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Some better MidTerms polling for the Dems – politicalbetting.com
Some better MidTerms polling for the Dems – politicalbetting.com
The US mid-term elections which take place a week tomorrow look as though they’re going to be very tight indeed. The Republicans look certain to take the House of Representatives but in the Senate it is a completely different picture and there’s a good chance that the Democrats will be able to hold on to control.
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Polling from 2021 stating people generally prefer traumatising pets to helping children suffer from chronic obesity
We are a nation at peace with our sociopathy
Im bored, does it show?
On current polls 2022 looks little different
On the previous thread you stated that asylum seekers only became an issue in 2021. Was that a joke?
This story, from 2016, was after a crisis when the Calais camp was closed after several years: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/05/refugees-northern-france-dunkirk-calais-camp-demolished
My daughter was in Calais working for CaringforCalais in 2019. It has been a problem for 20 years at least.
Have an eyeball at this:
https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-53734793.amp
Speaking of the camps, one doesn’t hear much about them anymore. Are they still as big a problem as they were?
Is the other surprise return of Gove also a problem?
My start the week FaceTime with Yorkshire has got me wondering if he is a help or problem for Sunak.
When Gove launched rebellion against Truss, the Mail and other organs went for him, and my mum bought into all that. Now she’s struggling with him popping up on the TV as the spokesperson for the Tory’s, so soon after being the rebel leader decried by the Ayatollah voice of the Mail who told her not to like or trust him.
Again, this whole issue is filed with murkiness and half-truths. No wonder Farage is making hay.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1587185194787868677
It's 157 years since the US constitution banned chattel slavery - in which one person is the legal property of another - but left in place an exemption for convicted prisoners.
Throughout most of the US, slavery is still legal as punishment for a crime.
But on 8 November, voters in five states - Alabama, Louisiana, Oregon, Tennessee and Vermont - will decide whether to remove these exemptions from their state constitutions in an effort to ban slavery entirely.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63338784
I confess I have no idea what the situation is for prisoners in the UK. Also, is it worrying that the story felt it necessary to define what slavery is?
Best accommodation in the UK is Torridon Youth Hostel, I reckon.
Don't really get the thinking behind this one. Seems to me the PM not going but sending the king would be a low cost way of making a gesture, whilst showing leg to those who don't care about the issue.
Bluntly ,the immigration numbers have grown bigger since Brexit not smaller. The reason is not “ marauding criminal gangs “ ( more than 80% whose cases are heard are ultimately granted asylum) but a break down in relations with France and others ..
https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1587164254720999427?s=46&t=jj_4fS92tOBU7xJJcKHtpw
That’s not to say that the GOP can’t win the senate . The polls are very close and the US economic calendar throws up some key releases which could have an impact .
The Fed are expected to lift rates by another 0.75% on Wednesday , the chair Powell has been accused of trying to cause a recession by over the top hikes . Some have suggested he’s a Trump stooge and should have been fired when Biden took office.
At the end of the week theres the unemployment rate and other jobs data.
Italy is just a doormat. Serious migrants will go to Germany, Sweden or the UK.
It's in 2020 that the crossings took off.
I've also backed 50 republican seats at 6/1
He’s definitely going.
A national tragedy.
Like taking candy from a baby.
However, when you have stories such as this, it's clear the Ds have a major issue.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/democrats-ramp-spending-blue-districts-gop-sees-red-wave-forming-rcna54506
IIRC we have signed at least one new agreement with France on this issue since Brexit, so relations seem to be at least functioning, even if not warm.
Also, her suggestion that 80% being granted means they are genuine applicants seems a bit, shall we say, generous.
Apparently it's "project one's own prejudice and ignore the facts" on all sides. As you point out, though, this situation would be improved if we were actually had the facts.
The issue of "states that aren't big enough to be states" is pretty much a wash. At least the red ones are physically large enough to not look ridicuous.
So many mutually-contervailing theories, so few hard facts.
Given the rise of the AfD, Sweden Democrats and Brexit it is not as if Italy is alone in not wanting uncontrolled immigration either. As we are now on our 3rd PM this year and Italy only on its second we can hardly say we are more politically predictable
The United Arab Emirates is also pretty remarkable, with 4 of them amounting to around 8% of the population, and the other 4 taking up the remaining 91%.
I guess it shouldn't be a surprise, given the country I live in, but I still am.
NV looks more difficult for the Dems and I think GA will go to a run off so more obscene amounts of money likely to be spent by both sides upto the 6 December .
So the two "extra" Electoral College votes for each state which are not proportional made no difference at all (in fact Biden gained a net two as he won DC).
The point is there are a fair number of small states which the Dems win - both Vermont and Delaware have one House seat; Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Hawaii all have two House seats.
Thinking of saying no.
Thought you'd appreciate this.
But the point I’m making, for those who gather daily for the word of their Prophet, the Mail, has it all come too soon since
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11295263/Michael-Gove-branded-sadistic-harpooning-Liz-Trusss-45p-tax-cut-plan.html
The poor dears are confused. He’s untrustworthy sadist plotter, who done Truss in. But at least he’s on our side so let’s get behind him.
See?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2002/dec/11/scotland
@elonmusk
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4h
If I had a dollar for every time someone asked me if Trump is coming back on this platform, Twitter would be minting money!
George Mann 🫧⚒️🫧
@sgfmann
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23m
FT: Dream of UK battery champion dims as Britishvolt teeters towards collapse #TomorrowsPapersToday
https://twitter.com/sgfmann
A 1000 person 1 question google survey of Indiana would only cost me £110 but I need a business account with them.
Child: Who's the new President?
TA: We don't have a president we have a new Prime Minister.
Child: So what's his name?
TA: (Perhaps ahead of the game) Keir Starmer.
Child: No. The one who looks like Roddy from Flushed Away.
Me: Rishi Sunak. Puts up picture of Roddy and Rishi.
Child and TA: Ha ha. Yes he does. Useless.
Levelling up highly trumpeted. All a bit fishy.
That's her dream...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/31/egypt-cop27-showcase-charms-sharm-el-sheikh-protest-mall?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
Distinguished elderly gentleman accused of gay relationship, shockkkk!!!
Police say don't be silly, phewwwww!!!
Can you say Lou-is Mount-bat-ten?
I think it's important to figure out why we're putting in government money into businesses. Do we want to basically pay money to get jobs in this country? Or are we trying to kickstart real R&D projects? The former probably works better with a smaller number of more established businesses rather than startups. For the latter, though, I think you probably want to back quite a lot of relatively uncertain prospects without being too picky about the application process, and trust that the winners will more than make up for the duds. If you only back sure things then you're not doing anything the markets can't do equally well. Of course this is politically tricky because your opponents will make hay out of the bets that didn't pan out...
Here are the ten least-populated US states, each followed by the winner of the 2020 presidential election:
New Hampshire (Biden)
Maine (Biden)
Rhode Island (Biden)
Montana (Trump)
Delaware (Biden)
South Dakota (Trump)
North Dakota (Trump)
Alaska (Trump)
Vermont (Biden)
Wyoming (Trump)
So, 5-5. If you were to take the 12 least-populated, it would be 6-6. If you moved the cut point to the 25 least-populated, you would get a Republican advantage in the smaller states, but I would not call it overwhelming.
Not so incidentally, Democrats, by ignoring the problems of rural areas for so long, have in effect ceded those states to the Republicans. I am old enough to remember when South Dakota was represented by Democrat George McGovern, and the Democratic Senate Majority Leader was Mike Mansfield of Montana.
sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election
Note: Since Maine, like Nebraska, allocates one electoral vote to the winner of each Housedistrict, Trump won one electoral vote there.
No word from Bolsonaro.
But most allies have accepted the defeat with grace.
If.
Definitely the two issues that the Dems have attempted to do nothing on and had to be dragged there by the GOP.
Germany (30.0%)
France (19.1%)
Spain (10.4%)
Italy (8.4%)
Austria (6.1%)
• Read our story, by @PippaCrerar, @syalrajeev and @alethaadu, here: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/31/embattled-braverman-insists-she-is-not-at-fault-for-manston-crisis
#TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/richardpreston_/status/1587203610710007810/photo/1
. .
Definitely the two issues that the Dems have attempted to do nothing on and had to be dragged there by the GOP."
Those are good examples for my argument. In recent years, spending on transportation has been tilted toward public transit, that is, toward large cities. There's an extreme example in my own area, Link Light Rail.
One of the consequences of Obamacare was the loss of many rural hospitals. Some years ago, New York Times reporter Anemona Hartocollis described an academic study that documented that consequence. Look it up, if you don't believe me.
2020: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/18/21142650/rural-hospitals-closing-medicaid-expansion-states "According to Chartis, being in a Medicaid expansion state decreases by 62 percent the likelihood of a rural hospital closing. Conversely, being in a non-expansion state makes it more likely a rural hospital will close." So, it's the decisions of the Republican states that's the problem.
2020: https://healthcaremba.gwu.edu/blog/how-the-affordable-care-act-is-impacting-communities/ This report again notes the non-expansion of Medicaid and stresses the multitude of factors behind rural hospitals closing, but ends up concluding, "It is certainly too soon to objectively measure the ACA’s impact on community health, as the law has been fully implemented for only a short time. It would seem, however, that the ACA has extended health insurance to many previously uninsured Americans."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karni_Mata_Temple
"The temple is also a popular destination for tourists and pilgrims and is renowned, both in India and internationally, as the “Temple of Rats” due to the numerous mice known as kābā which are considered holy and treated with utmost care by the devotees."
. . .
The report outlines several pathways for rural hospitals to achieve financial sustainability, including additional federal support, flexible models of care, decreased regulatory burden, partnership arrangements and state Medicaid expansion. In addition, AHA continues to urge Congress to extend the Medicare-dependent Hospital and enhanced Low-volume Adjustment programs, which are set to expire this month. The programs provide vital support for geographically isolated rural hospitals with low patient volumes."
source: https://www.aha.org/news/headline/2022-09-08-aha-report-rural-hospital-closures-threaten-patient-access-care