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Some better MidTerms polling for the Dems – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 3 in General
imageSome better MidTerms polling for the Dems – politicalbetting.com

The US mid-term elections which take place a week tomorrow look as though they’re going to be very tight indeed. The Republicans look certain to take the House of Representatives but in the Senate it is a completely different picture and there’s a good chance that the Democrats will be able to hold on to control.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,157
    The Democrats being level in the Senate seems extraordinary once you consider all the sparsely populated red states having 2 senators each.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,157
    Oh and first
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,421

    Oh and first

    I demand a recount!
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,421

    Oh and first

    I demand a recount!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited October 31
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1453028259311071242?t=WGHLiurAIqkMO1bm9WiHXA&s=19
    Polling from 2021 stating people generally prefer traumatising pets to helping children suffer from chronic obesity
    We are a nation at peace with our sociopathy

    Im bored, does it show?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,262
    The last 2 midterms in a President's first term, 2010 and 2018, saw the President's party lose the House but hold the Senate.

    On current polls 2022 looks little different
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,904

    Oh and first

    I demand a recount!
    If 50% of posts on this thread are to be you demanding a recount then it's going to be a very boring thread.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,333
    @Gardenwalker
    On the previous thread you stated that asylum seekers only became an issue in 2021. Was that a joke?

    This story, from 2016, was after a crisis when the Calais camp was closed after several years: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/05/refugees-northern-france-dunkirk-calais-camp-demolished

    My daughter was in Calais working for CaringforCalais in 2019. It has been a problem for 20 years at least.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,157
    ydoethur said:

    Oh and first

    I demand a recount!
    If 50% of posts on this thread are to be you demanding a recount then it's going to be a very boring thread.
    Yes but there's only a 20% chance of that.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,693
    DavidL said:

    @Gardenwalker
    On the previous thread you stated that asylum seekers only became an issue in 2021. Was that a joke?

    This story, from 2016, was after a crisis when the Calais camp was closed after several years: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/05/refugees-northern-france-dunkirk-calais-camp-demolished

    My daughter was in Calais working for CaringforCalais in 2019. It has been a problem for 20 years at least.

    I am talking about the crossings.
    Have an eyeball at this:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-53734793.amp

    Speaking of the camps, one doesn’t hear much about them anymore. Are they still as big a problem as they were?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    First off topic post of the thread.

    Is the other surprise return of Gove also a problem?

    My start the week FaceTime with Yorkshire has got me wondering if he is a help or problem for Sunak.

    When Gove launched rebellion against Truss, the Mail and other organs went for him, and my mum bought into all that. Now she’s struggling with him popping up on the TV as the spokesperson for the Tory’s, so soon after being the rebel leader decried by the Ayatollah voice of the Mail who told her not to like or trust him.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,693
    Why does Italy receive so comparatively few asylum applications considering its geography?

    Again, this whole issue is filed with murkiness and half-truths. No wonder Farage is making hay.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,649

    Oh and first

    Stolen!!!
  • glwglw Posts: 8,790

    DavidL said:

    @Gardenwalker
    On the previous thread you stated that asylum seekers only became an issue in 2021. Was that a joke?

    This story, from 2016, was after a crisis when the Calais camp was closed after several years: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/05/refugees-northern-france-dunkirk-calais-camp-demolished

    My daughter was in Calais working for CaringforCalais in 2019. It has been a problem for 20 years at least.

    I am talking about the crossings.
    Have an eyeball at this:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-53734793.amp

    Speaking of the camps, one doesn’t hear much about them anymore. Are they still as big a problem as they were?
    The route has changed — chunnel to channel — but the problem goes way, way back. It's still the same fundamental problem.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,251
    New Chair of Foreign Affairs Select Committee @aliciakearns says she understands PM wants to stay in the UK but tells @TheNewsAgents the King should go to Cop27: “I do think we need to see very senior representation…do I think the King going would send a v strong message- I do.”
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1587185194787868677
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,066

    Why does Italy receive so comparatively few asylum applications considering its geography?

    Again, this whole issue is filed with murkiness and half-truths. No wonder Farage is making hay.

    The fewer ID documents are needed to function in a country the more popular it'll be.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,486
    edited October 31
    Hadn't picked up on this story of the midterms before.

    It's 157 years since the US constitution banned chattel slavery - in which one person is the legal property of another - but left in place an exemption for convicted prisoners.

    Throughout most of the US, slavery is still legal as punishment for a crime.

    But on 8 November, voters in five states - Alabama, Louisiana, Oregon, Tennessee and Vermont - will decide whether to remove these exemptions from their state constitutions in an effort to ban slavery entirely.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63338784

    I confess I have no idea what the situation is for prisoners in the UK. Also, is it worrying that the story felt it necessary to define what slavery is?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,698
    Why do all hotels (from Travelodges to Hilton's) tuck everything in so tightly, to the extent you have to remake the whole bed?

    Best accommodation in the UK is Torridon Youth Hostel, I reckon.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,486
    Scott_xP said:

    New Chair of Foreign Affairs Select Committee @aliciakearns says she understands PM wants to stay in the UK but tells @TheNewsAgents the King should go to Cop27: “I do think we need to see very senior representation…do I think the King going would send a v strong message- I do.”
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1587185194787868677

    Too late now. Sunak has followed Truss in making he clear he doesn't want to go, and not wanting the king to go either.

    Don't really get the thinking behind this one. Seems to me the PM not going but sending the king would be a low cost way of making a gesture, whilst showing leg to those who don't care about the issue.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,712
    On topic, from the header I now know which candidate is the Dem in four states. Yay!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,486
    Still doing run offs in Georgia?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New Chair of Foreign Affairs Select Committee @aliciakearns says she understands PM wants to stay in the UK but tells @TheNewsAgents the King should go to Cop27: “I do think we need to see very senior representation…do I think the King going would send a v strong message- I do.”
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1587185194787868677

    Too late now. Sunak has followed Truss in making he clear he doesn't want to go, and not wanting the king to go either.

    Don't really get the thinking behind this one. Seems to me the PM not going but sending the king would be a low cost way of making a gesture, whilst showing leg to those who don't care about the issue.
    Charles would probably commit us to banning all electricity by 2025
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,065
    Eabhal said:

    Why do all hotels (from Travelodges to Hilton's) tuck everything in so tightly, to the extent you have to remake the whole bed?

    Best accommodation in the UK is Torridon Youth Hostel, I reckon.

    Kearvaig Bothy. ;)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,693
    Emily Maitlis

    Bluntly ,the immigration numbers have grown bigger since Brexit not smaller. The reason is not “ marauding criminal gangs “ ( more than 80% whose cases are heard are ultimately granted asylum) but a break down in relations with France and others ..

    https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1587164254720999427?s=46&t=jj_4fS92tOBU7xJJcKHtpw
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,553
    Much of the narrative of the last week has been the Dems in real trouble in the senate . Much of this caused by the vast majority of polling in key races being released by GOP leaning organizations.

    That’s not to say that the GOP can’t win the senate . The polls are very close and the US economic calendar throws up some key releases which could have an impact .

    The Fed are expected to lift rates by another 0.75% on Wednesday , the chair Powell has been accused of trying to cause a recession by over the top hikes . Some have suggested he’s a Trump stooge and should have been fired when Biden took office.

    At the end of the week theres the unemployment rate and other jobs data.


  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,197

    Why does Italy receive so comparatively few asylum applications considering its geography?

    Again, this whole issue is filed with murkiness and half-truths. No wonder Farage is making hay.

    It's economy is sclerotic, it's politically unpredictable, racism is rife and few speak Italian.

    Italy is just a doormat. Serious migrants will go to Germany, Sweden or the UK.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,197

    DavidL said:

    @Gardenwalker
    On the previous thread you stated that asylum seekers only became an issue in 2021. Was that a joke?

    This story, from 2016, was after a crisis when the Calais camp was closed after several years: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/05/refugees-northern-france-dunkirk-calais-camp-demolished

    My daughter was in Calais working for CaringforCalais in 2019. It has been a problem for 20 years at least.

    I am talking about the crossings.
    Have an eyeball at this:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-53734793.amp

    Speaking of the camps, one doesn’t hear much about them anymore. Are they still as big a problem as they were?
    Ports and airports were closed during Covid, and most people were locked down or policing that making it a bit easier to move around northern France.

    It's in 2020 that the crossings took off.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,197
    On topic, I've gone for NOM for the senate on Exchange.

    I've also backed 50 republican seats at 6/1
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    edited October 31
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New Chair of Foreign Affairs Select Committee @aliciakearns says she understands PM wants to stay in the UK but tells @TheNewsAgents the King should go to Cop27: “I do think we need to see very senior representation…do I think the King going would send a v strong message- I do.”
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1587185194787868677

    Too late now. Sunak has followed Truss in making he clear he doesn't want to go, and not wanting the king to go either.

    Don't really get the thinking behind this one. Seems to me the PM not going but sending the king would be a low cost way of making a gesture, whilst showing leg to those who don't care about the issue.
    Too late? Sunak will have his case already packed between now and end of PMQs.

    He’s definitely going.
  • Emily Maitlis

    Bluntly ,the immigration numbers have grown bigger since Brexit not smaller. The reason is not “ marauding criminal gangs “ ( more than 80% whose cases are heard are ultimately granted asylum) but a break down in relations with France and others ..

    https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1587164254720999427?s=46&t=jj_4fS92tOBU7xJJcKHtpw

    The worst thing about Brexit, it has made the UK supplicants to France.

    A national tragedy.
  • I hope the gullible twats who believed the bollocks about Nancy Pelosi's husband gamble.

    Like taking candy from a baby.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    edited October 31

    Why does Italy receive so comparatively few asylum applications considering its geography?

    Again, this whole issue is filed with murkiness and half-truths. No wonder Farage is making hay.

    It's economy is sclerotic, it's politically unpredictable, racism is rife and few speak Italian.

    Italy is just a doormat. Serious migrants will go to Germany, Sweden or the UK.

    What about the argument it’s the Black Economy that is attractive, not the “official” one or even benefit system?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,693

    Why does Italy receive so comparatively few asylum applications considering its geography?

    Again, this whole issue is filed with murkiness and half-truths. No wonder Farage is making hay.

    It's economy is sclerotic, it's politically unpredictable, racism is rife and few speak Italian.

    Italy is just a doormat. Serious migrants will go to Germany, Sweden or the UK.

    Economically sclerotic and politically unpredictable you say?
  • nico679 said:

    Much of the narrative of the last week has been the Dems in real trouble in the senate . Much of this caused by the vast majority of polling in key races being released by GOP leaning organizations.

    That’s not to say that the GOP can’t win the senate . The polls are very close and the US economic calendar throws up some key releases which could have an impact .

    The Fed are expected to lift rates by another 0.75% on Wednesday , the chair Powell has been accused of trying to cause a recession by over the top hikes . Some have suggested he’s a Trump stooge and should have been fired when Biden took office.

    At the end of the week theres the unemployment rate and other jobs data.


    I've backed the GOP taking the Senate but I'm also backing them at 49 seats because I can see a scenario where the Ds eek out wins in GA and NV, and they take PA.

    However, when you have stories such as this, it's clear the Ds have a major issue.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/democrats-ramp-spending-blue-districts-gop-sees-red-wave-forming-rcna54506

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,486

    Why does Italy receive so comparatively few asylum applications considering its geography?

    Again, this whole issue is filed with murkiness and half-truths. No wonder Farage is making hay.

    It's economy is sclerotic, it's politically unpredictable, racism is rife and few speak Italian.

    Italy is just a doormat. Serious migrants will go to Germany, Sweden or the UK.

    Economically sclerotic and politically unpredictable you say?
    I yearn for economically unpredictable and politically sclerotic.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,330

    Emily Maitlis

    Bluntly ,the immigration numbers have grown bigger since Brexit not smaller. The reason is not “ marauding criminal gangs “ ( more than 80% whose cases are heard are ultimately granted asylum) but a break down in relations with France and others ..

    https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1587164254720999427?s=46&t=jj_4fS92tOBU7xJJcKHtpw

    French police officers would stop the boats instead of watching them leave from the beach if we were still in the EU? Don't think so.

    IIRC we have signed at least one new agreement with France on this issue since Brexit, so relations seem to be at least functioning, even if not warm.

    Also, her suggestion that 80% being granted means they are genuine applicants seems a bit, shall we say, generous.

    Apparently it's "project one's own prejudice and ignore the facts" on all sides. As you point out, though, this situation would be improved if we were actually had the facts.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,698

    The Democrats being level in the Senate seems extraordinary once you consider all the sparsely populated red states having 2 senators each.

    Maryland. Hawaii. Rhode Island. Connecticut. Vermont. New Hampshire. Delaware.

    The issue of "states that aren't big enough to be states" is pretty much a wash. At least the red ones are physically large enough to not look ridicuous.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,330

    Why does Italy receive so comparatively few asylum applications considering its geography?

    Again, this whole issue is filed with murkiness and half-truths. No wonder Farage is making hay.

    It's economy is sclerotic, it's politically unpredictable, racism is rife and few speak Italian.

    Italy is just a doormat. Serious migrants will go to Germany, Sweden or the UK.

    What about the argument it’s the Black Economy that is attractive, not the “official” one or even benefit system?
    There is also @rcs1000's theory that asylum is not the primary purpose; it is the second choice when caught.

    So many mutually-contervailing theories, so few hard facts.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,262
    edited October 31

    Why does Italy receive so comparatively few asylum applications considering its geography?

    Again, this whole issue is filed with murkiness and half-truths. No wonder Farage is making hay.

    It's economy is sclerotic, it's politically unpredictable, racism is rife and few speak Italian.

    Italy is just a doormat. Serious migrants will go to Germany, Sweden or the UK.

    Italy is more beautiful than all 3 of those nations, including our own, has better food and better weather and generally friendly people. Economically gdp per capita wise northern Italy is on a par with Germany, Sweden and us anyway, it is southern Italy where most of the poverty is.

    Given the rise of the AfD, Sweden Democrats and Brexit it is not as if Italy is alone in not wanting uncontrolled immigration either. As we are now on our 3rd PM this year and Italy only on its second we can hardly say we are more politically predictable
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,486
    edited October 31
    Endillion said:

    The Democrats being level in the Senate seems extraordinary once you consider all the sparsely populated red states having 2 senators each.

    Maryland. Hawaii. Rhode Island. Connecticut. Vermont. New Hampshire. Delaware.

    The issue of "states that aren't big enough to be states" is pretty much a wash. At least the red ones are physically large enough to not look ridicuous.
    It's remarkable to me only 10 states have a population above 10 million, with 11 below 1.5m. I'd be interested what the spread was like with the original states.

    The United Arab Emirates is also pretty remarkable, with 4 of them amounting to around 8% of the population, and the other 4 taking up the remaining 91%.

    I guess it shouldn't be a surprise, given the country I live in, but I still am.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,625

    First off topic post of the thread.

    Is the other surprise return of Gove also a problem?

    My start the week FaceTime with Yorkshire has got me wondering if he is a help or problem for Sunak.

    When Gove launched rebellion against Truss, the Mail and other organs went for him, and my mum bought into all that. Now she’s struggling with him popping up on the TV as the spokesperson for the Tory’s, so soon after being the rebel leader decried by the Ayatollah voice of the Mail who told her not to like or trust him.

    Do you trust him?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,786
    I suppose that the illegal migrants who have no papers are DNA-profiled when they are processed here. Or is that too much to expect?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,625
    carnforth said:

    Emily Maitlis

    Bluntly ,the immigration numbers have grown bigger since Brexit not smaller. The reason is not “ marauding criminal gangs “ ( more than 80% whose cases are heard are ultimately granted asylum) but a break down in relations with France and others ..

    https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1587164254720999427?s=46&t=jj_4fS92tOBU7xJJcKHtpw

    French police officers would stop the boats instead of watching them leave from the beach if we were still in the EU? Don't think so.

    IIRC we have signed at least one new agreement with France on this issue since Brexit, so relations seem to be at least functioning, even if not warm.

    Also, her suggestion that 80% being granted means they are genuine applicants seems a bit, shall we say, generous.

    Apparently it's "project one's own prejudice and ignore the facts" on all sides. As you point out, though, this situation would be improved if we were actually had the facts.
    Are 80% granted? That seems absurdly high?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,434
    Endillion said:

    The Democrats being level in the Senate seems extraordinary once you consider all the sparsely populated red states having 2 senators each.

    Maryland. Hawaii. Rhode Island. Connecticut. Vermont. New Hampshire. Delaware.

    The issue of "states that aren't big enough to be states" is pretty much a wash. At least the red ones are physically large enough to not look ridicuous.
    Maryland doesn't belong in that list, it is in the top 20 US states by population.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,553

    nico679 said:

    Much of the narrative of the last week has been the Dems in real trouble in the senate . Much of this caused by the vast majority of polling in key races being released by GOP leaning organizations.

    That’s not to say that the GOP can’t win the senate . The polls are very close and the US economic calendar throws up some key releases which could have an impact .

    The Fed are expected to lift rates by another 0.75% on Wednesday , the chair Powell has been accused of trying to cause a recession by over the top hikes . Some have suggested he’s a Trump stooge and should have been fired when Biden took office.

    At the end of the week theres the unemployment rate and other jobs data.


    I've backed the GOP taking the Senate but I'm also backing them at 49 seats because I can see a scenario where the Ds eek out wins in GA and NV, and they take PA.

    However, when you have stories such as this, it's clear the Ds have a major issue.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/democrats-ramp-spending-blue-districts-gop-sees-red-wave-forming-rcna54506

    I fancy Fetterman to win in PA, his recovery from the stroke and his appeal as in touch with people’s concerns compared to the slimy Oz.

    NV looks more difficult for the Dems and I think GA will go to a run off so more obscene amounts of money likely to be spent by both sides upto the 6 December .
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,330

    carnforth said:

    Emily Maitlis

    Bluntly ,the immigration numbers have grown bigger since Brexit not smaller. The reason is not “ marauding criminal gangs “ ( more than 80% whose cases are heard are ultimately granted asylum) but a break down in relations with France and others ..

    https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1587164254720999427?s=46&t=jj_4fS92tOBU7xJJcKHtpw

    French police officers would stop the boats instead of watching them leave from the beach if we were still in the EU? Don't think so.

    IIRC we have signed at least one new agreement with France on this issue since Brexit, so relations seem to be at least functioning, even if not warm.

    Also, her suggestion that 80% being granted means they are genuine applicants seems a bit, shall we say, generous.

    Apparently it's "project one's own prejudice and ignore the facts" on all sides. As you point out, though, this situation would be improved if we were actually had the facts.
    Are 80% granted? That seems absurdly high?
    I doubt it overall. Someone suggested the other night that, with this backlog, they are doing the easy cases first, so it could be 80% at the moment, though.
  • Just as well spurs and English cricketers don't have make or break games on the same day tomorrow.....
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,932
    edited October 31

    The Democrats being level in the Senate seems extraordinary once you consider all the sparsely populated red states having 2 senators each.

    Worth noting that in the 2020 Presidential Election, Biden and Trump both won 25 states (Biden also won the District of Columbia).

    So the two "extra" Electoral College votes for each state which are not proportional made no difference at all (in fact Biden gained a net two as he won DC).

    The point is there are a fair number of small states which the Dems win - both Vermont and Delaware have one House seat; Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Hawaii all have two House seats.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,625

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New Chair of Foreign Affairs Select Committee @aliciakearns says she understands PM wants to stay in the UK but tells @TheNewsAgents the King should go to Cop27: “I do think we need to see very senior representation…do I think the King going would send a v strong message- I do.”
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1587185194787868677

    Too late now. Sunak has followed Truss in making he clear he doesn't want to go, and not wanting the king to go either.

    Don't really get the thinking behind this one. Seems to me the PM not going but sending the king would be a low cost way of making a gesture, whilst showing leg to those who don't care about the issue.
    Too late? Sunak will have his case already packed between now and end of PMQs.

    He’s definitely going.
    Bit early to write him off as PM already - how do you see the end coming?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New Chair of Foreign Affairs Select Committee @aliciakearns says she understands PM wants to stay in the UK but tells @TheNewsAgents the King should go to Cop27: “I do think we need to see very senior representation…do I think the King going would send a v strong message- I do.”
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1587185194787868677

    Too late now. Sunak has followed Truss in making he clear he doesn't want to go, and not wanting the king to go either.

    Don't really get the thinking behind this one. Seems to me the PM not going but sending the king would be a low cost way of making a gesture, whilst showing leg to those who don't care about the issue.
    Too late? Sunak will have his case already packed between now and end of PMQs.

    He’s definitely going.
    Bit early to write him off as PM already - how do you see the end coming?
    Are you being funny. I’m only referring to a day trip to COP 27.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,771

    Eabhal said:

    Why do all hotels (from Travelodges to Hilton's) tuck everything in so tightly, to the extent you have to remake the whole bed?

    Best accommodation in the UK is Torridon Youth Hostel, I reckon.

    Kearvaig Bothy. ;)
    Oi! Haven't you signed the official MBA Secrets Act? Encrypted communications only.
  • Just as well spurs and English cricketers don't have make or break games on the same day tomorrow.....

    I was offered tickets to the match on Sunday.

    Thinking of saying no.


    Thought you'd appreciate this.


  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571

    First off topic post of the thread.

    Is the other surprise return of Gove also a problem?

    My start the week FaceTime with Yorkshire has got me wondering if he is a help or problem for Sunak.

    When Gove launched rebellion against Truss, the Mail and other organs went for him, and my mum bought into all that. Now she’s struggling with him popping up on the TV as the spokesperson for the Tory’s, so soon after being the rebel leader decried by the Ayatollah voice of the Mail who told her not to like or trust him.

    Do you trust him?
    Does anyone.

    But the point I’m making, for those who gather daily for the word of their Prophet, the Mail, has it all come too soon since

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11295263/Michael-Gove-branded-sadistic-harpooning-Liz-Trusss-45p-tax-cut-plan.html

    The poor dears are confused. He’s untrustworthy sadist plotter, who done Truss in. But at least he’s on our side so let’s get behind him.

    See?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,698

    Eabhal said:

    Why do all hotels (from Travelodges to Hilton's) tuck everything in so tightly, to the extent you have to remake the whole bed?

    Best accommodation in the UK is Torridon Youth Hostel, I reckon.

    Kearvaig Bothy. ;)
    Oi! Haven't you signed the official MBA Secrets Act? Encrypted communications only.
    That bothy freaks me out. Camped outside.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2002/dec/11/scotland
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Elon Musk
    @elonmusk
    ·
    4h
    If I had a dollar for every time someone asked me if Trump is coming back on this platform, Twitter would be minting money!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    George Mann 🫧⚒️🫧
    @sgfmann
    ·
    23m
    FT: Dream of UK battery champion dims as Britishvolt teeters towards collapse #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/sgfmann
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    I want another poll of Indiana as the only two of the campaign are absurdly close and that is bonkers and conpletely out of step with the national picture.

    A 1000 person 1 question google survey of Indiana would only cost me £110 but I need a business account with them.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,625


    George Mann 🫧⚒️🫧
    @sgfmann
    ·
    23m
    FT: Dream of UK battery champion dims as Britishvolt teeters towards collapse #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/sgfmann

    I think if I were in Government, I'd end up having stakes in a lot of businesses (which probably wouldn't be good), because I would find it difficult to see a project like this fail, but at the same time, I wouldn't just give them a pile of money to piss away, I would want a seat at the table.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,251
    Suella Braverman is going nowhere tonight, despite the critics ... as I forecast in today's Chopper's Politics Newsletter. Sign up for free to get ahead of the rest on what is really going on in Westminster: http://telegraph.co.uk/politicsnewsletter https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1587196542686986240/photo/1
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,157
    Perhaps I haven't been paying enough attention but I am not hearing many solutions to the boats issue from our leaders. Braverman may think she's doing well by playing to the gallery, being the darling of the right but what is she going to DO? Overseeing deteriorating conditions at the Marston centre (as a deterrance to stop people coming?) is not a solution.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,465
    edited October 31
    Discussion today.
    Child: Who's the new President?
    TA: We don't have a president we have a new Prime Minister.
    Child: So what's his name?
    TA: (Perhaps ahead of the game) Keir Starmer.
    Child: No. The one who looks like Roddy from Flushed Away.
    Me: Rishi Sunak. Puts up picture of Roddy and Rishi.
    Child and TA: Ha ha. Yes he does. Useless.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,465


    George Mann 🫧⚒️🫧
    @sgfmann
    ·
    23m
    FT: Dream of UK battery champion dims as Britishvolt teeters towards collapse #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/sgfmann

    They were recruiting heavily in job centres in the NE in the Spring. Many jobs offered. Very few started.
    Levelling up highly trumpeted. All a bit fishy.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,251

    Braverman may think she's doing well by playing to the gallery, being the darling of the right but what is she going to DO?

    Ship them to Rwanda.

    That's her dream...
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    I hope the gullible twats who believed the bollocks about Nancy Pelosi's husband gamble.

    Like taking candy from a baby.

    Jesus

    Distinguished elderly gentleman accused of gay relationship, shockkkk!!!

    Police say don't be silly, phewwwww!!!

    Can you say Lou-is Mount-bat-ten?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Scott_xP said:

    Braverman may think she's doing well by playing to the gallery, being the darling of the right but what is she going to DO?

    Ship them to Rwanda.

    That's her dream...
    The hotels are significantly cheaper there.

  • pm215pm215 Posts: 516

    I think if I were in Government, I'd end up having stakes in a lot of businesses (which probably wouldn't be good), because I would find it difficult to see a project like this fail, but at the same time, I wouldn't just give them a pile of money to piss away, I would want a seat at the table.

    That kind of assumes the government being at the table will help rather than hinder, of course :-)

    I think it's important to figure out why we're putting in government money into businesses. Do we want to basically pay money to get jobs in this country? Or are we trying to kickstart real R&D projects? The former probably works better with a smaller number of more established businesses rather than startups. For the latter, though, I think you probably want to back quite a lot of relatively uncertain prospects without being too picky about the application process, and trust that the winners will more than make up for the duds. If you only back sure things then you're not doing anything the markets can't do equally well. Of course this is politically tricky because your opponents will make hay out of the bets that didn't pan out...
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 895
    Frank Booth said: "The Democrats being level in the Senate seems extraordinary once you consider all the sparsely populated red states having 2 senators each."

    Here are the ten least-populated US states, each followed by the winner of the 2020 presidential election:

    New Hampshire (Biden)
    Maine (Biden)
    Rhode Island (Biden)
    Montana (Trump)
    Delaware (Biden)
    South Dakota (Trump)
    North Dakota (Trump)
    Alaska (Trump)
    Vermont (Biden)
    Wyoming (Trump)

    So, 5-5. If you were to take the 12 least-populated, it would be 6-6. If you moved the cut point to the 25 least-populated, you would get a Republican advantage in the smaller states, but I would not call it overwhelming.

    Not so incidentally, Democrats, by ignoring the problems of rural areas for so long, have in effect ceded those states to the Republicans. I am old enough to remember when South Dakota was represented by Democrat George McGovern, and the Democratic Senate Majority Leader was Mike Mansfield of Montana.

    sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election

    Note: Since Maine, like Nebraska, allocates one electoral vote to the winner of each Housedistrict, Trump won one electoral vote there.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,465
    Good news from Brazil.
    No word from Bolsonaro.
    But most allies have accepted the defeat with grace.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_xP said:

    Suella Braverman is going nowhere tonight, despite the critics ... as I forecast in today's Chopper's Politics Newsletter. Sign up for free to get ahead of the rest on what is really going on in Westminster: http://telegraph.co.uk/politicsnewsletter https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1587196542686986240/photo/1

    Yes, that says Look at me I am so clever cos I foretold that if Suella sorts the illegal immigration crisis she'll be fine.

    If.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660

    Frank Booth said: "The Democrats being level in the Senate seems extraordinary once you consider all the sparsely populated red states having 2 senators each."

    Here are the ten least-populated US states, each followed by the winner of the 2020 presidential election:

    New Hampshire (Biden)
    Maine (Biden)
    Rhode Island (Biden)
    Montana (Trump)
    Delaware (Biden)
    South Dakota (Trump)
    North Dakota (Trump)
    Alaska (Trump)
    Vermont (Biden)
    Wyoming (Trump)

    So, 5-5. If you were to take the 12 least-populated, it would be 6-6. If you moved the cut point to the 25 least-populated, you would get a Republican advantage in the smaller states, but I would not call it overwhelming.

    Not so incidentally, Democrats, by ignoring the problems of rural areas for so long, have in effect ceded those states to the Republicans. I am old enough to remember when South Dakota was represented by Democrat George McGovern, and the Democratic Senate Majority Leader was Mike Mansfield of Montana.

    sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election

    Note: Since Maine, like Nebraska, allocates one electoral vote to the winner of each Housedistrict, Trump won one electoral vote there.

    Yes, like poor healthcare provision and underfunded infrastructure.

    Definitely the two issues that the Dems have attempted to do nothing on and had to be dragged there by the GOP.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644

    Why does Italy receive so comparatively few asylum applications considering its geography?

    Again, this whole issue is filed with murkiness and half-truths. No wonder Farage is making hay.

    Why do you say "few"? 2021 figures for asylum applications to EU countries:

    Germany (30.0%)
    France (19.1%)
    Spain (10.4%)
    Italy (8.4%)
    Austria (6.1%)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    dixiedean said:

    Discussion today.
    Child: Who's the new President?
    TA: We don't have a president we have a new Prime Minister.
    Child: So what's his name?
    TA: (Perhaps ahead of the game) Keir Starmer.
    Child: No. The one who looks like Roddy from Flushed Away.
    Me: Rishi Sunak. Puts up picture of Roddy and Rishi.
    Child and TA: Ha ha. Yes he does. Useless.



    . .
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,251
    The Herald: Exports slump by 13% since Brexit #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/sgfmann/status/1587203934564884483/photo/1
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    How long before Jenrick is Home Sec?

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    edited October 31

    carnforth said:

    Emily Maitlis

    Bluntly ,the immigration numbers have grown bigger since Brexit not smaller. The reason is not “ marauding criminal gangs “ ( more than 80% whose cases are heard are ultimately granted asylum) but a break down in relations with France and others ..

    https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1587164254720999427?s=46&t=jj_4fS92tOBU7xJJcKHtpw

    French police officers would stop the boats instead of watching them leave from the beach if we were still in the EU? Don't think so.

    IIRC we have signed at least one new agreement with France on this issue since Brexit, so relations seem to be at least functioning, even if not warm.

    Also, her suggestion that 80% being granted means they are genuine applicants seems a bit, shall we say, generous.

    Apparently it's "project one's own prejudice and ignore the facts" on all sides. As you point out, though, this situation would be improved if we were actually had the facts.
    Are 80% granted? That seems absurdly high?
    I believe the overall figure is 76%. Figure 3 in https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-statistics-year-ending-december-2021/how-many-people-do-we-grant-asylum-or-protection-to is interesting (as is Figure 2). There's a recent increase in Albanian claimants, but they've had a historically lower success rate, so I would presume that 76% will fall, if the UK ever manages to tackle its backlog.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    She is just fundamentally stupid. Truss level stupid. If she had ok ed the hotels we wouldn't be where we are now, and no one would have known much about it. By refusing to and letting Manston become an issue she has highlighted that we are spending 2.5bn a year on this shit. Great if she can then say, Yay! I am the solution to this problem. Less so if she just looks like the cause of it.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    dixiedean said:

    Discussion today.
    Child: Who's the new President?
    TA: We don't have a president we have a new Prime Minister.
    Child: So what's his name?
    TA: (Perhaps ahead of the game) Keir Starmer.
    Child: No. The one who looks like Roddy from Flushed Away.
    Me: Rishi Sunak. Puts up picture of Roddy and Rishi.
    Child and TA: Ha ha. Yes he does. Useless.



    . .
    Let's represent an Indian as a monkey with a tail. I don't see any problem with that, provided there's no bananas in shot.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,465
    Ishmael_Z said:

    She is just fundamentally stupid. Truss level stupid. If she had ok ed the hotels we wouldn't be where we are now, and no one would have known much about it. By refusing to and letting Manston become an issue she has highlighted that we are spending 2.5bn a year on this shit. Great if she can then say, Yay! I am the solution to this problem. Less so if she just looks like the cause of it.

    She's changed the story from her utterly cavalier ignoring of the rules on Ministerial security though.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    Ishmael_Z said:

    I hope the gullible twats who believed the bollocks about Nancy Pelosi's husband gamble.

    Like taking candy from a baby.

    Jesus

    Distinguished elderly gentleman accused of gay relationship, shockkkk!!!

    Police say don't be silly, phewwwww!!!

    Can you say Lou-is Mount-bat-ten?
    It was an obvious libel made up by MAGA/QAnon types.
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 251
    Ishmael_Z said:

    dixiedean said:

    Discussion today.
    Child: Who's the new President?
    TA: We don't have a president we have a new Prime Minister.
    Child: So what's his name?
    TA: (Perhaps ahead of the game) Keir Starmer.
    Child: No. The one who looks like Roddy from Flushed Away.
    Me: Rishi Sunak. Puts up picture of Roddy and Rishi.
    Child and TA: Ha ha. Yes he does. Useless.



    . .
    Let's represent an Indian as a monkey with a tail. I don't see any problem with that, provided there's no bananas in shot.
    It's a rat. From a film that is all rats (except for the frogs)
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    Ishmael_Z said:

    dixiedean said:

    Discussion today.
    Child: Who's the new President?
    TA: We don't have a president we have a new Prime Minister.
    Child: So what's his name?
    TA: (Perhaps ahead of the game) Keir Starmer.
    Child: No. The one who looks like Roddy from Flushed Away.
    Me: Rishi Sunak. Puts up picture of Roddy and Rishi.
    Child and TA: Ha ha. Yes he does. Useless.



    . .
    Let's represent an Indian as a monkey with a tail. I don't see any problem with that, provided there's no bananas in shot.
    Roddy is, I understand, a rat, not a monkey.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 885
    pm215 said:

    I think if I were in Government, I'd end up having stakes in a lot of businesses (which probably wouldn't be good), because I would find it difficult to see a project like this fail, but at the same time, I wouldn't just give them a pile of money to piss away, I would want a seat at the table.

    That kind of assumes the government being at the table will help rather than hinder, of course :-)

    I think it's important to figure out why we're putting in government money into businesses. Do we want to basically pay money to get jobs in this country? Or are we trying to kickstart real R&D projects? The former probably works better with a smaller number of more established businesses rather than startups. For the latter, though, I think you probably want to back quite a lot of relatively uncertain prospects without being too picky about the application process, and trust that the winners will more than make up for the duds. If you only back sure things then you're not doing anything the markets can't do equally well. Of course this is politically tricky because your opponents will make hay out of the bets that didn't pan out...
    Sort of like a green investment bank. Now if only we had one of those.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 895
    Alistair said: "Yes, like poor healthcare provision and underfunded infrastructure.

    Definitely the two issues that the Dems have attempted to do nothing on and had to be dragged there by the GOP."

    Those are good examples for my argument. In recent years, spending on transportation has been tilted toward public transit, that is, toward large cities. There's an extreme example in my own area, Link Light Rail.

    One of the consequences of Obamacare was the loss of many rural hospitals. Some years ago, New York Times reporter Anemona Hartocollis described an academic study that documented that consequence. Look it up, if you don't believe me.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    I hope the gullible twats who believed the bollocks about Nancy Pelosi's husband gamble.

    Like taking candy from a baby.

    Jesus

    Distinguished elderly gentleman accused of gay relationship, shockkkk!!!

    Police say don't be silly, phewwwww!!!

    Can you say Lou-is Mount-bat-ten?
    It was an obvious libel made up by MAGA/QAnon types.
    Yes. But this is quite a sophisticated site, and many of its readers are capable of thinking simultaneously that x is not the case, and that argument y is a completely shit reason for thinking that x is not the case. I don't think that the moon is made of Stilton. Nor do I think that God has a no blue cheese natural satellite rule, so it can't be. Get my point? Probly not.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Indians as rats, then. Totally fine.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,421
    ydoethur said:

    Oh and first

    I demand a recount!
    If 50% of posts on this thread are to be you demanding a recount then it's going to be a very boring thread.
    Welcome to US politics
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    I hope the gullible twats who believed the bollocks about Nancy Pelosi's husband gamble.

    Like taking candy from a baby.

    Jesus

    Distinguished elderly gentleman accused of gay relationship, shockkkk!!!

    Police say don't be silly, phewwwww!!!

    Can you say Lou-is Mount-bat-ten?
    It was an obvious libel made up by MAGA/QAnon types.
    Yes. But this is quite a sophisticated site, and many of its readers are capable of thinking simultaneously that x is not the case, and that argument y is a completely shit reason for thinking that x is not the case. I don't think that the moon is made of Stilton. Nor do I think that God has a no blue cheese natural satellite rule, so it can't be. Get my point? Probly not.
    Great, so you agree it was an obvious libel. Ergo, TSE's point stands. Let's hope the people who believed it gamble because they are fools.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,421

    Why does Italy receive so comparatively few asylum applications considering its geography?

    Again, this whole issue is filed with murkiness and half-truths. No wonder Farage is making hay.

    Because they bundle them onto trains and send them to France and Austria as soon as they land
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,649
    Ishmael_Z said:

    dixiedean said:

    Discussion today.
    Child: Who's the new President?
    TA: We don't have a president we have a new Prime Minister.
    Child: So what's his name?
    TA: (Perhaps ahead of the game) Keir Starmer.
    Child: No. The one who looks like Roddy from Flushed Away.
    Me: Rishi Sunak. Puts up picture of Roddy and Rishi.
    Child and TA: Ha ha. Yes he does. Useless.



    . .
    Let's represent an Indian as a monkey with a tail. I don't see any problem with that, provided there's no bananas in shot.
    Can't you tell the difference between a monkey and a rat?? FFS!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,649
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Indians as rats, then. Totally fine.

    Here you go:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karni_Mata_Temple

    "The temple is also a popular destination for tourists and pilgrims and is renowned, both in India and internationally, as the “Temple of Rats” due to the numerous mice known as kābā which are considered holy and treated with utmost care by the devotees."
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,210

    Why does Italy receive so comparatively few asylum applications considering its geography?

    Again, this whole issue is filed with murkiness and half-truths. No wonder Farage is making hay.

    It's economy is sclerotic, it's politically unpredictable, racism is rife and few speak Italian.
    To be fair, that's also true of the UK. I haven't heard anyone at all speaking Italian in the last week.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,486
    carnforth said:

    Emily Maitlis

    Bluntly ,the immigration numbers have grown bigger since Brexit not smaller. The reason is not “ marauding criminal gangs “ ( more than 80% whose cases are heard are ultimately granted asylum) but a break down in relations with France and others ..

    https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1587164254720999427?s=46&t=jj_4fS92tOBU7xJJcKHtpw

    French police officers would stop the boats instead of watching them leave from the beach if we were still in the EU? Don't think so.

    IIRC we have signed at least one new agreement with France on this issue since Brexit, so relations seem to be at least functioning, even if not warm.

    Also, her suggestion that 80% being granted means they are genuine applicants seems a bit, shall we say, generous.

    Apparently it's "project one's own prejudice and ignore the facts" on all sides. As you point out, though, this situation would be improved if we were actually had the facts.
    The number whose applications are approved varies massively by year, and it will have soared in the year following our withdrawal from Afghanistan. I would be staggered if 80% of boat crossers' asylum applications are approved. (Not that the boat crossers have any intention of entering the asylum system if they can avoid it.)
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,421

    Emily Maitlis

    Bluntly ,the immigration numbers have grown bigger since Brexit not smaller. The reason is not “ marauding criminal gangs “ ( more than 80% whose cases are heard are ultimately granted asylum) but a break down in relations with France and others ..

    https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1587164254720999427?s=46&t=jj_4fS92tOBU7xJJcKHtpw

    France not sticking to their treaty obligations is our fault? Victim blaming special!
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 895
    From the American Hospital Association: "A new report from the AHA highlights the variety of causes that resulted in 136 rural hospital closures from 2010 to 2021, and a record 19 closures in 2020 alone. These include many longstanding pressures, such as low reimbursement, staffing shortages, low patient volume and regulatory barriers, as well as the continued financial challenges associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Recently, expenses for labor, drugs, supplies and equipment have also increased dramatically, ultimately causing difficulties in maintaining access to care for people in rural communities.
    . . .
    The report outlines several pathways for rural hospitals to achieve financial sustainability, including additional federal support, flexible models of care, decreased regulatory burden, partnership arrangements and state Medicaid expansion. In addition, AHA continues to urge Congress to extend the Medicare-dependent Hospital and enhanced Low-volume Adjustment programs, which are set to expire this month. The programs provide vital support for geographically isolated rural hospitals with low patient volumes."
    source: https://www.aha.org/news/headline/2022-09-08-aha-report-rural-hospital-closures-threaten-patient-access-care

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,497

    dixiedean said:

    Discussion today.
    Child: Who's the new President?
    TA: We don't have a president we have a new Prime Minister.
    Child: So what's his name?
    TA: (Perhaps ahead of the game) Keir Starmer.
    Child: No. The one who looks like Roddy from Flushed Away.
    Me: Rishi Sunak. Puts up picture of Roddy and Rishi.
    Child and TA: Ha ha. Yes he does. Useless.



    . .
    Roddy looks nothing like Sunak. He does look like Tony Blair. Typecasting?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,542

    How long before Jenrick is Home Sec?

    He has many Homes, so would be a good fit.
This discussion has been closed.