UPDATE: A source close to Priti Patel has told HuffPost UK that she signed off on hotel accommodation for asylum seekers until she resigned as home secretary last month as she had a statutory duty to do so
Trump’s address to the people of Brazil, shortly before Bolsonaro’s loss: “He has my complete and total endorsement. Don’t lose him. Don’t let that happen. It would not be good for your country.” https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1586877698168836097
Bolsanaro did lose but it's the sort of close loss you can keep the flame going from
c.f. Indy ref; Remain; Sunak; Trump
My take was rather that Trump intervened so unambiguously in a foreign election.
Roman shipwrecks are a big key to understanding the universe.
Lead is a great radiation shield, but refined lead has small amounts of radioactive ²¹⁰Pb isotopes that mess up advanced neutrino detectors. Only lead from Roman shipwrecks is old enough for the impurities to decay. https://twitter.com/emollick/status/1586852726234816512
A similar reason steel from the German fleet in Scapa Flow is used in scientific machines as they were sunk before the first atomic explosion
That's something that my dad (who as a kid saw one of the salvaged battlecruisers towed into the Forth for scrapping) told me. I idly speculated that since almost all the ships were raised pre the nuclear age their metal would have been irradiated like all the rest. Can't remember what his reply was, probably no one likes a smart arse.
Its always been impossible to defend on any economic or social grounds.
What has now arrived is the point where the damage it is doing is no longer possible to hide.
Pinko stuff from the torygraph, headline
"Vulnerable pensioners must be protected, but the 27pc of retired people who are millionaires should share in the country's financial pain"
small print
"But given the UK’s dicey financial situation, it is near impossible to defend an inflation-linked uplift for the state pensions belonging to another cohort: the 27pc of over-65s who live in millionaire households.
big difference, a millionaire household includes 2 people living in a 600,000 pound house which they can't eat or burn for fuel, with 200,000 each in pension and other assets. Typical telegraph readers in other words.
Again the morons don't mention that those pensioners with any money are paying >40% tax otherwise they are living on 10K but have a nice house they paid for. What a shithole of a country where the idle greedy want to rob pensioners who have worked hard all their lives.
This argument has followed a graceful 35-year arc, beginning with a spasm of concern for little old ladies in four-bedroom houses who couldn't afford their council rates. The villain of the piece is the open-ended top bracket of John Major's flawed council tax settlement that leaves million-pound houses paying as much as 10-million pound mansions across the fields (declaration of interest due here).
Why is John Major the only villain?
Council Tax is devolved -- if Labour or the SNP wish to do something about this, they can do it right now.
Why should they do that? Why take the political grief of setting new local government funding which will be bad (because there is no good, it will always piss off large numbers of people). Instead simply sit back and blame the Tories in Westminster.
Because it is the right thing to do? Because they went into politics to change things for the better?
(In fact, Drakeford is consulting on changes in Wales, including extra bands at the top and abolishing the single person discount, though I suspect he will back down in the end).
The fact remains: Council Tax banding is devolved. Labour & the SNP could do something now, if the will was there.
We don't just have to blame John Major, who left office a quarter of a century ago.
There is a full scale political crisis for the home secretary Suella Braverman and new PM Rishi Sunak in the failure to prevent the Manston migrant processing centre being totally overwhelmed by asylum seekers. Here are the important facts. 1/20 https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1587022185633284096
As there is a very specific and acute Albanian element to this debacle, has the Home Office even reached out to the Albanian government? We could announce a hard line "if you are Albanian we deport you straight back to Tirana" and worry about the legalities later. To do that, the Albanian authorities need to agree to receive their people back.
Have we asked? Or is co-operating with the forrin beneath our newly sovrin Brexity status?
I agree, this is the solution.
British people are actually quite generous and accommodating - just look at the response to refugees from Hong Kong and Ukraine - but they want control. They hate criminality, queue jumping and people taking the piss and third sector organisations making excuses for it and saying the only issue is we don't make it easier for them. Intergovernmental arrangements are needed with Albania and, quite frankly, we need to make some choices about Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan too - the other big sources of boat passengers.
It really is a totally bubbled conversation and it needs an international solution.
UPDATE: A source close to Priti Patel has told HuffPost UK that she signed off on hotel accommodation for asylum seekers until she resigned as home secretary last month as she had a statutory duty to do so
What is this pb Tory obsession with the triple lock? The last time the triple lock was suspended, it was the wages component that was jettisoned, but making that particular double lock permanent would not save money because currently it is inflation that is highest.
Politically, the Prime Minister has just made great play of the 2019 manifesto and its mandate belonging to this government. That included the triple lock.
The state pension of £10,000 a year is not generous; 20 per cent of pensioners are below the poverty line, and the latter group (as well as, one suspects, the next cohort along) need to be protected from inflation.
I think it's because it's a protection which is not applied to all the state benefits that we provide to help those below the poverty line (there is no Universal Credit Triple Lock), and it looks a bit politically suspect that the one group who are getting this protection are voters who largely vote Tory...
On balance I agree that because the triple lock only applies to the comparatively small state pension it's not as egregious a bung as its opponents sometimes make it out to be -- but if the government believes in the principle of sheltering those in poverty from the inflationary issues that are hitting them much harder than the well off, it ought to be more even-handed about doing it for all benefits, and probably should consider it on means-tested benefits before universal-availability ones.
What bollox, only a numpty would suggest all pensioners vote Tory. Most other benefits are also supposed to eb temporary not lifelong, obviously some exceptions such as disability.
Only a numpty would read "who largely vote Tory" and say it suggests that "all vote Tory"...
Despite my lazy reply your comment was pish , a figment of your greed and lack of imagination. I also presume you were talking solely about England as well.
UPDATE: A source close to Priti Patel has told HuffPost UK that she signed off on hotel accommodation for asylum seekers until she resigned as home secretary last month as she had a statutory duty to do so
There is a full scale political crisis for the home secretary Suella Braverman and new PM Rishi Sunak in the failure to prevent the Manston migrant processing centre being totally overwhelmed by asylum seekers. Here are the important facts. 1/20 https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1587022185633284096
As there is a very specific and acute Albanian element to this debacle, has the Home Office even reached out to the Albanian government? We could announce a hard line "if you are Albanian we deport you straight back to Tirana" and worry about the legalities later. To do that, the Albanian authorities need to agree to receive their people back.
Have we asked? Or is co-operating with the forrin beneath our newly sovrin Brexity status?
I agree, this is the solution.
British people are actually quite generous and accommodating - just look at the response to refugees from Hong Kong and Ukraine - but they want control. They hate criminality, queue jumping and people taking the piss and third sector organisations making excuses for it and saying the only issue is we don't make it easier for them. Intergovernmental arrangements are needed with Albania and, quite frankly, we need to make some choices about Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan too - the other big sources of boat passengers.
It really is a totally bubbled conversation and it needs an international solution.
The simple reality which "no forrin" Tory Brexiteers deny is that there is No Legal Route to claim asylum from a stack of countries. Including Afghanistan which is appalling considering what we did in that country and the way we just abandoned them.
So we create the boat problem by lying to morons that the country is full (it isn't) and that we take lots of refugees (we don't). Even where we clearly need international co-operation they don't. Because their version of Brexit is that we make the rules and should just be allowed to do what we want and tell the forrin what is happening.
You would imagine that Albania would want to bring so many of its own people home. It is no longer the hermit state of old, and when so many people leave you can't regenerate as so many other poor eastern European countries have done. So a deal could be done, surely.
Ukraine claims it shot down 44 out of 50+ cruise missiles sent it way. It is not clear how much bigger than 50! It would still appear that the air defence system has improved substantially.
44 Russian missiles out of 50+ were shot down by #Ukraine’s air defence this morning.
Russia launched missiles & drones that hit 10 regions, damaging 18 objects of civilian critical infrastructure.
What is this pb Tory obsession with the triple lock? The last time the triple lock was suspended, it was the wages component that was jettisoned, but making that particular double lock permanent would not save money because currently it is inflation that is highest.
Politically, the Prime Minister has just made great play of the 2019 manifesto and its mandate belonging to this government. That included the triple lock.
The state pension of £10,000 a year is not generous; 20 per cent of pensioners are below the poverty line, and the latter group (as well as, one suspects, the next cohort along) need to be protected from inflation.
I think it's because it's a protection which is not applied to all the state benefits that we provide to help those below the poverty line (there is no Universal Credit Triple Lock), and it looks a bit politically suspect that the one group who are getting this protection are voters who largely vote Tory...
On balance I agree that because the triple lock only applies to the comparatively small state pension it's not as egregious a bung as its opponents sometimes make it out to be -- but if the government believes in the principle of sheltering those in poverty from the inflationary issues that are hitting them much harder than the well off, it ought to be more even-handed about doing it for all benefits, and probably should consider it on means-tested benefits before universal-availability ones.
The price for maintaining the triple lock is that National Insurance should be payable by those of pensionable ag, and then allow the combining of income tax and NI.
Awful figures for Labour when they have a 25 point lead in the polls.
Agreed. Punters are clearly sceptical about Starmer.
I'm not a Labour supporter but, if I were, I'd note that the mismatch between polling and betting indicates that, while punters may be sceptical about Starmer, voters aren't. And I'd rather it was that way around.
More realistically, it indicates that punters (probably correctly) believe Sunak is a more credible opponent to Starmer than Truss was, and the 25% lead (more than half of which opened up rather quickly in recent weeks due to consistently appalling news for the Conservatives) is likely to narrow. That isn't a judgment on Starmer as such.
There is a full scale political crisis for the home secretary Suella Braverman and new PM Rishi Sunak in the failure to prevent the Manston migrant processing centre being totally overwhelmed by asylum seekers. Here are the important facts. 1/20 https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1587022185633284096
As there is a very specific and acute Albanian element to this debacle, has the Home Office even reached out to the Albanian government? We could announce a hard line "if you are Albanian we deport you straight back to Tirana" and worry about the legalities later. To do that, the Albanian authorities need to agree to receive their people back.
Have we asked? Or is co-operating with the forrin beneath our newly sovrin Brexity status?
I agree, this is the solution.
British people are actually quite generous and accommodating - just look at the response to refugees from Hong Kong and Ukraine - but they want control. They hate criminality, queue jumping and people taking the piss and third sector organisations making excuses for it and saying the only issue is we don't make it easier for them. Intergovernmental arrangements are needed with Albania and, quite frankly, we need to make some choices about Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan too - the other big sources of boat passengers.
It really is a totally bubbled conversation and it needs an international solution.
The simple reality which "no forrin" Tory Brexiteers deny is that there is No Legal Route to claim asylum from a stack of countries. Including Afghanistan which is appalling considering what we did in that country and the way we just abandoned them.
So we create the boat problem by lying to morons that the country is full (it isn't) and that we take lots of refugees (we don't). Even where we clearly need international co-operation they don't. Because their version of Brexit is that we make the rules and should just be allowed to do what we want and tell the forrin what is happening.
You would imagine that Albania would want to bring so many of its own people home. It is no longer the hermit state of old, and when so many people leave you can't regenerate as so many other poor eastern European countries have done. So a deal could be done, surely.
Just a gentle tip: I like some of your posts but every time you put "no forrin" I stop reading.
What is this pb Tory obsession with the triple lock? The last time the triple lock was suspended, it was the wages component that was jettisoned, but making that particular double lock permanent would not save money because currently it is inflation that is highest.
Politically, the Prime Minister has just made great play of the 2019 manifesto and its mandate belonging to this government. That included the triple lock.
The state pension of £10,000 a year is not generous; 20 per cent of pensioners are below the poverty line, and the latter group (as well as, one suspects, the next cohort along) need to be protected from inflation.
I think it's because it's a protection which is not applied to all the state benefits that we provide to help those below the poverty line (there is no Universal Credit Triple Lock), and it looks a bit politically suspect that the one group who are getting this protection are voters who largely vote Tory...
On balance I agree that because the triple lock only applies to the comparatively small state pension it's not as egregious a bung as its opponents sometimes make it out to be -- but if the government believes in the principle of sheltering those in poverty from the inflationary issues that are hitting them much harder than the well off, it ought to be more even-handed about doing it for all benefits, and probably should consider it on means-tested benefits before universal-availability ones.
The price for maintaining the triple lock is that National Insurance should be payable by those of pensionable ag, and then allow the combining of income tax and NI.
Merging NI and income tax isn’t that easy, NI is collected on a weekly / monthly basis (except in self employment cases) while income tax is collected on an annual basis
And that periodic NI payment is designed to maximize revenue
Awful figures for Labour when they have a 25 point lead in the polls.
Agreed. Punters are clearly sceptical about Starmer.
I'm not a Labour supporter but, if I were, I'd note that the mismatch between polling and betting indicates that, while punters may be sceptical about Starmer, voters aren't. And I'd rather it was that way around.
More realistically, it indicates that punters (probably correctly) believe Sunak is a more credible opponent to Starmer than Truss was, and the 25% lead (more than half of which opened up rather quickly in recent weeks due to consistently appalling news for the Conservatives) is likely to narrow. That isn't a judgment on Starmer as such.
Actually voters are. Votes in local by elections taken in the round do not support the 25 point lead poll respondees give
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
Awful figures for Labour when they have a 25 point lead in the polls.
Agreed. Punters are clearly sceptical about Starmer.
I'm not a Labour supporter but, if I were, I'd note that the mismatch between polling and betting indicates that, while punters may be sceptical about Starmer, voters aren't. And I'd rather it was that way around.
More realistically, it indicates that punters (probably correctly) believe Sunak is a more credible opponent to Starmer than Truss was, and the 25% lead (more than half of which opened up rather quickly in recent weeks due to consistently appalling news for the Conservatives) is likely to narrow. That isn't a judgment on Starmer as such.
Actually voters are. Votes in local by elections taken in the round do not support the 25 point lead poll respondees give
How is your certain call from last night that Bolsonaro will be re-elected looking?
There is a full scale political crisis for the home secretary Suella Braverman and new PM Rishi Sunak in the failure to prevent the Manston migrant processing centre being totally overwhelmed by asylum seekers. Here are the important facts. 1/20 https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1587022185633284096
As there is a very specific and acute Albanian element to this debacle, has the Home Office even reached out to the Albanian government? We could announce a hard line "if you are Albanian we deport you straight back to Tirana" and worry about the legalities later. To do that, the Albanian authorities need to agree to receive their people back.
Have we asked? Or is co-operating with the forrin beneath our newly sovrin Brexity status?
I agree, this is the solution.
British people are actually quite generous and accommodating - just look at the response to refugees from Hong Kong and Ukraine - but they want control. They hate criminality, queue jumping and people taking the piss and third sector organisations making excuses for it and saying the only issue is we don't make it easier for them. Intergovernmental arrangements are needed with Albania and, quite frankly, we need to make some choices about Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan too - the other big sources of boat passengers.
It really is a totally bubbled conversation and it needs an international solution.
The simple reality which "no forrin" Tory Brexiteers deny is that there is No Legal Route to claim asylum from a stack of countries. Including Afghanistan which is appalling considering what we did in that country and the way we just abandoned them.
So we create the boat problem by lying to morons that the country is full (it isn't) and that we take lots of refugees (we don't). Even where we clearly need international co-operation they don't. Because their version of Brexit is that we make the rules and should just be allowed to do what we want and tell the forrin what is happening.
You would imagine that Albania would want to bring so many of its own people home. It is no longer the hermit state of old, and when so many people leave you can't regenerate as so many other poor eastern European countries have done. So a deal could be done, surely.
Just a gentle tip: I like some of your posts but every time you put "no forrin" I stop reading.
Why? That is the mentality of the wazzocks driving this policy. They do not want foreigners here. Thats it. They brought in a points-based migration system and run it so that no matter how desperate the labour shortages they don't fill them. They run a refugee system that allows zero applications then blame the people coming in boats.
When the jingoistic wing of Tory members want to grow up, I will be able to spell the word properly. Until then its calling out their baseless bigotry.
Trump’s address to the people of Brazil, shortly before Bolsonaro’s loss: “He has my complete and total endorsement. Don’t lose him. Don’t let that happen. It would not be good for your country.” https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1586877698168836097
Bolsanaro did lose but it's the sort of close loss you can keep the flame going from
c.f. Indy ref; Remain; Sunak; Trump
My take was rather that Trump intervened so unambiguously in a foreign election.
There's a weird body of thinking on PB that defeats for hard-right populists in major elections are good news for hard-right populists in hypothetical future elections
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
Its not all Macron. We could start by honouring our international obligations and reopen legal routes for people to apply for asylum from all the countries where we have removed it. Resource up the system properly. Rejoin the international community in collectively managing refugees.
In short, the right could grow up. Don't hold your breath.
Awful figures for Labour when they have a 25 point lead in the polls.
Agreed. Punters are clearly sceptical about Starmer.
I'm not a Labour supporter but, if I were, I'd note that the mismatch between polling and betting indicates that, while punters may be sceptical about Starmer, voters aren't. And I'd rather it was that way around.
More realistically, it indicates that punters (probably correctly) believe Sunak is a more credible opponent to Starmer than Truss was, and the 25% lead (more than half of which opened up rather quickly in recent weeks due to consistently appalling news for the Conservatives) is likely to narrow. That isn't a judgment on Starmer as such.
Actually voters are. Votes in local by elections taken in the round do not support the 25 point lead poll respondees give
How is your certain call from last night that Bolsonaro will be re-elected looking?
#theoracleofnorfolk
I was slightly off, he didnt. My failed prediction fortunately has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the facts that data provide however
There is a full scale political crisis for the home secretary Suella Braverman and new PM Rishi Sunak in the failure to prevent the Manston migrant processing centre being totally overwhelmed by asylum seekers. Here are the important facts. 1/20 https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1587022185633284096
As there is a very specific and acute Albanian element to this debacle, has the Home Office even reached out to the Albanian government? We could announce a hard line "if you are Albanian we deport you straight back to Tirana" and worry about the legalities later. To do that, the Albanian authorities need to agree to receive their people back.
Have we asked? Or is co-operating with the forrin beneath our newly sovrin Brexity status?
I agree, this is the solution.
British people are actually quite generous and accommodating - just look at the response to refugees from Hong Kong and Ukraine - but they want control. They hate criminality, queue jumping and people taking the piss and third sector organisations making excuses for it and saying the only issue is we don't make it easier for them. Intergovernmental arrangements are needed with Albania and, quite frankly, we need to make some choices about Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan too - the other big sources of boat passengers.
It really is a totally bubbled conversation and it needs an international solution.
The simple reality which "no forrin" Tory Brexiteers deny is that there is No Legal Route to claim asylum from a stack of countries. Including Afghanistan which is appalling considering what we did in that country and the way we just abandoned them.
So we create the boat problem by lying to morons that the country is full (it isn't) and that we take lots of refugees (we don't). Even where we clearly need international co-operation they don't. Because their version of Brexit is that we make the rules and should just be allowed to do what we want and tell the forrin what is happening.
You would imagine that Albania would want to bring so many of its own people home. It is no longer the hermit state of old, and when so many people leave you can't regenerate as so many other poor eastern European countries have done. So a deal could be done, surely.
Just a gentle tip: I like some of your posts but every time you put "no forrin" I stop reading.
Why? That is the mentality of the wazzocks driving this policy. They do not want foreigners here. Thats it. They brought in a points-based migration system and run it so that no matter how desperate the labour shortages they don't fill them. They run a refugee system that allows zero applications then blame the people coming in boats.
When the jingoistic wing of Tory members want to grow up, I will be able to spell the word properly. Until then its calling out their baseless bigotry.
It's a childish simplistic caricature that you keep pushing on here that has little basis in fact and prevents constructive debate.
I actually liked your post as I thought it was an interesting comment and I was keen to respond to it. Then you posted this nonsense.
If you continue I will keep scrolling past and ignoring such posts.
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
The length of the French border makes stopping things there impossible - remember we have already thrown millions for patrols on French beaches and they just move a few miles further down the beach
There is a full scale political crisis for the home secretary Suella Braverman and new PM Rishi Sunak in the failure to prevent the Manston migrant processing centre being totally overwhelmed by asylum seekers. Here are the important facts. 1/20 https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1587022185633284096
As there is a very specific and acute Albanian element to this debacle, has the Home Office even reached out to the Albanian government? We could announce a hard line "if you are Albanian we deport you straight back to Tirana" and worry about the legalities later. To do that, the Albanian authorities need to agree to receive their people back.
Have we asked? Or is co-operating with the forrin beneath our newly sovrin Brexity status?
I agree, this is the solution.
British people are actually quite generous and accommodating - just look at the response to refugees from Hong Kong and Ukraine - but they want control. They hate criminality, queue jumping and people taking the piss and third sector organisations making excuses for it and saying the only issue is we don't make it easier for them. Intergovernmental arrangements are needed with Albania and, quite frankly, we need to make some choices about Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan too - the other big sources of boat passengers.
It really is a totally bubbled conversation and it needs an international solution.
The simple reality which "no forrin" Tory Brexiteers deny is that there is No Legal Route to claim asylum from a stack of countries. Including Afghanistan which is appalling considering what we did in that country and the way we just abandoned them.
So we create the boat problem by lying to morons that the country is full (it isn't) and that we take lots of refugees (we don't). Even where we clearly need international co-operation they don't. Because their version of Brexit is that we make the rules and should just be allowed to do what we want and tell the forrin what is happening.
You would imagine that Albania would want to bring so many of its own people home. It is no longer the hermit state of old, and when so many people leave you can't regenerate as so many other poor eastern European countries have done. So a deal could be done, surely.
Just a gentle tip: I like some of your posts but every time you put "no forrin" I stop reading.
Awful figures for Labour when they have a 25 point lead in the polls.
Agreed. Punters are clearly sceptical about Starmer.
I'm not a Labour supporter but, if I were, I'd note that the mismatch between polling and betting indicates that, while punters may be sceptical about Starmer, voters aren't. And I'd rather it was that way around.
More realistically, it indicates that punters (probably correctly) believe Sunak is a more credible opponent to Starmer than Truss was, and the 25% lead (more than half of which opened up rather quickly in recent weeks due to consistently appalling news for the Conservatives) is likely to narrow. That isn't a judgment on Starmer as such.
Actually voters are. Votes in local by elections taken in the round do not support the 25 point lead poll respondees give
Local elections are probably voting on local issues with national issues not getting a look in
There is a full scale political crisis for the home secretary Suella Braverman and new PM Rishi Sunak in the failure to prevent the Manston migrant processing centre being totally overwhelmed by asylum seekers. Here are the important facts. 1/20 https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1587022185633284096
As there is a very specific and acute Albanian element to this debacle, has the Home Office even reached out to the Albanian government? We could announce a hard line "if you are Albanian we deport you straight back to Tirana" and worry about the legalities later. To do that, the Albanian authorities need to agree to receive their people back.
Have we asked? Or is co-operating with the forrin beneath our newly sovrin Brexity status?
I agree, this is the solution.
British people are actually quite generous and accommodating - just look at the response to refugees from Hong Kong and Ukraine - but they want control. They hate criminality, queue jumping and people taking the piss and third sector organisations making excuses for it and saying the only issue is we don't make it easier for them. Intergovernmental arrangements are needed with Albania and, quite frankly, we need to make some choices about Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan too - the other big sources of boat passengers.
It really is a totally bubbled conversation and it needs an international solution.
The simple reality which "no forrin" Tory Brexiteers deny is that there is No Legal Route to claim asylum from a stack of countries. Including Afghanistan which is appalling considering what we did in that country and the way we just abandoned them.
So we create the boat problem by lying to morons that the country is full (it isn't) and that we take lots of refugees (we don't). Even where we clearly need international co-operation they don't. Because their version of Brexit is that we make the rules and should just be allowed to do what we want and tell the forrin what is happening.
You would imagine that Albania would want to bring so many of its own people home. It is no longer the hermit state of old, and when so many people leave you can't regenerate as so many other poor eastern European countries have done. So a deal could be done, surely.
Just a gentle tip: I like some of your posts but every time you put "no forrin" I stop reading.
Why?
Because it makes you look like a tit.
If that were a rule here, we'd hardly ever hear from Sean at all....
What is this pb Tory obsession with the triple lock? The last time the triple lock was suspended, it was the wages component that was jettisoned, but making that particular double lock permanent would not save money because currently it is inflation that is highest.
Politically, the Prime Minister has just made great play of the 2019 manifesto and its mandate belonging to this government. That included the triple lock.
The state pension of £10,000 a year is not generous; 20 per cent of pensioners are below the poverty line, and the latter group (as well as, one suspects, the next cohort along) need to be protected from inflation.
I think it's because it's a protection which is not applied to all the state benefits that we provide to help those below the poverty line (there is no Universal Credit Triple Lock), and it looks a bit politically suspect that the one group who are getting this protection are voters who largely vote Tory...
On balance I agree that because the triple lock only applies to the comparatively small state pension it's not as egregious a bung as its opponents sometimes make it out to be -- but if the government believes in the principle of sheltering those in poverty from the inflationary issues that are hitting them much harder than the well off, it ought to be more even-handed about doing it for all benefits, and probably should consider it on means-tested benefits before universal-availability ones.
The price for maintaining the triple lock is that National Insurance should be payable by those of pensionable ag, and then allow the combining of income tax and NI.
Merging NI and income tax isn’t that easy, NI is collected on a weekly / monthly basis (except in self employment cases) while income tax is collected on an annual basis
And that periodic NI payment is designed to maximize revenue
No. In practical terms it is easy because these days payroll calculations are universally computerised. The objection to extending national insurance payments is political, in that national insurance is justified as a qualification for pensions, so you'd need to ditch that link first (or brazen it out, as New Labour did with the West Lothian Question).
There is a full scale political crisis for the home secretary Suella Braverman and new PM Rishi Sunak in the failure to prevent the Manston migrant processing centre being totally overwhelmed by asylum seekers. Here are the important facts. 1/20 https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1587022185633284096
As there is a very specific and acute Albanian element to this debacle, has the Home Office even reached out to the Albanian government? We could announce a hard line "if you are Albanian we deport you straight back to Tirana" and worry about the legalities later. To do that, the Albanian authorities need to agree to receive their people back.
Have we asked? Or is co-operating with the forrin beneath our newly sovrin Brexity status?
I agree, this is the solution.
British people are actually quite generous and accommodating - just look at the response to refugees from Hong Kong and Ukraine - but they want control. They hate criminality, queue jumping and people taking the piss and third sector organisations making excuses for it and saying the only issue is we don't make it easier for them. Intergovernmental arrangements are needed with Albania and, quite frankly, we need to make some choices about Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan too - the other big sources of boat passengers.
It really is a totally bubbled conversation and it needs an international solution.
The simple reality which "no forrin" Tory Brexiteers deny is that there is No Legal Route to claim asylum from a stack of countries. Including Afghanistan which is appalling considering what we did in that country and the way we just abandoned them.
So we create the boat problem by lying to morons that the country is full (it isn't) and that we take lots of refugees (we don't). Even where we clearly need international co-operation they don't. Because their version of Brexit is that we make the rules and should just be allowed to do what we want and tell the forrin what is happening.
You would imagine that Albania would want to bring so many of its own people home. It is no longer the hermit state of old, and when so many people leave you can't regenerate as so many other poor eastern European countries have done. So a deal could be done, surely.
Just a gentle tip: I like some of your posts but every time you put "no forrin" I stop reading.
Awful figures for Labour when they have a 25 point lead in the polls.
Agreed. Punters are clearly sceptical about Starmer.
I'm not a Labour supporter but, if I were, I'd note that the mismatch between polling and betting indicates that, while punters may be sceptical about Starmer, voters aren't. And I'd rather it was that way around.
More realistically, it indicates that punters (probably correctly) believe Sunak is a more credible opponent to Starmer than Truss was, and the 25% lead (more than half of which opened up rather quickly in recent weeks due to consistently appalling news for the Conservatives) is likely to narrow. That isn't a judgment on Starmer as such.
Actually voters are. Votes in local by elections taken in the round do not support the 25 point lead poll respondees give
Local elections are probably voting on local issues with national issues not getting a look in
If that were the case we wouldn't be able to track the broad national trends through them, we obviously can. Individual results will fall within 'local issues' which is why you take a look in the round which currently suggests Tory vote struggling badly but no obvious enthusiasm for Labour. Back of the envelope feels like between 2001 and 2005 in results terms, more toward 2001 but not the complete meltdown of the polls
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
The length of the French border makes stopping things there impossible - remember we have already thrown millions for patrols on French beaches and they just move a few miles further down the beach
I don't believe it's impossible.
The narrow part of the channel necessitates them targeting a short coastal strip, and the French are still intercepting 45-50%.
With drones and more patrols it could be much improved.
Even better for French flagged boats paid for by Britain with British border force agents to be stationed in French waters to tow them straight back to Calais.
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
Its not all Macron. We could start by honouring our international obligations and reopen legal routes for people to apply for asylum from all the countries where we have removed it. Resource up the system properly. Rejoin the international community in collectively managing refugees.
In short, the right could grow up. Don't hold your breath.
Oh God, why do we always come back here.
You will never get a hearing for "safe and legal routes" - ever - until you get control of the border. Because otherwise all people will hear is: I want to make it even easier to come here for anyone who wants to come.
Awful figures for Labour when they have a 25 point lead in the polls.
Agreed. Punters are clearly sceptical about Starmer.
I'm not a Labour supporter but, if I were, I'd note that the mismatch between polling and betting indicates that, while punters may be sceptical about Starmer, voters aren't. And I'd rather it was that way around.
More realistically, it indicates that punters (probably correctly) believe Sunak is a more credible opponent to Starmer than Truss was, and the 25% lead (more than half of which opened up rather quickly in recent weeks due to consistently appalling news for the Conservatives) is likely to narrow. That isn't a judgment on Starmer as such.
Actually voters are. Votes in local by elections taken in the round do not support the 25 point lead poll respondees give
How is your certain call from last night that Bolsonaro will be re-elected looking?
#theoracleofnorfolk
I was slightly off, he didnt. My failed prediction fortunately has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the facts that data provide however
You weren't 'slightly off', you were completely wrong, predicting the outcome opposite to the actual outcome. Which would have been fine (it happens to us all) except that you predicted it with the certainty of someone forecasting the sun will rise tomorrow.
Awful figures for Labour when they have a 25 point lead in the polls.
Agreed. Punters are clearly sceptical about Starmer.
I'm not a Labour supporter but, if I were, I'd note that the mismatch between polling and betting indicates that, while punters may be sceptical about Starmer, voters aren't. And I'd rather it was that way around.
More realistically, it indicates that punters (probably correctly) believe Sunak is a more credible opponent to Starmer than Truss was, and the 25% lead (more than half of which opened up rather quickly in recent weeks due to consistently appalling news for the Conservatives) is likely to narrow. That isn't a judgment on Starmer as such.
Actually voters are. Votes in local by elections taken in the round do not support the 25 point lead poll respondees give
How is your certain call from last night that Bolsonaro will be re-elected looking?
#theoracleofnorfolk
I was slightly off, he didnt. My failed prediction fortunately has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the facts that data provide however
You weren't 'slightly off', you were completely wrong, predicting the outcome opposite to the actual outcome. Which would have been fine (it happens to us all) except that you predicted it with the certainty of someone forecasting the sun will rise tomorrow.
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
It's really sad, given that most people will never even meet someone who has travelled across the channel in a boat, or have their life affected by them in any meaningful way.
There is a full scale political crisis for the home secretary Suella Braverman and new PM Rishi Sunak in the failure to prevent the Manston migrant processing centre being totally overwhelmed by asylum seekers. Here are the important facts. 1/20 https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1587022185633284096
As there is a very specific and acute Albanian element to this debacle, has the Home Office even reached out to the Albanian government? We could announce a hard line "if you are Albanian we deport you straight back to Tirana" and worry about the legalities later. To do that, the Albanian authorities need to agree to receive their people back.
Have we asked? Or is co-operating with the forrin beneath our newly sovrin Brexity status?
I agree, this is the solution.
British people are actually quite generous and accommodating - just look at the response to refugees from Hong Kong and Ukraine - but they want control. They hate criminality, queue jumping and people taking the piss and third sector organisations making excuses for it and saying the only issue is we don't make it easier for them. Intergovernmental arrangements are needed with Albania and, quite frankly, we need to make some choices about Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan too - the other big sources of boat passengers.
It really is a totally bubbled conversation and it needs an international solution.
The simple reality which "no forrin" Tory Brexiteers deny is that there is No Legal Route to claim asylum from a stack of countries. Including Afghanistan which is appalling considering what we did in that country and the way we just abandoned them.
So we create the boat problem by lying to morons that the country is full (it isn't) and that we take lots of refugees (we don't). Even where we clearly need international co-operation they don't. Because their version of Brexit is that we make the rules and should just be allowed to do what we want and tell the forrin what is happening.
You would imagine that Albania would want to bring so many of its own people home. It is no longer the hermit state of old, and when so many people leave you can't regenerate as so many other poor eastern European countries have done. So a deal could be done, surely.
Just a gentle tip: I like some of your posts but every time you put "no forrin" I stop reading.
Why? That is the mentality of the wazzocks driving this policy. They do not want foreigners here. Thats it. They brought in a points-based migration system and run it so that no matter how desperate the labour shortages they don't fill them. They run a refugee system that allows zero applications then blame the people coming in boats.
When the jingoistic wing of Tory members want to grow up, I will be able to spell the word properly. Until then its calling out their baseless bigotry.
It's a childish simplistic caricature that you keep pushing on here that has little basis in fact and prevents constructive debate.
I actually liked your post as I thought it was an interesting comment and I was keen to respond to it. Then you posted this nonsense.
If you continue I will keep scrolling past and ignoring such posts.
That is your choice. As you say, I raise interesting points. The issue is that you are refusing to engage the *driver* of how we got here which is the petty jingoism which drives the Brexit project.
You may not like me calling out the idiots who voted Brexit because they wanted less foreigners taking the jobs / benefits / school places - I personally don't like the people and their mentality.
Either way, we face it down and engage with it or we're back to scratching our heads as to why we have people firebombing in Dover and an illegal public health crisis at Manston.
Awful figures for Labour when they have a 25 point lead in the polls.
Agreed. Punters are clearly sceptical about Starmer.
I'm not a Labour supporter but, if I were, I'd note that the mismatch between polling and betting indicates that, while punters may be sceptical about Starmer, voters aren't. And I'd rather it was that way around.
More realistically, it indicates that punters (probably correctly) believe Sunak is a more credible opponent to Starmer than Truss was, and the 25% lead (more than half of which opened up rather quickly in recent weeks due to consistently appalling news for the Conservatives) is likely to narrow. That isn't a judgment on Starmer as such.
Actually voters are. Votes in local by elections taken in the round do not support the 25 point lead poll respondees give
How is your certain call from last night that Bolsonaro will be re-elected looking?
#theoracleofnorfolk
I was slightly off, he didnt. My failed prediction fortunately has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the facts that data provide however
You weren't 'slightly off', you were completely wrong, predicting the outcome opposite to the actual outcome. Which would have been fine (it happens to us all) except that you predicted it with the certainty of someone forecasting the sun will rise tomorrow.
He shagged one sheep, give him a break
One wonders whether, when he visits Norwich casino, he asks for his money back if he puts all his money on black and it comes up red. "I was only slightly wrong, croups, the next berth was black!"
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
It's really sad, given that most people will never even meet someone who has travelled across the channel in a boat, or have their life affected by them in any meaningful way.
I think it is an interesting reflection on how few problems the average Conservative supporter must have in their life that this it the main thing keeping them awake at night.
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
Its not all Macron. We could start by honouring our international obligations and reopen legal routes for people to apply for asylum from all the countries where we have removed it. Resource up the system properly. Rejoin the international community in collectively managing refugees.
In short, the right could grow up. Don't hold your breath.
Oh God, why do we always come back here.
You will never get a hearing for "safe and legal routes" - ever - until you get control of the border. Because otherwise all people will hear is: I want to make it even easier to come here for anyone who wants to come.
Why is this so difficult to understand?
It's because he does want it to be easier to come here for anyone who wants to come, and in his eyes anyone who disagrees is a racist sneering at "the forrin".
There is a full scale political crisis for the home secretary Suella Braverman and new PM Rishi Sunak in the failure to prevent the Manston migrant processing centre being totally overwhelmed by asylum seekers. Here are the important facts. 1/20 https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1587022185633284096
As there is a very specific and acute Albanian element to this debacle, has the Home Office even reached out to the Albanian government? We could announce a hard line "if you are Albanian we deport you straight back to Tirana" and worry about the legalities later. To do that, the Albanian authorities need to agree to receive their people back.
Have we asked? Or is co-operating with the forrin beneath our newly sovrin Brexity status?
I agree, this is the solution.
British people are actually quite generous and accommodating - just look at the response to refugees from Hong Kong and Ukraine - but they want control. They hate criminality, queue jumping and people taking the piss and third sector organisations making excuses for it and saying the only issue is we don't make it easier for them. Intergovernmental arrangements are needed with Albania and, quite frankly, we need to make some choices about Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan too - the other big sources of boat passengers.
It really is a totally bubbled conversation and it needs an international solution.
The simple reality which "no forrin" Tory Brexiteers deny is that there is No Legal Route to claim asylum from a stack of countries. Including Afghanistan which is appalling considering what we did in that country and the way we just abandoned them.
So we create the boat problem by lying to morons that the country is full (it isn't) and that we take lots of refugees (we don't). Even where we clearly need international co-operation they don't. Because their version of Brexit is that we make the rules and should just be allowed to do what we want and tell the forrin what is happening.
You would imagine that Albania would want to bring so many of its own people home. It is no longer the hermit state of old, and when so many people leave you can't regenerate as so many other poor eastern European countries have done. So a deal could be done, surely.
Just a gentle tip: I like some of your posts but every time you put "no forrin" I stop reading.
Why?
Because it makes you look like a tit.
From you I will take such observations under advisement.
Tell you what, I will spell foreign correctly for a while if we can all work out how we move public policy past the bigoted desires of a sizable minority of Tory voters / members who just want asylum seekers to go away and the likes of France to do as we tell them and respect the referendum.
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
Its not all Macron. We could start by honouring our international obligations and reopen legal routes for people to apply for asylum from all the countries where we have removed it. Resource up the system properly. Rejoin the international community in collectively managing refugees.
In short, the right could grow up. Don't hold your breath.
Oh God, why do we always come back here.
You will never get a hearing for "safe and legal routes" - ever - until you get control of the border. Because otherwise all people will hear is: I want to make it even easier to come here for anyone who wants to come.
Why is this so difficult to understand?
I honestly think this is an unsolvable problem, much like illegal migration to the US through the Mexican border. We can't make coming to the UK unattractive or the journey sufficiently dangerous in order to deter people. Nobody is going to want the sort of police state that would catch enough illegal migrants, and nobody is going to start sinking boats making the crossing.
So we will have tens of thousands of illegal migrants crossing the channel every year. I've not heard of any solution that sounds like it could work. The only thing that would stop illegal crossings is simply throwing the doors wide open for unlimited immigration.
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
It's really sad, given that most people will never even meet someone who has travelled across the channel in a boat, or have their life affected by them in any meaningful way.
On that theme, it's a mystery how one definitely unbalanced and in no way a terrorist person was inspired to firebomb a migrant centre.
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
Its not all Macron. We could start by honouring our international obligations and reopen legal routes for people to apply for asylum from all the countries where we have removed it. Resource up the system properly. Rejoin the international community in collectively managing refugees.
In short, the right could grow up. Don't hold your breath.
Oh God, why do we always come back here.
You will never get a hearing for "safe and legal routes" - ever - until you get control of the border. Because otherwise all people will hear is: I want to make it even easier to come here for anyone who wants to come.
Why is this so difficult to understand?
Until we offer a safe and legal route - people will continue to come the illegal way. Only when we have a suitable safe and legal method of applying for residency will the problem be solved.
Heck the fact a lot of the migrants happen to be Albanians who end up working on county lines and similar illegal schemes tells you that no approach is going to 100% work as many peoples desire is to disappear as soon as they arrive in the country. Not even fining employers £x0,000 will solve that side of the issue
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
Its not all Macron. We could start by honouring our international obligations and reopen legal routes for people to apply for asylum from all the countries where we have removed it. Resource up the system properly. Rejoin the international community in collectively managing refugees.
In short, the right could grow up. Don't hold your breath.
Oh God, why do we always come back here.
You will never get a hearing for "safe and legal routes" - ever - until you get control of the border. Because otherwise all people will hear is: I want to make it even easier to come here for anyone who wants to come.
Why is this so difficult to understand?
I understand - are you saying that we *don't* have control of our border right now all these years after we took back control? Why not?
We could choose to staff the Border Agency properly. We don't. We could choose to resource the police properly. We don't. We could choose to have a Navy fit for purpose. We don't. We could choose to staff the Home Office to fact track applications and the courts properly to hear cases. We don't. This government making sovereign choices.
It remains a fact that Afghans cannot apply for asylum legally. So they come on a boat. We can howl at the moon all we like, until we accept the realities of our piss-poor set-up they will continue to come. It is *politics* preventing a solution. Pointing that out is not "oh God why do we always come back here", it is the reality that people refuse to face into.
Awful figures for Labour when they have a 25 point lead in the polls.
Agreed. Punters are clearly sceptical about Starmer.
I'm not a Labour supporter but, if I were, I'd note that the mismatch between polling and betting indicates that, while punters may be sceptical about Starmer, voters aren't. And I'd rather it was that way around.
More realistically, it indicates that punters (probably correctly) believe Sunak is a more credible opponent to Starmer than Truss was, and the 25% lead (more than half of which opened up rather quickly in recent weeks due to consistently appalling news for the Conservatives) is likely to narrow. That isn't a judgment on Starmer as such.
Actually voters are. Votes in local by elections taken in the round do not support the 25 point lead poll respondees give
How is your certain call from last night that Bolsonaro will be re-elected looking?
#theoracleofnorfolk
I was slightly off, he didnt. My failed prediction fortunately has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the facts that data provide however
You weren't 'slightly off', you were completely wrong, predicting the outcome opposite to the actual outcome. Which would have been fine (it happens to us all) except that you predicted it with the certainty of someone forecasting the sun will rise tomorrow.
'The oracle of Norwich' was obviously tongue in cheek, i also confirmed i wasnt making a betting tip, that others are more reliable than me and it was an opinion. A wrong opinion. So im extremely sorry for making an incorrect opinion and for having a bit of fun on a Sunday evening.
There is a full scale political crisis for the home secretary Suella Braverman and new PM Rishi Sunak in the failure to prevent the Manston migrant processing centre being totally overwhelmed by asylum seekers. Here are the important facts. 1/20 https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1587022185633284096
"But October and November are usually months where large numbers of asylum seekers risk their lives crossing the Channel, because many of them do seasonal work on French farms over the summer and then attempt to come to the UK"
Awful figures for Labour when they have a 25 point lead in the polls.
Agreed. Punters are clearly sceptical about Starmer.
I'm not a Labour supporter but, if I were, I'd note that the mismatch between polling and betting indicates that, while punters may be sceptical about Starmer, voters aren't. And I'd rather it was that way around.
More realistically, it indicates that punters (probably correctly) believe Sunak is a more credible opponent to Starmer than Truss was, and the 25% lead (more than half of which opened up rather quickly in recent weeks due to consistently appalling news for the Conservatives) is likely to narrow. That isn't a judgment on Starmer as such.
Actually voters are. Votes in local by elections taken in the round do not support the 25 point lead poll respondees give
How is your certain call from last night that Bolsonaro will be re-elected looking?
#theoracleofnorfolk
I was slightly off, he didnt. My failed prediction fortunately has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the facts that data provide however
You weren't 'slightly off', you were completely wrong, predicting the outcome opposite to the actual outcome. Which would have been fine (it happens to us all) except that you predicted it with the certainty of someone forecasting the sun will rise tomorrow.
He shagged one sheep, give him a break
One? I shag one before breakfast, Malcolm, by evening i've desecrated the flock
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
Its not all Macron. We could start by honouring our international obligations and reopen legal routes for people to apply for asylum from all the countries where we have removed it. Resource up the system properly. Rejoin the international community in collectively managing refugees.
In short, the right could grow up. Don't hold your breath.
Oh God, why do we always come back here.
You will never get a hearing for "safe and legal routes" - ever - until you get control of the border. Because otherwise all people will hear is: I want to make it even easier to come here for anyone who wants to come.
Why is this so difficult to understand?
It's because he does want it to be easier to come here for anyone who wants to come, and in his eyes anyone who disagrees is a racist sneering at "the forrin".
You laughable child. Do try harder. Actually don't, its funny this way.
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
Its not all Macron. We could start by honouring our international obligations and reopen legal routes for people to apply for asylum from all the countries where we have removed it. Resource up the system properly. Rejoin the international community in collectively managing refugees.
In short, the right could grow up. Don't hold your breath.
Oh God, why do we always come back here.
You will never get a hearing for "safe and legal routes" - ever - until you get control of the border. Because otherwise all people will hear is: I want to make it even easier to come here for anyone who wants to come.
Why is this so difficult to understand?
I honestly think this is an unsolvable problem, much like illegal migration to the US through the Mexican border. We can't make coming to the UK unattractive or the journey sufficiently dangerous in order to deter people. Nobody is going to want the sort of police state that would catch enough illegal migrants, and nobody is going to start sinking boats making the crossing.
So we will have tens of thousands of illegal migrants crossing the channel every year. I've not heard of any solution that sounds like it could work. The only thing that would stop illegal crossings is simply throwing the doors wide open for unlimited immigration.
The real solution to the problem comes from another direction: the right deciding that it isn't a wedge issue any more and starting to educate their base about the realities of immigration. And I'm afraid that is unlikely to happen.
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
Its not all Macron. We could start by honouring our international obligations and reopen legal routes for people to apply for asylum from all the countries where we have removed it. Resource up the system properly. Rejoin the international community in collectively managing refugees.
In short, the right could grow up. Don't hold your breath.
Oh God, why do we always come back here.
You will never get a hearing for "safe and legal routes" - ever - until you get control of the border. Because otherwise all people will hear is: I want to make it even easier to come here for anyone who wants to come.
Why is this so difficult to understand?
Until we offer a safe and legal route - people will continue to come the illegal way. Only when we have a suitable safe and legal method of applying for residency will the problem be solved.
Heck the fact a lot of the migrants happen to be Albanians who end up working on county lines and similar illegal schemes tells you that no approach is going to 100% work as many peoples desire is to disappear as soon as they arrive in the country. Not even fining employers £x0,000 will solve that side of the issue
There will be always be a point at which a line will be drawn, however safe and legal the route. That's when more people sill come in illegally and unsafely.
Awful figures for Labour when they have a 25 point lead in the polls.
Agreed. Punters are clearly sceptical about Starmer.
I'm not a Labour supporter but, if I were, I'd note that the mismatch between polling and betting indicates that, while punters may be sceptical about Starmer, voters aren't. And I'd rather it was that way around.
More realistically, it indicates that punters (probably correctly) believe Sunak is a more credible opponent to Starmer than Truss was, and the 25% lead (more than half of which opened up rather quickly in recent weeks due to consistently appalling news for the Conservatives) is likely to narrow. That isn't a judgment on Starmer as such.
Actually voters are. Votes in local by elections taken in the round do not support the 25 point lead poll respondees give
How is your certain call from last night that Bolsonaro will be re-elected looking?
#theoracleofnorfolk
I was slightly off, he didnt. My failed prediction fortunately has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the facts that data provide however
You weren't 'slightly off', you were completely wrong, predicting the outcome opposite to the actual outcome. Which would have been fine (it happens to us all) except that you predicted it with the certainty of someone forecasting the sun will rise tomorrow.
'The oracle of Norwich' was obviously tongue in cheek, i also confirmed i wasnt making a betting tip, that others are more reliable than me and it was an opinion. A wrong opinion. So im extremely sorry for making an incorrect opinion and for having a bit of fun on a Sunday evening.
Awful figures for Labour when they have a 25 point lead in the polls.
Agreed. Punters are clearly sceptical about Starmer.
I'm not a Labour supporter but, if I were, I'd note that the mismatch between polling and betting indicates that, while punters may be sceptical about Starmer, voters aren't. And I'd rather it was that way around.
More realistically, it indicates that punters (probably correctly) believe Sunak is a more credible opponent to Starmer than Truss was, and the 25% lead (more than half of which opened up rather quickly in recent weeks due to consistently appalling news for the Conservatives) is likely to narrow. That isn't a judgment on Starmer as such.
Actually voters are. Votes in local by elections taken in the round do not support the 25 point lead poll respondees give
How is your certain call from last night that Bolsonaro will be re-elected looking?
#theoracleofnorfolk
I was slightly off, he didnt. My failed prediction fortunately has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the facts that data provide however
You weren't 'slightly off', you were completely wrong, predicting the outcome opposite to the actual outcome. Which would have been fine (it happens to us all) except that you predicted it with the certainty of someone forecasting the sun will rise tomorrow.
He shagged one sheep, give him a break
One? I shag one before breakfast, Malcolm, by evening i've desecrated the flock
As long as you don't eat your ovine paramours, you're not completely beyond the pale.
Have to chuckle at the large numbers of people on twitter now saying we must move to Mastodon because Elon, he richest man in the world control this platform, etc etc etc...as if twitter wasn't controlled by very rich people before (and all the other social media platforms are or the Chinese government). Only a few months ago the very same people would claim that Mastodon is a just home for weirdo and conspiracy nuts banned from twitter.
Awful figures for Labour when they have a 25 point lead in the polls.
Agreed. Punters are clearly sceptical about Starmer.
I'm not a Labour supporter but, if I were, I'd note that the mismatch between polling and betting indicates that, while punters may be sceptical about Starmer, voters aren't. And I'd rather it was that way around.
More realistically, it indicates that punters (probably correctly) believe Sunak is a more credible opponent to Starmer than Truss was, and the 25% lead (more than half of which opened up rather quickly in recent weeks due to consistently appalling news for the Conservatives) is likely to narrow. That isn't a judgment on Starmer as such.
Actually voters are. Votes in local by elections taken in the round do not support the 25 point lead poll respondees give
How is your certain call from last night that Bolsonaro will be re-elected looking?
#theoracleofnorfolk
I was slightly off, he didnt. My failed prediction fortunately has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the facts that data provide however
You weren't 'slightly off', you were completely wrong, predicting the outcome opposite to the actual outcome. Which would have been fine (it happens to us all) except that you predicted it with the certainty of someone forecasting the sun will rise tomorrow.
He shagged one sheep, give him a break
One? I shag one before breakfast, Malcolm, by evening i've desecrated the flock
As long as you don't eat your ovine amours, you're not completely beyond the pale.
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
Its not all Macron. We could start by honouring our international obligations and reopen legal routes for people to apply for asylum from all the countries where we have removed it. Resource up the system properly. Rejoin the international community in collectively managing refugees.
In short, the right could grow up. Don't hold your breath.
Oh God, why do we always come back here.
You will never get a hearing for "safe and legal routes" - ever - until you get control of the border. Because otherwise all people will hear is: I want to make it even easier to come here for anyone who wants to come.
Why is this so difficult to understand?
I honestly think this is an unsolvable problem, much like illegal migration to the US through the Mexican border. We can't make coming to the UK unattractive or the journey sufficiently dangerous in order to deter people. Nobody is going to want the sort of police state that would catch enough illegal migrants, and nobody is going to start sinking boats making the crossing.
So we will have tens of thousands of illegal migrants crossing the channel every year. I've not heard of any solution that sounds like it could work. The only thing that would stop illegal crossings is simply throwing the doors wide open for unlimited immigration.
The only way the west can even try and solve this is working together. Until recently the big numbers were from Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan. Places we helped break where no legal route exists. Now it is Albanians. Next month another group.
The west is very attractive to all the poorer more violent places that are not the west. So what are we all going to do about it? Work together? Co-operate? How about make the poor violent places less so?
What is genuinely funny is this Britannia unchained nonsense. That we don't need to co-operate we just need to tell other countries what to do. That the small number we allow in is a much larger burden than the vast numbers in poorer countries like Poland. Until we accept reality we have no hope of resolving this or even starting on the journey to do so.
Awful figures for Labour when they have a 25 point lead in the polls.
Agreed. Punters are clearly sceptical about Starmer.
I'm not a Labour supporter but, if I were, I'd note that the mismatch between polling and betting indicates that, while punters may be sceptical about Starmer, voters aren't. And I'd rather it was that way around.
More realistically, it indicates that punters (probably correctly) believe Sunak is a more credible opponent to Starmer than Truss was, and the 25% lead (more than half of which opened up rather quickly in recent weeks due to consistently appalling news for the Conservatives) is likely to narrow. That isn't a judgment on Starmer as such.
Actually voters are. Votes in local by elections taken in the round do not support the 25 point lead poll respondees give
How is your certain call from last night that Bolsonaro will be re-elected looking?
#theoracleofnorfolk
I was slightly off, he didnt. My failed prediction fortunately has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the facts that data provide however
You weren't 'slightly off', you were completely wrong, predicting the outcome opposite to the actual outcome. Which would have been fine (it happens to us all) except that you predicted it with the certainty of someone forecasting the sun will rise tomorrow.
He shagged one sheep, give him a break
One? I shag one before breakfast, Malcolm, by evening i've desecrated the flock
Impressive! In my experience Sheep tend to wander away from humans walking in their field...
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
Its not all Macron. We could start by honouring our international obligations and reopen legal routes for people to apply for asylum from all the countries where we have removed it. Resource up the system properly. Rejoin the international community in collectively managing refugees.
In short, the right could grow up. Don't hold your breath.
Oh God, why do we always come back here.
You will never get a hearing for "safe and legal routes" - ever - until you get control of the border. Because otherwise all people will hear is: I want to make it even easier to come here for anyone who wants to come.
Why is this so difficult to understand?
I honestly think this is an unsolvable problem, much like illegal migration to the US through the Mexican border. We can't make coming to the UK unattractive or the journey sufficiently dangerous in order to deter people. Nobody is going to want the sort of police state that would catch enough illegal migrants, and nobody is going to start sinking boats making the crossing.
So we will have tens of thousands of illegal migrants crossing the channel every year. I've not heard of any solution that sounds like it could work. The only thing that would stop illegal crossings is simply throwing the doors wide open for unlimited immigration.
The only way the west can even try and solve this is working together. Until recently the big numbers were from Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan. Places we helped break where no legal route exists. Now it is Albanians. Next month another group.
The west is very attractive to all the poorer more violent places that are not the west. So what are we all going to do about it? Work together? Co-operate? How about make the poor violent places less so?
What is genuinely funny is this Britannia unchained nonsense. That we don't need to co-operate we just need to tell other countries what to do. That the small number we allow in is a much larger burden than the vast numbers in poorer countries like Poland. Until we accept reality we have no hope of resolving this or even starting on the journey to do so.
How would you make violent countries less violent?
Have to chuckle at the large numbers of people on twitter now saying we must move to Mastodon because Elon, he richest man in the world control this platform, etc etc etc...as if twitter wasn't controlled by very rich people before (and all the other social media platforms are or the Chinese government). Only a few months ago the very same people would claim that Mastodon is a just home for weirdo and conspiracy nuts banned from twitter.
I strongly doubt you've found "large numbers" of people who talked about Mastodon a few months ago and who are now saying they should move to Mastodon.
The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.
Awful figures for Labour when they have a 25 point lead in the polls.
Agreed. Punters are clearly sceptical about Starmer.
I'm not a Labour supporter but, if I were, I'd note that the mismatch between polling and betting indicates that, while punters may be sceptical about Starmer, voters aren't. And I'd rather it was that way around.
More realistically, it indicates that punters (probably correctly) believe Sunak is a more credible opponent to Starmer than Truss was, and the 25% lead (more than half of which opened up rather quickly in recent weeks due to consistently appalling news for the Conservatives) is likely to narrow. That isn't a judgment on Starmer as such.
Actually voters are. Votes in local by elections taken in the round do not support the 25 point lead poll respondees give
How is your certain call from last night that Bolsonaro will be re-elected looking?
#theoracleofnorfolk
I was slightly off, he didnt. My failed prediction fortunately has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the facts that data provide however
You weren't 'slightly off', you were completely wrong, predicting the outcome opposite to the actual outcome. Which would have been fine (it happens to us all) except that you predicted it with the certainty of someone forecasting the sun will rise tomorrow.
He shagged one sheep, give him a break
One? I shag one before breakfast, Malcolm, by evening i've desecrated the flock
Impressive! In my experience Sheep tend to wander away from humans walking in their field...
I use my Brazilian election prediction powers to guess in advance their movements.
How would you make violent countries less violent?
Whilst simultaneously being broadly non-interventionists. It all boils down to "thoughts and prayers" really. Nobody is proposing anything that will seriously fix the problem.
Listening to Yvette Cooper this morning all I could think was "soon this will be your failure".
Have to chuckle at the large numbers of people on twitter now saying we must move to Mastodon because Elon, he richest man in the world control this platform, etc etc etc...as if twitter wasn't controlled by very rich people before (and all the other social media platforms are or the Chinese government). Only a few months ago the very same people would claim that Mastodon is a just home for weirdo and conspiracy nuts banned from twitter.
I strongly doubt you've found "large numbers" of people who talked about Mastodon a few months ago and who are now saying they should move to Mastodon.
Not Mastodon specifically, but they would complain about all these other social media platforms allowing all the weirdos who were banned from twitter to re-establish a presence. A number of branded social media platforms are just reskinned / built on Mastodon code e.g. Truth Social, Gab...
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
Its not all Macron. We could start by honouring our international obligations and reopen legal routes for people to apply for asylum from all the countries where we have removed it. Resource up the system properly. Rejoin the international community in collectively managing refugees.
In short, the right could grow up. Don't hold your breath.
Oh God, why do we always come back here.
You will never get a hearing for "safe and legal routes" - ever - until you get control of the border. Because otherwise all people will hear is: I want to make it even easier to come here for anyone who wants to come.
Why is this so difficult to understand?
I honestly think this is an unsolvable problem, much like illegal migration to the US through the Mexican border. We can't make coming to the UK unattractive or the journey sufficiently dangerous in order to deter people. Nobody is going to want the sort of police state that would catch enough illegal migrants, and nobody is going to start sinking boats making the crossing.
So we will have tens of thousands of illegal migrants crossing the channel every year. I've not heard of any solution that sounds like it could work. The only thing that would stop illegal crossings is simply throwing the doors wide open for unlimited immigration.
The only way the west can even try and solve this is working together. Until recently the big numbers were from Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan. Places we helped break where no legal route exists. Now it is Albanians. Next month another group.
The west is very attractive to all the poorer more violent places that are not the west. So what are we all going to do about it? Work together? Co-operate? How about make the poor violent places less so?
What is genuinely funny is this Britannia unchained nonsense. That we don't need to co-operate we just need to tell other countries what to do. That the small number we allow in is a much larger burden than the vast numbers in poorer countries like Poland. Until we accept reality we have no hope of resolving this or even starting on the journey to do so.
How would you make violent countries less violent?
Make them less poor. The west has forgiven 2nd and 3rd world debt before. How much is is costing us dealing from the impact of making them dirt poor again? Write it off. And invest in them - how much solar energy could we generate in poor hot countries...?
The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.
Whatever we do to address this situation, it will involve co-operation with France. And the EU. And the Tories can't do that. If only the French government respected the result of the referendum...
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
I think the boats are not the number one political issue for most of the country. If I were Sunak, I'd focus on inflation and the cost of living.
The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.
Alternatively we can accept people will come here and set up processing centres in France to process their applications. Give passage to those approved and those who,don’t, if they come over by other means, just return them.
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
It's really sad, given that most people will never even meet someone who has travelled across the channel in a boat, or have their life affected by them in any meaningful way.
Some of us have met them directly. Many have met them without realising it in our lives, at car washes, or in takeaway vans, barbers or cheaper restaurants, for example.
You could feel a basic level of human sympathy with many of the billions who don't lead as fulfilling lives as we do, or who are far poorer, and also admire their entrepreneurial spirit in getting here and at the same time recognise that we must have border control and restrictions on numbers, which will involve making some choices, or we simply be overwhelmed with all sorts of unpredictable political outcomes.
Anyway, we won't fix this issue on here. Perhaps more relevant is that neither will Braverman. Is the clusterfuck she is in charge of more or less likely to prompt her scapegoated removal as cover for the leaking / security clusterfucks?
The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.
Alternatively we can accept people will come here and set up processing centres in France to process their applications. Give passage to those approved and those who,don’t, if they come over by other means, just return them.
The handwringers will never accept "just returning" anyone, though...
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
Its not all Macron. We could start by honouring our international obligations and reopen legal routes for people to apply for asylum from all the countries where we have removed it. Resource up the system properly. Rejoin the international community in collectively managing refugees.
In short, the right could grow up. Don't hold your breath.
Oh God, why do we always come back here.
You will never get a hearing for "safe and legal routes" - ever - until you get control of the border. Because otherwise all people will hear is: I want to make it even easier to come here for anyone who wants to come.
Why is this so difficult to understand?
I honestly think this is an unsolvable problem, much like illegal migration to the US through the Mexican border. We can't make coming to the UK unattractive or the journey sufficiently dangerous in order to deter people. Nobody is going to want the sort of police state that would catch enough illegal migrants, and nobody is going to start sinking boats making the crossing.
So we will have tens of thousands of illegal migrants crossing the channel every year. I've not heard of any solution that sounds like it could work. The only thing that would stop illegal crossings is simply throwing the doors wide open for unlimited immigration.
The only way the west can even try and solve this is working together. Until recently the big numbers were from Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan. Places we helped break where no legal route exists. Now it is Albanians. Next month another group.
The west is very attractive to all the poorer more violent places that are not the west. So what are we all going to do about it? Work together? Co-operate? How about make the poor violent places less so?
What is genuinely funny is this Britannia unchained nonsense. That we don't need to co-operate we just need to tell other countries what to do. That the small number we allow in is a much larger burden than the vast numbers in poorer countries like Poland. Until we accept reality we have no hope of resolving this or even starting on the journey to do so.
How would you make violent countries less violent?
I would recommend they repeal the second amendment
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
Its not all Macron. We could start by honouring our international obligations and reopen legal routes for people to apply for asylum from all the countries where we have removed it. Resource up the system properly. Rejoin the international community in collectively managing refugees.
In short, the right could grow up. Don't hold your breath.
Oh God, why do we always come back here.
You will never get a hearing for "safe and legal routes" - ever - until you get control of the border. Because otherwise all people will hear is: I want to make it even easier to come here for anyone who wants to come.
Why is this so difficult to understand?
I honestly think this is an unsolvable problem, much like illegal migration to the US through the Mexican border. We can't make coming to the UK unattractive or the journey sufficiently dangerous in order to deter people. Nobody is going to want the sort of police state that would catch enough illegal migrants, and nobody is going to start sinking boats making the crossing.
So we will have tens of thousands of illegal migrants crossing the channel every year. I've not heard of any solution that sounds like it could work. The only thing that would stop illegal crossings is simply throwing the doors wide open for unlimited immigration.
Which was Pretty much New Labour policy and probably will be what labour do in reality without having the backbone to discuss and make the case for the policy. Just demonise any who are not in favour of it.
The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.
We probably want stronger relations with France than Greece has with Turkey, though.
I've got a Greek Cypriot friend whose attitude to the Turks is genuinely frightening. Member of something called "LOK"; his abseil off the Inn Pinn was insane.
The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.
Alternatively we can accept people will come here and set up processing centres in France to process their applications. Give passage to those approved and those who,don’t, if they come over by other means, just return them.
The handwringers will never accept "just returning" anyone, though...
Again with the comedy gold. Deporting illegals is fine. Deporting failed asylum seekers is fine. Removing dangerous criminals who slipped in is fine. Etc. Problem remains that to do so you need to properly resource the Home Office and the Border Agency and the Police and the Courts and people like your good self don't support any of that.
The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.
Alternatively we can accept people will come here and set up processing centres in France to process their applications. Give passage to those approved and those who,don’t, if they come over by other means, just return them.
The handwringers will never accept "just returning" anyone, though...
Again with the comedy gold. Deporting illegals is fine. Deporting failed asylum seekers is fine. Removing dangerous criminals who slipped in is fine. Etc.
Problem remains that to do so you need to properly resource the Home Office and the Border Agency and the Police and the Courts and people like your good self don't support any of that.
Untrue. I would merely ask if you want to increase funding to all those things, what you would cut to pay for it.
The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.
Alternatively we can accept people will come here and set up processing centres in France to process their applications. Give passage to those approved and those who,don’t, if they come over by other means, just return them.
The handwringers will never accept "just returning" anyone, though...
Again with the comedy gold. Deporting illegals is fine. Deporting failed asylum seekers is fine. Removing dangerous criminals who slipped in is fine. Etc. Problem remains that to do so you need to properly resource the Home Office and the Border Agency and the Police and the Courts and people like your good self don't support any of that.
You also don’t want to start from here where there is a 12-18 month backlog of cases
These cases need to be processed in days including all appeals
The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.
Alternatively we can accept people will come here and set up processing centres in France to process their applications. Give passage to those approved and those who,don’t, if they come over by other means, just return them.
The handwringers will never accept "just returning" anyone, though...
Again with the comedy gold. Deporting illegals is fine. Deporting failed asylum seekers is fine. Removing dangerous criminals who slipped in is fine. Etc.
Problem remains that to do so you need to properly resource the Home Office and the Border Agency and the Police and the Courts and people like your good self don't support any of that.
Untrue. I would merely ask if you want to increase funding to all those things, what you would cut to pay for it.
Have we tried voluntary contributions from those who care the most about these things?
The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.
The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.
Alternatively we can accept people will come here and set up processing centres in France to process their applications. Give passage to those approved and those who,don’t, if they come over by other means, just return them.
The handwringers will never accept "just returning" anyone, though...
Again with the comedy gold. Deporting illegals is fine. Deporting failed asylum seekers is fine. Removing dangerous criminals who slipped in is fine. Etc.
Problem remains that to do so you need to properly resource the Home Office and the Border Agency and the Police and the Courts and people like your good self don't support any of that.
Untrue. I would merely ask if you want to increase funding to all those things, what you would cut to pay for it.
Question - how much are we spending from the consequences of *not* having enough staff in the border agency? What is the cost - financial and societal - from not having enough police and a huge backlog in the courts?
The problem with "how do we pay for it" people is that they refuse to accept the reality that spending money preventing something is always cheaper than spending money to clear up the mess if you don't.
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
I think the boats are not the number one political issue for most of the country. If I were Sunak, I'd focus on inflation and the cost of living.
Yep, id agree. I mmean solve it overnight and sure you'd get a boost but the 'all our focus is on' premium is obvs CoL etc.
The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.
Alternatively we can accept people will come here and set up processing centres in France to process their applications. Give passage to those approved and those who,don’t, if they come over by other means, just return them.
The handwringers will never accept "just returning" anyone, though...
Again with the comedy gold. Deporting illegals is fine. Deporting failed asylum seekers is fine. Removing dangerous criminals who slipped in is fine. Etc. Problem remains that to do so you need to properly resource the Home Office and the Border Agency and the Police and the Courts and people like your good self don't support any of that.
You also don’t want to start from here where there is a 12-18 month backlog of cases
These cases need to be processed in days including all appeals
A backlog not just of asylum cases. A general backlog due to the huge cuts in our justice system.
The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.
Alternatively we can accept people will come here and set up processing centres in France to process their applications. Give passage to those approved and those who,don’t, if they come over by other means, just return them.
The handwringers will never accept "just returning" anyone, though...
Again with the comedy gold. Deporting illegals is fine. Deporting failed asylum seekers is fine. Removing dangerous criminals who slipped in is fine. Etc. Problem remains that to do so you need to properly resource the Home Office and the Border Agency and the Police and the Courts and people like your good self don't support any of that.
A bit like what rcs1000 was saying about silver bullets earlier in a different context. A solution can help without being a complete answer.
So spending more to process asylum seekers more quickly is worth doing, as is cooperating more with France, as is getting tougher with black market employers. They will lead to fewer people coming in who shouldn't.
Whereas the Fortress Britain model, which might work if we made the walls high enough, isn't working. And, although I can't prove it, probably can't work with a wall height that the people of the UK would be prepared to accept.
The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.
Alternatively we can accept people will come here and set up processing centres in France to process their applications. Give passage to those approved and those who,don’t, if they come over by other means, just return them.
We have legal routes of migration. If they don't qualify then it's hard no. We need to end the pull factor and make the trip completely uneconomic. A huge crackdown on illegal work, a deal with France to end the boat crossings and ensuring legitimate migrants are given access to legal routes of migration. The default approach should be deportation for all illegal immigrants with no right of appeal and barring that person from ever being able to legally migrate to the UK. Make the cost of illegal immigration extremely high.
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
Its not all Macron. We could start by honouring our international obligations and reopen legal routes for people to apply for asylum from all the countries where we have removed it. Resource up the system properly. Rejoin the international community in collectively managing refugees.
In short, the right could grow up. Don't hold your breath.
Oh God, why do we always come back here.
You will never get a hearing for "safe and legal routes" - ever - until you get control of the border. Because otherwise all people will hear is: I want to make it even easier to come here for anyone who wants to come.
Why is this so difficult to understand?
I honestly think this is an unsolvable problem, much like illegal migration to the US through the Mexican border. We can't make coming to the UK unattractive or the journey sufficiently dangerous in order to deter people. Nobody is going to want the sort of police state that would catch enough illegal migrants, and nobody is going to start sinking boats making the crossing.
So we will have tens of thousands of illegal migrants crossing the channel every year. I've not heard of any solution that sounds like it could work. The only thing that would stop illegal crossings is simply throwing the doors wide open for unlimited immigration.
The only way the west can even try and solve this is working together. Until recently the big numbers were from Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan. Places we helped break where no legal route exists. Now it is Albanians. Next month another group.
The west is very attractive to all the poorer more violent places that are not the west. So what are we all going to do about it? Work together? Co-operate? How about make the poor violent places less so?
What is genuinely funny is this Britannia unchained nonsense. That we don't need to co-operate we just need to tell other countries what to do. That the small number we allow in is a much larger burden than the vast numbers in poorer countries like Poland. Until we accept reality we have no hope of resolving this or even starting on the journey to do so.
I actually agree with you, but you persist in trying to shoehorn in an intemperature Brexit angle on it.
I don't think anyone doubts intergovernmental cooperation is necessary to fix this - unless you are prepared to repel intruders inside your sea borders with brute force, regardless of the consequences - and Brexit has complicated intergovernmental cooperation in this area - particularly with France - but the Dublin convention itself is a canard and would only have dealt with a tiny percentage of the numbers.
Let's not pretend we wouldn't have had this problem had we remained nor that it wouldn't have been equally challenging to solve.
There is a full scale political crisis for the home secretary Suella Braverman and new PM Rishi Sunak in the failure to prevent the Manston migrant processing centre being totally overwhelmed by asylum seekers. Here are the important facts. 1/20 https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1587022185633284096
As there is a very specific and acute Albanian element to this debacle, has the Home Office even reached out to the Albanian government? We could announce a hard line "if you are Albanian we deport you straight back to Tirana" and worry about the legalities later. To do that, the Albanian authorities need to agree to receive their people back.
Have we asked? Or is co-operating with the forrin beneath our newly sovrin Brexity status?
If you spent less time ranting about "forriners" you might know that we have:
Plans to fast-track the removal of Albanian nationals entering the UK via small boat crossings have moved closer after Priti Patel met Albanian police.
Monday’s meeting was part of two days of talks on the sharing of forensics and biometrics to clamp down on anyone entering who has a criminal record in Albania, the Home Office said.
Patel and the Albanian minister for interior affairs, Bledi Çuçi, signed an agreement to tackle criminal gangs trafficking people from the Balkan country across Europe to Calais.
The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.
Alternatively we can accept people will come here and set up processing centres in France to process their applications. Give passage to those approved and those who,don’t, if they come over by other means, just return them.
The handwringers will never accept "just returning" anyone, though...
Again with the comedy gold. Deporting illegals is fine. Deporting failed asylum seekers is fine. Removing dangerous criminals who slipped in is fine. Etc.
Problem remains that to do so you need to properly resource the Home Office and the Border Agency and the Police and the Courts and people like your good self don't support any of that.
Untrue. I would merely ask if you want to increase funding to all those things, what you would cut to pay for it.
Question - how much are we spending from the consequences of *not* having enough staff in the border agency? What is the cost - financial and societal - from not having enough police and a huge backlog in the courts?
The problem with "how do we pay for it" people is that they refuse to accept the reality that spending money preventing something is always cheaper than spending money to clear up the mess if you don't.
This is true, but you run into the Sam Vimes boots problem.
The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.
That's the deal that needs to be struck.
Yes and it has the added bonus for Macron that without the UK being a pull factor for migrants France would also see a huge decrease in transitory migration which we know brings crime and is a huge driver of votes for RN. Everyone wins and we pay for it out of the aid budget. Again, if Andrew Mitchell resigns then so be it. This has gone on long enough and the approach we've taken for the last two years simply hasn't worked.
The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.
Alternatively we can accept people will come here and set up processing centres in France to process their applications. Give passage to those approved and those who,don’t, if they come over by other means, just return them.
The handwringers will never accept "just returning" anyone, though...
Again with the comedy gold. Deporting illegals is fine. Deporting failed asylum seekers is fine. Removing dangerous criminals who slipped in is fine. Etc. Problem remains that to do so you need to properly resource the Home Office and the Border Agency and the Police and the Courts and people like your good self don't support any of that.
A bit like what rcs1000 was saying about silver bullets earlier in a different context. A solution can help without being a complete answer.
So spending more to process asylum seekers more quickly is worth doing, as is cooperating more with France, as is getting tougher with black market employers. They will lead to fewer people coming in who shouldn't.
Whereas the Fortress Britain model, which might work if we made the walls high enough, isn't working. And, although I can't prove it, probably can't work with a wall height that the people of the UK would be prepared to accept.
We could try Fortress Britain. Except that to do so we would need 24 hour patrols in the channel, border guards on Kent and Sussex beaches etc. And the people most against the boat people won't pay for any of that. Just as Trump morons said Mexico should pay for the wall, our morons think France should pay for the tow backs, camps etc.
The solution is what the Greeks do, tow them back to French water. Fuck the international sensibilities, do it enough and they give up just as the Turkey to Greece route is now non functional for people trafficking. If the charity taxi boats don't like it they can lump it. Pay the French whatever it takes to make this happen. Within weeks it would stop being an issue because people won't spend €2000 just to end up back in France.
Alternatively we can accept people will come here and set up processing centres in France to process their applications. Give passage to those approved and those who,don’t, if they come over by other means, just return them.
We have legal routes of migration. If they don't qualify then it's hard no. We need to end the pull factor and make the trip completely uneconomic. A huge crackdown on illegal work, a deal with France to end the boat crossings and ensuring legitimate migrants are given access to legal routes of migration. The default approach should be deportation for all illegal immigrants with no right of appeal and barring that person from ever being able to legally migrate to the UK. Make the cost of illegal immigration extremely high.
Punishments being made stronger don't work if people don't think they'll be caught.
I think the boats are the number one political issue for the conservative base right now, because if not fixed it will splinter to Reform and even Rachel Reeves may outflank.
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
Its not all Macron. We could start by honouring our international obligations and reopen legal routes for people to apply for asylum from all the countries where we have removed it. Resource up the system properly. Rejoin the international community in collectively managing refugees.
In short, the right could grow up. Don't hold your breath.
Oh God, why do we always come back here.
You will never get a hearing for "safe and legal routes" - ever - until you get control of the border. Because otherwise all people will hear is: I want to make it even easier to come here for anyone who wants to come.
Why is this so difficult to understand?
Until we offer a safe and legal route - people will continue to come the illegal way. Only when we have a suitable safe and legal method of applying for residency will the problem be solved.
Heck the fact a lot of the migrants happen to be Albanians who end up working on county lines and similar illegal schemes tells you that no approach is going to 100% work as many peoples desire is to disappear as soon as they arrive in the country. Not even fining employers £x0,000 will solve that side of the issue
There are potentially billions of people who'd like a safe and legal route to come here.
Have to chuckle at the large numbers of people on twitter now saying we must move to Mastodon because Elon, he richest man in the world control this platform, etc etc etc...as if twitter wasn't controlled by very rich people before (and all the other social media platforms are or the Chinese government). Only a few months ago the very same people would claim that Mastodon is a just home for weirdo and conspiracy nuts banned from twitter.
I strongly doubt you've found "large numbers" of people who talked about Mastodon a few months ago and who are now saying they should move to Mastodon.
The possibility of users abandoning the platform isn't a non-issue for Musk, though, and $44bn isn't small change even for him.
If he messes too much with the platform and it becomes a dumpster fire, then those who both find, and make it useful will look for an alternative. It's not impossible that (for example) Reddit might come up with a better interface than they have now, which serves the same purpose.
Awful figures for Labour when they have a 25 point lead in the polls.
Agreed. Punters are clearly sceptical about Starmer.
I'm not a Labour supporter but, if I were, I'd note that the mismatch between polling and betting indicates that, while punters may be sceptical about Starmer, voters aren't. And I'd rather it was that way around.
More realistically, it indicates that punters (probably correctly) believe Sunak is a more credible opponent to Starmer than Truss was, and the 25% lead (more than half of which opened up rather quickly in recent weeks due to consistently appalling news for the Conservatives) is likely to narrow. That isn't a judgment on Starmer as such.
Actually voters are. Votes in local by elections taken in the round do not support the 25 point lead poll respondees give
How is your certain call from last night that Bolsonaro will be re-elected looking?
#theoracleofnorfolk
I was slightly off, he didnt. My failed prediction fortunately has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the facts that data provide however
Oh Wooly! What did I miss? Why are they teasing you so cruelly - philosophically asking “if someone shags just the one sheep, does it really make them a sheepshagger?”
You predicted victory for Tropical Trump? now the legend of The Wooliedamus has been born? 😕
It was a definite politicalbetting event I missed as how close it got. Apparently the Balrog stole the show?
Instead of saying Whose The Daddy, will we go around saying Whose The Balrog? I’m Balrogging this book! They’ve only gone and Balroggered it!
Comments
So has Braverman been breaching those duties?
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/home-secretary-deliberately-allowed-migrant-centre-to-become-overcrowded_uk_635f868ce4b044fae3eb0f55
(In fact, Drakeford is consulting on changes in Wales, including extra bands at the top and abolishing the single person discount, though I suspect he will back down in the end).
The fact remains: Council Tax banding is devolved. Labour & the SNP could do something now, if the will was there.
We don't just have to blame John Major, who left office a quarter of a century ago.
British people are actually quite generous and accommodating - just look at the response to refugees from Hong Kong and Ukraine - but they want control. They hate criminality, queue jumping and people taking the piss and third sector organisations making excuses for it and saying the only issue is we don't make it easier for them. Intergovernmental arrangements are needed with Albania and, quite frankly, we need to make some choices about Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan too - the other big sources of boat passengers.
It really is a totally bubbled conversation and it needs an international solution.
So we create the boat problem by lying to morons that the country is full (it isn't) and that we take lots of refugees (we don't). Even where we clearly need international co-operation they don't. Because their version of Brexit is that we make the rules and should just be allowed to do what we want and tell the forrin what is happening.
You would imagine that Albania would want to bring so many of its own people home. It is no longer the hermit state of old, and when so many people leave you can't regenerate as so many other poor eastern European countries have done. So a deal could be done, surely.
44 Russian missiles out of 50+ were shot down by #Ukraine’s air defence this morning.
Russia launched missiles & drones that hit 10 regions, damaging 18 objects of civilian critical infrastructure.
#RussiaIsATerroristState
#ArmUkraineNow and help us #CloseUAskyNOW
https://twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1587033534224601091
More realistically, it indicates that punters (probably correctly) believe Sunak is a more credible opponent to Starmer than Truss was, and the 25% lead (more than half of which opened up rather quickly in recent weeks due to consistently appalling news for the Conservatives) is likely to narrow. That isn't a judgment on Starmer as such.
And that periodic NI payment is designed to maximize revenue
If I were Rishi Sunak I'd almost be inclined to ask Macron to name his price for stopping them. All of them.
#theoracleofnorfolk
When the jingoistic wing of Tory members want to grow up, I will be able to spell the word properly. Until then its calling out their baseless bigotry.
In short, the right could grow up. Don't hold your breath.
I actually liked your post as I thought it was an interesting comment and I was keen to respond to it. Then you posted this nonsense.
If you continue I will keep scrolling past and ignoring such posts.
Individual results will fall within 'local issues' which is why you take a look in the round which currently suggests Tory vote struggling badly but no obvious enthusiasm for Labour.
Back of the envelope feels like between 2001 and 2005 in results terms, more toward 2001 but not the complete meltdown of the polls
The narrow part of the channel necessitates them targeting a short coastal strip, and the French are still intercepting 45-50%.
With drones and more patrols it could be much improved.
Even better for French flagged boats paid for by Britain with British border force agents to be stationed in French waters to tow them straight back to Calais.
The Ukrainian-Turkish-UN convoy of 14 grain ships has set sail from Odesa, despite Russia’s renewed naval blockade of Ukraine.
Russia hasn’t commented on whether it will try to stop the ships by force.
Looks like the blockade will be broken for good today!
🇺🇦🇹🇷
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1587035746552188929
You will never get a hearing for "safe and legal routes" - ever - until you get control of the border. Because otherwise all people will hear is: I want to make it even easier to come here for anyone who wants to come.
Why is this so difficult to understand?
You may not like me calling out the idiots who voted Brexit because they wanted less foreigners taking the jobs / benefits / school places - I personally don't like the people and their mentality.
Either way, we face it down and engage with it or we're back to scratching our heads as to why we have people firebombing in Dover and an illegal public health crisis at Manston.
Tell you what, I will spell foreign correctly for a while if we can all work out how we move public policy past the bigoted desires of a sizable minority of Tory voters / members who just want asylum seekers to go away and the likes of France to do as we tell them and respect the referendum.
So we will have tens of thousands of illegal migrants crossing the channel every year. I've not heard of any solution that sounds like it could work. The only thing that would stop illegal crossings is simply throwing the doors wide open for unlimited immigration.
Heck the fact a lot of the migrants happen to be Albanians who end up working on county lines and similar illegal schemes tells you that no approach is going to 100% work as many peoples desire is to disappear as soon as they arrive in the country. Not even fining employers £x0,000 will solve that side of the issue
We could choose to staff the Border Agency properly. We don't. We could choose to resource the police properly. We don't. We could choose to have a Navy fit for purpose. We don't. We could choose to staff the Home Office to fact track applications and the courts properly to hear cases. We don't. This government making sovereign choices.
It remains a fact that Afghans cannot apply for asylum legally. So they come on a boat. We can howl at the moon all we like, until we accept the realities of our piss-poor set-up they will continue to come. It is *politics* preventing a solution. Pointing that out is not "oh God why do we always come back here", it is the reality that people refuse to face into.
So im extremely sorry for making an incorrect opinion and for having a bit of fun on a Sunday evening.
The west is very attractive to all the poorer more violent places that are not the west. So what are we all going to do about it? Work together? Co-operate? How about make the poor violent places less so?
What is genuinely funny is this Britannia unchained nonsense. That we don't need to co-operate we just need to tell other countries what to do. That the small number we allow in is a much larger burden than the vast numbers in poorer countries like Poland. Until we accept reality we have no hope of resolving this or even starting on the journey to do so.
Listening to Yvette Cooper this morning all I could think was "soon this will be your failure".
You could feel a basic level of human sympathy with many of the billions who don't lead as fulfilling lives as we do, or who are far poorer, and also admire their entrepreneurial spirit in getting here and at the same time recognise that we must have border control and restrictions on numbers, which will involve making some choices, or we simply be overwhelmed with all sorts of unpredictable political outcomes.
I've got a Greek Cypriot friend whose attitude to the Turks is genuinely frightening. Member of something called "LOK"; his abseil off the Inn Pinn was insane.
These cases need to be processed in days including all appeals
$20 a month to keep my blue check? Fuck that, they should pay me. If that gets instituted, I’m gone like Enron.
https://twitter.com/StephenKing/status/1587042605627490304
Still think it a good idea, Robert ?
The problem with "how do we pay for it" people is that they refuse to accept the reality that spending money preventing something is always cheaper than spending money to clear up the mess if you don't.
So spending more to process asylum seekers more quickly is worth doing, as is cooperating more with France, as is getting tougher with black market employers. They will lead to fewer people coming in who shouldn't.
Whereas the Fortress Britain model, which might work if we made the walls high enough, isn't working. And, although I can't prove it, probably can't work with a wall height that the people of the UK would be prepared to accept.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/gps-tagging-migrants-psychological-torture-says-report/ar-AA13yQYx?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=6eb4f86ddf0149f1a1b483fc2d207fd8
I don't think anyone doubts intergovernmental cooperation is necessary to fix this - unless you are prepared to repel intruders inside your sea borders with brute force, regardless of the consequences - and Brexit has complicated intergovernmental cooperation in this area - particularly with France - but the Dublin convention itself is a canard and would only have dealt with a tiny percentage of the numbers.
Let's not pretend we wouldn't have had this problem had we remained nor that it wouldn't have been equally challenging to solve.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/aug/30/priti-patel-meets-albanian-police-over-fast-track-removal-plan
Plans to fast-track the removal of Albanian nationals entering the UK via small boat crossings have moved closer after Priti Patel met Albanian police.
Monday’s meeting was part of two days of talks on the sharing of forensics and biometrics to clamp down on anyone entering who has a criminal record in Albania, the Home Office said.
Patel and the Albanian minister for interior affairs, Bledi Çuçi, signed an agreement to tackle criminal gangs trafficking people from the Balkan country across Europe to Calais.
Would you admit them all?
If he messes too much with the platform and it becomes a dumpster fire, then those who both find, and make it useful will look for an alternative.
It's not impossible that (for example) Reddit might come up with a better interface than they have now, which serves the same purpose.
You predicted victory for Tropical Trump? now the legend of The Wooliedamus has been born? 😕
It was a definite politicalbetting event I missed as how close it got. Apparently the Balrog stole the show?
Instead of saying Whose The Daddy, will we go around saying Whose The Balrog?
I’m Balrogging this book!
They’ve only gone and Balroggered it!