekers and sit back and wait for the reaction from their constituents.

I think she’s mean enough to do it.

EXCL: Senior Home Office source tells me Home Sec refused to sign off on hotel bookings for migrants at Manston last week “because they were in Tory areas”. @LBC
https://twitter.com/charlotterlynch/status/1587346765107322882

ydoethur said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

FrankBooth said:

Labour MP saying on Newsnight that the problem is that it takes two years to deal with the claims. Tory MP saying pretty much the same thing. Just another consequence of austerity and lack of resources?

I wonder what the 'assumption' is. Suspects are presumed innocent until proven guilty, but I'm not sure about assylum claims and whether they're considered genuine until proven false.

Under international law, anyone has the right to apply for asylum in any country that has signed the 1951 Convention and to remain there until the authorities have assessed their claim

https://www.refugeecouncil.org.uk/information/refugee-asylum-facts/the-truth-about-asylum/

So, yes, basically.

People can stay while their claim is being processed, but they’re not allowed to work. Most are held in detention centres, unless coming under the exceptions here: https://www.gov.uk/claim-asylum/after-your-screening So, it’s more like being treated as guilty until you can prove your case.

https://twitter.com/charlotterlynch/status/1587346765107322882?t=xxffgoI2teuxfbrWCFXCTw&s=19

So Braverman was refusing to book hotels as they were in Tory areas...

"Wasn't the mistake that the Home Secretary made getting caught?" - @skynewsniall

Robert Jenrick says there wasn't "a serious breach of security" by Suella Braverman when documents were sent from her government email to her personal email.

https://trib.al/Rx0iR33

📺 Sky 501 https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1587350913055875073/video/1

Ishmael_Z said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

I heard the leader of a Tory council in Kent this morning on 5L, started off by throwing his hands up at the numbers coming over. By the end of his interview he had admitted the numbers were very similar to the early 2000s, and the biggest issues were backlogs of processing causing overcrowding. Yet again this sorry business can be brought to the desks of Tory Home secretaries not doing their job. When you cut off or slim down the easier routes to applications the asylum seekers will then choose other routes, less easy and more dangerous to them. If 80% of the asylum seekers are successful in the end, why not make it more straightforward in the first palce with more offices in France and Belgium, with paid passage on a ferry. So much cheaper and easier on the people of Kent compared to now. I wouldn't be averse to returning the boat people to France if a proper system was in place there.

Because the only practical way of rationing asylum is preventing them getting here in the first place, if they are guaranteed to succeed when they get here.

.....practical.....

state_go_away said:

MarqueeMark said:

state_go_away said:

MoonRabbit said:

In my opinion, the government, media and think tanks are still struggling to explain to us where a £40bn black hole appeared from, when and how it appeared. Todays Express, Telegraph and Mail show government preparing markets and us for no surprises on budget day, with dire warnings of higher tax on way.

But. Take this gibberish for example "While the recent focus has been on conditions improving post-Trussonomics, the central picture remains one of a weaker growth, higher borrowing costs and expensive tax cuts that have left a fiscal hole of at least £40 billion to fill."

What expensive tax cuts?

https://news.sky.com/story/tax-rises-likely-as-government-faces-unpalatable-menu-to-fill-40bn-black-hole-leading-think-tank-warns-12735375

Looking at the Sky charts - I’m no economic wizard girl, I don’t even have a GCSE in maths - but is tax up, funding cuts and austerity 2.0 really what those charts are telling us? Or quite the opposite? There’s one chart with gas price so low it makes Truss promise of 2 years of help look a tad unnecessary to put it politely, but look at how much money saved by not doing that, so what’s the best use of this money?

Cut VAT. VAT holidays. Help footfall, help businesses, help growth in my opinion.

The policy behind the coming budget is not adding up in my opinion.

we already have the highest tax take for generations - No point in a "tory" government as it is socialist anyway

Socialist would have been what Corbyn would have done - maxxed out the borrowing in the first few months of taking power. Then left with nothing to support the furlough schemes when Covid hit. But hey, the private sector could go swing in the breeze under Corbyn.

THAT is socialism.

Anybody saying what Sunak did was anything other than a pragmatic approach to keeping the private sector alive through Covid is talking bollocks.

stop being so aggressive - its a not very redeeming featureof PB these days that it is becoming very aggressive , rude and crude. On your point about it being "bollocks" we are past covid now

Yes, we are past Covid (hopefully) - but that does nothing to invalidate the point I was making.

MoonRabbit said:

Yokes said:

Ukraine:

Two weeks ago I posted that the following fortnight would see some notable strategic developments, not all of them good news.

My timing was out but the nature of some of these developments is now becoming clear.

1. Ukraine has now acknowledged out loud something that has been bothering them for a few weeks, a possible assault from Belarus. Senior Ukrainians now think its more likely than not.

2. The withdrawal of Russian support for the grain shipment program is no surprise, it was coming. The question is whether their support matters. The West can basically manage that escort and Russia will do fuck all about it. Its a question of whether the will is there. Someone should count how many Turkish vessels are in theater, they could do that all themselves.

3. The attack on city infrastructure continues as the Ukrainians knew it would. The expectation was 2-3 weeks, and we are now firmly into week 3 with some of the heaviest missile salvos yet. The expectation was that Russian stocks of cruise missiles was running low, they are, just not quite as low as many thought.

4. On the battlefield, the Ukrainians havent quite made the advances that the optimists predicted. Its by no means bad as the Russians have made any notable breakthrough in response, but they have bolstered their defences, mainly to try to keep the front line away from Crimea. Cracks grow very quickly but its not quite there so far for the Ukrainians.

Headlines like “food prices to get even higher thanks to stop in grain shipment” today, but for some people in the world it’s more than the inconvenience of food inflation in Waitrose, it’s a matter of life or death. Hunger because of some unfathomable war very from away from them acting on commodity. 😢

Government are going to have to step in to provide insurance cover, though.
The current lot of ships are covered from before Putin abrogated the grain agreement - but the next lot won't be, and won't sail without cover.