eek said:

TOPPING said:

.

MaxPB said:

bondegezou said:

MaxPB said:

Taz said:

MaxPB said:

The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.

Alternatively we can accept people will come here and set up processing centres in France to process their applications. Give passage to those approved and those who,don’t, if they come over by other means, just return them.

We have legal routes of migration. If they don't qualify then it's hard no. We need to end the pull factor and make the trip completely uneconomic. A huge crackdown on illegal work, a deal with France to end the boat crossings and ensuring legitimate migrants are given access to legal routes of migration. The default approach should be deportation for all illegal immigrants with no right of appeal and barring that person from ever being able to legally migrate to the UK. Make the cost of illegal immigration extremely high.

Punishments being made stronger don't work if people don't think they'll be caught.

So disabuse them of that notion. Have the crackdown, shut down all of the carwashes and deport them all, shutdown all of the restaurants hiring illegal workers and deport them all, huge fines for all of the firms with dodgy site labourers being paid cash. Have a series of no warning inspections and don't give the businesses doing the dirt a way out with paying fines, just shut them down, no right of appeal, directors barred from opening a business for 20 years.

Very good ideas.

Then post a policeman at the dwelling of everyone on any dangerous watchlist (terrorism, domestic abuse, you name it) and have that policeman accompany that person everywhere they go.

Then put a policeman in every supermarket in the country to deter shoplifters and, should shoplifting occur, the culprit should be given five years imprisonment.

A few more measures like that should make a serious indent into our crime stats.

But wait. It's not going to happen. None of it. Including your measures to deter/prevent illegal immigration.

So why don't we instead think about what is workable and doable. Not what might be workable but is as we have seen, transparently obviously not doable.

Max’s idea is workable - it’s small enough that the impact isn’t that great.

As for whether it works or not - Max missed one important factor. The illegal immigrant who reports the company isn’t treated as an illegal immigrant if he reports the case. Instead reporting the company employing him / her triggers a reward of some form or other rather than instant deportation.

Currently the incentive of all parties who are illegal or employ illegal workers is to keep quiet about it. The fix we need is to utterly change the incentive for one of the parties involved.

And that means we need to incentivize illegal immigrants to report illegal employers to the extent that employers have major incentives to never employ an illegal worker

DougSeal said:

Casino_Royale said:

eek said:

Casino_Royale said:

Dura_Ace said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.

That's the deal that needs to be struck.

I don't think there is any amount of money that would make that politically acceptable to France - which is not a backwards shithole like Rwanda that can be bought off.

So the price would have to be a political prize greather than just large amounts of money. Fucked if I know what that is.

Tow backs that did not breach French territorual waters but without French consent would 100% work as a deterrent but tories lack the resolve to do it.

Border Force staff would refuse to do the tow backs.

Because no-one wishes to put people into jeopardy which is what you are doing if you tow a boat and leave it outside land

The point is that there are zero easy options here as you demonstrated with your attack on my comment regarding setting up application centers closer to the places where valid immigrants are coming from

"Attack on your comment" = disagreeing with you.

Australia has no such issues. However, the metastasising tumour that is Wokery has now taken a firm hold amongst all branches of our public sector and quango institutions so they'd simply refuse to do it.

A clear out and reset might work.

Refusing to kill people or break the law now falls inside the boundaries of this nebulous and undefined thing called “wokery”.

StillWaters said:

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

I see Lord Dannatt threatens a military coup.

https://twitter.com/MetroUK/status/1586832338239033350?t=SC3l3ufn3KFZt_B0iA2x8A&s=09

What an idiot.

The key sentence being “warning that the voters would punish such slackness [on security matters]”…

The Metro has utterly misreported him in the headline. I’m surprised you fell for it

TOPPING said:

Anabobazina said:

TOPPING said:

Nigelb said:

IMPORTANT: Bolsonaro’s most powerful ally in congress, equivalent to House Speaker in US, says “the will of the majority expressed at the ballot box should never be contested.” Clear message to Bolsonaro and a plea for a smooth transition to Lula
https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1586865535043735552

We were talking about twitter this morning and a possible revenue model.

I love it when people put "IMPORTANT" at the beginning of a tweet. Says who the fuck. Perhaps an extra fiver for having the temerity to do that.

I'd support a similar measure, right here on PB, for anyone who prefaces a post:

BREAKING


And, while we are at it, a £10 fine for any of the below. Easy money for OGH...

• Doing some heavy lifting
• Colour me …
• IANAE/IANAL
• Feature, not a bug
• Ad hom
• This
• It’s a view
• North of [to mean more than]
• As I’ve said passim
• One of those irregular verbs
• Late of this parish
• Nail. Head.
• Unspoofable

This.

Casino_Royale said:

I'm sitting in my local pub right now (last day of paternity leave) and the five locals at the bar are discussing the boats across the channel *right this minute* and spitting teeth about it.

This is cutting through. Hugely.

wooliedyed said:

Driver said:

Anabobazina said:

TOPPING said:

Nigelb said:

IMPORTANT: Bolsonaro’s most powerful ally in congress, equivalent to House Speaker in US, says “the will of the majority expressed at the ballot box should never be contested.” Clear message to Bolsonaro and a plea for a smooth transition to Lula
https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1586865535043735552

We were talking about twitter this morning and a possible revenue model.

I love it when people put "IMPORTANT" at the beginning of a tweet. Says who the fuck. Perhaps an extra fiver for having the temerity to do that.

I'd support a similar measure, right here on PB, for anyone who prefaces a post:

BREAKING


And, while we are at it, a £10 fine for any of the below. Easy money for OGH...

• Doing some heavy lifting
• Colour me …
• IANAE/IANAL
• Feature, not a bug
• Ad hom
• This
• It’s a view
• North of [to mean more than]
• As I’ve said passim
• One of those irregular verbs
• Late of this parish
• Nail. Head.
• Unspoofable

£50 for anyone misspelling a name to make a political attack.

Rashid Sanook has to be $100?

RochdalePioneers said:

Andy_JS said:

Farage is going to be prime minister pretty soon unless these border problems are resolved.

That could be fun.
PMF: Right, I'm in charge. Tow the boats back
Navy: We don't have the ability to do so

Anabobazina said:

eek said:

TOPPING said:

.

MaxPB said:

bondegezou said:

MaxPB said:

Taz said:

MaxPB said:

The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.

Alternatively we can accept people will come here and set up processing centres in France to process their applications. Give passage to those approved and those who,don’t, if they come over by other means, just return them.

We have legal routes of migration. If they don't qualify then it's hard no. We need to end the pull factor and make the trip completely uneconomic. A huge crackdown on illegal work, a deal with France to end the boat crossings and ensuring legitimate migrants are given access to legal routes of migration. The default approach should be deportation for all illegal immigrants with no right of appeal and barring that person from ever being able to legally migrate to the UK. Make the cost of illegal immigration extremely high.

Punishments being made stronger don't work if people don't think they'll be caught.

So disabuse them of that notion. Have the crackdown, shut down all of the carwashes and deport them all, shutdown all of the restaurants hiring illegal workers and deport them all, huge fines for all of the firms with dodgy site labourers being paid cash. Have a series of no warning inspections and don't give the businesses doing the dirt a way out with paying fines, just shut them down, no right of appeal, directors barred from opening a business for 20 years.

Very good ideas.

Then post a policeman at the dwelling of everyone on any dangerous watchlist (terrorism, domestic abuse, you name it) and have that policeman accompany that person everywhere they go.

Then put a policeman in every supermarket in the country to deter shoplifters and, should shoplifting occur, the culprit should be given five years imprisonment.

A few more measures like that should make a serious indent into our crime stats.

But wait. It's not going to happen. None of it. Including your measures to deter/prevent illegal immigration.

So why don't we instead think about what is workable and doable. Not what might be workable but is as we have seen, transparently obviously not doable.

Max’s idea is workable - it’s small enough that the impact isn’t that great.

As for whether it works or not - Max missed one important factor. The illegal immigrant who reports the company isn’t treated as an illegal immigrant if he reports the case. Instead reporting the company employing him / her triggers a reward of some form or other rather than instant deportation.

Currently the incentive of all parties who are illegal or employ illegal workers is to keep quiet about it. The fix we need is to utterly change the incentive for one of the parties involved.

And that means we need to incentivize illegal immigrants to report illegal employers to the extent that employers have major incentives to never employ an illegal worker

Why would he trade employment for a one-off reward?

Slackbladder said:

Nigelb said:

Do you think the prime minister Rishi Sunak should or should not attend the COP27 climate change conference in Egypt in November?

Definitely should: 36%
Probably should: 25%
Probably should not: 11%
Definitely should not: 9%
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1587046726921224192

Ask the same question about attending the local village fete. We probably want our politicians to do everything.

TOPPING said:

Andy_JS said:

Casino_Royale said:

Dura_Ace said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.

That's the deal that needs to be struck.

I don't think there is any amount of money that would make that politically acceptable to France - which is not a backwards shithole like Rwanda that can be bought off.

So the price would have to be a political prize greather than just large amounts of money. Fucked if I know what that is.

Tow backs that did not breach French territorual waters but without French consent would 100% work as a deterrent but tories lack the resolve to do it.

Border Force staff would refuse to do the tow backs.

What's the point of a border force that doesn't defend the borders of the country? That's literally their job.

That's not their job at all. Their job is to follow the orders of the government.

What member of the government would implement tow back as a policy.

Is where you should be starting from.

RochdalePioneers said:

Casino_Royale said:

I'm sitting in my local pub right now (last day of paternity leave) and the five locals at the bar are discussing the boats across the channel *right this minute* and spitting teeth about it.

This is cutting through. Hugely.

Can I ask what solutions they are imagining...? Also I think it rather depends where in the country you are and the demographic of the voter as to whether this cuts through or not. It *really* upsets some people. Much less so other people.

MoonRabbit said:

Slackbladder said:

Nigelb said:

Do you think the prime minister Rishi Sunak should or should not attend the COP27 climate change conference in Egypt in November?

Definitely should: 36%
Probably should: 25%
Probably should not: 11%
Definitely should not: 9%
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1587046726921224192

Ask the same question about attending the local village fete. We probably want our politicians to do everything.

Or it could be, despite right wing media being very stridently opposed to Net Zero, no matter how you phrase the polling question vast majority of Tory voters support Net Zero, so Sunak has arsed this one up.

Unforced Error from Captain Unforced Error!

Dura_Ace said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Andy_JS said:

Farage is going to be prime minister pretty soon unless these border problems are resolved.

That could be fun.
PMF: Right, I'm in charge. Tow the boats back
Navy: We don't have the ability to do so

Why don't they have the ability?

Here's how the RAN did it.

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1435759/asylum-seekers-claim-australian-navy-blew-their-boat

The added complication for the channel is that the lifeboat would have to be towed west so that it can be cast off in international waters and only has enough fuel to get to France and nowhere else.

turbotubbs said:

Nigelb said:

Do you think the prime minister Rishi Sunak should or should not attend the COP27 climate change conference in Egypt in November?

Definitely should: 36%
Probably should: 25%
Probably should not: 11%
Definitely should not: 9%
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1587046726921224192

How about an option for doing it via Zoom like sensible people who really care about the planet?

RochdalePioneers said:

TOPPING said:

Andy_JS said:

Casino_Royale said:

Dura_Ace said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.

That's the deal that needs to be struck.

I don't think there is any amount of money that would make that politically acceptable to France - which is not a backwards shithole like Rwanda that can be bought off.

So the price would have to be a political prize greather than just large amounts of money. Fucked if I know what that is.

Tow backs that did not breach French territorual waters but without French consent would 100% work as a deterrent but tories lack the resolve to do it.

Border Force staff would refuse to do the tow backs.

What's the point of a border force that doesn't defend the borders of the country? That's literally their job.

That's not their job at all. Their job is to follow the orders of the government.

What member of the government would implement tow back as a policy.

Is where you should be starting from.

The Navy have already said no. They are neither trained nor equipped for such an operation to be successful.

eek said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

glw said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Absobloodylutely. Have I not made this point repeatedly? Kill the black economy and you remove the pull - the ability to disappear and work cash in hand.

Whenever anyone proposes such a thing we nearly always get pushback due to it infringing civil liberties. No party wants ID cards, or more KYC regulations, or police raids, or more intrusive HMRC, or local government keeping track of home occupation. Which are the sort of things you would have to do at a minimum to get a hold on things.

The solution is ID cards.

I hate it to. But at some point, Nixon has to go to China, and a Tory PM must announce a Belgian-style registration system.

Technically the issue is just right to work checks being done correctly and a change in incentives so not all the parties involved in employing illegal workers are incentivized to keep things secret.

Now Id cards would make those checks slightly easier but you then create 2 issues - the need for an id card in the first place and a second act to make carrying it a legal requirement

ping said:

Email from TravelZoo flogging 3 hour flights to see the northern lights;

https://www.omegabreaks.com/itineraries/9031-Special Offer Northern Lights Flights 2022

As a society, we’re really not taking climate change seriously, are we?

Casino_Royale said:

I'm sitting in my local pub right now (last day of paternity leave) and the five locals at the bar are discussing the boats across the channel *right this minute* and spitting teeth about it.

This is cutting through. Hugely.

eek said:

DougSeal said:

Casino_Royale said:

eek said:

Casino_Royale said:

Dura_Ace said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.

That's the deal that needs to be struck.

I don't think there is any amount of money that would make that politically acceptable to France - which is not a backwards shithole like Rwanda that can be bought off.

So the price would have to be a political prize greather than just large amounts of money. Fucked if I know what that is.

Tow backs that did not breach French territorual waters but without French consent would 100% work as a deterrent but tories lack the resolve to do it.

Border Force staff would refuse to do the tow backs.

Because no-one wishes to put people into jeopardy which is what you are doing if you tow a boat and leave it outside land

The point is that there are zero easy options here as you demonstrated with your attack on my comment regarding setting up application centers closer to the places where valid immigrants are coming from

"Attack on your comment" = disagreeing with you.

Australia has no such issues. However, the metastasising tumour that is Wokery has now taken a firm hold amongst all branches of our public sector and quango institutions so they'd simply refuse to do it.

A clear out and reset might work.

Refusing to kill people or break the law now falls inside the boundaries of this nebulous and undefined thing called “wokery”.

Only in the world of @Casino_Royale who seems to be careful to only comment on part of my arguments - while missing whole parts of my argument.

He is the only person who seems of think I was happy to open our ports and airports when the reality was you get people to apply locally to remove the incentive to travel to Calais

Casino_Royale said:

Dura_Ace said:

Casino_Royale said:

Dura_Ace said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.

That's the deal that needs to be struck.

I don't think there is any amount of money that would make that politically acceptable to France - which is not a backwards shithole like Rwanda that can be bought off.

So the price would have to be a political prize greather than just large amounts of money. Fucked if I know what that is.

Tow backs that did not breach French territorual waters but without French consent would 100% work as a deterrent but tories lack the resolve to do it.

Border Force staff would refuse to do the tow backs.

RN wouldn't. Give them the order and they'll do it. The Australian and Greek navies did.

If you were still in the RN would you follow such an order?

Scott_xP said:

🔵 Suella Braverman still has the "full confidence" of Rishi Sunak in the wake of revelations around her use of emails, Downing Street said this lunchtime.

Read the latest on our politics live blog ⬇️
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/31/rishi-sunak-cop27-news-suella-braverman-security-breach-latest/ https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1587071979911368704/photo/1

Driver said:

Anabobazina said:

TOPPING said:

Nigelb said:

IMPORTANT: Bolsonaro’s most powerful ally in congress, equivalent to House Speaker in US, says “the will of the majority expressed at the ballot box should never be contested.” Clear message to Bolsonaro and a plea for a smooth transition to Lula
https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1586865535043735552

We were talking about twitter this morning and a possible revenue model.

I love it when people put "IMPORTANT" at the beginning of a tweet. Says who the fuck. Perhaps an extra fiver for having the temerity to do that.

I'd support a similar measure, right here on PB, for anyone who prefaces a post:

BREAKING


And, while we are at it, a £10 fine for any of the below. Easy money for OGH...

• Doing some heavy lifting
• Colour me …
• IANAE/IANAL
• Feature, not a bug
• Ad hom
• This
• It’s a view
• North of [to mean more than]
• As I’ve said passim
• One of those irregular verbs
• Late of this parish
• Nail. Head.
• Unspoofable

£50 for anyone misspelling a name to make a political attack.

JosiasJessop said:

mwadams said:

TOPPING said:

Anabobazina said:

TOPPING said:

Nigelb said:

IMPORTANT: Bolsonaro’s most powerful ally in congress, equivalent to House Speaker in US, says “the will of the majority expressed at the ballot box should never be contested.” Clear message to Bolsonaro and a plea for a smooth transition to Lula
https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1586865535043735552

We were talking about twitter this morning and a possible revenue model.

I love it when people put "IMPORTANT" at the beginning of a tweet. Says who the fuck. Perhaps an extra fiver for having the temerity to do that.

I'd support a similar measure, right here on PB, for anyone who prefaces a post:

BREAKING


And, while we are at it, a £10 fine for any of the below. Easy money for OGH...

• Doing some heavy lifting
• Colour me …
• IANAE/IANAL
• Feature, not a bug
• Ad hom
• This
• It’s a view
• North of [to mean more than]
• As I’ve said passim
• One of those irregular verbs
• Late of this parish
• Nail. Head.
• Unspoofable

This.

Even now, the finest minds on PB are trying to construct a single, semi-coherent post that contains *all* of those phrases.

Before realising that @Anabobazina has *already done it*.

We should add anyone complaining about language and grammar onto the list. I fear it may well bankrupt @Anabobazina ...

MoonRabbit said:

Driver said:

MoonRabbit said:

Slackbladder said:

Nigelb said:

Do you think the prime minister Rishi Sunak should or should not attend the COP27 climate change conference in Egypt in November?

Definitely should: 36%
Probably should: 25%
Probably should not: 11%
Definitely should not: 9%
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1587046726921224192

Ask the same question about attending the local village fete. We probably want our politicians to do everything.

Or it could be, despite right wing media being very stridently opposed to Net Zero, no matter how you phrase the polling question vast majority of Tory voters support Net Zero, so Sunak has arsed this one up.

Unforced Error from Captain Unforced Error!

This is something that would be described as an unforced error by his haters no matter what he did.

You don’t regard no to COP becoming yes to COP as a u-turn?

Dura_Ace said:

Casino_Royale said:

I'm sitting in my local pub right now (last day of paternity leave) and the five locals at the bar are discussing the boats across the channel *right this minute* and spitting teeth about it.

This is cutting through. Hugely.

I took the Ukrainians to Waitrose for baking supplies this morning (every day is the Great Ukrainian Bake Off in our house). Two old yentas at the checkout were going on about that woman in Kent who found an informal immigrant in her front room demanding to be taken to Manchester. They were fucking furious about the situation.

RochdalePioneers said:

Dura_Ace said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Andy_JS said:

Farage is going to be prime minister pretty soon unless these border problems are resolved.

That could be fun.
PMF: Right, I'm in charge. Tow the boats back
Navy: We don't have the ability to do so

Why don't they have the ability?

Here's how the RAN did it.

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1435759/asylum-seekers-claim-australian-navy-blew-their-boat

The added complication for the channel is that the lifeboat would have to be towed west so that it can be cast off in international waters and only has enough fuel to get to France and nowhere else.

I don't know why they don't, but that was their response earlier when pressed about doing so. You're the naval man not I, so is it the lack of the right types of boats? Enough crew?

They won't refuse an order, so this sounds like the admiralty having to explain to the politicians - probably with crayons - why "just tow them back" won't work.

ping said:

Email from TravelZoo flogging 3 hour flights to see the northern lights;

https://www.omegabreaks.com/itineraries/9031-Special Offer Northern Lights Flights 2022

As a society, we’re really not taking climate change seriously, are we?

Casino_Royale said:

I'm sitting in my local pub right now (last day of paternity leave) and the five locals at the bar are discussing the boats across the channel *right this minute* and spitting teeth about it.

This is cutting through. Hugely.

Dura_Ace said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Dura_Ace said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Andy_JS said:

Farage is going to be prime minister pretty soon unless these border problems are resolved.

That could be fun.
PMF: Right, I'm in charge. Tow the boats back
Navy: We don't have the ability to do so

Why don't they have the ability?

Here's how the RAN did it.

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1435759/asylum-seekers-claim-australian-navy-blew-their-boat

The added complication for the channel is that the lifeboat would have to be towed west so that it can be cast off in international waters and only has enough fuel to get to France and nowhere else.

I don't know why they don't, but that was their response earlier when pressed about doing so. You're the naval man not I, so is it the lack of the right types of boats? Enough crew?

They won't refuse an order, so this sounds like the admiralty having to explain to the politicians - probably with crayons - why "just tow them back" won't work.

It depends exactly what they were asked to do. A straightforward tow back of the refugee boat would probably kill quite a few people and be a violation of French terroritorial integrity - so that's probably a straightforward no.

However, a RAN style lifeboat tow back from international waters would be technically legal, technically possible and only very dangerous but politically inciendary.

TOPPING said:

ping said:

Email from TravelZoo flogging 3 hour flights to see the northern lights;

https://www.omegabreaks.com/itineraries/9031-Special Offer Northern Lights Flights 2022

As a society, we’re really not taking climate change seriously, are we?

Indeed we are not which is strange, isn't it. Every one of us now is aware of the potential dangers of climate change, of the various activities which have been identified as contributing to it and yet no one or precious few are willing to do anything about it.

That tells me that they either don't care, don't believe, or believe that it won't be as bad as all that.

The broad masses are certainly not agreeing with eg XR and their ilk.

Driver said:

MoonRabbit said:

Driver said:

MoonRabbit said:

Slackbladder said:

Nigelb said:

Do you think the prime minister Rishi Sunak should or should not attend the COP27 climate change conference in Egypt in November?

Definitely should: 36%
Probably should: 25%
Probably should not: 11%
Definitely should not: 9%
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1587046726921224192

Ask the same question about attending the local village fete. We probably want our politicians to do everything.

Or it could be, despite right wing media being very stridently opposed to Net Zero, no matter how you phrase the polling question vast majority of Tory voters support Net Zero, so Sunak has arsed this one up.

Unforced Error from Captain Unforced Error!

This is something that would be described as an unforced error by his haters no matter what he did.

You don’t regard no to COP becoming yes to COP as a u-turn?

Not what I said. Thought I haven't seen anything beyond "he can't go" "changing" to "he'd like to go but it might not be possible".

What I said is: if he'd said from the outset he was going, you'd have called that an unforced error because he should have stayed home dealing with more urgent domestic matters.

RochdalePioneers said:

Dura_Ace said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Dura_Ace said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Andy_JS said:

Farage is going to be prime minister pretty soon unless these border problems are resolved.

That could be fun.
PMF: Right, I'm in charge. Tow the boats back
Navy: We don't have the ability to do so

Why don't they have the ability?

Here's how the RAN did it.

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1435759/asylum-seekers-claim-australian-navy-blew-their-boat

The added complication for the channel is that the lifeboat would have to be towed west so that it can be cast off in international waters and only has enough fuel to get to France and nowhere else.

I don't know why they don't, but that was their response earlier when pressed about doing so. You're the naval man not I, so is it the lack of the right types of boats? Enough crew?

They won't refuse an order, so this sounds like the admiralty having to explain to the politicians - probably with crayons - why "just tow them back" won't work.

It depends exactly what they were asked to do. A straightforward tow back of the refugee boat would probably kill quite a few people and be a violation of French terroritorial integrity - so that's probably a straightforward no.

However, a RAN style lifeboat tow back from international waters would be technically legal, technically possible and only very dangerous but politically inciendary.

Which is "no". The politicians are dumb and ignorant. "Why can't the military just do x". The men and women with the higher up ranks then have to patently explain in detail what x means in terms of otherwise not considered y and z. At which point the request goes no further.

If it was feasible for the navy to do tow back we would have been doing it for years. I will leave it to you to consider the practical and political factors which may shape why it isn't feasible...

MoonRabbit said:

Driver said:

MoonRabbit said:

Driver said:

MoonRabbit said:

Slackbladder said:

Nigelb said:

Do you think the prime minister Rishi Sunak should or should not attend the COP27 climate change conference in Egypt in November?

Definitely should: 36%
Probably should: 25%
Probably should not: 11%
Definitely should not: 9%
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1587046726921224192

Ask the same question about attending the local village fete. We probably want our politicians to do everything.

Or it could be, despite right wing media being very stridently opposed to Net Zero, no matter how you phrase the polling question vast majority of Tory voters support Net Zero, so Sunak has arsed this one up.

Unforced Error from Captain Unforced Error!

This is something that would be described as an unforced error by his haters no matter what he did.

You don’t regard no to COP becoming yes to COP as a u-turn?

Not what I said. Thought I haven't seen anything beyond "he can't go" "changing" to "he'd like to go but it might not be possible".

What I said is: if he'd said from the outset he was going, you'd have called that an unforced error because he should have stayed home dealing with more urgent domestic matters.

Nope. myself and about 80% of people took it as obvious he’d pop in, would not have batted an eye lid if he done so, especially after the hard work and national pride put into recent UK COP.

It only become a story to criticise him with when he made it one, by pandering to the vocal right wing minority who loath Net Zero policy.

That those so vocal in their loathing of Net Zero are in such minority even on the right, and weak and wobbly Sunak arsed up pandering to them, is the only take out from this U Turn story.

RochdalePioneers said:

Casino_Royale said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Casino_Royale said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Scott_xP said:

There is a full scale political crisis for the home secretary Suella Braverman and new PM Rishi Sunak in the failure to prevent the Manston migrant processing centre being totally overwhelmed by asylum seekers. Here are the important facts. 1/20
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1587022185633284096

As there is a very specific and acute Albanian element to this debacle, has the Home Office even reached out to the Albanian government? We could announce a hard line "if you are Albanian we deport you straight back to Tirana" and worry about the legalities later. To do that, the Albanian authorities need to agree to receive their people back.

Have we asked? Or is co-operating with the forrin beneath our newly sovrin Brexity status?

I agree, this is the solution.

British people are actually quite generous and accommodating - just look at the response to refugees from Hong Kong and Ukraine - but they want control. They hate criminality, queue jumping and people taking the piss and third sector organisations making excuses for it and saying the only issue is we don't make it easier for them. Intergovernmental arrangements are needed with Albania and, quite frankly, we need to make some choices about Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan too - the other big sources of boat passengers.

It really is a totally bubbled conversation and it needs an international solution.

The simple reality which "no forrin" Tory Brexiteers deny is that there is No Legal Route to claim asylum from a stack of countries. Including Afghanistan which is appalling considering what we did in that country and the way we just abandoned them.

So we create the boat problem by lying to morons that the country is full (it isn't) and that we take lots of refugees (we don't). Even where we clearly need international co-operation they don't. Because their version of Brexit is that we make the rules and should just be allowed to do what we want and tell the forrin what is happening.

You would imagine that Albania would want to bring so many of its own people home. It is no longer the hermit state of old, and when so many people leave you can't regenerate as so many other poor eastern European countries have done. So a deal could be done, surely.

Just a gentle tip: I like some of your posts but every time you put "no forrin" I stop reading.

Why? That is the mentality of the wazzocks driving this policy. They do not want foreigners here. Thats it. They brought in a points-based migration system and run it so that no matter how desperate the labour shortages they don't fill them. They run a refugee system that allows zero applications then blame the people coming in boats.

When the jingoistic wing of Tory members want to grow up, I will be able to spell the word properly. Until then its calling out their baseless bigotry.

Anabobazina said:

wooliedyed said:

A thought on the polls and the 'narrative'. Opinium has given some column inches on 'comeback' from the usual suspects, but tonights Redfield might be interesting. Thursday saw almost no movement compared to the others and indeed Redfield are now the upper end outlier, more than even People Polling who have been consistently upper end. So, if the general bounce is ongoing we might see a double effect movement tonight reinforcing the Sun etc 'comeback kid' stuff. Conversely, another high 20s to 30 lead and its 'comeback stalls, sack Suella!'
The Thursdsy poll had over a 20 point lead for Labour with over 65s, higher than the 50 to 65 lead which stuck out like a sore thumb........ be interesting to see what turns out
Generally this week should show us if we are amidst a bounce or one has occured and ceased/peaked

Subsamples are meaningless – you should know this by now.

If you want to know more about it, as Stuart Dickson about his 'time in the wilderness'.

Casino_Royale said:

Dura_Ace said:

Casino_Royale said:

I'm sitting in my local pub right now (last day of paternity leave) and the five locals at the bar are discussing the boats across the channel *right this minute* and spitting teeth about it.

This is cutting through. Hugely.

I took the Ukrainians to Waitrose for baking supplies this morning (every day is the Great Ukrainian Bake Off in our house). Two old yentas at the checkout were going on about that woman in Kent who found an informal immigrant in her front room demanding to be taken to Manchester. They were fucking furious about the situation.

Somehow I struggle to imagine you patiently doing bake off with your houseguests everyday.

MoonRabbit said:

wooliedyed said:

A thought on the polls and the 'narrative'. Opinium has given some column inches on 'comeback' from the usual suspects, but tonights Redfield might be interesting. Thursday saw almost no movement compared to the others and indeed Redfield are now the upper end outlier, more than even People Polling who have been consistently upper end. So, if the general bounce is ongoing we might see a double effect movement tonight reinforcing the Sun etc 'comeback kid' stuff. Conversely, another high 20s to 30 lead and its 'comeback stalls, sack Suella!'
The Thursdsy poll had over a 20 point lead for Labour with over 65s, higher than the 50 to 65 lead which stuck out like a sore thumb........ be interesting to see what turns out
Generally this week should show us if we are amidst a bounce or one has occured and ceased/peaked

We do say on PB big political events take two weeks or more before they clearly register in polls - so we should still be watching, asking right questions, and reserving judgement as yet, like punters do with watched horses in horse racing.

The right questions are not the size of lead, there’s too much LLG in size of lead, it’s the Tory share recovery to watch for. Before the Starmergasm, Truss had some consistent 35s from Techne and a 34 from Opinium. To what extent does Sunak Honeymoon raise the Tory polling average is still the measure to be watching.

The trouble with using Opinium as part of comeback narrative is the swingback distorts the average and impression - what they actually got from voters was likely something around 25 for Tory share before swingback, that sort of return has to be higher in the next Opinium for a real Honeymoon bounce, ditto all the other firms.

So when new polls come this week, ignore the lead, the “this is the Tory score last time, this is it this time” is the only thing to measure in this CRUCIAL couple of months in the history of the Tory Party.

eek said:

Casino_Royale said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Casino_Royale said:

I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.

If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.

Its not all Macron. We could start by honouring our international obligations and reopen legal routes for people to apply for asylum from all the countries where we have removed it. Resource up the system properly. Rejoin the international community in collectively managing refugees.

In short, the right could grow up. Don't hold your breath.

Oh God, why do we always come back here.

You will never get a hearing for "safe and legal routes" - ever - until you get control of the border. Because otherwise all people will hear is: I want to make it even easier to come here for anyone who wants to come.

Why is this so difficult to understand?

Until we offer a safe and legal route - people will continue to come the illegal way. Only when we have a suitable safe and legal method of applying for residency will the problem be solved.

Heck the fact a lot of the migrants happen to be Albanians who end up working on county lines and similar illegal schemes tells you that no approach is going to 100% work as many peoples desire is to disappear as soon as they arrive in the country. Not even fining employers £x0,000 will solve that side of the issue

wooliedyed said:

malcolmg said:

Anabobazina said:

wooliedyed said:

Anabobazina said:

wooliedyed said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

StuartDickson said:

Andy_JS said:

StuartDickson said:

NOM 2.3
Lab Maj 2.4
Con Maj 5.6

Awful figures for Labour when they have a 25 point lead in the polls.

Agreed. Punters are clearly sceptical about Starmer.

I'm not a Labour supporter but, if I were, I'd note that the mismatch between polling and betting indicates that, while punters may be sceptical about Starmer, voters aren't. And I'd rather it was that way around.

More realistically, it indicates that punters (probably correctly) believe Sunak is a more credible opponent to Starmer than Truss was, and the 25% lead (more than half of which opened up rather quickly in recent weeks due to consistently appalling news for the Conservatives) is likely to narrow. That isn't a judgment on Starmer as such.

Actually voters are. Votes in local by elections taken in the round do not support the 25 point lead poll respondees give

How is your certain call from last night that Bolsonaro will be re-elected looking?

#theoracleofnorfolk

I was slightly off, he didnt. My failed prediction fortunately has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the facts that data provide however

You weren't 'slightly off', you were completely wrong, predicting the outcome opposite to the actual outcome. Which would have been fine (it happens to us all) except that you predicted it with the certainty of someone forecasting the sun will rise tomorrow.

He shagged one sheep, give him a break

One? I shag one before breakfast, Malcolm, by evening i've desecrated the flock

StillWaters said:

wooliedyed said:

malcolmg said:

Anabobazina said:

wooliedyed said:

Anabobazina said:

wooliedyed said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

StuartDickson said:

Andy_JS said:

StuartDickson said:

NOM 2.3
Lab Maj 2.4
Con Maj 5.6

Awful figures for Labour when they have a 25 point lead in the polls.

Agreed. Punters are clearly sceptical about Starmer.

I'm not a Labour supporter but, if I were, I'd note that the mismatch between polling and betting indicates that, while punters may be sceptical about Starmer, voters aren't. And I'd rather it was that way around.

More realistically, it indicates that punters (probably correctly) believe Sunak is a more credible opponent to Starmer than Truss was, and the 25% lead (more than half of which opened up rather quickly in recent weeks due to consistently appalling news for the Conservatives) is likely to narrow. That isn't a judgment on Starmer as such.

Actually voters are. Votes in local by elections taken in the round do not support the 25 point lead poll respondees give

How is your certain call from last night that Bolsonaro will be re-elected looking?

#theoracleofnorfolk

I was slightly off, he didnt. My failed prediction fortunately has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the facts that data provide however

You weren't 'slightly off', you were completely wrong, predicting the outcome opposite to the actual outcome. Which would have been fine (it happens to us all) except that you predicted it with the certainty of someone forecasting the sun will rise tomorrow.

He shagged one sheep, give him a break

One? I shag one before breakfast, Malcolm, by evening i've desecrated the flock

I’m not going to make a filthy joke based on your user name…

state_go_away said:

Scott_xP said:

🚨 Hearing preparation is now under way for Rishi Sunak to attend COP27
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1587075621452189697

just as Gretta pulls out! Honestly I dont care whether he goes or not (as does most of the silent majority) but FGS show some backbone and make a decision and stick to it

has the full confidence of the Prime Minister

Casino_Royale said:

DougSeal said:

Casino_Royale said:

eek said:

Casino_Royale said:

Dura_Ace said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.

That's the deal that needs to be struck.

I don't think there is any amount of money that would make that politically acceptable to France - which is not a backwards shithole like Rwanda that can be bought off.

So the price would have to be a political prize greather than just large amounts of money. Fucked if I know what that is.

Tow backs that did not breach French territorual waters but without French consent would 100% work as a deterrent but tories lack the resolve to do it.

Border Force staff would refuse to do the tow backs.

Because no-one wishes to put people into jeopardy which is what you are doing if you tow a boat and leave it outside land

The point is that there are zero easy options here as you demonstrated with your attack on my comment regarding setting up application centers closer to the places where valid immigrants are coming from

"Attack on your comment" = disagreeing with you.

Australia has no such issues. However, the metastasising tumour that is Wokery has now taken a firm hold amongst all branches of our public sector and quango institutions so they'd simply refuse to do it.

A clear out and reset might work.

Refusing to kill people or break the law now falls inside the boundaries of this nebulous and undefined thing called “wokery”.

Saying, "what does Wokery mean?" is simply Libtard code for disagreeing such a thing exists, because they lack the self-awareness to see that anyone could possibly or reasonably disagree with them.