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Will the Truss link be as damaging to the CON brand as Corbyn was to LAB? – politicalbetting.com

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  • I'm sitting in my local pub right now (last day of paternity leave) and the five locals at the bar are discussing the boats across the channel *right this minute* and spitting teeth about it.

    This is cutting through. Hugely.

    Paternity leave is fun.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.

    Alternatively we can accept people will come here and set up processing centres in France to process their applications. Give passage to those approved and those who,don’t, if they come over by other means, just return them.
    We have legal routes of migration. If they don't qualify then it's hard no. We need to end the pull factor and make the trip completely uneconomic. A huge crackdown on illegal work, a deal with France to end the boat crossings and ensuring legitimate migrants are given access to legal routes of migration. The default approach should be deportation for all illegal immigrants with no right of appeal and barring that person from ever being able to legally migrate to the UK. Make the cost of illegal immigration extremely high.
    Punishments being made stronger don't work if people don't think they'll be caught.
    So disabuse them of that notion. Have the crackdown, shut down all of the carwashes and deport them all, shutdown all of the restaurants hiring illegal workers and deport them all, huge fines for all of the firms with dodgy site labourers being paid cash. Have a series of no warning inspections and don't give the businesses doing the dirt a way out with paying fines, just shut them down, no right of appeal, directors barred from opening a business for 20 years.
    Very good ideas.

    Then post a policeman at the dwelling of everyone on any dangerous watchlist (terrorism, domestic abuse, you name it) and have that policeman accompany that person everywhere they go.

    Then put a policeman in every supermarket in the country to deter shoplifters and, should shoplifting occur, the culprit should be given five years imprisonment.

    A few more measures like that should make a serious indent into our crime stats.

    But wait. It's not going to happen. None of it. Including your measures to deter/prevent illegal immigration.

    So why don't we instead think about what is workable and doable. Not what might be workable but is as we have seen, transparently obviously not doable.
    Max’s idea is workable - it’s small enough that the impact isn’t that great.

    As for whether it works or not - Max missed one important factor. The illegal immigrant who reports the company isn’t treated as an illegal immigrant if he reports the case. Instead reporting the company employing him / her triggers a reward of some form or other rather than instant deportation.

    Currently the incentive of all parties who are illegal or employ illegal workers is to keep quiet about it. The fix we need is to utterly change the incentive for one of the parties involved.

    And that means we need to incentivize illegal immigrants to report illegal employers to the extent that employers have major incentives to never employ an illegal worker
    Why would he trade employment for a one-off reward?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:
    What an idiot.
    The key sentence being “warning that the voters would punish such slackness [on security matters]”…

    The Metro has utterly misreported him in the headline. I’m surprised you fell for it
    Misrepresented, but not 'utterly' - the direct quote from him was also that "we" will replace the PM.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    edited October 2022
    DougSeal said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.

    That's the deal that needs to be struck.
    I don't think there is any amount of money that would make that politically acceptable to France - which is not a backwards shithole like Rwanda that can be bought off.

    So the price would have to be a political prize greather than just large amounts of money. Fucked if I know what that is.

    Tow backs that did not breach French territorual waters but without French consent would 100% work as a deterrent but tories lack the resolve to do it.
    Border Force staff would refuse to do the tow backs.
    Because no-one wishes to put people into jeopardy which is what you are doing if you tow a boat and leave it outside land

    The point is that there are zero easy options here as you demonstrated with your attack on my comment regarding setting up application centers closer to the places where valid immigrants are coming from
    "Attack on your comment" = disagreeing with you.

    Australia has no such issues. However, the metastasising tumour that is Wokery has now taken a firm hold amongst all branches of our public sector and quango institutions so they'd simply refuse to do it.

    A clear out and reset might work.
    Refusing to kill people or break the law now falls inside the boundaries of this nebulous and undefined thing called “wokery”.
    Only in the world of @Casino_Royale who seems to be careful to only comment on part of my arguments - while missing whole parts of my argument.

    He is the only person who seems of think I was happy to open our ports and airports when the reality was you get people to apply locally to remove the incentive to travel to Calais
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    if she did it 6 times in 6 weeks at the HO, time to look at her email use as attorney general surely? Or are we to assume this bad habit suddenly emerged from nowhere?
    https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1587069144683479041
    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1587054452204257283
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:
    What an idiot.
    The key sentence being “warning that the voters would punish such slackness [on security matters]”…

    The Metro has utterly misreported him in the headline. I’m surprised you fell for it
    The Metro above reproach, Shirley 🤭


  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    IMPORTANT: Bolsonaro’s most powerful ally in congress, equivalent to House Speaker in US, says “the will of the majority expressed at the ballot box should never be contested.” Clear message to Bolsonaro and a plea for a smooth transition to Lula
    https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1586865535043735552

    We were talking about twitter this morning and a possible revenue model.

    I love it when people put "IMPORTANT" at the beginning of a tweet. Says who the fuck. Perhaps an extra fiver for having the temerity to do that.
    I'd support a similar measure, right here on PB, for anyone who prefaces a post:

    BREAKING


    And, while we are at it, a £10 fine for any of the below. Easy money for OGH...

    • Doing some heavy lifting
    • Colour me …
    • IANAE/IANAL
    • Feature, not a bug
    • Ad hom
    • This
    • It’s a view
    • North of [to mean more than]
    • As I’ve said passim
    • One of those irregular verbs
    • Late of this parish
    • Nail. Head.
    • Unspoofable
    £50 for anyone misspelling a name to make a political attack.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited October 2022
    If the Tory party hadnt defenestrated in short order right about now 'with the pound now worth just 89 cents and amidst unprecedented market chaos' chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng rises to give his financial statement with the Tories reeling from the latest poll putting them in fourth on 7% equal with Reform UK.
    Small mercies.
  • eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    British Volt.
    A bit murky.
    Hundreds of people promised work. None materialised.
    Levelling up?

    The loss of free access to the European market killed the case for the big players (China; the US; South Korea) to build new plants here.
    Brexit sunk our hope of being a significant part of the re-engineering of the European car industry, without massive government intervention.

    The time for committing to any such intervention was several years back.
    Who was British Volt supposed to be building batteries for? The current post-Brexit settlement makes the UK a pain in the arse to manufacture complex things like cars with JIT sourcing of components from across Europe.
    Their entire business plan was if we build it customers will come.

    And when you asked where the customers would actually come from you got a shrug at best (and clear lies when you pressed the point).

    The irony is that there is a big investment at Teesworks on a lithium refining plant that will produce 15% of Europe’s needs and that’s going ahead regardless
    Exporting lithium is simpler than exporting finished batteries with various components sourced from all over. Or exporting finished cars with even more components.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    IMPORTANT: Bolsonaro’s most powerful ally in congress, equivalent to House Speaker in US, says “the will of the majority expressed at the ballot box should never be contested.” Clear message to Bolsonaro and a plea for a smooth transition to Lula
    https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1586865535043735552

    We were talking about twitter this morning and a possible revenue model.

    I love it when people put "IMPORTANT" at the beginning of a tweet. Says who the fuck. Perhaps an extra fiver for having the temerity to do that.
    I'd support a similar measure, right here on PB, for anyone who prefaces a post:

    BREAKING


    And, while we are at it, a £10 fine for any of the below. Easy money for OGH...

    • Doing some heavy lifting
    • Colour me …
    • IANAE/IANAL
    • Feature, not a bug
    • Ad hom
    • This
    • It’s a view
    • North of [to mean more than]
    • As I’ve said passim
    • One of those irregular verbs
    • Late of this parish
    • Nail. Head.
    • Unspoofable
    This.

    :wink:
    Even now, the finest minds on PB are trying to construct a single, semi-coherent post that contains *all* of those phrases.

    Before realising that @Anabobazina has *already done it*.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    IMPORTANT: Bolsonaro’s most powerful ally in congress, equivalent to House Speaker in US, says “the will of the majority expressed at the ballot box should never be contested.” Clear message to Bolsonaro and a plea for a smooth transition to Lula
    https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1586865535043735552

    We were talking about twitter this morning and a possible revenue model.

    I love it when people put "IMPORTANT" at the beginning of a tweet. Says who the fuck. Perhaps an extra fiver for having the temerity to do that.
    I'd support a similar measure, right here on PB, for anyone who prefaces a post:

    BREAKING


    And, while we are at it, a £10 fine for any of the below. Easy money for OGH...

    • Doing some heavy lifting
    • Colour me …
    • IANAE/IANAL
    • Feature, not a bug
    • Ad hom
    • This
    • It’s a view
    • North of [to mean more than]
    • As I’ve said passim
    • One of those irregular verbs
    • Late of this parish
    • Nail. Head.
    • Unspoofable
    £50 for anyone misspelling a name to make a political attack.
    Rashid Sanook has to be $100?
  • I'm sitting in my local pub right now (last day of paternity leave) and the five locals at the bar are discussing the boats across the channel *right this minute* and spitting teeth about it.

    This is cutting through. Hugely.

    Can I ask what solutions they are imagining...? Also I think it rather depends where in the country you are and the demographic of the voter as to whether this cuts through or not. It *really* upsets some people. Much less so other people.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    IMPORTANT: Bolsonaro’s most powerful ally in congress, equivalent to House Speaker in US, says “the will of the majority expressed at the ballot box should never be contested.” Clear message to Bolsonaro and a plea for a smooth transition to Lula
    https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1586865535043735552

    We were talking about twitter this morning and a possible revenue model.

    I love it when people put "IMPORTANT" at the beginning of a tweet. Says who the fuck. Perhaps an extra fiver for having the temerity to do that.
    I'd support a similar measure, right here on PB, for anyone who prefaces a post:

    BREAKING


    And, while we are at it, a £10 fine for any of the below. Easy money for OGH...

    • Doing some heavy lifting
    • Colour me …
    • IANAE/IANAL
    • Feature, not a bug
    • Ad hom
    • This
    • It’s a view
    • North of [to mean more than]
    • As I’ve said passim
    • One of those irregular verbs
    • Late of this parish
    • Nail. Head.
    • Unspoofable
    £50 for anyone misspelling a name to make a political attack.
    Bliar? Kier?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    IMPORTANT: Bolsonaro’s most powerful ally in congress, equivalent to House Speaker in US, says “the will of the majority expressed at the ballot box should never be contested.” Clear message to Bolsonaro and a plea for a smooth transition to Lula
    https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1586865535043735552

    We were talking about twitter this morning and a possible revenue model.

    I love it when people put "IMPORTANT" at the beginning of a tweet. Says who the fuck. Perhaps an extra fiver for having the temerity to do that.
    I'd support a similar measure, right here on PB, for anyone who prefaces a post:

    BREAKING


    And, while we are at it, a £10 fine for any of the below. Easy money for OGH...

    • Doing some heavy lifting
    • Colour me …
    • IANAE/IANAL
    • Feature, not a bug
    • Ad hom
    • This
    • It’s a view
    • North of [to mean more than]
    • As I’ve said passim
    • One of those irregular verbs
    • Late of this parish
    • Nail. Head.
    • Unspoofable
    £50 for anyone misspelling a name to make a political attack.
    Rashid Sanook has to be $100?
    Not sure if that's a political attack. I'm thinking of the OG "Bliar", through "Camoron", "BoZo" etc.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    mwadams said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    IMPORTANT: Bolsonaro’s most powerful ally in congress, equivalent to House Speaker in US, says “the will of the majority expressed at the ballot box should never be contested.” Clear message to Bolsonaro and a plea for a smooth transition to Lula
    https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1586865535043735552

    We were talking about twitter this morning and a possible revenue model.

    I love it when people put "IMPORTANT" at the beginning of a tweet. Says who the fuck. Perhaps an extra fiver for having the temerity to do that.
    I'd support a similar measure, right here on PB, for anyone who prefaces a post:

    BREAKING


    And, while we are at it, a £10 fine for any of the below. Easy money for OGH...

    • Doing some heavy lifting
    • Colour me …
    • IANAE/IANAL
    • Feature, not a bug
    • Ad hom
    • This
    • It’s a view
    • North of [to mean more than]
    • As I’ve said passim
    • One of those irregular verbs
    • Late of this parish
    • Nail. Head.
    • Unspoofable
    This.

    :wink:
    Even now, the finest minds on PB are trying to construct a single, semi-coherent post that contains *all* of those phrases.

    Before realising that @Anabobazina has *already done it*.
    We should add anyone complaining about language and grammar onto the list. I fear it may well bankrupt @Anabobazina ...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Andy_JS said:

    Farage is going to be prime minister pretty soon unless these border problems are resolved.

    That could be fun.
    PMF: Right, I'm in charge. Tow the boats back
    Navy: We don't have the ability to do so
    Why don't they have the ability?

    Here's how the RAN did it.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1435759/asylum-seekers-claim-australian-navy-blew-their-boat

    The added complication for the channel is that the lifeboat would have to be towed west so that it can be cast off in international waters and only has enough fuel to get to France and nowhere else.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Scott_xP said:

    if she did it 6 times in 6 weeks at the HO, time to look at her email use as attorney general surely? Or are we to assume this bad habit suddenly emerged from nowhere?
    https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1587069144683479041
    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1587054452204257283

    People can change. For example, I used to be a werewolf but im alright NOWWWWWWWWWWW
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.

    Alternatively we can accept people will come here and set up processing centres in France to process their applications. Give passage to those approved and those who,don’t, if they come over by other means, just return them.
    We have legal routes of migration. If they don't qualify then it's hard no. We need to end the pull factor and make the trip completely uneconomic. A huge crackdown on illegal work, a deal with France to end the boat crossings and ensuring legitimate migrants are given access to legal routes of migration. The default approach should be deportation for all illegal immigrants with no right of appeal and barring that person from ever being able to legally migrate to the UK. Make the cost of illegal immigration extremely high.
    Punishments being made stronger don't work if people don't think they'll be caught.
    So disabuse them of that notion. Have the crackdown, shut down all of the carwashes and deport them all, shutdown all of the restaurants hiring illegal workers and deport them all, huge fines for all of the firms with dodgy site labourers being paid cash. Have a series of no warning inspections and don't give the businesses doing the dirt a way out with paying fines, just shut them down, no right of appeal, directors barred from opening a business for 20 years.
    Very good ideas.

    Then post a policeman at the dwelling of everyone on any dangerous watchlist (terrorism, domestic abuse, you name it) and have that policeman accompany that person everywhere they go.

    Then put a policeman in every supermarket in the country to deter shoplifters and, should shoplifting occur, the culprit should be given five years imprisonment.

    A few more measures like that should make a serious indent into our crime stats.

    But wait. It's not going to happen. None of it. Including your measures to deter/prevent illegal immigration.

    So why don't we instead think about what is workable and doable. Not what might be workable but is as we have seen, transparently obviously not doable.
    Max’s idea is workable - it’s small enough that the impact isn’t that great.

    As for whether it works or not - Max missed one important factor. The illegal immigrant who reports the company isn’t treated as an illegal immigrant if he reports the case. Instead reporting the company employing him / her triggers a reward of some form or other rather than instant deportation.

    Currently the incentive of all parties who are illegal or employ illegal workers is to keep quiet about it. The fix we need is to utterly change the incentive for one of the parties involved.

    And that means we need to incentivize illegal immigrants to report illegal employers to the extent that employers have major incentives to never employ an illegal worker
    Why would he trade employment for a one-off reward?
    Legal employment would pay better.

    There should be a similar incentive for arrivals by boat to shop the trafficker.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    IMPORTANT: Bolsonaro’s most powerful ally in congress, equivalent to House Speaker in US, says “the will of the majority expressed at the ballot box should never be contested.” Clear message to Bolsonaro and a plea for a smooth transition to Lula
    https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1586865535043735552

    We were talking about twitter this morning and a possible revenue model.

    I love it when people put "IMPORTANT" at the beginning of a tweet. Says who the fuck. Perhaps an extra fiver for having the temerity to do that.
    I'd support a similar measure, right here on PB, for anyone who prefaces a post:

    BREAKING


    And, while we are at it, a £10 fine for any of the below. Easy money for OGH...

    • Doing some heavy lifting
    • Colour me …
    • IANAE/IANAL
    • Feature, not a bug
    • Ad hom
    • This
    • It’s a view
    • North of [to mean more than]
    • As I’ve said passim
    • One of those irregular verbs
    • Late of this parish
    • Nail. Head.
    • Unspoofable
    £50 for anyone misspelling a name to make a political attack.
    Bliar? Kier?
    Bliar, yes - I think that was the originator of the trend. Kier I don't think would qualify.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited October 2022

    Nigelb said:

    Do you think the prime minister Rishi Sunak should or should not attend the COP27 climate change conference in Egypt in November?

    Definitely should: 36%
    Probably should: 25%
    Probably should not: 11%
    Definitely should not: 9%

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1587046726921224192

    Ask the same question about attending the local village fete. We probably want our politicians to do everything.
    Or it could be, despite right wing media being very stridently opposed to Net Zero, no matter how you phrase the polling question vast majority of Tory voters support Net Zero, so Sunak has arsed this one up.

    Unforced Error from Captain Unforced Error!
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.

    Alternatively we can accept people will come here and set up processing centres in France to process their applications. Give passage to those approved and those who,don’t, if they come over by other means, just return them.
    We have legal routes of migration. If they don't qualify then it's hard no. We need to end the pull factor and make the trip completely uneconomic. A huge crackdown on illegal work, a deal with France to end the boat crossings and ensuring legitimate migrants are given access to legal routes of migration. The default approach should be deportation for all illegal immigrants with no right of appeal and barring that person from ever being able to legally migrate to the UK. Make the cost of illegal immigration extremely high.
    Punishments being made stronger don't work if people don't think they'll be caught.
    So disabuse them of that notion. Have the crackdown, shut down all of the carwashes and deport them all, shutdown all of the restaurants hiring illegal workers and deport them all, huge fines for all of the firms with dodgy site labourers being paid cash. Have a series of no warning inspections and don't give the businesses doing the dirt a way out with paying fines, just shut them down, no right of appeal, directors barred from opening a business for 20 years.
    Very good ideas.

    Then post a policeman at the dwelling of everyone on any dangerous watchlist (terrorism, domestic abuse, you name it) and have that policeman accompany that person everywhere they go.

    Then put a policeman in every supermarket in the country to deter shoplifters and, should shoplifting occur, the culprit should be given five years imprisonment.

    A few more measures like that should make a serious indent into our crime stats.

    But wait. It's not going to happen. None of it. Including your measures to deter/prevent illegal immigration.

    So why don't we instead think about what is workable and doable. Not what might be workable but is as we have seen, transparently obviously not doable.
    Max’s idea is workable - it’s small enough that the impact isn’t that great.

    As for whether it works or not - Max missed one important factor. The illegal immigrant who reports the company isn’t treated as an illegal immigrant if he reports the case. Instead reporting the company employing him / her triggers a reward of some form or other rather than instant deportation.

    Currently the incentive of all parties who are illegal or employ illegal workers is to keep quiet about it. The fix we need is to utterly change the incentive for one of the parties involved.

    And that means we need to incentivize illegal immigrants to report illegal employers to the extent that employers have major incentives to never employ an illegal worker
    Why would he trade employment for a one-off reward?
    Because the reward is the ability to work / reside legally in the UK, or £x,000 when he is probably being paid less than £5 an hour (looking at one case from last week).
  • TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.

    That's the deal that needs to be struck.
    I don't think there is any amount of money that would make that politically acceptable to France - which is not a backwards shithole like Rwanda that can be bought off.

    So the price would have to be a political prize greather than just large amounts of money. Fucked if I know what that is.

    Tow backs that did not breach French territorual waters but without French consent would 100% work as a deterrent but tories lack the resolve to do it.
    Border Force staff would refuse to do the tow backs.
    What's the point of a border force that doesn't defend the borders of the country? That's literally their job.
    That's not their job at all. Their job is to follow the orders of the government.

    What member of the government would implement tow back as a policy.

    Is where you should be starting from.
    The Navy have already said no. They are neither trained nor equipped for such an operation to be successful.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    IMPORTANT: Bolsonaro’s most powerful ally in congress, equivalent to House Speaker in US, says “the will of the majority expressed at the ballot box should never be contested.” Clear message to Bolsonaro and a plea for a smooth transition to Lula
    https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1586865535043735552

    We were talking about twitter this morning and a possible revenue model.

    I love it when people put "IMPORTANT" at the beginning of a tweet. Says who the fuck. Perhaps an extra fiver for having the temerity to do that.
    I'd support a similar measure, right here on PB, for anyone who prefaces a post:

    BREAKING


    And, while we are at it, a £10 fine for any of the below. Easy money for OGH...

    • Doing some heavy lifting
    • Colour me …
    • IANAE/IANAL
    • Feature, not a bug
    • Ad hom
    • This
    • It’s a view
    • North of [to mean more than]
    • As I’ve said passim
    • One of those irregular verbs
    • Late of this parish
    • Nail. Head.
    • Unspoofable
    £50 for anyone misspelling a name to make a political attack.
    Rashid Sanook has to be $100?
    Not sure if that's a political attack. I'm thinking of the OG "Bliar", through "Camoron", "BoZo" etc.
    I just want to see Biden cough up!
    Yes i agree, something Sir Kieth must action on day one
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784

    I'm sitting in my local pub right now (last day of paternity leave) and the five locals at the bar are discussing the boats across the channel *right this minute* and spitting teeth about it.

    This is cutting through. Hugely.

    Can I ask what solutions they are imagining...? Also I think it rather depends where in the country you are and the demographic of the voter as to whether this cuts through or not. It *really* upsets some people. Much less so other people.
    Just what we need, a policy platform drawn up to appeal to the midday midweek drinking crowd.
  • mwadams said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    IMPORTANT: Bolsonaro’s most powerful ally in congress, equivalent to House Speaker in US, says “the will of the majority expressed at the ballot box should never be contested.” Clear message to Bolsonaro and a plea for a smooth transition to Lula
    https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1586865535043735552

    We were talking about twitter this morning and a possible revenue model.

    I love it when people put "IMPORTANT" at the beginning of a tweet. Says who the fuck. Perhaps an extra fiver for having the temerity to do that.
    I'd support a similar measure, right here on PB, for anyone who prefaces a post:

    BREAKING


    And, while we are at it, a £10 fine for any of the below. Easy money for OGH...

    • Doing some heavy lifting
    • Colour me …
    • IANAE/IANAL
    • Feature, not a bug
    • Ad hom
    • This
    • It’s a view
    • North of [to mean more than]
    • As I’ve said passim
    • One of those irregular verbs
    • Late of this parish
    • Nail. Head.
    • Unspoofable
    This.

    :wink:
    Even now, the finest minds on PB are trying to construct a single, semi-coherent post that contains *all* of those phrases.

    Before realising that @Anabobazina has *already done it*.
    I was going to, but the post says each must "preface" the post.

    I don't think you could reasonably preface something with all of the above.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    Nigelb said:

    Do you think the prime minister Rishi Sunak should or should not attend the COP27 climate change conference in Egypt in November?

    Definitely should: 36%
    Probably should: 25%
    Probably should not: 11%
    Definitely should not: 9%

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1587046726921224192

    Ask the same question about attending the local village fete. We probably want our politicians to do everything.
    Or it could be, despite right wing media being very stridently opposed to Net Zero, no matter how you phrase the polling question vast majority of Tory voters support Net Zero, so Sunak has arsed this one up.

    Unforced Error from Captain Unforced Error!
    This is something that would be described as an unforced error by his haters no matter what he did.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    Scott_xP said:

    if she did it 6 times in 6 weeks at the HO, time to look at her email use as attorney general surely? Or are we to assume this bad habit suddenly emerged from nowhere?
    https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1587069144683479041
    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1587054452204257283

    But she looked Rishi in the eyes and promised him she’d never to do it again, does that not count for something in your book?

    Surely every PM in history HAS to trust colleagues making such promises, or the whole business of government will never work?
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Farage is going to be prime minister pretty soon unless these border problems are resolved.

    That could be fun.
    PMF: Right, I'm in charge. Tow the boats back
    Navy: We don't have the ability to do so
    Why don't they have the ability?

    Here's how the RAN did it.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1435759/asylum-seekers-claim-australian-navy-blew-their-boat

    The added complication for the channel is that the lifeboat would have to be towed west so that it can be cast off in international waters and only has enough fuel to get to France and nowhere else.
    I don't know why they don't, but that was their response earlier when pressed about doing so. You're the naval man not I, so is it the lack of the right types of boats? Enough crew?

    They won't refuse an order, so this sounds like the admiralty having to explain to the politicians - probably with crayons - why "just tow them back" won't work.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.

    Alternatively we can accept people will come here and set up processing centres in France to process their applications. Give passage to those approved and those who,don’t, if they come over by other means, just return them.
    We have legal routes of migration. If they don't qualify then it's hard no. We need to end the pull factor and make the trip completely uneconomic. A huge crackdown on illegal work, a deal with France to end the boat crossings and ensuring legitimate migrants are given access to legal routes of migration. The default approach should be deportation for all illegal immigrants with no right of appeal and barring that person from ever being able to legally migrate to the UK. Make the cost of illegal immigration extremely high.
    Punishments being made stronger don't work if people don't think they'll be caught.
    So disabuse them of that notion. Have the crackdown, shut down all of the carwashes and deport them all, shutdown all of the restaurants hiring illegal workers and deport them all, huge fines for all of the firms with dodgy site labourers being paid cash. Have a series of no warning inspections and don't give the businesses doing the dirt a way out with paying fines, just shut them down, no right of appeal, directors barred from opening a business for 20 years.
    Very good ideas.

    Then post a policeman at the dwelling of everyone on any dangerous watchlist (terrorism, domestic abuse, you name it) and have that policeman accompany that person everywhere they go.

    Then put a policeman in every supermarket in the country to deter shoplifters and, should shoplifting occur, the culprit should be given five years imprisonment.

    A few more measures like that should make a serious indent into our crime stats.

    But wait. It's not going to happen. None of it. Including your measures to deter/prevent illegal immigration.

    So why don't we instead think about what is workable and doable. Not what might be workable but is as we have seen, transparently obviously not doable.
    Max’s idea is workable - it’s small enough that the impact isn’t that great.

    As for whether it works or not - Max missed one important factor. The illegal immigrant who reports the company isn’t treated as an illegal immigrant if he reports the case. Instead reporting the company employing him / her triggers a reward of some form or other rather than instant deportation.

    Currently the incentive of all parties who are illegal or employ illegal workers is to keep quiet about it. The fix we need is to utterly change the incentive for one of the parties involved.

    And that means we need to incentivize illegal immigrants to report illegal employers to the extent that employers have major incentives to never employ an illegal worker
    Why would he trade employment for a one-off reward?
    Legal employment would pay better.

    There should be a similar incentive for arrivals by boat to shop the trafficker.
    Only flaw in that argument is that thd traffickers aren’t anywhere near the UK so not subject to UK law - I’m sure they end up in Dubai as soon as they have enough cash
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    Nigelb said:

    Do you think the prime minister Rishi Sunak should or should not attend the COP27 climate change conference in Egypt in November?

    Definitely should: 36%
    Probably should: 25%
    Probably should not: 11%
    Definitely should not: 9%

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1587046726921224192

    How about an option for doing it via Zoom like sensible people who really care about the planet?
    That might be an improvement on calling it an unnecessary distraction.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    I'm sure at some point in our history this country could deal with invasions properly.
    Now politicians & civil servants are in one of about four categories though

    i. Won't do anything about it. Someone else's problem
    ii. Can't do anything about it. We can't possibly do that
    iii. Actively assisting in it as it's a lucrative business

    iv. Might just try and slow it/stop it.
    Anyone with the temerity to even try the slightest measure against it will be taken apart by those with the vested interests in the categories i - iii though.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.

    That's the deal that needs to be struck.
    I don't think there is any amount of money that would make that politically acceptable to France - which is not a backwards shithole like Rwanda that can be bought off.

    So the price would have to be a political prize greather than just large amounts of money. Fucked if I know what that is.

    Tow backs that did not breach French territorual waters but without French consent would 100% work as a deterrent but tories lack the resolve to do it.
    Border Force staff would refuse to do the tow backs.
    What's the point of a border force that doesn't defend the borders of the country? That's literally their job.
    That's not their job at all. Their job is to follow the orders of the government.

    What member of the government would implement tow back as a policy.

    Is where you should be starting from.
    The Navy have already said no. They are neither trained nor equipped for such an operation to be successful.
    Has "The Navy" said no? Would be surprised first because HMF never say no to anything that the politicians suggest and which might get them more funding, kudos, promotion (cf Iraq, Afghan); and secondly they couldn't just say "no". They could say we need X, Y and Z in which case please refer to my first point.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457

    I'm sitting in my local pub right now (last day of paternity leave) and the five locals at the bar are discussing the boats across the channel *right this minute* and spitting teeth about it.

    This is cutting through. Hugely.

    Paternity leave is fun.
    My mother in law has been a great help. I only have to deal with our toddler at weekends and early mornings/evenings, and she takes care of the newborn.

    I owe her a lot.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 883
    eek said:

    glw said:

    Absobloodylutely. Have I not made this point repeatedly? Kill the black economy and you remove the pull - the ability to disappear and work cash in hand.

    Whenever anyone proposes such a thing we nearly always get pushback due to it infringing civil liberties. No party wants ID cards, or more KYC regulations, or police raids, or more intrusive HMRC, or local government keeping track of home occupation. Which are the sort of things you would have to do at a minimum to get a hold on things.
    The solution is ID cards.

    I hate it to. But at some point, Nixon has to go to China, and a Tory PM must announce a Belgian-style registration system.
    Technically the issue is just right to work checks being done correctly and a change in incentives so not all the parties involved in employing illegal workers are incentivized to keep things secret.

    Now Id cards would make those checks slightly easier but you then create 2 issues - the need for an id card in the first place and a second act to make carrying it a legal requirement
    Don't know about making it illegal not to carry it. In Germany, contrary to the widespread belief of many, it is not illegal to go out without your ID. It just means that, in situations where the authorities need to verify your identity, they may take additional measures to get that verified (like when some nice Bundespolizei gave me a lift back to my flat so they could verify my identity) or you can't access a particular service until you produce it. No need to make carrying it a legal requirement.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    Do you think the prime minister Rishi Sunak should or should not attend the COP27 climate change conference in Egypt in November?

    Definitely should: 36%
    Probably should: 25%
    Probably should not: 11%
    Definitely should not: 9%

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1587046726921224192

    Ask the same question about attending the local village fete. We probably want our politicians to do everything.
    Or it could be, despite right wing media being very stridently opposed to Net Zero, no matter how you phrase the polling question vast majority of Tory voters support Net Zero, so Sunak has arsed this one up.

    Unforced Error from Captain Unforced Error!
    This is something that would be described as an unforced error by his haters no matter what he did.
    You don’t regard no to COP becoming yes to COP as a u-turn?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    ping said:

    Email from TravelZoo flogging 3 hour flights to see the northern lights;

    https://www.omegabreaks.com/itineraries/9031-Special Offer Northern Lights Flights 2022

    As a society, we’re really not taking climate change seriously, are we?

    It's okay for members of the elite to jet around the world to attend conferences.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.

    That's the deal that needs to be struck.
    I don't think there is any amount of money that would make that politically acceptable to France - which is not a backwards shithole like Rwanda that can be bought off.

    So the price would have to be a political prize greather than just large amounts of money. Fucked if I know what that is.

    Tow backs that did not breach French territorual waters but without French consent would 100% work as a deterrent but tories lack the resolve to do it.
    Border Force staff would refuse to do the tow backs.
    What's the point of a border force that doesn't defend the borders of the country? That's literally their job.
    That's not their job at all. Their job is to follow the orders of the government.

    What member of the government would implement tow back as a policy.

    Is where you should be starting from.
    The Navy have already said no. They are neither trained nor equipped for such an operation to be successful.
    Has "The Navy" said no? Would be surprised first because HMF never say no to anything that the politicians suggest and which might get them more funding, kudos, promotion (cf Iraq, Afghan); and secondly they couldn't just say "no". They could say we need X, Y and Z in which case please refer to my first point.
    Its the military. They never say "no". They point out what they have, what they would need, and the likelihood of what could go wrong. At which point the request gets dropped.

    So when the MoD Press Office tweets that the Navy will not do so, that is them saying "no". Why they have said so is the interesting bit, is it not...

    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQPress/status/1488915057840996362
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    I'm sitting in my local pub right now (last day of paternity leave) and the five locals at the bar are discussing the boats across the channel *right this minute* and spitting teeth about it.

    This is cutting through. Hugely.

    I took the Ukrainians to Waitrose for baking supplies this morning (every day is the Great Ukrainian Bake Off in our house). Two old yentas at the checkout were going on about that woman in Kent who found an informal immigrant in her front room demanding to be taken to Manchester. They were fucking furious about the situation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    .

    Scott_xP said:

    if she did it 6 times in 6 weeks at the HO, time to look at her email use as attorney general surely? Or are we to assume this bad habit suddenly emerged from nowhere?
    https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1587069144683479041
    https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1587054452204257283

    But she looked Rishi in the eyes and promised him she’d never to do it again, does that not count for something in your book?

    Surely every PM in history HAS to trust colleagues making such promises, or the whole business of government will never work?
    A new PM first gets to choose their colleagues.
    And no PM in history was obliged to make Braverman Home Secretary. That was a choice.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    🔵 Suella Braverman still has the "full confidence" of Rishi Sunak in the wake of revelations around her use of emails, Downing Street said this lunchtime.

    Read the latest on our politics live blog ⬇️
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/31/rishi-sunak-cop27-news-suella-braverman-security-breach-latest/ https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1587071979911368704/photo/1
  • RunDeepRunDeep Posts: 77

    xyzxyzxyz said:

    A commentator on Guido said that the Albanians are not claiming political asylum but that they are victims of slavery. There is no provision in law for them to be removed once they are in the UK.

    Yup. They will be receiving excellent (and free) legal advice from left-wing immigration lawyers as soon as they land about this.
    The issue of charities and assorted lawyers trying to undermine the implementation of any immigration policy is probably the real contemporary equivalent to the undemocratic power of the unions before Thatcher.
    Requiring the government to comply with the laws it passes is not undermining anything or undemocratic. The government could perfectly well withdraw from the various Refugee Conventions if it wanted to. This would allow it to have a much narrower definition of "asylum" or indeed none at all. To the best of my knowledge it has never suggested such a thing. While it is a signatory to such conventions there is nothing improper about expecting it to abide by legal commitments it has freely entered into.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457
    eek said:

    DougSeal said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.

    That's the deal that needs to be struck.
    I don't think there is any amount of money that would make that politically acceptable to France - which is not a backwards shithole like Rwanda that can be bought off.

    So the price would have to be a political prize greather than just large amounts of money. Fucked if I know what that is.

    Tow backs that did not breach French territorual waters but without French consent would 100% work as a deterrent but tories lack the resolve to do it.
    Border Force staff would refuse to do the tow backs.
    Because no-one wishes to put people into jeopardy which is what you are doing if you tow a boat and leave it outside land

    The point is that there are zero easy options here as you demonstrated with your attack on my comment regarding setting up application centers closer to the places where valid immigrants are coming from
    "Attack on your comment" = disagreeing with you.

    Australia has no such issues. However, the metastasising tumour that is Wokery has now taken a firm hold amongst all branches of our public sector and quango institutions so they'd simply refuse to do it.

    A clear out and reset might work.
    Refusing to kill people or break the law now falls inside the boundaries of this nebulous and undefined thing called “wokery”.
    Only in the world of @Casino_Royale who seems to be careful to only comment on part of my arguments - while missing whole parts of my argument.

    He is the only person who seems of think I was happy to open our ports and airports when the reality was you get people to apply locally to remove the incentive to travel to Calais
    What if, say, 30 million worldwide applied annually, we resourced up to process their applications quickly, and then 70% of them qualified? What then?

    The reason we don't is because the one (only?) lever we have for controlling overall numbers is to ensure you can only make applications here, and then to make it extremely difficult to get here.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    edited October 2022
    mwadams said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    IMPORTANT: Bolsonaro’s most powerful ally in congress, equivalent to House Speaker in US, says “the will of the majority expressed at the ballot box should never be contested.” Clear message to Bolsonaro and a plea for a smooth transition to Lula
    https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1586865535043735552

    We were talking about twitter this morning and a possible revenue model.

    I love it when people put "IMPORTANT" at the beginning of a tweet. Says who the fuck. Perhaps an extra fiver for having the temerity to do that.
    I'd support a similar measure, right here on PB, for anyone who prefaces a post:

    BREAKING


    And, while we are at it, a £10 fine for any of the below. Easy money for OGH...

    • Doing some heavy lifting
    • Colour me …
    • IANAE/IANAL
    • Feature, not a bug
    • Ad hom
    • This
    • It’s a view
    • North of [to mean more than]
    • As I’ve said passim
    • One of those irregular verbs
    • Late of this parish
    • Nail. Head.
    • Unspoofable
    This.

    :wink:
    Even now, the finest minds on PB are trying to construct a single, semi-coherent post that contains *all* of those phrases.

    Before realising that @Anabobazina has *already done it*.
    Ha. Perhaps we could introduce a secondary rule whereby the fine is waived if - and only if - one successfully deploys *all* of the cliches in one’s post.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.

    That's the deal that needs to be struck.
    I don't think there is any amount of money that would make that politically acceptable to France - which is not a backwards shithole like Rwanda that can be bought off.

    So the price would have to be a political prize greather than just large amounts of money. Fucked if I know what that is.

    Tow backs that did not breach French territorual waters but without French consent would 100% work as a deterrent but tories lack the resolve to do it.
    Border Force staff would refuse to do the tow backs.
    RN wouldn't. Give them the order and they'll do it. The Australian and Greek navies did.
    If you were still in the RN would you follow such an order?
    Are you fucking kidding me? I did 100x worse.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Another of BoZo's grand announcements end up as simply a very expensive press release...

    British Volt factory, was originally earmarked for Wales, got moved to Red Wall in time for Johnson announcement in Dec 2020, created much hope in NE, amid scepticism…

    My understanding - Company wanted early access to as much as £30m of £100m Automotive Transformation Fund… https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1337458835771060224
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,593
    Scott_xP said:

    🔵 Suella Braverman still has the "full confidence" of Rishi Sunak in the wake of revelations around her use of emails, Downing Street said this lunchtime.

    Read the latest on our politics live blog ⬇️
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/31/rishi-sunak-cop27-news-suella-braverman-security-breach-latest/ https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1587071979911368704/photo/1

    Ah - the traditional precursor to a resignation statement.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668
    eek said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.

    Alternatively we can accept people will come here and set up processing centres in France to process their applications. Give passage to those approved and those who,don’t, if they come over by other means, just return them.
    We have legal routes of migration. If they don't qualify then it's hard no. We need to end the pull factor and make the trip completely uneconomic. A huge crackdown on illegal work, a deal with France to end the boat crossings and ensuring legitimate migrants are given access to legal routes of migration. The default approach should be deportation for all illegal immigrants with no right of appeal and barring that person from ever being able to legally migrate to the UK. Make the cost of illegal immigration extremely high.
    Punishments being made stronger don't work if people don't think they'll be caught.
    So disabuse them of that notion. Have the crackdown, shut down all of the carwashes and deport them all, shutdown all of the restaurants hiring illegal workers and deport them all, huge fines for all of the firms with dodgy site labourers being paid cash. Have a series of no warning inspections and don't give the businesses doing the dirt a way out with paying fines, just shut them down, no right of appeal, directors barred from opening a business for 20 years.
    Very good ideas.

    Then post a policeman at the dwelling of everyone on any dangerous watchlist (terrorism, domestic abuse, you name it) and have that policeman accompany that person everywhere they go.

    Then put a policeman in every supermarket in the country to deter shoplifters and, should shoplifting occur, the culprit should be given five years imprisonment.

    A few more measures like that should make a serious indent into our crime stats.

    But wait. It's not going to happen. None of it. Including your measures to deter/prevent illegal immigration.

    So why don't we instead think about what is workable and doable. Not what might be workable but is as we have seen, transparently obviously not doable.
    Max’s idea is workable - it’s small enough that the impact isn’t that great.

    As for whether it works or not - Max missed one important factor. The illegal immigrant who reports the company isn’t treated as an illegal immigrant if he reports the case. Instead reporting the company employing him / her triggers a reward of some form or other rather than instant deportation.

    Currently the incentive of all parties who are illegal or employ illegal workers is to keep quiet about it. The fix we need is to utterly change the incentive for one of the parties involved.

    And that means we need to incentivize illegal immigrants to report illegal employers to the extent that employers have major incentives to never employ an illegal worker
    Why would he trade employment for a one-off reward?
    Legal employment would pay better.

    There should be a similar incentive for arrivals by boat to shop the trafficker.
    Only flaw in that argument is that thd traffickers aren’t anywhere near the UK so not subject to UK law - I’m sure they end up in Dubai as soon as they have enough cash
    There must be someone on the ground providing the boat even it is sourced from AliExpress. Is trafficking not illegal in France, too?

    I don't suppose there is direct contact between the migrants and the boat provider so perhaps the incentive needs to apply at the meeting point on the French beach rather than at Dungeness.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    IMPORTANT: Bolsonaro’s most powerful ally in congress, equivalent to House Speaker in US, says “the will of the majority expressed at the ballot box should never be contested.” Clear message to Bolsonaro and a plea for a smooth transition to Lula
    https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1586865535043735552

    We were talking about twitter this morning and a possible revenue model.

    I love it when people put "IMPORTANT" at the beginning of a tweet. Says who the fuck. Perhaps an extra fiver for having the temerity to do that.
    I'd support a similar measure, right here on PB, for anyone who prefaces a post:

    BREAKING


    And, while we are at it, a £10 fine for any of the below. Easy money for OGH...

    • Doing some heavy lifting
    • Colour me …
    • IANAE/IANAL
    • Feature, not a bug
    • Ad hom
    • This
    • It’s a view
    • North of [to mean more than]
    • As I’ve said passim
    • One of those irregular verbs
    • Late of this parish
    • Nail. Head.
    • Unspoofable
    £50 for anyone misspelling a name to make a political attack.
    David Chameleon and Tony Bliar were classics of the genre
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited October 2022
    A thought on the polls and the 'narrative'. Opinium has given some column inches on 'comeback' from the usual suspects, but tonights Redfield might be interesting. Thursday saw almost no movement compared to the others and indeed Redfield are now the upper end outlier, more than even People Polling who have been consistently upper end. So, if the general bounce is ongoing we might see a double effect movement tonight reinforcing the Sun etc 'comeback kid' stuff. Conversely, another high 20s to 30 lead and its 'comeback stalls, sack Suella!'
    The Thursdsy poll had over a 20 point lead for Labour with over 65s, higher than the 50 to 65 lead which stuck out like a sore thumb........ be interesting to see what turns out
    Generally this week should show us if we are amidst a bounce or one has occured and ceased/peaked
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    edited October 2022

    mwadams said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    IMPORTANT: Bolsonaro’s most powerful ally in congress, equivalent to House Speaker in US, says “the will of the majority expressed at the ballot box should never be contested.” Clear message to Bolsonaro and a plea for a smooth transition to Lula
    https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1586865535043735552

    We were talking about twitter this morning and a possible revenue model.

    I love it when people put "IMPORTANT" at the beginning of a tweet. Says who the fuck. Perhaps an extra fiver for having the temerity to do that.
    I'd support a similar measure, right here on PB, for anyone who prefaces a post:

    BREAKING


    And, while we are at it, a £10 fine for any of the below. Easy money for OGH...

    • Doing some heavy lifting
    • Colour me …
    • IANAE/IANAL
    • Feature, not a bug
    • Ad hom
    • This
    • It’s a view
    • North of [to mean more than]
    • As I’ve said passim
    • One of those irregular verbs
    • Late of this parish
    • Nail. Head.
    • Unspoofable
    This.

    :wink:
    Even now, the finest minds on PB are trying to construct a single, semi-coherent post that contains *all* of those phrases.

    Before realising that @Anabobazina has *already done it*.
    We should add anyone complaining about language and grammar onto the list. I fear it may well bankrupt @Anabobazina ...
    YANAA
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.

    That's the deal that needs to be struck.
    I don't think there is any amount of money that would make that politically acceptable to France - which is not a backwards shithole like Rwanda that can be bought off.

    So the price would have to be a political prize greather than just large amounts of money. Fucked if I know what that is.

    Tow backs that did not breach French territorual waters but without French consent would 100% work as a deterrent but tories lack the resolve to do it.
    Border Force staff would refuse to do the tow backs.
    RN wouldn't. Give them the order and they'll do it. The Australian and Greek navies did.
    If you were still in the RN would you follow such an order?
    Are you fucking kidding me? I did 100x worse.
    Surely you didn't vote Conservative, did you?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    Do you think the prime minister Rishi Sunak should or should not attend the COP27 climate change conference in Egypt in November?

    Definitely should: 36%
    Probably should: 25%
    Probably should not: 11%
    Definitely should not: 9%

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1587046726921224192

    Ask the same question about attending the local village fete. We probably want our politicians to do everything.
    Or it could be, despite right wing media being very stridently opposed to Net Zero, no matter how you phrase the polling question vast majority of Tory voters support Net Zero, so Sunak has arsed this one up.

    Unforced Error from Captain Unforced Error!
    This is something that would be described as an unforced error by his haters no matter what he did.
    You don’t regard no to COP becoming yes to COP as a u-turn?
    Not what I said. Thought I haven't seen anything beyond "he can't go" "changing" to "he'd like to go but it might not be possible".

    What I said is: if he'd said from the outset he was going, you'd have called that an unforced error because he should have stayed home dealing with more urgent domestic matters.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Scott_xP said:

    🔵 Suella Braverman still has the "full confidence" of Rishi Sunak in the wake of revelations around her use of emails, Downing Street said this lunchtime.

    Read the latest on our politics live blog ⬇️
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/31/rishi-sunak-cop27-news-suella-braverman-security-breach-latest/ https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1587071979911368704/photo/1

    Lightning Rod. Cartoon villain etc etc
    He's going to use her to try and soak up all the anger
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    🚨 Hearing preparation is now under way for Rishi Sunak to attend COP27
    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1587075621452189697
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,457
    Dura_Ace said:

    I'm sitting in my local pub right now (last day of paternity leave) and the five locals at the bar are discussing the boats across the channel *right this minute* and spitting teeth about it.

    This is cutting through. Hugely.

    I took the Ukrainians to Waitrose for baking supplies this morning (every day is the Great Ukrainian Bake Off in our house). Two old yentas at the checkout were going on about that woman in Kent who found an informal immigrant in her front room demanding to be taken to Manchester. They were fucking furious about the situation.
    Somehow I struggle to imagine you patiently doing bake off with your houseguests everyday.
  • Scott_xP said:

    🚨 Hearing preparation is now under way for Rishi Sunak to attend COP27
    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1587075621452189697

    just as Gretta pulls out! Honestly I dont care whether he goes or not (as does most of the silent majority) but FGS show some backbone and make a decision and stick to it
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Farage is going to be prime minister pretty soon unless these border problems are resolved.

    That could be fun.
    PMF: Right, I'm in charge. Tow the boats back
    Navy: We don't have the ability to do so
    Why don't they have the ability?

    Here's how the RAN did it.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1435759/asylum-seekers-claim-australian-navy-blew-their-boat

    The added complication for the channel is that the lifeboat would have to be towed west so that it can be cast off in international waters and only has enough fuel to get to France and nowhere else.
    I don't know why they don't, but that was their response earlier when pressed about doing so. You're the naval man not I, so is it the lack of the right types of boats? Enough crew?

    They won't refuse an order, so this sounds like the admiralty having to explain to the politicians - probably with crayons - why "just tow them back" won't work.
    It depends exactly what they were asked to do. A straightforward tow back of the refugee boat would probably kill quite a few people and be a violation of French terroritorial integrity - so that's probably a straightforward no.

    However, a RAN style lifeboat tow back from international waters would be technically legal, technically possible and only very dangerous but politically inciendary.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited October 2022
    ping said:

    Email from TravelZoo flogging 3 hour flights to see the northern lights;

    https://www.omegabreaks.com/itineraries/9031-Special Offer Northern Lights Flights 2022

    As a society, we’re really not taking climate change seriously, are we?

    Indeed we are not which is strange, isn't it. Every one of us now is aware of the potential dangers of climate change, of the various activities which have been identified as contributing to it and yet no one or precious few are willing to do anything about it.

    That tells me that they either don't care, don't believe, or believe that it won't be as bad as all that.

    The broad masses are certainly not agreeing with eg XR and their ilk.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592

    mwadams said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    IMPORTANT: Bolsonaro’s most powerful ally in congress, equivalent to House Speaker in US, says “the will of the majority expressed at the ballot box should never be contested.” Clear message to Bolsonaro and a plea for a smooth transition to Lula
    https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1586865535043735552

    We were talking about twitter this morning and a possible revenue model.

    I love it when people put "IMPORTANT" at the beginning of a tweet. Says who the fuck. Perhaps an extra fiver for having the temerity to do that.
    I'd support a similar measure, right here on PB, for anyone who prefaces a post:

    BREAKING


    And, while we are at it, a £10 fine for any of the below. Easy money for OGH...

    • Doing some heavy lifting
    • Colour me …
    • IANAE/IANAL
    • Feature, not a bug
    • Ad hom
    • This
    • It’s a view
    • North of [to mean more than]
    • As I’ve said passim
    • One of those irregular verbs
    • Late of this parish
    • Nail. Head.
    • Unspoofable
    This.

    :wink:
    Even now, the finest minds on PB are trying to construct a single, semi-coherent post that contains *all* of those phrases.

    Before realising that @Anabobazina has *already done it*.
    We should add anyone complaining about language and grammar onto the list. I fear it may well bankrupt @Anabobazina ...
    YANAA
    Young Activist Network for Abortion Advocacy ?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Ukraine's Defence Ministry still has time to get their messages out with a Haloween twist.

    This morning, the 🇺🇦 Air Force of the successfully shot down 44 russian cruise missiles.
    All this before their first cup of coffee. ☕️🎃


    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1587077385094152192
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.

    That's the deal that needs to be struck.
    I don't think there is any amount of money that would make that politically acceptable to France - which is not a backwards shithole like Rwanda that can be bought off.

    So the price would have to be a political prize greather than just large amounts of money. Fucked if I know what that is.

    Tow backs that did not breach French territorual waters but without French consent would 100% work as a deterrent but tories lack the resolve to do it.
    Border Force staff would refuse to do the tow backs.
    What's the point of a border force that doesn't defend the borders of the country? That's literally their job.
    That's not their job at all. Their job is to follow the orders of the government.

    What member of the government would implement tow back as a policy.

    Is where you should be starting from.
    The Navy have already said no. They are neither trained nor equipped for such an operation to be successful.
    Has "The Navy" said no? Would be surprised first because HMF never say no to anything that the politicians suggest and which might get them more funding, kudos, promotion (cf Iraq, Afghan); and secondly they couldn't just say "no". They could say we need X, Y and Z in which case please refer to my first point.
    Its the military. They never say "no". They point out what they have, what they would need, and the likelihood of what could go wrong. At which point the request gets dropped.

    So when the MoD Press Office tweets that the Navy will not do so, that is them saying "no". Why they have said so is the interesting bit, is it not...

    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQPress/status/1488915057840996362
    Is that because they have been ordered to do so and are refusing or because they have not been ordered to do so.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    edited October 2022

    I'm sitting in my local pub right now (last day of paternity leave) and the five locals at the bar are discussing the boats across the channel *right this minute* and spitting teeth about it.

    This is cutting through. Hugely.

    Since when was a Hampshire saloon bar on a working day lunchtime anywhere close to the median voter?

    Anyway you surely need to get back home to start preparing the afternoon tea for her indoors?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    It's a magnificent analogy for the recent state of government.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    Not breaking, but quite recent.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1587027024476082177
    New NYT/Siena polls of key Senate races:

    ARIZONA
    Kelly 51
    Masters 45

    GEORGIA
    Warnock 49
    Walker 46

    NEVADA
    Masto 47
    Laxalt 47

    PENNSYLVANIA
    Fetterman 49
    Oz 44
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Farage is going to be prime minister pretty soon unless these border problems are resolved.

    That could be fun.
    PMF: Right, I'm in charge. Tow the boats back
    Navy: We don't have the ability to do so
    Why don't they have the ability?

    Here's how the RAN did it.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1435759/asylum-seekers-claim-australian-navy-blew-their-boat

    The added complication for the channel is that the lifeboat would have to be towed west so that it can be cast off in international waters and only has enough fuel to get to France and nowhere else.
    I don't know why they don't, but that was their response earlier when pressed about doing so. You're the naval man not I, so is it the lack of the right types of boats? Enough crew?

    They won't refuse an order, so this sounds like the admiralty having to explain to the politicians - probably with crayons - why "just tow them back" won't work.
    It depends exactly what they were asked to do. A straightforward tow back of the refugee boat would probably kill quite a few people and be a violation of French terroritorial integrity - so that's probably a straightforward no.

    However, a RAN style lifeboat tow back from international waters would be technically legal, technically possible and only very dangerous but politically inciendary.
    Which is "no". The politicians are dumb and ignorant. "Why can't the military just do x". The men and women with the higher up ranks then have to patently explain in detail what x means in terms of otherwise not considered y and z. At which point the request goes no further.

    If it was feasible for the navy to do tow back we would have been doing it for years. I will leave it to you to consider the practical and political factors which may shape why it isn't feasible...
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    TOPPING said:

    ping said:

    Email from TravelZoo flogging 3 hour flights to see the northern lights;

    https://www.omegabreaks.com/itineraries/9031-Special Offer Northern Lights Flights 2022

    As a society, we’re really not taking climate change seriously, are we?

    Indeed we are not which is strange, isn't it. Every one of us now is aware of the potential dangers of climate change, of the various activities which have been identified as contributing to it and yet no one or precious few are willing to do anything about it.

    That tells me that they either don't care, don't believe, or believe that it won't be as bad as all that.

    The broad masses are certainly not agreeing with eg XR and their ilk.
    I guess it's a combo of people feeling they personally won't make much of a difference, general ignorance and/or confusion over what actually causes climate change and wilful blindness to the problem (see also factory farmed animals).

    There's also no doubt a bit of IDGAF as well.
  • But but but no Tory MP voted for that. Voting to prevent that from happening is completely different, yes sir.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited October 2022
    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    Do you think the prime minister Rishi Sunak should or should not attend the COP27 climate change conference in Egypt in November?

    Definitely should: 36%
    Probably should: 25%
    Probably should not: 11%
    Definitely should not: 9%

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1587046726921224192

    Ask the same question about attending the local village fete. We probably want our politicians to do everything.
    Or it could be, despite right wing media being very stridently opposed to Net Zero, no matter how you phrase the polling question vast majority of Tory voters support Net Zero, so Sunak has arsed this one up.

    Unforced Error from Captain Unforced Error!
    This is something that would be described as an unforced error by his haters no matter what he did.
    You don’t regard no to COP becoming yes to COP as a u-turn?
    Not what I said. Thought I haven't seen anything beyond "he can't go" "changing" to "he'd like to go but it might not be possible".

    What I said is: if he'd said from the outset he was going, you'd have called that an unforced error because he should have stayed home dealing with more urgent domestic matters.
    Nope. myself and about 80% of people took it as obvious he’d pop in, would not have batted an eye lid if he done so, especially after the hard work and national pride put into recent UK COP.

    It only become a story to criticise him with when he made it one, by pandering to the vocal right wing minority who loath Net Zero policy.

    That those so vocal in their loathing of Net Zero are in such minority even on the right, and weak and wobbly Sunak arsed up pandering to them, is the only take out from this U Turn story.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    Dura_Ace said:

    I'm sitting in my local pub right now (last day of paternity leave) and the five locals at the bar are discussing the boats across the channel *right this minute* and spitting teeth about it.

    This is cutting through. Hugely.

    I took the Ukrainians to Waitrose for baking supplies this morning (every day is the Great Ukrainian Bake Off in our house). Two old yentas at the checkout were going on about that woman in Kent who found an informal immigrant in her front room demanding to be taken to Manchester. They were fucking furious about the situation.
    Somehow I struggle to imagine you patiently doing bake off with your houseguests everyday.
    His participation in removing engine parts from various kitchen appliances is presumably mandatory ?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Farage is going to be prime minister pretty soon unless these border problems are resolved.

    That could be fun.
    PMF: Right, I'm in charge. Tow the boats back
    Navy: We don't have the ability to do so
    Why don't they have the ability?

    Here's how the RAN did it.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1435759/asylum-seekers-claim-australian-navy-blew-their-boat

    The added complication for the channel is that the lifeboat would have to be towed west so that it can be cast off in international waters and only has enough fuel to get to France and nowhere else.
    I don't know why they don't, but that was their response earlier when pressed about doing so. You're the naval man not I, so is it the lack of the right types of boats? Enough crew?

    They won't refuse an order, so this sounds like the admiralty having to explain to the politicians - probably with crayons - why "just tow them back" won't work.
    It depends exactly what they were asked to do. A straightforward tow back of the refugee boat would probably kill quite a few people and be a violation of French terroritorial integrity - so that's probably a straightforward no.

    However, a RAN style lifeboat tow back from international waters would be technically legal, technically possible and only very dangerous but politically inciendary.
    Which is "no". The politicians are dumb and ignorant. "Why can't the military just do x". The men and women with the higher up ranks then have to patently explain in detail what x means in terms of otherwise not considered y and z. At which point the request goes no further.

    If it was feasible for the navy to do tow back we would have been doing it for years. I will leave it to you to consider the practical and political factors which may shape why it isn't feasible...
    You are misunderestimating the "higher up ranks" of the armed forces. They wouldn't dream of saying no to a politician, still less explain anything, which would get in the way of a new tasking and more money.

    You are imposing a narrative on the situation which overwhelmingly likely doesn't exist.

    The reality is probably that no politician has asked them to do any such thing and they are simply confirming that. HMF doesn't take an independent line on any policy decision, even on Twitter.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    A thought on the polls and the 'narrative'. Opinium has given some column inches on 'comeback' from the usual suspects, but tonights Redfield might be interesting. Thursday saw almost no movement compared to the others and indeed Redfield are now the upper end outlier, more than even People Polling who have been consistently upper end. So, if the general bounce is ongoing we might see a double effect movement tonight reinforcing the Sun etc 'comeback kid' stuff. Conversely, another high 20s to 30 lead and its 'comeback stalls, sack Suella!'
    The Thursdsy poll had over a 20 point lead for Labour with over 65s, higher than the 50 to 65 lead which stuck out like a sore thumb........ be interesting to see what turns out
    Generally this week should show us if we are amidst a bounce or one has occured and ceased/peaked

    Subsamples are meaningless – you should know this by now.

    If you want to know more about it, as Stuart Dickson about his 'time in the wilderness'.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    edited October 2022

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    Do you think the prime minister Rishi Sunak should or should not attend the COP27 climate change conference in Egypt in November?

    Definitely should: 36%
    Probably should: 25%
    Probably should not: 11%
    Definitely should not: 9%

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1587046726921224192

    Ask the same question about attending the local village fete. We probably want our politicians to do everything.
    Or it could be, despite right wing media being very stridently opposed to Net Zero, no matter how you phrase the polling question vast majority of Tory voters support Net Zero, so Sunak has arsed this one up.

    Unforced Error from Captain Unforced Error!
    This is something that would be described as an unforced error by his haters no matter what he did.
    You don’t regard no to COP becoming yes to COP as a u-turn?
    Not what I said. Thought I haven't seen anything beyond "he can't go" "changing" to "he'd like to go but it might not be possible".

    What I said is: if he'd said from the outset he was going, you'd have called that an unforced error because he should have stayed home dealing with more urgent domestic matters.
    Nope. myself and about 80% of people took it as obvious he’d pop in, would not have batted an eye lid if he done so, especially after the hard work and national pride put into recent UK COP.

    It only become a story to criticise him with when he made it one, by pandering to the vocal right wing minority who loath Net Zero policy.

    That those so vocal in their loathing of Net Zero are in such minority even on the right, and weak and wobbly Sunak arsed up pandering to them, is the only take out from this U Turn story.
    I mean, the bit in bold is just entirely nonsense.
  • Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    Do you think the prime minister Rishi Sunak should or should not attend the COP27 climate change conference in Egypt in November?

    Definitely should: 36%
    Probably should: 25%
    Probably should not: 11%
    Definitely should not: 9%

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1587046726921224192

    Ask the same question about attending the local village fete. We probably want our politicians to do everything.
    Or it could be, despite right wing media being very stridently opposed to Net Zero, no matter how you phrase the polling question vast majority of Tory voters support Net Zero, so Sunak has arsed this one up.

    Unforced Error from Captain Unforced Error!
    This is something that would be described as an unforced error by his haters no matter what he did.
    You don’t regard no to COP becoming yes to COP as a u-turn?
    Not what I said. Thought I haven't seen anything beyond "he can't go" "changing" to "he'd like to go but it might not be possible".

    What I said is: if he'd said from the outset he was going, you'd have called that an unforced error because he should have stayed home dealing with more urgent domestic matters.
    Nope. myself and about 80% of people took it as obvious he’d pop in, would not have batted an eye lid if he done so, especially after the hard work and national pride put into recent UK COP.

    It only become a story to criticise him with when he made it one, by pandering to the vocal right wing minority who loath Net Zero policy.

    That those so vocal in their loathing of Net Zero are in such minority even on the right, and weak and wobbly Sunak arsed up pandering to them, is the only take out from this U Turn story.
    well Greta thinks its a load of twaddle and is not going - is he a right wing extremist?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259

    Scott_xP said:

    There is a full scale political crisis for the home secretary Suella Braverman and new PM Rishi Sunak in the failure to prevent the Manston migrant processing centre being totally overwhelmed by asylum seekers. Here are the important facts. 1/20
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1587022185633284096

    As there is a very specific and acute Albanian element to this debacle, has the Home Office even reached out to the Albanian government? We could announce a hard line "if you are Albanian we deport you straight back to Tirana" and worry about the legalities later. To do that, the Albanian authorities need to agree to receive their people back.

    Have we asked? Or is co-operating with the forrin beneath our newly sovrin Brexity status?
    I agree, this is the solution.

    British people are actually quite generous and accommodating - just look at the response to refugees from Hong Kong and Ukraine - but they want control. They hate criminality, queue jumping and people taking the piss and third sector organisations making excuses for it and saying the only issue is we don't make it easier for them. Intergovernmental arrangements are needed with Albania and, quite frankly, we need to make some choices about Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan too - the other big sources of boat passengers.

    It really is a totally bubbled conversation and it needs an international solution.
    The simple reality which "no forrin" Tory Brexiteers deny is that there is No Legal Route to claim asylum from a stack of countries. Including Afghanistan which is appalling considering what we did in that country and the way we just abandoned them.

    So we create the boat problem by lying to morons that the country is full (it isn't) and that we take lots of refugees (we don't). Even where we clearly need international co-operation they don't. Because their version of Brexit is that we make the rules and should just be allowed to do what we want and tell the forrin what is happening.

    You would imagine that Albania would want to bring so many of its own people home. It is no longer the hermit state of old, and when so many people leave you can't regenerate as so many other poor eastern European countries have done. So a deal could be done, surely.
    Just a gentle tip: I like some of your posts but every time you put "no forrin" I stop reading.
    Why? That is the mentality of the wazzocks driving this policy. They do not want foreigners here. Thats it. They brought in a points-based migration system and run it so that no matter how desperate the labour shortages they don't fill them. They run a refugee system that allows zero applications then blame the people coming in boats.

    When the jingoistic wing of Tory members want to grow up, I will be able to spell the word properly. Until then its calling out their baseless bigotry.
    You are the only person in this board who does it and it’s rather distasteful.

    Says a lot about you - and none of it good
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    R4 at 1.45pm this week has a series on the threats to the US voting system
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    A thought on the polls and the 'narrative'. Opinium has given some column inches on 'comeback' from the usual suspects, but tonights Redfield might be interesting. Thursday saw almost no movement compared to the others and indeed Redfield are now the upper end outlier, more than even People Polling who have been consistently upper end. So, if the general bounce is ongoing we might see a double effect movement tonight reinforcing the Sun etc 'comeback kid' stuff. Conversely, another high 20s to 30 lead and its 'comeback stalls, sack Suella!'
    The Thursdsy poll had over a 20 point lead for Labour with over 65s, higher than the 50 to 65 lead which stuck out like a sore thumb........ be interesting to see what turns out
    Generally this week should show us if we are amidst a bounce or one has occured and ceased/peaked

    Subsamples are meaningless – you should know this by now.

    If you want to know more about it, as Stuart Dickson about his 'time in the wilderness'.
    Yes of course they are, but it still sticks out like a sore thumb. I'm not drawing any assumption from it, its just one of those things that make you sit up.
    Remove that setence and i wouldnt be changing any of the other words.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    A thought on the polls and the 'narrative'. Opinium has given some column inches on 'comeback' from the usual suspects, but tonights Redfield might be interesting. Thursday saw almost no movement compared to the others and indeed Redfield are now the upper end outlier, more than even People Polling who have been consistently upper end. So, if the general bounce is ongoing we might see a double effect movement tonight reinforcing the Sun etc 'comeback kid' stuff. Conversely, another high 20s to 30 lead and its 'comeback stalls, sack Suella!'
    The Thursdsy poll had over a 20 point lead for Labour with over 65s, higher than the 50 to 65 lead which stuck out like a sore thumb........ be interesting to see what turns out
    Generally this week should show us if we are amidst a bounce or one has occured and ceased/peaked

    We do say on PB big political events take two weeks or more before they clearly register in polls - so we should still be watching, asking right questions, and reserving judgement as yet, like punters do with watched horses in horse racing.

    The right questions are not the size of lead, there’s too much LLG in size of lead, it’s the Tory share recovery to watch for. Before the Starmergasm, Truss had some consistent 35s from Techne and a 34 from Opinium. To what extent does Sunak Honeymoon raise the Tory polling average is still the measure to be watching.

    The trouble with using Opinium as part of comeback narrative is the swingback distorts the average and impression - what they actually got from voters was likely something around 25 for Tory share before swingback, that sort of return has to be higher in the next Opinium for a real Honeymoon bounce, ditto all the other firms.

    So when new polls come this week, ignore the lead, the “this is the Tory score last time, this is it this time” is the only thing to measure in this CRUCIAL couple of months in the history of the Tory Party.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Dura_Ace said:

    I'm sitting in my local pub right now (last day of paternity leave) and the five locals at the bar are discussing the boats across the channel *right this minute* and spitting teeth about it.

    This is cutting through. Hugely.

    I took the Ukrainians to Waitrose for baking supplies this morning (every day is the Great Ukrainian Bake Off in our house). Two old yentas at the checkout were going on about that woman in Kent who found an informal immigrant in her front room demanding to be taken to Manchester. They were fucking furious about the situation.
    Somehow I struggle to imagine you patiently doing bake off with your houseguests everyday.
    I just work on the logisitics fulfilment of ingredients then retreat to my office or the workshop. I occasionally assist with the clean up before Mrs DA gets home as the kitchen sometimes looks like that steelworks in Mariupol by the end.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    The Tories threw out Truss after a few weeks. It was the voters who told Labour to throw out Corbyn in 2017. Labour ignored them - the they/thems of this world moved to a parallel universe where Corbyn won. So the voters had to tell them twice, and how.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664
    In another universe, Sunak appointed Mordaunt to the HO, the ERG kicked off a bit, but the honeymoon period was still underway.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    Nearly November.

    Time for Mordaunt's term as PM now I assume?
    Who bagsied December? Does anyone remember....?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited October 2022

    A thought on the polls and the 'narrative'. Opinium has given some column inches on 'comeback' from the usual suspects, but tonights Redfield might be interesting. Thursday saw almost no movement compared to the others and indeed Redfield are now the upper end outlier, more than even People Polling who have been consistently upper end. So, if the general bounce is ongoing we might see a double effect movement tonight reinforcing the Sun etc 'comeback kid' stuff. Conversely, another high 20s to 30 lead and its 'comeback stalls, sack Suella!'
    The Thursdsy poll had over a 20 point lead for Labour with over 65s, higher than the 50 to 65 lead which stuck out like a sore thumb........ be interesting to see what turns out
    Generally this week should show us if we are amidst a bounce or one has occured and ceased/peaked

    We do say on PB big political events take two weeks or more before they clearly register in polls - so we should still be watching, asking right questions, and reserving judgement as yet, like punters do with watched horses in horse racing.

    The right questions are not the size of lead, there’s too much LLG in size of lead, it’s the Tory share recovery to watch for. Before the Starmergasm, Truss had some consistent 35s from Techne and a 34 from Opinium. To what extent does Sunak Honeymoon raise the Tory polling average is still the measure to be watching.

    The trouble with using Opinium as part of comeback narrative is the swingback distorts the average and impression - what they actually got from voters was likely something around 25 for Tory share before swingback, that sort of return has to be higher in the next Opinium for a real Honeymoon bounce, ditto all the other firms.

    So when new polls come this week, ignore the lead, the “this is the Tory score last time, this is it this time” is the only thing to measure in this CRUCIAL couple of months in the history of the Tory Party.
    I partly agree, however i think the lead is important too, it defines the scale of challenge to prevent majority, be largest party etc, as are numvers of seitchers and 2019 vote retention .
    I agree they need to get into the 30s to help with avoiding disaster downstream though
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    Do you think the prime minister Rishi Sunak should or should not attend the COP27 climate change conference in Egypt in November?

    Definitely should: 36%
    Probably should: 25%
    Probably should not: 11%
    Definitely should not: 9%

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1587046726921224192

    Ask the same question about attending the local village fete. We probably want our politicians to do everything.
    Or it could be, despite right wing media being very stridently opposed to Net Zero, no matter how you phrase the polling question vast majority of Tory voters support Net Zero, so Sunak has arsed this one up.

    Unforced Error from Captain Unforced Error!
    This is something that would be described as an unforced error by his haters no matter what he did.
    You don’t regard no to COP becoming yes to COP as a u-turn?
    Not what I said. Thought I haven't seen anything beyond "he can't go" "changing" to "he'd like to go but it might not be possible".

    What I said is: if he'd said from the outset he was going, you'd have called that an unforced error because he should have stayed home dealing with more urgent domestic matters.
    Nope. myself and about 80% of people took it as obvious he’d pop in, would not have batted an eye lid if he done so, especially after the hard work and national pride put into recent UK COP.

    It only become a story to criticise him with when he made it one, by pandering to the vocal right wing minority who loath Net Zero policy.

    That those so vocal in their loathing of Net Zero are in such minority even on the right, and weak and wobbly Sunak arsed up pandering to them, is the only take out from this U Turn story.
    I mean, the bit in bold is just entirely nonsense.
    No. That is exactly Sunak’s whole modus operandi as PM, do wake up and realise what’s really going on, you are so far back down the road on UK politics you can’t even be seen with binoculars.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259
    eek said:

    I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.

    If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.

    Its not all Macron. We could start by honouring our international obligations and reopen legal routes for people to apply for asylum from all the countries where we have removed it. Resource up the system properly. Rejoin the international community in collectively managing refugees.

    In short, the right could grow up. Don't hold your breath.
    Oh God, why do we always come back here.

    You will never get a hearing for "safe and legal routes" - ever - until you get control of the border. Because otherwise all people will hear is: I want to make it even easier to come here for anyone who wants to come.

    Why is this so difficult to understand?
    Until we offer a safe and legal route - people will continue to come the illegal way. Only when we have a suitable safe and legal method of applying for residency will the problem be solved.

    Heck the fact a lot of the migrants happen to be Albanians who end up working on county lines and similar illegal schemes tells you that no approach is going to 100% work as many peoples desire is to disappear as soon as they arrive in the country. Not even fining employers £x0,000 will solve that side of the issue
    I am assuming the link on eligibility is broadly aligned with international criteria

    But how do all these Albanians who are reported to be coming qualify for asylum?

    https://www.gov.uk/claim-asylum/eligibility



  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    Do you think the prime minister Rishi Sunak should or should not attend the COP27 climate change conference in Egypt in November?

    Definitely should: 36%
    Probably should: 25%
    Probably should not: 11%
    Definitely should not: 9%

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1587046726921224192

    Ask the same question about attending the local village fete. We probably want our politicians to do everything.
    Or it could be, despite right wing media being very stridently opposed to Net Zero, no matter how you phrase the polling question vast majority of Tory voters support Net Zero, so Sunak has arsed this one up.

    Unforced Error from Captain Unforced Error!
    This is something that would be described as an unforced error by his haters no matter what he did.
    You don’t regard no to COP becoming yes to COP as a u-turn?
    Not what I said. Thought I haven't seen anything beyond "he can't go" "changing" to "he'd like to go but it might not be possible".

    What I said is: if he'd said from the outset he was going, you'd have called that an unforced error because he should have stayed home dealing with more urgent domestic matters.
    Nope. myself and about 80% of people took it as obvious he’d pop in, would not have batted an eye lid if he done so, especially after the hard work and national pride put into recent UK COP.

    It only become a story to criticise him with when he made it one, by pandering to the vocal right wing minority who loath Net Zero policy.

    That those so vocal in their loathing of Net Zero are in such minority even on the right, and weak and wobbly Sunak arsed up pandering to them, is the only take out from this U Turn story.
    well Greta thinks its a load of twaddle and is not going - is he a right wing extremist?
    He?

    She's a she isn't, er, she?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259

    malcolmg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    NOM 2.3
    Lab Maj 2.4
    Con Maj 5.6

    Awful figures for Labour when they have a 25 point lead in the polls.
    Agreed. Punters are clearly sceptical about Starmer.
    I'm not a Labour supporter but, if I were, I'd note that the mismatch between polling and betting indicates that, while punters may be sceptical about Starmer, voters aren't. And I'd rather it was that way around.

    More realistically, it indicates that punters (probably correctly) believe Sunak is a more credible opponent to Starmer than Truss was, and the 25% lead (more than half of which opened up rather quickly in recent weeks due to consistently appalling news for the Conservatives) is likely to narrow. That isn't a judgment on Starmer as such.
    Actually voters are. Votes in local by elections taken in the round do not support the 25 point lead poll respondees give
    How is your certain call from last night that Bolsonaro will be re-elected looking?

    #theoracleofnorfolk
    I was slightly off, he didnt. My failed prediction fortunately has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the facts that data provide however
    You weren't 'slightly off', you were completely wrong, predicting the outcome opposite to the actual outcome. Which would have been fine (it happens to us all) except that you predicted it with the certainty of someone forecasting the sun will rise tomorrow.
    He shagged one sheep, give him a break
    One? I shag one before breakfast, Malcolm, by evening i've desecrated the flock
    I’m not going to make a filthy joke based on your user name…

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    A thought on the polls and the 'narrative'. Opinium has given some column inches on 'comeback' from the usual suspects, but tonights Redfield might be interesting. Thursday saw almost no movement compared to the others and indeed Redfield are now the upper end outlier, more than even People Polling who have been consistently upper end. So, if the general bounce is ongoing we might see a double effect movement tonight reinforcing the Sun etc 'comeback kid' stuff. Conversely, another high 20s to 30 lead and its 'comeback stalls, sack Suella!'
    The Thursdsy poll had over a 20 point lead for Labour with over 65s, higher than the 50 to 65 lead which stuck out like a sore thumb........ be interesting to see what turns out
    Generally this week should show us if we are amidst a bounce or one has occured and ceased/peaked

    Subsamples are meaningless – you should know this by now.

    If you want to know more about it, as Stuart Dickson about his 'time in the wilderness'.
    Yes of course they are, but it still sticks out like a sore thumb. I'm not drawing any assumption from it, its just one of those things that make you sit up.
    Remove that setence and i wouldnt be changing any of the other words.
    It was a good post in every other respect, until you raised OGH's bete noire – still I have been on your back too much today so I will simply offer a friendly warning: "Remember Stuart. And beware."
  • 'Bounces' tend to last a month and usually thats it. Though Johnson and May saw some movement up to three months. Generally speaking the peak of the 'bounce' proves better than the new PM ends up performing at the following GE, sometimes much MUCH better.

    Advancing to a defecit of 16 for the Cons is pretty useless. They need to be looking at regaining the lead before this 'bounce' wears off. Anything less than that and the way to retaining power is pretty much closed to them.

    Also please recall that this 'bounce' is compared to Truss. We should perhaps compare the position once it settles down to the position when Johnson's Ministers were resigning en masse. At the moment the Govt is some way off getting back to that already pretty dire position.

    However, it must be true that a Lab lead so quickly gained is vulnerable to being very easily lost. Denied Corbyn-style Lab own-goals the answer for the Govt is clearly quiet competence. Which makes that appointment of Braverman such a foolish and frankly amateurish mistake. Mr Sunak can't afford many more of those - even this far out.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    A thought on the polls and the 'narrative'. Opinium has given some column inches on 'comeback' from the usual suspects, but tonights Redfield might be interesting. Thursday saw almost no movement compared to the others and indeed Redfield are now the upper end outlier, more than even People Polling who have been consistently upper end. So, if the general bounce is ongoing we might see a double effect movement tonight reinforcing the Sun etc 'comeback kid' stuff. Conversely, another high 20s to 30 lead and its 'comeback stalls, sack Suella!'
    The Thursdsy poll had over a 20 point lead for Labour with over 65s, higher than the 50 to 65 lead which stuck out like a sore thumb........ be interesting to see what turns out
    Generally this week should show us if we are amidst a bounce or one has occured and ceased/peaked

    Subsamples are meaningless – you should know this by now.

    If you want to know more about it, as Stuart Dickson about his 'time in the wilderness'.
    Yes of course they are, but it still sticks out like a sore thumb. I'm not drawing any assumption from it, its just one of those things that make you sit up.
    Remove that setence and i wouldnt be changing any of the other words.
    It was a good post in every other respect, until you raised OGH's bete noire – still I have been on your back too much today so I will simply offer a friendly warning: "Remember Stuart. And beware."
    Noted and brought aboard the Woolietrain
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    malcolmg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    NOM 2.3
    Lab Maj 2.4
    Con Maj 5.6

    Awful figures for Labour when they have a 25 point lead in the polls.
    Agreed. Punters are clearly sceptical about Starmer.
    I'm not a Labour supporter but, if I were, I'd note that the mismatch between polling and betting indicates that, while punters may be sceptical about Starmer, voters aren't. And I'd rather it was that way around.

    More realistically, it indicates that punters (probably correctly) believe Sunak is a more credible opponent to Starmer than Truss was, and the 25% lead (more than half of which opened up rather quickly in recent weeks due to consistently appalling news for the Conservatives) is likely to narrow. That isn't a judgment on Starmer as such.
    Actually voters are. Votes in local by elections taken in the round do not support the 25 point lead poll respondees give
    How is your certain call from last night that Bolsonaro will be re-elected looking?

    #theoracleofnorfolk
    I was slightly off, he didnt. My failed prediction fortunately has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the facts that data provide however
    You weren't 'slightly off', you were completely wrong, predicting the outcome opposite to the actual outcome. Which would have been fine (it happens to us all) except that you predicted it with the certainty of someone forecasting the sun will rise tomorrow.
    He shagged one sheep, give him a break
    One? I shag one before breakfast, Malcolm, by evening i've desecrated the flock
    I’m not going to make a filthy joke based on your user name…

    Why not? I would.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    eek said:

    I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.

    If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.

    Its not all Macron. We could start by honouring our international obligations and reopen legal routes for people to apply for asylum from all the countries where we have removed it. Resource up the system properly. Rejoin the international community in collectively managing refugees.

    In short, the right could grow up. Don't hold your breath.
    Oh God, why do we always come back here.

    You will never get a hearing for "safe and legal routes" - ever - until you get control of the border. Because otherwise all people will hear is: I want to make it even easier to come here for anyone who wants to come.

    Why is this so difficult to understand?
    Until we offer a safe and legal route - people will continue to come the illegal way. Only when we have a suitable safe and legal method of applying for residency will the problem be solved.

    Heck the fact a lot of the migrants happen to be Albanians who end up working on county lines and similar illegal schemes tells you that no approach is going to 100% work as many peoples desire is to disappear as soon as they arrive in the country. Not even fining employers £x0,000 will solve that side of the issue
    I am assuming the link on eligibility is broadly aligned with international criteria

    But how do all these Albanians who are reported to be coming qualify for asylum?

    https://www.gov.uk/claim-asylum/eligibility



    Not a clue - but the first question is are they actually claiming asylum or is that just a desperate attempt to stay if caught
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Scott_xP said:

    🚨 Hearing preparation is now under way for Rishi Sunak to attend COP27
    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1587075621452189697

    just as Gretta pulls out! Honestly I dont care whether he goes or not (as does most of the silent majority) but FGS show some backbone and make a decision and stick to it
    Not even a week in, and you are encouraging the Daily Star to lead national search for Sunak’s backbone.

    You are spot on actually, not a bit like the politically out of touch Driver.
  • novanova Posts: 692
    Scott_xP said:

    🔵 Suella Braverman still has the "full confidence" of Rishi Sunak in the wake of revelations around her use of emails, Downing Street said this lunchtime.

    Read the latest on our politics live blog ⬇️
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/31/rishi-sunak-cop27-news-suella-braverman-security-breach-latest/ https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1587071979911368704/photo/1

    One bonus of the ridiculous infighting and 3 PMs in 2 months is that we get "No 10" saying they don't know why "No 10" did something.
  • This thread

    has the full confidence of the Prime Minister

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,259
    MaxPB said:

    Taz said:

    MaxPB said:

    The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.

    Alternatively we can accept people will come here and set up processing centres in France to process their applications. Give passage to those approved and those who,don’t, if they come over by other means, just return them.
    We have legal routes of migration. If they don't qualify then it's hard no. We need to end the pull factor and make the trip completely uneconomic. A huge crackdown on illegal work, a deal with France to end the boat crossings and ensuring legitimate migrants are given access to legal routes of migration. The default approach should be deportation for all illegal immigrants with no right of appeal and barring that person from ever being able to legally migrate to the UK. Make the cost of illegal immigration extremely high.
    So let’s say they have kids with a British citizen while here. Aren’t you depriving British children of either (a) a parent or (b) the ability to live in the UK?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Wait, the two polls done of Indiana show a GOP lead of 3 pts and 2 pts respectively?

    Isn't that completely insane for a mid term with an unpopular Dem president?

    Is there "local reasons" as to why this would be the case?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    I reckon this means lied to the House.

    Let us not forget that IIRC this woman was Johnson's choice for Attorney General. You couldn't make it up.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    DougSeal said:

    eek said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    MaxPB said:

    The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.

    That's the deal that needs to be struck.
    I don't think there is any amount of money that would make that politically acceptable to France - which is not a backwards shithole like Rwanda that can be bought off.

    So the price would have to be a political prize greather than just large amounts of money. Fucked if I know what that is.

    Tow backs that did not breach French territorual waters but without French consent would 100% work as a deterrent but tories lack the resolve to do it.
    Border Force staff would refuse to do the tow backs.
    Because no-one wishes to put people into jeopardy which is what you are doing if you tow a boat and leave it outside land

    The point is that there are zero easy options here as you demonstrated with your attack on my comment regarding setting up application centers closer to the places where valid immigrants are coming from
    "Attack on your comment" = disagreeing with you.

    Australia has no such issues. However, the metastasising tumour that is Wokery has now taken a firm hold amongst all branches of our public sector and quango institutions so they'd simply refuse to do it.

    A clear out and reset might work.
    Refusing to kill people or break the law now falls inside the boundaries of this nebulous and undefined thing called “wokery”.

    Saying, "what does Wokery mean?" is simply Libtard code for disagreeing such a thing exists, because they lack the self-awareness to see that anyone could possibly or reasonably disagree with them.
    As you mention self-awareness, although you can't see it yourself, you are an obsessive as far as the "woke" debate is concerned.

    IIRC you became apoplectic about an advertising sign in a railway station that 99% of the population walk straight past without batting an eyelid.

    "Anti-wokery" as far as I am concerned is something that people bang on about to deflect from the fact that they don't have any answers to the real problems that people face.
This discussion has been closed.