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Some better MidTerms polling for the Dems – politicalbetting.com

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  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259

    carnforth said:

    Emily Maitlis

    Bluntly ,the immigration numbers have grown bigger since Brexit not smaller. The reason is not “ marauding criminal gangs “ ( more than 80% whose cases are heard are ultimately granted asylum) but a break down in relations with France and others ..

    https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1587164254720999427?s=46&t=jj_4fS92tOBU7xJJcKHtpw

    French police officers would stop the boats instead of watching them leave from the beach if we were still in the EU? Don't think so.

    IIRC we have signed at least one new agreement with France on this issue since Brexit, so relations seem to be at least functioning, even if not warm.

    Also, her suggestion that 80% being granted means they are genuine applicants seems a bit, shall we say, generous.

    Apparently it's "project one's own prejudice and ignore the facts" on all sides. As you point out, though, this situation would be improved if we were actually had the facts.
    Are 80% granted? That seems absurdly high?
    I assume that the easy cases are granted relatively quickly and the rejections are always pending during appeals / awaiting deportation so “granted/resolved” will be a high percentage

  • Good news

    Britishvolt secures funding

    BBC News - UK battery firm Britishvolt averts collapse as funding secured
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63459393
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    DavidL said:

    @Gardenwalker
    On the previous thread you stated that asylum seekers only became an issue in 2021. Was that a joke?

    This story, from 2016, was after a crisis when the Calais camp was closed after several years: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/05/refugees-northern-france-dunkirk-calais-camp-demolished

    My daughter was in Calais working for CaringforCalais in 2019. It has been a problem for 20 years at least.

    Unless you find the root cause, you won't fix the problem, I feel. There may be an external reason for the recent exponential increases in cross-Channel crossings. The collapse of civil society in Afghanistan, for example, in which case that's your answer. If the main cause isn't external, that suggests whatever they were doing before was better than what they are doing now. Sacking Braverman who is making things massively worse, and going back to the status quo ante might be useful.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259
    dixiedean said:

    Discussion today.
    Child: Who's the new President?
    TA: We don't have a president we have a new Prime Minister.
    Child: So what's his name?
    TA: (Perhaps ahead of the game) Keir Starmer.
    Child: No. The one who looks like Roddy from Flushed Away.
    Me: Rishi Sunak. Puts up picture of Roddy and Rishi.
    Child and TA: Ha ha. Yes he does. Useless.

    No political indoctrination there by the TA…
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Perhaps I haven't been paying enough attention but I am not hearing many solutions to the boats issue from our leaders. Braverman may think she's doing well by playing to the gallery, being the darling of the right but what is she going to DO? Overseeing deteriorating conditions at the Marston centre (as a deterrance to stop people coming?) is not a solution.

    Braverman went in with her boots on and studs up today. Very cynical, but I suspect all those that needed to hear the dog whistle, heard it.

    Patel was Mother Theresa compared to Braverman.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,406

    dixiedean said:

    Discussion today.
    Child: Who's the new President?
    TA: We don't have a president we have a new Prime Minister.
    Child: So what's his name?
    TA: (Perhaps ahead of the game) Keir Starmer.
    Child: No. The one who looks like Roddy from Flushed Away.
    Me: Rishi Sunak. Puts up picture of Roddy and Rishi.
    Child and TA: Ha ha. Yes he does. Useless.

    No political indoctrination there by the TA…
    He's not the Messiah.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,841
    Labour MP saying on Newsnight that the problem is that it takes two years to deal with the claims. Tory MP saying pretty much the same thing. Just another consequence of austerity and lack of resources?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724
    Paging @TSE

    Someone has put £10K up available for takers at 1/100 to back Romania for Eurovision 2023

    The total market is £600.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648
    One of the most striking developments in the war so far is the destruction of two Russian military helicopters in Pskov near the Latvian border. There's a video on social media purportedly of the explosives being deployed.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New Chair of Foreign Affairs Select Committee @aliciakearns says she understands PM wants to stay in the UK but tells @TheNewsAgents the King should go to Cop27: “I do think we need to see very senior representation…do I think the King going would send a v strong message- I do.”
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1587185194787868677

    Too late now. Sunak has followed Truss in making he clear he doesn't want to go, and not wanting the king to go either.

    Don't really get the thinking behind this one. Seems to me the PM not going but sending the king would be a low cost way of making a gesture, whilst showing leg to those who don't care about the issue.
    Charles would probably commit us to banning all electricity by 2025
    He's cool with static.....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724
    Is Sunak cleverer than we think?

    Braverman is taking all the oxygen and is a total lightening rod whilst the PM gets on in peace prepping the economics for 17th Nov.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,724
    edited October 2022

    Labour MP saying on Newsnight that the problem is that it takes two years to deal with the claims. Tory MP saying pretty much the same thing. Just another consequence of austerity and lack of resources?

    It is one of the aspects of this that makes me really annoyed. The Tory backbench and membership and press are always screaming that something must be done but never seem willing to actually spend any serious money on the problem.


  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited October 2022

    Labour MP saying on Newsnight that the problem is that it takes two years to deal with the claims. Tory MP saying pretty much the same thing. Just another consequence of austerity and lack of resources?

    Yes to be fair, if Labour had been in for the last difficult 12 years for UK, we would be letting them off for the broken asylum system, so we have to let the Tories off for the state it’s got into too. It would have happened to everyone and anyone - it’s not ideological decisions made or just incompetence by people not up to the job at all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Is Sunak cleverer than we think?

    Braverman is taking all the oxygen and is a total lightening rod whilst the PM gets on in peace prepping the economics for 17th Nov.

    Every time a politician does something stupid and self defeating there is speculation it is all part of a grand plan. The lightning rod theory is a repeat offender. I guess it comforts us to believe our leaders are in control, even if it is in a sneaky way.

    Sometimes things are not as they appear, but usually they are - if it seems stupid, it probably is.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Perhaps I haven't been paying enough attention but I am not hearing many solutions to the boats issue from our leaders. Braverman may think she's doing well by playing to the gallery, being the darling of the right but what is she going to DO? Overseeing deteriorating conditions at the Marston centre (as a deterrance to stop people coming?) is not a solution.

    Braverman went in with her boots on and studs up today. Very cynical, but I suspect all those that needed to hear the dog whistle, heard it.

    Patel was Mother Theresa compared to Braverman.
    As was predicted in advance on PB.

    With Braverman you get a feeling she doesn’t want to make the problems go away, because she enjoys the differential only one political party is serious about saving the UK from this invasion, only one Home Secretary prepared to call them for what they are, foot soldiers in criminal gangs not proper asylum seekers.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727

    Good news

    Britishvolt secures funding

    BBC News - UK battery firm Britishvolt averts collapse as funding secured
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63459393

    So someone believes they have potential, despite current problems? :wink:
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Good news

    Britishvolt secures funding

    BBC News - UK battery firm Britishvolt averts collapse as funding secured
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63459393

    Tax payers money?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,406
    Selebian said:

    Good news

    Britishvolt secures funding

    BBC News - UK battery firm Britishvolt averts collapse as funding secured
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63459393

    So someone believes they have potential, despite current problems? :wink:
    Despite initial resistance.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    dixiedean said:

    Discussion today.
    Child: Who's the new President?
    TA: We don't have a president we have a new Prime Minister.
    Child: So what's his name?
    TA: (Perhaps ahead of the game) Keir Starmer.
    Child: No. The one who looks like Roddy from Flushed Away.
    Me: Rishi Sunak. Puts up picture of Roddy and Rishi.
    Child and TA: Ha ha. Yes he does. Useless.



    . .
    Roddy looks nothing like Sunak. He does look like Tony Blair. Typecasting?
    The ears and smile is Blair. Cartoonists do draw Sunak with a big beak.

    But is this rat thought to be Sunak based on skin colour?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    dixiedean said:

    Discussion today.
    Child: Who's the new President?
    TA: We don't have a president we have a new Prime Minister.
    Child: So what's his name?
    TA: (Perhaps ahead of the game) Keir Starmer.
    Child: No. The one who looks like Roddy from Flushed Away.
    Me: Rishi Sunak. Puts up picture of Roddy and Rishi.
    Child and TA: Ha ha. Yes he does. Useless.



    . .
    Roddy looks nothing like Sunak. He does look like Tony Blair. Typecasting?
    The ears and smile is Blair. Cartoonists do draw Sunak with a big beak.

    But is this rat thought to be Sunak based on skin colour?
    Nah, the hair.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,160
    MikeL said:

    The Democrats being level in the Senate seems extraordinary once you consider all the sparsely populated red states having 2 senators each.

    Worth noting that in the 2020 Presidential Election, Biden and Trump both won 25 states (Biden also won the District of Columbia).

    So the two "extra" Electoral College votes for each state which are not proportional made no difference at all (in fact Biden gained a net two as he won DC).

    The point is there are a fair number of small states which the Dems win - both Vermont and Delaware have one House seat; Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Hawaii all have two House seats.
    Two very large states : Texas and Florida are pretty reliably red.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Indians as rats, then. Totally fine.

    Here you go:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karni_Mata_Temple

    "The temple is also a popular destination for tourists and pilgrims and is renowned, both in India and internationally, as the “Temple of Rats” due to the numerous mice known as kābā which are considered holy and treated with utmost care by the devotees."
    I don’t want to come over all Basil faulty but, are we sure those things looking much like twenty thousand rats are mice?

    If I find a long chewy tail in my halwa bar, can I take it back to the gift shop and complain?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Indians as rats, then. Totally fine.

    Here you go:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karni_Mata_Temple

    "The temple is also a popular destination for tourists and pilgrims and is renowned, both in India and internationally, as the “Temple of Rats” due to the numerous mice known as kābā which are considered holy and treated with utmost care by the devotees."
    I don’t want to come over all Basil faulty but, are we sure those things looking much like twenty thousand rats are mice?

    If I find a long chewy tail in my halwa bar, can I take it back to the gift shop and complain?
    They need to call Dr Pratt

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taLNQWahGbw

    Love it when he uses a 🐈‍⬛ as a blotter.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Selebian said:

    Good news

    Britishvolt secures funding

    BBC News - UK battery firm Britishvolt averts collapse as funding secured
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63459393

    So someone believes they have potential, despite current problems? :wink:
    It's amp-le.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648

    Selebian said:

    Good news

    Britishvolt secures funding

    BBC News - UK battery firm Britishvolt averts collapse as funding secured
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63459393

    So someone believes they have potential, despite current problems? :wink:
    It's amp-le.
    Investors must think repealing the Treaty of rOhm will give them an edge.
  • Selebian said:

    Good news

    Britishvolt secures funding

    BBC News - UK battery firm Britishvolt averts collapse as funding secured
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63459393

    So someone believes they have potential, despite current problems? :wink:
    It's amp-le.
    Ohm-I-God !
  • Selebian said:

    Good news

    Britishvolt secures funding

    BBC News - UK battery firm Britishvolt averts collapse as funding secured
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63459393

    So someone believes they have potential, despite current problems? :wink:
    NO, just a volte-face!
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Indians as rats, then. Totally fine.

    Here you go:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karni_Mata_Temple

    "The temple is also a popular destination for tourists and pilgrims and is renowned, both in India and internationally, as the “Temple of Rats” due to the numerous mice known as kābā which are considered holy and treated with utmost care by the devotees."
    I don’t want to come over all Basil faulty but, are we sure those things looking much like twenty thousand rats are mice?

    If I find a long chewy tail in my halwa bar, can I take it back to the gift shop and complain?
    Fazil Balti
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648
    Zelensky wanted war, according to Lula.

    @kjovano
    Zelensky "is as responsible as Putin for the war", Brazil's incoming president, Lula, tells Time.

    Lula blames Nato for the war, completely ignoring Russian officials' attacks on #Ukraine's national identity.


    https://twitter.com/kjovano/status/1587057798382338049
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,160

    Zelensky wanted war, according to Lula.

    @kjovano
    Zelensky "is as responsible as Putin for the war", Brazil's incoming president, Lula, tells Time.

    Lula blames Nato for the war, completely ignoring Russian officials' attacks on #Ukraine's national identity.


    https://twitter.com/kjovano/status/1587057798382338049

    Lula is a c*nt.

    Unfortunately, Bolsanaro is a complete c*nt.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,332
    Ukraine:

    Two weeks ago I posted that the following fortnight would see some notable strategic developments, not all of them good news.

    My timing was out but the nature of some of these developments is now becoming clear.

    1. Ukraine has now acknowledged out loud something that has been bothering them for a few weeks, a possible assault from Belarus. Senior Ukrainians now think its more likely than not.

    2. The withdrawal of Russian support for the grain shipment program is no surprise, it was coming. The question is whether their support matters. The West can basically manage that escort and Russia will do fuck all about it. Its a question of whether the will is there. Someone should count how many Turkish vessels are in theater, they could do that all themselves.

    3. The attack on city infrastructure continues as the Ukrainians knew it would. The expectation was 2-3 weeks, and we are now firmly into week 3 with some of the heaviest missile salvos yet. The expectation was that Russian stocks of cruise missiles was running low, they are, just not quite as low as many thought.

    4. On the battlefield, the Ukrainians havent quite made the advances that the optimists predicted. Its by no means bad as the Russians have made any notable breakthrough in response, but they have bolstered their defences, mainly to try to keep the front line away from Crimea. Cracks grow very quickly but its not quite there so far for the Ukrainians.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,160
    The top search on Google in Russia over the last 60 days has been:

    "How to break your arm at home"
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    rcs1000 said:

    The top search on Google in Russia over the last 60 days has been:

    "How to break your arm at home"

    Are you just being humerus?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    Yokes said:

    Ukraine:

    Two weeks ago I posted that the following fortnight would see some notable strategic developments, not all of them good news.

    My timing was out but the nature of some of these developments is now becoming clear.

    1. Ukraine has now acknowledged out loud something that has been bothering them for a few weeks, a possible assault from Belarus. Senior Ukrainians now think its more likely than not.

    2. The withdrawal of Russian support for the grain shipment program is no surprise, it was coming. The question is whether their support matters. The West can basically manage that escort and Russia will do fuck all about it. Its a question of whether the will is there. Someone should count how many Turkish vessels are in theater, they could do that all themselves.

    3. The attack on city infrastructure continues as the Ukrainians knew it would. The expectation was 2-3 weeks, and we are now firmly into week 3 with some of the heaviest missile salvos yet. The expectation was that Russian stocks of cruise missiles was running low, they are, just not quite as low as many thought.

    4. On the battlefield, the Ukrainians havent quite made the advances that the optimists predicted. Its by no means bad as the Russians have made any notable breakthrough in response, but they have bolstered their defences, mainly to try to keep the front line away from Crimea. Cracks grow very quickly but its not quite there so far for the Ukrainians.

    Headlines like “food prices to get even higher thanks to stop in grain shipment” today, but for some people in the world it’s more than the inconvenience of food inflation in Waitrose, it’s a matter of life or death. Hunger because of some unfathomable war very from away from them acting on commodity. 😢
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668
    edited November 2022
    Selebian said:

    Good news

    Britishvolt secures funding

    BBC News - UK battery firm Britishvolt averts collapse as funding secured
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63459393

    So someone believes they have potential, despite current problems? :wink:
    Short. It's terminal.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Indians as rats, then. Totally fine.

    Here you go:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karni_Mata_Temple

    "The temple is also a popular destination for tourists and pilgrims and is renowned, both in India and internationally, as the “Temple of Rats” due to the numerous mice known as kābā which are considered holy and treated with utmost care by the devotees."
    I don’t want to come over all Basil faulty but, are we sure those things looking much like twenty thousand rats are mice?

    If I find a long chewy tail in my halwa bar, can I take it back to the gift shop and complain?
    Fazil Balti
    I love Balti! Always my first choice.

    Did you see Dr Pratt using kitten as blotter yet? 😂
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Zelensky wanted war, according to Lula.

    @kjovano
    Zelensky "is as responsible as Putin for the war", Brazil's incoming president, Lula, tells Time.

    Lula blames Nato for the war, completely ignoring Russian officials' attacks on #Ukraine's national identity.


    https://twitter.com/kjovano/status/1587057798382338049

    Bolsonaro’s position was neutrality in the conflict? Bizarrely not much difference between the two of them on this?

    Not a position I fear serves Brazil very well.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Is Sunak cleverer than we think?

    Braverman is taking all the oxygen and is a total lightening rod whilst the PM gets on in peace prepping the economics for 17th Nov.

    A very helpful lightning rod - this the most recognisable face and most talked about politician from the government?

    Or. What is Sievella’s domination of the media narrative doing to the Sunak Honeymoon? 😟



  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Discussion today.
    Child: Who's the new President?
    TA: We don't have a president we have a new Prime Minister.
    Child: So what's his name?
    TA: (Perhaps ahead of the game) Keir Starmer.
    Child: No. The one who looks like Roddy from Flushed Away.
    Me: Rishi Sunak. Puts up picture of Roddy and Rishi.
    Child and TA: Ha ha. Yes he does. Useless.

    No political indoctrination there by the TA…
    The point is the TA doesn't even know who the PM is.
    They can earn 16% more on the tills at Lidl. And earn during the holidays too. If you want a decent education for our kids, then be prepared to pay for it.
    I’m not an expert in how teaching works in practice (although naturally I have strong views…)

    I suspect that TAs have their role - but governments have replaced teachers with them to save cost vs optimise education

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259
    NeilVW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The top search on Google in Russia over the last 60 days has been:

    "How to break your arm at home"

    Are you just being humerus?
    Looking for a fee-more likely.

    I’ll get my coat
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    In my opinion, the government, media and think tanks are still struggling to explain to us where a £40bn black hole appeared from, when and how it appeared. Todays Express, Telegraph and Mail show government preparing markets and us for no surprises on budget day, with dire warnings of higher tax on way.

    But. Take this gibberish for example "While the recent focus has been on conditions improving post-Trussonomics, the central picture remains one of a weaker growth, higher borrowing costs and expensive tax cuts that have left a fiscal hole of at least £40 billion to fill."

    What expensive tax cuts?

    https://news.sky.com/story/tax-rises-likely-as-government-faces-unpalatable-menu-to-fill-40bn-black-hole-leading-think-tank-warns-12735375

    Looking at the Sky charts - I’m no economic wizard girl, I don’t even have a GCSE in maths - but is tax up, funding cuts and austerity 2.0 really what those charts are telling us? Or quite the opposite? There’s one chart with gas price so low it makes Truss promise of 2 years of help look a tad unnecessary to put it politely, but look at how much money saved by not doing that, so what’s the best use of this money?

    Cut VAT. VAT holidays. Help footfall, help businesses, help growth in my opinion.

    The policy behind the coming budget is not adding up in my opinion.
  • Gold Trip has won the Melbourne Cup.
  • Nancy Pelosi: Man charged with attempted kidnap and assault
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-63435454

    Sounds like some idiot who planned to kidnap and interrogate Pelosi, forcing her to reveal the truth about... well, unfortunately it does not say. The stolen election, the Kennedy assassination, UFOs, who knows?

    Whatever, another American who fell down the alt-right rabbit hole to jail.
  • Israel votes today.

    Only Smarkets has a market, sfaict (well, and the related SBK), and less than a thousand pounds has been traded so I'd not take it seriously as a predictive medium, or a betting one. Fwiw, Netanyahu is favourite to become Prime Minister again. Yair Lapid is the incumbent PM.

    This will be the fifth legislative election to take place in the last three and a half years, as no party since 2019 has been able to form a stable coalition.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Israeli_legislative_election

  • Selebian said:

    Good news

    Britishvolt secures funding

    BBC News - UK battery firm Britishvolt averts collapse as funding secured
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63459393

    So someone believes they have potential, despite current problems? :wink:
    It's amp-le.
    Ohm-I-God !
    Resistance is useless!!!
  • Agree and significant considering he introduced the current system.



    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-members-must-not-pick-next-leader-7cjq3s6wh
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    kle4 said:

    Endillion said:

    The Democrats being level in the Senate seems extraordinary once you consider all the sparsely populated red states having 2 senators each.

    Maryland. Hawaii. Rhode Island. Connecticut. Vermont. New Hampshire. Delaware.

    The issue of "states that aren't big enough to be states" is pretty much a wash. At least the red ones are physically large enough to not look ridicuous.
    It's remarkable to me only 10 states have a population above 10 million, with 11 below 1.5m. I'd be interested what the spread was like with the original states.

    The United Arab Emirates is also pretty remarkable, with 4 of them amounting to around 8% of the population, and the other 4 taking up the remaining 91%.

    I guess it shouldn't be a surprise, given the country I live in, but I still am.
    There’s 8 Emirates? Damn, I must have missed one ;)

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Arab_Emirates
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,900
    edited November 2022

    Agree and significant considering he introduced the current system.



    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-members-must-not-pick-next-leader-7cjq3s6wh

    You've just posted that in order to reignite the "who coined not fit for purpose" discussion from yesterday.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    1,000 dead Russian soldiers yesterday, and 1,500 more injured. For how much longer will the average Russian support this war?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,748
    Had Rishi Sunak appointed someone else as Home Sec, what would the media have found to fill their pages with this week I wonder.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,748
    Sandpit said:

    1,000 dead Russian soldiers yesterday, and 1,500 more injured. For how much longer will the average Russian support this war?

    Is it that relevant what the average Russian thinks? I’m unpersuaded that Russian civil society is capable of a truly ground up revolution at this point. I personally lean towards Putin staying in power until his natural death. Unless Ukraine retake Sevastopol, harder to predict what happens then.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Discussion today.
    Child: Who's the new President?
    TA: We don't have a president we have a new Prime Minister.
    Child: So what's his name?
    TA: (Perhaps ahead of the game) Keir Starmer.
    Child: No. The one who looks like Roddy from Flushed Away.
    Me: Rishi Sunak. Puts up picture of Roddy and Rishi.
    Child and TA: Ha ha. Yes he does. Useless.

    No political indoctrination there by the TA…
    The point is the TA doesn't even know who the PM is.
    They can earn 16% more on the tills at Lidl. And earn during the holidays too. If you want a decent education for our kids, then be prepared to pay for it.
    I’m not an expert in how teaching works in practice (although naturally I have strong views…)

    I suspect that TAs have their role - but governments have replaced teachers with them to save cost vs optimise education

    Well, not really, or at least, not directly. The reason they’re so much more common in state schools now is because lots of children who simply cannot cope in mainstream schools have been forced into them by the closure of schools dedicated to teaching children with special needs.

    Which was partly in the interests of economy but mostly due to the idea that ‘inclusion’ of everyone in one school was better for everyone.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    rcs1000 said:

    MikeL said:

    The Democrats being level in the Senate seems extraordinary once you consider all the sparsely populated red states having 2 senators each.

    Worth noting that in the 2020 Presidential Election, Biden and Trump both won 25 states (Biden also won the District of Columbia).

    So the two "extra" Electoral College votes for each state which are not proportional made no difference at all (in fact Biden gained a net two as he won DC).

    The point is there are a fair number of small states which the Dems win - both Vermont and Delaware have one House seat; Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Hawaii all have two House seats.
    Two very large states : Texas and Florida are pretty reliably red.
    Florida voted for Obama twice and elected Bill Nelson as Senator three times. About 40% of its House representatives are Dems.

    Yes, it leans Republican but I wouldn’t describe it as ‘pretty reliably red.’

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    I’m slightly disturbed he felt the need to spell it out:

    Blackouts would be last resort, says National Grid chief
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63458441
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,900
    edited November 2022
    ydoethur said:

    I’m slightly disturbed he felt the need to spell it out:

    Blackouts would be last resort, says National Grid chief
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63458441

    An acquaintance who went to live in America in 1990-odd was astonished that the richest country in the world could not reliably distribute electricity, where blackouts and brownouts were almost weekly occurrences. Did we import the name? iirc Britain in the 1970s had power cuts; blackouts were a wartime tactic to confuse the Luftwaffe.

    ETA power cuts and WFH will be an uncertain combination. It would be ironic if the lights stay off because National Grid staff can't turn on their PCs to restore power to the rest of us.
  • In my opinion, the government, media and think tanks are still struggling to explain to us where a £40bn black hole appeared from, when and how it appeared. Todays Express, Telegraph and Mail show government preparing markets and us for no surprises on budget day, with dire warnings of higher tax on way.

    But. Take this gibberish for example "While the recent focus has been on conditions improving post-Trussonomics, the central picture remains one of a weaker growth, higher borrowing costs and expensive tax cuts that have left a fiscal hole of at least £40 billion to fill."

    What expensive tax cuts?

    https://news.sky.com/story/tax-rises-likely-as-government-faces-unpalatable-menu-to-fill-40bn-black-hole-leading-think-tank-warns-12735375

    Looking at the Sky charts - I’m no economic wizard girl, I don’t even have a GCSE in maths - but is tax up, funding cuts and austerity 2.0 really what those charts are telling us? Or quite the opposite? There’s one chart with gas price so low it makes Truss promise of 2 years of help look a tad unnecessary to put it politely, but look at how much money saved by not doing that, so what’s the best use of this money?

    Cut VAT. VAT holidays. Help footfall, help businesses, help growth in my opinion.

    The policy behind the coming budget is not adding up in my opinion.

    we already have the highest tax take for generations - No point in a "tory" government as it is socialist anyway
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437
    Ishmael_Z said:

    She is just fundamentally stupid. Truss level stupid. If she had ok ed the hotels we wouldn't be where we are now, and no one would have known much about it. By refusing to and letting Manston become an issue she has highlighted that we are spending 2.5bn a year on this shit. Great if she can then say, Yay! I am the solution to this problem. Less so if she just looks like the cause of it.

    What you've outlined seems pretty clever to me.

    Though if she doesn't have a solution, or anything like one, she's on borrowed time, but that was the case anyway.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    edited November 2022
    moonshine said:

    Sandpit said:

    1,000 dead Russian soldiers yesterday, and 1,500 more injured. For how much longer will the average Russian support this war?

    Is it that relevant what the average Russian thinks? I’m unpersuaded that Russian civil society is capable of a truly ground up revolution at this point. I personally lean towards Putin staying in power until his natural death. Unless Ukraine retake Sevastopol, harder to predict what happens then.
    The only issue in Russian thinking is how much acreage did those 2,500 buy? Those 300,000 conscripts bought Putin over 100 days at that rate of attrition is what he will think. That's a whole winter of Ukrainians with limited water and electricity.

    They will break. Or at least, their western backers will break on their behalf, is what Putin will be thinking. Backed by Stop the War coalitions across those countries, instigated by actors well funded from Moscow for decades.
  • In my opinion, the government, media and think tanks are still struggling to explain to us where a £40bn black hole appeared from, when and how it appeared. Todays Express, Telegraph and Mail show government preparing markets and us for no surprises on budget day, with dire warnings of higher tax on way.

    But. Take this gibberish for example "While the recent focus has been on conditions improving post-Trussonomics, the central picture remains one of a weaker growth, higher borrowing costs and expensive tax cuts that have left a fiscal hole of at least £40 billion to fill."

    What expensive tax cuts?

    https://news.sky.com/story/tax-rises-likely-as-government-faces-unpalatable-menu-to-fill-40bn-black-hole-leading-think-tank-warns-12735375

    Looking at the Sky charts - I’m no economic wizard girl, I don’t even have a GCSE in maths - but is tax up, funding cuts and austerity 2.0 really what those charts are telling us? Or quite the opposite? There’s one chart with gas price so low it makes Truss promise of 2 years of help look a tad unnecessary to put it politely, but look at how much money saved by not doing that, so what’s the best use of this money?

    Cut VAT. VAT holidays. Help footfall, help businesses, help growth in my opinion.

    The policy behind the coming budget is not adding up in my opinion.

    we already have the highest tax take for generations - No point in a "tory" government as it is socialist anyway
    It's not socialism. It's just lots of old people.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    edited November 2022

    ydoethur said:

    I’m slightly disturbed he felt the need to spell it out:

    Blackouts would be last resort, says National Grid chief
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63458441

    An acquaintance who went to live in America in 1990-odd was astonished that the richest country in the world could not reliably distribute electricity, where blackouts and brownouts were almost weekly occurrences. Did we import the name? iirc Britain in the 1970s had power cuts; blackouts were a wartime tactic to confuse the Luftwaffe.

    ETA power cuts and WFH will be an uncertain combination. It would be ironic if the lights stay off because National Grid staff can't turn on their PCs to restore power to the rest of us.
    I remember very well the blackouts of the early 70s. 4hr blackouts at various parts of the daytime. Fridays were always 10am til 2pm , then 6pm till 10pm in our area, and other weekdays were of a reverse pattern. I also remember schools being off for 6weeks in January/February due to lack of coal etc. I think it was either 71 or 72.

    I also remember streetlights being on at odd times of the day/night due to their timers being upset by the power cuts.

    Candles throwing weird shadows in the evenings, house fire numbers rising...
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    edited November 2022

    In my opinion, the government, media and think tanks are still struggling to explain to us where a £40bn black hole appeared from, when and how it appeared. Todays Express, Telegraph and Mail show government preparing markets and us for no surprises on budget day, with dire warnings of higher tax on way.

    But. Take this gibberish for example "While the recent focus has been on conditions improving post-Trussonomics, the central picture remains one of a weaker growth, higher borrowing costs and expensive tax cuts that have left a fiscal hole of at least £40 billion to fill."

    What expensive tax cuts?

    https://news.sky.com/story/tax-rises-likely-as-government-faces-unpalatable-menu-to-fill-40bn-black-hole-leading-think-tank-warns-12735375

    Looking at the Sky charts - I’m no economic wizard girl, I don’t even have a GCSE in maths - but is tax up, funding cuts and austerity 2.0 really what those charts are telling us? Or quite the opposite? There’s one chart with gas price so low it makes Truss promise of 2 years of help look a tad unnecessary to put it politely, but look at how much money saved by not doing that, so what’s the best use of this money?

    Cut VAT. VAT holidays. Help footfall, help businesses, help growth in my opinion.

    The policy behind the coming budget is not adding up in my opinion.

    we already have the highest tax take for generations - No point in a "tory" government as it is socialist anyway
    It's not socialism. It's just lots of old people.
    partly to blame but no backbone from them on insisting old folk pay for their care (even if just a charge on their homes ) Absurd we are taxing heavily work and enterprise and not housing wealth which will only be used for inheritance to a lucky bunch of (usually) 60 year olds.This government has no point because it is afraid of its own shadow
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    rcs1000 said:

    Zelensky wanted war, according to Lula.

    @kjovano
    Zelensky "is as responsible as Putin for the war", Brazil's incoming president, Lula, tells Time.

    Lula blames Nato for the war, completely ignoring Russian officials' attacks on #Ukraine's national identity.


    https://twitter.com/kjovano/status/1587057798382338049

    Lula is a c*nt.

    Unfortunately, Bolsanaro is a complete c*nt.
    BRICS will be pricks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    ydoethur said:

    I’m slightly disturbed he felt the need to spell it out:

    Blackouts would be last resort, says National Grid chief
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63458441

    An acquaintance who went to live in America in 1990-odd was astonished that the richest country in the world could not reliably distribute electricity, where blackouts and brownouts were almost weekly occurrences. Did we import the name? iirc Britain in the 1970s had power cuts; blackouts were a wartime tactic to confuse the Luftwaffe.

    ETA power cuts and WFH will be an uncertain combination. It would be ironic if the lights stay off because National Grid staff can't turn on their PCs to restore power to the rest of us.
    I remember very well the blackouts of the early 70s. 4hr blackouts at various parts of the daytime. Fridays were always 10am til 2pm , then 6pm till 10pm in our area, and other weekdays were of a reverse pattern. I also remember schools being off for 6weeks in January/February due to lack of coal etc. I think it was either 71 or 72.

    I also remember streetlights being on at odd times of the day/night due to their timers being upset by the power cuts.

    Candles throwing weird shadows in the evenings, house fire numbers rising...
    I remember them being a fairly frequent occurrence in rural Gloucestershire in the late 1980s as well.

    I've no idea why they were so common. At least twice it was due to major faults in the local grid, until it was upgraded. And bad weather could also be a factor as winds would bring down the power lines.

    But I think sometimes because of the reliance on coal and nuclear, which are very inflexible, the power suppliers simply couldn't balance demand properly and would cut power to smaller areas in the hope nobody important would notice what had happened.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437

    Labour MP saying on Newsnight that the problem is that it takes two years to deal with the claims. Tory MP saying pretty much the same thing. Just another consequence of austerity and lack of resources?

    I wonder what the 'assumption' is. Suspects are presumed innocent until proven guilty, but I'm not sure about assylum claims and whether they're considered genuine until proven false.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    Labour MP saying on Newsnight that the problem is that it takes two years to deal with the claims. Tory MP saying pretty much the same thing. Just another consequence of austerity and lack of resources?

    I wonder what the 'assumption' is. Suspects are presumed innocent until proven guilty, but I'm not sure about assylum claims and whether they're considered genuine until proven false.
    Under international law, anyone has the right to apply for asylum in any country that has signed the 1951 Convention and to remain there until the authorities have assessed their claim

    https://www.refugeecouncil.org.uk/information/refugee-asylum-facts/the-truth-about-asylum/

    So, yes, basically.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I’m slightly disturbed he felt the need to spell it out:

    Blackouts would be last resort, says National Grid chief
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63458441

    An acquaintance who went to live in America in 1990-odd was astonished that the richest country in the world could not reliably distribute electricity, where blackouts and brownouts were almost weekly occurrences. Did we import the name? iirc Britain in the 1970s had power cuts; blackouts were a wartime tactic to confuse the Luftwaffe.

    ETA power cuts and WFH will be an uncertain combination. It would be ironic if the lights stay off because National Grid staff can't turn on their PCs to restore power to the rest of us.
    I remember very well the blackouts of the early 70s. 4hr blackouts at various parts of the daytime. Fridays were always 10am til 2pm , then 6pm till 10pm in our area, and other weekdays were of a reverse pattern. I also remember schools being off for 6weeks in January/February due to lack of coal etc. I think it was either 71 or 72.

    I also remember streetlights being on at odd times of the day/night due to their timers being upset by the power cuts.

    Candles throwing weird shadows in the evenings, house fire numbers rising...
    I remember them being a fairly frequent occurrence in rural Gloucestershire in the late 1980s as well.

    I've no idea why they were so common. At least twice it was due to major faults in the local grid, until it was upgraded. And bad weather could also be a factor as winds would bring down the power lines.

    But I think sometimes because of the reliance on coal and nuclear, which are very inflexible, the power suppliers simply couldn't balance demand properly and would cut power to smaller areas in the hope nobody important would notice what had happened.
    Yes, and I also remember power cuts in South Oxfordshire/Reading as recently as 2015-2020s due to poor infrastrucure etc. hardly an apology from the providers or distributors either.
  • In my opinion, the government, media and think tanks are still struggling to explain to us where a £40bn black hole appeared from, when and how it appeared. Todays Express, Telegraph and Mail show government preparing markets and us for no surprises on budget day, with dire warnings of higher tax on way.

    But. Take this gibberish for example "While the recent focus has been on conditions improving post-Trussonomics, the central picture remains one of a weaker growth, higher borrowing costs and expensive tax cuts that have left a fiscal hole of at least £40 billion to fill."

    What expensive tax cuts?

    https://news.sky.com/story/tax-rises-likely-as-government-faces-unpalatable-menu-to-fill-40bn-black-hole-leading-think-tank-warns-12735375

    Looking at the Sky charts - I’m no economic wizard girl, I don’t even have a GCSE in maths - but is tax up, funding cuts and austerity 2.0 really what those charts are telling us? Or quite the opposite? There’s one chart with gas price so low it makes Truss promise of 2 years of help look a tad unnecessary to put it politely, but look at how much money saved by not doing that, so what’s the best use of this money?

    Cut VAT. VAT holidays. Help footfall, help businesses, help growth in my opinion.

    The policy behind the coming budget is not adding up in my opinion.

    we already have the highest tax take for generations - No point in a "tory" government as it is socialist anyway
    It's not socialism. It's just lots of old people.
    It's neither socialism nor lots of old people. It's Brexit.

    That's rubbish, I hear you say. After 12 years of Conservative economic policy, surely it must be socialism? Well, on the grounds that all economic statistics are rubbish, tax take relative to GDP is problematic because GDP has been artificially constrained by the global financial crisis, austerity, then Brexit, Covid and Ukraine). Trussonomics was right about one thing.

    But running up the tax take in anticipation of Brexit was government policy under Theresa May and her Chancellor, Philip Hammond.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,671

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I’m slightly disturbed he felt the need to spell it out:

    Blackouts would be last resort, says National Grid chief
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63458441

    An acquaintance who went to live in America in 1990-odd was astonished that the richest country in the world could not reliably distribute electricity, where blackouts and brownouts were almost weekly occurrences. Did we import the name? iirc Britain in the 1970s had power cuts; blackouts were a wartime tactic to confuse the Luftwaffe.

    ETA power cuts and WFH will be an uncertain combination. It would be ironic if the lights stay off because National Grid staff can't turn on their PCs to restore power to the rest of us.
    I remember very well the blackouts of the early 70s. 4hr blackouts at various parts of the daytime. Fridays were always 10am til 2pm , then 6pm till 10pm in our area, and other weekdays were of a reverse pattern. I also remember schools being off for 6weeks in January/February due to lack of coal etc. I think it was either 71 or 72.

    I also remember streetlights being on at odd times of the day/night due to their timers being upset by the power cuts.

    Candles throwing weird shadows in the evenings, house fire numbers rising...
    I remember them being a fairly frequent occurrence in rural Gloucestershire in the late 1980s as well.

    I've no idea why they were so common. At least twice it was due to major faults in the local grid, until it was upgraded. And bad weather could also be a factor as winds would bring down the power lines.

    But I think sometimes because of the reliance on coal and nuclear, which are very inflexible, the power suppliers simply couldn't balance demand properly and would cut power to smaller areas in the hope nobody important would notice what had happened.
    Yes, and I also remember power cuts in South Oxfordshire/Reading as recently as 2015-2020s due to poor infrastrucure etc. hardly an apology from the providers or distributors either.
    Quite a lot in the Western Isles too. You can't really complain that much though...
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I’m slightly disturbed he felt the need to spell it out:

    Blackouts would be last resort, says National Grid chief
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63458441

    An acquaintance who went to live in America in 1990-odd was astonished that the richest country in the world could not reliably distribute electricity, where blackouts and brownouts were almost weekly occurrences. Did we import the name? iirc Britain in the 1970s had power cuts; blackouts were a wartime tactic to confuse the Luftwaffe.

    ETA power cuts and WFH will be an uncertain combination. It would be ironic if the lights stay off because National Grid staff can't turn on their PCs to restore power to the rest of us.
    I remember very well the blackouts of the early 70s. 4hr blackouts at various parts of the daytime. Fridays were always 10am til 2pm , then 6pm till 10pm in our area, and other weekdays were of a reverse pattern. I also remember schools being off for 6weeks in January/February due to lack of coal etc. I think it was either 71 or 72.

    I also remember streetlights being on at odd times of the day/night due to their timers being upset by the power cuts.

    Candles throwing weird shadows in the evenings, house fire numbers rising...
    I remember them being a fairly frequent occurrence in rural Gloucestershire in the late 1980s as well.

    I've no idea why they were so common. At least twice it was due to major faults in the local grid, until it was upgraded. And bad weather could also be a factor as winds would bring down the power lines.

    But I think sometimes because of the reliance on coal and nuclear, which are very inflexible, the power suppliers simply couldn't balance demand properly and would cut power to smaller areas in the hope nobody important would notice what had happened.
    Yes, and I also remember power cuts in South Oxfordshire/Reading as recently as 2015-2020s due to poor infrastrucure etc. hardly an apology from the providers or distributors either.
    Also the interconnectors to Europe are more sturdy and capacious than they were, helping to smooth out peaks and troughs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    First off topic post of the thread.

    Is the other surprise return of Gove also a problem?

    My start the week FaceTime with Yorkshire has got me wondering if he is a help or problem for Sunak.

    When Gove launched rebellion against Truss, the Mail and other organs went for him, and my mum bought into all that. Now she’s struggling with him popping up on the TV as the spokesperson for the Tory’s, so soon after being the rebel leader decried by the Ayatollah voice of the Mail who told her not to like or trust him.

    Do you trust him?
    Does anyone.

    But the point I’m making, for those who gather daily for the word of their Prophet, the Mail, has it all come too soon since

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11295263/Michael-Gove-branded-sadistic-harpooning-Liz-Trusss-45p-tax-cut-plan.html

    The poor dears are confused. He’s untrustworthy sadist plotter, who done Truss in. But at least he’s on our side so let’s get behind him.

    See?
    Yes.
    Why would anyone trust the current Conservative party ?

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Twitter gossip today that this Forbes article might be right - that the Admiral Makarov, replacement flagship of the Black Sea fleet after the previous incumbent - the Moscow - was sunk, may itself have been sunk in Saturday's drone attack.

    (That said, it was previously reported that this ship had been sunk earlier in the year, only for that to be debunked.)

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/10/29/the-russian-black-sea-fleet-may-have-lost-another-flagship/?sh=26e977af92e6

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,900
    edited November 2022

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I’m slightly disturbed he felt the need to spell it out:

    Blackouts would be last resort, says National Grid chief
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63458441

    An acquaintance who went to live in America in 1990-odd was astonished that the richest country in the world could not reliably distribute electricity, where blackouts and brownouts were almost weekly occurrences. Did we import the name? iirc Britain in the 1970s had power cuts; blackouts were a wartime tactic to confuse the Luftwaffe.

    ETA power cuts and WFH will be an uncertain combination. It would be ironic if the lights stay off because National Grid staff can't turn on their PCs to restore power to the rest of us.
    I remember very well the blackouts of the early 70s. 4hr blackouts at various parts of the daytime. Fridays were always 10am til 2pm , then 6pm till 10pm in our area, and other weekdays were of a reverse pattern. I also remember schools being off for 6weeks in January/February due to lack of coal etc. I think it was either 71 or 72.

    I also remember streetlights being on at odd times of the day/night due to their timers being upset by the power cuts.

    Candles throwing weird shadows in the evenings, house fire numbers rising...
    I remember them being a fairly frequent occurrence in rural Gloucestershire in the late 1980s as well.

    I've no idea why they were so common. At least twice it was due to major faults in the local grid, until it was upgraded. And bad weather could also be a factor as winds would bring down the power lines.

    But I think sometimes because of the reliance on coal and nuclear, which are very inflexible, the power suppliers simply couldn't balance demand properly and would cut power to smaller areas in the hope nobody important would notice what had happened.
    Yes, and I also remember power cuts in South Oxfordshire/Reading as recently as 2015-2020s due to poor infrastrucure etc. hardly an apology from the providers or distributors either.
    Grid infrastructure is not what it was. Privatisation and its concomitant regionalisation are partly to blame. After the hurricane, the then-Central Electricity Generating Board could move teams from the north to repair storm damage in the South East. Now, no-one has the big picture.

    ETA although as @Daveyboy1961 notes, we are tied to Europe.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Nigelb said:

    First off topic post of the thread.

    Is the other surprise return of Gove also a problem?

    My start the week FaceTime with Yorkshire has got me wondering if he is a help or problem for Sunak.

    When Gove launched rebellion against Truss, the Mail and other organs went for him, and my mum bought into all that. Now she’s struggling with him popping up on the TV as the spokesperson for the Tory’s, so soon after being the rebel leader decried by the Ayatollah voice of the Mail who told her not to like or trust him.

    Do you trust him?
    Does anyone.

    But the point I’m making, for those who gather daily for the word of their Prophet, the Mail, has it all come too soon since

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11295263/Michael-Gove-branded-sadistic-harpooning-Liz-Trusss-45p-tax-cut-plan.html

    The poor dears are confused. He’s untrustworthy sadist plotter, who done Truss in. But at least he’s on our side so let’s get behind him.

    See?
    Yes.
    Why would anyone trust the current Conservative party ?

    Well, for now, Mr Market does. Which is what matters.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,039
    edited November 2022

    In my opinion, the government, media and think tanks are still struggling to explain to us where a £40bn black hole appeared from, when and how it appeared. Todays Express, Telegraph and Mail show government preparing markets and us for no surprises on budget day, with dire warnings of higher tax on way.

    But. Take this gibberish for example "While the recent focus has been on conditions improving post-Trussonomics, the central picture remains one of a weaker growth, higher borrowing costs and expensive tax cuts that have left a fiscal hole of at least £40 billion to fill."

    What expensive tax cuts?

    https://news.sky.com/story/tax-rises-likely-as-government-faces-unpalatable-menu-to-fill-40bn-black-hole-leading-think-tank-warns-12735375

    Looking at the Sky charts - I’m no economic wizard girl, I don’t even have a GCSE in maths - but is tax up, funding cuts and austerity 2.0 really what those charts are telling us? Or quite the opposite? There’s one chart with gas price so low it makes Truss promise of 2 years of help look a tad unnecessary to put it politely, but look at how much money saved by not doing that, so what’s the best use of this money?

    Cut VAT. VAT holidays. Help footfall, help businesses, help growth in my opinion.

    The policy behind the coming budget is not adding up in my opinion.

    we already have the highest tax take for generations - No point in a "tory" government as it is socialist anyway
    It's not socialism. It's just lots of old people.
    Then how come Germany and Japan have higher shares of old people than we do but lower taxes as a % of GDP?

    It's no single item of expenditure, but an attitude. It's lazy and complacent governments over the last twenty years terrified of short-term unpopularity trying to buy popularity with public spending believing - rightly it seems - that the taxpayer will always cough up and that the long-term effects on the country's growth will be somebody else's problem.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437
    ydoethur said:

    Labour MP saying on Newsnight that the problem is that it takes two years to deal with the claims. Tory MP saying pretty much the same thing. Just another consequence of austerity and lack of resources?

    I wonder what the 'assumption' is. Suspects are presumed innocent until proven guilty, but I'm not sure about assylum claims and whether they're considered genuine until proven false.
    Under international law, anyone has the right to apply for asylum in any country that has signed the 1951 Convention and to remain there until the authorities have assessed their claim

    https://www.refugeecouncil.org.uk/information/refugee-asylum-facts/the-truth-about-asylum/

    So, yes, basically.
    I always spell asylum wrong!

    Hmm. Whilst asylum claims need to be given a fair and thorough hearing, I think where a person is looking to change the status of something 'I wasn't permitted to be in the UK - I am now permitted to be in the UK' there is a strong argument for changing that burden of proof. I think (for example) that if someone is fleeing from persecution, and manages to make the journey with their attire relatively undisturbed, and potentially other possessions on them, there needs to be a very good reason why they've left, lost or given away their papers.

  • Good news

    Britishvolt secures funding

    BBC News - UK battery firm Britishvolt averts collapse as funding secured
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63459393

    Aston Martin and Lotus aren't mass market car makes, they need bigger carmakers.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    I’m waiting for Braverman to do a De Santis type move and book up loads of hotels in constituencies of people such as Yvette Cooper etc and bus-in asylum seekers and sit back and wait for the reaction from their constituents.

    I think she’s mean enough to do it.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    Ishmael_Z said:

    I hope the gullible twats who believed the bollocks about Nancy Pelosi's husband gamble.

    Like taking candy from a baby.

    Jesus

    Distinguished elderly gentleman accused of gay relationship, shockkkk!!!

    Police say don't be silly, phewwwww!!!

    Can you say Lou-is Mount-bat-ten?
    By the same right wing sources that have been inciting violence against Democrats in general, and Pelosi in particular, for years.
    I wonder why they'd be trying to stir up baseless rumours ?

    Do you have any evidence at all for your belief in the truth of their smears against the victim of what looks like attempted murder ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    In my opinion, the government, media and think tanks are still struggling to explain to us where a £40bn black hole appeared from, when and how it appeared. Todays Express, Telegraph and Mail show government preparing markets and us for no surprises on budget day, with dire warnings of higher tax on way.

    But. Take this gibberish for example "While the recent focus has been on conditions improving post-Trussonomics, the central picture remains one of a weaker growth, higher borrowing costs and expensive tax cuts that have left a fiscal hole of at least £40 billion to fill."

    What expensive tax cuts?

    https://news.sky.com/story/tax-rises-likely-as-government-faces-unpalatable-menu-to-fill-40bn-black-hole-leading-think-tank-warns-12735375

    Looking at the Sky charts - I’m no economic wizard girl, I don’t even have a GCSE in maths - but is tax up, funding cuts and austerity 2.0 really what those charts are telling us? Or quite the opposite? There’s one chart with gas price so low it makes Truss promise of 2 years of help look a tad unnecessary to put it politely, but look at how much money saved by not doing that, so what’s the best use of this money?

    Cut VAT. VAT holidays. Help footfall, help businesses, help growth in my opinion.

    The policy behind the coming budget is not adding up in my opinion.

    we already have the highest tax take for generations - No point in a "tory" government as it is socialist anyway
    Socialist would have been what Corbyn would have done - maxxed out the borrowing in the first few months of taking power. Then left with nothing to support the furlough schemes when Covid hit. But hey, the private sector could go swing in the breeze under Corbyn.

    THAT is socialism.

    Anybody saying what Sunak did was anything other than a pragmatic approach to keeping the private sector alive through Covid is talking bollocks.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    edited November 2022
    I heard the leader of a Tory council in Kent this morning on 5L, started off by throwing his hands up at the numbers coming over. By the end of his interview he had admitted the numbers were very similar to the early 2000s, and the biggest issues were backlogs of processing causing overcrowding. Yet again this sorry business can be brought to the desks of Tory Home secretaries not doing their job. When you cut off or slim down the easier routes to applications the asylum seekers will then choose other routes, less easy and more dangerous to them. If 80% of the asylum seekers are successful in the end, why not make it more straightforward in the first palce with more offices in France and Belgium, with paid passage on a ferry. So much cheaper and easier on the people of Kent compared to now. I wouldn't be averse to returning the boat people to France if a proper system was in place there.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    boulay said:

    I’m waiting for Braverman to do a De Santis type move and book up loads of hotels in constituencies of people such as Yvette Cooper etc and bus-in asylum seekers and sit back and wait for the reaction from their constituents.

    I think she’s mean enough to do it.

    EXCL: Senior Home Office source tells me Home Sec refused to sign off on hotel bookings for migrants at Manston last week “because they were in Tory areas”. @LBC
    https://twitter.com/charlotterlynch/status/1587346765107322882
  • In my opinion, the government, media and think tanks are still struggling to explain to us where a £40bn black hole appeared from, when and how it appeared. Todays Express, Telegraph and Mail show government preparing markets and us for no surprises on budget day, with dire warnings of higher tax on way.

    But. Take this gibberish for example "While the recent focus has been on conditions improving post-Trussonomics, the central picture remains one of a weaker growth, higher borrowing costs and expensive tax cuts that have left a fiscal hole of at least £40 billion to fill."

    What expensive tax cuts?

    https://news.sky.com/story/tax-rises-likely-as-government-faces-unpalatable-menu-to-fill-40bn-black-hole-leading-think-tank-warns-12735375

    Looking at the Sky charts - I’m no economic wizard girl, I don’t even have a GCSE in maths - but is tax up, funding cuts and austerity 2.0 really what those charts are telling us? Or quite the opposite? There’s one chart with gas price so low it makes Truss promise of 2 years of help look a tad unnecessary to put it politely, but look at how much money saved by not doing that, so what’s the best use of this money?

    Cut VAT. VAT holidays. Help footfall, help businesses, help growth in my opinion.

    The policy behind the coming budget is not adding up in my opinion.

    we already have the highest tax take for generations - No point in a "tory" government as it is socialist anyway
    Socialist would have been what Corbyn would have done - maxxed out the borrowing in the first few months of taking power. Then left with nothing to support the furlough schemes when Covid hit. But hey, the private sector could go swing in the breeze under Corbyn.

    THAT is socialism.

    Anybody saying what Sunak did was anything other than a pragmatic approach to keeping the private sector alive through Covid is talking bollocks.
    stop being so aggressive - its a not very redeeming featureof PB these days that it is becoming very aggressive , rude and crude. On your point about it being "bollocks" we are past covid now
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,090
    ydoethur said:

    Labour MP saying on Newsnight that the problem is that it takes two years to deal with the claims. Tory MP saying pretty much the same thing. Just another consequence of austerity and lack of resources?

    I wonder what the 'assumption' is. Suspects are presumed innocent until proven guilty, but I'm not sure about assylum claims and whether they're considered genuine until proven false.
    Under international law, anyone has the right to apply for asylum in any country that has signed the 1951 Convention and to remain there until the authorities have assessed their claim

    https://www.refugeecouncil.org.uk/information/refugee-asylum-facts/the-truth-about-asylum/

    So, yes, basically.
    People can stay while their claim is being processed, but they’re not allowed to work. Most are held in detention centres, unless coming under the exceptions here: https://www.gov.uk/claim-asylum/after-your-screening So, it’s more like being treated as guilty until you can prove your case.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    ydoethur said:

    Labour MP saying on Newsnight that the problem is that it takes two years to deal with the claims. Tory MP saying pretty much the same thing. Just another consequence of austerity and lack of resources?

    I wonder what the 'assumption' is. Suspects are presumed innocent until proven guilty, but I'm not sure about assylum claims and whether they're considered genuine until proven false.
    Under international law, anyone has the right to apply for asylum in any country that has signed the 1951 Convention and to remain there until the authorities have assessed their claim

    https://www.refugeecouncil.org.uk/information/refugee-asylum-facts/the-truth-about-asylum/

    So, yes, basically.
    People can stay while their claim is being processed, but they’re not allowed to work. Most are held in detention centres, unless coming under the exceptions here: https://www.gov.uk/claim-asylum/after-your-screening So, it’s more like being treated as guilty until you can prove your case.
    Held on remand.
  • https://twitter.com/charlotterlynch/status/1587346765107322882?t=xxffgoI2teuxfbrWCFXCTw&s=19

    So Braverman was refusing to book hotels as they were in Tory areas...
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    Labour MP saying on Newsnight that the problem is that it takes two years to deal with the claims. Tory MP saying pretty much the same thing. Just another consequence of austerity and lack of resources?

    I wonder what the 'assumption' is. Suspects are presumed innocent until proven guilty, but I'm not sure about assylum claims and whether they're considered genuine until proven false.
    Under international law, anyone has the right to apply for asylum in any country that has signed the 1951 Convention and to remain there until the authorities have assessed their claim

    https://www.refugeecouncil.org.uk/information/refugee-asylum-facts/the-truth-about-asylum/

    So, yes, basically.
    People can stay while their claim is being processed, but they’re not allowed to work. Most are held in detention centres, unless coming under the exceptions here: https://www.gov.uk/claim-asylum/after-your-screening So, it’s more like being treated as guilty until you can prove your case.
    Held on remand.
    in concentration camps....

    ...who do you think you are kidding, Mr Hitler.....
  • EXCL: Senior Home Office source tells me Home Sec refused to sign off on hotel bookings for migrants at Manston last week “because they were in Tory areas”. @LBC

    https://twitter.com/charlotterlynch/status/1587346765107322882?s=46&t=Ylgqqlho9rXQMgaCzRYIOQ
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593

    Nigelb said:

    First off topic post of the thread.

    Is the other surprise return of Gove also a problem?

    My start the week FaceTime with Yorkshire has got me wondering if he is a help or problem for Sunak.

    When Gove launched rebellion against Truss, the Mail and other organs went for him, and my mum bought into all that. Now she’s struggling with him popping up on the TV as the spokesperson for the Tory’s, so soon after being the rebel leader decried by the Ayatollah voice of the Mail who told her not to like or trust him.

    Do you trust him?
    Does anyone.

    But the point I’m making, for those who gather daily for the word of their Prophet, the Mail, has it all come too soon since

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11295263/Michael-Gove-branded-sadistic-harpooning-Liz-Trusss-45p-tax-cut-plan.html

    The poor dears are confused. He’s untrustworthy sadist plotter, who done Truss in. But at least he’s on our side so let’s get behind him.

    See?
    Yes.
    Why would anyone trust the current Conservative party ?

    Well, for now, Mr Market does. Which is what matters.
    "Trust" is a bit strong. I would say "cautiously optimistic that they are going to behave in a moderate and predictable fashion."

    Let's hope that's still the case after the next not-a-budget. (I am fairly optimistic that this will be the case.)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    "Wasn't the mistake that the Home Secretary made getting caught?" - @skynewsniall

    Robert Jenrick says there wasn't "a serious breach of security" by Suella Braverman when documents were sent from her government email to her personal email.

    https://trib.al/Rx0iR33

    📺 Sky 501 https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1587350913055875073/video/1
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,039

    In my opinion, the government, media and think tanks are still struggling to explain to us where a £40bn black hole appeared from, when and how it appeared. Todays Express, Telegraph and Mail show government preparing markets and us for no surprises on budget day, with dire warnings of higher tax on way.

    But. Take this gibberish for example "While the recent focus has been on conditions improving post-Trussonomics, the central picture remains one of a weaker growth, higher borrowing costs and expensive tax cuts that have left a fiscal hole of at least £40 billion to fill."

    What expensive tax cuts?

    https://news.sky.com/story/tax-rises-likely-as-government-faces-unpalatable-menu-to-fill-40bn-black-hole-leading-think-tank-warns-12735375

    Looking at the Sky charts - I’m no economic wizard girl, I don’t even have a GCSE in maths - but is tax up, funding cuts and austerity 2.0 really what those charts are telling us? Or quite the opposite? There’s one chart with gas price so low it makes Truss promise of 2 years of help look a tad unnecessary to put it politely, but look at how much money saved by not doing that, so what’s the best use of this money?

    Cut VAT. VAT holidays. Help footfall, help businesses, help growth in my opinion.

    The policy behind the coming budget is not adding up in my opinion.

    we already have the highest tax take for generations - No point in a "tory" government as it is socialist anyway
    Socialist would have been what Corbyn would have done - maxxed out the borrowing in the first few months of taking power. Then left with nothing to support the furlough schemes when Covid hit. But hey, the private sector could go swing in the breeze under Corbyn.

    THAT is socialism.

    Anybody saying what Sunak did was anything other than a pragmatic approach to keeping the private sector alive through Covid is talking bollocks.
    Paying my perfectly healthy 30-something neighbours to sunbathe for months to stop a disease that kills mostly 80 year olds with preexisting conditions isn't pragmatic, it's crazy, as is wasting £37 billion - almost the defence budget - on PPE from their mates, and, unsurprisingly, has created a huge culture of laziness and dependency in this country and elsewhere (or rather hugely increased a culture that was already there).
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    I heard the leader of a Tory council in Kent this morning on 5L, started off by throwing his hands up at the numbers coming over. By the end of his interview he had admitted the numbers were very similar to the early 2000s, and the biggest issues were backlogs of processing causing overcrowding. Yet again this sorry business can be brought to the desks of Tory Home secretaries not doing their job. When you cut off or slim down the easier routes to applications the asylum seekers will then choose other routes, less easy and more dangerous to them. If 80% of the asylum seekers are successful in the end, why not make it more straightforward in the first palce with more offices in France and Belgium, with paid passage on a ferry. So much cheaper and easier on the people of Kent compared to now. I wouldn't be averse to returning the boat people to France if a proper system was in place there.

    Because the only practical way of rationing asylum is preventing them getting here in the first place, if they are guaranteed to succeed when they get here.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Yeah it's another classic.

    We want something to be done about asylum seekers but don't want to pay to put the systems in place which would do just that.

    I heard the 75% success rate on the radio yesterday also, the problem being the time it takes to get to a decision.

    Oh and the influx of foreigners if you don't like foreigners.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    I heard the leader of a Tory council in Kent this morning on 5L, started off by throwing his hands up at the numbers coming over. By the end of his interview he had admitted the numbers were very similar to the early 2000s, and the biggest issues were backlogs of processing causing overcrowding. Yet again this sorry business can be brought to the desks of Tory Home secretaries not doing their job. When you cut off or slim down the easier routes to applications the asylum seekers will then choose other routes, less easy and more dangerous to them. If 80% of the asylum seekers are successful in the end, why not make it more straightforward in the first palce with more offices in France and Belgium, with paid passage on a ferry. So much cheaper and easier on the people of Kent compared to now. I wouldn't be averse to returning the boat people to France if a proper system was in place there.

    Because the only practical way of rationing asylum is preventing them getting here in the first place, if they are guaranteed to succeed when they get here.
    .....practical.....
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Braverman made clear she had ignored the law limiting detention to 48 hrs, but what does Sunak do?
    Given all those Tory MPs who agreed with her, will he order her to change policy?

    And if not, where does it leave his "integrity" pledge?

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/rishi-sunaks-support-of-suella-braverman-is-putting-his-premiership-in-increasing-danger-1945944
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    In my opinion, the government, media and think tanks are still struggling to explain to us where a £40bn black hole appeared from, when and how it appeared. Todays Express, Telegraph and Mail show government preparing markets and us for no surprises on budget day, with dire warnings of higher tax on way.

    But. Take this gibberish for example "While the recent focus has been on conditions improving post-Trussonomics, the central picture remains one of a weaker growth, higher borrowing costs and expensive tax cuts that have left a fiscal hole of at least £40 billion to fill."

    What expensive tax cuts?

    https://news.sky.com/story/tax-rises-likely-as-government-faces-unpalatable-menu-to-fill-40bn-black-hole-leading-think-tank-warns-12735375

    Looking at the Sky charts - I’m no economic wizard girl, I don’t even have a GCSE in maths - but is tax up, funding cuts and austerity 2.0 really what those charts are telling us? Or quite the opposite? There’s one chart with gas price so low it makes Truss promise of 2 years of help look a tad unnecessary to put it politely, but look at how much money saved by not doing that, so what’s the best use of this money?

    Cut VAT. VAT holidays. Help footfall, help businesses, help growth in my opinion.

    The policy behind the coming budget is not adding up in my opinion.

    we already have the highest tax take for generations - No point in a "tory" government as it is socialist anyway
    Socialist would have been what Corbyn would have done - maxxed out the borrowing in the first few months of taking power. Then left with nothing to support the furlough schemes when Covid hit. But hey, the private sector could go swing in the breeze under Corbyn.

    THAT is socialism.

    Anybody saying what Sunak did was anything other than a pragmatic approach to keeping the private sector alive through Covid is talking bollocks.
    stop being so aggressive - its a not very redeeming featureof PB these days that it is becoming very aggressive , rude and crude. On your point about it being "bollocks" we are past covid now
    Yes, we are past Covid (hopefully) - but that does nothing to invalidate the point I was making.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Good news

    Britishvolt secures funding

    BBC News - UK battery firm Britishvolt averts collapse as funding secured
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63459393

    Aston Martin and Lotus aren't mass market car makes, they need bigger carmakers.
    The new Lotus Eletre SUV is going to be built in Wuhan (JUST LIKE SOMETHING ELSE THAT WAS MANUFACTURED THERE!) so they aren't going to be shipping battery packs to China for that.

    AM have no definite BEV model on their roadmap and their hybid, the fucking awful Valhalla, uses a Merc powertrain.

    I honestly think they've just chucked out the names of two semi-prestigous UK manufacturers to catch the eye.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    Yokes said:

    Ukraine:

    Two weeks ago I posted that the following fortnight would see some notable strategic developments, not all of them good news.

    My timing was out but the nature of some of these developments is now becoming clear.

    1. Ukraine has now acknowledged out loud something that has been bothering them for a few weeks, a possible assault from Belarus. Senior Ukrainians now think its more likely than not.

    2. The withdrawal of Russian support for the grain shipment program is no surprise, it was coming. The question is whether their support matters. The West can basically manage that escort and Russia will do fuck all about it. Its a question of whether the will is there. Someone should count how many Turkish vessels are in theater, they could do that all themselves.

    3. The attack on city infrastructure continues as the Ukrainians knew it would. The expectation was 2-3 weeks, and we are now firmly into week 3 with some of the heaviest missile salvos yet. The expectation was that Russian stocks of cruise missiles was running low, they are, just not quite as low as many thought.

    4. On the battlefield, the Ukrainians havent quite made the advances that the optimists predicted. Its by no means bad as the Russians have made any notable breakthrough in response, but they have bolstered their defences, mainly to try to keep the front line away from Crimea. Cracks grow very quickly but its not quite there so far for the Ukrainians.

    Headlines like “food prices to get even higher thanks to stop in grain shipment” today, but for some people in the world it’s more than the inconvenience of food inflation in Waitrose, it’s a matter of life or death. Hunger because of some unfathomable war very from away from them acting on commodity. 😢
    Government are going to have to step in to provide insurance cover, though.
    The current lot of ships are covered from before Putin abrogated the grain agreement - but the next lot won't be, and won't sail without cover.

  • TOPPING said:

    Yeah it's another classic.

    We want something to be done about asylum seekers but don't want to pay to put the systems in place which would do just that.

    I heard the 75% success rate on the radio yesterday also, the problem being the time it takes to get to a decision.

    Oh and the influx of foreigners if you don't like foreigners.

    ...unless they are doing our jobs for us....

    ....and paying our taxes for us....

This discussion has been closed.