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Will the Truss link be as damaging to the CON brand as Corbyn was to LAB? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 3 in General
imageWill the Truss link be as damaging to the CON brand as Corbyn was to LAB? – politicalbetting.com

The sure way of knowing that the Tories are in serious trouble is when they they seek to associate Starmer with his predecessor Corbyn. Even Sunak got into the act at his first PMQs.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,321
    edited October 30
    First like Balrog's performance at this Brazilian election (I assume)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,321
    Balrog said:

    Balrog said:

    Eked out a shitty £38.07 all green on Lula from dumb trading.

    Pays for a meal, I guess.

    Currently have £1,900 staked on Lula... biggest bet I've made, by about double.

    Woah. What you going to cream from that?
    Not enough!

    +£376

    (cash out £269)
    I make 1006 if I win. Or looks like about 900 locked in if I put some money on Bolsenaro
    A win worthy of the name of the site!
    I can't remember who it was that recommended the bet about ten days ago. I know pretty much nothing about Brazil.
    FPT

    Surely the PB experience
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,616
    QTWTAIY
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,482
    edited October 30
    The answer is no and yes.

    No, because she simply hasn't had time to bed in opinion like Corbyn had over years, and her successor can quite quickly repudiate everything she stood for. In fact, that process started before she was even gone.

    Yes, because her short tenure caused such a commotion so swiftly and meaningfully that no one could ignore it, not even her party, and has likely crystallised opinion about them for years to come as it revealed the absolute mess we are in. Truss need not even be mentioned, but reference to what her time led to, and why, will still hit home hard.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,465
    Farooq said:

    Who could have thought the Brazilian election would end up a close shave?

    A narrow landing strip for victory.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,066
    Farooq said:

    Who could have thought the Brazilian election would end up a close shave?

    A win is a win, but Lula should have got more than 51% if you add up the left-of-centre parties from the first round.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,365
    edited October 30
    Farooq said:

    Who could have thought the Brazilian election would end up a close shave?

    A narrow landing strip but it looks like Lula may have nicked it.

    Edit: pipped!
  • BalrogBalrog Posts: 196

    First like Balrog's performance at this Brazilian election (I assume)

    I put some money on Bolsenaro when it got to 90, so I win over 970 now whatever happens.

    Pity it doesn't always turn out so well
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,402
    kle4 said:

    The answer is no and yes.

    No, because she simply hasn't had itime to bed in opinion like Corbyn over years, and her successor can quite quickly repudiate everything she stood for. In fact, that process started before she was even gone.

    Yes, because her short tenure caused such a commotion so swiftly and meaningfully that no one could ignore it, not even her party, and has likely crystallised opinion about them for years to come as it revealed the absolute mess we are in. Truss need not even be mentioned, but reference to what her time led to, and why, will still hit home hard.

    I'm not convinced about either tbh. What does Labour gain from banging on about Truss when the consequences are still here? Labour needs to hang our economic mess round each Tory's neck; tying it to Truss enables Rishi to play the new broom card.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,683
    Not sure. It was all over so quickly. I think Johnson did a lot of the damage with Partygate and defence of sleaze, and no doubt Truss made things very bad, but there is a strange sense of order being restored this week. It’s been slow on PB at times, and you can feel the media desperately trying to keep the ‘fun’ going.
    I have a sense that the Tories know a big defeat is coming and that the next generation are keeping their heads down, pace Wallace etc. Younger Tories who survive the cull will have a chance to reshape the party, and it’s surely needed. But will it be like Hague, IDS, Howard, or Cameron?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,786
    One percent ahead with 85% counted means JB would have to be ahead by over 7% with the yet to be counted votes. Not impossible but unlikely.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Alistair said:

    Just reminded myself of my amazing analytical powers

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3099211/#Comment_3099211

    OK, assuming remining in person turnout in PA matches current country proportions and Mail ballots split 78/20 in close and lean Dem counties and 68/32 in Trump heavy districts then I have Biden winning by

    82,953 votes.

    But, of course, that is just a rough estimate.


    Actual result was Biden by 80,555

    What about next time?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,309
    edited October 30
    Alistair said:

    Just reminded myself of my amazing analytical powers

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3099211/#Comment_3099211

    OK, assuming remining in person turnout in PA matches current country proportions and Mail ballots split 78/20 in close and lean Dem counties and 68/32 in Trump heavy districts then I have Biden winning by

    82,953 votes.

    But, of course, that is just a rough estimate.


    Actual result was Biden by 80,555

    I remember that. Absolutely superb forecasting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,256

    Not sure. It was all over so quickly. I think Johnson did a lot of the damage with Partygate and defence of sleaze, and no doubt Truss made things very bad, but there is a strange sense of order being restored this week. It’s been slow on PB at times, and you can feel the media desperately trying to keep the ‘fun’ going.
    I have a sense that the Tories know a big defeat is coming and that the next generation are keeping their heads down, pace Wallace etc. Younger Tories who survive the cull will have a chance to reshape the party, and it’s surely needed. But will it be like Hague, IDS, Howard, or Cameron?

    Fortunately for the Tories, Starmer does not have the charisma of Blair and will not have the golden economic legacy of low unemployment, low inflation and a balanced budget Major and Clarke left in 1997 either,

    If inflation continues to rise, further austerity and tax rises are required and there are strikes a Starmer government would soon become unpopular
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,309
    geoffw said:

    One percent ahead with 85% counted means JB would have to be ahead by over 7% with the yet to be counted votes. Not impossible but unlikely.

    It’s all over.

    Lula is 1.01 on Betfair.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,712
    FPT...

    Is the Honourable Member for Bish outing herself...


    ...as a Sunderland supporter?
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 533
    So Lula who left office 12 years ago sails back into the presidency to begin a third term at the age of 77.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,640
    HYUFD said:

    Not sure. It was all over so quickly. I think Johnson did a lot of the damage with Partygate and defence of sleaze, and no doubt Truss made things very bad, but there is a strange sense of order being restored this week. It’s been slow on PB at times, and you can feel the media desperately trying to keep the ‘fun’ going.
    I have a sense that the Tories know a big defeat is coming and that the next generation are keeping their heads down, pace Wallace etc. Younger Tories who survive the cull will have a chance to reshape the party, and it’s surely needed. But will it be like Hague, IDS, Howard, or Cameron?

    Fortunately for the Tories, Starmer does not have the charisma of Blair and will not have the golden economic legacy of low unemployment, low inflation and a balanced budget Major and Clarke left in 1997 either,

    If inflation continues to rise, further austerity and tax rises are required and there are strikes a Starmer government would soon become unpopular
    Austerity is a choice, not a requirement
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,553
    Bolsonaro tried everything . Last minute bribes to the electorate in a desperate bid to win during the final debate .

    Good riddance to the stain on humanity.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,309
    I find Tories banging on about Corbo effing pathetic, as I have said frequently on here. It just seems desperate. The bloke is not even a Labour MP anymore.

    Similarly, I doubt Labour droning on about Liz Truss will help them much. It just seems a bit needy when she is no longer PM.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,256
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,256
    edited October 30
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not sure. It was all over so quickly. I think Johnson did a lot of the damage with Partygate and defence of sleaze, and no doubt Truss made things very bad, but there is a strange sense of order being restored this week. It’s been slow on PB at times, and you can feel the media desperately trying to keep the ‘fun’ going.
    I have a sense that the Tories know a big defeat is coming and that the next generation are keeping their heads down, pace Wallace etc. Younger Tories who survive the cull will have a chance to reshape the party, and it’s surely needed. But will it be like Hague, IDS, Howard, or Cameron?

    Fortunately for the Tories, Starmer does not have the charisma of Blair and will not have the golden economic legacy of low unemployment, low inflation and a balanced budget Major and Clarke left in 1997 either,

    If inflation continues to rise, further austerity and tax rises are required and there are strikes a Starmer government would soon become unpopular
    Austerity is a choice, not a requirement
    The alternative of course to no austerity at all is massively increased taxes, on average earners as well as the rich given the scale of the current deficit
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,640
    nico679 said:

    Bolsonaro tried everything . Last minute bribes to the electorate in a desperate bid to win during the final debate .

    Good riddance to the stain on humanity.

    I wish him very specific ills that I will not detail on here.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,465
    Lula just edging Amazonas.
    Bloody NIMBIES everywhere!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,482
    nico679 said:

    Bolsonaro tried everything . Last minute bribes to the electorate in a desperate bid to win during the final debate .

    Good riddance to the stain on humanity.

    Don't count his type out until they are physically removed from office.

    It's certainly been a much closer election than anticipated!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359
    Farooq said:

    Who could have thought the Brazilian election would end up a close shave?

    The bald facts can’t be denied.
  • Leon/SeanT/MissyG/whoever is a nasty, racist, horrible bully and when he comes on the site the quality drops quickly. I now actively avoid the site when he is around.

    Got to say I think you are comprehensively wrong in this assessment. I don't recognise any of what you claim about him. He is forthright and does a fine line in abuse but he is no bully. He doesn't expect anyone to be cowed by his postings and delights in people fighting back against him. I would suggest that it is undeniable that he is an asset to this site even though I disagree with him on the majority of what he posts.
    Perhaps you missed when he came on here and posted a photo of somebody he called an autistic virgin and then said that was what I look like. What is that if not bullying? He then did it to several other posters.

    You are wrong Richard, completely wrong.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,640

    I find Tories banging on about Corbo effing pathetic, as I have said frequently on here. It just seems desperate. The bloke is not even a Labour MP anymore.

    Similarly, I doubt Labour droning on about Liz Truss will help them much. It just seems a bit needy when she is no longer PM.

    There is an important difference: policy choices that were made by a PM are likelier to have longer-lasting repercussions than policy choices planned but not implemented.
    The trick is not to have inept leaders, but then if you must have them to do it in opposition.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,482
    Nigelb said:

    Farooq said:

    Who could have thought the Brazilian election would end up a close shave?

    The bald facts can’t be denied.
    Bolsonaro would have uprooted everything, left nothing but a blank canvas.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,000
    Lula 1.44% ahead with 2.97% left to count. This is the point where the tanks start their engines....
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,402

    What worries me is how people are saying 'there needs to be an investigation.'

    I would have thought that given the foreign secretary soon to be prime minister's phone was hacked that an investigation would already have taken place internally? Right???? What we'd like to know is what are the findings (so far).

    The problem is that for all the bullish noises about defeating Russia and its Potemkin army, if we find Russia guilty of hacking the government, cutting those cables to the Shetlands, and all the way back to Salisbury and Litvinenko, then we'd need to respond. But how? Blow up Nordstream? According to Russia, we've already done that. Decline Russian donations to the Conservative Party? Get real. Safer to leave the whole thing undetermined. It was probably Russia, but we can't be 100 per cent sure. That'll do it. It's what Jeremy Corbyn would have said, isn't it? Except he would have blocked foreign donations.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,482
    What's the legislature situation like in Brazil?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,465
    Minas Gerais now a dead heat.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,640
    dixiedean said:

    Brazil at least seems to be able to manage to count over 100 million votes in a few hours.
    Take note US and Australia.

    Speed is far less important than robust anti-interference measures.
    Paper ballots for the win
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,482
    dixiedean said:

    Minas Gerais now a dead heat.

    Recap from the Rings of Power?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,485
    nico679 said:

    Bolsonaro tried everything . Last minute bribes to the electorate in a desperate bid to win during the final debate .

    Good riddance to the stain on humanity.

    I detest Bolsanaro, but Lula is pretty bloody awful too. Poor Brazilians.
  • HYUFD said:

    Arguably worse as at least Corbyn had some popular appeal, he got 40% in 2017 and 32% in 2019, even if he was not able to match the popular appeal of Boris at the last general election.

    Truss however never had any significant appeal, even Tory MPs wanted Sunak and Tory members Badenoch but within a month had pursued an agenda so radical and unpopular and for which she had no mandate from the electorate that she was polling worse than the LDs did in 2005 and 2010

    It's easy to see Truss becoming a bit of an unperson in Conservative circles, though the consequences of her six weeks will reverberate down the years.

    Johnson has more potential to be a Corbyn figure; toxic to many, loved by his fans and refusing to go quietly.

    Starmer gave Jez the rope to hang himself then efficiently pushed him out of the party. Can Sunak be so ruthless and effective?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,758
    edited October 30
    dixiedean said:

    Minas Gerais now a dead heat.

    Lula has just crept ahead in MG, 50.05% to 49.97%.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359

    Not sure. It was all over so quickly. I think Johnson did a lot of the damage with Partygate and defence of sleaze, and no doubt Truss made things very bad, but there is a strange sense of order being restored this week. It’s been slow on PB at times, and you can feel the media desperately trying to keep the ‘fun’ going.
    I have a sense that the Tories know a big defeat is coming and that the next generation are keeping their heads down, pace Wallace etc. Younger Tories who survive the cull will have a chance to reshape the party, and it’s surely needed. But will it be like Hague, IDS, Howard, or Cameron?

    Yes, the dumpster fire has been a collective effort.
    The acrid stench won’t be expunged by getting rid of a single figurehead like Corbyn. It’s going to take time.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    FPT...

    Is the Honourable Member for Bish outing herself...


    ...as a Sunderland supporter?

    I have no idea.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,465
    edited October 30
    rcs1000 said:

    nico679 said:

    Bolsonaro tried everything . Last minute bribes to the electorate in a desperate bid to win during the final debate .

    Good riddance to the stain on humanity.

    I detest Bolsanaro, but Lula is pretty bloody awful too. Poor Brazilians.
    Pretty bloody awful.
    But not psychotic.
    So, that could be seen as fortunate and sensible Brazilians.
  • glwglw Posts: 8,790

    What worries me is how people are saying 'there needs to be an investigation.'

    I would have thought that given the foreign secretary soon to be prime minister's phone was hacked that an investigation would already have taken place internally? Right???? What we'd like to know is what are the findings (so far).

    There has been an investigation I'm sure, it's knowledge of that that people are leaking, that's how the leakers know the target, scope, some of the dates, and supposed culprits. But that does not mean that the findings should be disclosed, there are a whole bunch of good reasons for not letting the Russians know what we know, and you really don't want the whole world knowing.

    For example say there's a new highly effective hack that has bypassed a fully patched and managed iPhone, perhaps even the iMessage Blastdoor didn't work (which is a bit of isolated software that parses messages), you really don't want anyone else knowing any details, because the Russians may know what works, but the Chinese may not. If details come out, even indirectly, that can tip off adversaries that "hey there is a way around that protection, lets take another look at how to attack it".

    The people who are qualified to assess what it is safe to say almost certainly aren't leaking anything, it's people who don't know that are going to the papers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,482
    rcs1000 said:

    nico679 said:

    Bolsonaro tried everything . Last minute bribes to the electorate in a desperate bid to win during the final debate .

    Good riddance to the stain on humanity.

    I detest Bolsanaro, but Lula is pretty bloody awful too. Poor Brazilians.
    He must be pretty detested himself to only scrape a win against Bolsonaro.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,753
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nico679 said:

    Bolsonaro tried everything . Last minute bribes to the electorate in a desperate bid to win during the final debate .

    Good riddance to the stain on humanity.

    I detest Bolsanaro, but Lula is pretty bloody awful too. Poor Brazilians.
    He must be pretty detested himself to only scrape a win against Bolsonaro.
    I remember a Froggy relative of mine saying of Chirac vs Le Pen in 2002 that she would vote for the crook, not the fascist.

    I imagine lots of Brazilians thought the same today.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,157

    What worries me is how people are saying 'there needs to be an investigation.'

    I would have thought that given the foreign secretary soon to be prime minister's phone was hacked that an investigation would already have taken place internally? Right???? What we'd like to know is what are the findings (so far).

    The problem is that for all the bullish noises about defeating Russia and its Potemkin army, if we find Russia guilty of hacking the government, cutting those cables to the Shetlands, and all the way back to Salisbury and Litvinenko, then we'd need to respond. But how? Blow up Nordstream? According to Russia, we've already done that. Decline Russian donations to the Conservative Party? Get real. Safer to leave the whole thing undetermined. It was probably Russia, but we can't be 100 per cent sure. That'll do it. It's what Jeremy Corbyn would have said, isn't it? Except he would have blocked foreign donations.
    Knowing who was behind it is only part of the issue. What information was compromised, what dangers did it pose and how could it have been avoided?
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 533
    If Lula scores less than 51% even if he makes it to 50.9% his majority will sound very small: "Lula has won the election by 50 point ... percent to Bolsonaro's 49 point ... percent." It's unlikely that Bolsonaro will make a friendly call tonight to concede the election and wish Lula all the best. He will probably cry foul.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,066
    nico679 said:

    Bolsonaro tried everything . Last minute bribes to the electorate in a desperate bid to win during the final debate .

    Good riddance to the stain on humanity.

    It's time for him to concede the election.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Nick Hardwick
    @nicklhardwick2
    What’s happening in Manston is a national disgrace. Hundred illegally detained on the whim of a politician. Women and children including from Iran sleeping on mats on the floors of tents for weeks as winter approaches. Diseases of the past rife. And now firebombs. Appalling
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Minas Gerais now a dead heat.

    Recap from the Rings of Power?
    Ask the Balrog 😆
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,256
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nico679 said:

    Bolsonaro tried everything . Last minute bribes to the electorate in a desperate bid to win during the final debate .

    Good riddance to the stain on humanity.

    I detest Bolsanaro, but Lula is pretty bloody awful too. Poor Brazilians.
    He must be pretty detested himself to only scrape a win against Bolsonaro.
    Biden also only got 51% against Trump, neither he nor Lula were great candidates but they weren't Trump or Bolsonaro
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,000
    edited October 30
    That's it. Lula 1.78% ahead with 1.72% left to count.

    EDIT. Jumped the gun! 1.6% ahead!

    DOUBLE EDIT. That's really it. 1.6% ahead, 1.55% left.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,583
    Final result has Lula 2.1m ahead of Bols 51/49
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,066
    edited October 30
    The polls underestimated Bolsonaro once again, although not by as much as in the first round.

    Next election: Denmark on Tuesday.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Danish_general_election#2022
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 895
    The sentiment probably goes much further back, but the first time I saw it was in the 1991 Louisia governor's race between corrupt John Edwards and former KKK leader, David Duke:
    'Humorous unofficial bumper stickers were created in support of Edwards over Duke, despite Edwards' negative reputation. One bumper sticker read "Vote for the Lizard, not the Wizard", while another read "Vote For The Crook: It's Important."'
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Louisiana_gubernatorial_election

    Something similar was used in the 2002 French presidential election, urging a vote for Jacques Chirac.

    (Fun fact: At one of the trials in which Edwards escaped conviction, the jurors, who had been housed in a hotel, stole towels from the hotel. So, one can say that he truly had a jury of his peers.)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,465
    Lula an inspiration and role model for a 70 something Boris Johnson.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,640
    dixiedean said:

    Lula an inspiration and role model for a 70 something Boris Johnson.

    How long do you honestly think lardarse will last?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,309
    DJ41 said:

    If Lula scores less than 51% even if he makes it to 50.9% his majority will sound very small: "Lula has won the election by 50 point ... percent to Bolsonaro's 49 point ... percent." It's unlikely that Bolsonaro will make a friendly call tonight to concede the election and wish Lula all the best. He will probably cry foul.

    Cry more
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,465
    Farooq said:

    dixiedean said:

    Lula an inspiration and role model for a 70 something Boris Johnson.

    How long do you honestly think lardarse will last?
    Well. There is that.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,497
    edited October 30

    Leon/SeanT/MissyG/whoever is a nasty, racist, horrible bully and when he comes on the site the quality drops quickly. I now actively avoid the site when he is around.

    Got to say I think you are comprehensively wrong in this assessment. I don't recognise any of what you claim about him. He is forthright and does a fine line in abuse but he is no bully. He doesn't expect anyone to be cowed by his postings and delights in people fighting back against him. I would suggest that it is undeniable that he is an asset to this site even though I disagree with him on the majority of what he posts.
    Perhaps you missed when he came on here and posted a photo of somebody he called an autistic virgin and then said that was what I look like. What is that if not bullying? He then did it to several other posters.

    You are wrong Richard, completely wrong.
    Let's stop talking about Leon. Being the focus of conversation would be what he would want after all.

    Just to back up your "autistic virgin" comment Horse, in my book anyone who proposes "autistic" as a sleight, or insult is a 24 carat arse. I have a dog in this race so I can't begin to explain how it p***** me off when he casually uses such a put down, claims to be an expert on ASD, and when challenged he resorts to insults like "humourless" and "snowflake".
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,583
    60.5m to 58.2m 51%/49% final result
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,000
    In the online words of the Brazilian Justica Eleitoral:

    "Eleição matematicamente definida (Eleito)"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,482
    edited October 30
    dixiedean said:

    Lula an inspiration and role model for a 70 something Boris Johnson.

    Boris will never see the inside of a jail cell though (nor will Trump), though it would add some spice to his comeback story.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571
    Sunak announcing he is now going to COP is not, as opponents will so desperately attempt to portray it, a u-turn on yet another bad decision - because in truth such great progress has been made on the credit crisis budget this week, things are now in a different place freeing him up to go.



    🤣
  • BalrogBalrog Posts: 196
    I wonder when they declare the result.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,465
    Balrog said:

    I wonder when they declare the result.

    Result has been declared by Superior Electoral Court.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,000

    Sunak announcing he is now going to COP is not, as opponents will so desperately attempt to portray it, a u-turn on yet another bad decision - because in truth such great progress has been made on the credit crisis budget this week, things are now in a different place freeing him up to go.



    🤣

    It'll turn out to have been an epic political cock-up and u-turn worthy of Truss herself.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,978

    Sunak announcing he is now going to COP is not, as opponents will so desperately attempt to portray it, a u-turn on yet another bad decision - because in truth such great progress has been made on the credit crisis budget this week, things are now in a different place freeing him up to go.



    🤣

    COP 27 sounds like just another jolly for the world's politicians.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,978
    edited October 30
    Andy_JS said:

    The polls underestimated Bolsonaro once again, although not by as much as in the first round.

    Next election: Denmark on Tuesday.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Danish_general_election#2022

    Lula v Bolsanero sounds like a case of " there is no settling the point of precedency between a louse and a flea".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Lula an inspiration and role model for a 70 something Boris Johnson.

    Boris will never see the inside of a jail cell though (nor will Trump), though it would add some spice to his comeback story.
    I wouldn’t be so sure about Trump.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,465
    Brazil has two States named Rio Grande.
    Neither are anywhere near the Amazon.
    That doesn't sit easily with me.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,160
    Sean_F said:

    Sunak announcing he is now going to COP is not, as opponents will so desperately attempt to portray it, a u-turn on yet another bad decision - because in truth such great progress has been made on the credit crisis budget this week, things are now in a different place freeing him up to go.



    🤣

    COP 27 sounds like just another jolly for the world's politicians.
    Immediately before the G20 in Bali.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047

    DJ41 said:

    If Lula scores less than 51% even if he makes it to 50.9% his majority will sound very small: "Lula has won the election by 50 point ... percent to Bolsonaro's 49 point ... percent." It's unlikely that Bolsonaro will make a friendly call tonight to concede the election and wish Lula all the best. He will probably cry foul.

    Cry more
    Cry Hard....
  • BalrogBalrog Posts: 196
    dixiedean said:

    Balrog said:

    I wonder when they declare the result.

    Result has been declared by Superior Electoral Court.
    But not settled by Betfair yet...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359

    Sunak announcing he is now going to COP is not, as opponents will so desperately attempt to portray it, a u-turn on yet another bad decision - because in truth such great progress has been made on the credit crisis budget this week, things are now in a different place freeing him up to go.

    🤣

    It'll turn out to have been an epic political cock-up and u-turn worthy of Truss herself.
    Some shade from the palace.
    https://twitter.com/tomwatson/status/1586743300635213829
  • MJWMJW Posts: 774
    Sean_F said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The polls underestimated Bolsonaro once again, although not by as much as in the first round.

    Next election: Denmark on Tuesday.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Danish_general_election#2022

    Lula v Bolsanero sounds like a case of " there is no settling the point of precedency between a louse and a flea".
    Hmmm...Lula has his issues, some fairly large, but he's not pretty much a fascist and conspiracist loon intent on destroying the Amazon. More like choosing between an ear infection (unpleasant, annoying but fundamentally survivable and liveable with) and terminal cancer (very much not as a Bolsonaro win would mean the end of meaningful democracy).
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 8,571

    Sunak announcing he is now going to COP is not, as opponents will so desperately attempt to portray it, a u-turn on yet another bad decision - because in truth such great progress has been made on the credit crisis budget this week, things are now in a different place freeing him up to go.



    🤣

    It'll turn out to have been an epic political cock-up and u-turn worthy of Truss herself.
    Yes. And it puts us On topic. Why on Earth waste time talking about Lettuce Liz - it’s the lettuce that is now more newsworthy anyway - when Sunak is the new gift that keeps on giving?

    What is already crystal clear, wether it’s him personally, or his confidants and strategists, likely all of them, they are acting MASSIVELY INSECURE. All Sunak’s unforced errors come from pandering to the right, be it dodgy back room deals with MPs (that weren’t remotely necessary were they?) bizarre right wing policy for the party at hustings now being scrapped, or whatever he thinks will please the right wing media commenteriate, like axing the Net Zero supporting MPs and distancing UK from the COP.

    This psychological flaw of insecurity isn’t going anywhere, so it’s too easy to predict continued decisions pandering to the right, damagingly rowed back on leaving him lampooned as mister flip flop.

    Incredible. Three Primeministers in one parliament and they have come up with another dud 🤦‍♀️ The flaw this time, probably predictable with hindsight, after the brass necks of the previous two greasy polers, Sunak, like the Lion in WoO lacks the courage of his own convictions. No backbone. Ironically not enough brass neck this time.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,066
    Of the 10 million votes up for grabs from minor candidates in the first round, 3 million went to Lula and 7 million to Bolsonaro.

    https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2022/apuracao/presidente.ghtml
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,583

    DJ41 said:

    If Lula scores less than 51% even if he makes it to 50.9% his majority will sound very small: "Lula has won the election by 50 point ... percent to Bolsonaro's 49 point ... percent." It's unlikely that Bolsonaro will make a friendly call tonight to concede the election and wish Lula all the best. He will probably cry foul.

    Cry more
    Cry Hard....
    Xmas always make me cry
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,553
    For all of Lula’s faults he invested in welfare and education during his previous time in office . The election was far too close for comfort and with wannabe dictators like Bolsonaro if you don’t remove them after one term they can cause huge damage to the institutions that are the foundations of democracy .

  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,639
    Is…. is it over? Can we say Bolsonaro lost? Might there still be a rain forest?
  • pingping Posts: 3,210
    edited October 30
    Overall, pretty poor performance from the Brazilian polling industry.

    I rode Lula’s odds down on R1 (on the basis the polls and odds were just too far apart) then sat out R2.

    My betfair account is up a couple of hundred quid, so I can’t complain.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,481
    edited October 30

    What worries me is how people are saying 'there needs to be an investigation.'

    I would have thought that given the foreign secretary soon to be prime minister's phone was hacked that an investigation would already have taken place internally? Right???? What we'd like to know is what are the findings (so far).

    The problem is that for all the bullish noises about defeating Russia and its Potemkin army, if we find Russia guilty of hacking the government, cutting those cables to the Shetlands, and all the way back to Salisbury and Litvinenko, then we'd need to respond. But how? Blow up Nordstream? According to Russia, we've already done that. Decline Russian donations to the Conservative Party? Get real. Safer to leave the whole thing undetermined. It was probably Russia, but we can't be 100 per cent sure. That'll do it. It's what Jeremy Corbyn would have said, isn't it? Except he would have blocked foreign donations.
    I think hacking the government and cutting cables are different kinds of thing.

    The British are probably already trying to hack the Russian government, and for all we know succeeding. If you get breached in something you and the adversary are already constantly trying to do you don't need to respond, you just try harder to win more and lose less.

    AFAIK cutting communications cables would be something that countries that aren't at war generally haven't been doing. I'm not sure what the response should be if they were doing that, it's complicated. You probably want some kind of response to deter it, while you also generally don't want to escalate. But they're not doing this western infrastructure stuff as far as I can tell. This stuff breaks all the time and you fix it. Cables get cut by anchors, power grids get taken down by squirrels.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,066
    biggles said:

    Is…. is it over? Can we say Bolsonaro lost? Might there still be a rain forest?

    Yes it's over.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    Finally a (small) betting winner.
    Bolsanaro looks well set to win again in the future to me
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,256
    Pulpstar said:

    Finally a (small) betting winner.
    Bolsanaro looks well set to win again in the future to me

    Boris and Trump no doubt hope to make a comeback too
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,824
    I don’t understand the lead, 2nd and 3rd paras.

    At GE2019 “reminding voters of the Corbyn connection” was pointing out who the current party leader was, the man who would be PM if they were elected. The lead itself goes on to say that the connection became relatively insignificant once he was out of office.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,824

    Sunak announcing he is now going to COP is not, as opponents will so desperately attempt to portray it, a u-turn on yet another bad decision - because in truth such great progress has been made on the credit crisis budget this week, things are now in a different place freeing him up to go.



    🤣

    It'll turn out to have been an epic political cock-up and u-turn worthy of Truss herself.
    Yes. And it puts us On topic. Why on Earth waste time talking about Lettuce Liz - it’s the lettuce that is now more newsworthy anyway - when Sunak is the new gift that keeps on giving?

    What is already crystal clear, wether it’s him personally, or his confidants and strategists, likely all of them, they are acting MASSIVELY INSECURE. All Sunak’s unforced errors come from pandering to the right, be it dodgy back room deals with MPs (that weren’t remotely necessary were they?) bizarre right wing policy for the party at hustings now being scrapped, or whatever he thinks will please the right wing media commenteriate, like axing the Net Zero supporting MPs and distancing UK from the COP.

    This psychological flaw of insecurity isn’t going anywhere, so it’s too easy to predict continued decisions pandering to the right, damagingly rowed back on leaving him lampooned as mister flip flop.

    Incredible. Three Primeministers in one parliament and they have come up with another dud 🤦‍♀️ The flaw this time, probably predictable with hindsight, after the brass necks of the previous two greasy polers, Sunak, like the Lion in WoO lacks the courage of his own convictions. No backbone. Ironically not enough brass neck this time.
    Same as Mrs May, really, who could have struck out for a compromise softer Brexit and left her mark on history, but for her fear of the nutters behind her.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,885
    edited October 31
    biggles said:

    Is…. is it over? Can we say Bolsonaro lost? Might there still be a rain forest?

    Yes yes and yes.

    Someone on here posted yesterday that the world really ought to step in and support Brazil financially to save the Amazon. It really does matter and yes we should. We could probably do so in conjunction with a carefully managed eco-tourism. Think of the Amazon as a giant Eden Project or Serengeti and you get the idea.

    p.s. Good morning!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,065
    Heathener said:

    biggles said:

    Is…. is it over? Can we say Bolsonaro lost? Might there still be a rain forest?

    Yes yes and yes.

    Someone on here posted yesterday that the world really ought to step in and support Brazil financially to save the Amazon. It really does matter and yes we should. We could probably do so in conjunction with a carefully managed eco-tourism. Think of the Amazon as a giant Eden Project or Serengeti and you get the idea.

    p.s. Good morning!
    It's an interesting idea, but there are massive problems with it:
    *) There is a good chance that any monetary aid given disappears down a black hole, and the rainforest continues to be destroyed. How do you ensure it does not?
    *) It is a massive area. The cost to police any operations would be truly massive.
    *) As well as the size of the area, the transport network is very poor, hindering policing. This means more local police, who are easily bribed or cowed. Or increasing transport links, which then makes access for bad people easier...
    *) There is not the political will to do it in Brazil. Occasional good words about it, but too many in Brazil see it as a resource to be plundered.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,885
    edited October 31
    On the Truss story, the overnight front pages are the first ones to be (almost) universally damaging to Sunak's Government. From the Liz Truss story to the appalling Suella Braverman to Rishi Sunak's frankly disgraceful decision to boycott COP27 (which he might be about to U-turn on) this tory Government's sleaze is floating back to the surface like the turds in the sea that they encourage. Apologies to any of you having breakfast at this point. Their lackadaisical approach to national security would take my breath away if it any longer caused me surprise.

    I was prepared to give Rishi Sunak time and grace but his Cabinet appointments revealed him to be a weak man or poor judgement: an indecisiveness which characterised his failure to take down Johnson at peak partygate, to the cost of this country.

    He is also himself mired in sleaze and dodgy money.

    This idea that Sunak and Truss are not joined at the hip also won't wash. They both stood by their Prime Minister Boris Johnson, one as his Chancellor of the Exchequer, the other as his Foreign Secretary.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,065

    Heathener said:

    biggles said:

    Is…. is it over? Can we say Bolsonaro lost? Might there still be a rain forest?

    Yes yes and yes.

    Someone on here posted yesterday that the world really ought to step in and support Brazil financially to save the Amazon. It really does matter and yes we should. We could probably do so in conjunction with a carefully managed eco-tourism. Think of the Amazon as a giant Eden Project or Serengeti and you get the idea.

    p.s. Good morning!
    It's an interesting idea, but there are massive problems with it:
    *) There is a good chance that any monetary aid given disappears down a black hole, and the rainforest continues to be destroyed. How do you ensure it does not?
    *) It is a massive area. The cost to police any operations would be truly massive.
    *) As well as the size of the area, the transport network is very poor, hindering policing. This means more local police, who are easily bribed or cowed. Or increasing transport links, which then makes access for bad people easier...
    *) There is not the political will to do it in Brazil. Occasional good words about it, but too many in Brazil see it as a resource to be plundered.
    Just adding another, more general point: IMV mass tourism is *not* a good way to preserve pristine wildernesses. Mass tourism is inherently resource-hungry and polluting. You can have 'carefully managed' small-volume tourism (e.g. the Antarctic), but the finds raised from that would be absolutely trifling compared to the policing costs.
This discussion has been closed.